577. Is Badenoch Finally Stopping Farage and Why Are French Schools on Fire?
00:00By any reckoning, Labor had a good conference last week in Liverpool, as the Burnham bounce continued to lift the party in the polls.And this week, at the Tory conference in Birmingham, there is a much better mood than there was a year ago.Both Andy Burnham and Tory leader, Kemi Badenock, seemed firmly in control of their parties.Pessimism these days is more likely to be found in Reform UK, which has been hit continued by scandal and personality clashes,and the Greens with Zach Polanski's struggling to make a mark in the Holborn and,Pankras by-election taking place on Thursday, both Polanski and Nigel Farage at which seemmight well have peaked. But how confident can Labour afford to be with such a challenging economicscenario and a budget later this month in which some very tough choices are going to have to be made?
00:47And with the Tories still behind reform in the polls, how confident can they be of ever regaining powerwithout some kind of deal with the parties to the right of them? To help me answer all of this, I'm joined bysomeone to the right of Rory Stewart, otherwise engaged this week, and that is the formerTory Cabinet Minister Michael Gove.This episode is powered by fuse energy.Most energy companies are counting on you doing absolutely nothing, not questioning whatyou're paying, not switching, just letting your tariff a roll on, which is costing you hundredsof pounds every year.
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02:24the Hawthorns for West Bromwich against Burnley, but I managed to watch it.There you go.I actually had a NordVPN, thank you.I was in the new Starbucks here in Kreef,and of course the thing flashed up saying this is an unsecured public network.And I was able to go to my VPN.And it was a little reminder of something we often forget when we're all those cafes and things,which is actually genuinely people can do all kinds of weird cyber attacks and spying
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03:13And the link is in the episode description.Welcome to the Restis Politics with me, Aleister Campbell.And me, Michael Gove.So Michael, thank you for standing in for Rory Stewart,having yet another week off.I've had none thus far in our four years together.And we are going to talk about your party and my party and their various conferences.We're going to talk about Kemi Badock's leadership style and how she's developed and grown
03:49and a very interesting document that she wrote on the eve of the conference.We're going to talk about France and Spain where there are a lot of protests going on.In France, very violent involving school kids.And in Spain have led to the calling of a general election by Pedro.Sanchez. We're going to talk about Brazil, and we're briefly going to talk about the election inBosnia as well. So I'm looking forward to that, and looking forward to even more looking forwardto question time, where I suspect you and I will disagree, agreeably possibly, on Brexit andIsrael Gaza, where I think we have very, very differing positions. So thank you for being here.
04:26Let's start with the Tories and Labour. It's an absolute pleasure, Alistair. And I know that I can'tlive up to the standards set by Rory of reasonableness. And I know that we're going to disagree,but I will do my best to make sure that it's agreeable. And the first thing that I would have to say isthat I agree with your broad analysis. I think that the introduction that you set is absolutelycorrect that both the principal parties have over the last two years faced pesky insurgentswho've been energized and who've been successful in eating away at the votes, the coreof both Labour and Tory, but for the reasons that you've outlined, the Greens being in hockto a particular group within the party, you've elevated Palestine over other issues, and with
05:13reform because of the scandals that have hit their leadership and the splits that that's exposed,both of those parties have had difficult summers, and that's given the Conservatives,in particular, a sense that they're back in the game. But while the Conservatives, you'reabsolutely right, are united behind Kemmy Baden, or.they still remain anchored at around 20% in the polls.And this week there was a very sobering message from John Curtis, the polling guru,who said to the not quite exuberant, but certainly more confident Tory grassroots,that their polling position was exactly the same as the 2024 election.
05:52And of course, that was the election that resulted in the most humiliating defeat that my party ever enjoyed.And one which saw my own seat fall to the Liberal Democrats and my Lib Dems,as a secure five and a half thousand majority.Now, I want to come back to the Tories,and in particular this very long essaythat Kemi Badoe has written,which I read yesterday, the right way, as it's called.But I just want to first all ask you
06:14about your impressions of Labour,because you were at Liverpool.I just wondered, first of all,how weird that is for you to be at the Labour Party conference,what your impressions wereand what you think the big change has beenfrom Stama to Burnham?Well, the key thing about governing party conferences
06:29is that there's an eerie similarityto them. So I don't want to dishearten those people who are encouraged by Andy Burnham's arrivalby saying that I felt quite at hope because the corporate lobbyists, the NGOs, the charities,they're out in force. So in that sense, there was an element of being reminded of what it was likewhen the Conservatives were in government. It has that complexion. However, the big differenceis not so much between Labor and Conservative, but between Labor last year and Labor this year.year, there was a sense, if not of despair, of uncertainty. So there was a willingness on the part ofthe grassroots to give Kirstama more time to prove that he could be the leader that they'd hoped,
07:14but also a sense of deep anxiety that despite the successful 2024 election victory,that Labour wasn't doing anything worthwhile with it, that it had alienated its core support,that the sense of hope that a majority of over 200 should bring,was entirely absent. This year it was very different that Andy Burnham had infused the party with arenewed sense of optimism. I think that for Labour, there are going to be very, very challengingdays ahead when the budget comes with economic difficulties and also with some securityquestions that remain unresolved. But nevertheless, it was undoubtedly the case that across the party,there was that enthusiasm. I think Burnham's taking the party to the left, not to the further shores or the
08:01outer reaches of the left, but he's situating the party firmly in its soft left,Kinnokite comfort zone. But what was striking is that there wasn't any disquiet from thosepeople whom you might think of as on the right of the Labour Party. So some of those who mightcall themselves continuity Blairites were just happy that they had a Labour leader who wasarticulate, engaging, could forge an emotional bond not just in the whole, but with theviewing audience at home. And so in that sense, I think for Team Burnham, it was a wholly successful exercise.Roy and I interviewed Shabana Mahmood last week, and she's our current episode on leading. And she saidsomething I thought, well, she said a lot of interesting things, but something that stuck with me.
