Move The Line - Best 2026 NFL Futures Bets: Win Totals, Player Props & Awards

Episode Date: September 8, 2026

With the 2026 NFL regular season about to begin, Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen take one final look at the futures board. They break down their favorite win totals, season-long player props, and awards ...bets, highlighting where value remains before Week 1 kicks off.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansCirca Sports Survivor and Circa Million, $30 million guaranteed: http://circasports.com/contestsWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:10 Hello and welcome to move of line presented by Circus Sports. Ryan Nune and joined here as always by Connor Allen. We're here. Offseason's been long. It's been a grind. It's like a longer offseason than normal. But we're almost here at this point recording on a Monday afternoon, about 48 hours away from the NFL football.
Starting point is 00:00:28 Connor, what's going on? Yeah, and how much? We have a bunch of futures to talk about today. Just things that maybe we didn't push out officially. Some things changed throughout the offseason. Obviously, maybe things we touched on didn't have as strong of a take. But now I have a little bit of a strong. longer taking into week one.
Starting point is 00:00:42 A couple of random solo book props that are awesome. Just like we've been trying to get down as much as we can on them. So we'll definitely touch on those. And yeah, a lot of really good stuff, I think. Yeah, just to kind of put a bow on all things, preseason futures awards, full season props today. Just for the cadence of the show for the season, we're coming up. Typically, we'll have a show on Mondays.
Starting point is 00:01:05 Mondays will do a little bit of Sharpstack. We'll take a look at the Monday night football game, see if we can pick off any operative. opportunities through our Sharpstack. And then Wednesday, Connor and I will come by. I think it'll probably be a little bit like surca heavy. We'll probably talk more Survivor than we've ever had before. We'll talk about our millions picks.
Starting point is 00:01:23 We'll go, you know, sides and totals, get more like, you know, football thoughts. And then prop drop, as always, the return to high slop, Connor, myself, Slop on Friday afternoons. Again, move the line where we listen to podcast, move the line on YouTube as well. For all of those, subscribe, rate and review. thumbs up all those things we appreciate those things greatly support the show i cannot wait to be back in the cadence of of that checking in with slop and see how his home run parleyes have been going all summer um you know get him to uh he did tell us that he was going to um look at the games before the show this year so i'm really excited about what's going on with slot this year
Starting point is 00:02:02 it's not going to just be like hit record and then look at you know think of a couple of tight ends that are out there be good it's going to be awesome. I'm excited. This Friday, it's going to be great. I'm hyped. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:02:18 So like Connor said, this is just basically like three season future dump. All the things that we've talked about, everything is things that we've maybe teased. Connor said we have a couple of solo book bangers that we're really excited to get out. So maybe, I don't say like a prop draft per se, but just going to probably go back and forth,
Starting point is 00:02:37 rapid fire. I got a lot. I fire my list over to Connor today. and, you know, it was not a PG reaction. So I think I pressed him to make sure he got a lot of stuff out here for the show today. So I think I have a little bit more. I got some team level stuff, some player level stuff, some award stuff too. So we're kind of all over the board.
Starting point is 00:02:56 So I'm going to give you the four first though, Connor. Get a starter. Take us wherever you want to go. There's no organization here. We're just firing bets. This is just mass dropping of bets. Yeah, this is great. All right.
Starting point is 00:03:07 So first one, I think it's got to say on brand here. dolphins to be the worst team in the league, plus 300, plus 312 right now in Calci you can get, again, two things working on our favor here. Love that you're getting on a prediction market so you could always get out of it if for some reason, like, it's them and the Cardinals and they're both, you know, running close to evenish somewhere around there towards the end. You do as you get out of your position and double your money towards the end if you think that the dolphins are playing better. But continuously, all the off-season drum beat has been the Dolphins offense stinks. the Dolphins, and the Dolvin's offense has stunk against the Dolphins defense, which also stinks. In joint practices, they've gotten their butts kicked. Ryan Pagnetti, that guy on Twitter has been, like, you know, tracking all the joint practices
Starting point is 00:03:52 and beat writer sentiment and everything like that said that they've lost basically every joint practice that they've had at this point. And so, I mean, again, it's not surprising. Their old line is terrible. Malik Willis was good for 60 past attempts in Green Bay on a good offense with good receivers. with a great coach. Their number one and two receivers are Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas. The 22 Outwell didn't even make the roster.
Starting point is 00:04:19 That's how bad that was. Like, there's just no positives for me besides Devon H.N. That's it. And so, and the coaching staff, honestly, Jacob Rodriguez. Jacob Rodriguez. There you got. Jacob Rodriguez.
Starting point is 00:04:32 Not impressed with coaching staff either. So, yeah, worst team in the league. Schedule is tough. Cardinals are definitely a better team than them. Like they are absolutely better team than them. They just play a harder schedule. So again, that's why they're not the favorites. Cardinals are favorites.
Starting point is 00:04:46 Dolphins are second. Jets are third. I think this is like a legit two-man race. I would be really surprised if it's not one of the Cardinals or dolphins here. Yeah, I agree. I agree that the Cardinals are better. I agree that like the Browns are better. Like there's some teams that I think that we both agree that are not very good football teams,
Starting point is 00:05:03 but I think we think that they're that they're better than the dolphins for sure. So I'm with you. I'm going to pivot. I was going to start somewhere else, but you kind of team me up here. This is a Fandall. And I was digging around trying to mess around with some of my, like, Honor Allen specials where you could, like, Fandall gives you the ability to like, you could partly obviously division winners, but they offer pricing for every position.
Starting point is 00:05:29 So every team to finish first, second, third, fourth, in the division. But I kind of agree that it's really clean. It's probably the cleanest of the bunch. I we've gone back and forth in the Jets. I don't think that the Jets are like a playoff team. I don't think they're going to be awful per se, but they're not sniff in Buffalo, New England,
Starting point is 00:05:49 and we both kind of are back and forth on who we think wins that division. You know, I think it's more of a coin toss than the market says. But I don't think the Jets are going to be really in much danger at all to finish worse than Miami. So Fandul, Fandul only, Fandle has the Jets third in the division, plus 100, straight up.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Again, kind of a wonky one because it's a singular book. Not everyone offers these. I think you bet 365 offers something similar if you have that. But obviously not widely available. But again, like, just you start to think about through some of the other divisions. Like, you know, there's some teams I think we think could finish. Like the Bengals can finish first so they can finish third in that division. Like there's just a bunch of like situations like that where like you could sell me on Jacksonville or the Colts.
Starting point is 00:06:34 Like, you know, the range of outcomes for those are a little bit more, I would say vast. than this for the Jets, who I don't think are one or two in that division, and I don't think they're fourth. So you give me plus 100, Fandul, Jets to finish third. I like it quite a bit. Kind of goes standing there with your mind me.
Starting point is 00:06:49 Yeah, it feels pretty clear. I like that. I mean, I think it would be the only downside of the Jets is maybe if, like, Gino Smith really sucks, or Aaron Glenn is just a lame duck coach. Both of those are possible, but even then, I think they're still going to be better. I think those are both on the table, for sure.
