All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - Inside the Private Stock Market Boom: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI & the Rise of Secondaries

Episode Date: June 7, 2026

(0:00) Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Kelly Rodriques join the Besties! (0:47) Secondary Markets are Booming & Competing with IPOs (3:10) Why Companies are Staying Private So Long? (9:22) SPVs, the F...orge-Schwab Deal, Democratizing Private Market Access (13:28) Secondary Markets as Exit Liquidity for VCs (27:00) The Private Market Bubble? (32:03) Hottest Secondary Companies Right Now Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY - Agentic AI is introducing a new investment discipline. As AI shifts to consumption-based models, EY connects spend to enterprise value. https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/ai/agentic-ai-token-costs?WT.mc_id=3501318&AA.tsrc=sponsorship NYSE - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. https://www.nyse.com Plaud - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight. https://www.plaud.ai Follow Brad: https://x.com/altcap Follow Gavin: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow Kelly: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-rodriques-9b49418 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Everybody wants access to these private markets. We're right now to discuss all of this, is Kelly. Rodriguez is a Ford CEO. We see a world where the private market opens up and is accessible to any U.S. and global investor. There's 19 companies in the private market AI basket. These companies have grown on average 300%. Please join us in welcoming Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atreides. The ROI at AI is empirically, factually, unambiguously.
Starting point is 00:00:30 been positive. Investing is the search for truth. We welcome in. Brad Gersner, it's good to be back with you. You have a program called Invest America. I think we have a historic moment right now to get everybody into the game of capitalism. Do we have a few slides from Brad to kick this off? You know, let's let's get going. A little spicy thoughts started. Like old times. Like old times. This panel, I actually was backstage. I said, Gavin, do you know we're talking about secondaries? He's like, What do you mean? And I say, okay. So here, let's just set this up for everybody.
Starting point is 00:01:04 The room's full of people who are allocators, people are looking for distributions. So this is secondary markets over the course of the last decade. This is the amount of money going into VC each year, the amount of money coming out of VC each year. The red line represents the net effect of that. So, Chimoth, we're in like five years, right? Where a lot more is going in than's coming out. But the secondary market is at record volume.
Starting point is 00:01:28 So this is, you know, I call these companies quasi-public companies. These are these later stage companies. There's buying and selling that's going on every day. Look at that, Jason, relative to the 21 peak. We thought that was crazy. At the end of 21, we're double that now in terms of secondary transactions. This is the amount of employee secondary. So this is people buying into Andral, Anthropic, SpaceX, now represents 31% of all primary venture activity
Starting point is 00:01:57 is buying into these secondaries in 2025. Secondaries are now competing with IPOs and acquisitions as the principal way that these guys are exiting. So I thought that was a decent setup to start the conversation this morning, just to level set how important secondaries have become. And then the final one is secondaries over the last couple of years were trading at a discount to market.
Starting point is 00:02:24 So if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we could send DPI back to RLP's. Today it's at 106, so a premium in the market as a Q1.25. And this doesn't include some of the wild west of SPVs that have been unraveled recently, people charging 10% load in fees, double carry, and a lot of gray market, off market stuff. this is also having a profound impact, Gavin, on employees at these companies that I want to hear about because you've seen it up close and personal with SpaceX, and they have a very orderly process here. So why don't we start there? What impact is this having on the employees, Gavin, and then on the market, how orderly is this? And who are the buyers? Are the buyers the sucker at the table?
Starting point is 00:03:21 Are these family offices, high net worth individuals who keep hearing us to, talk about Anthropic or SpaceX or Andrel and they just say, I have to own the name and they're not discerning. So Gavin, maybe you could start about the impact on the SpaceX employees you saw firsthand, et cetera. Maybe broadening it beyond SpaceX. I do just think if companies are going to be staying private longer, this is absolutely necessary. I think there are a lot of people who are very wealthy on paper, but actually cash four. And if you're making, you're making, you're making tremendous sacrifices because you know you work for a company that you really believe in and you're contributing a lot to that company it's hard if you can't
Starting point is 00:04:06 buy a nice house for your family it's hard if you can't afford to do nice things especially in your seven eight or nine of working at the company you tell your spouse we're worth 10 million on paper 30 million on paper and you don't own your home yeah are you're 15 and so I think this is necessary and important And, you know, whether it is good or bad, I think it is very clear that companies are going to stay private for longer. What's the reason to stay private longer, truly? I don't think there is actually a good reason to stay private longer. Here, here.
