32 Thoughts: The Podcast - Surprise Summer Emergency Pod

Episode Date: August 14, 2024

In this surprise summer emergency 32 Thoughts podcast, Elliotte Friedman delves into the St. Louis Blues' offer sheets on Edmonton Oilers Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. Elliotte also touches on the Toronto Maple Leafs captaincy changing from Tavares to Matthews (13:29). He also unpacks the Cody Glass trade from Tuesday (18:37), and Jeff Vinik beginning the sale process of the Tampa Bay Lightning (19:47). He finishes the podcast tying up a couple loose ends from around the league. Email the podcast at [e-mail] or call the Montana's Thought Line at 1-833-311-3232 and leave us a voicemailThis podcast was produced and mixed by Dominic Sramaty and hosted by Elliotte Friedman.The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Sports & Media or any affiliates. 

welcome to your 32 thoughts summer surprise out of nowhere podcast brought to you by the 2024 GMC Sierra Elevation and Montana's Barbecue and Bar I've been a little bit off hockey doing some Olympics relaxing but got some notes over the past couple of days and some big things happened so i figured why not drop a surprise pod on some people and see if they enjoy it so i hope you do okay first of all the thing everybody was talking about on tuesday the offer sheet the st louis blues doug armstrong with a stunning announcement on tuesday morning that they had offer sheet the st louis blues doug armstrong with a stunning announcement on tuesday morning that they had offer sheeted two members of the edmonton oilers philip broberg and dylan holloway broberg two years 4.58 million aav a third round pick if Edmonton doesn't match.

Now, some people said, could Edmonton trade these guys? No, they're locked in. And if Edmonton matches the offer sheets and they have seven days, they cannot trade those two players for a calendar year. So that's their contract. They can't pick and choose parts of the deal that they want to agree to or not. If they are signing these players and they are keeping these players, they have to match the contract exactly and cannot trade those players for a year, either Broberg or Holloway. And one of the things that's interesting about this is that St. Louis went to the maximum they could offer each player for those compensations.

If they had offered Broberg or Holloway a dollar more, it would have cost more than the second or the third. So this was targeted and this was strategic. Now, the interesting thing about this, and there's a lot of different ways we can look, but the interesting thing about this, let's start in a couple of different places. First of all, everybody knows how cap tight Edmonton is, and they're working on an extension that most people believe is going to happen for Leon Dreisaitl sometime over the next little while. So one of the things that kind of happened was I had heard that Broberg was asking from Edmonton a salary in the 1.8 range. That's kind of where he wanted to go. So if that's true, he just got basically 250% more than he was asking for from the Blues. So assuming that's the case and and i think that's in the ballpark it makes sense the blues just gave him 250 percent more than he was asking for holloway i heard well it depended he had arbitration rates in a year so they were talking

about a one-year deal which would could take him to Arb, or maybe a two-year deal, which would take him past Arb. But assuming it was a one-year deal, it was expected to be in about the one-two area. So he got almost 100% more than he was expecting. So these are massive raises, kind of poison pills, if you wish, that the Blues have given the Oilers. And there was also some strategic stuff about this, too. The timing was not accidental. I understand that one of the things the Blues had really worked on was getting both players to sign.

Like, nobody thought, from what I understand, and nobody here is talking, so this is secondhand stuff, but I think the information is good. I don't think anybody thought this was going to work if the Blues could only sign one of the two players. The feeling was they had to sign both of them, that that was the only way this was going to be able to work for St. Louis. And they eventually got it done with both players. But the other thing I heard was strategic here is that, you know, one of the things they were worried about was doing an

offer sheet and then having Edmonton trade for a player that was arbitration eligible and then allowing themselves to open up potentially a new buyout window. Because if you have a player who's eligible for arbitration, you can have a second buyout window in the summer. And they were worried that if Edmonton had gotten wind that this was going on, or if they did the offer sheet earlier or during that time, Edmonton would have been able to trade for a player like that and then use a buyout to get this done. You can do that.

