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Make-Or-Break Week 11 For Cincinnati Bengals? Will Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase get reinforcements?

November 15, 20240 comments♥ 0
00:00It goes without saying that this is a massive game for the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night football in L.A.Let's talk about just how significant it is with some numbers.You are locked on Bengals, your daily Cincinnati Bengals podcast.Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.What up Bengals fans and welcome to another episode of the Locked on Bengals podcast.I'm your host, Jake Liscoe.He's your host, James Rupin.We are the Lockdown Bengals podcast on the Lockdown Podcast.
00:33on the lockdown podcastthat we're covering your teamevery day on YouTubeand everywhere you get your podcast.If you're new to the show,you can of course subscribeand join the everydayers.I still remember you every dayers
00:44and all those out therethat make us their first listenand keep us part of their routineis they try to stay up to dateas the Bengals navigatea difficult season this year.Today's episode is sponsored by Fandlewhere you will get $150 in bonus bets
00:58if you win your first $5.00 bet.That's at fandul.comto check that out.out in James, there are some injuries that we're keeping an eye on for this team this week.We will discuss some key starters that are on the injury report and their prognosisas the Bengals are going to be heading out to Los Angeles on Friday.But before we get there, I mentioned it at the top.Obviously, a huge game for the Bengals this week.
01:25You don't have to look at statistical models to know that.Getting to 5 and 6 going into the buy versus dropping to 4 and 7 going into the buy is an intuitive.massively massive difference, but we do have some numbers we can look at as well.The Bengals face a 30% playoff odds swing again this week.If they win, the PFF model has them at 47% to make the playoffs.If they lose 16% to make the playoffs, a 30% difference, 31% difference, in fact, based on the result this weekend.Yeah, I'll go ahead and maybe I shouldn't do this, but I'm pretty confident just talking withveterans in the locker room, that 16% might as well be zero.
02:08They know how important this game is.And they, going to four and seven in talking playoffs is not something that you, regardless,if you have Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow and they're playing grade and, oh man,Trey Hendrickson.I will not talk playoffs, period, next week, if they're four and seven.because that's such a distant thing.Bad football teams are four and seven.Playoff teams are not.
02:37And does that mean that there isn't a path after this week?Of course, there's a path.But it gets much, much tougher.And at some point, you've got to show who you are.And last week was one of those moments, and there was a lot of good in last week.They lost the game because there was also a lot of bad.You have to be a little bit better this week at the same time.if you go to Los Angeles and you play the way you did in Baltimore,
03:05there's reason to believe, especially if your stars play the way they did,that you can win that game.And so get this win, lick your wounds during the buy,and gear up for December and early January,for a sprint in the final month plus of the seasonwhere you're going to need to stack wins.They haven't really done it this year yet,and this needs to be the start of it.
03:29And maybe they go out and they do it.And if so, then you'll see almost the light at the end of the tunnel,which has been such a weird season.But if you fall into a four and seven hole,I'm afraid that there really aren't many ladders that allow you to climb out of it.And if you get the five and six, you're almost even with the groundand even in the playoff race,you're nearly have a 50% chance of making the postseason.
03:56And all you've got to do is get in.I don't think there's a team in the AFCthat would want to see the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs.You don't want to deal with that quarterback and the firepower around him,regardless of how flawed this team is.So you just got to get in.And I think, Jake, if we're talking about,if this is locked on Bengals path to the playoffs,
04:19how the Bengals get to the playoffs,it has to start with a win in Los Angeles.Because if they lose on Sunday,I just don't see how they really.realistically are going to be that team that can make that run and climb out of the holder.You mentioned at some point they have to show who they are.That assumes, of course, that they haven't shown us who they are yet.And maybe we've just seen who they are.
04:42If they are not who they've shown us to be so far, I do think that like their path to the playoffs,that needs to start sooner than later.That needs to start this week against a good team that they're playing in the Los Angeleschargers that have found their footing coming out of their byreweens.Justin Herbert playing a much better brand of football than he did to start the season.And Harbaugh's guys buying into Harbaugh's culture, the defense, the best scoring defense in the league.Although PFF would have you believe they are not close to the best defense in the league.They have had the best results of any defense in the league.
