All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

Episode Date: November 4, 2020

Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Follow the bestie guesties: https://twitter.com/bgurley https://twitter.com/phil_hellmuth https://twitter.com/altcap https://twitter.com/jcpolls Show Notes: 0:00 The besties & Phil Hellmuth on Trump’s early lead, live betting odds, the Latinx reversal 10:09 Sacks intros political expert Michael Newman on vote tally timing discrepancies, why some states skew a certain way early & more 20:33 Assessing the 180 in the gambling markets & equity markets towards a pro-Trump outcome 24:18 SurveyMonkey Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen joins the show to talk about polling updates from 2016 to 2020, understanding the race so far, electoral college & more 41:51 Biden losing Florida, tax policy, cultural repudiation of the elites in 2020 50:43 Chamath on the stupidity of the establishment, socialism, Democratic ideology for 2024 if Biden loses 55:40 Mid-show predictions, Jason goes off on Trump 1:07:58 What will happen in the time until we have a clear winner, Trump as a middle finger 1:17:55 Brad Gerstner joins the show to talk about stock futures, what the Democrats keep getting wrong - coastal elites losing touch with normal people, rebuking lockdowns 1:38:24 Reviewing the race swing state by swing state 1:47:28 Bill Gurley joins the show to talk about divisiveness, urban/rural rapture & more 1:55:53 Pete Buttigieg as the future of the Democratic Party, Chamath calls out the democratic leaders 2:00:43 Reconciling middle America & the coastal elites, respecting each other’s differences, understanding Prop 22 2:11:34 Diagnosing states that flipped from Biden to Trump, anti-business California state propositions failing, union impact on legislation 2:23:01 Senate races, market talk, which Democratic candidate had the best chance of beating Trump, voting for character over policy 2:34:32 Jason & Sacks debate Russian election interference legitimacy 2:41:34 Sacks unveils his Trump Derangement Score tracker, updated outcome scenarios & more 2:51:51 Trump declaring victory could tank markets, live reaction to Joe Biden’s election night address

Hello everybody, welcome. We are live at the all-in headquarters and the all-in podcast is now live. We have 63 people watching already and bear with us while we get the besties on the line. I'll be doing my introductions in just a moment after I tweet this. But it is an eventful night and we had to start early because it's looking like this could be another shocker. And I am not being facetious here. I am not happy about this, obviously. But Trump looks like he's been underestimated again. This is not a blowout.

We are going live early. This could be a shocker, folks. Okay, so with me early on the pod is regular David Friedberg. David, you're watching this early action But with me early on the pod is regular David Friedberg. David, you're watching this early action and what's your early reaction to what we're seeing. You know, Trump's moved. There's nothing definitive yet, but he's moved

in the results and he's moving markets. We're seeing Forex markets show a sharp indication that Trump has a real shot at winning here, treasury markets, and as Phil Helmut will share with us betting markets as well. So it is more of a nail bider than game seven of the Warriors Caves. So here we go.

So here we go. There's a hell of a nail bider, guys, and I'm just going to say this. The UK market said at first, he was five to two. You could you could get Trump at five to two, two and after one. Then it hit five to four, and I thought that was quite crazy. You're watching CNN, you're watching these networks and they're saying, oh my god, Biden's winning this. No, they're not even in the right neighborhood. I'll never watch a network again on election night. And now the market from five minutes ago,

368 million pounds wagered, 368 million pounds. Trump is now a three to ten favorite. Okay, so for people who are not gamblers, let's read dollars. You bet $3. No, no, Jason, you have to understand. If you bet $13, okay, you don't get $13, you only get $10 back. Okay, now if you want to bet Biden, it's $7 to $4.

So if I bet $70 $5 bet $40 I can get $70 back on Biden. Now the shocker is right around 6.28 p.m. The betting odds the markets would have been in Biden's favor for three straight months I've been live posting them on my Twitter all day. The worst I saw was live posting them on my Twitter all day, the worst I saw was Trump was Biden was minus a dollar 25, still a big favor to win. And then boom, and you know, there are people in my house that are actually crying. You know, I'm very much more in the middle of this thing, but all of a sudden Trump, all of a sudden it was five to four than it was even. And then all of a sudden Trump was nearly a two to one favorite I'm getting live information from my friends right now

I'm seeing that That it's it's a little bit lower on some of these sites I saw 267 that's for a $200 bet. So he's a pretty big favorite. I Saw the lowest I've seen is 217 But Jason if you're watching the Alauds and I put some stuff on my Twitter, it's amazing how it went from, you know, minus $1.70, you know, all the way down,

minus a 30, then it came all the way up to minus $1.70. This is crazy and I've seen this movie before in 2016, actually. Okay, so we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win and that there were a couple of states that were critical for Trump to win. And it seems like those states that Trump was critical to win he has now won.

So let's bring in David Sacks, David, we just turned on the live stream. And boy, is this a turn of events that I don't think any of us except for maybe you, but you were very pessimistic on the last maybe three or four all in podcasts. You're watching these results come in. The betting markets have totally flipped to Trump. What are you seeing and what can we expect tonight? What are you looking for? Yeah, I mean, it was looking just like 2016. I mean, you're right that I was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we've done.

And there was no way to say anything other than, you know, Trump was the, was the underdog. But at the same time, I still thought that Trump had a really good shot because I was watching both candidates on YouTube all the time. They both were doing live events. I wasn't watching it with the commentary. I wasn't watching the clips.

I was watching Trump do these rallies. I was watching Biden do these parking lot events. And I would see Trump do four, five events a day flying from Tarmac to Tarmac on Air Force One having these huge crowds. I saw him do this event in Butler, Pennsylvania over the weekend. It looked to me like there was tens of thousands of people there. And I remember Trump saying a line like, you know, this doesn't seem like a second-place crowd.

And you know, it's one of those Trump lines, but, you know, it did put in my mind this idea, you know, he's got a point. Whatever the polls say, we're seeing tens of thousands of people show up at these events who are fanatical. I mean, just fanatical for Trump. And so you always had to think that he had a chance

of pulling off an upset just like 2016. I will say what I said on our text earlier, Donald Trump ate the COVID virus and killed it with his body. And then he stood in front of the White House and ripped his shirt off and let us all know that he is our leader. He did not get elected. He claimed victory beginning in 2016, and he has not and will not let go since then. And I think it is that cult of personality that cult of personality draws so many people in that are just, you know, feeling like they need change and they need leadership and they don't need something from the old school and

He stood up and he showed us that this whole thing is a is a fake COVID is a fake Government is fake the people are fake the media is fake I'm getting some late numbers here guys He's now a doubt minus a dollar 59 to win Pennsylvania and they took every other number off the board However, if you're a Biden person, Jason, the number is only 2.17 right now. So, oh wow, the polls are posters were miles off on this and this is just amazing. And it seems like from what we're hearing from the reporting is that the pollsters did not understand the Latin, or I guess Latin X is a way to describe a group of people

who actually don't think exactly the same. I've always had a weird understanding of this term, Latin X, which seems to come from the woke left. But Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, these are different countries. They're not all the same. And there's Waylands. And there's Waylands.

This is not a monoculture, just because they all speak the same language. And we're seeing something very different happen in Florida right now where male Cubans maybe are voting very differently than what Polsters expected. Bestie, Chimoff is now fresh off a tight haircut and he's here on the pod. Can you hear me?

We've got Bestie Philas, our first Bestie guestie of the night. Bestie P! How are you, Bestie P? Chimoff, we shouldn't talk about this. This is about politics, but you and I were just filming high-stakes, poker, in Las Vegas on Friday night. It was great to see you, bestie. Is there any indication you can give us besides? I mean, of course, there's a presidential election on that is going to determine the future of humanity, but more importantly, how

did you each do in the high stakes poker game? The biggest, the biggest, the biggest part of the night was around 400 K maybe 500 K played between me and Der. Der. Yeah. Anyone? He did not win the hand. Oh my lord.

She must win that one. Go, Jamal Go. And it was I think it was beautifully beautifully played. I think Doug Polk will definitely do a short video clip on it. I did a very, very sneaky three-bet pre-flop turn check, river overbluff and got him to call. Oh my lord, a little set bomb, I'm guessing, but here we go. Jay, so I can't wait,

since I'm here to promote, promote, promote everything I promote, you can only watch these episodes of Highstakes Poker, a lot of players favorite show. You can only watch them on the Poker Go app. They're coming out December 16th, meet you, Mott, Phil Ivey, Tom Duan, Ben Lam, a lot of your heroes. Take it away.

Oh, well, can't wait, can't wait to, and I have a subscription to that all in. I'm sorry, the poker go app, it's well worth it. David Sacks, you have one of your... I'm recording. Friends on the pod. Why don't you introduce one of your consulting friends and we'll have him tee up. What we think the possible scenarios are,

and we're right now at this very moment. Yeah, so 67 in California. Yeah, so Michael Newman works for me as a researcher and He's a Is a political scientist like you guys you could say and I've known him since college and he's very steeped in these a lot of these races. I don't know if he's the guy who got it. I have been obsessively following politics since the Reagan election of 1980.

So I was a delive then. So I'm afraid I'm, I was only 10, but I was already a political obsessive and as you can imagine, a real hit with the ladies as well. So tell us what, what are the key states we need to focus in on here, and which one of them have enough reporting for us to sort of put them in a column and then move on and understand the path to victory for Trump or Biden.

Yes, well, I mean, depending upon which network or news organization you're following, they're either calling a lot of states or they're being very conservative about their calls. I mean, NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win that state. So you can put that safely in the Trump column. He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing all night. We've got about 88% of the vote in now. And I suspect he's home free. As is the Republican incumbent senator there.

Can I just ask a question? I mean, isn't it typically the case that the counts from the most populous urban areas come last and those tend to skew more Democrat than Reboot OK. That sometimes happens. It depends on the state. Some states have their rural areas come in last. One of the things that has changed the vote in North Carolina is as the early vote came

in as the in-person early vote and mail-in ballots came in. The last counties that reported that early vote were the rural counties. That's why early on it looked very good for Biden, and now it looks like it's trending away from him. Well, wait a second. North Carolina, according to the New York Times, and according to CNN right now is favoring slightly Biden, 49.7% to 49.1% for Trump with 84%. I don't think that's quite current.

I think they're up to about 88%. But again, it's very close. What's interesting is Biden had five potential states where he could have knocked trump out florida jorge and north carolina o'hioe in texas we are the example we don't get florida's off the table the others are still on the table but none of them are trending by the insurrection at the present time so he uh...

yet so far trump is uh... So far, Trump is staying in the hand as you poker players would say. He's getting the cards he needs to stay in the game. But we still have the river to play. And the river would be, in this Biden, which was crazy to see. Right now, it's got Donald Trump at 50.3% Biden at 48.3%. Guys again, so that's again, to normalize. I go back to this one very critical thing. The reason why Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania right now are Trump is because you count the, when the county is counted, you can pass

the votes and you can report. And if you have 25,000 people in a county versus Allegheny County, which has like, I don't know, hundreds of thousands or a million plus people, it just takes longer. Yes. No, listen, I don't characterize Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania at all.

I think one of the reasons why Michigan right now looks so red is because they're counting today's vote first. A lot of these other states that like Florida that had the option because their legislature allows them to do this, they counted all that early vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile as soon as the polls closed in the in the various counties. So that's why you saw early on a blue Mirage there. What you're seeing in a place like Michigan right now is probably a red Mirage because it's today's vote, which was going to skew Trump

because of the way he presented it to his people. Florida was the one state thank thank goodness, for his sake that he encouraged people to vote early and by mail. In the other states, he encouraged his people to vote today. Here's a stat in Pennsylvania. I'm on the Secretary of State's reporting dashboard. They've counted only 12% of the mail-in ballots, which is, and the total mailing ballots is 2.5 million, which is huge, right? And they've only counted to be a majority of the vote,

I would imagine. Yeah, and they've only counted 24%, actually, sorry, they've only counted a handful of precincts at this point. It's like a quarter of the precincts, right? Here's something I don't understand. Nick Carlson from, was it like business insider? He just tweeted minutes ago that North Carolina, Biden is ahead with 99% of the vote counted and Biden has a less than

0.2% lead, but it's 9,000 votes. What I mean that's That would be a huge problem for Trump No, North Carolina, I listen, I think a loss in any of those five states Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio or Texas is probably Shout out by the way guys. I just want to give a shout out to Nothin who's listening here. All the way from Sri Lanka, he's listening, he just texted me. Okay, so much. By the way, guys, right now the odds are three to one on the betting market. So, I mean, obviously the networks I realized are completely useless. I stopped

watching them a long time ago when they had Biden way ahead in Florida, and the odds were 10 to one against. Right now, if you want to bet Trump is a 3 to 1 favorite on, and there's been billions of dollars bet in England, Australia, all over the world. He's a 3 to 1 favorite. It looks like it's real to me. And just to build your side of the case, Nasdaq futures ripping, S&P futures falling, and the 10 and 30 year falling, Remimbi ripping, these are all pro Trump trades. And the euro collapse, the euro dollar falling, falling sharply once the market

is turned towards Trump. Well, here's what the reacting to is Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Trump is all up big time. Now, again, this, this, that lacks a very basic understanding of how county reporting is happening in these highly populace, that lacks a very basic understanding of how county reporting is happening in these highly populace, you know, or these sort of, sorry, these, uh, bi-modally distributed states where they have a bunch of suburban and rural vote that's fast account and the big places, for example, like, you know, you're not going to see Milwaukee

and Green Bay report until probably close to midnight. So the question is, why are the betting markets so pro-Trump then? What do they know that we don't know? I will say this, let me say this Jason. If you're talking about billions of dollars, right? So all you had to do was design a system to figure out how to calculate votes earlier and make a couple hundred million dollars. These are the smartest people in the world. There's hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars at stake. They obviously do it ten times better than any other site than in the other network. So this information,

I mean, I give a friend of mine posted a hand link two to one on Twitter, on buy. Guys, my other friend bet four hundred thousand000 to $800,000. Trump, and now he looks like a genius. Somebody knows something that we don't know. Well, Trump just on Bavada, Trump just moved to minus 600. Yeah, just a Michigan. Un- unbelievable. It looks like he's a head in Michigan.

But again, we have to see Detroit. And there's a bunch of places in Michigan. Let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, let's, so here's the North Carolina Secretary of State dashboard. And there's showing two thirds of the counties, and you can actually see by county when you go on to their dashboard, the, you know, Jamaat, the larger counties are partially

reported. Most of the smaller counties are fully reported. 63% total with, you know, Biden ahead, by literally a thousand votes right now. Accraut 2.5, 2.2 million to 2.5, 2.1 million. Wow. But what percent reported is that? I mean, it's 63% of the counties have completely reported. And so the remaining counties, if you look at the reporting status, the remaining counties

that are partially reported, there's a mix of rural and some of the urban counties, Durham's in there, partially reported. So there is a mix. It's not only... Durham should be a Biden County. The research triangle is upscale, well-educated professionals that I think are the backbone of the Democrats coalition in a state like North Carolina. that are counted, and they have so far counted 3.3 million absentee one-stop votes and a million votes by mail. But that's how many came in. It actually shows that only five, oh, I see. Yeah, okay, that makes sense. Trump is now ahead in Ohio by two thirds of the votes were apples. Post the link into the Zoom chat so Nick can

pull it up on the screen. Please I Need to get an understanding of something very basic here for the audience who's not degenerate gamblers Are is there a chance here Phil and Shamaugh gambling experts both That people had put early money on Biden and are now covering or hedging some of those bets. Is that a possibility here? Yes. Okay.

Jason, the line is minus four 10 on pinnacle right now. Let me just double check that source. So what Phil is saying, Jason is like, yes, there's going to be a bunch of essentially covering. Now, that covering will swing the line. But I think what Phil is also saying is when a line moves this violently, literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both the equity markets, the currency markets, and the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been, not just all day, but frankly where they had been probably for the last few months.

