Move The Line - Expert NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bets! | Top Picks, Predictions & Odds

Episode Date: September 27, 2024

Get ready for Week 4 with our top prop bet picks! Join us as we break down the best NFL prop bets for opening week, analyzing player performances, key matchups, and hidden opportunities to maximize yo...ur winnings. Whether you're betting on touchdowns, yardage, or game-changing plays, we've got the insights you need to make the smartest bets. Subscribe now and start the season with a winning edge! Earn $50 in Pick6 Credits and a month of NFL+ Premium when you play $5+ on your first ever entry on Pick6 👉🏼https://shorturl.at/xY53r Subscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plans Sign-up on FanDuel Today 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/go/fanduel Follow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4football  Follow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼    / 4for4bets  Follow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼    / movethelinenfl   Follow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼    / connorallennfl  Follow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼    / rynoonan  Follow John on Twitter 👉🏼    / sloprules   Visit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼    / discord  Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3OupraJ 4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0Ea NFL Betting Odds & Predictions 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3nsW9QU 

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 hello and welcome to move the line presented by draft king sportsbook it's a prop drop show right here to connor allen john hyslop ready to talk props what's going on fellas connor what's up buddy uh not much at my last wedding of the year this weekend uh coming up so kind of thankful to be done love weddings though actually super fun actually. Super fun, but I'm exhausted. I need some time to just drink with my friends and sit at home and just not be hung over every Sunday, which might still happen. You're going to drink with your friends but not be hung over on Sundays? Maybe less, slightly less. Don't you drink with your friends at weddings yeah too that's the point
Starting point is 00:00:46 like that's well it's different friends like it's a lot of my wife's friends weddings which are still my friends but like it's like you know different friends that i don't see all the time so it's just all different you know yeah no i know you're saying you need like you're like drinking and watching games friends yeah exactly yeah exactly i went to a wedding last weekend up in, uh, up in Wisconsin in a barn. Connor went to a wedding at like the Waldorf, I believe. Yeah. The Waldorf, uh, in the city. And it was beautiful.
Starting point is 00:01:13 Um, I'm sure a little bit different vibes, but your food is probably better than mine. You said you had like some nice barbecue. Like, yeah, it's good. Good. Great wedding to just kick ass. Kick ass wedding. It's good. We get different, you We get different friend groups.
Starting point is 00:01:27 I'm with Patrick. I'm at the age now where I go to more divorce parties than – Yeah. Nobody gets married now, dude. Yeah. No, I do not have any – My friends that aren't married are not getting married. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:01:41 And the ones that – Yeah. There's divorce parties uh more so than anything else so yeah it's it's just the scene of life connor's still young we discovered last week released some of our subscribers some of our listeners discovered last week in a shocking fashion connor's still not 30 which very much rattled uh our subscriber base to the core easy yeah yeah i'm not gonna complain about being old i feel old but i mean i know relative to uh, our subscriber base to the core. Easy. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not going to complain about being old.
Starting point is 00:02:07 I feel old, but I mean, I know relative to you guys, like, you know, a couple of relics that are joining me each week on the show. Um, the facts. All right.
Starting point is 00:02:18 One of my folks live here, 3 PM Eastern, every Friday on the four, four bets, YouTube channel. We are here to give out our favorite player props. We're here to take your questions. so if you're hanging out with us now live on youtube jump in the chat or on twitter let us know what your favorite prop of the week
Starting point is 00:02:30 is any thoughts on a play anything like that you want to ask us let us know uh again joining live on youtube is the best chance to get the same number and the price on these props they move quick if you prefer the podcast version you can find move the line wherever you listen to podcasts should be usually Friday evenings, not too long after we get done here. It gets out pretty quickly, but thumbs up, subscribe, wherever you listen.
Starting point is 00:02:50 Those things go a long way in helping us continue to do things we're doing here at 4 for 4. You can find Slop on Twitter, at Slop Rules. Lots of good stuff going on at Slop. You can find his YouTube channel. He's got lots of great content.
Starting point is 00:03:00 Support Slop. He supports us. We want to take care of him as well. Again, if you like more like sides and total stuff, game previews, a little bit more, like, hand in the dirt stuff, Connor, myself, and a guest live, 3.30 Eastern on Wednesdays. We had our friend Ben Solak on this week.
Starting point is 00:03:17 Ben Solak is one of my favorite people to talk football with. Obviously a great show if you want to get more, like, insight on our thoughts on some games. Sides and totals, the wednesday show is for you if you want all the official place all the things that we do at four for four if you still like grinding dfs you want high stakes articles rankings tools projections everything that we do at four for four you can get with the betting subscription we have a partner and rebet right now you can get the rest of the year for 10 bucks. I mean, that's it. There's like, there's no like funny loopholes. Download Rebet, use promo code 444BET. There's
Starting point is 00:03:53 links all over the place to be links to the show notes. Reach out to us directly. Get the rest of the year for 444 for 10 bucks. A pretty insane deal at this point in the year. Now that we're already a couple of weeks in, we want to discount that for you is the best deal you're going to find out there. And again, rebats got prop builder as well. What are they? It's a different name,
Starting point is 00:04:10 right? Connor is not called prop builder, but it's the same premise. Yeah. They call it prop city. So it's, it's the same thing. So anyone familiar with that stuff,
Starting point is 00:04:20 they have all like basic props for everything. They're reasonable limits. I think $250 like to $500 pops. So, I mean, which is pretty solid considering most books are not allowing anywhere near that. Yeah, need another out. Download Rebat.
Starting point is 00:04:36 Again, use promo code 444BET and take advantage of that. Within like 48 hours or so, you'll get a promo code and an email explaining how to access your four for four sub and you're good to go you roll with us for the rest of the season for 10 bucks that's it we suck tough you got the deal for 10 bucks uh we'll be better next week because we kind of stuck last week in some instances so uh just hang with us we'll be better uh again a great
Starting point is 00:04:58 great way to deal and again if you're still grinding season long or anything like that you want to play dfs all the things that we're doing it for for covered in that betting sub with that deal so uh take advantage of it it's a fantastic one all right live lines no stale bread these are all things available for you to bet on right now connor floor is yours kickoff week four yeah so i have a couple of overs that i really love but i'm gonna keep a lot of them in the no but sorry slava i'm going back on it i gotta i i gotta keep one in the pocket that we'll talk about later, but, um, mute them Ryan until there's a little bit more like clarity. Yeah, I know. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:05:31 So I'm going to start it off with an under and I'll end with an over. Um, so I'm starting off with the under here. We're going with CJ Stroud under 34 and a half pass attempts. Um, and so it's a little bit different than, you know, the normal look for us but nico collins was limited yesterday it was practiced today joe mixon returned to practice which i think is big tank dell is expected to be out and then stefan digs has struggled against man coverage just 1.41 yards per hour run so far this season um we saw at the end of last season really struggled
Starting point is 00:05:59 separate against man jags play a ton of man so even with their top three wide receivers healthy the texans were only at like about an even pass rate over expectation, a little bit above. So now you have them banged up and we saw at the beginning of last season, like Bobby Slug was super run heavy on early down just because, I mean, he didn't trust Stroud. They didn't have the weapons that they do now, but now with their weapons beat up against the Jaguars team that I don't think is going to push them at all. I mean, they're six point, you know, underdogs here. The Texans defense is awesome. And the Jags are gonna be missing going to be missing Foye Luokan, your tackle god there. So I think you can see the Texans going a little bit run heavier here,
Starting point is 00:06:32 controlling the game. I mean, this Jags offense, I think Doug Peterson needs to be fired. The Jags are just like, they just need to figure something else out at this point. I think this is going to come to a head here, honestly, maybe this week. So I'm expecting maybe 30, 32 pass times for cj stroud and not a bad week but just limited volume when he is like he's probably chucking it deep to nico collins who's just absolutely wrecking this uh jag secondary it's kind of gross slop but the thought process makes a ton of sense i know you're not on it but any thoughts on this matchup or uh
Starting point is 00:06:59 anything based off what connor said i stopped listening after i heard under no chance no um no that's uh that's probably not lying though he's probably not he started stretching he leaned back in his chair yep shopping otherwise he's like whatever the Jags stink and you're right I mean like they they will drain any over and turn into an under quickly I mean I just watched that game the other night I was like this team is this is bad like yeah, that was horrible, that Bills game. Like, I thought Peterson should be fired after that. Yeah, I agree.
