NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal - Week 7 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

Episode Date: October 17, 2025

Gregg Rosenthal and NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund make their picks for Week 7 and they are going streaking! A winning streak, that is. The crew's been on fire with their NFL picks and they are hoping to keep the heat going into Week 7. They talk about Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (01:55), Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (04:52), Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (07:47), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (11:59), New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (15:12), and Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (20:27). Note: time codes approximate.NFL Daily YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nflpodcastsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Hey, everybody. Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks. On Move the 6th, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else.

It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael Florio, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet. We've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL. Visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're going streaking. I'm here in the Chris Wesleying podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland. Is you streaking college? Of course not. I'm talking about a winning streak that me and you are on. No, I definitely was not a person that do that. I didn't really know anyone. Was that really a thing? I don't think so.

Well, Boston College didn't have like sororities or fraternities. So I think that's like a frat situation, not like a. I might surprise you with this, but I was in a fraternity at Tulane University, ATO. Okay. What's the like acronym for like what is it? Alpha Tau Mega. And, like, what's the, like, you know, essay is same bleep everywhere. It's a great embarrassment to me. And yet, we had a lot of fun. You know, like, it wasn't, it wasn't like fraternities everywhere else where, like,

I didn't live in the house. I didn't ever pay any dues. It was just, you went out to a bar and you had fun. It was New Orleans. Okay. When I said we're going streaking, yeah. I'm mentioning how the sun is shining brighter on us in Los Angeles. The food is tasting better because me and you between us have had two straight winning weeks.

So if you add it all up, that's four straight winning weeks between the two of us. And yeah, if you're watching on YouTube, you can see our season total. We're still under 500, but we're getting close. And the reality is we're on the right track right now, another two in one week. And if I had just stuck with my CX, I was worried about them last week. They were my, they would have been my third game. I got right. But I got Atlanta and the Rams right.

You got Miami and New England right last week. Where are you going first this week? Three games every week against the spread. So I'm doing this more for the comedic effect than anything because I know that there is a team that has really like, you've been chasing this team all season long and they have done you dirty. And my model finally picked them to win. So I, and I know we did one of those losses has been this stupid team. However, I think that the Jets, I think that they win straight up.

Wow. Which means that the Jets are, let's see. the, what's the, one point favorite. Thank you. I didn't know if it was one or one and a half. It doesn't really matter. Oh, no, they're one and a half point underdogs. Sorry about that.

I think they started as favorites. Right. People bet it the other way. We're taping this. They are one and a half point underdogs to the Carolina Panthers at three and three. Okay. So whatever, whatever side of it says the Jets win. I'll take whatever side of this.

Yes. So even if they lost by one, then I'm still good. You would be good in this scenario. That's right. I stopped chasing them. two weeks ago. I finally got off that narcotic. It felt great, although they did cover last week against the Broncos.

That game was hard to watch. It was a hard watch. You were in person. You got to London on Friday evening and then we're gone Monday morning. That is a quick turnaround. And the Jets, while you were there, they left

Europe with less passing yards than when they arrived. That's not a good sign. and I love the season. Okay, so, but I did. So give me the Jets case, the real football case. Two things really stand out in this matchup against the Panthers. The Panthers who have not brought a lot of pressure all season.

Now, I watched a breaking point from the sideline there. Those teammates were not happy from the Jets. Garrett Wilson. So now we see something where, I mean, Justin Fields was holding onto the ball for far too long. He should have been sacked nine times. That's a ridiculous number. So they're going to have to change some things. It is time.

It is hard to lose all of your games in the season. This is a good opportunity to leverage Breece Hall's effectiveness in the run game. He is tied for the second most explosive runs with 14 in the NFL. That's a huge deal. On the other side, Jermaine Johnson being back, that is a huge upgrade. Michael Clemens and Jermaine Johnson, it's two ends of the spectrum. And I don't mean to be mean to him because he is, I'm sure he's a very nice man. I don't know him.

