Acquisitions Anonymous - #1 for business buying, selling and operating - Buying unused timeshares at $12mm / yr?!! - Acquisitions Anonymous 242

Episode Date: November 3, 2023

In this episode on Acquisitions Anonymous, Bill and Michael discuss a business for sale in the vacation property marketplace. They delve into the intricacies of the business model, analyzing its growth, market dynamics, and potential challenges, particularly in light of the COVID-19 impact on the travel industry. While the company demonstrates impressive financial performance, concerns arise about its scalability and long-term sustainability in a competitive landscape. Despite some reservations, the hosts agree that the business will likely attract significant interest from potential buyers.Today's deal comes from Axial.  Axial is a trusted deal-sourcing platform serving professional acquirers in the American lower middle market.Thanks to our sponsors!Acquisition Lab. Acquisition Lab and their team have been longtime supporters of the pod.Created by Walker Diebel, author of Buy Then Build: How to Outsmart the Startup Game, is an accelerator with a highly vetted cohort-based educational and support community for people serious about buying a business.Many of our listeners tune in each week to our deal reviews and want to get in on buying a business but don’t know where to start.Acquisition Lab exists to help people buy a business, navigate all the process complexities, and provide a trusted framework, tools, and resources to support you from search to close.If you are serious about buying a business, check out acquisitionlab.com or email the Lab's director, Chelsea Wood, at [e-mail]--------------Double Jump Media is your one-stop shop for creating engaging, high-quality videos.Double Jump is a boutique video production company with over a decade of experience creating professional, memorable videos for clients from around the globe and in various industries. All while helping those clients generate millions in sales through video content.So, whether you’re rebranding a business you recently purchased, launching a new product or service, or want to look awesome, Double Jump is down to clown.Visit www.doublejump.media to check out their portfolio and schedule your free consultation today.Subscribe to weekly our Newsletter and get curated deals in your inboxAdvertise with us by clicking here Do you love Acquanon and want to see our smiling faces? Subscribe to our Youtube channel. Do you enjoy our content? Rate our show! Follow us on Twitter @acquanon Learnings about small business acquisitions and operations. For inquiries or suggestions, email us at [e-mail]

Welcome to Acquisitions Anonymous, Internet's number one podcast about buying, selling, and investing in small businesses. Today's episode was really a ton of fun. We dug into something that we know absolutely nothing about. So just like every other episode, and we went in and really dug into a marketplace doing $12 million a year for people who want to buy and sell excess weeks at timeshare. So we dug into what's going on in the travel industry, how to think about marketplaces, is this a good business? And then lastly, we dug into how would we figure out how to make this business work if we were by it. So great episode. Me, Michael, Bill, and Heather, we have a ton of fun. We miss Mills today. But great episode nonetheless.

I hope you enjoy it. Here it is. This episode of Acquisitions Anonymous is sponsored by Acquisition Lab. Acquisition Lab and their team. They've been longtime supporters of the pod and they provide a really great service for people who are looking to acquire a business. So it's created by Walker Diable, who's become a friend, the author of, buy then build, how to outsmart the startup game. So Acquisition Lab is an accelerator with a highly vetted cohort-based educational and support community for people who are serious about buying a business.

So a lot of our listeners like you, you turn in every week to our deal reviews, you want to get in on buying a business. You know, you're on this podcast because you're trying to learn how to buy a business. But if you're not quite sure where to start, Acquisition Lab is a great place to start. So they exist to help people buy a business and to navigate all those complexities of the process everything you hear us talk about on the show. They provide a proven framework, tools and resources that support you all the way from search to close.

They do it. There's a whole bunch of educational material and support. So if you're serious about buying a business, check out AcquisitionLab.com, or you can actually email the program director Chelsea Wood directly. Her email is Chelsea at buy then build.com. All right, guys, I will tell you something,

recording podcasts, especially with no scripting and no editing, is much easier than recording YouTube videos. I was telling you how horrible it is. I've recorded the same video three times on YouTube, but every time it's ruined, and I have a feeling my third time might be ruined as well. So I'm excited to do a podcast with you guys

because there's no editing that goes on here. We just go. I want to see the outtakes. Did you know? Here are the three things I do to manage to see it. Fuck! Oh, man, there's everything. There's like, I'm recording some with my phone.

