Andy & Ari On3 - College Football WEEK 3 PICKS | Georgia at Tennessee, Florida at LSU, Texas A&M at Notre Dame

Episode Date: September 8, 2025

Week 3 is here! After a WILD week 2 in College Football, Andy & Ari set their sights on this week’s slate and provide all the picks for this week in today’s show. Watch HERE as Andy & Ari break down a pivotal week 3 in the College Football Season. (0:00-0:24) On Today’s Show(0:25-2:09) BetMGM(2:10-6:19) Intro: Picks through Week 2(6:20-11:04) Sarkisian on Arch(11:05-16:38) Biff Poggi to fill in for Michigan(16:39-17:28) Academy Sports + Outdoors(17:29-26:34) Clemson at Georgia Tech(26:35-29:21) PaniniAmerica.net(29:22-37:30) Wisconsin at Alabama(37:31-38:57) Gametime(38:58-50:59) Georgia at Tennessee(51:00-56:35) USF at Miami(56:36-1:01:26) Arkansas at Ole Miss(1:01:27-1:10:34) Florida at LSU(1:10:35-1:13:19) Vanderbilt at South Carolina(1:13:20-1:15:01) Duke at Tulane(1:15:02-1:21:59) Texas A&M at Notre Dame(1:22:00-1:22:20) Conclusion Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This show is also brought to you by Gametime! Take the guesswork out of buying college football tickets with Gametime.Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Swipe. Tap. Ticket. Go. Download the Gametime app today! Visit Gametime.co.  We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today.  Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube: https://youtu.be/6g2P6otx3qo Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail]

It is a Picks Monday, and we have a lot of intriguing games to pick. Georgia Tech Clemson, Wisconsin, Alabama, Texas, A&A, Georgia, Tennessee. Also, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, also Florida, LSU, and many, many more. That's right. All the lines and spreads presented by BetMGM. Let's pick some games. We have teamed up with BetMGM this. season. We'll be using bed-MGM lines to make all our picks, and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. When you join Bet-MGM, you get access to a variety of Parlay selection features like Same Game Parlay's live betting options and more. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB, as in college football, CFB, and you'll get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how that works. Download the Bet-MGM app and sign up,

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forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Annie and Ari on three. It is a pick Monday. We'll pick the games very early in the week. We're going to reserve the right to maybe change him up. Ari is coming off a just get it over with Andy. Tell them what it is. I'm a loser. I'm a loser. I'm a big loser. Everybody said, you guys need to keep track of this stuff so we know whether to follow or fade you. And I said, okay, knowing it was probably going to be very bad for me.

And I was down after week one. I am now up, though, because I went five, three, and one against the spread in week two. Ari went one, seven, and one against the spread. So your overall records for the year, I'm 11, 9, 9, and 1. Ari is 911 and 1 Yeah And he's calling 9-1-1 because Yeah I was a tough week Somewhere too

I just I had a bad week Andy And I was pretty clear about it I once went 0 for 8 On the entire graphic So it happens to the best of us Little Let me call it a bullshit

Like We The line moved a 3 and a half And the one that we tied Like that should have been You know Should have been a loss for both No, it should have been a win for me and a loss for you.

Oh, one for you. Yeah, that's right. My bad. But no, it's when we do it. Because if we had done that, I would have gotten two and a half more points on Michigan, Oklahoma than I had. I just want to go on record and say that the week went poorly for me, but I don't think my ideas were wrong.

Now, you can't call your bookie and say, hey, you can't call better than me. I think you should. Sorry, my ideas were wrong. ideas were correct you sound like billy napier to me yeah and the plan was sound it just wasn't executed properly yeah yeah and it's uncharacteristic on my part right that also sounds like billy napier um so it's you know this happens in life and gambling uh quite a bit um one and seven's a pretty terrible weekend andy and i felt it and for those who don't know i know that there's a lot of talking heads out there that are you know giving out picks and i'm playing the games i showed

Andy and River the chart from the week. It was a pretty bloody Saturday. So, you know, I wish Duke wouldn't have turned it over a few times in the red zone. That would have been great. Wish Virginia didn't throw, make three red zone trips down by four and come away with zero points in the fourth quarter of their game, including a missed field goal that would have brought it within one. I wish SMU didn't blow a 14 point lead with five minutes left, but like that happens.

Like, I was on the right side of all these games, I felt like, and it just didn't, it didn't play out. But I'm super excited to get in today. and like I guarantee that like my record will be better than yours at the end of the year like I guarantee it so um clip it river right now clip it save it i I will uh and what happened was I shouldn't have won trivia I should have won trivia trivia because I blew we we said it when the show ended on Wednesday when you beat me at trivia that this meant I was going to kill you in the picks you did I should have bet out of all of them uh because I actually played SMU I played Virginia and I

I played, well, another one, too. I played Ole Miss. That was a bad beat. I played, I mean, I feel like four of the, I mean, listen, I'm not trying to create excuses, but I had a lot of, you know, bad situations happen to me that flipped the spreads. But you know what? That's gambling. That's part of it.

And we're going to keep chugging along. I feel pretty good about where I'm headed. So let's get into that. I think this week's going to be very interesting. We get more conference play this week, which I think spices things up a little bit. we also have a couple really good non-conference games that this is more kind of good on good than we had the last few weeks. So we're not dealing with massive spreads, although there's one in particular that I think is very big for the game that it is. And so I think we'll find

out. Well, let's talk about a game that's going to have a huge spread first, UTEP, Texas, because Steve Sarkesian got asked about Arch Manning's health during his press conference. Did you see the play that the reporter was referencing? I don't know if you're not sure which play it was. There was one specific play where Arch Manning was throwing a slant route, and the ball landed at the receiver's feet, and after he let go of it, he went. He kind of winced. He went.

He didn't just kind of winced. Like, I mean, it looked like he was in a lot of pain. And I don't know. Was he wincing because he was in. in pain or was he wincing because he knew he'd thrown it badly and he was about to dirt it? That could be the case. Maybe he had to rip out a fart. I don't know what the reason for the wins was. We'll get back. That fart comment will come back around here in a second. But like it is, it looked like he was in pain and the throw was so bad that like it was a pretty short

leap to make to say the throw was that bad because it felt it hurt coming out. So again, we'll come back to that too. We'll come back around to that in second. Andy, why don't you take it from here? All right. So Steve Sarkesian was asked about Arch Manning's health in a, I got to say a strange way. And he responded with Arch Manning seemed to be having some throwing pains by the According to who? Arch. Arch said that to you? No. Oh, according to who? It just looked like he was. He doesn't have any. Is that, is there an explanation to why he was, it looked like that? I don't know. I've never filmed any of you guys when you're using the bathroom, so I don't know what faces you make when you're doing that. Sorry, you talk.

That's an interesting place for the mind to go, but I now get it because I've watched that clip like seven times. And it's now, I now, I get it. Okay. I don't get it. He's talking, he's talking about interpreting someone's facial expressions. That's what he's talking about. That's what he's talking about. He's talking about be careful interpreting a person's facial expressions. Because if you're on the toilet,

you're going to make some pretty crazy faces. Do you think you make crazy faces when you're on the toilet? Because I don't. I'm 100% certain that I make crazy faces on the toilet. Not because I'm looking at myself, but I'm just sure I am. This is the closest thing to a facial expression I make during the toughest of battles on the toilet.

You don't just, you don't bear down. You went to Arizona. You have to bear down. You don't want to make noise into the mic, but, mm. Oh, okay. Maybe that. Yeah.

But, like, I don't know if I would go, oh, like that. I mean, I've never had a kid. But sometimes you go, oh. And sometimes you go, ugh. You don't do that? I don't know. Maybe I do, and you're just unaware of it, but I don't feel like I have a theatrical reaction to go into the bathroom. I'm theatrical reacting to everything.

You know what I will say. That's just me. We're playing around right now. And I didn't watch the entire Sarkesian press conference. I plan to do it after the show. He felt testy about the question, and I thought that was suspicious. No? I think he's been getting it over and over, just not directly.

So he's probably been testy about it all weekend. Yeah. Maybe there is something to it, but we'll see. I mean, those are the types of things that reveal themselves as you play the game. I mean, it wouldn't be a season of quarterback play at Texas. if there wasn't a undisclosed shoulder injury. A giant microscope. Speaking of...

