Is Jacob Fowler the Calder favorite?
00:00This is the Athletic Hockey Show.Good afternoon.This is the Athletic Hockey Show for October 28th, 2026.I am Sean Gentilly.Frankie Carrado is on a plane somewhere in the middle of the continent, I think.Sean McIndoo, very graciously, taking time out of his media tour for the book he wrote all by himself.It's the Athletic 100.the top 100 players again in the post-expansionaire,
00:52as decided solely and completely by Sean McInough.He wrote all 100 profiles,came up with the order all on his own.Dan Robson helped a little bit.That's why his name's on there too.Robson did a light copy edit on everything you wroteand made sure that everything was square.You let him hold the pen a couple times.
01:12For some players in the 90s, I heard.I think I was doing,it was Chicagoit was in Illinois station and theywanted you to knowthat you're not specialbecause they'd all been sworn it by Chris Brongertoo.
01:28I didn'tprofess to be special there. I knew that that waslike a right ofa right ofyou know like aI was finally officially a truea true hockey writer a few years ago when Igot cursed at by
01:43by Chris Pronger in a veryin a very funa lighthearted way.Oh, sure, yeah.Over his, over his placement being, being what it was.How many, how many interviews do you have to do today?I would like to know this.I've, I've done one today, and I've got a couple more the rest of the day.
02:03It's actually not too bad.I, I'm, I'm being dramatic.But it's, it's just, it's, it is tough because I've got a little bit of that tour and rock star thing,where they don't know what town they're in.I don't know who I'm talking to,which makes it tough because when they then turn around,who's who's a player.Who to pander to based on.
02:25Exactly.Exactly.I felt bad.I was doing Ottawa radio this morning,and they asked me,they caught me off guard asking me about senators.And I gave him like,Hasick and Charra.
02:34And I was like,I'm pretty sure Alfredson's on the list, too.No way.There'd be some upset sentence fans flipping through the index.Did he come off?I don't,I don't recall anybody being like,yeah,
02:45I don't think hebump out Sir Savard orwhoever for DanielOfferton. I don't thinkI don't think that.Gila point was thewas the bounce.As soon as Eric
02:56Gajick left,that was it for Gila point.He was gone so quick.We had a bunch of games last night.We had 11 games on Tuesday night.We are not going to talk about all of thembecause Frankie's not here and he's usually the one that's likegung-ho to a gung-ho to do that and be
03:11capable of doing it.And we got no segues today.So it's going to be.be whatever topic we start on is you're going to get a full hour on that so and we got our buddyjansen denk who's who's the i don't want to say new because it's october but he is in his firstseason is yaminton oilers beat writer uh for the athletic got some stuff happening in edmonton asas it tends to i haven't checked the math in a couple days but i think mac david's on pace for360 points the season something like last i checked no there's interesting interesting
03:45interesting stuff happening with the oilers. They've stubbed their toe a bit too. So we're going totalk to Jansen about Connor stuff, team stuff that's coming up in segment two. But first off,Sean, I think the story last night, not surprisingly, the Connor Hellibuck debut. Devils 1-5-1,Hellebuck made 17 saves on 18 shots. I think that's like the perfect way for him to get started.And I think that's like the, you know, that is prove positive of why the devils go out and get him.Because he didn't need to face a ton.You know, 18 shots is what it is.But he made a bunch of night.
04:25He made a handful of nice saves.Only goalie allowed was on a redirect by Hercowian.You know, Dallas had 1.65 goals, expected goals.So it wasn't like, he wasn't standing on his head.He wasn't doing tricks.But I think, you know, he was more than solid at a not solid.enough. And I think if you're the devils, you see that and you're like, this is, this is why wewent and got this guy. Yep. You're, you're perfectly happy with that if you're, if you're, if
04:51you're the Devils or a Devils fan. And probably if you're Connor Halibuck as well, you know,I don't think he, it, it would have been cool if he went out and stood on his head and made a 50save shutout, but that's, uh, that's not the workload you want on a guy who's, who's,who's just back like that. And that's the impressive thing to me was, you know, A, that he playedwell last night, but the fact that he played at all shows you that he really is ready to go.I wrote earlier this week, I was a little, I was a little hesitant on not so much the devil'sside of the deal. I mean, I think they did great on the trade itself. I understand why they madeit. But just the, you know, this push to go, okay, and the devils are now one of the elite contenders.
05:34I was sort of saying, well, hold on a second. We haven't seen Connor Hallibook yet. Goalies are weird.he's missed all of campyou know who knows what when I saywhat kind of shape he's in obviously we're well pastthe days where anybody shows up out of shapeand has to work their way back into it but is hefully in game shape or you know is he going to need a week or twois he going to be rusty all of these things
05:56and the guy I keep going back to is the Jeremy Swainmanhere a couple years ago where he misses campin the in the contract situationand just and basically has the onlynot great season of his careerstart slow and just never, never fully seem to to get his game back.So I was concerned about that.And it's one game, but it's one game where none of that looked like it was actually going to be a problem.
06:22So I think this is good news for New Jersey.And, you know, hey, let's not lose sight of the fact that they went in with tough building,played a very good team, and kind of dominated the game.I saw, I don't know if it was the NHL email this morning, like the recap email or I can'tremember where I saw it.But it was, it led with Connor Hellebuck played a game 330 miles from where he played juniorhockey.And I was like, that doesn't, that's far enough away where it doesn't actually, it doesn't
06:59actually mean anything.Like he played, he played in Texas.That's true.He played, he played in Odessa, which is in West Texas, which is like a.different planet compared toto Dallas. But it was funny to see like, yeah, he returnslike his old stomping grounds just 330 miles away from where heplayed junior. We could have gone with just the same state.
