All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ

Episode Date: December 24, 2022

(0:00) Bestie catch up! (3:05) Kicking off the 2022 Bestie Awards (4:12) Biggest winner in politics (9:11) Biggest loser in politics (16:37) Biggest political surprise (23:35) Biggest winner in business (29:48) Biggest loser in business (42:21) Biggest business surprise (51:16) Best science breakthrough (57:36) Biggest flash in the pan (1:42:24) Best CEO (1:47:38) Best investor (1:51:21) Worst investor (1:52:22) Best turnaround (1:55:58) Worst human being (1:59:57) Most loathsome company (2:01:32) Best new tech (2:02:34) Best trend (2:05:09) Worst trend (2:07:50) Best new media (2:10:26) The Rudy Giuliani Award for Self-Immolation! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://civil.ge/archives/469054 https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a39946577/us-to-replace-javelin-stinger-missile-stockpiles-sent-to-ukraine https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capm.asp https://www.wsj.com/articles/bob-iger-bob-chapek-disney-coup-11671236928 https://twitter.com/TwitterBusiness/status/1605651865818914816 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-13/crispr-gene-editing-breakthrough-brings-cancer-cures-closer https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1604871630613753856 https://www.amazon.com/San-Fransicko-Progressives-Ruin-Cities/dp/B08V3DV718 https://twitter.com/ShellenbergerMD/status/1491418120086454278 https://twitter.com/seanhannity https://youtu.be/HBiV1h7Dm5E https://www.amazon.com/Vital-Question-Evolution-Origins-Complex/dp/0393088812 https://www.amazon.com/Life-Ascending-Great-Inventions-Evolution/dp/0393065960 https://www.amazon.com/Putting-Rabbit-Hat-Brian-Cox/dp/1538707292 https://www.amazon.com/Audible-Cinema-Speculation/dp/B09V3FTWKY

Hey everybody, Merry Christmas. Happy holidays. It is the end of 2022 and once again, we're doing our Bestie Awards. Yes, at the end of the year, we do our bestie awards This is where we give awards to the biggest winners losers and many other Categories that you love with me again. Of course the Sultan of science deep in his Kurosawa Vibes, how are you doing Sultan? It was great to see you guys for dinner Kurosawa vibes. How are you doing, Sultan? It was great to see you guys for dinner last night, Saks, we missed you. That was a lot of fun.

We all got together twice this week for dinner while we were on vacation. And during our dinner, we took a vote. And Saks, you are now the director of the All In Summit. Congratulations. Yes, congratulations. Yes, the Griff design. Good, my first act is to veto it. Okay. There you go. Sorry to the fans.

Also with us, of course, is the dictator himself, Chimath, Polly, Hapatia, deep in his turtleneck phase and his vibes. Tell us about your winter vibes, Bestie. I mean, I can't believe that we all took over Lake Tahoe for a week together. It's cool, it's been a lot of fun. I gotta say, Saks, you'll be surprised. J. Cow has the life hack of life hacks here. He's figured out how to basically get everything pre-wired.

All the restaurants, all the reservations. It's been great, I've loved it. We've had a wonderful time. He bets an eight person table for every night. And he does it what, months in advance. So every night, he's got a monster. We've had a wonderful time. He bets an eight person table for every night. And he does it what? Months in advance. So every night, he's got a lot to do. He's got a lot to do. Every two weeks out, I get a table,

Vade for five, six nights in a row. And then I invite my besties out. And oddly, it turned out there's only one person from Jake House. I just am. Yes. There was always a room for the rest of us to show up. We had a wonderful time.

I picked up the check for the nachos and Chimath brought $6,000 worth of wine. I brought my own also to the restaurant yesterday so we could open the wine properly. It was wonderful. We've had a wonderful time. And of course, with us, looks like he had to work over the Christmas break.

Sacks, how are you doing, brother? You're working today? I'm good. I'm just hanging out somewhere. Well, come on. You can be honest. You're at the Twitter HQ. I recognize that incredible architecture and design.

They spent so much money on that office space. Beautiful. That's definitely beautiful office. They got their own bespoke coffee shop here called The Perch. We're the people that work there. Too soon. Too soon. The people are working too hard to be hanging on the coffee shop.

We're like your winners, ride. Rainman David's side. And it said we open source into the fans and they've just got a reason for it. Love you guys, nice. We look in one. Queen of kilowatt. I'm going to leave. Okay, so let's get started with our Bestie Awards. This is a very controversial.

We start with a political award. And last year, you know, this is our, just so we're clear, this is not the prediction show. The next week will be the prediction show. This week is our winners. Queue the music. Yes, Q the music. Right there. Okay, here we go. 2022 predictions. This is what we predicted for the Best of the award for biggest political winner.

I said Ron DeSantis and so did David Sacks. We predicted in 2022. You said it after me. You said it after me. And the way you introduced it, you said, what did Tucker Carlson's writers come up with? I said to Santis and then you said to Santis. Are you starting already? Literally, I'm trying to give you your flowers. You know what, maybe you're fighting for the tape. Okay, take it easy.

You're going to get your flowers. So Ron DeSantis, obviously a big winner. So those were great predictions. Freeberg, with a wild car there, he predicted Putin would be a winner in 2022. That one fell a little flat. Did it not our friend Freeberg? Not a winner. No, I think he, you know, I mean, my projection was really built on, well, I thought it would be a big kind of influence that he would gain this year, you know, whether he's viewed negatively or positively, he's certainly at the center of the sage right now.

Now, Chimoth, your 22 prediction. this is your prediction last year for this year, was that the biggest political winner would be Xi Jinping, okay? Now, we go to our actual biggest winner. This is where we tell you who we thought was the biggest winner of 2022. Let's start with you, Saks. Who is your biggest winner for 2022? Political-based winner. This was the prediction that I nailed, as you mentioned it. So the red wave is a little bit more visible, but it crashed over Florida hard. So DeSantis is my pick. He won re-election by about 20 points. And his co-tails carried four new GOP House seats, which happens to be the exact size of the GOP majority.

Several polls have now shown him beating Donald Trump by significant margins for the 2024 GOP nomination. He is shattering fundraising records. Florida is now the fastest growing state. So he is my pick for the biggest winner, political winner of 2022. Great. Who is your biggest political winner? Chema.

I mean, it's obvious. It's a Gigi in pink. You know, there is no single person in the world that is now as powerful as this one man. He has complete authoritarian control over 1.2 odd billion people and 20% of the world's GDP and a large amount of the world's debt, including a lot of US dollar debt. And so, you know, it's pretty, it's hard to find anybody that won nearly as much as he

did. Okay. Now to you, Friedberg, who is your biggest political winner of 2022? I mean, I think your DeSantis and G-Gen-Ping calls were really like good. I think the biggest surprising winner for me is like, you know, unexpected, and that would be Zelensky from the Ukraine. I don't think going into this year, people paid as much attention to him. He was certainly not a sung hero, but coming through this conflict and I think leading the

storyline about our common enemy of the West and common enemy of democracy being Vladimir Putin really kind of made him a superstar and a hero on a global stage. I think that's evidenced by the fact that he was in the White House and he gave an address to the US Congress yesterday. So I would make him kind of the biggest winner of the year. It's hard to go against DeSantis. So he clearly has, as SACs correctly pointed out, gone into the lead. We'll see if he can be Trump in the primaries.

I have my doubts, but he does seem to be pulling in some of those moderates, right? I don't understand why you guys say he's a political winner. What did he win? He hasn't won the nomination yet. He got reelected to a state that he had before 2022. So what did he win exactly? Well, I think a couple of things.

One is when he won election to the governorship four years ago, it was by less than 1%. It was a tiny margin of victory. This was margin of almost 20%. He had co-tails, and he is now the front runner for the GOP nomination in 24. I think you can argue that you can make the case that maybe he's peaking too soon. Well, I'm glad you brought that up because if you look at the data, I think in the last seven or eight nominations cycles,

the person that's been leading the popularity contest going into the aisle caucuses has not won the nomination. He's peaking too soon, almost. That's a possibility, because when you're the front runner, everyone takes shots at you. On the other hand, if he stays this dominant, he will drive out other contenders out of the primary and he may be able to solidify it. And if it can just be DeSantis versus Trump in the primary, he has a much better shot than if it's Trump versus a bunch of other challengers.

And I think that if he continues to pull this well within the Republican party, I think Trump might not run again because Trump definitely does not want a risk being a loser in the Republican primary. So yeah, there's always frontrunner risks, but it's hard to say that coming out of this year that he wasn't a huge political winner. If we're going to challenge other people's picks, I would maybe challenge the Zelensky. There's no question that he's been a global media hero, but two-thirds of Kiev is currently without power. 80% of Kiev doesn't have water. 30% of the Ukrainian power stations have been destroyed. Nearly half of the countries without power, there's something like 8 million displaced Ukrainians in the country, and over 100,000 Ukrainians have been killed in this war. So yes, he's been a very

strong charismatic war leader for them, but... Freeberg, your response? I'm not advocating for his performance as a leader. I'm advocating for his accumulation of political goodwill. That's it. Okay. And he is winning the war. So, I guess, 30-30. Is that winning? Well, in war they say nobody wins, but it's certainly better than having your country taken over by Putin. So, some would argue that's winning. Let's go to biggest losers. Biggest losers. In 2022, we predicted. Again, this is our predictions from last year, and then we'll go on to our actuals for this year. Last year we predicted, Chimalt said the progressive left, Sack said Nancy Pelosi,

Freiburg, you said US influence globally, interesting. And I said the extremes, both Biden and Trump, let's go with our predictions, I'm sorry, with our actuals for this year. Chimalt wanted to go first this time. Who is your biggest political loser for 2022? I mean, I don't think it's as written about as much, but the progressive left did see as much failure as the MAGA, right. So they were a huge loser. I mean, to the extent that

anybody thought that leftist, you know, quasi-socialist policies and politics was a winning strategy, I think that was pretty soundly refuted, Even in places that were pretty staunchly Democrat, it was really difficult for the progressive left to do much of anything but lose. So I think that was a really powerful and important repudiation. And I think it's marginalized as them to a bunch of, you know, cooks almost. And I think that that's really healthy for politics going forward. So your prediction and your actual are going to be the same. Yeah, I think it. I think they were the biggest political loser in the United States at least. Okay. Yeah, Elizabeth Warren. We don't hear people talking about Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders much this

year. Yeah. And I think that the biggest political loser outside of the United States was probably the European Union. Okay. You want to expand on that a little bit? If you I think that the biggest political loser outside of the United States was probably the European Union. Got you want to expand on that a little bit? If you just think about the corner that they painted themselves into how much they had to basically literally go 180 degrees away from what their policies were, you know, there was a huge raft of whether it was green, ESG, kind of woke, liberal politics that manifested itself in all kinds of national security decisions and energy decisions that in this last year they literally had to undo in order to stay alive. And that makes that whole political construct, I think,

very fragile. So they were pretty big political loser outside of the United States. Okay, sacks It can be hard here to guess this one, but sacks who is your biggest Political loser in 2022 I have no idea who you're gonna pick here. By the way, I got policy right last year that she did lose the gavill So you've got to say that the war in Ukraine was the biggest event of the year and Obviously you can spread the blame around to a lot of people starting with Putin because he's one who ordered the invasion. But I would say this is a slightly different take on the category, which is biggest political blunder occurred on January

27th of this year when Blinken said that NATO's door is open and must remain open and that is our commitment. He basically shut the door. He kept NATO's door open, but shut the door on any means of a diplomatic off ramp to end this conflict by promising Russia that Ukraine would not become part of NATO. That was the single biggest diplomatic blunder of this year or maybe the last couple of decades, because there's a good chance we could avoid it, this disastrous war, if we had just been willing to close NATO's door. Wonderful.

Great crisp answer. Thank you for that, nice and tight. Friedberg, who is your biggest political loser for 2022? It was a tie for me between Jerome Powell and Liz Truss. Liz Truss just has to get recognition here for only being in office for 45 days as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. I mean, I think that is cannot be overlooked. Some of the policy and folks that she put in in office caused massive chaos. It was just a clear dysfunction over a very short period of time.

Jerome Powell, I think this was a big surprise this year to see how the Fed chair became so politicized and his role became so politicized, both kind of the left and the right, finding reasons to question his leadership and his decision making. The failure to raise rates soon enough led to massive inflation is what you'll hear from one contingent of politicians and the public at large. And then the rate at which he's raising rates now to catch up to the, to, to common inflation is causing people to complain on the other side. So there is really no one that seems to be happy with your own pal. And I think that, that, that was a, a shooting star that seems to have completely lost its

luster. Okay. So the Fed. Yes, good pull there. Okay, mine is pretty clear and objectively it is, of course. The GOP, the red wave failed, it turned into a trickle. Trump is back and I believe there's a good chance he will win the primary. Roe v. Wade, a complete, unmitigated disaster. Four Republicans, they caught the car and plus marriage equality and having

to deal with that women and the LGBT community vote. And they have long memories. The GOP, the biggest political losers for me. Okay, I'm sure Saks has never been all there, so we will move on to the next category, which is. By the way, if you say it that way, then the biggest political loser in 2022 were women. Look at fundamental human rights were stripped away from 50% of the population. That's not cool.

