Move The Line - Best NFL Week 4 Bets: Sides, Totals & Team Props

Episode Date: September 30, 2026

Ryan Noonan and Connor Allen turn their attention to NFL Week 4 and break down the best betting opportunities across the slate. They discuss their favorite sides, totals, and team-based markets, highlighting where the numbers and matchups offer value before kickoff.Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package or try SharpStack free for 7 days: https://www.4for4.com/plansWatch Move The Line on YouTube: https://4for4.co/3OupraJJoin the Discord: http://discord.gg/4for4Follow the show: https://x.com/MoveTheLineNFLConnor: https://x.com/ConnorAllenNFL | Ryan: https://x.com/RyNoonan Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome the move of the line presented by Sharpstack. Ryan Noonan joined here as always by Connor Allen week four of the NFL season starting to figure out these teams a little bit. Connor how are we doing? Yeah, another interesting week. A lot of just kind of strange. We talked about on the Monday show, you know, one plus one, feel like I feel good about this and then they just ended up doing something entirely random.

But we are learning kind of more about the range of outcomes of some of these teams, kind of a little bit more about them specifically. and I think now we have a little bit of a sample size to focus on with these teams of this season instead of just holding on to our priors here. And I think we can kind of start to get away from those at this point. Yeah, it's such a tricky balance early in the season is, you know, what's, what's signal, what's noise, what's tied up into your early season schedule. Are we just wrong on this team?

Like, there's just so much then obviously injuries can come and impact that quite a bit early. I want to remind people, check out at Sharpstack 4.4.com slash plans. You get a freed seven-day trial of Sharpstack and you use promo code TD3 to get a first month for nine bucks. And that's going to include everything on the pick side, everything on the fantasy side. Get more information there on the show notes for sure. Sharpstack keeps getting better and better. I thought it was awesome last year and some of the new additions that have even popped in the last month or so are really cool. Definitely check that out.

Let us know if you have any specific questions. This deal is insane. I mean, $9 to get all the picks from Connor and I for the year for the last of the next month. And then obviously all the fantasy stuff too. And then obviously all the different things going on at Sharpstack. So, yeah, it's, I don't know what to make of some of these teams. Some teams that I thought were pretty good. Some teams I think that might still be pretty good that are 0 and 3.

Some teams that I think we thought were pretty bad that are 3 and 0. As the Raiders jump out is one of the bigger surprise 3&Os. The markets responded a little bit, but not too. much. They're still like 90 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. It's not like anyone thinks that this is a like actual contender all of a sudden. But the fact that they won a couple of games without Brock Bowers and now he's back and it was exactly who we thought coming into the year that Brock Powers is going to be because

he got absolutely fed. Vikings haven't been pretty. They're three and oh. The, you know, north is a little bit. Topsy-turvy. There's some opportunities I think there. The bills are not a surprise, but they've done it in the kind of, say, dominating fashion, but they've looked really good in doing so.

That's a little bit encouraging. And I think the Chiefs have surprised us a little bit. Like, you know, the Chiefs should never surprise us at this point. But they've also, have done it in kind of a convincing fashion. Now, again, last week aside, you know, you're playing Miami. Everyone should beat Miami in pretty convincing fashion. But I guess any of the, I mean, the Raiders would probably be the easy one to tee up there. But any thoughts on the 3-0 teams?

Yeah, I think Vikings or Raiders are both interesting because they both have a pretty heavy turnover margin. So plus four, plus five. but they're yards per play. They're negative 1.2 for Minnesota, negative 0.46 for the Raiders. So that's not a great sign usually. You know, we've been riding the Vikings,

I think it's some Survivor stuff. We talked about how maybe some of the Kyler, or not survivors, sorry, in Cirque Millions. We talked about how Kyler looked bad when he came in the first game, and then left early, and now came back, didn't look good again, and now lost Justin Jefferson,

at least for a little bit of time, it seems like, I don't know. We don't really know there. I am worried. Again, I think the defense, the case you brought up at the beginning of the year was like, all right, the defense is good enough to keep them where they're at and be a good team. And if the offense is anything, then they're a really good team. And I think we're unfortunately might be rounding into kind of like the bottom tier scenario

of like their offense isn't good enough to escalate them to like a 12 win team or anything like that. But they're still a solid team. So maybe selectively we can pick them. 11 and a half point favorites against Miami. I hate Miami. In some reason I'm worried. I don't know. Again, this is just like I had like that kind of like itch about the Bears game on Monday where I was like, you know, I kind of think that the Bears just might go out there and do some weird Ben Johnson shit.

And Case Keenham goes out there and just absolutely balls. So I don't know. This Vikings team is good. 17 to 3 still covers, Connor. 17 to 3 still covers. Yeah. That's true, honestly. is that Malik Willis against the Brian Flores defense might be just one of the biggest

mismatches of the week. So, you know, you don't have to pull my leg too hard to fade Miami. But, you know, like, oh, I get it. I get it. I mean, look, you know, you'd rather get the three and O and then you still have to answer these questions. So at least they've put those three in the bank. And they won the game last week without Justin Jefferson.

It sounds like day to day week wouldn't be surprising if he sits here. Also considering that it's Miami. me. It's just like, hey, I think we could probably get it done without you this week. Maybe just take another week. That would not surprise me at all. So I'm not going to keep up too hard. If we struggle maybe for a fifth team, I'll make a strong case for the Vikings, I guess. In that same exact scenario of it being like, I don't know, 20 to 3, 20 to 6. It could be kind of an ugly stinker, but I guess you'd rather have that thing. Ben Johnson makes you feel like, hey, it doesn't really matter where he's going on.