Starting point is 00:04:43 And I completely agree with you, too. Yeah. Why has it happened? This is founders don't want, let's just call it what it is. Founders don't want to be under a microscope. They want to build and enjoy life and have it easier than being on the, the public market microscoped? Yeah, I think there is a perception that life as a private company is easier and you have more
Starting point is 00:05:00 freedom and you can think long term. I don't agree with this. I always think about Mark Zuckerberg's commentary that had he been public. So just, you know, Facebook, I won't call it a near-death experience, but long ago, it's difficult to believe, but I don't know, 2010, 11, 12, Facebook did not believe in apps. They believed in something called HTML 6. 5, HTML 5. HTML 5.
Starting point is 00:05:30 HTML 5. Yes, you were the actual expert. It was the cataclysmic debate. And it was me and Brett Taylor, me versus Brett. I was like apps. I want to go build a phone. Brett was like HTML 5. Zuck picked Brett.
Starting point is 00:05:43 Spent the next three years unwinding that decision. Absolutely. And Mark Zuckerberg, it basically the idea was, you know, the iPhone comes out. And initially there was not a big app ecosystem. And there was a thought that, hey, there's no need for apps. You're just going to use the web browser on your phone, and HTML5 was a way of making websites look mobile native. Dynamic.
Starting point is 00:06:08 Yeah, and this seemed like kind of the future to a lot of very smart people, including Google, Facebook, but it was not the future. It was wrong. And what Mark Zuckerberg has said, I think several times in public, is he profoundly believes that had he been a public company when, you know, there was this internal debate between Shemoth and Brett. And the detail was actually, I went to Zuck and I said, I need a billion dollars to build this phone.
Starting point is 00:06:35 And we are in this moment in 2010 where we can have the third leg of the stool. There's Android, there's iPhone. Neither have really taken off yet. And he's like, we don't have a billion. And I said, but the public markets will give us a billion. And he said no, but then we went public a year later. But that year made all the different. made all the difference. And he has said that had, I had the constant pressure testing from public
Starting point is 00:07:00 market investors, there's a dynamic. I was talking to another CEO here this morning. When you're the CEO of a private company, you are the most special flower to all of your investors. You're like, you are as important to your board members, particularly if you're really successful. You know, maybe as the board members' families or parents, you know, the board members think about you a lot. Once you're public, you're one of thousands of companies, and that's its own dynamic. But the consequence of this is that private investors are often selling to management teams. And at some level, that can mean telling management teams what they need to hear, because you want to be able to keep participating in the rounds.
Starting point is 00:07:43 Once a company's public, you can buy or sell as you wish, and this means that investors feel freer to give companies management teams. And Zuckerberg said, had I been public, had I been getting, rigorous, detailed questions from really smart public equity investors, I think I would have, you know, made the best out of challenge. The second unwritten story of that, which has never been said, he called me. He's like, hey, man, what the fuck is going on over there? And I was like, yeah, I know, because I had just left.
Starting point is 00:08:12 And then we wrote a deck. And I walked over to Zach, and I'm like, here's the deck of what you need to do. Do these things. Well, this is a key point, I think, Gavin. When you're private, you do not get clean information as the CEO and the management team because people want access. And once you give the truth or you ask the hard questions, you might lose access. 100%.
Starting point is 00:08:37 The sycophantic nature of private markets is real. Now, an exceptional CEO. Elon. Seeks out. Negative feedback. He's looking for that. But not many, and actively discards, but not many CEOs maybe are wired that way. By the way, I do think we have to give Brad credit.
Starting point is 00:08:55 Yeah. That was a very good deck you sit back in 2012. No, because he did the second one. He had to get the second one. He did the open letter to Zuckerberg at the end of, was that at the end of 22? October 22. What did you call it get fit? What was the, time to get fit.
