The Ringer NFL Show - Biggest NFL Stories of Week 2! Plus, Billy Gil’s Pre-Facts.

Episode Date: September 16, 2026

Tom, Sheil, and Billy Gil get together to analyze and debate the biggest NFL stories so far this week. Next, Billy shares some conspiracy theories he’s been mulling over lately, and the guys take their turns at either debunking or agreeing with him. They end the pod by discussing the teams that are playing like they want the no. 1 pick next year.(00:00) The biggest stories of Week 2, plus Billy Gil’s pre-facts(3:50) Which contender is under the most pressure to avoid 0-2?(11:20) Bills opening new stadium on Thursday night(19:00) Brian Flores vs. Ben Johnson (29:53) Billy Gil’s pre-facts(1:01:00) Which teams look like they want next year’s no. 1 pick the most? The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines.Host: Tom PelisseroGuests: Sheil Kapadia and Billy GilProducer: Chris SuttonVideo Editor: Curtis SchultzProduction Supervision: Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopowell Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up, everybody? Welcome back to the Ringer NFL show. Tom Pellisero here. Shio Coppati, Billy Gill, with us as always. Week two is upon us. It starts off with a great one. Lions Bills, Thursday night football. We'll talk about all the biggest storylines going into this week. We know that Billy is a well-known conspiracy theorist. He's got a variety of different things that he would like to present. for consumption. We'll break all those down. We'll kick it all off right after this. The Ringer NFL show is presented by Fandul. The NFL is here, and it's your most rewarding season ever on Fandul. With the all-new Fandul Rewards Club, every eligible bet can earn you points. Win or lose, the more points, the bigger the rewards you can unlock. Head to fandle.com

slash ringer NFL to start earning with Fandul Rewards Club. 21 plus select states, 18 plus D.C., or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800-Gambler. Call 1-88-7-8-9-77 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. Week two, let's go, boys. I was thinking about this shield. For a week one, not a single major controversy, not a single major quarterback injury. Like, I'm taking that just generally speaking as a win.

I like that. You're right. No, unless I'm forgetting something. Now, there was some officiating stuff. up, but not like that one officiating story that dominated the conversation. We talked about the Jared golf play. That's probably as close as we got to it. And yeah, fingers crossed with the quarterback injuries. It feels like every year we're having the conversation, are injuries worse this year than previous years? And it's like, no, it's just a very violent sport. And these guys are putting their bodies on the line. So fingers crossed that we get through a week to without

having too many of those as well. Billy, we're still waiting on the Tua information too, though, because he may be out, we don't know, uncertain, right? The quarterback ones, though, I feel like the ones we're dealing with, they're all kind of like, does it matter that much? I mean, it matters to Tua. It's his own week. I'm not minimizing it. I'm just saying, like, it's not like, well, Tua's back.

That's a game changer for the entire league. We've had way too many Joe Burroughs go down week one type situations. You know what I mean? Yeah, well, I mean, Tua could get the Falcons the number one pick in the draft, so I think they want to get them back out there, didn't pay? All right. It's a little too far, too fast. Is that one of your conspiracies?

Did you, how much time are you spending, you know, on like the dark web to piece these together, really? I don't, I think conspiracy is an ugly word because I feel like it's associating some of these thoughts with lunacy, which I don't think is the direction these are headed in. You say conspiracy, I'd like to say pre-fact, you know, like these are things that are out there that we may get to the point. And then they'll become a fact. And then it's not a conspiracy. You're just early on this. So I feel like this show should take pride in getting to some of these stories early. I like that you've flipped it because there are people who have talked about the post-fact political era.

You're saying pre-fact. It's like a pre-quil, which I've always thought in general better than a sequel. Yeah. Maybe I'm off on that. Maybe. Biggest stories. All right. It's the Eve Week 2, Sheila.

What do you got? Biggest, your favorite storyline as we had into Week 2. All right. So this is my favorite one every year going into Week 2. So it's not even unique to this year, but it's like you're looking at all the O and one teams and you're getting the stats of, wait a minute,

how many O and two teams have actually made the playoffs? And I got the numbers for you since we moved to a 14-team playoff format. If you're O-N-2, you have a 16% chance to make the playoffs. So it's not like you're totally out of it. Last year, three teams made it. The Panthers, Bears and Texans, they started out, oh-and-2, and then they still made the playoffs. But if you look at the last six years, only eight times.

So we're talking about one to two teams most seasons on average, start O&2 and still make the playoffs. So my question going into week two, my biggest storyline is which are kind of the top tier teams are under the most pressure to avoid the O&2? I've got some candidates for you guys. And then I've got my choice here. We've got a team we've talked about a lot already, the Los Angeles Rams. They had the jet lag loss. All right, I don't know if everyone's calling it that, but it's still fun to say.

The jet lag loss to the 49ers. Now they come back to SoFi. They face the frisky giants on Monday night without Miles Garrett. So they're a candidate. You've got the New England Patriots, the defending AFC champs. It feels like they played a month ago. I don't even know what Tom thought of that game

because he was in Australia. We got to get his thoughts on whether he's panicked about the Patriots start to the season or not, but they lose to the Seahawks. No, H. and now they host the Pittsburgh Steelers who could be a little frisky. We've got the Broncos.

We talked about them earlier this week. They take on Jacksonville Jaguars. And then we've got the Houston Texans who if we're talking about all these contending teams that lost, they probably feel the best. They're like, our offense kind of played pretty well. Our defense is going to be fine. We ran into Josh Allen.

It was one of those games. But now they get Joe Burrow. It's not like they're getting an easy game here in week, too. So you have other teams you could think about the Chargers, the Cowboys, the Packers, but I think it's really that top tier there. And I got to say, the one I'm zeroing in on,

if I have to make my choice here, is the New England Patriots in terms of pressure going in to week two here. Because you're defending AFC champs. Like I said, you don't have A.J. Brown. You're facing a Steelers pass rush that looked pretty good in week one.

I know it was Cooper Rush, Billy. Settled. I know it wasn't Tua, but it was Cooper Rush in week one. But they played well there. And I just feel like if the Patriots Patriots end up losing that game, then they're going at Jacksonville, at Buffalo. It could get a little scary there for the Patriots.

So Tom, that's my choice, is the Patriots as the 0-1 team, the 0-1 contending team facing the most pressure going into week two. Billy, what do you think? Most pressure. I'm looking at it. I feel like it's either the Broncos or the Texans. And I think it might be the Broncos just because the Broncos. just because the Broncos are going to be coming off and they're going to be playing the Jaguars,

which they looked good last week. But again, it wasn't the toughest game for them to play. But, I mean, they're in the same division as the Chiefs. The Chiefs look good. The Texans play the Jaguars. We're not exactly sure how good the Jaguars are based on how they played week one. They looked incredible, but, I mean, they played the Browns. So it wasn't like, you know, the toughest of competitions.

I'm going to go with the Broncos because there were questions about Bo Nicks. They didn't look great against the Chiefs this weekend. And to Sheel's point, you start O and two, it's a tough climb. It looks like they're not going to have that much of if we're going to read too much into the first week. It looks like the Chargers aren't going to be as good as we thought they were going to be. They're definitely not going to be world beaters. We also talked about how tough their schedule is coming up. So the Chargers did themselves a disservice, which may not play that much of a role into the Broncos year,

but they still have to contend with the Chiefs. So I think them going down O&2 if they lose to the Jaguars this week, they're going to have tougher road to climb. I would say from the perspective of what are we going to talk the most and what's going to become, you know, like the phenomenon that every player is hearing questions about and seen on social media. It's obviously the Cowboys, right? You lose two off the bat in your division to teams that on paper, I think everybody would have said going into the season, they're better than, right? I think that's the one we'll talk about, but I think it's the Texans. The Texans are a perennial playoff team under Domeko Ryan, so we're C.J. Stroud. We've been waiting for them, all right, to take that next step. All right, you get to the divisional round every year, but like, how good are they? These are two home games. Bills in week one, Bengals in week two, two of the other teams that

you would say these are some of the teams you got to get past. It was, you know, it was an interesting game in week one. The bills just kind of kept coming. That defense for Houston didn't deliver the way you'd hope a top defense would. If you have the same result against the Bengals, I know the Texas started 0 and 3 last year made the playoffs, but to me, 0 and 2 with two home losses, even with the schedule kind of softening up a bit through the buy after that, to me, Sheel, I would say the Texans have as much on the line as anybody.