08:49She said that she felt Andy Burnham had given Labour a second chance to make a first impression.And I thought that was very, very well put, because I went to that conference. It's the first oneI've actually been inside the conference zone for some years because I find I find you quite stressful,wandering around the place. But I was struck by a complete change in mood from, as you say,despair to a sense of confidence. And it is extraordinary how quickly that has emanated to the cabinet as well.I felt that Shabana is a very, very, very good example. I think that the feedback we've had to herinterview has been extraordinary. And yet this is somebody that people think they have known quite wellfor some time and they have an image of her.
09:32But I, so I think that's what he's done.He's injected a sense of confidence.And maybe that's a good link to,to Kemi Badenock and the Tory conference where you are now,because the one thing I have to say about Kemi Badernock,she sort of does exude an extraordinary self-confidence.I just wonder whether I'm right about that.You know her better than I do.
09:53And secondly, whether, where it comes from,where does that confidence come from?I think you're right about it. And there is a parallel, funnily enough, with Shabana Mahmood.I found the interview that you and Rory conducted with her absolutely fascinating. And right from the off,she was candid about her faith and the impact that it has on her politics. And you all remarked on thefact that probably for the last sort of 20 years in politics, maybe longer, having someone talk so openly and honestlyabout their belief in God, how it motivates them, why it's so central to their life,that would have been the sort of thing that for any politician would have invited
10:39skepticism or hostility from some.In the past, the view would have been, as you pointed out in the case of Tony Blair,are you trying to claim God for your party?Are you trying to claim the mandate of heaven for your policies?Come off it.But actually in Shabana's case, what it was, I thought, was both moving and powerful.What you see is what you get with Shabonamamu. She is someone whose faith and also whose positionin the Labour Party is devoid of spin or self-consciousness. And one of the reasons why I admire her,
11:14though I don't always agree with her, is that at a time when people seek authenticity,she has it and she can't be anything other than the type of politician that she is. And the same,I think, is true of Kemi Baitnor. So Kemi, Kemi, partly because,of her life experience earlier on, partly because she was a student at Sussex University,where she was almost alone in having conservative views, partly because people assumed,both when she was a student and when she was a young professional, that because of her Nigerianbackground, she must be on the left. That's meant that she's got used not just to defending herposition, but asserting it. And that confidence carried through to her time.
11:59in Parliament. She was a junior minister when I was a secretary of state. And I often remarked afterwardsthat if people came in to any meeting that the two of us had, they would have assumed that she was thesecretary of state and I was the junior minister because she had that intellectual self-confidence.Some people find it irritating because she is so clear in her own mind that she can be sometimesbrisk, almost to the point of rudeness with people with whom she disagrees. But actually,in her mind, she's paying them a compliment. She's saying, okay, you take your politicsseriously, so do I. There's no need for any politest. Let's get down to it. I will defend myideas. You defend yours. I mentioned this booklet. She calls it a booklet. But it's actually,
12:51I think, a much more, you know, booklet sounds a bit trivial. It's actually, I think, quite a seriouspiece of work the right way. And it's obviously modeled on Margaret Thatcher's the right approachback in the 70s. In fact, she says that that's largely inspired by that. And the reason why Ifound it interesting, yes, there's a bit of party political knockabout within it, but you get a senseof there being some sort of pretty big ideas and big intellectual analysis going on. I'll comeon to some of that. I feel, however, and I was honestly, Michael, I was going to come to thispodcast prepared to praise Kebby Beidlock for this serious piece of work. But I think it's clashedwith the way that your party is conducting itself at this conference. Because she says that we've got to
13:34get away from this idea that thinking an announcement is more important than actually what thepolicy will do over time. And of course, what have we seen so far this week? A lot ofallowance for us that striped as being not very thought through. At eve of conference, on the backof labour following through with your prisoner release scheme, how she comes say, we're going tobuild, is it 50,000 new prison places, I'm going to pay for them by getting rid of overseasaid of which is next and unleft and cutting some budgets on DCMS, including I would imaginefor youth clubs and that sort of thing, pipeline back to more prison population. That felt a bit weird.I then think this morning we wake up and we've got a 10 billion pound pledge on some kind of iron dough Israeli-style defense system, which again does not feel to be terribly thought through.
