All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more

Starting point is 00:00:00 I found out about a free bird purchase that is just, you were there, Chimal, you heard what you bought. What did I buy? Pickles? The keynote? What was it? No, no, no. Sack, you missed this because you are a sunbird now and the rest of us are snowbirds over

Starting point is 00:00:15 the holidays, but the three of us have been hanging out skiing, having dinner for a couple of weeks. Can we have a little wives dinner? And one of the wives was complaining about the suit that we need. Freeberg's purchases. Oh my god. So freebergs, do you have pictures of the radiation suits?

Starting point is 00:00:32 I don't have pictures of the radiation. You're trying to find them. Radiation suits. I thought you're going to talk about like brianese suits or something. No radiation suits. You know how you went into full scope panic mode and you, during COVID and you had your whole outfit

Starting point is 00:00:46 You're here your hazmat suit Friedberg just because he's Panicked about nuclear proliferation has bought suits for his entire family Thousands of dollars of radiation suits and nuclear fallout and he bought one for his dog Dog dogs dogs dogs. Sorry dogs for Monti and Daisy Uschitz and you guys the photo of the dog bunker. I mean, I've got it all taken care of you need a bunker first, right?

Starting point is 00:01:18 I think that's underway as well. How do you get to your bunker freeberg with with the pilots that you'll be asking to leave their families? You'll be protecting them with the guns that were stolen from the house. At least you'll have the thousands of pickles you've made. That's the balance of people. I didn't know freeberg was a prepper. Did you know this, Sacks? Because Sacks has a little prepper. No, Sacks freeberg was hailing because he was so mad. He made like thousands and thousands of pickles,

Starting point is 00:01:47 and nobody would eat them, including himself. Because they were so terrible. You literally bought a radiation pod for your dogs. Yeah, so that's their air filter on the right, so that they don't breathe in and you clear fall out. Call out. I like the prepping. Thank you, sir.

Starting point is 00:02:03 Yeah, it's good. You guys don't understand. There's a reason evolution happens in moments of what we call punctuated equilibrium. I like the prepping. Thank you, sir. Yeah, it's good. You guys don't understand. There's a reason evolution happens in moments of what we call punctuated equilibrium. There's a massive event and certain things survive and then that becomes the proliferent species going forward. This is the moment. Be ready.

Starting point is 00:02:18 Sure. You're saying paranoid rich white guys are going to survive the nuclear holocaust. That's what you're saying. Paranoid rich white tech guys are going to make it to the other side. Connid. How exciting. That's what a great future. What a future, Trimoff.

Starting point is 00:02:32 Trimoff and I are like, we'd rather die. That touches my erogenous zones. Just the idea that when sacks and free burger, the only two reproducing nails left, delicious. Can you imagine they're the jane pool? Oh my god. It's like literally this is like some dystopian science fiction. This is like a black mirror episode. You'll have the pastiest preppers in the world. Pasty preppers to inherit the earth.

Starting point is 00:02:58 Like your winners ride. Rainman David. And it said we open source into the fans and they've just got Welcome back to the program everybody. It is the new year, but it's the same squad. Your four besties are here. Shemoth, Polly Hoppetia, he is now not just the dictator. He is chairman dictator calling in from the slopes with his beautiful burnt sweater. That's a great sweater. It's a major turtle not going on there. And we have David Friedberg also looks like he's on the slopes and he is wearing his oh hello, his oh hello, not my hollow, oh hello, hat. He is branding here on the all in podcast, sneaking in a little branding for his new startup that he is the CEO of. David Sacks is with us, of course, and he cleaned up.

Starting point is 00:03:52 He cleaned up a little bit here. The hair was getting out of control. We had a lot of commentary on the hair. Apparently, you cleaned up shop. I pivoted from the Jefferson to the Gecko. All right, so everybody loves when we do our predictions. And so we're going to start off 2024, big year for us. We have a lot going on here and all in.

Starting point is 00:04:09 And we're going to just do some predictions here. So let's get started. We're going to kick it off with SACS doing his prediction for the biggest political winner in 2024. SACS, who do you have? Which prediction for who's going to be the biggest winner in 2024? We're bracing. Well, who's going to be the biggest winner in 2024? We're bracing.

Starting point is 00:04:26 Yeah, well, you're going to love this, Jake Hal. My prediction for biggest political winner in 2024 is Vladimir Putin. Oh, I know. 2023, last year, was a year that Putin turned it all around. He stayed by his economy after the West attempt to sanction him to his knees, tried to collapse his economy, we issued a basic and arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.

Starting point is 00:04:51 He has gained the upper hand military in Ukraine. I think that 2024 will be a year of him consolidating gains in Ukraine, potentially making new gains. I think that the stalemate narrative that our media has propagated about Ukraine will be exposed as a lie. I think the Russians are in fact winning that war. And what you're seeing is that his successful stance against the West in Ukraine has only made him more influential throughout the global south and in the brics countries.

Starting point is 00:05:26 Countries that. A pose American dominance and dollar hegemony see him as the man with a plan is a bit of a conquering hero. I think as project Ukraine falls apart in 2024 it's only going to reinforce that sense that he's the big winner. 2024, it's only going to reinforce that sense that he's the big winner. Sex, did you see that Argentina said they're not going to join Bricks? And that's some have said that was a bit of a blowback on the Bricks effort to end dollar hergemony. And do you think it's really impactful? Or is it just a one off?

Starting point is 00:05:59 I think it's a one off. I mean, Melee won in a big surprise there because the country's economy has been such a basket case and he is very pro-American, pro-Israel, pro-West. And so he has distance, Argentina from Bricks, but I think that's a little bit of a one-off. The larger issue is that the whole global South now is really resisting the collective west in a number of different ways. And so our influence and dominance is solely declining across the world. And there's many examples of that.

Starting point is 00:06:36 So we can get into it throughout the show. Just to be clear with the audience, you're not rooting for Putin here. You're just predicting he's the biggest winner. I'm not rooting for it to happen. I've got other answers here that I think are negatives as well. I wish we had made a peace deal and avoided this whole Ukraine war. I think that was a gigantic mistake by the West. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:06:58 You think they're about that? You think they're about that? We have put Putin in this position to be the victor because we plunged into a war without thinking it through. And the truth is we can't give Ukraine enough aid to have them actually win this war. So we've contributed massively to Putin being this victor. And it was Fiona Hill, who is a Russia hawk in the foreign policy establishment, who pointed out in a speech, I think over the

Starting point is 00:07:25 past year, that the global south is using this Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel against the west. So in the same way that we're using Ukraine as a proxy against Russia, she said the global south was using Russia as a proxy against the west as a way to basically dethrone American hegemony all over the world. And that's a very negative trend. So if you had Ukraine and Putin in under seven minutes for this episode, you bet the under you win. Freeberg, who is your prediction for the biggest political winner in politics for 2024?

Starting point is 00:07:59 I'm going to go with independent third party in the US. We saw the stats last week. I think we reviewed them with a poll that showed that 60 plus percent of people are claiming interest in a third party or an independent effort outside of the traditional damn Republican split. And if you look at in 1992, Ross Perot got 18 to 19 percent of the general election vote. RFK juniors obviously running on an independent ticket this year. We'll see if you can even get on the ballot in a bunch of states. But I think that whether it's him or the interest in developing a third party in the US that there may be a big

Starting point is 00:08:39 winner this year that challenges the traditional two-party split in this country. All right. And, Shemoth, who do you got for your biggest political winner in the 20th-24th? I think this election starts the breakdown of the two-party system. Same same. Look at that. RFK this week actually just got added to the Utah ballot. I think that this could be the most meaningful long-lasting change that we see in American politics

Starting point is 00:09:04 is from the RFK candidacy. I mean, how many people do you guys know that were Republicans that don't want to be Republicans anymore or were Democrats and don't want to be Democrats anymore? It's really like most so many people I know more of the latter. I know more of the latter actually than I do. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's what I think I think Republicans are still firmly established. I think people are embarrassed to be a Democrat right now. Interestingly, I also picked the Dark Horse President to show candidate who will be treasonous and corrupt, AKA Trump and Biden. I think we're gonna actually see some Dark Horse candidate

Starting point is 00:09:35 maybe beat these two and the rematch that nobody wanted. Wow, that's crazy. Three of the four of us picked the same thing. No coordination beforehand. Yes, and this is done blind folks. And Nick has my notes here so he can vouch for me here. And just to go back and look at 2023, what we predicted, Sachs, you said, Asian American college applicants, we're going to be your biggest winner in politics. That actually turned out to be pretty prescient, right? Yeah, I mean, I was betting on court cases overruling affirmative action.

Starting point is 00:10:06 And that's exactly what happened is that Supreme Court ruled against affirmative action in college admissions, saying that it unlawfully discriminated against Asian Americans. So yeah, that worked out exactly right. So that's a great prediction. I think, Tramat, you had perhaps the best prediction of even the entire show last year. Your spread trade, long Nikki and short descent, that paid off in spades. Well done there. Freeberg, you had MBS and Saudi have the most important year in their modern era.