He's a professional. He's made a lot of money doing what he does. Michael Clemens. Correct. Yes. But he can't set the edge. Big upgrade for Jermaine Johnson. Yeah, he looked good last week.

Jermaine Johnson is a big deal. And in this one where I don't think there's, sure, Tederoa McVillan is great, but this is not the same. You know, the Broncos defense is really scary. Like, you've got to, I mean, that's a hard defense to navigate no matter who you are. I just think that the balance point of this will be better.

I'm hoping you're right. I'm staying far away from that one. I kind of just think it's funny more than anything else. Like, I'm here for the comedy as well. I don't have a, a hot take on that game at all. I actually really like four games this week. So it's very difficult because we have to narrow it down by one.

So I might go through all four and you can help me maybe cancel one out. But I'm going to start with Arizona plus six and a half hosting the Green Bay Packers. Who do you think the quarterback is? I think it's probably Jacoby Berset. But Kyler Murray was at practice. on Wednesday. Generally, if a starting quarterback is limited at practice on a Wednesday, he will start that game. I'm not worried about who the quarterback is. I might prefer Jacoby Brissette. Their offense looked good last week, more under center runs. I have a greater

output for Arizona with Jacoby Brissette than Kyler Murray as well. Just so we're there. Okay, so they have a buy next week and just reading between the lines with the national insiders. it sounded like they would prefer to rest Kyler through the by to make sure that he stays 100%. We will see. But the number here is too big for me either way. Okay, nobody's beaten the Cardinals by more than four so far. And they've played some good teams.

They played Seattle. They played San Francisco. They played Indianapolis. They actually have a plus scoring differential on the season. They are the example of what the NFL is all about. this year, which is one score games and a big fat middle. They are more like a three and three team, okay? Even their, even their wins this year are by one score.

So they played in seven, six straight one score games. Meanwhile, the Packers, I think they should be one of the best teams in the league, but they haven't really performed like it on a consistent basis. They're like seventh or eighth in DVOA overall. I just think this Cardinals team needs this game so bad. and I do sometimes go with desperation. They're at home. They're before the buy.

It's a big moment for them. They have their offensive line in place for the first time, really, since the very beginning of last year. I think their defense is well coached. And show me the Green Bay game other than against Cincinnati. They didn't even really do it against Cincinnati, where they're, like, running away. They did against lions.

Yeah, that's a long time ago. Yeah. That's week one. So on the road, I do not trust them to go and get this done. I just think it's going to be a close game at the end. Yeah, no, I'm with you. Okay. I have the same.

I have the same. I do have the Packers winning. The Packers, I have them winning, but I have Arizona keeping it close. I thought for our show game debut of taking the Cardinals straight up. I just can imagine it that they have a win that turns their season around. But I don't need the win here. It's like why I talked about last week when I went with Atlanta. I was like, I don't need the win.

Love it. They just need to cover. And same thing with the Patriots, a couple of weeks. ago, maybe they will win. So if you're into that, whatever, whatever the number is, if you're into that sort of thing, I, uh, I wouldn't, I wouldn't tell you not to do that. So Arizona plus six and a half is, is my first one. All right, you're up next. Okay. Um, what's the number you're seeing for Jacksonville and it, and the Rams? The Rams are favorite. I see three. Yes. Okay. I think Jacksonville wins. Wow. Straight up.

Straight up. Now tell me. Interesting. Are you really going to love, uh, NFL daily forever, you know? Yep. Oh, oh, oh. Okay. Yeah. We're old. We're, we're, we're, we're really. We're old. If anyone gets that, congratulations. People are going to get it. It's a popular song. It's a great song. A couple of things. One, I don't think Pooka Nukuwa will play. And I don't think that's accurately priced into this line. So without Puka Nukua, the math becomes quite different. Matthew Stafford's passerating when targeting Devonte Adams or everyone else, just a lot worse. Puka is so important to this offense. And not to say that Sean McVeigh can't figure some things out, but the Jags defense is pretty good. Now,

