3 Takeaways - Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (#227)

Episode Date: December 10, 2024

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are all determined to subvert America. Nobody knows more about this than former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who has worked for three presidents and five secretaries of state. Hear what this foreign policy expert says America must do to remain dominant, how AI will impact the world order, and much more.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, many have believed that superpower conflict was over and that democracy had won. But that belief has been upended with the rise of China, the Russia-Ukraine War, and increasing ties between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. China, after decades of rapid growth, has become the second largest economy in the world after the United States, with an economy about the size of the entire European Union.

And China, Iran, and North Korea have each been supporting Russia in its war in Ukraine. China is supplying vital components for Russia's war effort. Iran is producing drones and ballistic missiles. And North Korea is providing troops. These four countries, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, all share an antipathy to the United States and to democracy. How important is this growing cooperation between these four countries and what are

its implications? Hi everyone, I'm Lynne Toman and this is Three Takeaways. On Three Takeaways I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today I'm excited to be with Wendy Sherman.

She's an American diplomat who served as the United States Deputy Secretary of State from 2021 to 2023. Before that, she served as Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. In that role, she was the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal. She led the U.S. team during multiple negotiating rounds between Iran and other world powers. Before that, she was the North Korea coordinator. Ambassador Sherman has worked for three presidents and five secretaries of state. I'm looking forward to finding out how she sees the world today, including the growing cooperation among China, Russia,

Iran, and North Korea, as well as other issues, such as the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the world order and the growing competition in space. Welcome, Wendy, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today. Good to be with you, Lynn. Thanks for the conversation. Thank you.

And thank you for your service in government. Let's start by talking about individual countries. How do you see China? Well, China, as the administration has said, is really the pacing challenge for all of us. It is the only country with the wherewithal to compete effectively with the United States. It is building its military, including its nuclear arsenal. Xi Jinping has been very clear about what he wants to achieve, which is to create a new world order in the mold of China.

And so this is quite critical. It is the economy that really can begin to match ours. That said, we need to build a floor under our relationship with China and the Biden-Harris administration has been able to do that in spite of some really tough challenges. Can you elaborate on that floor?

I would say the floor is plywood. It's not mahogany or oak yet. We were about to head off to China, actually, Secretary Blinken, and although it was unusual, I was going to go with him on a visit to the PRC when this mysterious balloon crossed the United States. And that spy balloon created a situation where, in fact, the secretary had to postpone his visit. Ultimately, that visit happened. Various other cabinet secretaries also went. We reestablished a military-to-military dialogue, which is absolutely critical to make sure that we have a channel so that there won't be mistakes or miscalculations, that we're able to talk with each other about military issues. We've worked hard together on fentanyl because most of the precursor chemicals come from China, are assembled in Mexico and come across the United

States. We've seen a decline in the number of fentanyl deaths here in the United States, which is partly because of that work. And we've continued to have a diplomatic channel, which is absolutely critical as we try to make sure that our great power and this developing power don't come to blows. How do you see Russia? Oh, goodness. Putin is quite a leader. He is without a doubt a very serious authoritarian leader. He has control of all of the media in his country.

His citizens have come on board with his belief that Ukraine should be part of the Russian Federation. He sees this in deep historical terms. And clearly, he is willing to lose many, many lives of Russian citizens. And only recently, because of Ukraine's ability to hit inside Russia, are the Russian people themselves coming to understand what's really going on, as opposed to the propaganda. Putin has allowed his economy to suffer as a result of the sanctions. But nonetheless, he is committed to what I believe in his own mind is an ideological and historical battle. is an ideological and historical battle. His new relationship with North Korea,

as well as a deepening relationship with Iran, is cause for great concern, of course, because North Korea has sent troops. We've now seen, it appears, that Yemeni or Houthi soldiers have come as well. So we have quite a battle going on. How do you see Iran? Iran is a very complicated country. We tend to think of Iran as completely one because

it has a supreme leader, but it too has politics. The new Iranian president had hoped to create a better relationship with the West, get rid of some of the sanctions, help improve the economy because the vast majority of Iranians are under the age of 35 and need to have a future that they can look forward to. But the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Quds Force, which through the budget finance has, blah, hamas, helped the Houthis create the drones that Russia has used in Ukraine, don't want that kind of reconciliation because they own a lot of the black market parts of the economy.

They would lose that advantage. They would lose their power within Iran, fight hard against that era for reform. We just saw today when we are taping this that Lara Jani, who is a counselor to the Supreme Leader, has called for recreating a negotiation with the West and with the United States. And indeed, at the end of November, the E3, Great Britain, France and Germany are going to be meeting with the Deputy Foreign Minister, Majid Takra von Chi, who is one of my counterparts in the Iran negotiation, to talk about a way forward. And how do you see North Korea?

