Acquisitions Anonymous - #1 for business buying, selling and operating - Money counting machines sold on Amazon - Acquisitions Anonymous 252

Episode Date: December 8, 2023

In this episode, Michael and Heather start the show by discussing Twitter drama involving fake accounts and plagiarism. They also discuss the importance of verifying social proof on social media and share insights on an Amazon FBA business selling money-counting machines. Today's listing is found on Quietlight:Quiet Light is a business brokerage firm that helps entrepreneurs buy, value, and sell online businesses. Every Advisor on the team has built, bought, or sold their own online business and is committed to providing relentlessly honest advice and personalized recommendations to help owners succeed. Because they’re entrepreneurs themselves, they don’t only understand how businesses operate but also what it’s truly like to be in your shoes as an owner. With their proven, hands-on process, they’ve accompanied countless others along their buying and selling journeys.Thanks to our sponsors!CloudBookkeeping offers adaptable solutions to businesses that want to focus on growth with a “client service first” approach. They offer a full suite of accounting services, including sophisticated reporting, QuickBooks software solutions, and full-service payroll options.-----Double Jump Media is your one-stop shop for creating engaging, high-quality videos.Double Jump is a boutique video production company with over a decade of experience creating professional, memorable videos for clients from around the globe and in various industries. All while helping those clients generate millions in sales through video content.So, whether you’re rebranding a business you recently purchased, launching a new product or service, or want to look awesome, Double Jump is down to clown.Visit www.doublejump.media to check out their portfolio and schedule your free consultation today.Subscribe to weekly our Newsletter and get curated deals in your inboxAdvertise with us by clicking here Do you love Acquanon and want to see our smiling faces? Subscribe to our Youtube channel. Do you enjoy our content? Rate our show! Follow us on Twitter @acquanon Learnings about small business acquisitions and operations. For inquiries or suggestions, email us at [e-mail]

Acquisitions Anonymous, Internet's number one podcast about business buying and acquisitions and investing. I'm one of your co-host, Michael Girdley. Today's episode is super fun. Heather and I talked about an FBA business that we found on Quietlight that is selling money-counting machines. And for those of you don't know a money-counting machine as we talk about that, and then it only took us about 45 seconds to totally tie it all back to drug dealing. So the episode went exactly where you wanted it to go, and I think it was pretty great. So here it is. Hey, Michael here.

Want to talk to you about today's sponsor for the episode, which is cloudbookkeeping.com. So cloud bookkeeping is actually run by my neighbor, Charlie. So I've met him in person and can attest that he's a real human being and a good person. And what cloud bookkeeping does is offer a full suite of bookkeeping services all in the cloud for you around QuickBooks and other technologies that you're using as a small business owner. So if you're interested in getting the bookkeeping part of running a business off of your plate and focusing on running your business, Charlie and his team are one to call.

They can put together a bunch of other stuff in terms of helping you manage and grow your business besides just bookkeeping, sophisticated reporting, definitely helping you get your quickbooks online set up in the right way, and a number of things around payroll as well. So definitely know them and recommend them. If you want to find out more about cloud bookkeeping, you can go to their website at cloudbookkeeping.com, reach out to Charlie. I know many of you have and see if he can help you

make running your business easier and more fun by letting them help with a lot of the bookkeeping solutions. And when you call, mention this podcast. It would help us and help Charlie know that we're supporting him as well. So thanks a bunch. bookkeeping.com as the sponsor for today's episode. All right.

Well, do we want to talk about the Twitter drama? Yes, I do. Let's talk about it. So there was some big drama, definitely. Well,

I mean, it turns out there's this, there's this been like, how would you describe it? Like, there's a whole rush of Twitter accounts that are these fake guy accounts and they're anonymous.

And then it kind of came out through some of it that like one guy is like, or one guy or lady is behind a lot of them. And it turns out there's not actually any content there. He's just plagiarizing other people's stuff and rewording it and playing that game. And then he kind of got discovered because it turns out he plagiarized tweets from a guy who turned out to be a scammer a few years ago. And somebody was like, he plagiarized all these tweets from this guy who turned out to be a scammer. So everybody then accused him of being a scammer.

