Will More Strikes on Iran Accomplish Anything? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS
00:00This episode is presented by Vair Watches.Go to Vairwatches.com slash the team house.Hey, guys, we're back.Welcome to Aizond Geopolitics.I'm Dmitz Contaccos.I'm here with Jonathan Hackett and Andy Milburn.Jonathan Hackett, big, big week.He became a new dad.
00:17Congratulations, Jonathan.Thank you.Beautiful.Love is love, and that's amazing.I don't know what you say to people who just have, yeah, plus you didn't do shit.Your wife did all the work, so.Yep, she's still doing it.Congratulations.
00:30Thank you.Andy Milburn still jacked as always in Saudi, dodging drones and ballistic missiles.A lot happening, as usual.I'm going to start off with what's going on with Iran.There's been reports.New York Times reported it too that the U.S. and Israel are preparing options for another round of the strikes against Iran,potentially targeting nuclear facilities, missile systems, energy infrastructure.You could tell we've seen it like only OSCE and channels like we're,
00:59moving military personnel all around the region,kind of emptying out Jordan, Carter, Kuwait.The embassies also got, didn't they get like an alert to evacuate all non-essential and stuff,Riyadh and other places.Obviously, Iran says if they get hit, they're going to start hitting, you know, otherGulf facilities, data centers, AI infrastructure, anything that's American linked.Also, another, I guess not a fundamental.fact, it's probably a shitty fact, is
01:31October was the mostin the Strait of Hormuzwere the most attacks on shippingsince the war began.So who the hell knows? You haveBibi Nanyahu campaigning for prime ministerand stuff. Their elections are happening onTuesday, the 27th.
01:52And I don't know if this is just stump speech,you know, talking smack campaigning, but he's sayinghow like Iran is again.and building towards a nuclear weapon.We've heard this song and dance before.Last week, Hegsa showed up for an unannounced visit with Bibi Netanyahu,and it's been reported that it's to talk about potential strikes on Iran.You have the Houthis as well.
02:18Keep on hitting Saudi Arabia.They've hit the airport a bunch of times we were talking offline just now,how, like, you know, pretty consistent it's been.There's been fatalities.It's been ongoing.And Saudis seem to be having the same trouble we're having with Iran when they start attacking our bases and other things in the area is they seem to be using Patriots and Thads to knock down drones.You know, the super expensive stuff to drop down like the stuff that's not so expensive.So a lot happening as usual.
02:50Where do you guys want to start?And do you go first?Yeah, well, there's, you know, there's a ton to talk about.So, you know, obviously, as always, we'll keep this open source.It's incredible how much you can learn from open source, isn't it?And I know John will be able to put in on this with far more expertise.But when I commanded the Siegersodaf, God, I hate that term, that sounds so.When I had the Seedisotiv in Iraq, one of my, not an Intel guy,
03:26a seal, I'm ashamed to say, said, hey, you know, sir, we need an open source. He called it a socialmedia exploitation cell, right? I had no idea what that meant. So we started one and, you know,we got most of our intel through that. You know, I'm not talking, obviously not all of ourintel. I mean, we were targeting level intel. We got, we had to cooperate and get through othermeans, but most of the stuff to include BDA, 100% BDA came from that open source cell.And then later at Soxent, we established the same.And I'm sure now, you know, every unit, special operations or not, is doing the same thing.But it, you know, the lessons of 7 October show how much any organization can learn from open source.
04:24So without leading, yeah.So to begin with all, yes, the wording here in Saudi Arabia from the U.S. State Department isordered evacuation of all non-emergency personnel, which is like, I think that is the second most serious.You know, the first, of course, is evacuation of everyone as happened in Kiev when the Russians invaded.And this was the next one down.You know, so it's not, there's a difference between emergency and essential, right?Emergency are really the skeleton crew.So it means that the consulates and places like Jetta being closed down,
05:09all families are being moved out deadline this week.I won't say exact what, you know, what days.So that's significant.You can see also from the DNI's report to Rubio this week,that I think the wording was high risk to U.S. citizens in the region.And so you'll see the effects of that, not only ordered departure from here in Riyadh, but voluntary evacuations.And I think, I believe, and I could be wrong, but I believe the audit evacuations now in Jordan of U.S. personnel, State Department and their families.Flights into Riyadh, no foreign carriers are flying into Saudi Arabia right now.
06:17Very few flights out of Riyadh.I believe there's like one or two this morning.Jetta's been the main airport.Jetta was actually hit the other day,but got back into operation in short order.So, you know, I mean, it's incredible how much pain the Houthis are causing,you know, as far as not just in the ban,but across here, across the kingdom, Saudi Arabia,
06:44a lot of foreign help here,everything from targeting to air,We've got Royal Air Force, British Royal Air Force,Typhoons overhead, assisting with air defense.We've got Greek and French air defense crews here, Ukrainians.So it's a, you know, it's an international effort.On the messaging, you know, forces, I mean, this is, again,the forces are right.
07:20the forces are arriving.It's clear that U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for strikes.Could be after the midterms.The Israelis seem to think that it's going to occur before the midterms.Maybe because they're going to kick it off, right?I mean, you've probably seen IDF have canceled leave.And there is a lot of talk about strikes beginning around the Israeli election.which are on the 27th.
07:55We talked about here build up in the Gulf,third carrier group on its way.There will be the second Marine Expeditionary Unit,which really doesn't amount to much, right?It's going to be about 4,000 Marines here,not enough for a ground operation,but certainly, you know, messaging.And the talk is now of a short, sharp campaign, right?
08:20although we heard that before.The February campaign rested on the same logic.We killed the...Yeah, I was going to say, didn't we hear that about six, eight months ago?Nine months ago?Yeah, so this time there's talk about going after energy infrastructure.But, and of course, you know, nuclear facilities, Pekax Mountain, and we can talk aboutthis in more detail, but there's some real issues here, right?
08:46Because if we go after, if we do go after...energy infrastructure. It's a two-ed sword and now it makes energy infrastructure and desalinationplants throughout the Gulf potential targets at a time when interceptors are low and everyone'sstruggling with the air defense picture. Also, it's not going to do wonders for the price of oil,which is basically one of the fundamental main assessments, right, for this administrationto bring around to the negotiating table.And then, you know, as far as nuclear facilities,and we can talk about this, more death, but it's, no pun intended.
