Andy & Ari On3 - The BEST bets ahead of the 2025 College Football Season

Episode Date: May 12, 2025

Happy Monday! On today's show, Collin Wilson from the Action Network joins Andy & Ari to give the fellas the BEST bets for the 2025 season, but first we need to cover the news over the weekend. In a report from Ross Dellenger, the 16-team College Football Playoff bracket is gaining momentum with the Big Ten and SEC. Andy & Ari breakdown what a 12-team field would look like and the implications of it. In other news, Jordon Hudson is back in the headlines, as she finished as the 2nd runner up in the Miss Maine USA Pageant over the weekend. Also, Pablo Torre reported that Jordon Hudson was banned from North Carolina facilities, which UNC later released a statement saying it was false. Collin Wilson joins to provide the best bets ahead of the season, and they include: Arkansas Under 5.5 wins, Oklahoma Over 6.5 wins,
Utah -1.5 v UCLA Week 1, Clemson to win ACC,
Southern Miss to win Sun Belt at 35/1 odds Wrapping up, theres some basketball news to close. (0:00-2:00) Introduction(2:01-17:06) 16-Team CFP Bracket Format(17:07-21:39) Jordon Hudson in Miss Maine(21:40-25:01) A ban at UNC?(25:02-35:59) Collin Wilson from the Action Network Joins(36:00-40:56) Arkansas Under 5.5 Wins(40:57-44:25) Utah vs UCLA, Week 1 Pick(44:26-48:44) Southern Miss, Sun Belt champs?(48:45-52:21) Oklahoma over 6.5 wins(52:22-54:54) Surprise teams in 2025?(54:55-1:00:50) Clemson as ACC Champs(1:00:51-1:03:53) Florida State's Outlook(1:03:54-1:10:43) Wrapping up with Collin(1:10:44-1:12:37) Arkansas discussion(1:12:38-1:13:44) College Basketball Rules Watch our show LIVE at 9:30 am et, M-F! https://www.youtube.com/@On3sportsHosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey 

Welcome to Andy and Ari on three. Happy Monday. Today we'll see. No guarantees. No sure bets in life, but Colin Wilson, the Action Network, is going to join us. Continue our conversation. We started on Friday, which was largely theoretical with Tyler Shoemaker. We're going to be very practical today, Ari, with Colin talking about some of his favorite plays going into the 2025 season. Yeah, and he, you know, when he thinks something, he thinks something. So, I mean, listening to him, I was just like writing stuff down and, you know, seeing what the

number was on my guy. And I mean, he's pretty convincing. So, you know, between like Tyler told us the gamblers covered here. Yeah, Tyler told us the books will stake out a claim on a way, you know, they'll stake out a line. They'll they'll say, look, you know, we believe in this line. Colin believes in his picks. I mean believes fervently in his picks. Yeah, and he puts his money up. So, but you know, as you and wins a lot of you, you know, get a sense of, you know, how much work goes into this too. You know, I mean, I think 90% of people out there are just casual, here's what I think is going to happen type betters.

And we had two people on that put a tremendous amount of time. The processes are different, but they're both incredibly interesting. And I thought we learned a lot from both of them. So I'm excited for you guys to watch Colin's interview. Agreed. Now we got to talk a little news first. Ari, I'm going to give you a little choose your own adventure. Do you want to talk about Jordan Hudson in the Miss Maine pageant? That's Bill Belichick's girlfriend. Uh or do we wanna talk about the

potential of a 16 team college football playoff? Which which one you got? Why don't we just talk about the 16 team playoff and not piss off half the audience and then we'll get to Jordan Hudson. I think we will piss off half the audience here. You know what? We're not gonna talk about this for too long because we're gonna have I think we will piss off half the audience here. You know what? We're not going to talk about this for too long because we're going to have, I think, multiple longer conversations about this as the college football playoff. Well, I thought you were talking about Jordan Hudson.

That too. Well, they'll both piss everybody off. So I think we can't really go wrong there. But as the commissioners get together in person, further down the road, they really don't have long before they've got to make a decision on the playoff in 2026 and beyond. We're not talking about this season. So let me be clear about that. This season is a 12 team playoff. We're still not entirely sure what they're going to do with their seating. If it's going to be the same as last year or different, we're waiting on that. But beyond that, it's all open.

They can do whatever they want with it. So Ross Delgier from Yahoo reporting on Friday that the commissioners of the power leagues, so the ACC, big 10, big 12 and SEC, they all met in person on Thursday and now it seems that the big 10 in the SEC are favoring a 16 team playoff instead of a 14 team playoff and potentially favoring the play in games versus conference championship games. So it sounds like they've done some talking and they've come around on some things because Ari when it looked like it was going to be a 14

team playoff, the reason behind that would be the SEC and the Big 10 want their championship games to mean something. They want their their champions to get a buy. They want there to be stakes for the championship game. It sounds like they've been talked out of that because I think what we saw last year is even if there are some stakes, then it still doesn't matter. The championship games are diminished, and they'll keep getting diminished. So, you go to 16, now you've got automatic bids, which is something that we're still arguing about,

but seems like what the SEC and the Big Ten want. So, it'd be four automatic bids for the Big Ten, four for the SEC, two for the Big 12, two for the ACC, highest rank group of six champs, sorry, group of five chair group of six champs. Sorry, packed 12 group of six champ and then three at larges instead of one is how it would go. Well, it does seem like we're going to be getting to 16 and maybe 24, you know, at some point, you know, like 1416 is the same same rounds as 12. Like you don't have to add around. I think you get a little more complicated

when you have to add around. But, so like the thing that is interesting is it's just a more, it's a completely different model. And you know, we had Joel clad on six months ago and he had a similar model to what this is and I'm assuming that part of this is because he's a man who's in the know and it might have had a bug up he works for Fox you know essentially runs the Big Ten Tony Petitti the former TV executive who is the

commissioner of the Big Ten and the the Fox execs probably pretty tight so, that's what Joel said when he came on the show. That seems to be coming to fruition. The other thing Joel said, which was something that we'd not heard about until Joel started talking about it that week, and then we started hearing about it a lot more because it is clearly Tony Petiti's baby, but it sounds like maybe the SEC folks are coming around on it.

And that is the idea of these high stakes playing games on what used to be championship Saturday. So in the Big 10 in the SEC and remember Joel said this on the show in January, winner of so three versus six plays, four versus five plays one and two are already in. So one and two from the Big Ten the SEC automatically in they get to rest. The number three team in the regular season by conference record plays the number 16 number 14 plays the

number five team and the winners of those games advance into the playoff. Thus rendering the championship game useless which it already kind of is um right but I mean I think it's not well it's not useless. The teams you need to win to get in, right? But you know, I it would be crazy. The championship game would be the third most interesting game in your conference that day, you know, right?

And in but in most years with this big of a playoff. The Big 10 in the SEC number one and number two in both those leaves is already in the playoff and it doesn't matter if they win or lose. They're in the play would be a glorified exhibition game for trophy that's becoming less and less important. What I think is interesting about

this is the same thing that I thought was interesting about this in January, Andy, which is. If you diminish. You create drama at the end, but then you're diminishing. In my opinion, the bill or the necessity to have a spectacular year because you're basically putting the

third best team in a conference on the same playing field as a 16 best conference and then it muddies the waters of like the difference between the SEC and the SEC. The six best team probably weren't that different last year. Yeah, I mean the I don't want to use last year's SEC rankings

to guide any opinion that was an. I don't think it'll be that different. Most years are he is what I'm saying. Is going to be the normal finish to that, because it was the bizarre like you think it's going to be one I think 3456, 3456 are going to be are going to be. Because what we have here, we got to fix this graphic. By the way, it's wrong.

All this was third. So all this would have been playing. I don't know that Missouri would have been the team they would have been playing. Cause remember A and M and South Carolina both beat Missouri. So they wouldn't have played Missouri. It would have been Ole Miss against, I guess who won the South Carolina one, the South Carolina Texas A and M game. against, I guess, who won the South Carolina one, the South Carolina Texas A&M game.