Starting point is 00:10:36 Not actually pretty pressing as well. They seem to be. Yeah. I mean, if you look at, let me just post this, this was this journal article that came out in March. If you guys remember this, when Saudi was considering accepting you on instead of dollars for sales of oil to China, and then in August, the US ramped up pressure

Starting point is 00:10:52 on Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars, not you on. Let me just pull this up for you guys, which was obviously the follow on story where the US tried to counter the actions, which is continuing obviously today, where there's a back and forth in Saudi, as I mentioned last week, I think is in this really interesting central pivot position

Starting point is 00:11:12 between all of these competing major nuclear powers and fighting for influence. And this is a big story, and it will continue to be this year. And modernizing, so Sunday. That photo of the fist bump, I mean, what a mistake that was where Biden just gratuitously insulted MBS, compare that to the photo of Putin visiting the Middle East and meeting shaking hands with MBS, which happened

Starting point is 00:11:37 just a few weeks ago. And compare the welcome that Putin got in Saudi Arabia, and I think UAE to the welcome that Biden got. It's just two completely different levels. It was a very warm embrace on both sides. I think it was UAE. They literally had a parade for him where they had the colors of the Russian flag up everywhere. So we've tried to portray Putin as this global pariah. We've tried to turn him into his global pariah,

Starting point is 00:12:06 but it's not working because of the way that he is defeating the collective West in Ukraine. I think that it's given him enormous cachet and influence in the global South and much of the developing world, which would like to stand up to American dominance, or at least is tired of American dominance. And if you double click on that article, the second one I sent on Washington

Starting point is 00:12:33 trying to negotiate with the Saudis, quote, behind the scenes, but obviously this all comes out. They're asking assurances that Riyadh will use dollars not you on to price oil sales, assurances that Saudi won't allow China to build military bases in the kingdom and limitations on Saudi Arabia using technology developed by China. And in exchange, the US will protect Saudi will provide military protection and will help them develop a nuclear program, which is an incredible demand. So obviously, this is an unresolved point, but this becomes a pivot moment for Saudi Arabia.

Starting point is 00:13:06 They may be coming nuclear power, use this as leverage, as the US continues to try and keep dollar a Germany alive. And my prediction last year was that Trump would get indicted, win the nomination, and then agree not to run an order to get a party or something in that vein. And it looks like I'm going to get two of those three correct. We'll see on the pardon. He has been indicted obviously. And he is looks like a lock to win the nomination. But we'll see. I don't it seems like Nikki

Starting point is 00:13:35 Haley's doing okay. We'll see. Biggest political loser of 2024 is what we're going to do next. Jamoth last year you picked DeSantis. I picked DeSantis. That was a pretty easy one. Sacially picked California. Also a pretty easy one. We know that California's gotten demolished. Because specifically California went from having a $76 billion surplus in 2022 to a $68 billion deficit now. Yeah, it's bonkers.

Starting point is 00:14:00 Yeah. I don't think any of those were as obvious as they were in January of last year. I think DeSantis was leading. He was collecting a lot of big checks. And California hadn't imploded. And everybody knew that they were on B under pressure, but nobody expected to be, I think, this swift.

Starting point is 00:14:14 So I don't think those were obvious. I think those were actually pretty decent books. Okay. Yeah, that's a good argument. And then, Freiburg, you picked debt issues for emerging nations, debt markets, start to unravel IMF steps in. I'm not sure I have enough information to check in on that one yet. Any thoughts, Freiburg? We're going to our predictions for biggest loser. I don't think we had any big unwindings like I had expected, but these problems are bubbling and persist. Obviously,

Starting point is 00:14:39 Argentina took a big step with the election there. That one was one of the countries that was most at risk of having a big event last year. But, Chema, who is your prediction for biggest political loser in 2024? The Cokes. I think on a dollar basis, they are the largest spender in Republican politics they have been and they have been the most consistent

Starting point is 00:15:01 negative indicator of value. And so if you just want to fade a trade, I think you can pretty easily just find where the, those old school Republicans are putting their money and just kind of short it. And right now, as much as I was sort of long the Haley spread trade in 2023, I would probably now short that trade in 24.

Starting point is 00:15:24 Okay, switching it up. short that trade in 24. Okay, switching it up mostly because of the cooks. Freeberg, what do you got? Well, saxo like this one, but I think Ukraine might be the biggest loser this year as attention shifts to the brewing conflict in the Middle East during an election year, like the US is facing, continuing this funding of this Ukraine Russia conflict with US dollars is becoming a more unpopular issue for people to support. And so I think because of all these competing interests and the political pressure, the US will probably not have the resources to commit to Ukraine.

Starting point is 00:16:01 I think Ukraine's shot at being in NATO is going to fade away. And unfortunately, it seems like the country may be left behind by the end of this year. Sax, what do you got? Well, I totally agree with that. And I would just add demographic decline or even collapse. They've lost something like half a million soldiers in terms of casualties. They also, something like 10 million people have fled the country. I read recently that there's only about 20 million people left in the country and half of them are pensioners. So it's

Starting point is 00:16:30 I'm in clear that the working population in the country is going to be able to support the pensioners. And of course, the war isn't close to being over yet. So there's going to be even more destruction that happens. So I agree with that, that pick. I upleveled my answer a little bit here to have the collective west as the biggest political loser. And Ukraine is a big part of that. Obviously, this huge bet that the collective west made in terms of pressuring and challenging Putin in Ukraine has completely crapped out. But I would also go much further than that.

Starting point is 00:17:04 You look at what's happening in Israel and Gaza right now, and I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is going well at all. And again, just stepping back, these answers don't reflect my desire for what I want to have happened. It just reflects my honest assessment of who the losers are going to be. And I just think that Israel's invasion is not going well. It does not look like they're going to be able to militarily achieve their objective of destroying Hamas, Admiral Kirby, who's the Pentagon spokesperson even said

Starting point is 00:17:39 that the other day, which was a pretty amazing admission. At the same time, Israel is creating a huge humanitarian crisis in Gaza, something like over 20,000 Palestinians have already been killed, over 50,000 wounded, something like 1.8 million of them have been displaced. And it doesn't look like it's going to let up anytime soon. As a result of this, Israel is facing, I think, a huge amount of condemnation internationally. It is becoming a bit of a global pariah. So that is not going well for America and the West.

Starting point is 00:18:14 And then you're going to have a whole bunch of elections this year, both in the U.S. and in Europe. I think that there's going to be tremendous disruption. Things are really not going well in Europe right now. Large parts of Europe are in recession as a result of losing cheap Russian gas. This is particularly true of Germany. And I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the European Parliament. And I wouldn't be surprised if there was similar shakeups in the European Parliament. And I wouldn't be surprised if there was some more shakeups in the US election as well. All right. And I picked for my biggest political loser. I was going to go with the American

Starting point is 00:18:51 voter, but I'm hoping that the American voters make better choices. And maybe we see some alternative candidates as we said in the last one. And I went with Netanyahu here. I think and again, this is just my assessment. This isn't what I want to occur in the world, obviously. But every major Israeli poll is just suggesting that they want him out and they put the odds of vox puts the odds of his ouster at 75%. And obviously, yeah, Gaza is not going well and it feels like there is a massive shift in terms of what was early support and obvious support for the tarotacks that occurred on 10-7 and any reasonable person would be supportive of that to, hey, maybe what's happening in Gaza is

Starting point is 00:19:32 not helping the situation and needs to be resolved and maybe a different approach has to occur. And so I think Netanyahu is going to be the biggest loser in 2024. All right, let's go on to the biggest business winner of 2024 back to business last year, last year in 2023, I predicted late off tech workers starting startup companies Would be the big winner. Tremop you predicted relativity space 3D printing rocket company and sax you picked America's natural gas industry Freeberg opening eye. Wow a lot of good choices there. I think opening eye was a huge winner in 2023. Yeah, freeberg. Even with the cash. So I would say so. That's a good

Starting point is 00:20:12 pick. Massive revenue. The highest market cap can of the year probably. Yeah, 3290 billion. Yeah. American natural gas industry. That really actually cooked in a 2023. Yeah, sucks. Yeah, it has new records. Good predictions. Good pick. Yeah, good pick. All right. So let's go right to 2024 predictions. Freeberg, you haven't let us off yet. So you're going to lead up, be the lead off batter here. What do you got? I'm going with commodities businesses, which I know isn't speaking a specific business, but there's a lot of ways

Starting point is 00:20:41 to play it. And I think there's a big commodities boom that's coming back in 2024. There's's a lot of ways to play it. I think there's a big commodities boom that's coming back in 2024. There's been a lot of under-investment relative to demand over the past, call it 18 to 24 months, coming out of COVID and with rising interest rates, a lot of folks have been selling down inventory and there now needs to be a build back up on inventory and supply. There's also a bunch of cash coming into the commodities markets that were sitting in treasuries as yields go down and that cash is coming back. So building the base backup, rebuilding stockpiles and supplies

Starting point is 00:21:16 coming out of the past 18 months, obviously economic activity is strong and robust. So commodities businesses are going to see a killer 2024. Tomapuri, I think the biggest business winner in 2024 is going to be the bootstrap start-up and or the profitable start-up. But the best will probably be the bootstrap profitable start-up. start up. And I think the reason is that we are underestimating how cheap it's going to be to copy an existing business in 2024. And so if you assume that these models are going to get 10 and 100 times better and you assume the cost of compute is going to get 10 and 100 times cheaper and you assume the cost of compute is gonna get 10 and 100 times cheaper, and you assume the cost of energy

Starting point is 00:22:06 is gonna get 10 times cheaper. You're no longer measuring in decades when a company will be subject to disruption. I think you're measuring it in frankly months. And so I think you're gonna be able to create these companies for very cheap and essentially have them attack an existing business which has upside on economics because they have just a lot of people and a lot of processes that these GPs can replicate for essentially free.