I'm recording in this. set up, like I drop stuff, like I dropped the camera. It's too dark. Yesterday, I recorded a bunch of stuff, then discovered the audio wasn't working. Today, I had two shots that I wanted to do, and I forgot to click record. Like, it's just, it's a comedy of errors. Like, the people that do YouTube videos, it's much harder than Twitter threats, much harder. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. That's why our whole rule here at Acquisitions Anonymous is one take. Everybody knows the rules. Take everybody. That's the rules. You get what we give you. You. You get what we give you. You take what we give you.

All right. So we have an Axial deal today. So Heather, you're going to read this one? I will read it. This is from Axial, the largest secondary marketplace for buyers, sellers, and renters of vacation properties with a 40% EBITDA margin. It is an online marketplace for buyer, sellers, and renters already said that. Resel and rental of unused timeshare weeks, DIY and full service options, 2.7 million users,

43% growth in paid membership since 2022, 500,000 site visits per month, robust mix of service offerings and price points, growth opportunities, increase uptake of online booking platform, grow brand recognition through aggressive marketing strategy, sustainability, recurring revenue through auto-renewing membership fees, fully remote workforce, and online-only business model,

competitive advantages, excellent brand reputation, lowest cost provider in the market. So revenue, we've got 21 and 22 here. Revenue has been 8.5 million in 21 and 12.4 in 2022 with that's a year over year growth rate of 46%. EBITDA in 21 was $3 million and it's $4.9 million in 22. EBITDA margin was 35% in 21 and is now 40% in 22. Sounds pretty interesting. What do you guys think? So this is a marketplace for people who are selling, it says vacation properties. Do we think this is like mostly time shares or is this like Airbnbs? Is this, I don't want to use a realtor?

What is going on here? My thesis with this is this is a platform where if you can't use your timeshare week, you go and you sell it on this platform to somebody else. That's what I'm reading it to this platform or this listing. Yep. That's what it sounds like to me too. I don't get the sense this is like sell your Airbnb necessarily, like entirely without a realtor sell in this platform. It's more self-fractional timeshare slots.

It's just the slots, which is interesting. So it's not saying, you know, just get rid of your time share with us because I think there are businesses that definitely focus on that. This is like, you know, you're only going to use one of your three weeks and you're going to sell the other two through here. you find people who are going to rent the property that way, which is interesting because I kind of feel like there's a lot of people who just want to get out from under the timeshares. Isn't that like the central theme of timeshares, right? Like everybody wants to not be in the timeshare anymore? I think that's right.

Yeah. Yeah. It's like a boat. It's like the best day is the two days of timeshare ownership or the day you buy it and the day you sell it or get out from under it. But they don't say that about pizza boats, Bill. That's true. That's true.

Pizza books are separate. I've never heard that. So I've been a good day. I googled by, you know, buy timeshare weeks, and this site, redweek.com, may be what we're looking at here, because they claimed in their header to be the world's largest secondary marketplace for buying timeshare weeks. So I think it may be these guys. But it looks like you can go through here and you can buy timeshare nights wherever. at Marietta Ruba Surf Club,

the Manhattan Club in New York, New York. I didn't know they had time shares in New York, in New York City, but I guess they have time shares everywhere. And here's one in Hawaii as well. Yeah, this high likelihood, because they say they've got an audience of $3 million on this website,

and the listing says the audience is 2.7 million users. High likelihood here on this Acquisitions Anonymous episode. Just so you know, your teaser, I know you try to anonymize it. We figure it out pretty quick most times. So is this a good business? I mean, it's got 40% EBITDA margins. It's growing 40% a year.