Didn't that the Quinn yours was... Didn't everybody say he was injured all of last year? Yes. Which didn't, didn't they come out and say that around... I think they came out and said it at the end of the year. I don't know that they set up before the year. Yeah. So, happening.

Yeah, there's going to be a microscope on the quarterback at Texas. It's just always going to be this way. Speaking of quarterbacks with injuries that actually existed and lingered, we will talk later about. Florida DJ Lagway when we picked the Florida LSU game I was at the Billy Napier press conference a couple of well less than an hour ago and eventful too it was interesting it was very interesting we'll talk about it when we talk to Florida LSU but but it was a defiant Billy Napier which is I don't know what I expected going in but I think it maybe wasn't that but it will talk again

we'll talk about when we pick Florida LSU I'm not sure how it affects how I feel about this game and I'm glad we have some time to talk about the other games before we get to that one, because I'm still not sure how I feel about that one yet, especially given that. So one more thing, another game we're not picking, but is fascinating. And we've talked about it a lot in the offseason because it involves Michigan and the Conor Stallion's investigation and all that. Sharon Moore is now suspended. He's suspended for the Central Michigan game this week and the Nebraska game. he has revealed who the acting head coach for Michigan will be.

Remember, it was Sharon Moore when then head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended. So who is it going to be now? It's going to be Biff Pogie. That's right. Former Michigan staffer who became the Charlotte head coach, ran a hedge fund. One of the most interesting people in college football, Biff Pogi, River. Roll a clip, please. good question um i want to keep my cigar lit no no problem he definitely kept a cigar lit for the

entire interview now that was before he'd coached a game at charlotte he ended up being fired after one and about three-quarter seasons at charlotte uh but biff's going to run the show i i don't know that that changes my opinion on how things are going to go i don't know that that does anything for me because the play callers will be the play callers and Chip Lindsay and Wink Martindale will be calling plays like they always do so I don't know that that

really changed much. That the person that they're using as the interim head coach was also Jim Harbaugh's right-hand man for a while? No. I mean, Sharon Moore was on the staff when Biff was there. I'm not saying he did anything wrong. I'm just saying it's kind of amusing to me that you're going after Sharon Moore

for his involvement. Oh, is it a middle finger to the NCAA probably that's yeah that's all i'm getting at it's just kind of a funny like well you know sharon more can't coach in this game because he deleted text messages that had nothing in them but now we're going to have the person who like helped charbaugh like turn it around at michigan as the guy who leads the way out onto the field it is kind of a thank you for putting it that way i think that's how i was trying to communicate it like a middle finger to the ncdbara a little bit well let's ask the question that actually matters though Is Biff going to wear sleeves as Michigan's acting head coach?

Yeah, I hope he doesn't. I hope not. Please don't. He's been pretty successful in life. And I feel like there are certain levels of success you can get to in life where sleeves no longer are requirement, right? Like, I don't know if that's a dollar figure or a certain accomplishment that's not monetary.

I don't know what it would be. But I know I'm not there yet, but I think he is. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, but I am not all that moved by this. I think that Central Michigan is actually a team that I will probably be competitive for the Mac title. That's not the easiest team that they could be facing. Yeah, they'll be feisty. They did a good game against San Jose State, big win week one.

Now, Pitt put it on them pretty good last week. Yeah, we're not picking this game, but I think I would lean towards, you know, central Michigan covering, but I don't know. It's 27 and a half points. So, I mean, it's a lot of points. And the Michigan, the Michigan defense, or the Michigan offense, we saw, you know, obviously Oklahoma exposed vulnerabilities in it, but that's also with Oklahoma's extremely athletic defensive players who are going to be very good.

I mean, I can see a 4217 type game, you know, where it's like a 25, you know, deal. Oh, yeah. But, you know, Michigan is an interesting topic. We spoke a lot about them on Saturday. I'm very interested to see how they progress as a team after what we saw in Oklahoma on Saturday night. Now, Oklahoma deserves a lot of the credit defensively for, you know, making them uncomfortable and doing it, doing it the way that they did. But I wonder if Michigan's offense is going to, you know, progressively get much better as the year goes on,

or if this is a situation where it's like get him live reps, Bryce Underwood, what I'm talking about, and then really go. into the portal in the offseason and update his or you know bring in some receivers i can help them out a little bit because i i do think that if you're a michigan fan you might be kind of bummed by what went on on saturday night and rightfully so but also if you look around they're clearly spending money in nil they're clearly committed to winning at a high level think about how they've just reacted with all the NCAA stuff they are pro football there i don't know that they would have reacted about that NCAA stuff the same way in 2010

And, you know, you have a defensive coordinator and a defense that's going to be very good, traditionally, year over year. I think that they're one spending spree away of adding four or five players in the portal from being right back in this thing. Not that they're dead now, but I think that I'm comfortable playing, and it's my opinion that they are not one of the three teams that will win the Big Ten this year. They're not in that conversation. I think they're a notch below, and I think that's kind of what we expected. They didn't, you know, they didn't improve their whole offense. And I think that we're finding out in college football to be a really, really good team. Not an average team or an above average team, but a really good to great team.

You have to have certain players that help your quarterback out. And I'm not sure that Michigan has those guys. Well, we will find out 27.5 point spread in that game. Sharon Moore won't be there. Biff Poggi will be your head coach for the Michigan Wolverines for the next two weeks. So that means he's always also the coach against Nebraska, which is going to be absolutely fascinating. Before we get to the picks, though, I want to tell you about Academy Sports and Outdoors, huddle up football fans, tailgate season is here, and nobody gets SEC fans ready for game

day like Academy Sports and Outdoors. Swing by your local academy store or shop online and academy.com to find grills, jerseys, and more fun can't lose, and neither can you with tailgate gear from Academy. Academy Sports and Outdoors is the official sporting goods and outdoor retailer of the SEC. So if you are going to, I don't know, Georgia, Tennessee in Knoxville, if you are going to Arkansas, Ole Miss in Oxford, if you are going to Florida, LSU, in Baton Rouge, Vandy, South Carolina, and Columbia, go to Academy Sports and Outdoors first and get yourself completely ready to tailgate. Ari, we will talk about those games in a second. But first, we start in the ACC. Clemson at Georgia Tech, and I got to say, the spread looks like what I

think it should look like. So Clemson's favored by four and a half on the road. Like, I'm glad this is below a touchdown because I think what we saw with Clemson and Troy was fairly unnerving. And I think we know Georgia Tech is a pretty good team. Now, Haynes King didn't play last week because of a lower body injury, but the assumption is he's going to be back for this game. And the line seems to suggest he's going to be back for this game. You know, I think it's, actually good with the way that Haines King plays the game, he should do like the NBA load management, Andy, where it's like, okay, well, we're going to the game that we're not going to lose. Let's just give his body a break because when he goes out and plays Clemson in two weeks,

he's going to bash his face into every Clemson defender a hundred times. And he's going to, it's a reckless abandon in the way that he plays. And I love it. And I love that Haines King has been recognized nationally from fans as a badass because he plays like one. Um, and, you know, maybe in the old days where, uh, Clemson would have been favored by 29 and a half in this game, uh, this allows us to appreciate and recognize other really good players that don't play at the traditional powers. Uh, and I think he's the poster child for that, right? Um, yeah. That said, like, are we out on Clemson now? Like, is that it? Like, are we done with them? Like, no, I'm, I'm not done with them. And the Troy game was a, was a terrible game. But you also had, the lightning delay. There are a lot of things going on there.

Really fluky pick six, that if that doesn't happen, the final score looks really different. But Clemson's offense was worrisome. Them being unable to put points on the board until the second half, really, against Troy, is a problem.

Yeah. It is really hard to properly contextualize these games because there's so many explanations for why. It's an overmatched opponent. It's a weekend. after an emotional loss at home. You have a lightning delay. Like, you know, is it because there are real issues with Clemson's offense or is it just a sleeper?