I looked into this. I checked it. That can happen. For example, Nashville had a player a few years ago, Taylor Beck. He filed for arbitration, and the day before his case, he was traded to the Maple Leafs, and he signed there. So in theory, Edmonton could have done that. And I heard the Blues didn't even want to allow the Oilers that kind of escape

route. So there was a lot of stuff here that was pretty strategic. You know, I've heard some rumors that Edmonton had tried to sign Holloway and Broberg during the season to potentially avoid this kind of thing. I can't speak for Holloway, but one thing I had heard about Broberg, and I think a lot of the league had heard this, was that Broberg was going to punt any kind of contract discussions until the summer. He wanted to see how the season finished out for him to decide what he wanted his future to be.

Because don't forget, obviously, he was in the American Hockey League for a while. Would he be happy in Edmonton? Would he want to trade? Would he want to go elsewhere? Would he say, look, I'm not signing? So I don't even think signing Broberg in particular during the season was even an option. I also believe that when St. Louis and Edmonton talked about Pavel Bucinavich

before the Blues kept him and eventually extended him, I think the Oilers knew that the Blues liked both players. I think that when they were talking Buchnevich, and I don't know that he even came close to a deal, I think both Holloway and Broberg were players that the Blues had asked about. So at the very least, the Oilers knew that the Blues had some interest. I do expect here the Oilers will take their time. I think that they will look at all of their options. I know that there are just, and I don't know how seriously to take this because the Oilers

will ultimately make the decision. I think there are a lot of people who feel that Holloway is an easier match. You know, number one, he's played with some of your best players. He's a young player. It's a lower number. I think people feel that the harder match is going to be Broberg simply because of the number, the 4.58 and how much harder that is going to be to fix you know i think edmonton is a couple of options here there have been a lot of rumors floating around about evander kane this is what i believe is the truth i believe evander kane is going to have surgery i think that one of the reasons it's kind of taken until this long was because I think there were some conversations about who was going to do it, which doctor, and I think they had to work that out. And I think secondly, I also believe

that sometimes in the summer, doctor schedules, they take vacations like everyone else. And I think that also kind of affected it. They had to decide who was going to do it and then when was this doctor available. I believe that that decision has been made. Eventually, he will have the surgery and he's going to be out months. And I'm not talking like one or two months. I think it's going to be longer than that. Now, the one thing nobody knows at this point in time,

I can hear what all the Oilers fans are saying, bring him back, game one of the playoffs. Bring him back, game one of the playoffs bring him back game one of the playoffs like any team would I just don't know at this point in time and I'm not sure anyone does if the injury is going to last that long like I had some people say to me there's no guarantee that Kane's going to be out that long but at the very least what you can do is you can go over the cap 10% in the summer, and then you can punt this decision into the year. And at the very least, the Oilers could do that. You know, I'm sure Cody Ceci was happy that the summer kind of quieted down. This is going to give a whole new life to Cody Ceci trade rumors. You know, the thing I do believe is if the Edmonds

dollars wanted to make that move, they could. They had options, but I don't know yet that that's really what they want to do. However, now that St. Louis has done this, they might be boxed into it and forced into it. There are a lot of rumors about why St. Louis did this. You can imagine from Peter Shirely, who works for the Blues, hates the Oilers and wanted to screw them, to Doug Armstrong's regular golf buddy and golf opponent sometimes ken holland uh worked the behind the scenes to get this done to doug armstrong and stan bowman were huge rivals huge rivals and from the chicago st louis days and doug armstrong wanted to do this for that reason there are a lot of theories being thrown out there about why Doug Armstrong wanted to do this. I think at the bottom line, it comes down to this. As we head into the draft,

there were a lot of rumors that the Blues were not happy with where they were and that they were going to be active and they were going to try to do something to change their fortunes. I think they took a run at Martin Natchez, but they couldn't make a deal. I think they made a run at some things in free agency and trades. They did some stuff, but not others. But I do think at the end of the day,