That's what I was saying, Shema, for three months straight, right now Biden has been a favorite anywhere between three to one favorite at one point, all the way to maybe 50% favorite. And all of a sudden today, the lowest I saw was $1.35, and I was kind of shocked. And the next thing, boom know, boom, Trump's a three to four to one favorite. So, and I'm looking at CNN and I'm looking at these

networks and they're still, they still have Biden ahead. And I'm like, wow, what is going on there way behind that's that's the next thing we need to take care of. Jamal, there's a business for you is somehow we can deliver the right data on elections quickly. There you go, Saxon. Yeah, well, I think the betting markets know something we don't know because Trump is just, you know, if you look at like the live stream on Twitter or the New York Times or something, Trump just slightly took the lead in Ohio,

but that's the state he's supposed to win in North Carolina. It looks like with over 99% reporting, it looks like he lost by 9,000 votes. By the way, a 9,000 vote margin would probably trigger an automatic recount of North Carolina. And there's like a hundred thousand abscessy ballots there. I don't know if those have been counted yet. Okay, so let's pause for one second on this everybody. North Carolina is one of the four or five states Trump has to win in order to have a victory, right, Michael?

I absolutely agree with that. He had to have those five. Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas. Okay, so we have Florida, he's got, now there's four left. There's four left. Georgia's a very slow counting state. We really don't know. All of Atlanta could be out for all we know.

But we leave Georgia on the side. So now we've got four states we can work with. North Carolina is in Biden's pocket by just a hair. Yeah. That could change and it would trigger a recount which would take days to weeks. Yes. Now, the three states, let's go through them systematically one by one, Michael. Okay. Ohio was the biggest surprise of the night when biden built an early lead there although again a bit of a blue mirage based upon uh... the fact that the mail-in vote in the early vote came in so strong for the democrats this year

uh... because they emphasized it in the republicans kind of fought against it uh... but michael michael with forty nine percent of the vote in the ohio okay he had a right now b Biden had a massive lead, and he had about a 400,000 vote lead would have to vote. Correct. And we look at the betting odds, he was five to one underdog to win the state. So something doesn't add up there,

and you can say, all right, some of that is all the early voting went for Biden. We know that to be a fact, but there's something else there. Okay, I'm just looking at the results for Ohio will stay on Ohio for one more moment. And then we have another gas who just jumped on Ohio is currently showing Donald Trump with two point rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million slightly rounding up for Joe Biden 52% to 47% with 78% reporting. Does that mean we feel comfortable with Trump winning Ohio? Unless all of Cleveland is outstanding, I would say that's a Trump state. Okay, we now have John Cohen online. John is a member of the SurveyMonkey team.

John, welcome to the All in Pod. Can you hear us? Thank you so much. I'm sorry I didn't hear what was going on. I don't know how much you've been disparaging pulsar so far. So we know what's coming in. We're waiting for you.

We're waiting for you to get here. Tell us as we start, what your prediction was earlier today? Well, we're very clear to say that we're doing measurements not predictions. Okay. That said, the measurements that we are doing clearly pointed to Biden advantages across the board, but we didn't have, we so far we have no surprises.

You know, we had Florida had been Trump plus two, basically all week, going to dead even, you know, coming into the election day itself. We don't know where the final votes will be. Most analysts think that it's in Trump's camp. It may end up there, but it's super close. We had Georgia close. We had North Carolina close. Although, and North Carolina had been closing, it had been a big Biden lead. It was down to under two points with the Senate, you know, kind of even closer than that in some of our data. So, you know, kind of so far, there's no obvious surprise here, like, damn, the polls were

really wrong, certainly ours. You know, it's early though. We're not declaring victory on those. Obviously, there's a lot to watch, but nothing really to surprise, you know, us giving them the numbers so far. What about Ohio and Georgia? So we had Ohio pretty consistently in Trump's camp. We had him up four. So it's trending

that way now. We had it as close as two points for Trump. I mean, again, I haven't mentioned the word margin of air. That's in my professional obligation. And duty to mention it is around three points, I believe, to an half in Ohio. So close, but we always had it in Trump's camp. Again, Biden, that wasn't part of Biden's, you know, any of the past and victory that the campaign was counting on. So, you know, no big deal, but we went from having early night to now we're we're sure for sure and for a really late night here. John, let me ask you that one of the most basic questions that I've had, which is what did we learn from 2016 and tell me what exactly did people try to fix? Like what was the thing that everybody got wrong and what changed? Well, the biggest thing that polls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education.

What we see in polling no matter how they're conducted, whether online as we do a survey monkey, or still on the telephone, which most media pollsters do, is you get people with more formal education to answer those surveys pollsters do, is you get people with more formal education to answer those surveys in far greater proportions than you do with lower education. So the biggest thing you got to do, and look, we always did it. So we weren't among the state pollsters who kind of failed, I think, negligently, to adjust by education at all. We always adjust by education, but what we failed to notice in 2016

was there was an increasing gap between those with postgraduate degrees and those of BA's. They've always been both to pro-democratic group, but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large. A fix to our polls, which I just point out weren't, you know, kind of were actually standouts in the in the upper midwest in terms of showing it as a close race, not clear victories. We broke apart post-grads and grads into two distinct categories, and that released about a point and a half of unforeseen air

in our polling from 2016. So that's fixed, we've used it to good effect. Again, this time around, we weren't showing what all the other national polls were showing. We've had this between a four and six point national leap. Again, we'll get quickly into why national results don't matter, but you all know that all too well. Everyone knows that all too well. But we've had it kind of more narrow, and that plays out in the states that I mentioned. We had Florida tied, not a four point by five point by advantage elsewhere. But we'll see how it plays out in the Midwest. We also had Wisconsin,

those are final margin there. I think it was kind of nine and a half points, not the 17 points that you saw from my former colleagues at the Washington Post, ABC News. So we've always had it a little bit tighter, but again, it plays how it's gonna play out in these states and so far, no surprises, but the night is early and I have a healthy dose of Pulstage paranoia. Jamoff, I don't know if that answered your question well

enough, but that was the main thing people did. It's really helpful, but now take off your Pulster measure or chief research officer hat for a second and put on just the American hat. What does it mean when we had effectively a repudiation of the establishment in 2016. And despite everything that's happened over the last four years, we may be on the brink of another repudiation again. If you, you know, where you're there to measure the pulse of what's going on, but less in sort of measurement speak and just more in just plain American English speak, John, what, like what's going on?

If this happens again. So you're absolutely right. There's something major. I would also like to caveat it. We are looking once again at if Trump wins, it's because of the electoral college. Like, he is going to lose the popular vote. There's still far more American to end American voters who voted today and, you know, kind of over the past several weeks, who would prefer Joe Biden to be president.

So again, we can't characterize with a broad brush the American voting population when this is about effectively, I hate to call it a quirk, but this is about our system of vote tallying. And the president, to pull back your point about kind of there is something major here. The fact that many people, some of us might be friends with can't understand why this isn't a 100 to zero race, failed to understand that the

president's base isn't small. It is, you know, we've had it 44 to 46% approving of his job performance for many years now. Like he has a completely durable solid floor. He also has a high ceiling. Right, so he was never going to win the popular vote this time around, but he had a chance at that electoral, you know, squeaking out another electoral college win because he's been so stable. You know, this is the president who, you know, kind of up, Trump now had an NC, thank you for the chat window. So I think you're right that we need to understand more about what is the component of that 45% that they would support Trump when the other 55% are so dead set against him and see it as something really wrong with the country. So we still have two countries.

No, what have you guys done to the understand the people that are voting for Trump better because I think that they are protesting and they're protesting a lot. And I think that, you know, if we didn't listen to them in 16, I think it's almost criminal to not listen to them in 2020. So what are they, what are they saying? What are they rejecting? Or what is it that they want? Because at the end of the day, you know, I think his incompetence can't really be debated, competence versus incompetence. I think what we can debate is he's a vessel. And in that, I think that it's incredibly important what's happening, irrespective of what happens today, because we were supposed to walk into a landslide. We're not, as you said, we're going to be an enailed fighter. What are they using him as a vessel to communicate to

everybody else? That's a really good question. Some of that will depend on a closer analysis of the surveys are where we talked to more than a million voters and the exit polls that are being deducted by two separate organizations. But what are the storylines that come out of the election? One of the things that's being reported early is there's a much tighter Hispanic vote in Florida than many early polls predicted. How will that play out as we start to get votes coming out in Texas? How is it being Arizona?

Say Arizona looking positively for Biden and Mark Kelly in the Senate in Arizona. Is it really a Hispanic boats that are driving some Trump strength in these states? Or is it the obsession that the Muse Media has had for the past four years around the kind of Trump middle-aged white male voter with less than college education who has been displaced by technological and industrial trends over the past 20 years. I think it's going to depend on what that voting coalition looks like for Trump. And it's more diverse than I think we've been focusing on for four years. I think you're saying an incredibly important thing. I think that that was a ruse,

and I've always thought that that was bullshit. It's not some undereducated rube that's running around voting for this guy. I think that there are people up and down the age spectrum, the socioeconomic spectrum, and this is what I mean by he has become a vessel for so many different messages. And I think we really have to start figuring out what the hell these messages actually mean because

if Biden loses to your point, maybe in Florida, it's a repudiation of socialism. Okay. But in Pennsylvania, it's going to be something else in Michigan. It's going to be something else in Ohio. It's going to be something else for him to keep winning, right? And I just don't think that there's a consistent idea. And it's very dismissive to say that I'm not saying you are, but I'm saying, you know, that idea that it was an out of work, X factory worker, you know, in rural Ohio, that was protesting. This is going to be much bigger than that because even if Biden wins the popular vote until we figure out how to rebass balance the electoral college in a completely new way or just get rid of it all together, we're going to have to live with understanding

how some folks in these extremely pivotal states are pushing back. Are they pushing back on political correctness? You know, that's one thing that I've always thought. I think that there's a huge vote here against cancel culture. Cancel culture. So a little bit of that stuff. Absolutely. Absolutely.

The ones that are called culture and lockdowns. I think those are the under reported lockdowns are the, I think the biggest one of the biggest drivers for it. No, go ahead, John. Go ahead. John. I was going to say one of the components here for it. No, go ahead, John. Go ahead. John, I was going to say one of the components here that we have to pay a lot of attention to is gender, right?

Kind of, you know, the storyline for a long time. And we think about, you know, kind of Republican-Devergaric politics is that, you know, we talk about black voters and Hispanic voters, talking about them as if they're monoliths. What we have seen consistently over the course of the year is that Trump does much better among black men and Hispanic men than he does among black women and Latinos. And that is just kind of like, you know, whereas black women are 95, 5, you know, he mirrors 20% among black men. It blends into what we've 90, 10 years. Look, but I, but I look, these are measurements. These. These are measurements. I don't think they're telling you the why's of anything.

And I think for the why's you have to go a lot deeper. I mean, first of all, let's talk about the lockdown issue. Can we just pull up that tweet, Nick? I mean, so this is what I said back in May. This was like months ago before the election even hit, you know, which is if the woke left and sits on permanent lockdowns, Trump will have an issue that supersedes

the incompetence of COVID response, because I think we all agree on that, which is whether our lives and livelihoods belong to politicians to meet or out in drivison drabs as they see fit. And this was back when Elon was being shut out of his factory in Fremont, and then there was this hairdresser named

Shelley Luther in Texas, who was basically put on trial for opening up her hair salon, and the judge wanted her to grovel and beg for forgiveness. And this was the beginning of the rebellion over lockdowns. And it was so obvious back then that lockdowns weren't going to fly, they weren't sustainable, they were too politely unpopular, they weren't going to work. And by the way, if it was something a cause that the left agreed with, like, you know, a BLM rally or something like that, then you were allowed to do it, you know, it

was that whole standard around, you know, doing things that were essential. And so this insistence on lockdowns, even after the public had really repudiated them, I think was a major issue for Trump. And it was crazy to me that Biden was still insisting on lockdowns, you know, still, I mean, that is his official position. I don't think it's the only reason why he's in trouble right now, but I think it's a big

one. I think if Trump reaches the blue wall again of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, lockdowns is the biggest reason why, because those are three states that had extensive and still have extensive lockdown. It hurts people. I'll read you a tweet. I won't name who it's from. It's from a farmer in the Corn Belt who's well-followed on Twitter. Believe it or not, there's a whole ag Twitter community.

And he says, well, it's the day. Does this country turn down the road to be like Venezuela or do we continue on the road of capitalism? And he's had this acute feeling that he's kind of vocalized on Twitter for months now on how painful the lockdowns have been on him and his family and his business and on the community. And it just feels like overreach to a lot of people that the recognition that the left might be using to justify the decision is just not there. That the impact, the near term impact that folks are feeling is just not there that the impact the near-term impact

That folks are feeling is what's there and that's driving a lot of behavior right now boys all markets are now up Everything is green doubt futures S&P 500 futures. That's that futures Oil is up gold is down and there were some guys that made some heavy bets against the dollar going into this thinking We were gonna have massive inflation with Biden policy coming up and Some big fund managers that went really big on on shorting the dollar this last week And the dollars up right now. Yeah By the way, we should we should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important Senate races because it's not just Trump versus Biden that there's also a bunch of

because it's not just Trump versus Biden, that there's also a bunch of Senator Reesberg. He can Lou Berwan and Colorado. He can Lou Berwan and Colorado. But there have been some, you know, some of the Republicans who look to be in big trouble like Lindsey Graham have pulled it out and have won. And so it's looking like the Senate

is still very much in play. I would say as big a favorite as Biden was, the Senate shifting from Republican to Democrat, I say that was considered as equally big a favorite. And that, that may not happen now. So we should make sure to talk about that at some point. North Carolina right now is 49.8% to 49% for Biden, 2.6 million versus 2.58. Ohio is at 2.4 to 2.2. 51, 52% to 47% Trump is beating Biden. I have a question for John Cohen.

John, let's go back to your understanding as you've been measuring different trends. Have you measured people's sympathy towards lockdowns on a state by state level? And then second question is, have you measured people's sympathy to cancel culture at a state by state level? And by the way, you're on mute.

So if you wanna just take yourself off the floor. Yeah, thank you. We have not done anything on cancel culture. We've done a lot on the coronavirus. We've been tracking that actually in three countries since mid-February and we have a state by state look and what's interesting is we asked the question like this is primarily an economic issue or primary health health issue than an economic one. Trump with Trump supporters overwhelming say that crisis is one that's financial, not health-related. So there's always been that, but it's been like a 45-55 gap there. So we've been measuring it state by state, but there's a solid core of people. And it gets to David's point about why. What are they focused on? What is affecting them and their, you know, pocketbooks, it is the, you know, lockdowns and the kind of clamping down and what is this economic crisis, not a healthcare one, even though that's

what we all say that they should follow. I mean, there was a, there was a, there was a fantastic line that the Democrats coined, which essentially said something to the tune, Saxipoo, you'll tell me if I get this wrong, but it was socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the rest of us. It's essentially their grab bag phrase for this election cycle and sort of to frame a lot of policies. But when you have in these states, again, if we say this cuts along socioeconomic lines,

but then maybe bleeds into college and even graduate level educator folks. Is there a vote here for rugged individualism and just leave me the fuck alone? There certainly could be. I want to go back to what David said about measuring versus the Y. Because I mentioned gender to point out a big difference that we're seeing across racial groups, across levels of education. But we're polling every day. So you guys have the right why question?

Send it to me. Send to Zander. We'll ask it. We pulled 9,000 people today on their willingness to accept the results. And so we'll be putting that out tomorrow. We have an exit poll running every day from here on to certainly until we get a result.

So you have the question you want to ask, send along. We'll get you the data at the state level. All right, John, we very, very much appreciate you coming on the pod and we will be checking survey monkeys amazing data as we go. I'm gonna switch now. I'm just thinking for a little bit. John, thank you.

John, thank you and Zander. Thanks for, for hooking that up. Thanks, John. Thanks, guys. And we'll have some more bestie guesties coming up. Some fan favorites from the Twitter and the poker group. I just want to point out right now that it's very interesting to see that Fox has Biden at 129 electoral votes and Trump

at 109. And some of the other networks have it much lower. How do the networks make these decisions of when to call a state? Because it's too early, according to many, to call Florida, but we're sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of where Florida is at. Does anybody have any thoughts on that? Well, I think they're airing on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year that it is and the fact that there is all this.

