3 Takeaways - Norway’s Former Minister of Defense and Foreign Affairs: Are Chaos and Upheaval the New Norm? (#213)

Episode Date: September 3, 2024

The world is on a wild ride — two wars, massive immigration, fractured political parties. Are chaos and upheaval the new normal? Norway’s former Minister of Defense and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ine Eriksen Søreide, shares her wise perspective on the threat of Russia, the critical role of the U.S., coping with immigration and more.

Massive changes are taking place in society and politics. I've just had a fascinating conversation with Fareed Zakaria about how politics has been scrambled and the old left-right division of politics has faded and been replaced with a new open-closed paradigm. That's episode 209. Globally, the unipolar world with overwhelming U.S. dominance has been replaced with a more multipolar world. We now have two wars. We also have many countries unsettled by globalization, massive immigration, and a fracturing of political parties. What's the view from outside the U.S.? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Thoman, and this is Three

Takeaways. On Three Takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today, I'm excited to be with Ina Eriksson-Soraida. She was Minister of Defense and then Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway. She is a member of Norway's Parliament and Chair of the Standing Committee of Foreign Affairs and Defense. She is the perfect person to ask about the social, political, and defense disruptions roiling our world today. Welcome, Minister Saraita, and thanks so much for joining Three Takeaways today.

Thank you so much, Lynn, for having me. It's great to be on your show. It is a pleasure and an honor to have you. So thank you. What does the world look like from Norway? It's a big question to ask, but what is striking in our part of the world is how much things have changed over the past years and how much more of a dramatic security policy situation surrounds us now compared to before. And of course, in our continent, Russia's war against Ukraine is probably the most kind of defining feature. But we also, of course, are deeply engaged in issues like the war between Israel and Hamas. We are very concerned about what is happening in Gaza. And I think that when you

look at it from above, where you take a first perspective on things, you will see that the world right now is so much more unpredictable that it's very difficult to fully grasp what will happen next and how things will look if you try to turn the clock two or five years forward. And I think this is the feeling that a lot of people have everywhere in the world, I think, where you see that the normality that we've been used to has been upended. And I mean, I belong to a generation, I was born in 1976, who've had the pleasure, I would say, and the joy of enjoying almost only prosperity and almost only steps forward. Things have not been disrupted in any

meaningful way in my lifetime. And I think everyone projected that this would continue for the next 30 years. And then suddenly things come to a very abrupt halt and the world around us is shifting, changing. And we just have to get used to and to realize that all of these changes, all of these disruptions, everything is going to be part of a new normal that we just have to relate to in a way. How do you see the United States? Well, I think for a country like Norway, the US is our closest ally, and we work so closely together on so many topics spanning from security policy, defense intelligence to trade. And we have such a broad menu of areas where we cooperate. And what has been quite interesting to see over

time is that different Norwegian governments, regardless of who they comprise of, and different American administrations have been very eager to continue that collaboration and cooperation and, if anything, deepen it over time. But of course, it is also a very important part of our NATO membership to have this very close alliance with the US, both for NATO as an alliance, but also for us bilaterally. And we have in recent years signed new security and defense cooperation agreements. We are purchasing a lot of US equipment, both new F-35s, P-8s, and we are extending our collaboration in many aspects. And I think the relationship with the US is strong also because we have neutral benefits from having

this relationship. I mean, we are a country with Russia as our neighbor, with the high north as a theater where things have been relatively calm and low tension until now. Now we are seeing that things are changing. It's changing because of Russia's behavior. It's changing because different actors now have interests they want to pursue in the Arctic. And it's changing because of climate change. And the ice is retracting, new sailing routes are opening, new activity is coming. And that is why I think it is important to continue to deepen our relationship with the US. And of course, it also means that sometimes we disagree, and we are quite open and frank about that both ways. You will see when you come to visit Norway, that we have a very keen

interest in US politics, in American society. I mean, when you look at the US, you consist of more people with Norwegian heritage than there are Norwegians in Norway right now. So this also has historical roots and historic bonds. So you will see that this corporation is very strong. And we're such a small country in the big pond that we need to work like that. And investing in our alliance, investing in our allies, in our relationship with our allies, is maybe the best investment that we can do. Can I ask you about immigration, which has been a huge issue in many countries? What effect has immigration had on Norway and how successful has Norway been at integrating immigrants?

Well, I think most countries, most Western countries have challenges when it comes to integration. So has Norway. And we have had a controlled, but of course, also quite liberal immigration policies for many, many years. And we have now received a whole host of Ukrainian refugees, and they are integrating quite well, I would say. And they are very welcomed. So were the large influx of Syrian refugees that came in the years 2015-2016. But we are a country of 5.5 million people, which means that we also have limitations, both when it comes to integration. We need to integrate people into the workforce, into education. Language is a huge issue, of course. You are much better placed to be able to participate and contribute when you have a language skill that makes everything easier for you.