Starting point is 00:07:30 Him and that general manager. Like, whoever put that team together and whoever coaches them, both got to go. Like, that was one of those losses where it's like, God damn. We've had a lot of bad stuff, you know, draft picks, and it's so easy to have hindsight analysis and, like, Trayvoner's been fine but trayvon walker shorts and a t-shirt champion with his long arms that trent bulky loves and just passed on aiden hutchinson those little baby alligator arms baby baby arms and hutchinson's out here balling with baby arms dude killing it so yeah not a great one
Starting point is 00:08:03 i mean and you know it's not like uh cj stroud or or you know bryce young or there's lots of other ones that you know jump out to you before you think trayvon and hutch but like pretty bad pretty bad yeah well that was great for our group chat fantastic i'll never begrudge the pick but yeah that was that was one of the greatest drafts of my life probably the greatest yeah yeah yeah that's i've lost all the money i won on that sense you know it's been yeah but brutal couple of drafts since then but uh at least you had it to lose right that's what i thought was it don't be don't cry because it's over cry because yeah whatever yeah because you were there something i like that. I don't know. Don't cry.
Starting point is 00:08:46 We're not quoting professionals, you know. Yeah. No. But, yeah, I get the process, Connor. I mean, we wanted to blast some other, like, stuff, and maybe we'll get there in this game. But, yeah, some of these numbers have opened up pretty, pretty, pretty high. So, all right.
Starting point is 00:09:03 Slop, what do you got, buddy? Deontay johnson uh everything so here's the thing i'm looking right now to get his best number because i took his receptions literally maybe well maybe it was an hour ago it was like five and a half plus 108 so i'm trying to find it right now the best number i think he catches six balls like he got targeted like 14 times didn't he like something crazy like that a busy day hey look no feeling I don't think Andy Dalton has any problem uh just force feeding the guy looking at a separations number like the separation number he's always open like always so looks like plus 115 at bed mgm so that appears to be the best number i know most people that watch this can't bet at mgm uh mainly because they watch this but um yeah that looks like it's about as good as it gets i mean plus 114 at pinnacle
Starting point is 00:10:01 which is kind of weird but yeah plus 112 atbet. I mean, is that even a real book? No offense, Ballybet. Ballybet? Is that a real thing? Yeah, Ballybet. Is that what happened? Yeah, they were supposed to come to Massachusetts, and I downloaded the app and everything, and they just never came here.
Starting point is 00:10:17 They saw you. They were a real book, I think. Noonan was from around there, and Jeff, like, and they were just like, we're not coming to this state. Yeah, we're good. John Cena, big batter out in Massachusetts. Yep. Yeah, so I don't know.
Starting point is 00:10:31 Deontay Johnson, just like I said, against the Bengals, I think that the Panthers are going to get the best the Bengals can be. So whatever that is. So I don't know how good that is, but I think it's better than Carolina. So I don't think Carolina sneaks up on anybody this week at all i think they're ready but red rifle is not that bad like he proved it last week he's not that bad so he's a obvious upgrade from bryce young so six catches in a game where they're gonna need points no, no feeling. I don't know. Like I said, I think he got targeted 14 times. Like, look –
Starting point is 00:11:07 13. That is crazy town for a six reception. Because, like I said, he runs every route. It's not like they're just throwing bombs to him all the time. Like, he's all over the map. So, six catches, that feels way too easy, especially at plus 115. If you want to go seven catches, I mean, I don't like going up quite that high, but like, I don't know, I'm looking at plus 145 here, which is,
Starting point is 00:11:38 hang on, I'll get you a better one. Fandul's got 168. It's not that crazy. Yeah. Especially too, Cincinnati with their pass rate over expectation, like they just can force some volume there too. And again, just, I think the floor's a little bit higher with that offense. You said they are not seeking up on anyone and yeah, no feeling is a nice little, nice little piece there. I'm sure you looked at Deontay stuff here, Connor, any thoughts? No, no i love it it's one of those that i was looking at and considering so i'm struggling with this game a little bit because so last week against the bangles we were on brian robinson to go over
Starting point is 00:12:17 and lou anarumo was like you guys are not going to run on us like we have are missing our two starting defensive tackles we're just going to like stop the run. And that's, that led to Jayden Daniels looking like, you know, prime Mike Vick out there. Like literally it was like, I just bombs away running whenever he wanted juking guys up. It was like, I mean, so obviously as a Brian Robinson bag holder, I was pissed, but I was taking notice of what was going on. So now I'm curious to see like what the bangals do, you know, in this instance, like, do they try and stop the run? Because we know the Panthers had a really good running game, like, you know, against the Raiders. Like, do they try and slow down Chuba Hubbard and make
Starting point is 00:12:52 Andy Dalton beat them? Or are they like, shit, Andy Dalton just, again, you know, shredded as well. Like almost, it's funny to think that I think that they're kind of like a balanced attack at this point that they can run the ball reasonably well and that they can throw the ball. Like the Bengals defense sucks. And I think that they're only capable of fully stopping one or the other like i don't think that they have they can do both so like if the if the panthers pass a lot or like force pass a lot like dionte is gonna have like 125 yards 10 catches and two touchdowns but if they do the opposite and like try and i don't know bracket it maybe a little bit more or like you know maybe play a little bit softer up front, Chuba Hubbard's going to have $100.25 and maybe a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:13:28 So I don't know, maybe just play both alts in different iterations. Something's going to happen. Something's going to break. Something has to happen. I mean, both Rankins and Hill are out as well. This is a problem that I'm running into on the side of trying to take an under. My projections love the under on the bangles linebackers every week. But the thing I can't account for is that these guys keep getting to the
Starting point is 00:13:49 second level because no one up front is stopping them. So these guys are getting, you know, insane tackle numbers. And I might, it's like breaking the math of my projections, even though it's just, it makes a ton of sense. So yeah, I'm, I'm with you guys. I like the thought here. Deontay again, 35% target per outrun with Thielen in the game. Makes some sense here too. Jeff's out here citing Hard Rock.