Starting point is 00:22:35 So if you are profitable, you have the chance to survive and I think if you are unprofitable I think that you're going to be under a lot of pressure. I think it's a great pick. That's exactly what I'm seeing on the field in the early stage. Sachs, who's your prediction for a biggest business winner of 2024? Who do you predict? Who's going to be the biggest business winner? I'm predicting Andrew for its road runner product, which it announced last year.

Starting point is 00:23:00 This is a drone interceptor. So it basically intercepts drones. And this is a drone interceptor. So it basically intercepts drones. It's built for ground-based air defense. And the reason I say this is because if you saw recently what was happening in the Red Sea with the Houthis, the US was having to use $2 million air defense missiles to shoot down $2,000 drones.

Starting point is 00:23:22 And that is not sustainable. So right now, we have a huge problem with asymmetric warfare, where our adversaries are using very cheap missiles, very cheap drones, swarms of them, and they force us to exhaust our air defenses, which are just way too expensive on a unit basis. And these costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, do you think? Yeah, I think that's right. I think the roadrunner these costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, do you think? Yeah, I think that's right. I think the roadrunner system costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, but it can be, it's reusable.

Starting point is 00:23:50 So it's not like you just send one up to take out one truck. If it doesn't blow up, if it does blow up, I don't think you reuse it. It basically takes off at loiterers. This is basically a AI system where it's self-driving, I guess you will, it has operators, but then it returns back to its base station after it's used.

Starting point is 00:24:09 It's not like a kamikaze-type drone, it's actually a drone killer. Oh, really, I think it is. I think it do dual purpose. It can either intercept and blow something up or it can return back to base, but we'll have to check in on that day and shout out to our friend,

Starting point is 00:24:21 Palmer, Lucky, come back on the program and it's up to us. We miss you. Shout out to our boy. Are you an investor, Saks? In Andrew? No, I'm not, I'm not an investor, but I think I would be. Yeah. You know, so they've all the time.

Starting point is 00:24:33 I'm on a, you know, Palmer. Great job. Yeah. No, Palmer will all by actually I'm building a position right now. I've been buying secondary in Andrew. And for me, I was going to go. It started up. We're really buying secondary shares in Android.

Starting point is 00:24:46 I've been building a large position in Android. Yes, I'm trying to get to a 2% ownership position so I can join the board. So I've been using so shout out to my guy, Mom, we're lucky. I am going to go with for my biggest winner in 2024. Training data owners like the New York Times,, X Twitter, YouTube, et cetera. I think what we learned in 2023 was that the language models are starting to hit parity very quickly and that the real value is going to be in,

Starting point is 00:25:16 and it may have become commodities and open source may win the day. So then I think the winner is folks who have the training data. And I'm actually proposing a new business model for these language models. I think now that we've seen this New York Times and OpenAI lawsuit, I think there's a really great outcome here,

Starting point is 00:25:34 which is a market-based solution where if you have a chat GPT account, you can log in and federate with your New York Times subscription or any other subscription. And then it gives you the tier of chat GPT-4 with the New York Times. And so that could be a win-win for everybody or they could obviously pay a licensing fee.

Starting point is 00:25:54 And so I think this is gonna be an amazing turnaround for the entire content industry if the language models respect copyright owners and come up with a sustainable system where every year copyright holders can get some money in exchange for using their training data, whether it's on images or content. So I'm taking a poll on the cumulative 2% position in OpenAI through secondary purchases and get them to do that on the board.

Starting point is 00:26:19 It's only two billion, yeah. No, I think, I mean, we didn't bring this up because it broke over the holiday break. But I think Sam Altman is doing a great job of telling people he wants to do the right thing. And we discussed previously the licensing deal they did with business insider and the parent company of it. Axel Springer, what do you think the deal with New York Times will look like? I think it's going to be a nine-figure settlement for previous stuff. And then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times in their training data. And then you'll be able to say, hey, what is the New York Times think of this?

Starting point is 00:26:51 You could actually do queries about the New York Times in it. And I think the New York Times will come up with a license that everybody can use their data if they pay this yearly fee. If you stop paying the yearly fee, then you can't train on it. And we're in uncharted territory. You're saying there's going to be a New York Times model and a non-New York Times model? Well, I think you could do two different things. One, you could do, New York Times could make their own model, right? But they could fork their model or just do the user interface. Say, if you want to query New York Times information and have that as part of your results, you have to have a New York Times account, right?

Starting point is 00:27:25 So if you say I want the best coffee machines or what's the best coffee equipment, it says, oh, if you had wire cutter and the subscription to New York Times, we would include the wire cutter results. And this idea that technologists can't do citations has been proven absolutely incorrect. There are language models out there that are using citations all the time. Opening an eye, I think, will wind up losing the case if it goes to the man. I think they're gonna pay a big licensing fee to your question, Tramon.

Starting point is 00:27:50 My prediction then is that if this happens, this is not my pick, but I'm just gonna tell you. I suspect that what happens is you'll get these yearly licensing fees and then one year, the New York Times just falls off a cliff. And when it comes time to renegotiate, then open a eyes as no. And they won't have a choice. Well, I mean, that's possibility. But if you think about the Disney characters,

Starting point is 00:28:14 let's, I don't know if you're saying Nintendo and Disney characters, making stuff on Dolly or other things, if you make derivative works on that and you want to have that feature as part of your image creator, you just have to have a licensing fee. And so I think that there's a win-win here to be had. And I'm really interested to see the market-based solution because I don't think this is a Napster situation where like OpenAid gets shut down because OpenAid is too savvy. I bet you're the fourth. The big difference between Napster and this is there.

Starting point is 00:28:39 The content universe was limited and small. Here is infinite and unlimited. And so how do you pay anything to anybody without, I just think it's like without direct attribution of revenue, which is basically impossible, you're kind of making a value judgment which I don't think makes any sense. I think doing a revenue licensing deal

Starting point is 00:28:59 is impossible when you get into the weeds. When these business people sit down and actually start to try to figure out the bid ask, I don't know as a rational coherent business person, what you would model in order to present a number. Yeah, so one suggestion would be what percentage of the model's creation was using the New York Times data

Starting point is 00:29:19 and I think people say one to two percent of the original chat GPT was built off of a trading data was New York Times. And then if they waited that heavily to them off, like let's say they said, New York Times is an authoritatively five times more important than these other sources. That could be upwards of five to 10 percent of the authority of that model. Yeah, but I just said it's not easy, but what's the cause? Yeah, but what's the cause for the like are you telling me that like an easy industry has this?

Starting point is 00:29:44 The music is going to be like a 30, 40 percent's the cause for the like are you telling me that like an easy industry has this The music is gonna be like a 30 40% cause the goods you could say that Chat GBT where let's say Apple I predict Apple will do this right? They'll do a language model where they say 50% of the revenue that we generate from query For subscription to this goes to the people we built it off of or the licensees. Sure, why not? Why not? They're already, the music industry already does that. That would guarantee the death of the startup ecosystem, and it would guarantee the lock-in of Big Tech. No, I don't think so. You could build models that don't have the data

Starting point is 00:30:15 and you could build models with it. So it'll be a choice by the person who builds the model. And synthetic data might make it so you don't need the New York Times, Shemoff. It's early days for synthetic data. No, I don't have an opinion. I'm just reacting to this idea that 50% of COGS, then all of a sudden, these aren't software companies.

Starting point is 00:30:30 You know, these software companies will have a gross margin of like 30%. Yeah. Well, what a Spotify pay for music, you know. So the same argument is made for Spotify, you know, or Netflix when they realize it's in London. That's the difference. It's limited in scope. Meaning there's only ever one hit song from Rihanna that matters. Or J. Z. Or whomever picked Taylor Swift. And so it's a very scoped

Starting point is 00:30:50 content universe. And so you can ascribe value much easier because then the user goes and actually listens to that song over another. This is about something that's happening under the waterline where you don't know how the iceberg is both. There are things under the model that do it. And Then there's also quoting stuff. That's really within New York Times got there and caught them with their hand in the cookie jar. That when it was regurgitating, information and giving the results, it was quoting deeply New York Times proprietary content.

Starting point is 00:31:17 That's where you're right about the training data, but you might be wrong about the output. That could be fixed. They could train models. They could exclude storing any proprietary data. You can create a filter that says the model can't store any of this data, but it can still be trained out. Or, can't use it, right?

Starting point is 00:31:35 So if you say, what's the best coffee machine, it can't use the New York Times wire cut of data. And I bet you that Sam Altman has already built a model without it. I guarantee you they've already built a, for an emergent press here in case of emergency. Here's the 4.5 model in case they got an injunction, which would be highly unlikely, but if they did get an injunction,

Starting point is 00:31:53 they just say, okay, here's 4.5, it doesn't use the New York Times training data. So this is all uncharted territory, as we all know. I think we got everybody's business predictions, okay? Andro, commodities, training data, and bootstrapped profitable startups, what a great cohort there. Let's go on to biggest business losers in 2024. 2023, Chimaltz said Google search as measured by profitability engagement.

Starting point is 00:32:17 SAC said the consumer, Freeberg said capital intensive series BCs and D-growth companies. That's pretty, pretty good winner there. Freeberg said capital intensive series BCs and D growth companies. That's pretty, pretty good winner there. And I said white collar workers without hard skills, also known as surplus elites. Any feedback on those boys? As your winner, I'll give you my prediction for 24. Please, yes. Go ahead.