07:19Same state. That's it. If you want to make a connection where therekind of isn't one, you got to, you got to be a little bit choosier about it.Yeah, I do remember when you were, I think that was in the newsletter, wasn't it?Right after the, after the hell of buck trade. I'm, I tried to tamp downI don't want to say enthusiasm for the devils, but I know what you mean.Like, I don't want to view this as like the last piece for that team because, because it's not.Like, we do like, we like their numbers at five on five.We like the talent they have at the top of the lineup.
07:57We like what Sonny Meda did as far as adding, you know, the Luke of Angelistas of the world to kind of build out the middle of that roster.But I did, I feel you there.I think there was a little bit of, the discourse was set in such a way after the trade where you're like, okay, let's pump the brakes here.This is not a team that's jumping up and joining Carolina and whoever else based on this trade.This gets them to the top of that second group, I think, where you're looking at all the teams in the Metro Division behind Carolina and it jumps them ahead of some Atlantic Division teams.but I feel you there.Because I wanted to tap the brakes a little bit there as well.Yeah.
08:42And, you know, tap the brakes a bit, but I'm willing to hit the gas if we see a few more games like this.I just want to see the proof of concept because you just want to see it in action before you're like, okay, this is this is one of the, this is the second best team in the Eastern Conference or something.Yeah, that makes sense.Yeah.And just and it's primarily because it's a goaltender.Like if it was, if they had gone out and gotten a lead forward,Yeah, maybe he starts slow too, but you go, okay, he's, he'll find his game.He'll get it back.
09:10Same, same with the defense.The goalie, you just never know.There, there's such, so many of them are such creatures of habit that.Swamon was bad.Swamon was bad for a full season, basically.Yeah.After that holdout, he never, he never got the train back on the tracks.And that's a guy who's, is serious about, you know, training and the craft and blah, blah, blah, all that, all that off ice stuff that Connor Hellibuck likes to talk about.
09:34Jeremy Swamon takes as seriously, you know, as, as anybody else does. And he looked off for,you know, the duration of the season after your turn. So yeah, we'll see. But it's a, it's a good stepin night one for them. I think we talked about it last week. We've definitely talked about itat some point as it relates to Jakub Dobish. There's some kind of concern early on that thegoal-tending position was going to be a problem for Montreal because, you know, good as Dobish was,short track record, young goalie, you know, yes, he was really good for stretches in the playoffs.Is this something he's going to be able to extend into it into a full season?That was an open question about that team at the beginning of the season.
10:24You know, Dobish has been bad.He's heard.The question, I feel like the second question, the second layer of questioning there, was always like,what are what's going on with with jacob fowler how quick are they going to be to go to fowlerand in really and really put a meaningful number of starts on the books for him and he's he's therepartially out of necessity at the moment but man he was he was really good on on tuesday night46 saves two nothing win over uh st louis uh i do you is this are we are we watching are we watchingthe baton get passed right right in front of us because it felt like that was always a
11:05possibility and now it's yeah 46 saved is a decent start there yeah the the single bestgame of the season as far as goal saved above expected uh and uh yeah i i think this was always apossibility i'm surprised it's happened this early in this kind of decisively becauseDobish has not been very good in a handful of starts.You know, we're dealing with ultra small sample sizes here.But, you know, Fowler has the pedigree.He was a guy that, you know, there were points last year where you wondered if he would takeover.
11:43And the Dobish was the guy who got the ball and ran with it in the playoffs.You know, I've got a piece that I'm working on for probably tomorrow where, you know,the point, the thing I say about Dobish is he was.He was the latest Canadian's young goaltender to show up in the playoffs and just look fantastic.And, you know, I know I'm going way back.Grandpa's going to tell a story here, but I remember one of my first hockey memories was the,the HABs going to the conference final with Steve Penny coming out of nowhere.Penny from heaven coming out of nowhere.
12:21And I, and then, of course, Patrick Waugh did it as well a couple years later.after he took over.And I said, okay, well, is Dobish going to be Patrick Wa or is it going to be Steve Penny?And, you know, so far he's looking a little bit Steve Penny and Pennyish, Pennyish,but maybe Fowler's the Patrick Waugh because, I mean, that's what happened to Steve Penny.He got hurt first of all.But also he, Patrick Waugh came along and it was like, okay, I think maybe we're going to be okay with this new guy.thanks for getting us into the conference final a year or two ago, but we're all good here.
12:58It's not supposed to happen in a month, and it hasn't happened in a month.It's not like Martin St. Louis has come out and said, this is our guy, and he's going to start 60 games.But it does feel like, I guess the optimistic view, if you're a Montreal fan, is the guy who is supposed to be the star is struggling a bit.but he'll he'll figure it out and meanwhile the young backup looks fantastic so maybe we got twogoalies and that's uh you know that's not a bad problem to have especially in this lean especiallywhen you got a guy like sam montaubo kicking around that uh is is potentially either an asset or aninsurance policy depending on how you want to view it they're they're in good shape at that positionI mean, Fowler was supposed to be the guy.