So integration is an issue in almost all European countries. What I do think we have to be aware of is how closely interlinked everything is in the world at the moment, meaning that when we see a very unstable belt in the Sahel, that could lead to more immigrants coming to Europe. When we see climate change taking people's livelihoods away, that could also lead to more immigration. Conflict, which we see popping up everywhere in the world, not only between countries, but also inside of countries, that could also lead to more immigration. So we have to realize that we have to take part in the responsibility to make life better for people, other places in the world, because most people do not want to migrate. Most people want to stay in their country with their family. And most of those who flee their country go to their neighboring country, their next

neighboring country. Only a few actually do come to Europe or to the US, but that is very often because they are left with no other options. So I think that is a huge issue for discussion both now and in the future, and to see how climate conflict and bad livelihoods is kind of driving migration as well. Norway has a long border, 125 miles or so with Russia. And your job as Norway's Minister of Defense and then Minister of Foreign Affairs made you the key person in your country's relationship with Russia. How do you see Russia and Norway's relationship with Russia? Well, after the full-scale war on Ukraine, there has been very limited, if any, political contact. We still have some practical cooperation

that we need to conduct for the safety of our citizens, typically search and rescue, Coast Guard, Border Patrol. And we've upheld that also after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which I think is when this war really started. And it's been vital for the government that I was part of to have a very firm and predictable stance towards Russia. We limited the political contacts in the period after 2014 and the annexation. And I think for everyone who has seen how Russia has conducted both the war and politics in Europe ever since the beginning of the 2000s, we'll see a very clear

pattern. And if we just, for the sake of conversation here, date back to the Putin speech in Munich in 2007, he laid out more or less the game plan for what his intentions were. And he talked about how humiliating and how devastating he felt that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was. And I would say laid out his aspirations for gathering the old Soviet Union again in some shape or form, meaning that he would like the opportunity to exert decisive influence over the former Soviet republics and what they were doing and what kind of security policy affiliations, what kind of alliances they were in and so forth. And then came the attack on Georgia in 2008, with little or no response from the Western communities and Europe. And then, of course,

the annexation of Crimea in 2014. And if you look at the attack on Georgia in 2008, it was met with, I would say, a very muted Western response. There was really no consequence for Russia in it. The collaboration between Russia and European and Western countries continued almost as before. There were no sanctions. There was nothing to suggest that they had just attacked a neighboring country with obvious intentions. And then the annexation of Crimea came, and it was met with stronger reactions, I would say. And the EU, for instance, formed the so-called restrictive measures that we took part in from the beginning, even though we're not an EU member. They were, to a certain extent, helpful, but they were not enough. It should have been more.

In my opinion, all of these attacks on countries and also the speech he gave in Munich in 2007 were precursors of what was to come. And I think we should have seen much clearer how this was going to play out. And I think if the independence of Russian energy had come before, instead of building up the collaboration on energy with Russia, it would have had a stronger economic effect for them already back then. And that would have hurt more than many of the restrictive measures did at the outset. Russia is an actor who only understands hard talk and power. Meaning that if you have a meeting or negotiation with a Russian minister, you will know very quickly that you have to answer everything that is put

on the table and push it back if you disagree. Otherwise, it's seen as you are accepting the narrative or accepting the claim. And you can say much of the same when it comes to how they have been conducting themselves in Europe and towards Ukraine, Georgia and other countries, that as long as they feel that they can live with the price and the risk, it's okay for them, because they have all the time and also apparently, all the young Russian lives that they can possibly mobilize to continue the war. Nothing has changed in the ambitions of Russia, but it has enormous implications for the rest of Europe as well. Because if Russia wins this, it will be like changing the rules of the game completely because then it is not only okay to take parts of another country with force,

it will definitely set might before rights. And that is not acceptable for Europe, and it is not acceptable for the US. And that is also why this alliance to help and to support Ukraine is so strong. And that is why I think also that when you look at the developments in our close area in the north, we see that now one of the foremost strategic challenges to the whole alliance, including most definitely the US, is that most of the Russian Navy and most of the Russian Air Force is more or less untouched by the war and not used that much. And together with their nuclear arsenal, all of it has most of its operating bases, home bases and areas just outside our window up in the north. And they are commissioning very capable submarines, for instance, that poses

a real challenge. And that is also why the collaboration between the US and Norway is so extremely important, because we can see and we can follow what is happening up north. We share information with our allies. And of course, for Arctic nations like the US as well, this is really a matter of very high importance. How has Russia's aggressiveness and the Russia-Ukraine war impacted Norway and Europe? Oh, immensely. There is really a before and after February 2022. The war began actually in 2014. But the full scale war, of course, changed everything. It changed the narrative. It changed everything. And of course, Russia believed that this would be a one-week operation and then they would have control over Kiev.

