All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E142: "Rich Men North of Richmond" hits #1, upward mobility, real estate capital crunch, Trump RICO

Episode Date: August 18, 2023

(0:00) Sacks' big night (2:56) Sacks on spirits (14:27) "Rich Men North of Richmond" goes viral and debuts at #1 on Apple Music, upward mobility issues in America, solutions (53:01) Michael Burry's bet against the market: overblown? (58:33) Real estate capital crunch (1:12:26) Trump's newest indictment (1:23:31) What Adyen's big drop means for Stripe's valuation Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://youtu.be/sqSA-SY5Hro https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/oliveranthony/richmennorthofrichmond.html https://ricochet.com/942803/qotd-solzhenitsyn-on-the-liars https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/10/25/updated-u-s-household-incomes-a-50-year-perspective https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/investing/michael-burry-stock-market-crash/index.html https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000090514823000689/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-is-ready-to-scoop-up-commercial-real-estateon-the-cheap-6edac64f https://twitter.com/rothcre/status/1691910066952351963 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1691789175786246246 https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/08/CRIMINAL-INDICTMENT-Trump-Fulton-County-GA.pdf https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-the-heck-happened-in-coffee-county-georgia https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ADYEY:OTCMKTS

Oh my god, Saks looks like I got hit by a match, rock, you okay little fella? Woo-hoo! How long were you out last night, Saks? Oh boy. Did you see this message? I got the text messages. I was like, what the fuck is going on? I gotta get back to the United States.

Time stamp. 139 AM. Pacific. I'm still out drinking tonight. There's no way I'm making 9 AM. I'll do 10 AM to noon. This is Saks. The negotiation has begun. And I'm making 9 a.m. I'll do 10 a.m. to noon. This is sax then negotiation has begun And I'm waking up. It's my last day on the boat

I'm trying to get off the boat in a reasonable manner and that's the first text message again That's the first text that's six minutes later Drake just came in better make it a la Do you want to tell you the story? So the thing I would compare it to is, do you remember that episode of Seinfeld where Kastanza stumbles onto the model bar, you know, he finds the place that all the supermiles are hanging out. And he calls it Shangri-La because it's like this mythical place. And he spends the rest of his life trying to find Shangri-La again, but he can never

find it. Yes. That was you last night in LA. Well, so we were just out having a few drinks at this private club that's new in town. This is me and my Wack pack. And the room is, it's just a few of us having drinks. Sorry, who is your Wack pack? We can bleep out these things. How many of the Wack pack are on salary versus?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's like an NBA player. He rolls it with six people. What percentage do you have the payroll and what percentage are your friends? Yes. He's doing a calculation. What percentage of the payroll to our percentage are your friends? Yes. Um, he's doing a calculation about, I guess about half received some sort of monetary payment for me.

No, all of them are direct employees somewhere, vendors. Come revenge. Okay. Got it. Where once all you know, of course, real estate brokers like blacker, you don't have a lot of payroll. My gun. So yeah, they're on their them on payroll. Oh my God.

So yeah, they're fee-based. They're fee-based. You could call it an entourage. How many rolling your entourage? How many are there? Five? Or I'm going to say six. I think we had about five people out.

Okay. That's an entourage. That's perfect. Because that you can get into the club with that. It's more like a private club. It's not like a different kind of club. You're a member of this club. I take a member. Got it. Okay. So we're just hanging out there having drinks and, you know, the room's empty.

It's just us. And all of a sudden, there's like a subtle vibe change. Oh, that happens. And we look around like five minutes later, the whole place is full. And it's like shingrel off basically. Or like what just happened? What happened? And then Drake walks in. Ah, or basically. Oh, man. Or like, what just happened? What happened? And then Drake walks in. Ah. Or like, oh, okay. Got it.

He performed at a concert in LA that night. So the after party was basically at this place. So it's not like we're hanging out with them. What were you drinking? Are you on the tequila still? Or what do you want? You seem to love that tequila. Are you on the ranch water still?

Yeah. I used to like bourbon or scotch it, but now these sort of highly refined tequila are better. So the clossos, it was probably my favorite. Right. Clossos old r have our own all-in tequila label. I'm in. I'm in.

So we'll see if the fans like that idea, let us know in the comments and we'll work on it. Now, what do you, how do you drink it? Are you a neat guy? You put a couple of ice cubes in, and do you do like a Bill Gurley Ranch Water situation? What's the ranch water? What do you mean by ranch water? Ranch water is to take a topa chica, some tequila, and then what, you put a couple of

limes in it? Freebergh, because you're on this ranch water kick too, aren't you? I had a little ranch water the other night. I had some ranch water last night. You hear my voice, I had a little too much ranch water. But Tupacicas, that's just a celtzer water, right? In a glass bottle from Mexico. Like, but it's a fancy celtzer.

And then you get lime juice in it. And it's just, you know, it's a very, like it's basically double tequila and soda with some wine. So it's like a margarita minus the sugar. No sugar, yeah. No sugar. It goes down very smooth, very refreshing. You got to have a good tequila for it to work.

Yeah, I don't bother with the mixers or the fruit or any of that stuff. It's just, I'll drink it on the rocks. I can't be bothered with anything that has that is ranch and water. It just seems so. Downmarked. It seems nasty. Yeah, no, it's a Texas thing. It's a Texas down market. No, if's a Texas thing. It's a Texas.

Downmark it. No, if you're drinking a high quality spirit, you don't need to mix it with anything. You know, if it's a bad spirit, then you gotta put all sorts of things in it. But. You don't add salt sort of white wine to a good wine wine. When Bobby Baldwin was still running the area,

and I was super gambling at the area, my host invites me, and there was a huge Chinese junket at the area. My host invites me. And there was a huge Chinese junket at the same time. And I'll never forget it. These guys had ordered every bottle of screaming eagle. Okay, so whatever, five, six thousand dollars a bomb. And Welch's grape juice said they were missing. Up screaming eagle.

I'd never seen anything like this before or since it was unbelievable. It was like a joke. No, that's how they drink it. Come on. No. They asked for the most expensive bottle that they had, the most expensive California bottle that they had. These guys pull out a case of screaming eagle and they just are pouring, we were playing together pouring half screaming eagle, half of the welches grape juice, like those grape soda. I got to be honest, that does sound pretty good. I don't think you need a screaming ego.

Exactly. Yeah, that's pretty nutty. It's like a sangria. The big thing now that they do is they put the big ice cube in the drinks, you know, the big cube. Yes. But I think I'm old fashioned. I prefer the multiple rocks, you rocks, not the big cube.

Because I actually, I want the ice to melt a little bit. I want the drink to change. You want to open it up. You want to open it up. It's a relationship. It's a relationship with the drink. How does it start? How does it end?

David, I want an honest answer. Do you have, in the mausoleum, an ice cube mold of your face. Not some super fed, just put that in the merch store. Not in my face, but we do have our own ice cubes. We do have our own big cubes. Where's the best? Actually, there's a room off of the kitchen, which is the ice room. So they bring the ice down from Antarctica and they cut it.

Most of it melts because it's not that bad. It's the best. Sacks is the best.. So they bring the ice down from Antarctica and they cut it. Most of it melts, because it's not that bad. Yeah, it's the best, sex is the best. He's the best. But it opens up, right? So tell them more about the relationship. You start, you got a very powerful, strong relationship with it, and then you what, ease into it, it gets... Yeah, I mean, the reason why they do the big cube in theory,

I mean, it looks cool, but is because when the ice is kind of in one tube like that, it doesn't melt or it doesn't melt as fast. And so it doesn't water down the drink. But I want the ice to melt a little bit out, you know, I can always drink a drink. When we drink scotch, yeah, sax, when you're drinking bourbon is the whole stick around tap-y-vend winkle. Is that real or is that just like marketing? It's a little bit like screaming eagle, which is to say it's good, but is it 10 times better than the $300 bourbon?

No, so there are other good bourbons, but Pappy is very good. It is undoubtedly very good. And what makes a bourbon good versus moderate average versus shitty? It's, I'd say, like can you taste it like wine? Like you can taste a difference in wine or not really?

It's about how smooth it is. Personally, I don't want bite in either my bourbon or my tequila. So, you know, how smooth that is. And then bourbon compared to scotch tends to be sweeter, but you don't want it to be too sweet. So just getting that balanced right, you know, that these new tequila's are kind of like that as well. You know, you choose how much buy you want and how sweet you want to. Three things you don't want to bite in.

Burden Scotch and f***ing. Whoa! Oh! Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha Have a drink with a Collins ice you ever have the Collins ice. Do you know what that is? Check this out. Whoa. This is becoming a trend. They cut a very long rectangular ice. Where do they call that high bowl? Is that a high bowl or is a high bowl the shorter glass? I don't know. No, high bowl is the short glass, no? That's the short glass which makes those nuts because they call it a high bowl. But anyway, there's a funny meme where he take this drink and they show this and it's like, what happens when you're venture capitalists?

After you're venture capitalists get their preferred and they're liquidation preference and they pull the ice cube out and there's one ounce of trig blood. That's great. That's a press stack right there. It's a press stack. This explains the press stack.

Your comments is the liquid around that ice cube. That's really good. That's really good. That's really good. Oh, man. Can I admit something which may be totally derided, but I have to say, have you guys ever had a Cosmo in a short glass?