13:46That's, that to me is the, is the underlying factor, the, the underlying element for all of this is that a year ago, a year and a half ago, it's like, okay, Jacob Fowler, this is, at some point, Jacob Fowler is going to take over the net and it's, and it's going to be his.And I don't want to act like it's like it's like a speed bump that, that Dobish came and took it because they don't, they don't get as far as, as they did without him.He was, he was fantastic.but also like if you would have said a year ago hey it's october of 2026 and uh jacob fowler isyou know making is having 40 save nights against the st louis blues i think there's a lot ofthere are there are a lot of canadian fans who'd be like yeah that sounds that sounds about right thatthat sounds like that's that's what should happen and the route's been a little bit different buti think the end result you know it did seem like not that it was preordained but that the best bet was
14:36that foulor because it was pedigree and because of all this stuff was going to be the guy that kind ofthat kind of emerge and he's going to have a chance.I think that's clear.I think when you'd come in and have a game like he did,he did last night,you buy yourself some,you buy yourself at least some runway to take the job on a more,uh,
14:51on a more permanent level.So we shall see it.He was fantastic last night.And this producer Jeff reminds us,Frankie was raving in the group chat about his performance.I was trying not to give,I was trying not to give Frankie credit there.But whatever.
15:03I'm,the last thing I'll say on this is I know there's,there's kind of a saying in hockey sometimes.and you hear it in other sports as wellthat if you've got two goalies,you don't have any goaliesbecause what do you do?You get to the playoffs
15:17and you need that guy to just take over.You're not sure who it isand you're not sure who to trust.I don't think that applies anymore in the NHL.Obviously, if you've got a hell of buckor a Vasilevsky or something,okay, go ahead and ride your guywho's showing he can do 60 or start 60 or 65 games
15:37and play a whole playoffs.but there's more and more teams that have the one in the one A.And I'll tell you, I've seen teams have a one and a one A and I've seen teams that have a two in a two way.And they won't have a number one.And that's where you get into the wrong.You're okay.You got a little tip in your throat there.I've seen that.
15:59And I would rather have the Montreal verd into that problem.Was you trying to team me up for a Karrato Memorial Segway there?I kind of feel like you were.You could have taken it yourself.Have you got one?You want to talk about a team that has a 1A and a 1B.Boys, we have the Carolina Hurricanes,beating the Boston Bruins two one last night.
16:23It's Peotrude Kachetkov that steps in and does it.Kachikov is not when eight starts in a row, dude.And he was good again last night,918 save percentage on the year.He's the guy that's, you know,you start that many.games, I think it's fair to say that you're that you're the 1A, at least for the time being.I think that kind of performance from him, combined with what we've seen from Bussie at various
16:47points in the regular season, certainly in the playoffs when they called on him last year in thefinal.I think that is what you're talking about, isn't it?In a lot of ways, like, if you're Carolina, you keep just rolling the dice and say thatone of these guys is going to step up when it matters.it worked out last year and we'll save our assets and we'll save our cap space or something other than other than Connor Hellebuck.And I think like, I don't like it's early and blah, but but but I do think it's interesting that Kachetkov comes out and has that game whenever you know you got Hellebuck in Dallas.That's all right.
17:28And you know, Hellebuck just traded to the team whose GM had kind of professed that philosophy.of not spending assets on goaltending.And in the end, you could argue he did exactly what he said,which is he didn't really spend significant assets to get goaltending because the Jets had their handforced.But yeah, I mean, you look at Carolina.It's fascinating, right?Because they're the classic example of the team that, you know, they didn't have a one.
18:01And they win the Stanley Cup.Great.Success.everyone's smart, everyone's a genius,except you forget that halfway through the Stanley Cup final,Freddie Anderson was falling apart,and all of a sudden it's like,oh, we got to turn to this Brandon Bussy kid.
18:17Oh, with the Stanley Cup on the line?Oh, my goodness.Brandon Bussy, neither seen nor heard from in like a couple months at that point.And yeah, and you're sitting there going, oh, I mean,this is Vegas is one win away from taking a stranglehold on the series.And then what are we all saying?You know, Tulski got burned in the end.He tried to be a little too smart and he didn't go out and get the guy who could be a number one.
18:42He rolled the dice and it came up, snake eyes.Oh, wait.No, sorry.Hold on.Brandon Bussey just turned into Steve Penny, potentially, and for three games.And that's all they needed.And Brandon, like, who knows where this kid's career is going to go from here?But he should never buy a drinking Carolina ever again.
19:01I mean, if he never plays another NHL game, he's a legend because of what he did in the Stanley Cup final.But, yeah, I mean, you sort of, you grab two coins, you flip them both, you hope one of them comes up heads.And if neither one does, then you go ahead and you make your move during the season.I don't think that's a bad way to approach it.But look, every team that didn't get Connor Hallibuck, as soon as there's any sort of bump in the road,goaltending wise, we're all going to be going, oh,probably should have went and went and paidfor the big man, but
19:35we'll see. We'll see how it turns out.I'm going to read for Brandon Bussie foreverbecause of how nice his aunt was.I ran into her in Carolinaduring the, during the cup final.It was like, she was like, oh, mynephew's the goalie forLong Island. My nephew's the goalie for the hurricanes,
19:53Brandon. I'm like, yeah, okay.Yeah, I heard of them. Yeah. Thanks, Aunt Diane.Okay. And also,hanging around for all that while everBlessy's having his star turn and we're allhaving that conversation in the spring.Hanging out doing third goalie workcoming in late
20:09is of course Peotter Kachetkov, right?Like that's it.If you have three guysor whatever that you're comfortablewith, you just roll the dice and hope thathope that one of them is good and healthy when the timecomes. It's a validchoice. I mean
20:28when it works, it works. When it works, it works.And when it doesn't work, guys like us say it was never going to work.We're always very smart.That's the fun of it.Islanders 4, Preds 3.That was, of course, an overtime win.The reason we bring this up, Sean McIndoe, is because Matthew Schaefer,I saw people talking about this on Twitter as it was happening.