09:26But there's, yeah, it appears unlikely that we would be able to reach.I mean, if Iran's got its shit in one bag, right, which has shown the ability to do,there's dreadful grammar there.But it will have buried its centrifuges deeper and dispersed that uranium.So going after these things, it's not going to be as easy as it was before.We weren't even 100% successful before.And again, we have the problem of interceptors,and we haven't been terribly effective at going after launches by our own US intelligence estimates, right?
10:09Anyway, so all a great period of great uncertainty.And at top of that, of course, we had the attack in Karak and Jordan nine killed and some 40 wounded.There is talk in the Jordanian media that it's the Islamic State, but the Islamic State hasn't claimed responsibility yet.And whoever did it is still at large hasn't been found.How is that right for quick leading?Incredible.there's a record for you in terms of shortest time.Come on.
10:50On the Jordan attack, actually, that's a really big deal because the Jordanian securityservices like the GID, the General Intelligence Directorate and so on.They're very good about keeping Jordan under wraps as far as security.The fact that this small Christian minority was attacked in Jordan is unprecedented.It's very, very unusual in decades in Jordan for this to happen.You know, some people might say, well, why is this going on?in Jordan, and I always point to Abu Musab al-Zarkawi. He's from Zarqa in Jordan. The Islamicstate, some of the people that were the high-level people in Islamic State were from Jordan originally.
11:26So there's long been this kind of simmering Sunni anti-Christian activity in Jordan, but the governmenthas kept it under wraps. And that's a big reason why a lot of those Jordanian extremists went toIraq after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, because they couldn't really do anything in Jordan.And Jordan was the place, you know, where a lot of this stuff, especially in the Palestinian refugee camps outside of Zarqa.And Zarq and Jordan, just for context, is walking distance from Mwafak-Salti Air Base, which is the primary target that Iran has been striking through its surrogates in Jordan.So again, kind of like bringing this all together.Zarqa is not this small island separate unto itself.It's a piece of this larger anti-Western puzzle that Iran is exploiting in the region.
12:12and it would not surprise me if there was some link to Iran in this attack,which sounds kind of obvious for me saying it,but understanding Jordan's security infrastructure,it's kind of a surprise that whoever was behind it was able to actually execute this attackbecause of how strongly Jordan clamps down on this activity throughout the country.And the GID, General Intelligence Directorate,has an excellent relationship with the United States.So the fact that the U.S. also didn't know what was going on is another kind of big surprise.
12:40at the same time, back to the ordered departure issue with embassies, we just mentioned that, you know, the U.S. Embassy in Jordan, by the way, it's the fifth largest embassy on the planet. The largest embassy on the planet is in Baghdad. So two of the largest embassies in the world are within rocket distance of each other. And these are on reduced staffing already. So with the ordered departure, this is a special kind of U.S. State Department signal, basically drawing embassy levels down. So all the family members go home.Also, many of the people at the embassy who are considered non-essential are also sent somewhere else in the region, usually to a hotel in another country that's safe until they're called back.So you have just a skeleton crew operating the embassy.And this includes some intelligence personnel who might otherwise be their analysts, for example, or support staff who would normally be in the embassy, in the chancery being able to update decision makers about activity happening like this attack in the Christian funeral.Normally you'd have a very robust U.S. presence and right now is reduced.So we actually have a bit of vulnerability there on our intelligence gathering and reporting to our host nation partners, to our liaison partners like the GID.If we had information, we might not actually be able to see it because the people who are normally there reporting on it are somewhere else because the larger threat in the region.And I'll just go through kind of why these departures mean something as far as signal versus noise and what to anticipate coming up with U.S. resumption of activities possibly.
14:04So there's two types of departures that state department issues.one is authorized departure. That's a voluntary departure. So family members can leave if they want to.They don't have to. Some embassy staff will be told, hey, you're not essential. You can go if you want,but you can also stay. There's a risk. Ordered departure is different. That's when they actuallysend you home and you have no choice. What we're operating on right now is the ordered departure,the more serious departure. This is a signal. This is not noise. And we saw it in Saudi Arabiawhere that was an ordered departure and that's in the media.It's a publicized thing.
14:38It can't be held secret, right?There's another thing called restricted staffing.Restricted staffing does not have to be published in the media.Many of the embassies in the Middle East right now are now on restricted staffing.In other words, they're on something like an ordered departure, but they're not saying thatbecause they don't want the public to know that.And now doing a little bit of inference, you'd have to ask, why aren't they doing an ordereddeparture. It's because they don't want the public tracking all of these things. And when I say the public,
15:02that means the global public, including Iran, looking at what's going on inside the Gulf and the MiddleEast generally and saying, why are all the embassy staff leaving? They only do that when there's about to be a waror they see some threat or, you know, a combination of these things. So looking at that signal,combined with the order of departure in Saudi Arabia, there is something either anticipated or planned.So when I say anticipated, I mean the U.S. expects Iran to do something or planned. In other words,the U.S. is going to do something, probably one of those two things is coming up soon. So withoutmaking predictions, they're saying this will happen. These are some signals kind of blinking to me,saying that something is certainly coming up. This is not the end of the war. This is not the status
15:41quo. The U.S. is not going to stay at this level of attacks, and neither will Iran. And I think we canlook at the Houthis to further bolster that assessment. Because what to me is happening isIran is relying on the Houthis to keep this conflict simmering and not at zero because they have to keep some pressure.You know, when you're fighting an adversary, even if you're a lull in combat, you still have to continue putting some degree of pressure even a little bit to stay at the edge of the initiative.And both sides are trying to do that in different ways.And it's likely that Iran is either planning a defensive or offensive or offensive pincher kind of concept where if if things escalate, Iran is going to attack in the Bab al-Mandab and the.the Straits of Hormuz at the same time, which they didn't really do in the last iteration of thisconflict. And I think they probably consciously did not do that because they didn't want to play all
16:31their cards at the same time. And we talked about this back in March that, you know, it was eerilyquiet on the hootie front. Well, that eerie quiet is now loud. And it's the loudest part of theconflict actually right now. And I think that was intentional. That was not an accident or thehooties operating independently. Instead, this was a conscious strategic move to keep the hooties in theback pocket at the beginning and then play them later.toward the election time in the U.S. and Israel so that there is some heat on this pot when it'stime to escalate. Instead of having a cold pot, no one's involved. Yes, they are involved now,and they're actually leading things. In Iran, you see the IRGC actually doing planning and
17:08operational things inside of schools, hospitals, civilian facilities. They've already transitioned todoing that. They weren't doing that before. Probably the reason they're doing that is becausewhen they expect the U.S. to escalate to attack infrastructure like salinization plans,and electrical grids and so on and bases, they're going to be in civilian infrastructure,which makes it much harder for the U.S. to actually strike operational facilities.So the U.S. will be able to strike infrastructure to cripple their ability to do some things,but planning and operations will still be able to be done through IRGC operations in civilianinfrastructure. So they're going to increase the cost on the U.S. public messaging side for strikes.
