3 Takeaways - Why Most New Year’s Resolutions Fail by March - and the Science of What Actually Works (#282)

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

Most people quit their New Year's resolutions by March. The reason why might surprise you.University of Chicago professor Ayelet Fishbach has spent decades studying why we fail at goals. Her finding: willpower is overrated. What matters is something entirely different.In this episode, Fishbach reveals what actually separates those who succeed from those who quit and the strategies that make goals stick.

January 1st, we set a goal. Get fit, save money, learn Spanish, write a book. By March, we've given up. It's not because we don't care. So what's the secret to following through? Hi, everyone. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is three takeaways. On three takeaways, I talk with some of the world's best thinkers, business leaders, writers, writers, politicians, newsmakers, and scientists. Each episode ends with three key takeaways to help us understand the world and maybe even ourselves a little better. Today I'm excited to be joined by Aolette Fishback. Aalek is one of the world's leading experts on motivation. She's a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and author of Get It Done. Her research has won major awards and her work appears everywhere from the New York Times to NPR. She spent decades studying one question. Why do we start strong and then quit? More importantly, she's learned what actually works. If you've ever wondered

why you procrastinate, why your resolutions fail, and what you can do differently, Aolette has the answers. Welcome, Aolet, and thanks so much for joining three takeaways today. Thanks for having me. My pleasure. You followed people who made New Year's resolutions and checked in with them in March. What happened? Well, we checked in with them in March and all the way to the following November. And what we found is that people that stick to the resolutions are those that are intrinsically motivated, those that tell us back in January that they are looking forward to adhering to this resolution, that they find it interesting and engaging and maybe even a little bit fun.

And what percentage of people actually follow through? The data on news resolution is that about a third of the people are truly able to follow through on the resolutions. We find higher percentage because we allow people to partially follow through. So is it about willpower? Is lack of willpower why most people fail? No. It is not about willpower, and this is often a common meant.

Willpower is nice to have. Strategy is critical to have. Knowledge is critical. And people who know how to motivate themselves, we know how to set the situation and find the situation such that they have better chance in adhering to their goals and resolutions are better able to do it. it's not that they're necessarily stronger, they know more.

Does thinking your goal is really important actually help you achieve it or not? It helps you in the sense that if it's unimportant, you will not do it at all. But what we find predicts adherence is less the importance and more the engagement and the enjoyment. So it's less the long-term consequences and more about how it feels when you, engage with a goal. Let's talk more about the science behind achieving goals. Let's start with how we frame goals. Should people set a goal of be healthy or exercise three times a week, which works better

and more generally, how should people frame their goals? I would say that if your goal is to exercise three times a week and you don't know why, you are likely not going to follow through. and if your goal is to be healthy and you never quite figure out how you will likely not follow through. And so you need to, unfortunately, do both. You need to ask why and you need to ask how. Why do it three times a week? Because I want to be healthy.

How am I being healthy? Well, by exercising three times a week. What about time frames? For example, for people trying to write a book is right from 8 a.m. to noon. every day better than write a book? How should people use timeframes in setting a goal? Time frame is, you know, this is the problem that maybe it's too long. Maybe I want to say for retirement, and this is for the end of my career. And when the time frame is too long, then we see that motivation declines. Basically, in the middle, people are not motivated. They are

motivated at the beginning and the end in the middle, they're less so, and when there is a long middle, we have a problem. You want to have some limited time frame. You want to know what are you going to do to advance in your writing this week? Okay, what are you going to do today? What's the minimum unit of time that makes sense for you to set as a sub-goal and know how much you want to achieve by that time? So do numbers matter when you're setting? goals? Absolutely. Numbers motivate us if we set target, which is often how much and how soon we are more motivated than when we have a vague idea that we wish to do more. But be reasonable with your numbers. We know that more people finish a marathon under four hours than over four

hours because four hours is a very motivating target. People set a step goal and they are very motivated to meet this daily step goal. But we also know that marathon runners often suffer from injuries. And this is when they got too attached to their target and kind of forgot that the whole purpose for doing it is to be a healthier person, not to have injured. So use judgment. Yes. We tend to do what's easiest in the moment.

So is set up important, like laying out your gym clothes the night before? what should we do as far as set up? Planning in advance is a useful motivational strategy because we kind of anticipate that in the situation, we are going to respond to whatever is around us. And so many of us have a long club because we know that we are going to sleep in a nice, dark, cozy room,

but wake up in a noisy room. We know that if the gym shoes are already there, it will be easier to just go ahead than if there is any obstacle in the way. Putting healthy food in front of you and unhealthy food hidden in some kitchen cabinet door, that's going to create a situation in which you are more likely to follow through on your goals. So yes, planning in advance, prepare, set the situation so that you're going to respond to it in a way that advances your goals. You found that enjoyment predicts success. But what if the goal isn't enjoyable, like boring work or exercise

that you hate? What should people do then? So this is critical, right? Because do what you enjoy doing sounds easy and is easy. I like to eat ice cream and stay in bed late. But I'm not trying to motivate myself to engage in these activities. And so we set goals for things that are not easy, that are not necessarily very enjoyable. And now we need to find the enjoyment. Again, the intuitive way to pursue these goals. Certainly, you need to embrace some discomfort as you develop a new habit, as you're doing something new, something that is hard. It might not feel intuitive initially. It might be hard. It might not feel like, oh, this is who I am. And this discomfort makes sense.

