Afford Anything - Q&A: Remember When Money Advice Came From Just One Book at the Library?

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

#607: George is a worried baby boomer, wondering if today’s generation is drowning in the noise of today’s financial landscape. How does one find a balance between information and overload? Heath...er is stunned by the notion that renting could make more financial sense than buying. Where she’s from, the numbers seem to always swing in favor of owning. What’s she missing? Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these questions in today’s episode. Enjoy! P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode607 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Joe, you and I are both members of the financial media, but we kind of do our own thing, of course. We're not big mainstream media. No, no, no, no. It's financial Luminati. And we coordinate everything ahead of time to affect the decisions that are made in the market. That's right. You can't tell them about the secret cabal. Right.
Starting point is 00:00:18 We have the handshake. Absolutely. And the emblem that we wear, we have the matching tattoos. Right. On my butt. Where we can scan it with black light. every time you enter the secret layer. Oh, that got weird in a hurry.
Starting point is 00:00:34 We're going to be talking about the financial media today in response to a caller who deserves his own show. I'm just going to say that we're just going to dive right in. Welcome to the Afford Anything Podcast, the show that understands you can afford anything but not everything. We cover five pillars, financial psychology, increasing your income, investing, real estate, and entrepreneurship. It's double-eye fire.
Starting point is 00:00:54 I'm your host, Paula Pant. I trained in economic reporting at Columbia. every other episode I answer questions from you, and I do so with my buddy, the former financial planner, Joe Sal C-Hi. What's up, Joe? We're going to talk here in a second about where I live, Texarkana, Texas. You've been here, Paula. I love it. I've been there twice.
Starting point is 00:01:12 Well, we have all this road construction on the freeway and this truck just turned over that was full of Vicks vapor rub. And the good news is there was no congestion for an hour. Come on. Steve, that deserves better than a Wampwop. Let's go to our first question, which comes from a guy who totally deserves his own show, and I bet he doesn't tell corny jokes. That comes from George. Howdy, Paula, and Joe.
Starting point is 00:01:40 This is George, from a little Metroplex just west of Texarkana. I know much of your audience is solidly in the Gen X and millennial generations, but as a member of the Baby Boomer cohort, I wanted to chime in. So many folks here are interested in financial independence, retire early, whether it's fat fire, lean fire, coast fire, or rista fire, or even double eye fire. I offer you a new alternative. Fire. For me, that stands for financial abundance, happily retired. F-A-H-R. Farr. I pulled the rip cord a year ago, retiring with the misses at the tender age of 60. It's not that tender, to be honest. Our philosophy was simple.
Starting point is 00:02:29 Earn a good living, strive for excellence in our jobs, intentionally invest 25% of our gross income, yet live an abundant life centered around family. Anyway, wanted to share them bona fides as I formulate my questions. What is the role of financial media in informing but not overwhelming its consumers? When I grew up, we didn't have much access to the world of personal finance and investing. We had Money Magazine, maybe a finance book from the local library. Not about it. There were no experts to listen to.
Starting point is 00:03:05 As leaders in the financial media space, what do you say to young financial enthusiasts in their 20s or 30s or 40s who fear that if they miss a single podcast or TikTok video, they'll remain hopelessly behind? Should they read all the sacred texts? You know, simple path to wealth. Millionaire next door, Mr. Money Mustache's famous blog post, maybe even stacked? Or should they practice frugality? Or take on five side hustles or drink the real estate Kool-Aid? Or should they simply die with zero, living their best van life and quote unquote retiring to live in Portugal or Bali at age 26 with their bucket of FU money? then later, of course, creating their own podcast.
Starting point is 00:03:58 I'm just afraid the people will continue to chase the latest fad and believe wholeheartedly in the holy trinity of financial buzzwords, hacking and leverage and arbitrage, all the while failing to understand that their perspectives will likely change when children enter their family, or a spouse decides to leave, or a job goes sideways, or a serious illness strikes unexpectedly. Well, them as my observations would appreciate your thoughts on the role of financial media on this subject.
Starting point is 00:04:31 Thank you. Can we just start off with, George, that the word stacked should not have a question mark at the end. Even stacked? And by that, George, I think you mean start with stacked. I think that's what he means. Start with page 13 of that book. That's the page I'm featured on. That's a fantastic question, Paula.
Starting point is 00:04:55 And George, you need to come to TXK and let's go to Namans, have some barbecue because George sounds like my kind of guy. Matt, George, you please start your own podcast. When you said maybe even start their own podcast, the world needs your podcast. I become frustrated with, I think, some of the things that George is talking about. But, by the way, George, I don't get frustrated about you talking about you. talking about him. I love George talking about it. I could listen to George all day. Yeah. And I was like 100 percent because there are people I know, I call them broke professors. And broke professors are people that have listened to all the shows. They know all the buzzwords. They've read all
Starting point is 00:05:38 the stuff and they still aren't doing anything. So they're not literal professors. They're the professor archetype. Right. All theory, no practice. Yes. By broke professor, I mean, you know everything and you haven't done any of it. It isn't about what you know. It's actually about taking action. So I think for me, the right amount of financial media is I listen to enough that gives me the idea to help me go take the next action. And I take the next action. And then I use it to fill my head with surround sound that's much better than the things that we've normalized, people having a lot of debt, people be in and over their head, people not thinking about better income strategies or negotiation skills. We've normalized all that. And creating this new normal, I think,
Starting point is 00:06:25 is important while you're taking action. Yeah. So here's the fundamental issue. We live in a society where we have zero financial education in schools, most of us. There are a few very lucky people who have exceptions to that rule, a small, small handful of people who got a personal finance class in high school. We're up to now. I think the number I just heard, Paula, was 40% of schools this year have it, but they're not great. It's like we're checking the box. Yeah. Well, and that's a big improvement over even what millennials and Gen X and certainly
Starting point is 00:07:01 baby boomers experienced. It's gone from 25 to 40 just in the last three years. Yeah. So we live in a society where personal finance is not taught in schools. And yet, it is the foundation of your life. Literally, your wealth and your health. There are no two things that are more fundamental. wealth, health, health and relationships, I should say, those are the fundamental building blocks of your life.
Starting point is 00:07:26 And yet when it comes to all three of those, we don't get any education in it. We don't get education in effective interpersonal communication and having high emotional intelligence such that we can sustain healthy relationships. We don't get education in how to live a healthy lifestyle. Maybe there, some people might have a health class in eighth grade. But for the most part, we don't really get an education on the importance of sleep or nutrition or anything related to our health and wellness. And we don't get education on personal finance. These three core building blocks of life are completely overlooked at school.
Starting point is 00:08:11 What do we do? Well, these days, a lot of people turn to social media. the issue there is that particularly if you are feeling hopeless or feeling discouraged, hopeless is a strong word, but if you're feeling discouraged, there are people online, on social media who will sell the dream. And that dream is something for nothing. That dream is quick and easy wins that are risk-free. You know, that dream is let's stick a middle finger at Wall Street by piling into shares of GameStop.