17:48So, for example, if you want to strike where a general officer is doing planning, you're going tohave to destroy a school, which then gives Iran the ability to amplify that school strike,even though we succeeded militarily in killing that general, we also blew up a school.So I think they're thinking ahead on this about how can we cause difficulty domesticallyinside the United States in iteration number two, which will probably start after the elections.Hey, Jack, what's going on?Guess who our new presenting sponsor is. Tell us about it.We've heard a lot over the last few years about whether it's possible to build things.
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21:26But the, because there's a whole ton of things that the GID have stopped.There are things that we know about and there are things that we haven't known about.But you just need to look at Jordan's position and, and it's demographics to understand that the GID has been remarkably successful in keeping the lid on the pot.You know, back to Iran, we, you know, we're in this in position again that, and John slated out really well.I mean, Iran knows that it can't win a conventional fight with the United States, so it doesn't try to.And its aim here is going to be to make the war so costly, too costly and too long for Washington and its partners.I mean, this talk about a three-day campaign is aspirational, it's real wishful thinking, I think.And Iran, undoubtedly, knows the U.S. wants a short campaign that keeps pump prices, I want to say low, relatively low.
22:28So it's counterstroke's designed, it's going to be designed to do the opposite, right?It's going to drag the war out.It's going to push up oil prices, and it's going to spread pain across the region, as it's already happening here in Saudi Arabia.And it said so openly, you know, its officials now are saying, hey, if this escalates again,again, it's not going to be short.So I think, you know, we're going to see a large missile and drone barrage.I mean, according to the Israelis, now, of course, they have an incentive for perhaps beefing this up.But I think, you know, John, you can bear me out probably on this.
23:08But U.S. intelligence estimates too suggest that Iran has between, you know, a thousand, I know, a wide range,1,600 ballistic missiles left in its inventory.Also, who knows how many, a large number of drones.No one knows exactly how many.And then you've got targets.It's a target-rich environment here, right?We already talked about the interceptor problem.You've still got U.S. bases.
23:37You've got, but aside from that, across the Gulf countries,say, you know, let's not talk about Israel for the moment.Across Gulf countries, you've got critical infrastructure.infrastructure spread. I mean, Saudi Arabia is the size of Western Europe, and it's got criticalinfrastructure, energy infrastructure, oil refineries, water desalination plants, which are a big deal.It's what all of these countries are concerned about, because they all depend to a degreeabove 50% on their desalination plants for water. Iran knows all that. Iran knows that interceptorstocks are low. So its tactics can be volume and persistence, wearing down defenses over days
24:23rather than a single, you know, massive strike. And, you know, Toronto's already said,hey, we're going to go after energy facilities. We're going to go after data centers, right,which would be a big deal. We're going to go off to undersea internet cables across theGulf. And a U.S. official has, I forget where I read this, but estimated.that the cost of those things, or just data centers, undersea cables, around $2 trillion, right?The aim is going to be to bring pressure on the Gulf states.I mean, the Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and the East Westand the Iraqi militias attack on the East West pipeline is kind of the template.
25:10And I think we're going to see more of that.We're going to see escalation in Hormuz, mines,maybe fast boat attacks. We haven't destroyed their fast boat inventory. Anti-ship missiles,which can be lobbed now from anywhere within Iran against shipping. Insurance rates are already sky high.They're not going to go down until the Iranians agree to go to negotiate a ceasefire. That's the onlything that's going to bring them down. Not military pressure, not forcing convoys through the straits.But that is a fact of life that I'm not sure. I'm not sure the administration.realization realizes. And then you've got the proxies on every front. You've got the Houthis. We've
25:51already talked about them here. A very sophisticated enemy, despite what people, you know, their image ofthe Houthis as these flip-flop wearing, you know, tribal, primitive kind of fibers.Hachewing maniacs, yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, they are car chewing, you know, but they're extremelyresilient and tough. And they have, as we talked about, their own indigenous capabilities.to manufacture technologically sophisticated weapons with remarkably accurate guidance systems.They need to be taken seriously, and they're not necessarily at the beck and core of Iran, too.You've got Iraqi militias who've launched tracts and rockets against U.S. bases and most recentlysevered the East-West pipeline here in Saudi Arabia.
26:41You've got the potential for cyber attacks against, you know, the Iran's proven to be.pretty good at those against golf, against U.S. energy, water, banking, communications networks,all of these things.You know, when I read about, look, Iran, John and I have spent a large chunk of our careersworking against Iran.What we're saying here is, hey, we need to make peace because Iran's a good, you know,no, we're not saying that at all.But the whole Sun Tzu thing of never underestimate your enemy doesn't seem to be figuring
27:16high in foreign policy deliberations right now. And to cap it all, you have the announcement at the,what was it at the, at Doha, at the Global Security Forum, right? Tom Barack is a U.S.ambassador to Turkey and Trump's special envoy for Syrian Iraq. And he said, look, AmericaAmerica as guarantor of security for the last 80 years, we're no longer there.Basically, that's what he says.We're going to, so he's basically saying, hey, guys, you're on your own, right?Which is not a message that was received well in this part of the world.And who knows?
28:09I mean, he may have been misinterpreted, but clearly that the actions that are taking placein consonants, it seemed to back up that messaging.At least that's how it's perceived right now by Gulf countries.And this was a clearer statement yet of the shift.Gulf states have sensed for the last year.Washington still wants to partnership,but no longer offers, you know, this guarantee of security.And it explains why countries in the Middle East and in the Gulf are, you know,
28:40they're banding together.They're calling on France and the UK,for air defense.Greece.And at the same, yeah, and at the same time, you know,Barack's messages defend yourselves,and yet the U.S. is preparing a new Iran campaignwhose retaliation would fall hardest on the Gulf states.
29:00So, you know, all of this, it's not sitting easy here right now.You know, it takes a lot of time to prepare your own defensesif you're a Gulf country.And for decades, the U.S. since, like, let's say 1991,consistently the U.S. has said,we will supply much of your security in exchange for access, basing, and overflight.So those countries developed their defenses around that idea that the U.S. would defendin specific critical areas.