Starting point is 00:09:10 Time to get fit. That was an impact. Those are two very impactful. Okay. So look, you're hearing the bulls ongoing public. But Kelly, take the red team the other side because you're on the other side. You built a private business. You sold it to Schwab.
Starting point is 00:09:22 So clearly one of the large. financial institutions now is going to ram its way into this market. But then you're seeing a lot of pushback. Anthropic is like, hey, dissolve these SPVs. Open AI, I think, was saying today now, dissolve these SPVs. Should we dissolve the SPVs? Where are they coming from? And why are you on the right side of history? And have you had to dissolve any of the ones on your marketplace? No. No. Look, I think that, first of all, being a private company, CEO for most of my career and then being a public company CEO for three years, I recognize the job is incredibly different. It's much less fun. You're not doing the same. What do you mean when you say much
Starting point is 00:10:07 less fun? Turning into an investment manager primarily as a public company CEO is a very different job than being a visionary product first, first principles, business. When you become a public company CEO, everything changes. And I would say in the world we're in now, the kind of capital you can raise, the kind of capital that was represented in the very last discussion, allows you to extend your private life. SpaceX's a private company for 24 years. But the reality is these SPVs that are now emerging because these companies are getting so big
Starting point is 00:10:50 is because a market's trying to happen. And a company like SpaceX has done this extraordinarily well. They've run essentially liquidity programs for almost a decade because there's so much pent-up interest in both being an investor and getting liquidity for some of the reasons that Gavin was mentioning. So I think what we see now is the next phase of this. This Schwab deal with Forge basically says to the world, this is a real asset class. It's more than just secondaries.
Starting point is 00:11:26 We're going to put these companies, the company's equity into fund products, into very well-managed, regulated SPV structures, because they do serve a purpose in the market. Yeah, but if you're, how do you convince Elon's, specifically to give you access to that when he wants to do it himself. And he has a team, and every six months he runs it himself. How do you get access to that? What's your pitch to the next Elon? Here's the pitch. The pitch is you're going to go from being a private company eventually to a public company.
Starting point is 00:12:01 What Schwab represents is 46 million investors in $12 trillion. This will change capital access and the way that you distribute your shares moving from private to public. How did that work when you pitched him on that? Were you successful? Well, I'll tell you, we got our first SPVs on SpaceX in 2018, in 2019. Was he okay with it? Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:12:26 Totally permissioned. And then, as we got closer to the IPO, we said, guess what? We've got 30 million retail investors that would like to have a $50,000 slice of SpaceX. and he went out publicly and talked about having broad-based distribution at the IPO price. At the IPO price. And Schwab was named one of the IPO allocations. Beautiful pitch. I do think this is actually a very effective pitch.
Starting point is 00:12:56 I think a lot of these CEOs, they're a little bit ambivalent about, you know, and I think they understand that maybe the institutions who are investing in these private rounds, you know, they may represent, you know, unions, they may represent retirement plans. but I do think they like the idea of democratizing access, and if they're building something that they think is great, giving ordinary Americans an opportunity to participate, I actually think that's a very appealing story to a lot of these CEOs. Well, because they're catalysts, and they understand the power of equity.
Starting point is 00:13:27 So, Brad, what is the downside then of, because you're part of the GoDirect movement now, BG2Pod, officially Fifth Bestie, Gavin officially Six Bestie, You got, Gavin, that's new news. We officially made you six besty today. But does that mean I'm definitively behind Brad? Because that's the real news. You're standing behind Brad.
Starting point is 00:13:49 You're just giving them that big bear hug right behind them. Wow. So are you saying of the big spoon? You're the big spoon now. In the side draw with the extra spoons. But Brad, it's getting very weird, very quick. In all seriousness, with great power comes great responsibility. sometimes the enthusiasm people can have can exceed reality.