14:27We have this thing about we're now going to anybody earning over a hundred thousand pound a year.We'll get the same childcare as somebody earning less.And here's one I'd love your opinion on.She says we're going to keep the triple lock as well.Now, I've talked to many conservatives over the last decade who all have said to me, the triple lock is an absolute disaster. It's fiscally incoherent. And we've got to get rid of it. And yet there she is saying we're going to keep it. So less serious this week than her document, I would say. So there are two things there. The first thing is the document. And I agree with you. And I think that we're asking a lot of the rest of politics listeners to go through a 30,000 word document from a party leader. But I think... Well, I did it.I think the listeners can do it if I did it.Precisely.I think it's, the first thing is, I'm glad that long essays are back.
15:19As ever, Tony Blair was the trailblazer.His essay, which shaped or framed or should have framed a Labour Party leadership election.I don't think many of the contenders or wannabe contenders paid enough attention to what he was saying.But I think that that has raised the bar overall.And I think Kemi Bainach, to her enormous credit, wrote this.herself. You can hear her voice in the pages. And the fact that one of the thinkers that she cites is theAmerican academic Thomas Sowell is reflective of that. He's the biggest intellectual influence on her.And he is the person who made to the point that you make, which is that you should judge a policy
15:59by the incentives it creates rather than the intent that you cloak it in. So you may say that this policyis designed to generate growth, as this trusted at the time of the mini budget.Of which, Kemi Badock is very, very critical.Very critical.But the key thing is, never mind your good intentions, what are the concrete consequencesof what you've done?And that, I think, is core to the Kemi view.She is, as I say, sometimes scornful of the idea that you need to demonstrate your good faith,
16:35your bona fides, your compassion.what she is absolutely focused on is the logical outcome of what she's done.And she makes great play with the fact that she's an engineer and that as an engineer,the judgment you have to make is about how your input changes the system, hopefully for the better.And that, of course, takes us to the points that you make about the policies announced.I remember once at a political cabinet making the point that we shouldn't rush out policies for conferencesimply in order to be seen to be dominating the media grid,that almost always those policies fell apart on contact with reality
17:13and that the ultimate desire or appetite for the country for good governmenttrumped the need to fill the immediate media appetite for those three or four days.But this time round, I think that, as we were touching on earlier,what the Tories feel they need to do is to demonstratemomentum. Because reform have stalled, not just in the polls, but more broadly in terms of generatingany sense of excitement, the Conservatives are locked in a deathmatch with some. And the Conservativesfeel that they've got to show that at that point where people are asking the question,which is the energetic force on the right, which is the rising party between the two,
17:55that they've got to show on tax, as you quite rightly point out, but also on the questions ofnational security and migration.that they're the party that is capable of taking things forward.Now, as one looks at each of those individual policies,I can see the merits and all of them.But I do think you are right that there is a natural riskthat if you throw policy out at this rate,that your opponents will find the weakest policy plank
18:26in what you've put forward, scrutinize that,and if that falls apart under pressure,it damages the most important thingwhich in opposition leader needs, which is credibility.Yeah.I mean, so, you see, I think she would have been better to have actually stayed trueto the conviction she's trying to put across in this document and actually taking some ofthe talking points from that and built the conference around them as opposed to these
18:52sort of big policy positions, which I think will either disappear or fall apart, because I don'tthink they do stack up.I mean, I'll just give you one example.Actually, this comes from the document.The removals force will have double the budget of the current immigration enforcementdirectorate and border force. This will cost an extra 802 million a year or 1.6 billion in total.This will be funded from closing the asylum hotels at the wider costs of the out-of-controlasylum system. Well, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking in that. And I think you saw that
19:26in the prisons announcement as well. But let me just read you one part, which I thought was really interesting,because she's very critical of trust and the mini budget.She's quite critical of the governments of which both you and she were part.And Rory.She says this, and indeed Rory, but he's having a day off Rory's.You don't have to kick it.No, I won't.They do.
19:46Britain's problems did not begin with the 2024 Labour government.Some began under earlier Labour governments, I can dispute that,and became worse under Conservative ones.I don't dispute that.Others arose because assumptions shared across the political spectrum went unchallengedtoo long. We promised lower immigration without a strategy for delivering it, you Michael. Net Zero waslegislated for before we had an economically feasible route to get there. We left the European Union,you Michael, without the economic plan that should have gone with it. The path to failure was paved
20:20with announcements, targets and good intentions. Now, I think that is a very strong thing to say,and I broadly agree with it. And yet I think that is what she is under my.by some of the announcements that have been made in the last few days.I think you are right, and more to the point, so is Kemi.However, I think that the key thing that the public will take awayfrom the Conservative Party conference will be her speech.We can look at each of the individual policies,and all oppositions feel the need to command attention
20:54by announcing these policies,even though we are probably two years out from an election,even though the state of the public finances then could be far better or far worse than we have now.They've become the sort of entry fee.They've become the down payment that political parties feel that they need to makein order to enter a contention.And it will be, I think, ultimately, the clips of Kemi Badenov,not just on the evening news, but also on social media after she's spoken,
21:25that will determine whether or not this has been a success.So all of these policy canopies, you might find them indigestible.I might think that they only wet my appetite for more, but they are not what the chef is going to be judged on.And I think that your analysis of those three things, those three policy errors, is, as I say, your judgment is right.Kemi's analysis is spot on.and it reinforces, I think, a hunger for a degree of candor and seriousness from a political leader.And that is where I think that the contrast between Kemi and Nigel Farage works to her advantage.Until recently, Farage was in the position where he could present himself as the truth teller.
