Greenland, Russia, and The Cold War for the Arctic (#323)
00:01 Why does Greenland suddenly matter so much? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm delighted to be. with Heather Conley, one of Americans' leading experts on the Arctic, Europe, and transatlantic security. She previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs,
00:45 and she is currently a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Heather spent years warning that Greenland and the Arctic would become central to America's defense. I'm looking forward to hearing about why she was so right, why the Trump administration saw this as an urgent issue, and to discover what else she sees there that most of us are missing. Heather, welcome to three takeaways. Lynn, it's great to be with you. Thank you so much. It is my pleasure. In 1946, the United States secretly offered Denmark $100 million in gold for Greenland.
01:27 Why did America want it so badly? Our views were very much shaped by the Second World War and the concern that Nazi Germany obviously occupied Denmark but could have occupied Greenland. And Greenland sits at a very strategic location for German Ubo's. And so after the Second World War, the U.S. saw that as a vulnerability, particularly as America's relationship with the Soviet Union was turning rapidly from allies. to adversary. What is it about Greenland's geography that makes it so important to defending the United States? It's an incredibly important seedling for the United States to reinforce Europe with our forces. So if there was a security incident in Europe and we would have to rapidly deploy forces to Europe, if you didn't control that important seedling, it would be extremely difficult
02:22 leaving our European allies vulnerable. And we created under the Eisenhower. And we created under the Eisenhower, Howard administration, the distant early warning or due line. This was a string of early morning radars to detect Soviet missiles if they were coming to the United States. And that due line stretched from Alaska across Canada and in Greenland, which is why today America is only based on Greenland and its most northerly base is the Dufix space base where our very modern early morning radar can help detect missiles to protect the United States. incredibly important to protect North America, incredibly important for the United States to be able to enhance collective security for our NATO allies in Europe. Heather, why do you think
03:10 President Trump was so eager to acquire Greenland? And what factors do you think made the Trump administration consider Greenland so urgent, so suddenly? I would say he viewed this with the mindset of a real estate developer, the largest island in the world. that certainly had enormous strategic and economic benefit. And I think he saw this as a way to secure his own historic legacy as being a president in the 21st century to enlarge the United States. The Trump administration now considers the Arctic as part of homeland defense. It hadn't been put in that clarity of terms before. And that centrality makes our allies even more important to our homeland defense. The only way the U.S. can fully pull.
03:57 protect the homeland is with our Arctic allies in Canada through NORAD, our relationship with Denmark, our relationship with the United Kingdom, Norway. They help keep us safe. They're our front lines. And so that's the great takeaway here. Did the U.S. actually gain anything from this latest agreement with Greenland and Denmark? Well, I think this was an important agreement to stabilize this relationship, which has been destabilized the last 18. months. The agreement also was a reaffirmation of how incredible this 1951 bilateral defense agreement that has been amended over time. And so this agreement just said, we're coming back to that agreement. It reaffirmed the centrality of NATO and the protection of North America, the North Atlantic.
04:49 That was very, very important. Denmark is probably one of the strongest allies in support of Ukraine, they would not allow Russia to have a base on Greenland. China was interested in commercial infrastructure in Greenland in 2018 and who stepped forward to ensure that didn't happen, the kingdom of Denmark, the United States, and others. So we can say the adversary wouldn't arrive on Greenland, even if there's a change in independence. But yes, if that makes us feel better and we've got that in writing, that's important. But it really brings us back to the essence of NATO. How much of what Washington wanted was already possible under the existing defense agreement? 100% possible. And why is the front line of our homeland security, Greenland and the Arctic?