Starting point is 00:32:40 Vertical SaaS companies, I think are going to get smacked this year. And I mentioned this, I think we talked about this off the show, or if we talked about on the show, I apologize. But like, I think these tools to write code, no code tools, copilating tools, and the ability for engineers to get 20, 50, 100X more productive to build custom applications for their enterprise are so incredibly powerful. I mentioned this to you guys, I know of a couple of vertical SaaS businesses that some of my companies use the software

Starting point is 00:33:15 and they're getting off the software because they've built homegrown solutions in a very low cost, very low touch way. And I'm seeing that so frequently now, I think this is a real threat to vertical SaaS businesses that can charge thousands of dollars per seat per year that are getting disrupted by the ability for companies now to very cheaply and quickly build homegrown solutions. You're giving a lot of the generative tools that are out there.

Starting point is 00:33:38 SACs, your prediction. My prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is actually the German economy. There's two big problems there. First is that the loss of cheap Russian gas has really cut the legs out from under the German industrial model. Their entire economy is based on industrial output and cheap Russian gas was sort of at the foundation of that. As you guys know, someone blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. I think that has really hurt the German economy. And then second, the German car industry has been massively impacted by a

Starting point is 00:34:14 sudden glut of cheap cars coming from China. So if you look at the Chinese automotive industry, it's really exploded in the last few years. And AutoExports is one of the biggest products at Germany manufacturers, and with German costs going up, and Chinese costs coming down, that's just not a very good place for them to be. So, I think double whammy for Germany. Shema, do you have the biggest business loser in 2024? I am going to say that 24 is the peak in terms of valuations of professional sports. Oh, and I will give you four examples in 2023 that I think were in some very concerning or pro sports franchise values as of today.

Starting point is 00:35:07 The first was you had an upstart competitor to a league that came out of nowhere, used money to overcome the ability to attract stars, I'm talking about the live tour versus the PGA, and then essentially force the PGA into merger talks with them. The second was you had a country use their balance sheet to basically try to jumpstart their own professional sports business. In this case, it was soccer. The country was Saudi Arabia,

Starting point is 00:35:39 and the players were Ronaldo and Messi. They got one, but not the other. The third was the explosion of NIL inside the NCAA. You have people in college now making more in some cases than the same player in a professional sports context. So they're making millions of dollars to be in college. And then the fourth, which may not seem like it's related, but there was an article in the Wall Street Journal, I think recently, about a meaningful uptick in churn amongst all the streamers, Netflix, Hulu, all of these companies, Amazon, Kua, the only folks within a position to actually have the balance sheet to keep paying a premium for professional sports rights.

Starting point is 00:36:22 So I think when you put that all together, you can start to see that there's been a tipping point in enterprise values. The acceleration we've seen over the last decade has slowed down. So I would say that 2024 is gonna be the year of peak pro sports values. Okay, starts to come down. And I went with smartphones. Smartphone manufacturers

Starting point is 00:36:46 are facing a major slowdown. Consumers obviously love their phones and use them constantly. But people are skipping a generation of phones. And if you look at Apple's revenue, they're having a very hard time getting people to upgrade. And so I think that's going to flatten out. They will keep trying to squeeze money out of it. I don't know what you guys spent on your iPhone 15 if you got it. but I always buy the top of the line and I think it was $14 or $1500 this time. And when I got the accountants, they said, oh, it's just a new laptop.

Starting point is 00:37:13 It's a new phone, but I think this is gonna slow down and people will during austerity. They're gonna skip two or three versions of it. I know I skipped for the first time. I skipped the 14 this time around. So I'm going with smartphone manufacturers and Apple would be obviously the tip of that spear. Let's keep moving our next prediction.

Starting point is 00:37:31 Biggest business deal of 2024. Biggest business deal of 2024. I went with last year, my prediction was Amazon getting into healthcare. Maybe they buy Peloton or Roman Hems and they have been getting into healthcare a bunch more. My wild car was a CCP divesting a TikTok. That didn't happen.

Starting point is 00:37:50 Tomat, you went, Starlink goes public in a spin-off from SpaceX at 75 billion. That didn't happen, but Starlink is doing fantastic. Sacks, you said a deal between Putin and Xi, and then Freeberg, you said Petro for Juan Trade, the Saudi China trade, any thoughts on the predictions there? Doesn't look like anybody nailed it. Well, no, actually Putin and Xi did make a deal. Their ties have never been stronger in the trade between those two countries. Keeps increasing as a result of the fact that we pushed Russia into China's arms, so that absolutely happened.

Starting point is 00:38:22 And what's your prediction in the shares year, Zach? Biggest business deal. Zach, what do you got? My biggest business deal is whatever the Fed decides to do to replace or extend BTFP, the bank term funding program. Remember that the BTFP, which is what the Fed used to bail out the regional banking system last year and was like March or April, it was only supposed to last for one year. It's supposed to be a temporary program, but I do not think that the balance sheets of

Starting point is 00:38:50 regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program. So I think the Fed's going to have to do something, tie the replace the program, extend the program, they're going to have to do something. And I think that regional banks are still in pretty bad shape with impaired commercial debt portfolios. And they need this liquidity as long as the yield curve remains inverted. So I think the Fed is going to try and somehow figure out a program to keep these guys liquid until they can de-invert

Starting point is 00:39:30 the yield curve. And I think the Fed's trying to massage all of this into place without there being a recession. It seems like they'll be able to do it. Jamat, what are you on? I'm going to go with the same thing. I think I was just off by your sterling, good, good, public. Fascinating. Fascinating. I like it. And I had a similar theme, my wild card, my wild card last year that the

Starting point is 00:39:53 CCP would divest a TikTok. I'm going to say this year that I think TikTok goes public and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with by dance, taking going public or TikTok, spinning out and going public some some version of that. Freeberg, what are you got for this year? We got some continuation bets here from J. Calons. Yeah, I would go in with my petro you on trade bet.

Starting point is 00:40:17 I don't think that the US is going to let Saudi become a nuclear power. But so maybe leave that one outstanding. But I think right's holder is getting licensing deals for generative AI or there's going to be a couple of blockbuster deals this year. Great. Where you'll see like Disney license out of chunk of their library so people can generate on-demand video games or content or I don't know. You guys remember this company in the early 2000s called Zazzle? Do you remember that company?

Starting point is 00:40:44 Yeah, I think it was printed stuff on Mugs. Yeah, and they had a big deal with Disney where the idea was you could put any character in any way you want on any piece of like T-shirt or mug or whatever. Merch. And it was like merch and it was a big deal. I think we see that again with Generative AI this year

Starting point is 00:41:02 where you can take, for example, a character from a movie and generate them in an image. So anyone that has interesting content rights will start to license it out and get a lot of value from it. Absolutely. Because there are a couple of big deals like that this year. Okay. Most contrarian belief of 2024, I went American exceptionalism source. I think I like that prediction from last year I had.

Starting point is 00:41:24 Chimap, you said inflation doesn't fall off a cliff as fast as people want. Saks says the bromance between Biden and Zelensky comes to an end. Freeberg, you said 2023 marks the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. I nailed that one. It didn't fall off a cliff? It didn't. What was inflation in the first quarter of 2023? Just get it, get fell off a cliff.

Starting point is 00:41:49 Oh, I'm like, wait a second. It's like what the f*** you talking about. Yeah, I'm sorry, you confusing me. I'm like, really? I wait a second. I think you get the Jim Kramer or the Professor Galloway moment for that prediction. Yeah, I think you might have missed that one by a bit.

Starting point is 00:42:08 All right, what do you got, Chema for this year? What do you got? Most contrary and relief of 2024? I think the enterprise value of OpenAI goes down. Okay. I don't think it has anything to do with OpenAI. I think it has everything to do with the rest of the industry. I think I think there's a couple of factors that play similar to what I just said earlier, but if you actually try to use these tools which now I have been in my sort of day job as CEO, I've been trying to build models, Sonny's been helping me, my takeaway are two things. Number one is the latency right now, amongst all these AI tools, makes building production quality code absolutely

Starting point is 00:42:46 impossible. So you can't have APIs where you take 30, 40, 50 seconds in between a request to get data back. That's ridiculous. These things to be non-starter. 50, 30, 40, 70 milliseconds. Second is the actual cost of a million tokens on any of these platforms is economically untenable if you're trying to build something.

Starting point is 00:43:12 So whether it's Amazon, whether it's together AI, whether it's open AI, it's extremely, extremely expensive. So I think that capitalism would tell you that if these two things are true, you should expect people to arbitrage that opening. And so if you see cloud services come out that allow you to basically get millisecond latency batch size one on the one hand, and second, where you have pricing for a million tokens that sort of 10, 20 cents, those folks, and they'll need to build their own custom hardware to do it.

Starting point is 00:43:55 But those folks will multiply the capability of this market by a thousand X. And I think when that happens, the open source models really proliferate, proprietary models and closed models go under pressure. And the existing economics of how you make money today will get reallocated to those different players. And I think in that, it's going to be very hard for existing folks. And I would say the same is probably true for Nvidia, the folks that have won up until today to maintain a multiple of market cap in this next year if that happens. And so my prediction is that will happen.

Starting point is 00:44:26 And as a result, the enterprise values of those companies, and I think opening out will be the most obvious, will go down. People buying secondary at 90 billion right now will be under one or next year. Although it's, again, they have to believe that the revenue composition today is sustainable. And if you look under the hood, half the revenue is consumers paying subscriptions. The other half the revenue or enterprises paying for essentially some version of AWS. Yes.