Starting point is 00:07:05 Yeah, but they're both better than the dolphin. Like still in those scenarios, we're in the lens of lame duck coach. Gino sucks. They put in Cade Clubneck. He's probably going to be, I think, okay. Like, I think he'll be like fine or at least fun. And their schedule is easier than the dolphins.
Starting point is 00:07:20 So I think they play an easier, unique three than they do. So, yeah, it's just tough run. Yeah, it's tough. So, yeah, kind of start with the AFC East there. What else you got? Yeah. So I think that's kind of a fun one. Commanders under seven and a half is a good one, I think.
Starting point is 00:07:44 This team is just really collapsing on the offensive line. Some B reporters are saying this is the worst offense that they've seen since they've been covering the commanders. And not just offensive line, worst offense. David Blow, there's a lot of off-season hype about him taking over and putting a lot of more under center stuff. and I don't know, being kind of like a touched, you know, rubbed elbows with some like, you know, good coaches and he's going to be a good coach. I'm very much more in the, I'll believe when I see it if you don't have an offensive line and you have a quarterback coming off an injury and two good receivers who are just, I get kind of the wrong side of the age curve at this point, specifically Diggs. I think there's just a lot of downside with this team here. And it wins a lot.
Starting point is 00:08:30 Like you got to be at least an average to above average team. We talked about it when Jane Daniels was a rookie. Like the situation was not super well set up for him to succeed. And he carried the team on his back and they were good. It just happens. It has to happen again here. That's that in my mind is how they end up being average to above average. And I, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:08:50 He lost a little luster, a bit of luster last year and was injured and banged up. And I think that that's, again, very much on the table. I think that can weigh on you. So as long as that doesn't happen, I think under seven and a half is pretty good look. It's a team that we both liked a little bit when we did the NFC East, and it's only gotten worse. Like we talked about doing a show where like, you know, what opinions have changed since we did our divisional preview series. And like the commanders would have probably been in the top of list for both of us. It's a team that I think we've definitely cooled on.
Starting point is 00:09:20 I thought there was some upside with like all that they did to invest in the defense. And then, you know, again, the offensive line looked okay. And like there was a lot of encouraging signs where there was going to be Diggs or Brandon Ayyuk or like, something to kind of solidify the past catching core. And yeah, it's been mostly, it's been mostly negative news. So I'm kind of with you. It's definitely a team that's out on. To the schedule is just like crazy.
Starting point is 00:09:42 At Philly, at Dallas, against Seattle, against the Colts who I'm much higher on. The Giants, I mean, again, that's like a first, I'd say like more, like they're favorite in that game. And then at San Francisco. So, and then they have their buy. That is very possible to start one in five or oh and six heading into their buy, which that has like massive impacts we've seen on other teams too. Like if you're that bad heading into the buy, like if you're banged up,
Starting point is 00:10:10 maybe you're not coming back early, you know, that quick or, you know, things, things get wonky when that happens and like kind of the bottom can fall out from some of these teams. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:10:18 they're fragile anyway. It's a fragile quarterback situation. That was kind of the knocking concern about him coming out in general was just his ability to stay healthy and stay on the field. So, um, a little bit more positive. I'm,
Starting point is 00:10:29 I really liked Houston when we did our divisional preview series, and I've kind of soured a little bit. I'm less optimistic on Jacksonville and Indy than I was when we did the AFC South stuff. And I like Houston. Houston plus 110 to win the South widely available line. I'm just like this football team. I'm kind of buying everything that's going on there. And again, the Jacksonville stuff, another team with a brutal schedule, brutal travel,
Starting point is 00:10:58 they literally play six home games all season long in Jacksonville because they give two up for you know for travel overseas it's a it's just kind of it's tough and again there's just a lot of offensive line issues that we've heard there last year defensively I think that they a lot of smoke and mirrors like they were good against the run but there was so much turnover variance that went in their way that swung games for them I you know I like a lot of like offensive pieces they're encouraging but like just in general I think there's some stuff here where this could fall down a little bit. So I'll go two for here.
Starting point is 00:11:31 I'll go AFC South, Houston, plus 110, and I'll take Jags under eight and a half wins at plus 115. Plus 110, 115 is pretty widely available. So Coltsum kind of in the middle of pack. I wish they would have kind of a clean drop season because I was with you as them being more of a fun-escending team. But I think they're probably a seven-nine-win football team, and it's probably not enough to snatch the division from the Texans.
Starting point is 00:11:57 Up on the Texas to win the division, down on the Jags under eight and a half. All right. Well, so that's funny because I had Colts plus 435 at Circa, our show sponsor, to win the division. I think that's a really good price. I like the Colts. I do like the Colts. I think the addition of sauce was great. Alec Pierce is healthy as of today.
Starting point is 00:12:16 He said he's going to play week one. They added Keenan Allen. They have Josh Downs, Tyler Warren. This is an offense that led the league in points to the last 10 weeks for the first 10 weeks last season. they were 8 and 2 or something with Daniel Jones healthy. They were beating good defenses. Their schedule is really tough at first, Baltimore, Casey, Houston, but then you get Washington, Pittsburgh, Tennessee.
Starting point is 00:12:36 You have another stretch later on in the season where you have Tennessee and Cleveland in the last four weeks. Like, they have to win, obviously, big games. But I think that there's, again, like, they were beating good teams last year when they're healthy. Yep. And Daniel Jones has played all offseason. been practicing since July, like first week of July. He's been, you know, full go, quote.
Starting point is 00:13:00 So I don't know. I kind of think. And then, you know, you're a, you're a Shane Stuyken bowl from day one, I think, you know, this can't be the time that you turn on him. You know, this can't be the time. This is, this is the time to buy low. It's not a Colts under. It was a Jags under. Yeah, yeah. And Houston is still very good. It was a typical thing, right? Yeah. Yeah. It's because what, seven and a half is the, the wind total? on the Colts? Yeah, I think it's been like, it's seven and a half leaning over
Starting point is 00:13:29 or eight and a half leaning on there, basically has been the, um, odds. Yeah. Yeah, I don't hate it north of four to one. No problem with it. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:13:45 I think that there's, you know, I think that there's, again, you know, the fan to a parlay situation, you know, Texans,
Starting point is 00:13:51 Colts, jags, um, Titans, like, you know, could sell me on that. You know,
Starting point is 00:13:56 you're probably getting too cute. But these are, It's fun to make before the season starts, right? Like think about what you think of the division. You can, you know, put low stakes on for a little bit. Those are fun parlayes because they, you know, they're obviously correlated. So, yeah, I think the range, I could see the Colts being the last playoff team in the AFC.