And so anyway, I think that's the core. Is he Jake or was he not? So Jake the scammer. I don't think he's Jake the scammer. That's my two cents. I think it's different guys. But I think he plagiarized some of Jake's tweets. Bad idea.

Bad idea to do any of it, but especially to pick a guy that was his scammer. Wow. I mean, I ended up muting the guy just because, like, I don't want low quality content. And that's just somebody who's just plagiarizing other stuff that they don't know anything about is definitely low quality content. And so I was just like, I'll just meet this guy.

So anyway, that's where my heads about it. Yeah. Though I guess I did put myself in the fray, which is like, you know, you're supposed to do that if your social media personality. You're supposed to figure out how to make the story about you. And so I put myself in the story and then I got out of the story very quickly. Well, I mean, I think you did the right thing when they're just trying to, if someone's saying, no, that's not me, then yeah, say who you really are or at least get somebody to vouch for you.

So I think that's smart. But people have to be careful. It's social media. and people are saying things that it's not accurate or you don't know who's really behind the account and you really do have to be careful what advice you take. And I think there's been a lot of consternation on Twitter lately about worrying about people taking everything a little too, you know, at face value. I find most people I don't think really do that.

I think most people are behaving as adults and they don't really do that. but I know there's a lot of worry that people do. Yeah, well, I think the lesson for everybody to make sure you understand is when you're on social media, it's easy to confuse the types of social proof that we've learned we can trust in the real world, and you get social media social proof confused with that. So, for example, if somebody is a member of your country club and they've been in there and they haven't been kicked out for a decade, like that's a pretty good sign that they're not a scumbag, right? Like, are they when you, you know, a friend of yours work with them for five years.

Like, those are pretty good piece of social proof. Ben, you can kind of start to trust those as data points to build out that somebody's a good person. But then you go on Twitter and you look up and you're like, okay, Mike Gurdley, me has 195,000 followers. Well, he must be a great guy. Well, absolutely not. There's a ton of scumbags who do that. And then you can also look at fake social proof as well where you're like, oh, this person must be really smart. All of their tweets get tons of likes and like retweets and all that kind of stuff.

But then you actually go look at it and they're all. bots. There are big time creators that everybody's like, this guy is the smartest guy ever. Then you go double click on some of the stuff because I'll look at it and I'll be like, this is really not smart. It's not unique. It's not remarkable. It's not smart. You go look at it. And I'm like, bot account, bought account, bought account, bought account. So there's all kinds of that going on. And so you have to really just make sure you don't confuse the stuff that works in the real world is social proof with stuff that is just totally manufactured to make you believe something. And ultimately a lot of these guys, like this guy, Jake or some of these scammers, like,

they only need to fool, like, one out of every thousand people because the internet's so big and they can make a ton, a ton of money. So you just got to be very careful. I mean, even me. Like, if somebody wants to do business from me or whatever, like, feel free to, like, call references and ask around. And, like, that's a good thing. I encourage you to do that.

And, yeah. Anyway, scary out there. For me, for me, that's where the conferences can be really helpful because there's a lot of people that I know that I've met in person that I know, know my real life network, and they're also on Twitter, or I'll get introduced to people through Twitter that I know somebody in real life. That makes me feel a lot more confident. It is a little scary just trying to work with somebody that you've only met through social media and you have no other context. Well, you know, and I syndicated a deal a couple years ago, I was kind of surprised how few people actually

They asked me for references, you know, like, call these people. They just like, and look, they didn't screw up. Like, I'm a trustworthy guy. I'm not going to, like, it's really all downside for me to, like, take people's money and, like, screw them over. Like, my friend calls that the HEB factor, which is HB is here in San Antonio. And he didn't want to ever do anybody wrong in a deal because he didn't want to have to see him in the aisle of HB or grocery store and, like, have to avoid them, right?

And so I think it's something very similar there. But some people don't treat social media. the way my friend treats H-EB. And I treat social media the way I treat HB. So I just, I don't want to have anybody say any bad things about me. And, but you got to be careful. Yeah, you do. And I, here I think it's a Gen X thing, too.

