MBS Runs Out of Options; Burnham Blames Iran
00:00All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Yemen.The Houthis continue to advance.MBS's situation, I have to say, it looks very unstable in his situation.The Wall Street Journal reported that MBS seems to be in a bit of a panic.He's changing his location often.He's hiding out in various bunkers.He has a security detail of people.that are closest to him, that he, the only people that he trusts. He doesn't have many good
00:36options with regards to Yemen and the Houthis. Either he puts Saudi ground forces into Yemen,or he tries to convince another country to provide the ground troops, but no country is biting,not Pakistan, not Turkey, maybe not even Syria. We're talking about Syria and Al Jalani. We're talkingabout al-Qaeda forces, right? It doesn't seem like they're so, they don't. They don'tseem too hot on the idea of fighting the Houthis, but the Houthis continue to advance and theycontinue to strike into Saudi Arabia as well. What's your read on this situation?Indeed, I agree with every part of what you've just said. And I would add that it looks likeit's going to get worse because a few hours before we started making these programs, the,
01:22one of the military spokesmen of the Houthis started to make a whole series of statements.He told Saudi civilians to evacuate away from oil installations in Saudi Arabia because he says that the Houthis are preparing a major strike and a major strike campaign against those installations.Now, it may be that this is just part of, you know, psychological war.But against that, when the Houthis say they're going to do something, it usually happens.and I wouldn't assume that it wouldn't happen this time.I also understand that the fact that the Houthis have been striking the international airport of Riyadh,that apparently has been a major shock in Saudi Arabia itself.And there have been obviously casualties.
02:18People have died as a result of those attacks.And that has been a massive shock as well.and one can understand why MBS is getting nervous and worried,because there don't seem to be any obvious solutions to this problem.Iran has offered mediation.It's offered its services as a mediator.I do think MBS can accept that.Everybody knows throughout the Middle East that Iran's sympathies are with the Houthis.
02:53you only have to go to the Iranian media, as I regularly do to see that.So nobody's going to accept Iran as an impartial mediator.When the Iranians say that they're prepared to mediate with the Houthis,what they're basically proposing is some kind of set of ideas,which will amount to some kind of Saudi capitulation to the Houthis.So the fact that the Iranians are stepping in and doing thatis another sign that the pressure on NBS is on.But there is this offer of mediation from Iran, whatever it means.
03:32MBS isn't going to take it.He's asked for help from Pakistan and Turkey.Those two countries have proved unwilling to provide anything in a way of practical help.Saudi Arabia's allies in Yemen don't seem to be up to fighting.and winning the battle. And for MBS, sending the army, the Saudi army into Yemen, poses enormous problems.There's been a discussion of the state of the Saudi military by an extremely well-known and highly regarded American military analyst, Edward Lutvac.I have many issues with Lutvac, by the way, on many things.But on Saudi Arabia, he seems to be very well informed.
04:23He talks about an army that is very big, very well armed, but extremely fragmented, because the government of Saudi Arabia, the royal family, have always been nervous of a military coup and therefore have always kept it fragmented.So the result is that the army has never really come together.it's never developed a united espreaticor.And it has no real coherent direction such as you would need in the kind of conflict in Yemen that would happen if MBS sent the army there.And of course, Trump himself, the United States, doesn't want to be directly involved.They certainly don't want to send ground troops into Yemen.So at this moment in time, he does seem to be out of options.When we discussed this some weeks ago, we said that he needed to call Putin.
05:27He did call Putin.Putin does seem to have made proposals for the Russians to step in and to provide their mediation services.But MBS obviously wasn't able to do that.Putin has now spoken again to the president of the UAE, which also has a role in the Yemen crisis.It may be that the Russians can pull something together, but nobody should assume it.And at the moment, things look extremely proud.What do you make of the Houthis warning the United States to stay out of the conflict?They have issued a warning to the U.S.
06:14do not get involved in this conflict.Okay, the U.S. is providing, they say they're providing advisors, Intel, satellite, all the usualstuff is what, is their level of involvement that they claim at this moment.But the Houthis have issued a statement saying, don't go any further, U.S. Trump, because Trumpis now considering getting involved.And the reason he's considering getting involved is because of the airport strikes.there was an American citizen that, at least I read that there was an American citizen that diedin the first strike on the airport. That is the, that's the Houthis. They admit that they're
06:56hitting the airports. And they must have calculated that if they do go after the civilianairports, which is a huge escalation, you do risk bringing in the United States. Yes. And now they'reshowing a warning, don't get involved. Do you think Trump is going to be able to stay out?Well, the pressure on Trump to go in must be enormous. Obviously, he knows it's going to bemassively unpopular with the American people. He doesn't want another military intervention in theMiddle East. He's promised that there won't be military interventions by the United States in theMiddle East. And he must also know, and no doubt the Houthis are making this clear to the Americans,that if the United States does become involved, well, the Houthis have outlasted everybody.