Starting point is 00:14:14 I could see them, you know, maybe struggling to stay healthy and things get a little bit wonky and Pierce isn't really healthy and Keynes maybe washed. Downs doesn't stay healthy. And it just, that's just 15 targets per game for Tyler Warren until he falls apart. And they're a seven-win team. Like, you know, I love Tyler Warren. I think he's a stud. So, yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:33 I like that. I like that. Yeah, so you have the price. Four to one, I think, is interesting. Yeah. I'm going to take you out west. I'm really surprised this price is where it is. Denver.
Starting point is 00:14:48 Bronco country hanging behind you. Plus 220 to win the division. It's just too much love for, A really tough schedule for the Chargers. And I think a lot of, very fair question marks for the Chiefs. Now, again, I think the Chargers and the Chiefs are very good. But I don't have questions about who the Broncos are, if they're going to be good. Like, I don't have questions about any of that.
Starting point is 00:15:13 Same thing. Bonix has been playing from the jump, like, better than 2 to 1 to win the division. Like continuity on both sides of the ball. They probably the best, I don't know, maybe outside of Philly, like just the best, like, French units on both sides of the ball. they're going to be able to get a ton of pressure, great horse, depth everywhere. They get Jalen Waddle, who I think is going to be awesome for them for as long as he could stay healthy too. Better than 2 to 1 on Denver to win the division, who I think is a legit 9 to 1 to win the NFC. I think is also a pretty good luck.
Starting point is 00:15:46 I'm in on Denver. I like Denver better than 2 to 1 to win the West. I fully agree with you. I have them in my Super Bowl as the AFC contender. I don't know. We're going to go through that at the end. Do you have that as well? I don't know the same Super Bowl team last year.
Starting point is 00:16:01 It didn't work very well for those teams. It did not work well. We were both on the Ravens or something like that. It's completely backfired on us. Ravens Packers. What's up? We were both Ravens Packers, weren't we? I think so, yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:15 And both teams face planet. Well, that sucks. Do you have them this year, I'm assuming, too? You have them in the AFC. You have them written down? I definitely have him in the AFC championship game. All right. We'll get there when we get there.
Starting point is 00:16:33 But yeah, I like them a lot. I'm a big fan for all the reasons you mentioned. And I think Sean Payton is a douchebag, but a very good coach. So he wins games. They have awesome offenses no matter who's out there. Also, Pat Bryant is like ascending. He was awesome in college. Pretty good as a rookie.
Starting point is 00:16:51 He started seeing more work down the line, got injured. Now they just say he's going to be a big part of the offense. Like, I'm a fan. man it's way too cheap in fantasy still to the to the wire like still yeah he's great super late yeah like that one that's similar for me that was uh well no i'll get you i just gave you Denver um yeah yeah well do you want to go to players or you want to still keep ripping teams i have i got a couple more team things all right you go let's go team stuff first you can rip some off i got a bunch a couple players too okay um one i consider it in the same vein basically as you did with
Starting point is 00:17:26 the Colts. I think anything that's like, you know, close to 5 to 1 on Minnesota to win the NFC North, I think is more than fair. But my favorite play for them is just over 8 and a half wins and minus 120. You can find minus 115 out there and some softer books too. I see Minnesota is a good football team. That division is really hard. Like, I want to be down in the Bears like you are in the sense that there's just like
Starting point is 00:17:48 some of the stuff last year was insane. And like the turnover variance and the turnover is on defense. and the secondary questions that I think are very, very real that they're going to have to answer. I still think the Bears are going to be a really good team. But I also think Minnesota is a good football team, a really good roster. And it's really just like a playoff caliber roster if they answer a quarterback. And Tyler's been pretty underwhelming at times, but also like win-kept clean, you know, with good weapons. It's got teams of the playoffs before.
Starting point is 00:18:22 And again, this team won nine games last year, rolled out JJ for a bunch, rolled out Max Brosmer for a game or two, was not pretty. There's a lot of upside, I think, on Minnesota. So Minnesota over and a half, which kind of correlates with one I think you'll also probably like. Packers, plus 100 to not make the playoffs. Flat up, straight, don't make the playoffs. Again, they could probably win nine games. I don't think the Packers are going to face plan. I don't think the Packers are going to be a bad team.
Starting point is 00:18:51 but they're thin defensively. They're thiner than you think. They're thin on the back end. They start the season, thin up front. I think they're going to have a hard time generating pass rush. Roshan Gary's in Dallas. And Michael Parsons is not playing for at least the first, you know, five weeks or so. So it's going to be tough.
Starting point is 00:19:11 Like Lucas Van Nesson is going to have to be like a guy for them. And he's been kind of an air ball since he's been in a league. So just have more questions than answers. if you were going to tell me like, hey, they're going to be able to figure it out and run the football and control the game with Josh Jacobs. Okay, probably would have pulled holes in that. But now they don't even have that as an option. Offensive line issues. They're just, it's just kind of a fragile team.
Starting point is 00:19:32 I like Jordan Love. I like the coaching staff. Again, I think they're going to be competitive. They'll win games. They're going to beat good teams. But to make the playoffs, I think they're on the wrong side of it. So, and a plus 100, I think that's more than fair. So any thoughts on Packers there?
Starting point is 00:19:47 well I think specifically the Vikings are a team that I'm going to be watching week one just to see head to head we're going to get a gauge right I think know fairly quickly in the season whether or not kailor is it maybe it's week one against packers you know I think we'll know within a couple weeks and just see how the offense functions because it felt like pretty early on with j jay jay mccarthy we knew things that were just not going to work and we you know you can just see it when when you're in kevin er in uh the offense ohconnell's offense sometimes it's clicks. Quarterbacks are hitting open guys.
Starting point is 00:20:19 They're in rhythm. It's making sense. And sometimes guys like JJ McCarthy, it's just something feels off. And it never really looks right outside of the one quarter against Chicago. It never looks right. And so I think we'll know. And if Kyler's hitting his stride,
Starting point is 00:20:33 I think it's time to move on Minnesota quickly and adjust quickly. If he's not, then I wouldn't say necessarily adjust downward. I think they're priced closer to their floor than their ceiling. But probably a slight downgrade, to be honest, because they just don't, they don't have any other options. It's either JJ or him, and we know JJ's, we're pretty sure JJ's not the answer.
Starting point is 00:20:53 Look, we're not going to know how a full season is going to play out after one week, but I feel pretty good about if Vikings over eight and a half, Packers to miss the playoffs on, you know, Sunday afternoon, right? Yeah. Also, the Vikings are favored, right? Yeah, it's shifted. Yeah. They went from them being one and a half point dogs to one and a half.
Starting point is 00:21:15 point favorite so not not nothing my last team take uh which you know we'll see in some other areas is one of the teams i've warmed up probably the most since we started and it was the first division we started with as i've really warmed up to dallas um never been a dallas guy um it's not been a bell i've rung very often but just another spot where like the vibes are pretty high um and there's a lot to like like that is like i'm just talking about like a historically bad defense who made wholesale changes, brought in a new defensive coordinator, a ton of new talent, and have an offense that was like pretty insane at times last year.
