All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - E3: Modern Cold War between US & China, economic recovery, potential mass migration out of San Francisco, pandemic politicization & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg

Episode Date: May 21, 2020

Follow @chamath: https://twitter.com/chamath Follow @jason: https://twitter.com/Jason https://linktr.ee/calacanis 0:01 Jason & Chamath intro David Sacks & David Friedberg 1:15 Everybody gives their quarantine update: Sacks is in Mexico while running Craft remote, Chamath got a new poker table & is excited for shelter-in-place to end, Friedberg is getting back into a rhythm 8:04 Chamath & Sacks reflect on the coming return to normalcy & politicization of the virus 12:41 Sacks on 3 major data-driven discoveries about the virus 15:54 Friedberg on fatality rate data, overestimating the lockdown's impact on stopping the virus 19:32 Getting back to work 21:05 Chamath on the stock market not reflecting the economy, Sacks on what an economic recovery might look like 28:00 Friedberg on potential of another NYC-level outbreak, Chamath on negative impact of left/right culture war 34:05 Sacks on democratic hesitation to end lockdowns giving Trump a strategic advantage, Friedberg on Hydroxychloroquine's benefits/risks 37:57 Sacks on potential resorting of the Bay Area & Silicon Valley due to remote work 41:51 Chamath on benefits of working remote, why San Francisco might lose large numbers of people 45:18 Tesla/Fremont situation a microcosm for politicization of the pandemic, benefits of people starting to distrust inept bureaucrats 49:33 Chamath on the beginning of the modern Cold War, dealing with market conditions considering China's standing in the world, ideological issues 53:46 Sacks on US/China relationship, how US can penalize China 59:25 Friedberg on how US can leapfrog China in manufacturing by using modern, automated solutions

Hey, everybody, welcome to the all-in podcast with Jason Calakannis and Chimouth Polly, Hapatia. We regret this podcast well on a really unique schedule, Chimouth. What's our schedule right now? Whenever we feel like it? Basically, it is whenever our significant others get so sick of us, that they kick us out and say, don't come back.

Yeah, we get thrown to the pool house. We decide to pop up the podcast. You're in Atherton. I'm in the city in San Francisco. Thank you, Duke of Discussion. Is there anything else you'd like to tell them? I could be like gate code. Gate code out the fence.

We had two guests on that people just went absolutely crazy for the two day. But they weren't available. So we're just going to talk shit about them. No, we have two amazing Davids in our lives, David Friedberg and David Sachs, and they are super smart, super effective at their work. Everything we're not, Shema.

And so we bring them back on the podcast and we'll do a little round table here and talk about life in the age of Corona. So welcome back to the podcast, David Sachs. Yeah, I could be back with you. And also David Friedberg. Thank you guys. Happy to be here. All right. Fantastic. So I just want to start off with our QAR check. How is everybody doing in this quarantine? How's everybody's mental health? Let's start with you, Sacks. Well, as you might be able to see, we've moved our bunker

to a undisclosed Mexican location. And it's been great. I think it's really kind of sad because where we're at is a tourist city that would normally be at peak season. And it's just deserted right now. All the construction stopped. Normally you see lots of hotels and houses being built and that's all stopped and there's no tourists so it's all just kind of cleared out but I think it's quite safe. You know every worker that I've

seen here since we landed at the airport to, you know, God transported to the community we're at. I mean, he's been wearing a mask. Much work consistent that I think in the US. And, you know, I think it's been, it's been fine. Now, of course, you founded the craft venture capital firm and people know before that, you obviously did Yammer and sold that to Microsoft for a billion dollars plus. And before that, you are the CoL of PayPal. What's going on with your business? Are you actively investing? And how is your firm running remote?

It's worked very well. I mean, we've always been super collaborative as a firm. We were already on Zoom and we were, you know, we share everything on Yammer. And so for us, just moving to Zoom wasn't that difficult. We've done four or five deals, I think, since the whole quarantine started. I'm sorry, sorry, sorry. Did you say that you actually use Yammer now in 2020? We're still using it. Oh my God.

Is Yammer still available? That's insane. That's insane. I mean, it's kind of gone a little bit buried inside of Microsoft, but you can certainly still get it. And no, we love it. I mean, the whole firm kind of works in Yammer. And it worked very well for us.

And now, what's going to happen with this incredible office that you have, this beautiful office you have in San Francisco and commercial real estate now that, are you going to come back to work? We start Twitter and square the Jack collection of companies. They're not going to come back to their offices. They'll work from home primarily going forward. What are you going to do?

Well, it will be a great asset for us in the year 2025 or something like that. No, I mean, we will eventually go back to work there. I think that the team still likes having an office. I think, you know, the idea that everyone wants to work out of, like, a small room and, you know, extra room in their house, I think, probably getting it is probably a little overrated. I think people would like to get back to the office. But do we have to have one? No, I mean, I think we've proven that we can do our jobs via Zoom.

And we've done a lot of, like I said, we've done four or five deals since the started, where we haven't met with the entrepreneur in person. It's all been done via Zoom. And it's work great. All right, Tomoth, how are you doing? What, what your mental health like? I get to see you went to the while on CNBC throwing bombs. But how are you doing?

I was really excited for phase two of the shelter in place to start here in San Mateo County. So that's been really good. A new poker table that I had built arrived today, which I'll be installing after this and what I mean by I'll be installing. You'll be supervising. I'll be supervising.

You'll be watching as people do. I'll be watching. And it's a beautiful table. I saw the pictures of it. Does it have an infinity edge? Is it an infinity edge poker table? watching as people do. Robert watching. And it's a beautiful table. I saw the pictures have a digital. And in the edge, is it an infinity edge over table? No, no, no, no, but I'll send you a picture when it's all done, but it just looks stunning. And I really want to try to organize the game soon so that I can get you guys back into

my little cave here. Yeah. I am ready for this shelter in place to end. I'll just be honest. And I think that my sentiments are the sentiments of a lot of people It's it's really tough really really tough. I am losing all my motivation to be put on It is weird to not see people even and you're an extrovert David you're an introvert and then David freeberg also on the line David how are you handling

all of this? I'm fine. I think one of the things that made a huge difference for me is the creating a rhythm in the day because there isn't one when you kind of normally get up and you go to work and then you come home at the end of the day from work. That's a rhythm and you kind of get kind of adjusted to it. So not having that a lot of people I've been hearing and struggling with that. I was certainly struggling with it having sleep issues and I sit on about a dozen boards some of which are small companies some of which have a couple hundred employees

And I've been hearing pretty consistently mental health issues across all the companies And I think it's just been really grading on people. I think at number one kind of says we probably do need to be together and have social space as David said, like being in the same office, people really miss that and you get a lot of value from that. And so I've been getting up every day in the last couple of weeks and going off-site, going out of my house to go work,

or actually working on another place that I have like a little office there and I go kinda work there. And so that's made a huge impact, honestly, on on my mental health being able to do that every day. So Just doing that's been been helpful. I not everyone has that privilege But I think it speaks a lot to why we're gonna need to go back to offices when this is all that and what do you think about What's happening with your businesses? Obviously you're running a Start-up studio, I guess would be one way to it, where you create companies and then spin them out.