Starting point is 00:08:53 And we can simultaneously make a statement about despising Wall Street while also getting super rich overnight. That's the GameStop meme stock saga, right? with GameStop and AMC and BlackBerry and all of those other meme stocks that ran up. And it was actually just a pump and dump scheme. But that's how we end up falling for pump and dumps. Well, you see that with crypto coins, the Haktua woman. We still haven't gotten clarification on this, but that coin that she created, I kind of feel like she even had it pulled over on her.
Starting point is 00:09:34 She was being used for a pump and up scheme. Exactly. Like she came into fame very, very suddenly. To her credit, she formed a company called 16 minutes because she understood that she was in her 15 minutes of fame. And she wanted to extend that. So to her credit, it shows a great deal of self-awareness. She named her company 16 minutes. She started a podcast, which is how you form deeper, more longer-term relationships with your audience. She really started to make the move from being a viral sensation to developing a fan base. And unfortunately, she was convinced by bad advisors surrounding her that she should jump in on the cryptocurrency craze. I think she did not understand crypto. She didn't know what she was doing. And the people around her turned it into a pump and dump scheme and really made her the fall person. So her reputation took a, I'd say a fatal hit. She may or may not go to jail.
Starting point is 00:10:33 That is my belief, too. I mean, I don't have any evidence of what happened. You and I obviously weren't in the room. but that's my feeling to you. Yeah. She got used. Yeah. I've listened to interviews, not just interviews, but I've listened to investor calls with her.
Starting point is 00:10:44 So I listened to some of the calls that she did with the crypto investors who bought her coin. What an example of somebody who really did a lot of things right and made very savvy moves to turn a fleeting viral moment into a sustainable business. And I think she could have done it. I think she had that entrepreneurial. edge. She was charming. She was witty. She really had that edge and she could have done it had it not been for the fact that she got bad advice. Horrible advice. Yeah. You know, there's people also, Paula, on the other side of this, you talk about selling the dream. There's also people that
Starting point is 00:11:26 sell the fear. You know, the annuity salespeople really come out of the woodwork when we start talking about down markets. You know, it could all go bad. The gold salespeople, you know, the gold salespeople. Oh, you know what you do? You turn this into gold coins. And we've got these coins that you should buy instead or these gold bars that you should buy. People selling fear, people selling something for nothing. The salespeople in an unregulated social media environment just seems to be the worst place to look. And yet, when you see studies, to your point, the younger you are, the more likely you are to get your advice from social media. Right. And so I think that is the fundamental problem is we have this subject matter that is critically important to our lives.
Starting point is 00:12:12 We receive no formal education on it. And when we turn to online sources for a device, we don't know what we don't know. And therefore, we don't have in the early stages the judgment to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff. We don't know how to critically assess all of these different voices that we hear. One is telling us about Forex trading. One is telling us about day trading. One is talking about options and futures. One is talking about crypto. One is a Bogleheads forum and is talking about index fund investing. And if you're a beginner, they're all the same. How do you differentiate one from another? If you're just starting out, you don't have the critical infrastructure inside of your head to be able to ask the right questions and pick at the flaws. Because when it comes to money, the
Starting point is 00:13:01 the goal is not to have the answers. The goal is to know how to ask better questions. And when you're just starting out, you don't know enough to be able to ask intelligent questions. I had this guest on our show a few weeks ago. He was a neurologist. You see the level of sophistication that I bring to the questions that I ask to a former hedge fund manager versus the level of sophistication,
Starting point is 00:13:29 which was zero, that I bring. brought to my interview with the neurologist. So you got your brain and stuff? Yeah, yeah. I literally think that one of my questions, it might have been one of my first questions, I was like, so what is a brain? We were starting from there. By contrast, when Bob Elliott, the former Bridgewater guy, who's the head of Raydollio's
Starting point is 00:13:51 investing team, he comes on the show and boom, instantly, we're talking about tariffs and trade policy and monetary policy. We're diving right into the subject matter. and I'm talking about how to develop a critical framework so that we can look at monetary policy, government spending, tariffs, and taxes as a cohesive whole rather than looking at each one piecemeal. And that's a much more nuanced question than what is a brain. And both are important, but they certainly reflect different levels of background, different levels of understanding how to critically assess what you are hearing.
Starting point is 00:14:32 And so I think, George, to your question, the beauty of what we currently have, which is this infinite cacophony of sources, is that, in theory, by virtue of listening to a wide variety of voices, we can start to develop some criticality. because we're going to hear conflicting advice from the index fund person versus the 4x trading person versus the day trading person. We're going to hear different ideas, different styles, different philosophies. And in theory, by virtue of being exposed to this wide variety of ideas, we can then narrow down to find the one that makes sense to us.
Starting point is 00:15:23 I think that is the optimist view of it. The perhaps realist view is that we do a lot of our thinking with our amygdala to go back to the brain. We think we're thinking from the prefrontal cortex, but we're actually acting from our amygdala more than we realize. No amount of listening to a wide variety of voices is going to change that. And in fact, listening to a wide variety of voices and particularly over listening to the wrong voices can pull us off course, sometimes to very damaging degrees. Imagine if as part of your financial education, I'm using education in air quotes, imagine if as part of it you go down the rabbit hole of listening to voices that tell you that sports betting is a great way to manage your portfolio. and that you should take all of your savings and put it into sports betting. If you hear somebody say that often enough, you will start to believe that it is true,
Starting point is 00:16:30 and it's exciting, and it's addictive, and it could be construed as quote-unquote financial education, because, hey, it's teaching you how to make more money. And so I think that the counter to that, you know, because when we talk about financial advice, advice is by definition prescriptive. I think as the counter to giving prescriptive advice, what we need is financial media that creates a foundational building block understanding of how things work. And that comes from the study of economics. And so I think what we truly need is economic media. For me, with stacking Benjamins, if somebody wants to talk economics, I generally,
Starting point is 00:17:19 pass. But the reason I pass is because economics so often intersects with politics. My whole foundation, I love the idea of foundational knowledge. My whole foundation is we deal with the politics that we have. Let's talk about what we do about it. So I believe the Stacky Benjamin show begins with what do we do with what we have been handed with the deck of cards that we have. So I will often begin building not at economics. I'll begin building with the rubric of the certified financial planning community discusses the six areas now seven because they include behavior, but the six non-behavioral areas of financial planning and how do those work? How do we dig into those six areas and how do we make a better life using these guides that the professionals use? And what are the six areas?
Starting point is 00:18:17 You'll see these with different names attached, but generally speaking, number one, cash flow management. You'll see that also listed in places is financial position. Second is risk management, investment planning, tax planning, retirement planning, and estate planning are the six different areas. In fact, it's funny, I'm even online looking at different financial planning websites. And here's another one that talks about cash flow. analysis. Again, same thing is cash flow planning, protection planning versus risk management, same thing, investment planning, tax planning, retirement planning, estate planning. But those are the six areas of financial planning. And then they added behavior, which is a huge part of learning
Starting point is 00:19:03 to be a financial professional, is not just knowing the ins and outs, the laws, the modeling that goes into these areas, but dealing with the fact that your client is going to be a human being who's going to sometimes do some things that run contrary to the mathematics of the situation. Often. Often. Always. Yeah. Often and always.
