The Journal. - Germany’s Economy Is Spiraling. Can War Fix It?

Episode Date: May 5, 2026

After years of industrial decline, the Germany economy is stagnant. Government officials now hope an audacious plan, to pivot from consumer goods to weapons, will kickstart growth again. WSJ’s Bojan Pancevski explains how the same factories built to make German car parts are now gearing up to supply the defense industry. Jessica Mendoza hosts. Further Listening: - The Global Scramble for Patriot Missiles - Germany’s Economy Is Broken. There’s No Plan B. Sign up for WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Germany is well known for producing high-quality vehicles. Its luxury car companies are the crown jewel of the country's manufacturing sector. But recently, those companies have been flashing warning signs. After years of roaring down the autoban, a speed bump for Porsche. Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz posting year-on-year declines of over 40% in net profits. The iconic sports car maker notched up a spectacular third-quarter, loss of almost one billion euros. There is

sort of a creeping sense of panic. Our colleague Boyan Panchevsky covers Europe, and he's been reporting on the pain being felt throughout Germany's economy. Germany is basically losing roughly 15,000 jobs from

manufacturing each month. Wow, wow. This is a striking figure. Per month. Yeah, it's a striking figure. It's a bloodbath. Yeah. And obviously, it's a situation that requires urgent action both on behalf of the businesses, on the enterprises, and the government who is like desperate to help them and stop to bleed. German officials and companies have been feverishly looking for a way to inject life into the

economy, and that led to a big aha moment. While luxury car brands have suffered, another kind of precision manufacturing shows some real promise, weapons. There is money to be made in arms industry, which is one of the very few branches of the economy that's actually booming. And they seem to have coalesced around the idea of going into the defense industry, which is now kind of crucial in Europe. So they're pivoting, basically, from the car business to the business of war? That's right. They're pivoting from cars to cannons.

Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Tuesday, May 5th. Coming up on the show, Germany is reinventing itself as a weapons factory. The Madamy Holmes bike for brain health supporting Baycrest returns on May 31st for its fifth anniversary with a new start and finish at the Aga Khan Museum.

Join thousands of cyclists as we take over the DVP and Gardner Expressway in support of dementia research and brain health. Riders of all abilities are welcome, and both regular bikes and e-bikes can participate. Bring your friends, or corporate team, and make an impact. Register today at fight for brainhealth.ca. Boyan, how would you describe the role

that the German economy plays in Europe? Oh, you know, when Germany is this giant sort of beating industrial heart of Europe and smack in the middle of the continents. Essentially, a lot of countries, even most countries in mainland Europe, are entangled in the German supply chain. And when German manufacturing is

stuttering, these countries are also losing growth. I mean, one example is Austria, one of the richest countries in Europe, and it's completely embedded in the German supply chains. The same is true also for countries like Hungary or the Czech Republic. So, you know, everyone suffers if Germany suffers. And Germany is not only a major economic force in Europe. It's also deeply important to the continent's security. After the U.S., Germany contributes the most money.

towards NATO. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it both threatened Europe's stability and hurt Germany's economy. Russia had been Germany's biggest supplier of natural gas and a major supplier of other energy resources. Russian gas firm Gasprom is scheduled to switch off its largest natural gas pipeline running to Germany today.

The war in Ukraine sent energy prices skyward, and those price increases rippled throughout the manufacturing sector. That was devastating to the German car industry, which is already facing stiff competition from overseas. China once basically a customer of Germany has turned into its most fierce rival and is producing things that are as good or cheaper than what Germany has to offer. I mean, their electric cars are in part better than the German cars, which is unheard of

so far. the Germans were over as comfortable as being the best on the market. Combined, all of these headwinds have stalled Germany's economy. The economy hasn't effectively grown since 2018. It's the longest period of time of stagnation since the Second World War. So it's alarming, essentially, at this stage. Chancellor Schultz announced last week he would call a confidence vote and trigger snap election.

In February of last year, Germany held a big election. And in the run-up, it was clear that voters were looking for a change. Polls are showing that people have a very dim view of the future. The majority thinks that their children will be worse off than their parents. The stagnation of Europe's biggest economy has been one of the burning issues of the campaign. Others have been support for Ukraine. The election proved to be a major turning point. incumbents were voted out.

The far right and the far left surged. The party that got the most votes was the Christian Democratic Union with a conservative and business-friendly platform. They vowed to turn around the economy with investment and deregulation. And the face of that turnaround is the new minister of the economy.

And the minister of the economy is a woman called Katarina Raichie. She comes from business herself. She used to be in energy, in the energy trade, she dealt with gas and so on. and she's very, very much attuned to the mood inside the business community. We need speed and investments and we need private capital.

And that will be another topic I will take care of. With the ongoing security threat from Russia, Raika bet that there would be higher demand for weapons across Europe and that Germany could make them. So Katerina Raichia, the economy minister, figured that out and realized we need to onshore manufacturing for these things. We need to start making these things ourselves in Germany but also in Europe or then start exporting them to our partners elsewhere. Riker and the new government spearheaded a change to the German constitution

that unlocked billions for defense manufacturing. Berlin has since pledged to spend more than half a trillion dollars on defense over the next decade. And the government didn't stop there. Riker also launched a program that encouraged existing German companies to connect with new defense customers. So she came up with this idea of setting up a platform, matchmaking platform, where businesses from across the manufacturing economy can log in and offer their services in manufacturing things

that the defense industry needs. Say you're a manufacturer that makes screws. You could get matched for the company that makes drums. learn their needs and start making screws for them too. And for these manufacturers, there's another benefit to getting on board with defense. Once you enter that zone, the defense industry, you are no longer exposed to the competitive pressures from Asia and elsewhere because it's just the way it works. Allies buy from allies. They're not going to buy from adversaries.