So meaning not in a martini glass, but just a Cosmo in a short glass? In a guy glass? Yeah, yeah, you got glasses I think when a Cosmo is made while it's an incredible drink You guys too many ingredients Yeah, nobody here is going with you on this one. You're on your own Cardol, but but when I do yeah, it's a Cosmo Like you like a chick are so many better, what about a great Nagroni?

It's not sweet enough for me. I like a Cosmo. Yeah. I like a Margarita. I guess I like sweet drinks. I like Margaritas. Oh God, here we go. I'll take you to do that.

Just do it. It's a good background. What is, oh, there's the entourage background. Yeah, I'm friends with a lot of the entourage guys now. I know Adrian, and I know Turtle, who is a big nicks fan. So I'm friends with two of the four, two of the four. Not really nice guys. Like when you say you know him,

you mean you've de-empted with them or you've done something in human life with him? I've hung out with Adrian Grineer many times. He's a big intact. He's got a, he's a's got a venture partner in a fund and he lives in Texas, well known, public that he's in the Austin area. So I've seen him many times. I think he's access to.

He rides in our circles. And then, yeah, Turtle is a huge nix fan and I'm in a group chat with him where we talk about the nix. So shout out. And they're bringing it back by the way. There's a big fight between, I guess, Mark Wahlberg and well, two of the creators, but the whole cast wants to come back. And then they wanna do, like, what would Ari Gold be like

in this era of cancellations and political correctness? And I think that would be, because it's happening. He's gotta be a softer character too. Now that he that would be, because it's happening also, he's got to be a softer character too, now that he's grown up, he's matured, he's passed the heyday of his career, he's reflecting on life of it, it could be really good. Well, that would be a hotline,

you put him in the middle of a cancellation crisis. Yeah, Jerry Farong. He probably has the issue in apology of some kind. Something from the past, some texts he sent to some producer in the past. Yeah, don't go,ed. If I think the best entourage reboot would be making him the head of like Disney or something like he's in charge. Oh my god. Here we go studio. And that way, are you seeing this snow white? The backlash? Oh, here we go. Go, bro, go ahead. Here's your ret here's

your retina. I don't care. I'm not going to see the movie. And I don't care much about it. But it's another Disney, it's another Disney faux pas, where conservatives are backlash against this revisionist take on Snow White. The doors apparently are no longer doors. They're just people with like funky hair. No way. Yeah, really? Yeah. They made them non, they made the dwarves non dwarves.

I think they're still called dwarves, but they're, you know, normal height people. So, but they've got like blue hair or pink hair. What's the thing? Well, this is the thing. The term dwarf, I think is not, I think there's some in the community, some debate if it's a fanciel run out. So I don't know if it is if it is apologies. In the small person community. Like what community? The person, there is a term person of short

stature, a little person and dwarf. Those are the commonly used terms according to the internet. I don't think you get canceled for any of those, but I do think it's a sensitive subject and there's some differences of opinions. Anyway, somebody who is a person of short stature complained about this and then a bunch of folks who are persons of short stature were very upset because how many iconic roles are there for people who are in this? Right. Well, this is kind of an ancillary issue, Jason. The main thing that's raised hackles is that the actress who plays Snow White has been

giving all these interviews and was she's trashing the original movie and basically saying that Prince Charming was a stalker in the original and so they had to change that. Yeah, there was a look. And so you have to remember that. That Snow White was the original IP of Disney. That was the first big movie they did that put them on the map. I think before that it was more like short animated films. I think Snow White was the one that Walt Disney figured out we could make a feature length animated movie and it made the Walt Disney

company. So you have here this actress is taking a lot of heat because she's saying a lot of things sort of trashing their original movie. Now I personally don't blame her because the thing she's saying I think are the filmmakers Intent and so really you have to question the wisdom of the executives at Disney who you know could have left this material alone They didn't have to go here. Yeah, but they did decide to go here They did decide to do a remake and they changed all these things. Why even bother? You know all you're gonna do is ruin the public's perception of the original. Yeah, that would be like the the new starwars people being like, oh my God, Han Solo was a misogynist and it's like, well, yeah, he was a scoundrel. They literally call him a scoundrel.

Yeah, I mean, he's not the best guy, but he has an arc and he turns around. I mean, it's a problem with trying to have to look at art in context, obviously. And speaking of which, I don't know if you guys saw, there wasn't a need for them to rehabilitate that movie by remaking it in a completely different way. Yeah, here's how you say it. Standards have changed over a hundred years. So some of the things that you might see on film

or in media or in books might be different over the last century. And you might want to put them in context. The end, let's move on. Speaking of media, you guys aware of this song that has rocketed to number one? Rich Madden listened to it. Rich Madden listened to it.

All right, so I thought I'd bring this up. I think, have you heard it, Freeper? Great song, great voice. Incredible. Can you play it because I haven't heard it? Yeah, let me play you a little bit. I want you to just listen to some of the lyrics here and then if for context, nobody knew the song a week ago, it got 25 million views on X in a week or three days and it's the number one song on iTunes right now. Number one track in the country. Here we go. Come and All of her auntie, Rich Badd of Rich, become an act you oughta, Thursday. For bullshit pay, so I can sit out here and waste my life away.

Drag back home and drown my troubles away. It's a damn shame. What the world's got to do to people like me. People like me. People like me. People like me. People like me. And shock and just wake up I did not be true to you Yes, but it didn't mean Living in the new world With an old soul The rich man, the author, the rich man

Lord knows that I'll just wanna have Total control Well, I know what you think Well, I know I just want to have total control Well, I know what you think Well, I know what you do And then I don't think you know But I know that you do Because your dollar hates shit And it's taxing open

And it's a red man Don't the red man Incredible When you hear the song I saw a sax was getting into it. This is a popular song. He's crooning the American voice. I'm into it. I'm into it.

I'm into it. It's the 80 million people voted for Trump that, you know, if you read the top YouTube comment, it's the 80 million people that feel like they don't have a voice that, you know, Trump was speaking to. He sounds like Wesley Schultz of the Luminaires, the beautiful voice. But obviously, the lyrics are what speak to people. Yeah, let me, let me, let's do a little all-in for the first time, a little cultural, you know, well, what would you call this, appreciation of the lyrics here, or an analysis.

I've been selling my soul working all day over time hours for bullshit pay so I can sit out here and waste my life away Drag back home and drown my troubles away It's a damn shame what the world's gotten to for people like me people like you Wish I could just wake up and it not be true, but it is living in the new world with an old soul These rich men north of Richmond, huh? Lord knows they just want wanna have total control. This is a key line. They just wanna have total control.

They wanna know what you think, Zach. They wanna know what you do. And they don't think you know, but I know you do. And so what's happening here is the author of the song, the lyricist, saying, this is about big tech, this is about the CIA, this is about the FBI tracking us. And then thinking that we're Schlobs,

that we don't know they're tracking us, they don't know they're tracking the work of men. But the author speaks to the listener and says, I know you do. Just let it sink in, huh? Do you have any lyrics here that spoke to you, Friedberg? I know that you're you're living this blue collar line of them. I just want to wax the philosophical for a second. I do think that, you know, for all humans to find happiness in life, they have to feel like they're progressing. And if folks are not progressing,

because of challenges they face in the world, there's always an orientation that the system isn't delivering to me the things that it was supposed to deliver or the system is rigged and corrupt against me. That's been the case for all of human history. It's certainly the case today. And with, you know, you read Thomas Piketty's book, Capital, He Speaks So Much About Wealth Disparity

in an era of globalization, in an era of technification, in an era when the world is seeing some people have extraordinary gains, but most people not on a relative basis. And that voice speaks to a system that is preventing those folks from finding that path in life that they believe they're due and that they think is obviously something

that everyone should be born to be able to pursue. I think it's beautifully said. It's beautifully said. It really speaks to the core and the heart of, people term this populism, I hate that term, but it's a lack of progressivism. It's the fact that folks don't feel like they can progress. Not just in the US, around the world today,

but really the US voice is so strong and so loud on this point. It's why Trump was elected, that the system, whether it's the companies, the people, the institutions, the large, large, large federal government agencies are preventing folks clogging up, giving people not delivering to the people, the things that they said that they would

and not enabling them to progress on their own. And I think that's really, this song encapsulates the emotion of that feeling so well. I think it also, I think that's what's going on. Yeah, it's beautifully said. And I think to build on that and then bring Shemoth in here,

there's something unique about the American spirit that we're never happy, that we're always striving. And I think this also encapsulates this, that and if you look at the European spirit, specifically Italy, where you are right now, there are people who very much enjoy life and accept life and have maybe a little more peace and happiness and aren't trying to, you know, upgrade, upgrade, upgrade to get the latest version of whatever it is, Carboat House, you know, iPod, whatever. And it's super interesting,

this lyric, because it shows this frustration. If you think about the frustration free break to your point, we have the lowest unemployment in the history of this country, in our lifetime, I should say, and wars aside. When we have 10, 20% unemployment in certain groups, people complain about that, people complain about their retirements. We complain here about our portfolios and our equity positions and then being down. Everybody in America complains, it's why we are so successful as because we never accept it and we never actually take a moment to smell the roses. It's not that many thoughts on that and then I'll just read some more lyrics and then

go to sex. I don't know how to reconcile all of this with the other part of America, which is you pull yourself up by your bootstraps and the system still roughly works. How do you make those two things work together? It just seems like one cohort of people says the system is rigged. Another cohort of people say, if you work work really hard America will give you a better chance than anybody else and it still does and it still does a better job than it ever did and there are umpteen examples that they'll point to

so who's right is that they're both right i think it is that i was about to say i think it's both right sacks you could have a group of people uh who are unhappy with their current condition and there are people from around the world who look at America and say, I want to be part of that system. If only I could be in that country. In fact, all three of your parents, free bird sex and Shemaab said that. I need to get there.