Just from a, you know, how good are they? Are they ready to take that next step? You lose these two off the bat. It's just, it's not a great omen at the start of the season. If they get picked apart by Joe Burrow, you know, if he's thrown for over 300 and they're scoring 30 points, then I do think we reassess a little bit. are, is that what's going on with that Texan defense? Maybe it's not quite as good. But this is one where I'm

saying, like, be careful out there because, you know, that the narratives from week one, the Bengals defense, I mean, they were forcing turnovers left and right. But if you really look at that game, I mean, Baker Mayfield was kind of going up and down the field. He, you know, he had kind of these moments where it's like, no, Baker, this is settled down. Like, you don't need to do that. And then they would force a turnover. And that's what the Bengals really feasted on. But I don't watch that week one Bengals performance. And I'm someone who was very high on the Bengals coming into the season, but I didn't leave that game being like, oh, yeah, nailed it.

They look great. I was kind of like, you know, okay, nice win. Good start to the season, but I definitely need to see more with that defense. And then on the other side, I mean, the Texans offense, it ended horribly. We talked about that last possession against the bills, but I was quite encouraged with that Texans offensive performance. David Montgomery looked good. I thought C.J. Stroud was ripping throws for most of the

that game and it ended poorly, but you're right. If they lose, now we're going to be having a different conversation, but I kind of like the Texan's chances of bouncing back in this spot. I'll say it's important to remember that the best teams are the ones that are going to get better after September. Nobody plays their starters in the preseason anymore. You're kind of feeling things out and figuring out what your identity is. So credit to D'Amico Ryan's to start 0-1-3 last year. He hands over play calling duties to Matt Burke. Like he's known, and the offense got better. he's known how to push those buttons at the right times, even when it's tough decisions.

Like, I'm handing over play calling duties. But still, you don't want to make a habit of it. You want to find a way while you're discovering your identity to at least be, you know, like 500 before you get the thing rolling. You go back through, you know, whether it's Belichick or Mike Tomlin or Mike McCarthy, all the winningness coaches of the past 20, 25 years. Look at their records. They're all way better after September than at the start.

You just want to find a way to scrape together some of the, those wins and that's going to be definitely important this week. Billy, week two, your biggest or favorite or the storyline that makes you feel warm and fuzzy and set? I think the thing I'm most excited about this week, the story I'm most excited about this week is the bills opening their new stadium, Highmark Stadium against the Lions. This isn't just your regular, casual opening day, let's cut a ribbon, just throw two teams out there. This is a Thursday night football game and we had years of Thursday night football games and not being that exciting. This is a Thursday night football game.

I think we're all going to be excited for this week. It's the bills. It's the line. This is a game that some people are saying could be the Super Bowl matchup down the road. We're getting this week two. Then we have all the bells and whistles. We have Al Michaels on the call. This is going to be the 10th stadium that Al Michaels opens,

which is pretty incredible. Al Michaels has opened 10 stadiums on the call. Can we just give it up for Al Michaels right now if you're driving? If you're driving, put your hands up. on the wheel. But if you're listening, some are responsible. Just shout out to Al Michaels. He's been doing it such a long time. And, you know, I'm not going to be one of these people that's saying Al's going downhill. I was mailing it in. He's not interested in these games. He's just paying attention to what's going on, you know, maybe some extracurricular activities out there

placing this and that way. I'm not going to say that. That's not me. I think that he's there and I think that he's into it. And I'll say this, I enjoy it. I enjoy an Al Michaels call. Okay. It just makes the game feel bigger. Even if it's a random like Falcons versus, you know, Panthers game. I'm locked in if Al Michaels on the call. So I'm happy for Al that he's going to do this. Also, I like the spectacle of the opening of a new stadium. I like, you know, stakes.

And what stakes do we have week two? Like the spectacle. We have the national anthem and who's singing the national anthem. Great question, Sheal. It's Ali Carvalio. Who's that, you might ask? Moana. Moana is singing the national anthem for this one.

And then, because Buffalo's right there next to Canada, there's a Canadian national anthem. And who's singing the Canadian national anthem, you might ask Tom, the bare naked ladies are. That's a band's. Not something we need to be worried about. Really? Wow.

That's interesting. Okay. And guess what they're going to do because it's opening night? A halftime show. Who's performing at a half time? Very naked ladies again? One Republic is coming in to report at halftime show. Too late to apologize, guys.

We're not going to apologize for this opening night. And then 50-50 raps. Everybody in attendance loves those guaranteed at least $150,000, 50-50-Raffle on opening night. I mean, who could ask for a better night if you live in upstate New York? What are you going to do? If you live in Toronto, drive down, go to Buffalo, it's going to be a great night for all. And guess what? There's stakes at this game, too, because both the Lions and the Bills, they come in 1-0.

But both of them look like they could give that game away last week. The Lions blew a 21-0 lead. they almost lost that game in overtime. They were lucky that the, you know, Saints went for it on an overtime. They went for the two-point conversion and they ended up missing it. And then the bills, CJ Stroud fumbled the ball, but they were driving. They were right there. So I don't think any team left week one very happy with their performance.

They were happy they got the win, but they have something to prove this weekend. This is going to be a great competition for both teams. I think Thursday night is going to be a fun night for all great football. I mean, he got me pumped there. What a breakdown. Are you working for 30? I mean, you should be doing promos for Thursday night football. I mean, I liked all of that.

I do have to ask you about a 50-50 raffle in a second, but I'll stick to football just for a minute. Yeah, I think both those teams, great offensive performances in week one, and you leave both their games being like, are these defenses going to be good enough? You know, Lions played a great first half. Tyler Shuck couldn't do anything.

And then he threw for 326 yards or something like that after halftime. So I have big questions about both. both defenses. Now they're facing, I think, two of probably the five best offenses in the NFL. So that's going to be a lot of fun. But Billy, you didn't even mention the controversies surrounding this Bill's new stadium. I mean, we talked about it in the summer. They had the open practice. Fans were up in arms about obstructed views and this isn't what we signed up for. And the bill said, relax, that was only like 10 people. And we don't even know if those are real social media accounts. We'll get it fixed. Now you're on national television. They got to avoid

some of this posting about fans being upset with what they're paying for because now it's a regular season game it's not just a practice here. Tom, this is what's happening and you don't know because you weren't on this episode. This is prior to your joining us here. Sheal's trying to set me up because the last time we had this conversation, Sheel went out and he said that I was not a man of the people. I was a company man. I was a man for billionaires because I was saying like, you know, like the team did put in a lot of money. Normally they just

He's like, oh, he didn't ask the fans to pay that much for the stadium. It was only a little, you know, a little bit here. This is the setup. He tries to make it as though I'm not a man of the people that I'm a man of the billionaire class, which is couldn't be further from the truth. The billionaire class, as it were. Tom gets it. But I don't like it.

I'm not a man of the billionaires. I'm a man of the people. I'm a man who would go out there and have ketchup and mustard sprayed all upon me, along with the Bill's fans, jumping through flaming tables and all the other, you know, shenanigans that they have. I'm about that, not about the billionaire class. I just said, hey, guys, you know, it's a soft lunch. Just piped down a little bit. We'll figure it out. Like, sure, you went out there and you bought these seats and there's all these railings in the way, but what are we going to do? And she'll didn't like that and he turned the people against me.