What's been the business interruption, if any? We have a couple of hardware and lab companies. That's most of what we've done. And so those operations are paused. So that's been really frustrating. The teams have all found ways to adjust and work from home. So our companies are not predominantly software-based. There's a lot of software, but it's not predominantly

software, so it's been difficult on those scientists and engineers that work in a lab or in a physical environment But they have to go to do their work the larger companies we have a number of food businesses that Happened to be in the food supply chain one way or another Frankly those businesses are doing fantastically well, and there's been just this incredible success in the era of COVID on kind of a focus on fundamentals, like food, supply chain, efficiency, availability of things that people need.

And we were doing a lot in human health and we've kind of benefited from that. So yeah, I think this kind of a mix for us that I think every business is bifurcated one way or another during this kind of moment of punctuated equilibrium. Yeah, I think one thing I'd like to sort of talk about is we had you both on the podcast early on at the start of the pandemic. And I'm curious, Jamal, now that we're here over two months in quarantine,

sheltering in place and a lot of information, a lot of cards have turned over here. Right. We've seen the flop, I think we haven't seen the turn in the river, so to speak. What is your assessment of what we were talking about, you know, a month or two ago, and what we thought about this and what's become reality and what hasn't? What are you more optimistic about? What are you more pessimistic about? Chimoff, let's start with you. that we will have this pandemic or this disease well in hand within two years. And so whether it's a combination of a therapeutic and a vaccine or just a therapeutic, I just think that we're going to kick its ass.

And so that's made me more optimistic. I think that the thing that's made me more pessimistic, though, is the return to normalcy has been sort of cut on political lines. And it's been so massively politicized. I mean, when David talks about the fact that you can go to a developing country like Mexico and all of a sudden, everybody can get around the idea of masks. It's because that there's a level of common sense there that Trump's politics.

And in the United States, that just isn't the case. And so what you're seeing in this crazy way, I think, is sort of the center left and the left probably sticking very firmly to the ideology of sheltering in place and a lockdown, probably on the sort of hope that it gets trump out of office. And on the other side, sort of the red states, I think, have basically said, hey, I would rather get sick from coronavirus and take my chances than the 100% chance of failure that I have in my professional life, if you leave me at home for another week or a month of what have you.

So that's been a huge disappointment of how political this whole thing has gotten. And SACs, you've been talking about like common sense procedures. It's sort of the same question to you. What you first thought, and you had been talking about, you thought an L-shaped recovery, so we'll get into also the economy here,

but in terms of the disease, what did you think two months ago that you don't think now and what do you think? Well, in preparation for this, I kind of went through my Twitter feed to see what I was saying the last time I was on the pod and how well it was holding up. And two months ago today, I tweeted

that pandemic, that underreaction caused the pandemic and overreaction will cause the depression. And I think that's kind of where we are right now. We still have this pandemic with us, but now we're also potentially facing, I think, a potential depression because of the way we're overreacting. We're still in lockdowns and you know huge swaths of the country and No one can quite understand why I mean the original reason for the lockdowns was to buy us time So that hospitals wouldn't become overwhelmed like Italy well no we're in the country to the hospitals get overwhelmed and we're still in these lockdowns. And so, you know, I think that it's long overdue for it to end. Now, at the same time, you know, where I agree with

Tremont that the soul things become politicized where, you know, the people who generally want to get us out of lockdowns don't believe in doing anything. A lot of them aren't even willing to wear masks, which I think is just kind of insane. So where I come out on this thing is that I think we should end lockdowns but wear masks and it's very hard to find anybody in the political spectrum who agrees with that

because one side wants to keep lock down is going to definitely the other doesn't want to store mass and it makes no logical sense obviously and if you think about our political system the left is so far left that the moderates on the left side don't have a place to live anymore and then on the right the conservatives which i would put you in

uh... the group of who were uh... you know, looking for fiscal conservatives, they don't have a home anymore either. And so the most reasonable approach is clearly to start going back to work for people who are not at risk and who wear a mask. Yeah, I think there's been, since last pod that we did together, I think there's been three kind of major discoveries or sets of facts that have come out about the virus. Number one, the official fatality rate has been over, which is about 6%, you know, it's a very high fatality

rate. It's pretty scary, but we now know that that's overstated by probably at least 10 X because it doesn't take into account all the asymptomatic cases or mild cases that just never got tested. And this is the fatality rate of people who contracted the virus. Right, yes, exactly. As opposed to people whose case, the problem with the, it's kind of a debate between the IFR versus the CFR, the infection fatality rate versus the case fatality rate. The problem with kind of the official CFR numbers is that only the people who got really sick or you never got tested. And you know,

Freberg was the earliest person I know to start talking about the need for wide-scale population testing and these blood serology tests and other kinds of tests to establish what the real baseline is. But regardless of like, and there's been a whole bunch of different tests with different results, you know, we don't know exactly what the true IFR is to this day, but we do know it's probably closer to half a percent than to 5%. So that's sort of discovery number one. I think discovery number two is, and we knew a little bit, we saw a little bit of this

from the Wuhan data, but now it's really clear that which populations are at risk, and it's, you know, the data seems to suggest that people under 60 who are healthy don't have sort of pre-existing conditions are 50 times less likely to develop or there's a 50X greater chance for those over 60 in terms of having a really bad outcome. And so for people under 60 who don't have these pre-existing conditions, it's, you know, it's just not, yes, there's always, you know, examples of the contrary, but it's not this sort of gigantic risk. And so for two thirds of the population, they don't have a huge risk and we're still locking them down. I think the third thing, the third study, not just study, there's been studies and there's been models and then we've also seen practice, is that wide-scale use of mass, sort of ubiquitous mass wearing, is sufficient to control the virus, meaning to stop the exponentiality of the virus.