20:49It needed a second to get verified, I suppose.It's official.He became the first skater on record to play all five minutes of an overtime period,which is since 2009, 10,that's when real time time on ice data was officially tracked.It's hilarious that it took that long for the NHL to bother keeping track of that stuff,but whatever.Get their hands on a stop watch.
21:13First guy since at least 2009-10 to play all five minutes of an overtime period.I, you know, we joke around here sometimes like fake stat, real stat.That's a, that's a real stat.Being on the ice for five minutes, like on purpose, too.It wasn't like you got stuck out there.I think that was, I think that's part of the plan there for Peter DeBoer.He didn't get stuck, yeah, but be out there for five minutes.And it wasn't the Alexei Kovalev situation where, you know, Mike,
21:43Mike Kienin tried to punish him by not letting him come come off the ice.And Kovalov thought he was being rewarded and played for seven minutes and then scored a goal.I got to be Alexi Kovale, by the way, is on my personal top 100 list of top 100.age of years.But you know what?Write your own book someday then.Okay.Is that because I was in middle school in Pittsburgh and in the late 1990s?
22:06Possibly.Lexi Covillet probably would have been very cool to that exact demographic.Were you surprised that this was the first time it had ever happened?Yes.Because I was.I thought like this was, like impressive accomplishment absolutely speaks to howimportant he is.Like they took a time out in the middle of the overtime basically so that he could stay
22:26out there.But I'm surprised.I would have thought like,Duncan Keith would have done it or something.Like I,there's a list of guys who I would have guessed.You would have thought like an Eric Carlson maybe would have at some pointhad an OT like that.
22:43And obviously,I'm sure there are guys who have played long OTs and then maybe there was agoal that ended it.I mean, this one went to the shootout last night.So he did get the full five,which most overtimes don't go.But I don't know.I'm,
22:56I, it, it raised my eyebrows a little bit when I saw that this was the first time that it had ever happened.And I mean, it's, it's, it's a, I don't even know if it's a real stat or a fake stat, but it's a cool stat.And it's very cool that, okay, well, I mean, there, there you go.Bang in the gavel.We have it official. It's, uh, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's fun that it was Matthew Schafer to.Because, I mean, what's next. And now, hey, that part's, I'm not, I'm not sick of that kid yet.I don't think.Nope.
23:27Well, I'm glad you're notbecause I feel like he's not going anywhereanytime soon.All right.We're going to hit a break.Coming up, we got talking Oilers.We're talking Connor McDavid.We're talking Battle of Alberta
23:41with our buddy Jackson.Dink.Stick around.I'll be back after the break.All right, we're back.We're here to talk Oilers and McDavidwith her boy in Edmondson, Jackson Dannick,who is,
23:54how many games have you,How many games into your beat writer, your NHL beat writer career?Are you 12?Is that right?Yeah, 12 NHL games.Oh, they've all been.I count preseason.Pretty uneventful on all his stuff is considered.
24:11I was going to say, the last time we saw you in person was when they had us all togetherin Chicago at the beginning of the season.And everybody was like, oh, look at this, look at this fresh face young kid.Just into his 20s and he's taken over.How old are you now?after one month of covering the oilers.Like, are you into your early 40s already?Or what's the progress been?
24:33Yeah, it gives you some great hairs.I think, you know, you can't never know what your story is going to be until the finalbuzzer because, you know, there's always a lead on either side and you don't know whichside of the weather's are going to end up on by the end of the night, whether they'redown by three or up by three.So that part of it definitely stresses you out a little bit when you're trying to know whatyou're going to write.but you're going to age you're going to age like an american president man we're going to we're going to
24:59check in with you each each month and then by the end big bags on your eyes you'll be wearing readingglasses you know full on full full full on head of white hair it it ages people but um i'm glad you wrotewhat you wrote for this morning um if it and it's you know it's the obligatory all rightcan is is connor macdavit going to hit 200 points like how possible is it what what needs to happen thatthat went up on the site, that went up on the site this morning.That's where we're going to start.I know there's a Battle of Alberta to talk about,and the team overall has lost a couple straight.
25:34We'll hit that in a minute.But what has the first couple weeks of the McDavid experience been like for youto see in person and find a way to contextualize what he's done, too,like over the last handful of games?Because you're not just getting regular McDavid.This isn't even standard issue greatness from him.This is, you know, him starting the season in a pretty wild, pretty historic way.And I got to imagine it's been a, it's been a challenge.
26:03And it feels like, feels like you're hitting it the right way, though.Yeah, yeah, no, I'm definitely like going into this.I was expecting, you know, standard issue greatness from McDavid, especially, you know,I'm coming from covering junior hockey to all of a sudden stepping into the NHL.And all of a sudden, Connor McDavid is doing things that nobody has done since,Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. So it's unbelievable. You know, as Leon Dreisdegdell said the other day,you just run out of words at a certain point, but you know, you keep trying anyway. It's,I think a third of McDavid's five-on-five shifts are eventually end up looking like a power play.
26:43And that remains consistent whether they're playing, you know, the Carolina Hurricanes or the Vancouver Canucks.He's doing it to everybody right now. And that's probably what's been the most.impressive thing is, you know, people would have expected maybe,you had seven points in his first two games against the Canucks.It's like, okay, that's the Vancouver Canucks.They might be a historically bad team this year.But then he goes out and does it, three games in a row against, you know,the Utah Manif, the Minnesota Wild, and the Carolina Hurricanes.