Starting point is 00:14:16 Going direct. You've become more measured, I've noticed, as your profile has gone up. I think all of us have to just make sure people don't blindly follow trades. And you were talking stuff down on CNBC a couple of times saying, hey, I don't think the average American needs to be in some of these companies. there's time. I get worried. I get worried at this point in the market stage, particularly on CNBC where you're talking to retail investors at home. Yes. I was one of those retail guys looking up to everybody on this stage, trusting everybody on this stage, and when people are
Starting point is 00:14:52 telling you to yolo into, right, double fee structure, SPVs and all this, you know, like, it's time to be careful, to do your work, to be thoughtful. We're in this because we want this to be durable democratization for a long time. We want to build trust among those who feel left out and left behind in capitalism. We all think that we need to go public sooner. The reason I think it is destabilizing when you're creating trillions of dollars in private value and 80% of America think it's a scam where they're left out and left behind. And then they come rushing in and they could be maybe play.
Starting point is 00:15:34 not so good cards. Right. So all I'm saying, like I said about, they asked the question on CNBC last week, if you had $100,000 of fresh capital and you were sitting at home, is today the day that you would shove it all into the market? And I said, no, I think about it in sizes, right? We just had two of the biggest months in the last 10 years in the public markets. They've been big months. So if I had a stack of 100, I may put 30 to work today. I'm never going to pick the bottom. I'm never going to pick the top. certainly wouldn't be putting it all to work. And I'd say the same thing about late stage privates, people who are yoloing into this stuff, and then they feel really disappointed. They're like, hold on a second. I bought the SpaceX IPO and it didn't go up 3X. Let me ask you then.
Starting point is 00:16:18 Do you view this as exit liquidity for you? Like, would you shape your portfolio and returns and increasingly say, you know what, I don't know when this guy's going to go public? Yes. Let me just pump the stuff out. Let me get the distribution. Let me send it to my LPs and just call it a day? We are selling into this. You're selling into this. Right. So I have LPs in this room who say,
Starting point is 00:16:39 listen, we invested in your VC5 or VC6 seven or eight years ago. If you can go sell a slice of that at four or five X, and we get DPI and it's priced really high, then go sell some of it. And we often don't talk about this in Ventureland. Half of what we do is in the public markets. Gavin and I get up every morning and we think to ourselves, should we buy today or should we sell today? Venture capitalists don't think about the sell part. They think about the buy part. So if we're going to
Starting point is 00:17:13 stay private for longer and we're going to have trillion dollar, you know, private companies and data bricks at $200 billion, you've got to think about is today a day we should be selling some and returning it to our investors. But doesn't it create, though, as what Jason said, these very complicated personality dynamics where maybe you get shot out of a new company, maybe you get shut out of an incremental round, and, you know, there's bad blood because you're a credible investor and there's the signaling risk. Whereas in the privates, if you and Gavin decide to sell, nobody knows. Well, no, in the privates, sorry, in the publics, nobody knows. Exactly. In the publics, they don't know until our 13F comes out, okay? But in the private market,
Starting point is 00:17:55 it's always a conversation between me and the founder to say, listen, we're going to sell 30% of our position. They never like it, Chimath. They're always like, we wish you wouldn't do that. They don't want it known, et cetera. But my job as a fiduciary to the LPs in this room is to do that. It does feel Gavin. Like we have crossed over four early stage venture to a point in which there is a third way. Either your company had M&A, and we saw in the pre-eastern, yesterday that during the wrath of Lena Khan there was no M&A and it just froze the market. Now it's coming back. IPOs, we did have some freezing of that market for certain periods.
Starting point is 00:18:37 But this third way is now fantastic. I can tell you as the earliest of the early, we are now pari-persu selling into every chance we get because our average investment is at $10 to $20 million valuations. When they hit $500 million, I tell the founder, you're going to start selling a 500 million, I'm going to sell right alongside you so that I can invest in the next you coming into the market. Everybody's fine with it. But I can tell you six or seven years ago, when I did this with a company, they begged me to not participate when they hit peak Zerb, 2021. They begged me, Jake Hal, you have to be loyal to us. You can't sell pari-parseu.