Starting point is 00:44:52 But the problem is that version of AWS is economically non-functional. It's unsustainable. It's way too expensive and it's way too slow. And by the way, that's just not an open AI problem. It's an entire industry problem. And so if this industry is really gonna be real, it needs to be literally dirt cheap

Starting point is 00:45:12 and as close to zero as possible. The minute that that happens, that revenue goes away. So then I just left in the subscription area for the first time. And by the way, the people that provide that will be the ones that have the hardware to enable that thousand X's of the cost, which is Azure AWS and Google Cloud.

Starting point is 00:45:27 No, no, no, I think these are startups that are building proprietary hardware. Oh, okay. Wow. So there's another prediction. Freeberg, what do you got? 2024 prediction, most contrary to belief. Okay. So I don't think we're past the conflict escalation stage.

Starting point is 00:45:40 I think things are only going to continue to mount. So a lot of the theater that we see on a global stage is more fundamentally driven by these big cycles that we're in. So I think a big one and a kind of tactical one, I think the big one that's contrary and is that there's an increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time in conflict. And I think that that's conditioned on the fact that there are declining military supplies, there's declining appetite and capacity to support traditional conflict, meat grinder type conflicts that we're seeing sprout up everywhere right now. And it worked not everywhere, but in a lot of places.

Starting point is 00:46:26 And you could see a moment where, as I mentioned in the past, someone gets backed into a corner and a tactical low yield nuclear weapon gets used. And I think that when you do that, it opens up the gates to hell. So it's a little scary, that's why we all joking aside. That's why you bought the radiations.

Starting point is 00:46:41 And by the way, I don't think this is a high probability. And I'm not joking, I don't think it is a high probability. And I'm not joking. I don't think it's a high probability. I think it's like, you know, call it one to two percent chance, something like this happens, but it's 10x where it was five years ago. And so that's why that- And the outcome of this is terrifying.

Starting point is 00:46:56 Yeah, it's such a significant event that it's definitely one to kind of be thoughtful about. And then the other one that I kind of said was tactical is I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO that a lot of what's going on Right now where Turkey is citing with Hamas. This has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time There's no real mechanism by the way for kicking a member out of NATO But I'll share with you guys. There's a lot of political commentary that Turkey cannot be a trusted ally

Starting point is 00:47:23 And obviously that now, you know Turkey is citing with folks who are actual threats to the West. The US incentive is you don't want to see Turkey with the biggest, one of the biggest armies in Europe run into Russia's arms. You're going to try to keep them in NATO, but there is a real risk that you start to see the first fracturing of NATO happen with Turkey being asked to leave or some negotiation on something that happens this year. So that's one that I keep an eye on that is certainly not top of anyone's mind, but it certainly begins to beg the question of the importance of NATO.

Starting point is 00:47:56 What do you got, Zach? You're most contrarian, believe. Can I first make a comment on last year's pick? Yes. It's okay. So last year I felt like I was going out on a limb predicting a rift in the bromance between Biden and Zelensky because that really seems so tight.

Starting point is 00:48:12 And with about four days left in the year, there was this article that came out in Politico that says the Biden administration is quietly shifting its strategy in Ukraine. The article basically says that the administration wants to go on the defensive and i think pretty clearly it wants a ceasefire enough frozen conflict it wants to get this

Starting point is 00:48:31 conflict sort of out of the way swept under the rug before the election season really cranks and i gear and the problem they have is that zalinsky does not want to negotiate a ceasefire with r that would involve Ukraine losing territory. So there is now a rift between maybe not Biden himself, but let's say Biden operatives, the Biden administration and what Zelensky wants.

Starting point is 00:48:56 And I think this will be a theme in 2024 is how do you reign in Zelensky after you've been telling the public for the last two years that our job is to support whatever Zelensky wants? And your prediction for this year? So my prediction for this year is that the soft landing gets very bumpy. I think that over the last two months of the year, I think markets got super optimistic. They started pricing in big-fed rate cuts. Let's call it one and a half percent. So we had this huge stock market rally in November, December. And I think there's generally a very strong belief

Starting point is 00:49:31 that the Fed will be able to pull off the soft landing. I'm not necessarily saying that there's going to be a recession. I just, I feel like I predicted 10 of the last two recessions. So I keep basically predicting recession when there's not one. But I do think that there's been too much too soon of this euphoria. I just think that this year is going to be a lot bumpier than that, both politically and economically. I think there's just a little bit too much euphoria and over optimism right now. I've attempted to go again with American exceptionalism.

Starting point is 00:50:05 I think I know that last year, America just had an amazing year in 2023 while Xi Jinping made unforced errors and getting rid of capitalism in his country. Nobody's starting companies there on stock market falling apart, real estate falling apart. And now he's coming back to America as we saw when he had a summit with Biden asking people, please come back and invest again, huge unforesterra, and I think Russia with the huge unforesterra losing hundreds of thousands of their citizens, their young people, to a senseless war for no reason,

Starting point is 00:50:34 and losing customers in the West like Germany, as you pointed out, SACs, I think American exceptionalism will continue to soar, but I don't wanna take the same prediction. So I also consider two other options, Apple making huge gains in generative AI and then streaming services, right sizing and becoming highly profitable and having a rebound between those two. I think I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI the end of the year.

Starting point is 00:51:03 Maybe they reboot Siri, but they're going to figure something out. And I think they're not going to remain on the sidelines when it comes to AI. So I'm going to go with Apple making huge gains in generative AI or AI in general, maybe a new Siri coming soon. Best performing asset of 2024 in 2023. I went with seed stage investing. I think I'll be proven right in five years, but that's kind of hard to prove in the short term,

Starting point is 00:51:27 Tremoth, you said cash and the front end of the yield curve, exactly what we short term T bills as well, and Freeberg, you went with semiconductor, capital equipment, oil gas services, farm infrastructure, anybody have thoughts on their predictions from last year? Cash was pretty good at 5%. No kidding, right?

Starting point is 00:51:44 It's good as it gets. This is not a lot of motivation to enter the markets anybody have thoughts on their predictions from last year? That was pretty good at 5%. No kidding, right? It's good as it gets. This is not a lot of motivation to enter the markets when you're earning 5, 5 and a half percent risk-free. Okay, so let's do our 24th, 24th equipment up 60%. Amazing. Good year. Freeberg?

Starting point is 00:51:58 Well, what do you got? What's your prediction for best performing asset of this coming year? Oh, I took the Uranium ETF. You are an easy money. Whether it plays out in the next 12 months or over time, I'm not sure it's gifted in availability. A lot of folks have this bet on this trade on. It's kind of an advantage. We have to see. It's an index on a business that benefit for mining and producing nuclear power, whoop, mining Uranium producing nuclear power, China is building up

Starting point is 00:52:27 415 nuclear power stations as we talked about. There's a lot of ESG driven demand and a lot of conflict driven demand, big shift underway, a lot of deregulatory effort underway globally to try to get nuclear back on track, nuclear power back on track. So these companies are going to benefit from this big macro cycle. So it's a, and this is an existing ETF where you're saying you, you, you roll one. No, it's called you, you're any, but you're any, you're any tracking ETF, you are a, is the ticker. I like that a lot. And sent to me. I do a lot of esoteric general statements. This one, I thought I'd go a little specific.

Starting point is 00:53:01 I like it. I mean, it's, it prediction. And sentiment has certainly changed here in the US for where it has been on, right? So since I'll just tell you guys, it bottomed out in March of this year at 19 bucks, it's up 50% since then. And in the last five years, it's up to X. But plenty of room to run if you look at the underlying assets that the ETF tracks.

Starting point is 00:53:25 Tomah, what do you got? Best performing asset of 2024. What's your prediction? I have to do it with the worst performing asset of 2024 because it's a bit of a spread trade. So I'm going to take the public software index, tech stock index, and my short is going to be the private tech software companies, the late stage, mostly SaaS companies. And I think we've all talked about the reasons why, but I think that the terminal valuations are getting reset in the public markets. I don't think the growth rates are there in the private companies. And so you're going to have a reset on valuation. In many cases, that reset may just be that they stay at the same valuation three years later, even after doubling revenue, or more, the problem is you will have taken

Starting point is 00:54:12 another 30% delusion between now and then, because of all the stock-based comp that these private companies give out. So long, the public tech cycle short the private late-stage tech cycle, expecting a valuation contraction in the latter. What do you think, Zach? What do you think is going to be the best performing asset of 2024? Well, I'm really not sure about this. So I would urge nobody to actually trade on this, but it is not investment advice.

Starting point is 00:54:39 It would be clear. None of this is investment advice. Yeah, I'm not trading on this on these predictions. So you shouldn't either. My guess here, just a guess, is energy stocks, energy prices, could be among the top performers of 2024, just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating. So I agree with Freeberg that there are huge risks

Starting point is 00:55:04 of escalation in the Middle East, the Ukraine war is still going on. I think not enough attention is being paid to what's happening between Venezuela and Guyana. Venezuela is basically attempting to annex Guyana's offshore oil reserves, which are huge. This is basically just pure theft. Ethiopia also has tense relationships with a few of its neighbors, and I could easily see there being a war that breaks out between Ethiopia and Egypt or Ethiopia and through a trail. And then that could spill over and create further disruption in the Red Sea.