I think because we didn't have social media for so much of our lives, I do think we treat it a little differently than younger folks who have grown up with it. I think they're a little less cautious at times than we are. For those of you at home, it's only taken Heather and I, what, three minutes of this episode to go to Gen X Corner. So we're doing a great job. So I have a deal. I don't know, I don't know if you know this, but our whole podcast is about us talking about deals. So we have one. So let me pull this one up here. It comes from Quiet Light, which, you know, has entered the pantheon of some of our favorite brokerage and listing site. So I'll read this one if that works for you.

Yeah. And thank you, Heather, by away, for wanting to do this one, because I didn't even ask if it was okay. It's okay. It is okay. It's presumed. Well, the word SBA is very highlighted. So It gives you a chance to rant. So let me go to read this one and we'll talk about it. So this is a business that is business money counting machines. And it's listed, Heather, for you, I'm pointing at you, for those of you just listening on audio, it is SBA pre-qualified, 44% sellers discretionary earnings growth and $625,000, $625,000, sellers discretionary earnings.

So growing 44% earnings-wise with $625,000. Revenue is $1.8 million per year, income from it is $625,000. 125,000. So they said that's SDE. And the multiple that it's selling for is $3.4 million, or three point four times. Asking prices with $2.1 million plus inventory. Launched in 2020, this fulfillment by Amazon business, FBA sells money counting machines and counterfeit bill detectors to local businesses, government agencies, restaurants, financial services, event management companies, and nonprofit organizations. The top five skews generate 95% of revenue, in-stock rates were about 75% percent.

for the top five skews over the past 12 months, increasing the rate to 100% could lead to an additional $650,000 in revenue. Revenue is split with 85% coming from Amazon and 15% coming from Shopify. The year-over-year growth is an outstanding, oh, astounding 35% for revenue and 44% for SDE. The streamlined supply chain is extremely expensive

as the business was intentionally built with a remote first strategy. The owners have been built incredible returns process that resells 97% of returns, through Shopify site through a 3PL while not touching the inventory. Growth opportunities include launching new color variations, increase in-stock rate from 75% to 95% for all products, drive bulk orders from municipalities,

other government agencies, and cash-based businesses, bundling products expanding to Canada and the EU, with UK and Germany being the focus. The original founders and current owners did not have an electronics background and did not need any technical background to run the business. The team consists of two media buyers, one for Amazon PPC and one for Facebook and Google PBC and one customer service manager. The husband and wife team duo own another FBA brand that has grown five X in the last year

forcing their attention away from this brand. They spend five to ten hours per week on the business, which can be run anywhere in the world as the owners do not touch inventory. The business has been pre-qualified for SBA lending. Please see the business package for the term sheet. And then there's a thing here and the advisor appears to be Ryan Candy, who man, what a delightful look guy running is. So that's it. So that's the business. So Heather, just to recap, I think this is a business that sells on Amazon and a little bit on Shopify, money counting machines. So maybe we start with

what is a money counting machine. Because some of the younger folks, they may not know that. My kids don't know what a money counting machine. Yeah, I actually have a horror story of my own. One of my first jobs in a bank was counting cash in a cash vault where all the big deposits from the commercial, you know, gas stations, you name it, came in and we had to get all the cash counted through these machines. So you'd take these stacks of money or you know, you sort them $1, $5, $20, whatever, and you put them on these machines and they flip through them real quick and tells you how many you just counted. So you're not counting by hand.

And I did that job for not very long because I didn't like it very much. It was very high pressure. We had to count all the money and it had to be out the door in the armored car by 5 o'clock. I think so that it could be credited to the accounts that night. It was crazy. But that's what the accounting machines are. You know, I always think of them in a bank context, but obviously they're talking about all kinds of other businesses they sell to that count cash.

Honestly, what went through my head, though, is drug dealers. That's what I'm about to say. Because not a whole lot of businesses are, you know, stuck with cash anymore, right? And so the kinds of businesses that do use cash are usually either trying to hide from taxes or doing something else they shouldn't be doing. I always think about like the movie scenes where like the drug dealers have like a room full of people in their underwear, you know, like so they can't put the money in their clothes and stuff like that sitting there counting half naked. Just just one of those funny things. But yeah, I mean, I think you talk about something that just as you go into it, like America is quickly moving to a cashless society. And it became pretty stark to me when I go visit these other countries that are not there yet,

like Argentina is one, Japan is another one. I don't know if you know this, but the Japanese, like, for being so forward-thinking and all that kind of stuff, that's still very cash-driven. And they have all kind of rituals around that. It's one of the most fascinating things amongst all the fascinating things about Japan. But in America, like, and in Mexico and these other places, like cash is, like, declining. Like, it is, the government does not want to do cash. They want everything to be electronic.