Starting point is 00:19:16 And I said, you guys are clearing 40 million of the 110 million dollar round. I'm just asking to be next to you. Same amount. Can I ask Kelly a question? How do you, how do you, systematize this so that it's like an exchange so like if we just want to hit the bid we can do it like what i don't like about the secondary markets is you know i ask my cfo he calls five guys then my fund cfo she calls like four you know it's like ticket brokers yes we get a bunch of bids none of it makes any sense and i'm like and i'm already dealing with as brad said the adjita from the ceo it's got to be easier than this like yes yeah look 10 years ago we said there needs to be infrastructure to pull this off. This can't just be a big shadow market. We're sort of in this
Starting point is 00:19:59 tipping point now where we spent the last three years building this brand new platform so that a company could plug into it the same way they could list on an exchange and say we're going to offer liquidity. And furthermore, if you're a VC and you're on that cap structure for 10 years and you want to offer LP liquidity, you can do it in a way. But to be specific, what do you mean? You're like we would be plugging into Schwab's 30 million humans that are buying stuff on Schwab? Yes, there's a platform. We brought a platform with about three million investors, and now we're going to add 46 million investors to them. Yeah, but wait, hold on a second. Aren't those accredited investors? Who do they need to be?
Starting point is 00:20:37 Because we just have the chair of the SEC on. Yes. So today, if you are trading individual shares, whether it's in an SPV or direct on a cap table, you're accredited. However, there are products coming to market. We can talk about this in detail later, that have 60 companies, including SpaceX, that are listed products for unaccredited $500 minimums, and that capital for those funds will be the underlying... These are closed-end funds? These are interval funds. Interval funds. Robin Hood's got one out now. I think Naval just did US VC as one of these. He's going to contribute them. Now, the closed-end funds are a very different bet because you're betting on FOMO, because if you look at the underlying value of some of the assets and those
Starting point is 00:21:24 closed-end funds, they have no bearing to reality of what those underlying shares are actually worth. So price discovery is another key component of this structural shift. But to answer your question specifically, if a VCs, LPs want to recycle or want to get liquid, then a platform like this will allow them to recycle that capital and put it back into the next vintage fund if they want. I have a question for you based on this. When these returns come out, the mean return in venture is going to look incredible. The median return is still going to be shit. So walk us through how people will sort through that and the reality of what's going to happen in the next year. Well, so I think there's two very important things. One, I observe, if you,
Starting point is 00:22:14 if you were a venture firm and you do not have material exposure to one of these trillion-dollar-plus companies that you had many, many chances, you know, to buy into, you're not only your returns not going to be good, but you're not going to have DPI on a relative basis, but you're not going to have DPI. And, you know, there's exceptions, you know, great Series A firms. They may not have this, but their returns are still amazing with great DPI. But in so I am beginning to see venture firms who don't have exposure to one of these companies behave in strange ways because I think they're starting to feel a little bit of franchise risk because their DPI and their returns are going to go from, you know, hey, top quintile, top turtile, terseille.
Starting point is 00:23:03 So they're doing unnatural things. They're writing what I see as call options. Like a bunch of these, you know, neolabs. Well, I need a story. I've done. something. And maybe some of these call options pay off, but I do think they're engaging at some level and maybe they're chasing it. They're chasing. In gambling terms. Whereas the people who have exposure to this, I can be a lot more disciplined because they know they're in a great position. I think another very important dynamic is going to happen in the world of long only mutual funds and crossover funds. So long only mutual funds, you know, my former employer, Fidelity, amazing place, love it. Bailey Giffer,
Starting point is 00:23:43 Capital Research, Wellington, Tero, they all can, per SEC rules, allocate up to 15% of their funds and do privates. And these are the biggest pools of capital in the world. They dwarf sovereign wealth funds. But, you know, most firms, because they don't want to get in trouble with the SEC, they say, hey, we're going to cap it at 3% or 5% or 7%. It was very public. Bailey Gifford was forced to sell SpaceX last year for regulatory reasons. And What's going to happen has these companies go public. All of these long-only mutual funds are, by and large, finding it hard to participate in private markets right now
Starting point is 00:24:25 because they're at the limits of their self-imposed... 3%, 3, 5%. When a company goes public and lockup expires, it moves out of that bucket. Nice. So this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out, out of the market for a while. That's a lot of dry powder.
Starting point is 00:24:49 There's a lot of dry powder. The next trade is up then. The marginal trade is up. Founders are going to be in the cap bird seat. People are going to be looking to put money to work. Interesting buzz going around about accreditation rules. We had the head of the SEC on All In's interview show. We did it.