We had over 100 million votes banked early through the mail or through early in-person voting. And nobody sure how many more mail ballots, according to one side, it looked at there were still 27 million ballots outstanding. Now, some of those are redundant ballots like David's father-in-law who got three ballots in the mail in Pennsylvania, and a lot of those are probably going in the trash, but there could be another five to ten million of those to come in that are postmarked by today.

Many states will accept them after the election, as long as they're postmarked by election day. So they're probably being very, very careful that they don't make a premature call. Of course, they all have PTSD about what happened in 2000. When they first prematurely called Florida for Al Gore, then prematurely called it for George W. Bush. And we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in Florida. So I think they're going to err on the side of extreme caution across the board.

Although I feel like the margin in Florida at this point is insurmountable now, right? That's Florida's over. Florida's over. It's about now, it's about, or it's about Ohio. By the way, the betting markets have just moved again big time. So Donald Trump was at minus 600. Now he's minus 250 on Bavado. Phil, what do you think about that? Yeah, snapping back. I will say, let me, let me address what Jake, Jason was talking about a few seconds ago. And that's it, you know, basically Florida, even the New York Times had them at at 6 p.m. 95% to go to Trump at 95% That was a New York Times site in my wife and I looked it up and the betting odds had them at over 10 to 1 This was at 5.30. This was two hours ago

So I mean, I just think there's a huge inefficiency with with the way that I think it was over as soon as the Miami-Dade dump Showed that Biden only won the early vote by nine points. I mean the Hillary won it by 29 in 2016 and she lost the state. So how much of this do we think has to do with tax policy? People in Florida are retiring. We have the AOC gang. We have a list of Florida. It's as beloved stay to us. A place. So, so hometown favorite moral logo, I get that, but you have so many retirees and we

have this bifurcation of how taxes should work in the United States. So I just want to open that up for the entire group to discuss of art. Are we seeing old people? Are we seeing people who are concerned about taxes?

Because we have had a flight in the last couple of years of people from high tax states to low tax states. Is this about taxes, do you think? Let's start with you, Friedberg. No one wants to pay taxes. The fuck, I don't mean like no one's going to raise their hand if they want to pay taxes to somebody. But I mean, there's a moment where taxes don't matter. And I'm like, no one's going to raise their hand if they want to be taxes.

But I mean, there's a moment where taxes don't matter. If you're, if you're, if you're, no, but if you're, Romney, Romney was in favor or taxes and he, he, you know, he didn't win any, any of these elections, like the way that, that Trump looks like he's going to, I think that the traditional Republican message of taxes is sort of necessary, but not sufficient. Trump obviously brought a whole set of issues that previous Republicans hadn't brought. And I think that, I think you have to look at 2016, separately from 2020.

And so starting with 2016, I think the big issue that Trump, that no Republican really had ever figured out except maybe Pat Buchanan 20 years ago, was the trade issue with China. You know, we forget that in the 19th century when the great Chinese economic reformer, Dung Xiaoping, decided to open up the Chinese economy, the average Chinese was making $2 a day.

And today their economy is roughly the size of the US. Now, what was the reason for that? Well, we had a bipartisan consensus in this country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both Clinton's and both Bush's that we should open them, we should welcome them with open arms. And we opened up our market to Chinese products. We brought them into the world trade organization. And I'm not saying.

But that was the start, that was the start of, that was the killer app or the killer issue that Trump figured out. And that's what shattered the blue firewall in those rust belt states. I mean, if you're going to try and figure out going back 2016, why Trump won? You have to explain why he won Michigan was saying our jobs. They took our jobs. But what I'm saying is the manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl came in. I mean, that's his argument. And that was a killer argument. I mean, and the proof is in the pudding. It's in the proof is that he won these states that Hillary thought were so in the

bag that she didn't even bother to campaign there That was the big surprise at 2020 and the issue of taxes No, let me explain what's going on in 2020 in my opinion, okay? This is not a partisan explanation, but I think that after the loss in 2016 look in Business we know that when you lose it when you make a mistake You make a bad investment or the company does something wrong you analyze what you did wrong Right, and then you figure out what changes to make the Democrat party did not do that what do they do? They blame Facebook they blame it on Russian interference

They never really analyze why they lost these Roosevelt states and made Changes instead what they began was this hysterical denunciation of Trump. You had this sort of, you know, you sort of had this, this sort of, you know, media, culture, tech, industrial complex, who decided that Trump was an illegitimate president. And so what they did is they went all in on impeachment, they went all in on this Russia stuff. And in the process, they created this enormous backlash.

And I think that 2020, if 2016 was an economic repudiation of the elites, 2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites. That is the big issue in 2020. Yeah, I tend to, I tend to am sympathetic to David's view. I don't completely agree with all of it, but just to build on something you said, I don't think Jason, this has anything to do with taxes. I think that in Florida, if we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened,

I think there's a lot of people, older people that probably lived If we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened, I think there's a lot of people, older people that probably lived through some version of McCarthyism and immigrants who actually fled really shitty totalitarian countries who were like, you wanna do what here? And I think that there was a lot of people that basically are giving a very clear signal, which is, I'm a Democrat, but if you push me to the brink and talk about a socialized

nanny state, I'm going to vote Republican. So today, it's point to today, it's point. If there was an economic repudiation of sort of traditional globalism in 2016, and Donald Trump ends up carrying the day in today, then it's a repudiation of sort of these cultural manifestos and norms that we're swinging to. Now, the answer to that may be to say, change the electoral college because it doesn't represent the majority or the plurality of Americans. I hear that.

But in the same way that, you know, we've said for years now that the Republicans will have to change to when the electoral college or to change to when what's evolving in terms of people's perceptions on social policy, it may actually be the Democrats that also have to change if this doesn't swing hard back in Biden's favor. So, and Chimoff, when you made that statement,

I think what's particularly prescient is the Democrats believed that because of the demographic shift from white Americans to people of color, Latinos, black Americans, that they were just going to win all of them. Well, this is, this is the problem with the structure. This is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment. Like if you take a thousand brown people and put us in a room, what I will tell you is just in case here's a fucking memo for all you white people out there, we're not all the god damn saying.

Okay. And if you put a thousand black people, here's the memo now for the Democrats and the Republicans. They're not all the same. You can take a thousand Hispanics and it turns out they're not all the same. So maybe, you know, you can take a thousand straight people, a thousand gay people. They're not all the fucking same. So maybe what this means is that we've moved past color and now ideology and social policy and economic and monetary and fiscal, all of these things, the totality of how a rational, well-developed person makes a decision.

Maybe that's at hand, and before, if we historically only thought older white men and white women could do it, maybe now it actually applies independent of color and gender. Yeah, I absolutely agree with that. And I would add to that that if Trump's victory in 2016 laid waste to the Republican establishment, if he wins again tonight, it will lay waste to the Democratic establishment. And the theory of the case that they've had for 20 years, the sort of share emerging Democratic majority case that they just had to sit back and let demography become destiny and they could just graft and identity politics onto the same neoliberal economic agenda they've been pushing since the late 1980s and it would all

just somehow magically produce majority results in the country. They are going to have to go back to the drawing board and I think get more populist themselves and come up with some kind of version of politics that is more in the Bernie mold. It needs to be left but not woke. Isn't it gonna be socialism? It probably is gonna be socialism,

but it needs to not be. If you lay waste to the center, you know, you're left, like mean, that's basically what happened. I'm going to the Republicans. And now if you're saying the same is going to happen with the Democrats, this time around, you're going to have AOC running for president in four years. And I mean, she won't be the right brand, though, because she's woke. You guys just need to share it.

You don't need AOC. We need a charismatic Democratic candidate. Somehow Sharon Brown keeps getting elected in increasingly red Ohio as an old school gravely voiced Irish labor Democrat. And somehow Bernie ignited a movement as a very old school gravely voiced Jewish Democrat. Neither of whom gave a damn about identity politics really. They were principally concerned with inequality and income redistribution. I don't want to see that happen, but I think that's the only path forward for the Democrats.

Let me go to Phil, because Phil had somebody once he had there, and then we'll go to you, Chema. Yeah, I want to say that we needed for the Democrats, and I just needed that. I think they needed a very, they needed a charismatic, powerful leader with a lot of charisma. I mean, I know that, you know, I was hanging out with one of the Trump guys that was with them on the plane in the 2016 election. He said that, you know, he outworked Hillary.

There's no doubt that he outworked Biden. I mean, this guy's going to seven rallies a day, showing up with a ton of energy and he has, you know, like Imranadi has a lot of charisma. Also, I can't help but think that you're talking about rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, rupee, even the young people that, you know, even the young people, you know, who say that they love it, they're looking at their path to the future. And with, you know, they can still do great things.

There's no doubt you can still be a 20-year-old and make a billion dollars for the time you're 30 or 40. And I think with socialism, that goes away. I think that, look, I think if Trump does win, I don't think what it means is that you need a person that's at the extreme left to win. I actually counterintuitive, we would say the opposite, which is that

you need just a more credible, centered person. Now, that may only be possible if the Democratic Party cleaves in two. And the reality is the Republicans may actually quasi-cleave in two independent of whether Trump wins or not anyways. And we'll see, as David said, how some of these Senate seats break, because if that goes in a different direction, for example, if Trump wins, but we have a Democratic tie in the Senate, maybe that's not possible, but I think that would say a lot around the need for pragmatic but more youthful leadership. Okay, I want to go around the horn right now.

What is your kept telling me who is going to win given what we know right now? Everybody give it a thought when you're ready look into the camera and I will call on you Michael. You're looking into the camera. Okay, if you have one right now Michael give us your best guess. Oh, the wind. The wind is around North Carolina because that would tell me a lot, but I have increasingly think Trump is going to win Okay, Phil you're looking in the camera. Who do you think's gonna win? We've seen this movie before Except that Hillary was actually five to one favorite last time And I watched these numbers go straight up and now I'm watching the same thing

It seems like although I will say this You know sacks has been posting some stuff within our channel about the numbers popping up and down. I'm getting texts and they are popping up and up. It's still the lowest I've seen is 2.5 to one. I think Trump wins. Trump wins. Who do you got SACS? Well, I'm going to assume the betting markets know something. I'm still a little bit unclear on North Carolina because I saw some tweets that I hadn't wanted by a few thousand votes, but the North Carolina website is showing that actually

trumps ahead about like 70,000 votes, so I'm not sure who to believe. And, uh, well, yeah, look, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna go with the bad markets are saying, which is Trump. And, um, you know, I thought that he, I thought he had a much better shot than the polls were reflecting. And that's what it's looking like. What do you got free, Bird? Donald Trump took on coronavirus for us. He killed it. He is our true leader and he will prevail here in the United States of America tonight. At least the betting markets are telling me and the treasury markets and the S&P futures are telling me the Donald Trump's going way. But I do think that the fact that this guy has never conceded defeat to anything

in his life gives him a huge leg up. And he, you know, he is, he is like Steve Jobs. He warps reality. And he tells everyone, I am going to win. I have killed coronavirus and it happens. Wait, like a Jedi night. It's a Jedi. All right.

I will. For a four so far picking. I will. Exactly 745 p.m. Yeah, all right. You know, for a four so far picking. I will. Exactly 745 PM California time. Shamaht, who do you have at this point? If you had to shove your chips all in. I still think the path is. I, I think it's Biden and I have the advantage of some information, which is that they just

announced breaking news. They aren't counting mail-in votes in Philadelphia tonight. And I am going with... So we don't know Pennsylvania tonight. So if it's down to a few thousand votes, Philly I think is going to break. I think you can count that as three or four hundred thousand votes. And it should be, it should be five hundred thousand. It should be five hundred thousand. Well, then five hundred thousand would carry the state for Joe Biden.

Yeah, they've counted a hundred thousand. So I'm going to stick with Biden here because I think that, that Philadelphia vote count is crucial. It turns out that it may come down to Philly. Which by the way, I'm going to stick with Biden here because I think that that Philadelphia vote count is crucial. It turns out that it may come down to Philly. Which by the way, what an incredibly poignant place for the election to be won and lost. The city of underdogs, the city of Rocky. I think we can safely say that Biden is going to win the popular vote and it might be by four points, five points, which means that there is a discrepancy

between the popular vote and electoral college. We're going to hear a lot about that. And because I am going to go with Biden because my heart is going to be so broken. This country picks this sociopath to run it for another four years after his absolute failure to do even the most modest things to battle coronavirus. And the strife he has caused between Americans and his personal style is so heartbreaking to me that I don't know that I can believe in America if they put this absolutely sociopathic person who has the least amount of character of any other human being, anybody on this call has ever met in their lives.

It would be a complete absolute utter disgrace if he makes it into office for a second term. Jason, what do you really exist? So you're going to respond to that? Well, look, I mean, the American people hold on. It's an existential threat. It's a big tire, planet and humanity and democracy across the world. If this country puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn fucking more years.

I'll make a prediction. That's my personal feeling. I can't, I don't care what the statistics stay right now. In my heart, I cannot give that man even a benefit of the doubt. If he wins, garbage. If he wins is Fauci the first guy fired. Oh, I think you can count on it. And Fauci and Christopher Ray, the FBI director, and on, right? And increasingly maybe Bill Barr, too. And how Bill Barr has done it up in the think of that. Sred of credibility or honor is gone. I want to, I want to just say to, to Jake, how I, I really empathize with how you're feeling because I have never as a person that has been a citizen of three countries When I moved to America in 2000 I have never really I mean, you know edge cases. Yeah, I felt some racism here obviously

You know, I've but I've never felt so unwanted and I remember 2016 For the first time in my life, feeling a level of insecurity, I had never felt before because I was so afraid. I didn't know what it meant for Donald Trump to be elected. Four years later, you know, in so many ways, it's like two realms of a coin, you know, I leave my house and you can just see that there's just so much pain and divisiveness. I come back into my little world and things seem to be really great. And that's a really, really terrible feeling to have Jason. So I know exactly what you're talking about. I wanted to tell you guys, you know, I, there was like a, I've always been sort of like,

okay, Biden's going to win. Biden's going to win. Biden's going to win. And then there's a weird thing that I did. And you guys can see it in the FEC filings, but I gave a million bucks this year in the elections, but I gave 750 to the Senate and I gave 250 to buy. And I didn't understand why I did it. And I explained it to Nat as, she's like, why did you do it that way?

And the best way that I could explain it is, I think that there are so much I don't know about what is driving the vote for president that I wanted to make sure that, there are checks and balances, and the best check and balance was to make sure that, you know, there are checks and balances and the best check and balance was to, you know, make sure that there was actually some Senate check and balance on Biden. I mean on on Trump. So, you know, I'm I'm gonna Jason. I'm gonna accept the result. I'm gonna try to figure out what the fuck I don't know because this is yet another layer of

clearly don't know what the hell is going on But I think I can't tell you pretty assuredly guys any result that's called tonight. I think is going to be Incomplete because they're not going to call Pennsylvania because they're not going to call Philly and So if there are in fact Three no, I think that the exact math is about 350,000 votes that show up in Philadelphia, a gap of 350,000 votes that show up in Philly. Biden will do what he needs to do. By the way, how many people live in Philly? Does anybody know? How many registered voters? Friedberg, is that on? Billy, there's supposed to be like half a million votes coming in there, and I think they've

counted 100,000. I think it'd be more than half a million, usually the DIMS margin is about half a million. The margin? Yeah. Well, Billy is, I want to say, our fifth or sixth largest market. They've actually got it listed on the capital. It's a pretty significant population. It's on that link I sent you there, Nick.

And then if you click on, click to view precinct reporting, you can see the, sorry, it's tough to read. Yeah, I mean, we care about Allegheny, and then what else do we care about? We care about Philly, and you care about those immediate suburbs outside of Philly, like Box County and Chester County. There's four or five ringed suburbs of Philly that used to be the centerpiece of country club republicanism. The counties that elected Arlen Specter to the Senate.

