Trump Caves to Putin as Democrats Surge Before Midterms
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01:33And I'm Jessica Tarlov.Welcome to our love.live stream or live every Monday on YouTube and substack. We'll take your questions at the end of the show,so please drop them in the chat as we go. Tomorrow, we're doing a live stream with Democraticcandidate for Texas Governor Gina Hinojosa. She's in a virtual tie with incumbent Republican GregAbbott right now in the state of Texas, as our listeners are likely aware, is a huge bellwetherfor whether or not we're really going to see a blue tsunami. Please subscribe to Propgeeplus andPropgime.com, and you can join us live with Gina tomorrow, Tuesday, October 20,
02:0620th at 10.30 a.m. Eastern Standard time. All right, let's bust into it. We're officially 15 days out fromElection Day and early voting starts today in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, South Carolina, and Texas.Here are three numbers we're watching. A new Ipsos poll puts Democrats up eight points on the congressional ballot.The same poll has Trump's disapproval rating sitting at 66%. There's also a new Wall Street Journal poll that finds Democrats aren't sold on a leftward shift.In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is up. Cali gives him a 66% chance of taking back the seat. And in Michigan,Calshahsha gives Abdul El-Sayed a 68% chance of winning. Take us around the map here.Thoughts on these recent poll numbers, Jess?Like, where in the world is Carmen San Diego for elections, Jessica Tarlow Edition?
02:57There were so many new polls that came out this weekend. It was overwhelming. The overarchingmessage was that this was really good stuff for Democrats. I'm going to spend some time in theWashington Post poll. Trump's disapproval like in Ipsos at 66%, which is very, very high, especiallygoing into an election. You don't want to see that. But probably the most important finding,and they did one of those big charts going through every issue that someone might be thinking aboutwhen they go in to vote. So health care, education, cost of living, inflation, Iran, they pulledtransgender issues, which I want to talk about, the economy, corruption, taxes, immigration,and crime, only one issue were Republicans up, and that was on crime. And I have said this on the pod
03:48numerous times. I talk about it at Fox regularly. It is important. How crime is one of the mostimportant issues to people. It's how you feel, right? When you walk outside and you thinkis something going to happen to be, is something going to happen to my kids? I live in a big city.so do you, the idea that there's still toothpaste locked up at drugstores that has, it weighs onyou, right, where you think like you can't just walk in and go about your business as normal.I don't think it swings the election, but I also don't think it's something to poo-poo,and you have to pay attention to it.But the fact that Democrats are up on everything else is enormously important, you know,
04:26double on health care, huge margins on inflation, anything having to do with the economy,which is a very big deal.But this transgender issues thing stuck out to mebecause they obsessively talk about it.Like trying to relive the Kamala is for they,them, you know, I'm for you ad from Trump at the end.And Democrats with a nine point edgewhen it comes to handling transgender issues.
04:50And I think that speaks to two things.One, the economy is so badthat people don't have time to be distractedby what they see as kind of ancillary social issues.Because the second piece of it is I think that Democrats have actually finally figured out how to talk about this issue, which should not have been minimized as a nothing, right?Just saying, like, I'm not even going to waste my time on this.It was something that you actually had to have an opinion on.You had to come out there and say, I understand there might be a biological fairness question in competitive sports, but I will not let you trample on civil rights because of your bigotry.
05:28And I feel like we've nailed.nailed it, like landed the plane there. And that was exciting for me to see, at least as someonewho talks to Republicans on the regular who are bringing up transgender issues. So corruption,which will probably be the number one issue, if not the number two issue in this election.It got to number one in the new Fox News poll, which has never happened before. And this is abipartisan problem. And I was looking at the readouts from,GOP focus groups. And for the first time, they were hearing that when you, because of the risinggas prices, that everyone's having a tough time economically, the voters were pointing to, quote,
06:12corrupt politicians and billionaires, which you expect to hear out of a Democratic focus group,the focus on the billionaire class, the elites, the Epstein class, as John Ossoff puts it.So you're seeing an across-the-board revulsion at the level of corruption in our political ranks.72% of independence think Donald Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself, and even one-third of Republican voters feel that way.So you have to land the plane with this because they do also think that Democratic politicians are corrupt, but they are seeing the grift out of Donald Trump and his close associates, and they're repulsed by it.I'm just curious. So Sherrod Brown, not a surprise.It's a right state, though. I mean, he's running a perfect campaign, though.I just wanted to read. He's so good. Also, I thought it was hilarious how many people in Ohio still thought that he was a senator. So people should pay more attention to their politics. But there are these quotes from GOP consultants on John Houston, who's the sitting senator. John Houston looks like a quarterback. He talks like a quarterback, but he acts like a water boy. And another one said, when the story is written on this campaign cycle, Sherrod Brown will have run the best race in the country. John Houston may have run the worst campaign in the country.
07:30I don't know. I would pick Tala Rica on Paxson for best and worst. So Ipsos with Democrats plus eight with Trump at 66 disapproval, that's not a head. That's not a headwind. It's a hurricane warning. And this, I mean, this is such an anxious time for us as Democrats, because it feels like nothing less than a bloodbath is going to be disappointing, right? It's now the expectation, literally up until,two months six weeks ago, the narrative was, we're going to take the House, we're just going totry and get back a couple, flip a couple Senate seats. Now, Calci is saying that the House, 40 to 50 seatsand a two-thirds likelihood that we retake the Senate. And I look at the map, and I think, okay,I'm more nervous about Maine and Michigan than I think most people are. What states are in playas of today that weren't just a week or two weeks ago? Has anything all of a sudden gone totoss up that was leaning Republican?Probably Kansas is the one to really focus on for that.