Starting point is 00:21:56 Now, again, they were kind of forced to be to even be in contention of some games, but like all the parts are still there. So over nine and a half wins, plus 100. It's available on draft kings for the Cowboys to be. Again, they're going to make, I think they're a playoff team. I like them. I like Philly. So like it's hard for me to like take the two to one or so on to Dallas to win the
Starting point is 00:22:15 division. So, you know, in Dallas is like minus 130 or so to make the playoffs. So just give me 10 wins at plus 100s. I think the best way to go about it again, unless you're down on Philly, which I'm not, you know, I don't want to kind of go head to head. But I think you can like mess around with like Philly to win the division, Dallas second, Dallas to win the division Philly second and get better prices on that too, if that's your thing if you're kind of down on the commanders and giants.
Starting point is 00:22:41 Yeah, I think that both Philly and Dallas are a good bit better. than the other two. So yeah, I agree with you there. I think they're going to be a contention for the division. Definitely the defensive moves are awesome too. We talk about basically all the time. Quentin Williams made a big difference right away for them up front with their run defense. And exactly like CINC, you get a couple of things to make their defense okay,
Starting point is 00:23:04 and it makes a dramatic difference for the offense and just the entire team. So, yeah, I think that they're very squarely in play to win, I don't know, nine to 12 games, I think, this season. Yeah, I think they're going to be, yeah, I think it'll be fun. I think they play, had to head on Thanksgiving or so. We get some good Thanksgiving, some good island games. They went heavy this year. Yeah, and we can say with the Cowboys because one of my first player alts.
Starting point is 00:23:29 I did, so I don't release these, but these are things that I like. And so a guy that I think it was a little bit murky in the off season, but things cleared up very nicely for him would be Javante Williams. You can get him 1,000 yards and 1250 yards, both on Fandul at plus 115 and plus 340. He hit 12-100 rushing yards last year. They cut Jaden Blue after a whole off-season saying he was going to play some role. They just got rid of him. Then they have some bum, Malik Davis behind him. I think Javante is going to see the Lions' Lions share the work on a team that's going to be great, better defense, as you mentioned, schedules nice. Like he's just basically
Starting point is 00:24:07 a Belkeau. So like things of, like the pathways have cleared for him before the season. The guy that I wasn't ecstatic to draft a fantasy or I'm not, you know, running into week one necessarily to to lay a bunch of juice on player props, but I do think he's just going to see basically all the work on a good offense. And so it's kind of a fun, you know, 1,200 yards last year. Another 50 yards gets you home a 3 to 1
Starting point is 00:24:27 in a better situation this year. I've been clicking all summer. I've kind of been there. I actually been trying to like, I went through some stuff today because I was just kind of ran some of the numbers to see where some season long stuff kind of landed. And I got to, I was like, oh,
Starting point is 00:24:44 I got to make some adjustments in Dallas's backfield because I have him close to like almost 1,200 yards. I don't know where the carries go. Like where do they go, right? Like so. Malik stuff. Does Malik Davis see? I think so there's a carries line from Malik.
Starting point is 00:25:01 It's like Malik Davis, right? Malik Davis. Week one line. I think it was like I thought I saw like a five and a half or something like that earlier. 17 and a half for Jvante Williams. I think that's way too high from Malik. I think there's no way unless they win by like 40. I think we'll see like 20 for Javante and like two to three for the guy like, you know, any backups.
Starting point is 00:25:23 Because, I mean, they just jam him. Like they showed that last year. They were just willing to just jam him. And they've said it. They said they're comfortable with him as their Delcow, three down guy. It wasn't like a nobody prospect. Like, right? This is a big time prospect coming out of Carolina.
Starting point is 00:25:40 Like, you know, he's got the chops. It just was a slow go in Denver and injuries and some stuff. like that. So yeah, obviously the reason we're not firing over whatever, 950 or whatever is, especially for running back. It's just it's a high bar and injuries. You know, you lose two games and you're kind of cooked. Yeah, just play the alts. Yeah, play the odds. So, I mean, the. Yeah, the study, too, real quick, like the, the study that I did was basically saying, like, season long unders on the minus one 10 lines hit close to 60% of the time, if not over 60% of time depending on the statistical category that you're,
Starting point is 00:26:14 betting on. But if they do go over, they go over by an average of like 35% of their lines. So places him squarely in play to hit alts, which again, goes right back to my theory of play alts and unders. That's basically it. Yep. Smart. I'm on board.
Starting point is 00:26:32 It's a slow burn for me. Let me hear. We're right. I'm with you. And I like him. I've been on the player. So I'm very, I'm very good with the player. And then you try to divvy up where the rest of the carries go.
Starting point is 00:26:44 It's really hard to do. DAC is not like running more than twice a game and like their scrambles, right? It only goes so far. You have to divvy up a hundred per a team that is one of the high volume units in the league. They're going to run a ton of place. They like someone has to get carries, right? Like you start to be like, all right, well, I want to top this guy off at 58, 60% of carries.
Starting point is 00:27:07 Where are they going? I don't feel good about them going anywhere else. Right. So, yeah, I'm with you. I think that's a great, great call. I like the year. I like the year there too. All right,
Starting point is 00:27:18 player stuff. Dude, we got a couple of bangers. You want to rip some of those off? I mean, I think you found some awesome one. We got some of these that are, again,
Starting point is 00:27:28 single book stuff. They've moved because we've been trying to get down as much as we can to realize they're not coming back. They're still fine. We're going to give them to you today, even though they're worse than they were over the weekend. They're still fine.
Starting point is 00:27:40 The first is two Deshawn Watson plays. Now, again, subject to whatever your opinion is of the Cleveland quarterback situation. Connor and I are of the belief that we're not long for a lot of Deshawn Watson starts this year. Okay. You could sell me, and I think there's a prevailing narrative out there, that like maybe he makes the first two road starts. We come back to Cleveland for the first home game in week three, and it's Shador Sanders. And I also am of the belief. And again, it's my belief that once you pull the plug here, we're not going back to him.
Starting point is 00:28:12 they would go to Gabriel. They would do something else. You're not going to like bounce back and forth with Watson. I think it'd be a really tough sell if you had to pull them to go back to them. They could be they have a mess of quarterback and, you know, Gabriel's still there. So you can get Sean Watson under 1600 passing yards, 1600 and a half passing yards. Again, like that five games, six games, basically. Also 11 and a half touchdowns, which is, these again,
Starting point is 00:28:42 are both on Jackings. I would say more than, so like, so his week one line is 177 yards in a game that they are touchdown, nine point underdogs now on Pinnacle, against a Jags defense that is not that good, fine, I would say. And his line is 175 yards. So you back that into the other way. We're talking about like nine games they're implying.