We've seen, you know, in the Asian countries or Czechoslovakia, other places, they've been able to get the so-called R-NOT, that the viral coefficient to go below one with Y-scale use of mass. And so we have a way to prevent the virus from going exponential that doesn't require lockdowns. And so the thing I blogged about with the last time I was on your show was, why would you do this to most severe thing, these lockdowns. And so the thing, you know, I blogged about what the last time I was on your show was, why would you do this to most severe thing, these lockdowns, and not do this easy

thing that's just merely inconvenient, which is a mess. Freeberg, when you look at it and you're the, I think, have the deepest science, clearly of the deepest science background of all of us, what, what, how do you look at this pandemic now that we're 75 days into it here in the Bay area and obviously, you know, the started in December, it looks like in China. What's your take on it now? What did you get right early and what have you changed your mind about recently? I think I'm actually funny. When you say that, I just pulled up the original WHO joint mission

on COVID final report. And the date of this report, by the way, is February 20. So there was this big thing they published 40 pages long from the WHO. And in it, they highlighted the fatality rate estimate inside of Hubei, Wuhan, and outside of Hubei. And we knew from this data very early on that we were at about a half percent fatality rate.

And then, you know, we saw all of this other stuff happen with Korea and the Princess Cruise Ship and the NBA players very early on. We saw all these people that were roughly asymptomatic and we're starting to get two kind of explanations for why that is. But from the beginning, I felt really like, you know, this is gonna be a largely asymptomatic

kind of spreading infectious factor. What I got wrong was when we went into lockdown, I don't know, Chimac, if you remember this, when we talked the first time on Jason's. Oh, I'm in your guys' podcast. I asked you guys, or you guys asked me when I thought we'd be back, and I was like, oh April 7th, we'll be back to work. And I also a bet going with you guys and I said we're gonna have less than 20,000 deaths in the US

I so overestimated the effectiveness of the lockdown and I think that was kind of you know One of the more kind of like striking things to me is the quote unquote lockdown and I just sent a video to Nick Nick do you have it can you cure it up? So basically, I, this is what I think has happened in the United States. Like pull this thing up. I was in Berkeley on Saturday and I went to play to meet some buddies and we, like Frisbee golf on campus and had a beer, some college buddies in mind. And so I'm walking around in Berkeley and there is frat party after frat party going on. No mask. Everyone's on top of each other. You can see the video right here.

I took a video of one of the fat parts. I think that's beer pong. Yeah, they're all paying beer pong. There's like girls and drinking and people are passing around bottles of vodka and there's no mask and this was the entire campus of Berkeley. And I think this is what's gone on around the country. So the belief that you could just kind of like lock away the virus, I believe like, oh my god, it's so extreme, it's so draconian, we're going to shut down the world and this thing is going to get stopped in 30 days, like happened

in China. That is not what happened in the United States of America. Like people want to be free, people want to party, people want to live their life, they want to go to work, they want to see their friends and family, and they're not used to being told no by the government. And so I think that's been to me the biggest surprise is just like how ineffective the quote unquote lockdown has been. And I think it really been to me the biggest surprise is just like how ineffective the quote unquote lockdown has been. And I think it really speaks to the need that David mentioned, which is this lockdown isn't binary.

You can't just say lock everyone down or let them all out. You've got a nuance your way to a solution, which means like masks, which means watching out for nursing homes, which means temperature checking before letting people in the buildings of over 100 people, like all the stuff that I think needs to be done for this to be kind of effective at, you know, tracking and tracing. And we can't just assume that, you know, a quote unquote lockdown is going to keep people inside and keep this thing from spreading, because the frat party, as you'll see,

is the perfect representation of what's really going on out there. All right, circling back around to you, Trimoff. What do you think of what the two David sort of outlined there in terms of the path forward and how we all handicapped, what was going on? Well, I think the reality is that by hook or crook, we're going to basically exit this lockdown sooner than we think because I think people just can't take it anymore. So there's no point in having a shelter in place order if everybody's running around playing beer pong. And so, it's not doing anything. And so, you might as well get the productive value of

the economy going again by letting people go back to work. And just finding some simple ways that people can look past the politics and just do the right thing. We're a goddamn mask and shut the fuck up and go back to work. It's really like, I mean, when you think about it, it's like, why is it such a big deal? Get everything you want and just put a little bit of cloth over your face. I mean, a lot of the folks that push back on this, you know, they're better off wearing the mask. Yeah, I mean, it is pretty striking when you watch the protest and you see a bunch of people who are, you know, obviously older and obviously obese. Those are not the best looking knives in the drawer.

Let's just put it that way. Not definitely not. And little dull and rusty is what I would say. Well, and you know, they're carrying guns and they've never served a day in the army. I mean, it's they're literally cosplaying. Or that's what I have nothing to say about that. All I'm saying is this whole mass thing is not such a big deal. Just if you can wear a mask and get back to being productive and get back to a job, I think you should be allowed to.

If you can wear a mask and get back to being productive and get back to a job, I think you should be allowed to. All right. So we had a big debate. A V-shaped, W-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped recovery. I was in the, I'm aspirationally V-shaped, but I'm expecting a U, a SACC, you were the L, and I think, Chimouth, you were the W, the U, or the L, we've had a V. How do you explain Chimouth? What is going on in the stock market?

Because you said it was the end of days You said this is gonna be a disaster. Is it going to be disaster? Is this the end of the days and we've got some false rebound and this V shape recovery is not sustainable? What how do you explain this Inexplainable V shape responsibility of a reason there's response yeah, there's two things to keep in mind First of all the economy is completely fucked V-shape responsibility. There's two things to keep in mind. First of all, the economy is completely fucked. So don't, don't, don't, don't, don't look at Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google,

in a handful of, you know, internet SaaS companies and, and kid yourself. We have 30 million American men and women out of work. That is every fifth person you see walking down the street does not have a job. What happens when lockdown ends? If we, if the lockdown ends in June as expected from most people, how many people are, how many were found? Yeah. Yeah. No. So, so look here, here's a thing that we've had. We've had trillions of dollars of money printed into the system. And when you print that money into the system, which the Federal Reserve has done,

it hits the asset markets, and it has basically stabilized the bond market, and the incremental dollar sits in the hands of an individual who must put the money to work. Because when you look back at this, this is not a random person managing their 401k, the overwhelming majority of the money sits in the hands of hedge funds or pension funds or sovereign wealth funds or mutual funds,

they have a job to do. And so you have to think about what is their incremental decision. So even if the stock market made no sense on any valuation metric, the incremental dollar that they have, which they're paid to put to work, will get put to work. And so what you've actually seen is a dispersion. And what I mean by that is if you graph the S&P 500 index versus the unweighted S&P 500 index, which basically means the first one ranks companies by market cap and gives the biggest companies more weight.