some of it for pretty simple reasons. Cash is super expensive because you have to print it if you're the government, but also it's very hard to track and deal with cash, and the government wants to track where money's going to be able to enforce all the kinds of stuff they're doing. So I think that's one of the headwinds for this, is like cash is dying, like in America at least. That's exactly what I was thinking is that this is sort of a trailing edge kind of business. You know, the use of these machines is going to be steadily declining. and or you're going to get stuck with an increasing percentage of your customers are not great businesses or legitimate businesses because that's the reason that they're using cash.

I think that's a little bit interesting. They are carrying inventory for a business of this small. You know, they're talking about in-stock and the price here is plus inventory. First of all, plus inventory, you know, we never like that. You've got to sell whether it's inventory or receivables and cash. there should be some working capital left in the business, and it should be included in the price. It's not a price plus that just doesn't make any sense.

One day we should have a debate with all the brokers that lists deals this way about how confusing this ends up being for everybody. But they do have to carry inventory. So I think there's some risk there. And it sounds like there's at least there's more than one skew. I guess there's different colors and different things you can do with these machines. Not sure why you would care about what color they are. They list that as the number one growth opportunity, launching new color variations.

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the idea here that cash machines are dying. But here's the thing. What happens with stuff like that? And you see it with lots of technology that is mission critical. You see it with mainframes, which are the giant computers from the 60s. People don't understand companies like USAA and a lot of these big banks, they still run on all that stuff that they bought from IBM 70 years ago.

And it's running COBOL and all this kind of stuff from decades ago. People don't understand how. long the tail is on stuff like that. Just because once you get it working, like it makes no sense for you to go through and turn it out. And then a lot of times these old pieces of technology have network effects too. And my favorite of those is just fax machines. So what you see is fax machine usage is down 90% from the old days because email has killed it. But there's still all kinds of industries that all you can communicate with is a fax machine. Doctors offices, healthcare, government like faxes, like that's your option. And so what happens is you'll see this opportunity

where the market goes down 90%, but then it flatlines at 10%. And there's interesting niches you can find there. And the reason is because everybody does what you and I just did, Heather, which was write it off entirely. Oh, this is a dying industry. It's going to go to zero. But it doesn't. It goes to 10 percent and it just kind of hovers there for almost, in many situations, almost forever. And so I like that about this business. Yeah, I think that's the key, that's a very good point. I've actually seen people buy some businesses with that exact thesis. It's just hard because do you know where you are in that curve? You know, are you flat line already? Are you at the flat level or is it still going down? So I think that's the challenge, at least when I think of it as a lender, that lenders don't

like those because you want to see that it's flattened out for at least a while the industry before where you would feel that the cash flows would be stable. And I'm not sure that's a 3.4 multiple type industry like others that have, you know, opportunity to grow and are not at that stage. I mean, I think that's the same challenge I have with every single one of these brandless FBI businesses, right? And it's, I don't know if you've been watching Molson Hart,

who's, you know, a friend of the pod, been on before. And he's some people's friend, mine, other people don't like them. But like, he's documenting, like, how Amazon is, basically just like putting the squeeze on his FBA business, like a little bit by little bit and just like carving out more and more margin. And he at least is selling something that is like brand protected. Like brain flakes is a thing, right? And they have brand protection there.

But a lot of the other stuff, like somebody can copy it. Obviously just like somebody can copy Legos. But he's in a situation where he's just watching Amazon do that to him. And as I think about what's happening with his business and the potential of me paying three times SDE for this business, I'm like, well, like, I'm selling something totally generic. It's unbranded. Amazon's going to try to capture all the profit that they can and they're going to put me on subsistence wages over time. And 625,000 SDE is a lot more than subsistence wages for what these guys are doing. And so, man, just at a price, like, unless I have a reason to believe it's

going to continue generating $625,000 a year for the next number of years, like it's a really scary prospect, especially if you're going to try to do an SBA loan on this and guarantee that that money's going to come in, like, oh my God. And I'll add that it's just recently grown, or at least that's the inference they're making here. They're saying 44% recent growth. I assume that's recent. They don't really say, but it hasn't been 625 for very long, is sort of my guess.