22:17The person who was the insurgent outside the uniparty tent, not constrained by the rigged rules of the establishment game.Now, however, after the summer, he looks like just another politician on the take.And Kemi, and here I draw the comparison with Shabana, is someone who tells the truth,even though some of what she says will alienate or confuse potential supporters.But she doesn't care because it's more important to her to be true to herself than to offer honeyed words to lead people to support.her when she knows that the policies that she is going to implement and to which she is committedare not those which her listener wants to hear. Yeah. And there's another very, very interestingpassage where actually reminds me a little bit of what Andy Burnham's saying about past
23:10Labour governments. She says this, that Labor believes more in spending direction and regulation.Conservatives too often oppose that approach in rhetoric while preserving or extending itwhen it offers between 2010 and 24. This is the root of the often heard criticism,you had 14 years. You know, and I do think, by the way, I don't think your party is going torecover until there is more honesty from both the people who were there and the currentleadership about some of the mistakes that we were made. She goes on to say, in relation tothis 14 years, the charge which we must accept is that we did little to reverse the structuralchanges Labor had made, which, in her view, took the country in the wrong direction.
23:51Now, Andy Burner makes the same case, as it were, from the left, says that we, the Blair government,the Brown governments, we did not change the neoliberal or Fatshright model.So I think that's what's interesting about the battle that's going to develop between the two of them.And your point about Nigel Farage, Andy Burnham's name comes up a lot in this document.Some of it is the sort of party political knockabout that we might expect, which he's trying to get rid of.But actually, I thought there would have been more of an attack upon the populist right.And I still worry from your perspective that she's not yet decided whether her future lies inhaving people like Rory Stewart and Gavin Barwell and David Gork back in the fold,
24:31or whether she has to try to get some of the soft reform voters back in the Conservative camp.And I think until that's resolved in her mind, I'm not sure where she goes.I think those are fair points.And I think you are right that both Burnham and Beidenoch are in effect sayingthat the promise of the country was not realized over the course of the last two or three decades.four decades. And that reflects the fact that we are in broadly a populist moment across the West,ever since the global financial crisis, low growth, sluggish productivity, and in particular,growing inequality between generations has created this profound sense of discontent.
25:15So if you are now saying the centrist dads got it completely right and it's time to recover ourmoderate mojo, there are big sections of the country that say, no, you're the guys that got itwrong, you're the guys that have landed us in the current mess. We have voted consistently for change,though, of course, different people will mean different things by that. We don't want a pose ofmoderation and an approach which essentially says, trust us, we're the establishment. We want somethingmore radical. Both Burnham and Badnach are offering that. And that, I think, goes to your point aboutthe rejection of Farage and the populist right more broadly.Farage is a flawed advocate for whatever cause he leads,
26:04articulate, charismatic for some, but flaky,and reform bears the imprint of his character.But the country has moved, particularly on questions like migration,over the course of the last 10 or 15 years.And I think that any party that aspires to govern,particularly a party of the right,has to take account of that. And therefore, positions that you or I might have thought were quiteUtre in 2005 and 2010 are now positions that are actually in the European mainstream. And if you look at
26:40what Macron or the CDU or Maloney certainly are now articulating or the Danish Social Democrats,they're articulating policies that when we were, I hesitate to say, in our prime, because you're in yourprime, Alistair. Well, we had jobs. When we had proper jobs. When we had proper jobs,those positions would have been regarded as pretty spicy. And so I think that's one of theexplanations. Interesting. Yeah. Well, look, there's a lot in this. I think we should put it at ournewsletter the right way. I think if you could strip out some of the more obviously party politicalthing. And I'll tell you the thing at the Lepdown when you talked about dealing with activist judges,that sort of made my flesh crawl somewhat.
27:26But I think there's a lot in it.I can see, put it this way.I think I underestimated a year ago.I think she grew when she got rid of Robert Jenric,which was probably a very good move.And it is extraordinary.Both of them now, Burnham is completely in charge of Labour.It strikes me that she's very, very strong within her own party.
27:43I'm also very pleased that she pointed out that Brexit made immigration worse.We'll talk about that in question time tomorrow,along with the Middle East, because I think we should be.be, I think some of our listeners will be horrified at the instead to which you keep telling mehow right I am, but that's because you're a very polite person. We'll disagree more tomorrow,but in the meantime, we'll take a break, and we'll come back, we're going to talk about France,we're going to talk about Spain, and we're going to talk about Brazil, and if we've got time,we might even squeeze in a bit of Bosnia. Brilliant. Thanks very much, Alistair.