And I'm not here for this show. I see what you're trying to do. I'm going to fall for your tricks again. I would say a great lesson for anybody who embarks upon, whether you're building a house, you're doing a construction project. If the contractor ever shows you, because now they got everything on the iPad, right? They can show you in 3D and everything else. If they ever go, don't worry, that's not going to look like that. You got to go, no, I think it is. This is your plan that you're showing me.

And if you're being shown your seat with a big railing at eye level, they're like, no, don't worry, it's not going to be. No, it's like, I think I'm going to pick a different seat. I think that the biggest test here for the Lions, and I've heard this a bunch talking to people around the league who watched that tape was, what are they going to do at corner? They really, Tyler Shuck in the second half, for the Billy you said the other day.

He's leading the NFL in passing yards right now, which tends to happen when you fall way behind. You've got to come back. But the Lions didn't have answers for Alave or really the rest of the Saints receivers. Now you're going up against the Bill's team. Added DJ Moore, he made immediate impact. You still have Khalil Shakir.

You got Dalton Kincaid, who's like a big wide receiver. How do they match up? To me, that's going to be a big storyline in this game because you already got to deal with Josh Allen as a runner. You've got to devote resources toward making sure he doesn't beat you with his legs. If the corners can't play better for Detroit, you're certainly going to have issues on your hands. And also one quick side note on the Lions, too. That was a lot of touches for Jemir Gibbs last week.

Isaiah Pacheco's out for the foreseeable future undergoing a surgery. They're going to have to add a back. They haven't done it this week. So it's going to be another heavy load for Jemir Gibbs. I cannot imagine they're sitting there and going 36 touches a week is going to be sustainable with Jameer Gibbs, where they're adding somebody mixing it up with the guys on the roster, even though I don't know. I mean, I can't off the top of my head.

Vaki, is that the backup running back for the Lions now? I think that's it. Sounds right, yeah. Yeah. Cione Vaki. Yeah, I think he had two carries in the game. They're going to have to find a way to, yeah, Cone Vaki. Very good.

You have the first name too. You're going to have to find a way to balance that out. I'm going to stay for my biggest story of the week, and this is just a pure football story. for those of us who just like the chess match it's soldier field on Sunday it's ben Johnson against brian Flores you saw flow

against the Packers and like whether he's down and definitely when he's up he will throw everything at you shield with Ben Johnson he just put up 59 points on the Panthers and just seem to be up and down the field the entire game if you go back and you look at their prior

matchups including the two last season week one was a national team TV game. J.J. McCarthy ends up winning the game with his legs in the second half. But that was an absolute, you know, back and forth type of battle. And then the second time they met was a bloodbath. Vikings only gave up one touchdown. If you remember, Cairo Santos kicked like four field goals.

And that's how they won. But like those two going at it and the adjustments within the game shield, I just find those matchups so much fun. No doubt about it. You know, you look at it. There were times at the end of that Packers game, you know, those last few series. where you're just like, this is great. Jordan Love had barely fielded the snap and he had somebody just in his face.

It was incredible what Brian Flores was doing. And I like it. He's like, all right, we're okay, giving up some explosives. We're going to come back and we're going to, well, what does he say? Solve our problems with aggression is like his mindset. And it was like, that's what he was doing. Problematic. Just on the field there, Billy.

Just on the field there. You know, I saw your face. Okay. We're talking about football here. And so, yeah, it was incredible what he did, where he's just like, we're going to keep coming after Jordan Love. And if you look at, I'm looking right now at the Bears, every game they've played under Ben Johnson.

And if you look at the nerd stats, two of their four worst games offensively by the nerd stats, where those two games against the Minnesota Vikings, week one and week 11 last year. Now, listen, if you watch the Bills, I mean, if you watch the Bears last week, you're just like, they're going to be able to score on everybody. And that is potentially going to be the case here.

Yes, that is kind of the football nerds scheme dream matchup is Flores against Ben Johnson. That's going to be fun. Who you got in that matchup, Billy? It's the rare 5-1 matchup that seems very one-sided that you still get excited about because Ben Johnson's record against Brian Flores' defense is 5-1. So he has the advantage. But, you know, Brian Flores is interesting to me because he obviously came down, came up there from Miami and he has the lawsuit that was, you know, filed against the league.

and I believe it's still pending. I don't know, Tom, what you're hearing about that situation. So why is it, is it because of that that he hasn't gotten more consideration for a head coaching job? I would tell you this, because teams do research on it every year, gets interviews every year. I don't think that's the lawsuit specifically. It's frankly, he's a little bit of a throwback as a coach.

Like, he's going to be on you. It's going to be in a very aggressive coaching style. that, you know, the, for lack of a better term, the negative reinforcement culture, which is what Bill Belichick did forever in New England, that's been out of vogue. It's been a lot of, like, the positive guys and that. And inevitably, you'll see a swing back. But there's things that people have to peel back. I think that we'd all sit here and say, and you know it, Billy, you know, in Miami, like, he overachieved with the dolphins. You know, he could have been the coach of the year the first year when they went, what, like five and 12, when they should have been a zero-win team.

Brian Flores is a really good football coach. It's just a matter of, of like, is that what you envision? What are the workplace dynamics like? You know, you can get it in his doghouse. Like, that's what it is. But there's nobody who's getting more out of their players on defense. I always think of, I was on the sideline last year, and it was a game, I think, against the commanders.

And the Vikings were shutting them out. And so it's like, they got their backups in, right? It's like a totally meaningless series, like, in the final minute of the game. It's fourth and goal. And the opponents going forward. and flow, flow is fired up. He's pacing the sideline.

Like, this is the last play of the Super Bowl. Calls a zero blitz with like a 30-point lead on the final play in the game to get after and make sure the shutout is preserved. Like, he's ruthless, man. And like you like that or you don't? It's not going to be his coaching style. It's not going to be for everyone. I believe he'll be a head coach in the NFL again.

And there's a reason that he's the highest paid coordinator shield in the entire NFL. Can I do a couple, what's Tom hearing here? Because, Lee, you hit you hit. on a couple things that I had questions about. One, you were mentioning the Lions in their cornerback situation, which is dire. And so I don't know if they would be a team that would actually trade for someone or if they're like, let's get our safety's healthy. But we haven't talked about this Joey Porter Jr.

Situation in Pittsburgh, which is, you know, obvious starting cornerback, doesn't have a new contract, didn't play. And is there actually any realistic scenario or is there a realistic scenario where they would actually move him and he could be kind of a wild card in the first, you know, few weeks of this season that gets traded to a team that needs some cornerback help. So that was my first, what's Tom here in question? If somebody calls the Steelers and makes them a substantive offer, anything's possible. To my knowledge, there have been no significant trade talks whatsoever surrounding Joey Porter Jr. And that's partly just a reflection of the fact that it's hard

to trade guys who you're going to want a really high pick for and or want to get paid at or in the case of Joey Porter Jr. Near the top of the market at their position, like those deals are difficult. To your point, the lions of the logical team, if somebody's going to sit there, they had to cut Terry and Arnold for a variety of reasons.

DJ Reed just got added to the injury reports. We'll see if he even plays on Thursday night. I mean, they are short-handed at that position? Are they going to come up with it? Is Joey Porter Jr. healthy? He does have, like, the back thing. I know that everybody sits there and looks at it,

And it's like, this is, he's faking it and this is a hold. And there may or may not be a degree of that. But he legit isn't ready to play. That's why he didn't play last week. It wasn't him saying, I'm not going to play. At that point, the team can find him, suspend him, put him on IR, whatever. No, he's just, he's not quite ready. He didn't practice most of the training camp.

