Zach’s Random Questions One Week Into the NBA Season, With Kirk Goldsberry
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00:43All right, coming up on a loaded Monday edition of the Zach Lowe show, we have been binging NBA games for four or five days now.First impressions, overreactions.I've got Kirk Goldsbury of the ringer to come on.We're going to bounce around.Zach's random questions after a few days of NBA binge watching early in this season.I got about 10 random questions.How good is Wembe already?How close is he to being the best player of the league?
01:08Is rookie the year a little more open than we thought?Maybe, maybe not.What team should be worried?Are the Bulls good?Who's sadder to watch so far?The Pacers are the Celtics among the gap year teams?We got a lot of big picture questions like that.The leap, we got a leap category.
01:24Second tier kind of all-star types looking like to.they're making a leap up to towards first tier,which of those leaps is the most significant around the league?Kurt Goldsbury,we're going to bounce around all of that.Everything that's going on early in the NBA season,it's been a fun start to the season.We've got a bunch of games tonight, too, to talk about.
01:41And then maybe a little bit more,as we've had 72 hours or so to reflect on the Terry Rozier,Chauncey Billups,two separate indictments, separate and mostly unrelated.One about betting on NBA games,mostly linked to Terry.Roger allegedly and one involving allegedly rigged poker games that Chauncey Billupsallegedly participated in in some way with you know we'll see about that a little bit more
02:09about that's a busy time in the NBA we'd really just like to talk about basketball though boy oh boyokay all that coming up on the Zach Lowe show you're listening to the Zach Lojoe presented byfan duel the Smbia season put the power of the sports book in your hands withFandals your way.Your way let you create bets you can't find anywhere else.You can set your own lines or customized player props and you'll get new odds instantly.Plus, with your way, you can even make head-to-head bets by position or player.Just download the Fandalsalsbook app to play your way.
02:42Must be 21 over in President Select States and 18-year-over in D.C.Kentucky and Wyoming gambling problem.Call 1-800-Gampler or visit RG-Help.com.Call 1-88-789-777 or visit ccpg.slash chat in Connecticut.Welcome to the Zach Lowe show.The NBA season is, I don't know,four or five days old.
03:10I've been binging, binge watching,between reading indictments.I've been binge watching NBA games.I've seen every team at least once all the way through.A lot of teams twice, a few teams three times,because you've got to watch every Victor Wembeyanama game.It's getting a little ridiculous.I got a lot of Zach's random questions, big questions,
03:28overreactions, hyper overreactions.I'm stoked to talk to Kurt Goldsbury this morning.How you doing, sir?I'm great. Same vibes. A little World Series, a little football, but a lot of NBA basketball in the last few days. It's been great to have the league back, some breakout performances, some question marks. I can't wait to talk to you today, Zach. Shout out, my guy, my guy, Francisco Indoor had elbow surgery get well. I hope it's going great. Francisco Indore. My daughter who had elbow surgery two years ago, very, very feels very close, even closer than she was before to Francisco.Disco Indoor. Shout out to Donovan Mitchell, who was in New York for several days last weekfor the Cavs to play the Knicks and the Nets.Soft commitment to coming on Mets Corner, so we'll see what happens.Donovan Mitchell, lifelong Mets fan.
04:16Okay, Zach's big questions after, when did the season start Tuesday?So six days, or a week into the season.I don't know.I lost track of time already.Are you ready?We're just going to hitch it.Zach's random questions.I am ready.
04:29I told you, give me any order you want.And my duty to you, Zach.is to be prepared on all these topics.Preparedness like a Boy Scout.Were you a Boy Scout or a Cub Scout?No, I was not.I don't know if you could tell, but no.I was a Cub Scout for two years.
04:44Didn't take.Didn't like the uniforms.Didn't like the little like bandanas you had to wear.My parents would fall asleep in the den,the den meetings, are there dens?I'm not an outdoorsman.I don't aspire.I don't aspire.
04:59I don't have any aspiration to be an outdoorsman.Ooh.Good pun. Good topical pun there. But you did get your discipline in the swimming pool. I think that's an important part of your saga, right? There were a lot of early mornings for you and a lot of discipline you learned in the swimming pool.I did. And I'm back. And let me tell you, when I go swimming at the indoor pool in Stanford, Connecticut at the gym that I belong to at 11 in the morning and it's me and a bunch of old guys, I'm like fucking Michael Phelps in there. I feel so fast. It's incredible. By the way, speaking of aspiration, I was watching the clear.Lippers game last night and listening to the announcers.And like, aspire is a word that you would maybe say just randomly.And I wonder if they've like trained their brains to just say, you know, James Hardenaspiring to.
05:46No, I mean, hoping to make his 15th All-Star team.Okay, Zach's question number one.I told you, is it going to be crazy questions.How close is Victor Wenbanyama to being the best player in the NBA already, KurtGoldsbury?First of all, I'm very excited, and for your audience, I'm very biased on this question, but a lot closer, a lot closer, Zach Lowe than I, or I think anybody anticipated.Shout out to anybody who was like, he's going to win the MVP this year two weeks ago.I wasn't one of those people, but holy moly, the opening night, I was in Los Angeles for Ringer Core Week, and we watched it in the theater together that performance against Anthony Davis and the Mavericks.
06:31signaled that this dude is ready.He is much closer to being the best player in the world than I anticipated at the beginningof year three.I have some stats to back it up.But for Zach, what is your answer to this question?Well, so here's my answer.I was one of the people saying at the very least he's going to be in the inside of the MVPconversation.
06:55Ringer 100.Do you do Ringer 100?Yes.So I, when he finished.sixth in a ringer 100.And when I went on Bill's pot a couple weeks ago, one of the questions we were going to bataround, I don't think we got to it, was he framed it this way.If you think Wembe is going to be in the top five NBA players by the end of the season,
07:15who do you bump out of the presumptive top five?Now, his presumptive number five player was Anthony Edwards.And I was like, yo, I submitted my ringer top 100, and I already have Victor Wembeeniammafifth.And it behind the sort of holy quartet of Yokic, Janus, Luca, S.GA and some whatever order you want to put hard to crack that top four after a hundred games butlook I mean do the stats because the stats are like it's been three games and they play theraptors tonight so just you know grains of salt but do you want to do some stats what stats you got
07:46i got a couple stats I think um which one do I want to start with you know he's the first playerin NBA history to record 100 points and 15 plus blocks through a team's first three gamesum the spurs are first in net rating um and um and um andI think there's two that really jump out to me.If he was a team, he would rank seventh in the league in dunks right now.And if he was a team, I think he would rank sixth in blocks.So he has 18 blocks.I think only six or seven teams have more than that.
08:20And he's dunking the ball.And the thing that everybody has said, from you to me to anybody who covers the NBA,is this dude has to get his shot diet right.Okay, this was the most cliche wimby take in the universe coming into this season.And boy, oh boy, his average shot distance has gone from 18 feet to 11 feet.He's living in the paint.He's dunking on Anthony Davis.He has stopped taking the fade away.
08:47All of that to say he could get to 30 points a game in an efficient way with all these dunks and layups, a few three sprinkled in.But, man, it's the change on offense, Zach.it's the change and improvement on offense that is faster than I expect it's happening in real timeat the beginning of year three for him.I'm just going to read you some more basic stats than that Kurtzkoosier because as middleschoolers refer to me, local middle schoolers have called me basic many times.Shout out Mia.Thanks a lot, Mia.
09:16You make me feel bad about myself.Dang.Basic dad.33 points, 13 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.7 steals six blocks per game.Okay.57% from the floor, 36.percent on three, 61% on twos, you made the already the point about shot diet.Handles much tighter.
09:35Blake Griffin and I talked about that last week, the pitter pat, the pitter pat.Player efficiency rating, you might know if you're an NBA historian that anything over 3030 is a very rare achievement.It's only happened in like 2730, something like that, 2530 NBA seasons individually.43 and a half for Victor Wembeyanama after three games.Now, I mentioned grains of salt.The three wins have come at Dallas, at New Orleans, home to Brooklyn.Three teams that I think are likely lottery bound.
10:03We'll talk about the Mavs later.Fair.That said, they're still missing Deeran Fox, Kelly Lenick, Jeremy Sohan.Guys who at least are the Fox is going to start.The other two are going to be in the rotation in some way.Seven and O on the table for the Spurs, by the way.Their next four are versus Toronto versus Miami at Phoenix, at the Lakers without Luca and LeBron.And then they play Houston.
10:25Could be off to a good start.A great start.And by the way, the bigger zoom out here is Blake Griffin and I ranked our top six, predictedour top six in the West after two games in the, two days in the NBA season.Yeah.And I think my list at that time was one OKC, two Denver, three warriors, four wolves, five rockets,six clippers.And I mentioned, like, I'm about a week away from just vaulting to spurs in there over somebody.