05:15A lot of that informed by their strength of opponent and their strength of victory.I think they're the second lowest strength of victory in the AFC with only the Bengals having a lower strength of victory.So it tells you a little bit of something about who.the charges of play because they've won six games and the Bengals have only won four and thosestrength of victory metrics get a little bit weird when you're dealing with small sample sizes.But as you said, James, if they're going to show us that they are somebody else, then they'veshown us to be so far, which is a team that can't finish games and can't find the one moreplay to win games.
05:51This is as good a time as any to start that because of the stakes.And it's not just the Chargers.I mean, they should be incredibly grateful right now that there's a seventh playoff team in the current NFL format.Because if there were six, their playoff odds would be vanishingly small already because they would be trying to catch up directly with the team they're playing this weekend.The Los Angeles Chargers is six and three currently in that 60.But since our competition remains the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts primarily, and that's if they win, that goes a long way.in bolstering their chances to sneak in is that seventh seed.And you mentioned the ladder back up to ground level.
06:31I would say the ground is a little bit lower than it was to start the seasonin terms of the level they would be reaching to sneak in as a seventh seedversus what we were talking about for preseason expectations for this team.But you're right, if they get into the playoffs and they have the quarterback playingthe way he's playing this year, that gives them a chance.But again, to me, a lot of this comes back to the fact that there is a seventh,the seventh team in the playoffs in each conference right now,that is a huge benefit to the Bengals this year at four and seven,
07:01where most years,or four and six,where most years you're not talking about the playoffs at that point.And you said we won't be doing it next week.Prior to this playoff format change,we wouldn't be talking about it this week,and the fact that it's the Colts and the Broncosthat you're dealing with as a competition to get that spot.
07:18It's not necessarily the Titans of the worldthat you're dealing with as your competition there.Yeah.And no doubt, I think that's a big part of why I'm still optimistic, but why it's like, okay,well, the Chargers, I think they're a good team.But at some point, you have to beat a good team if you are a playoff team.At some point, you have to show that you're deserving of a playoff berth.And how do you do that?
07:45But you start by winning some of these games, that you should, or that we at least had youwinning coming into the year.And let's be honest, the ground floor.And really that's getting back to 500 in my mind.That isn't, for me, that isn't preseason expectations because they really can't do that anymore.There's really no way for them to meet our preseason expectations from a regular season perspective.Yeah, that was my only point is that the floor is down now from where it was free season.No doubt, no doubt.
08:17And so what it is is, all right, can they figure it out enough knowing their flaws, knowing how well Joebro and Jamar Chase are playing.Can they get healthy at the right time?Can they get hot to end November,which is, this is their last game in November.And then you welcome the Steelers to town on December 1stwith a ton on the line there.And if you can do that, if you can get these two,
08:45then you're back to six and six.But how do you get two in a row?You got to get the first one.And this is a huge one.This is a quality chargers team.It's an AFC North style team.the Chargers could switch with the Browns and they play pretty similar to an AFC North team,the way they win with defense and running game.
09:03And they're pretty damn disciplined when it comes to those things and sticking with their brand of football.So the Bengals, they're going to have to play at that level.I think it's a nice test.It's a huge test.And we'll see if they can get it done.A bit of a litmus test for both teams, as we discussed on the crossover yesterday.Coming up next, let's discuss the paths to victory in this game.Will Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase get some help?