We'll see if he ends up being out there this week. But is it possible? Absolutely. But it's not going to be cheap because he's a really good player. Frankly, the Steelers could play this thing out. tag them and trade them in March, and they may get more for Joey Porter Jr. than they would right now.

So I don't know if they can get a one for them. I would think it's got to be at least a two to trade a guy like that, and that's a big time price, unless you get closer to the trade deadline. Someone goes, this is the missing piece. Yeah, that's tough when you have to sign the guy as well as give up the draft pay compensation.

The other what's time hearing, we're talking about that Vikings team and just kind of the quarterback situation, there. I know as of this recording, we're not totally sure with Kyler Murray, but is this a team that you think is just comfortable if he's out for a while that Carson Wentz is going to be the guy and McCarthy's going to be the backup? Is this one, I know you mentioned last week, maybe it's Carson Wenz. If he doesn't play well, McCarthy gets in there, would they look outside the organization if they're like, we just can't do what we did last year? What do we think about this Vikings quarterback situation? I don't anticipate they're looking outside. It's why they brought Carson Wentz in as the third quarterbacks. They wanted to, have three guys they thought to play. Kyler, from everything I understand, and again, concussions are hard because you're talking about the brain how quickly it recovers. It's not an ankle.

It's going to be two to four weeks. It's a much more moving target. Right now, he's in the protocol. I'd be really surprised if he played this week just because most guys miss a week now. If you look at the statistics around the league, it's like 90% of guys miss at least one game. But I don't believe it's an IR situation or anything else. You're talking about a week maybe without Kyler. I believe it'll be Carson that gets the start this week against the Bears.

And then we'll see. The Carson Wentz. I mean, you don't want to talk about the weird career arcs of all time from you covered him. Sheel and Philly. He's an MVP candidate in his second season. Suffers a catastrophic knee injury. Comes back and never was quite the same again. And now he's bouncing around to the Colts and whatever Washington was called at that time.

And L.A. with the race. and now the Vikings. And then now you see him come in last week, and he throws three touchdowns and no picks. And you're like, hey, it's that guy again. But it does seem like he's at his best when there's no pressure. When it's you're coming off the bench.

If all of a sudden it's Carson Wentz's our guy the rest of the way, you know, how long does that last? How long does he stay healthy? That's been another part of Wentz's career. I mean, he's a great dude and he's a good football player. And he stepped up when they needed two off the bench. let's see this week against the Bears defense that didn't exactly look like world beaters

against the Panthers and see what the Carson Wentz offense the Carson Wentz led offense is able to do but I believe Kyler will be back soon I believe he'll be the starter the Vikings put up 40 points in his absence you know who knows maybe they take a little bit more time but right now they're following the protocol

and I think Kyler will be back relatively soon there you go yeah Wenz did make a couple of plays in that game where you're like man like that two point conversion and by the way I bet to say this on the last show like Justin Jefferson, you know, we have all the who's the best wide receiver in the NFL conversation. And last year was like Pooka Nakua, JSN. And she's like, that game was such a reminder that if you can just get this guy anything at quarterback, he's unbelievable. I mean, he was just taking over that game in Spurs. So, you know, sometimes you forget to say something on one podcast

and you come back on the other. You're like, I'm not going to mess up again, Billy. You know, I'm going to come back and hit it here, even if it has nothing to do with what we're talking about. I like that podcast revisions. I feel like we, should be open to this. If you give yourself some time to think about like, hey, I made this point last podcast a month ago, whatever, I'd like to revisit this. I feel like this should be a safe place, right, to revisit these things.

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We're here for it. All right, we're back, and it's time to dig deep into Billy's bag of, I was going to say another B word, but even on Netflix, I don't know if we're supposed to say it on this show. Billy, you got a lot of stuff. You've been mulling on, you've been thinking on around the league. I'm curious. You called them pre-facts.

Prefax. What are some of the various theories that you're cooking up over there? So I have three pre-facts that we can explore. Some of them we've already slightly touched on where we're getting closer to the facts situation, but we'll get to that in a moment. Three pre-facts. So I was looking around the league,

just the happenings, just things that happened week one, things that happen off the field. Just think pre-fax that we'll get to. So the first one, news came out. Todd Munkin is going to commit to Deshawn Watson being the quarterback for week two, which we were kind of surprised. We didn't know.

Is he going to be the starting quarterback? Is he not going to be the starting quarterback? He was named the week one quarterback. Didn't look great. So is this the time that you make the move to Shadoor's standards? I mean, to be honest, Todd is not dealing with the, you know, murderous row there of quarterbacks in the quarterback room. So he has to choose a quarterback.

He's going to go with Deshaun Watts again, very unpopular within his team, within the league, within the fans. So he's sticking with him, which makes me wonder, after committing to him a second week in a row is Todd's future as a head coach tied to Deshawn Watson's success in the league because he's sticking with his guy and I know what you're thinking

he signed a deal for $50 million this is the first year surely they can't fire him after one year so I started doing a little digging into the pre-fact factory and I found this Pete Carroll signed a three year $45 million deal. He was fired after one year in Las Vegas. Frank Wright, as in Carolina where they're

kind of crazy people over there and they'll just do whatever they want. He was fired one year into his deal. Carolina was a four-year deal. And Nathaniel Hackett was fired during his first season in a four-year deal. So while you're saying, hey, no one's going to fire him after one year with this roster that we've given him. He can't do any better. There is precedent to this idea that after one year he could be done. And it took him a while to get his first gig. He's, I believe, 60 years old. Some people around the league, I think Tom, you touched on this and you said, hey, Spaggs, whether he becomes a coach again or not, could be relying on how Todd does. And we said, whoa, Tom, that's crazy. Who would say that? But you said that, I believe, if you look at the tape. I said that exactly.

I think that's how that came out, if I remember correctly. Yeah. So what do you guys think? Is it possible that Todd has hitched his wagon here to Deshaun and his future as a head coach in the league could rest on the shoulders of Deshawn Watson. Well, I think you're sort of painting a picture that Todd Monkin's doing one thing and maybe the organization wants to do something else, which I don't know that that's necessarily the case. I don't think they have a great option. I think if you hooked Andrew Barry up to a lie detector and said,

do you really care if you guys have like a bottom five record in the NFL this year, it'll probably be like, nope, we have two first round picks next year. We're probably going to find our quarterback in next year's draft. and so that wouldn't be the worst situation in the world. So I don't know if Munkin just is able to decide on his own, if this is an organizational decision. But again, it's like it's Watson or Sodor Sanders. And I think the points you raise are good ones just for the fan base.

I think they would probably just, they don't want to see Deshawn Watson ever for their football game ever again is what it feels like the Browns fan base is like. And I don't blame them in that scenario. But Munkin is a tough one, Tom, because it's like, you know, you could bring in a new. quarterback next year, a young quarterback. And you could say, yeah, Todd Bunkin is a veteran, offensive coach. This would be a good guy to coach our young quarterback. Or you could say, we're starting a new era of Browns football with this draft pick, who we take in the top 10.

And you know what? We want someone who's just going to be ideally with this young quarterback for a very long time. And that might not be Todd Munkin. And then, Billy, I don't know if this was part of your, what was it, pre-fact? Is that all right? Prefacts. Okay. I mean, if I'm looking into my pre-fact crystal ball here for next January, February. Is there a team out there? It was like, Todd Bunken is a great offensive coordinator candidate. Let's bring him in here. So I might be jumping ahead, Tom, but that's where my mind is going.

Well, hold on. Here's the thing, too. Sorry to cut you off, Tom. But here's the thing, too. While it may not be his decision, could this be a Gerard Mayo situation where he was the guy that was in there? It wasn't working. But then Vrabel's available.

And you're like, you know what? We could do the right thing by Gerard and give him another shot. Or we can say, this is not really. really our guy and we can go out and get a rabble. Could a quarterback or could a coach become available that even if he's not calling this, it could be one and done because of Deshawn, Tom?