But over time, as the Republicans moved right, they moved more toward the Democrats. Michael, do you know why they're going to stop reporting mail-in ballots tonight? Why would they do that? They just probably just to go home and sleep for a while before they pick it up tomorrow. Pennsylvania, unfortunately, and Michigan as well, are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed. That's why those states in the sun belt, we were all looking for to be an early bell weather

because they can count. 4.81, this is unbelievable. Unbelievable. But what are we seeing here? What's unbelievable, Jamaat? So what that means, Jason, is that in Philadelphia, there are 1,706 precincts. Of those only 82 have reported their ballot tallies.

So you have 95% of the precincts in Philly not reporting. If you take Michael's framework and say there's a swing of 500,000 votes if it goes historically Democrat as it has in the past, you attack on 500,000 net new votes to buy and he eeks out a win. Yeah, it goes blue probably in that scenario. So that becomes about, but remember though, if Trump is holding, if he manages to hold Michigan, he could lose Pennsylvania, it wouldn't matter. He had a little bit of a margin,

he had what he had, three hundred and six electoral votes last time. So if he holds everything he had, minus Pennsylvania, actually he could lose Michigan too, as long as he carried Wisconsin. He has one of those two. But I think Wisconsin's difficult. So, for all of our listeners and watchers in New Jersey, they legalize recreational pots.

So, go out and get yourself some. Yeah, I just took four gummies after my little tirade there because the two zaniks weren't working. So that's going to get really strange for me in about an hour. Just to go back to the reason, I mean, are we going to crack a bottle of wine or what? Somebody already got one. Yeah, this is mostly coffee, but trust me, there's some Irish whiskey in here too. Like, this one speaking to you, but it looks like I'm seeing

reports of the sound of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Unfortunately, all four of those states are going to probably take at least a day Arizona three days, I think, to count. Maybe not this year because so much of the vote was early, maybe it'll move faster, but they are notoriously slow counters. So settle in, it could be the weekend before we have a result. Well. Okay, so let me just drop this. If we don't know tonight, what is going to happen over the next week? Well, we're going to happen over the next week?

Well, we're gonna be, we're gonna be, we're gonna need a lot of gummies Jason. No, I mean joking aside, there are a lot of people. I think everybody's gonna be tense, Jay. I think I don't, I don't think you're gonna see a lot of action one way or the other. I think that people, I think people in America

are incredibly good people. I think that folks are just gonna sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job, do their job. I hope you're right, Shamaaf. But when I see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars, when I see people bringing guns on both sides, horrible people on both sides bringing guns, malicious style, to specifically taunt each other. When you see people getting shot in the street chasing each other down over politics, this

is something that has not happened in our lifetime. I mean, it feels very old, so he kind of remembers the 60s. But for the rest of us under 68, we have not witnessed Americans shooting each other in the street over politics. We have not witnessed people taking people out of their lives because of politics. And this has got Trump's fingerprints on it from top to bottom. You mean since the summer? I mean, what about all the looting and rioting and protests? My point is when Trump got in office, his character and his ability to trigger people, his ability to abuse people, his rhetoric put everybody on Telt, I'm not saying people looting stores are correct. What I'm saying is George Bush and Ronald Reagan your heroes

Bill Clinton Obama other people's heroes on this call There was a there was a a kindness in our differences and when people conceded they conceded with grace and This individual Bush wasn't a hero mind, but Putting it aside. Yeah, I think Reagan was a little bit more. Maybe Bush was. Yeah. Look, I respect him. He's classiness.

And we had a mutual respect for each other that this deranged individual has removed from America. And I think he's a little more going to happen in the next week because I'm not defending. I'm not defending each other leading up to this.'m not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending.

I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending.

I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending.

I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. I'm not defending. the media has been a co-equal partner in sowing this chaos and divisiveness. Because we used to have a media that thought its job was objectivity and neutrality. They ripped the umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy Trump. Why do you think they did? Money. Well, it's very profitable. Trump is made big money.

Picking aside is definitely more profitably, get more subscribers. It might also be that they were absolutely suffering from Trump to Rangeman syndrome, from the fact that the person lies and that he wants to separate children from their parents at the border. Listen, yes, but they're supposed to,

they have a job to do, they're supposed to be neutral, they're supposed to be a rational opposition to Trump. Yeah, but they're supposed to, they have a job to do. They're supposed to be neutral. They're supposed to be irrational opposition to Trump. Yeah, but exactly, but the reason why Trump is doing well or better is because the opposition to him is increasingly irrational. And people have voted for Trump to basically give the middle finger to the media who, you know, again, who are taking sides to these big tech sensors, who don't want us to read things that are critical of Trump, and so on down the line. I tweeted earlier, Rich Lowry had a great post explaining why if Trump was going to win, why that would happen.

It's because he's the only middle finger available to these people. And I don't disagree with you. He's not being, no one's voting for Trump because of his perceived integrity or integrity. Well, first time I've heard integrity in the same sentence as Trump. I'm agreeing with that point.

I'm saying they're not voting for him because of that. They're not voting for him because of even a second term. They're voting for him in order to stop cultural forces. They don't like. I have two things to say. I'm excitedly, by the way. Two things to say. According to the national political writer for the Philly

inquire, Jonathan Tamari, his tweet of 7.35 pm said, actually, it was even greater than we thought, there are still 2.2 million mail-in ballots to be counted in PA, about 87% of the total. So if that's true, then we have that and filling. Number one, the second thing I wanted to say is that if you actually look at the sum counts right now in Pennsylvania, it's 371,591 votes that separate Trump and Biden. So it's,, it's not that much, guys, if 2.2 million votes are outstanding. Yeah, but if it's two, if it's, let's see, 60%, or 2.3, kind of, to 1.3, slash 40%, and it's not, let's say it comes in under that, right?

They probably counted a couple hundred thousand already. I mean, it is still pretty close. Yeah. Really close. Yeah. Really close. Let me ask, Tomat, do you think that part of the reason we're seeing futures markets jump and the dollar jump and all the kind of obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a Trump win, but because the risk of obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a Trump win, but because the risk of a hung election

seems to be coming out of the system right now. That it seems like we're gonna have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would. Florida's gonna be much more clear. That's always a worry state. Georgia's gonna be clear. Obviously, we've still got Pennsylvania to kind of figure out here,

but it seems like this is gonna break one way or another, whereas a lot of folks were concerned, we'd end up in the court fighting over hanging chads for months, and there was concern in the markets for months about that. Do we think that's right? I think that's right. No, I think that people were basically, look, there's a reason to be long-b Biden in the markets, which is essentially that there are certain sectors of the economy that would have done very well. Those sectors of the economy were probably slightly different than Trump's. Under a Trump regime, the reality is that corporate taxes broadly speaking are not going to go up, and so you can forecast higher earnings power for every stock.

And so everything goes up. I think what's happening right now is more of that relief trade of maybe Trump was winning so you could be long everything blindly. But the real canary in the coal mine was like, if you looked at tech futures, tech futures was just going bonkers when they thought he was going to win, because they will probably disproportionately benefit of just having to pay no taxes, because they pay no taxes today.

So, that's kind of like what I think is happening on that side. I mean, Trump is very pro-business, that's why the markets are ripping, right? I don't know. I mean, I feel like there was a real concern. Like there was a non-zero case here. Call it a 30% case that we were going to get stuck for a few months with uncertainty and litigation about where this election was going to go. I think I think it's fair to say that we still we we could still have that David because we don't if this goes to tomorrow I think it's fair to say that that the game theory would tell you that tomorrow whoever loses Pennsylvania should ask for an immediate recount.

Right. Right. And I don't know what they have to. I don't know what the process for that is. If whoever loses Arizona should ask for an immediate recount. You know, whatever is possible under the law, I think both Biden and Trump will exercise, because let's face it, This is the highest stakes possible and so you would hate to not if it's a margin of a few

Thousands of votes or tens of thousands of votes or even a hundred thousand votes and you're allowed to do a recount so If that's the case tomorrow morning if we go to bed in another hour and a half or if you finish this thing in another hour and there is no winner Clear winner. I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow. So David, your thesis is that your thesis is clear winner, the markets rip either way. I think, yeah, clear winner. It's just like there was a lot of grinding expected here

that was going to cause a lot of, you know, trepidation and bouncing for a while that folks were concerned about. And if you feel like you're going to have a clear election act, or whether or not it gets litigated, if you feel clear about where it's going to go, because it's 55, 45, you know, it's clear they're going to ask for a recount. It's good news for everybody. But it makes sense. Look, I think the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed. Stocks disrupt after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts. So if either Trump wins or the

Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip. It doesn't mean Trump has to win, but if we have divided government, gridlock. So between the two of you, the best possible scenario for the market is if Trump clearly wins. Okay, I think we have another bestie on line. Is it the case? If we look at the Senate races, um, I don't know if anyone, I don't know if it's an easy way for us to pull this up. But we have to pull that up, David.

And I just wanted to do so our next bestie, Gasty Brad Gersoners here. He. Oh, yeah. Brad runs a multi billion dollar. I believe you would call it a hedge fund or a fund. Yeah, and he invests large swats of money in the American economy has a very. Is he the best travel investor of all time, Jason Kilgames? He's up there, but he certainly I would I would guess Brad with COVID and airlines being grounded. This has not been the easiest year for you.

So apologies. No, Brad, Brad just made $10 billion on Snowflake. He's fine. Snowflake made a project. Really? Brad, what's going on? Tell us what's going on. What do you know?

Well, hi, all. You know, it's a, it's a fascinating night. I mean, all markets are ripping. We've had a massive reversal in the NASDAQ, a massive reversal in the bond market. And it, it appears that, you know, everybody's now who is worried about a Trump victory is now celebrating a Trump victory.

One of the things people didn't understand about a clear Biden victory is the underlying concern in the bond market. If there's one thing to explain the expansion in multiples in the market this year, is the fact that rates have collapsed. So the 30 and 10 year went from, you know, a couple hundred basis points 20 months ago to basically 50 basis points in August of this year. We've seen them back up about 40% over the course of the last couple months. We see them backing up again tonight. The fact is the market is seriously concerned

about higher rates, which are the result of both a turbocharged economy, too much stimulus on top of vaccines and prophylactics for COVID. And so, you know, if you ask me, you know, we get all excited about the election, we get all excited about stimulus and tax policy, but the biggest elephant in the room is the Fed and rates. That's the 80 to 90% factor in the market this year, in Q4 of 18. And so what we're looking at, we see the NASDAQ now up 350 Bips,

the futures up 350 Bips. So that says Trump's winning, we're not gonna break up the tech companies. We see the S&P starting to rise again and we see the bond market falling saying that we're going to have lower stimulus in the market. So I've heard you all talk about a clear victory certainly is better than not a clear victory, but notwithstanding our own fucking anxiety that we have to live with for the next four years. In the short run, the market is clearly voting on, is voting that Trump is a palatable alternative. And I would tell you to keep your eyes on rates.

Brad, what's up? As much as you're on the market. Brad, more than a great manager of money, you're actually a great human being, but you're also very wired into the Dems. What are the Dems getting wrong if they lose today? Well, you know, first, this is an upset already tonight. Let's call it. This is a massive upset relative to expectations. When are loose? The reversal in the betting markets, the reversal in the stock market, you know, as just earlier tonight, you know, a well-known organizers house on the Democratic side.

I mean, there is despondency. This is a massive upset by Trump. And once again, a massive misread by the progressives and organizers in the Democratic party. You know, I had my 84 year old mother out here from Michigan over the weekend. And I'll tell you that ordinary people over the weekend. And I'll tell you that ordinary people are made to be to feel bad about themselves by people living in these parts. The sanctimony that exists in urban areas,

you know, and coastal elites is just, it's, you know, this is what we're seeing people vote against, right? The idea that you're going to close down the state of Michigan, not allow people to take their boats out on lakes, this is just, you know, not something that people are willing to tolerate. And I think more than anything else tonight, you see a protest vote against sanctimony. And this is just ordinary people saying that, you know, let us live our lives. Don't act so much smarter than us.

And I asked my 84 year old mother, you know, who she voted for. She goes, don't ask me who I voted for. That's not your business, right? That's her way of telling me, right, that, you know, that she's frustrated by how people in San Francisco make her feel living in Michigan. I think that's, I think that's where that's so smart. But David Sacks, before you talk, he's talking about you. Well, no, look, I mean, I'm on Twitter and I echo change to stream. I mean, it's usually VCs. Basically, they can't comprehend how somebody could have a

political opinion that's different than them without that person literally being evil. I mean, I see this on Twitter over and over and over again. I'm like really? Yeah, but but but but this is like most of Silicon Valley and I'm just like look I mean political opinions are like assholes. I mean everyone's got one and to think that yours is a lot prettier than everybody else's But ridiculous Welcome everybody to the Podcast if you're just tuning in well the family are just ended Brad Brad can I ask a question?

Brad, what do we do? Yeah, for me, listen, a Trump victory, the reality is we've learned to tolerate the anxiety over the last four years, and I think the market's fully prepared to manage its way through last four years. And I think the markets fully prepared to manage its way through another four years of Trump. So I think that's, you know, the reason we're seeing the futures react the way they are, is it's a whole lot of nothing.

I mean, the fact of the matter is- If you're not asking how do we get off of our horses if we're on horses, the social elites? Well, I mean, this is going to take a complete rewiring, right? Like an abandonment of, you know, the, I mean, listen, you and I all know the exodus of people out of the Bay Area right now, right? The fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics in the Democratic Party in the state of California vacated long ago. And, you know, that is not a recipe for victory. It's not a recipe for victory at a national level.

It's not a recipe for victory or tolerable victory at a state level. I think we're going to have the single largest migration of economic, the single largest economic migration in the history of this country, the convergence of COVID, which allows people to work from anywhere. And the risk of changing tax policies in states like California is going to cause mass economic migration. And I think that people are voting with their feet and they're voting with their wallets and they're voting, you know, tonight in loud numbers, no matter where this comes down, this is an upset and

a defeat for what Democrats expected to occur tonight. Do you buy the framing, Brad, that this is about political correctness versus cancel culture? Yeah, I think that's a big part of it. I think it comes, it's amplified this year because of COVID, but it comes down to something very simple, which I talked about. You know, sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants, right? She's like, oh, you fancy people who live in San Francisco.

You have all the answers, right? This is just the way that people in Indiana and Michigan and Ohio, they're made to feel every day. They'll sit around watching Fox News. These are not people who are racist, right? Timoth, I heard you say earlier tonight, the idea that Trump could pull what he's pulling. And yet, if you talk to all of our friends, they would have you believe that it was just a small band of, you know, racist pickup drivers carrying Trump flags. I mean, they are, their head is in the sand. Yeah.

This is CEOs. Yeah. You know, these are business owners. These are small business owners. These are farmers. These are old people. These are young people. I mean, the millennials, you can't find a millennial

in the state of Indiana or Michigan, who supports Biden. Right. You can't find them. And just to add to that point about what they think about people in San Francisco, why should they think that when tech giants and the people who work at these big tech companies like Twitter and Facebook are asserting a right to censor articles that they don't like

and trying to assert a power over what the American people get to see and read. I mean, what a campaign issue that was for Trump in the last two weeks. I mean, whatever Twitter and Facebook thought they were doing to protect or help the Biden campaign, I mean, what a blunder. I mean, to give Trump the issue of censorship

in the last two weeks, and then the extraordinary thing, you know, what a blunder. I mean, to give Trump the issue of censorship in the last two weeks. And then the extraordinary thing, we had that congressional hearing in the Senate Commerce Committee that I wrote a blog about. And the amazing thing is right on the heels of that, after that hearing, when we heard Jack Dorsey, he got that, he just got grilled. He got ripped apart by the senators.

Twitter doubled down on censorship after that. There was an article by Jonathan Turley talking about they had censored a whole new batch of accounts. And so if anything, you know, it'll be really interesting to see. I think, you know, if you think back four years ago, Facebook was really for whatever reason it became the scapegoat for the election.

I think this time around it's gonna be Twitter because they have been so arrogant and they're assertion of their right to censor due points they don't lock. And if the Republicans hold on to the Senate and or the presidency, I think you're going to see Jack Dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they're going to target. And the paradox Friedberg is that had they just left that New York post story be tweeted? Because it's the New York post. This is, I mean, you may not like the New York post.