Starting point is 00:14:11 That's another sports book, Jeff? Yeah, no, Jeff has to play at Hard Rock. I know he's in Florida. They're in Florida. Florida shit, yeah. He just popped in Illinois too, actually. Oh, really? Have you tried it out?
Starting point is 00:14:21 I haven't. I have not. I tried it out when I was in Florida in March. It's absolute garbage. But maybe it's been better. No offense to people at Hard Rock. No offense, Hard Rock. No offense.
Starting point is 00:14:32 Yeah. As a potential show sponsor down the road, we could love you. But you got to pay the money. I'm willing to love you. Yes. With some promo funds or a nice lucrative CPA, whatever you want to do for us. We can find a way to love you. The I was with this guy.
Starting point is 00:14:50 I think you, it's this guy on Twitter, DK DFS, whatever. I was with him last week, watch Thursday night football. Good dude. He was showing me the hard rock.
Starting point is 00:14:57 Like you can bet all thunder, like parlays on there. And they don't usually have like, it's like bet three, six, five stuff. Like kind of like where they have like a way more options and things. i'm sure his account he bet some like alt under wnba parlay so i'm sure his account is cooked at this point but like the fact that they had it was kind of
Starting point is 00:15:12 cool like where no one else did so i don't know if i ever run into one of those situations uh i might download hard rock and empty the clip there but i would love to prime it you know like bet some sides and totals for like six months try and be a vip and then just like unload on them like you know a couple weeks yeah for one bad line you can catch them back you know oh yeah all thunders just had connor just going alt under can i download that right now yeah literally i might open it up in uh in january and just start betting uh golf outrights on there. And then just, you know, get ready for next football season. Millie baseball parlays, finger parlays.
Starting point is 00:15:52 I'm telling you, that is the road to riches. Like you can just bet whatever you want on that book after that. Yeah. So thank you. Shout out FanDuel. I know it's a DraftKings show, but you too, DraftKings. Yeah, both you guys. Everybody gets some love.
Starting point is 00:16:06 All right, first play for me. I got a play that I absolutely love this week. Connor knows it too. It's just right now it's only on FanDuel, so we're going to save that for subscribers. We're going to get some more out. It's going to be a good one. But this one's kind of on brand.
Starting point is 00:16:18 I like these longest reception plays, longest rushes, splash plays. I'm going to go with George Pickens. Longest reception over 21.5 yards. This is out there between like 20.5, 22.5, depending on the book. If you have MGM and you can get down, minus 110 is the best number. I think Caesars is out there too, the same, but I think juiced a little bit too. But this is a great spot. Colts defense is just,
Starting point is 00:16:45 it's beaten up. Kenny Moore slot corner, best player in the secondary out this week. Pickett's mostly placed in the outside, but he's been playing like he's run no fewer than 10 routes in the slot. And every game of season, 10 to 15. So he's going to work a little bit in the slot.
Starting point is 00:16:59 He is popped over this comfortably. And each of the first two, well, two of the first three games, he did not get there, got close, but week two of the first three games. He did not get there, got close, but week two against Patrick Sertan, shadow coverage, did not get there. But 27 in week one, 40-yarder last week.
Starting point is 00:17:14 Pittsburgh's running a ton of plays. Colts cannot get off the field defensively. So this is just a really weird game from a play projection standpoint, based off of what we've seen in the first three, because we have the team that's run the most plays against the team that's given up the most. They just think there's going to be a lot of play volume
Starting point is 00:17:27 and some shots here. We know that Justin Fields can take some shots deep. So 21 and a half is just not a lot for Pickens with the way he runs routes. So love this number. We play it comfortably at 22 and a half if that's the best that you can get. I think he probably should be 23, 24,
Starting point is 00:17:42 like where most of the big guys are. So they're trying to scheme some more layups for him but again this is just how we win still still an a dot over 10 uh like pickings to break one here in the dome connor any thoughts on pickings yeah he was on my list i know stew like monotone hit him early in our discord at like 46 or something like that his total receiving yards which i love it's up to like 52 53 uh i admittedly don't know why i didn't join stew on that i thought that was a great look i mean the rest of the guys that they're trying out a receiver are just like
Starting point is 00:18:09 absolute losers i mean these are those like nobody um and so like pig and piggins is awesome so like i think this is a good a really good spot for him i mean the colts again the colts is literally just like trying out a bunch of bums at corner like this is like if you would have told me before the year like we're matching up who's even active for the Steelers at this point is it Van Jefferson active Roman Wilson are they all out Barrington Illinois's own Scotty Miller yes Scotty Miller against like the Colts fourth string corner is gonna be like a legitimate matchup this week like yeah I mean yeah like it's just it's embarrassing so I think even if the Steelers don't have to throw a ton,
Starting point is 00:18:45 I think that this is a good look. Like again, that's why I feel like at this point, the longest probably the better look instead of the yards. But I do think that all pick and stuff, like if it's all clicking, for some reason they got to throw the ball 25, 30 times. I mean, Pickens could have like 150, like if he really hits a ceiling here.
Starting point is 00:18:59 But yeah, I like the look. Dude just dominates air yard share. 47% of the air yards on the season for Pickens. Yeah. Just, yeah, it's Calvin Austin, Scotty Miller,
Starting point is 00:19:11 Van Jefferson, Ben Skoronek is on the team now, apparently. So I think whenever he was drafted, George Pickens, like, I think I knew at that point, like he was either going to be just like an absolute dog or just like
Starting point is 00:19:22 horrible, like, like complete, complete dog ass. Like it was just one of those, like an absolute dog or just like horrible, like complete dog ass. It was just one of those where he's staring at the TV, like that whole thing. I was like, oh, this guy's crazy. He's going to be an absolute animal in the league.
Starting point is 00:19:35 Well, we had some reports on that, some of the stuff in college coming out on Pickens was not very – There were good videos, though, of him. Like he took some kid right off his cleats, like with a block. Remember that? It was like, dude, this is great. You know, like can he catch? You know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:19:50 That's all I wanted to know. Well, he was awesome as like a freshman, and then he just kind of – I think he got hurt, though. Yeah. Because I remember in a national title game, his number was pretty low, but he came back. But I think it was the week before he took the kid off the cleats. So I was like, he looks like he's fine.
Starting point is 00:20:04 Like I'm going to take him. And I took him over his receipt receiving yards that night. And I think he caught one ball, which got it. So thank God. But yeah, it was a long one. Checking the box for the longest. Yeah. I'll never forget him for that.
Starting point is 00:20:16 Nice work Pickens. Yeah. He does it again this week for sure. Is he going to be the next Steelers wide receiver? Just fall off a cliff as soon as he leaves or like something happens with Tomlin or whatever. I mean, that would be the least surprising thing I mean we'll you know put in our calendars whatever five six years from now or whatever when he's you know not in the Steelers inevitably or gets the bag somewhere else and he's like doing nothing or
Starting point is 00:20:36 suspended or something and it's like oh Tomlin somehow kept some other crazy guy under wraps yeah he's good or he goes over the middle he ever starts running like slants or anything where he can get his clock cleaned a little bit and we get a concussion and he comes out of that like it's already a little bit loose and you shake it up a little bit it's kind of what happened to antonio brown never the same after that vontaze burfit hit definitely uh and so you got him cte baby uh connor all right, back to you, buddy. What do you got? All right, second play of the day, and this will be much more slopped language.