10:55and we didn't get to the Lakers who are lurking there.Memphis is always going to be lurking there.And then I think there's a barrier and then we go down from there.But any team that you,I think Oklahoma City and Denver are going to end up alone at the top.Oklahoma City alone than Denver alone.Every other team from Golden State down to the Lakers Grizzlieshas got to be absolutely crapping their pants at this
11:20because the spurs are coming for a top six seed right now.and at least to fight for it.And the argument for that, as it was before the season,is that this dude is just so goddamn goodthat you can nitpick the flaws,you know, young guards, shaky shooting, whatever.He is going to erase a lot of those flawslike he erases the entire paint on defense.
11:42And by the way, the defense,it's just so qualitatively better.It's not just the shot blocks that come from nowhere.It's not just the double jump blocks,triple jump blocks.It's he's got a sense now of I own all of this.So when ball handlers even approach to paint, you start to see him understand I can cover two on the pick and roll real easily without overcommitting in either direction.And I can scare the bejesus out of you, ball handler by just stunting at you, stunting at you a little bit.
12:15You're going to pick up your dribble, you're going to throw a lob pass and I'm going to be ready to intercept.he is like a Jedi recognizing his powers on defense in a way that is just so all-encompassing.The whole thing is terrifying.Now, is he close to being the best player in your league?Yeah, but he's played 100 in whatever games.Like, Yokic, SGA, like you've got to play a couple of seasons before you really vault past those guys.But he's going to make first team all-N-B-A if he keeps playing like this.And he's going to make the Ringer 100 a much more complicated exercise than it was.
12:49two months ago.And for those who value interior defense,like he is leaps and boundsahead of the next most impactful thing.And a player in this category,the Spurs are allowing 29 pointsin the paint per 100 when he's on the floor,which is insane, Zach.
13:05And that goes up to 51 as soon as he goes out.And as great as the stats are,I wanted to ask you about this,because the eye test is somehow even more impressive.And I watched the Pelicans game.I hadn't been that excited for a Spurs broadcastbecause I was excited for the Mavs game,but the Mavs game sort of,
13:22it intensified my Spurs' interest by magnitude.So Game 2 is in New Orleans, right?And Zion, you could tell right away,wants to test this guy.Zion, who also looks pretty fit,which is exciting for us,but you could tell that Zion Williamsonwas about to go get it.
13:40And the first play of the game he did.And the highlight went viral on Twitter.If you were just on Twitter that night,you were seeing, oh my God, Zion just postedor was okay, it was nice.Wembe was slow on a rotation.And Zion got him.And Zion's one of the best paint scorers in the world.
13:56Then Victor blocks him either three or four times in the next 13 minutes,depending on if you are on Spurs Reddit and going through the Zabrooter film.He had four blocks in the next 13 minutes or three, according to the official scorers.But there were this category, Zach Lowe, that our friends at ESPN are calling Dad blocks,which is the backyard hoop.Yeah.Yeah. Like Zion Williamson learned the hard way. Zion, of all people, learns the hard way. You can't go at this guy. And it was to me just this jaw-dropping eye test moment where, holy crap, this is a different level of rim protector than anybody else in the NBA. And kudos to Victor, because people around the team are saying he's so much stronger than he was last year. His lower body especially is strong. It gives him this confidence to,to be that guy in the face of somebody like Zion.
14:49But the eye test, Zach, the eye test is crazy, too.So that game, you want to have a fun little moment.About 310 left to go in the fourth quarter.Close game.Right.Zion and Derek Queen run a two-man game, pick and roll.Zion's the ball handler, Queens the screener.The defenders involved are Victor Wenbighama and Luke Cornett.
15:13Giant pairing.It's working pretty well so far.Yep.both of them kind of go with Zion.They don't quite trap him, but they sort of string him out to the side.Derek Queen is wide-ass open under the rim.I mean, you will not find a player this wide open under the rim.And for like three straight seconds, he's wide open.
15:33Nobody is near him.He's calling for the ball with his hands up.Zion sees him, and Zion is like, I'm sorry, dude.Like, there's just too many freaking arms here.Like, this is like an elementary school pass, like an,elementary school defense is completely forgotten about you.And I can't make it because there's just too much arms here.And the possession died out after that.
15:56And just incredible stuff.And by the way, shout out, I would like while we're here.Yeah.I watched the Bucks game against the Cavs yesterday and against the Raptors on Friday.I mean, Janus wants to table this entire discussion.Right.36 a game, 16 rebounds.He leads the league in rebounding rate.
16:20He's averaging almost five offensive rebounds a game.He's never averaged three in a season.Seven assists shooting 68% from the floor and doing everything for the bucks.Now, KPJ has missed the last couple games.Kuzma was out last night against Cleveland, so whatever.I mean, you take that for, maybe it means something, maybe it means nothing.And I honestly, I think his passing has leveled up again.threw a behind the back no look pass to the corner as the screener in a pick and roll last night
16:51against Cleveland hit I can't remember who it was Tori and Prince maybe in the shooting pocketand it was the kind of pass you can only throw if you've mapped the floor ahead of time beforeyou've even gotten the ball and he's throwing more of those anticipatory I'm one step ahead ofthe game kind of passes and yet my takeaway from the bucks two in one start and how incredibleJanice has been, I'm just worried that there's too much on his plate.And can he, and I know some people within the cabs were asking this among themselves,like after last night's game, can he possibly keep up?He's playing, his defense is really good, super engaged, super active, the rebounding I mentioned.
17:31Can he actually do this for, forget 82, 65 or 70, or is some fatigue, an injury or somethinggoing to come?Because it's, he's doing everything for the team.Yeah, you mentioned those top four guys.It's tough for crack for Wembe, right?I don't think any of them have done anything to change our minds the early part of the season,with the exception of Luca maybe getting hurt here.But Janus, more than any of those guys, I think, is leveled up and is playing at an MVP level.
18:02And this is what he has to do to get the bucks to where they want to go as a team.He has to be prime shack, essentially, to get them there.And he's playing like it on the glass, in the paint, as at least.leader.You know, and he looks like the best player in the world at times.And it's one of those moments where you remember that he scored 50 points in aclose-out game in the NBA finals not that long ago.And he looked like the best player in the world, not that long ago.
18:31But yeah, ultimately, I think he has to do this in part because the roster around himis diminished.And he doesn't have the kind of support that you'd want to have.You mentioned Luke Cornett, and the last thing I was going to say on the Spurs is, like, they have to be happy with how Dylan Harper has looked and how Steph Castle has looked, how Luke Cornett has looked. They look like a much deeper team. You can't say that about Janus's team. You can't say that about the Milwaukee Bucks. They haven't surrounded him with all these complimentary pieces.No, and look, the bottom line of victory is we just got, we don't have to see this over a full season because whatever has happened through three games, it is.If we do see it throughout the full season,he will be the best player in the NBA.We have to see something like this over a full season
19:20before you vault him even tied with a Yokicor an SGA or Yannis who has done this over and over and overin a historic rate.But that's the conference.That's where he's going to be.He's a top five player at minimum right now for the San Antonio Spurs.All right.Question number two.
19:36You ready?Yeah.Which of these, I call them sort of second tier stars.making a potential leap is the most significant to Kirk Goldsbury.And I'm going to give you a list of nominees,but I also gave you the freedom to pick your own person if you don't like my list.Okay, you're ready for my list?I like it.
19:58Austin Reeves, 34 a game after scoring 51 and coming an assist shy of a triple doubleagainst the Kings last night for the Lakers without LeBron and Lucaand shooting the bejesas out of it in a free agency year.Aaron Gordon put up a 50 burger in his first game of the season,11 of 17 on threes through two games,sustaining what he did last year when all of a sudden he was like,I guess Aaron Gordon's just a knockdown three-point shooter in all circumstances.Jamal Murray, this is not a leap.
20:31This is a, hey, peak Jamal Murray has decided to join the partywhen the party starts instead of waiting three months to do it.24 a game, seven and a half assists, 60% on twos.Looks snappy.Just looks a little snappy.Chet Holmgren,25 and 10, 7.5 free throws a game,56% from the field, 42% on threes.
20:53Alper and Shen Goun has only played two games,one great one, one, not so good one,28, 9, and 7, 41% from the field,46% on twos.Don't love that.Tyrese also has only played two games.They play again tonight, I'm assuming.34 a game, 7 and a half assists,
21:11has made 9 million three-pointers,leads the league in threes per game, only shooting 35% on twos.And my guy, my guy, never gave up, never mocked him, mocked him a little bit, maybe.Lamello ball 28, 10, and 8 on 48% shooting 42% from 3 for the number one offense in the NBA,three three games against all so-so teams, Philadelphia, well, not even Soso, Washington, Brooklyn.But I'm taking what I can get.Do you want to pick one of those or do you have your own Goldsbury coming through?Like my favorite moment in game shows was on Family Feud
21:51when the family that was trying to steal,all the family members would send up their suggestions to the Patriarch or Matriarchor the family.And then that guy would go rogue and be right.That was always,are you going to go rogue like the Patriarch,elite Patriarch of an elite Family feud family?No.