without Devin Lloyd, who is the league's interception leader, but they've got a number of other pieces that are also pretty good, even though they're not getting a ton of pressure up front, the things that they're doing on the back end are helping them out significantly. So, and the Jags, by the way, like London's their second home. They have, this is, we, we talk about it all the time. They've played 14 games abroad or something. This will be their 14th game. They're 7 and 6, all in London. I think that they have a better, like, like the, the day they get the, the, the schedule is more set. The Rams don't get there till Saturday. Do you know how hard that is? I mean, I just did that and I'm like, I'm a regular old analyst. I'm not trying to run at people and hit things and be violent.

I was just trying to get to London, you know? Right. Knowing that organization, there's certainly one that is into sleep science and everything like that. And I think there's a lot of disagreeing theories of what's better for your body clock. They determined that staying in Baltimore all week. They're not doing any media over there. They're arriving, like you said, Saturday morning and then we'll play 24 hours later. That is the latest any teams ever showed up. Plenty of teams have showed up on Friday.

The Chiefs, I think, traditionally show up late in the week. Did you feel weird getting off the plane? Absolutely. It takes, it's a problem. If anything, and maybe this is what the science is saying, I feel better for the first 24 to 36 hours. Maybe it's like, it's almost still like a rush. and then it sets in. That is difficult.

I am with you. I had the Jaguars covering the spread. It's not one of the games I consider. I have the Rams winning, so I don't feel strong about that game. I do wonder if this Jaguars offensive line is not as good as we thought. It's not.

They played some good opponents for them, like easy opponents early. And then last week, they did not look good. They were without their center. I think that could be a big deal if he doesn't return, but we don't know that for sure.

I think both things are true. Yeah. I don't think it's as good as the, I think it was like three sacks through four weeks, something crazy. It's either four sacks or three weeks or three sacks or fours. Either way. And they had two games where they like didn't give up a pressure. That's right.

Including against the fact. I think that's, that was a little fugeezy, but I also think that it's a little bit false to say that they're as bad as they looked against the Seahawks as well. So I think both things are true. I mostly think that the ability for Travis E.T.N. To get some chunk yardish plays.

I know he was held to just, what, 27 yards last week against Seahawks. That's very different defense. They don't have the back end pieces on the Rams that are quite as great at helping out, especially in that kind of run situation coverage than they do on compared to the Seahawks. So the Rams are, they're just a different, they're just a different team. Yeah, you attack them on the ground. I think the Jaguars have an advantage there that the Rams, one of the best rushing teams in the league.

The Jaguars may be a little better set up to, to stop the run. That's close to a coin flip game for me. I am glad that we're sending all our UK and London residents. better game this week because the two games overseas so far really all three if you if you go back to dublin have been very close down to the wire and they've all had moments but that i do feel a little bad about sending broncos jets over there and so i think we're wrapping up the london portion with the best game yet two good four and two teams okay like i said i have four picks you're going to help me cancel one out the first one was arizona the second one is such a

funky line, Tampa Bay plus five and a half, that I feel like Vegas is trying to get everyone to go with the bucks. Or maybe they don't think like that, like Patrick says. And maybe that's just what the numbers say. And I know if you peek beneath the hood, the bucks haven't been as good really as the record would indicate. But, you know, they are like number one in a lot of people's power rankings. They're number, literally the number one seat in the NFC right now, I think for a reason. And that's that they're getting better, they're actually getting healthier. And the reason I love this, and man, I have a hard time even picking the Lions to win straight up, although I did, but I have it as a one-point game. As the Lions injuries, it's a disaster week for them. They don't have their

two starting cornerbacks, and they have to go up against Baker Mayfield, and they don't have Brian Branch, who's suspended. And oh, by the way, Kirby Joseph doesn't look 100%. He's not really at practice. Taylor Decker, the left tackle, might return to practice. He's up in the air as we're taping put it all up there and like man you're giving me five and a half points for one of the best teams in the NFL I love that one I'm taking the bucks yeah I have I have a three point win for Detroit so I'm on the same side as you about that one I did not I think that it was the combination of I mean Emeka Abuka is not playing for sure yeah Mike Evans I think he's back I'm gonna assume Evans is priced is into my pricing as back just on the optimism that Todd Bulls is saying