They could have left it alone. They could have left it alone. Well, if what you mean is that the issue was sent to the states and each state then gets to decide, then you're right, but if you look at the battles that have happened at the states, even red states like Kentucky and Kansas have rejected the subsequent political push to outlaw abortion. So it has not turned out to be just by the fact that all of these red states basically reconfirmed and enshrined a woman's right to choose may actually go more to show that the Supreme Court is totally out of touch

and that they didn't need to touch Roe v. Wade. And the fact that they did opened up, you know, a huge can of worms in 50 states that now go and need to go and adjudicate this thing where it looked like actually that decision, even back in the day, even though the way that it was done, there was a lot of room for improvement. Clearly, everybody agrees with that, but was actually after 50 plus years, reasonable law. And so now that you took that law away,

now folks, even in the red states, you're like, no, it was fine, which means that this whole thing was a huge political gambit more than it was actual societal intention. Okay, so we are going to move on now. I just outled my final two cents to that. As I said, I do think women and the LGBT community have very long memories and the people who are in the moderate are not going to forget how they were treated

by the GOP in this specific issue. So biggest political surprise. We didn't do predictions last year, but I'll just run down what everybody said was their political surprise. I said, the fact that Kamala Harris was sidelined was pretty surprising to me. And that's continued. Shemoth, you said Joe Manchin was your biggest political surprise. Glenn Youngkin winning. Sacks that was your biggest surprise and Friedberg. A January 6 crowd making it into the capital during the insurrection was your biggest political surprise. So here we go our 2022 biggest political surprise. Sacks, let's start with you. You have a lot to say about politics. Go. Well, the biggest political surprise to me was no red wave. So I admit I got this prediction wrong.

You know, I got all my previous ones right, Jake House. I'm going to admit I got this one wrong. You know, I believe that the electorate would focus on the fundamentals. Three-quarters of the country thought we're on the wrong track. Three-quarters think we're in a recession. Nevertheless, the Republicans did not do nearly as well as predicted. They only gained nine seats in the house. They actually lost the seat in the Senate. And I think that that had something to do with candidate quality. And of course, the whole election denial narrative, uh, basically was a disaster for them. I hope that their

Republicans move on and stop talking about the past. what voters want to hear about is the future. Rebirth, did you have a biggest political surprise for 2022? Rebirth? Yeah, it's also the failure of the red wave. I mean, that was my pick. I think the consensus going into the election was with rising inflation and the disdain that everyone had for the way politicians kind of managed us through COVID and then managed us through the economic recovery.

It was inevitable to see a flip and it didn't happen. I think obviously we talked about why that is, but that was a big surprise for everyone. Jamoth, what was your biggest political surprise of 2022? Jamoth Pauliapetia. The absolute toothlessness of MAGA and Donald Trump. I mean, he was just a scarlet letter. If you were anywhere near this guy, you were gonna lose. And that's surprising considering how traditional Republicans were pandering to him up until, frankly, just a few months ago. So I think that we exposed the emperor as having no clothes and that he marginalizes and sidelines candidates

into a fringe following that cannot go mainstream. That was really surprising to see how stark that was this year. Fantastic. I'm going to build on your schemoth. I had two here. Number two was Roe v Wade, but we've beaten that. I think we discussed it as much as we possibly could. My number one building on your schmop is that despite what's happened with Trump, the documents, the his cases in the United States and New York and about taxes, despite all of this, the January 6th insurrection, despite all this, Trump is still viable.

I can't believe he's still viable and that he is going to be out there in the primers and he's going to have to debate to Sanctus and I don't know that to Sanctus can beat him in an debate. I think he might win. So this is completely scary for both me and SACs. I think it's terrifying. SACs is nightmare and mine. Well, I think he's mainly viable in the minds of the maggot dead enders and the mainstream

media who want to keep him alive. And the Biden administration wants to keep him alive. And they'll do anything to keep him alive and in the news and you love keeping him in the news. So it's a, yes, it's a co-dependent relationship between the mainstream media, which you sometimes front for and Trump. Oh, be careful telling me what I think. We need to hand this co-dependency, Jake Hal.

Well, I wish the Republican Party would finally take ownership of this disaster that has Trump and tell him that he has no business, but you guys keep him in the game and the fact that he's viable. Again, your personal nightmare and mine. Okay, biggest business winner. Everybody excited to get off politics right now and get to our kill zone, which is business.

So last year, we had predictions in this category. I had said Disney, that's an up and down prediction. I'll get into that in a moment. Traumat, you said small and medium-sized businesses, the old SMBs, SAC said rise of the rest, the flyover states, and Freeberg, you said Stripe. Tramoth, let's start with you, SMBs. What did you get right? What did you get wrong here? I mean, I whiffed. It just completely missed the global macro shift that we embarked on in full force starting in Q1 of this year. It was, it is the most important business story of the year. It's just like we have an absolute complete regime change.

And by the way, that regime change is so complete and so, you know, thorough that it even touched Japan just a few weeks ago, sorry, just a few days ago, where Japan, who finally yielded on this idea, you're going to have negative interest rates and yield curve control, even they finally broke and raised rates. So it is an absolute worldwide sea change in how we need to think about risk. And I think that's worth talking about a little bit later in the show, but that was the

single biggest business story of the- Yeah, a lot of what Tomas said. I missed this too, even though on another prediction, when you asked what the biggest business loser would be, I think I said that it would be asset classes that had been pumped up by the Fed's money printing because you just started to feel- You know that now that-

Yeah, so I got that part right, but what I didn't connect it to were all the asset classes actually got pummeled. So I kind that part right, but what I didn't connect it to were all the asset classes actually got pummeled. So I kind of conceptually understood that rates were rising, but I totally underestimated the magnitude of the shift, the way that gross stocks would get hammered, the way that crypto would get destroyed, the fact that like Tiger basically got blown out of the industry. I mean, I had the right general intuition, but I didn't translate it into the specific asset types and the magnitude of the shift. And

also the, like, what you're most at a real regime change now and how markets are viewing stock performance. It's really incredible. Freeberg, let's get in on this. This is somewhere where you can contribute deeply. What do you think about your take last year and you still believe in Stripe? Yeah, I mean, look, it's a business that obviously benefited greatly from the pandemic and the adoption of the payment processing infrastructure that they've built across various kind of e-commerce platforms. I'm not an investor, so I don't have any numbers, but there are public reports that have highlighted

that the revenue increased 66% this year. They've indicated that they're probably gonna experience significant revenue slowdown with the recession ahead, but it still seems like a super high quality business. And, you know, valuation-wise, who knows what things are gonna be worth when they ultimately come to market.

There's certainly no one going to go in public right now. So at some point, we'll see whether valuation is played out of it. But it seems like it continues to be a very strong, one of the strongest private businesses that's being built in Silicon Valley. We will get to 2022, biggest business winners in one second. I will just say for Disney, have, man, what a swing. Bob Chapic in and then out and now Bob, I go back. So I feel like I got this one wrong and right. At the same time, I still believe in the company deeply. I think they're gonna have a big win.

Let's get to our actual biggest winner of 2022. Sachs, why don't you lead us off with your biggest winner of 2022 for business? I said Lockheed Martin along with other defense stocks. Lockheed Martin, which makes Javallins and high Mars is up 40% in the past year when most of the market's been weighed down. Northrop Grumman's also up almost 40%. And even some of the lesser performers like Raytheon and General Dynamics are up about almost 20% in a terrible market environment. The fact of the matter is war is terrible, but it appears to be good business.

We've sent so many weapons to Ukraine that there's recent press reports that are the US stockpiles of missiles, javelins, and stingers are now depleted. So these companies are going to keep doing well for the next year at least. Now there's a new appropriation sailing through something like $44 billion of new funding for the war. It's now over $100 billion. McConnell says this is a Republican's number one priority. This is now bipartisan concern. And if you think the war is expensive, which is way for reconstruction, that's estimated to cost roughly a trillion dollars to build Ukraine back. Sax, can I ask you a question about that?

Are these, when we fund these wars, I've heard different versions of this, can't get a clear answer. When we provide weapons and systems like this, are they not on account and we ask for money back at some point, do you know the answer to that question? You think we're gonna get money back? Are you kidding me?

It seems to be sometimes that we do, so that's why I was asking. I think it's something that has been clarity on. Look, I think the the war has been phenomenal business for the military industrial complex. So that's what we're seeing here. Not so great for the rest of the economy. Freiber, what do you got? Yeah, I mean, I think you guys will remember last November, I predicted energy and defense to be the best performing stocks for this year. SACs is right. I think defense is up 40%. So I kind of went with the bigger oil and gas companies are up across the board about

47% in terms of equity value in the public markets a year to date compared to the S&P being down about 20%. So over the short term, I would argue oil and gas companies, but I think that over the long term, there were a couple of big breakthrough moments that I would give kind of the winner in business that will benefit over the long term to open AI and to fusion startups.

And we'll talk more about why for those two, obviously later when we get to the biggest winner in tech and science. But yeah, short term oil oil and gas they benefited from the supply constraints and the conflict in the Ukraine. And the longer term I think opening eye infusion sort of. Well, and by the way, I mean, just to give free personal credit here, you actually predicted the war. Or you predicted A war, I don't know if you predicted this war, but you predicted the war

in-triangle-triangle-triangle. Yeah, I predicted the war and Putin kind of rising to the center stage and the defense energy. That was a huge prediction because I don't think most people, even most analysts, well, they were surprised even when the invasion happened. I think people were still very surprised both that Putin would order it, but also if you study the situation, I think you got to be surprised that we didn't negotiate harder to try and prevent it. I traded it too.

I bought an energy ETF. So it worked out for me. Okay. Chamothier biggest business winner of 2022. Oh, Nick can throw it up, but it's basically any single person that understands the following formula. So if you, this is the, this is the, this is the capital asset pricing model. So what is this? This is like before you make any investment, what it actually tells you is here's the rate of return that you need to generate above the risk-free rate in order for you to justify making that investment. And if you really understood

the capital asset pricing model going into 2022, it would have been difficult for you to not make money. Because all of a sudden, as the 10-year flexed up and as the volatility, particularly of things like tech stocks, went crazy, you could have figured out where you'd park your money and all of these people that have built businesses around this capital asset pricing model. You have companies companies obviously. So you know, you have sectors of the economy like defense or energy stocks, consumer goods and staples. They all had moments where they all did well. But if you take it one step above, the organizations that actually ran big macro books or really understood how to algorithmically implement this capital asset pricing model just ran roughshod over

the markets. And you know said in a different way, it's sort of my background, which is, you know, if you understood the capital asset pricing model, you would have been a massive bear, and the bear got fed this year to a degree that none of us could have anticipated. Okay, so am I correct saying the capital asset pricing model is the biggest winner? Or no, people that understood it. People that understood it got it. Okay, and for my biggest winner, I went with chat, GPT-slash, OpenAI, and their partner Microsoft.

Why did I pick that as the biggest winner? Well, on my other podcast, as we can start up, we play a game, chat GPT versus the first result of Google's. And Molly and I could not tell the difference. And in fact, we picked chat GPT's answers often above Google's. Google, one of the greatest businesses and franchises ever created, has no answer currently for chat GPT because Google's business model is to get you to click on an ad between links. If you give the actual answer, then the person doesn't stop clicking. If they stop clicking, Google stops making money. There is no business model in search if the person gets their answer because they're done. This is an existential threat like we have not seen and our friend Sam Altman has a line chat GPT slash open

AI with Microsoft. Microsoft I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with open AI. That has a significant impact on Google's franchise. We didn't think this would ever happen, and it's here. Okay, the biggest losers in business, we made predictions last year. I said in 2021, the biggest loser in 2022 would be crypto. By the way, Friedberg, you agreed with me, and we nailed it. You agreed with me. You agreed with me. Well, yes, that's correct.

We were in agreement. How about that? We were in agreement. We were in agreement. Saxe, independent. You said, uh, and Chimoff, Visa, slash mastercard, we'll get into that. And sax, you said asset classes benefiting from government pumps. Very interesting. The fed stopping QE, interesting. Anybody have comments on their predictions or each other's predictions from last year? On a percentage basis, David absolutely nailed it. He's absolutely nailed it. On a dollar basis, the biggest business loser of this year was Big Tech.

And I think that you saw three things happen, which I think are important for the future. The first was, it was the most crowded trade, both by professional money managers, as well as retail. And that fever finally broke in the second half of this year. And now going into these last few weeks, you're seeing a lot of panicked selling to cover losses and other things. So I think that number one, that happened. Number two, regulators basically said, we're going to go after these guys every single which

way we can. And then number three, I think it started to change the innovation cycle where people now actually believe that they can't outspend because folks won't tolerate it and the things that they're spending their money on seem kind of foolish. And so I think the big tech is probably not discussed enough, but it was a huge loser for this year in terms of what happened to them. In 2022's actual biggest business loser, Trematz says big tech, Freeberg, who is your biggest business loser for 2022?

I mean, this one's just a simple FTX. I mean, that was such an incredible revelation of the scale of the scam and the fraud and the craziness that went on. And I think what was interesting about FTX is it had implications not just for crypto and not just for kind of offshore regulatory implications not just for crypto and not just for offshore regulatory and not just for fraud, but also for the investors.

We had a whole debate about whether the press and journalists failed to appropriately investigate this guy rather than give him accolades because he said the right things, which he said he did over I.M. And investors failed to do relevant amounts of due diligence or former board and have proper governance over him because they wanted to be part of the hot new thing and everyone had capital to deploy. I think what was interesting about the FTX failure is it didn't just, it wasn't just a failure due to fraud, but it revealed so many parts of kind of, you know, call it, you know, systemic laziness and systemic kind of blind eye and systemic bias that allowed and enabled this to happen.

It was really a revealing kind of failure. And that's why I kind of gave it the award. Mr. David Sachs, who is your biggest business loser of 2022? Well, you kind of mentioned this. I picked Bob Chaypeck, who's the former Disney CEO. He was Iger's hand pick successor three years ago, then the pandemic hit, which shut down the theme parks. But then I think the big mistake was allowing himself to be mal-mout by woke employees into

picking a fight with DeSantis over the so-called Don't Say Gay Bill. That caused DeSantis to retaliate by threatening the special privileges that Disney enjoys in the state. And then he had Eiger undermining him behind the scenes. This was revealed, I think, as in a Wall Street Journal story that he was grousing to insiders that Chepeck was not soliciting his advice. And he was undermining confidence in with the board. And recently, Chepeck was forced out and Eiger was put back in charge. Fantastic choice for the biggest loser. How brutal does Igar look in that Wall Street Journal?