So probably Ole Miss South Carolina and then Tennessee, Alabama would have been the games. I mean, I guess if you go forward on the notion that most years the third place team and the sixth place team are gonna have the same record in their conference, then I'll guess that, but I don't think that's the way it usually goes. And I guess maybe now that the conferences are 20 teams, then maybe you're, you're probably

right in the sense that six and third are similar and maybe they are. But then if like third and six play each other than the big time regular season game that would probably go a long way in determining who's third and six becomes useless too. You know, like, I don't know, maybe like I become useless because it's terms who's third and six. It's terms who plays in those games. That's what I'm saying. If you're third or six, you play on the same field, but the games in November decide that. So the other piece of this is whether you like automatic bids or not. And I know a lot of people don't, the SEC is gonna go to nine conference games if there are automatic bids like this,

because they're not gonna be worried about having a harder non-conference schedule. If you don't like what Matt Rule said, the Nebraska coach, if you don't like what he said about non-conference games, then the automatic bids are the thing that keeps the non-conference games better. Keeps people scheduling garbage. I think it's what he said about non-conference games.

I think it's the softest thing I've ever heard in my entire life, if I'm being honest with you. I can't stand it. It was so annoying. And he's not the only one. He's been, you know, echoed a lot recently, but that seems to be, I mean, I went crazy last year on that notion, I wrote a few columns about it. I can't stand it. But, you know, I think that we'll probably get- Let's talk about what the ACC and the Big 12 would do in this situation because it changes their situation too. You would go one versus four and two versus three.

And the winners get in. Yeah. Which I think would be really interesting. You know, I think it would be interesting, but. One seed versus four seed means that the four seed how different were the top four seeds in the big twelve last year Ari I don't know the games in November that decided not at all they were the same. I know but Andy like they played the games to determine who played in the conference

championship game yeah and it was a math formula that figured out instead of just letting all the seven or two teams play, which is what they would do in this situation. Just like you keep going down a rung of competition and eventually you're going to be left with nothing. It's like you it just gets worse and worse. No, you're gonna be left with games. Like, I don't know. It's just like I want our games between good teams watering it

down. I can't believe you don't see it. It just keeps getting watered down and watered down. I'm excited at the end of the year. It just keeps getting water games between good teams. Excited at the end of the year. It'll be fun like I watch the games. No, the whole year will be fun because it's more games against with good teams playing good teams. You and I are never going to agree

on the notion right? I'm going to be right and you're going to be wrong. Remember how long you were about the playoff of if you are somebody who loved the intensity of the regular season, you cannot like this and also deny that it's watering down the regular season product. Like you can't, it can't be both things.

It's gonna keep the regular season from getting watered down by people scheduling crappier non-conference games. Yeah, but I think that that's more of a threat than an actual reality. I mean, every, like we discussed before all this, we discussed. Yeah, I think some people, Matt Ruhl will threaten it. I mean, everybody like we discussed before all this. We just got. Well, yeah, I think some people, Matt rule will threaten it. I don't think like Clemson's never seem to ever want to back down off those good games.

Oklahoma always seems to want to schedule them. Has anybody actually scheduled crap opponents in the future as a result of this? Yeah. Like on purpose, who? Well, because of this, I'm saying these games are scheduled 10 years in advance, sorry. I know, but people are saying that we're... I mean, Wake Forest canceled on Ole Miss,

but that was more of a, please don't beat our ass again. In the future, 10 years from now, we're going to play different games because of the results of this year's playoff, I think is an empty threat. Like, I don't think that all these big time teams don't wanna play big time teams.

We'll see, but Here's the thing. Do you want the SEC to play a ninth conference game? Cause it seems like a lot of people do. Sure. That'd be great. Okay. They're going to play one now if this all goes through. Awesome. They'll play an extra game

that determines whether you're third or sixth. That'd be great. I think that like it's- Oh, you can't have it both ways, man. What, what are my both ways? We always argue about this. What are my both ways? Well, you want to, you want to go back to the boring,

like we're one game a week actually matters or, and we get into November, there's only five teams that actually matter. Like I would rather have 20 teams that matter in November. I think that's more fun. Yeah. I think that the end of the year will be fun. I'm not saying that it's not. I just hope, I just worry that like.

And what is the goal? What is the goal? To have a great fun season. Entertainment, that's right. Have a great fun season from start to finish. So, but well, you are right. You are absolutely right. And I will, I will concede this point.

The gut punch, your whole life is over. Your season is dead game that happened in October before is gone. There's never going to be another one of those. Yeah, I just I feel like I guess if the answer is that third and six are no different every year, then let them play. Right. And maybe I'm just like, I don't think they're gonna be that different. Most years in those leagues, because it and and in this particular case, which I don't know how long this is gonna last, honestly, or how long it'll matter. But if you had a team, cough cough, Indiana cough cough, that people think was the beneficiary of an easy conference schedule.

Well, that team would have to beat somebody really good to get in. Yeah. I mean, I guess like the only thing that makes this okay to me is that the conferences are so big that they these teams don't all play each other. So you have to create something at the end of the year to create competition and games that they don't play. Like this would be really stupid if the conferences were still 12 or 14 because then you would be it wouldn't. It would not make sense if I guess like from a necessity standpoint, if you play these games, the one thing I can see it on is you might get matchups from teams that should have played in the regular season that didn't because the conferences were too big. should have played in the regular season that didn't because the conferences were too big. Yeah.

Unfortunately, what I said about the SEC would have been to rematches, which yeah, but like I think Alabama would have liked another crack at Tennessee and Ole Miss would have liked or South Carolina would have liked another crack at Ole Miss. But yeah, I get you. I would rather be just want you to acknowledge that Jackson Dart crying on the sideline when they lost to Florida, it doesn't happen in this new system. Like you're, you're just taking it down another rung. and from the play that game still would have had a lot of meaning. To who. To

Florida people because it does regardless of what happened with the losers that aren't in the in the mix here we're talking about the person that lost something here we're not talking about the spirit of the upset we don't care about that I would have liked I would have liked to see Ole Miss get another crack that was that so I think it would have been fun if Ole Miss went on a run they made somebody still would have been crying on that Saturday. Hurry who? On that championship Saturday, two somebodies would be crying.

I just feel like I like the the. I'd like that Saturday. That was a fun Saturday to me. It was a fun Saturday. It was still be like Florida upsetting Ole Miss would still be fun. Jackson Dart wouldn't have cried that day. But he might have cried later. Maybe, maybe we might not have because he might have led his team to a win and into the playoff. Like that is just that gets me Andy and

we could do this whole show if we don't stop soon is that you don't have to agree with my thought process. The thing that bothers me is that you can't pretend like it's what I'm saying isn't true. Like you don't have to agree with me, but you're- It is true, I don't care. And I'm done. Then that's- I want better, I want more games that matter

over fewer games that matter more, if that makes sense. I feel like I need to get like Tyler Shoemaker back on the show, Andy, to actually like do the math for me because yeah I you wouldn't like it I would win because there are more meaningful games this way and less meaningful games the other way but you do but the meaning of the meaningful games is much greater the other way because the Florida Ole Miss game last year was an additional meaningful game, but if you expand it, then you don't get to keep that as a meaningful game. That's a worthless

game. It's meaningful because it moves Ole Miss up or down in whether you're going to play in a play-in game or who you're going to play in a play-in game. No Ole Miss would have played in a play-in game regardless of winning or losing that game is what I'm saying. But it matters who they play. But if you're saying they get the easier one of the harder one or good games, you have to subtract the worthless one that doesn't matter from the equation. And I don't know how to do that. Because that was the illusion of like this year we got more you are trying to pretend it doesn't mean

something it does. I'm telling you what it means. It doesn't mean as much as the 2013 Iron Bowl, not even close. But it does mean something in terms of how the postseason gets selected. I just want people to be crying in October still. Sometimes OK, somebody who loses their fourth game is going to cry in October, OK?

Don't worry, somebody's gonna cry. I don't know if there were any tears shed in this main pageant. Probably by the winner. Usually the winner of a pageant cries. But the person you're interested in didn't win. Jordan Hudson, Bill Belichick's girlfriend, PR agent, you name it. They have a second runner up. And a professional relationship, Andy. I don't know if you name it. They have a second runner up and a professional relationship, Andy. I don't know if you know that they do. They do. Second runner up in the

Miss May pageant this weekend. So I don't think she wants to congratulations for that. She was first runner up last year. So this is this is one spot lower and you know, as Ricky Bobby would say. And I think Jordan would probably agree if he ain't first or last. I didn't do a lot of reading. I didn't look real thrilled.