Sure, but is he 100% like back or back? Right, because Chris Godwin was back a couple weeks ago and then he really wasn't. You know, like so I guess, he's not back anymore by the way. No, he's unback. He went back to being unback, whatever. They're thin at receiver. Yeah, they've shown that they can overcome that. Of course, but, but it helps against the, that helps the lions because, I mean, look,

what we saw from the lions last week against Patrick Mahomes was getting crushed when Patrick used an intermediate pass. Just death by a thousand paper cuts. Right? Like, or mini-mediate passes are the paper cuts here. But I don't think that, see, the difference is, is Baker's ability to have, you know, there's no Xavier Worthy plus Hollywood Brown plus Travis Kelsey plus. They just don't have that depth. Can I give you a Ted Johnson?

How about a little? You try to sell me on a Ted Johnson. How about like an aged 19 or maybe 2000? K-Dotten. 19 version of Sterling Shepard. Love it. Kind of like popping up. I hear you.

But that's why I took the Lions ultimate. to win. And I trust their organization. They haven't lost two straight for three years now. They can lose. Trust me. I've seen it. You don't think that matters, but I do think like great teams, great organizations. It's tough for them to

lose twice in row. I think they have a big time home field advantage. And that's why I think it's a coin flip. I'd absolutely pick the bucks if it was in Tampa. But since it's in Detroit, I'm taking the lines to win, but I wouldn't be surprised with bucks went straight up. Doesn't matter. Five and a half points is a lot. It's a lot. It's like they're begging us,

I'm a little, it does feel like a little wary, right? I'm a little wary of it. Come here, a little kid. Here's some candy for you. Right, but I feel good about it. So bucks plus five and a half. Let's go with your third pick. I'm going for some symmetry here.

I'm going to end this one with the Denver Broncos. And I think that they win by more than seven. I think that as good as we've seen the Giants and I, I know, it's been fun. I know they just beat the Eagles. I did watch it. I saw it. I saw everything. And I saw what happened against the jets.

But ahead of the game, all of those Denver players who had, been a week on the East Coast in Philadelphia ahead of going to they were just over it and not to say that that's like that you can't factor that into the math but what I'm looking at here is jk. Dobbins another guy who's created explosive runs that is where the giants can get got I also watch these screen passes and what did the Denver Broncos do screen screen screen you want to do you want to yeah let's run a screen a linebacker stink for the giants screen screen screen screen and you know who gives up a ton of yards to screen passes the giants so as good as they're front is, I think that the O line plus the screen pass, plus the run game for the

Broncos, and plus how nasty that Denver defense is there, that defense is firing on all cylinders. Nick Benito is, I'm not suggesting that the front isn't great for the giants, but the back end and the linebacker level, nowhere near the caliber of what the Broncos are bringing. Love it. What does your computer model do with extra rest? Does it matter at all? Depends. It depends on the extra rest. right? So the giants in this case have four extra days rest. Do they get bleak neighbors back? No. Oh, okay. Now that would be a difference maker.

He's going to be out the rest of the year. That's priced into all their numbers. They get the extra rest. And Denver's coming all the way back from London. Sometimes, you know, I don't know if you can factor that in. But that does seem like a lot. I saw something for what it's worth. They're the first team like in Mountain or Pacific to ever come back from London and play the next week. It's usually up to the teams if they want to take the buy the next week after going overseas.

They do not have to buy this week. And if you're into like this sort of thing, they're honoring Demer, Demerius Thomas in this one. And you know he's like the heartbeat of. I'm just saying. So if you're looking at these external factors, it's alumni weekend.