Armstrong was not happy with his lineup and he saw he saw two young players he thinks can really help him and Doug Armstrong can be ruthless and he said you know what I'm gonna do this because it can make us stronger and also it could hurt the defending Western Conference champion and I just think that's the way he does business I think also I wonder about, you know, Alex Steen and Broberg, you know, Swede to Swede. Did Steen help sell Broberg on the idea of St. Louis? Like one of the things I've heard the Oilers believe is that, you know, the Blues sold Broberg on the fact that he will play left defense.

Right now left defense in Edmonton is a bit crowded. In St. Louis, they can commit to that a bit easier. I heard that was one of the parts of the conversation. I will say this. I did have some people who said to me they were a bit surprised Armstrong did it with Broberg because he isn't necessarily the prototypical, big, strong, powerful St. Louis Blues kind of defenseman although Broberg still has a frame that he can fill out but this is where we are and this is where we're going we've got seven days to figure this out now one of the things that Oilers fans are talking about here is a revenge offer sheet against Jake Neighbors or something like that.

Number one, I would bet that St. Louis has done a lot of the math on this. Yes, the cap is supposed to go up again next year by close to $5 million. But you've got a dry saddle extension coming and you're going to have a McDavid extension coming and a Bouchard extension coming. I think that St. Louis would be betting that Edmonton can't do this and this is one of the things they've talked about. I also heard my buddy Bob Stauffer was on radio in Edmonton the other night talking about potential trades and mentioning maybe for some of Calgary's defense, one of the things I have heard about the Flames

is that they have basically told all their guys nothing's coming this summer, that last year was too noisy, this year it's been a lot quieter, they like it that way, and they want to see how things are going to play out. So I wouldn't expect Calgary to be, I mean, look, anything can happen. You make them an offer, you can't refuse.

They have to consider it. But I have heard that Calgary's plan is we're enjoying our quiet summer and we'd like to keep it that way. The one other thing I'm really curious about this for Edmonton is how this will play out in their room. When I negotiate my contracts, I try to get the best deal I can. And I don't begrudge anyone else doing that. I don't always get the best deal I can, but I try. And I respect that, you know, Broberg and Holloway want to do that too. I just think it's going to be an interesting dynamic because right now you're selling dry sideline McDavid on taking a little bit less so the team can win. And then these offer sheets, you know, come in the middle of it. And it's very possible the players might just say,

that's business and that's the way it goes. But until you get in that room and you see it, nobody knows. Like the salary cap can be a very divisive thing because for every $1 you get, somebody else can't get $1. It's 50-50, right? So, you know, I think Edmonton has a really good locker room, a really mature locker room. But you always do wonder how these things play out. And I'm sure that will go into the Oilers' decision on how to make this all work. One of the things I just wanted to mention about the Oilers is everybody knows right now Stan Bowman is the general manager of the team hired a couple of weeks ago.

I heard one of the people who went really far in that process was dan mckinnon who's the assistant gm in new jersey i heard that he was one of the finalists for the job and you're always wondering about new names and new contenders out there uh that's a name i was very intrigued about. I heard he went pretty far down the process. Okay, let's go down to Toronto, and the captaincy is changing on Wednesday. John Tavares will present it to Austin Matthews, who will take over as the captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs have spun it very well that Tavares was part of the process.

And, you know, I totally understand why that's happening. I don't think that's ever easy. You know, I think John Tavares is very stoic, which I think really helps him in Toronto and is a very good thing for most people. I think he compartmentalizes very well. most people. I think he compartmentalizes very well. I know some people have felt that it would be better for him if he wasn't the captain anymore. He doesn't have to answer the questions. I don't know if I buy that. I don't think that's a thing that bothers him very much. I think he knows very well how to compartmentalize and do one thing here and do one thing there. I don't know if I buy that thinking.