And when that didn't happen, this kind of prolonged and very, very brutal war started. And the support for Ukraine in Europe is enormous. And I think it is extremely important for Ukraine to feel and to see in real life that support, not only from their neighbors in Europe, but also from the US. And I think that what has emerged over these years is a very, very clear pattern of increased brutality by Russia. But if they should win this, it would have a devastating effect on the whole of Europe and the US. And that is also why this continued support is so important. But it has changed Europe in so many ways. And I think it will still take some time to understand all of it.

But one thing that comes out of this, and that goes back to what I talked about earlier, the need for and the importance of alliances is just increasing. And I think everyone sees now that it is a huge advantage, whether you are a member of the EU or not, to have a strong European Union. It is a huge advantage that we've been able to turn NATO around since 2014 and now have an alliance that is fit for purpose. And I think we can also present a strong thank you to Secretary General Leon Stoltenberg for the work that he has done with allies and with the alliance. It has been extremely important at this time, but everything has changed. And I said back in 2014

that Norway's relationship with Russia is permanently changed. And I stand by that 10 years later. As you know, US support for Ukraine has become less certain, especially with members of the Republican Party. Is support for Ukraine a political issue in Norway or in Europe? I would say that we have also seen how this has become more polarizing in the US than it used to be. And you are better placed than me to point to the reasons for that. But in Norway, we have a very strong support for Ukraine. We have a support program that goes for five years, it's three years left of the program now, that has unanimous political support. So if anything, we are discussing the need to increase

the support program, both militarily and financially. There are some countries in Europe where there has been a little back and forth with support. But again, when that has occurred, when the EU, for instance, pledged more support to Ukraine, there were some countries that were very hesitant and reluctant. And then the EU just said, well, if you don't want to join, then countries can do this bilaterally. And the support, of course, was decided. So even though there are, of course, in some countries, some differences, I sense that the support is very strong and very solid among European countries. What do you think the potential endings of the Russia-Ukraine war could look like? And how would they impact Norway and Europe?

I'm afraid that I think this is a long haul war and that we still can see that this will go on for a long time and people continuing to be killed and injured, infrastructure being damaged and destroyed, apartment buildings torn down and people having huge traumas in Ukraine as a result of this war. But eventually, most wars end at the negotiating table. The point is that if that happens at some point, Ukraine has to have a position that is strong enough to be able to discuss and negotiate. And my fear is that Ukraine will be pushed into a negotiating situation before they are ready, before they are strong enough. But what comes out in the end is the fact that Ukraine has a right to sovereignty, they have a right to choosing their own security policy affiliations. And the people has a right

to decide whether or not they would become EU members. And interestingly enough, one of the biggest results of this war is that NATO has come closer to Russia and has been expanded by our two great neighbors, Sweden and Finland. What are you most worried about? I worry about the trend that we see globally now where authoritarian regimes are getting a stronger grip of more of the world's population. I'm concerned about undermining democracy and rule of law and liberal individual rights. And I'm concerned about the multilateral system being challenged from so many different angles and not enough countries standing up to defend it and reform it from the inside. I'm concerned about the aggressiveness of many actors and how war, how hybrid means, how disinformation,

influence operations, all of it is done to destabilize and to influence countries and their direction. So there's a lot to be worried about. But there are also rays of light. And I have a very firm and very strong belief that politics still matter. There's still both time and possibility to do something. But we have to work a bit differently than we have done before. I mean, it's not enough anymore to create Western alliances and think that they will do the trick. We have to reach out and make alliances with countries in different parts of the world. We have to form alliances with countries we don't always agree on everything else with, but maybe on a certain topic or certain topics, we could find

common ground and try to reform and restore the system. And we have to be vigilant on the rise of emerging powers who may have very different intentions than we are used to. And we have to have open discussions about this. What are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today? The first takeaway is that we must not believe that if we just wait it out, the world will click back to normal. This is the new normal. What we are experiencing now with a lot of uncertainty, with a lot of both potential conflicts and ongoing conflicts, a lot of pressure in many aspects, both towards the multilateral system, the institutions, and towards countries. This is what we need to understand is our new normal, our new reality, and our new everyday.

And that also means that we have to adjust to that and to regard and deal with the world as it is, not as we wish it was. And those two takeaways are important. The third one, just to add a little optimism into everything, is that politics still matter. We have the chance to do something about this. We just have to engage. It's going to cause blood, sweat and tears. It's going to cause blood, sweat, and tears. It's going to be difficult. But to try to uphold and to reform and to strengthen the system that is so important to all of us when it comes to our security, our prosperity, our working together with countries. And I think those three takeaways can hopefully sum up where I think we are and where we should be. Thank you, Minister Zereda, for your leadership

and for your time today for this conversation. Thank you so much, Lynn. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the Three Takeaways newsletter at threetakeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.