You know, and I don't know how to sift through that. Right. You know, Clemson's often. I think, I think, but LSU is really good, I think. So, like, that's also understandable. Like, are we really, like, all year, all offseason, we got done telling you, hey, you know, Clemson's a virtual lock to make the playoff. Even if they lose to LSU, there's nobody.

in the ACC that's probably going to be able to beat this team. Like, are we going to I'm not abandoning that thought process yet. I'm not either, but the thing is there is a chance Florida State's better than them and that they play them in the regular season. Yeah. And if Florida State is better than

Clemson and beats Clemson, then you've got a problem because you've got to then do you even get to play Miami? Or does Florida State go play Miami? And then we'll see, you know, What's Louisville?

What's Georgia Tech? I mean, Georgia Tech could have a say in this here. Georgia Tech, you know, so Haynes King didn't dress for the guard, I'm sorry, dressed for the Gardner Web game, but did not play. Aaron Filo took the snaps. If you listen to the show during the offseason, you heard us say, because we got to ask the question about what teams really confident in their backup? Georgia Tech was the only answer we could come up with at the time.

I think we've got some different answers now. But Aaron Philo, who played pretty well when he had to come in last year, was good. So, like, I'm not as worried, not as worried about them. Even if Haynes King does get banged up again, I still think they're going to be fine. Remember what happened to Georgia Tech against Colorado, and this is, I think, a very interesting point about this particular team. They turn the ball over three times in the first eight minutes against Colorado. And Colorado turned, I don't think they turn all of those into points, but they turn some of them into points. You should not be able to win a game.

if you turn the ball over three times in the first eight minutes. Like, that should doom you. And Georgia Tech did not let it doom them on the road. They came back, won that game at the end. So I just, I like this team. I love, I love the culture that Brent Key is built there. And so, I mean, we have to go out of our way. And I don't know if we have given enough credit to Brent Key,

in terms of, like, coaches that deserve, you know, to be publicly recognized. But when you think about what Georgia Tech was from a, culture standpoint four years ago, and you think about what you think now when you're playing Georgia Tech, think about how much different that feels. It's unbelievable. It used to just be a walkthrough game, and now it's like, you better wear extra paths because you're going to get your face beat in. That isn't an easy thing to accomplish in a short amount of time, and his tenure there is

still a short amount of time to completely revamp everything. And I'll tell you, Ari, I knew. I knew pretty quickly that he was going to be pretty good. I didn't know if he'd be this good. But I did a story, this was back when we were working at the athletic, about when he took over for Jeff Collins. And the first thing he did when he got the job, like within he meets with the AD,

the AD gives him the interim job. He gets back to the complex and immediately begins revamping their punt team because they kept getting punts blocked before they fired Collins. And so he revamps the punt team on the fly. like the week of the game which you don't do that like you that is what you do in spring practice you don't make changes to that sort of thing during the season he made drastic changes to it and it ended up working and ended up they I don't believe they got another punt blocked all season and had good punt coverage and like that's when you know

this is a person who who really knows how to drill down on the details but as you were saying what he's done in the macro which is creative a program where you see them on the schedule and you're like, oh, crap, this is going to hurt. It's that feeling of like, oh, crap. Like, it's a good way of putting it. It's like, oh, we're going to, this is going to be a painful game. And if we win, it's going to be hard. And if we win, we're going to be banged up.

And if we win, we're going to have to play hard-nosed football for four quarters to instill that personality into a team that despite being located in the heart of Atlanta was kind of hopeless. It's pretty remarkable. And I do question at times, you know, in the past, the debates that we've all had internally of like, is Georgia Tech a good job or is Georgia Tech an impossible job? It's like if you can create that hard-nosed, I don't know, for lack of better term, like, Big Ten feeling of like hard-nosed football in the ACC in Atlanta, can't you, there are enough

in the Georgia area that would appeal to that aren't good enough to go play at Alabama or Georgia, aren't there, like enough to make them a tough out in the ACC in an annual basis? Brent Key has proven that. Brent Key's already proven that. And then it can get better from here. So now, Haynes King's probably going to play. I think this spread is where it should be.

If this spread were something like Clemson by nine and a half or Clemson by 10, I would be picking Georgia Tech easily. But because of where it's at, and I feel like they put it in the right place, I'm going to pick Clemson to cover. ever here. The spread seems low to me. This is, I'm taking Clemson here too.

I don't know if we're stepping a foot into a bear trap. The spread to me feels like it should be around 10. I still feel like Clemson has a lot. See, it doesn't feel like it should be around 10 to me. Like, if it were Clemson plus 10, I'd be picking Georgia Tech all day. You know, I don't know if I can get froggy. I'm getting froggy in one of our picks later. Like, I'm going to pick something that is.

is going to get clipped and I'm going to be mocked for it if I'm wrong. And I've known I'm going to do it. Genius is right. But yeah, yeah, that's the thing. Do I put myself out there or do I just pick a game against the spread and then if I'm wrong, no one notices or do I actually. Put yourself out there. Yeah.

When we get there, when we get there, you'll see maybe tell me I made a mistake, but I'm going to do it because you know what? It's a podcast and we're having fun. Exactly. Four is four and a half four, I think is a, I think Clemson's five points better than them. And if they're not, then we've been completely wrong. about who they were and what they were supposed to be. And I can rip my ticket of 22 to 1 of Clemson winning the national title in half.

So I think Clemson's still a very good team. They've had a rough go of it, but they're going to be competitive. And I think they can match that intensity. And what do you want with a hard-nosed football team? You want a really good defensive line. You want athletic people in your secondary. I think Clemson possesses both of those things. They don't have Eric Singleton anymore.

I don't know. I don't know. I'm going Clemson. All right, we're both on Clemson and that game. Before we go to Tuscaloosa for a game that we really need to talk about. I want to tell you about Panini. Panini, America.net is where you go to start your collection. The most collectible sports cards on the planet.

Tyler Warren pulled an autograph Tyler Warren out of the luminance pack the other day. Tyler Warren, I said this before the Colts Dolphins game started. I said, hot take, Tyler Warren is going to be the best player on the Colts this year. I don't know if that's true. They all look pretty good yesterday, but Tyler Warren had a great game. So got that one. J.J. McCarthy, brilliance from the PRISM series. We're going to see him tonight on Monday Night Football, but this is him in his beautiful Michigan uniform.

And, yeah, a little Cooper to Gene autograph. The man scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Can I show up some of mine now? When you do Panini ads, all I do is think about, will he shut up so I can show my cards off? Look, show your cards. Show us your cards, sorry, show us your cards. You know, we got our, and I can't remember which ones I've shown, but do you see this bad boy right here? I bought this in the off season because Jalen Hertz is very underrated in terms of his resale right now.

Like, he is much cheaper than other quarterbacks for some reason. He's a Super Bowl champion, and I think they'll play for another few during his tenure. This is flawless. That's a high-end product. That's an on card. And you know what there is? There's a sapphire gem in the bottom of that card. I don't know if you can see that.

That's a precious. Very nice. Did you hear he said, he said Roll Sooners during his introduction the other night? Did he? Yeah. Reping Alabama and Oklahoma. So you go to Panini America.

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That's one to 10. guy scored a touchdown over the weekend. I'm just going through, I'm just printing money over here. I don't know what to tell you. It was a flower scored last night. I showed you this one. That's a fractal RPA. Look at that patch.

Look at that. Look at that relic. Come on. There's nothing more. Beautiful. Don't you want to play fantasy football? But one more. One more.

One more. All right. Johnston cracked ice out of contenders optic. PSA 10. Are you kidding me? Two touchdowns? Two tuddies? All right.

All right. I love it. I love it. The fact that he's now kind of being what he was supposed to be when he came out of TCU, that's a big difference for the Chargers. So we'll see. You can buy the dip in cards.

It's not just stocks. You can buy the dip in cards. You absolutely can. And Quentin Johnson had the dropseys for two years, and now he doesn't. So it's a big little bit, and I scooped a few of them. There you go. But the Jalen Hertz thing's really interesting. So let's go to one of the schools that Jalen Hertz played for, and that's Alabama.

We talked a ton about Alabama after they lost a Florida State. What is this team? Is it the same team as last year? Are they not as hard-dosed as they were during the Nick Saban era? Are they going to let themselves take the punishment all year? Are they going to start delivering the blows? Well, they certainly delivered the blows against Louisiana Monroe, but again, that's Louisiana Monroe.

