Consider This from NPR - Could next week's elections predict the political future?

Episode Date: October 31, 2025

Voters head to the polls next week in California, Virginia and New Jersey among other states. Senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro explain what they are watching in these elections — and what voters’ choices might say about the political moment.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] episode was produced by Kai McNamee and Connor Donevan.It was edited by Kelsey Snell, Ben Swasey, Jeanette Woods and Courtney Dorning.Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Polls can be wrong. Sometimes very wrong as anyone who followed the 2016 presidential election knows. Respondents can hide their true feelings. Important groups of voters might not respond at all. That's why the gold standard for anyone reading political tea leaves is an election. But the midterms are still a long way away. And so instead, you see an intense focus on the few elections that are happening, whether it's special elections to fill house seats in Florida. In both these areas, in both these congressional districts, Trump won by plus 31 points, right? So they essentially cut into that, half that amount. Or a Wisconsin Supreme Court election?

We hesitate to read too much into one night in Wisconsin in an off year. But what does it tell you so far in these early days of the Trump administration? Everyone is looking for potential national implications in each off-year race, down to a state Senate seat for Sioux City. This morning, a Democratic victory in Iowa is giving that party a glimpse of hope, maybe a rare glimpse of hope, as the country moves toward the midterms. Consider this. Next week brings another big batch of state and local elections. What can they and can't they tell us about the 2026 midterms?

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which led to the center of the debate on capital punishment. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. It's Consider This from NPR. Voters head to the polls next week in California, Virginia, and New Jersey, among other states. We've asked senior national political correspondent Mara Liason and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro to help explain what they're watching in these elections and what voters' choices might say about the political moment. Hi guys. Hi there. So I just want to start with two really big governor's races.

There's one in New Jersey and also one in Virginia. Marr, I'll start with you. Why are Republicans and Democrats both watching these races so closely? Well, one reason is because they're the only races, but also because historically they have been a harbinger, a kind of canary in the coal mine. They have often predicted the results of upcoming midterms, especially how bad a shalacking the party in power will take. But, of course, historical rules only work till they stop working. And Democrats are very unpopular right now. But on the other hand, in Virginia in particular, there are hundreds of thousands of federal workers who have been affected by the shutdown and by layoffs in the federal government. Yeah, in Virginia, you know, 11 of the last 12 governor's races have gone to the party that's out of power in the White House. So the party that's opposite of the president.

Right now, obviously Trump is in the White House. Democrats are feeling good about their chances in a state like Virginia. And off-year elections are often, you know, the first chance for voters aligned with the party out of power to register their frustration. You know, Trump's approval is low. Virginia and New Jersey are states that lean Democratic and Democrats are favored, like I said. But the narrative is really important here, given that these are the first elections and there's a shutdown. There certainly would be a lot of pressure on, you know, Republicans or even Democrats, you know, depending on how, you know, these races go. And then on the other side of the country, there is another election that we've all been watching.

really closely. That's in California, and it is not about a single politician. This is about redrawing congressional lines in that state. Dominico, just tell us briefly, what are they considering? Look, this is really about control of the House. It might be the most important election on Tuesday. It's about how California draws its districts. Right now, it's mandated the state to draw them by an independent commission. And on the ballot is Proposition 50, which would temporarily get rid of that requirement. You know, this is all in response to President Trump asking Texas to try and squeeze out five more Republican seats and try and sure up control of the House for the GOP next year. And trying to counterbalance that effort, California Governor Gavin Newsom is trying to squeeze out more Democratic

seats, but he needs voters statewide to vote in favor of Prop 50. And it's really a redistricting arms race that's been set off all over the country. I mean, Mara, we have been talking just so much about redistricting all across this country. So I wonder this specific ballot measure in California, is it more significant than the others we've been talking about? Or is there something bigger happening there? Well, the answer is yes and yes. In other words, California is more significant because it's a big state and it has more opportunities for Democrats to carve out some more Democratic-leaning seats. But redistricting in general is the big story of the midterms. And the big question is which force is going to be more powerful? The kind of historical repudiation of the party

in power, remember back in 2018, Donald Trump's first midterm, he and his party lost 40 seats in the House. Or will the structural advantages that Republicans have, particularly in redistricting help them overcome that voter rejection. Right now, more Republican states have trifectas, in other words, a Republican in the governor's mansion and Republicans controlling the state legislatures. That gives them a lot more opportunity to gerrymander. Plus, Republican voters are just more efficiently distributed throughout the heartland. Democrats are more inefficiently masked for electoral purposes on the coasts and around metro areas, and it just makes them much easier to gerrymander. Look, we are in a really volatile era. You know, we've seen the most

flips of control of the House in the last 20 years since the years just after the Civil War, since Reconstruction. You know, it's the only other time we've seen it go back and forth as much as it has, and that's because the margins right now really matter. They're narrower than they ever have been. Just three seats right now is what separates Democrats and Republicans, what Democrats would need to win. And historically, midterms are not good for the President's Party. The House is ripe for the taking. Trump's approval ratings are low, especially with independents who are so key in those swing districts. So in one respect, the Democrats would have to be, and I say this as a Mets fan, the New York Mets of politics, not to get the House back. But Democrats are having issues with

progressives in their own base who don't exactly love Democratic leadership right now. So a lot at stake and a lot to happen here. There is also a really big mayoral race that we have to talk about. It is really likely that Zoran Mondani will be elected the next mayor of New York City. And Republicans, they're really trying to make him a far-left poster child for the entire Democratic Party. How successful can they really be, though? Republicans are very confident that they will be successful in making Mom Doni into a kind of far-left extremist boogeyman hanging around the neck of Democrats. But Mamdani has some control over that. The question is, how will he govern New York if he's elected? Will he address voters' number one concern, which is public safety, but also

deliver on his affordability agenda for transportation and rent and child care? I mean, we'll see if he can govern New York, make it safer and more affordable to live there? Yeah, I think this is all about democratic messaging after 2025. You know, Mamdani has been really focused on affordability, freezing rent, making faster buses, universal child care in the city. But how he governs, like Mara said, is going to be key because if he's successful, then I think you're going to see a lot more Democrats being able to jump on board that agenda. But if he's not, I think you're going to see them sort of shirk away and take more of the approach that some of these candidates who come across as more reserved and more centrist, quote-unquote, in these Virginia and New Jersey

races. That is NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro and senior national political correspondent Mara Liason. Thanks to both of you. Thank you. You're welcome. Before we go, a quick thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the show. Your contribution makes it possible for NPR journalists all around the world to do their jobs. Supporters also get to hear every episode with no-sponsor messages. Learn more at plus.npr.org. This episode was produced by Kai McNamey and Connor Donovan. It was edited by Kelsey Snell, Ben Swayze, Jeanette Woods, and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers. This message comes from the financial times.

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