The bears are very much live there. I don't think that like the Lions are, they still have such an easy schedule. I don't think that anything's changed my thoughts on how easy that schedule is for them. Now again, the secondary issues continue to mount for them. But we kind of had those coming into the season too, right? We knew we're going to have Kirby Joseph or Brian Branch early for the Alliance too. And now even though they've lost the next two guys, you know, in the secondary, you know, in the safety room, they're still going to kind of find a way to get it done.

So the North is very interesting. think so I want to the other side. I mean, this path of the Chargers being a bad football team was there because just the schedule was also really, really, really, really tough. But again, having the Cardinals and the rate of the schedule earlier, like, hey, they're going to win two and oh, they're going to go two and oh, just kind of wait and see what happens. You'll be competitive.

Future markets collapse. They've dropped from like nine and a half to seven and a half, just to the under because seven and a half feels like a lot of wins for this football team. considering how they play, considering the schedule that's still ahead of them, it is a murderer's row, including this week with their seven-point dogs in Seattle. Texans are 0-1-3, something they like to do. They like to get off to slow starts. That's kind of the opposite of the chargers.

The Texan schedule softens up quite a bit. Now, they've been bad. And again, they look so bad. They've played so bad. And without Nico, I feel like it's just such a different version of that team. He's so important to them. But they've looked pretty bad. And the Buccaneers own three and now we've lost Baker.

We'll get to that a little bit here this week as well. But any thoughts on Chargers, Texans, Bucks, who are all like kind of basically favored to make the playoffs to start the year. I think the problem with Texans is they just can't run the ball still, right? So like they obviously signed David Montgomery. He's averaging a little over two yards per carry. Woody Marks looks better than him. It's just, but it's still been such a disaster.

The defense is obviously good, but they're just not getting any juice out of the offense. Again, kind of like the case you laid out preseason. And like it's just unfortunately kind of looking towards the bottom part of that like percentile outcome, you know. And Nico obviously hurts. But the opposite line just didn't, it didn't pan out so far, hasn't panned out so far to what we, we needed it to be. The bucks are really weird because their defense isn't played particularly well overall. Their offense isn't played particularly well overall. We thought coming to this season that they were the best team on paper.

I still stand that they were. At this point, though, it seems like the Saints have a little bit more juice. the Falcons with Michael Pennex. I mean, maybe that's the move. I mean, if he plays like he did against the Packers, maybe that was just a Packers thing, who have also looked terrible for the most part. The Packers, I mean, not an O and 3T,

but Packers and the Eagles. I mean, the Eagles were just trounced by the Bears. They barely beat the Titans. And then they, was the Commander's game? Like, it was just like, again, like just barely beat them. Like, and these are bad teams. Like, these are really bad. teams that they're beating. Now they go play the Eagles or the, yeah, the Rams at home.

I think I'm interested in laying the Rams. I don't know. I know the Rams are their own set of problems, but I think this Eagles team is just like in really, really bad shape with where they're at right now. I don't know why the vibes are always so bad there. The vibes always feel bad. I don't know what it is. I don't know if it's the coach quarterback combination. Yeah, it's just, and again, I know Philly's loud, Philly fans are loud and, you know, they just, They never have a quiet week, right? They either have a, you know, a demonstrative win and people want to kind of crown them as one of those teams or they just have one of these types of weeks where it just looks poor in front of a national audience. So I'm with you.

The Packers are bad. I mean, I know we were getting bookmarks and trolled and ready to be trolls on our Packers stuff. Yeah, when do we hit up Diggs? When do we hit up our guy? It's pretty quiet. I don't know. It's pretty quiet. I haven't heard of it.

My favorite part was just a disingenuous, like, recap of our handicap, which, was not part of our handicap at all, as if, like, we were down on the Packers because they lost Elgin Jenkins or something. I don't even know what that was, but pretty quiet on that end. And we'll see. We'll see if we start popping back up in the comment section. But look, is the case for that team being thin in a lot of important areas, I guess, come to roost already?

And now you lose Jaden Reed for the season with a neck injury. Hopefully, thankfully, he looks like he's okay. But this is a wide receiver room. it's never really been able to stay healthy to begin with, and now is immediately thin, cannot run the football, cannot protect their quarterback, who does a great job at,

like, buying time and avoiding sacks, but, like, that can only happen for so long. If you, you are just getting inundated with pressure against, like the Falcons who were just, like, Cam Thomas had,

like, a huge game. Camp Thomas could get on the field for the Cardinals for a couple of years. And he's, like, crushing against the Packers, who also have, like, poor cornerback play, you know, using a, you know, a rookie more than I think they wanted to.

It's just not a really good football team. This is kind of who I thought the Packers were. So I think we're correct there. And it's a team that I'm okay to continue in to short that the market wants to think they're going to bounce back because I know there's a lot of faith in the quarterbacking coach. And I think there should be. But at the same time, like, it can only get you so far when the rest of it's really,

really poor. Yeah. But now you get them. It's like a stopable force, movable objects game against the backup lead bucks. But, I mean, the Packers are laying three and a half. half on the road. I'm not taking that. Like I have no faith in the Packers where they're at right now.

I don't have very much faith in the buck, so that's the problem. And Jalen Daniels, like Jalen Daniels, I was listening to the ETR show and they were mentioning that he was eight, Dane Bruleers 18th ranked quarterback this year and was an undrafted free agent, was rejected to be underdrafted fear agent, wasn't underrafted free agent. And like, you know, it was like a kind of a preseason hero that like made it through there and was like, I think most people weren't even expecting him to be. make the roster, made the roster, and he's not playing. I did think that his pressure was funny today about, he's like, I'm going to be the

thermostat, not the thermometer or whatever. Like, I'm going to go in like, it's a good quote. It's a good quote. Yeah, it's, what's the, what was Slops quote last week? Pimpin A and Limpin or something like that. Limbony and Pimpin. On par with that, I would say. But I don't know.