The other one ranks every company equally. There's been a massive split, a dispersion. And what it really shows is that companies that traffic and bits, so software businesses, have a bit, and companies that traffic and atoms have gotten completely decimated. And they are literally worthless. And so when you put all these things together, the real economy is in the toilet. There are tens of millions of men and women out of work. The earnings power of real companies that do physical things in the world are cheaper and lower than they've ever been. Meanwhile, the companies that have high velocity, high margin, software driven businesses have gone to the moon.

So it's unfair to look at 30 or 40 businesses and paint that as a V-shape recovery. It is a equity market that is buoyed by Fed dollars that is not mapping to the reality of what's happening on the ground. Okay, so SACs, you're pretty plugged into the economy and you think about this a lot. What do you think the recovery looks like? Is this going to be two, three, four, five quarter recession? Is it going to be depression era? Like some people are apt to say, what keeps you up at night thinking about the economy and what gives you hope? Well, it kind of depends if there are other shoes to drop. So I agree with Tremoth that,

the state of the economy right now is terrible and it's divorced from the financial markets because of all the money printing and interventions that the Fed and Treasury have been doing. One way to think about it is, well, the stock market's denominated in US dollars, and if they just printed a whole bunch more of them, those dollars are worth less. The price of the stocks are going to rise. But yeah, I think looking forward,

it's probably going to be a two to three year process to get out of this unless some other shoe drops, which could make it much worse. So you're betting on two to three years to get back to, let's call it, single digit unemployment. Well, let's see, we're at like 15% right now or something like that. So you know, 35 million people, you get down to, you know, 10 million, again, 20 million. Yeah, I mean, it's hard to say. It's going to take a long time to create all those jobs. You know, a lot of these businesses are knocked just going to come, you know, racing right back. So, yeah, I think it's probably like a two to three or a process to get back to some sort of, you know.

And by the way, the thing you have to remember is like, look, the unemployment numbers that we have had in the last probably seven or eight years. So during Obama and Trump have been completely manipulated because the number of people that are entirely leaving the workforce is quite high. And so, you know, it's not just a numerator problem. We have a denominator problem too. There are fewer and fewer workers that are willing to work because some of them just give up.

Right. Or it's just not worth it for the pay that's available is another state of reason. So the thing that we're going to have to figure out is how many of the people that are leaving the workforce may never come back. And that has a societal toll and weight that we all have to bear. Yeah, there's going to be a lot of people who maybe are in their 60s or maybe even late

50s, they got 10, 20 years left that they could be working in management sales, whatever it is. And they just say, you know what, it's not worth it. I'm going to go try to find a place to stay and maybe not rejoin the workforce early retirement or just capitulation. Yeah. Well, and, but, you know, remember I said about other shoes dropping. I mean, we, we're still in the early, I, I, I think we're still in the early stages,

seeing the repercussions of what, you know, but two, three months shut down the economy, you know, what, what, what that's going to look like. And so, the, you know, the wave of defaults is just beginning. And who knows what happens with cities and states, and so on down the line? Who knows, do the debt markets have an inexhaustible desire for to buy US debt, or could we reach some sort of saturation point? And then that triggers the next set of crises. to buy US debt or could we reach some sort of saturation point.

And then that triggers the next set of crises. So we just, I would say like the two to three year outlook is the one that's kind of like what it looks like today. But if there are these other big shoes to drop, it could turn into something much worse. I think, Friedberg, we're all in agreement that there will be a second wave of some type. Just depends on how big the spike is.

Do you think there'll be another New York City level outbreak where we'll see, you know, 2,000 people, 1,500 people dying in a certain region every day for some sustained period of time? What are the chances of that happening, Friedberg? I don't know. I mean, I think going forward, you know, the New York situation, people's behavior has been shocked. So, you know, to the points earlier, the most effective thing you can do is stop coughing on your hand, touching a railing. Someone else touches the railing and touches their mouth. I mean, that's kind of how this goes.

You know, there's been early on some weird like aerosolized studies that they've kind of said, hey, this thing spreads in the air and so on. It's really, you know, you got to be in a closed kind of confined space. So people are wearing masks now. So the likelihood of the transmission happening at the rate that we saw in New York, great paper out of MIT by the way that shows how this happened on the subway. Oh, really? Identified the subway as kind of the primary vector that drove transmission in New York City. That was always my thesis. And I remember talking about it and saying,

how is this not obvious to everybody that eight million people ride that thing every day or something? And it didn't, they did an incredible job proving it. So it's not like people running in central park or spreading coronavirus to each other. It's everyone in these confined spaces, coughing in the air, and then you kind of get this stuff.

And 20 people get on and off at every stop. That's the other thing people don't realize is that it's not just a bunch of people. It's not an airplane where you have X number of people going in one direction for three, four, five hours. This is 20 people getting on and off every five minutes. It's almost like you couldn't design a better incubator for it. And I don't think a city in the United States

approaches the density that you have in New York. So remember, these are not deterministic factors. There's like a spectrum of probabilistic spectrum here. So you have a lot of people, they have a certain type of behavior, they're not wearing masks, you kind of add these up and you end up with this really high kind of vector that drives this rapid spread as we saw in New York City. You're not going to see that in Dallas, you're not going gonna see that in Dallas, you're not gonna see that in Houston,

you're not gonna see that in San Diego, you're gonna have more of the slow study burn as some risk is taken in the environment, some risk is taken by frat parties and people not wearing masks and people touching their mouth, but it's not gonna have the same sort of massive effect we saw in New York.

So I wouldn't expect this to have a New York style second wave. I do expect there to continue to be this like slow burn going forward of new cases. And it's certainly going to be more obvious now that we're testing a lot more. And so, Tramath at this point, we're basically putting a price on life and saying, hey, some amount of deaths is worth taking the risk. And as Americans, a unique group of people in the world in how we look at personal freedom, Americans are just making the choice.

Hey, listen, if you don't wanna take the rest, stay home, but the rest of us, if we wanna take the risk, we're gonna go take the rest. That's what this has come down to when you're a mind-chima. Yeah, I think that it's very difficult for Americans to envision a world where like, their personal freedoms are infringed upon. I mean, it's sort of like one of the founding principles of the entire country. This is why I think that the tragedy of this thing is that the way to get everybody what

they want is so simple. As David said, it's like above 65, you stay home, you work remotely under 65, you temper to check and wear a mask and, you know, you're 95% of the way there, but it's become a left versus right decision to do it. You know, the mask wears are still in a lockdown and the non-mask wears want to get back to work and basically like there's, it's just another kind of culture war between the left and the right. It's really just shocking to me. I mean, I might, for what it's worth, if I am a betting man, so I'll just tell you, my line now is that I think that Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to win as a function of people's frustration in about the lockdowns. And I think that the Democrats' best hope of winning in November is ending these things sooner rather than later. It's amazing we're talking about a pandemic, a once in a hundred-year pandemic it looks like,

and we're literally looking at our reaction to it through the lens of this president being reelected or not. Like literally that's the determining factor on the advice we're giving to people we're telling people they can't go to the beach but they can be on an aeroplane they can't go to the test the factory but they can ride the subway i mean on a communication basis because there any worse way we could have communicated this to the populace well the communication was bad but the i think the bigger problem quite honestly is that the republican democratic governors in the united states can't get on the same page and The communication was bad, but I think the bigger problem, quite honestly, is that the Republican Democratic governors in the United States can't get on the same page.