08:37Reverend Hamilton is running an incredible campaign, and Roger Marshall is stepping in it.He's having to feign interest in, you know, pulling back ice, for instance.He is not landed the plan on economic messaging, though in his defense, I don't know howyou would be able to do this, considering the fact that the administration,is causing a lot of this economic strife,and Roger Marshall is a vote yes on all of that.So I would put Kansas as the surprise, though,I mean, maybe I'm just, you know,
09:12Democratic bedwether type, which I definitely am.I'm not even thinking about 40 to 50 seats.It's like I would like something, you know,too big to rig, but I basically think the Senate,you're in toss-up territory, which, as Democrats,that's a good place to be if you're talking about states like Texas and Iowa,and Alaska, which are supposed to be so red that you think you can't even get close.And now we have some early voting trends, which I think are really interesting to highlight.
09:41So there was this big panic because Michigan started when people were saying, oh, this is not looking good.Like we're not seeing the Gen Z turnout that we would expect.We're not seeing patterns in past elections when Democrats in Michigan have performed well.And Zachary DeNino, who I think is fantastic, elections analysts and modeler, I made the point, which I think is important to keep in mind that Naheat was drawing on specifically from Nevada for this, that the early voting trends suggest that concerns about the USPS handling of mail ballots are changing how some Democrats vote.So they're going and dropping it off, voting in person.the comparisons to 2024 might get a bit fuzzy based on that.My anxiety about Michigan remains, to your point, on Maine and Michigan.Early voting in North Carolina looks really good.
10:37Day one of early voting in 2024 was D plus 1.7.Day one of early voting, 26, was D plus 27.4.Also, they're looking at where these low propensity voters are going if they're comingout and voting. It is looking good in North Carolina and in Maine racial and geographic trendssuggesting the similar pattern to Georgia, which doesn't do it by voter registration, actually.So they look at demographics. And so Georgia early voting in 2024, day one, 30% black,2026, 36.6% black. And the exception to all of the good news is what's going on in Florida,where it looks like it could be even more heavily Republican than in 2024.
11:25Yeah, so one of the keys, when we talk about early voting,the election isn't November the 3rd anymore.It's a two-week window.And the window opened today.The polls are open today, so to speak.My son, I got so excited the other night, I just recognized.I'm like, oh, my gosh, my son can vote.If you're like me and you think I haven't really given a lot,
11:50I've benefited more, I've taken more than I've given. I think this is a really nice time to try and get everyone in your family, at least registered and just start talking about voting and reminding people that voting has started. I was very interested in the Wall Street Journal article, and I'm curious to get your thoughts on Democrats not sold on a leftward shift. My sense is, and I think the Democrats, I'm often very critical of our own party. I think the Democrats have done a good job recognizing that Americans aren't asking them to go left or right. It's asking them to go forward.on affordability, confidence, and try and stay away as much as you can from the lectures.And it's almost like absolutely go out there with our messaging, but everyone keeps talking abouta blue wave. I've said, this is not a blue wave, this is a red rib tide. I just think Trump andgas prices are doing our work for us, and you have to show up, be thoughtful, not sound tooindignant or elite or get too caught in social issues. But just to talk about the economy, affordability,and kind of hit it straight down, straight down the middle.Let's move on and start with the Russia-Ukraine war,
12:58which I think is going to go down as one of the biggest stains in America history,specifically our abandonment of a country that is fighting for the West right nowwith absolutely no help from the U.S. or little help.Trump says he's waiving sanctions on Russiabecause he's negotiating peace and doesn't want Moscow to walk away.That's after he signed an executive order waiving new sanctionsand tariffs required under law.he previously signed just two days before they were set to take effect. Meanwhile, Putin has proposed a
13:26meeting with Trump and Xi Jinping next month to discuss Ukraine in a bid to negotiate an end of thefour-year war on terms favorable to Moscow. Trump has also criticized Zelensky for striking Russian oilrefineries, blaming the attacks for driving up diesel prices. Over the weekend, Ukraine launchedits biggest drone attacks against Russia this year, hitting an oil export terminal in St. Petersburg.Just, do we buy any of this justification from Trump on going back on Russian sanctions that he agreed to previously?No, absolutely not.And we're not big.Trump is a Russian asset group.
13:59You know, that's, I don't want to revisit 2016 in that sense.But he is doing absolutely everything that Vladimir Putin wants.I am sure that he's sitting there in Moscow thinking, like, I didn't realize I could get this lucky at this point.And the narrative around the oil issues being about Ukraine and just ignoring what's going on in the Middle East, like the Strait of Hormuz is the problem.Zelensky is not at this point.And they have admitted as much.I'm just horrified by all of this.The idea that Trump might consider, I mean, it's Putin's proposal.