Your original premise was, is Todd Munkin's future tied to to Sean Watson? No. I feel fairly confident saying, no, that is not true. Remember, week one on the road, at Jacksonville,

week two, at Tampa. When they named as Sean Watson, the starter and Todd Monkin talked about we got two road games. It's about the process and the operation and just all those different things that functioned in a road environment, Deshawn's played a lot more football and makes sense to have them in. Now, if it looks the same way this week that it did last week, then you're sitting there going, we've got the Panthers coming in in week three. It's the home opener. Whatever quarterback we have out there is probably going to look better. Now, great. I mean, Carolina's got a good defense coordinator,

Nader O'Overro. I really believe that. Last week was an abomination. It was awful, and I don't think anybody would run away from that. But still, you're talking about coming home, you're going to have some juice in the crowd, either way. But if Deshawn's the quarterback, it's going to be negative juice. I believe

everything we know about the Browns organization is there's always a plan. You certainly can say at times, over the past decade, it's been a bad plan, plenty of times. But there's always a plan. They're not doing this willy-nilly. They're not just watching one game and going, we've got to skew the other way. So I don't know for a fact that they went in this going.

We're going to start Deshaun for two. And then if we lose those games, we go to the Chador. But this would be a logical point to do it. The other thing I'd point out is this is kind of one of those. You got one shot to make the change, right? The biggest C changes you can make in an organization are change the coach or change the quarterback. Well, sorry, Billy. They're not changing Todd Monkhan after one or two games.

You can change the quarterback. But if you go to Chador and then he struggles, now what? now you've got a long season left and you're going now do we do we give Dylan Gabriel a shot when he gets off IR can we even put tail and green out there as a quarterback as opposed to like you know just playing in in packages you create all these different questions

they got two first round picks in next year's draft we can all realistically look at it and say the quarterback of the Browns in 2027 is probably not on the team but the other fact you have to consider is Deshawn Watson regardless of whether he's starting, he's going to be on the roster. This whole idea of they should just cut him, whatever.

I mean, he can't trade him at this point. His contract is structured such that they basically have to keep him on the roster through Next March and then cut him as a post-June 1 cut. Otherwise, all this cap acceleration hits in 2027 instead of spreading into 2028. So like, he's going to be there. He's going to be in the locker room no matter what. Let's see how this game goes. You know, the Tampa defense was up and down there,

a little bit of a transition phase as well, Billy. But no, I don't believe that, I don't believe this is Todd Monkin going rogue. I do believe he's in charge of making these decisions, but they've got an organizational plan. And how they function, how they perform this week, is going to play a part in it, even though I don't know that getting a win

and upsetting Tampa is going to make it suddenly a really friendly environment in Cleveland for Deshawn. So you're saying pre-fiction on this one. Was that, I didn't know it was pre-factor pre-fiction. We came up with that during the segment in the pre-factory over here. I'm going pre-fiction. Pre-fiction. Okay. You want another one? Yeah, let's go. Unless Sheila, you want to keep talking about the Browns, which we can do. No, I mean, the only thing that I was like looking because you spurred my interest when you said,

you know, could there be another coach that becomes available? But I'll hear, you give me the second prefact. And if I come up with the juicy, I'm like, huh, I could kind of see that guy in Cleveland in next year, then I'll give it to you, but I don't know that I'm going to get there. They really like Todd Malkin there. Just let me get that on the record too. Like just the people in the building are really enjoying Todd. He's like, Kevin Savansky won coach of the year there twice. He also like, you know, said nothing ever at the podium with Todd.

Every time he walks up there, like you're like, what might happen now? What's he going to say? What's he mad about today? Like, I think that's fun. Like his energy from everything I've been told has been really cool in the building. Oh, wait, I did find one for you, Billy. You know, they might like Todd Munk and he might stay there. but Shane Steichen did get my attention here as I scroll through the standings

if that season doesn't go well into Indianapolis. I would make the argument that he's done a good job and it's just been a bad situation for him there in Indianapolis. He's not someone who's going to be wrestling away personnel power so Andrew Barry can be fine. You got a young quarterback. Shane Steikin's kind of like a young Todd Monkett. Okay, we can move on.

Just had to get a game. It's one game. Listen, this is what we do, you know? people also always fall in love with Cliff Kingsbury. It doesn't matter what he's doing and where he fails. People just fall in love with the idea of Cliff Kingsbury being a good coach. Always give another shot. I saw Cliff on the sideline in Melbourne.

I was like, that's right. He's an assistant with the Rams. That had slipped my mind, but he's still pacing the sideline with the place sheet like always. We also used to pretend for the longest time Bill Cower was going to come out of coaching. I don't know if we're still pretending Bill Cower is going to be a coach again. I feel like we moved on from that. He was still getting told a few years. ago. Really? Really?

Yeah, people were still calling on him for a very long time. Is Mike Tomlin going to be like Bill Cowher and just, is he going to do TV the rest of his life or is he going to be back, Tom? What do we think? There will be interest. I have no reason right now to believe Mike Tomlin wants to coach in 2027. It's also September.

How is he feeling November, December, January? Is he like in wearing the suit on Sunday night football? Is he wanting to go back? Right now, I don't get any sense that he wants to go back. you know, as he might say himself, never say never. They're crazy, too, like respectfully. Coaches are crazy people.

Like, they just become addicted to that lifestyle and the need to win and, like, just being in the office 40 hours a day when there's only 24, you know? Mike was ready for a break, though. Mike was ready to enjoy life and do something a little different. I didn't think he'd do TV. I really didn't. Just like, he's not somebody who, I think, wants to be scripted all the time.

But he's done a great job so far on NBC. I've been impressed. I have Mike high in my list of quarterbacks that you would see in a vacation destination with like Alley leading the Congolian. Like just like he's like leaning straight into retirement. He's going to be fun. No?

Okay. Yeah. Mike Tomlin, you're saying. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. No, I think I can very much as someone who doesn't know him, I can envision him enjoying this life being like, man, I didn't know this was possible.

I'm getting paid well. I'm talking about football. I get to relax a little bit. This is kind of more fun than coaching. Why was I going nine and eight all those years? What was I doing? All right. Sorry, Billy.

I sidetracked you with the stike and kind. What do we got? I love the side track. What's the next pre-fact here? All right. Here's a pre-facts. And this pre-facts was closer to fact than before. And then we were talking before the show.

And then the cracks started, you know, forming in the pre-foundation of this pre-facts. But I've done some digging and I've done some revision. I was fairly confident looking at the schedule that. I was going to give you five teams and with a high certainty to tell you that two of those three teams were not going to make the playoffs.

And then upon revision, I realized that those five teams, I was only this certain of two of those five teams. So I can tell you now, with 93.4% certainty, one of these two teams will be eliminated from the playoffs this weekend. She'll touched on this earlier today.

There's the danger of the, 0 and two teams. He gave you stats. He said since this, 16%. I was looking, I said, well, since 1970, 10.1%, then since 1990, it was 12.2%. Then we have, you know, a variance. We have 422 teams.

This has happened 43 times. And out of that, there's 288 times that this has happened to only 35 of those teams. So I kept looking and that I was digging. And of all of those numbers, I found out that just 19 times, six,

6% this has happened where a team has gone 0 and 2 in their division to start the season and made it to the playoffs. So only 6.6% of the time, which means 93.4% of the time it hasn't happened, which I feel like, I mean, this is math here. Okay, guys, we can't argue with this here. This is virtually a fact. This is a pre-fact. 93.4% of the time, a team that has gone 0% in their division does not make the playoffs.

And this week, we have the commanders and the cowboys who are each facing the possibility of going 0 and 2 in their division. So, guys, how do we feel? Pre-fact, one of these teams will be eliminated from playoff contention this week. I am so interested in how you got those numbers. I can't think about anything else. I can't think about, I can't. I'm so curious about what site you went to.