29:28And with a short period of time, the U.S. is saying, we're not doing that anymore.So those states are now very vulnerable because they relied on the promise that we made tothose allies and partners, that we would fill that gap and those states wouldn't have to.I'm sure that if those states back in 1991 knew the U.S. was not going to be there,they would have developed their own air defense systems either organically or with a differentpartner, let's say with Russia or Europe or even China to defend themselves because it's theirsovereign territory. They have to defend themselves.I think we said that.
29:57Go ahead, John. I'm sorry. I think we, I mean, part of that was, you know, we wanted themto buy our weapons, our F-16s and RF-35s and our whatever, you know.Right. I mean, we even saw kind of the encroachment of Russia in this calculation for thesestates happened with Turkey specifically about six years ago.when Turkey wanted to buy S-400s from Russia.We said, Turkey, you can't do that.If you do that, you can't use the F-35.So there was this decision point where there was another competitor, a security competitor in the region
30:27that was trying to edge the United States out.And that was exactly what happened in Turkey.And that's going to happen again.This is how political realism works.The states in the Gulf are going to say, we are exposed.How do we defend ourselves?How can we do that quickly?And another state's going to come along, whether that's China or Russia or even the European
30:43Union and they're going to say, we can help you at this price. And those states are going to say,we have to accept this because we can't be naked in the face of Iranian retaliation when theU.S. has just told us that we can't be protected. And that is a loss for the United States that isvery difficult, if not impossible, to recover after those states are attacked and cannot defend themselves.Also, you are seeing China now, they're able to field their own stuff in mass. Like, if I'm Saudi or anyother Gulf country, it's probably an enticing offer.Like, you're going to get hardware probably for cheaper, you know, probably on par,slightly, like right on par below U.S. level stuff.
31:27It kind of seems like a no-brainer, frankly.And China's defense industrial base is growing.I mean, there were some defense analysts saying that in the next coming decade or two,like China's going to be providing Russia with a lot of their stuff.Well, not only that, you got China's Noreenko.Noreenko is a very big Chinese defense industrial-based state control to entity producing and selling directly to Yemen Houthi forces these pieces of ballistic missiles.Some of them are dual use.Some of them are not dual use.
31:58And the ones that are not dual use are like pieces of tail fins and heat reflectors and things like that that are used for these strikes on Saudi Arabia right now.And there was a great Wall Street Journal article a few weeks ago that exposed this to the public so the open source can see this, that China is actually selling this.stuff to the Houthis. At the same time, they're also selling stuff to the Emirates and othercountries, drones, for example, certain types of drones. For a while, especially during Trump1, the U.S. was trying to prevent that because, again, we were still competing with and alsohelping our allies and partners with this stuff. We actually were trying to offset those dronesales by giving them our drones with special promises attached to that to help that make it moreenticing. Now that's got, that enticement's gone. So states like the Emirates and others in the
32:42Gulf are going to look to China and say, hey, we need those drones now. So very similar to actuallythe Iran-Iraq war when the U.S. was supporting both Iran and Iraq to drive them down against each other,not to help either side win. China is actually taking on a similar sort of analogous role where they'resupplying both sides of the conflict, not to help either side win, but to degrade the United Statesand the region. That's the ultimate goal so that that competitor of the United States is weaker vis-a-vis China.Yeah, you know, with all the talk about the military campaign, economic pressure, as we've talked about here,and increasingly smart economic pressure focused on the IRGC and bringing that aperture narrow and narrow appears to probably be most likely to bring real pressure on Iranand the thing most likely to force Iran to the negotiating table.
33:39the chest banging and the military movement of military assets and the campaign, you know, military campaign itself, as we talked about, is likely to be, you know, far less for a number of reasons, all the reasons we talked about.The difficulty of conducting an air campaign, a purely air campaign, to achieve the objectives that had been outlined.I'd say difficulty and possibility, basically.And the fact that once, that that is the, that is the terrain on which Iran can, can bolster its position as far as strategic communications concerned.You know, look, we are withholding, we are holding against attacks from the two of the most, two of the most, the most advanced military country on Earth, United States.its partner, Israel, and just that term, its partner, Israel.I don't think that the administration realizes what a strategic communication victory that isfor Iran to be able to paint the United States as a proxy of Israel the way it is, you know.
34:57So all of that together, it doesn't matter, you know, what, it almost doesn't matter how effectivethis campaign is.But it's, as I said, the reasons we already said, it's unlikely to be that, that effective.It's interesting that the New York Times talks about a three-day campaign.I think that's, you know, I mean, that's probably viable.You think about it at day one.You're going after, you know, using EW, using cyber attacks on air defense, command, control.Using, you know, as I said, EW for space-based jamming, blind radars,
35:34satellite links, air missile defenses, you know, all those things to take out the IADs.And then, well, that's, you know, shaping.And then day one, you're going after destruction of the IADs.And maybe you'd have to hit, you'd have to hit Pickax Mountain Fordone, the Tans, and Isfahanon the first day with, you know, with GBU7s.But as we talked about, Iran's very likely, unless they're incompetent, they're very likely buriedtheir centrifuge workshops beyond the range of those bombs.You know, they're probably, you know, 80, 90 feet down in concrete.
36:15And then, you know, we talked about going after the economy militarily,power stations, gas processing plant at South Paz, petrochemical plants,but then again, that opens up, as we said, our golf partners,the same type of targeting.And if we hit refineries, then again, we're not doing.going wonders for the oil. And then going off the missile and drone production, the missilelaunches, how much more successful can we hope to be? And it's just hard to see, it's hard to see,yes, we can have clear objectives for this military campaign, but they're not likely to achieve
36:55policy objectives, which is bring Iran to the negotiating cable, right?Well, it's interesting because our military objectives appear to be dictated by Iran right now.Because at the beginning of the conflict, we have to remember this was about nuclear facilities all the way back to June last year.It was about the nuclear weapons program, ballistic missiles, the things that the JCPOA left out initially.Iran in some ways masterfully redirected the way the U.S. was attacking this conflict, changed the objectives in flight.and now we are doing things that were not the state of, we had a nebulous, you know, statement of goals to begin with.Iran kind of capitalized on that nebulous state of goals and pushed us toward the Straits of Hormuz very dramatically, very quickly.It has still got us focusing on the Straits of Hormuz, not just in the military, but in domestic U.S. discussions about the conflict.