05:38 The United States has two Arctic approaches. So what we've been talking about is the Atlantic, the North Atlantic. There's another approach, the Pacific Arctic. And we didn't even talk about Alaska. We put so much attention on Greenland. We need to make sure we have. is much attention to Chinese and Russian vessels that are going near Alaska and the Pacific Arctic. We have two approaches, but we are seeing a 30% increase in Russian submarine activity in the Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom gap, that important sea lane to North America. We are seeing where Russian shadow fleet, they're tankers, they have intelligence capabilities, they have drone capabilities. We're seeing the intensification of Russian hybrid activity across Europe, across NATO countries. We are really seeing
06:28 a highly unstable security environment. And this is why Greenland plays a really critical role, the more persistent presence we have, an observation we can deter Russia's aggressive behavior. And that's really because the Arctic, in your words, shortened distances. Absolutely. I am always asked, why are we talking about the Arctic? much. And, you know, during the Cold War, the Arctic was so important because it shortens the distance for intercontinental ballistic missiles, for submarines. It shortens distances for undersea cables where you can exchange information for shipping between Asia and Europe. It shortens distances. And there's a strong belief that the countries that can ensure that they have freedom
07:15 of navigation, that they have the ability to deter aggression, to monitor missiles, they're going to be the ones that can protect their sovereignty and their territorial integrity. So it's extremely important. The Arctic is going to become even more important to our future security as it becomes a much busier place for ships, for satellites, for missiles, for submarines, for undersea capabilities as well. And the Arctic is important not only for Europe's and America's homeland security, but also for Russia's and for China's. 100%. So Russia is the Arctic superpower with over 53% of the Arctic coastline. And the Arctic is so important for Russia's military future, its economic future. Russia's nuclear submarines are based in the Russian Arctic. It sees future oil and gas. It sees future oil and gas,
08:13 critical minerals and a maritime route, the northern sea route, as critical to Russia's economic future. Its economic future is under question right now as it's entered at the fifth year of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. So the Arctic is very, very important. And you're absolutely right. China sees the Arctic in a much longer term arc. It understands the strategic significance, the commanding heights, and it wants to make sure it can fully benefit from the abundance of resources in the Arctic, whether that's fisheries, whether that's critical minerals on the seafloor, oil and gas, or to diversify shipping routes. Every country is affected by the Arctic. It is a global weather maker. And so, yes, we want to encourage countries to collaborate on science,
09:02 but China science is not all for science. And this is where they have a growing icebreaker fleet. They are increasingly in America's exclusive economic zone off of a last. we have to have the ice breakers, the awareness of making sure we can track and detect that behavior, particularly in U.S. waters. You warned that President Trump's pressure could damage Arctic cooperation. Instead, Denmark, Greenland, and their NATO allies have increased their defense commitments. How much did his pressure contribute to that change? I think it made a massive contribution to that.
09:42 And in some ways, that speaks volumes itself, that it took truly threatening the sovereignty of two of our NATO allies to have them take their own security more seriously. And government leaders from both countries readily admit that they had underinvested in their own Arctic security. And they've now made clear commitments to increasing that security. NATO also had been very reluctant to really engage more fully in the Arctic. And now we're seeing strong activity with NATO. It has to be a collective security action. So we have to turn this into a moment where we are working together, interoperable ways. Our NATO allies, that they're keeping their eye on that threat and not keeping one eye.
10:29 They're not quite sure how the U.S. is going to behave in the future. We want to be having everyone focusing on preparing for more activity. We have a lot of work to do. and we need to rebuild the trust and credibility that was lost because we challenged our ally sovereignty. Yeah. The U.S. has had considerable difficulties operating in our own Arctic territory. And a Canadian-led multinational military exercise last year also ran into a number of challenges. Can you talk about the forbidding conditions in the Arctic?
11:06 I think in some ways the Arctic environment is changing so much. And that, in fact, is the greatest challenge. So let's start with the shrinking of the polar ice cap. One sort of thinks, well, an ice-free Arctic, that would be easier to operate in. Actually, the ice is more dangerous as it thins, as it breaks apart. And this is why you do need icebreaker capability, particularly as more shipping activity happens in the Arctic. On land, permafrost thaw. So this frozen tundra is now warming sometimes four times faster than anywhere.
11:40 else on the earth, that makes it squishy and muddy. Buildings, runways are cracking that are built on the permafrost. That makes facilities and runways extremely challenging. It makes doing anything difficult. And this is why it's so important that we work closely with the indigenous communities that live in the Arctic. They are experiencing this transformation in their daily lives. It's changing their hunting patterns, their food, their water security. But they also are the most knowledgeable of how to work in the shifting environment and how we can incorporate them much more, not only in economic activities and prosperity. We want them to have, while they're respecting their culture and their way of life, but also engaging them in the security conversation because
12:28 their knowledge is absolutely vital. And of course, their knowledge of science and the changing environment is so important. And they may be the first to see or to warn European or Americans? Yeah, they are truly the front lines. If America decided tomorrow that the Arctic was a top national security priority, what are the biggest capabilities that we are missing? First, I would say science is the foundation of all activity in the Arctic from the military understanding the weather patterns, understanding that shifting weather patterns could change and could directly affect the lives of those doing a military exercise, or what have you incredibly important on security and economic prosperity. You have to understand the science to be able to do development in a sustainable way.
