Acquisitions Anonymous - #1 for business buying, selling and operating - Printing money like crazy! A second ammendment related eCommerce business - Acquisitions Anonymous Episode 115

Episode Date: August 16, 2022

Michael Girdley (@Girdley) and Bill D’Alessandro (@BillDA), talk about a fascinating deal in Tampa, Florida where we enter the world of Firearms and Firearm-related eCommerce and find out whether this was a good or quite scary business. We also deep-dived into second amendment-style businesses that are just printing money and interesting to have in our radars.-----Thanks to our sponsors!* CloudBookkeeping offers adaptable solutions to businesses that want to focus on growth with a “client service first” approach. They offer a full suite of accounting services, including sophisticated reporting, QuickBooks software solutions, and full-service payroll options.-----Do you love Acquanon and want to see our smiling faces? Subscribe to our Youtube channel.Do you enjoy our content? Rate our show!Follow us on Twitter @acquanon Learnings about small business acquisitions and operations.-----Show Notes:(00:00) - Introduction(00:37) - Our sponsor is Cloudbookkeeping.com(02:04) - Deal financials: Florida firearm accessories and ammo alternatives company(04:20) - The perfect listing doesn’t exist… Does it?(04:52) - Why is this deal a razor’s edge in eCommerce?(06:44) - Is this a “moat-able” business?(07:48) - The seller owns the molds: Is that defensible?(09:00) - Why is this so profitable? Was the business affected during the COVID Bump?(11:44) - How do you avoid getting canceled when you have a 2nd amendment-related business?(14:10) - What’s SDE the trap in this industry?(16:00) - Why does Bill get scared of the compliance risks? Let’s talk about value chain risks in this business(18:57) - What are the best opportunities in this sector? Who should buy this?(19:53) - What is going on in this industry right now? What’s the outlook for the future?(21:55) - What are the good content affiliates for this business?(23:33) - What is the hidden fact about the operation?(24:07) - Check out the best business model ever(26:15) - Where do the margins come from in this business?-----Links:https://businessexits.com/listing/florida-firearm-accessories-and-ammo-alternatives-company/-----Additional episodes you might enjoy:#114 A Profitable Rafting Tour Company#113 Cherry Garcia Ice Cream Royalties#Subscribe to weekly our Newsletter and get curated deals in your inboxAdvertise with us by clicking here Do you love Acquanon and want to see our smiling faces? Subscribe to our Youtube channel. Do you enjoy our content? Rate our show! Follow us on Twitter @acquanon Learnings about small business acquisitions and operations. For inquiries or suggestions, email us at [e-mail]

Acquisitions Anonymous time. Today's deal was fascinating. We went into the world of firearm and firearm-related e-commerce. So me and Bill went deep. We found a deal that's an accessories seller around e-commerce, so Firearms, Bill's done a lot of study in this and knows it really well. And then we dug into a bunch of random, like, Second Amendment-style businesses that are just printing money. I mean, just amazing little businesses.

So stick around for this one. I think you really enjoy it. We had a ton of fun. Even Mirko said it was a banger. So stick around. A quick word from our sponsor, and then we'll get into the episode. Hey, Michael here. Want to talk to you about today's sponsor for the episode, which is cloudbookkeeping.com. So cloud bookkeeping is actually run by my neighbor, Charlie. So I've met him in person and can attest that he's a real human being and a good person. And what cloud bookkeeping does is offer a full suite of bookkeeping services all in the cloud for you. around QuickBooks and other technologies that you're using as a small business owner.

So if you're interested in getting the bookkeeping part of running a business off of your plate and focusing on running your business, Charlie and his team are one to call. They can put together a bunch of other stuff in terms of helping you manage and grow your business besides just bookkeeping, sophisticated reporting, definitely helping you get your QuickBooks online set up in the right way, and a number of things around payroll as well. So definitely know them and recommend them. If you want to find out more about Cloud Bookkeeping, you can go to their website at cloudbookkeeping.com, reach out to Charlie.

I know many of you have and see if he can help you running your business easier and more fun by letting them help with a lot of the bookkeeping solutions. And when you call, mention this podcast. it would help us and help Charlie know that we're supporting him as well. So thanks a bunch and cloudbookingbuking.com as the sponsor for today's episode. Bill, we got a banger of a deal today. We do. I'm excited for this one.