And at the same time, there's just a tendency to support Donald Trump or not support him in a very reflexive, instinctive way that isn't helpful right now. And there just doesn't seem to be enough political wear with all and courage to just stand up and do the right thing independent of what your political persuasion is. So, but I think on the margin now, I think you have different but very similar boundary conditions to 2016, where there are all these people that kind of like told you one thing and did another. There are all these people right now that probably are preference falsifying as we speak. And they'll show up into the voting booth and they'll be angry if they're not back in their jobs,

especially if they've been laid off by as a result of not being able to get back. And they would blame that on the Democrats, not the Republicans and therefore Trump gets his next term. Well, because it's the democratic states that are pushing the hardest, basically, you saw the craziness in Los Angeles, but like Eric Garcetti was basically like, we'll enter the shelter in place in December of 2022. And it's like, it's Los Angeles.

Yeah. It's not gonna happen. Players gotta play. I mean, this is unbelievable. Yeah. Well, the, I do, I agree, the lockdowns, the, or the unwillingness to end the lockdowns, gives Trump an issue for November, assuming this continues,

that supersedes the incompetence of the COVID response, which is that, you know, our lives and livelihoods are not owned by politicians to, you know, meter out and give back to us and drips and draps, and as they see fit, that is the issue that the lockdown crowd is giving to Trump. And I do think it will, if it's still the issue in November, it will supersede the initial incompetence of the COVID response. And what did you think of this whole, what's the drug that Trump said he was taking, David Sachs?

I drugged the chloroquine. Yeah. So, or a free drug, maybe you take it. We talked about that early on and that, and I think you properly said, like if you took it early, this could be, you know, a, could has potential taking it later. It's probably too late. I think you nailed that on the pod last time. Why has this become such a political issue?

And what are your thoughts on that drug specifically and its potential efficacy? Look, I'm not a doctor, but from what I understand, there's just so you know, there's like side effects to this drug for a small percentage of the population. And this drug can actually inhibit energy production in certain cells, which can cause organs to dysfunction, and it particularly shows up in the heart.

So people end up with what's called a long QT interval and potentially some heart issues that can be pretty dangerous and deadly, depending on your body. So it's really a little bit of an unknown. There's also issues longer term with vision impairment, can damage your retinal cells and cause vision loss.

So there's risk to this drug. It's not like taking an ad-vill. It is a measured risk. It's a low probability, but the severity can be high. And so typically, with a scenario like that, doctors and scientists like to see phased clinical trials and you kind of do randomized and you have placebo and testing. And so that hasn't necessarily been done for this particular virus, this particular condition. And often the design of those studies matters a lot.

So you could give it to a bunch of quote unquote COVID patients, but if it's not being given to COVID patients either before or right as they're getting sick, maybe it doesn't show the results that you would expect from a prophylactic treatment, meaning you're getting it before you're really sick. And that's where it may be the most efficacious. And so some people are saying, wait, we don't know enough, don't do it, it's not worth the risk

because of that small percentage high severity problem. Well, others are saying, oh my gosh, it's totally worth the risk, because the downside if you get coronavirus can be really bad. And so there's a lot of room for debate here. And when there's a lot of room for debate, you usually kind of revert to some sort of base belief, or some base kind of political point of view or something.

And I think that's what's gone on here. This isn't a clear cut. The sun is yellow and the sky is blue kind of conversation. This is like, I can interpret this a lot of different ways. It does seem that like look, this drug, you know, like a lot of, has an effect in the same way that a lot of other, that this drug might have on a lot of other viruses. And this, especially plus zinc, you know, and this Z-PAC, this Zytheromycin,

which is an antibiotic, together may be really effective. And so yeah, if you weigh the downside and the probability of that downside for a patient against what the potential upside would be, depending on the risk factors now that we know those better for COVID, you can make an educated decision

and maybe it should just be left in the hands of doctors versus like, have some national statement about it, I don't know. But yeah, it's certainly a lot of room for debate and thus a lot of kind of, you know, political engagement on this. SACs, there's been a lot of talk about what the Bay Area looks like after this, whether it's commercial real estate with Twitter and Square going full work from home, and people not wanting to work in cities. What are your general thoughts on?

What the world looks like a year from now and maybe five years from now, if there is gonna be some permanent change, what do you think it would be? Well, there could be a big resorting. I mean, it kind of depends if the virus becomes endemic. It's just something we kind of end up living with. But, you know, so let's, if it does, I mean,

if you're like over 70, are you really going to want to stay in a place like New York City, or you want to go somewhere else? And so I could imagine if this does become this long-term thing that's just an endemic, you know, if we don't have a vaccine, I could see cities resorting where, you know, New York is people who are comfortable with COVID risk and, you know, it's... I think San Francisco, the big issue with San Francisco is that there are always a bunch of reasons not to want to live there. I mean, the city just seems like chronically mismanaged.

It's a huge. C. C. C. Lots of poop. The huge homeless problem. It's just public health issues with that. There's a lot of crime that isn't responding too properly. So there's all these reasons not to live there. But the reason why people chose to live there is because the tech industry had a very strong network effect. And you needed to be in Silicon Valley or San Francisco in

order to have access to these jobs and opportunities. And if those jobs and opportunities are now available via Zoom and you can be doing them from anywhere, are people still going to choose to live in San Francisco, you know, with the and it's, you know, with the, the, the cost of living and housing and apartments and all the rest of it that goes, that goes along with it. So yeah, I mean, I think there is some chance that this whole remote work thing could break Silicon Valley's network effect, and that would be really bad for places like San Francisco, which, you know, otherwise might not be the greatest places to live. Yeah, my thesis on this in terms of getting out of the recession, I think remote work could lead

to a level of efficiency and profitability in the companies that we have never seen before. If you think just about every manager now knows how to manage remote workers. You've learned that in like three, four weeks. You figure out how to manage people remote. Even people who hated managing people remote. All these gen Xers and boomers who are managing millennials and earlier gen Xers, they now know how to do it.