09:29Or is it going to have to be the Joe and Jamar show once again,as the Bengals go to take on a stingy defenseand an offense has found us footing a little bit in recent weeks?We will discuss that coming up next.Today's show is brought to by Mint Mobile.With big wireless providers, what you see is never what you get.Somewhere between the store and your first month's bill,the price you thought you were paying magically skyrockets. With MittMobil, you'll never have to worry
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10:44payment required a equivalent to 15 dollars a month new customers on their first three monthplan only. Speed slower above 40 gigabytes on unlimited plan. Additional taxes fees and restrictionsapply C-Mit mobile for details. This episode of Lockdown Bengals also sponsored by Fandul, America'snumber one sportsbook with an awesome offer right now. All you got to do to take advantage of thatawesome offer if you are a new customer is place a $5 bet. And when you win that $5 bet,you'll get $150 in bonus bets. That's for free if you win your first $5 bet. So if you're looking atthe one and a half point spread in Bengals Chargers this weekend at fandul.com and you're interestedthere, great, that makes it easy. Maybe you're looking at the money line straight up where the
11:28Bengals are plus 110. Maybe you're looking at one of the interesting props like each team is goingto score in all four quarters and you're expecting a ton of points. That's plus 800. Well,FanDuel has all those options and player props and so much more. Not only that, but for livebetting, you can check out stats and live play by playing the same place you place your bets withFandul. You can check it out at fandul.com to join today. Again, that's $150 in bonus bets if you winyour first $5 bet with Fandul, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. One of the big reasons,Jake, why we're optimistic still at four and six. And we're optimistic, even though theBengals haven't beaten a team with a winning record. And we're optimistic despite the fact that
12:14they can't finish games. And really the only reason I would say, it isn't coaching, it isn't theoffensive line. It isn't the awesome pass rush. It's Joe Burrow and Jemar Chase. And as we record this,I'm one seat over from where Jammar was like an hour and a half ago, two hours ago afterpractice. It's kind of wild because I'm sure you watch both press conferences, but Joe Burrowreally loose, calm, cool, collected, joking around on Wednesday. And Jemar Chase, the same waytoday on Thursday. I think it's interesting that the two stars thatIt certainly set the tone, that everyone knows that the Bengals need them to play at a high level, their attitude this week where they're focused.I have no doubt about that.
12:59But it's not like they were throwing chairs.They were joking around.And I saw that in the locker room as well as when they were up here at the press conference room.Yeah.I feel like I felt that when I watched Mike Hilton talking at his locker after Thursday's practice as well.There's certainly an understanding of where they are.And you can feel that with Joe Burrow as well.talking about the way he's going to have to play because they're four and six and acknowledging
13:23the situation that they're in, but they're also, as you said, loose, joking around. And I do findthat interesting. I agree with you that the reasons for optimism for this team start withJoe Burrow and Jamar Chase. I wouldn't go so far as to say I'm strictly speaking optimistic.You know, I don't know if I'm quite glass half full. I'm kind of glass half. And I'm not quitepessimistic or optimistic, but I agree with you that reasons for optimism would certainly beJoe Burrow and Jamar. Yeah, that's what I said. That's the only reason. You said the reasonswe are optimistic. So I was just clarifying the we that you use. That's all. It's fadantic. I know.People are used to that. If Joe Burrell wasn't on the team, they wouldn't have a shot in hell.
14:06If Jamar Chase wasn't on the team, they wouldn't have a shot in hell. That's all.Yeah. And I think that that point is as well taken. The other reasons that you could throw into themix are guys that we're watching on injury list this week.But it starts with Joe and Jamar.That is the reason that they almost beat the Baltimore Ravens last week.Those two guys have put on shows in big games this year.And it just hasn't been enough, unfortunately.Whether that's their fault or not.
14:33And spoiler, it's mostly not.It kind of speaks to the state of the team.And so when we ask, does it have to be the Joe and Jamar show again?Well, largely yes.Yes, it does, but they need somebody else still.And we're going to be asking this question again.They need someone else to help.They need other guys to make plays in pivotal moments
14:54because they haven't had those pivotal moment plays frequently enough, at least,especially against good teams this year.And as a result, you know, if you're on social media this weekand you're a Bengals fan, you're saying,oh, the Bengals would be 8 and 2 if you flipped every one-score game result this year.Well, because they're not making those plays in those moments,you look at the betrayal index, which was up on the athletes.athletic today. And that's essentially just a difference of your quarterback's performance versus
15:20your defensive performance. And the Bengals aren't winning these games when the defense lets them down,even when Joe Burrow plays great. And at some point, and you've seen this throughout NFL history,the most common comparison to this year's Bengals team is those Drew Bree Saints teams. At some point,the rest of the team is bad enough that even when you have stars playing at the level that JoeBurrow, Jamar Chase, T. Hedrigan, T. Higgins, when he's on the field.And that's another topic that we'll get to.Even when those guys are playing at that level, you need team football.You still need it at some level.