It's unique. All right. We determined I'm reading this one, the firearm accessories company. Go for it. All right, I'm on it. All right, I'll put up on the screen for those of you that are here with us on the YouTube. And so this one is from business exits.com. We found it.

And I think there's some interesting stuff to learn from this one. So we pulled it out to go through it in the podcast. So the title is Florida Firearm Accessories and Ammo Alternatives Company. The financial overview in the size of the business, they're asking $5 million for it. It generates $1.7 million in revenue and a little over a million dollars in net income. it is selling for a multiple, which they spell out for you, of four and a half times the actual income, which I guess that math works. So $5 million business, they're asking, they're asking $5 million for it. Revenue is $1.7 million and income is $1.1 million, they say,

and here's the description. For sale are two Tampa-based e-commerce businesses that sell firearm-related products. The first business offers accessories such as pistol grips and holsters. The second business sells less lethal ammunition alternatives such as nylon balls. There is a 70% profit margin on the products sold since they are manufacturers in China and the seller owns all the molds. I assume that owning all the molds thing is somewhat important. So we'll dig into that. He also has copyrights and trademarks on the products and both businesses have retail and wholesale revenue. So that's interesting.

The retail revenue is made through Amazon eBay. and other online stores, and revenue is increased from 2020 with $1.2 million in 2020 to $1.6 million in 2021. So 30%-ish growth year over year between 20 and 2021. While the owner is very involved in day-to-day operations, the new owner could hire an operations manager to make this business less hands-on. And then that is all they tell us for this thing that is located in Florida and sells gun-related stuff in Tampa. So what do you think? bill. So I just got to open by giving major props to this broker. This is the most concise, value dense description of a business I have ever seen. Perhaps it is like, like no more than

six or seven sentences and it tells you almost everything you need to know to pursue it or pass on it. So let's just sort of, you know, break it down. So it's, it's two businesses. I wonder if that means it's two LLCs or two brands, but it's being sold together. Pistol grips and holsters, and then less lethal ammunition alternatives like nylon balls. So the first thing that's worth saying is, like, this is a firearms-related business. And in e-commerce, that is a razor's edge because I'll be use policies of a lot of your kind of standard ways to go to market in e-com are very firearm allergic. So, for example, you cannot advertise anything firearm-related on Facebook, which means one of two things. Either one, Facebook is out for customer acquisition for this business, or if they are using Facebook,

you are one person or algorithm noticing away from zeroing that advertising customer acquisition channel. So the one thing I want to understand on any firearms-related business is, are they using platforms? They're not allowed to use. If so, there's a huge risk there that you could just one day walk into the bullet and you're never advertising on Facebook. book again and boom, your revenue gets cut by a third or something. That being said, if they know that and they've carved out other ways to advertise, these businesses can be really defensible because it leaves you with only the stuff that is hard, like YouTube content or Google SEO, right, Amazon SEO, like the stuff that like kind of has moats because it takes

a while. So if they're doing it right, it can be hard to kind of catch them. The same thing goes for For Amazon, though, they say revenue is made through Amazon, eBay, and other online stores, I would be real sure that this product was actually allowed to be sold on Amazon. Not, oh, other people are selling it on Amazon, but actually allowed. I would ask that they seek a written approval from Amazon stating that these products were in terms of service compliant. So that's the first thing. Yep. So I'd love to dig into, I mean, some of the economics here.

So this is a business that sells physical products. It did $1.7 million in revenue, and it does them at 70% profit margin. I mean, I know some businesses that do 70% profit margin, but they have different dynamics than this. Like, it seems so rare that you run into an e-commerce business that is running at that kind of margin, just because other people would come in and undercut you and still have huge margins. So, I mean, what do you think is going on with this? I think this is, again, huge props to the broker. The last sentence tells you everything. While the owner is very involved in day-to-day operations, so like pretty much the whole gross

margin is dropping straight to the bottom line. Like there is no overhead. I mean, they've got, you know, their gross margins are 65%. I'm sorry, their net margins are 65% and their profit margins, their gross margins are 70%. So they've got 5% of revenue. below the gross margin line, which tells you, like, this is just his business. You know, I will say, so Michael, you expressed some concerns about defensibility of a 70% gross margin. The key phrase here is owns all the molds. So one, the key is that means no one else can use the molds, assuming your Chinese manufacturer is on the up and up. A lot of times in China, the big risk, if you don't own your molds, is that someone else comes to your manufacturer

offers to place an order, and your manufacturer, I mean, especially in Chinese culture, like they do not care. They will take the order. There is no liability. And before you know it, like that next, the competitor's got the exact same product made in your mold. Right. So owning the mold is really important only if your manufacturer actually respects the fact that you own the molds and doesn't let anyone else use them. So it's possible this is a technically complicated from a mold perspective product and that it's actually defensible. That being said, you know, mold cost can be between $10,000 and $50,000, you know, depending on the thing.