I need to get to America, sexually, Shemaab's point about this disparity, this paradox. So the way I interpret this word populism is failure of the elites. When you hear people expressing populist thoughts, what they're really saying is that the people running this country, the ruling class, the elite has failed. And we've just seen with two years of COVID that the ruling class got everything wrong, pushed these insanely destructive

lockdowns, lied about every aspect of the virus and pushed a vaccine that didn't work. So I don't want to rehash COVID, but the point is just the elite, the ruling class completely failed, and yet their failure was covered up by the media. It's the best example. Let's just say it. Let's just call it what it is. It is the best example.

Right. So I think people are just fibrillating angry about this failure of the elite combined with the lack of accountability because there's not honesty about what they're getting wrong. And you see this pattern repeated over and over again. So I think it's repeated in terms of how we got into this completely unnecessary Ukraine war. It's repeated in terms of the crisis we've had at the border. It's repeated in terms of the export of all of these industrial jobs

to other countries. And that has all the... Collapses cities? Collapses cities? Collapses cities with, you know, again, we have hundreds of thousands of people living on the streets. I think all of these things have made a huge difference in the lives of many ordinary people in the country. And so, yeah, this is a land of opportunity for people who have certain kinds of skills. Listen, if you are technologically inclined, it's still a great country. We're in this industry.

We know there's lots of opportunity. It's always a great time to start a company. But many people in the country have been adversely impacted by these policies. And there appears to be no willingness of the ruling class to admit the problem and make changes. The line Jason you quoted, where it was kind of like they know we know and they keep doing it anyway. It reminds me of a line from Solzhenitsyn who said that we know they are lying.

They know they are lying. They know we know they are lying. We know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying. That's the vibe I'm getting is this Solzhenitsyn lineyn line. Nick if you just pull up the link I just sent this is a really important I think data set for us to all look at and for everyone to understand you know what's gone on in the United States. This shows in twenty twenty dollars per capita income in the US by quintile. So the top 5% of earners in the US, you know, since, call it the mid-90s, have seen a near doubling of their earnings. The top quintile, which is the top 20% of earners in the United States, have seen their earnings

climb by 60% since that time period. But the rest of America, the other 80% have been flat. And I think if you are born into the United States or told the story of the American dream, the story of the American dream is you can come here, work hard, be smart, put in the effort, put in the time, and you'll be able to progress in your life in terms of comforts and assets and all these things. And for most of Americans, that story has not played out. They've worked hard.

They've put in the effort. They've tried to be smart. They followed the rules. They've done what the systems and the governments have said you should do in order to get the rewards. And they're left with flat earnings over several decades. And that's the story of America right now. And because of this, the top 20%, the top 5%, have acquired an outside amount of the

assets and outside the amount of the income, as we all know, and have all benefited from. And the vast majority of Americans that have been working, I have a question for free book. Do you think that we should implement policies to change the lines on this graph? Exactly what I was gonna ask. Yeah. I wanna reference you guys to the Tim Ferris interview with Charles Koch from a couple of years ago.

In that interview, he gives a really good example, and I'm gonna mess this up a bit. But he talks about how certain women that are hairdressers in the inner city, they wanna go do the hair braiding thing. But in order to do it, they have to pay thousands of dollars to school to get certified, and then they have to go to the city to get a license in order to be able to do that job. So the economic cost of getting there is insurmountable for them.

And there's countless examples like this, wherein the US, we've created policies that have attempted to be forms of protection or perhaps be forms of income generation for cities and governments and so on. That in the process unfortunately have limited the mobility of people that want to be individual earners and entrepreneurs in the US. I think that is the first thing I would do to address this problem. Give every American the opportunity to be an entrepreneur to build their own path. Do you think that here, braiding licensing, fixing that problem will cause the dashed black line or the blue line to shrink? I guess what I'm trying to ask you is should those lines shrink? Yeah.

I don't think it's the government's role, right? I'll tell you, I'll tell the line. I just want to hear, I want to hear I want to hear Friedberg's answer, Jason. I'll answer the question. I'll answer the question. I said this in the past. If you shrink those lines,

you will limit overall progress. And what I mean by progress is improvements in productivity, improvements in advances in technology, in business, and economic growth. Because we've seen this many times in the past, there's a certain limit on taxation. So one method is to tax, right? Pull more money out of the top errors and redistribute it. The problem is when you do that, there's less capital in the hands of those who have proven themselves to be good at driving productivity and improving access for goods and commodities and things that are cheaper for everyone. So there is a cost

to doing that and that has been, this has played out. I mean, this is the Roman Empire, this is the British Empire, this has played out countless times in history. In recent years, it's played out probably half a dozen times. You're evading the question. I just want to know what you think. What do you think? I think that there's an important balance to strike. So I don't think it's about taking away from the top as much as it's about enabling the bottom, if that makes sense. It doesn't because that's what everybody says they want to do.

And this is, it's been 50 years of people saying that. It doesn't work. What? Yeah. So he's not going to answer. So you've seen answer to him off. that doesn't work. What? Yeah. So he's not going to answer. So you answer to him off. What do you think? I'm just telling you there's a consequence to doing, you know, whatever we want to do to try and make everyone equal and end up in a show. Here's my here's my issue. I the way that you presented like you

tell it in a language. And even I felt it where I was like, wow, this guy's really empathizing. Wow. My God. He's really. But then the follow up to like, well, what would you do? Is non-existent. And I think that that's the real problem. A lot of people want to pretend that this is an issue. And they want to get the sympathy of the masses by giving the populist rhetoric of why this is an issue. But when push comes to shove and the question is, do you believe that the dashed black line or the blue line should be legislatively brought down to meet the other lines. People just evade the question.

In my perspective, the answer is no. You cannot do that. And the reason why United States GDP is where it is is because of that dashed line. It's an existence proof of the fact that this is the largest economy in the world. And so one has to make a really simplistic decision, which is do you want economic supremacy and then try to figure out ways of rebalancing things or do you not? I say you absolutely must start with that, which means that that dashed line and that blue line will always have a rate of acceleration. That is greater than the other lines. And that's just natural op-x leverage

that exists in any company. If you look at a company with 50% EBITDA margins versus a company with 15% EBITDA margins because one uses technology and the other one doesn't. Its capitalism is right with these examples. Yeah. Jamat, that is the smartest thing you've said in 142 episodes of The All-In Pot.

But I agree 100% Jamat with your... That is the smartest thing you've said in a 142 episodes the island pot But I agree 100% to math with your I think it's well said, but then you should just say it I think we do a huge disservice By pretending to care and then not seeing the ugly truth the ugly truth is none of us want the government To try to bring that dashed black line or that blue line down. We want them to stay out of our way. That is the truth. Yep. So, if you talk to that guy that wrote that song and his 80 million followers, he, I

don't think you say to them. What do you say to them? I don't know. Catechia, is my honest answer. I want to get saxed. Sax go. Okay, look, I think when you see a chart like that, the natural instinct is that you want to argue for redistribution.

You basically want to take from one of the top lines and just give it to one of the bottom lines. And I think that only works to a degree. I think it's important that we have a social safety net. But what we've seen is that Marxist redistribution doesn't ultimately work. It actually makes a society poor. I think this is where Jamal Thizroy, the simplistic solutions don't work. We're not going to move from fundamentally a capitalist system to a sort of Marxist

redistributive system. But that doesn't mean that we can't do things to improve the situation for the average American. And I think there are the policies are more complicated, but I think we could have much more prudent handling of our fiscal situation so that inflation, for example, doesn't eat away the wages of American workers. I think we could have a much more sensible immigration policy so that there's not, I think a lot of competition for, let's call it low-end

jobs. I think we could have had a better trade policy with China over the last 20 years. I think there are things that we could do that were more nuance that would have improved the situation for working class Americans. And we didn't do it. And you compound that with, again, all these elite failures around things like COVID around things like foreign wars let's add to this the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. critique of regulatory capture that the military industrial complex is bleeding this country dry and I think you add all those things together and

I can see why there are complaints. There have been three major responses over the past 50 years to this problem, the one and all of them involve creating budget dollars to fund access to everyone of three major things, which is healthcare, education and housing. And it sounds good in principle. It is a good thing to say everyone deserves to have access to buying a home. Everyone deserves to have access to an education say everyone deserves to have access to buying a home, everyone deserves to have access to an education, everyone deserves to have access to healthcare.