If you just did the Google thing where it gives you the thing at the top, and that's correct, like 47% of the time. Now that we're talking about numbers, whether you fact-checked it, double-checked it, whether you're using pen and paper, like when you picked every game to start the season. So if you want to give any details on that in a little bit,

that's fine. But okay, commanders, so you're saying commanders, Cowboys, if you lose, if you go 0 and 2, and they're both division games, you only have a 6.6% chance to make the playoffs. Well, 6.6% chance to win the division.

If they don't win the division, then they'd have to win a wild card, but there's so many variables. All the numbers, I told you, 422, 43, 288, 35, 12.2%, 10.1. It's just numbers of plenty. Yeah. Well, I think the Cowboys, you know, their defense, this is a nice spot to bounce back. If you can fix some of the stuff that ailed you in week one, the commander's offense certainly did not look like a juggernaut in week one, although I will say they put together

There are a couple really nice drives at the end of that game against Vic Fangio and the Eagles. It sort of felt like if Jade and Daniels had some time to throw at the end of that game, he could find open receivers. Like I don't think he played poorly. There were just a lot of snaps where he was dropping back and there was nobody open. And then he had to scramble and throw the football away. So you had that on one side of the ball. Commander's defense played pretty well in that game. If you look at it, I mean, the Eagles had 10 first downs in that entire football game.

So they gave up some explosive plays. but it wasn't like a horrible start for this new era of commanders football with the new OC David Blow and the new DC Durrante Jones. So I think they have a chance. This is, I know Billy was questioning whether there are rivalry games. I do feel like these fan bases dislike each other quite a bit. I like the Cowboys chances of bouncing back here.

But if they were to lose here, man, everyone would just be LOL Cowboys, you know, hyped them again. They'd be yelling at me. they'd be yelling at whoever else said this team could make the playoffs. Now they're 0 and 2 with losses to the commanders and giants. That would be a tough hole to dig out up, I think, for Dallas. I'm going to say pre-fiction with regard to one of these teams is eliminated. But looking at the schedule here, Billy, you're not making it easy on yourself if you

fall to O and 2 for either of these teams. Check out the upcoming schedule. So the commanders go home. First two on the road, both in the division. They then have three in a row at home. But the first one's against Seattle's. So you're facing the defending Super Bowl champs. That's a tough game.

They got the Colts and the Giants also at home. And then they're at San Francisco before the buy. So if you lose this one to fall to 0 and 2, like you're just trying to figure out, can we go two and two, maybe three and one, just stay afloat at the buy. The Cowboys might even be worse in terms of the schedule. They don't have their buy to week 14, by the way, which is, I believe, matches the latest buy in NFL history. after this game against the commanders, if they lose it home, okay, and they fall to 0-2,

find me a win here, home against Baltimore, at Houston, home against the Bucks, at Green Bay, at Philly. Those are their next five games. So the upcoming schedule does,

it puts the extra microchrome, yes, it's a one week at a time league, all that good stuff, but you fall to O and 2 and then you're looking at like, there's not like a lot of sunlight on the horizon,

right there, Sheel. I think this is a huge game. Absolutely for both these teams. And to go back to my original point in the first segment, with the Cowboys, everything feels bigger. And if it's the O and 2 Cowboys and they lose to the commanders in that mid-afternoon window with a bunch of the country watching, you will have absolute pandemonium.

And you wonder if, you know, Jerry keeps getting, I know he says this all the time, but he keeps dropping these hints that we're not afraid to make a big trade. we got a lot of financial flexibility. I mean, if you go 0 and 2 and you feel like you came into this season, you have George Pickens for one year, you know, you might not have him next year. Dak Prescott's going to be a year older. He's in his 30s.

Do you sort of feel that sense of urgency that we need to upgrade the talent here and maybe do something borderline reckless with it with the trade? So I like the take, you know, I don't know that anyone's going to run away with this division, but at the same time, I don't think either of these teams are good. enough where like if they go 0 and 2 to your point on there with the schedule like they're not going to go on a run where they're reeling off you know six seven in a row they're just too flawed the cowboy's defense is not nearly good enough and the commander's roster is too flawed for them to go on that kind of run so you know what billy i'm going to give you a wait what's is i keep

forget what's it called preface okay i'm going to give you a pre fact on this i think a loser this game they're out of the because you said division you didn't say playoff, you said division. We're going to, we'll expand it to the playoffs. Just come on. No, no, because it's easier for me to say pre-facts if it's division. So, yeah, I'm sure you, no one's going to be going through Billy's pre-fax and hold your accountable for this answer, Shiel.

Like, this is the automatic skip of this podcast. It's be real. You got one more? You got one more pre-fact for us, Billy? I do have another pre-fact. Now, this one comes with a helpful visual aid that I'm sending both of you right now. There's actually two visual aid. So I have just texted you the first visual aid.

I will text you the second visual aid. And if our lawyers allow it, we'll put this in the podcast. So you guys are probably familiar with the concept of the script in the NFL, correct? It's been a couple years now where we've been hearing about the script of the NFL, the script is released. And, you know, the NFL, the accusation among people within the pre-facts community think that maybe the outcome of the season is predetermined. and, you know, they're just following a script. And then, you know, if you start digging in the pre-fax community, you find out that since Super Bowl 56, that's now what?

Going to be five or six Super Bowls, if we count this year. Going back five years, the NFL has kind of given us a hint as to what the matchups will be in the Super Bowl based on the logo and the colors of the Super Bowl. So in Super Bowl 56, you look at the logo, and it was told to us in advance, this is going to be Bengals Rams, 57, look at the colors. Chiefs versus Eagles, 58, Chiefs 49ers, 59, Chiefs Eagles, 60s, Patriots versus Seahawks. So on February 9th, the NFL released their Super Bowl logo, which I have sent you, and you see the color scheme.

Now you see some oranges, you see some aquas, you see some shades of blue. If you're looking at the piping around the letters, there's some red, there's some yellow. So it's possible that on February 9th, they were already leaking part of the script. Now, we add to that last year, the NFL. put out just before the opener, an image of a representative of each team walking towards the Super Bowl stadium in San Francisco. And keen observers looked at that and they zoomed in and they said, well, hold on. They didn't notice this until the Super Bowl because they didn't realize that this was part of

the script. But they zoomed in and they're like, well, hold on a second. I believe that that is Sam Darnold and Drake May. And they are the closest ones to the stage. of the Super Bowl. And there's a little spoiler that was put out there by the NFL just before kickoff week one. Now, this year, the NFL has once again

put out an image such as that first one, which has keen observers zooming in to see who is there. And when you look at the Super Bowl logo, again, if we're allowed to put the Super Bowl logo in this, if you look at the Super Bowl logo, there's aquas. So people say, this is the dolphins? But no, no. There's another team.

that has an aqua-ish hue to it. Who might that be, Tom? Tom, you know the answer to this. Who might that be? That would be the Jaguars. The Jaguars. And if you look at clue number two, which you received shortly ago and you zoom in,

who is front and center and closest to the stadium? None other than Trevor Lawrence is the closest player to the stadium. Then you start looking, well, who might they play against? And you have to zoom in. and this is where things start getting a little bit murky because you can see Sequin is close to the front. Brian Burns of the Giant, which is kind of like a weird representative of the Giants.

He's close to the front. Jonathan Taylor might be up there in the front. So maybe it's not a situation. Maybe he's actually closer than Trevor Lawrence. And I'm sure that our visual team is just throwing this out there and you can just zoom in, if not just go to the NFL, and you can zoom in on your phone. Then you have Josh Allen.