27:13So it's just, you know, it doesn't matter who stands in his way right now.Of course, the past two games have been a little bit different for him,Toronto and Detroit did, you know, each did a pretty good job of shutting him down.But, you know, he still ends up putting up points.He's still on a 12-game point streak.He still has 34 points.34 and 12, 2.83 points per game average so far.Yeah.
27:37That is, I mean, that's video game.It's not even video game numbers.So we say that sometimes.Oh, these are video games.If a video game did that, you take it back to the store and you'd say this isn't, this isn't real.this is, you know, this is nonsense.What do we think is, is happening here?Like, is this, has, has something unlocked in McDavid?
27:59Has he actually improved somehow?Is this, dare I say it, maybe a Mike Babcock effect here happening with the new coach?Or is it, is, is it that Connor McDavid, this is my personal theory, just got ticked off enough that, A,with, with the Oilers not winning, obviously, and, and B, with,him almost for the first time in his career taking a little bit of heat off the ice in the summer because of his role in the Babcock hiring.Is this just a little bit like Connor McDavid going, you know what, guys, fine, screw you.We're going to do 200 points this year.It reminds me a little bit of a few years ago when everybody was talking about how great Austin Matthews was for scoring 60 goals.
28:43And McDavid was like, okay, all right, I guess I'll take the, I'm going to take the Rocket Richard this year.just because I can.And now it's, you know, 200 points.I mean, the piece you wrote this morning, could 200 points happen?It's completely ridiculous to be talking about that in this era, this, you know, an era wherewe get six and a half goals a game and we all think it's an offensive explosion.And Gretzky was playing in an era of seven and a half, eight goals.It's, it's, I can't express how wild it is what McDavid is doing.
29:15What's happening?and how do we stop this guy?Maybe like what's like the single number onebecause you go into a lot of stuff in the piece.You talk about how much he's playing with dry siddle, which is great.You talk about the overall ice time,which is also important and also pretty funnygiven the kind of stuff we heard from Babcock ahead of the season.
29:34But like, Jason, from your seat,what is the single biggest driving factor here?I think the number one thing might just be that the Oilers,don't have anyone else to lean on.McDavid has very much taken it upon himself to be the guy.Not that he wasn't already the guy,but he is everything to the Oilers right now.I mean, of course he has one of the best players in the world
30:02in Dry Settle to play catch with.And Evan Bouchard is off to one of his best starts.So those things help.But McDavid knows, as much as he's not going to admit it,in a post-game scrum that he has to shoulder that offensive burden night after night.And you see what happens when he only puts up two assists or one assist.You know, that's, you can't do that because, you know, Toronto's scoring seven goalsor Detroit's beating you in the shootout.
30:34So, you know, he has to produce right now for the team to win.That's just the state of the Oilers right now.They have injuries.and I think he's just got that chip on his shoulderthat they have to be a good regular season team.They had his quote last year that they were just average all year.And, you know, 8-2 and 2 start, it might not look super pretty under the hood,but those numbers don't lie, they're having a good start to this season.
31:05And he's the reason.as far as the non-McDavid, you know, portion of the roster is concerned.I know that, you know, they've lost two straight.It's been odd in certain spots.But like, do you feel like from a, what's going right with the rest of the lineup as it's being deployed by Babcock?Like, are the rest of the forward lines like, I know the production is absolutely not there.But, you know, are they doing?the other things that Mike Babcock asks of his,
31:40of his forwards in particular,like are there,are there at least,are there,what are the positive things that are happening,but behind McDavid,even though the production from the rest of those guys isn't,isn't where it needs to be.
31:53Yeah,the production's not there,but I think there is some buy-in that's happened,you know,coming from Chris Knoblox version of the Oilers,they were a turnover machine.Mm-hmm.They often lost the puck in the neutral zone.
32:06and they didn't get the puck deep in the offensive zone.That's something that has probably been the biggest difference is this team dumped the puck in a lot,especially those bottom three lines where they're not McDavid and Drysidal.They can't afford to try and carry the puck in by themselves.So I think just playing a simpler game, a low-risk game,has definitely been something that's worked so far for the Oilers in terms of limiting odd man rushesand, you know, keeping chances against to the perimeter.That's, that's been huge.
32:39There's, and that extends to, to the goalie success too.I mean, they've had better goaltending than they have had last year.It's, and that's a big part of that is because of keeping chances to the outside and,and really insulating the goalies, because those, those goalies need to be insulated.They're not bona fide number ones that, that they have.They have, you know, Devin Levi's out right now, but, you know, Tristan Jari's the main guy, but he's a guy who needs some insulation.And they've, you know, past two games aside, they haven't been doing that very well.But I think, you know, early in the season, they really were figuring that out how to play a low-risk game, get the puck deep, work behind the defenders instead of playing the game in the neutral zone.
33:25Is there a line combo behind McDavid that you feel like has a chance of working?because if you look at the time on ice stats,Formington, Matthew, Joseph, and Olin Michaels are the,that's the only combo that's played more than 28 minutes togetheroutside of McDavid and Dry Sidel and Podkols.And I'm wondering if there's, if there's some combo there that you've seenwhere you can say like, okay, they might, they might have something in this,in this group because they've really, they've been in a blender for a decent chunk of the season overall.