He's, I mean, would anybody work for him? Yes, he is incredible. He looks terrible. I agree. I read that piece twice actually. The CFO calling him up. She was the one who stabbed him in knife, Chepeck. It's a great Wall Street Journal.

I don't think that that happens without the support of the person waiting in the wings. Hey, listen, there's a couple of jobs you never quit. You never quit a hit TV show. You never quit a hit band like Roger water. It is. We're paying for why didn't they just extend this for the

Disney job is the best job. But that's the job in the world. But Jason, why go through the never quit? Why go through the theatrics of like grooming somebody, putting them in your job and then undermining them. Like, all I'm saying is if you're a good... I think he made a mistake. I think he made a mistake. He quit and he wanted to come... And also if like if you're a good up and coming exec, I mean, what do you do if like all

of a sudden like, you know, you have the opportunity to get groomed for that job? It just seems really risky. Yeah. I mean, I think Bob Iger realized when he, in that piece, they say he went on his yacht, his wife didn't come with him. The Wall Street Journal piece is incredible, and he's got bored, and he's 70-something years old. He's almost like in early 70s. Why would you give up the greatest job in the world? So he went back and he took it back. Didn't Disney have a mandatory retirement age? But this is my point is he was so, he was so prolific, he could have extended it. Why not just extend it and be done with it? Yeah.

Did you guys read the book he wrote? Uh, that, uh, right. A lot of lifetime, what is it? Yeah, and I think that what was interesting about that book was the entire thing was built around a series of deals that he did. It was like, I did this acquisition, and I did this acquisition, then I did this acquisition. And everything for him was building this empire by doing deals. And someone whose storyline and narrative that they tell of themselves that's built as a series of deals is a deal junkie. And you're not going to be a deal junkie where that's

your excitement, that's the thrill, that's the adventure that you get out of life. And then you go and sit on a yacht. You're not doing any deals sitting on a yacht, and you're going to want to get back to that. And I think it's less about kind of management and product, and it was much more about being in the midst of doing deals. That's probably why you came back. If this was part of Iger's diabolical strategy, get back, let me just say like one of the ways he did it.

I mean, Cheapak had the right instincts, which is when this whole Florida debate happened over Don Sege, highly contentious no comment You know comment his instinct was just to stay out of it But then Iger made some statements about how companies have to live up their values and not gun stuff And then the employees started, you know again, you know Amal mowing him to get involved and he took the bait And he got involved and what he didn't expect is that DeSantis wasn't going to disroll over. DeSantis hit him back really hard and it cost them economically.

And then he was a huge. And in the first interview that Iger gave when asked about this question, he was like, no comment. He went, but he's like, we're not going to get involved in politics anymore. We're not going to get involved in politics anymore. It was hilarious. That was hilarious. He nuts Chapec to basically get involved in politics and then

basically became cannon fodder for DeSantis. Exactly. And then I just like, we're out of this now. I mean, how did I have a ball? Oh, it's absolutely. So dirty. The other two things were Chaypec said, we're going to take away your PNLs to each of the leaders. That is like just neutering them. He basically said everybody's under the CFO, everybody's going to be on one PNL. That infuriated all the creatives.

And then he went to war with Scarlett Johansson over a $10 million settlement for her black widow. He couldn't handle talent, he couldn't handle the politics, and he wanted to control everybody's PNL, just unforced error after unforced error. Congratulations to my guy, bye bye, Greg, on the stock. Do you think he was diabolical at all? Oh, in the best possible way. In the best possible way, which means

the Disney stock is gonna go up. Yes, I'm buying more Disney stock this year. Is all the, the woke progressive politics that he projects, is that all just a game to mask what a vipers nest? Their executive suite really is. Are you telling me that Disney is a political corporation after Eisner and Bob Eiger and all of his Michael Ovitz? I mean, it's the history of Disney. It's the greatest job in the world. It is Game of Thrones to get that job. And Bob Eiger got it back. He's my guy. I'm sticking with him. Okay. They have the best IP in the business. I don't care how he gets that job back. He's awesome.

I gotta say the IP at Warner Media is a real strong contender. I mean that's the way it was. We were talking about this yesterday. How good white Lotus season two was. All right. Let's open the reddit. This discussion. It is incredible how HBO produces extraordinary hit after extraordinary hit. The quality and the consistency of that quality coming out of HBO is like nothing else. You'll go, I mean, look, Avatar 2, I did not like Avatar 1, I thought it was junk. Avatar 2 is getting panned for being junk as well. Not everything that comes out of Disney is a hit. They certainly have the best franchises, but man, Warner Media has a lot to contend with

and they could end up being a real challenger to Disney in the years ahead. Saks, did you watch the White Lotus season two? Yes, sir. Sorry, I haven't got any. No problem. It is absolutely fantastic. We have to do a little fan service here.

What did you love, Traumath about White Lotus season two? Give the fans a little service here. Wait, it's on season two. I didn't even see season one. I don't even know what you guys are talking about. Okay, it's the hottest show in television. We're fine about that. Well, I'll tell you what's incredible is there's a diversity of characters, and they weave

the super like, you know, interesting story together, but each of the characters are so distinct. And the characters are played so well. I mean, we were talking about, you know, we were kind of at dinner last night talking about who our favorite character was on the show. And everyone has a different answer, and everyone has a different reason. And then there are characters that you hate, but the fact that you hate them and the fact that you despise them draws you in, you're drawn into these characters. I think that the way that they kind of portrayed and the way that the characters were acted

by the actors and then the way that they all kind of weave together to tell this extraordinary story, it was really compelling and it was like just super impressive directing, acting, writing everything. There are handful of scenes in season one and season two, which I would say are unbelievably psychologically violent. And there's just no other way to describe like how they just expel and and and by the way they do it with simple shots, very simple dialogue. It's almost non-shelon in the way that they present these truth bombs and you have to sit there and process it and you're just like, oh my god, it's just it's wave after wave, it's an incredible, incredibly well written show.

The character development is extraordinary. Amazing. Amazing. Production and set design by the way. Also, I mean, when you watch it. Do you guys, don't you want it? You want to cool it? You want to go to those locations.

You want to go to those locations. You guys remember in season once, saxophone remember this, because sax watched it. Season one, the family is sitting at the table where they're watching the Hawaiian dance and Paula the guests of the family gets up and leave she can't take it anymore and then the next day They're in a discussion about it and the father says something about I think hierarchy or imperialism or something and it goes

Around the table and she just deadpan she says well, maybe it's just time for others to eat talking about you know like fixing these wrongs. And I had to listen to it two or three times. I'm like, oh my God, that is a line that just sticks in your brain. There's a few of those in that show that I think are excellent. And I was saying, they really draw you in the set design, the production design is so compelling. You want to be be there, you wanna be in that experience with those characters. The pineapple sweet. Yeah, you're totally drunk.

The pineapple sweet, I mean, and then in this season, that whole hotel, I looked up the hotel by the way online, they had, you know, their own set design people come in and redo the hotel, but it is an actual hotel. It's a real hotel. And they just made it so magical. Yeah, I was such an incredible. Oh, Freiburg, we should make that the host of the wall in summit 2023

Sorry, I'm working on my Jennifer Coolidge tell your director David sacks what you like it for you Yeah, my biggest loser was crypto and I think there'll be a subsequent domino to fall which is now that Gary G head of the SEC has FTX and the FTT tokens as the GRIFT. He's going to go down the list of other tokens and he is going to start doing more prosecutions of GRIFTs in crypto biggest loser for me. All right, biggest business surprise. Let's see if we can get Sacks back engage in the conversation now that we're not talking about art and life.

Sacks, last year, your biggest business surprise. Sacks just produced a movie about Dolly. I know, he is, I'm joking with him. He's a true artist. And he sold it to Mark Cuban. Congratulations on the sale, David. I guess me and Cuban are besties now. Fantastic. In 2021, our selections for biggest business surprises. I was very surprised by

Douse. Chamoth, by Moderna, Sacks, by Tech, moving to Miami, and Freedberg. You were surprised by NFTs. What were we surprised by in 2022? Freedberg, we'll start with you. You on Musk's acquisition of Twitter, I think think took everyone by surprise. It kind of went, I mean, this is such an obvious one, but it went from a whimsical fantasy and idea to suddenly cold-hearted reality with a huge kind of negotiating saga that took place and court battles

and all the drama that ensued. And here's what I think was most surprising about it. It wasn't just the acquisition and the fact that the acquisition closed. But it was the incredible veracity of the head cutting, cost cutting, the demands that people return to work, return to the office. And then what was most surprising that followed that is the impact that that seems to have had on the rest of Silicon Valley. Where now, nearly every VC I speak with, every CEO, every board is looking to Elon's behavior for right or for wrong, for moral or not, and saying that's a model for how you can challenge

your team to achieve the impossible in an impossibly difficult environment, which is what we find ourselves in. And so I think it was a series of surprising events. He bought Twitter. He made these incredible changes, and then everyone seems to be looking to that as a model. And it's really resonated. It's created a rippling effect. I'm not saying it's good.

I'm not saying it's bad. I'm not saying it's moral right or wrong. But the whole thing was really an incredible surprising, unexpected saga this year. So I give the Elon acquisition to Twitter. Kind of be a word. Shemoth, do you have a big surprise? I would say it's Jerome Powell and the Fed and their staunch hawkishness on inflation.

I think everybody wants all of this to be over, and I think we're definitely in the last few innings of it. But I think what was surprising was how consistent and how hawkish and how bearish Jerome Powell was every chance he got He didn't capitulate or waver from the key message which he was saying from the beginning which is We have the tools to fix a broken economy But we don't have the tools to fix runaway inflation. And so we will raise rates higher than anyone expects and keep them there longer than anybody

wants, because on the back end of it, we can fix a few broken bones. But if left unchecked, this could really do a lot of damage. And I think that that was an enormous surprise that all the political pressure in the world, all of the financial capital markets, pressure in the world, all of the financial capital markets pressure in the world did nothing to change his position. Sacks, what was your biggest business surprise of 2022, David Sacks, a biggest surprise? Well, it was a pretty big surprise

that Adobe bought Figma for 20 billion. That price tag in this environment, a pretty big surprise, but I gotta say, I think Freeberg nailed it. I gotta say that the business saga of the year was Elon buying Twitter. First, the liberal media was up in arms and he might do it. Then they insisted that he must complete the deal. In any event, he did ultimately buy the company now. He's affecting his changes. I agree. That's the big business story of this year. Certainly was a big surprise for me that I got deposition for six hours.

Is it a surprise that you're sitting in Twitter's headquarters today right now. Yeah, it is a surprise. But just by the way, the rumors and speculation are getting out of hand. I am not a candidate for a CEO of Twitter. So I want to put the kappa sh on that because it's starting to get out of hand. Jay Kale, the job is yours, my friend. Congratulations. All right.

I guess let me know you've earned it. You've worked hard. Take out the last man standing. Last man standing out. Wait out last. Now that sacks has said he is not taking the job a bunch of lives have just stopped taking Xanix. The lives biggest fear with sacks is going to get that job. We just canceled a bunch of Xanax prescriptions. Congratulations to the lab, sax is not gonna be your overlord on Twitter. For me, it's obvious, the Twitter acquisition is the biggest surprise by far and away.

Freeberg, I couldn't have summarized it better. I will say in six weeks, what we have seen there is nothing short of extraordinary. Have there been bumps in the road? Has it been a little chaotic at times, perhaps? But the features that are coming fast and furious are gonna be the story going forward. You've seen Twitter for Business,

SACS had his fingerprints all that. You may fingerprints all over that. You may have seen hashtags for stock tickers. I was briefly involved in that. There are going to be so many features coming and this is what Elon's zone of excellence is Product. He is an engineer. He's a product genius. The proof is in the pudding whether it's rocket ships or the cars We're going to see a parade of features. I predict in another six to 18 weeks I predict in another six to 18 weeks, we will see people talking about all the great features in Twitter, not any of the transitional issues.

And people will be shocked. My runner-up, Metastock collapsing. That was my runner-up for the biggest business. Shock is that they just absolutely collapsed. I was just going to add to what you're saying about new features launching. While we've been sitting here on this pond, I've been checking my Twitter feed.

There's a new feature where there's a view count on all of your tweets and all of everybody else's tweets as well. So you can see how many views a tweet is generating. So this tweet that I posted yesterday has 1.5 million views. It's like incredible. So it really shows the incredible reach of Twitter.

And anybody who's thinking about going to like some knockoff like Massadon or something, is going to have to contend with the fact that it doesn't have nearly the distribution. So I think this really shows the power of Twitter. And then Dave Rubin noticed my, I tweeted this just a second ago, and Dave Ruben noted that the New York Times doesn't have anywhere near the views for its tweets because they bought all their followers, which is interesting. I didn't know that, but I just went over to the New York Times profile and my tweets are routinely getting 10 to 20 times more reach, more views than theirs.

So this is a super interesting indicator of who actually people are paying attention to on Twitter, it's fascinating. This is fascinating. I'm looking at my own. I just did, how do you give a $30 billion fraud bail referring to SPF? And that was just less than an hour ago.

No, it's 30 minute, yeah an hour ago. And I have 50,000 views already, which is 10% of my follower count. So this is an extraordinary. You see right next to likes, ret hour ago, and I have 50,000 views already, which is 10% of my follower count. So this is an extraordinary. You see right next to likes, retweets, boat tweets, the feature train is coming. And this will change the dialogue. All these haters who are like,

Twitter is gonna go down, who are rooting against Elon. Let me tell you something. If a guy can land two rockets at a time, and he can literally restart the electric car movement, and he becomes the number one car in any category he releases a car in. How on earth would you bet against him to build software? You have to be idiotic.