So I don't know if we learned anything there. Wisconsin comes to Alabama. Alabama is a 20-and-a-half-point favorite. it. Now, we think this is going to be a Danny O'Neill game for Wisconsin. We're not sure Billy Edwards is going to be able to come back. Remember, he got hurt in the season opener, and we haven't seen him since then. So if it's a Danny O'Neill game, I don't have a lot of confidence that Wisconsin can cover this, because we were at Wisconsin, Alabama in Madison last year. If If our theory is correct that this is essentially the same Alabama team as last year, insanely talented, we'll get up for some games and not get up for others, then they should win this game easily because Wisconsin couldn't do anything against them last year, playing with its backup quarterback most of the time because Tyler Van Dyke got hurt during the game.

It feels like deja vu just in Tuscaloosa. Yeah. So let's start with Alabama's last game. Did you see after the game was over? They won 73 to nothing against ULM, right? 73 nothing, I think, was a score. Bama's official Twitter account posted a picture and a score graphic that said Still Bama.

And they got absolute clown, clown, because you don't get to claim you're still Bama when you roll 73 to nothing against the team that isn't physically equipped to be on the same field as you. And I get that you're feeling good. It was positive. You know, the worst thing that you possibly could have seen is another, is like a Clemson Troy scenario, right? After coming off of a loss like they had against Florida State

in week one, you didn't want to see like a floundering yawn fest, right? You wanted to see a team fire to the football and really play like they gave a shit. And I thought that that was the most important takeaway from that game. And let's not forget, I can. can't remember if we picked the ULM game, but it was a trendy trendy pick to take the 37 and a half. A lot of people thought, you know,

this is going to be a Bama team that struggles offensively this year. And even though they're playing an overmatch team, 37 and a half points is a hell of a lot to win by. I'm going to ride the downward trend. And you people got torched. I think they were covering the 38 at halftime, weren't they? Were they up 42-0?

Oh, yeah. Had 583 total yards. Like, how much can you take away from a blowout win like that. I think you can make the case that probably not. Austin Mack went eight for 10 to, uh, for 80 yards and two touchdowns in Keel and Russell, the freshman four for six for two tuttees. Like everybody that played in that game played at a high level. And I feel like I am more willing to buy back into Alabama being really good than I was a

week ago. And I don't know if that's false hope. I thought that they had a look in their eye that they did not have against Florida State. We talked about whether or not, Alabama can find that again. This is a very hard game to pick. I don't know that I want to fade them right now. I don't know if I want to fade them right now. Am I buying too much into a win? They still have very good players.

And that's the question. Not very good. That's the question. Because if this was the Wisconsin of early Paul Christ era or the Brett Bilema era Wisconsin. 20 points, no doubt about it. 20 points you're picking Wisconsin all day if you get 20 points. But now I don't, I just don't know, even if this is the,

even if this is an Alabama team that's going to go 9 and 3 or 8 and 4, and we don't know if it is or not. But even if it is, the Alabama team that went 9 and 3 last year beat Wisconsin 42 to 10 and could have beaten them by a lot more. I don't think Wisconsin's appreciable be better. Once again, we think Wisconsin is going to be playing with a backup quarterback. That was on the road. We were there.

It was a really, really bad game. I don't know if that's clouding my judgment. I don't know if ULM is clouding my judgment, but I think I'm going to lay the points here. I'm with you. I'll take Alabama to cover here. And I know it's boring pod that we pick the same way each time. But again, we don't, Andy, I promise you.

we don't we don't prepare these beforehand we don't go oh if you're taking them i'm taking no i i just i feel like it's going to be the same game as last year yeah i'm with you and i don't know if it'll be the same game i just don't know if wisconsin has enough pop to to make this competitive if alabama plays well well and that's you know if that's what happens if they're just completely outclass that is on luke fickle so that's another thing we need to pay attention to keep track of. But, you know, if Alabama plays the way it did against Florida State, this will be competitive for a little while.

It will be, because Wisconsin will be able to move the ball a little bit. But if Alabama has buttoned that part up, I don't see a path. But even if Alabama plays like they played against Florida State, there's a chance they can win this game by three touchdowns. Yeah, I'm thinking if you pick Wisconsin here, you are fading Bama not playing well. You're predicting a very bad

Alabama season if you're picking Wisconsin. And I'm not ready to jump to that point yet. I want to see Alabama against Georgia before I make any bold predictions about Alabama. Long enough to realize that like it's within this stuff happens all the time and then Bama goes out and wins a huge SEC game.

And then like we forget about it. Like me breaking the shackles of prisoners of the moment. Like I I really, really don't want to just be like, oh, they lost to Florida State. They stink. Like, I, no, you'd rather be they beat Louisiana Monroe, 73 to nothing. They're awesome. No, it's not that they're awesome.

I still think that they're an inherently flawed team that is, I don't think they're going to win the SEC. But to think that like every good team in the SEC is just going to beat the crap out of them this year, I think is a mistake. So, and Wisconsin doesn't have any juice to me at all. And it's a shame what's going on there. I just don't know the direction of the program. Maybe somebody who's a huge Wisconsin fan can write us a long email and we can read on the Andy or Andy and Ari show. But it doesn't, I don't even know who they are.

I'm not sure they do. I don't know who they are. Yeah, I think that's part of the problem. I think Alabama knows who it's supposed to be. It's just a matter of getting there. So this is a game where they can work on that because they play Wisconsin and then they're off and then they play George. Georgia. And that game will tell us an awful lot about Alabama. And the stretch that Alabama goes

into after the Wisconsin game. So they take that week off. And this is consecutive weeks now. Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina before an off week before LSU. That is a really tough stretch. And if you are the team we saw in Tallahassee, you'll struggle during that stretch. So this is the time to get that stuff figured out. Yeah. Yeah. Let's see if we can get on a different side of something here. Let's argue. I'm tired. All right. All right. So Wisconsin, Alabama, we're both on Alabama. Before we head to Knoxville, I want to tell you about game time. Do you want to be at the game in Knoxville, at Georgia, Tennessee? Download the game time app. Type in Tennessee football. And you can just click on it. Or if you want to go to Notre Dame, Texas,

A&M, type in Texas A&M football and click on Texas A&M at Notre Dame. And then you can see all of the seats in Notre Dame stadium that you could have. There are seats below $300 right now if you want to get into Texas A&M Notre Dame this week, which is pretty spectacular because I'm telling you, the Notre Dame fans and the Texas A&M fans and a lot of money in that crowd. I expected the seats to cost a little bit more. So that's actually not really bad. And when you're on the GameTime app, you can look exactly at where you would be sitting.

You click the seat, and it shows you a photo of the stadium, and you can kind of, if you move your phone, it'll be like you're turning your head in that seat. It's pretty amazing. Also, the number you see, that price, that is the price you'll pay. They don't tack on a bunch of extra fees afterwards. You hit that price. You pay. You've got your ticket for that price. So download the GameTime app.

We're doing the code staples, and you get $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply, of course. Code staples for $20 off your first purchase. go to game time it is exactly what it says you're going to pay no surprises and you get tickets to every game you want to go to so where do you want to go this weekend just open the game time app and figure it out we are going to go to knoxville right now Georgia at tennessee Georgia is favored by three and a half on the road and this is a fascinating game this is a fascinating game because Tennessee kind of left for dead in the off season because they lost Nico,

they lost all this, but they've played really well the first two weeks. Georgia, meanwhile, if you look at the dog's HQ message board, lots of critiques of offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo, lots of critiques of quarterback, Gunner Stockton. Ari, is this the time Tennessee breaks through against the Bulldogs for the first time since the Dobnail boot game? You know, when I, before we started the show, I thought the spread of this game was seven, and I oversold how frocky I was going to be.

Oh, boy. I'm picking Tennessee to win the game, not just the points. Are you going to take the money line? You're going to go money line or do you want the points? Well, before I go money line, I want to know, because we haven't set this in stone. Do I get extra points if I win a money line bet? How does that work? I think we should each get, yeah, I think we should each get a half or something.

Because, like, I pick Miami money line against Notre Dame, so I want credit for that, too. So here's what's going to happen. I'm going to bet Tennessee to win, and I get one and a half points towards in my record, which maybe could get confusing. I don't know. Well, you and I can just keep track, you and I can just keep track of how many money lines that we've picked and won with. So I've only got the one. I have the Notre Dame Miami game. I picked Miami money line.