Is I having, like, it's a platform, is asset light. It's basically software. It's a marketplace. This on the face of it seems like a great business. What am I missing? It's got a lot of network effects to it. You know, the same thing that works for. eBay and Airbnb, like if you're going to pick the one place to list your property,

you're going to go where everybody else is listing it. And if you're a buyer, you're going to go to the same place as well. And the interesting thing about this is, I don't know if it's gotten to a size like some of the other, you know, marketplaces I just talked about, eBay or Airbnb, where they get so big that eventually they just own the whole market. You know, it looked like when I Googled this, there were a bunch of options of places you could go buy and sell a timeshare in terms of time share weeks. So I love the business, but it has me, like, there's some dynamic of like the marketplace aspect that I don't know if it's as great as your typical marketplace, if that makes sense. Just because you don't think it has this win or take

all dynamic, there's plenty of places to shop for and swap timeshare rentals. Yeah, I don't know how sticky it is. I mean, there's this dynamic where in these marketplaces, the bigger they get, the more powerful they get. But if you're in a pretty niche market and you're doing a relatively small thing, you don't get the same kind of like power of scale, right? Because like the, do you look at the network effect thing? I'm about to go like super nerdville. Like there's like this like power function of how valuable the network and each time you add a node, it like gets exponentially more valuable because of all the other connections. Anyway, like, but when you have a small network, it's pretty, you know, it's, it's not as easy to get those powers. So I'm worried that they don't have

that dominant position. But, I mean, at first glance, during 35% EBITA margin, and it's the type of business that I love, like, it's pretty good. So, so anyway, I'm on, I'm on the fence. What about COVID in 2020? You know, it's it. Yeah, good point, Heather. What about COVID in 2020? What is going on here? I mean, clearly it's got to be affected, right? Well, I guess I've looked at a few travel businesses, uh, lately that I, I, a lot of people are cautious about them because we know there's a big, you know, rebound, of post-COVID with travel. And the notion is that kind of where does that settle down? Maybe it doesn't matter as much, though, to this business because it's a two-sided marketplace.

And maybe as people travel less, the sellers are going to be on this platform more. And maybe they'll drop their price more. Maybe it doesn't matter. But anything travel related, I kind of wonder, you know, where is the trend for travel going overall and what kind of spending our consumers going to continue to do there. Yeah, I'm curious because they don't show 2019, 2020, et cetera, so you can't really isolate that COVID impact. That's a question I want to really ask this business direct

because you could see, to your point, Heather, maybe it's better, like more activity, more people have time shares, more people now want to get out from under them, and this business makes money coming and going. You know, as long as people are transacting, right? As long as there's a volume of time shares out there, this business does well.

But at the same time, if you hit a recession, you know, you could end up with a lot of supply of timeshare weeks and not a lot of demand. And then your market isn't clearing and you're not getting paid either. So I don't know off the top of my head how to peg this from a COVID point of view. So the bill to your question about how dominant is their position or not, you know, I Googled it and I pulled it up here. I googled rent timeshare weeks, and Red Week comes up, both number one, having paying the most for advertising. So they showed up first of the sponsored links, and then there's four sponsored links, and then Red Week, Red Week, which is the name of this company, showed up first in the organic

results. And then as I scroll down, so there's four sponsored, so they all look like they're trying to resell stuff, and then it looks like Red Week and Go-Cowla, and then a handful of others are all competing in this marketplace. It feels very much like a lot of the marketplaces that have emerged around remote work and stuff like that. There's like a half dozen that seem to be viable in all kinds of different sizes. So it's definitely not a winner-take-all market so far. Do you think, and then I got to start to think about kind of a long-term viability of this.

And you've got to think about it from two ways. If you're a marketplace is the thing that you're marketplacing going to still be around. Like, are timeshare still going to be a thing, probably? But then is someone going to come in and take this? And I see also, Michael, on your screen, Vakasa is bidding on this term. And you start to think about, you know, can Expedia, can Kayak, can Vakasa, can Airbnb, Verbo? Like, there's a lot of adjacent, very big, very well-capitalized competitors here that could essentially just decide to take your market. And that would scare me a little bit.

I really want to think through, let's say Airbnb wants to take your market, or let's say Vacasa or Expedia or one of these guys, they decide that Timeshares is their thing. It finds its way onto a strategic roadmap inside of Exped A HQ, and they want to come get you. What do you do? Can you do anything except get road killed? Maybe not. That would make me pretty nervous.