Starting point is 00:21:13 I'm going with DK Metcalf over one and a half receiving yards right now. Best line on Caesars. It's like 63, 64 in other spots. I think that's totally fine as well. He's just in a fantastic spot here against the Lions. So, you know, I think Newton some, some spots that he likes. I'm not going to blow up entirely here, but I do expect, um, you know, the lie or the Seahawks to focus on this lion's past defense, this their past defense right now is just, I mean, they're a massive pass funnel, their top five and run defense outside of the top 20 and past defense. Um, you know, DK Metcalf has leads the team in target share is really good against man coverage with the Lions playing above average rate of 28% target share, 2.5 yards per hour
Starting point is 00:21:49 run dating back to, you know, his career. So like, I think this spot here, again, if the Lions push the Seahawks at all, which I fully expect them to have some kind of answer or play well, the Seahawks could throw a bunch. DK Metcalf is an awesome, awesome matchup here. Only 61. I mean, obviously this is somewhat reliant on like a bomb in a sense, but like, I mean, it could very well not be. Like he doesn't need a 70 yard touchdown every week to,
Starting point is 00:22:10 to flirt with 60, but then obviously to get the all it's like, I think that's very much in play against a bunch of Lions corners who I don't think are very good to be honest. So I'm interested to see how this goes. But I like over 61 and a half. I played 90 plus at plus 270 and 110 plus at five plus 550 here on DK Metcalf or sprinkle as well. I mean,
Starting point is 00:22:30 they're tied with the bangles right now for pass rate over expectation. And last year, the lions were second defensively in pass rate over expectation against team skew pass heavy and their third so far this year. So just kind of a perfect matchup with how these teams are playing so uh i like it slop what do you think here nice little over on dk make up um yeah so i took that in the thunderdome today i think it was um tommy g but um i was more focused on yeah shout out tommy i was uh focused more on. 250, this would be my next pick, but 250 plus at Caesars is even money.
Starting point is 00:23:08 And I think they're fine to throw the ball. I'm kind of scared to take quarterbacks over just with what we've seen so far this year. It's kind of, it's not like everybody's doing it type thing. You really got to get the right ones,
Starting point is 00:23:24 get the right games. But this is a perfect game for that. I don't think they'll be able to run on them at all. And Gino, I mean, last week, 289 against the Dolphins. They won 24 to three. So like you would think, I don't know, like especially against the Dolphins team that you probably didn't really need to go 289 on just because they don't even have a quarterback. So you needed literally six points, and you beat them. But, yeah, they let Geno go nuts 327 the week before against the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:23:56 So you can only imagine if they actually need or have a trailing game script against the Lions. Like, he's probably going 300-plus plus and that would mean DK obviously gets home. But I mean, I think all those guys will eat. Yeah. I mean, the Seahawks right now,
Starting point is 00:24:12 they lead the league and pass right over expectation and they didn't even pass that much last week. I mean, like, I mean, again, cause the game was out of hand. Um,
Starting point is 00:24:21 he still threw it 34 times. Exactly. And he still threw it 30. Yeah. It's, it's pretty wild there. I was like curious about like, you know, Metcalf versus JSN versus Lockett, you know that. So I think maybe the Geno look specifically there is like just a fantastic look.
Starting point is 00:24:40 But I think like all the overs are great. Like what I'm most interested in that game specifically is like how the Lions handle the Seahawks defense because the Seahawks defense has played really well this season. They've played against a bunch of jabronis. Yeah. Skyler Thompson. I mean, again, me and you were throwing passes out there by the end of the game.
Starting point is 00:24:59 But now what do we see against an actual offense? That's the question. What do we see here? I mean, Slav, do you have a take on that? I think they're going to have trouble with Detroit. I really do. So, yeah, they're going to go. That game's in Detroit, right?
Starting point is 00:25:14 So it's not like they're not at home. It's inside too, so it's on the track. Man, that could be a really fun one because, to be honest with you, the other game that night, this is Monday night, is horrible. It is literally one that I don't even know if I could watch that. The Titans-Dolphins. It's not great. Against some dude.
Starting point is 00:25:44 Is it Skyler? We don't know. It might be Huntley, yeah oh yeah no no someone said huntley was starting yeah so i don't know maybe i'll go huntley in that one just for the vibes but i also want to let's hope that other one's good there was a good shout out in our discord from uh i don't remember exactly who it was but we they brought up tyreek hill's line he's only like 50 um yeah with new huntley i mean he might be good dude like he's not that bad like you're trying to say when you're remember when john kitna used to come in for the lions and he just dropped 300 like i i don't know huntley he feels like a guy that if he you know he could come in and drop 260 for you you know what i mean like no big deal yeah yeah we'll
Starting point is 00:26:33 see though uh shout out to connor being a you know just a good teammate here just a good you know good point guard good assist here the one i was talking about the top that i really wanted uh that was only on fan duel that is now also on seizures mgm 365 is geno smith over 33 and a half pass attempts so we just cooked it up you guys handicapped it for me i didn't have to do it i kind of gave some of my handicap in the dk stuff again they lead the league at pass rate over expectation detroit faces one of the highest pass rate over expectations in the league this This is just a top five run defense. They skew teams that way, and it's what Seattle wants to do anyway. And I think the shout out last week against Miami,
Starting point is 00:27:12 where they kind of had control of that game the whole game. Miami plays so slow. They play even slower than normal last week. Geno still goes over the number. If you had Skyler Thompson, you wouldn't want to run a play either. Yeah. So I absolutely love this number. I mean, we't even seen the the seahawks get pushed i mean they played literally denver new england and miami yeah thompson like imagine if they're losing like
Starting point is 00:27:34 like literally yeah i feel like i want to say it like gino's got it like he plays the full game he's fine i guess i'll say it that way. I don't want to jinx it. He plays the full game. I have a really hard time finding a scenario in this where 30 – I thought I had this in my notes on Monday morning, and I was like, I think at 35.5. We would have to consider it, and we would want to do some work on it. So 33.5 sitting out there at FanDuel, and now Caesars, MGM, 365 join the party.
Starting point is 00:28:04 Does anybody have alts for attempts? Caesars sometimes does. Let me see if they have them up right now. So let's just bet our houses. I don't see it up. They have alts like rushing attempts normally. They might have it later in the week. They already
Starting point is 00:28:20 moved to 34.5. I mean, shout out to the chat slash subscribers for hitting that. But I mean, again, like we talked about like you can read i think you could legit play like 40 plus here at times yeah that's in range you know what i mean he wouldn't have 44 against new england it's like what you just said we haven't seen him even get pushed he was over that number before ot but yeah the game was close and went to ot so yeah as a spot as a dog road dog like yeah it just doesn't seem like a really good number so definitely one of my favorite bets of the week for sure so connor's in that with me and uh fits nicely with the dk stuff and
Starting point is 00:28:57 slops on the overyard so it feels like we got a couple of legs for our millie parlay here you know yeah i was about to say i'm ready with whatever you are yeah we can't afford not to we gotta get going on this i feel like we have to we can't start building that until we're at least halfway through the show and now we are halfway through the show so we go because you know that once you go there's no going back no you know i'm saying like like you i can't get back into like rational thought like after you start thinking about millie parlays yeah there's some there's some awesome spots this week i mean there are like um i mean there's just some some amazing spots i'm excited to see what you guys have because i have like seven written down that i think are just like fucking alpha you know smash
Starting point is 00:29:42 spots here plus a little you know gino dk action too no i gotta give you one more normal play first oh you got a normal place though go back to that that's because this is what i had instead of uh gino and i get your thoughts on i think connor's gonna like this one which probably means i don't think slop's gonna it's. It's an under, yeah. An under? Conor's really been wanting to play, and he's been banging money on K.J. Osborne unders, right? Just out there, cardio club king, guy just out there, just running route after route after route who just is not doing anything. There's more looking at this.