And what they quickly learn is, these three or four people in my team are crushing it. These two or three people don't need to be here. They're not actually adding any value. So I think what's going to happen is they're going to cut the bottom people, then they're going to cut their office space. Now you've removed, I don't know, call it, 30% of the cost spaces of this is 40% and it's operating better and people are happier. And then when you do hire somebody, there's gonna be more talent available

and you've just opened it up that you can hire somebody anywhere in the world without an office and you don't have to relocate them and you don't have to pay, I don't know what you guys think the average additional cost is to be in San Francisco, but I'm gonna say $30,000. So a $40,000 a year job or a $50,000 a year job

becomes a 70 or 80, something like that. And if all that happens, these companies are gonna be so profitable that they're gonna start growing and that leads us out of the economic downturn. I thought some of my thesis. That's not a thesis, that's a hope. Yeah. Hope's not a fucking strategy, Jason.

Well, I just think it's a potential way out. I think it, I mean, what do you think in general about this trend of remote then, Tramau? I think it's great. And I think that we're realizing that, you know, there's no monopoly on innovation. And companies can be really productive remotely that most of the work in an office is busy work and

politics and you can cut it all out and you can do the same amount of work in much less time which gives you more time to frankly be with your family or take up a hobby or learn a second language or a third language I mean I just think it's so much better for people to realize like we got to you know it's it's not like you you know it's not it's not 18 you know, it's not, it's not 18, 20 or 1920, it's 2020. So we're going to live to 100 years old, like we have a long time to be in the grind. And so, you know, working and accomplishing what you used to in half the time and not having to commute and being able to live where you want your people you like. Man, that has a huge positive impact to your kids, you, your community.

It's just way better. I just think offices are just complete kind of like it's all Shakespearean theater in the end and cutting it all out is great. And specifically San Francisco is just a complete cesspool dump of shit. And so, you know, being able to just get out of that city is just fine. All right, everybody, welcome to the all. You're listening to the all in my guess.

I read some stats yesterday that were just so unbelievably shocking, like the number of break ins, the number of, number one in the country. Here, number one in the country. The amount of disease that, like, communicable disease, like typhoid. And I'm like typhoid. I was born in a country and scratched in claw

to emigrate as a refugee to leave a country that had typhoid as a disease. So welcome home, Mr. Bof. Just to end up back in that in San Francisco. Did you bring it? That's a brother with you. That's an absolute joke. So yeah, I mean, the idea that I'd never have to go to San Francisco ever again is, oh my God, it brings joy to me.

It is an unmitigated disaster. And I think this will be part of the boom bus cycle that, David, you were part of when you were here at Sanford, getting an office in San Francisco or having an apartment. It was cheaper, I think, in the city than it was down in Palo Alto, wasn't it? Well, back in, yeah, when we moved Yammer to San Francisco, which was 2009, I think we were able to get space for $20 a foot per year. Crazy.

That's what I paid 2007, 2008. I read a crazy article. It was about the Kushners and this building that they owned that Brookfield Asset Management was going to buy. And it said that they bought this building. And so the Kushners moved to Park Avenue, the General Motors Building, overlooking Central Park or something.

It was a beautiful building. And it actually quoted in there the price that they were paying. And it was incredible because it was like a hundred bucks a square foot per year. And I realized, oh my God, they're paying less for Central Park views in New York than I'm paying for a warehouse in Palo Alto. The fuck is going on. This makes no sense whatsoever. Yeah, that'd be a supply and demand right there. And I thought to myself, this is crazy. Like California is so expensive, the taxes are so high. I think people are going to leave and droves, honestly.

What do we think of Elon selling all his homes? And then actually saying he's going to leave and move Tesla out. I mean, I don't think it's a practical reality to move Tesla out of California. I think that the incremental facilities can be built wherever he wants him to be built based on where he gets attacks and centers. Well, but I think the Tesla Fremont was a really good example of this sort of like culture war that's going on, this this political battle over lockdowns and you know you had kind of a middle-level health department bureaucrat in Fremont had locking their factory and saying they couldn't go back to work. Whereas if he was in Texas he could and then you know around the same, you had this whole like chilly, Luther thing in Texas where she was a small business owner, you know,

owns a, like a haircut place. And she was basically gonna be put in jail for a week for giving somebody a haircut. And there was like a, you know, dust up over that. So, you know, I think that, like, you know, the country is certainly ready to give back to work. And if this is the political debate, you know, in November, I'm not sure it will be I think that the country is certainly ready to give back to work. If this is the political debate in November, I'm not sure it will be because six months

are a really long time from now, but there was a four or five months. If this is the political debate, this will be the way that Trump gets reelected. Yeah. I think there's going to be some pretty significant benefits because of the reaction you guys are speaking to. It's not just about people moving, but it's a reaction to regulation. And that could have some pretty profound effects that could benefit certain sectors and businesses and accelerate new outcomes.

One of the things that I have a strong belief in is like, I think in 20 years, we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease. The only thing holding that up is regulation. Because the science is known, the engineering is basically there, and it's simply a function of getting these things approved and getting across the finish line.

Doing gene editing in humans for genetic mutations that cause harm to humans is a technique that we've known for 20 years and there was a guy, a patient that died, in 1999 from one of the first AAV treatments, the viral vector gene editing treatments. After that, there was this clamp down and suddenly everything stopped and there was like no longer any progress in the space and they're just now starting to come back. And there's a lot of really interesting technology that has been kind of hindered. I mean, not being able to put Teslas out,

I think, is the tip of the iceberg of what people are seeing regulation can do to businesses. And look, I'm by no stretch libertarian party card carrier. But I do think, and I see it in businesses that I'm involved in all the time, that this, you know, incredibly onerous, like, overreaching regulatory burden and bureaucrats really hinder great new things from happening in the world. And it's just become so friggin' apparent how inept the people are that are making the decisions that are doing this to us

are during this crisis. And I think it could have a profound benefit on kind of deregulation and accelerating the adoption of new tools and new technologies that could really help us all. So I view the positive side of this. It's not just like everyone's gonna leave California like there's inept bureaucrats in overregulation everywhere.

Let's talk to you politics for a moment. Chimath, you know, you heard the president call it the Wuhan virus. Obviously, there's no doubt that it came from there. There is a debate. Was this something that was not created in a lab, but that was being studied in a lab and accidentally got out and that's how the jump happened.