22:08I feel like you've named my player.And it was again an opening night overreact.temptation, which was TyreseMaxie and the Philadelphia 76ers.And I make this choice in part because of the ecologicalcontext of the Eastern Conferenceand how somebody has to be third or fourthin that conference.
22:27Oh boy, here we go.Kirk's ready.But that said Tyrese Maxie, dude.Tyrese Maxie, 34 points per game.You know, he averaged 26.All the advanced stuff is great with him.And then he plays with the exact type ofenergy, the Philadelphia 76ers need to adopt in this sort of, they have a chance with Vijay
22:49Edgecombe, who I'm sure we'll talk about here at a minute, but they have a chance to have apersonality transplant at the top of that roster. If they can somehow get Tyrese Maxie to be theface of that organization with that big smile of his and that energy that I think is really contagious,if he can take over Nick Nurse's locker room as a leader and Vijay's going to bring what it lookslike Vijay might bring. I think there's some significance to the Tyrese Maxi leap in the context of aEastern Conference that could change how we think about that whole side of the league. I'm not sayingthey're at the Knicks or the Cavs level, but knocking on that door, somebody's got to get up there.And I think Tyrese is most interesting to me. My second choice was Austin Reeves, who had the game of
23:34his life last night and scored 50 points and got to the free throw line at such a high rate. EvenAnd Damar de Rosen was frustrated by the end of the press conference.He had thrown up his hands when he'd seen that Austin Reeves had 22 free throws, 24 free throws.It started with the two, whatever it was.And it started with a two.But yeah, it was of a lot.But, you know, that was my second one because I think he's going to put up some incredible numbers in the absence of Luca and LeBron.But ultimately, Zach, I want to pick Tyrese Maxi.
24:09But I'm curious if that's where you landed.Maxi is just becoming a really sophisticated offensive player across the board.I mean, he's only shooting 35% on twos.That'll flip as well to 61% that he's shooting on threes.But he's just, you just see it when a guy has control of the offense and the poiseand the ease of just knowing, yes, this is my show.And I know what to do and I know what plays to call.And I know time and score and all that.
24:35And yeah, Joelle is still Joel and they're going to feed him at the post and at the nail and all that.but Tyrese Maxie has it, whatever it is.The Reeves one is significant only because I think what it portends for his futureand the Lakers future.He's not going to average 34 a game, obviously.But if we come through the end of this season, it's like, all right, this guy's a legit25 and 7 kind of player who shoots the ball well from three.And his three's been up and down a little bit, but solid enough.
25:05like Luca plus Reeves, that's a good building block for the Lakers going forward.That's the foundation of an elite offense year after year after year.And other than that, maybe we just clear the decks in the summer of 2027 when everyone's a free agent, all the big names are summer of 2026.And just also what it means for LeBron.Like, I think they can confidently go forward with those two as the foundation of the offense and rework the franchise around them if they want.And I think that would increase the chances that LeBron, assuming he's not retiring after this season, would take a one year somewhere like Cleveland or Dallas or something like that.I would say Cleveland would be if you had to make me bet, like you've got to make me bet right now.It would be Cleveland.
25:53But it's just, you know, I went, however, with Chet just because the reason I pick the thunder to repeat as champions, which no team has done since the Durant's stack.the deck warriors was they're just so freaking young that all their guys are going to be on theupswing and the main guy to point to like you and we you and i did our most improved playerpodcast and i made us divide the candidates into tiers and tier three was star level player whosometimes gets into this conversation and my pick was chet because you could just see there's somuch more that he's got under the hood offensively and he's starting to show it and i think alreadyNow part of it is that J-Dub's been hurt.Caruso already got put in the concussion protocol.
26:36They've Kason Wallace sat a game.So their guys are doing more.But you can see the thunder.Hey, Lou Dort, you want to like drive and do spin moves a little bit more?Like, let's see what you can do.Chet stretch your wings.And I think so he was, he was ultimately my pick.But the Aaron Gordon one is massive.
26:55And Lamello, I mean, I'm still in.I'm sorry.I'm still in.I was never out and I'm still in.you out? I'm out. But let me give you, let me give you some shine on the Chet Holmert case,because I do think that might be the right smart guy answer here, because Chet does the non-glamorousdefensive stuff at a very high level for that team. He's very important. And then there's likethis creeping, I can be a 50, 40, 90 player next to SGA and be a very impactful defensive
27:24player. I don't think he's ever going to have the sexiest game. But that's a huge piece of a championshiproster and it's only getting better.And that's, again, like Aaron Gordon's a nice pick too, but I just think where he is in his ownaging curve suggests we're not going to get that kind of leap sustained throughout thispart of his career, whereas Chet is still getting better.And I'll portend.This is what my friend calls NBA puberty, this phase of a young player's career.And some of the markers, you've got to see go up, shooting efficient.
28:01defensive efficiency numbers, and Chet just keeps climbing the ladder.This is such a key stage for him.Again, he's a two-way star who could become really one of the best players on a championship team.He already is, but for multiple years.So I think that's probably the smartest case for the ceiling of Chet Holmgren on both ends of the court is high.Now, Lamello, I'll take the, I'm outside here, I'll take it.I don't, that doesn't make me feel good.I don't want to debate.
28:34I don't want to hashtag debate this, you know.He's always been one of the most talented guards in the league period, right?I think we would agree on this.He's physically gifted.He sees the game so well.Some of his best passes are the best passes you'll see a point guard ever make.It's the stuff between the ears that drives me crazy.I'm sorry, call me old fashioned.
28:55Shout out to Andrew Sharp.Call me old fashion.I like when guys shoot off of two feet from beyond the three.point line.But, wow.Dude, he's started on third base.Like, he's a great player.And for me, it's really frustrating because it's the easiest stuff that he has to master
29:14the shot selection and the defense.The defense actually looked good if you look at the advanced stuff early in his career.It's tailed off, but he has the body and the IQ to play great defense, which makes it allthat more frustrating that his defensive numbers continue to tail off.So until I see something, I'm not saying, I'm not putting them in this category with these other dudes in your list.His defense, I think, has been a little better this year, a little sharper navigating screens.This team is built to be a terrible defense just across the board.They've got no shot to compete defensively.
29:46Look, I'm not going to do my Lamello monologue again for the 17th time.I've kind of given up on him getting to the rim as often as I would like.It just doesn't seem like it's in his DNA.Yeah. Here's all I want.Okay, I watched them play the Sixers on Friday.Someday they played the Sixers.He dribbles up the floor on one possessionand just takes this goofy ass, 20 on the shot clock,
30:12nobody under the rim contested off the dribble 3 that misses.And you're like, dude, okay, time, score, situation, team chemistry.Like, this is the kind of shot that I know the coaches have talked to you about.It's just not a good shot.About three minutes later, he's got the ball.almost in the exact same position, right wing, and he's dancing.He's going through the leg, stutter step.And I'm like, here he's going to jack this thing up again.
30:35And you could see that he was thinking, like, I want to shoot this.And it's, you know, actually, you know, on the first session, he actually didn't take the shot.He rose up to shoot it and realized midair, this isn't going to go well and threw the ball away on a desperation pass.So now he's dancing.Now he's dancing.And I'm like, he's rising up again.He's going to do it again.And you know what he did, Kurt Goldsbury?
30:54What did he do?He picked up his dribble, threw the ball to Colin Sexton.and ran a two-man game with Colin Sexton that confused the defense.Colin Sexton pitched it back to him for an open catch-and-shoe three that went in the basket.And I was like, see, man, that's all.Those two, the contrast there, I'm still in.Yeah, that's perfectly said.Big question number three.
31:16Is rookie the year more open than we thought it was going to be overreacting a weekend?Yes.Short answer is yes.And this does not mean that Cooper Flag is no longer the favorite.it means that Cooper flag is less of a favorite.And that doesn't mean that Cooper flag's been anything but good.It means that two or three guys have crashed the party.So I asked our friends at Fanduel for some updates.
31:42And I think that's very instructive.You can guess who had the biggest move over the last week, Valdez in Philadelphia, VJ. Edcom.It's gone from plus 1,400 just a week ago to plus 210.And if he's going to score like he did in that first game, dude, he might steal the race.I mean, you know, rookie of the year, if somebody's scoring 25, 30 a game, they're going to be a strong contender to win.And then the other one, and one of the great moments in NBA podcast history over the last year, Chris Vernon, and the guy at Target.Are you familiar with this saga?I think so, but it's a Cedric Coward one.
32:23And Cedric Coward is on my list.too.Hilarious, hilarious moment, but also statistically a big mover.The target scout that got Vernon on Cedric Howard way before anybody has moved significantly.He started at plus 9,000 all the plus 4,000.So is it an open race?Yes.And also, Dylan Harper looked a lot better than even I thought as Spurs Homer was going to look.
32:47So I don't think Cooper has done anything bad.I think he's been put in a particularly tough position in Dallas.But it's because of the other guys.Isaac, VJ,Cedric, Dylan Harper,that I think it is, in fact, an open race.It's a marathon,not a sprint.