That's a strong network effect you've got to have because these other places have network effects too that they can beat you over the head with. So that would scare me. It's interesting. So I was curious why VBRL or Airbnb doesn't really list here. And according to the website for Redweek, what they're doing, they feel like there's this graphic here that I pulled up where it's like a timeshare kind of acts like a hotel, but it also acts like a vacation rental. So you get multiple bedrooms, living areas, kitchens, all that stuff per owner pricing from vacation rentals, but you get the aspects of a hotel that maybe you like, like concierge, restaurants, pools, and a front desk person that's there. So I guess maybe your mode, I mean, just spitballing

maybe your mode against Airbnb and VBRO is, or VRBO is they don't really want to be in that business of like dealing with unhappy people, you know, who are unhappy with the concierge or whatever. That's my only guess, Bill. Yeah, just there's something about the product that's different enough that, you know, it's a, is a different take. It's hard to shoehorn in. the Expedia interface alongside hotels and vacation rentals. That being said, I don't know. It would make me nervous. It would make me very nervous.

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There's something that just doesn't smell right about this listing as well. Like this is a pretty, you know, travels a huge space, this type of online media property. Like, why hasn't this been picked up by Red Media or, you know, any one of kind of the aggregators of different brands around this stuff? So, I don't know, there's just that feeling I have. I'm like, wait, why are we the lucky buyer to get to see this on Axial? which Axial's awesome, but like, why did this go that far? Right? There's tons of known buyers in this space, PE specializing and travel, for example,

red media, all those folks. So anyway, that's just something in my mind. I would want to understand why I wanted to have a conversation with the seller here. And I go back to your question, Bill, like, are timeshare is going to be around? I'll take the other side of that. Maybe not as much, you know, are people still buying new timeshares at the rate that they used to be? And are they successfully getting out from under them? Is there, you know, is there a diminishing supply of these excess timeshare weeks? I would, I guess my gut says I tend to think so.

I could be wrong. Yeah. So this is not something I'm super familiar with, but as we sit here in late 2023, right, there's a high, high chance of recession, or at least higher chance than there was a couple years ago. Who knows if it's going to happen? But I think that's a consideration for anybody making an investment right now is how does the thing I'm investing in fair in a recessionary high-interest rate environment. And I am sure there is history and data on how the timeshare industry does in recessions. Like you look at 2008, you know, places or times when property values are cratering, right? How do timeshares in those properties do? Probably not great either. But again, this is a marketplace. It kind of doesn't matter at what price the market clears just so long as it

clears for these guys. Good point. Good point. You are seeing, I think, to your point, Heather, a trend of people starting to spend more time back at hotels. I think so many people are having these bad experiences at Airbnbs and VBRBOs, that they're like, wait, you want me to do the dishes and like change the sheets? Like, why am I paying all this money for a cleaning fee? So I do think there's a swing back. And I just pulled out the data, actually, to your question about the timeshare sales. And 2022 was exactly the same as 2019.

It bounced basically the timeshare industry of sales volume cut in half during 2020 and then has fully recovered back through 2022. So it turns out, Bill, I don't know if you're aware of this, it turns out that COVID did not affect people's inability to avoid high-pressure sales tactics. They're back to buying timeshares again. I thought we all got smarter. We didn't, I guess. Okay.

No. It's so tempting, though. I don't know if you guys have ever been subject to one of these high pressure sales tactics. Like, the debate is so lucrative. It's like a free week at Disney. And all you have to do is sit in this one hour presentation. And everybody's like, oh, I can resist anything for one hour. And then half them walk out with timeshares at Disney. It's incredible. Yeah, I guess it's true. I just, I never sat in for one. That's the thing. I always knew that was the problem and I didn't want, I just don't like sitting there with a high pressure salesperson at all. I would just detest that. But it works and that's why they do it.

You know, one of the greatest things my parents said when I was a kid, they took us to a timeshare pitch probably back in the early 90s. I remember being a teenager. I was like, well, you're going to buy a time share dad? And he's like, no, no, you just need to see how this works. And like that way when you run into as adult, you don't fall into this trap. We went there. They served as breakfast.

and they worked my dad hard. I remember them just sitting there and he was like, we're ready to go now. Thank you for the breakfast. Thank you for the free night. Like, we're ready to go. No, no, sir. Like, one more thing.