33:55Yeah, I think you have to point out the injuries that they've had as a main factor behindnot having line continuity because that's something that Mike Babcock absolutely loves issticking the same three guys together and you know even if it if it's not working which isI think what you've seen with Foremanton Michaels Joseph that line is as of late it's not workingyou know at first I think that line was was good at suppressing chances against not creating anyoffense but at least they're keeping the puck out of their net that's not been the case as oflate. And I think if you, if, I don't think they've found a line that necessarily is going to be an84 game solution yet. And I think a big part of that is because Jason Dickinson has been injured a ton.
34:44He's only played a handful of games. Zach Hyman just got back. Ryan Nugent Hopkins just got back.They're still waiting for Matt Savoy to come back in a few weeks. So, you know, they're really going tohave some sorting out to do once that happens.You know, the question of whether they split up McDavid and Drysiddle is still out thereonce they get everyone back.Because you have to, if they can't sustain a bottom nine that doesn't score for the entireyear, something has to give.So at some point, do you look at splitting up that dominant trio that they have up front?
35:19It's a possibility.But as of now, I don't think anything should be set in stone becausethere's no indications that this is a sustainable model for the entire year.So I want to go back to the goaltending because we were talking earlier,and it's been kind of the talk of the league for the last week with the Hullabuck tradeand with what Sonny Meta had said about goaltending and this idea that, hey man,you don't, the days of going out and having a clear number one are done,get two or even three guys, roll the dice, one of them will probably be fine.
35:57And I can, every time that gets talked about, I can almost hear the hairs being torn outin Edmonton from fans going, not necessarily that that's going to work.Sometimes it doesn't.So is this goaltending that they have now, keeping in mind that Freddie Anderson is outthere somewhere at some point, is this good enough that Euler fans should,should not be waking up in a cold sweat in the middle of the night going,please don't let Connor McDavid drag this team to championship caliber again,only to have Tristan Jari or whoever it is not be able to close the deal.
36:34Like, is this good enough or is this still a ticking time bomb?I think for the collection of bets that they've made early on,it's been a good situation so far.Of course, having Tristan Jari as the only goalie right now with Devin Liva,and injured reserve is not ideal, and I don't think that would be a sustainable solution whatsoever.I would agree that having Tristan Jari's your sole healthy goaltender is not ideal, yes.Agree to disagree, but okay.Backy is a big jarring guy. He always has been.
37:06He was 101 on the book list.Oh, hard to argue with that.Devin Levi has been the biggest difference around here.He, before getting injured, he was...He was already the number one essentially over Jari.He'd earned that spot.He was getting more starts.And for a young guy, 24 years old, traded for a fourth round pick.
37:33I don't think you could have expected him to do that.I feel like expectations had to be kept to a minimum.But I think he surpassed whatever modest expectations were in place.He gave them the saves they needed.I think the biggest thing was, you know, he wasn't putting up these shit like insane numbers.but he was making that third period save where the Oilers would, you know, in the past, that would go in.And it's just those timely saves that he was providing.And he has, you know, at least in a small sample size, he seemed to have that big game ability that the Oilers were really lacking from their goal tending in previous years.
38:12And, you know, I think one of the biggest things for an Oilers goalie is blocking the outside noise because there's a ton of it.and that can really cave you in.But with Levi, like one of the things he does is during TV timeouts,breaks between whistles, he'll kneel in his crease or he'll go to the boards,Neil, he'll close his eyes and he'll start meditating.And that seems to work for him because.Goalies.Weirdest people on the planet.
38:44Should have a summit with Devin, with Devin Cooley?Goalies named Devin.Yeah, true.But before he got injured, that was huge for the Oilers.The past two games with Jari haven't been pretty.I wouldn't say Jari has lost in a game, though, which is huge.Aside for maybe the home opener against the Canucks, that wasn't good.But honestly, these past two games, the Oilers have been doing it to themselves.
39:12It hasn't been goaltending.I want to bring it back to the McDavid, you know, 200 point discussion.And this really, it's a great piece that you put together for this morning.You contextualize everything really well.It's, it's worth, it's worth everyone's time.You, you go into a lot of different things here.But the, but the one, the one point that I really like that you raised is like, is the error-adjusted, you know, a question where you say, what would 200 points be, like, what, what is the equivalent?in in in in 2026 and between you and dumb it seems like we're we settled on 165 that's it that's interesting
39:52that seems like that's that's more reachable i obviously it you don't have to you can afford to miss acouple games if you're connor mac david you can afford to have like a three or four game stretchwhere where where uh you're not producing but i'm i'm wondering man and i and i don't want to dothis to you but i'm i'm going to do it anyways on on october 28th we need your final prediction howpoints is Connor McDavid finish with?I think if you asked me a week ago, it probably would have been, yeah, he can be in that160, 165 range for sure. But the longer this goes on, you know, I'm, I watch him day afterday. It's just becomes, and nothing seems to change. He's not losing a step. He's not losing
40:39anything. He's playing 24 minutes a night. And that doesn't really doanything to him, he's good for it. So the longer this goes on, the more I'm like, yeah, you could get180, 190. Like, are you, like, it's, it's totally out there. Um, but it feels more and morepossible with each day. But when you consider that, you know, 165 is, you know, what we'veconsidered this era adjusted equivalent to 200 points. And the fact that he's already had 153 pointsa few seasons ago.It doesn't really feel like that much of a stretchto say, yeah, you can get 10, 15 more points.