Starting point is 00:30:18 There's another way to play it, which I think makes a ton of sense. Jacoby Brissett, longest completion under 29 and a half yards um now kind of a perfect spot uh brissette third lowest a dot in the league san francisco's allowed the second lowest rate of explosive pass plays this season just five percent san francisco also is the lowest missed tackle rate in the league so like sometimes in a play like this you need like someone to miss a tackle or something like that like san francisco doesn't do it too much new england's got one dude who's got an a dot over nine yards it's taekwon thornton he's had one target in the last two weeks like you're having
Starting point is 00:30:58 to have like demario douglas or hunter henry like break a tackle and try to run for 30 yeah you need a 30 yardyard reception here. Like that's just not happening with this current Patriots team. So this is on MGM, DK, Caesars, Rivers, under 29.5, longest for Jacoby Brissett, I think is an absolute banger. Not a place I love to go, but Brissett has won all season. Also, there's a shot that he probably doesn't make through the whole game so i don't know uh there's multiple outs here this uh this warms my heart for
Starting point is 00:31:31 a couple of reasons one you're betting against the patriots two it's an under and it's i mean just great it's great logic like i mean they have no game-breaking ability we talked about this before the season they have like five guys who all win in the same area none of them are able to be alphas in like the deep middle part of the field none of them are able to even they don't even have a really good deep deep threat guy like taekwon thornton's it but i mean you couldn't separate against nana like this is a new davante davante parker out there you know like it's it's crazy man so uh yeah i like this under a lot it's a great look slap i'm sorry, buddy. Yeah, I'm not doing it,
Starting point is 00:32:05 but I think I agree with it. Like, that's it. That's I'll take that. I mean, it's a stamp of approval. Like, I mean,
Starting point is 00:32:12 that's probably gonna happen. That's yeah. It just seems like, you know, sometimes you try to look at those longest reception props and I get why they do it this way, but then you see such a massive discrepancy to where the quarterback is. Cause obviously you don't have to pinpoint who the player is and come from some r do it this way, but then you see such a massive discrepancy to where the quarterback is because obviously you don't have to pinpoint
Starting point is 00:32:25 who the player is and come from some rando. But just, I don't know who the Pats, I don't know who gets there for the Pats. Like that guy's not on the roster unless Taequann Thornton all of a sudden is like playing a ton of plays and just hasn't been happening. So, yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:39 It's like you said, like the, someone just has to like break a tackle and get loose. I mean, if you're betting on that you then good luck yeah and again like we watched what happened with that pat's offensive line on thursday night last week right kobe does not have time to wait for someone to get open deep they legit might be playing with like four backup they have four offensive line starters who are
Starting point is 00:33:04 legitimately questionable multiple are going to sit i haven't seen the final injury report for that yet but like tough tough scene and i think this is jacoby's last game too i think this is yeah if i was jacoby i'd call it sick yeah take the day bud i'm not playing the guys that were the good guys are not playing and they were terrible so like can you imagine who their backups are? It's not pretty. All right, this is my last normie. We can get to some of the fun stuff here.
Starting point is 00:33:33 Slop, what do you got? What are you cooking up? It looks like Justice Hill. I don't mind his reception props over. All right, so here's the thing. thing in the first game when they had a game against the chiefs he got targeted like eight times and he caught six balls right like he was definitely part of that little pass game or whatever so the next week they play the raiders and boat race them basically for the whole game until the whatever like early in the fourth
Starting point is 00:34:03 quarter when they decided not to just run the ball and try and you know tick tock they didn't do that they they let the Raiders back in the game and that's why that game looked close but the reason why Hill only caught two balls that game was because it was not a real game it was like they will just they proven they will just hand the ball to Derrick Henry they have no no problem doing that. So then the next game, the Cowboys, the same thing happened again, and he only caught two balls. But again, there really wasn't a reason like there is this time around. I know they're favorites, but I think the Bills are legit.
Starting point is 00:34:41 And I wouldn't be shocked if that game goes back and forth the bills play with a lead whatever it is but people have been targeting running backs against the bills i think they're like they've seen i'm sorry 23 targets to running backs to put their opponents have done so that's fourth yeah that's fourth most in the nfl if and when this game turns into a push comes to shove, I guess, Justice Hill should be involved in that pass game because, like I said, they don't want Lamar just chucking the ball over the field. It's keep it close, Zay Flowers, Justice Hill, and hopefully not your boy Bateman, and that'll be a night.
Starting point is 00:35:22 And Isaiah Likely is probably in play too, but I think it's Hill. Four plus, just four catches is like plus 240, which I mean, that's not, I don't think that's plus 240 crazy. I mean, it's still four catches for a running back, but it's not a normal running back either. They have a running back. They use him more in the pass game.
Starting point is 00:35:40 Or want to, I would think. Go ahead, Connor. I was going to say, I really like that. I released earlier in the week and I almost actually saved it for the show, but I didn't think it would be around by the time we got here. We played Josh Allen over 228 passing yards and alt overs. We saw last week in the first half, before the game was even out of hand, before the two-minute warning, we're looking at 32 dropbacks for Josh Allen
Starting point is 00:36:03 and six running back runs, seven running back runs. Like they, you know, Joe Brady for as much flack as he gets was like, you know what, we're going to pass the ball because this is where we see our advantage. Now the Ravens, elite run defense, very middling to below average pass defense so far this season. I think that we see Josh Allen come out and just sling it like basically every play,
Starting point is 00:36:21 which again, I think it's going to, it elevates volume. It boosts pace. It's going to go back and forth. Like, I think that there's a lot we can do with this game. I haven't played a single pass catcher on the bills yet, but I think there's a lot of different angles that you could do with that too.
Starting point is 00:36:33 So, but yeah, I did play the Bateman under, you mentioned my guy, Bateman bills outside like perimeter corners have done a great job of defending this year. I think it was like, I think they will have like 13 or 14 receptions all year to outside
Starting point is 00:36:44 receivers. So obviously like we're talking like two, a game and zay flowers plays outside sometimes like lamar you know not his best when he's thrown outside the numbers either so i think that baben can be held catchless here this week i really wanted khalil shakir receptions this week and open like three and a half minus 160 or something like that just not typically a price point i'm gonna jump into but uh you know four and a half and plus money it's still pretty much where it is across the board so like you know i don't know five plus on shakir makes a ton of sense because that's where the ravens begin cooked that was part of my cd handicap last week cd like that was such a tough loss but because the that like, I don't know, prayer yards, but they're like,
Starting point is 00:37:26 he caused like five or six pass interference plays. I felt like every time in the second half, I'm just like dying over here waiting for him to go off. And of course he does it last night, but yeah, I don't know. Slots against the Ravens have been cooking all season. And Shakir I think is starting to really kind of emerge as someone that he really trusts. So I think Shakir five plus probably plus 140 or something like that.