I want to talk to you. Are you sure? Don't you love your family? I think we're sitting there. I'm like, yeah? Like, what does I have to do with the timeshare? So it was really a good thing my parents did. But, man, if you're interested in something fun,

there's like videos on YouTube about timeshare sales strategies. And like, they have it down to a science. Like, you walk through the casinos. in Vegas, and they know exactly who they should target, what the profiles are. Like, Bill, you and I walk past there together, they're not going to like even take a moment

to talk to us. They don't even look us in the face. They just let us walk right by. But the right profile walks by, like they know exactly who to grab. They have a whole spotting operation. I mean, they're sophisticated. Hunting operations,

what sounds like to me. No, it sounds creepy. It's also an interesting thing when you, like, I've had it to have a couple times where employees would leave and come back, they're like, I'm an investor now. And I'm like, oh, yeah, what happened? They're like, I went to vacation and I bought a timeshare and I'm like, where? They're like, Costa Rica. I'm like, geez, this is awful. So it's like awful in all regards, because in one regards, I'm like, man, like, I'm so sorry that this, you did this. But then secondarily, like,

questioning like, oh man, like, I hired this person for good judgment and they go to Coast Street, could do this? It's like, oh, man, a little worrisome. Yeah, not great. So, I mean, do you guys think this is going to trade? I mean, this is, it's $5 million of EBITDA, it's a marketplace, it's growing 46% year over year.

This is going to trade, right? Someone's going to buy this. Someone's going to buy it. Yes. 100%. For sure. Yeah. Yeah.

I think, I mean, it's got. to trade it eight to 12 times like 2022 easily maybe more so you think this is a 40 to 60 million dollar deal it seems like somebody's going to model it in my opinion somebody will model it as um a gross story and when things grow 40 percent year over year for a decade anything underwrites and i think private equity will do that and put money into growth build up the thing and try to create a a winner-take-all proposition. So, yeah, I would say it will trade 50 million plus. You can grow this for two years at 40%, and it makes all kind of sense.

Yeah. Yeah. Maybe I'm still low. If you can keep growing at 48%, see, I'm the skeptic. I don't think you can. I think that that's a post-COVID tailwind and that you don't continue to grow at that pace. I agree, Heather, and here's why I kind of sniff the, this has got to slow down. something's going on because it's only 12 million in sales, right?

If you run back the 40% growth, you know, from 12 million back towards zero, like this thing just either can't be that old or if it is old, it wasn't growing that fast the whole time, right? Which means the fast growth is probably a more recent phenomenon. And as we know in the recent rearview is COVID. And even at this point, you know, from the outside looking in here, we don't understand exactly how COVID impacted this business, but it's travel and I would bet money it did impact this business somehow, right?

And you got to unpack that. Yeah, I agree. Yeah. So any travel business that I've looked at lately has this kind of growth. Maybe the percentages are slightly different, but it's a lot of growth since 2020. And that's exactly what we do. We go back to 1819. We see where we were then. We almost kind of discount 20 and 21 in our,

minds and we try to think about what where does this normalize and it doesn't keep growing like that and you figure recession but on the other hand we've got that well that brings more sellers maybe to the to the marketplace here and maybe the sellers are even willing to drop their price so stuff still does clear to your point it's got it's a hard one to project but i do think it's definitely going to sell and probably for a big multiple michael let me ask you this our marketplace is good are subscale marketplaces or the type of

marketplaces that our listeners are probably looking at buying good businesses. I'm not talking about the Airbnb's of the

world, the scale things that have massive network effects. Are subscale marketplaces good businesses or no?

I believe strongly they are, especially if you can be a winner and a niche. I don't know. What do you think? You asked that

like, I'm like, well, should I reconsider it? Well, I mean, I'm wondering it's the type of thing, sub-scale marketplaces don't always exhibit the same winner-take-all dynamics as scaled marketplaces, right?

It seems to me, and I'm a dummy here, so tell me if I'm off, it seems to me that it is more about what percentage of your market have you captured. Like if it's a niche market and you have 90% of it, that is a scaled marketplace even at 5 million in EBITDA. Right? I mean, that's, you own it. There's no other network to be had. You have the whole network.