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30:55Welcome back to The Rest is Politics with me, Michael Gove.And me, Alice Campbell, and Michael Gove is standing in for Rory Stewart,is otherwise detained. Now, Rory, oh God, now Michael. That was it. That was force of habit. Michael,we're going to talk about the country where I am right now, which is France. There is so much goingon. We're recording this on Tuesday morning. France is today bracing itself for three separatethings. The first is continuing protests at their Lise, their senior schools, which have seensome extraordinary scenes of violence in the last couple of weeks.protest going on today is a public sector, a series of public sector marches to protest against
31:52the planned budget cuts, which the government is trying to take through. And the third big thinghappening today is Marine Le Pen has got a big speech where she's going to try to persuade theFrench people and perhaps more importantly the markets that she actually has a bloody clue when itcomes to the economy, because thus far in her very, very long career, that has not really been thecase. You were Secretary of State for Education, probably, I think that was the job you served in thelongest in your various ministerial roles. In Britain, have we ever seen anything like this that'sgoing on in France now? Because I can't recall anything like it. No, I'm tempted to sort ofreflect ruefully on the most thunderous denunciations that the teachers' unions or indeed some
32:39students directed my way. The worst that ever happened is when the Socialist Workers Partyoccupied the lobby of the Department for Education to protest against what they considered to bemy crime in getting rid of to kill a mockingbird from GCSE. I hadn't actually cancelled it,but it was their campaign. But apart from a few surprisingly well-mannered trots attempting to get inmy way when I was on my way to get my preterm-manger sandwich.there was nothing really to compare. And I shouldn't really make light of it because it's horrifying.We've had schools being burned down. We've had a student, as I understand it, whose hand has beenblown off because of the way in which a police grenade was somehow deployed. Accounts vary as to
33:26who is to blame. But it's undoubtedly the case that we've had millions of euros worth of damage.We've had people hurt. We've had scenes on the streets of students and the CRS.at loggerheads, it's horrific and it speaks to a sort of fundamental problem in French society.We mustn't consider ourselves superior in the UK. That would be a mistake. But there is a fundamentalproblem in French society, which I think is rooted in the sense, in particular, but not exclusively,amongst ethnic minorities in poorer areas, that French society operates a two-tier system.that education for the elite in France is pretty good, but if you're in the bannelier or if you're in any of the cities that are less fashionable that have been overlooked in the past by Paris, then your educational opportunities are narrower and the amount being invested in your future smaller.This whole thing, because it's become so huge and so, and it's getting covered, this is getting coverage right around the world, it actually started with a very small protest by teachers.
34:33at a particular school. So it started at one school, there's Lise Saint-Egue-Zouperé in a place called Creté.And it was teachers protesting about the fact that teachers that they were losing were not being replaced.It wasn't a strike. It was a protest. And then the kids at this school, they joined the protest.And this is where it developed into something about class sizes. I had no idea, I come to France a lot.I had no idea that you have some of these classes in senior schools, class sizes of 40.The other big, big thing that happened was during the heat wave, which we had a while back,that the kids were just complaining that it was impossible to learn in this sort of, you know,horrible, hot environment in buildings that were, in some cases, falling down.
35:17So this protest started and then spread so quickly.And I don't think this is just social media.It's also organization.And then it's also, it's now playing into, we've had today 500 schools shut.We've had over 5,000 arrests.We've had hundreds of police officers who've been injured.And as you say, some pretty horrific incidents involving the protesters as well.And of the arrests, 85% are minors under the age of 18.
35:44But it's also playing into the politics of France, which are very, very tense and very tricky.Got a presidential election coming up.And both the government and the Le Pen Party, the Rassambramon Nacional,they are trying to pin this on Jean-Luc Melo.Jean, the left-wing leader, who has been encouraging these protests.There was one of his senior figures who said that actually in some instances,violence can be legitimate, which is, of course, being seized upon,saying that they're fueling this.
36:16But it's very hard to see how the French bring this under control in the short term,because, of course, you have a, I mean, I'm really interested in what you think about this.I was watching some of the coverage in France, and you had parents who were effectively saying,the kids have got a point and they were effectively, they were all, there was sort of say,there was a parent of one child who was saying, well, you know, what do you expect them to do?Is that a generational thing? Do you think if this kind of thing did happen in Britain,that parents would actually be supporting their children in setting bins on fire?In some cases, you say, setting schools on fire, including one that's named after Nelson Mandela.
36:54Would parents in Britain, do you think, still be of a view that there is never, ever any excuse?use for violence? Would you think there's been a generational shift? I think there may have been someshifts across the generations, but I'd like to think that the basic attitude of the overwhelmingnumber of British parents would be get over yourself, that there is something literallyself-defeating about objecting to the fact that you're not getting a good enough education byburning down your school. It is the case that there has been a growing sense amongst some parents.I don't want to overstate it that if their children are unhappy in school, that may be the fault of the teachers or the system rather than a requirement on the part of the student to buckle down, as my mum would have put it.So I think there is that.
37:47But I do think it's at anything like this scale that we've seen exhibited in France.And again, I have to be very wary about being someone who is too patronising and too inclined to indulge in stereotypes.but it is the case that in France social discontent finds its outlet on,has found its outlet on the streets in a way that has been far less frequent in the UK.But Michael, you're a radical.You're a radical.Is there anything in you that admires that?Is there anything in you that sort of admires the fact that they had a proper revolution?