So what's driving that? This doesn't feel like the kind of business that you're going to be growing. so that could just be, you know, a one-time big account that they picked up or a big sale that they were able to make. That has me a little bit puzzled. What could it be driving that? Yeah.

So I think there's some stuff to like about this, right? For sure, like, if I was to go buy a money counting machine tomorrow, I'm getting on Amazon, I'm going to look for it. So there's like, at least they're hunting where the fish are. So I like that about it. At least we're catching it on the upward growth trajectory. Like, that's something else to like. And then I think the other thing to like about it, at least it is doing as well as it is

with the founders apparently being totally interested in their other business much more than this. Like, it's not like somebody's in there already doing try hard work and the thing is doing, you know, doing okay. Like some, it's doing pretty darn good and somebody's not in there like really as an owner like grinding it out and trying to make it better. So I like that aspect of it as well. Yeah.

At SBA prequalify, I'll just say it. I say it every time. it doesn't mean anything. It's just marketing. Didn't go to SBA for sure. And it probably didn't even go to a credit officer at a bank. It's probably just a salesperson that offered to look at it with the broker and had no incentive to tell the broker, this one might be kind of tough. But, you know, the reality is for an SBA lender, this one might be kind of tough. Depends on who came along to buy it.

And how, you know, what structure? When somebody has a term sheet from a lender, which it sounds like they do, that is a term sheet that typically is, signed by a bank officer, who's the loan officer, right? And then it will say, this is contingent upon going through our underwriting credit committee. Yeah, right. Every letter from a bank is non-binding. So whether it's this pre-quall letter that they might give, this one is really tough. Before there's a buyer, we don't know who's buying. We really don't know the price. We don't know the structure, how much equity versus how much seller note. So those are just really, they don't mean anything because it totally depends on all of those things.

So it's just the lender that's giving this letter in this initial stage is really the salesperson for the bank. And there's a big separation of church and state inside banks between the sales side and the credit side. The credit side makes all the decisions. So the salesperson is the one giving out this prequel letter, but they're not the one. It's going to end up going over to the credit side and they're going to decide later on based on everything, you know, everything that they'll look at. Yeah. Man, I think this is just such a great testament to the people that got on the Amazon train

and have managed to ride it up. And you're seeing like originally there was all the people that got on some of these corners of it, power tools and all this stuff early, and then eventually they kind of flatten out and die over time. And then you see folks like this that have come in a bit later and found like a new niche. Because I think 10 years ago, neither you nor I was going to Amazon to buy a money-counting machine for our, you know, you know, I don't know if you guys know this, but Heather and I have been operating a casino on the side. This whole podcast thing is just a drug, it's just a front.

But for our for our home casino that you and I run, Heather, I think, you know, it's, it's interesting to see people get in front of those curves where people are like, oh, well, I'm going to go to Amazon to buy this thing. Yeah. We'd be kind of interesting why they picked this product or how they got into it. That probably is a pretty cool story somewhere. Yeah. So, I mean, is there any IP or anything here that these people have? It looks like, as I look through it, like they have a partnership with a Chinese factory somewhere. It gets branded with their thing on it. And then they put it on Amazon and then they just try to try to eat the middle of it. Is that basically what they do?

Yeah. And they've got five skews. So that's not a lot of variation in the product. Yeah. Yeah. That's kind of what I think it is. And, you know, Amazon FBA, you probably have to be pretty low margin to compete. Yeah. What's interesting to see the, the pay. parallel where, like, if you look at all these suppliers for like a Walmart or a Target, like they all have to deal with Walmart or a Target. And Walmart and a Target creates this buying power where they basically just like abuse all of these little sellers, right? And like cram them down on margin and cram them down on opportunity. And unless you're Procter and Gamble with a big brand to defend you, like you're in this other bucket of just like

small mom and pops that are just going to get hammered by the buyer. And if you're interested in the coolest economic term ever, it's called it's the opposite of a business. monopoly where you have one supplier of things. A monopsony is when you have only one buyer. And when you have that happen, like you have all the kinds of pricing power and all this kind of stuff to dictate whatever you want. And so the natural thing that all these big buyers target Walmart and now Amazon do is leverage their position as the only buyer of choice for all these vendors. And they basically just dictate turns to them and take away all the profits and capture it. And that's how they become really big businesses. And I just rub down a new word, monopsony.