Starting point is 00:19:29 Yeah. You know, and the reason that I like to start with economic education or like to incorporate it, and that's something that I learned while I was at that one year training that I did when I was at grad school, the reason is because so much. many people get outraged because they don't understand the motivations of others, whether those others are other people or other organizations. And they will often attribute the actions of others to greed or malfeasance. But if you lay it out, kind of lay out, hey, here's how the system works. Here's how the game is played. And here are the motivations and perspectives of
Starting point is 00:20:15 every player in the game. It's like learning the rules of chess. This is how it all operates. I think if you can do it right, it has the effect of diminishing that outrage. And we live in a society where so much media, again, people get paid to make you angry. That's the way the media landscape currently works. And if you can be that voice in the media that provides calm rather than outrage, that takes a measured approach rather than jumps to conclusions, that takes a nuanced look, rather than engages in tribalism. I love that discussion because when I was in college, I began taking psychology classes because I thought that I wanted to know why people do the things that they do. And then I realized that I wasn't getting that from psychology. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of it
Starting point is 00:21:13 wrapped up in psychology. But you know where I found it? Paul, was in philosophy. When I start taking philosophy classes, and then we realize we get these conflicting philosophies, I've got part of me operating on philosophy, A, another piece operating on philosophy, B, and they often, in ways that we can't even articulate, they come out in different areas, which make us contradictory in the way that we act. We do these contradictory things. So I love that. What I also realize, and this to me is what I also love about, what you and I get to do is that some podcasters are just storytellers. They don't talk about any of this.
Starting point is 00:21:54 They do everything according to story. I've decided I don't have enough time. I don't have enough time to do all the things I want to do. So here's the little square that stacking Benjamin is going to do. You have the square that afford anything is going to do. There's another square of people that are, I'm going to make you angry. This is my square. But what's cool is, as a creator, you get to decide, I think that's important because I think
Starting point is 00:22:21 everything you said is important. I'm not going to do it on stacking Benjamin's because for me, we have also the background that having been a financial planner for so long, and OG still being a financial planner, we can go deep, way deeper on teaching you what's going on across the table from you and how a pro does this act of financial planning during the same time. I 100% think as a listener, I also have to know what that rubric is that the creator is using because then I also know what type of an audience member that I am. I mean, let's talk about Dave Ramsey as an example. When Dave Ramsey says, all debt is bad, that's phenomenal advice, Paula, for his average
Starting point is 00:23:11 listener for the people that come to him with the problem that they have. If you begin with all debt is bad, that is kind of an introductory money philosophy. But when I'm talking to five million people, I'm not going to dilute it with, well, some's good, some's bad. And there's a gray area. And you know what? No, it's going to be black and white. But I think Paula, knowing that that's where Ramsey's at and understanding this is what the creator is building, you, me, Dave Ramsey, Susie Orman, doesn't matter. I think that's an important point of knowing what you're getting into and you listen to any financial creator. I think the big question underlying all of this that hasn't been directly stated is who do you trust? And under that, how do you
Starting point is 00:24:05 trust and why do you trust? What decision-making criteria do you use to determine who you trust? And I think in relation to that question, we have this K-shaped distribution of the population where there's a small number of personal finance enthusiasts who know who Dave Ramsey and Susie Orman and you and I and J.L. Collins and Mr. Money Moustache. And Vivian, too, you're rich BFF. They know who all of us are. And they follow that cacophony of voices. And then there are people who don't.
Starting point is 00:24:46 And the vast majority, the other side of the K, K is not even the right shape for it because K kind of assumes some evenness in the... It's more like a river with a tiny tributary. Personal finance enthusiasts are the tiny tributary. Super tiny. Right. but the vast overwhelming majority of people know nothing about personal finance.
Starting point is 00:25:11 Absolutely nothing. Remember at the stacking Benjamin's meet up in Nashville a couple of years ago, you and I were there. We sat in a circle outside with a bunch of cool stackers and afforders, and we had a great time. And there was a guy there who'd worked on Wall Street, his entire career, had no idea who Dave Ramsey was. Remember that?
Starting point is 00:25:29 That's right. I still remember his name was Kenny. can he just raise the hand partway through? Because somebody asked us a question about Dave Ramsey and whatever. And he's like, who's Dave Ramsey? Worked on Wall Street for 30 years. Like, that's what a small tributary this is. There's people on Wall Street do have no idea what's going on in personal finance.
Starting point is 00:25:48 Right, exactly. And even CNBC, you know, George mentioned CNBC and the business media. Often they'll cover what's happening in the world of major companies. This stock went down, that stock went up. this company revised their earnings reports, this company saw their revenue decline. They will report on what's happening in the world of major companies, but that's very different than personal finance. So to George's point, you really did, for a long time, just have Money Magazine and a couple of
Starting point is 00:26:19 books, The Millionaire Next Door. And so for that tiny tributary of people who want something more than just Money Magazine and The Millionaire Next Door, both of which are amazing, but it's nice to have options, For that tiny tributary of people, the world has expanded in a way that I think is very positive. And now there are so many niches that you can find people who reflect your set of interests. I remember even back in 2010, it was difficult to find that intersection between personal finance and real estate investing for individual investors. If you wanted to design a retirement portfolio, but one that essentially,
Starting point is 00:27:01 assumes that you also have some rental property holdings, it was very hard to find media that talked about that. And that was 15 years ago. You know, now there's certainly a lot more. So you can find now, because of this abundance of choice, you can find a variety of voices that match your interests, but you also get a lot of noise with that as well. I think that when it comes to, when it comes to that rubric of who do you listen to, I just keep going back to the take action. What do you listen to that actually makes you go do something instead of just listening to another one, another one, another one, another one, another one, another one, another one, another one. I'm going to fill up my day with listening to financial podcasts and I'm going to do nothing. Right, right.
Starting point is 00:27:50 But it's a great way to stay motivated, you know. Some people say, oh, motivation is only temporary, but like, showering is only temporary. That's why you do it every day. It is great surround sound. Yeah. If you're doing those right activities to surround yourself with normalizing those activities that so few people have, but more people need is just an exciting place to be. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:28:14 So thank you for the question, George. And I love your voice and your spirit. Come on over, neighbor. come on over to TXK. The holidays are right around the corner, and if you're hosting, you're going to need to get prepared. Maybe you need bedding, sheets, linens. Maybe you need servware and cookware.
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Starting point is 00:30:08 but many things for our customers. Big Bank Muscle, FinTech Hustle. That's your commercial payments of fifth third better. Our next question comes from Heather. Hi, Paula and Joe. I'm Heather. Long time listener, first time caller. Started listening in about 2019. Just been listening to Paula's rant about why renting isn't necessarily wasting money. I in principle agree, but I think frequently for the majority, it does make sense to buy. Firstly, my house that I live in now only has a 1% rate on the mortgage. Monthly payments were meant to be 2100, of which 370 was interest, on a 500K mortgage, and we decided to set the payments at the rental value of three grand, and now we've set them at the rental value of five grand, which means we will pay off this mortgage in 10 years just by making
Starting point is 00:31:07 payments at what the rental value will be. And it's quite a huge chunk going to principle because the interest rate is so low. Secondly, I don't think in the UK there is necessarily a huge opportunity cost of investing in your property versus the stock market because most people, roughly a third of first-time buyers, get their deposit as a gift from parents. And of those that aren't even getting the gift from parents, the money is just sitting in a a cash account. Only 20% of Britons invest in the stock market. Most people are too scared and they don't. In terms of the running costs of a home, in the UK, they seem to be a lot lower than they are in the US. I just insured a four-bed home. The insurance for the whole year was £300. We don't have property taxes.