33:05It's a long season.Shouldn't get too crazywhen the Clippers loseone horrible game in Utahwhen it was like,did they think it was the preseason?Because this is a real game.It's going to be Cooper Flags Award to lose
33:19because of the opportunity he's going to getto run the offense inlieu of like reliable pointguard play and just how goddamn good he is at everything. I mean, other than reliable three-pointshooting, and that's going to be the test for him. That's how defense is going to test him. But he'simmensely skilled and can do pretty, feel pretty much any role on either end of the court.But he's, and he's averaging 17 and 6 on decent shooting. It's not like some damaging starter.I think he's been great. Kishon George, by the way, defended the hell out of him and the
33:50Wizards win there on Friday. That was a, whenever that was, that was a great game for the Wiz.Cedric Coward up to 19 a gameshooting 70%has seven steals in no turneror seven assists in no Turnerwas averaging almost two steals a gamejust I'm watchingI like the way he moves off the ball
34:08like the confidence with which he's stepping into threeslike in transition he's a freight trainlike the power dribblesI'm just watching it's interestinggreat situation for him in Memphis by the way he's also 22yeah he's also has this older guy advantageright he's fully cooked as a playerHe's 22 years old.
34:26But hasn't played much in the last 18 months until now.Yeah, good call.But that efficiency you're pointing out to,that's been his calling card.That's why the nerds flagged him early on in the draft process.It's like, oh, my gosh, this guy might be the most efficient volume scorer,especially inside the arc.So I expect him to have some nice numbers in a weird Memphis situation
34:49that could go anyway we want.But yeah, he's a nice player.I mean, again, that draft.Apparathing Apparatus in Memphis did it again.They found another good player at a position where you don't traditionally find a great player.He had to drive against Jaris Walker the other night where he just, I mean,Jerez Walker's not a small dude.They're probably about the same size and just bullied him underneath the rim to the point
35:11that Coward himself got all the way turned around and had to lay the ball in backwards,and it didn't even matter because Jerez Walker was like falling out of bounds.VJ. Edgecombe, you mentioned a lot of mid-range shots.We'll see how that goes for him.the three-guard lineup with him and Maxie and Grimes.That's plus 16 and 35 minutes.Dylan Harper, you mentioned averaging 16 a game.Boy, it looks like Harper and Castle, again, it's a, Zach, it's a marathon, it's not a sprint,
35:38but there's a chance based on the data we have that Harper and Castle are a little furtheralong than anticipated, which makes the Deerrin Fox thing I would classify as a good problemto have for San Antonio.know awkward potentially in six months but good right now good problem to have and Dylan Harperfantastic around the rim uh great instincts around the rim and uh I know the spurs are very excited abouthim they had high expectations like he said somehow he exceeded them same with step castlenobody had low expectations for year two from this guy but he looks like a defensive leader helooks like one of the toughest assignments that anybody could draw nobody wants to try to score on
36:20Steph Castle, real culture piece. You mentioned earlier, like the Luke Cornett acquisition,I think the Spurs are really interested in trying to pair Cornett and Wembe together.Some of the defensive numbers we're seeing with Cornett on the floor are so much better than theone Spurs fans are accustomed to with, say, Zach Collins in that role. So things are looking upin San Antonio. We knew they were looking up, but things are looking up faster.and maybe more significantly after three games, caveat,than we expected in San Antonio.I love Castle.
36:59I love the spirit that he plays with.He's absolutely tenacious.He makes winning plays.He's not selfishly on both ends of the floor,and he's massively explosive going to the basket.Trey Johnson, 17 a game for the Wiz on elite shooting.He can flat score, man.And he can score off movement.
37:17He can score against contests.love watching and play.Jeremiah Fears is averaging 15 a game.Zion James, I should have mentioned in my Lamello monologuehas been pretty good.Not in this conversation.Just a shout out.And Bill Simmons' favorite player,
37:32Khan Kinple, 15 game,four and a half rebounds, 55% shooting.This is a really fun rookie class across the board.Flag is still going to have,there's going to be like two months where flag averages 28 and 8and is like, oh, okay.And these other guys fade out a little bit.bit, but it's been a fun start. Okay. Are you ready for another one? Or do you have other other thoughts on
37:54the rookies? Well, it was an electric experience for me in Los Angeles. I watched the first half ofthe Sixers Celtics game with Chris Ryan, noted Sixers fan. And that was an electric experience.He was very much enjoying V.A. Edgecombe making three after three after three. And so that was fun.But I think he's crashed it more than anybody. I think I'm more excited to watch.VJ Edgecom over these next few weeks, Zach, than any of the other names, except for my spurs,who I'm biased about.Yeah, I love the way he's played both ends of the floor.He's a willing screener, and they have these little guard, guard pick and rolls that are
38:31kind of fun.And look, I don't, one quick click for you.I think your listeners want to hear you riff on the state, and I'm putting you on the spothere on the state of Joel Embed early in the season.What have you seen there?I mean, he vanished in the second half the other day on his minutes restriction.first game was obviously not good.Second game, better.
38:55I mean,it looks like it's just going to be a long,like a long, we're a long way from the Joelle M.Bthat we grew accustomed to.The post demands, like, get me the ball.I got a double team.They ticked up a bit in the second game I watched against Charlotte,but they're still kind of not there.
39:16He's taking a lot of threes.looks like a guy who's trying to rediscover his win, his game, his physicality,and I'm just going to give it time.I mean, I have no faith that he's ever going to remain healthy for an entire seasonand playoff run.But this is why the Sixers were, I don't think they ever contemplated for a secondtrading the third pick in a way that would have gotten them out of the lottery or outof the draft.
39:41I don't think they contemplated like, we got to make a win now trade around Joel and PaulGeorge.The smartest thing they ever did was like,We're just going to pick the guy we think fits maxi and fits our future timetable because that's what's relevant.We'll see.Paul George is around.The Zach Lowe show is brought to you by Fanduel.All right, basketball's back.
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41:19Okay.Next question,and you could feel free to nominate your own for this one.Most alarming rotation hole after a week in the NBA.I think we have to go with the Hawks' depth,which was one of your nominees,and I'm sure you've done some work on this.I love the Hawks.
41:44I think we both love Quinn Snyder for Coach of the Year.But man, if Jalen Johnson and Christops aren't going to be around, if we're going to see a lot of missed games from those two guys, this isn't going to be a very good basketball team.And so I think earlier in the first three games, they're one and two, right, they have some winimal games this week.And so I'm really laser focused on who's cleared to play and when.and are we going to get a full season out of Jalen and or Christops,let alone Risha Shea, who are missing games already?Because I said earlier, the third spot in the east,fourth spot, those are up for grabs,
42:27but a thinned out Hawks team, especially up front,is not going to be in contention for that kind of place in the Eastern Conference.So I had them slotted in there as a really nice teamwith one of the deepest rosters in the Eastern Conference,and through three games, they have a thin team with major injury concerns.So I have Atlanta.It was one of my nominees.It was what gave me, it didn't give me pause because it just could not take away from my
42:56Hawks' enthusiasm, but it did give me some, it gave the rational side of my brain pause.That, you know, their three best bench players are Nikiel Alexander Walker, excellent six-man.Onyaka-Kangu, my pick for six-man of the year.Canard gets us to eight.It's like, okay, I like the idea of Luke Conard.Every team that has him likes the idea of Luke Conard.And then the idea of Luke Conard gets played off the floor when the games really matter.And then after that, like this is the bent.
43:25Now, it's been exacerbated because Risa Shea, Jalen Johnson, and Porzingis all missed their last game against the Thunder.These are the guys that got bench minutes for them in that game.This is the entire bench.Jacob Toppin, Ace of Newell.Now, if there's a fun subplot from that game, he made three threes and had 12 points.TBD.Kauffali Dante,Luke Kinnard,
43:46Keaton Wallace,who I like is a hustle guy,Caleb Houston,and Veet Krati,who I like is like a 10th-11 guy.That's the whole bench.Just saying,my other nominees,
43:55you want to hear some other nominees?Yeah,you had some good ones you sent over.Well,we have point guard questionsin a number of places,including Houston and Dallas,which you will get to.
44:05Orlando's bench,which was my worry spot for them,especially if Isaacis just going to be a complete zerofor them.But I think they'll ultimately have enough between Tyos Jones and Anthony Black.If Moe Wagner comes back in any point during the season, Jace Richardson, Jed Howard,will see who wins those minutes.
44:21I think they probably have enough there.I think they might need when the games really matter to have two out of Bain, Wagner,and Bancarro on the floor at almost all the time.But the games don't matter that much yet.Portland Centers is one that's on my list.They're basically just playing one.Donovan Klingen.Nine of Donovan Klingon's 17 field goal attempts this year have been threes.
44:46He just kind of looks like I'm not sure what function he has out there other than protecting the rim.Yang Hansen plays five minutes in the first half and doesn't play in the second.By the way, one thing I like about him keeps his uniform, like no warmups.He's just in full, just uniform only on the bench.Just to remind the coach, like, I'm here, Tiago.Like, I'm ready to go in any time.And they're playing these like five wings.I like some of the players on a team, and they don't have scoot.