D.T. is getting his, whatever the version of the Broncos, Ring of Honor is, whatever that is. So I've kept this in my pocket, but I disagree. I strongly disagree, but I'm happy that you took the Broncos minus seven, because what it did for me is it made up my mind which pick of mine I'm going to eliminate because Giants plus seven was one of my four picks I really liked.

And I want us both to shine right now. We are both on a winning streak, despite one of your only two losses in the last two weeks combined was when we went head to head. I don't want to guarantee one of us is getting a loss when we each had winning weeks back-to-back weeks. So I will just put that in my pocket. That's just an extra pick. Everyone who's listening knows I feel differently.

And I will make the case just briefly, which is, okay, I made the rest case, which I think matters a little bit to me. They both just played Philadelphia, if you're going to do the Pythagorean theorem. I mean, who looked, you know, it was like the biggest thing ever when Denver went into,

Where's Jalen Carter? How do you factor him not playing? Okay, that's fair. He's like, I don't like this turf. I'm just saying they both are feeling great after beating the Eagles. I mean, the Giants looked even more impressive beating the Eagles. Sure. I liked what I saw out of the Giants defense last week.

I thought they were more creative, really confusing. Were they more creative or? I think they stole some stuff from the Broncos because they were showing more of like this. Tell me what you think about that Eagles offense being creative. And I will wait. Right. Fair. I will wait.

But what they did was they showed some of the simulated pressures that they wanted. They showed some post-snap movement. Like the things that we haven't seen out of Shane Bowen and that Giants defense very often. I thought they did well, like some run blitzes, all this stuff. I was like, okay, that's great. And then the bigger factor here is, you know, since Jackson Dart took over, yeah, they're two and one. And they've covered twice. The Broncos, and I was thinking about this because they are not.

Who would they lose to? uh the saints and you know why five straight turnovers you know you know what happens when you have a lot of pressure like the most pressure in the league yeah that could happen you know how many times the broncos have covered all year because i was thinking about it they they have not really had many convincing games and that's why when i see seven and i wouldn't be that shocked if the underdog wins the game which i personally would not be that shocked this week obviously you would then i just like taking that many points the Broncos have only covered twice all year, you know, once was as the underdog to the Eagles, which, by the way, was my pick that week.

The other time was against the Bengals. Yeah, you pick them straight up. But they've, they've had some spots where they're heavy favorites, like against the Titans and other times where they're favorites and they haven't won. So I just thought, if you look at these two teams, I think they're closer than people think, but you disagree. And the math, the model has been right again and again over the years for good reasons. So I'm happy to just have that be my, my, just put it.

Put it in the pocket. So what's the official? Oh, that's right. I need a. Your official third one. It's Chiefs minus 11 and a half. It's not fun. No,

that's fun of me last week for switching into like Rams or like, that's not exciting. And they're minus seven and a half against the Ravens. It's all exciting when, you know, winning's exciting. Yes. So to me, this is just an old school Kansas City team.

You probably don't have these numbers right in front of you because I didn't ask you ahead of time. But just do you have an overall efficiency metric for offense and defense? and defense because, okay, what is the chiefs right now on offense? Well, it factors in the whole season. Are you talking on a week? I mean even the whole season, a whole season. Yeah, well, I'm guessing it's really high.

For what it's worth, I'll let you look it up. I'll look at it, yeah. DVOA has them as the number two offense now in the league and the number 18 defense. No, that's perfect. And like what is the defense? Somewhere more in the middle, I would guess. It's an old school chiefs team is my. After last week, it's 14.

Yeah. So these are the chief teams we grew up. You know, we were just little kids when they were like this. Little whippersnappers. When they were going up and down the field and Patrick Mahomes was winning his first MVP. It's an old school type of chief's team that I can recognize. A great offensive line, and I'm maybe a good to great offensive line. Mahomes making plays on the move.