And that game I asked you. it still counts as a loss in my loss column. No, because you pick the money line. Yeah, no, no. That's what I'm saying. If Georgia wins by three, I don't get the credit for Tennessee covering those spreads, what I'm saying. Oh, oh, I got you. Okay.

No, okay. If you pick an underdog money line and hit, then no picking favorites on the money line. Like, that's a cop-out. And I thought they were a bigger underdog. The line move, I thought it opened at six or five and a half. People must be thinking what I'm thinking. So, but like picking an underdog that's a three and a half point dog to win outright isn't as juicy as if they're a seven point dog. So I apologize for hyping it up.

But I think that I'm buying Tennessee stock and I'm selling Georgia stock in terms of- So this was Georgia minus seven yesterday. So Sunday afternoon, this was Georgia minus seven. It is now Georgia minus three and a half. And I believe that the Tennessee money line is plus 135. Is that right, Perouse River? So plus 135 on the on the Tennessee money line. A lot of people had the same idea you did.

They looked at this thing and said that is way too many points. Way too many points. Yeah. I don't think that Georgia, after what we've seen this year, is in a position to be giving anyone a touchdown. Sorry, Ari, Ari, Ari, Ari. So, Jermad McCoy, probably not coming back for this game. That's Tennessee's best corner.

They've also got another cornerback injured. The hope was initially when, so McCoy got hurt, I believe, in January. The hope was he'd be able to get back for this game. He's not quite ready, it seems. So that's a tough loss for Tennessee because they were hoping that they'd have him back for this. but I don't know does that make a difference because we've seen Gunner Stockton kind of struggle and I saw like the Georgia folks

and Kirby Smart said this after the game. He said, I want to see the Gunner Stockton that I see in practice in the games because I'm not seeing the same person right now. And that's not what I want to hear from the head coach. Well, I don't get to see Gunner Stockton in practice. I've seen Gunner Stockton in the games. And I don't think that he's bad,

but I don't think he's a bad, but I don't think he's lightning rod i think that he's kind of just existing right now and when you go play in knoxville you know unfortunately i've never been but i know what it's like i've seen it on tv i felt the alabama tennessee crowd a few years ago when they won that game through my television speakers i've never i've never in my entire life been more remorseful for missing an event than when they beat alabama for the first time under high goal um that was that was a crazy i wasn't at that one but i've been at some i've been in a game where the stadium completely shook i was at the Florida game in Nealyn Stadium.

And when Collins Cooper missed the field goal in overtime, it felt like an earthquake. And that is Tennessee when it gets going. And it is one of the toughest places to play. Now, the Georgia defense has been the kryptonite for this Josh Hyple offense. And actually, up until that Ole Miss Georgia game we saw had been the kryptonite for this offense in general. Remember, this is the old Baylor-Vier and shoot. But we were at that old Miss game where the offense worked fine against Georgia. So what that seems to mean is if you can beat them in the trenches or you can compete with them in the trenches, that offense is not

it's not that that defense just destroys that offense or just shuts down that offense. So I think that my thought process is I think Georgia could win the SEC and it's still a very good team and I'm never going to disrespect Kirby Smart or what he's built there. But I think that we as a community in college football have just crowned Georgia

the FEC favorite because of the trajectory they were on two years ago and the sport has changed and they have changed with it to a certain extent where the reason why Georgia's defense was kryptonite to Tennessee's offenses because it was kryptonite to everybody they played. They kicked the crap out of everybody.

Because they just had better players. I don't know how much I can take from like the Hendon Hooker game and be like, oh, that's going to be applied to this. You know, that's said. No, it's not schematic. That's the point I was trying to make. Yeah. When Ole Miss played them last year in Oxford,

running the same offense essentially. It went great. Yeah. It went great because the personnel were not that far apart. They were, you know, they were very close. And I don't know, like, the one thing that could get me is if David Sanders, the right tackle who's making his first start as a true freshman, has a rough outing. Like that, that, like Joe, I don't know, as fun as it is to prop up Joey Aguilar as the gunslinger who can hit people downfield. He also has a propensity to throw into traffic or make throws.

Gunslingers are great when they're playing bad teams. Gunslingers are scary when they're playing good defenses. And if they're playing a good defense, like this could. That's where this could blow up in my face, right? Like, I'm putting a lot of faith that Joey Aguilar will be able to hit some throws maybe that Nico wouldn't have been able to downfield or didn't, not wouldn't be able to, didn't last year. And they'll be able to hit some plays that keep this close and force Georgia to score

them. If you outscore them, if you look at the over under a 49 and a half, like this strikes me as a 28-20 type game, right? If Tennessee can be a team that's, scores early and puts the pressure on Georgia, I like their chances of being the team that scores 28. I like the under on those, too. So you're taking Tennessee Money Line or Tennessee?

Tennessee Money Line. I mean, now that it's three and a half, I'm going to, I wanted to do it when it was seven. I wanted to, like, I wanted to make people. Well, I am, I am glad you said that because I was going to pick Georgia minus seven. And now I get to pick Georgia minus three and a half. Because I think this is a classic, classic situation where Tennessee has a couple good games and we haven't seen them play this early in the season in a while but

tennessee has a couple good games we haven't really seen them play anybody yet and then kirby reminds everybody who daddy is so that's true kirby is daddy like i don't want anybody to think that i've lost sight of that um but here's the other thing and we it was really late at night you know saturday is a really long day for us like we're all in writing and you had a billy napier column i was cranking out big, big stories on Illinois. It wasn't the same type of day for both of us, but we're up late. And by the time we start doing our show, like it's, you're fried a little bit. I don't want to lose track of the opinion that I have, and it's in a column that I wrote

on, on three Monday morning, which is if the Big 12 is, or if the SEC shares something in common with the Big 12 and that teams that we don't think can win every game, how does that manifest? Where does that manifest? That manifests in games like this, where Georgia isn't just going to go in and win every game in tough environments. Gunter Stockton's first road game, they're just going to go and beat Tennessee in that environment because they're Georgia. Like, if that's still the case, then Georgia has a chance to win the national title this year. And I assume that they do.

But if you believe what I said and you agree with a take that the SEC is going to be kind of sloppy this year, that it's going to be a bloodbath, then this is where you pick. Those are the spots you pick, right? You don't, everybody just assumes Georgia is going to win. You're assuming Georgia is going to win. But like, we're not doing that this year. I'm not doing it this year. So, yeah, I'm going to take Tennessee and I'll either look kind of smart or I'll look like an idiot. I don't know.

It happens. But Tennessee, the second that game was on the schedule, I knew I was going to take them with the points. I knew seven was a lot. And like, now the spreads three and a half for a reason, man. Like, listen to it. I'm just happy. I get to take Georgia three and a half instead of Georgia seven. I guarantee Georgia minus three and a half

is going to be the biggest public play in the weekend because that's how people bet and that's not how you will have to call our guy John Ewing and find out it's going to be very very fun this game is going to be awesome I cannot wait to see Nealyn's dating for this game

it's going to rule do you hate my premise or do you kind of see where I'm going with it at least are you like Oh I know exactly where you're going to this no I don't think you're insane at all I think we've staked out opposite sides for kind of similar reasons.

Like we both have logical reasons why we've staked out the side we've staked out. And I get, like, you can convince me of your point. And I think I could probably make a rational argument where you'd say, I see why you're picking Georgia. Yeah, if Georgia's defensive players just throw people around and they're George's D. Yeah.

I'm never going to come into a post-game podcast. Right, it's going to be a slog. They're just going to lock them down and boa constrict for them. Yeah. That's what I'm suspecting happens. I could be wrong. I promise you, Andy, on Saturday night, when we're together talking about the games, I'm not going to, in Georgia, if Georgia wins, I'm not going to be like, oh, my God, how did Georgia win?