It may have a story to pass or reputation. But if that had been a New York time story, Washington Post story or an MSNBC story or a CNN story, it would not have been banned because it's a Rupert Murdoch, New York Post story, and because it was salacious, somebody mid-level inside of Twitter decided to ban it. How much of that do you think plays into what we're seeing here tonight, Friedberg, which is that this is not a small event. This is a large group of people saying, I don't want anything to do with the Democratic party anymore.

I just think back to 2016, and everyone has their own priorities, their own individual things that matter to them. I remember in 2016, or leading up to it, I spent a lot of time in what we call kind of the rust belt and the farm belt. And if you'll remember, this was around the time of kind of the transgender bathroom,

you know, movement. Alina, yeah, yeah, yeah. And this was felt very much like a coastal elite topic of interest. If you're in the rust belt and the farm belt, you're like, what the fuck? How is this possibly something people are spending time on and arguing about and thinking about?

And the disconnect between the priorities of the individuals that live in the vast part of the United States versus what they read about and hear about, others treat as their priority. I think it's what partially helped support Trump getting elected in the first place, because the things that mattered to them that they felt were highly consequential were completely unrelated and not being paid attention to while other folks that had the money and the power in the big cities were focused on social matters and social issues

and liberal decisions that they thought were inconsequential or shouldn't be a priority. And I think that fast forward to 2020 and it hasn't moved in the right direction, it's moved in the wrong direction where the disconnect is no longer a passive difference of priority, it's actually become an active interest moving against you. And so if you live in Corn Belt or the Rust Belt or vast parts of rural America, to your point, you're now not only feeling that there's this disconnect, but you're also feeling like this point of view is becoming overwhelming and stopping you from having a point of view. And I think whether your point of view is rooted in fact or not, you can base that however you want. It just feels like it's becoming

a silencing effect and not just kind of a, you know, ignoring the effect. And I think let me let me just jump in here. I want to come back to this, but I want to just jump to something that Bogot just tweeted Andrew Bogot. Thank thank you for this Detroit Philadelphia and Milwaukee, all planning to post vote counts tomorrow as they work through absentee backlog. So if we look at the counts, that really could mean that, you know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are either too close to call or not even yet ready to be called until tomorrow morning. I think let's take a pause here and let's go through what the swing states are and where they stand at this very moment.

Arizona is an important toss up state, correct? Let's pull up Arizona neck. Let's all just take a moment to look at Arizona. We're going to go through about six or seven of these states and just get our bearing right now because when we did the quick survey about 45 minutes ago, four of us believed Trump was going to win two of us believe one of us emotionally and of us somewhat emotionally believed that's where we were at. Guys, before you start this, hold on, before you start this, I just

want to read a tweet, two tweets. Number one from Nick built in. When do we get to vote on when we fire Nate Silver? And the second one, wait, wait, wait, the second one, which is even funnier, he's named Nate Silver because all his picks come in second place. Oh, Oh, I mean, I was tweeting you guys for the election. I mean, the Nate Silver thing was a joke. He was first of all, he was saying that Biden was 90% favorite. And at the same time, he said that if Trump won Pennsylvania,

then he would become the favorite. But you knew that Trump was a few points of the margin of area. in Pennsylvania. So how can you be 90% favorite, but Pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck. I mean, even his own internal projections weren't consistent with each other. Well, there's one.

So we're one of the best sports predictors in history. He's been an absolute genius. He stepped into politics and now you guys are lashing. Yeah, but this is the worst case of analytics since Tampa Bay pulled their pitcher in history, he's been an absolute genius. He stepped into politics and now you guys are lashing. Yeah, but this is the worst case of analytics since Tampa Bay pulled their picture in the sixth inning of the World Series. I mean, if we look at what's happening, it's very clear that there are people who are either lying to the pollsters because they're embarrassed about their choice, or they may actively be trolling

the pollsters. So when a pollster calls them, they lie to them to have this exact moment happen, just like the TikTokers all registered for a Trump event. So now we have a level of trolling going on at a national level. That's the poll. I think it's a simpler explanation and that's that I think the simpler explanation is that pollsters are empiricists and their experts and like a lot of experts you can kind of you can kind of interpret the Trump phenomenon of overperforming now two elections in a row is a kind of revolt against the experts and they don't see their biases. So the way they should, they're blind to certain things.

There's really no excuse for how bad they missed this one because... Michael, they may have been experts yesterday, but they're not experts today. Well, this is, I mean, this is what Trump does. This is why people support him in spite of the fact that I don't think anyone disagrees with Jason's opinion of his character is that they love sticking it to the egg heads, you know? Brad, Brad, what happens to media? Like what happens to how we conduct ourselves?

Like do you read the New York Times tomorrow and think, wow, I'm gonna trust the Times? I'm not saying you did before, but I'm just using it as a generality to sort of ask the question, like what happens to media? Yeah, I think I believe in all of these polls and all of these mainstream press.

I mean, this validates the arguments effectively that Trump has been making, right? That you've been told lies, that these polls were lies that everybody was trying to manipulate you. I mean it's this is a validation of those who are flipping the middle finger at Washington and at the coast and they're saying we're not going to be told how to believe how to think how to vote. How to wear masks. How to wear masks and you know There's a dangerous side to this side. 100%.

It's the end of expertise. Who can we ever trust? This is Putin. Ironically, it's the experts who got masks wrong. Remember that at the time that I was saying that we should wear masks, the WHO was saying we shouldn't. They were deliberately lying to keep PPE from being overrun by. So the experts have done a horrible job on COVID too, Jason.

I mean, look, I think that's part of the reason. Yes, I know, but now the cynicism of Trump and his approach to absolutely undermine Fauci and say to an admonished people wearing masks while on stage is a level of danger and is a, and is a, what, what, what, what? That's insane. So, so we know that mask work. You actually were a proponent of it. Yes. Of course, mask, mask should never become a poor girl. Trump last week said don't wear a mask. No, he never said he was, he literally made fun of a person wearing a mask. Let's just run through each of the states right now. That's completely your fake two.

Can I, can I, can I cut his response to that Jason real quick? Yes, you can. Okay, look, look, I, you know, I wrote a blog post but going back to April 1st saying that we should, that mass should be the policy and it should never have become a political issue, okay? It should have been a bipartisan response

and it's unfortunate it became a political issue. But, and I'm not forgiving that, and it took Trump way too long to get on board with mass. I think right around the time I blog was published a few days afterwards, first he said, it was optional. You can do it if you want. It took him about another three months to actually say that mass wrote a good idea. I agree.

That had he just gone all in on a mass policy, I think this would not even be a close election. I mean, that was probably the single biggest blunder that he made politically this year. 100% agree. Okay, so we agree on that. But look, you're missing the other half of it, which is what is our COVID policy going to be today?

And the reality is that Joe Biden and all these blue state governors are still on the record as being in favor of lockdowns. And in fact, they are doing lockdowns. The only reason why Michigan and Wisconsin, but I say especially Michigan would ever be in play tonight, is because of lockdowns. Absolutely. Agreed. It's a resounding rebuke of lockdowns.

Let's just sip through these real quick. Arizona, pull it up, Nick. Arizona, here we are, Biden 54% of we round up, 45 for Donald Trump 75% looks like Arizona is going to Biden. Next up, let's take a quick look at Iowa. Next up, let's take a quick look at Iowa. Iowa is 64% in and we're essentially a dead heat with. Yeah, I was going to Trump, Jason. I was going to Trump.

You can see how that numbers come down. Yeah, as the election day vote starts to trickle in, that's going to try to change the growth. So they were one of the states that did the drop-off balance, Malin-Ballett's first. Yes, I think that's fair to say, yeah. Okay, Ohio, critically important. Let's take a look at Ohio while we're here. Ohio. Wow, that's really flipped hard. With a commanding lead. Yeah, you can kiss that one goodbye. Oh, hi, I was going to have a nice time. Just to be here. North Carolina, we are now within one. Can we just all agree if we were, I mean, right?

If we're momentum investors, I mean, this thing is, this is a disaster for Biden right now. This is a disaster for Biden. And on top of this, all our talk is about the presidency. They're not going to get the senate either now nor uh... tell us is running ahead of uh... trump in north carolina so i think he's home free and uh... well the vote in main is not fully in yet there's only about forty one percent columns has uh... forty thousand vote lead

which is a call and keeps her seat that is the biggest that that is like the mega upset. The Democrats were already counting her. They were targeting her two years ago after she voted for Kavanaugh. Yeah. Okay. The best said that as we think through this, by the way, just get this in mind. CNN right now shows, I mean, I see an NZ had must be up their ass or we don't know what we're doing, but they show one ninety two to one fourteen Biden. Well, yeah, because they call it California. They call California when the polls close.

So that's fifty five. It went. Yeah. Okay, North Carolina. Here we go. Uh, we, or we did North Carolina, I believe, yeah, we're at ninety five percent reporting and Trump has a, uh, a lead that looks like he's. Yeah. Unless there's a lot of Charlotte out, I think that North Carolina is over and that by the way that percentage is outside the recount

Window I think you have to be within 1% Okay, let's take a look at George for a quick second. We said that was a week Michael You know if we've counted North Carolina's mail-ins I think that I think they were all dumped at the outset. Right. In North Carolina, one of the reasons why we were watching them tonight is that, like Florida, they can count in advance. And so they dumped, they dumped a bunch right at the outset

here. By the way, I just got to, by the way, I just checked the betting lines. Trump is over a three to one favorite to one the election right now. Well, later it goes, the more significant that is. Wait, why did it come down to 200 on Bavado? That's the lowest it's been.

That's interesting. I just got three to one on one of the sides. Okay, two to one. Yeah. That's the lowest it's been. Right, you need to start calling these sites. If you assume that Biden takes Arizona, Trump takes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia. Let's go to you.

Let's give him pencil. If Biden wins Arizona, he could lose Michigan. So Georgia is currently 54%. I'm just declared that Biden won Arizona. Oh, well, okay, that's a quick call. Biden has to take Pennsylvania though. Okay, so now this is what I'm saying. This is why this is in place. So if you assume Biden takes Arizona, so that's now on the table. Now, if you say that Trump takes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, Ohio, etc.,

he still needs to pull out a victory in Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. Otherwise, get this. Or Nevada. Well, actually Nevada would be enough. Nevada would be enough. Otherwise, let's go to Minnesota. Guys, hold on. Just let me finish, please. It's going to be if Trump, so if that happens, Trump needs to win one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. Otherwise, it's 272.68 Biden. Wow. Okay. So here's Minnesota. Let's just pause for a second. Biden with a Biden's got a 56% to 42 with 54% in. So there's a lot more to come in. But I think Michael, you would agree that's a bridge too far. I never thought Minnesota was in play. The Republicans, the Republicans put a brave face on there and they are making some gains in the rural areas, but Minnesota was never in play. Okay, time to go to Wisconsin. Time to go to Wisconsin. Let's take a pause

here. We got to do this step by step, everybody. Wisconsin, 51% to 47% Donald Trump with 54% that too. I think feels like a bridge too far Or do we not know if they didn't really know? We don't know. I think Wisconsin is another one who's probably counted their election day vote first. So, so by this, it'll very much live in Wisconsin. Yeah, exactly. Milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow morning. Yeah.

Michigan, we need to take a quick look at Michigan and then we're almost done. Okay. We need to take a quick look at Michigan and then we're almost done. Okay, here's Michigan, Donald Trump at trending to 55% to 44% for Biden, only 44% are in. And let's be clear, is this Detroit doesn't come in until tomorrow? Okay, is that Michigan, Detroit doesn't come in? Yeah, that Wayne County vote is very low. Yeah, look at that, that Wayne County vote is very low. Yeah. Look at that 28% lot

of more, lot more votes there. Okay. So we don't know about Michigan. Michigan is very much up in the air. That's a, that's a pretty good margin for Trump there, but I would say it's very much up in the air. But by the way, if you put Arizona and Biden's column, he can lose Michigan. Let's take a look at Pennsylvania one more time. Actually, and Tramoth is right. He could lose, he could lose either Michigan or Pennsylvania and still he could have. Trump needs to win Michigan Wisconsin, one of Michigan Wisconsin or Minnesota.

So basically, forgive Minnesota. If Detroit, so then if Detroit doesn't show up and Milwaukee and Green Bay don't show up, Trump wins. Pennsylvania. But Tremoth does that assume that he wins Pennsylvania? Yes, if I give you, if we give him Pennsylvania. But, Chamath, does that assume that he wins Pennsylvania? Yes, if I give you, if we give him Pennsylvania. So, again, this is why I think, guys, it feels like Biden. I'm a little shaky on my prediction right now. Actually, I think the, the betting markets are showing

it's tightened almost to even. And let me ask Brad a question, Brad, if the betting markets are showing it's tightened almost to even. Let me ask Brad a question. Brad, if the betting market is saying it's almost even, I mean, analysis we just did isn't missing any information. Why are the futures markets still trading up one and a half points, and why are things still working? You know, I think that, listen, the stock markets ripped the last two days, assuming that Biden's gonna win.

And I think what the markets are starting to price in is that this is not gonna be a blue wave. There's no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's gonna be a divided Senate, it's gonna be hard to pass legislation that's gonna be overly onerous. That the stimulus package is gonna be overly onerous, that the stimulus package is going to be smaller, not larger, which is why the rates are backing

up. So, I think from a public market's perspective, the idea that we're going to have some checks and balances in place, it can live with either the devil we know, or it can live with Biden, but it doesn't want Biden with Elizabeth Warren as Treasury Secretary. So democracy survives. I think scenario three is starting to look very possible. Biden and a Republican Senate and I can sleep soundly with that.

Okay. I don't know what's going to happen. I mean, you guys, I don't know what's going on. I'm not really looking at, but I mean, 1..9 is I mean, that's like that's a huge significant right there. It's still good. I give you that, but I don't know those numbers. It's moving Phil. It's moving fast. I want to take it down to 180. I want to go back to this topic that that's brought up. Okay guys, look, we'll have a winner and it's going to be close. Ish, but think of how many people, like, isn't there any empathy for all these people that are that just feel so completely shut out of the system? Like, what do we do tomorrow?

what do we do tomorrow? Like irrespective actually of whether Trump wins or Biden wins, I think Brad's right, we're going to basically get nothing much is going to happen at that level. But what do we do at the like on Main Street? Like what are we doing to close the gap between folks so that, you know, this entire cohort, like literally, I don't care whether Biden wins by the popular vote by 5 million or 7 million, you're talking about tens of millions of people. Bill Gurley is now on the line. Uh, another one of our bestie guesties, Bill.

Thanks for joining us. You heard the question being teed up here. This is neck and neck. This is not something anybody, at least pollsters came anywhere close to predicting. And Chimaltz question, I think is a really valid one. Who is got a greater chance of bringing the country back together and maybe leading from the middle

and maybe healing this wound? Because this has been the worst four years. I believe in any of our lifetimes in terms of the anxiety and the anger between people who used to be able to get a question. Only Jay, well, I want to know Bill's opinion because by the way, Bill Gurley is the best co-vis. Jason, Jason, Bill Gurley is the best venture capitalist

in the world. Phil, Phil. Phil, stop. Phil, stop hijacking our fucking broadcast. Go ahead, Gurley. So thanks for having me on. I think you guys have done a really good job of breaking down why people have miss estimated this thing there was a

you know that there's such a role urban split there was a there was a really good new york ties daily podcast about two weeks ago where they interviewed uh... rural democrats and and pencil vanu that it switched to trombon and and all the voices they echoed were very similar to a Brad walk through with his mother and so I do think there's a a true lack of empathy for the the center states and the rural areas from the Coastal elites and I'd say part of breaking any of it down would be somehow

Trying to separate that I think a bigger issue that has really been on my mind lately is just how tribal everyone's gotten. And I've come to believe that the way you can probably just ruin your mind the most is to just join a tribe and quit thinking about things. And the number of people I know on both sides that have run off to their tribe is shocking to me and it's just not a way to go about being smart because you know and if you anyone that makes fun of a you know a religion that's extreme or something it's all the same shit like you're just believing dogma for the sake of it. So, one of the things that I worry about about a Trump victory is just very tactically in my life, and maybe it's part of living in California, but a whole bunch of people and things that I want

to get solved become more manic if he wins, like my kids school and the companies that I work with and COVID, quite frankly, I think that we can't get past COVID with Trump because the TDSers are so convinced that it has to be problematic. And it's just, you know, so I don't know the exact path to solve it, but I do worry about just being in a world where everyone hates each other. And it just doesn't seem solvable that way. Well, this is why I think, you know, this scenario, which we've called the soft landing, where let's say you had a Biden victory

by two electoral votes that Republicans hold on to the Senate. I think the radical left gets a big, I'd say, rebuke or a shock. And we have basically divided government in Washington, but it takes the whole temperature down because Trump gets replaced by Biden, but you've kind of got, basically Joe and his old pal Mitch are in a power sharing arrangement in Washington.