This is way too much. I mean, you guys, like, we should, sorry, keep your future, keep your car, it's like an ad. Yeah, you're selling a product for a company that you guys are working at, like, I mean, come on. I'm not working at the company, I get the searches and work at the company.

Well, you guys are advisors, right? I mean, so. Nick, can you, let me show you another feature because I think it's cool. Nick, sure. Yeah, keep on featured. Let's go. Pull up my profile real quick.

Welcome to this week in Twitter. Oh my God. Twitter now has affiliate badges. You can see, I've got a little craft ventures badge next to my name. So if you, you should be able to click on it actually to get to the craft ventures profile. Yeah. So you're going to be able to affiliate users with business accounts and it creates kind

of secondary badges after the blue check. I think even the corporate journalists are going to love this because if you're a newer timeswriter, you'll have a little NYT badge next year name, Wall Street Journal, whatever, you'll have that little badge. So more and more people are going to get blue checks and then people are going to have secondary or even tertiary badges that are basically specific to their affiliations. Okay. So I think we get, let's get it all in bad.

We are going to have all in badges really soon. Awesome. Okay. Let's go. It's over freeberg, freeberg, sorry. That was our biggest business surprises. And we just canceled your account freeberg. You're scared. It's locked out.

We just took away your. No one goes through it anyway. It's all good to work out. Okay, best science breakthrough. Here's an easy one for us to do. 2022 biggest science breakthrough. What have you got, Sultan of Science? We core, of course, have to start with you. 22 biggest science breakthrough. What have you got? Salted of science. We of course have to start with you. 22 biggest science breakthrough. FreeBur.

Yeah, I'm going to give it obviously to the demonstration of net energy gain from the National Ignition Facility in Plasma Fusion that we talked about last week. I wouldn't call it a breakthrough by the way. I think we used that as a misnomer last week, but I'm still going to put it in this category. It's more of a milestone along a very long path, a very arduous path, a very difficult work that's been taking decades. So it's a great milestone, but I think what was so important and impactful and powerful about it is that it's really catalyzed a change, a sea change in the investing and the outlook that this is becoming more reality. As I mentioned last week, we've seen an increase

of nearly 40% in the number of fusion startups and the amount of capital that's flowing in is now reaching 10 billion a year. So this is becoming a real investment, or an area that's getting real investment. Some people might not think it's very investible, but that's why I think it's been an important year for fusion. And I think it's something I highlighted last year

I was excited about. And I too picked fusion. Also, just point of clarity. Last week, some people, Chimath, before you go to your prediction, we're saying, Hey, you're talking your book on solar when you were in your disagreement with Friedberg. That's obvious. You've been very upfront that you were investing in solar. You placed your bet.

Yeah, 100%. Yeah. So just to just to clarify, everybody knows he made that bet. He's talked about it incessantly. Plus those idiots that were saying that are stupid, but um, yes, let me uh, let me further clarify what I said last week and why it's important If Nick can you bring up the capital asset pricing model again? The most important thing for me is to make sure that we don't misallocate

human capital into endeavors that I think are best left for research institutions funded by the government. And I think when you look at a capital asset pricing model and try to build one out for fusion as an example, the expected rate of return that you need to get from this is just astronomically high because of the beta of that investment risk and the market risk premium you have to generate. And so, you know, from my perspective, I think that there are probably four or five labs in the world that are capable of actually getting us

to a positive energy equation. I think, Friedberg, I really thank you for actually saying that it wasn't a breakthrough in more of a milestone. I think the real breakthrough is when we have positive, not just jewels, but we actually convert that into electrical energy, right? And we actually talk about power and watts. And I think that most people listening

probably don't even understand the difference between jewels and watts or don't even care. And they want to jump around here or there. So the point is that there's an enormous path we need to take in physics. And I think it's best done in governments. And I don't want to see a bunch of billions of dollars get wasted to get to get marginal cost of energy to zero right now. I think there is a point in time where private startups can take the last 20 or 30 percent, but I think about this like the internet, which is you need a DARPA to build V1, and then it could be handed over to private industry.

And I think fusion, when we look back, will look very similar. And all the folks that try to build versions of the internet that were private, I think found themselves lagging because there's just a level of investment that's required that's best served in government. So anyways, let's clarify that for all the folks who got their panties in a bunch of instruments. But in any event, my science breakthrough of the year is that there was a 13-year-old That's, let's clarify that for all the, for all folks who got their panties in a bunch of yesterdays. But in an event, my science breakthrough of the year is that there was a 13-year-old girl. This was, you know, because of all of this fusion stuff, actually, we didn't even get

to cover it because it happened in the same week. And I think this is infinitely more impressive and is an actual breakthrough, which is a 13-year-old girl in the United Kingdom who had a here to four uncurable form of leukemia, T cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia. So typically you start in chemotherapy. If chemotherapy doesn't work, you move to Bomerrha transplants and it was uncurable. And a lab in the UK basically using CRIS, edited these transplant T cells to go in and

wipe out her cancer, and now her cancer is literally undetectable. Now if you bring up that capital asset pricing model again, Nick, what I'll tell you is, the rate of return on a human life in my opinion is infinite. And so here is an unbelievable breakthrough that got very little attention because everybody was wrapped around the axle of fusion. It happened in the same week, so maybe it's understandable. I didn't understand it, but I think this is the single most important thing that happened in science, not just this year, but frankly in the last decade.

Because if you can actually now do base editing and eradicate at least in this year, but frankly in the last decade, because if you can actually now do base editing, and eradicate at least in this case a blood-based cancer, and eventually we'll be able to bring that and use that towards solid-state tumor cancers, it's a huge breakthrough in just human longevity and human quality of life, and that happened just a few weeks ago. Okay, and of course for David Sacks, his biggest science breakthrough is I don't care. So moving on. Okay.

Sacks, go ahead, tell us. Yeah, no, this category reminds me of, remember when Biden had that moment where he's like, America can be defined in a single word, and he's like, a little bit, a little bit. That's kind of how I feel about this category. America is a nation that can be defined in a single word.

I was in the foot, I'm sorry. Amazing how you figured out a way to be derogatory about Biden in the science section. A new low even for you, Sachs. That's a good one, Saks. I like it. All right, biggest flash in the pan. 2021, this is what we said. We're the biggest flash in the pan. I said the woke socialist leadership of cities, i.e.

Chesa, Boudin, Freybrook said the Constitution down. Saks said the word transitory, very well played. And Shama said the metaverse, also very well played. Everybody take it. Oh, nailed that. Yes. Very good. Everybody get your flowers, enjoy all of those seem

like pretty good selections. But this year is what everybody wants to hear about. Freeberg, tell us now, who is your 2022 biggest flash in the pan? The undisputable, who we got. The biggest flash in the pan of 2022 undisputable, whoo, we got. The biggest flash in the pan of 2022 was the All-In Summit. Oh, wow, that hurts.

It came, that hurts. It went. That could always be a strong and significant memory. It was such a hot thing for a minute and then it died. So to the All-In Summit, I raised my glass, I poured one out, I toast to you to Miami. And unless David Sacks carries it from here, it was a flash in the pan. It was a flash in the pan. Sacks, who's your flash? Which Democrat is a flash in the pan for you? Well, this

is where I had Liz Truss. As you guys mentioned, she only survived 44 days as PM. I mean, that's only four scare mucces. Which is basically fired by the bond markets after she combined a Thacharest tax cut with massive energy subsidies to counter the price spikes caused by the war in Ukraine that's just from actually committed to. This was deemed untenable by the UK Central Bank, it crashed the pound. And I think there is a serious point here, which is that as much as thatcher and Reagan were the two towering heroic figures of the 1980s, I think zombie thatcherism is not going to be electrically viable in the UK, just like zombie Reaganism is not going to be viable in the United States.

I think that the conservative movement has to stop living in the past, we have to develop fresh ideas to meet the economic and foreign policy challenges of today. Jamaf, do you have a flash in the pen? I actually think fusion literally was a flash in the pen. It lasted 10 to the negative 10 seconds. So that more or less of a flash you can't have without being a flash in the pen. Ah, they haven't. Hey, uh, Sad face, look is here. Oh, look who is. Oh, is it the proprietor? The proprietor, the owner to our customer support at your service.

So actually spent the last 15 minutes selling your new features on the podcast. Pretty exciting. Well, the, like the views are like incredible. Yeah.. Well, the views are incredible. Like the, I mean, and I saw Dave Rubin already made an observation that if you look at New York Times, their views are maybe one-tenth like my views, just me as a lone tweeter. And he said that their followers are inflated by just basically buying a bunch of follower counts.

Yeah, the views thing is huge. That's why I pushed the views, which is like actually a lot harder feature to implement than you'd think because this year a number of transactions per second, like it's, I think it sort of requires system-wide on the order of three million transactions a second to actually calculate the view, you know, calculate and display the view count

if I put Twitter global. So it's like three million per second. It's a lot. For those of you listening, Elon Musk has joined the pod. Elon, how's the first six weeks been generally speaking of owning Twitter? Well, it's been quite a roller coaster, which obviously but witnessed and been on the roller coaster as well. Yes, the drama mean I've taken the drama mean. It's quite up there. Yeah, I mean, it's exciting, but I think it sort of has its highs and lows to say the least.

But overall, it seems to be going in a good direction. And we've got the expenses reasonably under control, so the company is not like on the fast-lated bankruptcy anymore. And we're releasing features faster than Twitter's history at the same time as having contained the costs and reduced the cost structure by a factor of three, maybe four. So, you know, the verified is obviously, that's huge. It's revenue stream as well as a means of identifying, of like knowing that it's a real person

and not a border or a trial situation. Having the organization affiliation, which I actually talked about, that was an idea of David's that was great to have organization affiliation. So you can know that somebody is an actual professor at Stanford or that this particular handle is actually Disney, not someone simply putting, I work at Disney in their bio. So I think that's going to be really helpful.

Just really just having detailed and nuanced verification. So of all the various things that you say you are, are these things validated by other people and organizations? Can you tell us how you do product iteration Elon? Because one of the things that I think some people got jolted by over the last couple of weeks is like a bunch of things got taken away or changed or rules changed or policies changed and there was very quick action. And then people had all this negative feedback about the quick action without communication. But your extraordinary talent is to iterate product to success.

Can you just maybe share with people how you do product iteration in this context to help them understand how some of these decisions get made and why moving quickly is so important and just how you're doing this? I'm a big believer in you want to look at the net output. So it's sort of like, you know, what's the badding average? If it's like baseball, the point is, is not that you like, you know, hit the ball, but it's like, well, how many home runs you get and how, like, what's your actual, you're slugging percentage.

Yeah, slugging percentage. Yeah. Yeah. It's like, you've got to swing for the fences. You're going to, you know, you know, strike out a bit more, but we're gonna swing for the fences here at Twitter And we're gonna do it quickly so And I think generally like my error rate and sort of being the chief twit will be less over time But you know in the beginning we'll'll make obviously a lot more mistakes because I'm new to the, I'm like, hey, I just got here, man. So, if you look at the actual amount of

improvement that's happened at Twitter in terms of having costs that are not insane and actually showing product that on balance is good. I think that is, that's great. I think we're actually executing well and getting things done. I think we'll have fewer gaps in the future. How did you get to your intuition on what the efficient frontier of employees needed to be to make the product better? Well, yeah. Well, I was a part of this where you basically asked the question, who here is critical and who here is exceptional? Yes, I mean, really, what the criteria is trying to apply, and obviously you're not going

to be perfect if you're moving fast, and there's a lot of people you're talking about here, is that anyone who is exceptional at what they do, whether or not they have positive effect on others, and they are trusted, meaning they've put the company's interest before their own, should stay. Pretty straightforward. Yeah. And also, it's up for working hard. That would not, that would not, that's not Twitter's prior culture.

Yeah, were you surprised that the intersection of that circle and the people that left was basically 25%, were you surprised it was that deep or did you think your intuition was like, it's probably somewhere in here. Well, I think you could just stand back and say without knowing how many employees Twitter has at all and say how many people Twitter has at all and say

How many people are really needed to run Twitter? Like they say you don't know what the employee head count number is at all How many people are needed to keep the site operational like let's say if excluding product Product evolution you basically have to keep the servers going. And you have to have customer sort of a support function to take down a material that is in violation of the law. How many people, what's the minimum number of people? That's in the hundreds, probably. It's not exactly. It's not like a giant number. Yeah. It's not as like 2000 people, right? Yeah, we're still 2000 people. It's not exactly, it's not like a giant number. Yeah. Twitter saw as like 2,000 people, right? Yeah, we saw 2,000 people, it's not nothing.

And actually, there's actually on the order of like almost 5,000 contractors. Almost, yeah, almost all of the, what's called trust and safety work, which is like the support functions for the site are done by contractors. You're doing a lot more in take down hate speech than the company previously was doing. Yeah, absolutely. Hate speech impressions are down by a third and we'll get even lower. Maybe you could speak a little bit to what we discovered, I think in those early weeks, which was the incentive. The incentive previously was to create as many accounts as possible.

And there were a lot of quick fixes to lowering all these, you know, what people might call bot accounts. In some cases, it was people opening many millions of accounts. But we discovered this very early. How easy was it for you with the tech team to maybe lower the bot count and all the fake accounts? Maybe it's a little bit to that because people have seemed to think that, gosh, it's a really hard thing to get rid of bots, and it turns out it isn't.