Starting point is 00:25:07 And they're going to have a sophisticated investment. investor test, something I've been talking about for a long time, that would really democratize the way Invest America has access. And then funds, I've been getting pitched for years on, oh, put your fund on blockchain or sell your fund into this ETF. Maybe you could talk a little Kelly about the possibilities around venture funds being more tradable like secondaries are. Is that on your roadmap? Obviously, there's demand for it. What would that, because I can tell you what that would do for my LPs, you know, Brad, Chamots, LPs, and previous funds. If you could come in and out of these funds the way you can come in and out of Anthropic, my Lord, that could be just incredible for folks who, I don't know, they have a divorce, they have a life event, you know, just a little more fluidity.
Starting point is 00:26:01 So there's been secondary fund trading for a long time. I think blockchain and tokenization makes it more efficient, that world will come. But the question we're asking ourselves now is, if you're an LP in a fund that's holding something as valuable as this, are you really interested in trading your fund position, or do you just want to get out of the big winner, that name? And our view is it's probably the latter. and in some cases, funds will come to us and say, we've got a vintage fund that has two companies in it that are 15 years old, and we can't clear that fund.
Starting point is 00:26:45 And so that's an application of liquidity to the market that we think is coming to the market. Are you worried at all over this next year about this idea of retail being exit liquidity for these three ginormous companies? Like, is there any risk? Like, how do you bucket the risk? How do you manage the risk? Yeah. What is the risk?
Starting point is 00:27:07 If something were to happen, what's the blowback? I was talking with Brad about this yesterday. We're watching these valuations and these multiples. We had this conversation at dinner last night and saying, wow, these are extraordinary. And people should come into this market. Extraordinary is a coded word for elevating. You know, it's okay, fine. It's a bubble, call it what it is.
Starting point is 00:27:31 You're saying they're high, the valuation is high. I think the retail investor coming into this space needs to look down market and look at interesting opportunities that aren't the things that are on CNBC every day and have access to them earlier. And we had a bunch of retail investors show up in 2018 and 2019 that wanted to be in SpaceX. And they're thrilled that they got in when the valuation was $30 billion. Yeah. And I think if the market opens up, that's what we'll be talking about.
Starting point is 00:27:59 What do I want to get into now that's not, you know, at the very, very top of the market getting ready to go. Also, Brad and Gavin, we're getting better. Shout out to Gurley. We're getting better at pricing these IPOs and not leaving money on the table. They're fully valued in most cases when they go public, yeah? Or in some cases. Oh, they're still mispriced. They're massively mispriced.
Starting point is 00:28:20 Well, no, we have seen some that have gone down, you know, after they go out. So, you know. Nothing good that anybody wants. I mean, listen. Well, anyway, what are you going? guys think? Are we closer to correctly pricing them? I mean, Gavin and I have been doing this 25 years. There are moments that the public market is undervalued relative to privates and moments where privates are undervalued relative to public. Right now, everything in the world of technology
Starting point is 00:28:46 is pretty fully valued, right? Like, you can't have the parabolic moves we've had and think that everything is cheap. That's not to say that we're not going to go higher. But when you've been punched in the faces many times as all of us have over the last 15 years in technology. We know it's a jagged line up and to the right. So for the retail investors, so long as they have staying power, so if you're going to launch a product, as long as the retail investor can stay in that product through the drawdown, they're going to do fine. The problem is most of them yolo at the top because everybody gets them all jimmied up and excited. And so they're, you know, they're levering up. 2x levered, you know, memory trades and all this shit that Gavin and I are.
Starting point is 00:29:33 There are 14 ETFs launching on the day of the SpaceX IPO that are levered ETFs into SpaceX at like whatever, $1.75 trillion. So this just tells me that there's a lot of signal. We may not be at the top, but we ain't at the bottom. We're bouncing along the top might be a fair description. You know, you've got to allocate accordingly. and that's what active management is about. If we do not, if we're not thinking about that,
Starting point is 00:30:02 when people are puking into their garbage cans at the start of the Iran war and the market is down, Gavin and I are looking at each other and saying, good God, these anthropic revenues are off the charts, we've got to get more dollars at risk, shove more onto the table in both anthropic and public market stocks. But then 75 days later, it's all changed, right?