It could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years. Temperature will go down, There'd be kind of this, you know, healing process, if you will. But, you know, there wouldn't be a whole lot of new sort of legislation that we have to worry about. I think we would get what we want, which is the ability to ignore Washington for four years. Yeah, but we wouldn't get a solution to really what ails us, which is the fact that there's all these people that just feel completely shut out. And that really bothers me at some very basic level, which is like, I just think like, you know, I fought my family, my parents, just escaped some third world fucking shit hole

to go to Canada. And you know, Canada gave us a lot, but it still wasn't enough for me. I crawled and scratched to get into the United States. Things work out, but I don't feel like I have a right to all of a sudden, I don't know, just like look down on other people or make people feel like shit or not allow people to- Look, you actually think Shemoth at Biden

is gonna do that, or do you think Biden's gonna be? No, but Jason, I think middle ground, no, who, who, no, I have a speech with the Republicans in the Senate and the Democrats. No, what I'm saying is independent of what happens, we're gonna have basically,

we're gonna have a photo finish. And what I think what Brad said is right, the fact that we are in a photo finish means that there are a lot of people in pain. And I think we have a responsibility to get our heads out of our asses and stop this sanctimonious holier than thou bullshit. I agree with Brad when he says that it really hits the nerve with me because I feel like there are a lot of people. We work with them all. It's right within the tech culture.

And all these fuck bags think they know what they're talking about all the time. And we're doing a disservice to so many Americans. And we need to wake up and that's what bothers me. The idea that there are so many people who feel like they're just getting so fucked really bothers me, that bothers me. So I can ignore Trump.

I'll ignore his bullshit because honestly, he's done nothing. He will do nothing. He is a complete fucking void. But whether it's Trump or Biden in a 272.68 election, the fact that so many people still use this guy as a vessel, I don't know, that makes me more upset. I think some people, I think everyone thinks, has some degree of empathy to the problem.

I think there are different points of view on the solution, which is where the stuff gets realized. The one point of view is we should have less government involved in our lives and our businesses and the other point of view is we should have more support and help from the government. And that's where things diverge very quickly. It doesn't feel to me like anyone in politics is necessarily ignoring what you're highlighting. And I don't think anyone in America does, from the rich to the poor to the left to the

right. I think the solutions are miscast because for example, like what are we supposed to do, like with our higher educational institutions, the people that are churning out, all these folks that are meant to go and collaborate and find middle ground. I mean, I clearly, like all of this says, our educational facilities are completely failing. From grade school, all the way through to high school, community college, college, grad school, it's all just a contrived piece of shit, right? We are completely putting out one in two people for failure. Okay. So that much is clear.

So I don't see politicians fixing that on either side of the aisle. What I mean, I'm honestly, what are we supposed to do? Well, I mean, I just might I just suggest that two things. I just might I just suggest that two things. Number one, I think in these results that you see, there's a, you know, there is extraordinary frustration, right, with this, with the state of affairs, the fact that Trump in the middle of COVID, After four years of torturous anxiety inducing tweets, could even be in a neck to neck race to when this election tells you how devastatingly bad people feel about how they're being treated, I think that I said recently, we have to redraft the social contract. This idea, we've been living under social contract

drafted post-war award-to, that it's pre-technology revolution. We have a concentration of wealth today in the world and in this country like we've never seen. And we have Republicans that are setting their ways who say, no universal healthcare, no reform of the education system, you have Democrats who are demanding that you have universal basic income. I think you have to have pragmatic, smart, younger, politics. I mean, the fact that we have two old white men,

I mean, neither of these folks is on top of their game. I mean, neither of these, like this is, I mean, you compare Biden to Pete Buttigieg. I mean, Buttigieg is, Buttigieg walks into the lion's den of Fox TV and tames the lion every night. Every night, right? Let's get Pete Buttigieg solving some of these problems. Let's get some younger ideas on the Republican side, solving these problems. But we're going to have to rearchitect that social contract. No doubt about it.

And I think the second thing is that to me, this is going to be a wake-up call to the nominating processes in both parties. But let's be clear, Mike Pence has his roadmap for how to win the election, Indiana Governor. He's going to tap into the same fears that Trump tapped into. These fears aren't going away, right? The exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease. We see it every day out here. And so I think you're going to have to have, you know, the Democratic Party who

nominates people and puts people, you know, forward who can, you know, who can tap into this. Brad, who do you like if it wasn't Biden? Who would you like? Buttigieg. Buttigieg's, he's a South, this was the, you know, an openly gay mayor of my hometown in Indiana. Do you think he can sell? Right. Who fought, who fought in Afghanistan?

And who goes on Fox News every damn night right and has a conversation that leaves Republicans saying oh that guy's pretty smart right yeah I agree that he's a tremendous political talent do you think that he's pragmatic enough Brad or he's he would he would end up veering more towards a sort of like politically correct leftist socialist agenda and then have the same result. I think that there is a, there's been a doctrine in the democratic party

that to win the primary, you got a veer to the left, right, you got a contend with Bernie, you got a contend with Elizabeth Warren. But ultimately, that's a losing strategy in the election. And so I think you're going to have the emergence of a middle of the country governor, middle of the country mayor, somebody like Pete, who's going to run on a smart, younger, pragmatic, democratic ticket. I think that's a winning formula.

I mean, I think that's the Clinton formula. Obama was a bit of an anomaly, but the Clinton formula was a conservative, pragmatic form of a Democratic party leadership. I mean, I suspect that in the next three or four days, I'm gonna get a call from the Democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me. And my message to them is, you guys can go fuck yourselves until you figure this out.

Because to your point, Brad, it is absolutely shameful that we're in, no, no, I'm serious, that we are in. I know you are. That's what I love. Well, that, that, that, that, Chimoth, I mean, what you should tell them to do is go form a DLC. Remember the, the Democrat leadership committee that Bill Clinton forms? So remember what Bill Clinton did, you know, when he won in 92, we had three straight Republican

presidential terms, Ron Reagan, incredibly successful president, then his successor, basically Reagan won a, Bush won a third term for Reagan, but he was a weak candidate. And Clinton came in there, what did he do? He triangulated. He tacked toward the center. And you know, he he actually passed a lot of bipartisan legislation. David, David, David, let me make this even more blunt. Okay. My million bucks will grow to 10 million dollars a per election to 50 million dollars per election as I get older. Okay. So these mother fuckers

want a single goddamn dollar for me. What I want first is a root cause analysis to understand what is actually going on. So to your point, before you fix it, you need to be honest and identify the problem. Well, I mean, I think that I think it's because the issue that Trump ran against was that Joe Biden was a Trojan horse for radical, for a radical left that really owns the Democratic Party right now. That's what he ran against.

Bill Gurley, what do you think the issues are that if we were gonna try to have a great reconciliation between these two parties, between Middle America and the coastal elites where you have spent large swats of your life, I think perhaps you're the only person here who has lived in both places. Middle of America. You said he's from Indiana. Okay, but you don't care.

I trust your judgment on these issues. Well, what does the, what does the, what are the coast need to understand about the people who believe, who live between the coasts and what they're trying to express to us. And how can we, as coastal occupants and citizens, do to kind of bridge this gap, other than just moving to Austin and getting the hell out of California, which is evolving,

which is what I feel like doing at this point. Well, two comments on this. One, having listened to as much as I can on all the vote of conversations, including this call. I'm not 100% sure that these people feel unrepresented. I think a lot of them want to be left alone. And so part of what's being engineered or what they fear is being engineered is someone sitting in a city with views that are very different than them telling them that this is the world they have to live by. And I think the lockdown fit in with that, but a lot of other things too. That put the daily podcast I mentioned, you know, there was this guy just saying,

what does Nancy Pelosi know about what I want in my day-to-day life? You know, and so there is a notion of being left alone. Brad's story about his mom was like, hey, we're fine here. Like, don't bother me. And so there's a difference between trying to solve a problem form and being empathetic to the point of view. And I would say having spent a lot of time in these areas and being a slow talker and sometimes made fun of for that, there's unquestionably a type of social bias against

rural Americans in urban cities. There's just no doubt. It's the only joke you're allowed to tell without getting rebuked. In other words, we can make fun of the red knacks and we can all day long. All day long we can do a Bill Gurley impersonation or... No, they're either in the right or in the right area. They're in the moral. I mean, and this is the thing that I don't understand when I grew up and I'm curious other people's opinions here and I'll let anybody who wants to jump in on this,

it feels like the lessons I was taught in the 70s and 80s, which were America is strong because we're a melting pot. We take the best of all the cultures, and we try to make our own out of it. And that you get to make choices for your life, and in your city, town, and state state that don't have to be the same as the ones we make in New York. So if you wanna have a handgun, and you wanna put it on your waistband in Texas, or wherever, and in New York city,

we don't wanna have handguns in this city, because it's a little bit more crowded, we can have that difference and we can coexist. And I don't know when we lost this script that what makes America great is the differences and that people living in different parts of a very large, diverse country can have different opinions about abortion

and what month abortion is allowed to occur at or the owning of a gun or how tall a building can be built. When did that get taken off the table and who took it off the table? You know who took it off table was these hysterical lips. And I think the hysterical as much as this far right Trump, flags on pickup trucks surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible to watch. I have equal to staying for hysterical lips, trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch that they can't have a gun

when they've never even been to a goddamn ranch and they've never had to use a gun to protect their family because a cop coming to your ranch is gonna take 45 minutes. And that's what America needs to get back to is respecting each other's different lifestyles, whether you're an atheist or you're devoutly Catholic, Vivaldi for wrongs, let people live their goddamn lives. I think it's in a stew point, Bill.

And J. Cal, can we run down California next? Yeah. I'm very curious how Prop 22 is doing. And Prop 22 is ahead little girly. Oh, Jesus, the goddamn people are allowed to be. Can you tell everyone what Prop 22 is and why? Yeah, please. Why? Why? It got better. Yeah, but and and and and it would transition to a whole bunch of conversations about politics that I feel more passionate about than who gets elected, which is, in order to solve the problems that everyone's upset about within inequality and whatnot, I think you have to have massive

innovation and you have to have job growth. And I don't know of any waves in history where you get a whole bunch of improvement in standard living for broad swaths of a population without being positive to be aligned with job growth. And where I'm going with this is my biggest concern about Washington. I used to say the main reason Silicon Valley works is because it's so fucking far away from DC. And Silicon Valley works because it's so fucking far away from DC. And it's because regulation is the friend of the incumbent, and it's the opposite of innovation. It lots in things, and it's very resistant to change. And Matt Ridley's new book, how innovation works, goes through this over a very, very long

period of time. It's fantastic. And he talks about why Europe's gotten stuck. And like the top 50 market cap companies in Europe, there's no new intern in 30 years or something like that. Because of this, anyway, Prop 22 is a California proposition reaction to a law that was put on the California books called AB5. To the best of my knowledge,

and this is consistent with the editorial groups at the LA Times, the San Francisco Chronicle and the San Diego Tribune, is that it was written entirely by a union, the SEIU, who has no representation over drivers or gig workers, whatsoever. They represent service industry workers. And they would like to represent

who were drivers, but they don't today. And I think about this like a bunch of people living in Nevada trying to pass a law for the citizens of California. Unfortunately, because of regulatory capture, which I think is unfortunate on both sides of the aisle, the unions able through a woman named Lorraine Gonzales, is able to get the state capacity law

that basically targeted gig workers, which was this new job type that has all these fantastic benefits. Anyway, immediately thereafter, there were several industries who were like, oh, we don't want this for us. So them and their unions and constituents started calling on Sacramento with Lorraine and Gizallas and and and and carving them out one by one so by the by the time AB5 was set to be put in action there over a hundred industries that have been carved out because it was a stupid law written just to target a single industry and

it was written with political donor dollars. Now in a moment that I would say is completely outside of my realm of what I expected, all of the news papers, all the editor awards for all of the major newspapers in California came to the conclusion that this was a bad law, that this was crony capitalism, written with donor dollars, and they all got behind prop 22, which is because we have this valid initiative in California is a way for the voters to tell Sacramento that they're full of shit, and that looks like what's happening right now. Sorry for the long answer. No, no, it's a great answer.

And what's particularly infuriating about this, and listen, you and I are both, you know, investors and companies impacted by this, is that there's a group of people who've been exempted from this. And the list of people exempted all seem to be just slightly more powerful and slightly better paid salespeople, fishermen, psychologists, surgeons, dentists, engineers, architects, lawyers, et cetera. And if this had passed, or if it still does pass, because we're only at 15 or 20% of people

have been counted so far, but it's looking like Prop 22 will pass. Well, in one of the businesses I run inside.com, we had to tell all of the freelancers, we were hiring who are writers, that they would lose their gig work with us because they could only write five stories a year or 10 stories a year. And Vox, one of the big publishing companies, which is incredibly left leaning as left as it gets, they stopped hiring people in California and they fired and laid off all their California freelance writers.

Nick. And what this does to people who are doing gig economy, 70% of them are working part time. Nick, can you go back to, I need to switch topics. Nick, can you go to Georgia, please, for a second, little, little late breaking data, over 400,000 votes outstanding in Atlanta and the suburbs. Um, how close is the Georgia? Let's see how, oh my god, it's a statistical dead heat. If you add back in 400,000 for all Biden, now I'm just saying that's not where it's going to be, but, uh, they want to buy, yeah. I mean Atlanta, Atlanta should go 70% by. Oh sure, it will, maybe 75, 80, but I guess he'd have to be 100 to zero.

Can you catch up if I'm reading that right? Anyone here cynical enough to think that there's some operative in these states holding these on purpose so that they can be the center of importance tomorrow? No, I just think it's almost midnight on the East Coast and people are tired and they're going to go home and have a shitshow or a shave and start again tomorrow. There even early is so successful. Early always knows how to diagnose the individual motivation. And you can diagnose the shit out of it. I just think about one guy's

motivates and then he's figured the whole thing out. He makes a billion dollars over and over and over. So, so interest bill girly. True. Here's what it comes down to. So Trump needs to win two out of four of the states. Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan. And he's got to win two of those fours. So it's got to be probably Pennsylvania and Michigan or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But he's got to win.