I mean, again, underreft and free agent quarterbacks just don't really happen, right? Like, like, I don't know. In this day and age, you just don't really have. happen. So I have very low expectations for that game, maybe an under, but the defenses haven't played well either, so probably just to stay away. I will say, I respect Dan Ruggler's opinion. Greg Kosell, who I also really enjoy, OG, one of his favorite prospects in the entire draft. I thought he definitely should be drafted. That's great. So, you know, that's the case that some sharps probably grabbed because they were four and a half and it's moved down to three and a half.

I mean, look, you want to just close your eyes and do it. Like, I'm okay with that. Like, I think that that's like a real gross, like close, like close your eyes, just don't watch the game. And hope that the Packers keep playing terribly and that the Bucks figure something out defensively. Maybe, I mean, I bet they can run the ball on them. Like, I bet sure that the Bucky Irving and them will be able to run the ball. That's about all I got. That's the only edge that I got there.

It might be all that they have, too. Yeah, it's not particularly pretty. But, you know, again, there's the old, you know, there's the, you know, shout out to Bill Simmons. The, you know, the Ewing theory is an old Knicks thing where, like, you know, Patrick Ewing seemed to be the only guy in the Knicks for a number of years that could do anything. Got lost, went down for the season one year. The Knicks went on this, like, insane run. Like, the expectations just kind of dropped. You think, like, oh, how can this team survive without, you know, its best player?

And I guess, you know, Baker is definitely the most important to the quarterback position. She's never know. We've seen stranger things happen. So again, I don't want to get too far ahead of my skis and cape up for the bucks this week. But again, like, should the Packers be getting more than a field goal on the road against anybody? That's a tough case you mean to make right now, right? So it's one of those to your point. Close your eyes.

Take the points and just kind of see what happens. They're getting more than a field goal. So we'll see. Yeah, Broncos. I'm not really worried about the Broncos. Ravens, I think, have kind of solidified. their spot of being back where they probably belong, even though they had that weird Saints game.

And I think the Rams will still probably be, you know, one of the teams that we should be believing in, even though, again, uneven start for them, injuries, you know, questions and concerns there. But, yeah, let's jump into the week for games. Again, I don't know how often we're going to make the case to really want to jump into anything on Thursday, because, again, you have to solidify your whole card on a Thursday for circuit millions if you wanted to make that Thursday play.

Any interest here in this Steelers rounds, kind of what feels like a Thursday night classic stinker. With the Browns getting two and a half at home, 37.5. 38 point total. Yeah, the Browns have been playing a lot better. DeShan's been playing better. They kind of figure out his schemes, get the ball out of his hands immediately.

The defense has played better. They play a ton of man, just kind of like getting some pressure. Now, again, contextually, though, that came against Carolina, who was like without their entire starting offensive line. both their starting corners got injured. And it wasn't necessarily a great team to begin with. I think they were just playing well early.

And so there's still a reason, I think, to like Pittsburgh here. Obviously, Pittsburgh's coming off a huge win against CINC. Offense looked the best it has all year. Jalen Warren looked really good. They switched up with the office line and they were blocking really well. I wasn't expecting them to do anything on the ground. And Jalen Warren was ripping. I mean, he had like an 80-yard run called back.

You know, he could have had like 200 all-purpose yards, basically. And another touchdown, he tripped up. So it was interesting. Again, I think that like the shifting of the offensive line and making changes there is worth noting. If I had to take a line, it would or take a side of definitely be Pittsburgh. I do worry about, again, you're coming off of like kind of a high on a short week. And then playing a Cleveland team that's been playing better. Like, I don't know.

But I do want to keep fading Cleveland because I'm just, I'm not sold still. Same. I mean, I know we want to get Watson out of there. We have a pretty big position on Watson under in. season long numbers. It's like, oh, he won. He's coming back another week and look at the box square, 144 yards. Like, he could just keep playing at this point and be fine.

We still might be fine with these yardage totals. It's a disaster. He's averaging like, what, 4.8 yards per attempt at this point? Yeah, they're still dead last. EPA offensively. You know, they're bad in all the spots you'd want to be good at, like, red zone touchdown rate and early down EPA. like they're just a bottom two to three offense in any way that you cut it so i'm kind of with you

i think Pittsburgh it less than two and a half is definitely the the play i don't know that it's a jam in our card uh kind of a play though yeah we tend to agree like yeah it's like do we need to submit our card early because of that i would say probably not it's probably more of a fringe one for me if it was on sunday probably make it otherwise i don't know i think it's close yeah uh would you have an early start uh your real game the colts and commanders. Seems like it's still going to be Marcus Marriota. We're seeing, you know, practice reports of Jane Daniels.

I would expect that to be still too early. I think we still get Marriota here. But I don't know, this is a spot where this is a Colts team that, I don't know, like the Chiefs game was impressive. You know, obviously, you're doing what they did last week against the Texans is also, I just, I don't know, I'm worried about them. But again, the commanders are also, you know, coming off. of a high two, you know, getting that win last week.

Three and a half points spread here. Any thoughts on commanders and Colts? Yeah, I think the bull case of the Colts is that they've had like a really tough schedule so far, right? And they haven't played particularly well against them, but they've had a tough schedule. Did obviously beat the Texans. I wouldn't say it was like an awesome fashion. But I mean, Daniel Jones did look better early on especially than he has previously.

And I was playing against commanders team that I think is really, really, really bad. just like top to bottom, especially with Marriota, not good. They somehow won last week, but their defense was getting ripped. Like, it just took a lot of, like, a lot of fluky random plays to happen. Marieto didn't play all that well against Seattle. Now, the Colts defense also hasn't played well. So I'm not jumping at the three and a half here. I think three would maybe be interesting three and a half a bridge too far for me.