45:14A little worried about Shaden Sharp start.Ultimately, I am going to choose the Minnesota Timberwolves point guard situation.Mike Conley getting benched and playing 46 minutes through three games and elevating DanteD. Vincentzo, fine, it's a move that I sort of hinted at.It could be possible before the season.I was surprised it happened right away.I'm surprised how little Mike Connolly has been using.He got used more yesterday because Anthony Edwards heard his hand.
45:41string.Hopefully that's nothing.They're not even playing Dillingham.They're playing Bones Highland over Dillingham.I don't trust Bones Highland as far as I can throw him in a big game.Whatever.Tim Connolly likes them.I guess I should defer to Tim Connolly.
45:54Jalen Clark's a good defender.Terran Shannon's been up and down.But like that feels like a spot that if they're actually serious about getting back tothe conference finals and pushing beyond that, what they have there is just not goodenough.And I don't care how good Anthony Edwards is.is amazing. So that's my pick.I don't even know how they solve it. It's not like they have a lot of stuff to trade.
46:14They can trade picks that they've already swapped so they're not going to be good picks.They can trade swap rights and stuff.But I just don't, I don't know.They're also got salary concerns.So that's going to be because of their status in the league, that's going to be my pick.It's a solid pick.And you mentioned Dillingham.To me, that's a glaring issue that you went in on the number eight pick and essentially got him
46:40last year and this dude can't even get out there and give you quality minutes in year twoat a position where you need them um that's bad uh and i like how you framed it too because this is ateam that's been knocking on the door of greatness here for a few years and Mike conley we knew thiswas coming that's the other thing there was this and that's part of the reason you got Dillinghamis you knew you were going to have this issue uh and so to me it's likeOh, like they need somebody so bad at that spot.Dante DiVincenzo can sort of pretend.Anthony Edwards, Julius Randall can sort of make plays sometimes,
47:22but you don't really want to lean into that.The by committee thing is okay with them.I just don't think any of those guys are better than B to B plus passers.And again, in the context of the Western Conference being so unforgiving,like the same thing that Houston and Dallas struggle with.Like, yeah, you need somebody to bring up the floor and initiate a set.If you don't have that, you're going to get exposed in these games against Denver and OKC and the Spurs and the Rockets.All these teams, they will find your flaw.
47:56And we've already seen it happen a couple times with teams trying to bring it up against OKC.And they're just like, you need somebody to do this, dude, or we're going to expose you and turn you over.So to be the best team in the Western Conference,you need to have a great point guard.And Minnesota simply might not have any point guard.You mentioned the pressing imitation,like the full court press Pacers imitation is happening across the league.And it's been interesting to watch it.
48:22Like Boston,yesterday against Detroit,was pressing Cade Cunningham with Hugo Gonzalez,was pressing him up and down the floor.And first of all,Kate Cunningham's averaging about 9,000 turnovers a game.It needs to clean it up.second of all
48:36Hugo Gonzalez was very annoyingto Cadeand there was one possessionwhere there were a couple possessionswhere just he was likesomeone else just has to bring it upand I don't want to do itfine if you have the personnel
48:50the Blazerslast night against the clippersbrought Blake Wesley in the gameand just told him just press everywhereall the time and he started pressingHardin, donewhoever was bringing the ball up the floorBogdan Bogdanovich, Chris Paul,
49:06created a couple turnovers and nearturnovers to the point thatI think it was hard on one position.I was like, you know, Derek Jones,can you just dribble the ball up to the floor?I just can't deal with this shit anymore.And Derek Jones is like, cool, I'm Derek Jones Jr.I'm not really a point guard.
49:20And he got picked at mid-court.And I was like, this is kind of fun.I like this.Another quick question on my list was,do you like the heaves rule changewhere it's a team field goal attemptand not an individual field goal attempt?You know, I'm glad you asked me.
49:34this. I didn't expect to have this questionlobbed to me. It's such ahigh profile platform, such asthe Zach Lowe show. I hatethe Heaves rule. Let me go on the record.I hate the Heavesrule. We've been tracking makesand misses in the NBA for decades
49:49the same way. We've learned to contextualizethem spatially.Is it clutch?Is it a jump shot?Is it contested? We've learned todo this. The one thing we didn't needis somebody coming in and being like, actually, thatwasn't a shot. That was a shot. And the other thing is these three-point shooters, they've been
50:09treated with kids' gloves for decades now, too. You can't breathe on them. You can't look at themthe wrong way. You give them three free throws. And now we can't even have them to have theheave, which is a low percentage shot added to their LinkedIn profile. We have to delete those.I'm fed up with it. As a professor, I think this is great inflation for the three-point shootersof the league. I don't think they need it. I think they've been given enough here.And as an analyst, it's a pain in the ass because now I have to freaking figure, oh, there'steam number of three point attempts, but individuals don't sum to team.Why did we do this?
50:44Who was asking for this?We did it because the players were cowards, most of them, and didn't want to hurt their field goalpercentage, which is why I ranted about how much I hated the rule, because it awarded cowardice.And I liked the fact that the players who are willing to shoot heaves, percentages bedamned, were heroes for doing it.Steph Curry and Yokic and J.R. Smith and just anyone who's will just like doesn't give a shit about their percentage.Which makes me, which makes it hurt for me to say that the heave rule is working and that everyone is shooting heaves now.And I like the heaves and they're fun. And so I'm conflicted emotionally by all of this. Okay.
51:23Big question, whatever number we're on. Are you more worried through three games, Kirk Goldsbury, three measly games about the one and two Orlando Magic?Or the one and two Dallas Mavericks?Orlando.Again, you know, they are at a key stage of their growth, right?They are at a key stage of their growth.Dallas is in, who knows what Dallas is doing?But Orlando, we know what they're trying to do.Again, with my latter analogy, there's some rungs here.
51:52They're clearly trying to get up the Eastern Conference.They have a plan.They have a young group of dudes.But, dude, there are some alarming stats with,the Orlando Magic that are not just small sample theater, Zach.They track back with their fatal flaw of last year that make me very concerned.Let me tell you something about this weekend in Orlando.Not only did the magic lose it home to the Bulls, which I'm sure caught your eye.
52:23That night they scored 15 points on jump shots, 15 total points on jump shots.How bad is that?That is the single lowest total in that category.since December,2003.There have literally beenthousands of NBA gamesat that time.
52:38They scored 15 pointsat home against Chicagoon jumpers.They made six of their35 jump shots.And I think it'sespecially relevant.And I'm not cherry-picking.
52:48This is not a small sample size.This tracks with their biggestweakness last year.It tracks with why they gotDesmond Bain.Last year,they ranked both lastin efficiency and points
52:59per shot on jumpersand points per gameon jumpers,I should say.it's not fair to expect Desmond Bain,who makes about three jump shots per gamethroughout his career to come in and fix all of this.This team has a clear red flag,
53:15and it's more associated with Paulo Bencaro than Desmond Bain.They can't shoot.They can't shoot.They have conference finals expectations,and they can't shoot.So I'm very worried about that.I don't think they've fixed it.I took the over on Bill's pod on 50 and a half wins for the magic, so I'm quite concerned.
53:40My answer will nonetheless be the Mavericks, but we'll get there.Okay.Bain, shooting slump.Fine, I'm not worried about it.The idea of Bain was not just his shooting, but his screening off the ball and his movement and his second side ball handling would make their two point looks easier.would open the paint in ways that were not open to thempreviously because teams would so often switchany two-man game between Franz and Palo
54:08because they're like size.Now you add this other guard to do this, blah, blah, blah.And Suggs missed the game already,just held out, I think, for precautionary reasons.Those four together, I think are going to be good.Which is why I'm just, I think it'll be okay.They are 30th in offense after three games.That's last.
54:27They are 28th and three-point rate.like attempt frequency, that tracks with their past.They are 28th in, I'm sorry, they are 30th in three-point shooting, last, shooting 28%.Also tracks.I think all that will come up.They're also 12th in shooting percentage at the rim and 29th on mid-range jumpers.Those are the ones that have to come up.Now, they're fifth in pace.
54:57They're running more.They want to run.Great.It's not working.I'm just going to say this.If they can't crack a top 20 off it,you know this is my favorite stat in the NBA.That they have not even been in the top 20,
55:09I think, since 2012.Like they've been bottom 10 every year in a league in which by Marchsix teams aren't even going to be trying to win.They can't even get in the top 20when they're trying to win most years, a lot of years, not every year.If they can't get in the top 20,we just might have to take a break.Just take a break.
55:27move the team to Lakeland or Tampa or something because like this is not workingand Palo look slow start his mid-range attempts are actually down and his rim attemptsare way up and they missed a lot of bunnies and they'll make their bunnies but there are juststill too many like I've been high on Palo I've been actually accused by the stats nerdsof being too high on Palo and I this is why there are still too many possessions where hejust kind of walks in to an 18-footer with 15, 14, 12 on the shot clock, not having reallyaccomplished much in terms of running an action.And he's just not a good enough shooter for that to be such a big part of their offense.