Starting point is 00:31:53 We have something called council tax and the person renting has to pay that. Maintenance, on average, I just sold a home I'd owned for 18 years, and the maintenance, including mortgage, was about 500 pounds a month, and all the other maintenance, including anything I had to fix in that house, over the 18-year period, averaged £100 a month, which is really low. And in terms of home equity, the house that I just sold increased in value from $250K to $580K when I sold. on your property to rent ratio, incidentally, that was 21, both when I bought and when I sold. But I only put a 12,500 deposit into that house and only lived in it for about five years and was only paying mortgage interest of 500 quid.
Starting point is 00:32:41 It was an interest-only mortgage, and hence making a huge return on the, at first, 1,500 rental and then two grant. So for a 12,500 investment, which I recouped multiple times over through, rentals and then ultimately made a 330k capital gain, I don't see how that could have been a bad investment. And I would be really interested to see why you think that were not a good investment. So sorry, I'm speaking fast, but I got timed out and I'm about to again. And she gets timed out. She did. There's a three-minute limit on our voice messages. I think we got the nature of the question, though, Paul. Yes, absolutely. So Heather, first of all,
Starting point is 00:33:23 Thank you so much for the question. Thank you for listening. Thank you for being part of the afforder community since 2019. That means that you've been with us through COVID, through the pandemic, through all of the changes that have happened around the world in the last six years. So thank you for being part of this community for so long. To respond to what you've talked about, so first of all, as you mentioned, the price to rent ratio for your home was 21. both at the time that you bought and at the time that you sold. So you're actually totally in line with what I've been talking about, which is that if the price to rent ratio is 15 or less,
Starting point is 00:34:05 it's a slam dunk that you should buy. You don't even have to think about it. If the price to rent ratio is 15 or less, buy. If the price to rent ratio is 25 or more rent. But if the price to rent ratio is between 16 to 24, and you are pretty much right in the middle of the middle of that at 21, right? If the price rent ratio was 16 to 24, then you're in the gray zone. And when you're in the gray zone, that's when it's time to take a lot of other factors into account. And so what you've talked about, which is the fact that your maintenance fees are low, and it sounds like in the UK, maintenance fees are generally a lot lower than they are in the U.S., based on what you've said, the fact that your maintenance fees are low, the fact that the
Starting point is 00:34:49 interest rate is low, and what that means fundamentally is that the amortization crossover point is going to happen much earlier, because remember, the amortization crossover point is a function of the interest rate. Based on all of those factors, when you're in that gray zone of having a price rent ratio that's between 16 to 24, those are the factors that you should consider. So you're completely spot on. we're in total agreement because your price-rent ratio at 21 is right in the middle of that gray zone. There were a couple of other things that you said that I want to comment on for the sake of the broader audience. You mentioned the only 20% of Britons invest in the stock market. I haven't verified that. I haven't fact-checked that myself.
Starting point is 00:35:35 But if that is true, that sounds like a problem. Because without stock market exposure, without equity's exposure, how are you going to build any type of long-term wealth. If it's true that 80% of Britons are leaving their money in cash, that means that money is getting whittled away to inflation. And I know that the UK has had a battle with inflation just as we've had here in the U.S. The solution is not, therefore, more Britons should put their money into buying a property. The solution is, therefore, more Britons should invest in the stock market because gaining that exposure to long-term assets is going to be critical to any type of long-term wealth building or any type of long-term goal.
Starting point is 00:36:22 You mentioned a third of first-time buyers get their deposit from parents. I'm assuming every time that I talk, I'm assuming that you support yourself or that you and your spouse as a couple support yourselves. So if somebody has the benefit of generous parents, we can talk about that on a case-by-case basis. It would not be responsible to give financial education based on the assumption that you come from a family that has so much disposable income that your parents can give you tens of thousands of dollars, which is what a down payment would be. in addition to that, for the cohort of people who do have that benefit, that doesn't change the math around whether or not a home is worth buying. For example, if you live in a place where the median price to rent ratio in your location is 30, right, or 35, it doesn't make any sense to buy there,
Starting point is 00:37:24 whether you get that down payment from your parents or not. And so if they are willing, let's say that your parents want to give you a gift of $30,000. It would be better for that gift of $30,000 to go into the stock market, to go into equities. It would be better for that same bucket of money that your parents are giving to you as a gift to go into equities rather than go into a property if you live in an area where the price to rent ratio makes renting a slam dunk. Can we also evaluate this piece of property against the stock market, what you're talking about, using her numbers? Now, I didn't quite catch all of the cash flow numbers. So her number is going to be a little better, maybe much better than just the capital gain that she got on the property. But if we just take the capital, I just want to take that capital gain because the capital gain to everybody in the community is going to sound great.
Starting point is 00:38:27 She took a property that was $250,000 and 18 years later sold it for $580,000. That sounds like a significant amount of money. And don't get me wrong, it is a significant amount of money. Yeah. Well, pounds. However, if we use an arbitrary unit of measure, whatever it might be, taking something from 250,000 things to 580,000 things over 18 years, sounds great. But if we use the rule of 72, 72 for people new to.
Starting point is 00:38:57 this community is this mathematical, magical number that you take the interest rate you think you're going to get. You divided into 72 and it tells you how many years it would have taken your money to double. For example. Yeah, let's take 8%. Eight divided into 72 every nine years, Heather's money's going to double. So if she had $250,000 in equity in the stock market every nine years, it would double. The first nine years have become half a million. arbitrary units of measure. Dollars or pounds. Into then, the second double then would be a million.
Starting point is 00:39:33 So what we need to compare it to is not, does 250,000 to 580,000 sound like a lot? Yes, it does for 18 years. But in 18 years in the stock market, getting 8%, which is a metric that the stock market has beaten consistently over long 18 year periods of time. It doesn't over short periods of time, but over long periods of time it does. That number should have been a million. Right. If over the span of 18 years, that money went from 250,000 to 580,000, if we're looking purely at the appreciation, like let's assume that this home is paid off and we're talking
Starting point is 00:40:09 about having that amount of money in cash. If we're looking purely at the appreciation on a cash value asset, that means she has quote unquote lost. $420,000 of opportunity cost. Now, some of that, I know she got back through cash flow. I had trouble keeping up with the cash flow number. I think I might have missed a piece of it. So it would have been closer than that 420 with the cash flow. However, still there's going to be a significant delta between the two, Paula. Right.