But we still have a fair number of bots in the system. But the, like, I think the, you know, the Sandstructure, the way Twitter set up previously was this relentless focus on what they called MDOW, which is monetizable daily active users, although I would say the monetizable part is devious. But at least things that appeared to be monetized or could be passed off as monetizable daily active users. So this I created an incentive to turn a blind eye to a fake accounts. So if the incentive structure is like, you know, maximized the appearance of monetizable daily active users,

then you're just as a strong incentive to pretend that a bot is real. And that's what happened. So we're taking a lot of steps to reduce the bots and troll situation. So many. And I think you're seeing that in the usage. It's not like relatively rare to have your replies filled with crypto scams. I'm not seeing any anymore. Freeberg, you had a question. Yeah, I mean, just on your earlier question, you know, Elon, when you first started

making changes at Twitter after you bought the business, a lot of people kind of took notice at how extraordinarily swift and significant those changes were. Yeah. And there's a lot of technology companies that have CEOs and investors and boards, and we all talk to a lot of them. And they're all now having a conversation like, look at what Elon did at Twitter. How can we do something as aggressive as Swift as deep? Do you think much about kind of the model you're playing for other businesses and other business leaders, particularly in

Silicon Valley and how you're operating Twitter. Do you ever kind of talk about that? Because I know you mostly talk about your business and you talk about the businesses you're running. But you're having a big influence, I think, and how other people act and behave that are other business leaders and run other technology companies. I mean, to Frank, I'm not really, you know, I'm thinking about that much because I'm just thinking about how do we just get Twitter to be financially healthy place and fix the engine of engineering so we can have a rapid

evolution of new products. So, and, you know, I mean, I guess it's sort of in some ways an important position where I don't have to answer, it's not public and we don't have a board really. So, I mean, so I can just go, you know, and I can take actions that are drastic. And obviously, if I make a bunch of mistakes, then Twitter won't succeed, and that'll be pretty embarrassing and sad. But as long as, like I said, as long as the bad thing average is good,

that the wins, you know, significantly outweigh the mistakes. Then, you know, it'll be a great future. And I think I'm very optimistic about where things headed. I think a lot of people want to talk about, or understand Elon, your position on freedom of speech and your principles. I'm curious, you've been pretty upfront about it. How do you think about it? Post acquisition. You know, what speech should be allowed in the platform?

Kanye came back. He just went insane. Is the count got revoked? What have you learned, I guess? Now that you own it, because you must be getting a lot of inbound from people asking you, hey, how are decisions going to be made, et cetera. You've been clear, transparency is super important in this, but what are your thoughts on free speech and speech on a platform like this? Well, I mean, the general principle I think is that we should hew close to the law in any given country. So the law is very quite a lot by country. And so I think we should be doing free speech that's close to the law.

And that's the general principle. I think there are other things where it's like, okay, we, for example, if you're an advertiser, you don't want to nest, you don't want your ad, like, let's say it's a family movie, next to some NSFW content, even if that content is text. You know, it's like, that's probably, that's, we don't, you know, so, so that's, so that's, so that's, you know, part of what, you know, like, we're like, so there's, there's more of an allowance for what's, what's, what's my call hate speech on the system, but it's just, it's not going to be promoted. It's not, like, it's, we're not going to be recommending hate speech. It's a risk of stating the obvious. And we're not going to monetize hate speech.

So or negative speech, like that's not what advertisers want us to, you know, any, any, I think it's going to be a rare product that wants to be next to seriously negative stuff. I was just saying you referred to it as, hey, freedom of speech, but not reach, because this is a very nuanced discussion. Should this stuff be able to hit the trends, you know, in that kind of stuff? It's certainly possible that some things that will be regarded as, hey, speech will hit trends,

but I think it's gonna be relatively unusual, especially as we are doing a better job of controlling the bots and troll situation. And I do want to emphasize, like there's a difference between bots in the troll. It's like bots are fully automated accounts, but a troll phone would be where you've got like, you know, 100 people in a warehouse somewhere, each with 100 phones. And so they're actually humans. And they're going to pass a capture test, or, you know, and they can reply.

Reply because they're actually good humans, but it's actually 10,000 you know, reply, reply and they're because they're actually good humans, but it's actually 10,000 accounts that are just that are obviously not operating as real people. So that's you know, stuff like that can cause things to to to trend negatively. That's why I'm like a big proponent of having just a low cost verification capability. And yeah, so, this is definitely a work in progress. So there's, like I said, it's going to be, and I did, like one of the first things I said after the acquisition close was like, we're going to make a bunch of mistakes, but then we'll try to recover from them quickly. And that's what we're doing.

I think we've generally succeeded in recovering it from them quickly, and it's been going pretty well. Was the Pau Graham and journalists suspensions mistakes? Have you talked about this publicly? How that all kind of got resolved at the end? Yeah, I mean, the program suspension was definitely a mistake and actually called a program to apologize personally for that one. Made it. Yeah, great. Yeah. So, you know, on the journalist's front, I think the journalist's suspension were not

a mistake in that, for some reason, a bunch of journalists thought they were better than regular than everyone else, and that if they engage in doxing and break the rules in various ways, that they're not subject to suspension even though average citizen is. I think that's just messed up. The same rules should apply to people who call themselves journalists as to, you know, anyone else on the system. They shouldn't be sort of above the rules. For some reason, they thought they should be. That doesn't make sense. I don't think that's right. Yeah. And the rules being transparent and upfront, I think that's what

everybody's looking for too. Maybe some just complete clarity and transparency. And you've said from the beginning, when somebody gets suspended or the shadow banning or the sort of we tips into this really weird stuff that we discovered during or you discovered or the journalists discovered during the Twitter files, it's kind of a bummer that people are being sanctioned or shadow banned, and they don't know it. If we're going to have a system, the rules should be clear to everybody. Yeah, absolutely.

So, something I've committed to, and I think probably be able to roll that out in January, just, by the way, there is a bit of a, we are not going to be rolling out a ton of new features over Christmas or New Year's and stuff. So there's like a, you know, the next sort of feature set will probably roll out mid-slate January. And hopefully in that we can include information about YC and account is suspended or has what is called within Twitter visibility filtering, aka shadow vanting. So, and some of these things like are, like there's a lot of things that just happen accidentally where there's, you know,'s rules in the system that are

meant to detect whether someone's a sort of bot or troll or like brigading, and then an account is sort of innocently caught up in that. So like there was some accounts just suspended yesterday because they got 12 hour suspensions because someone in customers, someone in trust and safety thought that they had posted a nude photo of Hunter Biden, something. And then, Oh, no. Oh, no. But they hadn't actually done that.

I don't know. It was just basically a mistake. There were some accounts that got a 12 hour suspension yesterday for an error. And they weren't sure why it happened. It was just essentially a mistake with Twitter customer support that was corrected. Elon, let me ask you just a slightly broader question. One of the things we just talked about was

the regime change that's happened where we all have to act differently now that the risk-free rate is probably going to get to 5%. And I'm just curious across all your businesses. So Twitter, yes, but really more importantly, Tesla SpaceX, are there decisions that you will make differently or not at all or will make that you wouldn't have made otherwise in this new regime? And how often do you think about that kind of stuff? Well, I think it's more like it does seem like we're headed into a recession here in 2023. The magnitude of that recession is debatable, but I think it's at least a light moderate recession potentially.

It's on the order of 2009. So, I think it's wise to kind of like Prepare for the worst hope for the best prepare for the worst Don't get too adventurous like like watch out for margin debt Like I would really advise people to not have a margin debt in a volatile stock market and You know From a cash standpoint, keep powder dry.

You can get some pretty extreme things happening in a down market. Like Brett Johnson, who is a CFO, his is a CFO of SpaceX, was at Broadcom in 2000. And he said that, and that's a good company making good products And he said the the from from peak to trough I think in less than 12 months Broadcom went down 97% So like even if you had a small margin loan there you got you got crushed It subsequently recovered and I think you know to too much higher levels, but It's subsequently recovered and I think you know, to too much higher levels, but you know, if there's like mass panic in the stock market, then you've got to be really be careful about

margin debt. So, but I mean, this is just, as we know, the economy is cyclic. So, you know, you, and it's somewhat overdue for a recession. And my best guess is that, you know, we have sort of stormy times for a year to a year and a half and then things start to, dawn breaks roughly in Q2, 24, if I would get, that's like my best guess.

Recessions don't, like, booms don't last forever, but neither do recessions. And it's a 14 year boom. So a six quarter recession seems like, that made actually bounce out the last time. It was what, four or five quarters. So it's not easy. Hey, the Twitter files.

How much longer are these gonna go on? It seems like every week another drop and these are pretty controversial. How much longer are the Twitter files gonna go on in your mind? Yeah. And maybe why is this important to you to make sure that people understand the stuff?

Yeah. I think it's important to like if we're going to be trusted in the future to kind of clear the decks before stuff that's happened in the past. So I mean to be totally frank, almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true. Almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true. Is there a conspiracy theory about Twitter that didn't turn out to be true? So far, they've all turned out to be true. And if not, more true than people thought. Is there a part of the files that really shocked you more than the rest of them? Of the things that have been disclosed?

Of all of these things, is there something that really sticks out more than the rest of them. I got the things that have been disclosed of all of these things is there something that really sticks out with you as like holy shit, I had no idea this was happening. Or as the whole thing, just a big dumpster fire and we're just looking at one huge thing. You know, like siops versus the Hunter Biden thing versus the... Yeah.

The number of FBI people involved, that was pretty shocking. FBI stuff is pretty intense. Yeah, the side-up stuff to me was probably the one that was the most insidious. Like the rest of it, I could think of like, you know, a bunch of overzealous lips got used. Yeah. Got it, you know what I mean?

Sure, sure. But to have like a secure skiff that essentially sends things that, you know, government agents want the populist to basically think, seems like out of a really bad dystopian novel. And then it turns out it existed. And then also the thing is, it couldn't have just existed at Twitter.

So what are we gonna do about all the other places where this shit's happened? YouTube, Facebook, yeah. Yeah, that's right. It did, none of it seemed that surprising to me. I mean, I don't know, maybe I just believed all the conspiracy theories, but I've also been inside some of these companies and seen how they operate. So honestly, none of it was a surprise to me.

Was it a big shock to you, Elon? Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,

wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, shadow banding, although they denied it. But did you really suspect that the FBI was playing a role in flagging content for these companies to take down? If I get that blew me away. Concentrate that's got nothing to do with terrorism. Yeah, they're not investigating crimes. There's no crime. Right.

Yeah, they're literally flagged satire. Maybe they didn't get the joke. I don't know. They don't seem to be a humor driven group, but they don't seem to have the best senses of humor. But aren't they supposed to get warrants? Isn't that how it's supposed to work in a democracy? They want information. They're not using their phones. Yeah, they're all friends.

That's the thing that's troubling to me. Put yourself on either side of the extremes. We have Michael Schellenberger here who broke the FBI story in the Twitter file. So let's look to him and to see, we can, because I think maybe the audience isn't caught up on like what was discovered. So you are not allowed to follow Elon Musk.

That doesn't seem fair. Hey guys. Hey Michael Schellenberger. I had back to work. So thanks. See you later. See you later. Thank you. Thanks. Hey guys. See you later. See you later.

Thanks. Hey, guys. Hey, Michael. How are you? I'm good. Just a quick question for you. Michael, first of all, who makes that sweater? I'll send you mine, man.

Do you want it? Or are you making fun of it? No, I'm asking. You're the master of sweaters. I got a high praise from you, brother. I praise. I'm asking. Just briefly, Michael, isn't the FBI supposed to get warrants to take actions with I'm just high praise from you brother, high praise. Muscat, there's multiple issues relating to FBI that I think have to be

unpacked a bit. But the first one is that yeah, FBI was constantly pushing the boundaries of what is legally and ethically acceptable in terms of requesting information. Now, I think what you saw over the last three weeks was a shift and I think our own understanding that we did see more pushback from Twitter executives against FBI and some alarm bells being wrong in terms of the requests that were being made from the intelligence community. But these guys were really persistent. They kept asking for more. They kept getting more and more cooperation.

It's very troubling. It does look like Congress is going to look into this, the two heads of the committees that are tasked with this have said that they're going to look into it next year. I think the other thing though that we saw that I think is more troubling was this persistent effort to basically communicate to Twitter executives, but also to news media, national security correspondence, that there was this heavy foreign infiltration going on, this Russian disinformation. And it appeared to me looking at all the evidence that we saw from within Twitter and from

outside of it, that this was pretty organized effort to convince key executives at Twitter and Facebook, but also these key reporters that they should expect a hack and leak operation sometime right before the elections having to do with Hunter Biden. I find that very suspicious. Can I make an observation? I think that maybe what we're finding out is that the mainstream media tried to go back to its 1980 Cold War playbook and turn Russian to a boogeyman,

but as we're seeing in the Ukraine war, you know, they're not nearly the formidable foe that we thought they were. And so it could probably be the case that in 2016, they were as inept technically as they are militarily right now. And so we may have just built up this monster they are militarily right now. And so we may have just built up this monster that is kind of more like a much smaller thing to be worried about. And we all ran with it because we had no evidence. But the Ukraine-Russia war is evidence that this highly sophisticated war machine and propaganda machine is not that good at their job. Right. Yeah, I mean, I think that what's there's a lot of interest that were being served by hyping the so-called Russian misinformation threat. I mean, one of them was just to simply explain away the Trump phenomenon as a consequence of foreign interference.