He's off to the side. But is he close to the front kind of maybe taking a different route? I don't know. But if you're a believer in the script, which I feel like you are, Tom, because you know the happenings of the NFL, the ins and the outs, we already have two clues now

to tell us who's going to be in the Super Bowl this season. Well, then on top of that, you've got the reddish, orangish, secondary color. The person standing, I mean, I believe there's several very close to each other,

but if you're leaning into that color and looking who's standing to Trevor's right, I believe that's Bejan Robinson. I initially thought it was Bucky Irving. Yeah, no, there's some clues that are out there to throw you off. Yeah, there's some hints that are there to throw you off the scent a little bit, you know? Wait, I think, I haven't looked at this previously, Billy, but, you know, you just sent it to us. I do like this as a bit.

You texting Tom and I something as we're recording this, you know, that we didn't get these before. Pretty fast. So you sent us the logo and I see some orange in there. So initially I was thinking, all right, Broncos, maybe the Broncos. but then you said the teal and you're right. That is a definite. I think we can say with 100% certainty that the Jaguars are making the Super Bowl

because I see the teal and I see Trevor Lawrence. But here's the team you didn't mention. You know, because I was looking at the logo and I saw a little gray. I saw a little blue. And then I was really trying to look closely here because Saquan Barclay's next to Trevor Lawrence. Might there be Kelly Green in there in the mix somewhere?

We don't know. Well, you know who's standing next to Saquan Barclay and it looks like standing ahead of Sake-Warkley. Hello, Cowboy type colors. Dad Prescott. So the blue and the gray, so Cowboys, Jaguars, the official Super Bowl pick,

revisiony, what was it, revised? What was your idea, Billy? Revised podcasting, something like that earlier. Oh,

if you want to go back for a revision? Yeah. We change our Super Bowl pick, Jaguars Cowboys after week one. Wow. You just eliminated the Cowboys like three minutes ago with a loss on Sunday. She's revised.

they're going to win on Sunday. Now they're winning. He didn't know about the strict. We're the commanders. Jaden Daniels near the back. Okay. So that would track. All right.

For the prediction. Pre-facts. Pre-facts? Huh? Is that what your official stance was? I'm saying pre-fact because you can look at this art in like a hundred different ways.

No matter who's in it, you can come up with how it matched. So I'll go pre-facts because you can argue virtually anything. If you go back and look at last year's Super Bowl logo, it had every color under this. and pink in there. Like, they had everything at San Francisco is wild. So if you're saying, if you're implying that people were reading into it

after they already know the result, then I'm going to call pre-fiction on that. Yeah, no, I don't believe that at all. I don't think that's how the pre-fax community operates. I think if you look at some of the dark web conversations that had, that were taking place among that community during or before last season, I think they were on it. They knew what colors to pay attention to, I would say.

By the way, is Aaron Rogers, like, full-on ball? in this photo. Do you notice he's got Terry Bradshaw's hairline? I don't know if that's a shadow, a light, or if they literally made him bald. That's not nice if they did that. Did it dirty? Yeah, it seems like they made you do it. Miles Garrett in the back, already a tip right there.

Well, I mean, we should look into that and said, hey, maybe week one's not going to go great for Miles Garrett. They were trying to let us know. And by the way, who is the most front and center in that image? Sam Darnold, for those of you who are not looking at right now. Yeah, way back. He also got injured. May, by the way.

I didn't zoom in. Look at it on the iPad and I didn't have a great cue at it. All right, we still got more week two. Back to the field after this. Going on vacation, we're here for it. With kids who turned backseating to a courtroom drama over whose tabla is louder, whose charger is faster, and while watching the same cartoon for the hundred,

with time is a human right? Yep, we totally have vehicles to handle that. Because whether it's a road trip or a business trip, where your flight's delayed, your phone's at 2% and your dinner is whatever is open. Yeah, here for that too. Enterprise, we're here for it. A little bit of news as the show is playing out here

as we recorded on Wednesday morning. Mike McCarthy says Joey Porter Jr. will practice in full today. Practicing does not equal playing, but a step forward, at least in terms of Porter's participation. Also, Kevin Stefanski moments ago asked who's starting a quarterback on Sunday, says, we'll work through it. I'm not ruling anyone out, which might be Kevin Stefanski's most commonly used phrase over the course of his head coaching tenure, especially about the quarterbacks,

but Kevin also is not a, we're going to go on record on Wednesday about literally anything type of guy. But I would posit this to you, because it came up earlier of the, you know, Tua and whether or not that that impacts the foul. I would flip this around. And I think that we covered on the Monday show, the week one tends to be misleading at times, right? Like you see things, and then you get to the end of the season,

it was like, what in the world was that? Because nobody's played their guys in the preseason, and there's new schemes and all that, right? But based on what you've seen, Sheel, I'll start with you. Who right now is your favorite for the number one pick? All right. I pulled up the standings page here. I don't want to miss anybody.

I know I pitched before the season. Falcons, could that be a nice home for Arch Manning, who had the big comeback on Saturday night? I could see the Manning family being like, oh, that would be a nice place for our guy to land with that supporting cast, with the veteran coach, with Matt Ryan in the front office. Their defense was pretty good in week one, the Falcons.

And Bejan Robinson looked incredible in that game. So I wonder if they're going to maybe win. a few games in a bad division where they're not going to get that number one seed. I'm looking at the rest of the teams here. No one in the AFC West. I mean, no one I think in the NFC East. All right,

here's an interesting one. If the Tennessee Titans just suck this year, what do they do? What do they, what do the Titans do if they have the first overall pick? I mean, we really can't answer that right now. That's on my radar because that looked like a bad,

bad team. in week one against the New York jet. So I think they're in the running as well. But I think the favorite would have to be the Miami Dolphins. Just when you look at where they are organizationally, sorry. I don't know if I should say sorry to you or not, Billy, because you might be like, all right,

I know they're going to stink this year. That wouldn't be the worst situation. But when you look at where they are organizationally from a talent perspective, new coaching staff, new GM, they can kind of take the long view. They kind of told us this before the season, Jeff Halfley, that, you know, what? This season's not about winning a lot of games. It's about developing our young players.

So I think I go dolphins one. I might go Titans too, though, at this point, which would open up a very interesting situation about what they do with Cam Ward, whether they pick a quarterback or whether they stick with their guy. I'm on tankathon.com, which kind of breaks down teams that are tanking and where it is, teams might be drafting. Burliest visit ever before a week, too. Tankathon getting some love here. To be honest, if you too, I mean, through the first week, half of the league has lost, obviously. So I'm wondering how it is

that they've ranked a lot of these teams that are 0 and 1. So it's not the most helpful after one week, but it is a resource nonetheless. Shield, to your point about the Dolphins, if I go back to my I picked every single game of the season, I had the dolphins winning three games, which was not going to go well

for them. However, one of those games I had them winning was week one against the Raiders, and that did not go out well. So now there are two win team. Now there are two win team and among those wins I have thrown in there a week win a week eight win against the Patriots when they come to South Florida just because of the heat and humidity. So that is not an assured win. And then I was like they have to beat the Jets at least one to the two. So I'm not feeling good about any of those wins right now as a Dolphins fan. So 3 and 14 is looking rough. I feel like that's a good pick. I'm going to play the probabilities here

for who's going to get the number one pick. And I want to say the Jets because the Jets have three number one picks. So it doesn't even have to be their number one pick that gets them the number one pick. Unfortunately though, the Colts and the Packers are responsible for the other number one picks that they have.

And they're not really going to be in contention for the overall number one pick. So while they do have the greatest odds of getting the number one pick, because it's really one out of three almost for the Jets, that's not going to, actually that's not. math. It's one out of 10. So like 30%? Listen, I guess we're out of the pre-fix. And this is

pre-fiction where I just said one out of three because they don't have 10 options here at number one pick. But yeah, that would be something though. They have three chances to get the number one pick here. However, the Packers are not going to be the number one pick. The Colts are not going to be the number one pick. So the Jets are going to have to lose and lose plenty on their end. So I'll say they won. They won, week one. They did win against the Titans, which doesn't help the case. But I don't want to say the same team as Shield because then it's boring if we all agree. So I'm going to say the Jets. that the Browns don't improve overall,

then obviously they'd be in that mix too. They're very young. They've got a lot of really talented young players on that team. It doesn't appear that they have the quarterback, or at least that it's not the Sean Watson. At some point, Chaturre Sandals get his look, maybe Dylan Gabriel, too. They have two first-round picks.