The problem is when the federal government has stepped in to build the programs to provide these solutions, they've created extraordinary incentive problems that have caused asset bubbles and have ultimately caused failure in the underlying system that you're trying to give everyone access to. We have told every American that they should put all of their net worth and more into their house. And as a result, we've had to continue to drive up the price of housing in the US, drive up, create a housing bubble by pouring a ton of capital in to keep that asset safe and protect it because it is where most Americans

have put their nest egg. We've given everyone access to an education by giving free student loans out, and those student loans have caused an asset bubble in the price of education. And we have tried to provide health care to everyone through the federal government that has no accountability, and as a result, the cost of healthcare has ballooned. So I think the one question for you guys is,

in the sense that most people are saying these are three critical things that I need access to, but when the federal government gets involved and provides them the cost sores and we have all of these bubble problems and disincentives that arise in the system and money gets stolen and yada yada, what's the right solution then, right? How do you provide sex that 80% of Americans access to these things that boost their condition in life without causing what is effectively inflation across all the areas. I don't think those are these areas. I would like to start by just saying, when we look at this chart, I think it maybe looks worse than it actually is in reality. I think when you look

at the chart, you say, oh my God, this is terrible, but there are people around the world who are fighting to get into this country who want to be part of this chart. Now, why do they want to be part of this chart? It's because they perceive that, you know, even the middle quartile, even the fourth quartile here, the bottom quartile, they feel like that's better than they're a lot in life in their country. So this, if you were to expand it and put a couple of other countries on it, you would say, hey, even the people who are in the fourth quartile in America are doing better than people in the middle quartile in another country, and the opportunity is still here. And that's my second point, which is, you know, how easy is it, or how possible is it

for, you know, the next generation, you know, if you came here as immigrants, like many of you did, and obviously, you know, my grandparents did. How easy is it to get from that green line to the orange, from the orange to the red, the red to the purple, etc. That's the generalization. I think we need to focus on. Forget about all the programs, forget about tax moving up. How do you move up?

That's a wonderful point because I think the generalization that this chart is like chart porn because it meant to be titillating, but it tells a very poor story of that exact dynamic which is if you started in the green line which I did, you know my parents my parents made 32,000 that's the most they ever made in their best year but most of the time with wallfare we were on living on between 15 and $21,000 a year. Yet somehow, we went from the green line to the dashed black line. So the thing that this chart isn't really representing is, is there enough people that go from green to orange to red, red to purple, purple to blue, blue to dashed black?

That's what really matters. That's why I think this chart is mostly pointless because if in fact what you saw was that in any given cohort of people They were not the cohort before that was in the dashed black line. You would say wow. We're actually creating wealth distribution in a very unique way, which is an entire new court or the people are becoming wealthy in every generation. If however, it's the same 50 people that are in the dashed black line, obviously that's not good. But our lived experience is not that. So I think like the real question is like, can we just be can we find a different way of actually telling the truth using this information so that instead of so that instead of bear hugging random Populous sentiments and statements to try to win favor with people we actually just acknowledge the problem where it lies That individual that wrote that song

Which line is he on which line was his father on and which line will his children beyond that's the critical question It's not that the lines shouldn't exist Yeah, and nowhere else on earth would the three of us, I mean, you know, which line did you start on? I started in the green. I'm asking for a bird. Where did you start? I mean, between the fourth quartile and the middle quartile. I mean, when we moved to the US, my parents always just looked for gigs that they could make money. So you were fourth quartile, you think? 40 kg? Yeah, we had no money. I don't know what to tell you.

I mean, my parents, we moved to LA when I was six years old from South Africa and they were gigs their entire lives. Yeah. I think my family was from fourth to the middle and then my brothers and I all went up to at least one or two lines higher. By the way, another thing.

And that's the, sorry, I think that's, I think that's the important story. If you guys read some of the comments on YouTube, which we always argue we should or shouldn't have, but you know, but on, I just want to point this out. There's Kitchimov's point. There's immediate approximation of people based on which quartile or quintile they're in,

rather than an approximation on their transversal of the quartiles or quintiles or whatever. And I think what's really true about all four of us is that we all transversed the quintiles. We all moved from there to there. And none of us were wealthy just a few years ago. We all made our way in the world and in the United States in a way that we would not have been able to

anywhere else on earth. And I do think that that is the most powerful aspect of, you know, American liberalism and democracy still. I think this characterization of people based on their wealth is what's so disturbing to me because you hear it from the whole of the country. You hear it from AOC. But it discredits the fact that those people typically were not wealthy a few years ago, that the people that should be celebrated are the ones that went from not wealthy to wealthy through the means of creating things that ended up being useful and productive or whatever the system asked for and they created value there. And I think that the lack of recognition of entrepreneurship

the ability for immigrants to come to this country and transverse these quintiles. Yeah, but that is one of the challenges. Yeah. That would require them to be a little bit curious about the individual and to not use the individual as just an object to win their argument. And you know, I think that's, that is the sin of politics. Is that they're just using just different objects out there. Let me ask you the question. Yeah. What do you say to the blue collar worker enrichment that this guy is speaking to you in terms of their

ability to transverse those quintiles to go from low income earner. They're a blue collar worker. They work a union job or they work as a plumber or they work in, you know, some manufacturing facilities. This is the point. You're not supposed to grin, fuck him. So by pretending like all of it, this is what they hate. They hate all of you fucking

people. Grin fucking them. Stop grin fucking them. Stop pretending that you care that you really care and oh, whoa was them. But the reality is it is implicitly impossible for anybody on this fucking podcast to talk about how this system has not worked for them. Okay. And so what we need to do is actually take us that back and just acknowledge the fact that we were in the green line, we somehow by a bunch of fate and luck and hard work and opportunity that this country provided. And so the real question is, what did that guy, can he do differently, has he done or shouldn't have done that has kept them in there. And one of the things that I would like to bring up, that is really worth exploring for multi-generational Americans, which is not talked about enough, is when we introduced, or when we,

I'm talking collectively, we, Lyndon Johnson, really, the war on poverty, that had an inexorable change in the dynamics of America, in black wealth, in white wealth, in the trapped amount of wealth the destruction of nuclear families all of these trends started a few years post the introduction of the war on poverty and nobody talks about that so I disagree with you freeberg when you point to health care and all those are secondary and tertiary derivatives of the actual war on poverty. And that was Lyndon Johnson's signature legislation, policy assassination of JFK, and nobody really looks at what that actually did to change and potentially misalign incentives

in the United States that have compounded to create this issue. So I would say to the Richmond person, I have enough respect for you, sir, to not grin, fuck you, and tell you how well was this graph. I don't know what the solution is, and I think we just need to talk and figure out to see if there are some ideas that can improve the situation. But some of them, some of them do come to the fundamental incentives that the government has created that we need to either undo or

change. Tax? Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of good points in there just to echo some of the things you guys said. I think my family came to America in 1977. I think my dad was making $27,000 a year. So it was green or orange or something like that. One of the bottom, one or two quintiles.

And then we moved up because he's a doctor and had that education. So how you do in this country is going to depend a lot on what kind of education you have, what kind of skills you have, like you guys are saying. Now that being said, I still think there is a policy role here. I do think that a lot of the policy that has been in this country over the last couple of decades have not been great for working class people. And I think there are things we can adjust. But to Tomas' point, declaring a simple war on poverty that's based around redistribution

doesn't work because what we've seen is that it also creates a lot of dependency. And so a lot of these policies backfire. So simplistic redistribution is not going to solve the problem. However, I do think that having a policy response that does try to create more opportunity in these working class communities again, we didn't need to hollow out our industrial communities by exporting jobs to China. We didn't need to create all this low-end wage pressure by basically having an open border for so many years so there were choices that we made that did make life rough of these people. And then when they start to complain about it, we censor them or call them deplorables.

And so I do think that the response that the elite has and that really the mainstream media has towards these people does fuel the alienation and polarization. So we could be reacting, we could be reacting a lot better to the complaint here I'll tell you what's happened. I think is America went from you know a country With people pull themselves up by the bootstraps. They believed in radical self-reliance and that they Determined, you know their fate and then over time we've solely looked at the government as the determinant of our fate and You know what handout, what tax break, for the rich, what can I get? What edge can I get on the system?

What angle shot? How can I look at the government as a solution to our problems? What I think all sides of the political spectrum need to look at and celebrate, and this is why I think Chris Christie and Vivek are like really good candidates is because they're not looking at handouts or blaming the government or looking to the government to solve problems, but looking at your community, looking inside yourself and saying, hey, what are the ways in which if I want to, if I want to move up those shraddak and remember, some people work to live, they don't live to work. They just want to do their nine to five, flip their time in and spend time with their families or do their art, whatever. Their job does not define them,

and we are a biased group of entrepreneurs who are defined ourselves in large part by what we do in our work. Doesn't mean we don't care about our families, but we put that front and center. Some people don't want to move up the line. They're happy in content where they are. But the entire dialogue in America is about how unfair we split that tax base. As you talk about Freeberg, the spending and everybody wanting their peace and everybody wondering who got a bigger piece of the pie.

As opposed to wondering, hey, how can I improve myself? How can I provide more value to the world? How can I build a business? How can I build a skill set? And that's where the dialogue needs to move. And I just, when I hear the Vex speak, you know, I disagree with them about a lot of things. I hear Chris Christie speak. I obviously disagree with them about a couple of issues. But I'm liking those candidates and I'm liking the direction they're going.

The Vex has a great line, which is victimization is a choice. And you see different versions of it on both the right and the left. On the left, the victimization is based on identity politics, where if you're born into a certain group, then you're automatically a victim. Regardless of really your circumstances. On the right, it's more, again, it's more of this populist critique, where if you're a working class person, then you've been victimized by those policies. I think there's some degree of truth in both critiques.

I mean, I do think that policymakers have to meet people halfway. We need to have policies that work better for working class. We need to have policies that prevent discrimination. At the same time, people can't just buy into this victimhood mentality where they're like, okay, I don't need to do anything on my own to improve my circumstances. The whole system is so rigged against me that I don't need to take any agency for my own actions.