Like, you know, exactly, exactly. And I'm not going to be stunned if Tennessee wins either. But I'm happy that we don't know what's going to happen in this game. Because for the longest time, we knew exactly what would happen in this game. I love it the television windows at 3.30, man. right at the right time. That's what an SEC football has played. Yeah, they trained you to do that for 20 years,

trained us to watch those for 20 years. ESPN, you don't have to mess it up. Like, you don't need to move those games to 7.30 now. It's the perfect time slot for me. I think it's the perfect time slot for a big game. I know people love night games, and I know that tailgating for an extra three hours while watching the other games is fun.

I'm not saying that night games aren't great. but the fourth quarter is dark outside game is the best because it becomes dark you get the night game atmosphere when it matters the most that's right that's right next up we head to the state of florida where usf coming off its upset win of florida goes to miami now usf was a 19 and a half point underdog when it played florida one out right USF is now a 16.5 point underdog against the hurricanes. We've talked about USF's situation here. They don't necessarily have to win this game to then go on and win the American and make the playoff.

If they did win this game, though, Ari, then if they won the American, they would be in the playoff. Like, there would be no question about it. It wouldn't matter what their record was in the American as long as they won it. Yeah. So I have already been on record. I don't know if you saw you did see you tweeted out the clip of you and I discussing Florida on Miami's trajectory

and everybody the Miami fans found that this week and rightfully so when you have a take that doesn't age well It's a long off season we have a lot of chances to say stupid things and we said something very stupid Yeah well you know what it's also week two And I don't know that it's stupid we'll see I suspect it was stupid It's probably stupid

But that's part of this job too It's like we're not batting a thousand on correct takes all the time and you know what maybe i'm in this job because i have bad takes all the time but they're at least they're entertaining takes but i wonder if this is the weekend where everything kind of regresses to the mean a little bit where south florida who was a completely overlooked entity coming into the year people didn't know who byron brown was so they watched them play boise um actually comes out and proves that it's a legitimate playoff contender in a way that they are better than people give them credit for and

then Miami isn't as dominant as they were in their first game against Notre Dame or they have a sleeper game or whatever. I'm sure they're probably quite awake now for what happened to Florida. They don't want it to happen to them. But you have a competitive football game in the state of Florida that ends with like Miami winning 38 to 22 or something. Like I think that I am picking South Florida here because I have respect for them as a team, but that also isn't a disrespect for Miami.

me, I think it's going to be a tough Florida game. Now, I don't know if South Florida is just going to come out and just be completely exhausted and it took every ounce of energy physically and emotionally to beat Florida on the road and that they won't be able to, like, get up again for a second game in a row like this. But I think that it's possible that South Florida is just a playoff team this year from the group of five. And when you play a play a playoff, like Boise wouldn't have been a 16.5 point favorite on the road against Miami last year. What if they're this year's Boise?

They don't have Gentie, but what if Byron Brown is just sensational? It's entirely possible. It's also possible that this Miami team is a team that beats you in low-scoring games. Now, obviously, we're not going to learn much from Bethune Cookman last week. But if their defense is considerably better, they might be the kind of team that tries to squeeze the life out of you. And they're not trying to run up the score on you because they don't want to make mistakes on offense. they want to play conservatively on offense because they know they have a good defense. And so that could keep the score down, which with a spread this high, it's really hard to cover that.

What a world that would be. That's Miami this year. Oh, no. Conservatively on offense because their defense is a good team. I didn't see that one. Last year, USF actually played them tough for three quarters or two and a half quarters. And then Cam Ward were crazy and they couldn't stop them. But Miami's offense is different this year.

Now, I'm very excited about what Malachi Tony can be. So there's a chance that Miami's offense gets better and better each week. So mind that before we make any major decisions. What if Miami has a really good offense and a really good defense? That's possible, too, right? Right. They're a national title contender, which one of the three best teams in college football this year. And we just didn't say it coming.

Yep. And that's what makes this game so interesting because I do think, I think USF is good. think they're going to give them a really good fight. And Miami probably, especially because USF beat Florida, is going to be on high alert. So you're probably going to get the best version of Miami, which is weird because you would have looked at the schedule and said, oh, they might overlook USF because they've got Florida the next week. But now, well, USF and Florida played, who are you more worried about?

The team that won the game. So I think you're going to get. get the best version of Miami. I agree with you that I think this is a very tough spread to cover and I think USF is good. That said, what if Miami is what you just said? What if Miami the offense gets better, the defense is improved, and they are just the team that we thought last year's team was supposed to be. I'm going to take Miami to cover here. And I realize taking Florida to cover against USF made me look really, really stupid. But I am going to take Miami to cover here just because I do think there's also a letdown spot here for USF.

Huge win. But I know Askolish is a very good coach. I know he's going to get them up because the opportunity in front of them, if they can win this game, they're in such a great position for the rest of the season. It's huge. But again, I don't think Miami's going to be surprised here. So I will take Miami to cover. Ari, let us move on. Arkansas and Ole Miss.

So Arkansas has looked very good in both the games we've seen. That played the greatest of competition, but they've looked quite good so far. Ole Miss struggled with Kentucky before finally knocking them out there at the end. Obviously, Mark Stoops with the backdoor cover. But you knew Ole Miss. You went. Austin Simmons went out of that game,

looked like an ankle. How confident are we in Ole Miss? This is a big spread. This is eight and a half points for Ole Miss at home. How confident are we in Ole Miss after watching them against Kentucky? Last week I was very confident in Ole Miss. And that was, you know, I don't know if you and your spouse do this at night. Probably not.

Maybe I'm weird, but sometimes my wife and I will be like, what was the rose and thorn of your day? We never do that. Okay. What was the best thing that happened to you and what was the worst thing that happened to you? You know, it's just called, you know, emotional intimacy, Andy. When we go to bed, it's like, it's like, all right, all right. I've got to be better about asking her every day.

We don't ask every day, but it needs to be a thing. My thorn on Saturday was watching Ole Miss play Kentucky. That was the worst part of my day. And it wasn't just because of how it ended. It was miserable to watch the entire game. Right. And, like, I don't know if Kentucky just has some weird, like, voodoo energy over old miss or what it was but i thought that old miss was going to be a much

sharper team than we got and they ended up getting there and covering the spread before blowing it at the end but if you guys could pull up our texts from the day i think i said like they are going to bury me alive this old miss team is going to be the reason i am deceased after this and i'm doing it again Andy. I'm doing it again. A and a half is not a big spread. They shouldn't, they should be able to beat Arkansas by 10 at home, no. It's a big spread. And the last time they played Arkansas in Oxford, they won 2720. And Ole Miss was a much better team than Arkansas that year. Yeah. Now, last year in Fayetteville, it was a blowout. It was a blood bat. There was 6331. Ole Miss. So I don't think there's a pattern here that's as easily identifiable as the one that Lane Kiffin,

pointed out last week when he said the last four Kentucky games have been decided by four points or less. I don't think there's an easily identifiable pattern here with this one. Well, I will say last week you thought that the bet of the week was Arkansas State plus 23 against Arkansas. Did you see the final score of that game? I did. I didn't. Yeah, Arkansas covered very easily. 56 to 14. They dropped 50 points. in both of their games. Now, obviously, Alabama, A&M, and Arkansas State are very different from playing on the road at Ole Miss. But do you think that Arkansas from those two games is a better team than we anticipated? Because I anticipated a four-win team this year.

No, I thought they were going to be like a six or seven-win team potentially. So I think they're pretty good. Okay. So here's their schedule just to, and if River you have it, you can throw it up so the people watching can visualize it. Ole Miss on the road Memphis on the road which is a tough game

at home against Notre Dame on the road at Tennessee home against Texas A&M at home against Auburn Mississippi State LSU Texas and Missouri give me your six wins on that one Andy

well they've already got two yeah those are the two Memphis is tough okay it's not a lot of wins Mississippi State yeah maybe although they didn't need Arizona State

this is when I said I anticipated I'll take Arkansas there you go to win I'm not taking the money line hell no no no no I want I want all of those eight and a half points it's easy to say in theory I see a six win team because they do usually win six games but against this schedule I see a full they got to surprise you and this is

this is the part where maybe they surprise me so I'm going to take Arkansas to cover here and I'm going to take another miserable viewing experience, Ole Miss, minus eight and a half. And if they're up by 10, and Arkansas kicks a field goal at the end, I will emerge into traffic. I just like, I can't live through that again.