14:39We'll see if he says yes, but that he should stand shoulder to shoulder with Putin and she to talk about Ukraine.you don't invite Zelensky to come or even a representative of Zelensky's government.Like if you hate the guy and Zelensky has shown himself to be someone with an enormous amount offlexibility about this, call elections.When we can guarantee that people can get to the polls, that's fine.He's not attached to being president in the same way that someone like Donald Trump isor certainly Putin, she, Netanyahu, who we also have to talk about.Like, this feels like really getting to criminal stuff in the level of,
15:16betrayal. Big op-eds, Wall Street Journal editorial board to Russia with love, signed Donald.And they write, when the election is over, there needs to be a bipartisan reckoning for Mr.Trump's budding alliance with the Kremlin against Ukraine, Europe, and American interests.Andy McCarthy with similar sentiment in the National Review. I get it that these are like normieRepublicans and not whatever this MAGA wing actually represents, but this is harrowing stuff,what we're doing to Ukraine right now. Yeah, as Democrats, we like to think of ourselves as being morethoughtful and empathetic to the other side. I think Donald Trump, the president, and Elon Muskare traitors to the West. And I really do hope there's a reckoning here. When we think about how many people
16:01have risks or given their lives trying to ensure the safety of Europe, or how many Americans havedied at the hands of people who've been armed by Russia, if you think about the majority of themajority of cyber attacks come from one place, Russia, if you look at the fact that Tucker Carlson'sengagement declined 72 percent the day after the Yandex server farms were bombed in Russia.We are now allies with arguably the biggest threat to democracy globally.We've decided to ally with them.And it's also, it's not actually, that's the wrong word.President Trump has decided to ally with Russia.
16:43The American people are still very much on the side of Ukraine.And we have minority rule right now where our president, under the cover of darkness,is coordinating or conspiring with Elon Musk to turn off battlefield technologythat results in the deaths of Ukrainian citizens.If they can't stay on the offensive here, they go on the defense,and Russia is going to continue to take out civilian infrastructure and bomb civilian targets.this is what the Ukrainian army here has done is basically they are NATO. They are the ones protectingthe West right now. And for Trump and Musk to ally with Russia and not give Ukraine any warning
17:28that they're turning off Star Shield and Starlink and then them pointing at each other like thecowards they are. Oh, it's the government, it's President Trump. Look at him. Talk to him. Oh, I haveno idea what happened. I do see the Republican.beginning to find their backbone around this issue. I can't even imagine. I want Senator Rubio,excuse me, Secretary Ruby, to run for president just so we can play all the clips of him talkinga big game about Russia being our enemy for the last 20 years. This was his signature foreign policy.Russia is our, not our adversary, is our enemy. And now he's Secretary of State and has decidedto ally with our enemy. This is, in 2025, by 2025, we had over, the U.S. had over 6,400 sanctions on Russian
18:16entities and individuals. In the first 10 days after the invasion, Russia drew more designationsthan Iran had accumulated in a decade. And Trump just waived the new ones two days before theytook effect on a law he signed. The entire West spent a decade building a fence around Russia,and Trump is sneaking out to the fence in the middle of the night and taking it off its hinges.In addition, it's just so incredibly ridiculous that these imports are going to have any effect,other than to try and just say, hey, we're supporting Russia and we want Zelensky to come to the table,which means surrender. There's no negotiating here. When you have a quote-unquote,you know, yelta-like convocation and you don't invite Ukraine to the table,
19:03what you're saying is, okay, Ukraine's on the menu.I just love the notion they think they're going to negotiate somethingwithout Ukraine at the table.You don't, in addition, you don't negotiate peaceby removing your leverage before the meeting.Any peace here has to involve one thing,Putin withdrawing or significantly scaling back.And Trump is so fucking stupid,
19:25he thinks by emboldening the aggressor,that's going to result in leverage leading to peace.Right now, the Trump,Trump administration is not trying to negotiate a peace. It's trying to schedule the next warwith a pause for Russia to rearm and then decide who they're going after next, Poland or Finland.The Putin-Shee Trump summit is just two autocrats and a guy who admires them, deciding the fate ofthe West and democracy, whereas the real warrior at the table or hasn't been invited to thetable, it's not a peace summit, it's a closing. It's absolutely insane.
20:03Any thoughts on this or the notion that he's blaming Ukraine for diesel prices?Support for the show comes from Upside.You work hard for your money, so why not make your money work a little harder for you?Especially when it comes to the things you might spend money on every week,gas, groceries, and eating out.Those everyday purchases can add up fast.But with Upside, you can earn cash back on things you're already buying,helping you get a little more out of every dollar.
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21:33Shop online and get the same low, no frills prices delivered. Get your firstyear of PC Express Pass for just $2.50 a month. Learn more at no-frills.ca. Well, I'm glad that you brought upMarco Rubio because I feel like that interview that he gave where he said no one, nobody orderedthe Star Lake Speed to slow down. It sort of happened is just so beneath him. And it's interestingbecause I was thinking, you know, looking ahead to 2028 and who might be getting in on theRepublican side. I know a lot of people are more moderate, even, you know, left-meaning moderates,but who felt like Marco Rubio was an acceptable answer to all of that, like that J.D. Vance,not only rubber-stamping Trump when he used to think he was America's Hitler, but that he just
22:27didn't have the gravitas and he didn't have the smarts to do this, right? And one of the biggestplus points for Rubio has always been his foreign policy.expertise and that he showed a tremendous amount of backbone when it came to knowing who our friendsare and who our enemies are. And I think that that statement, it sort of happened about something thatdid result in deaths. That is what happened in Keefe. Civilians died because Star Shield Speed wasshut down or slowed down, I should say. And I think that it is going to dog him if he does end upwanting to run in 2028, which I imagine is the case. I'm curious what you think of Zelensky'sPR strategy now, because there's a market shift. So he is doing interviews with everybody, right?