If he loses Nevada, he needs to win two out of those three Rust Belt states. Or he wins Nevada plus like a Pennsylvania. Yeah. This is going to be really awesome. Michigan's going to go to Trump. This is going to come down to Pennsylvania. Yeah. This is gonna be, this is gonna be really Michigan is gonna go to Trump is gonna come down to Pennsylvania and really to the to the Philly suburbs. I was reading on Twitter, election official in Michigan says don't expect results before Friday. That's crazy. Well, by the way,

I mean, so, so, I mean, let's just think for a second how extraordinary it is that Trump looks like he might win Michigan. I mean, just to go back to the, you know, the theory of the case that we were laying out earlier about how China, about how Trump picked up this, this China trade issue four years ago. And, and this, this time he combined it with the lockdown issue. I mean, it's really amazing that that state is leaning Trump right now. Michigan was two issues. It was, you know, working class Democrats feeling like Trump standing up for them with respect

to China, and it was lockdown. And lockdown was an overwhelming issue, my friends and my folks in Michigan for sure. Can we go back to Prop 22 for a second Jason? Because I think that this is, this is an issue of extreme importance. You know, one of the things that Bill didn't say is, you know, we're talking earlier, Chimoff brought up, you know, what's the third way? You know, we've, we've, we've, we've built a social contract

on the back of kind of W2 tight employment for the better part of the last 70 years. We now have a massive part of the economy that's gigging it's not just, this is all freelancers. This is all part-time workers and post-COVID, this is just a massive portion of the economy and the idea that we're going to tie all benefits to W2 is just totally ass and I and it's got to be re-architected. And what Prop 22 does is say it's IC plus, it's independent contractor plus benefits, right? It's this idea that we don't have to tie benefits to W2 employment, right? So the nonsensical no argument against Prop 22 22 that this was an abandonment of the employee is just that

it combines flexibility with benefits and You know from my perspective you're gonna see if Prop 22 passes, which I think it will tonight It's gonna be the architecture that New York and many other states follow There's certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB5 example. But we also know that it's not sufficient just to have a bunch of workers with zero health care. And so I think that this is a hats off to Dordash, Inst you know, Uber and left trying to design something that is a middle way. And, you know, Chimath, if we don't have politicians designing a middle way, right,

then we need leadership out of the business community designing a middle way. Well, that, so you just said something so profound and I was gonna, I would like to build on that. I think what California shows is that if you have a completely democratic up and down ticket and it veers too far to this coastal, naval gazing socialist nanny state, then it requires money and companies to basically level the playing field

because the Republicans can't do it. And it's possible to fight back. And what's interesting to me is nobody ever talks about, or maybe they do, and I don't just don't hear it, about how the equivalent happens on the right. I'd be interesting to know if you guys know of any states where there's just Republican up and down the ticket and they just veer into such a detached, lez-a-fair where the whole state needs to get corrected by for-profit organizations.

But it seems like we're setting up for Democrats versus companies and people moving to Republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone. Well, you know, it's a sensible set of outcomes in California, right? I mean, do you guys not agree that the the yes on prop 22 and sacks, it looks like your commercial property tax proposition that Zuck helped fund may not pass. It's a, oh, thank God. It's a pool. We don't know. It's a point one percent different. I agree. It's, look, the California ballot initiatives are looking really good right now. It gives me a lot of hope about the state because the most anti-economic, the most, let's put a business on friendly ballot initiatives looks like they're going down,

starting, you know, with the win on Prop 22. That's huge, but then Prop 15, you know We talked about that on a former Episode of the all-in pod. This was chipping away at Prop 13, which is the great Shield of the middle class in terms of property taxes I'm not saying you couldn't get a better tax regime that would Tax commercial property fair market value, but you sure wouldn't wanna give that card away without demanding some structural reform in exchange for it, which is why I thought it was just so stupid

for tech billionaires to be funding these ballot initiatives for higher taxes. But this is definitely looking like a sensible kind of middle ground outcome where a lot of folks who were concerned about California swinging all the way left and chasing business and enterprise out of the state, you know, maybe kind of getting real then and I think it gives some hope and gives some pods to a lot of folks who are trying to build businesses in California to recognize that, you know, hey, there is a thoughtful populace here.

Totally agree. And this is a great outcome tonight. I personally feel really good about that. I agree. I mean, if this sticks, it's, it is because the big issue with California right now is that we've got, people, we've got net migration out of the state because it's just so hard for the middle class to live here

and to build businesses here. I hope what we hear, if we're fortunate enough for Prop 22 to pass, I hope we see a coalition among these companies come together and really promote this as a national architecture for a third way for independent contractors free agents across the country to have a living wage and benefits. It's totally detached from W2 employment. I really do believe a bunch of people on this call were helpful to an effort I launched around the board challenge.

You know, it's high time for the social consciousness of corporate America to take the leadership position and because it's not coming out of Washington. There's so many issues that the solution lies among us and we got to stop spending our election nights wondering when somebody's going to deliver us from ourselves. We got to start delivering ourselves. I think it's a very funny thing. How do you think you resolved that unions? I mean, like, you know, girly, girly, are you still with us? Yes.

How do you resolve things with the unions after this? I mean, if Prop 22 passes, is there a coming to the middle ground with unions and or unions always just a kind of directional vector? You know, they're always like a force on the system. They're not an absolute or objective, right? They're just always pushing in one direction. I mean, what ends up happening with the resolution with unions, or is it just a constant

back and forth to try and manage the impact they'll have on policy, politics, tax, free market, et cetera? So from my point of view, if you think about Citizens United, which a lot of people were upset about, I think, rightfully. So because DC is so money-oriented, like it's coin-operated. And a lot of people have vivid awareness of it being coin-operated

on the right through corporations. This is why the most heavily regulated industries is the hardest to break into, hardest to innovate against. What I think they missed is how much of its regulatory capture on the left. And the difference that a union has versus a company is it's a natural monopoly. And so it actually has more power to write regulation

than a company does. But Anne, it's going to be around every single election cycle. So if you listen to him, you get what you want. And the people have pointed out that the gentleman, or he's not a gentleman, the individual that killed George Floyd probably wouldn't have been on the force if it weren't for the union protecting him because of the stuff he had done before. But, and this goes back to the red and blue and blindness of just being dogmatic to your party,

most of the people I know that are heavily prescribed to the Democratic tribe refuse to acknowledge that one of the big problems in police reform comes from the unions. And you can't see those things unless you take yourself out of that single place. I would tell you the California situation I think is deeper than maybe what Brad talked about there.

The rule, the law that's causing more companies to leave from my perspective in AB5 is something called Paga, which was passed about 25 years ago, but it's finally reached momentum where it's causing problems for companies. And this was a law passed by litigators with donor dollars in Sacramento that lets any law you're bringing a case on behalf of the state against a company. And so they're basically like local sheriffs just running around bringing claims.

And of course they'll settle every time the supposed victims are getting about 10% on average on paga claims. And once your company's been shook down on three or four Pagot claims by a lawyer who's only going to give tens cents on the dollar to these people that used to work for you, you finally just throw up your hands and say, you know, I don't need to hire someone here. I hire someone somewhere else. Cost twice as much to hire someone here.

And so I do worry that if any state or country wants to move forward in our new economy, they can't just be completely anti-business, anti-tack. I have a strong point of view on that, but it won't work. You're going to grind to a halt. Hey, Jason. Can we go back to the Senate? Is anybody prepared to, I'm getting to read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point with Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina going to Republican. That would do it. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for Democrats, but even if they lost both of those, you're going to have 5149 to Republicans in the Senate. Wow.

Hey, Brad, why are markets trading down a bit right now from where they were? I still have it at, you know, NASDAQ 280. Absolutely. So I'm not prepared to call that down. I just think that's within it's bouncing. And bovada, I guess, which is the bovada just came back up. They stopped taking action. Now they've got Trump minus 150 is that how you say it? And Joe Biden plus 115. So to

if you put a hundred dollars on Joe Biden you win 15 is that right? And if you win 115 you win 115 only win $15 115 is very close Jason and Donald Trump if you were to put a hundred dollars in you make 150. Is that right Phil? Helmeth you You definitely won 50. Oh, 150 to win 100. Exactly.

Got it. Okay. I think the more surprising thing at this point is it's almost, you know, I'm certainly going to live to write this, but it appears at this point that the market's gonna be up tomorrow almost either way. And if you look at what the market's going to be up tomorrow, almost either way. And if you look at what the market was saying last week, just yet another surprise. The market is celebrating the fact that this is a close election.

But if it's a contested transfer of power,'s there's certainly a lot of room for uncertainty, to still be injected into this, but it likes the fact that we, whether it's Biden or Trump who pulls out the presidency, it's certainly liking the fact that it's going to be a close election. Right now, just to give people in education, Fox News has Joe Biden at 227 electoral votes and Trump at 204 the New York Times is at 213 and 136 for Trump. The Senate on the New York Times is 44 Dems, 45 Republicans. And I don't know how we're supposed to try who we're supposed to trust here. There's a Senate. The Senate on Fox News is 45 Democrat

44 Republican So this is a dead heat which I think could lean us towards the great reconciliation Which is if Trump comes out of office Biden becomes the elder statesman Biden reaches across the aisle We have a massive balance of power in the Senate. Everybody's forced to work together in order to get anything done. Am I correct in my reading of this as a non-political expert? Well what you're describing is the great Jaron Taukrasy. We'll have 78-year-old Biden negotiating 79-year-old McConnell and I assume her is what 74 75

Pelosi's over 80 St. Heoyer her deputy is over 80 so who do we have in the death pool because two or three of those are dying next four years. I don't mean to make it dark but just looking at McConnell and his bruised hands and lips and everything something's eating him alive I'm not exactly sure what it is but uh... uh... that's a bad bad scene is that on the betting market that's not a betting market and by the way the other direction you're talking about trump who's seventy four

negotiating and you know it's it's now we've we've got to get younger in our political leadership across the board. It's, it's ridiculous. Who, who had a better chance of beating Trump would Bernie, Elizabeth Warren or Buttigieg would one of those three, if you had to pick one of those three and I think it's one of those rates, or you could pick your other, which one would have performed better? Brad, you said, Brad, I'm with Brad. I'm with Brad on May or Pete for sure. I'm with Brad on that one. Yeah. Okay. So, Bill, you believe Mayor Pete would have had a better performance. He would have been more inspiring. He would have been more energy. I think that

there is a lot of people that want what Brad talked about, which is someone who's rational and calm and centered. I also think that if you look at the history of presidential campaigns, most Americans favor an outsider. I attribute that to personally feeling like Washington's on the hook and been bought. Biden would be an outlier for a lifetime senator. There was a lot of excitement around a bomb off.

There was a lot of excitement about Reagan who came from Hollywood. There was a lot of excitement about Clinton. So a lot of governors, a lot of first-time senators is what you tend to see. And so Pete fit that mold. Why do some youth and some charisma would be nice? And David, the two David's and Michael,

who do you think would have put up the best fight? Because tonight, if Biden does win and it's feeling maybe like that's going to happen, it's clearly a jump ball here. It's coming down to the last 30 seconds. That's minute of the game. If Biden does lose, who would have been the candidate that would have beaten Trump if there was another one? Who would have had the next best chance? David's. Well, Biden's still looking pretty good right now. So I don't know that there I don't know that there was somebody better, but I do agree that I always was most impressed with Booter-Jedger out of the candidates in the sense that I thought he was the most

articulate. I thought he was the best debater. I thought he was the best on TV. And he knew how to reach for the center. And he had that kind of Obama thing of having identity politics working for him, but without making a big deal out of it. And so yeah, I mean, how would you mean by that, Mr. Sacks?

Well, he's gay. He'd be the first gay president, but he's not making that an explicit part of the reason to vote for him. And, but it would have been a first. And his voters would know that, but he doesn't want to, you know, he doesn't want to run on the idea of identity politics. And so he's not leading with that. He's not leading with it. I think that's a smart way to play it. It's, you know, Obama was obviously being an incredibly important first, but he didn't lead with that

as the reason why you should vote for him. So I think to a certain extent, Hillary did lead with that. Hillary was going to be the I'm with her, you know, and her was the slogan. Yeah. And I think a lot of people did want to make that first, but I think you have those votes. You need to make the case to everybody else. So yeah, I think he's a great political athlete. And, you know, someone's got probably a bright future in the Democrat party. I'm seeing some people on Twitter say that Biden's not become the favorite, but I just check Betfair.

It's basically 1.1. It's very close now. Kind of crazy. This is going to come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan and it's going to take days to do those counts and we're probably going to end up in the courts. We're not going to take days to do those counts and we're probably going to end up in the courts. We're not going to end up in the courts. Fredberg, who would have done a better job here? I mean, the market already voted, right?

It voted for Biden. He is the leading candidate. I don't know if anyone else would have outperformed Biden at this point. I think, you know, the next in line was a very different ideology and that's Bernie. And, you know, Bernie really is the contrast to, the contrast to the points that we were making earlier. You either think that the way forward is to have the government leave me alone or to wrap me up in a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet. Bernie Sanders is the guy in middle school who runs for class president and tells you the vending machines are all going to be free if you elect me.

And that's a broadly, you know, like everyone votes for that guy. And let me, let me ask you a question, Brad, that I've built off of David. I just, I just think the mayor Pete, by the way, let me just say I think mayor Pete is a great, articulate, thoughtful guy. And he's certainly appealing to those of us who want to have a thoughtful, well-articulated response to the problems we're facing. But I think that there is a gutter will kind of, you know, innate drive that folks want. They either want free shit or they want to be left alone. And, you know, you're going to need to appeal to one of those two motives. Brad, how would you have voted had your choice been, And I'm going to go around the horn on this.

Everybody gets a chance to think about it, except really, Brad. Brad, if you had the choice, Elizabeth Warren slash Bernie, hardcore socialist, let's go with Bernie since I think he's even more on the socialist side. Or Trump, could you have conceived of voting for Trump over Bernie? Or would you have voted actually voted for Bernie centers? Take your time and you can think out loud when you answer that question. No, I mean, I have to say that, you know, I have a 9-12-year-old boy, boys, and the conversation we had is it's not just about

what you stand for, it's about how you stand for it. Character. It's character. And I just couldn't tolerate Trump's character either in my own life, my own level of anxiety or standing for that and telling my boys that that's a okay way to lead. And so for me, I was willing to vote against my own interests and taking comfort in the fact that four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of the country, but to send a signal that, you know, how you lead matters in this country and a rejection of this form of leadership.

Yeah, but Brad, if you didn't think that Bernie Sanders policies would actually, I mean, if you thought they would actually pass everything he wanted to do, you couldn't conceive then of voting for Trump. Yeah, I mean, you know, again, like I would just say that I would have bet that the system that we have would have been slow enough in moving that that Bernie would not have been, you know, that when weighing those two evils, right, that, you know, again, for me, socialism versus Trump are your two. I can, I can tolerate the mean spirit in this perhaps myself.

But, you know, like I'm trying to, you know, I think it is important that we say that this is not what we stand for. This is not an honorable way to lead. And certainly when it comes to sitting around the dinner table every night and talking to them about the way I expect them to behave and therefore, my leadership, that mean spirit and this just didn't work for me. Would anybody else like to answer that question or is it just... Well, I'm not going to disagree with any of that, but I would just like to point out, I'd like to ask a question actually, which is, if this president was so bad that he had to be impeached, why wasn't that a campaign issue?

I don't remember being mentioned once by Biden that Trump was impeached. You would think that impeaching the president would be something you'd want to make a major campaign issue. So I just think this idea that Trump is the only one who's dishonest and unethical, that whole Russian insane hoax that they put us through for years, they put this whole country through. Before the guy even took office, they were trying to delegitimize his election.

I mean, come on, you can't just look at Trump's behavior, which I agree is outrageous, and not look at the other side and say they're doing the same thing. And this is like a, they're sort of like co-equal partners in this chaos that's been created. David, let's be clear. Their co-foundal partners in this chaos that's been created. David, let's be clear. They're co-founders in chaos. Let's be candid. All these politicians that we've had to live with

in our lifetime of grifters, we know that and their kids are grifters. Putting that aside, do you think there is any chance that the Russians have not bought an inordinate amount of apartments from Donald Trump at extraordinary prices? Are you just making that up or? I mean, is that the... I'm just going with my gut.

Right, exactly. Yeah, QED, case in point, because you feel it, you can now make an accusation that the president has received bribes from the Russians. I mean, come on. Well, we know, and actually, I wanna bring up something. I wanna bring up some things.

We all know Putin interfere with the election. And we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate. Okay. I honestly like unless you don't trust the CIA unless you don't trust the FBI, unless you don't trust our agents. Really? I mean, you believe in the deep. You're still holding the rest of the election we've overhead Jason. Jason. That's stories. This is the New York Post. We. We had Bob we had Bob Mueller with a team of like 18 like pit bull democratic prosecutors and 50 special FBI FBI agents. Let me finish to matter for who investigated for two years and they

couldn't find any collusion. I mean, come on. And you're still hanging on to this this insane fallacy. And you're wondering why the American people are turning against, why they're willing to vote for Trump again, come on. Can't you see the insanity of the other side? Well, I mean, I did see a matter of go to jail

and pay a $25, 30 million fine. And I did see that Trump's kids took the meeting with the Russians to try to set up a secret back channel. So while they might not have been smart enough or effective enough to actually collude, there certainly was a lot of graph going on. This is on the level, if not worse, than the whole Hunter Biden hard drive story,

which I thought was ridiculous story. Hunter Biden to look or two, which I thought was a ridiculous story and attempt to smear up Biden. Come on. But I, for you to lay this integrity issue on Trump alone, which I agree, there's some truth there and not lay it on the Democratic inquisitors in the Senate who put, in the House who put us through this impeachment hoax for two years. Come on.