Certainly the people that ran Hillary Clinton's campaign had an interest in doing that. But then you saw it become a sort of way, I think, to condition people for the release of the Biden laptop. And again, we can't prove that, but it is striking that the Yol Roth, this means Twitter executive, who I think was the object of this misinformation campaign, testified under oath that he was being bombarded with these messages all throughout 2020 that they should expect some sort of a hack and leak operation. information campaign testified under oath that he was being bombarded with these messages

all throughout 2020 that they should expect some sort of a hack and leak operation so that when the New York Post finally did report on that computer in 2014, it was briefly censored by Twitter, but I think more importantly, it was discredited in the minds of many voters, including myself. I really didn't think that that laptop was what they said it was, and it turned out that it was. So I do think there's a real troubling pattern of behavior by both the FBI agents, but also by the former FBI executives, including the deputy chief of staff and the chief counsel from FBI that were at Twitter as executives at the time. And in fairness, Michael, this has

been brought up many times. But I just would like your take on it because you're a lifelong Democrat, correct? Until until until last year. Great. So it would, you know, just less anybody think that you are like some Maga supporter here. Just blew my sweater. Exactly. This was all in the backdrop of Trump asking for the Russians, you know, during that debate

to hack Hillary for him interfering with Solansky and trying to get him to give dirt on Biden. And the fact that Hunter Biden was obviously dirty. So to expect a hack, there was massive precedent for it. So that's set the stage for this, correct? For sure. And there is definitely that going on. And maybe that's all there was to it.

It is just striking, of course, because, and I didn't even mention in my, this was by the way, this is Twitter thread, part seven that I did on this issue. I didn't even get into the fact that, within a few days, the many former senior heads of intelligence organizations and others came out and said that it was the result

of a Russian disinformation campaign. So yeah, sure, I guess we could find some other explanation for it, whether it was innocent or coordinated, but it is striking. Also, I think the other thing that we found was the contrast between the threat inflation and what Twitter was finding themselves. I mean, you know, you'll repeatedly, you'll Roth would respond to FBI that, yeah, we looked into these accounts that you mentioned and they were all very low follower accounts with very little activity.

So they just weren't finding very much foreign influence on the Twitter platform. And so I just think it was grossly inflated, either for kind of good reasons or bad reasons, I would say. Yeah. And it's, there's no perfect way to police this stuff, obviously. And okay, well listen, we appreciate your reporting.

Thanks for doing it. And if you haven't read Michael's book, San Francisco, you did some great reporting there as well. And continue success in your investigative journalism. Thank you, Michael. Thanks, guys. I appreciate it. All right, Michael. Sorry. Oh, lost him. Sorry. He's still here.

Hey, you did an interview on that. I think I saw it on YouTube or something where you interviewed someone who was homeless in San Francisco and they were addicted to drugs and they kind of said some narrative about how they were in this condition because San Francisco basically pays them to be homeless and pays them to do drugs on the street. Did that ever get published and did that come out because it was such a compelling couple of minutes

that you got on tape there. It really, for me, sent home a message of how far kind of progressive policies can take a society, and it's such a beacon for where things might go as other people start to think about adopting similar policies around the world, which is why I thought it was such important reporting. Whatever happened with that, and where can folks see that because it was such a moving interview for me. Yeah, if you just Google Michael Schellenberger YouTube homeless, you'll be able to find all my videos. There's a lot of them that we did with people on the street. All of them, of course, people asking and wanting to do them.

But yeah, I mean, I also wrote about that in my book, which is basically a San Francisco pays cash welfare payment of somewhere between six to seven hundred dollars. Plus, you can get two two dollars in food stamps, and a lot of people sadly use that to maintain their addiction. And this gentleman, James, with the tattoos on his face, was very honest about how he was playing the system. In fact, he was himself. We found this increasingly kind of horrified by the incentives that San Francisco was creating

for people to live on the streets and live on the streets in their in their addictions. So yeah, you can find that on YouTube. So many people say incentives drive behavior and unfortunately these policies all came from a good place from a kind heart and the idea that we could help people in need and unfortunately the way that the incentives get structured they can actually cause more harm than good. It's such an important lesson. I just wanted to say that because I think you're reporting on this really hit that home. So thanks for doing that. I think it's really important because we have we have to do the right thing for people, but we also have to be careful that the policies are done in the right way. So I think it's so well said, Friedberg, because when you're Michael and I

just think you're very courageous for doing it because it's very easy for somebody to say, oh, well, you are being callous. The truth is incentives matter. And we saw, we've seen this over and over again. If you pay for something, you get more of it. And really, San Francisco is bearing the burden. I think this is what your book and a lot of the videos you've made, at least the message I got was San Francisco has the lowest price of drugs, the lowest enforcement, and the most incentives. Therefore, they suffer because every person who is addicted comes here because they speak to each other and 90% of the people who are in San Francisco are here because we have created an incentive structure. Is that directly correct as we wrap here? Yeah, 100% correct. Including just the non-enforcement of laws against sleeping on the sidewalk,

doing drugs in public. Now, I mean, ultimately, three times more people die living outside as an unsheltered, homeless person rather than being in a shelter. And for me, that's all you need to know, to know that you, we cannot allow our brothers and sisters to sleep on the street, no matter how desperate they sound, about wanting to avoid going inside. It's three times deadlier to be on the street than inside. So the compassionate thing is to force people into housing.

Yes. That's a very tough for people to say, but you know, because you're, we have this perception that people have freedom and they should have the right to do this. But a person who's taking a fentanyl in your research is not thinking correctly. And if it was any family member of ours, we would not want them to make that decision for themselves. We'd want somebody else to make that decision for them, correct? Abs. I would want that from, if I was on the street so desperate that I was smoking fentanyl and breaking multiple laws every day, of course, I would want to be hospitalized.

And usually, people overcome their addiction. That's the good news. We always leave out of it, but it is possible. People do overcome their addiction all the time, but they often need some intervention from family and friends. And if that's too late for that, then you need the intervention from the city. All right, Michael. Thank you, Michael. Appreciate it. So as we get back to the All-in News Network, we've now gone 24 hours a day. The All news network has launched. We'll just have a road to sit at various offices throughout Silicon Valley, letting executives and CEOs and sound. Just drop it.

Imagine we did like a 12 hour marathon show for charity. We're just people showed up and we did a, what do they call those on TV? What is the charity? Telephone. Telephone. Telephone. Telephone. Yeah, no, no, just. Telephone. Telephone. Telephone.

Telephone. Yeah. No, no, just a, yeah, telephone. J. Cal has to stop fly commercial. We'll do a telephone. Hey, Saks, thank you for setting up those amazing drop-ins. Well done. Yeah, thanks, Saks. Thanks, Saks. Thanks, Saks. That's your jacket. That's a great jacket. Is that custom? That is an ESAI. All Stewart.

ESAI. This is the Christmas or holiday jacket. Who is it by ESAA? It's Valentino. All right, well, that's nice also. Okay, that's not East IA, but okay. Let's keep going here. We gotta go to the lightning round. All right, let's move. Biggest flash in the pan, we were, was our last.

I went with crypto, pretty easy to say that. I'm not gonna give myself a big high five, but crypto was. Wait, what did you guys think of the Elon conversation real quick? Well, it's very talkative. And he's anything interesting or surprising for you? I mean, he said the biggest thing that people want to make sure to avoid is margin debt.

I know that was interesting. He's working hard. And he's just such a product-a-focus guy. He just gets his, he's like so deeply into it. It's like, yeah, just do the thing you got to do. He's got to do it. Ultimately product wins, right, Friedberg? If anything's going on, it's product.

It's product. That's it. So I mean, if anything's going on, oh my God, of course, every year, that's it, that's it. Yeah. So, I mean, and then, you know, products are made by teams. So what I think is distinctly different here, I'm just giving my personal opinion, I don't know what for Microsoft teams. No, no, no, teams make products. And so what I just wanna say here is,

you know, like the signature stuff for teams. I guess you're stuck. No, that, I'm not, you know, don't trigger the bundle. But I just wanna say, you know, like, this is a takeover as opposed to building a company from scratch. He's had to assemble a team and then work at this incredible product pace. And I think those two things are starting to click. Week six years is going to look very different than week the first six weeks.

So, yeah, the products are really looking awesome. And it was nice to give me that shout out on the, you know on the affiliate badges, but I'll just give a shout out to. Oh, I didn't hear it. What was it? Oh, well, he gave me some credit for the affiliate badges, but I wanted to give credit to the PMs who approached me about that idea. That's true.

I win again. Okay, fine, where? The truth is, there were a lot of questions. Let me give credit to the actual PMs, Evan Jones and Patrick Traeger who they approached me about this idea they had and then I helped, you know, give it some momentum. Here's the truth. When Dave and I spent the first couple of weeks there, now that it's a little more public, you know, it's been on the program. What we found over and over again was that there

were great features that were ready to be released, that were being held back by management. And there were brilliant people with all the ideas that you think should to be released, that were being held back by management. And there were brilliant people with all the ideas that you think should have been released, and they just weren't allowed to release a lot of these products. Why? Who knows? But now that ease in charge, I think you'll see the product cycle

is gonna go much quicker. The most important thing I saw, which is such an important lesson for anyone running a business in Silicon Valley, is that the pace of decision-making matters far more than the accuracy of decision-making. It's always been like one of my three big models for like start up.

Say more about that for entrepreneurs. Yeah, for me, like my number one, like my three things are always like grit, biased action and then narrative. But like biased action, the rate at which you can make decisions is a far greater predictor of success than the accuracy of the decisions you do make. And so you have to be willing to embrace failure,

you have to be willing to make decisions that could result in something not being done correctly or making a mistake, and even getting embarrassed on the internet, you know, by making mistakes and having to call people like Paul Graham and apologize for them. And that was a big moment.

But as a business scales, as professional managers are brought in, their incentive is to not make mistakes. Their incentive is to do things that are predictably going to work and are predictably not going to fail, and therefore they avoid taking the risks and they reduce the rate of action, the rate of decision-making. And that's why so many businesses ultimately don't scale, pass some sort of inflection point, or when founders that are willing to push that envelope step out, everything starts to fall apart. And it's so critically important, I think, to look at that as being, I think Elon's defining trait and characteristics that, regardless of the scale of the organization in the enterprise,

he's still willing to act with that level of bias to action that you typically see in a small startup. Okay. And put his reputation at risk. Yeah. Just a little bit. Just a little bit. I sat in a meeting yesterday. He said that if we're not rolling back 10% of the time, we haven't pushed hard enough.

Right. Wonderful. So I mean, if you're never rolling anything back because you never make a mistake, maybe you're just not moving fast enough. You don't have enough of bias. You're not ambitious enough. You're not fast enough of a bias towards action. You're too afraid of making a mistake.

But here's what's so interesting about the views feature is that a bunch of websites, I think it started because Instagram did a bunch of apps deprecated, you know, likes because they felt that it was too, it was part of this negative cycle and So they they took all this stuff away and basically views is going sort of back in that direction and giving more granularity in terms of Outside in social engagement on a post Which is I think interesting to see it's happening in a moment where all these other sites and apps are actually going in the opposite direction Well, it's it's like a standard feature YouTube, and it's very powerful for YouTube's network effects, because it shows you how many views you get.

So it discourages people from using other sites, because you know you get the most distribution on YouTube. So it's weird that other social networks don't want to follow suit. I mean, in one hour, this is... No, they've had it, but they deprecated. That's what's so interesting. But I guess, guess you know my point is we've only had this feature for an hour and i didn't realize how much distribution my tweets were

getting and it definitely undermines my incentive to want to go use some other platform when i see the distribution i'm getting on twitter well if you're getting ten times more distribution than the new york times you know what's going to happen is people stop listening and reading the well i mean this is sort of like this podcast itself like i, I mean, people ask us to go. And my point is we have to rely on social proof and anecdotes about the actual scale and the breadth and the reach because it's impossible for us to get one holistic view that shows across all of these different modalities,

whether it's Spotify or Apple podcasts or YouTube, how many people listen or watch. And, you added all up and you know we think it's in this You know sort of three to five million range of people But if you just had a numerical canonical number that was irrefutable you just run over everybody This turns it into a meritocracy. This is gonna be terrifying to some blue check marks when they see that the people who they report on get 10 times as many views as they do. Which is why when people will show on-handity. Look at Sean Hannity.

Go to Sean Hannity's profile. And for the number of followers he has help authentically engage his audience. It's all bots, it's all trolls, it's all nobody's. I looked at Mitt Romney just put out a video, whatever. In the first half hour he had 100,000 views. Every politician who starts seeing this is gonna go, wait a second.

I mean, the world is still... I'm getting more views here than I am on MSNBC or Fox. The world is on more rational place if Mitt Romney actually has more influence than Sean Hannity. Let's hope, okay, let's move on. We gotta get through this quickly.

It's our longest episode ever. Here we go. We are gonna do next up, it's very, this is a very important category. Best CEO of 2022. In 2021, I went with Frank Slootman and Elon Musk. Shemoth went with Satya Nadella. Saks went with Brian Armstrong and Freeberg went with Jack Dorsey. Now we go on to 2020, D2, SACS. Who? Everybody wants to know, SACS is best CEO of 2022. Go ahead, SACS.

Every founder took my advice to get leaners so down their burn, create runway, whether the storm down, you know, the public. So you're giving a generic answer, not a person. Yeah, exactly. I mean, look, I think actually a lot of the names, a lot of the names, well, here's the problem is that,

you know, yeah, can I finish Jake? The names that you mentioned from last year would be the top candidates for this year. I mean, I think Sachin and Adela had a good year. Obviously, what Elon's doing, we just talked about, it's amazing, Brian Armstrong, I think, the stock hasn't done great, but he's been a strong CEO. But I don't want to repeat the same names.

I think that, you't done great, but he's been a strong CEO. But I don't want to repeat the same names. I think that every CEO who responded to the regime change by cutting costs, getting a leaner, extending runway, I think it deserves to be on this list. And unfortunately, a lot of them are just resisting and they're just not yet taking the medicine. Or they've been taking the medicine in little drips and drabs instead of just like swallowing at hole and getting it move on. Yeah, just drink the whole two tablespoons of medicine, don't sip it, you got to just take it. It's not getting better.