41:18Like, with the way he's going right now,the head start that he's built,I think we should be considering 160to be like a fairly safe projection.But I'm shaking my head and I'm laughingbecause I guess the best way I can put it,it is completely insanethat what you just said is completely,
41:40reasonable.Yeah.I felt a little crazy after I said that, but it's...Well, I mean, like, we're like, yeah, he hasn't, he hasn't done a ton over the lastcouple of games.They've lost twice, but he also has three points in his last two games.Like, if that's what passes as, like, a little bit of a lull in the production for him, man,like...
42:00What is wrong with Connor McDavid?He's only scoring at a 120 point pace for the last, the last couple of games.Unbelievable.So give us the number, dude.What is it?Okay.An actual number.Final number, I'll put it at 167.
42:19I love it.It's in 184.How about that?We're going to...I'll go in between.Give me the middle ground.Jansen, we'll check in with you at various points throughout the season.I'm sure we get to, again, we get to watch you age in real time and also track
42:37track Connor McDavid's March to 184 points.It's going to be a lot of fun.Thanks for doing this, man.Yeah, thanks for having me on, guys.Before we had to break, I forgot our ad read there.Before we head to break, I want to remind you.The Athletic Live is on YouTube.Become part of the show in the interactive chat
42:56and hear insight from the athletics best in the business writers.The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini.Check it out and subscribe now on YouTube.You can hit a break.Come back to tell you what we've learned.All right, we're back. Sean McAndew, I would like to tell you something that I've learned.What have we learned, Sean?I don't, well, did I learn this?
43:19Did I learn this or did I have it laid out for me pretty well by Barry's, by, by, uh,Berries Verluga in a piece he wrote this morning on the site.Headline, do the Washington capitals have an Alexovetskin problem?Um, I think you can argue pretty convincingly that they do.But there's some bits and pieces in here, man, that are just,you know,613 skatershave played at least 15 minutes
43:45at 5 on 5 this season.Ovesant's on ice expected goals against per 60are higher than 590 of them.So there's only 23 guys in the leaguewho are getting, you know,allowing the degree of quality chanceson the ice that the caps are with Alex O'Feskin.There's a bunch of other,
44:04there's a bunch of other numbers in there from,from Barry who is,you know,around the caps as much as anybody at this point.Boy, it's going to continue to be a very interesting situation there.Not just based on production, but it's based on who Ovechkin plays with.Like, they moved, Carberry moved him away from Strom, has pretty consistently, which is wild.He's playing with Ilya Proto.
44:31You know, they're trying to figure out ways to deploy him the right way at five on five.The power play opportunities have, you know, completely.dried up. That's the big difference. That's the main reason he's sitting on one goal through12 games or however many it is because he doesn't plan the power play anymore. That was a mainsource of production for him even last season. Man, it's going to be interesting to seewhere all this lands. And if he just ends up being truly like, you know, a third line playerbased on ice time, based on production, based on line mates, you know, for the duration here,because that kind of seems like that's it's where it's tracking.
45:09Yeah, and I mean, you nailed it one goal on the season so far because, look,Alexander Ovechkin is going to retire as one of the most decorated players in the history of the NHL.Not a lot of Selky trophies in that trophy case.So this, this in a sense, isn't new, but you could handle a couple of, you know,joystick coming on plug moments from Alexander O'Fetchkin when he was scoring 60 goals or 50 or 40.but when he's on pace for 15, suddenly it becomes more of an issue.And it's, you know, it's who he plays with, but it's also just who he is.Because any other, almost any other 41-year-old, you go, yeah, of course he's slowing down.
45:53So you drop his ice time, drop him down the lineup, do this, do that.And they've kind of done it, but it's still Alexander Ovechkin, right?And at some point, what happens if he says, you know what, everything I've done for this team,I don't want to be playing third line minutes.I think I've earned a little bit more than that.And then off we go.Does this become a distraction?And the obvious answer is, well, yeah, people like you and me make it a distraction.
46:16We could probably turn it into one.But it's, it is tricky.And it's got to be a little bit tough to watch.And, you know, it's, you really hope this doesn't turn into the Jerry Rice as a Seahawk season, except it's without the switch of teams.all that having been said.The piece I'm working on for later this week,it's my annual Halloween scary starts,and Ovechkin will be on there.
46:45And Ovechkin was on there last year too.And a bunch of Caps fans go,really? You're dumping on Ovechkin?I said he's got two goals or whatever it was.And I think he had about nine goals by the end of that week.That's always been,that's been the variable with him, right?Is that he has one of those stretches
47:04where it's like he scores six and six and ten and then then everything's everything's where it needs to bethis this is you know not not it's it's obviously the situation of the circumstances given his ageand deployment everything it is a story but we're not the first people to have this conversationover the course of his career and most of those conversations end up not aging well so you gotto figure at some point those bursts are going to stop i think that's to me that's it is likeI mean, we thought, but also, were we saying that when he was 39?Yeah.We're saying it when he was 40.
47:38Yeah.When he was 35, when Dale Hunter was there.I mean, there have been a lot of times.And then suddenly it's four goals in two games and you go, right.This guy does that better than anybody in history.There's two things about that idea.And then we can move on, though, is that a big part of him digging out in the past has been gettingstuff started on the powerplay. That doesn't seem like that's going to happen. Like, I think that ship,
48:05like, you know, who knows, who knows what buttoned Carberry decides to push two weeks from now,but it seems like, you know, there is, uh, that, that, that, that decision's been made that AlexOvechkin isn't going to be part of the top power play unit. So, so, so that's wild. It's crazy.That's complete. You would think if anything, it would go the other way. It's correct, too.That's the right. That's the right. That's the right. That's the right. That's the right. That's the right.because they're playing they're playing four on four for for for decent chunks with with him with him on the power play it was it wassomething else to watch it at points last year now does it does it matter if he if he ends up if the puckif the puck makes his way to him and he bangs one in from from the top of the circle you know that's
48:45the question is like does does the if the results are good enough does that invalidate the process likeyou can argue about that all you want but the process with him on the ice on the power play isbeen has been brutal.So, but I don't, I don't think that's coming back.And then the other variable, and I think this is like the, the biggest reason to,you know, have some to, to, you can whistle past this if, if you're the cap to some extent,is that I don't think they need him to be very good.Like, they're, they're, they're banged up right now.