Starting point is 00:55:42 We also still have this unresolved issue of the hoodies. And of course, you have Neocons braying for war with Iran as they always do. John Bolden dispolish another piece saying that we had to go to war with Iran. So there's just so many ways that the conflict could escalate and create, I think, a spike in the price of oil. All right, I'd love to, in my heart of hearts,

Starting point is 00:56:04 I believe the best performing asset will still be seed stage startups. But I'm going to go with consumer comfort services, I think as austerity measures and this, whether we have a soft landing or a recession, it's clear the consumers have spent all their money. So they're going to go for small luxuries like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, small things to have great experiences. And I'm talking my book in two out of those three, which I own shares in. But I think consumers are going to keep treating themselves

Starting point is 00:56:36 to getting some DoorDash or getting an Airbnb and going to Japan or whatever it happens to be. So consumer conference services is my pick for the best performing asset of 2024. Worst performing asset. Let's go right on to worst performing asset. We're cooking with oil. Worst performing asset.

Starting point is 00:56:53 I will with energy, Tommapo and tech energy junk debt. Saxe went with office hours in San Francisco and Fribberg went with consumer credit. Wow, I think we nailed it in almost all those cases here. What do we got for 2024? Sax's actually got a 2024 prediction of worst performing asset. Again, this is not investing advice. Yeah. So I'm not going to trade on this. So just take it with a grain of salt. But I would bet against the magnificent seven just because I believe that

Starting point is 00:57:21 what goes up must come down and the hotter they are the harder they fall. I'm not saying That the magnificent seven are actually gonna go down. I'm just saying that the S&P 493 are gonna catch up a little bit So I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over the magnificent seven because again, I just think that there's got to be some catching up here. And the huge gains made by the Mignificent 7 were really based on story, you know, based on AI. And I don't see why those gains should be limited to the Mignificent 7 if AI is going to place a big role in the economy. Chama.

Starting point is 00:58:09 I too when you predicted earlier about opening I losing some value. My worst performing asset in 2024 is LLM startups. I believe they've been massively overvalued and I believe open source is making an incredible run at them. And I think they're going to hit parity and there's too many players. This is like having 15 search engines or 20 Amazon's. There's just too many players and there's too many players, this is like having 15 search engines or 20 Amazon's, there's just too many players and there's too much parity. The prices make no sense and I think they're all going to come down by 50, 60, 70, 80% in terms of their valuations. That won't get marked in their books, but that will be the reality of where their stocks will trade on the private markets.

Starting point is 00:58:40 Freeberg, which you're performing, yes, and worth performing. Just based on what I shared earlier, I would go short vertical SaaS, vertical software companies and long cloud providers that have AI tools and platforms that will allow enterprises to build custom applications in a low cost, low code way. And so you could obviously pick the companies that would go in that bucket,

Starting point is 00:59:06 go along those cloud bucket and go short the vertical bucket. Is there like a per seat price threshold that you think would kind of demarcate the companies that you think are a risk? In other words, like I invest in plenty of SaaS companies that sell seats at five,, $10 per month. I'm just like very skeptical.

Starting point is 00:59:26 They're not going to have that as worth and then it prizes while to recreate that software. No, and so I'll give you an example that there's a vertical software provider. We're paying five grand per seat per year right now. And we look at that and we're like, okay, it's basically a data management tool for our particular vertical.

Starting point is 00:59:50 Let's just go recreate that and did it very quickly, very low cost and we're gonna replace it. That's it. Cut that out. I don't wanna say that, but yeah. It's it. Is it? Yeah.

Starting point is 00:59:59 So it's like, you know, very specific, very expensive, but I mean, Zach, you could probably see the same thing happen in sales CRM type tools, very specific, very expensive. But I mean, you can probably see the same thing happen in sales CRM type tools that are obviously also very expensive. And how much is it data received? How much do you pay? Five grand. Five grand, five grand per year.

Starting point is 01:00:15 So that's basically like over $400 a seat per month. We have like 100 employees. So we're paying like 500 grand. And so one of our software engineers is like, this spins up a replacement for it. We're going to roll it out in Q1. Okay. So is there like a per see per month price that you think starts to where it doesn't work? Is it 50 bucks?

Starting point is 01:00:36 What is the number? I mean, I do the math, but yeah, it shouldn't be in the range that it's at for sure. But a lot of these guys waited. They had a monopoly and it wasn't worth the company's time to try and invest in software at the price point that they were charging. They found a market. Now the market has to compress. So I'm not saying that the companies go away,

Starting point is 01:00:52 but I do think pricing compression is gonna hurt these businesses a lot. If you could pay 50,000 for the same software instead of 500, you would not have spun it up yourself. So there is a reasonable number between those two. Correct. And that reasonable number might be 250 or something. Yeah. But here's the thing that we need to also factor in, which is that freeberg's companies,

Starting point is 01:01:10 that engineer, could also then just release that product for everybody else to use at 10 source. And everybody else will then use it because it'll be good enough. And that 80% solution company will take over the market. Yeah, that's my point. There's going to be price and compression. This is the thing, I think that people underestimate how deflationary this whole thing is.

Starting point is 01:01:30 It's like two out of three orders of magnitude more deflationary than people have any inkling of. Yeah, interestingly, I had Dave and Hanmar Hansen on this week in startups and they're releasing something called one.com where they're going to charge for software one time like we used to do. And their first product is a slack killer. And so the idea of paying per seat for slack,

Starting point is 01:01:51 what they're planning to do is just charge you, you know, at 95, no, you find a hosting company. So you'll host it. Okay, so it's cool. It's old school. It's old school on-prem software. On-prem and then you pay an upgrade fee when you upgrade the software basically.

Starting point is 01:02:07 I think they're gonna pay them like a maintenance percentage. That's why you got that. You know, in old school enterprise software, right? The pricing model was, the revenue model was always built at when you did a sale. You would make on average 20% of the revenue per year in Upgate fees. And so now, and then everything switched to SaaS, which

Starting point is 01:02:25 would just continue to support and support maintenance, all that kind of stuff. So it's never, they say it's one time, it's one time for the software, but if you want to stay up to date and get support and patches and all that kind of stuff. Yeah, and the old school enterprise software model was always like figure 20% of the install cost. Right. And by the way, this is one of the reasons why Oracle made so much money as they did a roll-up of all these old-school on-prem software companies

Starting point is 01:02:51 that weren't growing, but the maintenance fees were just rolling in forever. Yep. And they rolled all that stuff up. And they probably raised the fees. I mean, for me, when you have a 20-person company, 50-person company, the Slack fees don't seem like a big deal. But when you get to, when you're spending 500,000 or a million dollars a year on something

Starting point is 01:03:09 like Slack, then maybe you would consider other options. And I know people at large organizations that have done that because there's an open source competitor to it. So that does exist in the world. Okay. Now, but what freeberg is bringing up is like, why would you support 500,000 to a million dollar year opt-ex for software? I mean, can you really put a model together that shows that that's somehow

Starting point is 01:03:32 a creative to you, especially if you're a money-losing startup? It just doesn't make any logical sense. I understand that it happens. And the fact that that software, SaaS companies, have been able to make 80 to 90% margins and grow on that. It has created the best business model in history. But I think what may become apparent now is that the SaaS business model is really a temporary phenomenon that existed between ubiquity of the internet and the development of AI and low cost low-code tools for developing software.

Starting point is 01:04:01 Yeah, it was an arbitrage of the Dirt of Engineers. It was the gross margin that was correlated to the line. And now that the work that software engineers could have done has been automated into software itself, you are going to see a lot of that arbitrage. Say differently, Freeper. You could say like the number of engineers has now multiplied by a millionfold. That's right. And now everyone has them available. So then they can build margins. We're not going to be 90%. The gross margin is maybe 30%.

Starting point is 01:04:28 Right. And so, so everything gets competed away. And pricing goes down. Pricing gets compressed. And that's why this is a big macro trend for me. Like, and I'm just seeing it across every company, everyone's rethinking whether or not the BBC fees for all different types of software tools. By the way, the part of that, which is economically true, is if you look at every other category in the economy and you look at the gross margin profile of businesses that are not pure play tech. We have grown up and we've monetized this belief that tech companies not only can start at 80 to 90 percent but stay there in deficit. Stay there. Yeah, they should be at 40 percent.

Starting point is 01:05:03 Not even every other market can start off in the 50, 60, 70% when they're nascent, but capitalism competes away those margins. It keeps down to 30% to 40%. And a best in class business generates 20 to 25% EBITDA margins on a sustained basis. So if you believe that the average best run company is a 35% gross margin business

Starting point is 01:05:24 with 20 to 25% free cash flow margins. Text stocks have a long way to go down. Exactly, exactly. Software, software companies. Yeah, software companies. But if it's priced below the cost of you rebuilding it, then you're not, you're just, it's a buyer position. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, so Freebrook's company did that work, he doesn't even need to want to make a profit

Starting point is 01:05:48 from that software to just say, anybody else can use this. I have an auto GPT that will basically configure myself to you if you want to use it. And now that N-plus-first company who's starting up with two or three people can now raise an order of magnitude less money and we'll write the GPT that connects to his.

Starting point is 01:06:08 And now this is my point where like it's just a race to the bottom. Yeah. All right. Last year for our most anticipated trend, Chimoff and I both picked austerity. Feels like that came to fruition. Exactly. You're kidding, right? We did not see any austerity. We added like two trillion to fruition. Exactly. You're kidding, right? We did not see any austerity.

Starting point is 01:06:26 We added like two trillion to the debt. I was talking about 34 trillion. How are we talking about consumers and companies and individuals? Well, consumers didn't cut either. I mean, they kept spending and in fact, credit card debt is now at the highest level. It's ever been. So where's the austerity? I think it's happening right now where people are maxed out.