We're starting to sound a little like AM radio. Let's get it. And we did go there. No, sex is a free thinker. I like this. He's a free thinker for sure. Oh, but it's like you got, but we're, but this word impeachment

is the entire campaign. That's also actually saying is own both sides of this. I guess you said, you would literally say, well, I'm gonna get dressed. Jason, can you say the word impeachment? I'm agree with you. Can you say it?

I'm not biding. Can you say the word impeachment? Impeachment? I just said it. Okay, there we go. I was wondering what happened to that word. You know normally, normally when you have been each president, normally when you have a

president become a really big campaign issue. It comes a really big campaign issue. Nick, can you please throw Georgia back on the map, please? Are you guys seeing this that now they're tipping Georgia back to Biden? Who is? This is insane. Where? Well, they're also saying that Arizona may have been prematurely called for Biden. So Arizona may be back in play for Trump.

That was really weird that they called Arizona so early, wasn't it? And only Fox has done it, I think. Yeah, Nick, how do you have Georgia reporting right now? How much is in right now? Yeah, click on Georgia just for a second. We have 81%. Yeah, the time's had it flip on.

At 9.13 PM, I have a screenshot, which shows Biden plus four. And then North Carolina is now just Trump plus 1.1. Michael is in Arizona. When they show that these reporting, it's precincts reporting, right? It doesn't show mail-ins or by precinct or mail-ins are at the state level. Well, a precinct will have both mail-ins and election day votes, and when they say 81% of precincts reporting,

that doesn't mean that 81% of precincts are finished reported. It's a very misleading number because it means that 81% of precincts have reported what they have, but it doesn't mean they're finished counting necessarily. Right. So, you know, Atlanta is probably, the precincts in Atlanta have probably reported some

vote. In fact, we see that when we click on it, but there's obviously a lot of outstanding vote in Georgia. There could be outstanding vote in some precincts in North Carolina as well. And at this point, once you get into the 95% and above range they do tend to be Urban centers that are that obviously have a lot more vote to count it gets late at night they go home They finish in the morning or three days later if you go zoom in on our zone of please 76% of voting reporting I mean, how is this possible? 54% basically.

I don't know, but in all those things you're going to have the intensity, you had around hanging chats and date count, you're just going to have like massive tension and drama around counting each of these last. Oh, yeah, we're going to have five Florida's. You knew 2020 would do this on the way out the door. Yeah, so Arizona, they counted all the absentee ballots, the mail-in ballots first, but the in-person voting hasn't been counted yet. So you can't call that state if they haven't counted all the in-person because Trump's gonna do better with election day ballots.

I agree, it's premature. Well, it depends on whether they're considering Phoenix is part of that, right? Okay. Why is Nevada only reporting 1%? In local news, there are now groups of people gathering at Oakland City Hall. So they go there when like, what night aren't they riding at Oakland? I mean, come on. In Berkeley, they smashed a pizza real window. They do it every other week.

Hey, guys, I want to discuss an idea I have that might be a little bit cheeky, but since Jake Helena, we're getting into it before I want to talk about it a little bit. Okay, let's do it. Which is I've called the Trump derangement score. Which is if you go to Twitter, that yeah, Trump derangement score, which is if you go to Twitter and search Trump from your username, it'll show you how many tweets you've published that you've posted that mentioned the word Trump. And so I did this before the show to see which bestie had tweeted the most and see what the score was.

And my sense is like, if your score is like zero to 10, you haven't really paid a lot of attention to Trump. It's probably like very healthy. And then if you're in in the 10 to 30 range, you're paying a little more attention, this could be a normal interest. Here it comes. Here it comes.

I'm gonna say three for my friends, I'll say, hold on, if you're in the 30 to 50 range, I think you pretty much are infected. There's two strains, there's the magus strain and then there's the resistance strain, but clearly you've tested positive for Trump derangement syndrome. And then I would say there's kind of like an advanced level where you can't even count how many tweets there are. You've got to like scroll and like you keep scrolling and you can't even get to the bottom. And that's like a level of infection where you need to immediately quarantine yourself.

And so anyway, I did this and and anyway, the winner actually was freeberg. Freeberg only had he had a score of one. He literally only had one tweet, mentioning Trump in the last four years. I only had eight but in fairness, five of them were posted yesterday to advertise this pod. So I... I agree. My one was during this podcast, by the way. Yeah.

I had about 20, about 20, yeah. And then, Jake, you were in scrolling territory. I couldn't even count. I gave up. I'll up. Well played. I feel for you. I really feel for you that you're hurting over this election. I, you know, I don't like I'm not trying to make fun of you or see you guys. Guys, another just another quick update here that the Cobb County, Fulton County and Cobb County in Georgia are pro-democrat. They're huge. And they're at 31%, 58%, and 70%. And if you play these out, there's somewhere between 405,000

potential incremental votes for Biden, which would eke out Georgia for Biden potentially, according to just this last. Just looking at Fox News, I think that they're trolling the Libs because they have Trump at 210 and they have Joe Biden at 237. The New York Times has, let me just make sure I'm refreshing here in the latest data, 213 to 145. So Fox is aggressively calling electoral votes at a level that The New York Times is far behind like behind by 50 at least a hundred

What is the explanation of this? Wow This is I mean this is nuts MSNBC 205 electoral votes for Joe Biden Which MBC has been the most conservative overall And if he's gonna have to what happens if it's tied it can tie right we still have that scenario on the table 269 269 Yeah, there's probably a way to get there Let's see uh... well interestingly uh...

biden did not get that one district in omahana braska that he had targeted uh... that obama won his first time that would give you one electoral vote in in braska nabraskan main both you get you get uh... to for winning the state and you get one for each of the congressional districts. So, well, Biden was not going to play an overall in

Nebraska. He had a shot at Omaha and that 272.68 scenario we talked about earlier could have potentially been 269.269 if that Omaha district was in play. But the polling really missed. Michael just to jump in. BG Gurley. Gurley's got a hop-up boys. Say bye to Gurley. Oh, thanks for having me. I appreciate it.

Bill Gurley. Missy of S-D-B-G. Speaking of Bill Gurley, how about Texas? I mean, I think Texas is definitely going to be Republican, right, Michael? Yeah, that one's trending far away from Biden. He looks like he's down about 500,000. So how many points does that? No one's called that Republican, right, Michael? Yeah, that one's trending far away from Biden. He looks like he's down about 500,000. So how many points does that?

No one's called that yet, right? It's bizarre that Florida and Texas are still listed as employed. So that could explain what J.K.L. is looking at between the disparity and the... Yeah, I don't blame Fox. If Fox called Texas, I don't blame them. But I think Arizona, yeah, that might...

That might be what you would explain your difference, Jacob. Texas and Florida Fought. Yeah, Fox. Yeah, that's 60 67 votes right there Yeah, that explains it. Yeah, so the New York Times has not called Florida or Texas The New York Times had Florida 98% I mean, it's like 99.9 or something right? If you add I mean, it's like 99.9 or something. If you add a 38 for Texas 29 for Florida, you're 67, 67 on to the 145, which you have 212 in Joe Biden at 213. Ralph, one point difference. Ralph Ornock and Kelly Lawflur and a runoff for the Senate seat in Georgia.

That's just incredible. I mean, hey guys, a comment and then a question. Looks like the Washington Post is projecting that California approved Prop 22. So there's a, there's a first. I'm not speaking right now, I think, right? Do we have to? I'm not speaking yet, but he's he's getting applied to speak. The applied volatility on Uber stock at the close today was 14%. By the way, every ballot initiative in San Francisco, the city level ballot initiative has passed.

One of them, the prop H, was good, all the rest of the word is aster. So San, so the state level ballot initiatives were pretty good news for California, but San Francisco. Okay, not much. Not so good. So, you know, in terms of what we were talking about earlier

about creating a more business-friendly environment, unfortunately, what happened in San Francisco, I think California as a whole is positive with Prop. 22, Prop 15 failing, but every single crazy ballot initiative in San Francisco passed, so it's just getting crazier in San Francisco. I don't know if you did this in your household, but with my 10-year-old, Brad, I went through my wife and I,

Jade, we went through each of the ballot initiatives, as many as we could. We listened to little encapsulations of what they were, and we talked about the stem cell one. And I just thought, why is California, which is losing all of these businesses, adding to the tax burden, stem cell research, and why isn't that being done by the private sector? If there is a huge price to be had with stem cell, why would we have California send billions

of dollars on this when we're losing all the this government I'm wondering you know how people thought about something like that like the stem cell Did you vote for that David? To continue to have California flipped the bill for stash. I by the way just before you answered David I took the pages of the ballot initiative and I used them to keep my white truffles from developing humidity I mean basically there are a truth about our case. And as I went, when I don't understand a ballot initiative, I just vote against it.

And I didn't really understand the Stumsel ballot initiative or why, the even, why, if that was a spending priority, why couldn't just be handled by the state, legislator, I didn't understand why that needed to be a ballot initiative. So, you know, I feel like ballot initiative, like I'll support them when the state legislature does something wrong. Like, it was a perfect example where, you know, Lorraine or whatever, the had this tremendous amount of power past

this crazy AB5 and the people had to overrule that. So I feel like that's where, like, these ballot initiatives make sense is when you want to overrule that. So I feel like that's where these ballot niches make sense is when you want to overrule the legislature, but it's kind of crazy to be passing these laws directly when we don't know that much about them. Conquer. I mean, the founders had this vision of representative democracy, not direct democracy,

and that's generally a good idea. So Jason, I don't know, you have to kind of like what director, the results that director democracy has produced tonight, the initiatives may be saving us from ourselves since we don't have in this state, unfortunately, a viable Republican party to represent us. The initiatives may be our last line of defense. Well, I think, I think you're right in terms of overruling things, but like in San Francisco, you know, every single bout in initiative path, and I think most of them are just. Well, there's no saving San Francisco.

We all knew that. Well, I don't like hearing that. Come to LA, baby. We've got a few more years at least. What is the consensus view as seems to be the markets are still not NASDAQ futures up to 80 still. What causes us to wake up tomorrow or the next day and have the futures down three, four, five hundred bit? There's one thing.

And so far it hasn't happened. And if we avoid it, we're going to fade a really big out here, which is Trump declares victory right now. I think that is the disaster scenario because I think Biden's going to get up there. He's not going to say much of anything. He'll be very kind of down the middle. You know, kind of let's take a wait and see approach. We're waiting until tomorrow.

There's a lot to go grind it out. Blah blah blah. But if Trump comes out and says we won, we're done. Let's move on. It's going to be panic because look, I mean, you can't certify Georgia, apparently. So you know, there's a path where there's seven or eight states that have to go through a one of meticulous recount. I think this thing is back to a coin flip.

I mean, Trump now has to win Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states, he wins. He has to be a three for three in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Three for three in this. Well, but we're saying that may become ungod. So if he loses Georgia, he loses. If he loses Pennsylvania, he loses Michigan,

he loses. Assuming he's already lost Wisconsin and Arizona. So, hey guys, Biden's coming out, but my analyst just run this analysis. If Biden wins Ann Arbor and Detroit by the same percentage as 2016, that's 420,000 Biden incremental votes 420,000 Biden incremental votes versus the 300,000 current Trump lead. Just a wide-the-credits-math and he wins Michigan. We feel good about where we are. We really do. I'm here to tell you tonight we believe we're on track to win this election. Yes. Yes. We knew because of the unprecedented early vote in the mail-in vote that's going to take

a while. We're going to have to be patient until we, the hard work of talent votes is finished. And the day over till every vote is counted, every ballot is counted. But we're feeling good. We're feeling good about where we are. We believe one of the nets has suggested we've already won Arizona, but we're confident about Arizona. That's a turnaround.

We also just called it for Minnesota and we're still in the game in Georgia, although that's not what we expected. And we're feeling real good about Wisconsin and Michigan. And by the way, let's go take time to count the votes. We're gonna win Pennsylvania. Yes! Come on. There it is. Some folks in Philly, Allegheny County, Scranton, and they're really encouraged by the turnout on what they see.

Look, you know, we can know the results as early as tomorrow morning. But it may take a little longer as I've said all along It's not my place or Donald Trump's place to declare who's won the selection That's the decision of the American people, but I'm optimistic about this outcome I want to thank every one of you came out and vote in this election and by the way Chris Coons and the Democrats Congratulations here in Delaware. A John, you're the gov, yeah, the whole team, man. You've done a great job. I'm grateful to the poll workers, to our volunteers, our campers, everyone who participated

in this democratic process. And I'm grateful to all my supporters here in Delaware and all across the nation Thank you. Thank you. Thank you And folks you heard me say it before Every time I walk out of my grandpa's house up in Scranide, Joey Keep the faith and my grandma when she's live. You'll know Joey spread it Keep the faith guys. we're gonna win this. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Oh my God, well there you have it. Guys, before we just, I just wanted to give a big shout out and thank you to Brad Gersner. Thanks Brad. He's a incredible investor and person and thinker. Thank you BG for being on the call. Thanks for having me guys. Really appreciate it.

Incredible, incredible time. And thanks to Bill Gurley, who stepped in and Phil Helm youth. This has been a great first time effort. We had, I think, about 4,000 of you at the peak here and certainly 5 or 6,000 over the night. This was an experiment. I think a successful one. And of course, I'm speaking about this country, America. What a successful experiment it has been to Jason. Jason, you can unclench. You're your nether regions because I think we're going to be okay. I think we're going to be okay. It's very tight. Anyway, you guys, good night. Thank you. All right. Thank you. I'm changing my prediction to scenario three Biden president. Oh, yeah, let's do that as we wrap best these

I'm still sticking with Biden. I'm still sticking with Biden. Okay, from Trump just tweeted that I will be making a statement tonight a big win So we were either in scenarios. Well, I mean two three and two three and four or all the four. I don't know if the viewers remember. Denario one was a Biden landslide. That's clearly not happening. Off the table. Two was basically was was was Trump pulling a big upset that's so on the table.

I'd say probably. 49% chance for right now 40 45% chance. Then you've kind of got the scenario three was the soft landing where the community. We have a community that is probably 49% chance for right now, 45% chance. Then you've got the scenario 3 was the soft landing. We're by the ones

of presidency, but the Republicans take the Senate. And I think it's probably like the 51%. And then scenario 4 was the and inclusive outcome. And here we are. Here we are. So I mean, the reality is, I think this thing, I mean, I think it's probably at the end of the day, 51, 49 in favor of Biden right now, but we probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases.

This could be really bad. I mean, we may not know who the winner is till December and this may require another stream court case. I think we'll know within a week who won. But it's going to be a white knuckle kind of week. Lee, I think we're going to know tomorrow. I think we're going to know tomorrow. I guess based on the electoral map, I'd say it's 51-49 in favor of Biden at this moment.

Okay, so Saks wants Biden to win Friedberg, where are you at the end of this shitshow? I was doing this 2020. I was looking at which island in Hawaii I want to go to. I'm looking at Austin and then I just to look at our final. The dogs are getting a little better for Trump. I wonder who the hell knows. This has been an incredible evening. I just feel better about the market reaction. I feel like those of us who operate businesses and try and build businesses and have employees and all this stuff.

I'm disappointed in San Francisco. It's a fucking shit show of the city. But I feel good about the fact that markets are taking this well and It you know means businesses will continue to operate and find funding and Shout out Billy and Hawaii. Mewtheat. Mewtheat. What's your pick and then J. Cal and then we're we're gonna bounce Yeah, I have to go with the math. I think Trump dollar 60 is pretty significant. So I Have to pick that direction, And I'm going, Biden. All right, everybody, this has been a special edition of the

OVBest East. I love you, Michael. I thank you. Thank you for having me. I enjoyed it. Thank you. Later, guys. I'll see you guys in the next one. I got you.

I'll see you guys in the poker table soon. Y'all please soon. Yes, bye-bye.