But Ole Miss, I think, is at least 10 points better than Arkansas at home. You know, at least you would think. And Austin Simmons, who did get banged up and missed time late in the game, Lane Kiffin said he could have come back into the game if they needed him to. They didn't. He should be fine. Give me Ole Miss, and I'll just keep writing the rebels until they inevitably let me down. All right, let us talk Florida, LSU.

I was just a Billy Napier's press conference. It was a surprisingly defiant Billy Napier. Not what I expected coming off the USF game. Struck me as a guy who thought everything that went wrong there is completely correctable that DJ Lagway is suffering because he hasn't really gotten to practice with his teammates as much that he will get better the more he gets to play with them. Here's my issue with that, Ari.

we've seen with Billy Napier in three plus years where he's been confident he's like this is the team I got this and then it has looked like he doesn't know what he's supposed to have when the game actually hits but the one game of two and they happened in consecutive weeks last year where he proved us wrong and himself right was against LSU So what are we to take from that? Like if they play the way that they played against USF, they're going to get annihilated by LSU. Annihilated.

But will they be that bad? I don't know because like the Lagway stuff's interesting because there's a ton of criticism about Lagway. Why did he throw to this guy instead of this guy? Why did you do this instead of this? Why did he check to a pass when they needed to run the clock? There also were several throws that DJ Lagway made that would have been touchdowns or key first downs that people just dropped. And what if they don't drop them this time?

Yeah. I texted you yesterday saying, I don't know if you think I'm sick in the head or aren't emotionally unavailable human, but the spread seems a little pie for me. Yeah. Here's Billy Napier on DJ Lagway. So you'll get a sense of the vibe I'm talking about here. Yeah. Practice DJ had looked very good. Week one, was on a mission last week.

It hasn't seemed to translate completed the games yet. Yeah, I think it translated. I thought he made a lot of steps forward in the game Saturday. I think he's still getting comfortable. You guys can see that much like he can and we can. But he did a lot of good things in the game. You know, I think he's still getting in the rhythm. This was the third week of practice.

You can see that, getting comfortable with some of these skill players. And then, yeah, I think he's really close, you know, to having a huge day. And so, you know, he takes that personal, and he's an elite competitor. And the number one motivator for him is being able to execute and perform and do his job for his teammates. You know, that's the thing I respect about the guys. When he doesn't get the result, he wants on a play, his immediate feeling there is about letting the guys down.

So highly motivated to continue to improve, but yeah, he definitely did a lot of things better, but there's more, there's ceiling left there for him to improve. And look, we've got to play better around him at times, too. A little more precision across the board in the throw game. And then, you know, I think as a staff, we can help them as well. So that is interesting because against LSU last year was where you and I started drinking the DJ Lai Kool-Aid, which is why we overhyped him this offseason. Is that DJ-Laiway coming back?

More specifically, R.E. Can he come back against this LSU defense, which while the same scheme is probably, considerably better from a personnel standpoint. I'm going to level with you, Andy. I was anticipating Superman this year, not press conferences about how he is afraid to let his teammates down and how he is struggling to get on the same page with his skill position players. So I'm going to wear that.

I'm not going to make his form. I still think that the ceiling is incredibly high and the things that made me fall in love with him are still there. I mean, the physical attributes are just off the charts. What we saw on Saturday was nowhere near what I anticipate. out of him this year. And I know that the discourse always falls on the quarterback when a team loses a game,

especially one in shocking fashion. I don't know that I would watch the Florida game back and be like, yeah, DJ Lagway's the problem here. But he didn't play exceptional. He didn't play well, I don't think. So, you know, from that standpoint, you better hope Billy Napier's right.

Billy Napier's hoping he's right. His job This is only chance at this point. Yeah. And I think part of the reason why we thought that Florida could compete for a national championship spot in the playoff was as a result of him being exceptionally good and he hasn't been. And I don't know if

that was just a three-month sleepwalking event from us of like not really thinking it through and maybe it'll end up with us looking really stupid but I still really do think that he is exceptionally good. But he has to be

exceptionally good in the games in order for Florida to achieve that and he just hasn't been. And I think that it's fair if you have been questioning that to continue to question that because against South Florida that's when it's supposed to look easy that's when it's supposed to even if South Florida is a group of five representative in the playoff that's that you lose that game 38 to 35 you don't lose it the way that they lost it they could not score and that's that's the fear that said this is a lot of points LSU's favored by nine and a half and I realize LSU's at home it's at

night Tiger Stadium this is as we pointed out DJ Lagway's first road start in the SEC. So I find that interesting because it feels like we've been talking about it forever. So what do you think happens, Ari? Is Billy Napier right? Is Florida better than what we saw? Because all they got to do is stay within double digits of this thing to cover. I think he is better than what we saw.

And I think that this spread is five points. He is in DJ or them as in Florida? Because I think there's two different. Sorry. No, I think that Billy Napier is. correct in that we didn't see what how good he can be okay um and i'm not agreeing with billy i'm agreeing with myself on this one and maybe agreeing with billy is the bad thing to do at this point this juncture in his tenure but i think the spread should be four and a half not not nine and a half

and i think it might have been closer to five six four and a half if florida would have found a way to survive on saturday but i think that the spread here is a bit of an overreaction to um what we saw on Saturday, and I think people are going to overreact with their wallets by laying 10 points, and we're going to get a game on Saturday night. That's what I think. Well, and LSU Center, Braylon Moore went down on play one last week against Louisiana Tech. I think that

is a big reason why their offense looked out of sorts. I think their offense will look better, you know, as long as the center who practices all week plays most of the game. Treadas Green, the tight end, got hurt too. So that's tough.

So I think LSU's offense is going to be bit hamstrung. My thinking on this, though, Ari, and I agree that it's a lot of points. If LSU's defense is truly better, Florida may be able to play a much better game than it played against USF and still lose by 10 points. Do you believe that Florida can make it hard for LSU to score, though, too? I do. I do. Caleb Banks should be coming back, the defensive tackle. He hasn't played yet this season. By the way, huge loss for them because he's one of the most important pieces on Florida's entire team, right? Right. But so he's playing, probably this week, we think.

Keep an eye on that Wednesday release of the injury report because Caleb Banks, it seems like he's going to play unclear about Dallas Wilson, the really good freshman receiver, whether he's going to play or not. So those are going to affect and probably going to affect the line when they come out. All of this said, I'm still going to take LSU to cover. Yeah.

Well, part of this too is last year, Florida bounced back in such a beautiful way that part of you still feels like that's the case. The other end of the spectrum here is that this is when the wheels fall off. Right. Like how much of the we need to win this one for Billy has left in the tank. And Florida is going to play really well. I'm telling you right now, Florida's going to play really well in at least one of these next four games. LSU, Miami, Texas, Texas, A&M, you'll play really well at least one of these.

I don't know if it's going to be this one or not. But if LSU's defense is that much better. Florida is still going to have a hard time scoring. If Florida on the line of scrimmage plays the way they played against USF, LSU is going to make this very difficult for them. So I will take LSU to cover. You will take Florida to cover.

And all right, we got to go lightning round on these next two before we get to the big one in South Bend. Vandy at South Carolina, they both played the same team the last two weeks. Both of them have played Virginia Tech. South Carolina kind of got into a fight and then finally put it away in the fourth quarter.

Vandy fell behind and then annihilated Virginia Tech in the second half. One was a neutral site. One was in Blacksburg. Do we draw anything from that? Or do we say, hey, these teams played last year. And South Carolina might be a bad style match for Vandy. Yeah. So I actually was talking on the phone this morning with my former editor at the athletic,

Mitch Light, who you know is a big Vanderbilt guy. And we were texting before the game, I believe, or he said he was going to text me before the game. I can't remember what actually occurred. A lot happens on Saturday about how he felt that Virginia Tech was going to be a very tough matchup for Vanderbilt athletically because Virginia Tech, as we saw in person the previous week, did a very good job of hanging in there with South Carolina from an athletic standpoint. And I think that the old Vanderbilt brain, which is, you know, he's been following them for 30 years, can't wrap their heads around Vanderbilt physically asserting itself

over a team that's as athletic as Virginia Tech is. Now, Virginia Tech has issues, there's no question, but they still are fast, big, and strong. And that's usually how you got to Vanderbilt. And why Vanderbilt has struggled in the SEC is because they were not athletically equipped to handle it. But if you go back and you watch Vanderbilt's game against Virginia Tech, especially in the second half when they unraveled it a little bit,

they kicked their ass, Andy. And I thought that that, you know, for all the jokes that we have about Diego Pavia, you know, saying national championship is the reason he's back, whatever, they're not going to win the national title this year. But I do think that they're a very good football team that can exist in a physical game. And I'm not sure that was the case for Vanderbilt five years ago. So, like, you know, South Carolina has not played exceptionally well through the first two weeks. They're two and oh.