Starting point is 00:29:04 They're implying, like that's what the line is applying is nine games that DeShon Watson is going to start here. And so, the schedule too as you mentioned touchdown plus road dogs at jackson at tampa to start the season home against carolina a lot of people in industry think that's where he's going to start a lot of people were surprised even started in the first place uh there is you know i floated this prop to some other people and their their uh you know i guess input was that they put too much money into disson watson and like it was like an ownership decision first and i think it actually kind of was probably
Starting point is 00:29:37 initially but you can't i don't think that you can start with shudder and then you can't you can't you could have gone to Deshawn for a little bit and then leave. You had to start with Deshawn, give him one final chance here, be like, there's nothing we can do. Our hands are tied. He just sucks. It's over. And the way the schedule plays out is perfect for that because they get smoked.
Starting point is 00:29:54 It's not the coach's fault. It's not like, you know, whatever. It's just they, he had to play Deshaun Watson. And then you play Shudur week three on. If they don't, if he still lasts through there, I think Pittsburgh might give him a hard time. They're underdogs in all these games. Like they're not matured, they're not better than Carolina or the Jets or the Steelers. then they have Baltimore in week six.
Starting point is 00:30:14 Like, again, like, if somehow they last through all those games and maybe they win a game or two, then they have to play Baltimore, which he's still probably not anywhere near 600 yards at this point and probably get smoked. And then they play Tennessee, another great spot to put in someone else. They kept four quarterbacks in the roster too. They kept Tailing Green. They put Dylan Gabriel on IR. I think Tailing Green will see time before Deshawn Watson sees time again.
Starting point is 00:30:39 So, and he was good in precinct. He was fun. was good like i yeah i fully agree with you i thought this was an absolute banger um i think if i would set a line right up over under games played i would set it at like four and a half okay i'd take the under yeah and then like yeah but you don't even matter like to your point like he five six games you're probably it's like you're sweating it more than you thought you might have to but same thing 11 and a half touchdowns no shot no shot yeah that That it's it's just crazy to me.
Starting point is 00:31:14 I thought that was that was an awesome one. Yeah. I mean, yeah, both again, draft games only. But they're out there. It opened at like 749 or something like that and a half or 1749. And a half. Just crazy. I try to make like fair market value on it and I had that like minus 1100 or something like that.
Starting point is 00:31:36 Yeah. That's 17 and a half with the projection that I had. So yeah, I think that's an absolute. the bangor for you if you can get down on anything on draft kings or maybe your wife's account can get down on anything on draft kings whatever you need to do i think that's out there still as a solo book open another draft king's only one that i think connor i both really really really like i had to ask connor like because i was looking at not the book and looking at my screen and running things i'm like is there dontavian wicks prop out there because i'm seeing don tautavian wicks
Starting point is 00:32:06 at 599 and a half receiving yards on draftings, it says. Apparently it's true. We like the under 599.99 and a half receiving yards with Dante Vicks. I can't really get him to 450, even if I think I'm like really super generous with his route rate and target share. I like this one quite a bit too, Connor. Yeah, I mean, you figure like he starts the season as the wire receiver two, probably McCauley-Leming Wired receiver 3, but then you have Dallas Goddard mixing in.
Starting point is 00:32:35 You have Devontz-Smith. so getting more targets it's going to be a run heavy offense Hollywood brown is probably going to play some I would assume be like a stretch outside guy so wicks probably rotates he's always been like the darling wide receiver who gets open but then never ends up making the most his opportunity never had some problem with drops like I think mckelleman is going to end up taking over
Starting point is 00:32:56 more just be like that second target with goddard mixing in as a third target and so then what you're putting in like the wider receiver four or five on like a lower volume offense. Yeah, the under here seems really good. 600 yards was pretty surprised to see. I thought it would be closer to like, like you said, $4.99 and a half, maybe $450 even.
Starting point is 00:33:15 Yeah. And again, I would still lean under, but it wouldn't be the banger that we have. We have an extra 100 yard buffer here for this guy. And like you said, I love just pass catcher, four or five on the team on a low volume passing offense
Starting point is 00:33:28 and maybe not even a particularly efficient one. It's just, it's a, a high bar for that type of player. So like that one. And again, drafting is only minus 110 though. So again,
Starting point is 00:33:38 four shopping around. We've also, I think both are aligned. And I think some of the stuff we're getting out of San Francisco and beats are there too. Debo Samuel. I think you can go a couple different ways.
Starting point is 00:33:52 Under yards, under receptions, 59 and a half receiving, 509 and a half receptions. Receiving yards numbers, I think what, six and change too? Kind of like that.
Starting point is 00:34:02 too, but any thoughts on Debo under? Yeah, I grabbed some under in the 60s. Again, it's solo book stuff, so we can't really promote a ton. But at this point, fire away. Yeah, 59 and a half, still a lot. Receptions for him. Yeah, like gadget, work, I don't know, wide receiver three slash four at this point, behind Stribbs and Mike Evans.
Starting point is 00:34:25 I think we might see some, there's two other guys. Jordan Watkins, I think, to Marcus Robinson, I think are going to go both see time. and like, Debo might just mix in as kind of like, again, like a gadget guy. It might play some running back a little bit. Well, also, CMC, like, didn't even practice yesterday. It might be a total nothing burger, but this is now the third year in a row that this has happened. Two years ago, he just missed half the season.
Starting point is 00:34:50 Last year, he was totally fine. This year, again, no idea. We'll see. But, again, like Debo, 60 catches. It's a lot of catches. I think it implies around, like, four-ish per game, like high threes per game. average. That's playing every game.
Starting point is 00:35:05 Playing every game that's asking a lot. Yeah. I agree. I got a little CMC in a dynasty startup for two years. I'd like to see him, you know, like him to not miss week one of my first year with CMC. Let's get him in the lineup. Let's get him on, you know, away from the substation.
Starting point is 00:35:24 Let's get him in there. So, yeah, but I'm with you. I think there's a lot of different ways to play unders on the Debo stuff that's out there. I think it's probably just blindly the right way. So those are kind of the banger, offensive unders. I think you and I were kind of both on. What else you got? Yeah, honestly, like, I've released most of my unders.
Starting point is 00:35:43 So I've kind of just been, got some all fun alt-overs left. We talked about one, Bowers, 1,000 and 1250 plus, both, I think, really good numbers. I was going through some of the worst receiving cores in the league yesterday with our friend who's, you know, doing a millions entry with us, Rahul. We drafted another FFPC team yesterday. Nice. And we got Brock Bowers of 12, first off. You know, shout out to us.
Starting point is 00:36:09 Very lucky. That was your, that was your, that's why it was good. That's a good thing. Yeah. Rahul does, every year we do like some random team that he just decides to send it. This year he's like, I want to do a full main event. So he just sent it on that. And we got, you know, Bowers 12.
Starting point is 00:36:22 But either way, the Raiders, I think are second worst receiving group in the league. I was trying to think, do you have anyone else? I mean, so the dolphins are worst. Dolphins are the worst. Yeah. Which could end up being better, which I think could end up being better if Chris Bell or Caleb Douglas work out. But that's like, Trey Tucker's like played well sparingly, you know, at a time time.
Starting point is 00:36:41 So they don't have anything that sniffs, uh, median Bauer season. Right. Exactly. So, so. So, so. I was just talking about receivers. Like just receiver. I think that the ball is worse.