23:18He's a call me. I'll sit down and I will talk to you. And not only that, I'm not sugarcoding any ofthis anymore. You know, he's saying straight up, the U.S. is going to be on the side of Russia,which is what we're seeing here. I mean, they're talking about not only cuttingour own aid, which was only manifesting, by the way, in allowing them to be able to buy weapons.We act like, or our administration, the government acts like we're gifting them these things.We're not at all at this point.And Europe is the one that's actually paying for Ukraine's defense.And I'm glad that European leaders are speaking out about that.
23:57But, I mean, we're talking about halting the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weaponsso that they'll stop striking Russian energy infrastructure.I mean, we're stripping them of all of this.And I saw that Darlene Graham, to her credit,actually said that, you know, she wasn't supportive of the presidentby undoing the Lindsey Graham sanctions,which was, you know, a marquee accomplishment for himafter decades of being very clear about who Russia is
24:28and the threats that they pose not only to their immediate neighbors,but all of Western democracy.And Trump is going to go to South Carolinaat a campaign for Darlene Graham.And I'm curious as to seeif there's any back and forth about this.But do you think it's smart of Zelenskyto be going this hard, this publicly,
24:47or is that going to inflame Trump furtherand you're going to end up in, you know,him screaming at Zelenskyabout his outfit again,a la that oval office meeting?But what's changed is thatI remember when,So Gardner required my last room L2, and I had three different bosses.
25:06One was Me Tooed.The second one had an emotional breakdown and left the firm, and the third one was firedshortly after I left.But I used to call them once a week.And my last boss, after I sold, I was, this is going to come as a real shocker, butI wasn't great in a big company.And I left after 14 months.And he would keep calling me and telling me what to do or not to do with my next business.
25:31And finally I said, boss, I no longer work for you.Like, when you're in town, call me for dinner.I'd love to get together, but I don't really care what you think about what I should be doingor not doing professionally right now.And here's the advantage for Zelensky when we've essentially abandoned them.Honeybadger don't give us shit.He can go on media and say, yeah, they've abandoned us.Yeah, when we have people in the field and all of a sudden our targeting systems or our defense
26:00systems don't work because Starlink has quote unquote, it just happened to slow down, right?It just happened.Oops.It just slowed down.Yeah.It just happened to slow down.He's like, bitch, I don't care.The nice thing, the advantage to Zelenskyy of America no longer providing money is that, and they
26:22are still providing intelligence, is that quite frankly, he can stick up the middle fingerand be very honest and say directly to him.Americans in the West, we are doing our best.And only that, with the support of Europe who has stepped up, and if America were toprovide, continue to provide intelligence, we're on the right side.And I'm not talking about morally or ethically or defending the West or democracy.I'm just talking about backing the winner.The kill rate, if you will, or the casualty rate has gone from one to two.
26:54The number of Ukrainians taken off the field versus Russians.The ratio was one to two.they were disabling or killing twice as many Russians.It's gone to one to eight.The Ukrainians are kicking ass.They are a model for what a motivated population.They literally embody what Lincoln said, you know, 150 years ago.You can't win a war without public support.
27:20You can't lose one with public support.The Ukrainian people and the technology and their sophistication and their braveryand the existential threat they feel with people invading their homeand bombing their maternity awards in their apartment buildings,they are absolutely motivated and they are winning this war.And to not back the winner and send a message to Xi,think twice before you think about Taiwan,to send a message to Putin and the next leader after Putin is kicked out,
27:49which I believe he will be.I don't think he'll survive this.Says, think twice before you invade the West.So this is, I think him going on the offense, he's sort of unchained right now.I think Trump always thinks he's negotiating in a vacuum.If you would draw your support for Ukraine, they have less to lose by coming out and just blatantly saying,without U.S. support, you may have, the invasion of Europe may happen here.This is probably going to happen.
28:18We are doing our best.He is the church of our generation, Zelensky.Absolutely no doubt about it.And I think they're being very savvy in terms of the Western outlets they're going to.He's a good spokesperson.He comes across is very sincere, very truthful, very likable.And I've got to be honest, my favorite streaming video is saying Russian refineries on fire.And the St. Petersburg strike last night or two days ago was the gift of the weekend.
28:49And Ukraine just reminded everyone, it doesn't need permission to defend itself.The best negotiating leverage on Earth is a drone over your oil terminals.And I hope that they continue to register the same success.And the fact that we are abandoning, this is literally no different than if we, in the middle of, if in 1942, if FDR said, you know what, Hitler's not that bad.He's not that bad.We're going to start providing, we're going to start buying machinery and equipment and technology from Berlin.How is that different?How is an autocrat who does not believe in democracy
29:32and is so anti-West invading Europe?We have been to this movie before.So I'm glad some Republicans are finally, you know,reaching down and feeling these two spherical objectsbetween their legs.And you can tell that Republicans have had itbecause all of a sudden, you know, Trump,it appears Trump is backing down on this.