But do lean Indianapolis. I thought you were going to keep up for Indianapolis. here but the hook the hook's a little extra i mean it's not just like i need just hasn't played well enough like you know i don't know it's like i don't have enough confidence and that maybe that's why the line is the way it is and that maybe it should be closer to six if you saw them play with any type of pulse um you know the first couple weeks but uh i mean and yeah maybe they're good enough just to jam jonathan taylor 25 times and just run out of there with the touchdown plus win which i think is definitely possible.

So I don't know. Maybe it's kind of like a fringe one for me. I'm not sure. Yeah. The commanders like the Blitz, that Daniel Jones has been really bad against the Blitz so far this year. Like, what is the negative?

0.92 EPA for drawback against pressure, which is fourth worst in the league. So, I don't think you move all that well. Yeah, I don't think it seems like it's a little slower. Yeah. Yeah, I had to go back and like recalibrate his rushing number because his rushing number was popping as like a really strong over and like we're

going back and grabbing too much historical giants Daniel Jones data let's recalibrate this and it's like oh yeah no we're we are grabbing too much too much giants number but that feels like a that season is past Daniel Jones at this point yeah i i mean you saw it take like kirk cousins like a full year plus to like recover and he looked like i mean the worst quarterback in the league coming back from his Achilles injury. And then now it looks okay, you know, but again, we're like two years past that. So yeah.

I think the time should be relegated if there's a relegation process. They are on the road in Baltimore. It's 11.5. It's a huge number. And, you know, the Ravens made me nervous because we have these games like we have with the Saints. There's like, there's one of these every year in the last like decade. And maybe it was already the Saints one.

But just that the Ravens play with their food and don't really curb top a team that they should dominate. But man, the K-Word stuff is tough to watch, man. I'm worried about that here. Any thoughts on Derek Henry's first game against his former team? Yeah, there's a bunch of injuries on the offensive line for the Ravens, though.

That's kind of the problem. It's like their interior offensive line is just like ripped. And so that's not good. Like if you gave me a full strength, Ravens' offensive line, I would feel really good about the Ravens here. I still think that's the side, but I'm not as excited as I'm not as I'm.

should be, I think. Yeah. And again, with the strength of where the Titans' defense lies is Jeffrey Simmons in the middle of that defense. The defensive line is actually okay, you know, John Franklin Myers.

There's some other players there. So yeah, it's Baltimore or nothing without a doubt, but it's not like the automatic that like maybe I think we agreed on the chiefs last week. And it's a huge number. It's like just blindly fading Miami. I would like to almost blindly fade the Titans.

But, you know, we can circle back to it. I mean and maybe that doesn't even matter like maybe maybe Declan doyle just like all right well we're just going to pass the ball instead and then like zay flowers plays a little bit more he wasn't even expected to play last week still played 20 snaps and played really well so i would expect him to play i don't know double that maybe one and a half times that and again like i bet that they get passed their way to 21 24 points here against the titans and that's plenty of fine um i'm just worried about

maybe some of the derrick henry stuff but certainly not worried about them stopping kim ward who's just terrible like it just might it just might be over i don't know like it's it feels over it feels over it's not it's not good um sorry thanks fans like it's i mean his tape is like worse than j j mccarthy's it feels like it that that's if it's genuinely like j j had like the half against chicago right like yeah and played okay against dallas um for a little bit and yeah it's there hasn't been a lot of that for for cam um yeah new office coordinator all that but again and it's supposed quarterback whisperer we go out and get you a ton of you know weapons and uh yeah feels feels over um pats and bills you know speaking of not man speaking of over we've invoked

uh Zach Taylor uh I mean uh the uh gosh it's it's it's bad it's really bad um I it's bills for me I think the bill should be a play here. It's just that, it's just that bad. Sorry. Look, they lost by 30 for the Jaguars. It wasn't that close. It wasn't even kind of that close. And I don't really think the Jags are very good in particular.

But like, I'm not really worried long term about Drake May, but it's just been sloppy. A bunch of, there's too many turnovers, too careless, another bad end zone interception here. You know, that you, what it could look like with AJ Brown, is gone, but then you also take booty out of that lineup. Romeo Dobbs isn't really clicking. You were leaning on a whole lot of Mac Hollins to get it done. I just ain't it. He's been okay, but that's just not the recipe for anything.

The offensive line has had some injuries, had some injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They're not stopping the run. They can't get both their top two pass rushers are out. They're just, they're dealing with a lot of injuries, and Drake May has not been good enough to overcome many of it. Yeah, the, yeah, of line injuries too.

And, and Buffalo, like, was, every time you looked was just shooting themselves in the foot against the chargers and still covered. Like, they were just like, you know, fumble, James Cook fumble, Donald Kincade fumble, like, you know, it was just like one thing after another that they were just doing to cause issues. I think they buffed a punt, maybe one point. It was, it was crazy. And so, and then they still end up covering, you know, maybe that's just the chargers being

bad. But I think it just shows, like, the potency of this. Bill's team of like, all right, down by 10, they can still come back and win. And like, again, even if nothing gets lucky early on, I think Buffalo is just like in a good, a good spot here. So yeah, I like seven or six and a half here at home against the, the Pats. They just looked, it looked really bad. It's not been good at all.

And I don't know if they haven't answered like fix that right away. They have the worst run stuff rate in the league. And the bills have the, they've allowed the lowest. It's just such a bad combination of like, you know, basically it's going to equate to a ton of yards before contact for James Cook to just eat. Knowing this path here is through explosives because they still have, like they still lead the league and completion percentage over expectation. They still hit explosives at a pretty decent clip. And the bills have given up explosives at a pretty high clip. But like what are you, you're asking me to like to bank on Kyle Williams and Mack Hollins winning deep?

multiple times in the same game and that's just a very thin path to uh to them getting it done like there's just again i don't think new england's like dead dead it's just there's a lot of injuries and there's more than i think you know people are thinking that just every week a starter or two are going down and they're not coming back yet so now we have this collection of three weeks that draymond jones looks nice for the first game um harold landry was already out and then he gets hurt in that game like so we're we're rolling out elijah ponder and gabe Biacas for like 80% of the snaps at edge. That just isn't going to get it done against a Bill's team that doesn't allow a ton of pressure.