Yes. I did not know that. Welcome to Nerd Wednesday. I like that one. That's a good one. Yeah. Yeah. It's a monopsony.

And then you can have doopsonies, which are like a two buyer. Yeah. But you see that same thing happen in many markets, right? There'll be one or two buyers. So Cargill is another one. What's another one where there's like just. Well, government contracting. I think of government contracting, you know, most of the government contracting businesses don't do

anything else. So they just have the federal government. Yeah. Or the agent. The federal government's another one. And that the federal government as a buyer becomes so pervasive that it makes you change everything about how your businesses are created, structured, run, and sold because of all their rules. And it's why so many companies struggle to both serve commercial clients and the government is because fundamentally your DNA has to be different to go after each one of them. And then that creates all kind of weird like things that have happened oddly in the market. So everybody, for example, has seen that Boeing, the company has kind of gone to crap, like over the past 10 years. What would happen was is Boeing was this commercial airliner company, but then they got

bought by the company that, and I forget which one bought them, but it took the name, but it was like, they were a big government contractor. And so because of that, like you have this massive clash of cultures where you have this like government contracting idea where it's like, okay, cost plus and like runovers, like whatever, our job is to just keep generals happy. And then you have this commercial thing. And so Boeing has basically just been getting murdered by Airbus, who by the way, is the other oneop, the other half of the monopoly for commercial airliners in the West. And like, they're getting murdered because basically all the bee key, the bean counters from the government side have come in and like use this government ethos, this government contractor ethos to try

to run, run Boeing. So that's what's called like the whole mess there. So anyway, that was just like a classic Gurdley rant. So I don't know if any of that was helpful. Well, it was. And I think people do look at government contracting businesses to buy. And they are their own world. And you really kind of have to have experience or come from the military or something. And they don't do well outside of government contracting.

So exactly what you said, I've seen that be very true. Yeah. So coming back to this deal, maybe we'll get off my Girdley rant because it's the day before Thanksgiving. But look, I think it's, some of the other stuff I like about this business, some of it's direct from Shopify. So there's some stuff that's not on Amazon. You have this thing that I talked about before with the owners being not that interested. You have a consolidated fewer number of skews. Like, there's some stuff there.

And I think you're probably still early in the money counting machine saga on FBI, which is good. But I'm worried about long term. Like, if you're buying from this Chinese factory, they're going to figure out how to list on Amazon at some point. and cut you out of the whole thing. And they may have already done it. Right. So those are just the things that over time, like I worry about the durability of this thing.

I like the business. It's just the price kind of scares me at this point. Yeah, lower price. And the right buyer. It could be a good business for that exact situation. Yeah, I think the right buyer is a really good thing. I think if I was to go in and bet this kind of money on success, like I really, really, really need to understand the FBA game

and be comfortable playing it and getting in there and want to do it. and maybe have experience doing that, I would be careful if I was just like random me going in there and trying to compete with this business. It just, it feels hard to go compete with the sharks there. You're swimming more sharks when you get into this business. Yeah, absolutely. I think most banks see it that way, too, by the way.

They don't like FBA, small FBA deals, unless the buyer has that kind of experience. And even then, they may like it. Yeah, or at least it's one where there's moats that aren't, am I a smart buyer, right? Like, I think at least if you take a smart kid out of Wharton or whatever and put him in a construction business, well, the moats there are pretty straightforward. You're not counting on him to compete against a whole world of people that understand FBI. You're just going to make sure that person really understands how the northwest corner of Atlanta does contracting and goes from there.

Well, this was a cool one. I mean, and hands off to, hats off to Quiet Light. Like, this is one of the better written teasers I've seen in a while. So kudos to them. you know, well done, well done quiet light. Cool. All right. Well, we'll see everybody next week. Thanks for being here and we'll have another deal for you when we come back. All right. Tell your friends and thanks for listening. Bye.