North Korea in many ways is the most difficult player here in that Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, has built an enormous nuclear arsenal and clearly has growing missile capability to project those missiles all the way to the United States. It seems it's difficult to deter him from whatever he plans to do in the future. He has sent North Korean soldiers to Russia to help in the war in Ukraine. And some people expect that he'll send as many as 100,000 North Koreans. And in return, I'm sure he's getting some hard cold cash that he needs, as well as assistance with missile and nuclear technology. So this is very concerning.

It's meant that South Korea, which has ammunition the Ukrainians need, is indeed getting more engaged in the conflict. And South Korea and Japan have reconciled to a large degree understanding that together they have to confront a growing China and Kim Jong-un who has literally broken down any relationship between North and South Korea. And how do you see this increase in cooperation and alliance among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea? How important is it? Well, I think we all have to be careful about not overselling this. Some people call it the axis of chaos. Some people call it an alliance of adversaries. I'm not sure how deep it really goes,

how intertwined it is. China probably is pretty irritated with North Korea's relationship with Russia and may create a place for disruption of that relationship and perhaps a way for the United States to talk with China about deterring North Korea from taking adverse actions. So this is a little bit more complicated. Each of these countries has its own interests. Where those interests align, they will undoubtedly already are working together, but their interests don't always align.

And so we have to be careful about over expecting that all four of these countries will work in harmony with each other. So we need to take it case by case, understand each instance, look for where these countries have powerful stakes in other parts of the world, and make sure that we're doing really tough analysis before we come to too many conclusions. And what do you think that the United States and its democratic allies need to do? Well, first of all, I think we need to do what President Biden has been doing, which is invest in our own country, make sure that we have the economic strength that

we've always had. And indeed, we are now the world's strongest economy as of this date. Our GDP, our growth has really snapped back. And even though individual Americans don't yet feel all of it in their pocketbooks, in their lived lives day by day, as we've just seen in our last election, nonetheless, we have the world's strongest economy right now. We also are planning for the future. We know the future is going to be one

of artificial intelligence, quantum biotech, and the investments that President Biden, along with bipartisan work by the Congress, which surprises people, have made investments that are going to be critical to our future. We need to continue to make such investments. We have to invest in our military, in our recruitment, in the weapons of the future, which

will be very different from the conventional weapons of the past. We have to reform how we fight wars because it's going to be quite different. We've already seen the impact of drones in Russia's illegal and horrifying invasion of a sovereign country. We need to invest in our alliances and partnerships.

I know that the president-elect has said that he's gonna challenge NATO and has even said he might leave NATO. He can't do that without an act of Congress because of legislation that's been passed. My guess is he will challenge European countries to spend more on their own defense. It's important they've already done so. NATO, in my view, remains a critical security alliance for Europe and for everyone's future.

But Europeans are looking at what they themselves need to do to strengthen their own capacity, which will then strengthen the relationship with the United States. We have to look to alliances and relationships in the rest of the world. I think it's very important that President Biden held an African summit, a Pacific Islands summit, an ASEAN summit, that he has strengthened what's called the Asian Quad, which is India, Japan, the United States and Australia. Worked with the UK on AUKUS, a new security relationship with Australia to help them build nuclear powered submarines to increase deterrence in the Pacific.

So I think there are a lot of things that we've done. to help them build nuclear powered submarines to increase deterrence in the Pacific. So I think there are a lot of things that we've done. And I certainly hope the president elect understands how important they are to the security of the United States. Is there a way to reduce the incentives for China to deepen its ties with Russia and Iran? I think China will do what it perceives is in its interest. What the United States needs to do

is make sure that we have dialogue with China, that we compete and insist on a level playing field, that we see where we can cooperate, that we ensure that we don't fall into conflict and hope China keeps those channels open so they don't as well. We haven't talked yet about Xi Jinping's declaration that he will unify Taiwan with mainland China.

He has said he wants to do that peacefully, but if not, he'll do whatever it takes to make that happen. That of course is extraordinarily of great concern to us because we believe that Taiwan has a right to its current trajectory while maintaining a strong relationship with the mainland. We have a one-channel policy, as you know. And I think everyone now knows that some of the most sophisticated chips in the world are produced in Taiwan. And so we all need to make sure that those chips are available to all countries, not just to mainland China. There are certainly challenges over Taiwan.

China. There are certainly challenges over Taiwan. Is there anything else the United States can do to protect Taiwan, to deter China? The Taiwan Relations Act, which was passed in bipartisan fashion by Congress, requires us to support Taiwan in ways that it's able to defend itself. So Taiwan has purchased sophisticated technology. They're trying to build their own reserve force, their own civil defense, their own asymmetric capabilities with our support and help. And I think it's critical that we continue to do just that. Could Taiwan survive if there were a naval blockade of Taiwan by China?