Starting point is 00:36:58 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But then we have, I think the Raiders. are pretty easily second. I couldn't find anything of anyone else that was really even close.
Starting point is 00:37:09 And so you have that offense. There's been a ton of really promising signs in preseason with just kind of his usage where he was lined up, lined up all over. There was reports last year that they wanted to have him basically feed him the ball as much as possible because they knew that they weren't going to be a good team. And this year, now you have Kurt Cousins
Starting point is 00:37:26 who fed Kyle Pitts. I mean, like Kyle Pitts's massive biggest games we're all with Kirk Cousins. He splits without Kirk Cousins are actually pretty bad and a little bit scary. And then, you know, if Kirk Cousins isn't cutting it, you got Fernando coming in. Then, you know, number one pick who I think it's going to be more than capable at some point. And when that is, I'm not sure. But yeah, it's like Bowers is going to catch like, I don't even know, seven balls a game, basically, for forever.
Starting point is 00:37:54 And so I'm very bullish on him and I think that he could just absolutely crush this season. I did too. We made, I think, a case in our awards show for him for offensive player of the year, which is admittedly thin, but it was like 100 to 1. Yeah. So like, you know, Pat is tough on a bad, bad football team like that, but it's not nothing, right? We saw that, like, a player winning defensive player of the year has really been something that is coincided with good performances. But when you have somewhat of like historical outliers, they win the award. And like the case for Brock Bowers is, is he better than 100 to 1 to have a historical outlier season? I think he is.
Starting point is 00:38:38 It's not simply the case one there too. Yeah. I have a PC at 12 turn. It's fantastic. And, you know, him chasing ceiling outcomes, it makes sense. I like that one quite a bit. Yeah. That was over over.
Starting point is 00:38:53 A fun one. One other one that is another running back that where the paths, like the seas kind of parted for him. was Travis E.N slash A-chan from the Saints. For sure. 1,000 yards is plus 170. 1250 is plus 500 right now on Fandul. 1100 yards last year in a split backfield on the Jags. Now all alone, basically, Camara's already injured.
Starting point is 00:39:20 So, you know, again, it's like, I thought Camry's going to be involved in the receiving game a little bit. It might be take a little bit early down work. If he's banged up, he's basically just going to be like a cheerleader and maybe like a coach on the sideline with the clipboard the rest of the season. Like I don't think that he's going to be very involved. And then you have a Saints team that I think we're both like cautiously optimistic on.
Starting point is 00:39:40 Good offense line. Yeah, good offensive line. Should be in like mostly neutral game script, I would say, most of the time. So yeah, I would say the Javante one's better because I think that offense is better. But it's also priced like that. You know, it was plus 115 plus 340. This is 170 and plus 500 here. The floor just feels really high as long.
Starting point is 00:39:59 always stays healthy. And then the upside is like the Saints are any good or ETN's good or maybe he sees 300 carries. I don't know. All that's possible. And then you don't really have to be all that efficient if you see 300 carries. For sure. Working the passing game just overall.
Starting point is 00:40:13 But yeah, for your prop. I like it too. It's another one where for week one, it's pretty hard to find like, you know, how much is Kendry Miller involved? Like someone's got to be involved a little bit because it's pretty, it's pretty thin behind him in a spot that's, you know, looking like a track meet against, against, uh, against the lines. So yeah, I like him. I've definitely warmed up to him as the last month or so has gone on for sure. So I like it. We're aligned there. It's the last. I think, yeah, the other ones I have
Starting point is 00:40:42 are defensive and I have some awards stuff. So you have any others? You want to empty the clip? One random one that I can't, like, I got to figure out of still on the board, but there's like a prop market that says first player to record 150 receiving yards. Parker Washington, 100 to 1 is kind of fun against week one against Cleveland. I mean, it's worth a click in my book. You know, 150 yards for him is probably like a 10 catch game, but it's kind of a fun, fun little market there. And I think the history that Liam Cohen has with slot receivers is insane.
Starting point is 00:41:19 He averaged like 75 yards a game down the stretch once Travis Hunter got injured and he was playing a full-time role. All the off-season reports were like insane that he's just the clear number one receiver in Jacksonville. And so, yeah, I don't know, kind of a fun price there. I do think that there's other derivatives that could make sense. I think a season-long prices have kind of like crept up like futures. So there's not a ton of value, but a thousand yards probably isn't bad.
Starting point is 00:41:41 1250, I mean, 250 yards for a guy like him is a lot, but it's definitely possible. Yeah. Where's that out? It was a draft king that I saw it initially. I haven't checked on the price recently, but it's, you know, got it there. And then I'm just like, okay, well, well, it's, it's, it's. a random weird niche market that like some books don't really post you can find someone mispriced that's playing in the early slate a week one yeah right i know i think a shot a hundred
Starting point is 00:42:08 hundred's good price yeah a hundred hundred is not bad right i mean it's like all the chalk guys are obviously there and there are some good matches for the chalk guys but it's fine yeah hundred is a good spot um all right a couple of uh defensive props that uh i wish more books were like, I just wish they weren't consistent with posting sacks. I'm disappointed that they weren't this season. But my favorite by far is Abdul Carter. Abdul Carter over seven and a half sacks is minus 120 on draft kings. You can find some of the number of books.
Starting point is 00:42:42 I wouldn't call it widely available per se. But it's out there. And you can probably even find some better pricing out there too. And I think the pick-up sites have it if that's how you like to get down. Again, we know that some of you, you know, just, you know, can't get off unless you can get down $3,000. I'm sorry. Like, you know, like I'm, I feel for you, but like you're not the entire of the audience. Some people can get down, whatever they want to get down on draft Kings and bet 365 and MGM and like, you know, to each their own.
Starting point is 00:43:16 Go bet Abdul Carter over seven and a half sacks. He led the league in quick pressures last year, the entire league. So more than Miles Garrett, more than Brian Burns, more than Max Crosby, and quick pressures, pass rush, win rate, these things are, you know, lead to more sustainability in sack production than previous year's sacks. So look at his four sacks season last year and you're like seven and a half. He's going to double his sacks. He's going to double his sacks this year.
Starting point is 00:43:45 He's probably going to get 10. Some books offer that. You could bet like 10 plus. I think you could find like three to one for him to get 10 sacks. I basically haven't projected it like almost 10 flat. We're talking about, wow, you know, a top five pick last year, who was awesome, just didn't convert sacks, pushed them all out to Brian Burns, who had like 15 and a half. So who probably, I think, had fewer expected sacks than Abdul Carter last year.
Starting point is 00:44:10 So go about Abdul Carter over seven and a half. Connor will like this one. There's another one of my guys from draft ace, Colts. Colts aren't getting there this year without Laiatu Latu. over 6.75 sacks on Latu. So just needs to get to seven. I have him almost like a little over nine. Another guy that like wasn't as good as his underlying metrics for last year.