37:50It's about the Straits of Hormuz, the price of gas, things related to that that had nothing to do with the original salvo of strikes back in June 2025.when we were striking those nuclear facilities,which we claimed to be obliterated,using very high, powerful ordinance on those facilitiesdid not destroy them.And then we did it again in February 28th.And as you mentioned, Andy, like,these massively, the massive ordinance bomb,
38:15the Moab and all these things,the daisy cutter,these do destroy the soil and things like that.But if the facilities have been designed to be so deep,to be resistant to this,I mean, we're basically wasting a very,very expensive weapons for no reason. And in fact, it's actually giving Iran even more PR victoriesbecause they can say that our program is so strong that it survived at the Great Satan's largest
38:37non-nuclear strikes on the planet and so on. So we're almost like giving them narrative fodder to use.And they've thought ahead about this. That's why they designed these facilities these ways.And if the war is not even about the nuclear facilities anyway anymore, these strikes are almosta side quest when they were the main point to begin with. But now the point is gas prices, energy,you know, this kind of stuff that they pointed us toward and we took the bait in some ways.That would be somebody with like a strategic thought in their head. And I don't think, I think,this White House and this Department of Defense is lacking in those people, particularly at the very top.Yeah, we haven't really kept control of the initiative that we first started with against the ballistic missiles and nuclear material.
39:23And maybe, maybe this is a reset. Maybe this is 2.0 when we hit after the elections. We refocus on things.we've had time to think about and assess what we've been doing, maybe there will be a shift backtoward the main objective to begin with. That is nuclear facilities. That is uranium enrichment andstopping the enrichment, getting the material out of the country or making it neutral and notuseful by, you know, blowing it in place essentially. Or regime change or something like that.I mean, these are the stated goals initially back in January, February while this was ramping up.So maybe the U.S. will refocus back onto those things. The challenge is, you know, your enemy getsto vote, as General Matt have said. And the enemy's been thinking about this too. So they've been
40:04anticipating for a very long time. They've been licking their wounds, especially since July,thinking about, okay, if the U.S. does one of those three things that I just mentioned, how do wereact and capitalize on those things in response? And I think we've seen the past year or so,the U.S. has been doing a poor job and understanding how the enemy is thinking about these things.And the enemy's been doing a great job thinking about how the U.S. is going to do what it willdo next and already having a prepackaged response both in the information environment and in themilitary environment to counter that.Yeah, you know, one thing that's kind of kind of interesting.
40:39Hey, Dee, I saw you ask me to log off.Was that because you're getting tired of me?No, no, no, because your internet was unstable, but it seems to have started working again,so you're good to go.That was a while ago.Yeah.Another factor playing in, of course, is that is really, really, you know, is really, you know,elections are on Tuesday.
40:58Tuesday.Yeah, right?So, and both Netanyahu and his defense minister Katz are saying openly that the goal of warwith Iran now is to bring down the regime, right?So it's very different than what the U.S. administration is saying.And Netanyahu has framed his election around who will finish the job.So, you know, it's hard to know exactly what's going on there.But, you know, the Financial Times, British paper reported that Trump locked an Israeli strike already planned for October the 10th.
41:45Of course, the Israelis are saying the strike was planned as they would.And they suggest the story was leaked to influence the election.I mean, so, um, it.But even the, even the challenger, right, the guy who's, I keep forgetting his name, he's a former IDF guy.He's lost a son in Gaza.He's not exactly a piece nick dude.No.You know what I mean?
42:12Like he's not exactly like a, uh, uh, a tanky, you know, he's an IDF guy who's like, you know,a right wing guy as well.So like he's probably to have the same animus.There's no room.There's no room.room for a peace movement or, you know, opposition from the left. You know, we've seen Israelon this track since the assassination of Rabin back in, when was that, 95? And now it's kind of at its,it's apogee, maybe not its epi-jay of right-wingingness. You know, when we talk about
42:49opposition Netanyahu, the opposition Netanyahu isn't based onany desire fora two-statesolution or reconciliationor go easier in the Palestiniansit's all about internalIsraelRight and frankly like the polls
43:06the polls reflect that in terms of likewhere the general population iswith that right like you know in 2012I read that they were just over 60%they were for a two-state solutionnow it's like on thereit's like 26 or 27%they've lost more than half of that support
43:23And it's not doesn't seem likely it's going to come back anytime sooner in this generationSo right yeah it's not like they're there you know this guy's a piece nick ready to you knowSpread love and joy everywhere yeah the guy I mean a guy you're talking about EisencockThank you so he's you know I suppose the Israelis would call him center rightIf I thought but it's a it's a different spectrum right so sure you know for instance centerright in Israel, if you put that in the, say, it's not, you know, let's not mix this up withU.S. politics, but let's say you took the UK and you took center right in Israel.It would be far, far right of the kind of like the reform party probably in the UK.
44:08I know that's, I'm going to be criticized for that metaphor.But yeah, I mean, obviously, Eisenhower, he, he opposes a Palestinian state.He supports settlements.But he did pledge to crack down on settler violence.which is, which has, you know, reached, as you guys know, just almost an unbelievable level.But, yeah, he's certainly not a liberal by this.I mean, even to, like, form a coalition, Eisencott's going to have to, like, flirt with the Lekud and, you know, the Jewish power part, you know,What's his face?
44:54Yeah.The real piece of ship, Bengavir's party.Yeah.Yeah.Yeah.Yeah.But other of whom, by the way, yeah, exactly.Part of the opposition is that the ultra-Orthodox are not participating in the IDF.
45:08And so it's not that they want less war.It's that they want more people to be in the IDF to fight war.This is part of Eisencote's platform, is to bring in more of the ultra-Orthodoxor all of the ultra-Orthodox into the eligible population to serve in the IDF.And again, it's not a peace move.That's actually a increase of IDF capability to fight.But that's also alienating your far far, right, your social conservatives.That law has already been passed to remove the exemption for ultra-Orthodox from the IEF.
45:45It just hasn't been fully enforced, and there's a great deal of opposition to it from, of course, said Orthodox.I don't want to serve in the IDF, but it's a significant part of the Israeli population.I don't want to misstate the percentage, but the point is this, that it's not a token exemption.And when you have the reservists being stretched to the limit as they have been over the last, you know, the last three years,having such a sizable percentage to population who don't.have to serve especially a segment of the population that is the most bellicose in many waysand far right then you yeah there is there is tension I mean the bottom line is you knowIsrael's ready to attack it's its Air Force has been has been training for this it's
46:48it's they've you know you can see on the open source they've flown longarranged drills, east over Syria and Iraq, which looks like rehearsal the routes to Iran,so they need to rehearse that. Haven't they done that? We've done that a fair amount, right?And they've, again, open source updated target list, which now includes infrastructure that wasn'tstruck in earlier rounds, energy sector infrastructure. And, you know, according to the New York Times,the IDF and U.S. military have finished detailed operational planning covering, you know,target lists and how the campaign would look.Apparently, it's daily coordination with CENTCOM.