Also. And I think it needs to be both. We have to have policymakers and people meet halfway on this thing. I also think that there's a social dynamic that's also worth exploring here, which is that we live in a culture where a lot of people spend a lot of time projecting a version of themselves, and that version of themselves is mostly meant to accrue social capital to them, but by implication it's to make other people feel envious of them as well. And that's the whole that I'll call the Instagram phenomenon.

And I also think, I just think it's important to acknowledge that we live in a point where there's this heightened psychological sensation that everybody else is doing better than you are. And so you have to find these mechanisms of rationalizing and explaining. And I think that that's also very dangerous. So Jason, to your point, there is so much respect. You know, a lot of the reason why I spend so much time in Italy is my friends here are just very very simple you guys met so many of them just normal everyday people and happy and they're happy and I have so much respect for that because they have a balance in their life. And one of the things that defines him is they don't spend time in these media formats

that actually exacerbate the sense of being less than everybody else. Competitions. And I find that to be consistent thread amongst all of these people that are really well balanced, that at every strata of whatever line you're on, the healthiest people in each of those lines are the ones that actually have a definition of themselves that comes from within that

is multifaceted, that generally includes a deep relationship with one romantic partner and it includes your kids. Everything else is very much secondary. And it's not defined by where you want to go and where you want to be. It's defined by the day you're living. I had a great conversation after a lot of wine and tequila and beer and I know what else. Uh, no, actually, actually, I forgot the guy's name. So with Drake, I said to the guy, this Italian guy,

it's a mod, I'm sorry, forgot his name, really nice guy. And we were talking about the difference between Americans and Italians, and how the Italians are all about, let's just live for today, enjoy our moment, enjoy our experience, enjoy our time. The Americans all just want to talk about where things are going, where we're headed, what we're looking for, what we're trying to achieve.

And so much about, the irony is, I've got my brother visiting from Europe this week. And so much of the conversation, difference that we've talked about is in America, we talk about winning. It's like everything is a contest. Everything is about getting ahead. Everything is about a challenge. Everything is about what's next.

How do I get to the next level? Scorecard. And that's what's made us the greatest entrepreneurial, you know, society, the greatest 250 years of progress in human history is that spirit. I disagree with that. I disagree with that, but good. It also makes you profoundly sad.

If you only live for the scorecard, and not the game. I don't think entrepreneurs have a scorecard. I don't think they're looking at somebody else saying, I'm gonna beat that guy. I don't think that that's where it comes from. Forget about the term, forget about competition. Just make it about progress. Where am I going?

And that we orient ourselves around where we headed versus where we could, you know, just enjoying this moment that you have today. The moment. And I think that there's a big cultural difference between the US and the guy I was sitting next to it, you're wetting Chimoff. These folks are just very much about enjoying this experience and not thinking about what's next and where we're going. We come in, everyone saunters around, no one's thinking about what time we have to start. Everyone's just enjoying their time with each other. And the Americans are like, when are we starting the wedding?

When are we doing this? When are we doing that? You know? The litmus test for that, I find is when you first meet somebody and I encourage all of you guys to try to do this, is to not go to what do you do as the question right American class how long can you go without asking that question what do you do and I find it's so amazing to actually have conversations with people where that question never comes up amazing to actually have conversations with people where that question never comes up. You really, really, really learn a lot about people.

I think a lot of this also is like, you know, I was watching the center of Tim Scott. I'd love to have him on the program. I know he's maybe not got the highest percentage right now. And we got a bunch of other candidates coming on the program by the way for the audience. But I was just taken back by, I saw Joy Bajar or whatever the host of the view is. Joy Bajar. And Joy Bajar. And she was just admonishing him that he doesn't understand systematic racism.

He's a black man. And he's like, I am the product of the American system. I'm proud of where I got to. And she was, you know, she's constantly trying to make him feel worse that the, you know, the conditions are terrible. It's funny because like, it's a very weird district. It's a very weird district.

Somebody basically saying that Tim Scott is not allowed to be proud of his journey. Basically, that's what she did. Why? Who's right? Who's right? It's that. It just take the win, like just let him, you know,

yeah, it's really weird. And I just wanna take one other moment from the song, because this song got pegged as like, maybe it's propaganda, I don't know if it is. Maybe this guy, people started doing their like, how do we take this guy down? Like the left and the right lunatics, you know, on the fringe, always try to do.

Something happens, that's nice, or, you know, on the fringe. Always try to do. Something happens that's nice or you know, whatever. We got to take the person down and maybe the guy is on the take. I don't know. It's just an artist to me. But he liked where had a playlist of 9-11 conspiracy theories. But he says here in the song, Lord, we got folks in the street and got nothing to eat. And the obese milk and welfare will God, if you're five foot three and you're 300 pounds, taxes ought not to pay for your bags of fun, fudge rounds. Talk about the welfare state. Young men are putting themselves six feet in the ground because all this damn country does is keep kicking them down, referencing, I think, you know, Jordan Peterson and the suicide rate amongst young men and their hopelessness and etc.

It's very hard. I think I would encourage people to be careful trying to pin this as a left or a right song. This is about working class people feeling frustrated with the system, was my read on it. And maybe even fighting back and taking a little bit of their power. But a great song. Congratulations to him. And I hope he writes some more tunes. Reminded me of Pick a Song, like The River by Bruce Springsteen or Telegraph Road by Dyer Straits.

Just so many great songs about the working man. Congratulations on hitting number one. And everybody else can tear it down and in the comments, you can tell us we're out of touch even though we moved up the lines. I think that's, by the way, why some people like this show and you know, have, is because maybe we did move up a couple of lines and maybe we might have a perspective at some point in, you know, how to do that.

Let's move on, I guess. I think everybody got their shot at this. All right, the big short too, Michael Burry. He just made a bet against the markets. This was trending. I'm not sure how much of this is all true, but there's been some reporting on it. Burry's fund has recently bought 866 million

and put options against the S&P and 739 million and puts against the NASDAQ. All these are headline numbers on the SEC. There's probably more to it. Contacts, obviously, we all know the markets ripped. NASDAQ up 37% this year, S&P up 15% this year. Inflation getting cracked. GDP looking strong. Unemployment on the floor. A number of job openings still above 9.X million. Pretty crazy to think about how resilient this economy is with pockets of disastrous stuff, but what's your take on this free bird?

Yeah, I think the reporting's a little wrong on this. So, okay. This came out of a 13F filing and on the 13F filing, you, when you report option contracts, remember each option contract represents a hundred underlying shares. And you don't have to talk about the strike or the expiry on the option contract when you do the 13 F filing. So we don't actually know

what the strike or the expiry is on the option. That dollar amount that's being reported is when they take the number of option contracts multiplied by 100, which is how many shares per contract, and then just use the price on the actual underlying index. He may have paid a dollar in option. He may have had an option that was three years out and we could weigh out of the money. This could be much smaller. It could be a short-term contract.

It's just a near-term hedge on the portfolio. And we have no idea which the actual dollar value of the contract is. It could be really weigh out. It could just be a short-term hedge. So we really don't know directionally or magnetunally how significant this is. So it's a bit of a misreporting

without knowing the strike and the expiry. We don't know how much he actually spent buying these puts and what the bet really means. Is it a near-term bet or long-term? And what's the reason we're- And what's the reason we're- I've his portfolio, Rich. You don't, I mean, have to disclose in a 13 F what your short positions are

And so all you have to do is disclose what your ownership is so my suspicion is that Michael probably has what's called a short straddle on and so a short straddle is when you're basically selling a call and you're buying a put and so we know we've talked about these a lot which is instead of taking a naked exposure for $1.6 billion, which seems very aggressive and risk on. And he's not the type of guy if you look at his creating activity that does that kind of stuff. His typical positions are 50 basis points, 80 basis points, 100 basis points. So he's not a big risk taker. So what he probably has on is what's called the short straddle. And what you don't have to disclose in these 13 Fs is the other side of the trade where you're short of call And so I suspect that's what that is. So this is a big much ado about nothing. It's good headlines in a moment where there's not much to talk about. It's August and the media, you know, this is The media business losing its business model and Google and Facebook taking all their revenue and Craigslist and

Facebook, you know marketplace taking all their and Michael by the way Michael grab it on Twitter and tell us that we're wrong But I would yeah, dollars to know that he's he's got a short strap didn't he go off but winner? He's like done with Twitter. He goes on and off and he auto deletes his tweets So I said a Zapier up anytime he tweets if it in the slackroom for me. Have you guys know that the quantity of I'm drinking this is my I know we're gonna learn Well, you guys tubes in that. No, but let me just say this look I'm I'm back in the United States next week. So this is the end of the vacation end of it

It's end of a one month where I don't exercise except for swimming and walking I eat gelato every day And I drink wine every day. So this is the end. And then I'm back. What's the weight difference? Day one to day 30. What's day one to day 30? Look at that perfectly chilled mantra, Shay. Look at that.

The glass is perfectly chilled. I can see the condensation. I see the condensation from beer. I gained two and a half kilos. So what does that five pounds? It's fine. You get less livable. That's livable. I have a moderate four pack.

That's two weeks a month, Jarno, no big deal. Yeah, no, you'll be back in the game with a little bit of it, we'll get you back in the game, kid. I'm gonna see Jake Helen about in about an hour. Freeberg and I are going on a love walk. We have a lot of romantic moments, so we're just gonna do a little. Can I shift the very short back into?