Josh doesn't take a lot of sacks. Just he's going to be operating from a pretty clean pocket. And we can't stop the run. It just even if Drake plays well, I just have a hard time seeing the paths slow down this current buzzsaw offensively. Yep, agreed. Hate it, but that's where we're at. I don't know what we're getting a quarterback for Chicago, but they are. Small home favorites here against Gino Smith and the Jets,

which showed a pulse a little bit last week against the lines. Any thoughts on this one? 42 and a half seems really low for the total. I know the Bears defense looked awesome, but it's the same thing as last year. Like they just live and die by turnovers. Like Sequin was running for like 20 yards of rip in the first half. Jalen Hertz was ripping him downfield.

And then they just came up with a couple key turnovers. They got a lot of offensively. They got a ton of really lucky, like, defensive holding calls and like random shit there. It was like they got bailed out like so many times. But they also looked good. They also looked competent. Ben Johnson very clearly decided like,

hey, I'm going to go out and show people that I can still win with a nobody. And it came out passing. You know, it was not what we expected at all. And I mean, I don't think the judge defense is all that good. I think they could run the ball here.

They could probably pass the ball just fine. Keenham looked good enough. And then the Bears defense, I still don't think it's very good. They're just, they had one good week against the Philly team that we've seen not play well against also bad defenses. And then, you know, now here, and they got kind of lucky. So a couple turnovers. So I think the over here at 42 and a half is a pretty good look.

Probably the best call to. Yeah. We're once again, now we're, once again, I have the bears of the highest turnover rate in the league on defense. But again, they've allowed the highest explosive pass rate. Their 25th at past D.DVA way. they've allowed a they have the worst pass rush in the league according to PFF's past rushing metrics

it's just a bad below average defense is also dealing with injuries but again turnovers mask all that but they're also really good on third down they're like fourth and third down conversion rate like all right just well-timed and you have scheme stuff like that coaching deserves some credit for that with Dennis Allen

but at the same time like everything else is bad bad bad bad bad and just happen to turn the ball turn them over a bunch and get off the field on third downs like that feels like a little bit of house of cards and i do think like the jet's offense has got enough power power to like punch back a little bit so maybe it's not a side but maybe the total is probably the best play yeah like i i mean it might be three for chicago i think that's what we're seeing right now yeah circus is a three circus minus three i don't know if i really want to lay that to be honest but i think that's like probably my lean too yeah all right now jacksville

Cincinnati. We were at two, two and a half or three. Where's, uh, Circa at currently? And then you know, we're still as we record waiting for the official circle lines for this. Two and a half for Circa. Okay. I like, uh, I like the Bengals. Bengals are team. I like, I think you probably guessed that were like the Bengals. I also don't like Jacksonville. Um, you know, Jacksonville's fine. Like, they're fine. I just don't think that they're, I think they're like a better version of the Bears defense that's really been able to like propel themselves with like, well-time turnovers. but I believe in a little bit what the Bengals have going on here.

What are your thoughts? Yeah, I worry a little bit about the last game. Still lean since he, but I mean, that was like, I mean, the Bengals kind of revitalized the Steelers offense. And maybe it was the changes of the Steelers, man. You know, we don't know whether is the chicken or the egg here of like what happened kind of essentially.

But there was a lot of guys open. You know, there was a lot of issues in the Bengals defense that we thought that they got better. better. I still think they are better. But we've also seen this Jacksonville offense be pretty electric from time to time, right? I mean, that's why we're the totals, 51 and a half here, right? So there's definitely expecting a lot of pushing pull between these two offenses here. Lean CINC-CENC, but it's, I don't know. Is this one of your top ones of the week? Is this, like, you know? No, I think there's an injury. Injury reports off here. There's injury reports.

So last game, the Bengals lost, Brian Cook, who I think has been a really nice addition for them is like an anchoring free safety in the back half. He went down early in this game. And they have like some redundancy. They give like, you know, their top three safeties. Two of them are very much like in the box strong safeties with Kyle Dugger. Dugger comes in kind of a mess. Like he, you know, produces from like an IDP standpoint, but not necessarily like a guy that you want in the back half. And they also lost their slot corner. So met forced a little bit of like Dax Hill to bounce back and forth between the slot and the outside. So you had to put more of an inexperienced guy.

in the corner. So I don't think either, well, I think the slot injuries that he's on IR, so that's an issue. But if Brian Cook is back, I feel better about Cincinnati. If Brian Cook's out, then I want nothing to do with Cincinnati. So I want to see with the practice reports. We're recording on a Wednesday. We don't have the initial practice report there. But I would definitely back off my Sinty stuff because I think that they'd have trouble defensively against Jacksonville, who I think is just, I think Liam Combs good enough to scheme up wins against this defense. I think they could just go really. really, really pass heavy and get it done.

Yeah. So that would be my concern. So it's a wait and see. So I lean, I lean Sinti for sure, but I think we need to see injury report stuff. Yep. I like that.

Makes sense. The Texas teams, I thought maybe could have been a Super Bowl preview with the Cowboys and Texans here. Texans small favorites at home. Many thoughts on Dallas and Houston? Kind of stay away from me to be honest. This isn't one of my favorites.

Where are you at? Yeah, because I want to buy in the Texans bouncing back. just as a tough spot. I also want to be kind of buying Dallas bouncing back in a way too. Like I feel like they're better than what they've shown the first couple of weeks. And it was kind of a messy, you know, game management thing at the end of that last game. But I kind of with you to stay away.