Just like the playoff to get into Miss America. Like if you won this, do you go to Miss America or like? I believe you're going to miss USA from this. OK, so this was like these were playoff games. Did she lose the playoff game or does she go because she didn't win? I think if if the winner and the first runner-up cannot fulfill their duties.

Then she's in. But she lost so she's not going right now. Unless the winner and the first runner-up can't fulfill their duties. I don't really know what their other duties are, but is there a duty to fill them show up? Is that what their duty is at the next round? They have to cut some ribbons at some libraries or something like, I don't know. Oh, not really being the patent world. I don't know what the odds of two people not being able to fulfill their duties are.

Especially low, I would imagine. You're probably the duty schedule seems fairly light. So, by the way, I'm headed to ACC spring meetings on Monday in Amelia Island, Florida. The coaches go to that. I don't they don't always all go. So I have no idea if Bill Belich is going to be there. I have no idea if Jordan Hunts is going to be there. But man, would it be fun if she is your camera. And if you see her yell, Hey, Jordan, hey, Jordan, hey, Jordan, and just like do the paparazzi thing or until she looks at you. And I'd be like, can I just say, we're not talking about this? Do you like salami or bologna? Hey, Jordan, Hey, Jordan, you

always ask them stupid question just to get them. Yeah, I, I'm never doing that. Never doing that. I, I actually saw them in action when we went to Italy, Clive Owen and Julia Roberts were filming a movie in Rome and the act like the real like straight up Italian paparazzi were chasing them around. They were very annoying. Oh, excuse me. Excuse me. Yeah, I know. No, no part of that. I will probably try to leave them alone. I don't really have like, I feel like I have questions for her, but not. Not any sort of like walk up and gotcha questions, you know, on the Ohio State beat. I don't know if this happens on other beats, but I was once paparazzi.

Do other beats do this where the players check in for fall camp at whatever hotel they're doing it at and then the entire beat stands outside and films the players is that 100% okay yeah so I remember like filming schools and the big big 10 schools yeah okay yeah like here the players reporting for camp and the Ohio State players would like wear funny shirts and stuff or because they knew we were gonna be there and you would like have to take pictures and film video and post it so that men. It was like an NBA tunnel walk, except for incoming freshmen. Yes, except like it was it was happening before the NBA tunnel walk became a thing. It was more of a way for men at home to judge the growth of the male bodies that

were coming off. That's right. That's right. It was like the off the bus test to see who had a good summer in the weight room. And people would go, Oh my God, that guy's huge. Oh my God, is he injured? Is he wearing a walking boot? Zach Boren really got big this year. Yeah. And people and people would just be like, Hey, hey, hey. And they were like, take it. I had to be a part of that for almost a decade of my life. And it was my least did you ever say scoozie before you

took the picture? I actually thank God, was kind of a newspaper dude. Cleveland.com was very video friendly. And we did shoot videos, but I never really had to like... There was a photographer in Columbus named Jim Davidson who's passed away since, but he was a very good photographer and somebody who sold his prints, who made a lot of hay taking pictures of men

walking off the bus In their pre camp, you know get ups People are obsessed with that. They were obsessed with it Jordan. We are talking about this. We're not asking any more questions I don't know the whole thing on Friday with the public or he finds out the podcast Where they reported that she was banned from the facility. North Carolina comes out with a statement that says she's welcome with the facility. Pablo's like, yeah, but we were right, but you just changed your mind. You just changed your mind because it was going to look stupid.

Can I throw something out there, Ari? I'm not going to put, I'm not making any judgments on this because I do think some of this is spin by North Carolina, but wouldn't banning a head coach's significant other from the facility be a problem? No matter what, and no matter where I treated this on Thursday or Friday, whenever this came out. It's not a good solution to anything other from the building would be the most dysfunctional thing I've ever heard, because, Andy, you know, the first lady of the team actually usually has a role.

Like, I mean, all the wives of the coaches that I covered had a role, kind of like the president of the United States' wife has a role, right? Like, you know, I think Ryan Day's wife does mental health stuff. Give me some other examples. I mean, like there's, they are around the team. Like, and also, you know, you want to think about, oh, in every program,

they are, like, Mac Brown's wife was like the epitome of that, right? Like, wasn't she like a beloved? I mean, what about miss Terry? Like, she does she not have a role? Then she's like, oh, he knows for the for the team and stuff like, Miss Terry was the most beloved person in the Alabama organization. If you are a significant other of a coach who is banned not just doesn't come around a lot is like physically not allowed to come into the building that would mean that something toxic had to have happened like is this is this toxic enough

or would there have had to be something that happened? I don't I don't that's my thing. Like whether the decision was ever made or not or even brought up, it's not a great idea. Even if you're mad, even if you don't want her influencing, like it's going to end badly if you even think about something like that. If you're in the part the the relationship where somebody's thinking about that it's a problem so she's welcome at the facility we'll leave it at that and i'm sure they're praying that this is the last time we talk about i know we have to run bill belichick non-football for the next three months What I don't find interesting is whether or not she's allowed to go into the building now. What I find interesting is that there was even a five minute period where she was banned. But I don't wait and we don't know if she

was or not. But that's what's interesting. It's not his reporting. Yeah. Yeah. So so Pablo stands by his story. North Carolina standing by theirs, we're probably never gonna find out more than that, but it would have been a bad idea. Just throwing that out there. Would have ended terribly. Still might, but would have definitely ended terribly at that point. So we'll see. And again, if I see anybody at ACC Spring Meetings,

I'll let you guys know. We'll talk about it on Tuesday's show. But Art, we have to talk about some very intriguing picks that Colin Wilson has brought to us. And he explains them in vivid detail. Here's Colin Wilson. We are honored to be joined by Colin Wilson of the Action Network. And we talked theory with Tyler Shoemaker.

On Friday now, we're talking practical. Colin has has sent us some of his his favorite picks already at this early date. What's up, Con? I'm doing great, I'm doing great. My head is in golf and college baseball, but you know, there's never, once the portal ends, that second version of the portal ends,

you can do all your numbers again, and you can finally see where everybody landed, and it's time to hit win totals. It's time to hit conference futures, and they're starting to leak out, and some of them are not good, and they need to be taken advantage of. So I'm excited about this. The first time I talked about college football 2025 all year.

There's one in the group that you texted Ari that I cannot wait to talk to you about because when I saw it I was like that is there's no way that's a real real life first before we get to those. I want to tell the people my uh, my f and getting to no call an title game two years ago. next to each other in the had a really interesting

is a way to like build up right? Like what did you was it like to sit through ticket? So before the na year before the National Championship the year before, the Westgate opened up Washington 100 to 1 to win the national title. And I kind of sat back and looked at that number and I said, Washington is going there, the best wide receiver core in the nation. Plus Braylon Trice was like impossible to block. So it was a ticket that I put down at the Westgate for 100-1 on Washington to win the national title. I wasn't comfortable with betting a Pac-12 team. You guys remember how much we hated the Pac-12 and didn't bet any futures on them? But this team was loaded so much, and they had the easiest schedule in the nation. So I put down 500 for

50K. 12 months later, I'm sitting next to Ari in the press box. And he's like, Oh, my God, what are you doing with this ticket? And I said, Ari, I've been working on Michigan futures for like 3 weeks now during the playoff. I've been trying to get as much down as I possibly can. And the goal was alwayswa on the side of michigan to that would have been paye So let's just say I did w and that $500 bet one yea paid off. So that's why i is January, February, Mar

football is now every day have to pay attention to I was in awe of you the w watch the game. I was jus face. And I, it's in all of you the whole time. I didn't even watch the game. I was just looking at his perfect face. Like I'm like, you're a genius. I love you. Like that was the way. And you mentioned that it is an everyday thing.