56:12And I understand when he gets on a heater, it looks old school.It's awesome.Kobe-esque, bigger Kobe, bigger Jordan, whatever.He just doesn't get on heaters that often.And he needs to just be better.but I'm withholding judgment.I need to see the big four play more.They're plus 11 and 24 minutes.
56:29I like to silver off the bench.I mentioned their benches.It's like a little shaky.I'm withholding judgment.I'm not.I'm going to raise the Kirk Goldsbury red flagover Paulo Bencaro Island here.This is such a key moment for him.
56:45And I hesitate to admit this.I hesitate to admit this.It reminds me a Josh Smith sometimes.I was not emotionally prepared for that.I'm sorry to do this to you.He's made five of his 27 jump shots this year.And again, I'm not cherry-picking.I love Palo.
57:05He's an important person in the future of American basketball for crying out loud.But last season, among the 62 most active jump shooters in the NBA,he ranked 60th in efficiency.He has a jump shooting problem.And he's the most active scorer on the team.and sort of that's their issue.Some of the more advanced stuff with him is not trending in the right direction at thiskey stage of his career.
57:35And this start to this season has just sort of certified or sort of cemented in my head theidea that he might not be getting better at this key phase of his career.And so that that's why I have the red flag on Bencaro Island.First of all, I will say to you what I said to Bill.Not everything can be an island.Okay. Palo Ban Carroll. Palo Ban Carroll is a country that is well populated with lots of people. Okay.Well, there's been some sea level rising down in Florida and now it's an island.He asked me something. I don't remember what island went. I think he said like Janus Island. No, no.
58:11That's a con. Greece is Janus Island. It's Greece. It's Janus Peninsula.What the hell was I talking about? Oh, I think the process will get better.in ways that make his looks easierand the ecosystem will work itself outnot to an elite degreeto a good enough like,okay,we're 17th in offense and fourth in defense
58:37and that's sort of the roadmap for the season.If they can't get there,I'm going to be a discern,but I think the ecosystem will work itself outas they get,and just the way he's brought it in the playoffs,I may be over indexing on that,but he's brought it in the playoffs
58:51as an underdog in a way that's like,Holy smokes.This guy is a stud.Okay, my choice is still Dallas, if only because of this.They're 1 and 2, and they're 26 in offense,despite putting in 139 against the Raptors last night.And this has been through three games,why I took a slight under on them at 41.5 or 40.5.
59:14I just don't know what the identity of the team on offense is going to be.Yeah, they're huge, but I don't know what that really gets you.Is it going to get me a lot of Anthony Davis just,floating around shooting 18 footers because that's not going to work.I think they're going to need a lot of time to sort out their spacing, to sort outhow to get sort of quick hitting interior passing going along, how to get Cooper Flagaccustomed to being a lead ball handler.And they're 29th an offensive rebate.
59:42I don't even know that's possible.Their last in shooting percentage at the rim, that will improve because they should bea team that just bludgeoned you.They have to be a team that just bludgeoned you.You can see them like, because,Gafford's been out, you can see them sort of wondering how much center should we play AnthonyDavis. We've got a lot of minutes further than now because we really only have Lively and Dwight Powelland Dwight Powell's not guy we really want to play. That question gets more complicated when Gaffert
01:00:09comes back and you have two legit starting level centers. They can lean on the Kyrie absenceexcuse half the season, most of the season. I don't know when he's going to come back. BecauseDeLo is going to have one good game every four games.And other than that, he's going to infuriate their fan base.That's just what happens.It's what's happened so far this season.And other than that, it's like Flagg and Brandon Williams and Jaden Hardy and a bunch ofyoung guys trying to masquerade his point guards.
01:00:36And it just feels stale to me.And why it's more worrisome is, I don't know when Kyrie is coming back.And yeah, he changes everything.Yeah, that's just a fact.Is it going to be too late for him to change the fortunes of the team?and if Luca is like 32, 10, and 10 in Los Angeles,and this team is eight games below 500with the lack of offensive identity
01:01:00and the supersized thing doesn't look workable,it could get ugly there.Like, it's a little too early to go there,but like I test I've not liked what I've seen.Yeah, it looks like they lack a clear leader on the floor.I was shocked and pleasantly shocked with my spurs biasto see what I saw.an opening night in Dallas where for the first time I think in in in in his career I saw a player look at
01:01:28Anthony Davis and just take him on and just destroy him over and over again that was veryalarming to me you combine that with the fact that Anthony showed up a little heavier than normalbut this was always going to be an experiment and I was bullish on it and hand up I might be wrongI thought they were going to be better than this and they still might be I think they theydeserve some time to let the food cook here.They have a really deep front court and figuring out rotations and rosters.Like, let's let's let Jason Kidd figure this out.But this was always going to be sort of a weird modern NBA experiment because I think
01:02:03the front court is as deep as it gets in the league, period.But the back court is as questionable as it gets for any team that thinks they're good.Like they have DeAngelo, as you mentioned, an aging.Clay Thompson, Ryan Nemhard, like, DeAngelo.Yeah, it's, it's, but.But it was, it's not a Western Conference back court that you would be like, hey, you know,in a world of Jamal Murray and Cheyieldis Alexander and all these other teams with guards likeStefan Curry and Luca Donjic, it's not one of those teams.
01:02:32So I have been sort of surprised at their inability to dominate inside, starting with that Wembe game.But particularly, I thought those indicators you mentioned, you did a good job of pulling them out.Those are the exact things I thought they'd be good at, rebounding.dominating the paint.They just haven't been.So I'm a little concerned.I ultimately went with Orlandoand part because the bar for Dallas
01:02:58is a little bit lowerin their conference.But it is a red flag for me.You know, the bar,they're going to be goodat putting the bar wherever is convenient for thembecause when they made the Luca trade,they publicly went out and said,
01:03:14we have this two or three or four.Like our window's pretty short.And I've said many times,One of the risks you run when you shorten your window on purpose for whatever reason is you become very susceptible to one injury undoing that.And that is what has happened.And so now they can move the bar down and say, well, this is kind of a gap year for us.You know, we'll just, we'll see, you know, when Kyrie comes back, where we are.I don't think it was intended to be a gap year, even with Kyrie being out.
01:03:39I think they had high expectations for this team.And it's not like I had low expectations.If people go back and listen to Bill's over Underpod, like I was a, I think I called it the toughest choice I had.40 and a half and 41 and a half.And I think of them as like a 38 and 44 kind of team.It's more macro.There is a lot of Clay Thompson happening, first of all.But it's more macro.
01:04:01And I'm just, I'm no pun intended flagging it.This episode is brought to by eBay.You guys know that watching basketball is my thing, obviously.But you know what else is?Collecting basketball memorabilia.And that's why you got to love eBay.It's like a never-ending merch store, vintage basketball cards, old school jerseys,one-off fan-made artwork.
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01:05:01I'm obligated to do it because I, like many other people,have made a lot of fun of this franchise over the last five years.Are the Bulls may be good, Kurt Goldsbury?Two and O with wins over offensively challenged Detroit or Orlando,holding teams to 21% on threes through those two games.are the number one defense in the league and number 29 on offense?Are the Bulls maybe good?That aforementioned Orlando game is doing a lot of work here.
01:05:26They faced an Orlando team that almost literally shot the lights outbecause the basketball was hitting the lights, I think, instead of the hoop.But no, I hate to say it.I like the world when Chicago was good.You know, I think, you know, if you look at their over-under,it's still at 34 and a half.That's right where I have them.It's up.
01:05:48That's up from where it was.I think there's some wins to be had.The NBA plays 1,230 games every season.Somebody has to win each one of those.I think the Bulls will win 30 to 40 of those.I don't think the offense is anywhere near good enough to make noise long term.Is their 29th rating informing that conclusion?Yeah, and then when you watch it, you watch these guys.
01:06:16I'm a giddy guy, but beyond that, I don't know where the points and the efficiencyis going to come from.I actually like their bench.Herder and Patrick Williams and I.O. and Jalen Smith, that that's a nice bench for Chicago.But no, I don't.Do you disagree with that, Zach?No, I don't think they're good.I think they might be a little better than I thought.
01:06:37I mean, I took the over at 32.5, and I was saying, like, that's impressive by Vegas to putit too low because I'm to put it that low because I'm pretty low on that team.Kobe White hasn't played at all yet.that'll hurt their defense but help their offense when he comes back.Yeah, that's huge.That's right.You know, they're starting, other than Vooch at center,and Gidey's big, but he's not a good defender.
01:07:01I don't quite know, despite the fact that they're starting Acoro,Trey Jones is all right defensively.I don't quite know that this is a really elite defense like this,and I probably isn't.They are fun to watch.They play really hard,and they play really fast,both in the half-court and transition,
01:07:19which is how you have to play with Giddy,because he's not going to have the ball all the time,and when he's off the ball,you've got to be a little unpredictable with himto keep the –and he's shooting catch-and-chew-threes confidently and well,the off-the-dribble one, we'll see.Hurters played well off the bench.