38:23No.And in 1960s, nothing at all.No.In 1960s, they had these extraordinary riots that it led to.to real change. Nothing at all. One of the things I'mabout the French is that they take ideas very seriously.And French political debate is absorbing and fascinatingand French political leaders. They attract potential on the basis
38:40of the rigor of their ideas. I find thatgenuinely admirable. But however radical I might be,the cross-dealed Tory in me means that I like order on our streets.And so, you know, French farmers are,they make Jeremy Clarkson look positivelyreticent and self-effacing when it comes to drawing attention to their discontent. And similarly,French students, you were around at the time, I was just a baby-in-arms in 1968, French studentsare prepared to take to the streets in order to demonstrate their discontent at times of high political
39:15temperature. And again, one of the things about French politics at the moment, and that relates to the streetprotests and to the school insurgency, as it were, is that both political fringes, I was going toto see fringes, but now the leading figures in French politics, can see something in it for them.So Melanchon can say this is an example of inequality and discontent, and Le Pen and her auxiliariescan say this demonstrates the failure of the government and the need for order.And there is an echo of 1968 in France in that, in that the street protests then,were exhilarating for figures on the left, who saw this as a chance finally to break the sort of bourgeois hold of the republic.But then for figures on the right, it was also empowering.
40:03This was a demonstration of the need for greater authority and the need to protect propertyand the need to rally behind conservative forces.So these sorts of protests are polarizing.They do speak to a populist moment on both left and right.And actually that's one of the reasons why, as I say, the hoary old Tory in me feels that these things are unsettling eruptions into the body politic, which rarely end well.Before we flip to another European country, which has got a lot of protests going at the moment, Spain, which is leading to a new election, just briefly on Le Pen, the speech that she's made today, we've been promised she's going to give us details of how she's going to get 125 billion.of government spending cut in the next in five years of a presidential term. Thus far,this sounds a bit like the criticism I was making about the Tories and their big announcements.
40:59Thus far, she said it's going to be done by reducing fraud. Well, we've heard that one a milliontimes, cutting public spending on migrants and illegally withholding France's payments to the EU.So I think the markets are going to want to hear a little bit more than that. And the other pointabout the interesting thing going on with Le Pen at the moment is Jordan Badella, this young,handsome chap who thought he was going to be the presidential candidate until she decided, no,you can just be prime minister. He has been exposed by this investigative website MediaPathfor making anti-Semitic statements when he was a young party member 13, 14 years ago.And what's interesting is he's not come out and said, oh, well, I might have said that,
41:39but I'm now a very different person. The party's changed. He's actually come out and saidthese messages have been faked. And MediaPAR say they have the proof that these are real messagessent by him. And I think that will become a problem for them if he's shown to lie on thissubject, which is so central to Le Pen, sort of saying that they've cleansed this once under her dad,a validly anti-Semitic racist party. So interesting stuff going on there. Now what about Spain?We interviewed Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish Prime Minister a while back and your fellow conservativeRory Stewart was very impressed by him. As was I, we were both impressed. I don't know if you,have you followed, been following this story about the, this is a housing rental crisis, which has been,
42:23he has tried to make changes to the law to prevent these sort of rogue landlords fromwhacking up rents as much as high as they want. And the right wing parties voted him down.So he has now gone to the country saying, I need a, I need a proper majority, which he's not hadfor a long time, I need a proper majority to be able to get through the changes the country needs.Yes, so Petra Sanchez is a formidable politician.And he's in power at the moment because he also, on a previous occasion, just over two years ago, outfoxed his opponents by calling an early general election, one that he was expected to lose.He did actually record slightly fewer votes in that election than the conservative opposition.But he knew that he had a path to government through the smaller parties, the regional and separatist parties.
43:09He hung on to power.And this time round, he knew that he would face defeat at the next election unless he managed to change the terms of trade.And he succeeded, well, he certainly succeeded on finding an issue where a majority, particularly of younger Spaniards, will be on his side.Because if you're a party of the right, your natural tendency to defend property rights can lead you into sympathy for landlords.And at the moment, across Western Europe, we're living through a housing crisis.That housing crisis is experienced most acutely by younger people in rented accommodation.And being on their side, even if it may not make long-term economic sense, makes short-term political sense.And there's another thing as well, which is that he can, as he did in the last election, turn the argument against his opponents, not just by saying, I'm on the side of the young,
44:07the aspirational, but also by saying to the Partido Popular, the mainstream Spanish Conservative Partythat's in the lead, you guys are only going to manage to construct a majority with the help of Vox,the party to your right. And last time round, the PPP suffered because people thought, well,I might like the moderate conservators, but I don't want them dependent on Vox. And also, Vox'soverall approach to Spanish federalism, as it were, is we don't like it. So if you are a Catalanor a Basque, even if you're on the right, you might be worried about what Vox might do,and so how they might influence a centre-right government. So I still think Sanchez is on a losingwicket, but he's managed successfully in the past to frame an election to put the pressure on his