So like, how much do you follow the transfer portal? How much are you paying attention in January, February and, or in April, like the last week where some stuff's been flying around in terms of players? Yeah. Well, there's really only two people out there that do returning experience and, and, or in April, like the last week where some stuff's been flying around in terms of players. Yeah, well, there's really only two people out there that do returning experience in the months of January, February, and April. And I, I do all of the transfer portal, I download, you know, everything from 24-7 sports from PFF, and I combine all the analytics. And I say, Okay, well, now App State doesn't have a quarterback because he went to UCLA and now he's at Tennessee. So they get marked down really far. But I don't start betting win totals anymore or any college football at

all until the second transfer portal is over. Because look at some of these players and how many times they hop in and out of the portal. Why would you want to invest money 8, 9 months in advance when there could be players that are on the move or get better NIL deals. Like it's just such a fluid situation that until the portal comes to an end, until rosters are locked, you're really just kind of hanging out there. So I do pay attention first three or four months of the year. I keep track of all my numbers. I update win totals and conference projections, but I'm not taking any action until that second portal is over. Colin, when you like do the power ratings, I'm sure that there's a lot of it. Maybe the majority of it is math, returning production,

average recruiting ranking, all the things that are just like the baseline of it. But how complicated does it get when you have to, you know, insert your own knowledge of, you know, injury or coaching style or schedule strength and all these things. How like, how difficult is it to create power ratings to go off of when you're playing with Bets,

especially in May? Yeah, there's a formula in the off season of how to treat your power ratings. And it's completely different than during the season. During the season, the number is the number, and you have to kind of gravitate towards what the odds are. But during the off season, people are like, what's the secret sauce?

How do you build win totals and power ratings? And I'm like, well, if I told you, do you build win totals and power ratings? And I'm like, Well, if I told you, you wouldn't want to know because it's too much work. But first off, with your power rating in the offseason, it's affected by a bunch of things. Experience. We just talked about if you lose a quarterback like a Joey Aguilar at App State, you have nothing. Second-order win total. That's a Pythagorean theorem of what your actual win total was. Remember how hot Kansas was? Well, they finished with 5 wins, and they should have been a 6½-win team. Now, Arkansas State finished with 8 wins, but 2nd Order win total, they were the luckiest in the nation, and they should have been 3.9. Turnover margin, that gets factored in. Changes to the coaching staff get factored

in. Is there another Chip Kelly out there? Like, we could not value how important Chip Kelly was to that Ohio State team last year. You look at Ryan, Ryan Grubb joining Kalen DeBoer. You look at Jeff Grimes at Wisconsin, which I think is a perfect match. You look at Mike Bahakian at UMass. That makes me a little nervous. And Slade Nagel rejoining Willie Fritz. Those are the kinds of things where you give a bump in the power rating in the offseason. Then you build your 2025 schedule. Each team's going to have a projected point spread, which correlates to a win percentage. You add up those 12 win percentages and you have your win total, but it is a lot of work to manage power ratings offseason and during the season.

I'm out of breath. How often, how often do you have a situation where the books come out with the win totals and there is one that is significantly different than than what your power rating says it's going to be? There's probably five to 10 per year where I have to drive to is significantly different than what your power rating says it's going to be. There's probably five to 10 per year where I have to drive to Kansas because I live in a state that doesn't have a couple of books. And I have to get down as much as I possibly can because it's that wrong.

And I'd like to think that I'm kind of tapped in to know, like, where these players are, what these coaches are doing, some of the stuff that maybe isn't out there in the public to go hit those kinds of things. And I was way early on SMU. Like last year I was banging the drum on SMU for everything. Win totals, conference futures, anything I could get absolutely paid off. So a lot of them pay off and they're pretty easy bets. But things can happen. Injuries can happen, fumble luck can happen,

lots of things can happen. But generally the can happen. You know, fumble luck can happen. Lots of things can happen. But generally, the books are wrong this early in the season. How much are you doing like through just apps and how much is walking into a physical casino for you? Oh my gosh. The only physical casinos I walk into bed in are in Las Vegas. You know, I live in this and it's it's changed. It changes everywhere like the state of Oklahoma.

I'm in the Midwest, guys. So the Oklahoma you can't bet at all. Arkansas has two books that are local to Arkansas. Missouri just passed a law to have it, but Kansas has everything, every book you can imagine. So if there's a number out there that's loose, and I know it's bad, I will make a one-and-a-half-hour drive from Northwest Arkansas, from the campus of Fayetteville, up to Kansas and sit in a graveyard and start making bets. So sitting in the house, if I'm in Vegas and I'm in a book and I want to have some fun, sure. But this brick and mortar stuff just doesn't work for me anymore. I'm looking at the drive here.

What part of Kansas do you usually go? I sit from Fayetteville, you go straight up to Joplin and you take a little shot over to Pitt State and get your bets in. Oh, I see. Go Gorillas. Yeah, go Gorillas. Pitt State. Okay. I'm going to meet you there, pal, because you got Go Gorillas. Yeah, go Gorillas. Pitt State. Okay, I'm gonna meet you there, pal,

because you got the, I'm like, look at this. I mean, like, I'm over here with the map. If you have, if you've got sharp plays and you're going to hit loose numbers, I will drive my car. I'm a person who left his wife and child three days before getting married to go put bets in at the Arizona border.

Like, like I, like I'm with you. I love how you brag about that. Listen, the borders, the borders are a big deal. Like we have people at the at the Action Network office in New York that take the, they take the train, they were taking the train to Jersey to make bets. But the big one is last year, I was in the press box at the College World Series in Omaha. Everybody leaves Omaha, drives five minutes across the river

and goes and bets in Iowa and then comes back to their hotel. It's the most insane thing ever. So these borders are crazy. Yeah. And there's like, sometimes I've seen like in situations like that, I'm sure there's like a million cars just off the side of the highway.

Yes. It looks like the cell phone lot for an airport. Yeah. Cell phone lot. Well, and I made that drive because when you land at the Omaha airport, you actually go into Iowa briefly and back into Nebraska. Carter, I wonder how many people just stop when they hit the Iowa part, place a couple bets and then keep. Well,

a pro tip for everybody, you don't want to be in Carter Lake Iowa, which is connected to Omaha, because that is where a juvenile detention center is. and it can be troubled while you're trying to make your bets. So I'm looking at the route here from Dallas, Fort Worth to Pittsburgh State. Uh, and you have to drive, uh, it adds an extra 20 minutes through Fayetteville. So I'll swoop you. I'll cover the gas. We can talk about things and then we'll I'm like, I'm not joking. We'll stop and eat catfish. We'll get you to catfish. You'll love it. Uh best best hush puppies in the

world at Catfish Hole. Yep. Love it. Could you imagine having a sharp sharp play given to you while eating catfish and like knowing you're about to go smash numbers like that. Like to me, it's um I was a sophomore at Arkansas and I had uh plus 41 and a half when Danny came to town and beat us by like 50. So, this has been going on since I was a sophomore at Arkansas and I had plus 41 and a half when Danny Whirlpool came to town and beat us by like 50. So this has been going on since I was like 19 years old. So this is just going to the catfish hole and talking about I could have told you that week because I was practicing as one of the

Arkansas offensive lineman that week and and no one's gonna go well for you guys. There's a study out there that say, that says that most men, like the vast majority of men would be more fulfilled in their lives without their wives and kids, if they lived in a like situation where you just like had co-dependency on like your best friends and like male to male, like heterosexual non-romantic relationships

that were just like also, like where you live. What is happening to this show? I mean, I don't know where this, I love my wife and kid, but I feel like I would just, if I lived in an apartment with you and we had our own rooms and bathrooms, but we could co-mingle in the middle to talk about bedding

and just smash action all day. Like, I don't know that I wouldn't be a very happy adult. Things have changed because my son is graduating high school and about to go into architecture at Arkansas and he has zero interest in dating. It's more of games, school, sports. Oh yeah, there's girls. I mean, things have changed with the youth.

Yeah, and it means he's smarter because gambling is more, like I'm fine gambling more than I'm in my life. Let's stick in Fayetteville because one of the. One of the plays you sent us is Arkansas under 5 1 1 half wins, which look Sam Pittman is perpetually on the hot seat. Interestingly enough, because I know the Arkansas fans and I'm sure Colin.