So like, that's your mode. It's not nothing, but it's not huge either. I love one of the tricks of just taking the, before you sign the NDA, you take the, you take the nature of the business and you kind of Google what they tell you and then see what shows up. So I googled Tampa Non-lethal Ammo e-commerce. and there's a couple different little stores that came up. Ammo Ready is one, but this one actually looks like Thomas Net, maybe, or maybe this is the listing broker, but yeah, I'm always curious see if we can find him like we did with the mask in the firefighter mask we did previously.

So I'm curious, here is ammunition from global military products.com and they have non-lethal products and they are located in, they are located here in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, Tampa. Man. Yeah. Hey, honey, guess what I did today? I bought an ammunition website. Yeah. Yeah. Now, you know, something important to mention, too, about this industry is it had a massive COVID bump. Right. Like with all the riots in 2020, like do the general fear around the pandemic, all that stuff. Like firearm sales are through the roof. So anything in this industry, you got to be aware is coming off of a huge COVID bump. Yeah.

So this, you know, they grew very nicely from 2020 to 2021. It would be very interested to see how their 2022 is tracking. You know, the other side of that, though, is like, now you've got a much larger installed base of firearm owners, right? That might want to buy less than lethal ammunition. You know, maybe these people weren't the hardcore gun people. Maybe now they own a firearm. They don't want to kill anybody. Maybe they want a nylon bullet.

Maybe they want to practice with Nilein bullets because I don't know the local regulations in all the places. So you could argue that a bunch of people got guns and my TAM increased, you know, for this during the pandemic. Have you run across this business? I pulled up the website for it. Ammo Ready? I have seen this. This is an interesting business. Yeah. It's like a Shopify plus a fulfillment.

Well, I guess now Shopify does fulfillment too. But it's e-commerce. It's an e-commerce Shopify and fulfill. specifically for Second Amendment style businesses. So it has processing, websites, point of sale, all that kind of stuff. Will they make sure that you can't get canceled? Well, I guess what you talked about, Bill, you have to worry about that with a business like this. And we actually went through that 15 years ago.

My wife and I opened up a business selling sparklers online, and you're exactly right. Like Facebook was like, nope, no, no, fireworks. And we're like, no, they're not, they're different. This is different. They sell them in convenience stores and grocery stores. And so it's really interesting that these guys have tried to go into that. The thing I would click in the most when I would look at a platform like this is the Second Amendment merchant processing. You have to worry about Visa, MasterCard, Amex, deciding to do to you what they did to Onlyfans.

So it's super interesting. And another threat, I think, to our original business, you know, if you're firearm-related, you've got to worry. You got to worry about that threat. Yeah, you just have this work. Like any piece of your critical business infrastructure could just fire you as a customer, like at any time, right, which is a little scary. So you've got to be really, but that's why these businesses like AM already exist because Shopify has probably fired firearms businesses as customers.

And so there's a huge demand. In the same way, there's a massive business called gunbroker.com, which is basically eBay for guns because eBay doesn't let you do guns. So there's a whole like, shadow value chain that has popped up in Second Amendment style businesses that is extremely lucrative and way work like Gunbroker is a way worse eBay, but eBay has ceded this market. And I happen to know this is a giant business, by the way. A giant.

Look at all these ads they have. These sponsored ads they have here. I mean, when you see that on a, when you see that on a peer-to-peer platform, you're like, oh, these guys are printing money because it's 100%. you know, net margin here on this stuff when you're selling it. This business is so big, by the way,

it could be public. It is huge, huge. But eBay doesn't want to touch it. Yeah. It was really interesting. So kind of back to the specific business here, there's a couple other things,

you know, that are worth mentioning. This business has retail and wholesale revenue, which I think is good, you know, because that's kind of direct, almost direct consumer, right? Direct to a retail store.