Oh yeah, just my last point on the burden thing. The media needs to do a better job of making sure they understand these things just a bit because the headline is just a little bit weird. Totally. Without knowing the context. It's very hard to be a finance writer, you know, because if you're a great finance writer, you could be in finance and be a capital allocator. Oh, hey kids. Oh, where's the monkeys? Where are the monkeys? I'm so sorry. Hold on, hey kids. Oh, yeah, where's the monkeys? Where are the monkeys?

I'm so sorry, I'm so sorry. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Did it even get a gelato? Yeah, let me fix it, let me fix it. Let me fix it. Where's the gelato? Ooh. You know what I'm saying?

You know, these two kids this past week were literally like jumping. Oh, you didn't know. The shit there was a light. There was the camera. They were jumping in the sea. These two kids were swimming without any help whatsoever. It was the camera. They were jumping in the sea. These two kids were swimming without any help whatsoever. It was the most incredible thing to see. When little kids learn how to swim,

is it joyous? It's joyous. It's joyous. It's joyous. Okay, back to you guys. Sorry. Back to you. I love you. I love you. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye Let's talk about wealth disparity from Tell you coast All right, I think you're a monk with your $500 a month. They're hat. Let's talk about wealth disparity go No, it's my point's not about wealth disparity. Okay, sorry I think we should fall up on where the economy is right now and and what the macro situation It's like a why Michael Barry might want a short the market. Yes, so in terms of where things stand today I think the consensus view of the street is that inflation is largely in the review mirror. It was down to 3% last month. And the bet now, I think, is that it will continue to remain low. It will be in this 2 and after 3%

range at the end of the year. And therefore, the Fed will be able to cut rates next year, and the market has rallied quite a bit in anticipation of that. I think that is the consensus view. I think there are at least two really big risk factors to that. One is that inflation could still rebound. We haven't really gotten that many months

of good inflation data. And if inflation ticks back up, if there's another wave of it in the next several months, then there will not be rate cuts next year. And that means if there's another wave of it in the next several months and then will not be rate cuts next year and that means if it's rates are higher than anticipated valuations come down. So that would be a big risk factor to the market. The other big risk factor is I think in the real economy. It's true that the economy does not seem to be hurt so far by these huge interest rate hikes that we've had however there is typically a big lag in the impact on the real economy of rate hikes and i think you could still see

these rate hikes take effect over the next several months and you could see a real dip in the economy potentially a recession and that would be a big risk factor to the market because right now the the markets are pricing in a soft landing or no landing, they're pricing at the company. We're just gonna go fly by. Right, right. So what is the evidence that there might be a lag? Well, a couple of things, and it really has to do

with real estate, which I think is the most impacted asset class by rate hikes. You saw that the mortgage rate is the highest has been in over 20 years. Yeah, since 1727. 7.09%. And the rates I'm in over 20 years. Yeah, since 17.7. 7.09%. And the rates I'm seeing in Florida and other places,

mortgages are like 8%. Well, if it's going to cost you 8% to buy a new house, and it used to be 3% a couple of years ago, you're not going to be able to afford to buy that same level of house. And you can't afford to sell your current house and buy a new one, because your current house is finan finance to 3%. You're not going to give a mortgage to trade it into an 8% mortgage. So we're already seeing a huge reduction in the number of transactions

in residential real estate. And so that means that we're not seeing a lot of fresh marks in terms of where prices are. But that doesn't mean the valuations haven't gone lower. I think that as this washes through the system, you could see a big correction in the values of residential real estate, which is most people's main asset. So I think there's a big risk factor there. The other big risk factor is on the commercial real estate side. There was an interesting article on the Wall Street Journal about distress funds are forming in anticipation of a lot of commercial real estate projects basically going under.

So the vultures on Wall Street are going to be looking to scoop up these projects. I think the really interesting thing about commercial real estate right now is multifamily. Until now, the conversation has all been about office space and we know that office space is impaired Because of the high vacancy rates that this the sector just hasn't come back the same way from home since COVID right exactly But now we're starting to see real distress in the multi-family sector now Why is this happened because multi-family is full? There's no vacancy problem? Yeah, we it's hard to get a home and more people would be renting if more is just high. So the problem is on the demand side. The problem is in the capital stack. So let me describe the problem of what's happened

here is let's say that you are a real estate developer who bought multi-family. You bought it at a certain price level. Let's say you finance it-thirds with debt. You now need to go out and refinance that project because let's say you did a value add, let's say you basically disarm improvements to it, that means you didn't put long-term debt on it. You can't put long-term debt on a project that's not stabilized yet. If you want to do value add work to it, you get what's called a construction loan for two or three years. So there's a lot of real estate developers who need to go out right now and finance these projects that they bought. And they bought these projects at the top of

the market. So let's say you're going out now to refinance. First of all, the rates are much higher. You're looking at paying eight or nine percent instead of the three to four percent that you had penciled in your model a couple of years ago. Moreover, there's another problem, which is potentially even worse, which is low into value. You had basically gotten two thirds, low into value a couple of years ago, but values were much higher. Now, values are lower because, again, multiples have shrunk as the interest rates have gone up. And so the amount that you can finance is much lower. So you either have to top that off by coming out of pocket with your own equity or you have to go to one of these

mezzanine funds. So now this is sharp funds, they are total sharks and they're going to charge you not eight or nine percent, but like 15 percent. So your capital stack has basically is completely upside down. You thought that you could borrow all this money really cheaply but now it is super expensive and this project no longer pencils Meaning you're underwater from a you got negative leverage on the project and so I think you're gonna see Again, not just impaired office space now impaired multi-family and there is not I think a sector of real estate developer who is not In distress right now if they need financing in the next year or two. That's what do you get to do in a race from Hesh? Right.

David, David, what do you do if you're long these assets? Do you just default on them and just give them back to the bank? One major real estate guy told me that the big guy is like, you know, Blackstone. The words he used was they are throwing their keys at the bank, meaning they are so underwater, they're not even going to bother trying to figure out a workout. They're just going to give the key, they're just going to say to the bank, you own this asset now, and they're going to move on to the next fund. That was his take at least. You sent a tweet to the group chat about the last line of like hope, which was called a hope note, which is like, we're one of these mes-finance, it was just take your property, and then if they happen to hit your

high water mark again later on, that you would get that, you would get some, you know, itty to insurance and get a little taste of the sale. Chimap, you had a tweet about the housing, then what's your take? Well, no, my only bottom-around housing was that very much just supporting what Satya said. Like, we're in an incredibly untenable situation, mostly because as rates go Well, no, my only bottom-around housing was that very much just supporting what SACs just said. Like, we're in an incredibly untenable situation, mostly because as rates go up, mortgage applications go down.

And so what you're seeing is just like the number of people trying to transact is very small. And so the inventory is very small. And so SACs said, well, so I don't really have much to add, except that when you think about where this lands squarely in terms of the wealth creation that it's supposed to represent, or most Americans, it's a very difficult situation. It's a very difficult situation. This is, I actually think the, like, people talk about the political pressure from the

White House to the Fed. And I think that this actually is probably a very powerful lens with which to look at it. And the reason is because this touches all voters in every state across all political lines. And I think when people talk about is the economy doing well or is the economy not doing well and as a result, where are your political leanings? I think something like this actually represents a much larger percentage of how people represent whether they feel they're doing well than any other thing. Even earnings quite honestly because I think that a home is just such a fundamentally visceral psychological component of safety. And so a percentage, a large percentage are well and 60% of people own one and the people own one are the people who vote So it may only be 60% of people, but it might be 80% of voters. I'm not sure. I think I think that's that could probably be very well Be true. So my only point in in that was just more that

This could actually if the Fed is susceptible to political pressure I think this is the kind of thing that pressures them to move forward the point at which they start cutting and to start to let go of the release valve, just because there's just too much pressure in the system. If you like to talk, if you like to talk, yeah, there's talk of them doing a safety rate hike, doing another 25 bips the end of the year,

just to be safe. And, you know, I think one of the things we've learned here is, I don't think the data really supports that. No, but they've made poor decisions this whole time. And this is not like the feds impact with this tool is not like driving a car where you hit the accelerator, you hit the brake and you get an immediate reaction. This is more like driving a train where like,

it takes a little while to get up to speed. And if you slam on the brakes, this thing can come off the rails. Yeah. And that's the scary part for me. Just to build on what's actually the most interesting thing about this for me is that typically we think about the fed as being very silent in election years. They really don't try to get that involved mostly because they don't want to

seem like they're tipping an election one way or the other. The problem that we have is that rates are at a near-term high. The tenure is ratcheting up faster than we ever expected. It's rallied in terms of rates, meaningfully more than anybody thought, since the beginning of the year. And so now we're in this odd position where will the Fed cut? And why will they cut? And if they cut, will they cut sooner than they would have?

If they hold on, is it that they just want the country to enter a recession? In which case they want to see, quote unquote, regime change? It's a very interesting set of financial and political politics that I don't think we've seen in recent years. Yeah. Well, there's a lot of real estate developers who are literally hanging on by their fingernails and they're hoping and praying for a rate cut.