47:38Timing probably points to early November after, you know, after both elections.But who knows?Right after the polls closed in the U.S. on Tuesday night.Yeah.John, what do you want to mention?I thought you wanted to say something.Yeah, on the ultra-Orthodox thing, so there's 80 to 100,000 men that would suddenly overnight be eligible or required to join the IDF, which is about 20 to a 25% increase to the IDF size.This is a not insignificant amount of potential soldiers that would be required to fight.
48:17So you can see why there's such opposition within their community to letting this happen.And as you mentioned, Andy, they're supposed to be, but it's not being enforced. And the concern that they have is, of course, if Eisencoat comes in, that enforcement will begin. So they'll suddenly have to join in this fight that they support vocally, but don't want to participate in. At least their families don't want them to be participating in that. So that is a significant issue there domestically inside Israel. And it's important to know that Eisencoat is Sephardic, in other words, Middle East North Africa, Jewish origin, not Ashkenazi, which would be a significant change in theleadership of Israel at the top if Eisencoat leads because they you know the safari community hasvery different views about how things are to be done they're not doves by any means but they have adifferent vision of how offensive operations should be conducted in the Middle East yeah i meaninterestingly enough he's he he's um he's closer to to the u.s administration than net njahu when itcomes to when it comes to terms with Iran, right? You know, so if we do have a clear policy,it's, you know, wanting a nuclear deal backed by force. Netanyahu wants regime change. And if
49:35Eisenhower wins, I think the U.S. and Israeli war aims are likely to come closer together,which makes it interesting that Trump supports Netanyahu. You know, and Eisenhower, you know, andEisencott said openly he sees no current justification for another strike against Iran.But even so, I mean, Netanyahu, even if he's a lame dark, he remains the caretaker prime minister until when new government is formed.And that could take weeks.And so he would be free to launch a strike.You know, I think, you know, Eisenhower would be, again, he's a, I mean, not getting involved in Israeli politics, but.he seems to be more moderate in many ways,
50:22and likely to bring more restraint in the West Bank,and perhaps in a more pragmatic approach to Gaza,based on what he has said.I mean, unlikely to bring about normalization,but nevertheless, it makes it more likely.All right, so let's move on quick bang out of what's going on with Ukraine and Russia.We heard last week, obviously Starlink and Starship was cut.off. It still seems to be cut off, at least that's what Zelensky is saying and reports are coming up.
50:53It's an interesting blank game going on between the administration and Elon Musk and SpaceX as to who did it, who decided to do it.Really great news is Melania Trump brokered a ceasefire, which is great, I think, you know.But the big thing about it is Zelensky's been making the rounds on American media for sure, like podcasts, too.He's been going on and indicating his willingness.to freeze the conflict where it is for the ceasefire talks and the peace talks, which is roughly almost 25% of Ukraine right now, which is taken up by Russia.Putin's still, you know, Putin saying that, you know, all these territories are Russian territory anyway.Russia continues to lose a fuck ton of soldiers and equipment, and they keep throwing them into the meat grinder.It's kind of incredible in this day and age that this is going on in a modern country.
51:48the people of that country are not freaking the fuck out.It's frankly,testament to how much they've controlled that countryand made it completely politically apathetic.I want to address one thing about,like there's this big talking point,specifically by our president who, you know,like them or love them,
52:10I don't do either of those,talking about how Ukraine needs to have elections.you know and it's just an overall siding with russia and Putin which is like frankly disgustingand the fact is like when there's 25% of your countries on their occupation how can youactually try and have an election when the majority of your opposition the people that wouldrun against you in an election are saying we shouldn't have an election right now we shouldwait for there to at least be a ceasefire and maybe an end to this war before we do thatI just don't understand
52:46especially when the other side is Putinwho's been in power for 27 yearshas quote unquotefucking elections but like if you believe thatI got a fucking bridge to sell youand frankly you're too stupidto be listening to this show if you believe thatit's incredible to me where we're at right now
53:04where an American president is doing thisand is like we're all for freedom and democracyexcept when you really likea really like a dictator.You know what I mean?It's fucking embarrassing, frankly.And like even if you look at the polls in America, you know, 45% of Americans thinkthat Putin is, you know, Putin's the bad guy in this war.
53:27You know, 33% are not sure.So even if 9% are sure that Zelensky's a bad guy.So even if you chop the 33% and half, it's over, it's bordering 60 plus percentin terms of people in America who are supportive of Ukraine.And we haven't given them any kind of support in terms of military or hardware support in over two years.We have the Pearl, the Pearl Act, you know, the deal with like we sell it to NATO and NATO sells it to Ukraine.We've been holding out on the fucking Patriot Interceptors, which already made a deal for, paid for and stuff like that.And basically waiting to be sent to Ukraine.
54:06And the stuff with Starlink, like, who was, are we the bad guys?Because it feels like we're the fucking bad guys.Your thoughts, Andy?Well, you know, I'm not going to answer that question directly.I think, you know, just the facts.Speak for themselves.One thing I try and avoid doing on this podcast is ranting.So let's just look at the facts, all right?
54:33So Putin told Witkoff in St. Petersburg that he agrees.Don't worry about.I'll talk about Stalin at a moment.But, you know, he agrees in principle to resuming trilateral talk.with the next round planned in Abu Dhabi, right, for early November, November 4th.And then within hours, right, Russia launches a ballistic missile and drone barrage on Kiev,which is a daily occurrence.And then a separate strike on energy facilities across six regions, cutting power to, you know,
55:03more than almost a million people, right, at this time of year, which is already pretty damn cold in Ukraine.So, I mean, this has been Moscow's consistent pattern, right?These are the facts.I'm not just expressing opinions.Say yes to talks and then keep striking.Just like, yeah, yeah, yeah.And then just keep doing what they want to do.The timing of the Abu Dhabi round is also telling, I think, because it falls after the U.S. midterms.
55:34So Russia can wait and see what political mood Washington is in before it commits to anything.That's no gap.All right. And then, you know, another point that the gap hasn't narrowed, right?Moscow's demands are the same as they were from the start.Ukraine withdraws from all four annex regions, including territory. Russia doesn't even hold yet.All right. So effectively ceding territory to Russia.Ukraine gives up NATO membership and cuts the size of its army.Well, that's not even good for NATO, all right?