I think both these teams, the range of outcomes here feels pretty vast. Like I don't have a strong take. So, um, if Nico comes back, maybe the Texans of the right side. I don't know. Yeah. That's true. Um, it's not like they have awful like secondary receivers. like that hey it's still i mean obviously it'd be better if higgins was still healthy but like

i don't know it's just they're just surprising how bad how bad they've continued to to be you can't run the football can't protect again doesn't matter how good your defense is even though your defense is legit um i mean willerson he's playing awesome it doesn't it doesn't matter he can't you can't block you know he doesn't get to play left tackle so right um all right a arizona we're like a road favorite, like pick them against the Giants. Here we are. It's a team with, you know, three and a half, four and a half win total in the preseason. What do you think about Arizona here?

I mean, this is ridiculous. So there's the two worst yards per play in the league. 4.66 for Arizona, 4.61 for the Giants. I am not backing the Cardinals. I think that even though James Winston has looked awful, I mean, just like noodle arm, is Winston. Like, he's cooked. I think his, like, his arm is just shot.

I still think the Giants are probably the right side, which is crazy to say. I kind of think at home, defense can get it done here against the Cardinals who've, you know, not been all that good and are not a good team. And so I don't know. I mean, I don't know how the Giants get it done.

I think that they find a way, though. It's like, again, very much more of a gut feel than actual analysis here. But it just seems wrong that the Cardinals are road favorites here against the Giants, even with James Winston. It does. It's almost a stay away where I think you're probably right. I think just the Giants are probably the right side system-wise.

It's like, hey, we should probably not be, should probably take some points at home against the bad football team. This is really, they're both pretty bad football teams. Like the Giants defense has not been good either. Like they're dead last in the rush EPA. Jeremiah Love looked like a little bit fresh, a little bit bouncy. turns out just good at the game. Arizona just dinking and Duncan offensively.

Like they have the lowest explosive play rate. They just, they drop for a team that, like, throws so frequently. They're just like, Trammy bride, just peppering, you know, Michael Wilson, these just little, you know,

slants and hitches all week last week. Yeah, they're just, it's a, it's a bad, it's a bad game. Underfields of interest, but like, it also just bad defenses. Like, you just have, some some breakaway plays and just no thank you uh sounds like you're in on the ramps rams are on the road in philly um philly obviously back short week i'm kind of with you partially because like

again you know philly fans no offense you guys have like some serious like main character syndrome stuff going on like you're the most important thing in the room this the fans just turn can turn on their team in a pretty big way when things go poorly early so this is a spot where we're like, this can start to spiral a little bit. And it's like, you guys are always pretty good. You like, load your team constantly, even though you're like, I don't know, 11 and 5 or 11 and 6 now, whatever. Yeah, so it's just, you know, three point dogs at home against the Rams.

Obviously, we would like puka here, but I'm not sure we're going to get it. Yeah, don't think we're going to get puka. Jalen Watson is doubtful of the corner. Ferguson, Terrence Ferguson, probably going to miss. So there's definitely a lot of guys missing there, but they still have DeVante Adams. Canada Mubfield has played pretty well. They still have Kyrin and Corum to like kind of jam the run here. I think there's plenty to get it done here against the Philly team that we talked about has just like been scraping by or losing in a bad way to other teams who they should not be.

And so I'm I'm really worried about this offense in general. Like it just doesn't look good. The defensive coordinator scheme changes hasn't worked. Sequin had a bunch of running yards in the first half like rushing lanes. Second half just didn't have much at all. Like it just was it feels off, something's wrong. Again, we say this basically every year, midseason at one point or another with the Eagles. So I think the Rams bounce back here in a big way and just like can score more than the Eagles at this point are able to produce, basically. The Eagles are dead last and explosive run rate. They are second to last in yards before contact.

Success rates, you know, they're basically bottom five. It's success rate. They have one of the highest three in out rates. they're giving them a ton of pressure. Like there's just a lot of bad, like I'll say stable because we're three weeks in, but a lot of like, I think really strong leading indicators

as to why we are where we are with the Eagles and kind of with you on the Rams here. So obviously we'll love to get a full strength Rams or just don't have that team, but that's okay. There's still first explosive pass rate without Puka. Like they're still finding ways to get it done.

So yeah, I like the Rams there too. We tease the battle of the base, the Green Bay, Tampa Bay. We're just staying away. I mean, we'll see how the list shakes out. I might just be willing to get frisky and just back Jalen Daniels. It's kind of fun. Like, you know, he's back the random dog. He's either going to be, I mean, my expectations are super low, right?

Like, I just, I couldn't fathom laying three and a half with Green Bay on the road against anyone. And so I think Tampa Bay might be the right side. Probably not, though. I don't know. It's like I just don't have that many room. Probably not. We only have to pick five, but we do have to pick five. So he gets to a spot where we're dancing around a lot of teams. Yeah.

We'll put them on the long list as we typically do. And then we can, you know, we can break it down. I would, it's definitely Tampa Bay or nothing for me. But I'm not sure that I'm, I'm with you. I'm like, I'm in the same spot. Okay. I think it's fine. We'll see.

All right. Minnesota, Miami. You're not interested in laying anything with, with Minnesota. We, you know, again. Well, it's down to 10, it looks like at Circa. 10 flat, I'm interested. More.

It's getting the range of a lot. That's a lot of points. The problem is that Miami is just playing so slow. Like they're playing so slow. They're like just burning clock. We talked about a little bit on Monday, but like it's like they were playing to cover at the end of the game. Like it was infuriating.

It was like they burned. They had like an eight minute drive that went like 30 yards. Like and, and then they just pun it. You know what I mean? Like it's, then Kansas City ran 48 plays and like that you just can't rack up that many points when you're playing against a team that just burns clock.