The problem they're gonna have is that even if inflation doesn't rebound, even if the Fed does cut rates next year, the rate that the Fed cuts is the short rate is basically the Fed funds rate. That's at 5.5% right now. Even if they cut that to call it three to 4% next year, there's no guarantee that the Fed funds rate, that's at 5.5% right now. Even if they cut that to call it three to 4% next year, there's no guarantee that the 10-year rate, which is what real estate developers get financed on,

will move down. Like the 10-year rate is what is it now at like a four point for 1.5% something like that? And that rate may not come down. A lot of economists are worrying about this, Larry Summers worried about this, because the federal government has such huge financing needs. And so just because short rates come down, it's no guarantee that the long rate is going

to come down. And so there may not be this relief that real estate developers are looking for next year. And again, there's this wall of debt that has to be refinanced. I'll give you an example from my own portfolio. I have a building just to simplify the valuation. You've got a couple of buildings, but okay. You try to have that one. Building that's worth about $15 million. It's an office building

Okay, there's a nine million dollar loan on it that is coming up to be refinanced at the end of the year So I'm talking to the lender about rolling it over and What they agreed to do here here are the terms They agreed to give me 2.4 million Out of the nine secured by the building. That's it They they wouldn't roll over the nine. They don't give me two point four. For the other six point six, they want to meet a post additional collateral in the form of public securities. So they basically want

to meet a fleet collateralized alone. So in other words, they're adding like a margin account on top of exactly right. That's exactly right. That's exactly right. That's exactly right. Over collateralized the building with a bunch of security. So why do you need a lot of real estate? Yeah. Yeah. They want me to personally guarantee it. So why don't you just sell the shares and you just sort of participating for hurting your building? No, you're still participating, preferting your building. What the fuck? Right. So when I took out a margin loan on his own security portfolio, so what I said is, listen, I don't need this,

so I'm just gonna pay it off. So I'm gonna pay off out of some of the loan and also own the building 100% and when this credit crunches over, whether it's next year or two or so, yeah, yeah. I'll just refi it then. But here's the thing,

the average developer can't do that. Like, how do they go out and get that extra nine million? Well, Zach, let's just point out the opportunity cost to you. You could buy treasuries that pay you five and a half percent. So your actual cost on that capital that you're using to finance the building yourself to buy, you know, to buy the debt is costing you five and a half percent a year of risk-free income for the nine million.

Yeah, it's not a pleasant situation. It's something that I can manage through. But my point is that this is something that's going to be afflicting pretty much every real estate developer needs to refinance in the next year or so. And they don't have what you have, which is the balance of the G-Six to be able to do that. Yeah, exactly. They don't have to back, they don't have to chip stack. And by the way, my real estate guys tell me that this deal that I got offered is a good deal right now. Oh, it's a good deal because when I have a good deal, at least they were trying to be flexible and work with me.

Most of these lenders, they're just like not even open for business. I heard there's just no bid. I mean, this guy, these guys I know that work in commercial real estate debt said they're putting out these syndicated loan proposals to the typical funders. And there's no bid. They're like, well, just tell me the right. They're like, there is no right. There's no bid.

Well, interesting news. We've been talking a little bit about these bond offerings, et cetera. The US is with the higher yields still continuing to draw buyers. Japan, very soft in terms of getting people to buy their securities and 127 billion a share into funds that invested treas is on pace for our record year. Bank, America Corp said last week. All right, let's move on to, we got Nvidia left on the docket. We got Hopin as a pig's zirp.

The founder sold out a lot of shares. Let's pick one of these stories. Or we got the SBA, which is going to be big drama next year when this goes to court. Or, sacks we could go. Those are the stories. There's not a lot of meat on them. I think let's just spend five months. Should we do the indictment giving you your red meat?

Oh, me giving me my red meat. I think five minutes of you ranting and doing your TDS and then we can wrap. All right. Well, listen, I don't want to speak to your TSS, your Trump Stockholm syndrome, but I will say that Trump, yes, has his fourth indictment. You thought the hat trick was a lot, and now he's got four. Fulton County, Georgia, 13 felony counts, but this one's incredible. It's got a lot of co-conspirators, and all I'll say is there is a small town in Georgia.

Coffee is, I think, the name of it. And there were a bunch of election machines and a group of this whack pack went in there and committed a bunch of cyber crimes accordingly. And it's not clear yet, but when this thing goes to trial, just keep an eye on that. There's an incredible law fair article and we'll put it in the show notes and

A podcast, but I think that opening up the aperture of it is what's really interesting to me What I'm seeing is I think there's a lot of viable moderate Republican candidates that would appeal to somebody like me. I have voted 25% Republican 75% A Democrat. I'm a moderate but left leaning moderate. I would say on social issues Fiscal issues. I'm definitely in the Republican camp, but I'm looking at Christie. I'm looking at the VAC I'm looking at a lot of those kind of Republicans even Tim Scott and saying you know what? Maybe that's a better choice than Biden who is very senile and I think the Republican party has its moment right now to just associate

itself and say enough with the Michuguna, enough of Trump. You're starting to see Pence come out very strongly, it's Axe. Vivek is still bootlicking, I think, and is still trying to get the VP spot with Trump. I think it's a huge mistake. I think Christie, and maybe it's time for your guy, DeSantis, who is in the pardon camp as well, but maybe it's time for him to, you know, maybe start criticizing him.

And then I think it's time to negotiate a pardon for both Trump and Under Biden. Pardon both of them, get him out of political life, and let's move on as a country. I believe that you're gonna to see Chris Christie and the Vex surge. It's going to be a three horse race with the Santas and I think Trump's going to be out of the race in the next six to twelve month. That's just my prediction. Your thoughts? Saxe. Well, I want to give you a chance here to expound on your blue meat, not

red meat for you. It's blue meat. Blue meat. Your TDS is flaring up again, Jason. I think it's not. No, not. So let me ask you to expound on this part and theory because you claim that you think that Trump is now playing for a pardon. That's a big plan for a pardon. Yes. The case.

Explain that. How do you get for your? I think he is going to go buck wild. He is, you know, lashing out, et cetera, in the hopes that he can cause so much chaos because you're seeing him, you know, with these tweets that are kind of border lighting on violence and inciting people, gag orders, that kind of stuff. I think he's going to keep pushing the envelope to the point at which he breaks the Republican party makes Americans really burned out because the Republicans can't win with him.

He's got like 30% support wherever he's not going to be by it. You've said that before. I think everybody knows it. He's the weakest candidate of the field. And I think you guys really want to get a win and you want to move past him. So I think this combination of the Republican party flipping on him and you're starting to see the crack, you know, and people starting to criticize him. Once the evidence comes out and people see him in court and people hear the details of

his criminal behavior, his abhorrent behavior, his behavior, that Vivek, Governor Christie, you know, either side of the aisle would never participate in. I think there's going to be kind of the United States is going to say, you know what, pardon him, blanket pardon, if he just steps out of public life. And I think Biden's going to need a pardon too for Hunter. And so I think this could be the solution for everybody to move forward. It sounds crazy. But I think that the stuff that's going to come out is going to be much worse than Watergate,

specifically, again, a reference, the article of some of the behavior of his whack pack and what they were doing, you know, in Coffee County, like the beverage, coffee counter-charger, when you start hearing what they did, you know, lying, forging documents and basically committing computer crimes, this woman who Trump, a Sydney pal, Trump put his fate in Sydney pal and Trump, a Sydney pal, Trump put his fate in Sydney pal in Giuliani. It's a critical era. And I think it's all going to blow up in his lap. These people were lunatics.

They were committing crimes. And I think they're going to get him. And I think he's going to need a pardon. So he's not built for jail. I can tell you Trump is not built for jail. Well, this is one problem with your theory, Jason. Go ahead. President can't pardon, stay crimes.

That is true. I think they, Jason. Go ahead. President can't pardon state crimes. That is true. I think they could be a grand negotiation. This Georgia, a rico entitement can't be pardoned. Well, however, I do think that there could be a plea. And so this could plea out. I think they probably want to plea it out. Every, well, all people want to plea this stuff out, right? Both sides.

That's it. All of a good to go. You can go to church. You're about to talk about it. Well, all people want to plea this stuff out, right? Both sides. That's it. All the good guys. I see what you're about to talk about. I know. And you know what? If you want to talk about deep state conspiracies and sacks believes in this deep state conspiracy, here's a conspiracy.

I know. I just think that you can't have the all-forging. I just think that you cannot think rationally when it comes to this stuff. Okay. Fine. You didn't know that Biden appointed Merrick Garland. You didn't know that these Georgia, Georgia crunching, they've been hard at it. You're not going to get the federal and the state crime.

Of course I do. Of course I do. I've talked about it being not parted and a bull before. I think there is going to be a grand reconciliation. I think everybody's gonna get together and say, how do we move on? And that might even be underway right now. The one thing that's definitely not gonna happen

is Trump takes a plea deal. He's gonna fight this to the better. Last look at the fucking. You know what's gonna happen? I said it back in August. What is your name? I said it last August when they read it more or logo is that the way they're carrying on with this these law fair attacks on Trump. We now have the fourth indictment. Apparently he's a mobster. They're going after him with a rico statue that was invented to get organized crime and mobsters. And apparently, these lawyers you relied on, as dopies, they were apparently they're like button men for

the mob who have to be entitled as well into this rico statue. I think people can see this for what it is, which is it's a, hmm, I don't know the other way. I mean, it's basically law fair, right? They're bending the law in any way they can't to go after Donald Trump. And I know that his behavior wasn't, wasn't good in this, but I don't think it was. Do you think anything might be criminal? No, I'm part of that. 100% you don't think it's criminal? Interesting.