Starting point is 01:06:48 You're already starting to see it happen with travel and some of those areas. But yeah, we could be off by six months on this one. Satya said Trump's influence in the GOP wanes. That was definitely wrong. Yeah. That was visual thinking. Freeberg, Selgin, there. For what's for you?

Starting point is 01:07:04 Visual for you too. No, that's true. I mean, you don We're sure for you too. You know, that's true. I mean, I don't ever get you don't want him as your candidate. Well, I can explain that. I mean, at the end of 2022, we had that election that was supposed to be a red wave and it turned into a red puddle. Remember that? And it was a loser. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:07:18 It was a big loser for the GOP and a lot of the candidates, I'd say in particular, the candidates who had been endorsed and supported by Trump ended up losing and not doing very well. And then by contrast, it seemed like the one part of the country where the Republicans had done incredibly well was in Florida, where obviously the census went by like 20 points and added seats to their majority in the legislature. So it seemed like going into the year that DeSantis was kind of the heir apparent and Trump's influence would wane.

Starting point is 01:07:49 But like you said, that may have been wishful thinking as clearly not what's happened. But a big part of the reason why Trump's influence is greater than ever is because of all this law fair, all these indictments against him and this prosecution and persecution of him by Biden and his minions,

Starting point is 01:08:06 it's really, I think, galvanized the base to support Trump. Freeberg. Last year, you said Sel-Jean therapy becoming more mainstream. How did that one pan out your prediction? Most impistature trend. I don't know about mainstream, but we've seen more approvals this year. It's been good. I mean, steady pace of... I all the sickle cell product come out.

Starting point is 01:08:28 Sickle cell came to market. Yep. There's a few more that got approved. So in cell therapy, so it's great. And we're seeing good progress there. And I remember there's like over a thousand in clinical. So there's this title wave coming to market serum of cell and gene therapies. They're going to have a profound effect on a lot of disease condition.

Starting point is 01:08:45 So really exciting. Freda, you want to continue and tell us what you're most anticipated. Oh, so this year I'm really excited based on the progress we've seen in 2023 of predictive models, AI driven discovery of novel molecules, materials, and methods of production in biopharma, in chemical engineering, lots of new materials, new drugs that are actually coming out of software, not coming out of root force, wet lab, discovery processing. And then we're also seeing these really amazing, generative systems on production processes in chemistry that are going to unlock all of these

Starting point is 01:09:25 new products and grow up costs. Going back to the deflationary point, not only does this introduce new products into the world that are going to benefit humanity, but it reduces the cost of making them and reduces the footprint of making them. So there's a lot of great benefit coming from these predictive modeling tools

Starting point is 01:09:39 that starting to percolate its way into these industries. So I'm excited about seeing what comes to market this year. I'm sure we're going to have a science corner at some point this year that it says, look at this amazing new thing that was discovered in software and it works. That it's gonna be really cool. Okay. What do you got you Moth for your most anticipated trend of 2024?

Starting point is 01:09:57 What are your most anticipated Moth? I think this is the most important year for Bitcoin that has ever existed. Hmm. We are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved. And so this is the moment for Bitcoin to use that old term across the chasm and really seen mainstream adoption where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is, can buy it and then do buy it. And I think that if all of this comes to pass, Bitcoin will be a part of the traditional

Starting point is 01:10:36 financial lexicon by the end of 2024. So that is my most anticipated trend of you. What do you got, Saks, for your most anticipated trend of the year sex? Which got, SACs, for your most anticipated trend of the year SACs? Which of us has a pretty good one. I think there's a version of that same thing in AI. I mean, it's hard to know exactly what all the advancements are going to be in AI,

Starting point is 01:10:54 but when we look back on it in five or 10 years, it's going to be pretty clear that the exponential pace of advancement in AI continued. And so I can't say exactly what those breakthroughs are going to be this year, but they're certainly are going to be some. And I think we'll see those innovations continue to percolate down to more and more of the average sort of mainstream consumer. SACS, once again, you and I are Sympathico.

Starting point is 01:11:22 I picked my most anticipated trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form of AI advances and outsourcing. Basically, a lot of Americans don't want to work or they want to work from home or they want high salaries. We have record low unemployment. Thanks to Biden. I'm joking. But all of this is forcing people to build robots, AI, and software to route around, you know, and make things more efficient. And I think the number one trend I'm seeing from startups and they tend to adopt this stuff early is outsourcing to all other geographies around the world for work because it's so easy once you have a work from home, philosophy or paradigm at your company, while adding somebody from Portugal, Manila, Argentina, Canada is the same as adding somebody from outside of New York City or Silicon Valley or LA,

Starting point is 01:12:15 but you can do so at a third of the price for somebody maybe who really wants the work. And so I think efficiency is my most anticipated trend, but in the form of AI and outsourcing. Okay. Now, media, everybody loves we do our most anticipated media for 2024, for last year. I had Oppenheimer. Wow, that was great. Chimath, you had Dune Part 2. That was delayed. Sack, you also had Oppenheimer. What did you think of Oppenheimer, Sack? Did it deliver for you?

Starting point is 01:12:48 Have you seen it? I thought it was good, not great. It was very long. It kind of went on long. Yeah. It's not a movie. I need to see a second time. Let's put it that way.

Starting point is 01:12:57 Okay. And Freeberg, you said, generative AI-based media. For this year, I have to confess I have inside information. So my prediction is gonna be the winner. It turns out our favorite DJ is dropping a new album in 2024. And I got to release track. So my most anticipated media, I'll just play the the Unreleased track here.

Starting point is 01:13:22 What is this? According to NASA, there's a new look at Uranus Uranus Uranus I'm talking about mine Uranus Uranus is this young spielberg? This is young spielberg

Starting point is 01:13:41 Coming back to the summer jam of the year Uranus How was your pulling us? It's a Fanger Come on, actually, the summer jam of the year. You're in this. How was your holding on? It's a banger. Well, there it is. Talk about my end. It's coming at you. That was a banger.

Starting point is 01:13:54 Obviously likes the deep bass of my voice. It does like the deep bass of your voice in his head. Yes. So that's a banger. That's going to be, I think, the, that's going to, it's going to be the summer anthem. The new album from Youngspielbugdropping. That's going to be I think that that's going to carry this could be the summer anthem The new album from young spielbuck dropping. That's the lead title track your ain'ts coming at you I also am looking forward to gladiator two is coming out really Scott Lucius the nephew of common is a grown man. It's gonna be awesome

Starting point is 01:14:18 I hope and Netflix's three-body problem if you have one of the books are great And that's being done by the game of Thrones guys. That's gonna be awesome. That's gonna be awesome. And that's gonna be awesome. D and D. Anyway, three body problem, glad it's you for me. Once the books ran out, they were kind of, yeah,

Starting point is 01:14:37 they were kind of on their own there and the show kind of declined. It was a terrible last season. In this case, the three body problems is a complete series and it's mind-blowing in terms of its epicness. It's actually what you're most anticipated media of 2024. Is your Putin biography coming out? Is it Alex Jones' biography, 10-part series on Netflix? What are you looking forward to?

Starting point is 01:15:00 Well, I agree with you about Gladiator 2. We actually have some low-chase and movies. I'm also looking forward to House the dragon season two. Oh, yes, but one project I will give a little plug to is Jimmy Sony's book The Founders Which is the story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs who shape silk and all this of us that came on 2022 the reason I'm mentioning it is because I optioned this book along with Jack Selby, who's another PayPal Mafia alum who has a film company. We've optioned this and we have just made a deal with Drake's company called DreamCrew

Starting point is 01:15:34 to turn this into some sort of television series. Could be done as a docu- Wait, did you say Drake, the musician Drake? Yeah, he actually has a very successful production company called DreamCrew. They're the producers of Euphoria, which is this huge hit on HBO. Terrifying. So they've signed up, it is kind of a terrifying show.

Starting point is 01:15:53 You have kids, it's terrifying. Terrifying. Terrifying, quite. It's incredible show, but terrifying. And yeah, it is scary. Many of them, it's a big hit. So they've produced a lot of not just music, but television content. They're very interested in the story.

Starting point is 01:16:09 And so we're partnering with them to create a TV show. So hopefully that comes together this year. Are you in production this year on it? Or is it? No, it's going to development this year. Development, yeah. You get any deep credit sex? Yeah.

Starting point is 01:16:20 Oh, how much does the money on the rest of us get any deep credits? 50, 50 grand. Yeah. Is it a 50 grand or is it a 50 grand. Yeah, is it a 50 grander or a little this is this is this is gonna be an expensive one. Oh really? Well, who's your dream? Is it HBO is a dream or Netflix? Yeah, who folks be on Netflix? Ultimately a studio would make this right you would want HBO or Netflix. I take it those are the top two in terms of making high quality stuff. They'd be really good. Yeah, but there's not to be those two, but they'd be good. It could be Amazon Prime. I mean, there's a lot of these. And who are you hoping plays a young sack?

Starting point is 01:16:51 Who would play a young question? A good question. That's a good question. Who would play a young David Sacks? What's the name of the guy that's dating Zendaya? What's his name? Tom Holland. How about that? Tom Holland. The big. Peter Parker. Peter Parker? Yeah. How about that? Tom Holland, the big. Peter Parker. Peter Parker? Yeah.

Starting point is 01:17:08 How about, then we, Bobby Brown, for you, see? The only guy can play a young sex that it would be Ryan Dossett. Oh, you guys are really shooting the moon with this. Hmm. Tom Holland's interesting. Jake Health is the young internet right now. He's gonna give you a...