01:07:32Setting a lot of screens in the pick-n-roll.I kind of like that.Again, unpredictable.Pat Williams,don't do this to me, okay?Don't tease me with, like, aggressive, confident play.don't do it.Because I've seen it before and I've gotten excited.
01:07:50Yeah.He looked pretty good the other day.I was good.You know, we'll see.They might be a 500 team.Okay, last one.More depressing gap year watch so far,the O'N3 Indiana Pacers or the O'N3 Boston Celtics.
01:08:07You know, I like how you sort of contextualize the MAV situation on sort of a multi-year arcto remind me of what the goals have been there.And so for me,answer is Boston because of that because this is a team that I've sat on the sidelines with youand important moments it seems like for years and this is a team that we thought might win multiplechampionships and by the way they still might but it's been pretty hard to watch them struggle sohard in these first few games in part because they've set such they've set such a high standard forthemselves since Brad and Joe sort of created this culture there. Indiana, I didn't know they were
01:08:52going to be this bad, but I had pretty low expectations for a no Miles Turner, no Tyrese Halliburtonyear for them. Boston, I thought Derek and Jalen could put something together to be a little bitbetter than this with Joe Missoula. So I guess I'll say Boston. I took the under on both, infuriatingBill, I think.And am I taking a victory lap?No, Kirk, because I'm not stupid.You don't want to get fired.No, it's three games.
01:09:21Three games.Anything can happen.But the Pacers, I just thought, lost so much of their identity.And you mentioned Halliburton and Turner.They've been down Nemhart, Matherin, McConnell.The rookie point guard, Peter got hurt right away.Obie Toppin got hurt last night.We'll see what his status is.
01:09:38They're just down too many guys now.For me, the answer is Boston.I was watching Boston, Detroit, yesterday.And they had a lineup where it was like Derek White.They had a brief stretch with both Derek White and Jalen Brown on the bench,which I don't think will happen very often.Derek White's doing way more stuff on offense than he's done since San Antonio,which was predictable.
01:09:59But it was like a lot of Anthony Simons and just these anonymous big guys.We all flagged the front line at front court at the beginning of this.It's just like, boy, Anthony Simons is doing a lot.Peyton Pritchard will start hitting.shots.It's just because so much of it was a Tatum.And by the way, if this team's not good, Tatum should not come back this year.I don't see what the point of it would be, but we'll see.
01:10:26It's a long way away from that.It was Tatum inflicted and then self-slash apron inflicted to see Horford fitting in so wellwith the Warriors, to see Drew Holiday looks like sprightly for the Blazers.Yeah.And Porzingis, obviously, has been sick again and not played, but will be good.And just like, this is what this proud championship team, and they're still proud, they're playing hard.Like, they were annoyed that they couldn't win that game against the Pistons yesterday.Jail and Brown had 41 points and they couldn't win.
01:10:57Like, this is what I'm going to watch to beat the Celtics.And they'll be competitive and they still shoot a lot of threes.They play super hard.They're very well coached by Joe Mizzou.They're not going to be a 28-win team.They'll be a decent team.But I've been watching them and like, man, this 21st in offense, 23rd in defense, 24th in net rating.And it feels like that.
01:11:18It's like, it's been a long time since it's felt like this for the Celtics.You flagged the front court and that's what it was.It's the least glamorous part of the game, but they can't rebound.They have the lowest defensive rebounding percentage by a wide margin in the league.And if that's going to be an indicator that carries through the whole season, they're not going to win a lot of games.They're going to have a lot of second chance points.their defense isn't going to be what we're accustomed to saying.But ultimately, I think the sort of loss of both the Celtics and the Pacers
01:11:48is what I'm mourning the most when I watch early League Pass games.Both of those teams sort of dropping so significantlymeans the average 7.7.30 p.m. Eastern tip on League Pass is just being taxed.It's sort of sad that Tyrese and Jason Tatum aren't out there.either one of them.So I would choose the Celtics,but I like the way you framed it.I'd just say,
01:12:15man, it's kind of a bummer, right,to watch these Eastern Conference tips without both of them.I almost, I'm like,can they just,when are they just going to just sit Derek?I mean, like, you know what,don't waste the tread on your tires this year.That's obviously fanciful and not a real thing.
01:12:31You know who tips off at 7 p.m. East Coast time?The Wizards?Well, probably them too,but to Charlotte Hornets.Yeah.Just saying.Okay, I haven't talked to you since the two separate and mostly unrelated gambling indictments came out on Friday or Thursday, I think.One about mostly focused on Terry Rozier, allegedly alerting his friends that he would take himself out of a game for the purposes of them then betting the unders on him.
01:13:07And one about illegal poker rings in which Chauncey Billups was charged with being a face card to draw victims to rigged games in which they were rigged for those victims to lose.Mostly separate, obviously.Chauncey, we've both known for quite a long time.We'll see.I assume his defense is going to be, I didn't know the games were rigged.And yeah, I'm used to being paid to do stuff or being a celebrity guest at places.I didn't know what was going on.Maybe that's true.
01:13:43Maybe it's not.We'll see.What has struck you now that we've had some time to reflect on this stuff?What strikes me, and I love coming on the Zach Lowe show because we talk about basketballfor a long time.And we watched games.We just did.Yeah.
01:13:55And what strikes me, though, Zach, is 2025 is the biggest stories in the NBA are off the courtand they're not good.It's either the second apron causing these wave and stretch provisions.It's the aspiration, Kauai Leonard's story that we talked about one of the last times I was on your show.And now it's this.Yeah, Blazers Clippers last night was like, okay, scandable.But yeah, it's unfortunate that we have these segments and these conversations.But ultimately, I think it's a crucible moment for the league office and Adam Silver.
01:14:31And it's a very, very big set of circumstances for the NBA to navigate correctly.And we're seeing reports that Adams being called to testify in front of Congress.And gambling is happening, no matter what.And getting gambling right is a huge thing for this administration to get right.so that the league we love, the integrity of the league we love can continue to be asas high as it needs to be for us to love it as much as we do.The Rozier thing has left a lot of interesting questions in its wake.Let's just be clear on this.
01:15:18The NBA cleared him.They got his phone.They looked at it.They cleared him.Now he's charged with this.And I reread the indictment over the weekend.And this is the key sentence that's doing a lot of the work for the government in its case.Prior to the Hornets March 23rd, 2023 game, Rozier informed the defendant De Niro Laster, who's one of his friends,
01:15:41that Rozier was going to prematurely remove himself from the game in the first quarter due to supposed injury and not return to play further.Supposed injury is strong, and I don't believe proven it anywhere, by the way.Rozier provided this is the key.Rozier provided this information to Laster for the purpose of enabling Laster to placewagers based on this information.That's the key is guys, I said this on Thursday.You cannot possibly police players from talking to their friends, their friends around the league,their friends in life about, yeah, man, my fucking coach is going to sit me tonight or, you know, blah, blah, blah.
01:16:28out, whatever.And what happens to that information once they share it with somebody is out of their control.If you share it with someone for the express purposes of gambling on it, that's a different thing.And I think the players union and probably the league would look at this indictment,are looking at this indictment, and say, I don't know that the government's proventhat Terry Rozier did that.Maybe they have, maybe they have it.And I think the government would say, well, we have this thing of them counting money a few days
01:16:57after the bet that's proof. And I think the players union for sure would be like, well,okay, like if the league just used that as proof, they would grieve it. And that's the other thingthat wanted to, and this will all wash out. Like, one way or another, two things are true. Number one,the sports books caught all this right away, the aberrational activity. Number two, if that setof circumstances is, is this proven, whoever the player is we saw with Jonathan Porter, you are goingto be banned for life. Everybody in the league is going to know from players to trainers to equipmentmanagers to everyone who is access to this information that you're going to be banned your career'sover your ability to make money for basketball is over um what else is i going to say about uh
01:17:39roger oh the heat surely have a lot of questions right march 23rd 2023 aberrational bettingis um detected the league begins an investigation they are clear to air rogerThe league probably at some point and understands that terrorism remains under investigation by the federal government.Do the heat know?Do the hornets know when they trade him to the heat?Do the heat have any recompense here?And connected to that, I could see people saying, well, if the league knew that, why did they let him play?Why didn't they put him on leave like they do now?
01:18:25Why didn't they suspend him?And the answer is because the collective bargaining agreement exists and makes it very difficult to doand the union would put up a very stinky fight about it and maybe and maybe probably win.But there's just a lot of thorny issues here.Not the least of which Kurt Goldsbury is a former league employee.I'll bet you the tanking stuff stuck out to you too, right?Because there's the betting on the unders and then there's the exploitation of tanking information.And tanking is just baked into the league.
01:18:53It's going to exist as long as there is a lottery weighted however you want that favors the worst teams.And that was almost the most interesting part of the indictment to me was that a coach who matches the description of Chauncey Billups told a friend that we're sitting everybody tonight.And that friend then allegedly went and bet on the games.Now did Chauncey do that knowing that that information is going to be used that way?That's unclear in the indictment.In fact, it's not unclear.It's not alleged that he did.I don't think.