56:08we've got the most powerful, most experienced military in Europe right now.And for purely selfish reasons, it behooves NATO to get on some kind of path to bring Ukraine into the fold.All right.And Ukraine has to lift restrictions on the Russian language and Moscow-affiliated church.You know, I mean, these may seem, I mean, they, you know,Ukraine, there aren't restrictions, there aren't laws against speaking Russian.It's just Ukrainian.It's the primary language of the country, right?
56:48So, and, you know, Kiev wants to ceasefire on the current frontline first, followed by talks, right?So freeze everything as now, and let's talk and negotiate, okay, which seems reasonable.Moscow rejects any pause into a full agreement on its terms its reach, which is ironic,because they're taking the bulk of casualties.But Russia's got every reason to talk slowly.The economic pressure on Moscow has eased, thanks to the United States.The U.S. Diesel Deal gives Russia revenues, gives it a political win,and Trump has rejected new sanctions.
57:28So, meanwhile, Washington's pressing, you know,pressing Kiev to stop striking Russian refineries, right?You know, and it's fucking crazy, Andy.You can say it.It's fucking crazy.You can't make this stuff up, right?Ukraine's been asked to give up its, it's, it's best lever, right?Putin himself has said Ukraine's refinery strikes are costing Russia about 1% of GDP.
57:57That's the most effective pressure, Diev has to apply in this war as its own cities get hit.its power infrastructure gets hit right before the long winter.You know, it's using cheap long-range drones to force Russia to spend heavily on air defense,ration fuel at home, bring the war home to the Russian population and lose export revenue.And we are pressing Kiev to stop doing that because it's unfair.It's like, what the hell?And reportedly, along with that, is they're free.to the Ukrainians to cut early warning intelligence, right?
58:37Which is, you know, helping save their civilian population.I mean, yeah, the motive is global oil prices, which we drove up.I mean, let's be honest, we drove them up.They were at $60 a barrel in February of 2026.And then, you know, meanwhile, all this shit's going on.And then it turns out SpaceX restricted Starlink and the military Star Shield service without warning.So Trump says the White House was not involved.But the disruption goes well beyond these long-range strikes have been talking about.
59:17So because Ukraine's air defense system, specifically, it's intercepted drones that are used against the shark.the Iranian-made drones.It depends on Star Shield.So those, so, you know, these intercepted drones, they fly over Ukrainian territory en route to knocking down shaheads,and they depend on reliable links to find and kill their targets.So cutting that service degraded Ukraine's air defense while Russia was bombing Kiev,knocking out power for almost a million people, killing civilians, and we prevented that happening,or at least SpaceX did. It's just, you know, it's, you can't make this stuff up, right? And then Trump announces,
01:00:13it's time for Ukraine to get a new president. So you add the diesel deal, the refusal to imposenew sanctions, the pressure over the refinery strikes and the Starlink disruption. Moscow can seal this.and knows that Washington's pressing Zelensky far harder than it's pressing Putin.And that gives Russia every reason to hold out, right?You know, how long can Russia sustain its losses?Well, I mean, it's a good question, but this isn't a war that, I mean, I think you'd have to,I'd listen to a really good podcast about this the other day, interviewing a Russian expert.She is Russian, actually, and she's saying, look, you can't.
01:00:57can't equate pain from the war with resistance to the government.There is no correlation there in Russia.So things could get far, far worse without there being any organized opposition to Putin.I mean, the government has a firm grip on the population.Even criticizing the war will get you years in jail.Meanwhile, the Ukraine's general staff reported is like 46,000 Russia.killed and wounded in September.That's up.
01:01:32That's,no,I think that was just killed,you know,but anyway,it's,how is that even closest to stay?Yeah,
01:01:40it's,I mean,46,no,I'm sorry,no,it's killed and wounded.That's right,
01:01:45because it's,even if it's casualties,let's say the guys are,the guys who are hurt or out for a month or two.Like,how is that even sustainable?It's 100%.I mean,
01:01:54it is casualties per month.Okay, so that's what?1,200 a day, 1,300 a day.I mean, it's staggering.And the numbers are going up.So that's up nearly 46% since the beginning of this year.1,500 a day, sorry, and cumulative figure is now close to 1.6 million killed and wounded since the beginning of the war.Now, those are Ukrainian numbers, but the UK MOD.
01:02:27D numbers are saying 1,200 a day, and they didn't.And that, but that was up until September.So anyway, they're all in the same, I mean, 12 to 1,500 a day.That's a huge amount.Recruitments falling behind.So they, you know, they're recruiting about, I think it's 30,000 a month against losses of 40,000 or more per month.So, you know, you can see there's, it's a problem when it comes to, they're going to have a problem when it comes to manpower.The problem is Ukraine's already having a problem when it's coming to manpower.
01:03:09And, you know, the Russian economy, until the diesel deal at least, and, you know, I don't want to exaggerate the effect of that.But the Russian economy is under pressure.So, you know, oil and gas revenue down almost 20% because the refinery strikes and Russia's raising taxes.So the pain on the population is certainly increasing.But there's no cliff.I mean, Russia can sustain this rate for at least another year.It still has reserves.It can raise bonuses further.
01:03:48And as a last resort, it can mobilize again.If them, you know, what is the political cost?I mean, Putin probably doesn't care, right?He's going to be in power anyway.And the higher oil prices from the Gulf crisis actually help Moscow,although not, you know, not enough to close the gap,but they certainly do help the Russian economy.So the real answer, there's no internal pressure that's going to stop the war.
01:04:20The real answer depends on outside pressure.Russia's ability to keep going, rest on its access to markets, right?And the refinery strikes by the Ukrainians and the sanctions that the United States was imposingwere the two things that were squeezing Russia.Now we've eased one and we're pressing Kiev to give up on the other.John, hit me, bro.Hit me some shit.Come on.