Starting point is 00:37:48 Caesars, I think is what the number is. That's pretty interesting to me as well. It kind of correlates with that too. But yeah, I mean, I think your handicap of the game matters on the Justice Hill stuff. And I'm with you. I think that that's, I'm pro Bills in that spot, getting two and a half, Bills money line.
Starting point is 00:38:00 Definitely don't think it's a spot where the Ravens get up and just run a ton. So I think it bodes well. That's what what we saw Hill week one when that game was close so yeah I don't mind that uh Connor you building it out or are we gonna start what do you got you start to well I added um well I added slops prop I had Justice Hill four plus receptions I think that's a great start and then Josh Allen 300 plus passing yards that's like four to one something like that so we're already at 15 to one we're well on our way is there anything else you wanted to add in that game or do you want to go to what about likely i mean it feels like this would be
Starting point is 00:38:35 a spot where like i said that they if they need to throw the ball i bet you he would be involved they'll manufacture ways to get him the ball like not like the traditional tight end thing like they'll run him out of the slot they'll run him you know what i mean that they'll just figure out a way to get him the ball so i mean what do you think it's like you could do yards i mean obviously 40 plus it's plus 225 which that's not 225 crazy in my book but also receptions four plus receptions it's plus 178 which if they do do those stupid little you know behind the line of scrimmage passes where like you know that's a free reception but the guy could get dropped for a five yard loss like that's the only problem with those but
Starting point is 00:39:16 i mean i don't know but i i do think that he would get the ball in in in the scenario that we're talking about he is probably getting the ball you know what i mean like that's because again like you said they they really can't use their receivers on the outside yeah do you know what i mean well one of them's bateman so you really can't use him anyways but like yeah do you guys know off top of your head how often he's been lining up in the slot i think the bill slot corner is out this week right taron johnson again johnson's out cam lewis is starting historically the bills have been awesome against tight ends um but that stuff can be pretty noisy that's well that's mark andrews yeah he's there like you know what i mean though like up to the way they were slide likely was
Starting point is 00:39:56 like they were doing nonsense in the first game like that that wasn't a tight end it was to the point where you really couldn't say like um the chiefs are bad against tight ends because you're like yeah he is a tight end but he was not being used as a traditional tight end it wasn't you know anything like that that's fair let me see here likely uh slot let's open the wrong year year year matters um you want to know just do slot from week one we're looking at like 49 slot rate um in line 39.1 so slot numbers gone down every game too yeah but they again those two games don't even count in my book that's not the same type of you know what i mean like thousand percent they're playing with the lead pretty quickly there last week.
Starting point is 00:40:49 They decided, like, how many times did they run the ball last week? And Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson, together, it was crazy. It was literally every play. It was either one of those guys running. You're like, all right, well, this is fun. Yeah, to see Lamar have like 14 attempts after betting his under-run attempts the before he gets the raiders uh and he can't even crack 20 against the cowboys pretty pretty tilting 39 they read those two together 39 attempts throw in five from justice hill and another one for flowers yeah like i don't think that you're not getting that kind of rushing volume. So that has to go somewhere.
Starting point is 00:41:27 I think it all goes to Isaiah likely. I think it's likely. And Justice Hill. Dad joke. Yeah, I don't hate that at all. So which one do we add? Receptions or yards? I'll leave it to you, Connor.
Starting point is 00:41:44 All right. I vote we go go 40 plus yards just in case our handicaps are wrong you can break one you know what i mean yeah he just leaves more outs you know um sweet okay cool um all right what noon where i'll let you take it somewhere else i have like five other ones written down so we're gonna have no problem getting to a million bucks here this is like yeah how about some uncorrelateds that are interesting you could stand alone to add here too um well we lasted what five minutes before we started talking uncorrelated yeah that's a record it's already kind of floating around the chat here um seeing more routes that have uh tutu atwell who's got's got some big play ability here.
Starting point is 00:42:26 Tutu against the Bears. Bear defense is good. Good defense. Under three and a half receptions for Tutu. 60 plus on Fandle is 14 to one. Is he a deep guy now? He is a deep guy. Yeah, that's what it looked like Sunday.
Starting point is 00:42:44 Yeah, I'll give you his. So R so routes jumped up quite a bit last week. Let's see what the percentage is, which is pretty nice. Yeah, he jumped up to 83% of the routes last week from 31. 21% target per route run. His ADOT last week was 16.2. He had 30% of the team's air yards nice so yeah doesn't take much for the little guy to uh to get it done so you know three balls 20 yards a pop uh we're cooking 14 to 1 on vandal like it quite a bit i don't mind it i hate at pair
Starting point is 00:43:22 or i hate uh tutu alwell i don't know i just kind of don't like you hate I hate A.T. Perry. Or I hate Tutu Alwell. I don't know. I just kind of don't like him. You hate A.T. Perry. He does hate A.T. Perry. I know you hate him. Do you think – okay, side note. Do you think A.T. Perry is going to be active this week? We got some news in our little private 444 Slack chat going on right now about a rogue A.T. Perry line available,
Starting point is 00:43:41 which he hasn't played a single game this season. So that's kind of – He hasn't played yet, yeah. But, like, he didn't – I don't know. He didn't practice on Thursday either. So – all right. Well, I'm not going to ruin the edge. So sorry, guys.
Starting point is 00:43:53 Just join the Discord. Maybe I'll tell you guys later about where it is. But 2-2 Atwell, yeah, I mean, it's fine. I added to the slip. Why not? We're like – he, like – the Bears, too, like, they have a lot, a lot of explosive plays. They haven't been, like – Surprisingly, they have. surprisingly they have yeah yeah like they've been good on a per
Starting point is 00:44:09 play basis but then randomly they have a lot of explosive so um you know what i'm in under three and a half like minus 150 but if you pair with 50 or 60 plus or 14 to 1 we're already at i think 70 to 1 i don't know what that is yeah yeah i mean if this dude was running 50 of the routes about 83 last week kind of took over tyler johnson connor's boy kind of slipped back there again you know joining winning winnington never really stepped up still hovering around 35 of the routes or so last couple weeks so tutu is kind of a guy they seem to trust been around been the system a little bit longer than everyone else so should be on the fields so love it and then our king our new our jammo replacement
Starting point is 00:44:48 we get a spot where we got the chiefs seven point favorites here against a pretty depleted chargers team don't think we see a ton of volume but uh doesn't take much for xavier worthy to do the same thing under three and a half 60 plus plus 12 50 on fendel low volume passing game i think here yeah that feels right the xavier worthy stuff i feel like should just be an auto play every week right i just yeah i feel like i'm just beating you guys to it if you didn't have it no it's like i just don't understand why they keep lining him at three and a half the only way i'm gonna play it is with this kind of you know random shit what do you three and a half 50 or 60? I did 60, but yeah. 60 was 12.50, I think.