This is a pretty frequent topic of discussion in that cutthroat Arkansas. Sports radio market. Yeah, I'm radio market. I think he has to go four and eight for the buyout to drop to 50% instead of 75. But you only got to go five and seven for this to cash. That schedule's brutal. Yes. Yeah. Look, I think the good feelings with Sam Pittman are over for the fan base. It's not for me. I, since you know, since we see Sam, the beginning of the season and you talk with him off camera

and off microphone, he's like the greatest guy in the world. But you know, he had medical issues last year, he was doing practice from a cart. He's pretty hands off with the team and he allows his coordinators to do their job. The transfer portal, I mean, there was some stuff with Miles Slusher a couple years ago that really internally was bad. But let's talk about this team like numbers-wise. Project 4.7 on them, a little bit over 56% experience. The wide receiver, I think what people don't know about this team is that the wide receiver unit came to Bobby Petrino and Sam Pitman after the season and said, Taylor Green's got to go or we're out of here. And that might be breaking news to everybody, but this is exactly what happened. Isaiah Sotani went to OU,

Lucas, the tight end left. He was never getting any balls. He left and went to Ole Miss. Andrew Armstrong declared for the draft and Isaac Tesla got picked up by the NFL spring practice. There's a ton of questions here. They've identified some slot receivers. They have nobody at white out whatsoever. And then Pittman just came out two weeks ago and he was talking about the desperate need for safeties and corners to shore up the secondary. That's a really bad statement to be making like the last week of April. I got a double digit underdogs to Notre Dame, Tennessee, LSU in Texas. I have a favorite in only four games against Alabama A&M, Arkansas State, Memphis and

Mississippi State. And that's it. Everything else is a coin toss. To me, this feels like the exit year for Sam. Hopefully, it's peaceful. Maybe Travis Williams gets elevated. I know he's got some head coaching circles paying attention to him. So we'll see what happens this year. But all in all, Taylor Green has not been able to adopt the RPO and make the correct decisions and his accuracy, let some wide receivers hanging out to dry. That's all got to get cleared up. And now he has a new stable of wide receivers. So it's just not looking good for my team. That's all that was a lot to unpack there.

Holy crap. We're going to have to go back into draft games. And also it adds another layer of intrigue to Madden Iamaljava leaving. Yeah, because like I talked to somebody there the other day who told me, oh, they really liked him. They thought he was having a great spring and thought there might be a chance if something went wrong with Taylor if Taylor got injured,

he might be the guy even this season. Yeah, and there are echoes around the locker room of that too. And Malachi Singleton leaving and going to Purdue, we're not really sure who's going to back up Taylor now, but Madden was going to be the guy. But the more I hear about the family's father and his control over the Sons, that's probably the reason why he left, not so much Arkansas. was not in the group you sent us, but I want to ask you about this, because Producer River and I were marveling at this before you came on. The Tennessee win total hasn't changed since Nico left. It's still sitting there at 8½. Yeah, it shouldn't. I mean, I have things to say about Nico and one of my plays coming up here. But listen, there's, there

are series, Nico can't run that offense. Hindenhooker was perfect for that offense. You have to go find somebody that can absolutely throw bullets to the slot, and they can hit somebody over the top because you need burners at the, at the Hinden Hooker was perfect for that offense. You have to go find somebody that can absolutely throw bullets to the slot and then can hit somebody over the top because you need burners at the white out, the stretch offense that's being run there by Hypal. You have to have somebody that can throw it on a frozen rope and you have to be a little bit nimble. That was a big problem for Nico.

Colin, I wanted to ask you something that was interesting that popped into my head that has nothing to do with your plays either, but you mentioned in your Arkansas breakdown that you saw or you see a, uh, issue at the receiver position. Yeah. I'm wondering from a ratings perspective, which positions outside of the obvious, we know quarterback's important, which positions if you see or deem are weak, have the biggest impact on ratings in your mind and which ones do you think are more

overcomeable? Lockdown corners and defensive tackles. I mean, look at the portal, everybody is dying for a defensive tackle that can stick to offensive linemen, create some pressure, get into the backfield. It's all about havoc, guys. I mean, havoc is the best thing in the world for a defense. And then a lockdown corner, If you have somebody that can create a contested catch every time or lockdown, say, a Jeremiah Smith, which I don't think is possible. But if you have somebody good enough to at least stop him, then you have a chance in a game. But those are the most sought after players inside the portal outside of quarterback. So you mentioned the Niko plays into another one of your plays. Let's talk about that one

because it's two transfer quarterbacks going at each other. It's a program that had a down year that does not typically have down years that is potentially a bounce back. So you got Utah minus one and a half against UCLA week one which is a number you can get right now. Yep, yeah, I project this number at Utah minus four. And if you're a fan of SP+,

that's going to be closer to a TD. So I don't think this number is correct at all. And I think it's going to take steam on the Utah side. Two different stories here on these teams. I mean, Utah, they got some demons to extract in Pasadena, right? They lost to Ohio State. They lost to Penn State in the Rose Bowl.

They want to go to this building and probably get a win. UCLA should be an empty place. Not, not many people show up for UCLA games. But the big thing about Utah is New Mexico transfer Devin Dampier. He is absolutely electric. I mean, listen, he's the 19 rushing touchdowns. He created 54 missed tackles. Do you does anybody understand what 54 missed tackles is by a quarterback? That's like, that's like 20 or 30 short of Ash and

Gentie, right? I mean, it's the most insane number, 54 Mis-Tackles, 900 yards off designed rushing attempts, not scrambles, 900 yards off design. His passing probably gets some criticism for 12 TDs and 12 INTs. But if you go deep, if you look under the hood there, he has 20 big-time throws to 10 turnover-worthy plays, which tells me it's the New Mexico receivers that kind of jacked up his TDs at his interceptions. Offensive Coordinator Jason Beck leaves New Mexico, comes in to play the same role at Utah. These are all positive things for Utah and Whittingham. You look at the other side, Eric Bienneme is out at Offensive Coordinator for UCLA. Tino Sincere, you know, respectable job he's done. He's going to come in and call plays for Nico Ayamalava. The problem

with that is, and I mentioned this, I alluded this earlier, Nico had a 25% pressure-to-sac ratio last year for Tennessee. That is God-awful. It was absolutely the worst in the SEC, and it was, I think, fourth in the entire nation of anybody that had enough quality passing attempts. Where was your door? Off the top of my head, I don't know. Off the top of my head, I don't know. But you're going to give Nico to a 4-2-5 Morgan Scali defense. It's just not going to work out in this first game for UCLA. Oh my god, this is awesome. By the way, is Utah back? I don't know.

I mean, think about it. If Sione Vachy can go from defensive back to running back, and the team can still mow over people, it's the foundation that powers this team. And the foundation that powers it is the coaching staff. The coaching staff is still there. So yes. Yeah, I thought I heard somebody else saying Utah was gonna be sneaky.

Well, Spencer Fennel, their right tackle is one of the best offensive linemen in the country and he's a potential first round draft pick like they're, they should be back to being Utah. I mean, everybody knows what that means. Like the typical Kyle Whittingham team like the program that won two Pac-12 titles on the way out of the Pac-12. So I don't know that's ever been the case. Like when's the last time they had style with like a guy who had Snoop?

Snoop Hartley was the closest closest thing to it but he wasn't video game type guy like he wasn't huge numbers i'll say this last year they were about plus 250 in the market to win the big 12 nobody knew who was going to win that conference right right now they're sitting 10 to 1 and i think they have a better quarterback sorry camera rising i think they have i just i think they're better than last year's team and they're not being priced that way in the market very interesting all right I want to go to this, now that you've broken the seal on the conference champion one,

I want to go to this one because I had to look this up to see if it was even real. It is, you have Southern Mist win the Sun Belt plus 350. No, 35 to 100. Oh no, no, no, plus 35 to 100, right? 35 to one. Yeah. Yeah. Plus 3500. Okay. So yes, 35 to one Southern Miss to win the Sunbelt. For those who don't know, Southern Miss was one of the worst teams in the country last year. They were 111 last in

the Sunbelt. Marshall was the Sunbelt champion. Because Marshall and Charles Huff got crosswise. Marshall let Charles Huff's contract expire. Charles Huff went to Southern Miss and brought the whole freaking team that won the Sun Belt last year, and now you can get that team at 35 to one. Exactly, I don't even know if I need to say anything. So a coaching staff revamp, Huff brings, he brings his defensive coordinator. So the defense that you had at Marshall wasn't just good on the G5 level. It was great on the national level. And now they're all going to be there for Southern Miss on the offensive side. Yeah, well, but

they will find somebody, they'll identify somebody. I have pure faith in this coaching staff. And then the offensive side, Blake Anderson is coming in to call this offense. Can you tell me who knows the Sunbelt better than a guy that was Arkansas State forever? So I think that's a huge plus. Per 24-7 Sports and Southern Miss won the Sunbelt Portal race by a mile. Go out there and look at the portal standings in the Sunbelt. They signed a 4-star from Marshall. They signed 36 3-stars. Like, I don't think anybody else in the Sun Belt signed more than like 17 3-stars. They're going to blow out any other team in the water when it comes to roster and what the talent that they have on hand. Quarterback Braylon Braxton is coming over at 19 TDs to 2 INTs, 500 rushing yards. That's a, that's a quarterback is going to do some damage here. And then 4-star corner Josh Moten comes over. He's a shutdown corner. These numbers are sick. 5 interceptions, 6 pass breakups. That's NFL-level numbers. So Southern Miss is

absolutely, right now at this moment, which I'm gonna have to put some more money on it when we get off, Southern Miss is absolutely being priced on the Will Hall team. They're being priced on what they were last year. They're not being priced on what's been happening this offseason. They're being priced on what they were last year. They're not being priced on what's been happening this off season. Uh, can I Venmo you? I have to drive up to Kansas if it's too much, but sure. I want it. The Arkansas books won't let me go over like 300 bucks.

So yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I want it. Every single time he explains why he has a play like I just like, how do I get this? But that, how often does this happen? Because we talked about this with Tyler, because we said, is this a is this common where, you know, the schools to get covered more that have the bigger audiences, that more people watch their games

are the line sharper. And he's like, yes and no, not really. Like sometimes you'll get a really sharp sunbelt line. Sometimes you won't. But this this feels like somebody was asleep at the switch. So what's going on is is Every odds maker team they have a team that's dedicated not just to college football in the offseason, but to other sports They're all really focused on the NBA playoffs. They're all focused on the Derby They're focused on other things

so they kind of do a copy and paste and when they get the G5 level, it becomes even worse because they're really not paying attention. And frankly, let's just be honest, like, if you're going to be a surprise team, it's not happening in a Power 4 conference usually, ever. Maybe the Big 12 is wild. I don't know. But in the G5, there are so many loose numbers. Like, I believe I've cashed an AppState 30-to-1 a couple years ago. I've cashed a UAB 30-to-1 a couple years ago. Like, they're just, oddsmakers are just not paying attention to what is going on in these G5 numbers. And Southern Miss is a pure example of that at 35 to one. First time I've wanted somebody not to listen to our show. Let's release this after we all get our wagers in, but that number will be out there. We are pre-recording this by the way, so nobody knows how long it's been since we said these words.

But now I just I'm fascinated by that one because very rarely does something kind of slap you in the face. Like the last time I remember one like that was 2018 West Virginia. I think their preseason win total was like six and a half or something like that. I'm like over, over, over, over like because that was the best team Holgerson had at West Virginia. But let's talk, speaking of win totals, and people you think may go over. One of the plays you sent us is Oklahoma plus six and a

half. Yeah, more than six and a half. Yeah, count me in as a sucker for these teams that not only get quarterbacks out of the portal, but get their offensive coordinators to write and? And Oklahoma's one of them. I'm really high on them. I project 8 wins versus a market that's at 6½. And, you know, this is one of the highest experienced teams in the SEC on the offensive side, but that's because of quarterback John Matier. I'm not going to go through his numbers. They're the most insane cheat code things you've ever seen. Now he's coming into Norman to really, I mean, just think about that Sooners, that whole unit last year, like Jackson

Arnold, ineffective, benched. We go to a freshman. All the wide receivers are hurt. And offensive line, five guys that never even played together, all got hurt. Like, there was so much injury going on with Oklahoma last year, there's going to be positive progression from that part. Ben Arbuckle comes in as offensive coordinator from Washington State to run his offense for John Mattier. We are done with Seth Larchell air raids. We are done with old-school Texas air raids. We are going to Ben Arbuckle's offense. And, you know, no team is probably better prepared from a roster perspective, from health, defense, coordinator, coaches. This is the one team in the SEC I think think is gonna make a big rise. And the big comment out of spring practice, right?

Like last week, the comments were, well, we still need to find a tight end in the portal. Well, I went and looked at what Washington State did with a tight end last year. Only 13 passes completed to the number one tight end. I'm sure they can find somebody to catch 13 passes from John Mattier. I have him as comfortable favorites in five games, coin flips against Michigan, South Carolina, Missouri Missouri and LSU. You can get over six and a half easy here. I think they finish eight or higher.

I gotta tell you. It's interesting. We've gotten yelled at by folks who say, well look at what they got out of the portal. You know, they're relying on Group of Five and FCS transfers. And I'm curious how you feel about that because obviously Ari and I have talked up a tier a ton and people have gotten sick of that and that's the backlash we get. Yeah, and we get it. I mean our podcast over at Action Network gets it too and the thing is how do I quantify a camscape boo into an Excel sheet? I can't, right?

You do all these things at Sacramento State and then I'm just supposed to s believe you're going to p state. So FCS players, pl much playing time, but ma recruit. It is impossible they are, but we do have and what he has done. I a this guy and running O. E

the way he is like running a general like he is comp of the entire program. Uh, it's, it's been quite interesting if you read some of the things coming out of Norman. I don't think you should say that though, because as people said about Jackson Arnold and there's some Jackson Arnold stepped into the building, everybody gravitated toward him. Like he was, he was the man. Um, I believe you, I believe you. I really do think that, I mean, we've been talking, I said that Oklahoma

is one of the sleepers. Um, We've been saying that for a long time and also to like a lot of their numbers that you're probably going to go off of. From last year, aren't all that reliable considering half their team was out. Yep, absolutely. And tough schedule. I mean, upgrading schedule from the Big 12 of the SEC. They weren't used to the grind of the week by week. So it was a learning curve. And I expect you to to be completely prepared. And I, you know, I kind of think the whole offensive side of that, I think it was a thing where Venables was like, OK, I'm washing my hands. I need someone else to come in and take care of this. Let's forget the old-school error rate. Let's get

something new, dynamic, and let's see if we can get a quarterback. And they did all those things. It's going to be fun to watch and you know, I just think. This like you said in the power conferences, it's so hard to find a surprise like Indiana was that surprise last year, I think, and I have a hard time finding anybody who reminds me of them who could just come out of nowhere. Illinois is getting the chatter and I'm not buying it at all. I understand games last year like they're not. I don't like if they're good. I know supposed to be good. Right. It's hard. Why aren't you buying it? Uh, there's I just don't I I'm not a black. You want to call it Brett Bielma fatigue.

Can I can I lean on that from a personal lead on Arkansas? I as a as a guy that's a plus. Don view as an Arkansas guy? As a guy that has donated? Plus, you're fandom in here, Colin. Like, is this Arkansas fandom bubbling up? Isn't that the whole one mistake of gambling allowing your preconceived bias to change the way you view the process? Isn't that the mistake people make? That is a huge mistake. But financially, I have thrown so much into the Razorback Foundation during the Brett Bielma years.

I think this is just a hands-off thing for me. But you can't think about it critically. I get it. Right. I'm biased. You're biased. You're actually telling me about it. And it's real. Yeah.

But at least you know that about yourself, too. That's yeah. Yeah. I'm just it's a stay away from me on Illinois completely because I do think if it's price I don't I think it's I think it's a little overpriced because they're getting all the chatter. There's really no value in any of their numbers whatsoever. It's not a personal thing or anything. It really is the fact that they're just being priced the way everybody's talking. Yeah, it's not. You're taking a bet that isn't out of nowhere when everybody's expecting it.

Yeah. Which with Indiana, we all got our money in before Kurt Signetti took that podium in Indianapolis. We all had our money in before he became a national thing with his with what he said. So it was what he said early on or we're coming after Michigan and Ohio State that and you were in. Well the James Madison defense was much like Marshall from last year and it is something that you can quantify and something you can count on and you knew that he was going to bring that to Indiana. So yeah keep in mind what's going on at Southern Miss, because it's kind of what Indiana did, getting Kurt Signetti to basically shift the staff and the team all the way up to Bloomington. And, you know, there's a track record there. And when you can trust it, you have a coach that's that confident, you have to back him up. I mean, it's the same thing with Kaelan DeBoer. The guy never lost forever. So why would you, why would you ever fade him?

lost forever. So why would you, why would you ever fade him? So most of these are very interesting in that, that you, you know, there's a little bit of surprise element to it. One of the ones you sent us is the team that everybody thinks is going to win this conference, but there's still a plus number in front of their, next to their name. And that's Clemson to win the ACC. And I believe it plus 145 right now. to win the ACC and I believe it plus 145 right now and. But. This feels it doesn't feel there's no sure things, but this feels like one of the safest bets of the ones you've sent us mathematically. This should be minus 120. This should not be in the plus range whatsoever. And when you look six of their

eight ACC games, the Tigers will be double digit favorites. So even if they bombed out and finished six and two, I mean, you could probably still make the ACC championship game. There's no Miami on this schedule, again, somehow. SMU comes to Clemson. I mean, that was supposed to be pretty tough. Louisville could be a rough game.