Starting point is 00:40:38 Well, and what Muddy's her particular example is that she's blending primary residence with rental property. So she lived in this residence for five years and then rented it out. And so when we talk about whether or not you should purchase a home, we're talking about your primary residence. The math around evaluating a rental property is completely different. Good point. Because yes, it was renting versus buying was the original. You're right. Exactly. And so when she talks about the cash flow that she received from this property after she moved out of it after year five, for the purposes of the question of renting versus buying your primary residence, that cash flow is irrelevant. Non-existent. Exactly. Because the question that we're addressing is should you rent or buy
Starting point is 00:41:21 your own personal residence, your primary residence, the place where you sleep. Again, Heather, the fact that this property had a price to rent ratio of 21, which is right, pretty much smack dead center of that gray zone. If the gray zone is 16 to 24, the dead center is 20. You're neighboring dead center of the gray zone, both at the time of purchase and at the time of sale. And so you're a perfect example of corroborating exactly what I've said about purchasing a home as a primary residence based on calculating the price to rent ratio. And then if you land in the gray zone, taking these other factors that you've talked about, such as amortization crossover point and maintenance costs and length of time that you think you'll hold the property, taking all of
Starting point is 00:42:13 those factors into account. Now, that being said, my expertise is the U.S. real estate market. I don't know the U.K. real estate market. And as you've talked about, it sounds as though in the U.K., across the board, there are lower property taxes, lower insurance costs, lower maintenance costs. And so it may be the case that, again, the U.K. market is not my expertise, but it may be the case that the price to rent, gray zone might shift a little higher in the UK in order to accommodate for the fact that the carrying costs are lower, if that is in fact the case. And the beauty of the price to rent ratio is that you know that if you're outside that boundary line, you know that if the price to rent ratio is 35 or 40, then don't even think
Starting point is 00:43:08 about it. I live in Manhattan where the median price to rent ratio is 50. 50, 50. So don't even think about buying a place here. At least not for monetary purposes. You might want to do it for emotional satisfaction the same way that you would buy any consumer item, like a handbag or a set of golf clubs or a sports car. There are certainly a lot of things that people buy a boat. You know, people buy lots of things for the sake of emotional satisfaction. If you want to do that, cool, do that all day long. But as a purely financial decision, In a place like Manhattan where the median price-rent ratio is 50, it simply does not make financial sense. And so the beauty of having a price-to-rent ratio calculation is that you know when it's a slam-dunk to buy, which is 15 or under, when it's a slam-dunk to rent, which in the U.S. is 25 or over, and when you're in the gray zone. And being in the gray zone simply means you apply a lot of numbers. apply a lot of math to figure it out. So I want to go back to what you talked about, about how the home over the span of 18 years increased in value from 250,000 to 580,000,
Starting point is 00:44:25 which drastically underperforms, just using the rule of 72, that dramatically underperforms what the market would have done, assuming an 8% annualized average market return. A lot of people will counter that, hey, she put down only 16,500. And so all of the gains that she made, she didn't make those gains on a $250,000 purchase. She put down $16,500 and therefore her cash on cash return. Yeah, leveraged money return. Yeah, exactly. The leverage to money return is much higher.
Starting point is 00:45:06 That is the argument that a lot of people make specifically for rental properties. And when it comes to buying rental properties, if you do want to use a leveraged money return example, and I talk about this kind of in depth in my class in your first rental property, there is validity to a certain extent the cash on cash return equation, which is the leveraged money return equation, when you're considering the purchase of a rental property because you are fundamentally looking at an asset and asking yourself, does that asset produce a sufficient return, enough of a sufficient return such that it would be worth leveraging into it? Certainly when you're purchasing a rental property, running that calculation makes sense. For a primary residence, and again, my expertise is in the U.S., but in the U.S., for a primary residence, once you factor all of the holding costs, the property taxes, the insurance, the maintenance, the HOA, the tremendous holding costs that we have here,
Starting point is 00:46:16 it really starts to become a wash. So I do want to make a distinction between evaluating a property as a primary residence versus evaluating it as a rental, because they're completely different games. And that's why, Heather, when you talk about the performance of your property, I want to tease out the fact that it was a primary residence for you only for five years. And after that, it switched into being a rental. And so we have to evaluate it by two separate sets of standards based on its use. There's one final point that I also want to raise. And this is, if we can up-level this for a moment, this is a thinking about how to think point.
Starting point is 00:46:55 Heather, what I notice is that for the majority of your voice message, you give us one very specific anecdotal case study. and extrapolating from one anecdotal case study out to a broader population is not a framework for thinking through financial decisions. For example, let's use an analogy here. When you get the flu, you might have a friend who recovered from the flu by not taking any medicine and just drinking tea, decath tea and eating lots of chicken noodle soup. And then you might have another friend who took medication and drank a lot of water. And then you might have another friend who just drank beer and vodka the whole time. All right. So you've got these three friends and they had three different approaches to dealing with the same problem. And you've got a bunch of anecdotal case studies and you don't
Starting point is 00:47:54 know what's what and you don't know what's the right approach and how do you deal with the fact that you have this, this flu, right? Let's say the friend who just drank beer and vodka the whole time, let's say all three friends had positive outcomes. Can we extrapolate from any one of those anecdotal case studies to arrive at a broader conclusion as to what most people with the flu should do? No, not necessarily. Instead... Not even not necessarily. I think it might be dangerous. Right. Exactly. Exactly. I was trying to be gentle there. Yeah. It would be dangerous to extrapolate from those three anecdotal case studies. When you've got the one person who drank tea and ate soup, one person who took a variety of over-the-counter medicines,
Starting point is 00:48:41 and one person who just drank alcohol the whole time, drank vodka the whole time, right? It would be dangerous to extrapolate from any of those, even though for each individual, it worked in that one particular case. So instead, when we think about how to deal with the flu, we rely on. foundational principles rather than singular case study anecdotes. And as a framework, as a thinking framework, that's what I want to impart to everyone when it comes to the topic of real estate. Because so often in real estate and in investing generally, there's often an overreliance on individual anecdotes, anecdotal case studies, where people will say,
Starting point is 00:49:33 Well, it worked for me. Therefore, it should work for everybody. And that is easy to do when you don't have any formulas or any equations or any structured way of doing the math around it. And that's why I talk about the price to rent ratio. That's why I talk about for rental properties, calculating the cap rate. That's why I bring up the cash on cash return equation and the various pros and cons associated with using it is so that we can have the structure of mathematical formulas in order to not rely on anecdotal case studies. It's easy to think that way as well, Paul. It's actually easier than ever before to think that because it works this way for me,
Starting point is 00:50:17 it works this way for everyone. And truly, we have to guard against that more than ever before because social media algorithms are better than they've ever been. and through a recent class that two of us at Stacky Benjamin's took at MIT, we dove deeply into this topic and it's troubling. It is troubling how easy it is to fall into the trap of because we are in a surround sound that's created specifically to get more advertising dollars out of our wallet that everybody thinks the way I do. And when I hear somebody who has a conflicting view, I'm much more likely then to say, well, they're the exception and I'm not because the people that agree with me are the people that social media shows me.
Starting point is 00:51:05 So it really is something we need to guard against more than ever before. Right. It's easier now for financial companies to prey on our fears or people selling things that prey on our fears. If I'm worried about the stock market or I'm worried about investment risk, all of a sudden annuity starts showing up. If I think that, you know, I've been looking at how to make money quicker. All of a sudden, the crypto stuff that we talked about earlier in the show, that starts showing up, you know, this magic thing, this pill that's going to solve all my problems, start showing up. It is incredible how companies are able to do that. And just how they do it.