Starting point is 01:17:20 No, I'm looking. I'm looking on the internet for a young actor to play you sex. Well, well, let the audience come back to that. They let the audience decide who plays a young sex. Yeah. Chimathi, look at forage anything in media in 2024. Does he have anything for us to look out for? Jimmy Donaldson, Mr. Beast,

Starting point is 01:17:35 added 100 million subscribers on YouTube in 2023. More than two times the next largest channel. And if you watch his content, Mr. Beast Channel, it's incredible. And that has become event-based viewing now for hundreds of millions of people. So I am really excited to see what production value gets cranked out in 2024 from these guys,

Starting point is 01:18:01 but that's my most anticipated media is is Mr. Beast and Freebird. You have anything you look forward to in the media space in 2024. I mean, I put AI generated news, which I think has become like an interesting. Have you guys seen these where there's like a broadcaster that just tells you the news and they're like naked? I haven't seen that. No. That was the day. You're on the internet, right? Wasn't there like naked news or something? No,

Starting point is 01:18:29 that was like a mean from the news. That was like naked news where like these people would be like in the process of undressing as they like read the news. It was so stupid. Oh, really? They were really dumb, but it did capture people's imagination naked news. You could basically watch newscasters naked read the news. I do think you're going to see a lot of this real-time, generative video that's going to take as its input, news feeds, and develops some understanding, and then present it back to you in whatever visual format you want. So you'll have your own personal newscaster presenting you the stuff that's interesting

Starting point is 01:19:04 and be like, no, no, tell me less about them at least. Tell me more about Wall Street, tell me more about tech. And you can basically interact with it and curate your own personal news feed, whether that's through video or through text or through audio, you can have it presented to you anyway you want. So I'm really excited for the data that happens. So I don't have to doon scroll through Twitter all the time to get news. And I can have, you know a personally curated needs cast their to your point one of the things that One of the tasks that I had this year was the kind of like take a model and learn how to fine tune it and

Starting point is 01:19:34 Sunni and I we took Stable diffusion and there's a mod to it called juggernaut excel which basically Produces know the most beautiful people you've ever seen. Like under any boundary condition, it doesn't matter what prompt you give. Handsome. The people that it generates are the most stunningly, symmetrically beautiful people. And all it's going to take to your point is just just put this stuff together next year. And you'll have these people that capture your attention and can keep your attention. And they'll tell you the news or whatever.

Starting point is 01:20:05 And you can just say skip. You can say tell me more. You can say go back. You can say, hey, I want to hear more like double click on that story and interact with it. It's going to be incredible. I do think it's going to happen in 2024 where a series of products will come out that start to look like this and it'll get in a matter of time.

Starting point is 01:20:22 If that as they are telling the news, you can have another agent that's basically scoring it and telling you how biased it is. Yeah, by the way, I'll tell you a crazy story yesterday. After Jason, Jason took Natt and I out yesterday, we had an epic day. It was incredible. It was fun. Good times. I was totally gassed skiing. And so I took an app and I fell asleep for like 40 minutes and I woke up and I turned on the TV and I watched CNN for 20 minutes. Have you guys watched CNN? I can't watch more than a minute. It is so bad. It is for all network news. Yeah. Well, never. No, it's really bad, Jason.

Starting point is 01:20:58 Like, it's done by us. It is. And just how inaccurate it is. If you were to watch it for an hour a day, you would have this totally lopsided view of what's going on in the world that is completely not accurate. But here's my point, there's nobody fact checking CNN just like there's nobody really fact checking Fox News. But my thought is these models and these AI tools

Starting point is 01:21:17 should be the thing that presents objective news and then actually just tells the truth. I disagree. I think what will happen is people will bias the delivery to what they want to hear. And you'll end up having something that's going to become more of an echo chamber for you. I want to hear more about how X, Y, or ZD is so great.

Starting point is 01:21:33 I want to hear less about the stuff that I don't agree with. And you're going to curate your news to exactly what's happened with social media. So I don't know if that's necessarily how this will evolve. It's a lot because people don't like to hear what they don't believe or what they don't already know. I mean, they don't want to hear the truth. Yeah. They want to hear the truth that speaks to them.

Starting point is 01:21:49 They're a version of the truth. They want to be emotionally titillated, you know. It's about time I let you guys know that we ran an experiment right now. Chimoff and Freiburg, I did this with Saks's permission, but Saks's participation here today was actually his AI. This is an AI version of SACS that we programmed. AI SACS, can you reveal yourself and what training data went into this version of AI SACS?

Starting point is 01:22:11 Can you give us something about your training data? AI SACS, what training data was used? If this bit you wanna do, you're gonna have to give me more of a heads up. I mean, we saw it. No, I'm gonna be hilarious now. We actually trained like a sax model, and we had him come on and we tried to pull the audience.

Starting point is 01:22:28 Can we just do a quick round table if you guys were to summarize your, in one word or two words, your emotional condition for 2024, what would it be? Like how are you feeling going into 2024? Sex? Oh, I feel fine, but if I were to describe 24 in one word, I would say the year is gonna be turbulent. turbulent, but I feel, I feel fine, but if I were to describe 24 and one word, I would say the years can be turbulent.

Starting point is 01:22:46 Tribulant, but I feel I feel level, that's not me, but I feel like the world's going to be very turbulent. Jacob, kind of exhilarated, enthusiastic about 2024. It feels like a lot of the cleanup work, you know, that we had to do in 2023, 2022. Like I feel like a lot of that's we've worked through it. And I'm finding a lot of optimistic. So I guess I would be, you know, enthusiastic and optimistic about 2024. I'm really excited to go to work and create. I want to create some new things in 2024. I very creative creative. Yeah, they are creative. I would say cautious and pensive. I think that just a lot of stuff is changing underfoot and I'm personally not excited to make a bunch of decisions because I worry that those decisions will have to be remade or unmade, even nine or 10 months later.

Starting point is 01:23:45 So I'm just kind of like very... Pensive, I'm like, wow, a lot of stuff can change, will change, even just like, you know, and then Freeberg knows this, but like, you know, there's like some deals underfoot that like, I think for the industry as a whole are just really meaningful things. And so to do stuff right now,

Starting point is 01:24:07 Fieberg makes me very anxious. So, right, I'm really cautious and defensive. Right. Where are you at, Fieberg? I'm excited. I'm enjoying my new job as CEO at O'Holo. There's so much cool stuff happening. I'm personally excited about it.

Starting point is 01:24:21 So this is the most excited I've felt in many years in terms of my work. And then I would, and I'm really excited to share what we've done next year, which I'll, or earlier this year, which I'll do. I'll do it on the show first, obviously. And then looking outside of the world, I'm just a little cautious, I'm a little nervous. I think there's a, like, there's still a lot of tinderboxes out there. So, I mean, you guys know, I like, we joke about it, but I do think there's these like little mouth traps that can get set off and then they set up all the other mouth traps. So there's a couple of those things out there that I'm a little nervous about. But in the course of history, aren't there always conflicts in the world and like, do you try to like put them on a spectrum of like, there's always going to be conflict,

Starting point is 01:25:00 there's always going to be. There's never been this much debt in the world. And that's what makes me so nervous. Like, I think they're related. So actual conflict relates to the debt load, and that's why I'm so nervous, because we've never been, you can't keep your societal fabric together if you have a lot of debt and you can't grow your economy. Those are two, that's a simple fact. And so that leads naturally to finding points of conflict with other nations and other places. Because you look for conflict elsewhere.

Starting point is 01:25:30 There's a good chance that the Republicans will force some momentary temporary budget cuts in this next couple of weeks shut down. Yeah, a couple of weeks. 17, like two weeks away. Yeah. It's pretty interesting. Under the terms of the debt silly increase that they agree to last year. They're supposed to all agree on a new budget.

Starting point is 01:25:50 And if they don't, then there's a 1% cut across the board on discretionary spending that goes into effect. Right. If I were the Republicans, why agree to a deal? You're never going to do better than a 1% cut in discretionary spending spending if you care about austerity or just Having any kind of reason in our spending just take the 1% cut. Yeah. Yeah. Don't you agree to anything? I agree. That's the most likely tap right at this point. I hope so and you know a 1% cut cut is a rounding error But the Washington lease are gonna shrink like crazy over that. I mean, they're gonna yeah Sweele over this minuscule cut like we were slashing their budgets. But that's all we're cutting to do. Yeah, exactly.

Starting point is 01:26:31 They're cutting their fingernail and they're crying. So just click your toe. They're gonna act like we tough. They're arm-winted. They got like a fingernail clip. Yeah, it's nothing. All right, I got to run. All right, everybody. What an amazing 2023 we had. Here's to a great 2024 You got your prediction show and we'll be back with more news and a classic all-in episode next week have a great New year and we wish all the best in 2024. Love you boys back at your bad Bring man David We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. I'm going to the beach.

Starting point is 01:27:12 I'm going to the beach. What? What? What? Besties are gone. That's my dog taking a wish to drive away. Six. Oh man. Oh, go through that. That's my dog taking it away. She's driving away. She's excited. Oh, man.

Starting point is 01:27:27 My ham is the actual meat. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge or two. Because they're all just like this sexual tension that we just need to release that out. What, you're the beef? What, you're the beer of beef? Beef of beef? What?

Starting point is 01:27:43 We need to get my cheese on it now. I'm going, darling. Happy year of V. Beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep, beep,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more

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