Starting point is 00:30:25 Have you guys ever been in a market? market cycle where these moves are just so concentrated in time, where you take like a year or two's worth of moves and you compress it into 30 days, 60 days? I mean, this is nothing relative to 99 and 2000. Nothing. This is nothing relative to that. Describe, sometimes I, yeah, because sometimes they wake up. It was 99, 2000 like in terms of like a, if this is a roller coaster, what was that?
Starting point is 00:30:51 Yeah. And what was that? I mean, I don't, you know, this is, this is. like a this is a roller coaster that's like kind of a gentle sign wave. Yeah, it's fun. 99 was Vegas on a Friday night after way too many drugs. Okay? Like, it was out of control nuts.
Starting point is 00:31:11 CMGI had no revenue and the stock went from $2 to $2,000 over the course of, you know, six months. Quite a big. They buy Foxborough Stadium. They're on the cover of Time Magazine and they're out of business two years later, right? Like that is very different than Anthropic, Open AI, and SpaceX. These are extraordinarily real businesses. So I think the better compare is like 2021, right, where valuations get ahead of themselves
Starting point is 00:31:38 or they're at the top end of the range. We could have a normal run-of-the-mill consolidation in the public markets in the semi-index of 10 or 20%, which means high beta would be down 30 to 40%. And a lot of people who just got in would be panicking, right? but the people have been in for six months or three years would notice that that's just a blip. So I don't think it's at all like. Okay, I have a question for the three of you. Yeah, final question.
Starting point is 00:32:04 I have a final question. Take the top ten names, private companies off. Okay, forget those. You can't pick those. Give me a sub, you know, in the tens of billions, a few hundred billion private company that you could buy today a secondary in that you do not own that you would want to own. I'll start with you, Brad. Just go around the horn.
Starting point is 00:32:25 Something you don't own, but if you have the chance to buy secondary, you would. I mean, I take a company, you know, in that what I call inflection growth, Jamass, so these are companies, the thousand companies that are over $3 billion, but let's call it sub-50 billion. I think it's the trickiest area of the investing landscape because they're the beneficiaries of high valuations, yet they still have binary risk. Right. Right?
Starting point is 00:32:51 Like Anthropic, Open AI, SpaceX, I don't think these companies have binary risk, but there are a lot in, you know, in that bucket that do. And so, I mean, we own most of the ones I want to own. I can't give you one that we don't want to. If I want to own it, I generally own it. Yeah, it's a hard question. I'll give you. How about the last one you bought?
Starting point is 00:33:11 I'll give you one. I'd say like Sierra, Brett Taylor's company. What do they do? So they're building basically Salesforce, agent native. Got it. So sales, marketing, customer service agents that are agent native. I'll give you the downside and the upside. We also own a company called Parlo and the same space in Europe that I think is really interesting.
Starting point is 00:33:32 Downside, Open AI and Anthropics say, we're going to do this, and all of a sudden it eviscerates their hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. The upside on these businesses is that they actually have already built very sophisticated agentic layers, and that all these guys, meta, Google, SpaceX, come along and say we want to buy you, because we want to accelerate our path into agent. I'll give you the name that I was convincing today yesterday by Thomas LaFaunt, which was Revolut. You know, I had always kind of like, I had some early... Explain what they did. Like, I own some Coinbase. I own some Robin Hood.
Starting point is 00:34:08 We did all of that stuff. It was fine. Kind of ignored FinTech. And Thomas backstage gave me an incredibly... We were together, an incredibly compelling pitch for Revolut. And I actually went, and I was like, okay, show me what the Revulute share. prices in the secondary markets. I got kind of curious. Maybe I should pick up some. So that would be... What does Revolut do? Explain for the audience? It's a bank.