29:52And he's saying, oh, no,Musk throttled it back, and Rubio, with this bullshit, oh, it just happened.Anyway, I'm hopeful here that this, in fact, is something that Trump is going to have to turn back.He's going to have to check back on his support or his new alliance with Russia.Also, the diesel just, the notion that this is anything other than symbolism, it's seven or eight days of U.S. usage, one day of global usage, and your point was exactly the right one.reason diesel prices are at six, seven, eight bucks a gallon in some regions is because ofTrump's war in Iran. It has nothing to do with whether or not we're able to get diesel out of Russia.Russia to blame for Iran too. I mean, on every front, Russia is the problem. So, like, why are,
30:46why are we playing this game? I'm just happy to see that at least the voters seemingly are seeingthrough this. And it's curious where Pete Hegseth is. I mean, I guess he's in the corner because hedoesn't get to live stream his execution of a paraplegic. But we have not heard anything from theSecretary of Defense in quite some time when it comes to what's going on in the war in Iran.But let's do the JD Town Hall because this was hot, contentious.Here's VP, J.D. Vantz, responding to a question at CBS News Town Hall in Michigan,This one from a veteran, his wife, was a soldier killed in March in Iran.Though the Iranian drone was the weapon that killed my wife,
31:27there were a lot of mistakes and a lot of fundamental failures that led up to that.There's a failure in the leadership, and I want to know how this administration is going to startholding those leaders accountable.So, Joey, first of all, look, I owe, and the whole country owes your family,a debt of gratitude that is quite literally impossible to repay.When you talk about failures that were, that we were implicated,the administration, the Department of War,whoever you want to say was implicated in,
32:00I want to know about that stuff.Because if there were failures, and I don't doubt that there were,I just literally the first time I've heard of this is this conversation,and I want to fix that stuff.Did you see the kid in the back row right behind him who was like,it's the first time you're hearing about this.We also know that it is not the first time.If he's just opened up any newspaper or gone on any website,
32:26he knows exactly what attack this guy is talking about,where his wife died and the abject failure to protect themfrom drone warfare,which we knew how the Iranians were going to be carrying out a number of these attacks.You know, I thought that J.D. did his best, like,I actually give a shit, but then ended on the completely unacceptable position, which is actuallythe buck doesn't really stop with us. And I didn't even do the necessary prep or will not behonest with you in such a way that you can walk away from this exchange thinking that I care at all.
33:06And historically speaking, this is one of the more difficult conversations that a politician isever going to have with a constituent, right, when someone's loved one.has died as a result of a leadership failure,or even just something that happened.People sign up, they know if they go to war,that there is a chance that they're going to die.But I thought that it was really poorly handledand sent a message to the public with a couple weeks to go
33:36before their election daythat the administration is not taking this seriously enough.And they got us into a war that it's,going to go, it feels like past a year at this, you know, we're well into October.No signs of it slowing down. And the Iranians know how much they're benefiting from continuingto keep this going and that they have no answers for any of it. I thought it was reallydisappointing and just sad to see someone ask you, you know, a question for some real answerto their heartbreak and that you say it's the first time I've heard of this. Like, you have a
34:14million briefers.Like, nothing exposes a talking point, you know, like a widower in the front row.And that is policy and wars are in the abstract until they have a name.And one of the, I do think one of the problems that plagues the U.S. foreign policy right nowis that we're totally sequestered from the ramifications of it.The homeland was attacked 25 years ago, but most of us didn't know someone heard.no one was drafted.We've convinced the American public that, oh, we can max out your credit card by going to war
34:49and cutting taxes.I mean, if we at a minimum should have some sort of additional wartime tax or somethingthat helps everyday Americans recognize that wars come at a cost.And even if we outsource most of that cost to military families, we have to do a better jobof giving people a vested interest or feeling the pain of war, if you will.I actually thought the vice president handled this about as well as he could have.And that is, I mean, keep in mind, his predecessor was chased down by an angry mob at the direction of his new boss with a noose.And also, supposedly, in the situation room, he was the one who said this is a bad idea going into Iran.
35:38And yet he has to just tow the company line right now.I do think he came across as somewhat empathetic here.But the reality, this will go down is the greatest geopolitical mistake since the Iraq War,which may have bested the decision to go into Southeast Asia in the 60s,which I think at the time some people would say you could justify.This has been an enormous failure, not of intelligence,because supposedly the Trump administration had the intelligence,and there was an idea that we'd go in, limited strikes,
36:10and see if we could topple the regime quick and easy,and if not, at least somewhat diminish their Navyand their missile launch capacity, kind of, I don't want to call it in-out,but here we are seven months later.No one anticipated or seemed to anticipate or Trump didn't anticipatethe problems in the strait of the horn moves,did not secure it, did not coordinate with our Gulf allies,we've alienated them, did not get anyone in the EU on board.
36:33I mean, people forget when we expelled Sodom for,from Kuwait.George Herbert Walker Bush,God, something like 47 or 60 countries to back him.The last, when we had the JCPOA,the agreement with Iran under Obama,Iran and Russia were signators.I mean, they signed up for it too.