I think this is obviously of enormous concern. And I think Taiwan is trying to make plans to be able to survive that. But I think that a lot of people believe that that may be a likely trajectory by China, and one that we all have to be mindful of. Historically, countries with leading technologies such as gunpowder and steams we all have to be mindful of. Historically, countries with leading technologies, such as gunpowder and steamships, were able to dominate other countries. Some people, such as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who was recently a guest on Three Takeaways,

believe that artificial intelligence will reorder the power of nations with the countries who lead in AI able to dominate. How do you see AI and its potential impact on the world order? Well, it's sort of hard for me to question in any way what Eric Schmidt says since he understands AI better than I ever will. But I have no doubt that artificial intelligence is going to be critical. One of the things I'm really proud of having been part of is working with Secretary Blinken to create a new Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy and an Office for Emerging Technologies at the Department of State.

And what I said to diplomats is how we do diplomacy, how the world's going to operate, is going to change dramatically. And it's not going to be a 40 year industrial revolution. It's here now, and it's only going to grow in its power. And so we have to understand it, know how to use it, be ready for it. And again, those investments that President Biden, Vice President Harris, along with a bipartisan Congress have made are critical to our future in AI. This is going to be very challenging.

We have to compete against China, which is the other looming AI power for having the technologies and the capacity. We have the most advanced technology companies in the world. China has some as well. We have to keep going. We have to make sure that the incentives are there, but the protections as well. And the United States has had a very hard time coming up with norms, let alone regulations or laws that help us manage artificial intelligence. And then as quantum comes along and biotech those arenas as well.

So I think this is an area where I hope all administrations will focus a lot of attention and not let technology companies just do whatever they want to do whenever they want to do it because that tends to be rather freeform without any concerns for privacy or any concerns for managing those technologies and the use of those technologies. Countries are increasingly focused on space. How important is space and how do you see the increasing competition in space? I think space is a domain of extraordinary importance.

All of our communications capabilities reside in space. What we're discussing now on this internet, on this Zoom, is possible because of satellites in low space. We have to be very careful because the use of weapons in space is going to become more and more likely. We saw earlier in the public press a discussion about the Russians perhaps creating a nuclear-capable weapon in space. That, of course, would be of enormous concern. We have to make sure that our satellite system, which manages our communications, can't be disabled, because that would be obviously catastrophic for the United States and for the world and its ability to communicate.

So these are very serious issues about which both our intelligence communities, our defense community, and our diplomatic community are very, very engaged. Before I ask for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today, is there anything else you'd like to mention that you haven't already talked about? What should I have asked you, Wendy, that I have not? Individuals often, when they think about these things,

really don't think about them. They're complicated and difficult. And we have an information space that is very individualistic now. People don't watch the same evening news. They don't listen to the same podcasts. For the most part, people don't listen to the same podcasts, for the most part people don't read newspapers even digitally. How people get information is very individualized. And as a result, we don't share facts, we don't share information, we believe what we

read and what we read is often quite different. How we bridge this different information space so that we can come to a common understanding is really crucial for the future and for democracy. If we don't share facts, then we cannot go forward. So I think it's really important as we educate our children that we help them understand how to read and absorb information, how to discern facts, how to make sure what we know what is authentic from what is inauthentic, and how to engage in civic space, how to be a really good citizen and what that requires of each of us.

And that I think is as critical for the future as almost anything else. I agree with you. What are the three takeaways you would like to leave the audience with today? I think the first is that every individual has a responsibility to really learn how to absorb and assess information, to know what facts are, and to be a good citizen. The second takeaway would be that we often think that we are finished with an issue. When World War I happened, people thought it was the war to end all wars. And yet 20 years later,

which is just a blip in history, we had World War II. World affairs and the issues in front of us require persistence. It's very easy to get depressed and to think there's nothing you can do or that something you thought was resolved has raised its ugly head again. But that means we must persist. Which leads me to the third takeaway. Democracy, as I wrote in my own book, is not for the faint of heart. One has to work at it. One has to persist.

One has to educate oneself. We have enormous challenges as we've been discussing on this podcast, but we can go forward. We can ensure our democracy, but it takes all of us to do it. And so I'm very grateful for podcasts like yours, Lynn, where we can have a conversation and people can begin to understand what's required of each of us. Thank you, Wendy. Thank you for your service in government and thank you for our conversation today. Take care. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at ThreeTakeAways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is 3 Takeaways. Thanks for listening.