Starting point is 00:44:32 We'll play better with a full season of DeForest Buckner next to him as well. Draft Kings has this at like minus 135. Some of the other softer books have a better price. But I'm comfortable with laying some juice on Laotu Latu getting seven sacks because really good football player. And it's going to be really crucial for, for Indy to do their thing. This one's great.
Starting point is 00:44:52 Draft Kings has this. Also, Bet365 has this. The guy that I have leading the league in tackles is 12 to 1. Jack Campbell, Lions inside linebacker, 12 to 1 to lead the league in tackles. Monster, super efficient, doesn't leave the field. Awesome, awesome player. And I have him head and shoulders above pretty much everyone else to lead the league in tackles on the season.
Starting point is 00:45:17 So we'll be playing, you know, about it. Bad defense will be in the field for a bunch of snaps. High efficient, high volume offense. Just going to create a lot of plays in Detroit games. And he benefits from that as well. So Jack Campbell, 12 to 1 to lead the league in tackles and assists. So at the end of the prop ones. Any thoughts on any of the D guys?
Starting point is 00:45:39 No. I mean, I think that that makes, I think all that makes sense. I'm just going to blindly tail those like Schwessinger. I'm not in the defensive streets, but definitely excited about, you know. A little bit more this year. I'm getting you a little bit more this year. Yep, exactly. Yeah, I know it's like, even on the offensive side of the ball, too, you know,
Starting point is 00:46:01 you got new projection methodology, just like simplify the process and advance it, you know, a variety of ways. So I'm super excited to see what that looks like, you know, for subscribers and for everything there because I think it's just going to lead to so many more betting opportunities. I mean, week one, like, I don't know, I have. like 15 plays written down already. I mean, we're already in four. We're just a little bit on the early side.
Starting point is 00:46:23 Most, like, everyone besides the couple people were able to get down 100 plus dollars wherever they wanted. So I'm going to wait a little bit longer for like some of the Sunday plays because everything's been out for a while. But testing Fanduil to make sure that they started opening up limits on like more major markets, a little bit thinner on receptions and stuff. But man, oh man, do we have some good ones here. There's a lot of discreements, I think, in playing time.
Starting point is 00:46:46 And especially some of these thinner players. So just really interesting to see how it goes. Yeah. There's a market center that you always rush to. Like when I get a sense of like on a Tuesday in season of guys you're looking at, I'm like, why is that on your radar? But I respect it. So now we'll be doing a lot of that together.
Starting point is 00:47:00 Yeah, we have, you know, market-derived projections through Sharpstack. We have projections that Paulson does on the fantasy side, which is done for a very long time and done very well. The process for those is a little bit more fantasy-driven in some, you know, mean, medium math stuff that I think, you know, is not necessarily perfect fit for betting. So I'm spending time with, you know, Conner's help and a second set of eyeballs. And we're trying to build some more betting based projections week in and week out. So we're excited about the connor said the opportunities that are going to come of that this year for us too. So last two things I have on the card are awards.
Starting point is 00:47:41 And there are also like the random awards that aren't even like widely available at all. assistant coach of the year, not widely available. Again, kind of a newish award, but kind of coincides with the pro-Dalice stuff. Christian Parker, a new defensive coordinator, 14 to 1 to win assistant coach of the year. Again, these are like awards in general, so narrative-driven, but pretty easy like through line here to think of if Dallas is who we think they maybe could be, you know, winning 10 games, you know, threatening to win this division, being a really good football team. I'll bounce back of a historically bad defense. It's going to be very easy to give Christian Parker, maybe even more credit than he deserves.
Starting point is 00:48:21 He probably will deserve credit, but they've also brought in a ton of names to help there too and spent money and drafting guys. But we're trying to find a reason to give an assistant coach and award why you do it. He's just kind of a new sexy name in the space, 14 to 1 for him to be assistant coach of the year, I think is a pretty good price.
Starting point is 00:48:39 The price is a little bit longer a couple weeks ago. I think I mistakenly talked to some people that, want to lean on some of those things a little bit maybe when we're out in Vegas people that probably leaned on circ a little bit while we're there I know I caught someone's attention that I know I was going to throw some money down he's like that's a really good derivative of pro-dala stuff and uh yeah a couple hours later the number was a little shorter so I'm like keep my mouth shut next time but I like Christian Parker I like that price at 14 draft Kings, Fandul I think both have this I love it yeah it's uh the
Starting point is 00:49:11 assistant coach of the year market is not not one that I've handicapped. That's a fun one. I like that. A little different. And then again, more narrative than anything. Protector of the year,
Starting point is 00:49:21 Lane Johnson at 12 to 1. Lane Johnson's basically said this is his last year. Lane Johnson goes into the Hall of Fame as soon as he's eligible. Lane Johnson is going to be good. He's going to go out and retire kind of at the top of his game. And it feels like in a way like Matthew Stafford MVP last year where like the Maddie Stafford was really good last year, deserved, I think, to be very much where he was in the MVP discussion.
Starting point is 00:49:48 But there's also like a great May is going to have a bunch of shots. And like Penny Sewell's going to have a bunch of shots. And protector of the year wasn't available for most of Lane Johnson's career. And like we can get him one before he retires. He's going to be good. Philly's going to be good. Let's get Lane Johnson and some sort of like career recognition as one of the best offensive linemen of his generation.
Starting point is 00:50:08 I'm willing to pay 12 to one to see that through. Yeah, I like that one. You mentioned that before. Oh, that was really, that's a good one for sure, especially if Philly ends up being okay. Revitalized the running game a little bit this year. I think that could be an awesome one. Yeah, it's an awesome player. He's going to be good.
Starting point is 00:50:26 They're going to be good. So otherwise, what do we do? Like, how are we measuring if it's like PFF grade, Lane Johnson is going to be in top five and PFF. Yeah. Like, I don't know how the, he's got me as moaning. Meena, meaning locked in. See, there you go. She gets way to market.
Starting point is 00:50:42 Yeah. Yeah, exactly. That's it for me. It's like 14, 15 plays. Yeah, I got three more real quick. MVP, Bo Nix, 35 to 1. We already talked about the Broncos. I think that's awesome.
Starting point is 00:50:53 He just fits all the thresholds. And they had out of Jalen Waddle. They're going to pass plenty. He could put up the counting sets. Like, it's all doable there. They're going to win a bunch of games. Coach of the year, Shane Steichen, 25 to 1. I think that's pretty interesting if the Colts outproduce.
Starting point is 00:51:11 They fit in that perfect. threshold of like teams who are projected to do okay and then maybe they come in and outperform if they win the division. I think you're getting 25 to one there as a guy who's pretty live specifically. And then office player of the year, Nico Collins, we talked about him a couple times. It's like 40 to 1. Just going to hover targets, you know, 10 targets a game. Wouldn't be surprising. You know, it's like crazy amounts of volume. I think we're going to get out of Nico as long as he's healthy. So, and then also fits a lot of the other, I don't know, specifications, I think there makes a ton of sense at this point.