01:04:47Well, Andy pretty much covered it.The only thing I'll mention is the Starlink Star-Starship.Shield issue. So Star Shield, of course, is a U.S. government-controlled, but SpaceX-owned low-earthorbit satellite constellation. And Starlink is used on the commercial side for very similaractivity, but the key difference is that the U.S. government does not dictate what happens withStarlink instead it's SpaceX unilaterally can just decide to throttle it, turn it off, turn it on,speed up, all kinds of things. And Elon Musk claimed that the reason Starlink was throttled waswas because Ukraine violated Starlink's terms of service, which is kind of a crazy thing
01:05:25just in general because you have a military using this capability and is able to be stoppedby a private company. Well, it's actually a publicly owned company now because of the IPO.But a non-government entity is dictating what a military can and cannot do on a national levelthat can actually win or lose a war, which is a crazy new development that I don't think hasexisted in the past that I think is an important policy thing for people to think about,not just with Ukraine.I mean, obviously, the Ukraine thing is happening right now.But in the future, how are we going as a country and in the world going to decide how do
01:06:00we use private entities in war for high technology uses like this?You know, in the past, let's say when Germany was launching V2 missiles at the UK and WinstonChurchill was making decisions about what to do in the UK, you know, do we inform the public,Do we talk about the enigma decryption and things like that?These are all government decisions made secretly.And instead we have, to some degree, a similar scale of existential danger in Ukraine.And instead of a government deciding what to do, you have a private individual, a person telling his own company what to do.Again, this is a publicly owned company.
01:06:37So there are shareholders here who this is another wildcard because shareholders could actually cause shareholder litigation against SpaceX to make them stop providingStarlinked services to Ukraine.There's another thing to think about.They could.They could launch litigation.Does he have like 80 plus percent in terms of like voting shares and stuff like that?Without getting too technical, there are ways in the courts of equity to get an injunctionagainst what Musk is doing for temporarily to stop him from exercising those powers while the
01:07:05question is litigated.So there could be a period of time, a short period of time where his ability to decide is stopped.And there are other things legally.Like there are legal tools available to interfere with the war in Ukraine in theUnited States by private individuals.So again, this is a crazy new development, I think, in war, where you have these privateentities being able to just like a light switch flip on or off a military's ability to do something.We need to fucking pee-wack those CEOs and tell this is what's happening and dictate to them
01:07:34the fucking terms.I mean, Elon Moss, too, has also squeezed the DoD before with Starlink and Star Shield.He's done it before, which, you know, it wasn't really reported a ton on.And, you know, it's a big deal.You see it happening kind of, I mean, you're probably not squeezing the Trump administration.They probably don't give a fuck one way or the other in terms.Like, Trump clearly doesn't like Zelenskyy and prefers Putin.But like you said, it's a bigger problem, right?
01:07:59Like, one CEO should not have like this kind of power to be able to switch something off and on like that.Right.And being able to say that it's the terms of service violation, like where's the process?Where's the due process?Absolute nonsense, bro.Like, that's an absolute fucking nonsense answer and response.I mean, you could go on GROC right now and get fucking child porn.All right.
01:08:22Let's stop fucking around trying to act like Ukraine violated terms and service.That's such an absolute fucking cop out from these people that, like, can't even, like, they don't even have the balls to, like, at least, at least be honest with people and say, you know what?We're doing this for a specific reason.Well, why wasn't Iran stopped from making the Lego videos on X?if that was, you know, a violation of terms of service to do terrorist activity, right?I mean, isn't that true to?Like, where was the stoppage there?They were actually amplified by the algorithms that X has on its platform.
01:08:54So more people saw it than should have probably seen it.You got me crazy now, John, got me crazy.At the end of the show.At the end of the show.Oh, my God.Also, another fun fact, Rush obviously giving targeting data to Iran and stuff,killing American servicemen.But let's throw them a fucking lifeline.
01:09:15Yeah, it makes total fucking sense.Well, they did it in Afghanistan, too.The GRU is giving the Taliban information about U.S. positions.Well, there are adversary.We did the same to them in Afghanistan.I mean, it's just, I'm not just fine.Of course, I'm not just saying what Russia did.I'm just saying, yeah, right?
01:09:34There are, there are adversaries.So why are we giving them a deal with diesel?Why are we giving them lifelines?We kill each other's personnel or we buy proxy wherever possible because we areadversaries.That's the way it is.And that's why the war in Ukraine is good for NATO and it's good for us.And every single, you know, I know it sounds a horrific thing to say,
01:09:54but sadly, those Russian casualty figures are good for us.That's the plain truth.Let's stick by that course.And let's be honest, whose fault?They're providing targeting data to the Iranians.And who's fault is the enemy?The Russian casualties.With the Iranians.
01:10:16All right.I'm not right.You froze.You froze.You froze me.Oh, I'd never freeze you, babe.It was the rant alert.Yeah, yeah, that's what it was.
01:10:25It slowed us down.Actually, it was pretty good.It was Starlink.Not, not ranting.I'm just, why would you not think that Russia is an adversary?Why would you not think that?Anyway, I mean, why would you argue otherwise?Of course, we work, you know, we work behind the scenes to cause pain to each other.
01:10:46Even in World War II, the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was betweenthe Nazis and the Soviet Union.The only reason the Soviets joined us is because the Germans violated the pact.Yeah.Right.That wasn't for Barbarossa.We, you know, Britain would be, I won't go down that counterfeiture.I get attacked for a bit.
01:11:03That's for another episode.We'll get into Operation Barbarossa.Guys, anything else?We've said it all.I don't feel good about this conversation either, though, but we said it all.Milburn?Nothing?Nothing.
01:11:17No.I want people to go.and check out Andy's substack.It's very good. It's great. He posts regularly.So check that out. The link is in the description.He did, yeah.He's got his book, of course,When the Tempest Gad is great autobiography.
01:11:33The new book is coming out soon about Israeland the Gaza War.Jonathan Hackett, New Dad,you've got a ranch, shadow weapons, and theory of a regular war.Please go check those books out. The links are in the description.If you want to find these guys,all those links are in the description.If you want to help support the show, go to patreon.com slash the Teamhouse for episodes that are ad-free and early for both Teamhouse and IZon to for the price of one.
01:11:59And if you really want to help the show, go buy a Vairwatch.That link is in the description as well.Guys, do we all get one of these?It's in the mail, Andy.I'll get you a Vair watch, okay?But you can use it, if you really want one, you can get used the promo code, the Teamhouse, and you'll get a free watch roll with your purchase.Oh, nice.Oh, and you're a veteran.
01:12:20so you can get 20% off additional.Wow.Okay, great.I'll tell him you're a colonel too.Maybe we can get a free watch.Full bird,the kernel too.Send me your CV.
01:12:30I'll shoot it over to them.I'm sure they'll give you a free watch.You get right on that.Thanks, guys.All right.Bye, everyone.Hello, everyone.If you're hearing this,
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