I don't know, or a testy game, I should say, but that's a revenge game, because Clemson needs to win that one from last year. Georgia Tech could be testy, but Clemson didn't have a problem with them two years ago in the Buster-Falkner offense. So, you know, I just, there's a, it's a, the dominoes have to fall for Clemson to not be in the ACC championship game. And think about Kade Klubnik, like everything finally clicked last year. 36 to 6 TD to INT ratio, a huge big-time throw to Turn turn over worthy play ratio that was more than two to one and the portal oh my gosh everybody hell froze over dabo dipped into the portal he went and got himself a wide receiver Tristan

Smith who turned a lot of heads in the spring game and then linebacker Jeremiah Alexander from Alabama led the team in tackles during the spring game and by the way instead of just promoting assistance to coordinator, Dabo Sweeney hellfroze over again, because we have stepped out of that footprint of, of upgrading from inside. We went and got Tom Allen as a defensive coordinator. I mean, that is an elite defensive coordinator to go and grab. No matter where Tom Allen has been, the defense has usually been pretty elite. So there are a lot of things happening at Clemson in the positive perspective, especially with Dabo recognizing that you can hire outside of the organization and that you can go to the transfer portal if you have a hole. And I think everybody should recognize that. And also adding in one of what could be one of the best Edrushers in the country and will help. And then, you know, having some good young talent at receiver, which is something that hasn't been the case there either for the past few years. And I wonder if you find them to be in a track of national championship play. Well, I think the non-conference slate is really why I kind of backed off the whole

national title or to make the playoff. You see LSU on there, LSU, I mean, to me, this is Brian Kelly's got to produce here. You see South Carolina in there, which, well, I don't know what to do with them. They are just crazy game to game. You don't know which version of South Carolina you're going to get. You know, and maybe they drop one to SMU at home, I doubt it. But I mean, you know, the national title thing is, now that we've had a year of this playoff in this format, you can still make the playoff with two losses. So you could lose LSU. I mean, it's, the national title thing is so hard these days to predict, because a

three-loss team is going to get in. Two-loss teams are absolutely still in the mix. Those are harder to predict. I think conference championships are where the bulk of money and investment should go rather than national title anymore, because it's such a crapshoot that is, that is being decided by a committee that is arguing with each other about the format and everything else. So I would rather leave it into my hands and say that this team can win their conference. The number I see on that's 18 to 1, though. That's a pretty big number for them, isn't it? It's not going to get any worse, right? It's not going to be 20, 25. Maybe they lose to LSU and it drops to 20, but I think it's not going to go far.

Yeah, I might put that in myself. 18 to 1 is a lot for like, I feel like they're one of the five core teams that you would anticipate would be in that position this year. I agree. I agree. 100%. Yeah, I think the Tom Allen thing's the most important one because they had talent on defense. It wasn't like they lacked good defensive players, but they were a bad defense at the end of the season last year. You like you watch that Texas game. Texas was not that much more talented than them, but was just running through them like a high school team. And I feel like you bring in Tom Allen,

he deploys the talent on defense a little bit better. Suddenly, you're on fairly equal footing with those teams that are competing for the national title. Yeah, everywhere Tom Allen has been, I mean, think of Penn State last year. I mean, that defense was just as his lead as it always is. And Tom Allen was a great get. And I'm just, I was surprised that Dabo finally decided to go outside the, the four walls of his complex

and hire from it. It worked with Brent Venables. That was the most important hire we ever made. So, uh, you mentioned LSU and that's, that's Clemson's first opponent. And this is not a play you sent us, but I'm just curious to get your take on, on LSU because you mentioned you think, you know, Brian Kelly's got to produce, their numbers at eight and a half. I think if you're an LSU fan, you're like, oh God, even nine wins isn't good enough.

Like I need more than that. But how tough is that to get over eight and a half with the schedule they have? I make it 8.85, so they're not on my radar, but they do return 85% on both sides of the ball. This is make or break. The problem that I've had with LSU, a couple of problems I've had with LSU, they're losing games at the end. And I don't know if that's coaching. I don't think it's players. I think it is coaching in the decisions that they're making. They're losing games at the end of the game. And that all points back to coaching. But they still have not found a defensive coordinator that can stop explosive plays. That's, I mean, this used to be DBU. I mean, there used to be defensive backs at LSU that were elite and they

would go to the NFL, and now they're getting burned year after year after year for explosive plays. And until we get a defensive coordinator that can stop those from happening in SEC play, it's just hard for me to back them and think that they can be good enough to win a national title. I mean, I love NUS. I love the LSU team in general. And, you know, I used to say all the time, if you give Brian Kelly 5 years at LSU, he should absolutely win a national title. Something's going on from a coaching perspective, because you're losing too many close games at the end of the game, and your defense and the secondary has not been able to stop any passing attack. any passing attack. Hey, Colin, I don't know how far deep you are in your power ratings or, you know, how much work still needs to be done on assuming quite a bit. But there's one team out there that Andy and I have had really a hard time trying to quantify. And this is off the script. And if you're

like, I don't know, that's what me and Andy says, I don't feel bad. But like, what are the numbers, say Florida State supposed to be this year? Yeah, you know, that's a that's one of those teams preseason, you're not really wanting to go out on a limb and say they're going to do this and do that. I'm actually scrolling my power ratings to find them, and I just found them around 65th. So that's not good. They got a minus 3 for their experience that's coming back, but they got a plus 2 in the coaching bump. So they kind of evened out on their PR this year. And then from a win-total perspective, I have them in the middle of the ACC sitting at 4.8 wins. That's probably not good. Looks like SP Plus is about 5.8 wins. So neither of us predicting to go to a bowl here and a lot of production lost on the offensive side.

Well, 4.8 wins total, including their non-conference? Including, yep. That's a lot. Well, their non-conference includes Alabama and Florida. So it's not easy. No, I know. No, I know, but I didn't know we were back in the two-win ACC territory.

Can I ask a question? Do we think Gus Malzahn is an OC? And I love Gus, right? He's from down the road. But do we think this is a great offensive hire? I mean, the Wildcat did not, has not worked in some parts. It's been broken.

We had what, five quarterbacks going at UCF last year? Like I just- That was my problem is watching him at UCF. He didn't look like himself anymore. It was, they were slow. Like one of the great things about the Gus Malzahn offense back in the day was you would be watching the defense be confused and the ball gets snapped and they're screwed

and you're gaining five, six yards before anybody touches you. I was at the Florida UCF game last year. Florida is having issues getting lined up against that offense and UCF is just sitting there waiting for them to line up and you see them staring over at Gus like waiting for him to tell him to go and it's like go you know so I want to see him get back to who he was before and it just doesn't feel like that that offense moves as quickly as it used to and it may be that the at the time you know KJ Jefferson was still the quarterback uh that that wasn't working the way they wanted it to. Maybe Thomas Casalano's could do that. But Colin, that, that's my issue there is

if it is like that, it will not work. If it is like we used to see at Auburn back in the day, when that defense is shifting around and the offense is like, yeah, you're not ready, let's go. Then I want to see that. KJ did show up pretty apathetic, right? I mean, I feel like once he got out of the Kendall Brawls offense, and he'd been through so many coordinators, and the Chad Morris is where he started, like, he got there with Gus, and Gus was telling me at Big 12 Media Days last year that, you know, this is a version of Cam Newton that perfectly set to run the offense that I call. And I was excited for UCF last year, but KJ was very apathetic at times. And then you ran through freshman quarterbacks, other quarterbacks, and there were highlights that definitely were highlights. But I mean,