Starting point is 00:51:43 It's funny because everybody talks about how, you know, we all think our phone is listening to us. and our wonderful professor, Sanon Orel, is his name, talked about how much more nefarious it is, what companies are doing. Paula, if you have your phone on right now, and I have my phone on right now, we have, through one of the hundreds of apps that we have on our phone, one time given permission that it can locate us, one app will use the permission another app gave it. to place you and I in the same place. They will use predictive modeling about the things you've been talking about recently
Starting point is 00:52:25 and the things I've been talking about recently to predict what the conversation is that we're having. Therefore, it will begin showing you things that are interesting to me that I've been talking about recently. And then you will ignore the five things that we didn't talk about. But you'll pick up immediately the one thing that we did talk about that is something that was interesting to me. me that I just shared with you. And now when you go search for that thing, it knows the algorithm that knows how it spread. It's spread from me to you. Wow.
Starting point is 00:52:58 And it picks that up as well. It's far more nefarious than the speaker listening to us. The geolocator is downright creepy. Wow. Like a virus. It's so horrible. It's so horrible. Have you heard about the stories on TikTok?
Starting point is 00:53:15 There are a bunch of people who talk about how. The TikTok algorithm knew that they were bisexual before they themselves knew. Wow. Right. Like a group of friends who you were around, what you were talking about, what you were thinking about predictive modeling again. Yeah. TikTok knew their sexual orientation before they themselves became consciously aware of it. Just using law of large numbers and you fit into this group probably.
Starting point is 00:53:42 And wow. Hmm. Yeah. There are a whole bunch of creators on TikTok who talk about that. Yeah. So yes, that's why we want to rely on first principles thinking, which means, you know, what is a formula? Like a mathematical formula is simply a concise representation of an idea, of a principle. And so that's why we use these mathematical formulas like cap rate or like price to rent ratio or cash on cash return or if you're getting into real estate investing, the internal rate of return, the net present value. We use these formulas because fundamentally a formula is simply the manifestation of a concept, of a principle. And by virtue of using formulas, we can make these first principles rooted decisions. Now that being said, we have to be careful about which formulas we use.
Starting point is 00:54:39 So like I said, cash on cash can be problematic. There are pros and cons to it, but the cash on cash formula specifically, I think can be problematic. I've got a whole different rabbit hole I could go down about that one. When I say, careful about what formulas we use, that's another way of saying careful about which principles we adopt. But all of that, that rooting in first principles thinking, you know, that's what spares us from over-reliance on anecdote. But in your case, Heather, you did a great job. I mean, wonderful returns on that property. Joe, we have a special treat next. Oh boy. Oh, ice cream? Ice cream.
Starting point is 00:55:19 It's better than ice cream. Whoa, you're kidding me. It is a call from a listener whose question we answered recently. And he called with an update, with an update on how he has applied our answer to his life and what's happened next. We love hearing these. So please, to anybody who has ever called with a question, please call back and give us an update because these are some of my favorites. So we're going to hear that next. Our final comment today comes from Nick. Hi, Paula and Joe. This is Nick from Dallas. I was just calling to say thank you for answering my question about private equity in episode 601.
Starting point is 00:56:10 I wasn't even aware of the accredited investor requirements and agree that would have only added additional risk to my portfolio compared to putting it in equities and it's probably something my wife would not have appreciated me doing. after I submitted that question, I listened to various episodes on both The Ford Anything and The Stacking Benjamin Show discussing current market volatility. And I realized I needed to cool my jets and think a little bit more objectively about the best place for our money. So I ended up meeting with Jesse Kramer over Zoom. And he helped me out a lot coming up with a good plan for how to best buy into the market downturn and with the funds that we have. And I'm currently implementing it along the efficient frontier. Thank you both again for being the excellent educators that you are. And I wish you both the best in the future.
Starting point is 00:56:48 Oh, that's so great. Oh, I love that. I love that so much. And our good friend, Jesse, from the Stecky Benjamin's Roundtable team. Yeah. Helping out. Jesse's fantastic. Just a great guy.
Starting point is 00:57:01 I'm very happy that we could help, Nick. It's funny because with all the volatility, you're seeing this far too often. Paula, there was a piece recently in Investment News, which is an industry rag for financial professionals, talking about how someone. firms are now authorizing their advisors, aka salespeople, to recommend alternative investments far more than they were before because it's a huge sales opportunity, which really frustrates me a ton because I feel like if these companies had the guts to train their sales force to teach people that this is the time, this is the time when the market is lower. if you just believe the economy is going to pull through, which is not a far-fetched bet by any means,
Starting point is 00:57:54 that means that this is the time to be investing in the stock market. This is the time to double down on our position. Now, don't get me wrong, if you've got money you needed in the next three or five years, it was in the wrong place already, and that's a whole different thing. But if your money is 10, 15, 20 years from now and you want more excitement, invest more money into those index funds. because five years from now you're going to be high-fiving yourself. And if these companies would teach their people to do that, sure, your short-term sales might suffer a little because there's
Starting point is 00:58:27 something that doesn't get it. But those long-term investors that believed in you and relied on your advice and it was proven correct, they're going to love you even more. You know what's going to happen instead? They're going to buy these investments, these alternative investments. They're going to go south, a bunch of them are going to go sideways. And five years from now, they're going to lose the customer for two reasons. A, they didn't take advantage of the opportunity when it presented itself. And B, they neutered their chance of success by investing in these things that didn't grow. Sure, it hedged against it, but it didn't grow. I'm seeing people talk about, well, maybe I should move toward gold. Looks like might go into a recession. What you should be moving toward are things that
Starting point is 00:59:12 match your long-term goals. And I get so excited to hear that Nick is doubling down on his long-term goals. Because Nick, that's going to be the win. That will be the win. For anyone else who's listening, who is still feeling queasy about market volatility, because the volatility has lasted, I think, longer than some people expected. I think a lot of people were hoping that we might have one or two rough weeks and then things would be fine again. But it looks like things are going to be shaky for a while. We hear on the news every day that we may already be in a recession. The U.S. in Q1, we had negative GDP growth.
Starting point is 00:59:51 We may already be in a recession. And if we're not, we might go into one soon. Remember, recessions are only declared in hindsight. So we technically will not know when we're in a recession until after the fact. Now, sometimes like in 2008, it's blindingly obvious. or in 2020 it was blindingly obvious, but sometimes a recession is not necessarily obvious in the moment. Well, there's plenty of things to be worried about, Paula, in the near future. I mean, as we record this, I'm reading these reputable sources like Reuters, Bloomberg, talking about empty container ships reaching the United States from China,
Starting point is 01:00:38 because so many companies were unsure of tariffs. So there's still another shoe that could drop when it comes to the economy. People are talking about, well, you might see some empty store shelves because companies are like, I don't know what's going to go on with this. So I'm going to wait to protect my company just to see so we can keep people employed. So we can protect ourselves. So there may be more volatility. And I think it's important to be okay with feeling the fear, but truly things.
Starting point is 01:01:08 thinking through what the appropriate medicine is, or the appropriate antidote in our portfolio. What's the best thing to do here? Feel the fear. You know, Pauly, you and I telling people, oh, don't be worried about it. I mean, you're going to worry about it anyway. And there's plenty to worry about. But separating that emotion from your action, I think, is a huge piece of successful investing. I want to recommend two things. Number one, Xanax.