15:54It can't be as bad as it's been for the Bengals,especially against good teams this year.Yeah, it's what's so mind-boggling is how so many guys have regressed Cam Taylor-Brit,for example, or just not gotten back.the form at post-injury, Sam Hubbard, for example, or not developed, whether it's a JosephOsai, or maybe starting to develop but not getting enough opportunities because of injuryand now because Lou Aniromo likes playing Joseph Osai over Miles Murphy.Like so many things, where it's those things.
16:37Like we've spent a lot of time the past this week, a whole show on the front office anddiscussing the state of things and everything that had gone wrong, and I get it.But also, some of it's just, why aren't some of these guys playing better than before?I'll give you another one.And I think this one's interesting because we focus so much on defense.And Mike Hilton brought it up on Thursday.And on the surface, I get it, right?You have a 5-9 nickel cornerback.
17:06You take them off the field on third down.Do you think they should be taking them off the field on third downs on Sunday?in a run-heavy game with Justin Herbert, not great wide receivers, they're not a lot of speedy guys.I would try to find a way to get 21 on the field as much as possible, and mostly becausethey don't have many playmakers on this defense, Jake.And I do think that that's one of the things.A lot of people have made a big deal about the Miles Murphy lack of snaps, and I agree withthat.
17:35He should play more, at least on past rush downs.But the other element, it's not like these cornerbacks and safety.these are covering at a high level anyway.So why in the heck can't you find a way to get Mike Hilton on the field?At least he's making some plays and tackling at a high level.Yeah, it was interesting to hear him talk about that after Thursday's practiceand say that there have been conversations with Louana Rimo about it.This goes back to previous years when they were finding ways to keep him on the field
17:58when it didn't make sense to have a nickel corner on the field.They were matching 12 personnel and keeping Mike Hilton on the field at times.When they would go to certain three safety looks last year,they were having Mike Hilton playing more safety responsibilities.And for whatever reason this year, maybe because they have five safeties on the roster,or I don't know, that could have something to do with it.Mike Hilton isn't getting those opportunities as much,despite being probably, maybe not even probably,
18:22certainly the best player in the secondary for the Bengals this year.Oh, by far, yeah.Yeah, I don't think that's necessarily a debate,but it is interesting from a matchup perspective too.Do you want to keep him on the field and have him dealing with Ladd-McConkieand clear passing situations?I understand why that would potentially be a question mark.But, like, who else are you putting on the field?
18:43that spot. That's going to be better.If you had like legitimate options, like maybe if it's Daxill DJ Turner, right,and you want to put Dax in the slot there or whatever, DJ Turner in the slot there,whatever it is, maybe then you can start to think about it a little bit,but given the state of the secondary, the way those guys are playing.Yeah, I agree with you.Taking Mike Hilton off the field doesn't intuitively compute.He would be their second best edge rusher.
19:13Oh, no.I mean, you're only a little bit joking.I, it kind of, but like, he can blitz, man.Like, you know, like, that's what I think is interesting.And so part of this now and part of the must win is it's all right, mad scientist Lou,find the right elixir to get a win going into the buy.And part of getting a win is not banking on your offense to,score 30 points against the defense that hasn't given up 20 points this year in a game.
19:50And maybe they do.Maybe the offense still goes off, but that is something I'm certainly watching.So it isn't just the Joe and Jamar show.Plenty more to discuss, including health injuries to watch for that we'll be monitoring.We will do that coming up next.Time is our most precious commodity.So don't waste it scrolling through the same mind-numbing content for hours and hours.How can you spend your time wisely to a time?