45:04opponents and I wouldn't underestimate him going into this contest. No, I think that's right.And I think, as you say, the right-wing parties face the same challenge that Kevin Bade not doesis how close do you get to these parties that those who like them love them, but actuallya lot of the people that you're trying to win over are very, very wary of them. And it's just,it's just worth underlining the specific, because sometimes it is the sort of specific thingthat will act as the kind of the light, the flame that really flies up and sets this thing offand has let you in calling this election. And this was about an 87-year-old woman called Marie Carmen Abascal,disabled, and she'd lived in this same flat in Madrid for 70 years. The block was bought by one of
45:48these big faceless investment funds and suddenly slapped on a 230% rent rise. So her rent wentimmediately from 500 euros to 2,650.They later cut it, but still it was well, well,well above what she gets in as a pension.And the thing that really pictures are so important in politics,as you know, and as a journalist you know,a picture of her being carried out on a stretcher, being evicted,just became the sort of symbol for these extraordinary protests
46:19that have taken place right across the country.And I think in that, Sanchez has seen, right,well, there is a cause, there is a left-right cause.I think he thought at one point, you know, that maybe the position he was taking vis-a-vis Trumpand the very strong position that he was taking on Gaza, in particular,that that might have been the cause that united the left.The funny thing, well, were there many funny things about Spain,but one of them is, maybe I should have mentioned this,
46:47that it's had relatively good growth recently.Now, I believe that it's had relatively good growth because austerity was imposed,and endured, and that meant that the Spanish economy was rebooted.But the striking thing is that many of the things that Sanchez does and stands for,I don't like at all, but he's a politician of great guile,and Spain's relative economic success at the moment means that he's in a stronger positionthan almost any other European left-wing leader.We'll be coming back to it, and to those who haven't listened to our interview with Sanchez,
47:18I do recommend it.He's a, as Michael says, he's a very important.impressive political operator. He's also got these corruption charges regarding family membershanging around, which are never good as you go into an election. Now, what about Brazil? Let'sstick with the theme of elections. So in Brazil, these two giant names in Brazilian politics,Lula and Bolsonaro. And it looks to me like Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the serving a 27-year sentence fordoing what Donald Trump tried to do in America on January the 6th. I think his was on Januarythe 8th, Bolsonaro. But his son, who says the first thing he'll do if he wins is pardon his dad,
48:04I think he's looking pretty nailed on because he's 2% ahead in the first round. And the smallerparties who now get eliminated before the second round, they tend to be more right wing thanthe left wing. So it's looking pretty tricky for Lula, I would say. It is. And again,Brazilian politics, again, like a lot of Latin American politics, and indeed,American politics seems increasingly dynastic. So Lula wins, loses, then returns again. And thensimilarly, Bolsonaro wins, loses, and then his son returns again. But behind that, there are deepdivisions in Brazilian society. And actually, if you look at a map of Brazil to see which regionsLula is strong in and which regions Bolsonaro has won, it tends to be the South, which actually
48:51tends to include some of the richer areas,both the areas where the beef barons are stronger,but also where you've got the sort of the gilded business elite.They are Bolsonaro's stronghold alongside,and this is a striking thing in what was a Catholic country,what is still a majority Catholic country,there's a growing evangelical Christian movement,Proste movement in Brazil as well.
49:15They're very strongly behind Bolsonaro.And I think that the,strength of that base combined with economic discontent and also the fact that Latin Americaas a continent or South America as a continent has moved to the right. You know, you can attributethat to the Trump effect, you can attribute that to a populist effect, but it's broadly moved tothe right. So I think it's only Uruguay now and of course Brazil at the moment that has a left-wing,progressive or even center-left government. That means, I think, that the wind is in Bolsonaro'ssales. And it is striking that South America, which we looked to five or ten years ago,
50:01as a place where there was a sort of left alternative to globalization, where, you know,discredited to him may have been Chavez, was acting as a, in Venezuela, acting as a flag bearer for that.And there was a strong feeling across the continent. It is striking now.that it has succumbed or opted into that broad right-wing move.Yeah, and because you've still got Claudia Shamboyam up at the top in Mexico,but as you say, Mexico and Uruguay, about all that's left.And, I mean, I shared with our team, we'll put it in the newsletter,a map of Latin America, and it has literally gone from red,
50:46prominent red to dominant blue.Yes.If we have the British, European, red and blue rather than the American one.And I guess, you know, hard to know exactly, but I guess Trump, the factor of Trump is it.It does a play into all this.He's somebody who has been very, very clear that he even announced tariffs on Brazilbecause they sent Bolsonaro to jail, which I think gives you a very clear idea as to wherehis sympathies lie.
51:15So we'll see where this goes, but I think if I was on the lula side of things, I'd be feeling, I mean, who's he going to get to turn? Unless he feels he can squeeze some of these people who voted for right-wing parties because they so don't like Bolsonaro, I don't know. But if you look, it's not like a French election where generally people will come back to the more centrist candidate, because both of them are very, very polarising figures. It's a very traditional.left-right battle. Yes. And the Bolsonaro brand is so strong. He's even got his ownBolsonaro's third wife, Michelle. She's been elected. His son has been elected into it. And one ofhis other sons has been elected to another position. And they did very, very well in thecongressional and the Senate elections as well, the Bolsonaro lot. So there we've got,finally, very, very briefly, Michael, would you like to explain the Bosnian electoral systemto our listeners and viewers, Michael? Do you be able to do that?Well, I think the main thing about the Bosnia intellectual system is that it is unfeasably complex, so complex that only an Alistair Campbell, with his gift rendering the esoteric accessible, would be able to explain it to even the discerning Restis politics audience.