And there's some tension there between China and the US. What do you think the global reaction is going to be, and the fallout will be for China, if any, Japan is paying factories I read and helping subsidize them to move factories out of China so they can move that dependency. We always saw the dependency on PPE and drugs being made, actually in Wuhan in that area,

and how we don't have a supply chain that we can rely on for really mission critical stuff. How do we look at this Chinese relationship in the United States and global post pandemic? This is the beginning of the modern Cold War. And so it's America versus China. is China, except that China is a much more worthy adversary for us than the USSR was at their peak. And the reason is because China has been making strategic investments for the last 30 years. You know, the biggest thing that prevents China from really going guns blazing broadside attack on the US is that the US dollar is still the reserve currency of the world. But even there China, you know, is trying to do a digital currency and a stable coin. And these are all these state-sponsored

initiatives that come from, frankly, just strategic decision-making to try to usurp the United States as the most powerful country in the world. And so again, it goes back to, is this a political issue or is this an ideological issue or is this an exceptionalism issue or is just a practical reality that we do not want another country being number one? And can we all agree? And if we can all agree, then I don't think they'll win. Where do you sit on it? For you, is it practical, is it ideological?

Completely practical. I have zero. Like, I've been thinking about this a lot because I have not done any investments and I just did my first. So it's been three months and it was a credit deal. So it's not even equity. And I was reflecting on what am I trying to do because I felt myself frenetically spending

and working too much and looking at all these different opportunities. And I realized, wait a minute, my job here is not to win some finite game. This is not ending like a basketball game or a soccer match. This is like, I'm trying to be in this thing for 50 years. So my goal is to survive. And the reason why I say that is my ideology is very fluid. I have to be able to adapt to market conditions as they change because if I want to be a relevant person in the world in 50 years from now, first rule of business is don't go out of business.

Second rule of business is don't forget rule number one. So in that context, I think it's a very practical thing that we just have to deal with China and make sure that they do not usurp America's standing in the world as the most important country of the world. Just for me, it's ideological. I just don't want a communist country.

I don't care about that. That is torturing their citizens as the number one country in the world. Just for me, it's ideological. I just don't want a communist country. I don't care about that. That is torturing their citizens as the number one country in the world. I think it's extremely dangerous. I have a real issue with this. I don't think you have the right to judge. Just like Californians can't judge Texans and Texans can't judge Floridians. Oh no. You're wrong. You absolutely should judge people who are torturing people and not allowing people to have freedom of speech. Yeah, you should judge them actually. But you hear me right, violations. I think you should judge people. I think that we, there's a lot of that stuff in America that you stay silent on the

day. No, that's not true. I am absolutely for cannabis. Anybody who's arrested for cannabis violations and low level drug things, I think they should be let out of jail, just like JB Presco did in Chicago. I mean, and I think the death penalty should be repealed here because we don't apply it properly. Those are the number one and two things,

probably in the United States that go against the human rights, the Declaration of Human Rights. And I'm actually very pro fixing those things. I was totally against waterboarding. And I think that was the worst moment in my American history. I honestly think that like China's gonna do do China, India is going to be India. And instead of getting caught up in our own ideology, you should change it in your own

country and then make sure that the other country doesn't win. Well, and that's my point is, do you believe engagement with China leads them towards democracy and better human rights conditions for their citizens or not? I think that's the full Zerend. That is an absolute... Well, it worked for East Berlin, and it did work in saving Europe from the Nazis. So about the boundary conditions are entirely different, and China has proven that it works. Europeans were genetically bred to be lazy oligarchs.

They just needed whiskey. Okay, everybody. I think we just got kicked out of the iTunes store. Saxipoo. China. Hawk, Dove, Engagement, Isolation, where do you stand? You heard Chimoff say his position. Where do you stand?

Yeah, decoupling from China is going to be a bipartisan issue now. I think both candidates now will be well, Trump is going to is going to run blaming China for what happened. And I don't think why it's going to be defending China. In fact, they're going to try and peck him with the whole Beijing Biden label. And he's probably going to need to try and out Trump Trump on China. So decoupling is going to happen. It doesn't really make sense for us to be dependent on China for our antibiotics, for our medicines, for our PPE, for any of these any of these products that are important for national survival. I think all that stuff is

going to come back home. I think trading with them for other things might be toys, apparel, things that just start fundamentally strategic the same way. I think that can continue, but, you know, the thing about trade is it creates interdependence, and I don't think that this country is going to want to be dependent on China for anything strategic anymore. Two questions for you, David. What is China's liability if any at this point with this pandemic? Obviously if they, you know, they withheld information or silence whistleblowers,

that's a whole different level. And then TikTok, should we allow TikTok in this country? Should we, if we're not allowed to have Facebook or Twitter in China, take those questions either way, do you want? Well, the on liability, I mean, I think, yeah, their liability is huge. I mean, there's still a bunch of questions we got to answer around where exactly the virus came from.

But the really fateful decision that I think China made is when they shut down travel to Wuhan, to and from Wuhan, you know, with respect to other parts of China, but they let people from Wuhan just kind of, you know, leave to go all over the world. And so, you know, they weren't letting people from Wuhan go to other parts of China, but they were able to come to the US. So I think they do have a huge liability, but are we going to hold them to it? No. I mean, as a practical matter, you know, we're not going to, you know, it'd be a mistake

to try and change principle of sovereign immunity in the courts. But I think in terms of popular opinion, they do have... There are other ways to, there are other ways to quote-unquote punish them. Like, I mean, and the US is already doing it. So, you know, for example, the US is limiting and constraining Huawei's ability to get access to 5G. And so, you know, it really forces China to either buy European and American equipment, which is essentially to say that, you know, it really forces China to either buy European and American equipment, which is essentially to say that, you know, the five eyes will be able to basically spy into China,

or they have to basically, you know, storm into Taiwan and take over TSMC. I mean, so there are all these other gambits and strategies that one can take without getting ideologically caught up in, you know, Chinese human human rights because they're not gonna change. I mean, look, all wealth comes from trade. Whether it's at the level of individuals or nations, wealth comes from trade. And so it would be silly for us to say that we're just never gonna have trade with China.

But I think that trade also creates interdependence. And so we're not gonna, I don't think, continue to engage and to depend on them for things that are high to alter our national survival. And so that's going to be the change. And the other thing is, we're going to demand that the trade be more reciprocal. Take the TikTok example.

Well, what's probably going to happen is that the TikTok will probably be caught up in some larger negotiation. And is the quipipro quo will test against the cell cars in China and TikTok gets to operate in the US maybe. But you know, I don't think TikTok sort of falls into the you know, necessary for natural survival category. So it really falls into the reciprocity. from national survival category. So it really falls into the reciprocity, you know, principle. And the question, I guess, will be, are we getting enough in return to allow them to operate here? And I think that's the way that all of this commerce is going to start working.