So that's my only problem with them is that it's like hard to beat them by so much sometimes. But it's once you get a lead like it's impossible for them to come back. Like they just have no ability to do that because they're throwing to no one. I mean, I don't think Caleb Douglas is going to play. I didn't practice again today. So again, you're looking at Malik Washington, Chris Bell. you don't have Devon A. Chan.

Everyone's talking about Ali Gordon versus Shalin Wright. It doesn't matter. He's guys going to run like eight times for 23 yards. It doesn't matter. Devon A. Chan was barely relevant with like, end this offense. So, it's true.

Yeah. Like, again, I've said it every week. This is legitimately one of the last, the worst teams we've seen in the last few years. If not the last 15 years. This is a bottom five team in the last 15 years. I mean, I get these matchup columns, there's a lot of red on the screen here. With both these, you know, when Minnesota has the ball is a lot of red,

because Miami's defense is also pretty poor. The problem is there's a lot of green on the Minnesota defensive side, matched up against a lot of red on the Miami offensive side. So 10, I guess this is a wait and see, but 10, I think I'd, you know, not stand up and pound the table for it, but it's like, let's think through this. Like, you know, they have to score 14, 17 points to beat us. in that spot. Like, you know, I feel pretty good about Minnesota.

So again, there's going to be a time here where we need to back off Minnesota a little bit. I'm just not sure it's there yet. It's probably tied to some of the Justin Jefferson stuff, which I think probably is appropriate. All right, see if the Raiders can keep it going. They're home against Kansas City. They are home dogs, though, four and a half points or so in the division. Seems like a lot. It's kind of a matter of how much do you believe in what we've seen from the Raiders?

Or in the Chiefs, anything, any leans here? I think you're muted. The Raiders here at the top, I mean, we mentioned living on turnover margin, plus five turnover margin, negative yards per play differential. Kansas City, though, positive play differential.

They've been playing really well for the most part. The little disappointed I didn't put Miami into the dirt faster. I guess that's my only, I don't know, I guess, like, complaint here. I think Kansas City minus four and five, four and a half is okay. I think that's fine. It's not like, again, not running to do it, but I think I would lean that way.

Yeah, some of the Raiders' offensive stuff is a little bit noisy because we didn't have Brock Bowers. Getting Brock Bowers is definitely helpful. But I'm kind of with you. Like, I kind of believe in what the chiefs have going on here. You're going to give me spags against Kirk. And again, shout out to Kirk. He's played really well. Mahomes played increasingly better.

And again, Miami will do that to you. so we'll see. I'm willing to find out and, you know, put our money where our mouth is on that and maybe chiefs on the shortlist for sure. Chargers, it's hard to get off the mat, I think, here in Seattle. Seattle just looking very, very legit. Looks like we're probably at seven, maybe seven and a half even. What are your thoughts on Seattle? Seven could be interesting.

Could be worth buying like a Seattle bounce back there. Again, it just felt like pretty unlucky and just like a bunch of like fluky plays. led to the commandant's winning. Don't really think that that's something that we need to, like, worry about too much. Their defense still held Marriota to a pretty low yards per play. And I think the Chargers here, again,

just like Hampton doesn't look right. Like, it's not clicking for him. Keaton Mitchell might start seeing more time. The Conkey's playing more, I guess, and, like, looking a little bit better, but he still doesn't look anywhere near full strength. So, I don't know. I think Seattle might be an interesting side here.

I'm worried the Chargers are going to randomly start like playing good i just don't know when it's going to happen um it's it feels like it's going to happen start happening at some point i just don't know when it is yeah probably not here feels like on the road in seattle feels like not the spot not the place to do it yeah exactly yeah yeah you're probably you're probably right i think in seattle there too denver san francisco is a very interesting one uh the niners around you know three points 46 and a half rock party has been awesome um it's good to see denver kind of bounce back a little bit get that one's a nice went at home in an island spot against a good Rams team, kind of solidifying who I thought

the Broncos were coming into the season. This one's really tough for me. I think these teams are both pretty legit. Do you have any lean here? Kind of like the Broncos. Nineers injuries are just piling up. Bosa. Yeah, Bosa, Trent Williams is like a probably going to play, but Stinger, Mike Evans, rib injury. Like there's other self, like other defensive linemen, I think are going to be out for the Niners too. So like the substation is just zapping them one by one. You know, it's just And again, this is always the Niners problem. This is what we've said the last couple years, full strength, awesome team.

But then you start getting cluster injuries or a couple holes here and there and it just doesn't look the same and they can't put it together. Whereas the Broncos, I think, you know, I haven't been perfect, but I think it could be interesting here at plus two and a half. I'd be loved to get a plus three, but I don't think we're going to get that. Okay. Yeah, it was three a little bit yesterday. It's two and a half's now.

So here's part of why I like Denver to oversimplify the handicap. I mean, neither of these quarterbacks take sacks. But like, Denver has a pass rush. What's going on in San Francisco right now without Nick Bosa? And as you mentioned, like, the number of like defensive linemen and edge rushers that are on my ledger for projections for the Niners is huge because you just got all these guys that are inactive. Like, who's this guy?

This guy's like getting 30% of snaps all of a sudden. Like there's just a lot of guys all of a sudden. And none of them really have a lot of pass rush shoes. So I just think you're going to get Bonnet. working from a clean pocket here. And I think he's good enough to take advantage of that. So I would lean Denver here. I think San Francisco is, again, if they can just slow down the mounting injuries,

is legit. But I agree. You know, so is Denver. All right. Speaking of mounting injuries, Carolina, losing both perimeter corners. It's just tough, tough, tough scene. Speaking of, like, new names that I have to give projections to, guys can sign with the practice squad and come up

and we're going to have to play meaningful snaps. Like they have like this Will Lee, this kid they like I thought is an interesting little slot corner who won that slot job. Like I only have to play perimeter. I don't know if they have to put them on the outside. And against Detroit, tough, tough, tough sell.