Starting point is 00:51:43 So I like that one too. Yeah. Yeah, I think probably the best market, I think, just in terms of how it fluctuates anyway. And then thinking about how to leverage, you know, the PMs with that is like coach of the year just seems like there's fluctuation in season, the buy and sell and the move and manipulate that. You know, it's not when I want to hold a bunch of positions pre-flop with, but like, yeah, dancing in and out of the season, I think it makes a pretty, a pretty, you know,
Starting point is 00:52:10 good, pretty good spot to do so. But I like to stock in play, right? And it's in line with what you're saying. Exceeding expectations. They win the division. They're basically like, hey, look how good they were last year. And now they're doing it again. Like he's going to very much get a ton of media credit and deservedly so. So I like that one. I like the thought there too. So, all right. AFC championship game. What do you got? One of the two teams. I have Broncos bills. I think both could easily not win their division and still make it here. I agree. Or like one or the other.
Starting point is 00:52:45 I think that they're both when it's said and done. I like them more than basically every other teams here in the AFC. So that's where I'm at with them. I'm also going to go Broncos. When we go Broncos Texans. It'll be a defensive slug fest. I wanted to go paths, but I feel like, you know, it could be some steps back.
Starting point is 00:53:07 but Broncos Texans picking the winner there is tricky for me. It's a little bit harder. So what do you got on the NFC side? I'm going to go with the Rams and then the Chicago Bears after not winning their division. Yeah. So I think that they're going to have a tough season and that maybe their secondary is a little bit questionable. But when it comes time to it, I don't think there's anyone else in the league at this point. I mean, there's a couple other, there's like whatever, two or three other teams that I'd want to bank on winning.
Starting point is 00:53:37 ripping off three or four games in a row, and one of them is the Chicago Bears. I think they sneak into the playoffs after probably suffering some 40 to 35 losses early in the season, and then if they can find out how to play a little bit of better defense in the playoffs, or maybe Kyler Gordon's finally healthy,
Starting point is 00:53:53 or some of their guys come back, or maybe they make a mid-season trade. That's possible. They've been rumored to maybe add some more beef there. Wouldn't be surprised for Ryan Poles to go all. And I think that they got enough juice here to make a run in the playoffs. I mean, they were a two-point conversion
Starting point is 00:54:07 away from doing it last year if they went for it against the rams instead of uh you know uh yeah so i don't know i like it they were on my short list i really consider them same thing like i like i you know i just i'm so drinking the ben johnson kool-aid i just i like i'm just drinking it like it's you know coaching matters in football more than anywhere i just feel like it's the third year of caleb because you know yeah i agree i think they very much could you know and like this similar win to the Patriots, win fewer games or whatever, and be a better football team and still figure it out. Yeah, like, I think Detroit is going to win 12 to 14 games,
Starting point is 00:54:43 but I think Chicago can easily beat them in a one game sample. And yeah, like easily. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. The Rams are so hard to not pick. You're basically picking, like, an injury. Like you're picking, like, oh, I think Pooka is getting hurt in December.
Starting point is 00:55:01 Or like, you know what I mean? Like, it's just, it's so thin. But I'm going to go Rams. I think cowboys are going to make a push. Yeah, I'm just kind of in on on Dallas. I did consider, I did consider the Bears. They were kind of like the last team. It was kind of like Bears, Patriots were kind of like third teams when I was
Starting point is 00:55:26 trying to pick these conference games. So I like it. I like it. All right, who's playing the Super Bowl and who wins? Yeah. I'm going back to back. Rams Broncos or sorry Rams Broncos 44 to 1 right now
Starting point is 00:55:42 winner Rams They're just the best team in the league They're the best team in the league If they're not like I kept looking at it I was like man you had Aaron Donald You got Miles Garrett You got the whole offense Like if they stay healthy
Starting point is 00:55:57 It's tough to envision a way that they don't win Or like come close to winning if everyone's healthy So I think they're just the best team in the league right now. So it was tough for me to pick against them. So, yeah, I think then they beat the Broncos. I mean, again, that's not that outrageous. So I kind of agree. But I'm not doing it.
Starting point is 00:56:20 I'm going Broncos over the Cowboys. Oh, let's go. All right. Denver gets one. Yeah, I mean, they, look, I think they gave Seattle a pretty good game last year if they were all healthy. But they weren't. and lose the quarterback on fluke play to end the playoff game and, you know, made a nice little path for my Patriots.
Starting point is 00:56:41 But, yeah, I think Denver's kind of got all the pieces. And, you know, I think I was very much, Houston, like, was very much in on Houston. I think the Jen Higgins injury, I just don't love. I think they're going to be able to be okay and piece it together and be really, really competitive. The defense is so damn good. But I just think if Denver can host that game in the playoffs, that, you know, conference championship game, we've seen Denver.
Starting point is 00:57:04 go in in Houston to win, but that's such a huge home field advantage. I just think they're a better football team. And I feel like CJ Stroud will have a harder time standing up to the pressure than Bo Nix would against Houston. So I like Bo Nix in that one. So yeah, give me the Broncos. Broncos over the, over the Cowboys. Can't pick the Cowboys to win the whole thing.
Starting point is 00:57:25 Can't get little, our boss Luis would get too excited for that one. What is a Broncos Texans game ended at like 1713 or something like that? It would be great, though. Great for you. I mean, it's like all America will be sleeping. It's just good ball. It's like a snow game again, you know, something like that. It'd just be wild.
Starting point is 00:57:46 Yeah. Yeah. So good for the listeners, good for the teams. We didn't pick the same. We did both pick the Broncos to go to Super Bowl, which is probably bad for Denver. Yeah. After the Green Bay Baltimore thing last year.
Starting point is 00:57:57 But yeah, there's a lot of pass. You know, the Rams. I just don't, I think it's can't make an argument against the Healthy Rams team. You just can't. So, yeah, we'll see. I think Dallas can outscore some teams, though. They'll be fun. So all right, appreciate everyone hanging out with us.
Starting point is 00:58:14 As always, again, come back on Wednesday. We'll have our week one preview. We'll be talking sides of totals, getting more into the granular matchups of those games. Then Friday's prop drop. So again, move the line, wherever you listen, wherever you watch. If you want to subscribe to 4-4, you want to get in our Discord, you want to get all the official picks and plays and all the stuff. stuff that we have this season.
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Starting point is 00:58:59 So, you know, if you, hey, I don't bet much, but I play a lot of DFS or I'm going to want help with my waiver wire or like start sit stuff on the fantasy side it all comes with all the betting stuff too so if you're going to dabble it all on the betting stuff get the betting sub and then you're going to get all the fantasy stuff with it it's all included so again promo code noon and 50 take advantage of that and again it's only i think for this week um you cannot promise that that's going to be back any longer so i hit us up specifically if you have any questions you can make a comment here in the show notes i'll reach out to us directly as well so appreciate it as always for connor i'm ryan we'll see all next time thanks everybody

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