I mean, the stock market today should be a wake up call. I mean, this is one of the worst days in the market the whole year. So things are getting worse before they're getting better. Jamath, who is your best CEO there? Well, the numerical answer is Vicki Hollab, who's the CEO of Occidental Petroleum. Stocks up like 140% this year. It's technically the best performing stock of the year. $63 billion company.

But that's just a numerical answer. Who I, I actually want to double down on David's answer, Xaxx's answer, because I agree with that. I have been guiding our portfolio company CEOs to be at cashflow break even now or extend runway to Q1 2025. And there are 25. Yes, because I, I mean, I think you want to, while you want to, I kind of roughly in the same place,

we have been for a while, which is like, you know, mid 24 is when the recession ends and you need to give yourself two to three quarters of buffers so that you can go and raise around, which takes a quarter to two quarters. And once you start to get kind of get escaped lossy out of a recession, having money through end of Q1 2025, I think is a minimum requirement. And of the companies that I think were the most precariously positioned, there were five of them that got their acts together and really did it. But these are all CEOs of companies that, if I said them, you would know some of them.

But I do agree with David. I think the CEO that bit the bullet. So maybe publicly what I would say is, you know, the CEO of Karna deserves a huge, you know, metal for having the courage to do it before anybody else did the CEO of Checkout.com just took a huge right down. These CEOs are making sure their companies survive. Friedberg, best CEO 2022. My vote for best CEO 2022.

My vote for best CEO is Warren Buffett, and I think it is just simple arithmetic. He has for years and now for decades proven himself to be just not just an exceptional investor, stockpaker, whatever the kind of typical quip is about what he does for a living. But I think what's so extraordinary about Buffett is that regardless of the market conditions, he can remain steadfast in his intent and in his mission, and he doesn't waver. He doesn't take an active role in ranting and complaining about markets and politics. I think that that's what makes him such an extraordinary leader. He stays within his zone of competence.

He doesn't do things that he doesn't know about. He doesn't let the macro drive him and cause him to be kind of, you know, affected by it. And he says, this is what I know how to do. This is what I can do. And that is all that he does do. And he does it so exceptionally well. And to Chamos point, he is the largest shareholder of Occidental Petroleum,

along with many other incredible businesses. And I think he's proven in a market like we just had this year, why he is kind of the most extraordinary CEO, or one of the most extraordinary CEOs, but one of the best kind of capital allocators of all time. I'm going to go in a similar fashion as Chimoff and Sacks and go with the money losing CEOs who have

dedicated themselves to free cash flow and to getting to profitability from the last cycle Airbnb and Uber were the money losers. And now Airbnb is my number one. They become a money printer. They are now making bank. And they're still growing very quickly. And then Uber, I put it in my second, they need to do another riff,

they need to cut some expenses, but they too are hitting the free cash flow and the network effects. So I'm giving it to Chesky and then Dora. One and two, okay, let's keep moving. Best investor for me, I'm going with the investors, like a general category, who are demanding governance

and doing diligence again, or who never stopped. Let me say it that way. There's a generation of investors who've raised their funds in the last five years and didn't do diligence, didn't demand board seats, didn't demand boards. Those idiots are now paying the price and they created a lot of this mess of entitlement and a lack of governance. I want to give a shout out to the Bill Gurley's of the world who fought for governance and fought for diligence in the face of being told, okay, boom, or you don't get it. Who do you have best investors, Chimoff Polly Hoppatea?

I will pick the, what are called the pot shops. So these are folks that have strategies where they have hundreds of investing pods underneath the umbrella and they have this very sophisticated Risking for structure. So this is what Ken Griffin owns in Citadel. This is what Izzy Ignolinder owns in millennium Revan Howard is another one De Shaws another one. So they have all kinds of strategies, but that are essentially run by computers that allocate risk, you know, scale you up, scale you back, turn you on, turn you off, fire you overnight. And those strategies as a whole ran over the market this year.

They were the best performers. They are giving back billions of dollars. They've generated double digit positive returns. They're raising their fees in some cases. Some of these folks are moving their annual fee up to 4% a year. They're carrying up to 40% a year. Incredibly, incredibly well-run performance businesses. They were by and away the best investors this year. Okay, we're gonna go lightning round from here. Sacks, do you have a best investor? Yeah, I said Stan Druckenmiller.

He, you know, through a call last year, he predicted that inflation would be lasting. This was a spring of 2021 when transitory was the word of the day. This year, he predicted that bear market rally we had in July and August. And I remember back at the coach who summoned in May, they were around that time he was interviewed and he basically was saying that as soon as there was a bear market rally over the summer that he would then put a short position on. I

don't know if he actually did that, but he said he was gonna do that. And then it turns out that the summer rally that we had was a dead cat bounce. So he was right about that. And now he is predicting a hard landing in 2023 with a deeper recession than many expect. So sadly, I suspect he may be right yet again. Friedberg, best investor for you, 2022. Yeah, I had Druck and Miller.

I indicated that he's been doing interviews pretty much every quarter for the last two years and he's been pounding the table, telling everyone what's going to happen and it all happened. And even told people the trades in mid-2021, he said he was short, long-dated treasuries and he was long commodities. And if you had put those two trades on at that time and held them to today, you would have made a fortune. And so I think he's extraordinary in his ability to kind of see macro in a way that others

don't, but also to take extremely brave action with his portfolio. He's renowned for how big the bets are that he makes and how quickly he can change his mind when he's wrong and make another big bet to instill and get himself out of the hole. He's incredible. So I definitely give it to Stanley Gruck and Melo this year. When each 21 we did our best turn around. I picked Disney, Jamoth Ford, freeberg. We were, do we stack this category?

We're going to do what about the worst investor of 2022? Can we do that? Good, Jamoth. You want to freestyle? Tell us your worst investor of 2022. I mean, I'll put myself in the category along with anybody else who was long tech based Dave Nick. If you can just bring please back up this capital asset pricing model. Any of us that didn't understand this got run over this year. And just to put some very specific numbers here,

there was a decent little tweet thread that Elon was a part of where they actually calculated what the expected rate of return of Tesla was. And it turned out to be almost 14% a year. And so, you know, when you start to compound 14% over 3, 4, 5 years, these numbers get very big, very quickly. And the reason why is that it has a huge beta, and we're in a world now where the risk

rate is quite high. So all of us benefited from this equation essentially being upside down for the last 15 years. And all of us who were over allocated into things that benefited from those dynamics, frankly got run over this year. So we were, as a class, the worst investors of 2022. Okay. Here we go. Let's do our best turnaround. I am going to go with for me, it's meta. They were losing money, hand over fist, they refused to do a rift, and then finally, Bestie Brad Gersner said, let's get fit. He did a memo. And finally, finally, Zuckerberg made some cuts. Reportedly, rumors, he's making a 15, 10 or 15% cut

I heard in the back channels right now based on performance, so he's not calling it a riff or a layoff, you're just gonna cut the bottom, 10 or 15% again. So I think Zuck's gonna turn it around, anybody have a best turnaround. So you're saying Zuck mission accomplished. You mean Zuck turned around this year?

I'm going with meta. So your answer is meta was turned around by Zuck this year? Yes. Got down to $85 and now they're up at what, what, what, 110, 115? Yes, he turned it around at the end of the year. It was like a hell-married at the end of the year. He's turned it around.

I think he's going to continue to. Yes, that is my position. Well, that's good. Listen, I bought the stock at 94. Go with that, Jacob. Okay. So if we're talking about very partial turn rounds here, I would say that you can measure the turn around as of October 24th to now.

Yes, exactly. So San Francisco is still overall a mess, but there were a few positive events that happened over the past year. And since we were looking back, we should call these out. So first of all, back, this is towards the beginning of the year, we were called three members of the school board, most particularly Alison Collins. Remember her, this was done by something like a 70, 30 margin and 80, 20 on Collins. This was a school board that had dragged its feet on school reopenings.

They destroyed the merit-based low-high school. They wasted hours of meetings on a silly plan to remove the names of names like Abraham Lincoln from the schools. In any event, they were removed. Then, Jake, how you refer to this, we got Chesa Boudin recalled, by a 6040 margin, asked San Francisco DA. This was the DA who's agenda was decarceration. He tried to release as many repeat offenders as possible. The voters San Francisco had enough. And then most recently, the far less supervisor Gordon Mar just got rejected by his own community this November. And the new tough DA, Brooke Jenkins got reelected in her own right after being appointed by London Breed. rejected by his own community this November. And the new tough DA broke Jenkins,

got reelected in her own right after being appointed by London Breed. So there's still a long way to go in San Francisco, but there are definitely some green shoots. Good start. That the electorate here has had enough and is looking for the, let's say called the centrist Democrats,

as opposed to the radicals. Okay, we're in the lightning round here. We're in hour three of the All-in podcast marathon, this telephone. Shmoth, you got a best turnaround for 2022. Hard hard hard one to give. So any green shoots for 2022 is sacks would say. No, I mean, the everything is just a disaster.

Great. Freeberg, anything that you have, there may be no turnaround award until 2025. Fine, okay, yeah, we're a little split on this freeberg, you got anything. Any questions? You're incisive fucking viewpoint and I'll pick Zuck and Meta, that made so much sense.

I bought it at 94, it's at 117, it's one of my best J-trades. I'm gonna take it. Didn't you also say Disney was your pick of the year or something? I'm buying more. I'm buying more. I'm buying more. This is better than the Bitcoin foyer.

I'm telling you, Disney wonner, which you talked about before. And Facebook are three of my big ones. Let's say worse, too, being here. Well, I think, look, given that this is supposed to be the year 2022, I mean, you gotta say that. Yes, in the S-BF be the year 2022, I mean, you got to say that. Yes. In 2035, you also have to ask BF was the winner of this hands down.

Okay. Congratulations to SBF. You are consensus worst human being for this year. I mean, not ever, but just for this year. Right. Yeah. We all hate you equally. Okay. Who's, who's number two? Why do you hate him?

Why do I hate him? Because all those people lost their money. And you know, there's some, it's causing chaos. I feel terrible for all these people who lost money. That's why I hate him? Why do I hate him because all those people lost their money and you know there's some it's causing chaos. I feel terrible for all these people who lost money. That's why I hate him. Oh, it's disgusting. Did you see that? Did you see the two guys copped to please Caroline Ellison and Gary? They fled like pancakes. They flipped and but it turns out that they actually did engineer a backdoor into FTX and Alina has been doing this for years. Oh my God. Oh my God. That's game over.

You're getting 10 years. He's getting live game over. Well, they're into a talk about that interesting defense strategy that we were discussing in the chat. Oh, yeah. That apparently I think this is actually a fascinating defense strategy. I think this is their own shot. one of our best He's had this theory that he was prescribed two prescription drugs one was at all. What was the other one called? This was a He said the patch is it's a drug I wasn't familiar with I guess it's a patch But when you combine these two things apparently it basically shuts down or kills the part of your brain that

Apparently, it basically shuts down or kills the part of your brain that deals with inhibition. Inhibition. It's cocaine. Yeah. What if his defense strategy was, yeah, like only an insane person would do this. And I was acting insane because I was prescribed these drugs that had these drug conflicts and it like killed part of my brain. I mean, what every criminal on Wall Street said cocaine is my defense. But this you could say he was maybe he was legally prescribed if you get some of the prescription. By the way, I'm not saying this should get him off. I'm just we're basically workshopping. What is only shot of his defense would be, right? Well, and think about it, Sacks. He acted manic after FTX collapsed. So that mania of doing 20 Twitter spaces would be evidence.

There's something so insane about what he did, right? It's almost like a prescribed insanity defense. Like I was presiding a drunk combination that made me insane. Anybody have a most low sum company as we wrap? The only way that you could come up with that, it's like you'd have to have two parents that were like law professors or something. Right, most low sum company F.T.

What if Mrs. his defense, you know? Yeah, my parents, boohoo. No, no, no, no, he'll claim insanity, Jake Al. He'll say, of course. And they'll have a, I mean, do we think that his parents aren't gonna help his defense? You know, at this point, this kid's gotta go away for life.

That's it. You think life. Wow. I think it's gotta be life. I think it's gotta be 30 plus years. I mean, it's just gonna be billions of dollars. What kind of justice system do we have when people go away for 20, 30,

40 years per billion, would you sentence a decade per billion, at least? Yeah, I mean, just you got a proportional. Sacks, you got to don't you think that just a session needs to look at other people who are in jail for selling cocaine, for selling marijuana, for for robbing a convenience store, they'll put somebody away for robbing a convenience store for a decade or two. Where do they get to put him in jail for just because somebody came in with a gun and robbed a convenience store, They'll put somebody away for robbing a convenience store for a decade or two. Where do they gonna put him in jail for?

Just because somebody came in with a gun and robbed a convenience store, they get 20 years, this kid's gonna get off. Screw that look, I think, what do you guys think the over under is here? You think it's a lot? I'll set it at 35 years. I think 30.

I'll take the over. I'll take 30. I think 30 is the over under. I think this is made off. I said a good line then. Which one is for sure? I think this is made off. No, I agree. I agree over on 30. I think it take 30. I think this is made off. I said a good line then. I think this is made off. I agree. I think it's going to be a hundred, multiple hundreds of years sentence. I agree.

And you'll be gone for life. I think it's going to be life, but I said a good line. Okay. Most low. Some company is FTX. Anybody want to go for a second? No, let's keep moving. No, I'll add one.

I'm going to give my last year I gave it to Tyson Foods, one of the largest slaughterer of animals on earth. This year, I'm going to give it to a company called Inotiv, I-N-O-T-I-V. This is the company that was busted by the feds for their animal abuse in their dog breeding facility, where 4,000 beagles were rescued, one of which I adopted. And this is a publicly created company, stocks down 90-some-odd percent, which I'm thrilled to see terrible business, awful, awful, kind of, you know, inhumane behavior.