52:34But the key element in Bosnia is that the ethnic divisions between Bosniaat-Muslims, Croats and Bosnian Serbs mean that there has to be, even,even within Bosnia-Hatsy governor, a recognition not just of how you reconcile those three ethnic identities,but also a proportional system which, if it can do, seeks to encourage working across ethnic boundaries.But that is formidably difficult. And of course, one of the challenges that we have in Bosnia is that the people who've been least reconciled to Bosnia's existence as an independent state has been its sub-minority.and they've been strengthened by a resurgence in Serb and national feeling.You and Rory interviewed Alexander Vouchich on leading a fascinating interview.But one of the things that was pretty clear about that is that Serbia is probably the one country in the Balkansthat has decided pretty firmly that in the choice between the EU on the one side and Russia on the other,
53:41it does not want to be forced into the EU camp.I wouldn't say that it was firmly in the Russian camp,but it doesn't want to be considered a candidate countryin the same way that others dobecause there is a, some would say sturdy nationalism,others would say a compromised attachment to Russiaamongst Serbian elites.Well, I thought that was very sure to considerable depth of knowledge there,
54:08Michael, may I say so.just on the election, it is an incredibly complicated system,and it was set up by the peace agreement back in the mid-90sunder the Dayton Accords.But if there is a big, and it's impossible to say there is an overall winnerbecause you have this three-headed presidency.You have one from each of the ethnic groupswho sort of rotates as president.
54:31But if you look at which party's done particularly well,I'm afraid to say the big winner is this guy, Milorad Dodik,who is pro-Russia, he's anti-NATO, he's a Bosnian Serb, he's banned from office, he cannot stand,but he was a big, big, big part of the debate.And he's now going around saying that his party won because of support from Trump and Putin.So their stated goal, a bit like Serbia, of becoming a member of the European Union,I think it's looking, I'd say quite tricky.I was in Belgrade on holiday over Easter.
55:10And if you're in Belgrade, it's a beautiful city, or most of it's beautiful.A lovely, lovely place, incredibly friendly people.And it feels like a sort of, you know, European city overall.Feels like a Prague or a Budapest or not quite a Vienna, but certainly a Braslava or, you know, any standard European city.However, one thing that you are aware of is the strength of national feeling.And there was fresh graffiti on one wall in quite an attractive area that we were visiting, which said the real victims of the genocide were the Serbs.And so there is the sense, amongst sections of the Serbian population, that going right back to the war in the 1990s, they believe that they were not the oppressors but the victims.and it is also the case for historic and commercial reasons
56:03that Russian business and political interestshave their tentacles very deep into Serb society.Again, we have to be wary about tarring everyone with one brushor characterising a whole nation on the basis of one single piece of graffiti.But what is clear, and the Bosnian elections, as you point out, reinforce this,is that Putin, wherever there is an opportunityto suborn or to seduce a political movement,movement will take it. And the problems that we face with Putin aren't restricted to the horrific
56:38slaughter in Ukraine. It's also the case that he's in a constant campaign of political subversionacross the continent. I'm glad you enjoyed our interview with Vutchech. We've got quite a lot of stick for itfrom the sort of anti-Vukchich Brigade in Serbia because they felt we were far too soft on him.But actually, I think what we did bring out was his, the difficulties he has in deciding which way he wants to go on a strategic level.And generally, one senses he's going into the, into the Serb comfort zone.Yes.But this result, this result in Bosnia, I regret to say, will be as welcome in the Kremlin, as was the Brexit referendum results, Michael, which we will talk about tomorrow.Michael, it's very interesting for you and I to be saying roughly the same thing in relation to the Balkans, because there was a time I remember when you used to attack me ferociously about the role I played in supporting Kosovo in the dispute, the war with the vile, evil Slobodan Milosevic.
57:43That is absolutely correct. So my record in Campbell fandom and anti-Cambulism is a very,mixed one. So it was the case, you may not remember and you may not rejoice in it, that I was anenthusiastic supporter of you during the Iraq War and stood up for your position. However, I was alsoa foam-flect opponent of what you were trying to do in Kosovo for a variety of reasons, but I'mvery happy to admit, Alistair, that I was wrong about that. So the terrible thing, and I know thatthe sole only enrage, listeners of my own podcast, quite right,and the conservative sort of blog averse more broadly,is that Alastair Campbell warmonger,
58:34well, I'm on the same side as Alistair in all of the wars that he mongered.Well, thank you for that.Thank you for admitting you were wrong.It's a rare, rare thing to hear.Maybe that's something we can seem we continue in question timewhen we talk about Brexit.it.Definitely.
58:50Because I think you were wrong about that too, but we shall discuss to be continued.But before you go, Michael, Rory and I always plug something, and you'll forgive me if Iplug my own book, a copy of which has now arrived.This is number 22.And you're in it.Oh, really?And would you like to know the circumstances of which you're in it?Is it my attack on experts?
59:13It's not your attack on experts.It's on June the 22nd, June the 22nd, to,2011, less than a year after his first Labour leadership election defeat, Andy Burnham came to our house for dinner. He was shadowing then Education Secretary Michael Gove and really not enjoying it. So the theme of the book is Percivillians. And my point is that Andy Burnham learns from the things that set him back and learns from the things he doesn't enjoy. I think you're one of the reasons he left Westminster. How do you feel about that now that he's come back as Prime Minister?Uh, conflicted, I think he's probably fair to say.But so far, you'd have to say he's quite a percivilliant character.Percivilliance is his middle name.Michael, we should see you tomorrow and I'm looking forward to it.Thanks very much, Alastair. Thank you.
01:00:09Thank you.
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