07:45They are an extremely well-organized and very, very tough, well, movement. I don't know thatthey're insurgency anymore, but a very, very powerful military force. And, well, they haveshown also that they do have the ability to close.the Red Sea, and no doubt if the US did become involved, that is what they would do. And when theUS went up against the Houthis last year to try to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea,everybody accepts, apart from Trump himself, and Hague says perhaps, that the Houthies got thebetter of the US over that one. So the options to do this for trying to do.Trump are very, very unattractive and he clearly doesn't want to do it.
08:37But the pressures must be enormous.They'll be coming from the Saudis.But they'll also be coming from the various people within the US and within the US'sallies who are very invested in a stable and friendly Saudi Arabia.I mean, the various intelligence people, the various companies, the businesses that haveinvested in Saudi Arabia in a massive degree, often at Trump's own urging. The military intelligencesecurity people within the US deep state who regard Saudi Arabia as the key ally in the Arab worldand in the Middle East, the Israelis who do not want to see chaos and crisis in Saudi Arabia,
09:29which will only strengthen Iran even more, and the Europeans too.So Trump must be under intense pressure to act.And of course, the Houthis are telling him, don't.And if you do, well, then you're going to be in a warthat is going to be far more difficult even than the one with Iran,and that isn't going very well.But the Iranians are one thing.We are something else.
09:55We are an actual army.and we can advance and we don't fear military intervention by you.All right, since you brought up Iran, a final question.What's going on with Burnham?What is going on with Burnham?He has officially now blamed the RAF-Fairford incident, this diesel theft.That's my understanding of it.It was a diesel heist.
10:23But he has now officially blamed Iran.has rejected this, obviously. They said, we're not involved in any of this. Actually, Iran even said,show us the evidence. Show us the evidence and we'll even help you in your investigation.But anyway, Burnham is now on record saying that there was some sort of Iranian involvementin this. If you listen to his words, he's very careful with his word choices, right? He doesn'tjust outright say Iran did it. He's possibly, probably, most likely Iran directed by the IRGC andstuff like that. But still, what is the angle? What's the angle?here? What are they trying to do? What is he trying to do, Burnham? Well, I'm not sure what he's trying to do in terms of his own personal political position, but the effect of what he's doing is that he is creating, intensifying the atmosphere of fear and insecurity, and some would even say paranoia, that is already altogether too strong in Britain. So he's now effectively said,
11:26that it was the Russians who interfered in the Brexit referendum.Boris Johnson, hardly enough, has come out and has disagreed with him about this.I mean, that tells you something, doesn't it?When Boris Johnson says that, this wasn't true,MI6 have also, by the way, contradicted Burnham on this issue.They've said, you know, let's not overstate how important how affected the Russians actually were.I think these comments about the Brexit referendum caused an enormous amount of uproar in Britain.It was a very, very touchy subject for obviously domestic political reasons.
12:05He's had a very difficult, rocky time with Trump, who clearly doesn't like him.So now he's coming along and saying, well, actually, it was the Iranians after all.And we need to worry about that because the Americans weren't happy.with the people who did what they did were released,and so they'd been criticizing Burnham,and they pulled their bombers out of this air baseand brought them back to the United States.And this has sent enormous amounts of alarm
12:39and run all kinds of alarm bells herewith all the kind of people who want the Americans to remain,and who are very powerful and very influential.So Burnham said something that he used,would please the Americans and all his hopes will please the Americans, and he hopes will pleaseall of these hardline people in Britain about Iran, even as he's saying things about the Brexitreferendum and about the Russians, which will, of course, please and enthrall the Romana camp as well,because, of course, his comment about the Russians is clearly an attempt to delegitimize the Brexit
13:17referendum of 2016. I mean, that's ultimately why he said.So anyway, that's what Burnham is doing.He, well, I always said that he would be Starmar Mark II.I think he's turning out to be even worse than Stalmer, actually.Agreed.Agreed, much worse.All right, we will end the video there.We are on substack.
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