13:20 So I would say first you're going to prioritize science. You're not going to take science away. You're going to add it and you're going to integrate it as a whole of nation strategy. And we need more presence, particularly in Alaska along the Alaskan coastline and the Bering Strait. We're going to see more activity there, and we need to make sure we can detect that activity, that we can protect American territorial waters, we can protect American airspace over Alaska. And so that means more facilities. As we're talking about in Greenland, well, we need those in the Aleutian Islands, and ADAC. We need a deep water port in Nome, Alaska.
13:58 We do not have a deep water port in the American Arctic yet. So that's where we're missing, and I am hoping that between additional icebreakers that are coming, more presence in both Pacific and Atlantic Arctic, we can make sure that we are prepared for this changing Arctic. So surprising to me that the U.S. has lost the ability to build icebreakers and is now building them in collaboration with, is it Canada and Finland? Yes. We hear about Greenland's minerals. What's actually underneath Greenland and how important or valuable, is it? The greatest value globally and certainly to the eastern sea coast is the Greenland ice sheet,
14:41 which is melting, and that directly contributes to sea level rise. That is transformative to our weather. So I would say Greenland environmentally plays a very, very big role. You're asking now about critical minerals, oil and gas. We're not sure. Several years ago, there was some offshore oil and gas exploration that didn't quite prove to be what it had been hoped for and had been stopped. We know there are quite a few mining licenses to begin to mine critical minerals, rare earths in Greenland, and we believe it is a critical
15:15 mineral rare earth rich environment, but there's very limited infrastructure on Greenland. In fact, I've heard one statistic, there's only 100 kilometers of roads. So it's not just mining. It's the infrastructure to mine, and then it's not just mining the minerals. It's finding locations then for reprocessing, which is a scarcity of. So there is enormous potential. It has to be something that the Greenlandic people and government support, but this is a long horizon, you know, another 10, 15 years we could potentially see, but the potential is there. And I think it's certainly worth exploring that potential. Is there a paradox that the more countries act in the Arctic alone, the less secure that they each become?
16:02 there is not enough presence infrastructure for any one nation to do it by itself. So again, if there was a mass casualty incident, the search and rescue and oil spill response, we would need the entire community with their maritime aircraft. Everybody would have to search to do what it would take. So absolutely, which is why it's so important, is NATO members now substantially increase their defense spending in the Arctic that we make sure, even though question credibility has been profoundly shaken, how do we do that on an interoperable basis? So as Canada is developing new offshore patrol vessels, can we make sure they work interoperable with the U.S. Coast Guard?
16:43 That interoperability piece is so, so important, which is why I am calling for the creation of an Allied Arctic Shield. So we think about the Shield, shield for the North America, our allies play an incredible role in that shield. 20 years from now, what will we wish, we've done in the Arctic today. Build icebreakers have those dual use, military, and economic infrastructure ports. We wish we would have done this 15 to 20 years. And we lost, we've lost that time. That's why we can't lose the next decade.
17:19 So we would be so much more prepared for the activity that we're seeing today if we would have started 15 years ago. Interesting. Heather, what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today? my first takeaway. The Arctic is an essential part of U.S. homeland security. My second takeaway is the only way you can adequately defend the homeland in the Arctic is with our allies.
17:50 How we work with those allies, how we're prepared for this future is going to be essential. Number three is I want, and I hope the American people continue to learn more and read more and study and visit the Arctic. Understand the extraordinary transformation that's happening environmentally, of course, economically and militarily. And educated public makes the best policy, and we need much more education. Heather, this has been great. Thank you so much for joining three takeaways today.
18:29 And thank you also for your service in government. Thank you, Lynn. And it's been great talking to you. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at three takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes.
18:58 You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman and this is three takeaways. Thanks for listening.
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