Let's look at that Fox News poll where they asked. Do you think the Republican party, let me show you this, do you think the Republican party is going to cut ties? I think the Fox News poll asked the right question, which is, in connection with the efforts to overturn 2020 election, did Donald Trump do something illegal, something wrong, not illegal? Nothing seriously wrong. I'm in the middle, I'm in the middle bucket.

I think it was wrong, but not illegal. I think that what Democrats are doing with this partisan law fair is that they are polarizing the outcomes. They're either going to send Donald Trump to the big house or to the White House. That's what I said back in August last year when they raided more a lot of those. They're gonna send them to the big house or the White House. I'm here for the pardon.

I'm here for the pardon. Do you think the Republican party is going to support him or do you think they're gonna break ties and try to move on? And what do you think they should do? As I explained this, they see the way in which the law is being misused, is being weaponized in a partisan way

to get one of the major candidates for president. They're trying to drive him out of the election. I know, do you think the Republicans are gonna stand by him as he goes to court and these trials start up? I think that there are. There's. There's. Of course, they're rallying around him.

It's ensuring that he will be the nominee. Okay. I think they're gonna cut ties. And the Republican party is going to expel him. Jake help. Did you know it also predict that Jeff Bezos was going to run for president? I think Jeff Bezos will run in his lifetime. And not necessarily this one. I said, you know, I think Jeff Bezos will run in his lifetime. I think when you Jeff Bezos is living his best life on a yacht with a totally high-class friend. You know, you can't do that for do that nice yacht and then I was like 500 million your yacht delivers his toast every morning

Oh my god, you have friends. Is this watch spot by your trying to get back in the ring He'll do he'll do five ten years. I'm good five years max five years max on yacht. He get bored out of your mind It's so crazy my yacht has a support vehicle his yacht has a support country It's so crazy my yacht has a support vehicle his yacht has a support country It's called Malta Your support yacht is his thing. It's five years. That's the max you can do on a yacht He's boated one year on a yacht. Sax did one year on a yacht never again. He's done. It's too boring Gatsah boring Yeah, Jake out things is a groundswell to put guys with huge yachts in office. I think I think

I think I'm listening to that song. You play. No, I think Bezos. Yeah, you're someone with Bloomberg trip. He's been a hundred million. Oh, man. That's the first question. The first debate boom. He's out. No, no, he, he missed his window. I would, man, Bloomberg would have been great. I've got Bloomberg. I've got Jeff. Jeff, Jake, I was betting on the yacht grounds, well, I mean, a boy can dream. Are you telling me you wouldn't vote for base us if he was a, yes, yes. Of course you would. Would you vote for Bloomberg? Of course you would.

You want an executive. That's what the country needs. A professional, a ground, who's your non-traditional candidate, freeberg? Who would you love most? know like a you know not going to obviously run or like it would be a small chance Would you have see? Yeah, it's an economist and the oh okay, it was an economist. They're just terrible Political speakers. They're just not good at that. It would be your wild card Hold on a second. I'm texting that to bring me another class of mine.

Oh God. He's so drunk. I think we're wrapping up. He's done the last four. Oh, he's done the last four. That's last four on air. We don't know how many he pregame keep going, keep going, keep going. I'm going to keep pregame.

He pregame. He pregame. Sacks who is your wild card. If you had to pick a wild card, non-traditional, not for this election, but for an election somebody who is not part of his Peter Till Adip this election. Listen. I've I've supported other financially or at least verbally RFK junior DeSantis and Vivek. I mean how many more candidates do I have to support? I'm well, you got me a favor

You're claiming to Trump. What are you gonna Well, if you guys give me a favor, and you're clean to Trump, what are you gonna know? Trump. How about you? How about your guy, young, supporting three candidates, not named Trump, but for you, it's never enough. But no, I want to hear you.

Drummond of the boss, I say, but we'll see. It's some day you will. Some day you'll stand up against him. I said, what about playing you? It was wrong. I just don't think it was organized crime.

It wasn't a rico and diamond. I want to hear you say he should drop out of the race as an influencer in the party. I want you to say you should drop out. That's all I want you to say. All right, let's move on. How about you? I want to talk about it. I want to talk about it.

No, I want to talk about it. Odyan being down 40% of it. Okay. Odsa is a stock web public. That's the competitor to Stripe. Since 2018, this was incredible. Since 2018, Odyan incredible. Since 2018, Audien has reported every six month period of growth at these

26% or greater, and they reaffirmed a 65% EBITDA margin, and they were down at one point today, 40%. Oh, holy cow. And so if you look at, if you look at Adyen, what does it mean about Stripe? And I think the answer is that Stripe at that $50 billion, $55 billion is worth $25 billion. So there's a 50% mark down right there. That's a 25.

That 100. Big down 100., that 100, a 100 bill. Gurley had a great tweet on this. Multiple compression as a bitch. Multiple. The same thing that's happening real long time. Same thing that's happening in real state.

Yeah. The reason why that is. I might be a by. It might be a by. The reason those multi-family developers are getting whammyed right now is again, it's not because of vacancy.

Everyone wants their apartments. The problem is multiple compressions. The value is much lower, which means they can't get as much debt. So all of a sudden, they got a pony up a bunch of equity or get expensive mes to fill out the capital stack. This is the problem is there's multiple compression everywhere. And it's just taking time. Yes.

It's taking time to work through the system. This is a train. What is stripe? We're not a car. David, where do you buy sex? Where do you buy straight? I think you're right. I think that we have a almost perfect comp there. So yeah, you're right, down 46% year to date. That doesn't even include what happened last year. Right? Yeah. So I should try to you 2022. The thing to remember about all these businesses, Stripe, Adyen, PayPal, is that they're

middlemen businesses, which by definition means that they don't have pricing power. They actually have to reflect the prevalent pricing power of the incumbent sponsors of their technology. So, for example, if you have a deal with McDonald's, McDonald's bids you out to five different people, and they pick the cheapest one, right? So your margins over time tend to be compressed. And over time, your share of profits tend to be compressed and you have to give up a lot. So how do you maintain profitability? So an odd yen maintains 65% EBITDA margins in the face of this revenue decline. The only way they can do that is by cutting staff using more technology and creating off-ex leverage that replaces what they're losing. So the real takeaway is that they, this is a very

tough, tough business that is a race to the bottom. And it is a surplus business that benefits the buyer, i.e. the ubers, the McDonalds, the door dashes of the world, not the seller, i.e. the ubers, the McDonald's, the doordashes of the world, not the seller, i.e. the audience, the PayPal's, the stripes. It, what's the changing quest? You know, if you're, if you're Uber and you negotiated a deal for three years, which stripe, and then you go to adian and you negotiate your next deal, and they want to win it, because they need the top line revenue, and now you got a dogfight, you know, let alone all the other players who are going to do it. They're all race to the bottom businesses.

And so tough business. Tough business. If you have a very diffused business model where you're trying to do too many things, and so as a result, you have a somewhat bloated op-ex relative to a company that's going to do a lot less, but do it just much better, I think you're going to be very challenged. Well, this could be the buying opportunity for a lot of these equities, if you believe in them in a long term. So Dan Loeb is placing a bunch of bets.

He bought some Uber, he bought Nvidia, he's out there buying up stuff. So we'll see. Let's talk about day-aport. I think this is a very interesting one. We didn't get to it last week. Penn Gaming, a gambling company, and gambling has become legal in the United States. Sports wagering has been accepted by the NBA, ESPN, TV shows, everything. It's been incorporated into gambling for fucking 30 years.

Now it's been integrated into. You know what funny is on glass. All the buttons are gone. When I bought a piece of the Warriors, the funniest thing was I got a call from the NBA, because you have to submit like this huge application, like, you know, everything opened the commando. Okay. And they knew that I was a big fucking sports better.

And they were like, hey, dipshit, will allow you to sports bet in Vegas if you show the tickets. But otherwise, you know, they knew who my book he was. They were like, you cannot call this guy anymore. You can't sports. It was crazy. Well, then I caught call.

BEEP. OK. Don't, barcass. Don't say he's fucking a bitch. I said BEEP. BEEP. Uh, so, uh, so, uh, Nick, Nick, delete the fucking. Nick, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, don't, first part. Don't do that. That didn't put the bed. That's small

Solty okay rapid come on. We got to go. Let's go for I really I love you guys. I love you guys and I miss you guys. I love you guys. I can't wait to come back. I can't wait to come back for this. Did I, oh, please, Bob? All right. So am I going to see you when I get to LA?

I'd like to see you. Sure. I come to you. When do you get here Thursday? No, Wednesday. Wednesday. Wednesday, like one. Oh, yeah, I'm here.

Probably got the group shot with Drake. Trishat after I get here. J. Kelly and I have a lunch date. We got to go. OK. So for the queen of Kenwa, the Sultan of science, the architect, the sasshole himself, and the dictator, Jamal. I love you guys.

Drunky monkey, Jamal polyhapatia, I am. Undoubtedly, the world's greatest moderator. We'll see you next time. Besties are gone, don't drink. That's my dog, take it away. I wish you're dry, wait. Sit next. Wait, no. Oh man, I might have to get out of the room, meet me at the place.

We should all just get a room and just have one big hug, George, because they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual tension, but we just need to release that out. What, your, that beat, what, your, your, your beat. Beat, beat, what? What, what, what your bb bb We need to get merch these aren't it? I'm doing all this! you