Starting point is 01:01:44 Have you watched a white lotus? Larazepam. I had to Google what it was. And then I saw all these memes that were like, there are two types of people in the world. The ones who had to Google what Larazepam was and the ones that didn't. I have not watched it. I have watched it and I had to Google what that was. But now I know. And I also know which camp I fall into. Number one, I don't necessarily recommend having a barbell allocation for everybody. There are significant pros and cons to it. I personally have a barbell allocation in my own portfolio. Again, emphasizing I don't recommend it for everyone or even for the majority of people. Can we talk about why you don't?
Starting point is 01:02:32 Why I don't recommend it or why I... Well, why you don't recommend it. I know why I wouldn't. recommend it for everybody. Okay, cool. I guess let's start by defining what it is. So a barbell allocation is, if you think of a barbell at the gym, right, where you've got two big weights on either side of a bar, so I've got a ton of cash on one side, and I've got all equities on the other side. I've got nothing in the middle, meaning I don't have a bond allocation. I don't recommend that for the majority of people because that bond allocation smooths out the volatility in a
Starting point is 01:03:06 portfolio. It's an asset class that frequently moves inverse to equities, not all the time. They're not necessarily inversely correlated, but they frequently historically have been. And so you get that mix of fundamentally companies that you own, which are equities, and companies or organizations, government entities that you are lending money to. That's what bonds are. So for bonds, you're the lender. For stocks, you're the owner. And by being a mix, of both an owner and a lender, i.e. both stocks and bonds, you get to a better risk-adjusted return in your portfolio. Again, going back to the efficient frontier, you know, you get to a more comfortable place along the efficient frontier. And so that's why, for the majority of people,
Starting point is 01:03:52 I think having a mix of stocks and bonds is a good idea. For myself personally, I have two factors, two extenuating factors that make my portfolio a little bit different. One is that I have seven rental properties that are all paid off in full, free and clear. And so that acts as the income portion of my portfolio. If you think of a bond as an income producing asset, seven free and clear rental properties are the income producing portion of my portfolio. And so I see that almost as analogous to a bond allocation. On the other side, I also am an entrepreneur. I own a small business and I have a handful of employees and I need to make sure, first and foremost, my primary objective is to make sure that I can make payroll for my team. And so I need a heavy cash
Starting point is 01:04:46 allocation because I'm not going to let this business fail and I want to make sure that we have runway. I'm not a W-2 employee. I can't just find another job. My responsibility is not only to keep myself employed and continue paying myself a paycheck, but also to make sure that my team, which has, they have families that rely on them. Like, I want to make sure that they get paid. And so I need to adjust my own holdings accordingly, you know, for for the sake of that small business runway. Based on both of those things, I have a need for a lot of cash. And so then I use all equities to offset that cash. So that's why I have a barbell allocation. Where all of that is going is to say, even though I don't recommend barbell for the majority of people, when it comes to something like a recession or something just like a market drawdown, like what we're experiencing right now, there is a certain comfort that comes in the short term from knowing that you have a heavy cash allocation.
Starting point is 01:05:53 You know, knowing that you have a runway for the next at least year. and that in the W2 world would be a solid emergency fund. Knowing that you've got that cash allocation, that emergency fund, that provides a lot of immediate comfort. And then for the rest of your money, outside of that emergency fund, this is a buying opportunity. When stocks go on sale, what do you do when anything goes on sale? If it's on sale, you buy more. If it's on sale, you load up. Stocks, it's volatile right now, and it's going to change day by day, but there are many days right now where the stock,
Starting point is 01:06:26 market is on sale. In the short term, are you catching a falling knife, possibly, but in the long term, meaning 10 years or more, bullish on the long term. I think you're catching a falling knife if you're investing in an individual stock, or there's a much better chance if you're investing in an individual stock. If you're investing in an index, I think, sure, you're getting a lower price, but that knife, to your point, Paul, if you're looking 15 years out, there's no such thing is a knife. You're just buying it a lower price. You're buying into the economy a lower price than it was before. And if my goal is to evaluate this 10 or 15 years from now and not day by day because I'm a tomorrow investor, not a right now investor, I'm not doing it. But certainly if, you know, I'm investing
Starting point is 01:07:14 in Invidia right after the deep seek news came out, there's a chance that's a falling knife. I don't know where that thing's going to land, right? At that particular moment, we didn't know how Nvidia was going to respond. We had no idea. You're seeing this right now with Tesla and all the news around Elon Musk now saying goodbye to government stuff and now getting back in the driver's seat of his company. No pun intended. You like that? Are people going to forget the hatred that all these supposed customers had around Elon or are they going to remember? We don't know. We don't know if it's a knife or not. on. So for that reason, the falling knife, I think, depends on whether it's a diversified approach or a singular thing that we're looking at. Exactly. I don't think a broad market index fund, such as an S&P 500 index fund or VTSAX, in the long term, will not be a falling knife. Yeah. I don't make definitive statements. That was a definitive statement.
Starting point is 01:08:20 Yeah. If you want me to couch that at all, I'll say, based on stock market history, we know. Let's put it the way that you really mean it, Paula. It will not be. Well, and if you are wrong, you and I don't have podcast anymore. Right. Civilization has collapsed. The economy has failed. And we're now on a shortwave radio setting out SOS is between people's caves. Yeah. Otherwise, you're 100% correct. Right. Because you have to be. I mean, that's the nature of that singular bet you have to make for you to be correct. Is it the economy, if the economy continues, 100% correct. Right.
Starting point is 01:09:01 Assuming that the U.S. continues to exist. Assuming that civilization continues to exist, right? Assuming anything other than an absolute, like such a Black Swan event that the term black swan doesn't even begin to cover it. And this is why I really don't like the phrase, play the stock market. I don't play the stock market. the stock market means it's a roulette wheel and i'm looking too much at one day oh you know what over one day if you look at the statistics around the roulette wheel that is the stock market on a daily basis
Starting point is 01:09:34 there's a lot in common but over time where we can actually draw negative correlation paula to the roulette wheel because that little bit of edge the house gives itself in las Vegas Atlantic city or wherever that make sure over long periods of time they're going to win. The fact that it's the companies that are creating the inflation that we're all fighting means that if the economy continues, they're going to win, which is why on about a 70% basis, again, over long periods of time, the stock market ekees out meager gains, meager gains, meager gains that translate to 8 to 10% over an average year. And you learn the longer you invest that there's no such thing as average, so it's going to bounce around a lot more than that. But smooth sailing if you're looking
Starting point is 01:10:22 at 15-year periods of time, not single days. Right. Can I talk briefly why I don't like a barbell allocation? Oh, sure. The reason why, and by the way, I love a barbell allocation, but the reason I also don't recommend it for everybody is this. Individual investors tend to not look at the entire barbell. They don't look at their real estate and their cash and their stock market investments. And as a single portfolio. We tend to isolate. And I know that from going into meetings and talking about rebalancing portfolios. And I go, hey, Paula, guess what?