You can't be kind of canceled out. There's no platform between you and your customers for that business, which is great. And then the last thing, you know, the owner being very involved in day-to-day operations, that means that this could be a great add-on for an existing e-commerce platform where, you know, you're going to have to replace him. So like if you are just a guy and you want to buy this business, you're buying a job. Remember, there's 5% of it. between their gross margin and their net margin.

There's no other people. There's no other people. Like, that's just enough for software, barely. So it's him. It's a one-man show. So you buy this, you're a one-man show. Maybe that's okay with you. But you're going to pay a multiple SDE.

And this is, I think, a pure illustration of the trap of the SDE multiple here, right? Because you're going to pay 4.5 times SDE. But if you've got to put in $150,000 general manager on day one, your effective multiple is north of five, right? So if you've got to have either do it yourself to maintain this as a true multiple, but that's not really fair because you've got to take money out of business or buy it on to an existing platform if you want to actually realize the true multiple. Yeah.

I do think on the positive side, this meets all the characteristics for kind of the Twitter threads you're seeing now about how I bought a $5 million business with nothing down. like it's under the SBA 7A limit. I understand, and I've never done an SBA loan, so that's what it is. But they, you know, the e-commerce businesses will get done by SBA. I don't think this is a category that the SBA prohibits. And you have a situation here likely where the owner has been printing cash for so long. They're willing to sell or finance a portion of it on standby.

So if you could get the seller to put up, say, a million of the five on standby, you're able to get a seller note or able to get an SBA loan for some big portion of the rest. You could probably get yourself a million dollars worth of income here for $100,000 or $200,000 invested on your behalf. And again, this is all, I've never done this, but this is what the Twitter thread say you can do. But something like this could be pretty exciting if you're willing to assume $5 million and personally guaranteed term debt to the U.S. government. Yep. You're, you're just going to have that the thing that scares me with a PG loan for business like this is just the compliance risk. Like Amazon, like the wind changes, right? In November, I guess it probably looks like it's going even redder in November, perhaps. But like the wind, the wind changes in an election. And like Amazon drops you, like now you're PG'd and on the hook. There's just, there's so many these value chain compliance political risks in this that sign up for a PG loan on a firearms business just scares it. I mean.

So you almost have to do, this is almost right then for somebody doing a bolt on who could sustain a component of their business just disappearing. I mean, that's kind of it. I mean, I'm in some businesses where they could disappear tomorrow with regulatory changes. They're very low likelihood. But, yeah, there are ones where my cost basis is much lower than four and a half times income. And I'm also stuck with them.

I can't get rid of them. So this is a big, like, I mean, you're talking about PGing, you know, $4 million. That is a lot. This is not like $500,000. Like, this is a big loan. So, I mean, yeah, it just makes me nervous. So this is, I think, ripe, a couple things. One, this has every aspect characteristic of a business that would trade for four, four and

half times if we're not in firearms. Right. So I think, you know, a valuation discount here is appropriate. it. Everything else about this smells like four to four and a half times, the great margins, you know, simple supply chain, all that stuff. But I think a category specific discount is appropriate. The other thing is, is we are squarely about an SBA loan that's personally guaranteed. This, it's not big enough for kind of non-recourse bank financing. This is a seller finance deal. Like, has it written all over it. You know, a non-recourse, non-personally guaranteed seller note

would be what I pursue for this one. Really interesting. So let's say you were to go set something like that up. Let's say you go raise or come up with a million dollars in equity to do a business like this. And then you ask the seller to go in and finance $4 million on top of that. And you make some of that contingent upon, you know, the, you make that an earn out, right? You make it so that you have to have a situation where Amazon doesn't cancel you, the sale of these products doesn't become illegal and go bump stock on you.

And then so you pay them off potentially with cash flow over the coming years. You know, unfortunately, you have to have a seller willing to do that. 80% seller financed is, it turns out most people don't want that bill. They want the cash on front. They don't like it. I mean, I would even structure it a little bit more like an earn out. Like, you know, seller note is $4 million and you're going to get 50% of you to die until you get back $4 million or five years has gone by, whichever happens first.