I don't think it's easy. I don't think he'll dwell on it or anything like that. But I do think that anybody who is an elite level pro, it's not easy to have the captaincy kind of taken from you. it's not easy to have the captaincy kind of taken from you. I do believe that this was broached in the exit meetings or around the time of the exit meetings after the Maple Leafs lost to the Bruins. I think that there were a number of people who had it on their radar that this was going to happen

and that Matthews was going to be presented with the captaincy. I'd asked a couple of people about it. I can't remember exactly when, but a couple months ago. And, you know, at that time, it was kind of like no decisions made, premature, things like that. But I think this one had been brewing for quite some time, that they knew in the aftermath of the Boston series that it was going to be moving

from Tavares to Matthews. And one of the things I still think that's in play for Tavares is a potential extension. You're not going to hear anything about it on Wednesday. I don't think it's done. And even if it was done, I don't think they would overshadow Matthews. But it's been discussed. I think it will continue to be discussed and I don't think it's impossible that we see Tavares get extended as a Toronto Maple Leaf.

I think that is something that both sides are considering. But to me, the thing about this story that what it stands out, like I don't think it's going to change anything in the room. I don't think it's going to change Matthews at all. I don't think it's going to change Matthews at all. I don't think it's going to change Tavares at all. I think Matthews is a pretty level-headed guy. I heard his workouts this summer of Clayton Keller of Utah have been pretty intense. I hear he's been working pretty hard. And, you know, again, also Matthews, he's pretty stoic publicly, but I think he's really driven privately.

And, you know, I don't think this is going to phase him much, nor is it going to change him much. I think it's a bigger story externally than it is internally. And this is why I always think of Mike Milbury, who said the sea was overrated and we make too much of it. I think this is a case where it's a bigger outside than it is inside. But the one thing to me that really stands out about it is, you know, one of the people who I really respected covering was Chris King, who's now in the NHL's hockey operations. And Chris King was an assistant captain,

sort of an alternate captain with the Toronto Maple Leafs. And he gave up the letter when he was put on the fourth line. And I remember asking him about it. And he told me he gave it up because he felt if you're on the fourth line in the NHL, then you can't be an effective leader wearing a letter. He said you can still be a leader in how you approach the game and how you handle things, but you can't wear a letter. He said, you can still be a leader in how you approach the game and how you handle things, but you can't wear a letter. That was his feeling. I always remembered that. And I know he's not the only person who thinks that way. Now, by no means do I believe

that Tavares is going to be a fourth liner or anything like that. But the one thing I have wondered is if the Maple Leafs to conserve some wear and tear on him. I mean, he's not like he's old. He's about to turn 34, but he's had a lot of wear and tear. And we know he's not the fastest, although he's very competitive. I just wonder if this is, I don't know if admission is the right word, but a signal that maybe Tavares role is about to change, that maybe he's not necessarily going to be get the same kind of minutes, the same kind of role he's had in the past. While Matthew's role is growing, Riley's role continues to be massive. Nylander's responsibilities will only grow.

And I think the same with Marner, because I expect him to be massive. Nylander's responsibilities will only grow. And I think the same with Marner, because I expect him to be here. So that's the kind of thing I wonder about all of this, is if this is going to be a signal that Tavares' role is about to change a little bit. But again, I think all these people are pretty mature, and I think they will handle it properly. I don't think this is going to be a real problem in the Toronto room or anything like that. There was a trade in the NHL on Tuesday. Cody Glass was traded to Pittsburgh. Nashville needed cap room. They were tight after everything they did. Glass needed a fresh start and he will get it in Pittsburgh. I don't think that's the only bit of business

that the Predators are considering right now. I think the other one is Askarov. They're a young goalie that they have been for several weeks now. They've kind of said to teams, let us know what you think, what the market is for them, because I do think they're going to do something. I believe the one thing Askarov has indicated to both the Predators and it's kind of been floating around league-wide

is that he doesn't want to go to the American Hockey League. He wants to play in the NHL next year. So I think there are some teams who are kind of looking at it like if we want to acquire this guy, we better make sure we have space to play him because there's no point in acquiring him if he's going to be unhappy or he's going to be uncertain about his future. So I think that's one of the things that's being discussed right now. Tampa Bay reported on Tuesday that Jeff Vinnick has begun a multi-stage sale process. I put close to $2 billion. I had someone told me $1.8. I had someone who told me $1.9. So I figured close to $2 billion.