Starting point is 01:10:59 Fund A is through the roof this year. And you're like, yeah, that's been great. I love that one. Fun B, not doing so well. Yeah, I know. I really hate that one, Joe. And I go, okay, it's time to rebalance. Guess what we're going to do?
Starting point is 01:11:11 And you're like, oh, we're going to put more in Fund A because that's the one doing really well. And I go, no, we're going to take money out of that. You're crazy. Why would we do that? Okay, what are we going to buy? It's probably something else good. We're going to put it in Fun B. And you go, what, the crappy one? Are you kidding me? Like we micro manage our portfolio. We don't look at it as an organism that's organized so that one part goes up while the other part goes down. And because of that, what a barbed allocation does is it takes one part of your portfolio and drastically increases the standard deviation, meaning it's going to bounce around a hell of a lot more, knowing that you're playing a full portfolio game. So I wouldn't recommend it because you're going to blow up your own portfolio because you're going to be in my office going, we got to get out of this now. This bounces around way, way, way too much. Not thinking about your entire net worth, just thinking about that one.
Starting point is 01:12:03 So I don't like it, not because it's wrong. I don't like it based on the behavior of the person that I'm recommending it to. There were some people I'm like, this is the right medicine. but you can't handle it. Right. It's just, you're not going to sleep. It's going to be horrible. No, thank you.
Starting point is 01:12:23 Can't do it. Right. It's the seventh principle of financial planning, this behavior. This behavior, right? And it's so important. It was so important. Listen, this strategy will work, but you've been thrown off the roller coaster way before you get to the end. And that's the worst result ever.
Starting point is 01:12:40 So why even get on that if you're going to, if you're going to fall off and not reach your goal? So instead, I'd rather more smoothly expect lesser returns and get a ride that clicks along with a lot less volatility. Because if you seriously can't sleep every day, and this goes back to it's okay to worry, and I can't tell you not to worry, worry is natural. You're going to worry. But if you're worried so much, Paula, that you're staying up at night, which the barbell approach, if you're a micromanager is going to create that, you can't do it.
Starting point is 01:13:13 Well, you can. You shouldn't. Yeah, the behavioral element is the single most important foundational element of personal finance. Can I say one other thing, Joe? One other tip for people who are dealing with current volatility. I do believe it's your show so you can say whatever you want. It's crazy how that works. Wow, thank you, Joe.
Starting point is 01:13:32 If you are planning on making Roth conversions, make it when the market's down. Because then you're converting a smaller amount of money. 100%. When you make a Roth conversion, you're paying taxes on the amount of your portfolio that you're converting. So if the market's down, you're paying taxes on a smaller amount. And then all of the gains, the recovery accrues in that Roth account. I know a lot of people who save that move for the end of the year. So they have some certainty around their tech situation, their own personal situation.
Starting point is 01:14:03 But in a year like this year, that's a great move to make. Yeah. Now, you know, another move that I like that is in some people's investment policy statement. I don't like this reactively. but I love this when it's part of your policy. I love the policy that when the market goes down, assuming I'm in indexes, I am going to systematically increase my standard deviation as the market drops more. And what that means is different than the person I was reading in an online forum recently that wrote in this Facebook group,
Starting point is 01:14:39 they wrote, there's now, it's gone from a 60% chance the economy's going into a. recession up to 90. I'm thinking about going into gold right now to counter that. I know. And I went, oh, please no. I hate that. I love it if systematically your system said, oh, that's the trigger that means that I'm going to take more risk. I'm going to stay diversified. I'm not going to take individual position risk, but I'm going to use broad-based indexes and I'm going to go further up the efficient frontier. I'm going to accelerate into it. That's a wonderful move. But only if it's a system, I think. Not I think I know. Only if it's a system. And we have a plan to increase the gas and then a plan when I go back, right, to my original allocation. I love that. That's another great move.
Starting point is 01:15:35 Yeah. Awesome. I love that. Because then you're buying in at precisely the right time. You're buying in when it's cheap and you're buying into the asset classes that are going to, over time, likely to produce higher rewards. They're going to rubber band harder. Yeah. Reversion the mean. And I'm going to believe the economy is going to continue. And if it does, I'm going to notch it up.
Starting point is 01:16:00 Now I'm not going to get crazy and put everything in small cap value. But I might go from the 30% allocation for people that, you know, went through that with me. I might notch it up to 35, the more volatile areas in my portfolio. Make that that cap instead of 30. It's super, super interesting the ways people handle volatility. And gold is number one, the worst way to handle it. Not just because getting into gold now is not great, but also because you got to figure out when to get back out. When are you going to make that move, Paula?
Starting point is 01:16:36 Probably never. Yeah. For most people, for most people, it would be probably never. Yeah. I remember a guest on the show talking about, and I won't throw them under the bus by saying their name, but saying that they had bet on precious metals and they'd sat there for three years and now they're in the uncomfortable position of hoping the stock market goes down so they can get back some of the gains they missed. And think about that. When the market goes up 70% of the time and you're hoping for it to go down so that you can recover from your oops. Yeah. You're hoping for a low probability event. Yeah, that is not a great place to be. Yeah, yeah. Just trapped.
Starting point is 01:17:16 But Nick, fantastic. Yeah, love it. Love it. Thank you. Congratulations for taking all the right steps. And thank you for calling and sharing that with us. And to anyone listening, if you have a question, afford anything.com slash voicemail is where you can call in, leave your question. Joe and I would be happy to address it.
Starting point is 01:17:36 And if you've already called in, please give us an update. I love hearing voices from this community. That's why I love these Q&As. We quite literally have more voices on the show. So, Joe, we've done it again. We did it. And by the way, we should tell people actually how we did it. Paul, where are you right now?
Starting point is 01:17:56 Oh, I will never tell. That'll be our secret. Let's just say I'm working remotely from an undisclosed location. From an undisclosed location. Joe, speaking of undisclosed locations, where can people find you if they wanted no more? Oh, man, at the Stacky Benjamin show, Paula, we've had a bunch of great stuff. A week ago on Friday, you and Jesse Kramer and OG Doug and I, we recorded an episode that was really interesting because even with people who are as financially savvy as our roundtable group is, I asked the question, not what's the right move? what move makes you happier?
Starting point is 01:18:37 And we drew this dichotomy between, and the answers you guys gave were really interesting. Really, you hear some advice all the time. Does it make you happier to pay with cash or happier to pay with a credit card? Your answer surprised me. Does it make you happier to buy an individual stock or to buy a fund or an index?
Starting point is 01:18:55 That surprised me. On Wednesday, the always amazing guy, I can't believe that I've never had this guy on Stacky Benjamin's before. I talk about them all the time. When I give talks, I talk about how wonderful he is, especially when you're starting out. J.L. Collins comes on the Stacking Benjamin show on Wednesday.
Starting point is 01:19:15 So a couple of great ones. But we're every Monday, Wednesday, Friday. So come join Paula in the gang on our fun roundtable. Oh, fantastic. Thank you, Joe, for joining us and for sharing your insights and wisdom. No, thank you, Paula. Oh. And thank you all for being.
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Starting point is 01:20:19 free. Affordanithing.com slash newsletter. That's affordanithing.com slash newsletter. Thank you again for tuning in. I'm Paula Pant. I'm Joe Solcihai. And we'll meet you in the next episode.

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