And I know that they had an emotional opener with the, the Beamer Bowl situation. and then a short week this last week. And I do buy into the notion that you should be afraid that this is just a bad style styles make fight situation for Vanderbilt.

But I just wanted to caution the audience. Like, I'm going to lay the points here, but it's not going to be an easy game for them. I'm taking South Carolina, but I think it's going to be a tough game for them. I'm also taking South Carolina here. I do think it's a styles make fight situation more than anything else.

I think they're probably the wrong team Vandy wants to see right now. So I'll take South Carolina here. Duke at Tulane, Darien Mensa, returns to Tulane. Tulane has beaten Northwestern. This is yet another power conference opponent. They also have at Ole Miss next week.

They would like to keep pace with USF. Obviously, if all goes well for both teams, they would play in the American Championship game. But what do we think happens when Darien Mensa returns to New Orleans? Maybe Daryan Mensa and Duke won't turn it over two times in the red zone in this game. I'm mad at you, Duke. You made me look like an asshole last week.

And Illinois is a really good team, and I think Illinois was the better team. But that game and that score got completely out of hand because of self-inflicted wounds that Duke had. They had a dropped pass in the end zone that would have been a touchdown. There was a few penalties in the red zone, I think, on the same play that caused them to not score. They turned it over multiple times. Like, that wasn't a representation of what Duke is, I don't think. And I think that Duke is actually a nine-win-timed team in the ACC. Tulane's a team that I think is trendy in the group of five,

and you have the storyline of Darien Mincea returning, but I think Duke is more than three points better than Tulane. I'm going to take Duke. Tulane messed around a little bit with South Alabama. They took a lead and then had to hold on to win that game. I'm surprised Tulane's favorite in this game. even after what happened in the second half of Illinois Duke, I'm surprised Tulane's favor in this game.

That said, I will take Tulane to cover here. Yeah, I mean, I'm taking three points. You know, I feel pretty good about it. But if Duke doesn't cover, then I just had them wrong. And that's the big question is we're going to find out, like, what are they, I think, in this game? Let us go to South Bend now, Ari. This is a big one. Texas A&M at Notre Dame.

We've not seen Notre Dame play since they lost to Miami on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is 2-0. They just beat Utah State badly. Marcel Reed, their quarterback, went out with an injury in this game. About the same time, he was probably going to come out anyway because they had the game in hand. Mike Elko, the A&M coach has said Marcel Reed's going to be fine. He's going to play in this game. We saw C.J. Carr looked like a freshman a bit, but also...

show some promise in that first game against Miami. What do we think happens here? I think it's going to be a one-possession game. I think it's going to look a lot like last year. Andy, I am, I think I'm going to go back and start drinking Notre Dame Kool-Aid again. I don't know. They made me feel so good last year. Well, they need this one.

They need this one. I know we've said over and over again that if you go 10 and 2, you're going to make the playoff and you pointed this out when we were talking about this game in a video yesterday Miami went 10 and 2 last year and didn't make the playoff because people didn't feel like they had enough quality wins if now we'll see what the other teams on Notre Dame schedule do but I kind of think they got to win this one for it to be one of their 10 if they go 10 and 2 yeah and like listen we don't know what A&M is going to be or who they are but if A&M is your best win and A&M goes 8 and 4 you still really don't have a quality win

especially with it being at home. Now, I think we respect what it takes to beat A&M. I think we respected it a lot more when it happened in College Station because I think it's a much different proposition to beat them, depending on where the game is. But, you know, Notre Dame, I still think is a gritty, tough team that has a lot to learn from as a result of losing to Miami. I think, as we illustrated earlier in the video,

that Miami is maybe one of the three or four best teams in college football. I think that's a crazy thing to think at this moment in time. You know, and they lost by a possession at the end of the game. Is A&M as good as Miami? Is A&M a real team this year? I don't really know, but I think Notre Dame is probably going to win by seven. I think that's a pretty big leap because is A&M's defense better than Miami's defense? I don't know.

I don't know, but probably no, because of how good Miami's defensive level. line is. But isn't A&M's defensive line really good too? Yeah, but they don't have Ruben Bain. Who's on your high list? They got Cassius Howell. He's killing people. Is he on your Heismund list? Pulling green transfer, just wrecking people. Maybe they didn't play anybody yet. Ruben Bain's on my Heisman list because he dominated against Notre Dame. Yeah. Cassius Howell has his breakout game here. Like, yeah, if he wrecks this game, he deserves to be on your Heisman list. Yeah. So that's that's the thing. I don't know, I really don't know what to make of this.

I am curious because the last year's game was such a rock fight. I don't think this year's game will be that because A&M now knows what it has in Marcel Reed. Remember last year they were still playing with Connor Wegman and they couldn't throw the ball or run the ball. I think they can do both now. Mostly they can throw because they can run. I don't, you know, Marcel Reed is not going to be confused with, you know, Patrick Mahomes.

but when they get the ball going on the ground, they have receivers running open. And by the way, Casey Concepcion and Mario Craver look like they're going to be very valuable portal transfer transfer portal pickups. So I'm a little bit encouraged by Texas A&M's passing game. Now, I do think, based on what we saw off to CJ Carr against Miami,

that Notre Dame should have a more dynamic passing game this year. The question for me, Ari, is are they going to give the ball to Jeremiah Love? Like, are they going to try to establish the runner? Are they going to try to move Texas A&M's defensive line? Are they to try to impose their will on Texas A&M? Because I don't feel like they did that against Miami, and I think it hurt them.

Yeah. Yeah. I am just, I think, overly high on Notre Dame still. I don't know. Maybe I'm just going to look like a fool. I love Notre Dame. I had them number two in my, like, post-spring top 20. I love the offensive line.

I feel like they have everything they need. But the game against Miami did cause me some concern because the offensive line didn't look as good as I thought it was going to look. And even if Miami's D-Line is really, really good, Texas A&M's is going to be fairly comparable. Yeah. I mean, the idea that A&M could throw the ball a little bit

with those receivers, I think does scare you a little bit. um six and a half is a pretty big spread it's that and that's probably what where i'm going more with this is i was surprised i thought this was going to be a three and a half point spread six and a half is is a little shocking to me and and we've seen that it's not quite a bit this year where they've they've just been a little higher than we thought and you know the the tennessee georgia one was really high and people bet it down this one came out and and it hasn't really moved. Now, it could move during the week, but it hasn't moved much. So it's a reasonable expectation that it's probably going to be around six or six and a half when the game starts.

Yep. I feel comfortable laying it. We'll see what happens, but I mean, winning by a touchdown isn't out of the question, right? No. No, and that's the thing. You can have a tie game and one team just scores a touchdown with 30 seconds to go, and that's the margin. Happens all the time. Perfectly understandable, perfectly acceptable, not the weirdest thing in the world. So you're going to take Notre Dame to cover. I'm taking Texas A&M. I don't know if this is going to be a different Texas A&M or another 8 and 4, Texas A&M.

But they have the capability to beat the good teams on their schedule. They have the talent. Mike Elko has said, hey, we feel better about every position room on the roster. they can beat some of these teams. I am fascinated to watch this. I think they can go to South Bend and get a win. Yeah, man, if that happens, then Notre Dame might be cooked.

Now, I'm not taking the money line. I'm not that confident. I will take every one of those six and a half points. But I just feel like A&M's capable of doing this. A&M's capable of keeping it within a touchdown. So we'll see what happens. Ari, these games are amazing. Can't wait.

I can't wait. But we're going to talk about them the rest of the week, too. We reserve the right to maybe reexamine some of these picks later in the week. But no, the record is the record. What we said today is set in stone. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.