The other one belongs to the Rams. I don't anticipate the Rams losing more games than everybody in the NFL. The Cardinals would have been on that list for me, too, going into the season, but they also started out 1-0, being a Chargers team, what I would say is easily the biggest upset of week one, does that even out over the course of time?

They have had time to build up that roster. He already saw Michael Fleur getting more out of the skill spots than they have in the past. The fact that they're healthy, like a year ago on offense, that definitely helps them. And the defense was better. We'll see how that plays out. I do tend to lean toward the dolphins,

but they may end up, Billy, in the same spot that, you know, was with Brian Flores. I said earlier, you could have been coach of the year for winning five games. Like, Jeff Hathley is going to have those guys in a lot of games. They're going to overachieve. It's just a matter of does that translate to winning some of those games or just being a fun watch and losing enough to get the number one pick? They've been very upfront, Halfley and John Eric Sullivan, about what this is, and this

is a reset. In my mind, this is all about building to 2028. And the vision is three-year build. We get all the cap cleaned out. We start from scratch. We build around like the Devon A chance of the world. But, you know, trade Jalen Waddle. Pay Malik Willis bridge quarterback money, but we still have the flexibility.

I still lean toward the dolphins, but they're one of those teams that just because they're going to be well coached, I could see screwing it up and winning so many games that they fall out of the top five. You know, that all plays into it. Injuries play a part in it too. And also, you know, the league goes now. if you get toward late in the season, and we've seen it a little bit. All of a sudden,

maybe you shut down guys a little sooner than you otherwise would and make sure that you're putting guys out there who might be less likely to win. Yeah, saw that with the Raiders last year with Max Crosby. Eagles did it a couple years ago, sitting some guys,

but you have me thinking now, if you are Archmanning or whoever you think is going to be the number one overall picked, and, you know, he's probably not looking at this, but like if I were Archmanning's family members, I'd be paying close attention to the,

the NFL. All right, what are the teams that we could possibly go to here? So you have Miami, you have Cleveland, you have Tennessee, Billy. Like if you're, if you're looking at those three, here's how I would kind of handicap. And I would say, Cleveland right now is in the best spot in terms of the roster. I think, now there's a lot of unknowns there, but they have like, they do have some young talent there, I think, where you could say, okay, if they got some wide receivers, they drafted a left tackle, they've got a tight end, they've got a run. They've got a running back. At least there are some pieces there offensively, but as an organization, it has not gone well for them in a very long time. Tennessee, it has not gone well for them since they got

rid of Mike Frable. It has been a disaster there in Tennessee. But, you know, Manning's Tennessee. Maybe there's some intrigue there, smaller market. Maybe the microscope's not going to be on you as much. And then there's Miami, which, you know, if you're in your 20s with a lot of money, Miami seems like it might be a fun place there. Billy, do you want to give the sell for, hey, come to Miami, Arch. This is where you want to come next year. I think Peyton Manning, didn't he have a home down here in South Florida? Because I remember before he went to Denver, I believe.

He flew into town and they were chasing him down with news helicopters as his car was driving around town. And it's like, he's here. He's going to be a dolphin. And it's like, no, I think he's just. in town because he lives here. Now we're just kind of stalking him on his way home. The dolphins have had the strangest quarterback situation over the last decade, I think, out of a lot of teams.

Not like disastrously bad, like these are all misses. But, okay, let's say that they get arch or they're going to get another quarterback here after they've just signed Malik. This is after Tua, where Tua, you know, looked great prior to all of the concussion injuries. And was that Tua? Was that Mike McDaniel? was that Tyreek Hill. Like, it was really all three of them.

Like, it was just kind of like a good combination of the three of them. Because we saw Mike McDaniel didn't look great that last week. But, like, there was that combination. Then Tua, prior to that, had Brian Flores, who he, Brian Flores did not want to. I don't think that anyone thought that Brian Flores wanted to it. He was not excited about that situation. Tua came out and has spoken against Brian Flores. And we kind of talked about that a little bit because it was like, he was a tough coach.

And I guess that's not what Tua wanted. Then we got Mike McDaniel, who was, kind of as a soft coach and seemed to lose total control of his team towards the end there. So that didn't work out for Tua. Then prior to Tua, and we've touched on this a little bit, there was a situation where there's conversations of, and this may or may not play into why it is that Brian Flores was like, oh, there is that loss of this out there where there was rumors going around

that there may or may not have been a meeting that was set up by owner Stephen Ross on a yacht to bring Tom Brady in prior to him. Billy. What do you mean? I think that's a, that's a, was a meeting, right? Well, you know, probably may or may not. The NFL docked him a first round pick and suspended the owner for the Tom Rudy put on Payton-Camprey.

May or may not have had a meeting, a secret meeting on a yacht, which Brian Flores said, you know what, I'm not, I'm not going to go on that yacht. I'm a man of principle. I would never try to skirt the issues. But also, like, maybe Deshaun Watson, if he wants to come, I'll be cool coaching him, which is like, hold on. Not part-time principles here. They're the principal that we're not.

Are we referred to Sean and we're not for Tom Bray? What's going on here? So there's that whole situation. And then we had like Fitzpatrick was here. And it's been a weird go here. So I would say this, Manning family, while you may or may not have a residence down here in South Florida, stay as far away from this team as possible for the goodness of Arch.

You do not want Arch down here in Miami. Okay. Starting quarterbacks for the Miami Dolphins, primary passer. Let's put it that way. For the Miami Dolphins going back to 2006 when they famously failed Drew Brees on a physical and then pivoted and went to Dante Cole Pepper. All right. Primary quarterbacks for the dolphins by year.

Joey Harrington. Cleo Lemon. Chad Pennington. Chad Henney twice. Matt Moore. Five years of Ryan Tannahill. Six out of seven years was Ryan Tanyhill. Jay Cutler.

2017, Ryan Fitzpatrick for two, then Tua, and so far this season, Malik Willis. That is a run. Who was the Bears quarterback? Oh, my God, I'm blanking on it. The Dolphins fans were cheering for his name, and he was like not a good Bears quarterback. It was- I'm just saying random Bears quarterback. Kyle Orden. They wanted Kyle.

They were chanting for Kyle Orden to be treated to the Dolphins in pre-season. Things are bad. And here's a fun fact, if you look it up. and I'm pretty sure there's a fun fact, not a fun fiction. The Dolphins team doctor at the time that did not clear Drew Breeze, and this is someone that Nick Saban, I'm pretty sure is not aligned with. Because Nick Saban will come out and tell anyone that will listen, like, I wanted Drew Breeze.

I told him I wanted Drew Breeze. So the doctor, I believe, that said, yeah, this is a no-go. The father of Danny Connell, media member. Danny Connell's father is the one that said, no, we can't do this with Drew Breeze. He's not going to be in shape to be a quarterback. And that's pre-fact? I'd buy it to the pre-fact

if then the quarterback had become Danny Cannell. Then I would buy it. Yeah. There you go. Dr. Cannell. Thank you to everybody for listening and watching

today. We are back on Friday. Enjoy Thursday night. Football Bills, Lions will break it all down. On the Friday pod, we'll make the picks in the ringer 107. Is that the number? 107. I don't know that.

The Ringer 107. I didn't get to participate last week. We'll be here for that. For Billy, Sheel, Arjuna, Chris, everybody behind the scenes. I'm Tom.

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