Starting point is 00:45:31 Yeah, I mean, we're cooking here. I mean, yeah, that's 12.60 right there. Man, these uncorrelated just get juicy real fast. Just real fast, yeah. We don't even have anything from the Lions, Seahawks, or the Commanders-Cardinals game. Yeah. Which that could get out of hand.
Starting point is 00:45:50 Yeah. I mean, Connor, we were talking about this before the show. The Marv number is huge. It might not be big enough. I mean, Marv Ladders, 100-plus is like 275 on Caesars. 120 is five and a quarter. 140 is 850. I think he has to.
Starting point is 00:46:16 That's how you become a made guy in the NFL now is you have 100 against the commanders. That's how you know your team's alpha is that you get 100 against them. I added Marv a hundred plus. Okay. I think he has to get that. Greg Dorch is people are talking about. I'm not doing that. I refuse to,
Starting point is 00:46:34 but people are talking about it. I played over on a Michael Wilson, three and a half receptions. Okay. Yeah. I could get behind that. I feel like he cucked all my training bride receptions last weekions last week in the slot so yeah we were almost millionaires so close and then michael wilson shows up it was probably busted before then but still it doesn't matter stories blame any of the guys that
Starting point is 00:46:58 lost it doesn't matter when they lost i car i feel like you're sitting on a bunch what do you got yeah what do you got um i mean we got? I mean, we got to add, um, do we talk, do we add, we didn't even add DK Metcalf yet. So DK Metcalf. Um,
Starting point is 00:47:11 yeah. DK Metcalf, Gino. Pickens. Should we get some pickings? Oh yeah. Pickings. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:19 Gino Smith, all passing yards. I mean, what do you want for Gino? 300, probably 300 for Gino. I'd go 300. Yeah. I think he gets that. I don Gino. I'd go 300. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:25 I think he gets that. I don't think that is crazy at all. No. Whereas like now it feels like 300 is getting, it's 300 yards again. You know what I mean? Whereas like, I don't know. Like, I don't think that's crazy for him. That coach wants to throw, like they, they want to just be washington again yeah yeah
Starting point is 00:47:46 they got the horse what do you want for what are we thinking for pickings 180 is like plus 255 90 70 70 okay all right see i know you don't like not but like no I do but like I was gonna play the over on yards but he's just been like they've been so inefficient um Jalen Warren's out Cordell Patterson's out the Colts are missing DeForest Buckner so like hypothetically it should be a good matchup um but he's been they've been so bad like they've been so bad at running the ball it's like three yards every time so so he needs 20 carries. Needs 20 carries.
Starting point is 00:48:27 So if he gets 20 carries, he still might not even hit all. He's like 70, 74, and 76 rushing yards on whatever, like 20 carries a game basically against teams that are fine, I think, defensively, but nothing like no elite units. So for me, it was kind of just like, I was like, look, in perfect game script, he probably gets there, but that's not something I want to put a bunch of money on. So one last one that I want to add here for alts,
Starting point is 00:48:55 Jaden Reed, alt overs. If Jordan Love plays, I think that this number is like, you know, a good 10, 15 yards off of what it should be. It won't be that high. It's probably moving maybe four or five yards if he's confirmed in. numbers like you know good 10 15 yards off um of what it should be it won't be that high it's probably moving maybe four or five yards if he's confirmed um in so it's like one of those things where he's been really good against zone he's like leads the team in target rate against zone he reads leads the league or leads his team as well against zone blitzes um he crushed in week one
Starting point is 00:49:21 with jordan love and then last season he had like 83 and 87 yards against the Vikings, against this very similar Vikings defense. So I would guess that he sees a ton of work and pops one here. I feel like we're looking at 48 and a half as a line. I think the alts are very interesting here at like, I don't know, 70, 80 yards here. I mean, again, he did literally both games last time against this team. Evan in the chat chats talking about watson can you see that yeah last week two catches 67 yards built in could be with jayden reed there hogging all the targets he could be an anti-correlation guy.
Starting point is 00:50:09 I mean, we are at $0.35 to win a million bucks right now. So we are well over our quota. Wow. I mean, do we want to make this easier? I feel like this is like – Yeah, so where could we make it a little bit easier? We didn't even add like Nico stuff. We wanted to add maybe some like Bears stuff or some easier we didn't even add like nico stuff wanted to add some maybe some like bears stuff or some you know we didn't even get there but yeah no caleb alts jamar chase
Starting point is 00:50:31 i mean jamar chase is in a smash spot as well dionte we didn't even have dionte alts like i don't even know if we need necessarily the the uncorrelated here because i just like boosted like a million times you know what i mean like it's if you relax you know yeah literally i'm i mean i don't even know what to do with this what do you what do you guys want to do like you know what's what's your gut telling you here um we could add somebody and then take out that anti-correlated stuff the non-correlated i go we make a separate non-correlated parlay and then just add in like our regular alts right now okay all right yeah dalton's got a good suggestion just bump the show out to about 90 minutes you make five different parleys
Starting point is 00:51:19 uh i mean just so many good thoughts here five times as many yachts that's just dalton really really dialed in here just the logic is so sound it works i love it um i mean do we want to add all right so i'll see if we add adults we got caleb alts i mean caleb just threw for you know whatever draw back a million yeah um and then slop who are your other guys do you do we want uh let's hear we didn't do nico do you like nico um ryan likes nico but i co-signed okay good that's that works i'm trying to i'm trying to plug all these in here we're pretty close again here 125 100 yeah 125 is fine yeah another one's good is cordell cordell patterson not out or is out did not hear that he was out until he might be playing um so
Starting point is 00:52:13 he might see a little bit of work but i mean again it's probably like five six carriers you know yeah all right now we're at three bucks to win a million um we're at three dollars that's my sweet spot yeah so i think this is a good yeah like the the two to five dollar range you know it feels good right um all right so quick rehashing out again guys i'll tweet it out i'll attach it to the show here after we uh you know log off josh allen 300 plus justice hill four plus isaiah likely 40 plus gino 300 d one 10 plus Marv a hundred plus pick in 70 plus read 80 plus Caleb two 75 plus Nico one 25 plus. That's it. That's not crazy. Not that crazy at all. Um, let's see here. Yeah. That's, I mean, talking about, it looks like it moved while we
Starting point is 00:53:03 were watching it while I was saying it. So that's crazy. We might need a little bit more than – we need 355 now. Man. Yeah. Yeah, there you go. They came out with Rome at two and a half receptions on DraftKings. Massively juiced. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:20 So four plus – I can't uncorrelate i mean i wanted to go under three and you know over 50 or something like that it's a little harder to do we're in like the uh you know nelson agalor territory here we need him to have like one or two catches for deep it's a little a little thinner it's a little harder to get there but maybe maybe that number gets hit a little bit especially with uh looks like we're gonna have is that do we have keenan allen news is that A little thinner. It's a little harder to get there. But maybe that number gets hit a little bit, especially with what looks like we're going to have. Do we have Keenan Allen news?