And so I want to kind of give them a special shout-out this year. Look at you, and you're getting the vurchir signaling points of rescuing the dog to increase your two factor amongst besties. Well done. Max Q-factor. Max. Max Q factor. Yeah. Anybody else have a loathsome? Yes. I'd like to pick this company Zibu Babuzza, which destroyed the environment for a bunch of endangered species that I would otherwise have used for various furkels for micewaters and such. Yes. And I would like to go with Blabbly, Blabbly, Blu, which was torturing puppies,

18 of which I rescued, and I am now, have them in the J-Cal puppy rescue. I am the most sensitive and caring person. Also, I would like to add C-World. I am in the process of raising money to build bigger pools to eventually release all the orcas in captivity. That is my new focus for next year. Okay. Moving on. Oh God. Do we want to do best meme? Do we want to do best new tech? I'll do best new tech. I don't have the best meme. I'm going with fusion for best new tech. I'm going with, I'm going to go with chat GPT. I think what

was so impressive about chat GPT and the experience that everyone's had using it is that it really for the first time I think elucidated where these kind of machine learning tools can take us and what the kind of new product experience can be, what generative AI can yield things beyond I think the scope of what a lot of people were imagining before. So it was really so revealing and as you guys know of what a lot of people were imagining before. So it was really so revealing. And as you guys know, there's an absolute friggin' tidal wave of people trying to start companies that are leveraging tools in generative AI to kind of reinvent everything from workplace tools,

enterprise software, all the way through to media games and entertainment. So that's why I think ChatGPT was the most impressive new technology. The new tech, Tremas. Of 2020. And then Saks, Lightning Round Police, best new tech. Alpha Fold 3, which basically has almost near perfect the most impressive new technology. Best new tech, Tchaikov. Of 2020. And then Saks, lightning round, please. Best new tech.

Alpha full three, which basically has almost near perfect accuracy and protein folding. Saks, best new tech. I can't improve on the chat GPT, so yeah, let's keep rolling. Best trend, best trend in business and in the world. Mine is startups getting back and investors getting back to reality. And what I call the age of austerity, the age of focus after the age of excess, that's the best trend in our world, the age of austerity. What's your best trend for 2022? The marginal cost of energy generation and storage is now in the low single digit pennies per kilowatt

hour, which basically means that not only will energy be free and abundant, but it will, I think, over the next decade or two, create a massive peace dividend. It will rewrite our foreign policy. It will rewrite national security. That is the reason why people should care about energy transition, not necessarily climate change, although that's important. It's a distant second to keeping men and women out of war and keeping our borders safe. Well said. Anybody else have a best trend? keeping men and women out of war and keeping our borders safe. Well said, anybody else have a best trend? I'll catch up. So last year I said the creator economy,

which I think referred to all these kind of creators creating new products and businesses beyond their content. This year, I think that the trend that was, again, enabled and demonstrated through chat GPT is the narrator economy. I think this is gonna be a really important trend going forward. We'll talk about it in the prediction episode. But I think the idea that people are, and they're starting to experience this and using

chat GPT and Dolly and other kind of generative AI tools is how much you can kind of narrate the product you want to see created and have it created for you on the fly. And I think that that's a really kind of powerful mind shift for people and friendship for people. And I think it really starts to change a lot of the way that people behave, entertain themselves, businesses operate and so on. So I'd call it the narrator economy. And I think it's really kind of starting to emerge. Okay. Do you have a trend? Sax. Yeah, I would say best trend is the growing realization that the corporate media is failing,

it does not tell the truth. It has an agenda. More and more people are opting out of it is the growing realization that the corporate media is failing, it does not tell the truth, it has an agenda, more and more people are opting out of it and going with independent media, I think, you know, what Elon mentioned, where we're gonna start holding these corporate journalists the same standard on Twitter as regular citizens, they're outraged by that,

but that's a huge step in the right direction. The fact of the matter is, is that the press or the media is the prison through which reality is refracted. And if it's not giving us an accurate representation of the world, we can't begin to solve our problems. So we don't have accurate information. And I think more and more people are waking up from the matrix and realizing that we're

living in this media controlled simulation. And again, I don't think we're going to make progress until the, this power that the media seems to have over our reality gets, gets broken. Okay, let's go for worst trend. My worst trend is the Fed trying to play catch up. The Fed trying to play catch up. Sorry, buddy. The Fed trying to play catch up is the worst trend for me, overseering into the crash.

What do you got, Chimoff, for the worst trend of 2020? The worst trend was the continued, profligate spending by the federal government. We have record deficits, record debt. And this year, we're ending the year by adding another $1.65 trillion of spending that nobody can seemingly account for. It is truly the Christmas tree of Christmas trees in terms of bills. So we have not gotten religion yet around being measured in how we spend money. Good one. Worst trend, sex. Last year my worst trend was authoritarianism growing all over the world. And I think it was pretty decent prediction. This year's worst trend is the government colluding with big tech to engage in censorship. This is how they're going to do the authoritarianism. We talked about it with Shellenberger and Elon. This whole series

of revelations, notice the Twitter files. We can see this collusion, this cozier relationship between the sensors at Twitter and big tech and the bureaucrats at the FBI and DHS and Pentagon. This is a really disturbing dystopian relationship as we talked about it earlier. And I feel like we spend all this time talking about the authoritarianism in Russia and China. We seem to be obsessed with combating that and going to war with that. But we don't spend enough time talking about this growing authoritarianism at home.

The media doesn't seem to want to report on the Twitter files at all. Let's focus on stopping authoritarianism here. Well, sad Friedberg. What's your worst trend? My worst trend for 2022 is what I would call interest rate mania. And I think that this is the mania that we've been caught up in on this show that other people on our thread, people in the business community and the investing community, where everyone's obsession with did the Fed Act soon enough or late enough and That interest rates ultimately drive success or failure with building businesses and making good investments All right, the truth is when interest rates go the wrong way good investments You know can kind of strengthen their way can can can can make their way through those environments bad investments cannot

Good businesses can make their way through and bad. Bad investments cannot. Good businesses can make their way through, and bad investments cannot. And so I think our mania around the fact that interest rates and the Fed ultimately drove bad outcomes in businesses and investments is a flawed kind of assertion. And we all want to kind of get back to the drunken days where a low interest rate environment enables us all to be successful and wealthy, and I think that that's kind of change. So I think it's time for us to get away from the interest rate media and focus more on solid investing and solid business pulling. Okay, here we go, lightning round.

We got two to go. Favorite media of 2022. For me, it was Top Gun, House of the Dragon, White Lotus 2, but I'm going to pick my favorite here, something you may not have heard of, the film, TAR. I highly recommend it, but I did like those other three. Tremendously, what do you got, SACs for your favorite media of 2022? House of the film, TAR, I highly recommend it, but I did like those other three. Tremendously, what do you got, SACs for your favorite media of 2022? How's the dragon? I guess I enjoyed quite a bit, like you did.

I'll give a shout out to my movie, Dolly Land, which will be coming out next summer. If we're going to include podcast episodes, I would give a shout out to the unheard episode where Freddie Sayers interviews John Mirsheimer, the professor of inter-astral relations, he explains the origins of the Ukraine war and has some really pessimistic predictions about what might happen next. I suggest everyone watch it if they want to understand this conflict and where it may be going next year. Jamat, do you have any favorite media for 2022, you want to share?

I thought Yellowstone kicked ass. Absolutely incredible There's I think it's on Hulu But there's a show with Steve Crel of this little short series called the patient Oh, thanks about a serial serial killer that kid naps his psychologist and locks him in his basement to try to help him prevent him killing more people I thought it was really, really well done. Never have I ever, the latest season, another just brilliant offering from Mindy Kaling.

She's unbelievable. Those are probably the top ones. What do you got? Freeberg, any media? Yeah, I read a book this year that I really liked. It's called The Vital Question by a guy named Nick Lane. Someone recommended it to me. It's a biochemist and he kind of talks a little bit about the origin of life on Earth. It really ties into this idea that there are certain, call it, principles of physics

and statistics that make life predictive and predictable. But I think the way that he kind of walks through how a lot of things emerge in life and how life ultimately kind of developed on this planet are really well shown. So yeah, I give his book a shout out. It was a really good rate. So that book, the vital question is incredible. The other one that he wrote, which is called Life Ascending, those two books you must read if you don't want to be a lot in my opinion.

All right. Also, for those people who don't understand the difference between power and energy, you will learn what that is. Very good. I have two book recommendations. Putting the rabbit in the hat is Brian Cox. You may know him from Sessession. He has a great book and he reads the audiobook very enjoyable.

I'm halfway through Quentin Tarantino's cinema, speculation, and enjoying it very much. So, you will enjoy it tremendously. Okay, and now we do the Rudy Giuliani Award for Self-Emolation. This is for the person who poured lighter fluid and gasoline over themselves and lit themselves on fire for no apparent reason. I go with Kevin O'Leary,

who's secured a $15 million bag from FTX and then decided to try to defend it, 18 ways to Sunday Burning whatever reputation he had who do you have in your Rudy Giuliani award? This will be controversial for you guys. I'm gonna go with Elon Musk I don't think that Elon put himself in the position that he did With bad intentions or without paying attention. I think he's taken on a role in buying and running Twitter that is principled. And in his mind and many other people's minds, a really important role that someone needs

to play. Unfortunately, I think his reputation has gotten really hurt because of that role. He's not making a lot of friends and he's causing a lot of reputational damage He obviously had a lot of good and important things he was working on prior to taking on the additional burden of Twitter And while many people appreciate his doing it. I think that it's causing him a lot of reputational damage And so yeah, I don't mean to kind of be offensive in saying that but I Think he's he's got Hard thing to do it certainly be hard thing to do. But you're saying self-imulation free broke because he took it on himself. He could have just he took it on himself. Yeah, I'm

not saying it's just like don't do that self-interpretation. Yeah, it's not like the Rudy Giuliani idiocy. I think he's taken on the burden of doing this. And I think it's causing him a lot of reputation. It's an interpretation of the award. What do you got your mind? A sacs and tumult. Well, I mean, if if I were to interpret the award, I think the way it was originally intended, I think I got to give it to her, she'll walk her this year, unfortunately, and I wish Republicans would stop winning this award, at least her shall never gave any speeches next to a dildo shop, but

nonetheless. I'm so sorry that I'm so delighted. Sachs that you've been so self aware about the follies of the dying maga. The last throws of the Magonation. I want to find some Democrats to give this to. I want to give it to that brain dead senator from Pennsylvania. What's his name? Federman.

Federman. Federman. Thank you. I wanted to give it to Federman, but he won. So I don't know what I'm supposed to do. You know, it's like, no, listen, when a Republican self-immolates, like Rudy or Herschel or something like that, they get laughed out of town. And when the Democrat does it, like a Federman, they just get elected.

So I don't know what to say. All right, Jama, I could get any final words here. God, I mean, I got to end this episode It's gonna be the longest episode ever Who think it's poor poor producer Nick whoever assigned the papers? for the whole Search and seizure at Mar-a-Lago looks kind of like an idiot so that that was not politically astute. Okay. I think you would say the FBI then okay Poorly handled perhaps actually a great. That's a great one actually. If we're going to get serious for a second, the combination of revelations, if we're going

to look over this whole year, remember Jason, when I, I basically spoke up at the time they rated a moral logo and said that it was heavy handed and unnecessary. And now you can find that. I keep telling you guys for years, Donald Trump is an idiot, Savant minus the Savant. Why all of you guys just project all of this like insane, genius, evil, level stuff. He's not capable of that. This is a simpleton who likes attention. He stole a bunch of souvenirs that he didn't read when he was in the white position. Hasn't read now, kept in a box downstairs just to say

he had them. That's exactly right. I was the one who championed the souvenir. I know he's a souvenir guy. You said he was selling secrets to the South. No, I did not say that. I said I was a souvenir. You suggested it. I did not. I did not. No, but you were telling your cushioner and elaborate conspiracy theory. I'm saying that doesn't look like a conspiracy theory it's not a conspiracy theory when you do it. And, and, guys, and this is the same person that basically in the beginning of his presidential campaign

in 2016, in front of Hillary Clinton, said, absolutely, I bend the laws that you created, the tax laws to my favor because I'm not stupid when she called him a tax dodger. And it turns out after all these years, he was telling the truth. He basically once again, the show ends with Trump. He's been a great 2022. No, but honestly, like, like, did we learn anything except that these tax laws are egregiously stupid? And the only people that are consistently guaranteed

to make money in these tax laws are real estate investors. If you put these two things together, a real estate investor who happened to be very poor at his job, which Trump turned out to be, packed billions of dollars of NOLs that he was able to use the washes taxes for years and years. And by the way, and he was clearly proud of it, he was just goading the Democrats in not releasing them. They went through all this rigor, moral, and what did we find out? He had huge NOLs.

He had huge deductions and he paid no taxes. Is that shocking to any of us? It's like, it's like Shepel said. He came out of the house, told everyone everything you think is going on inside that house is going on and went back and then he walked back inside the house. Yeah. It was pretty great. You felt like, all right, listen, four David sacks, the rainman,

four, the queen of quinoa, Sultan of science, David Friedberg, and the dictator himself, Chimoff Paihapatiya. It has been an honor and a privilege to do this podcast with you, gentlemen. This is the longest show in the history of the pod. Enjoy everybody. RIP producer next, next 48 hours and we'll see everybody next year. Love you guys. Happy holidays. Love you best. I gotcha. We'll let your winners ride.

Bring man David Sack. I'm doing it. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with I'm gonna listen to your driveway. Wait, no, wait, no. Oh, man, my hamster will meet me. We should all just get a room and just have one big hug. Because they're all just like this sexual tension that we just need to release that out. What, you're the bee. What, you're the bee.

Bee. What? We need to get my cheese aren't that bad. I'm going, I'm going. I'm going to lose!