Starting point is 00:34:28 It's a bank. And what's interesting is it's a neobank that has a completely next generation stack. Kind of what Brad said is like that theme of you rebuild it in the modern era and you unbundle the incumbent, that has a lot of legs. And in a regulated market, that has a ton of legs. And so, you know, they're doing really well in Europe. They're coming to the United States. The founder seems to be just an absolute star. Tens of millions of customers, 14 lines of business. they're like a billion dollars in revenue. I got curious about that. I like that. Gavin, do you have shareholders that you've bought recently? No, I would just say
Starting point is 00:34:57 well, you know, two names that we've been involved in publicly as leading are ARIA and Drive Nets and they're both in the networking space and basically has data centers get more specialized and complicated. You you're going to have increasingly specialized
Starting point is 00:35:15 chips. It's called the disaggregation of inference and pre-fill and decode. And to make all of these chips to work together like a symphony and have the kind of the right chip for the right job at the right time, I do think we need to reinvent networking, and ARIA and DriveNet are coming at the problem at a very different way. And if you're an AI lab. You've been one of the earliest, I'll give you credit. I think that you framed this on one of the, on a podcast that I saw, which is there is an impending super cycle in infra networking, silicon. You've really been at the front of it. I buy into it
Starting point is 00:35:48 completely now, too. I have really, it's really, it's really good. It's really, I have a really, Any names? Neuro robotics in Europe. Neuro robotics is a company name. Yes. And URO? AI-powered logistics robotics. Love it.
Starting point is 00:36:06 They're not in the main strip of high-value real estate in Silicon Valley. They're in Germany. Quiet company, big investors, 100 million revenue, kicking ass. Love it. Jason. Well, I have a couple of thesis that I've been looking at. One is what is Elon helping put into space as the price goes down? And so we did direct on the cap table and SPV for VAST, which is building space stations,
Starting point is 00:36:36 and we think they're going to win. The other one is what I'll just call Uber 2.0. Gurley and I took a lot of notes on that, Brad, as well. And so we were able to do Zipline, and we put a small ticket size into Zipline as well. because if you can take the delivery costs down from $15 to $5 and then eventually two, that's going to just drive consumption massively and it's going to happen in the air. And these actual drones had such a false start that everybody gave up on the entire sector. And now it works.
Starting point is 00:37:04 And it was just a very simple innovation that Keller told me, which was the drone stays up in the air and drops a tether with the box in your burrito. If you grab the tether and you pull it, it just comes down. You don't have to land like this. giant robot in your backyard with blade spinning to kill your dog? Well, I think there's actually a very important, like, on Zipline, it's an amazing, it has done great things for the world. So my Atrides is also involved in Zipline, but Zipline started, so the hard thing is
Starting point is 00:37:36 to make anything autonomous work, you need to get it out into the world and gathering real-world data. This is how AI works. And it's hard to get approval to fly things around autonomously in American airspace. So Keller had the idea of we're going to go to African countries, and we were going to, you know, if a, we're going to help or deliver medicines to these small villages. And they focused on maternity. And they have cut the maternal mortality rate in some of these African countries by 90 to 95%. So you're in a small village.
Starting point is 00:38:10 There's a one midwife. There's an app. A woman goes into labor. They press a button. and, you know, an hour later, a Zipline drone drops a refrigerated package of modern mess and blood and everything that is needed. He did it for seven years. And it's had a huge impact on health outcomes in these African countries.
Starting point is 00:38:30 And now it's come to America. This is an incredible story. And I've basically now reconstructed my firm to do the barbell. I missed the seed investment. I turned him down because I was like, we don't invest on that continent. We don't have any insight into it. We don't understand it. and hardware's hard.
Starting point is 00:38:47 And he has the email, whatever, and I've stayed in touch with him. And he said, listen, I figured it out. And I said, hey, you know, I have the syndicate. Let me see if I can correct that mistake. May I invest? He said, you're my dream investor. I wanted you on this all time.
Starting point is 00:38:58 And it's just so important. No, no, we've been friends for all this time. And I've had him on the pod three times. And he said, what are you going to be on the cap table? And I said, you know what? Learning from you guys specifically, this late stage stuff, I'm like, well, I can do that. And here we are.
Starting point is 00:39:15 And on that note, yes, let's wrap up. Yes, well done, guys. Thank you, Kevin, thank you. Kelly, thank you, Brad. Thank you. Thank you.

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