Something like that. This also feels, I love that. This also feels like a situation in which, you know, there's this category of people for whom the Second Amendment is almost religious. Like, if this is something that you're, if that's your crusade, if that's your cause, maybe crusades are wrong way, but if that's your cause and you have that level of passion about it, I think this is potentially something right for those people. For me, I own no guns and I'm not interested in it.

But for the right person, if you're passionate, this is something you want to go to China and deal with your factory and optimize how many grams of nylon you have and your non-lethal ammunition, like it could be a lot of fun. Let me say something else about the online firearms industry. I looked into this at one point because I thought it was a really interesting investment opportunity. There is kind of the eBay versus gunbroker thing. eBay is like, you know, kind of they're too uppity in a way to pursue firearms. So they're just like, we're not going to do that.

So like all of like the coastal elite, you know, went to Harvard, you know, professional internet markers will not touch this crap with a 10 foot pole. So you're essentially playing, no offense to my friends who own these businesses, you're playing at a lower level, right? It is less competitive. So if you can be really good, you can be one of the best. you can really outcompete people because the very best folks are selling other things, right, because of their own moral convictions, which is a big opportunity.

I mentioned, though, that, you know, the thing that is a little bit scary is like all that value chain risk, where I actually came down on it was I think the best opportunities in this sector are around being affiliate businesses to and sending customers, like creating content, you know, not selling anything. you have no credit card processing, you have no inventory risk, you have no platform risk, you know, just ranking content, like what are the best nylon bullets? What is the best non-leathly ammunition? What are the best holsters for this model, this model, this model of gun?

And then referring that traffic to the people that actually take all the regulatory risk, and you skim off your 20% CPA, and it's pretty much straight margin, and you kind of sidestep all of this value chain risk. So that was where I came down if I was going to add it for about a year. Well, if this guy, a guy, I assume it's a man. Usually women don't start businesses like this. He, she, they, if this person running this is at 70% profit margin, making this much money, you know, at that kind of gross margin, any incremental dollar to them is free profit.

So they're going to pay up. I mean, if this is consistent with the other kind of profit margins in this market, yeah, it's ripe for affiliate level stuff. Do you run the danger of people getting involved? in kind of that affiliate side being ones that are more competitive. Back to your idea that there's not a lot of talent fighting in this market. So I looked at it and yes, but there are like two or three really good content affiliates in this whole space.

Like I actually mapped it all out. There is room for a ton more, ton more. Super if you are, just as an example of like one guy that's really good is called Pue PooTactical.com. just like freaking nails it though i mean their content is amazing like they've got people going out to ranges 4k video totally SEO optimized titles but they don't sell anything it's just a fill it like these guys freaking nail it but they are on like 10% of the keywords they could be on wow seven best 22 caliber rifles bigger isn't always better yeah you see the titles

right seven best and best you know these are all keyword optimized like they know what they're doing here yeah and it's just purely an affiliate business i love the name i love the name because it's so cool they have this like very masculine like uh this very masculine kind of design for the whole thing and it's keyword optimized and then the name of it is pew pew tactical like just so great just so great They sell merch? Look at this. They have a merch store. This is a great business.

I freaking love this business. This guy kills it. He does it exactly right. Notice he's selling nothing. He's selling belts, shirts with his logo on it, like nothing. Now holsters, like no, nothing actually firearm related. Just T-shirts. It's so fascinating.

I've pulled up this picture and I'm just stunned at the pop-up and the models that they have for the pop-up, tattoos and like hair product and tight, tight t-shirts. Check out what he's done, though. What you didn't even realize, look at the URL in your menu bar. He's outsourced this. You're at a different company's website right now. That's amazing. So he's totally hands off.

He's not touching the inventory. He's just licensed his name and he's sending traffic. He's an affiliate to his own merch. That's great. Oh, man. So so far today. I love this website. So far today in this episode, we decided that this online e-commerce ammo alternatives company

is printing money like crazy, but way too risky to invest in for most normal humans, that there is a Shopify for guns that looks like in itself also a very risky business, but could be printing money. Then we found that gunbroker.com, the eBay for Guns, is also a money canon. and then PooPoo Tactical is perhaps the best business we've ever looked at in the history of businesses. Better or worse than the wine rating company? Would you rather own this or the wine rating company? I'd rather on this.