36:55We are isolated.We are doing things unilaterally that make no mistake.We don't think about what's actually going to happen here.And then Vance is kind of left there to just,I feel like right now he's the circus clownscooping up the shit behind the elephant.There's not a lot he can say.What he could have said,
37:14and I think at some point he will,at some point, and I'm curious,just politically,if Vance wants to be president,especially if the midterms are as badfor Republicans as I think they are,at some point Vance would be politically well servedto say something along the lines on,
37:31look, there's certain issues I disagree with the president on.I'm as vice president.I will always support him.But as has been reported in the Wall Street Journal,he and I had a robust discussion over the decision to bomb Iran.At some point, he's going to have to distance himself.And quite frankly, I think politically it would be smart because,I mean, this is how Vice President Harris,
37:54one of the many reasons she lost the election,was her inability on the view to say,is there anything you disagree with Biden not?And she's like, well, I can't think of anything.I wonder, and I'll put the question back to you,At some point, does Vance or Rubio read the tea leaves and start to distance themselves from Trump?Because at this point, I don't think Trump can fire either of them.I don't think any time soon.
38:16I imagine as we head into the lamest of Ducks situation in the last two years of this administration,perhaps as you get closer to 2028.But I would say, like, if J.D. Vance doesn't want to be revelatory about the concerns that he,has on these big issues that are beyond what happened to that man losing his wife,but that everybody in that audience knows that cost of living is going through the roof becauseof decisions that the Trump administration is taking, whether it's tariffs or the war in Iran.Like, why do the town hall then?I don't think that it helped the Republicans going into the midterms.
38:59It just fed the left-wing outrage machine and the feeling of,of being let down amongst traditional Republican voters.I mean, that's their big battle right now with the couch,that they can't turn out the baseand that a lot of right-leaning independence as wellhave responded to surveys just saying,like, oh, I think I'm going to give it a miss this time.I don't think that anything that J.D. Vance did
39:22sitting down on CBS for a town hall,besides making Barry Weiss happy, I guess,you know, promoted his sideor made him seem any more presidential,if that's what he's going to be thinking about for 2020.in my view.But maybe I'm being too harsh about it.But I just, I thought for someone who is so clearly linked to a number of leaks, to the Atlantic, to the Wall Street Journal, to the New York Times.
39:48Yeah, he's the leaker.I love that.He's the leaker in the White House.Well, he, you know, there are a bunch of them.Like, I don't know how Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman got this much action from only one guy.So there are definitely more people in there that are talking.But, like, he's definitely one, especially on the foreign policy front.And someone who came into this wanting a more, you know, thinking America first actually meant no more stupid wars and that we wouldn't be signing up for that. And so I just think that he could have, he's a smart guy. He could have even gotten some more coded language out there to at least, you know, hold of a flag, you know, a little bit of the white flag to that guy and say, like, this shouldn't have happened. And I've heard about it before. You don't talk about dead service people and say, I'm the vice president. I never heard that.
40:32Yeah, and just before we get to questions here, Netanyahu, or Trump has endorsed Netanyahu.And I'm, you know, imagine the reaction of a foreign leader endorsed in our midterms.We used to call that interference.You know, now we call it a Tuesday.Hold music.Not what you want to hear when a pipe dispersed in your basement is flooding.That's why intact insurance answers 2 million claim calls per year within 20 seconds.So instead of hearing this lovely track, you'll hear this in seconds.
41:04Hello, intact insurance.Unlock unlimited free grocery delivery with PC Express Pass.Shop online and get the same low No Frills prices delivered.Get your first year of PC Express Pass for just $2.50 a month.Learn more at nofrills.ca.In 2002, Ryan Wedding was an Olympic snowboarder at the top of his game.Ryan's style is really gunned and gold.And in less than a minute, it slipped away.
41:32But he continued to chase the high.Brian James Wedding. He controls one of the most violent drug trafficking organizations in this world.I'm Michelle Shepard and from CBC Podcasts and the Toronto Star, The Most Wanted Olympian.The Most Wanted Olympian. Available now on Spotify.As someone who cares about Israel, I really hope Netanyahu is kicked out of office.I think Netanyahu and Trump both share a lot. I think they're criminals who are basically running to stay out of jail, at least I thinkTrump was in 2024. And I hope that for the sake of Israel, that they decide to make a changeand have a reckoning because they are losing, on a lot of the levels, justifiably, a tremendous
42:16amount of support globally. And I feel like Netanyahu has put a target on every Jew in thediaspora's back through overly aggressive actions, the IDF, and on and on. Having said that,I feel like, okay, I don't want to be a low-rent version of Musk exporting political devices.I'm not sure that people in other nations or political leaders should be getting involved in other people's politics. I don't think that Musk should be sending messages to the AFD in Germany of tomorrow belongs to me, unite white people. I mean, this doesn't...Well, remember Hungary? What we did that we sent of top officials were openly campaigning for Victor Orban. And I mean, if we're being honest about it, obviously there has been below the rate.our intervention in foreign elections a lot and in Israel under past presidents. But this isbreaking the bank, what Donald Trump did here. And the coded messaging in it, the threat, essentially,to everyday Israelis, that the U.S. will not stand with them against Iranian aggression
43:24and against aggression in the region is what I'm really freaked out about, that these peoplewere going to go to the polls and, what is it, 10 days from now. And they were going to bebe able to pick who they wanted to, based upon looking at this long record with Netanyahu.And everyone expects that it's going to be close. And it's hard to build a coalition like that,especially when you have politics as messy as they are in Israel. And now they have this extrathing weighing on them that Donald Trump is essentially saying, I might not be there to helpyou guys out if you go with somebody else. And you saw Bibi got, you know, right direct to camera.Oh, thank you, President Trump. You know, we're in this.