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20:54It's easy to get started.That's Hillsdale.edu slash locked on to register.Hillsdale.edu slash lockdown.Before we dive into injuries, James,a few interesting themes and trends for this L.A. Chargers teamthat I wanted to mention here because you've talked about them being disciplinedand sticking with their run.And it's interesting because they're kind of going away from that a little bit,
21:18at least in recent weeks.Justin Herbert getting healthier. He's more of a part of their run game. Remember GregRoman, the offensive coordinator, former Baltimore offensive coordinator, someone certainlythe Luana Rumo is familiar with. And this Bengals coaching staff has seen a whole lot ofwhen he was the coordinator with the Ravens. And you're starting to see Justin Herbert on someof those quarterback design runs, especially last week. But what's interesting to me, James,is you look at their neutral pass rate and their pass rate over expected. The last four weeks,the charges are passing the ball at a top 10 frequency. In the year,
21:49NFL on neutral downs and have a pass rate over expected in the top 10 as well at 8th in theNFL. So they're going away from relying on their run game, perhaps a realization that the run game,the interior offensive line not necessarily suited to the kind of run game they want to use,although you're seeing more of Justin Herbert in that role with him getting a little bit healthierand him being a big guy who's obviously an athletic player at quarterback, difficult to bring down.Just some interesting trends there. A couple of other interesting trends. You look at rushing EPA perplay and rushing success rate.These are some metrics that the Bengals defense actually has been significantly better at in
22:25the last four weeks, ranking in the middle of the pack for opposing team rushing successrate lately in the last four weeks.And surprisingly, they've actually been decent, you know, bottom third of the pack, I guess,bottom middle of the pack in passing EPA numbers.The big issue for them has been explosive plays for the Bengals.And that is somewhere where in the last four weeks, the charges have been the best offin the NFL, a generating explosive.Justin Herbert has been lethal throwing the ball downfield,
22:54something that I think the Bengals secondary certainly will be aware ofand need to keep a ceiling over this week.Yeah, I think that's the natural progression when you can run the balllike they've been able to run the ball, right?And then you have a quarterback like Justin Herbert,who is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL?And health probably does have something to do with that.I think Ladd-McConkie, aka one of my draft crush is developing, certainly helped that.
23:24And so, yeah, I think it's a mixture.But look, it's going to be hard.This is a tough game.That's why last week it was going into that Ravens game.It's like, man, if you could just get this Ravens game, it'll take a little pressure off.And now all of the pressure is on.You have to get this one.It's all on the Bengals.
23:41There isn't really much pressure on the Chargers because they're not going to win their division.that they're just not catching the chiefs.And it would be nice for thembecause they're going into a hard stretchto get the win.But they don't need it.The Bengals need it.And that's the other element here
23:58is if you can get the win,you bring the chargers back to the packin that wild card raceright before they start this tough stretch of gamesthat they have.So it's going to be tough.And there's so much pressure on Lou.I think Lou's got to find a way to get
24:13Cam,Taylor Britt right? I do think it's noteworthy. He was asked on Wednesday and Thursday about talking tothe media and he said he just wants to play football. I think it's interesting. Does that mean,because there's going to be something to hear that and say, all right, well, that means he's dialed in.I love it locked in. Fine. Maybe that's the case. Maybe his confidence is so shaken he doesn't want totalk, which I'm not saying is the case. I'm just going over it. They need Cam Taylor Britt to play better,starting Sunday. It has to happen. You can't get beat like two weeks ago against the Raiders.Wasn't it a simple slant with Jacoby Myers? You get turned around? I mean, that just, it can't happen.
24:55He's not playing at that kind of level. So when you talk about the explosive plays and thedownfield stuff, it's like, oh, obviously they have to stop the run and they've been betteragainst the run, especially compared to earlier in the season. But these corners, the secondary,has to be so much better on Sunday.And a lot of this comes to the defensive line, in my opinion,and the defensive line, front seven, front six,whoever's on the field doing their jobs in the run game,not requiring the defense to spend extra resources there,
25:21something they had the luxury of doing more often when DJ Reader was on the teambecause he was able to do often the job of more than one guy on that defensive front,where this year you're seeing them having to sell out a little bit more at timesto deal with the run and leaving them more vulnerable in other ways.Against this team, you're going to want to keep two safeties back.And one of the things that perhaps the coaching staff needs to look atis how they're asking Gino Stone to cover more ground than he was asked to cover in Baltimore,the alignment of Sheldon Rankins to try to revitalize those two free agents that you got
25:51that we spent a lot of time talking about this week where those guys aren't playing up to the levelthat we've seen from them in their most recent seasons or throughout their career.And maybe there's a fit issue there in addition to a transition issue or a coaching issueor whatever it is or a player issue.the whole thing needs to be schematically sound, I think, this week to deal with the Chargers offense.And in my opinion, is ascending.But hasn't really faced a ton of tests this year.They did face the Chiefs.