In the slot against Detroit is a tough sell, considering how Amon Ra wins. Again, against the team that also has a ton of injuries in their secondary, Detroit's at two. The total is pretty inflated here, though, around 50 and a half. And any thoughts on, Carolina basically getting a field goal a little bit more at home.

I think I like Detroit here. This is, again, like we talked about the defensive injuries for both sides here. The problem is that Carolina is like more offensive line injuries now, right? So like we already had the tackles out. Now you have Damien Lewis doubtful. So like now you're talking about the interior too. Like there's only so much that Bryce Young can do and this offense can do. You have Jalen Coker potentially banged up again.

He was injured coming into the week. I didn't re-injured again. Ted McMillan did nothing. I mean, my God, what a useless sack. I mean, just was... Like, a million guys. He got, like, four targets. Like, he was one of, like, eight guys that got three or four targets.

Like, you got Ted McMillan. Like, he should leave the team in targets. It was, I mean, why throw it to Tet when you have Bryce and Tremaine? You know, I mean, that's true. I mean, tilting for sure. And, yeah, like, right when I buy into Carolina, I'm like, oh, this could be a fun offense. And then they just shit the bad. I think they're going to be fine here, to be honest.

I think their office will be fine, but the offensive line issues are going to catch up to him here a little bit. And then Detroit is just going to score like 35 on it. I mean, this is like, so Carolina has to just score a ton. So three and a half, you know, again, I get it. It's on the road, but Carolina is just going to have to score a ton of points. Yeah, I think so too. It's like, I already looked and it's, you know, the price where you think it is.

I'm not a big anytime touchdown guy, but like, sorry, Jamir Gibbs is going to score a touchdown this game, just so you know. It's like, you know, minus 200. Yeah, minus 270 or something crazy. Oh, yeah. Just, you know, probably a nice little, you know, free parlay leg if you want. He's scoring a touchdown here for sure because I agree. This Detroit, Detroit scores a ton here.

Monday night, Atlanta, New Orleans. Again, Atlanta obviously showed a pulse. Again, this is really when the early season stuff is hard because it was a change of quarterback that I think was noteworthy, but also against the team that I am really, really down on in Green Bay. so I don't want to, you know, conflate the two things because I think it's kind of double counting. But, you know, in New Orleans, I thought it should have, they caught us a little bit last week. I thought that one was a really nice spot where we were getting a nice number on the Saints there.

And it couldn't grow. They're up 10. They're up like 10 and just like blew it. It was like, I mean, talk about just like giving the game away. It was like, ever, they were trying to fumble interception. They actually got a bunch of calls called back for them that were like, through a pick, you know, whatever. It's like, oh, it was actually pass your first.

Then it was like kept coming back, kept giving them more chances, and they just couldn't pull it together. That being said, I think it could be an interesting spot for New Orleans. I think Norlands minus two and a half is not a bad look. Falcons, defense, tons of problems. The offense, Michael Penning's the first like quarter-ish looked so bad. Like he was just looked awful. Like I was texting some people and I'm like, this is, this might not be good. And then he just comes out and starts ripping it.

And Drake London's, you know, mossing guys are wide open. And again, I think like what you're saying, I think that it might have been more of a function of Green Bay than of the Falcons. So I don't know. I don't love New Orleans defense either, but I do think that they're probably the right side here. Again, and you're buying them off of losing to the Raiders

and getting ripped there at the end. But it was, again, a lot of kind of fluky turnover, weird plays there at the end. Yeah, I like the Saints here. I like Saints in this spot, especially if it holds a two and a half. We get an unofficial two and a half there. So there's a liens for me. but Baltimore are the best survivor?

What do you think? Minnesota is going to be the highest picked. Minnesota is going to be like 50 something percent picked in Survivor, apparently. I would expect those two. Baltimore, Minnesota basically is 10 point. Well, the reason Minnesota is going to be picked too is they have just like such little future value, right? They're just never going to like want to pick them again.

So I don't know. I think that's probably my pick. But yeah, Baltimore, I think makes sense too. Yeah, Baltimore, you'll, you can have some other spots, obviously. It looks like the best future value I would have on Minnesota would be later in the season. Atlanta, Carolina, Carolina commanders, but those are all week 12, 13, 16. But even those don't sound thrilling. So I think that's, I think you make a good point.

Like Miami is a lot cleaner than, you know, than any of those other ones are. So, but also who plays Survivor? What are you guys doing? Is anyone alive still in Survivor? It's crazy. No, dude. it's crazy the splash pool out of like the 22,000, there's like 3,000 left after three weeks. It's crazy.

And they have six double pick weeks from weeks 12 to 18. So no one's going to survive. Like I don't even think they're going to make it like week 15 or 16 like at this point. Yeah. No, you make a good point. Minnesota is probably the right play. Yeah, that's nuts. All right, we'll have some good discussion this week.

We didn't have a lot of solidify like dominant yeses. No. We'll have to figure out later. we'll see how the injury reports take out. I think they're going to think it's going to matter. So, all right, anything else for the folks? No, check out Sharpstack. We'll have more prop bets coming out this week.

A bunch of tackles. It'll be good. It'll be a good week. Great week to be great. More information to be a show notes. Again, move the line where we listen to podcasts. Move the line on YouTube as well. Come back 3 p.m. Eastern on Friday for Prop Drop with Slop.

And again, Connor and I do a little Monday show as well. So we want a little Monday night football. We go through Sharp, we'll look at some of that stuff there too so make sure you're subscribing uh wherever you like to listen to podcast so for connor and ryan we'll see all next time thanks everybody