44:04together, et cetera, blah, blah, blah.It is an unholy alliance of the most corrupt level.And I'm really freaked out by it, that people will not feel like they can go and votetheir heart or their conscience when they, you know, go to cast their ballot in Israel.And I'm not surprised that he did it, you know, breaking norms and conventions is kind of hisbusiness.But I think it's a really dangerous one.I wonder if the Trump endorsement hurts more than it helps.
44:35I would assume, I don't know what Trump's popularity in Israel, I assume it's similar to the U.S. is any thoughts?Do you think this endorsement actually helps or hurts Netanyahu?Well, I think for people who might be kind of fenced-sitters, I think that it helps, you know, folks who think that the last few years has been mishandled, even though he had very high approval, you know, coming out of October 7th and how he prosecuted the war.Obviously, there are enormous questions as to how well he actually did that.I think it will scare some people into staying in line, but it'll also probably emboldened people who were thinking about going in a different direction saying, like, we, I don't want to be stuck with Netanyahu.They'll be able to get rid of Trump, you know, in a couple of years.And maybe this is just all too much.I don't know.
45:26I guess mostly I think it is wrong to do.and we'll have to see turnout, you know, I guess as we say about every election.Today's first day of voting. So let's move to the questions, the Q&A in our remaining time here.Question number one, Nikki asked, Scott, is a Florida resident, will you endorse Angie Nixon?Yes, I'm officially endorsing Angie Nixon. And guess what? It doesn't matter.I'd like to think that Florida at some point goes purple. I don't see it happening.If Byron, what's his name, Byron Donald's?Donald's, yeah.
46:01If he can be a viable candidate for governor, it means we're taxes.I don't, I just, I'm not very hopeful.I'm going to vote for Ms. Nixon.This is, when you look at Ms. Reed here is referring to the Senate race to replace the vacancythat Rubio vacated to become Secretary of State.The race, really, you could be described as sort of money versus momentum.And that is the incumbent is basically not doing a lot of press.She has something like 12 times the amount of money.
46:32And Ms. Nixon is taking advantage of this sort of surge on the left from the far left.I don't think she's a viable candidate in a general election in Florida.I think that some people do get caught up in kind of this, let's call it, progressive fever or someone from the far left.I think this is a candidate.I thought, I don't even think she won the election.I think Vindman lost it.I thought that guy brightened up a room by leaving it.It was the Trump impeachment nostalgia tour, which is not how you run a Senate race.
47:03And to his credit, he's now endorsed Nixon.I think she's a good woman.I think she is absolutely the wrong candidate for Florida.I think she's going to get shellacked in what should be a blue tsunami.But yes, I would much rather see her in office than Senator Moody.Your thoughts?I'm excited about David Jolly.I just I don't think that it's going to happen.
47:25And the data that I was talking about about early voting trends at the beginning.And an early voting trend of a few days does not mean that this is how it's going to go.But I think it would take a real miracle and hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars that it doesn't look like we're going to be spending in Florida.You know, when you have states like Kansas where you're in toss-up territory, I think people are going to be looking towards that.Yeah, I hate to say it. I don't think Florida doesn't play. I mean, I will vote for her. I got my vote by mail. I'm going to do a bunch of virtue signaling and make an Instagram post about it. But I don't, I don't, I think this is not. We'll see. Maybe, maybe, maybe the governor's race. I don't know. Let's go to question number two. Kathleen Dennis wants to know, what can we do about meta and Instagram, who obviously are messing with elections in our country and in Brazil? I'm very, very concerned. And you also see outages, you know,happening at opportune times that make you think like, oh, does someone have their thumb on the scalehere? I get that the headline that META paid the $17 billion settlement a couple months ago,which was less of their Q2 earnings. But this is going to take like a full court press from
48:40the government. And this has been one of the only issues where there has been bipartisanoutrage against tech companies.And you're going to have to put together a massive coalition of Democrats and Republicanswho are willing to take this fight to Mark Zuckerberg and Meta and, frankly, to all of thefolks that are in charge with these big tech companies, if anything's going to happen.But we don't have time, essentially.So it has to be too big to rig.You have to get there and vote.
49:15drop your mail-in-ballot off-by-hand if that's how you feel more comfortable doing it.But I'm deeply, deeply concerned.And that Brazilian, the debate, had some hilarious lines in it, but very concerned as well.I wasn't trying to make it too late.But there was that funny line about, I won 100% of the prisoners, including your father,which was a very good line.Yeah, you're right.This is, this is, nothing's going to happen between now and the elections.
49:43I think one of our biggest regrets about this age is we're going to look back and think, with respect to social media, how did we let this happen to our kids and how did we let this happen to our nation?Just the level of infiltration by bad actors, again, see above. Conservative commentators' misinformation fell off a cliff when those Yandex servers were bombed. I don't even blame Russia.We perform siops in different nations, you know, promoting our interests and eroding the interests or eroding the interests of our adversaries.They're just winning because we have these American tech firms that will cash anybody's check, are porous.If you, and it happens on both sides.If I say 25th Amendment, which I posted on Instagram, implying that the president is unfit to serve to continue in office,it gets six, seven, 10,000 likes because a bot picks up that it's divisive and retweets it and or rethreats it and promotes it.We are being, we're not that divided as a nation.