Starting point is 00:53:52 Is that trending well or he's in? I think he's playing, yeah. I think that's what, like, mid-show they said he's playing. Let's just see what happens there. Yeah, there's a lot of situations, too, real quick. Like, there's a lot of situations that they haven't posted lines for like the eagle situation like nothing just nothing um even like some buck stuff too i love the play yeah bucky my bucky's out i think isn't he like he didn't practice the last two games but then he said he was gonna be fine i don't know i mean who knows they're talking about like elevating them above white that's another situation like the bear situation
Starting point is 00:54:26 like does that even matter you don't even like like what do you do with that see the thing is rashad white sucks like real bad he might be worse than deandre swift so um i don't know not saying much but also another look mike evans first quarter yards i think is interesting they've said like three times this week, like we want to get Mike Evans involved early. And they want to, after he only had two catches, or two targets, two catches, one of the two last week against the Broncos and Patrick Sertan, you know, made him his child. So I think it was, I think he's in a good spot here to get like,
Starting point is 00:55:00 you know, whatever, 10 plus first quarter yards or, you know, early reception there. So it's an interesting angle. I didn't even hear that. I'm going to definitely look into that. That's actually a way to play those markets, those first quarter markets. Like literally that's a way to play them. Like down game for a receiver, especially receiver position because they're, you know, they're divas.
Starting point is 00:55:20 So they just force feed them early on where, you know, why not? Got a couple of sack notes for you guys. We hit a sack and a tackle here last week. No tackles for you guys right now, but fired a few. We'll have a bunch more because injury news have really slowed the tackle release market this week, but I'm sure it'll be a busy afternoon. I already told my wife, don't plan on seeing me until 7 7 30 gonna wait for these tackles to come out today this is priority but uh great spot for
Starting point is 00:55:52 the texans duo of will anderson jr and daniel hunter i think you can get anderson jr just a quarter sack like minus 120 so draft kings has I think they're going to get the full price for Hunter or the full sack at.75. It's fine. Texans lead the league in pass pressure rate. Jags are falling apart. The offensive line is really struggling. I think just overall inefficiency where you're going to have a spot where these guys are going to be able to pin their ears back and get to Trevor Lawrence.
Starting point is 00:56:21 And I think he's struggling. I think he's seeing that pass rush come in a little bit too. The offensive line is 27th in PFF's blocking grade. Lawrence's pressure to sack rate is up massively over last year, 25.6%. It's like a pretty big, pretty terrible pressure to sack rate for a guy that's pretty mobile and has done a decent job avoiding sacks early in his career. So two dogs coming from the edge, anderson jr and daniel hunter and nick bosa uh again like i said like could be missing we could be running
Starting point is 00:56:50 out a completely like backup offensive line for one of the league's worst offensive lines uh bosa over 0.75 sacks minus 130 on draft kings you can like sprinkle into some of the other guys too uh leonard floyd malik Collins, some of that other stuff too. Just give me the best dude. Give me Nick Bosa here teeing off against a past team that's going to be trailing and got a quarterback who's just trying to survive to get to the clipboard season here to run down the stretch. So give me Bosa and the Texans guys and sacks.
Starting point is 00:57:22 That seems fun. Yeah. Sacks have been doing well. Sacks are pretty fun you're fine yeah cleo mac last week in the show first first drive hit done boom it's all it takes just take the one just one like the one hitters yeah yeah me too always been a one-hitter guy you know what i mean big one-hitter guy you know my gosh you got to be kidding me. Chris Olave suffered an injury today in practice. We'll see how serious. From Nick Underhill a minute ago. I mean, can we get a break?
Starting point is 00:57:52 I mean, Jesus, guys. This is crazy. We have Devontae Adams out today. Olave getting injured. It's like a laundry list, man. It's crazy. This is nuts. It's rough.
Starting point is 00:58:02 Oh, my gosh. I mean, what do we even do with this? Like, I mean, I don't, I'm not running to take Shahid overs, but I mean, that's probably the right look.
Starting point is 00:58:11 Maybe that's why they're lined at Perry. That's, that's literally it. Maybe, you know, the, yeah, there,
Starting point is 00:58:16 there's your at Perry. Um, yeah, I think Taysom's involved in this game, which is kind of terrifying probably but tasem's probably involved yeah i don't know what that looks like but uh they're dying to get that that guy back on the field to get the ball in his hands it's dying to yeah he's gonna play right i think he was fine right uh by the end of the week yeah he's good all he had was a bruised lung right i mean
Starting point is 00:58:43 who cares you know it's nothing two lungs for a reason yep exactly how he had was a bruised lung, right? I mean, who cares? You know, it's nothing. He's got two lungs for a reason. Yep. Exactly. How do they even get bruised? Do we even know they're bruised? You can't see one. It's a lung. Does he have a dysfunctional rib cage?
Starting point is 00:58:55 Like, I feel like that's what it's there for, right? So your lungs don't get bruised, you know? Yeah, I don't know how you get organs bruised. Good question from Jake. President's Cup going on right now. Good stuff. Xander Candley getting absolutely boat raced by Hideki and Sanjay M right now. Good for the
Starting point is 00:59:10 international team rallying, showing up today, not tucking their tails between their legs. Yeah, absolutely demolished. Still holding out for Russell Henley, low rookie, 9-1. Can pay for all the NFL stuff this weekend. So, all right, you guys got anything else for the people?
Starting point is 00:59:30 I think I'm all picked out. Yeah, I mean, I've played like seven sweaty, greasy unders in the Discord. So if that's something you're looking at, we're talking about guys who are all lined under 30 yards. I've played, and I'm very excited about it. So, you know, if that's what you're into, definitely, you know, hop in, hop in the streets. The waters are warm.
Starting point is 00:59:49 And with all these other situations happening and injuries flying left and right, definitely have more plays throughout the week. You know, again, I think Roma Dunza was an interesting one. Dunza was an interesting one because, like you mentioned, dropped to two and a half receptions. 35 yards might still be too low, especially if Keenan Allen's limited. Like, I don't know. I just got to dig in where, you know, mid show here.
Starting point is 01:00:08 I haven't really had a chance to look at it, to be honest. Yeah. It feels, it feels light, but yeah. It's one play. I mean, that's the thing with him, right? So, and the Rams, that's the stuff. The Rams have been gashed with big place. Like they're allowing like a 60, I think
Starting point is 01:00:25 it was Rich Rebar had it. It was like a 67% completion percentage over passes 15 yards down the field. That's like prime Drew Brees on like sub five yard routes. They are getting cooked with big plays deep. So yeah, absolutely love to see it. So we'll have to
Starting point is 01:00:42 find some ways to go about attacking that. All right. Slop rules. YouTube channel. What else do people need? Slop rules on Twitter and Slop rules on YouTube. You find me there. You found all you need.
Starting point is 01:00:58 Everything else is just gravy. Take advantage of the rebate deal, guys. Let's be honest. don't get caught up in how you can play and like whatever that is a sweepstake game like some of the other pick them games like yeah whatever ask questions we can help you with that we get some guys in our discord pushing out rebate plays uh they have a version of prop builder and it's a way to get a subscription for the entire year for 10 10 bucks uh download rebet promo code 444 bet 444 bet about
Starting point is 01:01:29 48 hours you'll get an email telling you how to take advantage and access your subscription 10 bucks rest of the year everything you want so check it out if you have any questions reach out directly uh again subscribe before you take off we appreciate you hanging out with us come back on wednesday for our game previews for Connor and Slop. I'm Ryan. We'll see you all next time. Thanks, everyone.

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