In the year since Rika and her party were voted into office, there's been even more reason for Germany to lean into defense. President Trump's tariffs have further squeezed German exports, piling pressure onto the auto industry. Trump has also pulled back on U.S. support for NATO, and more recently, he's announced the withdrawal of around 5,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany. In the face of this U.S. retreat, Germany is anticipating Europe will need their weapons more than never. I'm wondering, was there any pushback at all to making weapons the focal point of Germany's industrial economy? Like, is there any stigma still attached to this idea? I think, you know, there used to be a stigma because Germany is a very pacifist nation for

for obvious reasons of history and has until the war in Ukraine been extremely restrictive with government contracts for weapons, factories, with exports. Now all that is gone. Now, with Russia becoming super aggressive, with America becoming detached, I think the mentality has basically fundamentally shifted. So is this big pivot working? That's next. So the German government is encouraging manufacturers to go into defense. But how hard is it exactly for a company or a factory to make that switch from, you know, making a part for a consumer good like a car to a part for a weapon? Apparently it's not that harder at all.

Obviously it depends on what they're doing. But in terms of engines and board systems and computer systems and electric engines for drones, for example, it's very much the same thing. Boyan talked to one company that's already making the switch. It's called Deutsch. Doits is one of Germany's oldest engine makers. Well, one thing you need to know about Deutsch is not just any odd engine company.

It is the oldest engine company in the world. Boyan recently interviewed the company CEO, who actually used to work in the defense industry. And he decided now we need to transform the company. You know, we can't go on as we used to. And so we need to look farther than just the car. industry. So what do we have? And what Doits had, the CEO found, were products that could be adaptable. You know, the engines they sell to carmakers, they can be used also with modifications. They can be used for tanks and armored vehicles and other kind of vehicles used in the defense industry.

They can also be used for drones. Doits acquired a drone company in 2025. But otherwise, it's largely been able to supply new customers by retooling what they already had. I mean, there's a minor kind of retuning. They have to reprogram some computers and robots. They have to retrain some of the workers. But they're using existing production lines. This is the most important thing. They're not out there building new factories. You know, that costs a lot of money to build a new factory in Germany. It's north of one billion in this business, you know. Boyan says that German companies like Doits also have a kind of cultural advantage. when it comes to manufacturing.

They're known for being really nimble because they've had to respond to a demanding global market. If you're a car parts supplier in Germany, you have to be the best and you have to be quick and you have to be responding to the market in real time.

If you can't do that, you're gone. And there's a reason why some of these companies have been around for almost two centuries because they've been responding to the market. So they're very quick to adapt, very quick to scale up. That ability to adapt is what Germany is hoping to leverage

in its nascent defense industry. And the war in Iran is opening up another big opportunity. American defense manufacturers have dominated the global weapons trade for decades. But as the fighting continues, the U.S. and its allies in the Gulf

have burned through their stocks of weapons, particularly things like Patriot missile systems, which are used to defend against, air strikes. And American companies can't move fast enough to replace them. So, you know, in the near future, the United States will not be able to supply its own armed forces sufficiently, let alone the allies in Europe. And, you know, they're not stupid. They know this. I mean, I think even Vladimir Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, said, we know that we're not getting the stuff from America now that we need because they used it all

up in the Gulf. In a weird way, that is a boost for European and particularly German defense manufacturers because now they need to step up and fill in the gap. German companies are stepping up. Doits now supplies engines for Patriot systems used by Saudi Arabia. And Volkswagen is currently in talks with the Israeli government to supply parts for the Iron Dome, their sky shield against missile and rocket attacks. So as you've been spelling out, Boyant, Germany has a lot writing on this major pivot. Are there signs that the pivot to defense is the solution to their economic problems? Well, we're talking about less than a year now, you know.

Depends for some companies. Some companies were pioneers in it. Others are kind of jumping on the bandwagon now. So it's early days. But individual companies show that there is a very positive effect. I mean, we talked about Doits. You know, Doits made the pivot and the bet paid off. The company grew 15% in revenue last year.

Which is a stark contrast to what some of these other companies have been seeing, right? Exactly. I mean, this is a company that supplies the car industry. So you would have expected them to be, you know, in a very tough spot. But actually, these guys are growing. They're very happy. With some companies seeing growth, employment numbers are also showing positive signs. many of the workers who lost their manufacturing jobs,

they're finding new jobs in the defense sector. If Germany is able to pull off this giant shift in its industrial economy, what could it mean for Europe? Well, it could only mean good things for Europe, because if they preserve the supply chains, if they preserve the workforce, if they preserve the market and the factories, keep the factories running,

then that means their partners across the, Eastern Europe and elsewhere will benefit from it. So, you know, Germany coming back to growth is absolutely brilliant news, you know, because effectively without Germany, the European Union economy is essentially an old people's home with a huge mortgage. Is this plan of Germany's kind of banking on a world with more conflict? So is that kind of the bet that Germany is making here? Absolutely, they're making that bad, and I think they're quite right. I mean, you'll hardly find any geopolitical analysts who will tell you there will be peace and prosperity in the world in the coming years, you know. It's not looking like that.

Russia is not going to stop being Russia the way it is at the moment, you know, and Russia is a huge menace on the European continent. It's very obvious that the war in Iran is not going to pacify the region in any conceivable sense, and that Iran will then sort of become a... a peaceful nation. It's very obvious that China is expanding and is flexing its own muscles and America is trying to sort of frustrate those efforts.

Essentially, they're not banking on war. They're banking on the anxiety and the fear of war. And it seems to be working so far. That's all for today, Tuesday, May 5th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode from Shelby Holiday Michael R. Gordon and Vera Bergen-Gruin.

Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.