01:19:26Maybe I'd have to go reread it.But it's not what he's charged with.He's charged the poker indictment, not this.There's another one where an Orlando Magic player tells another part-time NBA player,sometimes NBA player that he's friends with.Allegedly, the gamblers talk to this other player and say, hey, go talk to your buddy withthe magic, see if you can get something.And they dig gossip like they do.
01:19:48I don't know what you're supposed to do about that.That's the difference between Damon,Jones and Rozier, for instance, is Rozier, the, you use this knowledge for betting thingis a little vague compared to Damon Jones where there are text messages to him saying,yo, this player is out tonight, play some bets and let me get some money.I just don't know if there's a reckoning with tanking.Tanking is just what it is.Most sports have drafts that reward the worst teams as a way of instituting competitive
01:20:19balance.It's just, you know, and the end, and I don't know, what are yourthoughts. I'm rambling.Well, yeah, there's so many things there.Tanking is interesting. I hadn't really thought about it in those terms, but, yeah, Iwatch a lot of college football or English Premier League, and rarely are those teams tryingto lose. Like, that's just not something that those leagues have. And so, you know,when you're talking about a betting market, the idea that a team would be trying to lose is
01:20:42relatively unique to the NBA. And it is a fact. And if they could get to a world where teamsaren't incentivized to lose, that might clean up some of this. The other thing is,as a data scientist, I think it's a lot easier to detect, what did you call it, aberrationalbetting, unusual patterns with player props than it is with big game money lines. Like, I can putmoney on the Blazers to lose at a pretty big number by myself and not raise a bunch of red flagsthan if I bet a bunch of weird Terry Rozier props at a big number. I think those systems arereally good at flagging unusual prop bets and might not be as good at individual games.I could be wrong on that, but that's something that crossed my mind as you were talking.
01:21:29And getting that right and getting the communication between, that layer of safety that wehave between the betting, because one of the best arguments for legalizing betting is what?We can flag this stuff now.And it's all above board.And if it were illegal, we couldn't flag this kind of suspicious activity.So I think getting that layer of informing the leagues that there is suspiciousbetting behavior happening, I think getting that right is absolutely critical.And if they're not getting it right, we have a big problem.
01:22:02And what proof do we have about what the NBA learns from Fanduel or Draft Kingsas they go through these important processes?That's interesting to me.But ultimately, I think I'm coming around to the idea, and Bill was saying this the otherday two. Why do we have all these player props? Why am I allowed to bet on TerryRoger or Jante Porter over unders in a game against the Wizards or whatever? What purpose?Who is this serving? Like this is, this is seems like one of the more tempting things to look at tofix it. Well, and and we have breaking news. The league sent a memo today according to
01:22:39Shams Sharania from ESPN. I'll just read his tweets. NBA informed it's 30 teams that theleague has begun the process of reviewing policies regarding injury reporting, training andeducation of all personnel, i.e. be quiet, and enhancing internal and external monitoring toidentify betting activity of concern. The injury reporting is very, very important.We saw it with Towns in the very first game of the season for the Knicks where he's doubtful,questionable, probable, then he plays. They've seen it go the other way where someone's probable, andthen they don't play, and it's all just like teams treat this like, it's so secretive, like,oh my God, we've got a trick.
01:23:16We've got to trick the Cavaliersinto thinking towns might play or might not play.Like the coaching staffs haven't,don't have, like, if suddenly a playeris not playing the opposing coach staffs,oh, we're helpless, we got to stick with the originalgameplay, we don't know what to do.It's like doesn't have to be this secretive.
01:23:31Just make a time and make it clear.Now, I still think you could,if you're tanking, which is just, again,it's part of the world, you could just like sit peoplefor D&P coaches' decision as long as they're not.Like, the Blazers,could say Jeremy Grant.He doesn't fall under the player participation policy.
01:23:49I think they could.And then Shams also says, according to the memo,while the unusual betting on Terry Rogersunder's in the March 2020 game was detected in real timebecause the bets were plays legally.Every memo is meant for the public.I mean, my God, we believe there is more that can be donefrom a legal regulatory perspective to protect the integrity of the NBA
01:24:09in our leagues, in particular prop bets on individual player performances.This is what, you know, get rid of the under,on players who don't play very much.The injury reporting is a whole other,a whole other thing.It's like, I don't know how many more players,if any, are going to be ensnared by this,this Rozier sort of orbit.
01:24:29It may be none.And Chauncey, the thing of Chauncey or the co-conspiratorthat matches his description telling this guythat they're going to sit everybody before the public knows itis very problematic.But again, it's unclear if he does.did it for whatever purposes.I don't know.
01:24:46I'm just...The saddest things, Zach, low is this.The integrity of an average NBA game,and you and I watch six of them tonight, you know, or whatever.The integrity and the public perception of the integrity of an average NBA gamehas gotten dinged in the last week.And that's just sad.And if this is, quote, unquote, the tip of the iceberg, which some people are saying it is,
01:25:08and I'm sure you've heard that too, like, this sucks.It just sucks.It's just depressing and sad.Maybe I'm naive.I don't think it's the tip of the iceberg because the iceberg is much larger than the tip.If it's the tip of the iceberg, that means there's like a lot of other players underneath this.And I don't think that metaphor is going to hold.Maybe I'm naive.
01:25:25We'll see.Breaking news before we go.Kurt Goldsbury mentioned Anthony Edwards hamstring.He is going to miss, according to news reports, two weeks.I don't think it's reevaluated in two weeks.I just think he's going to miss two weeks.Yes, Sean's tweeting that he's going to miss two weeks with the right hamstring strange sources tell.ESPN. I assume a press release will be coming out soon.
01:25:48Here is their schedule in the next two weeks.Tonight versus Denver. That hurts.Yep.Versus the Lakers on Wednesday.Yeah. At Charlotte, better try to win that one. At Brooklyn, better win that one.At the Knicks. That's tough. Versus Utah. Winnable at Kings. Winnable at Utah.Winnable versus Sacramento. Again, winnable.So not ideal. But if you're a good team, and this goes back to the point guard void,
01:26:14though that we talked about before.This is going to really stress Devinchenzo and Conley.Maybe we get Dillingham some minutes finally because of this.Randall will have to do more playmaking.But if you're a real team, and I believe the wolves are, you find a way, let's justsay there's nine games I just mentioned, you'd find a way to go five and four, four and five.Stay afloat.This shouldn't just destroy you.
01:26:34But obviously hamstrings, all this stuff tread carefully, get it right, get back healthy.Yeah.Well, and for those of us, you know,know, eager to see Terrence Shannon, Jr. get a chance. Like, they're going to need somescoring, and I'm a big Terrence Shannon Jr. guy. I think he's going to get a good look at somemore shots. I think this back court is now even weaker, and we just talked for five minutes abouthow they don't have a real point card. Terrence Shannon has a chance to come in and really showcase,I think, what's a pretty high ceiling for that guy is a scorer. But it's a critical moment for
01:27:12Julius Randall too, to keep it.Because again, there's no room for error in the Western Conference.Last year, it was like five teams jammed up by three games.So any kind of two weeks slump is going to cost you in the Western Conference standing.So I...That's true.I just hope they get it right.And again, back in two weeks.
01:27:32Other teams will get dinged with injuries like this across the way.But six of their next whatever 10 games are a combined against Charlotte, Brooklyn, Utah, andSacramento.Just win.Find a way to win.find a way to win like most of those games in Minnesota.Kurt Goldsbury, what can we promote?What do you got coming?
01:27:47I'm off this week.I just did the Zach Lowe show.I am working on some Wemby stuffand some Cooper Flagg stuff,but nothing coming right away.Those are good.I will be going to a lot of gamesthis year in San Antonio and Dallas.
01:28:01Yeah, it's a fun place to go see games.Kirk Goldsbury of the ringer.comand if you buy his books,I've got all his books.I've got his map right behind me here.The Naismith basketball.International Park. Kirk, you're the man. Thank you, sir. Thank you.All right, that's it for the Zach Lowe show today. Thank you to Kirk Goldsbury.
01:28:21That's a loaded show. We got to a lot, a lot of basketball, a lot of not basketball, a lot oflooking forward to what's coming up around the league. Thanks to Jesse, Jonathan, and Mike on production.We will see you later this. Well, thanks to you actually for listening and watching wherever youget your podcast. We'll see you later this week, likely on Thursday, barring something crazyhappening in between, which is the NBA, so you never know. Thank you.all for listening to The Zach Lowe Show.Must be 21 or over in President SelectStates for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star
01:28:50Casino or 18 and over in President D.C., Kentuckyor Wyoming gambling problem.Call 1-800 gambler or visit RG-Help.com.Call 1-888-789-7777-7 or visit ccpg.orgslash chat in Connecticut or visit MDGamblinghelp.org in Maryland.Hope is here.Visit gambling helpline, MA.org or call 800-327-50-50 for 247support in Massachusetts.
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