Whoa. Yep. Yep. I mean, I just, because the wine rating company is replicable. This is not replicable unless you are willing to send people to gun ranges and film it. you know, like, there's just a much lower set of people. Like the buried entry on this is major. Because you've got to be digital savvy and firearm savvy.

And that is a Venn diagram that does not have a huge overlap. And there is no way. There's no way I would, this would be happening at the Gertley household. It's like not. There's, there's the Venn diagram reduces where it's like, nope, I want to stay. I want to stay in married. You're on the digitally savvy side of the band. I mean, I can make this business happen, but you're not going to see me at a gun range.

So what's interesting is none of these people you see are the gun ranges or the guy who owns it. Interesting. I mean, I bet you could. Boys. Yeah, I bet there are nerds, gun nerds who are willing to go out and do this and do all the research. And then you hire somebody off of Upwork and you write the thing up. Look at this. They have the best AK-W.

47 magazines. And then in the picture, they took all the magazines and they spelled out the word P-E-W. For P-P-P-P-P-P-Tactical. Yeah. Man, it's, you know, so much money floating around in this country in arms. Just unbelievable. Unbelievable.

That's right. Directly and then indirectly. I mean, that's the thing that always I always look at like you go into a gun shop or whatever. And you look at this thing that is made out of about $12 worth of steel. It's made off of technology from 150 years ago that hasn't involved since, you know, since, let's say, the Korean War. And it's $900 at a gun shop. And I understand they have a lot of costs as you, but it's like, oh, my God, like,

just unreal amounts of money flowing around in these purchases, just unreal. So you want to know some more info on the margin structure of these things? Sure. So, again, I actually canvassed this industry. so I learned a ton, talked to a lot of people in it. The margin, if you're a gun store and you're a, you know, there are online ones too, and they deal with all the compliance around shipping, the margins on the actual firearms are almost nothing.

I mean, I'm talking like you sell a $900 firearm, you make $10. Like, it's just like the gas at the gas station. The whole business is the chips and the soda and everything else, the snacks. In the case of firearms, it's the biggest thing are the optics, the scope on, on top of the firearm, like massive 50% margins for the retailer. All that like the accessories, that's where all the margin is. The actual firearms themselves are a compliance nightmare to chip and the margins are a razor thin.

That being said, on the manufacturing firearm side, also a terrible business because, A, it's hilariously cyclical. If you pull up like firearm sales, it's like, you know, huge spikes when Democrats are in office, Democrats are the best gun salesmen in the world. Huge, you know, crater when the Republicans are in office. It's like private equity has bought and gone bankrupt in like all the major firearm manufacturers multiple times. Because, you know, it's a capital intensive manufacturing business. So you like scale up and then your demand evaporates and boom, you're bankrupt or you use debt to buy the business. But the reason their margins aren't insane is the liability insurance.

Just huge chunks of, you know, it's not. not the product cost that gets you. It's the liability insurance. It's so interesting this pattern. I think we saw it in the pool business as well to where I was really surprised to learn. At first, I would be like, oh, if you're going to be in the pool business, you want to be in the pool of maintenance business. Because it's recurring revenue, like you get it every month. Isn't that great?

And everybody's like, no, no, no, you want to be in the construction business for pools. Like, and here's why, right? Like, the problem with, you know, anyway, the long story short, the problem of the pool of maintenance business is it's very fungible. Like, you're just totally at the mercy of some homeowner deciding to switch to another pool maintenance person and your margins get super compressed. And you're dealing with a pain in the ass of all these people and customer acquisition is tough and all that kind of stuff. The reason the pool construction business is so good is most markets only support two or three big ones and everybody else just picks up the scraps. And it's like, oh, like it's same thing here. Like you would think the gun manufacturers, you know, at the origin who are taking $10 worth of steel and turning into an $800 gun would be printing money.

And it turns out it's the guy giving you the little leather holster. He's making all the money. Yep. The gun manufacturers, all their profit, by the way, is in the government contracts. Like, that's the ballgame. Totally. Totally. Well, because they got to have guns at the government.

Otherwise, the Army doesn't shoot. No pew, pew there. All right. Well, let's wrap this one up. Yeah. So definitely support our sponsors. They're paying us money to produce these high-quality episodes of us producing Bangor episodes.

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Love it. There you go. We're everybody's best affiliate. That's right. All right. We'll click stop and we'll see y'all soon.