Everybody has to go to you to transact in that thing, unless your little niche of the world gets gobbled by one of the big marketplaces who have infinity money. That's the part that scares me. I agree with you, Bill. I agree with you. And I think let's look at our small business marketplaces as an example. As a, you know, there's a lot of them.

And nobody really has the scale, I don't think, even though bizby-sell's got a lot of stuff on there. I don't think, I think they're all kind of fighting for their little patch of the market. And they're vulnerable. You know, I think they're okay businesses at this point if they're not scaled. Yeah. I mean, I think also impacting them is the customer use like approach. So, for example, like what you're talking about with the B2B trying to sell and list and become,

like, you know, whenever the eBay for selling businesses, well, the problem is it's like really difficult to generate liquidity there because the items are so difficult to price and they're so heterogeneous in the case of small businesses. And then people don't transact that often, which is one of the problems with a lot of these, like, I want to be Uber for X businesses. Like, people are just not buying the thing that often. So it's hard to have liquidity in your market and create kind of that network effect

that really matters. So there's been a lot of study. I mean, to you guys' point about what makes marketplaces work and when they work and when they don't, how they end up fragmented, which it looks like what this marketplace market is currently. But in their defense, it looks like there's a winner and a number two in this market, which is pretty standard for distribution, right? You have Airbnb and VBRO. Maybe these guys are the number one. They claim to be number one. And number two is the koala one that I pulled up a few minutes ago.

So anyway, I think fundamentally they're great businesses. you can tell from the ebidob margin, I think there is definitely, to Heather's question, like, should you consider this a COVID bump business? Because I think to your point, Heather, you do the math and you see what happened with timeshare sales during post-COVID, yeah, they're back to 2019, and that's how you got 50% year-over-year growth,

but they did a 50% decrease for a year in 2021 to be able to have that privilege to growth. So it's flat, actually. It's flat. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In theory, I would be curious what the 2019 is here.

I bet you go back to the 2019 and it's about $12 million. Yeah, that's my guess too. So you think they're just basically right back to where they were? That's my very first question. What does 2019 look? As a betting man, I would bet it's exactly the same. So if that's the case, it's tough to imagine this trading for 10 times or 12 times. I think you're probably trading closer to 8 or 7.

Ibida. Time CBO. Yeah. All right. I don't have anything further on this one. Someone's going to buy it. Not going to be me, though. Let's role play a little bit.

Let's say you were curious about this business, Bill. What would be the first steps you would take? So I would do two things in parallel. One, I would obviously reach out to the broker, right, and try to get some more info. But the other thing I would do is begin immediately working my network to see if I could find anybody that owned a time share invested in time shares had their pulse on this industry i want to talk to brokers of timeshares i want to talk to anybody that could kind of get me into the timeshare industry so i can get a non-biased take on what's going on because the brokers everything broker gives you is totally

biased so you want to get you want to get somebody that has their pulse on the timeshare industry and figure out what's going on that would be the first thing i would do yeah and i would add a third one to that, I would do exactly those things. You know, there is a whole world of study and how people think and talk about and have analyzed these types of marketplaces and what makes a good one and how you determine the different dynamics. Like, those people are on Twitter. They write stuff on their blogs because they're VCs that invests in that kind of stuff.

So I would actually spend, in addition, I would go spend a couple weekends and just go read everything they've written, find those Twitter accounts, and then learn as much and go deep into understanding how online marketplaces work really well. I mean, if it seemed like I answered your question, like a dilatant bill, like I didn't really know other than, yeah, workplace are a good business and they're complicated. Like, that would be my next step is to appreciate that and go dig in and troll-I to understand this space. So I really get in and know the dynamics before I go spend $70 or $60 million on this business. I would spend a couple weekends before I do.

Probably a good plan. Well, you know, I'm a hard-working guy. Yeah. All right. So, wait, I'm hosting today, right? Yeah, I start talking about it. All right. anything else to say? Heather, you got anything else on your mind?

I don't. All right. I think this was a good one. Thanks again to Axiol for having some good stuff. Man, it's much better than looking at bars and grills and each... That is the truth. Awesome. All right, everybody. If you enjoy this, do us a favor. Take the video of this, print it out, and go take it to the nearest truck stop that you know of

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