So nobody would tell me I put the wrong number. But that's kind of in the area that we're looking at here. Doug Ostrover is the name of the individual who I believe is the buyer. I do think in the short term, you will see no real changes. Vinik is going to keep operating control. There will be no changes in the day-to-day operations of the franchise.

Although I do think over time, even though Vinik is going to keep a significant ownership share, there is the chance that sometime in the future that I don't know if the structure will change in terms of ownership, but the Vinnick may end up taking less of a role somewhere down the road. We'll see. But that's kind of where it stands right now. You know, Vinnick is obviously hugely popular among Lightning fans. He did a great job resuscitating the team, the arena, the area around the arena.

You know, when you're a sports owner, what do people care about the most? That you win. All your developments downtown don't mean a lot if you don't win. And he won twice, and they went to another Stanley Cup final. They were a consistent winner. So it's tough for the Lightning fans, but I don't think his presence is going to go away anytime soon. Okay, and just some other things kind of looking at.

I had some Bruins fans asking me about Jeremy Swayman. Why didn't the Bruins take him to arbitration? Well, first of all, Swayman wouldn't do it because you'll remember last year he said he didn't like it. So he didn't want to go through that again. If the Bruins had taken Swayman to arbitration, one thing they knew what would happen is if the team takes the player to arbitration, the player gets to select the term. And Swayman could have selected a two-year term, which would have walked them right to unrestricted free agency. And the Bruins aren't dumb enough to fall into that trap.

They were not going to let that happen. So, look, to be honest, I'm not bugging too many people right now. The last I heard, they weren't close. I think this has been a bit of a challenging negotiation. But they've still got time and we'll see how this sorts out. I did have some teams tell me that they do think that there's some optimism that Colorado and Rantanen can get something done. You know, like you start to do your planning a year out. You know, they're starting to take dry sidle off their boards because they think that's going to get done in Edmonton. And I had some teams tell me they don't have any reason to believe right now

that ranting is going to be a hard one to get done either. So, you know, we'll see where that goes. This is the time we get to the point in the summer, too, where you start to see some players consider some ptos or some low salary deals one guy i've kind of been keeping an eye out for to see where he landed was tyson berry real tough year in nashville last year for berry wasn't a fit for him or for the team still unsigned i was a little surprised at that i thought that berry would be able to land somewhere by now, no problem,

especially with his ability to run a power play. I think one of the really tough things for him now is that a lot of these teams, they have their power play quarterbacks. Their second unit doesn't play too much. Maybe that's getting him squeezed a bit. But I know Barry's out there looking anxious to prove that last year was not a true indicator of where he is. And he's not looking for a ton of money, I don't believe, but just an opportunity to prove himself and play. And I'm looking forward to seeing where he ends up. And finally, I wanted to shout out Sam Rosen. The Rangers announced that this will be his final season.

Absolute legend in the broadcast world. And, you know, I just hope he has a great year. It's going to be very strange not hearing Sam Rosen on Rangers broadcasts, NFL broadcasts, anything basically. And, you know, I hope he gets to go out on top because he's not only a Hall of Fame broadcaster, he's a Hall of Fame person. You know, a lot of people who just started out would say hello to him. I was one of them.

And he was always just very friendly and made you feel very important. So just a quick one now, about 20, 25 minutes, and we'll see you back in a few weeks. Hope you're all having a great summer. Take good care. Speak soon.