And that's the thing. At least we can like confront our hypocrisy. So Jason, I don't disagree with you about how, you know, gross the human rights record is. I just think it's a joke that we all sort of like cry foul like it's like the biggest thing in the world when we can't even clean up our own backyard. And then meanwhile, we continue to trade with them. That's just utterly utterly. Yeah, so that's why I think we have to continue to work

on cleaning our backyard while continuing to enable the freedom of our own backyard. Meanwhile, win the game against China. And winning the game is not basically pushing for human rights reforms. It's making sure, as David said, we have a better trade balance and making sure that the critical parts

of the supply chain and infrastructure that America needs for national security isn't dependent on a third party who have completely different incentives than we do. Well, and then there's also soft things. Why are we taking American movies and changing the ends in order to have them sold in China? Like they're literally corrupting our art.

And that incremental dollar that Hollywood's getting or whichever, you know, person trading with China's getting, I think it's not worth giving up what makes America unique and a leader in the world free-break, you have any thoughts on China. There's about 112 million people in China that work in factories. Factories in China are purpose-built, so they're built to make a thing, and then they got to get retooled if you want to make another thing.

You take those two facts, it's very hard to kind of replace China as a source of production for a lot of what we consume in this country. That's the reality. So there's two ways you could go, and then there's two kind of necessities, and you end up with a matrix of like two by two. You could decouple from China, and basically recreate that same production system here in the United States, and that just wouldn't fucking be possible. Like, we don't have enough people to work. We don't have the ability to do that. The cost of everything would go up by 5x. We could invent new systems of production, which we have the ability to 3D printing, bio manufacturing, all these other kind of really interesting ways of making stuff that could replace the old factories that are run in China. Similar to what maybe Elon has tried to do with his automated factory with Tesla.

And so through automation, through 3D printing, through bio-manufacturing, you can kind of change the methods of doing this stuff. If we could do that, then we could decouple from China. So the reality is, I don't know how we continue to consume things at the percentage of wallet share that come from China without rebuilding how you make stuff. No, but that's the whole point. By the way, I think the reason why that's valuable is that that's the best way for us to actually get back to an inflationary cycle as well.

So I completely agree with you. It is incredibly inefficient. It'll be incredibly costly. But that's where I think you shift the balance of power so that instead of all the power sitting on the side of capital, you shift it to the side of labor, labor demands for wages, and then all of a sudden costs go up, input costs go up, prices go up, inflation exists, and that fixes a lot of our debt problems, it fixes our deflationary super cycle, it fixes a lot of things. And so, if things got more expensive, it would be good for the economy.

It would be very good. Yeah, even with maximal, like look, that replace 112 million workers in China with some number of Americans, you know, I'm not sure you can make all the stuff you need to make here. Yeah, I mean, there's other countries too. I mean, I think people are moving factories to Taiwan and Vietnam. Yeah, but if we create new methods of production,

which we're uniquely positioned to do, we can completely reinvent the wheel in a lot of industries and actually produce for the world. Yeah. Right now, China exports physical goods, the US exports of virtual goods. And if we want to get into the business of making physical goods, we have to just do it 10x better.

We have the ability to do that. We just got to get the fucking will. So if I were to take $3 trillion of federal money and treasury bonds and hope that they don't turn into junk bonds, I would basically turn that money into reinventing the systems of how do we make stuff using these new technologies that the US is uniquely positioned to capitalize on and you know I love this streetberg leave one you left work

It could make a could make the same thing that a hundred Chinese workers make there you go I love it That's and I think that's where we got to an hour into this freeberg you win you got the best and then you got the hot It's taking the whole group is if we are gonna bring back manufacturing let's leapfrog it Let's just go. Let's just you we don't have to keep letting them make you know socks or iPhones but you know let's make the next automated factories and the 3d printing factories here and buy a manufacturer anybody have anybody have anything they need to promote or plug at the end of the podcast anything they're working on that people should know about now but I love you guys I fucking miss you

I want to kiss all of you on the belt. Wow. Just exactly what I was thinking, Chimath, I was about to, so back at you. I've been locked down for three months. I'm lost my mind. I mean, this is, I made 12 for me. And I think we all got to go to Mexico and see sax for a. Yeah. Let's do it.'s add some friends come down and we play golf and no one wore masks within our little circle. And nobody got sick. And, you know, and you're all been tested. We haven't been tested, but we don't know any symptoms. I got tested twice, negative both times.

And it was a very weird thing, because I'm think I'm freeber, correct me if I'm wrong. I would, I should be rooting that I had it and it didn't do anything to me, right? Totally. By the way, let me just say one more thing that's a really interesting finding. This paper came out a few days ago that shows that 40 to 60% of the population that has never been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the current coronavirus, already had activated T cells to the virus. And the reason is that they've had other coronaviruses

through a common cold and they've developed this immune response. So this may explain why a large percentage of people are just so asymptomatic and totally fine. And it's a pretty astounding finding. And so you could get checked for those other antibodies or these activated T cells and know if you're in a good position

to kind of ward off the coronavirus. That's another thing we should probably do. That's 60% of people that already have this. By the way, that won't stop the spreading. That person will still get infected and spread, but their immune response is such that they'll shut the thing down pretty quickly. So would you call this like some parallel or shadow herd immunity or individual immunity? It's individual immunity and it's related to just cross re activity with other coronaviruses.

And so we've already developed an immune response to other coronaviruses that that gives us seemingly a pretty good response to this coronavirus for, you know, more than half, up to half. David, on a percentage basis, how, how much do we know about this virus, just as we wrap up here? If you had to state a percentage of like in two years, we're going to know 100% or 90% about the virus, whatever it is. What do we know now? We know everything about the virus itself. We are very like like with any virus. We know very little about how it affects a specific human based on their genotype, meaning based on your health and your genes. Here's what this virus is gonna do to your body.

And we're not gonna know that in two years and we're not gonna know that, we don't know that for most viruses for humans today. The matching of genotype to genotype of viral to... But if we understand X amount about the HIV virus or Ebola, what do we know now? I mean, maybe Ebola would be the best one. We have pretty good knowledge of that after X number of years. What do we know now in a percentage basis of coronavirus?

We had to guess. We know everything about the virus itself, like 100%. Okay, about this. Yeah, the human response to the virus and why it's causing these weird symptoms with different people and so on. Yeah, I'd say we're probably I don't know 40% 30% We've kind of mapped the outcome, but we haven't mapped the progress to the outcome in the human body. All right, listen, great job, Tremoth, great job, David Sacks, great job, David Freiburg. If you want to subscribe to the podcast, type in all in with Tremoth. And love you guys besties.

Yeah, all right, shuffle up and deal. Can't wait to see that new table and get back to work. Let's get back to work. Where you got to mess people. We're a mask. We're a mask. Okay, be safe.