Mahomes making plays down the field. And then team speed. You are taking Juju Smith-Schuster off the field, going for, from probably about 40 snaps to about 12. He'll be in there for run blocking. And then you are inserting Rishi Rice into those snaps, almost the same role, who looked fantastic by the end of last year,

who I just think is going to take off and you have him and worthy and when they want to use Thornton on the field, all at the same time, man, this is a fast defense with a lot of pass pro against a Raiders team that just can't protect, forget it. Put up third. 35 to 14.

I apologize to Gino Smith, but I just think this Raiders seems one of the worst teams in the league. Since 2018, the win margin averaged for the Chiefs, 13.3 points. So I'm actually with you. I have a 13 point win for them. Let's go. Rishie Rice, this was interesting.

You know how conservative my model tends to be. Yes. Well, I looked at it like without and with Rishi Rice, just because I was curious what difference he would make in this one. And it's one full point. That's a lot for a receiver. That's a lot for me. Like, that's like a, that's, I mean, there's some quarterbacks that don't give a one point.

That's great. That's crazy. But it's also the matchup, right? The matchup where you now have, you know, the secondary of the Raiders is one where it's not maybe the strongest. Yeah, you just talked about the intermediate game last week for the Chiefs. And you can, you can imagine the safeties, the linebackers for the Raiders getting picked on. All right. Your picks are Denver plus seven or minus seven rather.

I was about to say, I'll take Denver plus seven all day. There we go. Yep. You have the Broncos as a touchdown favorite at home. You have the Jets as a one and a half point underdog at home. Just that's spicy. And then you have the Jaguars in London. Technically a home game.

But we know that it's a neutral game, I would say, for this. Although the Jaguars will have more fans than the Rams there. I don't know. I think those fans are hilarious. I was a big fan. Like, they're just fans of the whole sport. The songs, all of it. You know, you've been.

The fans are great. Fans are awesome. I've been to a lot of the international games now. The Dublin crowd was different because it was a Steelers home game. It was really crazy to see a Steelers home game in Dublin, but so many Dublin Steelers fans and so many people just traveled for that game. Patrick Queen even said it afterwards. They were louder throughout than the home crowd in Pittsburgh.

But this week, it'll just be a great celebration of football. My picks, you cross me out from going Giants plus seven. I don't want to go against you. So that's just an extra one. But I go, Chiefs minus 11 and a half. bucks plus five and a half and the Cardinals. The other one, just keep it an eye on it. The Cardinals, you're getting five and a half.

Six and a half for the Cardinals. Do not take that point away. Sorry, no, no, no. I thought it was five and a half, so six and a half is even better. That's a nice, juicy one. I was hoping it'd get up to seven. It did not. I was keeping an eye on that Washington game,

but now the injury report's so weird with Debo and Terry McLaren. I think that whatever the number is, whatever the number is, though, I think that it's too low. I think that's going to be like to the moon game. Oh, in terms of the over under. I got you. Yeah, I agree with you on that as well. So just keep an eye on the injury report. I do kind of like the commanders.

All right, that is it for our week seven picks. We're making some progress here in terms of the season. And we're making progress in terms of our picks. We will be back Sunday night. Myself, Patrick Claibon, Jordan Roderig, and Nick Shook for your week seven recap. We will see you that. Hey everybody, Daniel Jeremiah here. And I'm Bucky Brooks.

On Move the Six, we take you inside the game from breaking down college prospects and NFL rookies to evaluating team building philosophies, coaching trends, and how front offices construct winning rosters. We study the tape, talk to decision makers, and give you a perspective you won't find anywhere else. It's everything you need to understand the why behind what happens on Sunday. Don't miss it. Listen to the Move the Six podcast on the I-Hour

Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Marcus Grant. And I'm Michael F. Lerreau, and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast. Ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Then you need the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast, your ultimate source for player news, draft tips, and winning strategies. Whether you're a rookie manager or a fantasy vet, we've got the insight to help you crush your opponents.

Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football. podcast on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Toyota, the official automotive partner of the NFL, visit Toyota.com slash NFL now to learn more. This is an IHeart podcast.