50:42were being divided by bad actors who weaponize porous platforms who care about nothing but shareholder value.And there needs to be structural remedies.My remedies are age-gating, antitrust, and more accountability.I would like to see verified accounts.And I think at some point there needs to be a law that says if you are not implementing the right amount of technologyand it's clear that foreign actors have weaponized your platform, you are liable.That that is a crime.LinkedIn figures out a way to enforce identity for the most part.
51:17They've got some bots, but it's not nearly as bad.And the result is a healthier platform where there's real discourse.But meta and it's hundreds of lawyers and its new heat shield,it's new Cheryl Sandberg,Dina Powell will deploy hundreds of millions of dollars in lobbyingto ensure that even a guy like Senator Schumerhad real concerns about issues around legislationas his daughter worked at META at some point.
51:41So they have basically bought off both Democrats and Republicans,and then you combine that with just a total lack of understandingamong 95-year-olds around how these technologies work.And you end up with what are the Trojan horsesof the size of Brazil.When we unmask these bots, which we will,and we find out just how much influence,much less the fact that a trillionaire
52:05can spend $300 million dollars trying to weaponizethese platforms and support, a guy impeached by his own party in Texas for governor.I was, I flew to Arizona on Saturday and did a fireside with Senator Mark Kelly, who's likelygoing to run for president.I asked him, if he were president, what's the first issue he would address?And he said, campaign finance reform.And I think that's probably right.This is, but it's not only campaign finance reform, there needs to be structural remedies that
52:32sacrifice shareholder value of these companies in exchange for creating a morehonest dialogue on these platforms because I just don't think people realize how when I put out somethingreally incendiary, it gets a ton of likes, which means, oh, people like me. And I start gettingmore and more incendiary. And we move further and further away from each other in trying to do something.Let's move on to question number three. Harold Stamper asks, will it be end of Trump making crazymoves if the Dems take over Congress in November? No, but it'll help a lot. A lot of people have beenasking about like what happens if there's democratic control of Congress. And I would encourageeverybody, I'm sure folks who are tuning into this live stream are, you know, very into politics.
53:18But go listen to Congressman Robert Garcia, who will be oversight chairman, talk about his plansfor the next term and see where his priorities are. And look at all the people who are going to beheads of committees, the Democrats, and what they're talking about because it's a good roadmap tounderstanding. And spoiler alert, it's not about impeaching Donald Trump. So don't worry. We're notgoing down that road again. But some very good and thoughtful people that'll be in major positions ofpower. And I think all to the good. But Trump will lash out. He will be like a cornered rat for twoyears straight. And he will pull on every and any lever of power. This is part of, I've been havingconversations with people about, you know, well, if we don't have the Senate, you know, or what happens
54:10if we lose this Michigan seat? If, you know, if you're on the fence about Abdul Al-Said,they're going to get another Supreme Court justice. That's what's going to happen. And Mike Rogers isgoing to vote for Donald Trump's appointee. And that could be like an Eileen Cannon. That will be someonewildly unqualified and young. And that is what this election boils down to.to for a lot of people who might not be particularly enamored with your candidate.So that's certainly how I'm thinking about it.And it's not because I'm a, you know, vote blue no matter who, even if, like, I'm gettingdestroyed online for defending Abdul al-Assad from Islamophobic attacks, which I would do any
54:55day of the week.You're going to call him a jihadist.You can talk about the Muslim Brotherhood.You're going to compare him to the Fort Hood shooter.Yeah.I'm absolutely going to be defending him.But, you know, the stakes are enormous in this election.Well, look, with that, Abdul's said, obviously we, or I won't speak through, I disagree with
55:13my key issues, but at least we get to have a discussion.With Mike Rogers, he's saying we shouldn't have a discussion.We have an autocracy that does, that is an election denier.Last question, we've got to go really quickly here.Devin wants to know who will replace Katie Zachariah.I think Scott Jennings.I think that I feel stupider with Abby Phillips has created a monster, and he's our newWhite House spokesperson. You think we're going to have a boy press secretary under Donald Trump?
55:39Yeah, all he needs is a lot of surgery and some blonde hair and he's in. I don't know.I mean, he's blonde. He's dirty blonde. I think no press secretary for a while. I think they'll seehow the elections go and then figure out what the strategy is. But they do better with that rotatingcast that comes in. If you can't have Caroline Leavitt back, which they can at this point. So I thinkit'll be a while until this happens. Susie Wiles, still the Ice Maiden that she coordinated thatFox News interview to get Zachari out is some dirty work. We're going to have to leave it there. Thanks,and thanks to everyone for tuning in. Old music, not what you want to hear when a pipe just burst inyour basement is flooding. That's why Intact Insurance answers two million claim calls per year within 20 seconds.
56:44So instead of hearing this lovely track, you'll hear this in seconds. Hello, Intact Insurance.Lock unlimited free grocery delivery with PC Express Pass.Shop online and get the same low No Frills prices delivered.Get your first year of PC Express Pass for just $2.50 a month.Learn more at nofrills.ca.In 2002, Ryan Wedding was an Olympic snowboarder at the top of his game.Ryan's style is really gunned and gold.And in less than a minute, it slipped away.
57:15But he continued to chase the high.Ryan James Wedding.He controls one of the most violent drug trafficking organizations in this world.I'm Michelle Shepard and from CBC Podcasts and the Toronto Star, The Most Wanted Olympian.The Most Wanted Olympian, available now on Spotify.
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