49:15There's been, their schedule has been completely next level bizarre.Like they, they're playing clusters of games and then, and then sitting for, sitting for,uh, for days and days on end.That's happened a few different times.So it's been a weird start for them in that regard,but I do think that that team as constructed.I don't know if I would pick them to win a Stanley Cup or anything,but I think they can be pretty easily the second best team in that division.
49:37Still, even if they're,even if they are getting the 19 goal season version of a version of aVosgen.I don't think they need him to score 36 anymore.So that team can be a contender without Alexander Ovechkin being the best player.I'm not sure if they can if he's the seventh or eight.I don't know if they can be like a true top shelf contender.regardless of what, like in the realm of, in the realm of reality, like if he were to turn back the
50:02clock and be like 31 year old Ovescund again, like, sure, they, they would have that, you know,alpha dog at the top of the lineup that they're missing. That's not going to happen. So I don't thinkthere's any real, any real area where, you know, where you can expect him to elevate them,you know, above where they are right now. But I don't know. I, I, I, he's so much less importantto that operation, at least in an on-ice sense now than he has been in the past that.But in a lot of cards, I'm like, it's wild that it's not that it's not a bigger deal than it is.That's probably the big takeaway for me is that the caps aren't sunk because AlexOveshkin has one goal in 12 games or wherever he's at, which is kind of a wild thought.
50:46All right.What do you got?I learned that there's a book out.I don't know if you guys heard.Who wrote it?I'm holding it up.And yeah, the title is.flipped around, as you can tell, because I'm old and I don't know how cameras work.
51:03This is not something I learned.This is something I've known was coming for a while, and I've been excited about.And so I'm going to do the plug because the Hockey 100, which, all joking aside, was not written by me,was written by the entire team here at the athletic.is ait's a really funread.It's a big boy.
51:28Clocks in about 500 plus pages.But nice and easy to digest100 storiesabout the 100 best playersin modern history.Ranked, I should say,unlike some cowardly other liststhat I could mention
51:43that tried to go in unranked.Can't do that.We got to rank them.Look for it in bookstores,wherever you get your books, pick it up, give it a read, check out the list.And then if you don't like where somebody ranked, let me know.I'll put you in touch with Sean and you can talk to him.You would love to hear your feedback on exactly.
52:07Especially if you're a Detroit Radwings fan,are I reading the Sergei Federov profile.People.Yes.I love that one.They, yeah, they were super chill about all that.I, so here's something we've lost in the last 20 or 25 years.The bathroom reader.
52:28That book, that book would be tailor-made if this were 1999 or whatever.That thing, that thing would, is built to sit on top of a toilet tank to be read in one, one hundred thing increments over the course of a few months.And that's a compliment.I feel like the vast majority of my content gets consumed in that environment.So I am not at all adverse to saying this would make a great.You know what?Get one for everybody on your Christmas list and then get an extra one.Throw it on the back of the toilet tank.
53:05Just even in the guest bathroom.People will love that.That is actually how I read the original collection of Down Goes Brown published posts.Yes.You had that you had me into a book, which I bought, which I bought retail with my own money.Wow.And I read it, and I read it bit by bit.All right.
53:23That was you who did.Okay.That was me.Yeah.All right.I said, someday I'm going to have a bad podcast with that guy.What's up with the book?Are you like busy the rest of the day?
53:35Are you going on, going on the national or anything like that for this?No, no.I've got most of it done.They're still feeding a few things in here and there.But I've actually got it.lucky. Dan is, is, I was going to say, what's out of that with that freeloader, Dan Robson? Is he, is he coasting there?Yeah, I, I think as we speak, he's doing like a double radio hit somewhere. So it's, it's, he's, he's busier than I am because I don't know if people are aware of this.There's slightly more media in Toronto than there are other Canadian cities. So, uh, he's, he's got his hands full for sure.
54:11It's in stores now, folks. Buy it. Um, make the various zooms and,Zooms and in-person meetings and arguments that we had over the last four years,please make it worth it.It was a lot of work for us.It was.And today is a lot of work for MacGna.He's on the phone constantly with other media dorks.Thank you, buddy.
54:37You have the scary starts coming out on Friday?Is that right?I think we're actually going to run it tomorrow because we realize there are too many gameson Thursday night and I'm tired.I'm tired of writing this piece every year and then having everybody in it score a hat trickthe night before it goes live.Yeah, it's a bad idea to write League Outlook pieces on Thursday night as I've, as I've foundover the last few years.
54:59Oh, you've ever run into that?Interesting.Okay.It's a, it's a golden cage, my man.Yeah.Thank you, Sean McIndoo.Enjoy your book tour.Thank you to Frankie Crado, as always.
55:12Flying somewhere.I don't know where he is.he's probably back in Toronto at this point.Thank you to Jansen and thank you to you fun folks for listening.We'll be back next week, four games tonight.Max Drancer and I are on the next show, which is tomorrow, Thursday, live at 3 p.m. Eastern.See you there.
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