Colorado just blew them up and down the field on their own turf in the bounce house. So it was a surprising year for UCF. I wanted to know when you're in the season and you have your ratings, how much changes on a week to week basis, when are you typically putting your bets in? And do you find yourself riding the same undervalued teams all year, or is it like start from scratch every Monday? Well, the first three weeks of the season,

the power ratings take a bigger adjustment than any other time of the season. At the end of the season, I'd be surprised if they moved by like one point in the power rating. So, um, you know, for me, it's getting ahead of the curve and how you get ahead of the curve, which is the public sees things on TV, they want to go in bed at the next week, but how you get ahead of the curve is you check every single box

score on Saturday and you see who's kind of a box score fraud is what we'd like to call it over at action, which is total yards. You didn't win it. Turnovers helped you get your scores, you know,'s kind of a box score fraud is what we like to call it over in action, which is total yards You didn't win it turnovers help you get your scores, you know that kind of thing There's a lot of box score frauds out there You have to identify them and then go and fade them the next week at the same time There's also teams that are absolutely dominating, but maybe the score ended up by three points So it's those kinds of things where you have to get ahead of the public consumption that they see on TV. So, and you have to realize also, that if you see a team that's just absolutely blowing another team out, and it's legit, you know, you have to go ahead and put

that into your power rating number so that the next week you have to overinflate the value. The books absolutely do that. If they see a 30-point winner, they're going to release that team the next week by probably like 4 points more than what my power rating is. And it's because they know the public's going to come in and get it. Well, I'm curious how much individual results because when we were talking to Tyler, he said he just ignored the Notre Dame Northern Illinois game last year because it was so aberrant and so anomalous. How do you decide when something's just flukey? Yeah, I think turnover luck plays a big part of it. I think kicking, kicking luck is a is a big part of it. Flu, those things that are those are things that are considered flukey. And you have to realize that not all fumbles are created the same. I

mean, there are teams that drop the ball 20 times on the carpet, and maybe they recovered it all 20 times. So do you say they're lucky? Or do you just ignore that stat? Because there's no turnover. So you have to keep track of fumbles and kicking and that's how you kind of have a luck factor. Yeah, yeah, I think that it's so fascinating because so here's something that I remember. like it happened yesterday, but I covered Ohio State and I was in Iowa City the year they got their ass kicked by Iowa. Do you remember that? That was the tight end game where they did. But I remember the spread dropped like four points or three points or something like in the last few hours before the game started, very abnormal line movement. And it was almost like the book knew.

You know, college football is interesting because sometimes teams come out and it just looks like they have their heads up their ass. Right? Like they're just like not wanting to play. You know, it's a quiet stadium. They're not, you know, whatever, whatever reason they have that days in their eye where it's like, I don't know where I'm at. That to me

football more than other like a team that you thin and isn't who they are a that Vegas quantifies tha just times where you're your pants down because was who they were and th play a completely awful g

there's one example I can point you at, which is there are teams that are very Jekyll and Hyde, game to game, and actually quarter to quarter. That's why having a power rating is extremely important, so that you know, if you think that Vegas is wrong, and you can see the public is all on one side, you can go the other way. Now, some teams, you're right, look like they have their head up their ass. Let me give you an example last year, because it played out the entire year. Georgia was one of the worst teams in the nation through the scripted portion of the game. The first 3 series, you got nothing out of them. Alabama, I believe, led the nation in 1st Quarter point differential. They were insanely hot in the 1st Quarter. Now when those teams met up, what happened, right? So I think there are teams that are built from a coaching staff to really fly during the scripted portion. Then there are teams where the coaches are so good, they adjust series to series to series

and they get better as the game goes on. So I think you're saying the opposite happened when they met up. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, the opposite happened. So it wasn't the opposite. No, I jumped on Georgia. Georgia adjusted and came back. No, Georgia. Oh yeah, Georgia was getting its butt kicked. You're right. Yeah, but it was like 28-0, but that wasn't just Georgia thing.

Like Alabama was blowing everybody out in the first quarter and then they would let everybody come back. And Georgia was terrible the first quarter and then they tried to warm up around half. But that's a coaching thing. Scripted portions, coaching on the fly. Like Ohio State could go drive to drive and completely change who they are. Yeah, that's, I mean, I want to mention, the Ohio State's the number one, I mean, I covered them for 10 years and I saw,

you know, on a given Saturday, it would just be, oh, it's one of those days where they're, they're just not, not in the stadium today. You know, and I'm sure that happens to everybody. Some coaches are stubborn, and they won't go off the script. You mentioned the coaching bump, and you said Florida State got a little bump, so I'm assuming like Tony White coming as the DC is that like, how much is Ryan Grubb coming to Alabama? How much does that help? It didn't give a point to Alabama because there's familiarity there with Kalen DeBoer, and there's been a ton of track record success.

And I think both DeBoer and Grubb maybe had a one year separation and they probably text each other and said, hey, let's get back together. So to me, that was worth a point to Alabama's power rating. Yeah, I think they're gonna be awesome. I don't know. Who's playing quarterback?

I don't know, that's my... I'm not sure it matters cause the other 21 starters were really good. I think that helps. So... I don't know, I still sure it matters because the other 21 starters were really good. I think, I think that helps. So, I don't know. I still think it matters. It matters in the playoff. I don't know if it matters to getting to the playoff.

So, but this, Colin, this has been incredibly fine. Hopefully you, you have some time to come back as we get closer to the season, because I just, I love this. Very. As long as I'm not busy driving up to Kansas, I'll always have time. I mean, but like now I feel, I love this. Very exciting. As long as I'm not busy driving up to Kansas, I'll always have time to come on here. But like now everything you do over here- I feel bad.

I feel like I've sent you to, like my excitement over the Southern Miss thing has sent you to Kansas again. Well, this is probably a junior, senior level conversation for people that are gamblers. Learn how to get runners in different states for you. Yeah. And especially if they can take the tax hit.

That's my favorite. If you guys run up under their name. But Ari, that's why your futures never go over 10 grand. You always make them go about nine and you just make several bets. Yeah. See, this is the advanced. In Arkansas, I can. Absolutely. Yeah. All right. Colin, thank you so much. and we'll talk to you again soon. Thanks for having me guys. Appreciate you. That is Colin Wilson. Whoo boy, whoo boy that the Southern Miss one is wild.

The Arkansas stuff is wild. Arkansas stuff was like, do we need to get somebody to aggregate that? Like, I mean, that was that was interesting. Yeah, as and look I feel bad for Sam Pittman like that like Colin said Sam Pittman seems like a really good dude. He's perpetually on the hot seat. I don't know how you ever like I do wonder how you ever get off the hot seat at Arkansas without winning you know 1011 games which is very difficult to do there. So we do probably have a prolonged conversation about what like Arkansas's actual like sweet spot is for not

being on the hot seat like what are the expectations there 8 and four? Like what do you have to do there for them? I don't think that's good enough. Most of the time I think in this schedule is really hard. Good Lord, but I think you gotta do better than that. And that's the problem. That's where you probably they

they're not like the Kentucky fans that we always said with, you know, why why we always joke that Kentucky is the best job in the country. Like they're not happy with eight wins. They probably happy with eight wins this year. But once you do that, then you got to win nine or ten. Yeah, you know, the eight isn't the destination. 8 is the stepping stone to something bigger. And I think they've achieved the stepping stone, but they haven't gotten past it, which is the frustrating thing for them. Right. Bobby

Petrino in that, that 2011 season, they were, they were that good, but they were not, you know, when they played LSU in Alabama, they got pretty well smoked. And then losing Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. So it's not they've not been there like the 06 team was good but lost to Florida in the SEC Championship game. It's a tough job. It's a very, very tough job. All right. One more thing before we go.

Oh basketball news rule change in basketball. I am happy about this because they're going to add a coach's challenge and it sounds like the coach's challenge will replace a lot of these stopping and looking at the monitor during the game. I think they're still going to do it late in the game, but for most of the game, you get the one challenge. If something's egregiously wrong, you challenge it, they decide whether to fix it.

This is what the NBA does. I'm so tired watching college basketball and watching them go to the monitor every other play. Yeah. Like with four minutes to go in the first half, who cares? Like, if the coach doesn't care enough to use the challenge, nobody cares. So thank you, college basketball.

We appreciate that. Yeah. And thank you for watching, for listening, for subscribing, for hitting the like button, for leaving comments, for leaving five star reviews. We love you. And hey, we'll be back tomorrow. A report from on the scene at ACC Spring Meetings. Talk to you Tuesday.