26:17They did face the Cardinals.Now they get another good offense to face with the Cincinnati Bengals this year to challenge that defense in particular.But a huge factor, James, as we're looking ahead to this game, are these injuries that we're watching.And it's a bunch of key starters for the Bengals that have been limited this week.on the injury report.And first and foremost, T. Higgins limited again on Thursday.Trey Hendrickson, a DNP on Thursday,but the designation added for him on the injury report was not injury-related rest.
26:47So perhaps just a rest day there Thursday for Trey Hendrickson.Also questionable or sorry, also limited on the injury report, I should say,Logan Wilson, B.J. Hill, Orlando Brown gets upgraded to limited.Obviously, Logan Wilson and B.J. Hill playing is pretty important.Those guys have been around recently.but getting T. Higgins and Orlando Brown back, if that is possible this week,be a massive shot in the arm for Bengals offense.This relies so much as we recently discussed, like 10 minutes ago,
27:16on Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase.Yeah, it would be huge.And I think T's going to play.I do.It seems like it's trending in the right direction.Maybe I'm dead wrong.Maybe I'm reading it wrong.I've not talked to T.
27:30I have not been told that he's going to play.you just can kind of when you're here you can kind of get a read on it feels like he's going to playand by the way two nights ago before wednesday's practice i wouldn't have i wouldn't have said iti thought the other way i was leaning the other way but it feels like he knows the importanceand that's what i would tell him i would be like look team if we lose one you have the buy twothat's pretty much it anyway and if you win you still have the buyto hopefully get to 100% for the stretch run, and we're still in it.And it's kind of that cut and dry.
28:12Orlando, I think his injury, what's unique about Orlando's injury is we've never gottenfull clarity on what it is, right?It was the knee, then the calf, then the fibula, now it's knee and fibula is what it'slike officially listed as.I think he's got a shot.And that one's up in the air still.We'll see.But having Orlando back would be huge.
28:37T-back would be huge.T-back would be huge.I'd be shocked if he didn't. I think that that's maintenance day for Trey, for sure.you give him all the maintenance he needs because obviously you're going to need him on Sunday night to get after Justin Herbert. on the charger side of things.Big one. Did he not practice Thursday as well?I think they're on your time, so I don't think we've seen the practice report for the Chargers yet.No. I expect him to play from the sound of it. I think they've been maintenanceing him to.Yeah. I was eventually going to get there. But yes, I agree. I think that it's more of trying to get him to the game as healthy as he can be as he's going to continue to play through a groin issue.
29:25Joey Bosa's workload continues to increase as he works back from a hip injury. He was limited on Wednesday.Christian Fulton back on the practice field limited coming off a hamstring injury on Wednesday.And he has been, I think, their most reliable corner this year.So interesting to think about a couple of rookie corners that otherwise would be trying to deal with this Bengals receiving court,especially if T. Higgins gets back.And these are the questions that we don't have answers to right now on Thursday after recording,or as we're recording, because, well, we don't have the Thursday injury report for the charges yetor the Friday injury report for either team, obviously.
29:58but those are some big pieces for both teamsthat we'll have to watch the status of heading into this game.And I can't underline the importance enough here, James.Like we have with many games this year,it's another critical, critical game.And the reason that they remain criticalis that they remain in the race from a mathematical perspective.And as you said earlier at some point,
30:23if they're going to figure it outand be a team that's going to threaten the playoffs,they need to show it against a good teamand going into a buyat 5 and 6 instead of 4 and 7in the thick of that AFC wildcard pictureis the start to doing that.We'll be back on Sunday.
30:43Sunday night football coming up.James is ready to take a nap on that flight to L.A.That goes back in SOFI for the first time since the Super Bowl.A storyline that we haven't even talked about this week.I don't think it's necessarily important.important, but it's just didn't even come up.When I think about that, I just think about Jamar throwing his helmet on that final play.Hopefully not a site that we're treated to this weekend.
31:10That would be frustrating.Regardless, we'll be back with you after the game here on Lockdown Bengals.Until then, thanks for listening to this episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast, Hoode.And have a good one.