Then beyond that, the initial discomfort, well, you need to find a relatively enjoyable way of doing it or an engaging way. It doesn't need to be enjoyment. It can be satisfying. It can feel good to know that I'm doing this. But in the long run, it has to feel good to do this. You want to be the person who wants to do this, not just the person who wish they already completed the call. So essentially think in your mind that you really want to accomplish this and that you'll feel good when you've done it.

That you will feel good doing it. Good can be you will feel satisfied. You will feel curious. You will feel like you are developing yourself. Sweating while exercising feels good. We don't like to sweat, but it feels like we are getting somewhere. How important is social support and what should we do if getting other? people involved is important? Social support is absolutely critical. As people, we are social

animals. We live in groups. We do everything that's important for us with other people, whether it's starting a company or a family or my research. We do it with others. And when others are not with us, they are in our mind. We read others recommendations. We read their reviews. I think about what my friend would say about that. So get the team on board, do it with others, and let people in your life know that this is what you're doing because we cannot really follow through our goals without social support. It's a naive strategy that will likely fail to just do it by yourself without telling anybody. So share with your close friends or colleagues.

keep them updated. Yes, share, connect, bring other people and see how you can have your social life and your motivation going in the same direction. When people set a goal, they often start out excited, but after a while enthusiasm drops. How do you combat that midpoint slump? The midpoint slump is a problem. The best way don't have a long meal. So that short sub-walls, okay, what am I going to do this week, okay, what am I going to do today other than what am I going to do this year? Now, you will always have some middle. We find that until the midpoint, it's often better to look back and say, I have done 10, 20, 30%. This is more motivating than I still have 70, 80, 90% to go.

And after the midpoint, you want to look at what is left. to do. So saying I have 10% to go is more auditing than I've already completed 90%. So focus on the positive of what we've already accomplished if you're before the midpoint. ALE, we all unfortunately know the what the hell effect. One cookie becomes the whole box. One missed workout becomes quitting completely. Why does one slip turn into total collapse? and what can we do to prevent that? It is tempting to conclude from failure and setback that this is just not for me,

that I am not cut for this goal or this job. I should just give up, we call it, learn helplessness. But then there are strategies to overcome these setbacks, to localize them, to understand that this is likely to happen. No journey is going to. not have setbacks. And then to think about what are we still learned there, okay? What went wrong? What variables in the situation should be adjusted so that I am less likely to sleep next time. If I have learned nothing from the sleep, then not only I have failed once, but I am likely

to fail again because there was no learning. So essentially expect to slip, be kind to ourselves when we slip because it sounds like we're human and are just going to slip and learn from the slip so we do better the next time. It's absolutely expected that you will slip. So don't bit yourself over this. But it is expected also that you will learn for me. So if you learn nothing, I would say that's something that should be revised. Okay. Let's put it all together very briefly. it's New Year's. Someone wants to get in shape. Walk me through what they should do step by step. I would start with setting a goal. What exactly do you mean by keeping in shape or getting in a better shape? What is the goal? How much? How soon? How do you make it exciting so you just cannot wait for the new year so you can start working on it?

Then how will you monitor progress? How will you know that you are moving ahead? hedge. How will you learn from Taylor? The strategy is social support. Who's helping you? Who's inspiring you? Who are your role models? Who's doing it with you? And then the fourth packet is everything else that is going on in your life. How this goal fits with your other goals. So you will be a healthy person, but you probably also want to still be a good family member. or you maybe care about your career, care about your community, what else is going on in your life and how getting in good shape can be in harmony with everything else. Before I ask you for the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today,

ALED, is there anything else you'd like to mention that you have not already touched upon? There is a lot that you can learn and apply to your own motivation. So I would say just be curious, okay, just now that we are all work in progress. And be curious to learn, to experiment, to try out things. And if they work, you've got treated. And if they don't work, you learn that you need to do something else. And what are the three takeaways you'd like to leave the audience with today? Motivation is knowledge, more than willpower.

You don't own your motivation. It's not something that you can lose. it's a tool, it's knowledge, it's something that we practice and constantly adjust. Number two, set goals that you look forward to doing, not just things that you wish you had already achieved. Be engaging in the process, be intrinsically motivated. And number three, your goals need to fit with each other. So organize them, okay? Maybe get rid of some. maybe like your closet, some goals need to be donated. Okay, give it to somebody else.

Keep that closet. Connect to each other that make you the happy and fulfilled person that you wish to be next year. Ale, thank you. This has been wonderful. It's very helpful to understand that achieving goals is not about willpower. It's really about understanding the science of achieving goals. I also very much enjoyed your book, Get It Done.

Thank you so much for having me, Lynn, and good luck to everybody. Let's do it next year. Oh, this year. That sounds terrific. I'm best wishes for the new year. Thank you. If you're enjoying the podcast, and I really hope you are, please review us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

It really helps get the word out. If you're interested, you can also sign up for the three takeaways newsletter at Three Takeaways.com, where you can also listen to previous episodes. You can also follow us on LinkedIn, X, Instagram, and Facebook. I'm Lynn Toman, and this is Three Takeaways. Thanks for listening.