All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI

Episode Date: November 16, 2024

(0:00) Bestie intros! (7:57) Election impact on Bitcoin, crypto, and fintech stocks (21:56) M&A and IPOs: What to expect in 2025 (39:52) Pharma advertising on cable tv: Should it be allowed? Is big pharma buying influence? (58:17) FBI raids Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home (1:05:51) Trump's transition picks: Strategy, highest upside/downside, and more Get tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!: https://allin.ticketsauce.com/e/all-in-holiday-spectacular Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/gensler-remarks-pli-s-56th-annual-institute-securities-regulation-111424 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10 https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/13/cpi-inflation-october-2024.html https://x.com/elerianm/status/1857297087010107728 https://x.com/chamath/status/1359248379377762310 https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/4763/text https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/statistics https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q2-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1848055198494728496 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/business/media/msnbc-fox-news-ratings-election.html https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1856208378541769076 https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/PDFFiles/Mark-Zuckerberg-Letter-on-Govt-Censorship.pdf https://www.cjr.org/the_trump_reader/trump-threatens-new-york-times-penguin-random-house-critical-coverage.php https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/business/fbi-seizes-polymarket-ceos-phone-electronics-after-betting-platform-predicts-trump-win-source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/polymarket-investigated-by-doj-for-letting-us-users-bet-on-platform https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-federal-court-upholds-ruling-letting-kalshiex-list-election-betting-contracts-2024-10-02 https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceo-shayne-coplans-apartment-seizes-phone-source-rcna180180 https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1856838409861386722 https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22 https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1856808022481539192 https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/30/polymarket-trump-election-crypto-wash-trading-researchers https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1852863585375977877 https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1857237886736715971 https://x.com/VivekGRamaswamy/status/1856725762130260383

Hey everybody welcome back to the all in podcast with us again today. Yawning from Milan your favorite the chairman dictator Chamath Paliha Patia you look a little tired my friend how you doing over there buddy. Hi left Monday I flew to Singapore. Who's on the ground for two days. I was on the ground for two days. And I flew here. I'm here for two days and then I go to London. Five days. I'm exhausted. You are on a whirlwind tour. I mean, I'm based I'm flying around the world. Literally flying around the world. Moving west. Man, right. I'm tired.

And this is all in service. I mean, at our age, you feel it. It hits differently when you when you pass 40. And I'm assuming this is 8090 business you're out there selling you selling you selling grok you selling 8090 you're out there doing BD little selling little closing and then I'm speaking at the Oxford Union on Wednesday. Okay. Okay. Well, that sounds fancy. Checking the bucket list. Okay, there you have it. And in his camo hat and in his election afterglow. Look at the glow. He is in that afterglow. He is post coitus here post election. Anybody got a cigarette? I need to light up a cigarette.

Light up a cigarette. That was a close one. I didn't think I was going to make it, but you did. Do you like my camo hat? J. Cal? This is a hat. Well, it says Trump fans. You look like Elmer Fudd.

What does it say? You're hunting libs. No, remember, remember when Tim Walz rolled out the cam camera on us and you said it was gonna win the election for Harris might, he might have a shot. Yes. Now I was wrong about that one. Be belly belly quiet. We got all the camo guys they voted for us hunting liberals. Nobody's gonna get this impersonation. But it's very good. It looks like is that Elmer Fudd? That's Elmer Fudd. Be belly belly quiet. We're hunting

liberals. It sounds like Mike Tyson. Well, I'm gonna mess up that. Jake Paul, how about I wear a different front pad every week for the next four years? Absolutely fantastic. I mean, the ratings on the show ones. I mean, all I care about at this point, I'm getting savage in any way possible. All I care about is ratings.

Now let's go. You're fine. Maga, get in the comments. Let's get these ratings up and with us, of course, the CEO of Oh, hello. Oh, hello, David Freeberg. How you doing? Thanks for having me again, J.K. All right.

Well, it's good to have you. It's good to be here. Yeah. How are you doing? Thanks for having me again, J. Cal. Thank you. All right. Well, it's good to be here. Yeah. How you doing? I'm chilling, man. You know, just nicely the executive producer to how you're on the show. Yes. I've been executive producing here. Well, it's always I'm always thinking about your best interests. I was hearing a little I heard you on a phone call before you said you had a perfect body. What was that in reference to my wife's name go Yes, she makes me go to the dermatologist where they she

examines your whole nude body to look for moles. So this morning I went in early to the dermatologist. She examined it. She said perfect. I said, does she have to wear sunglasses because you're just so white. Like it just like it's blinding the white woman. She can hazard pay the it's blindingly white. Poor woman. Did she get hazard pay? The poor, that poor dermatologist, my God. Actually, no, no, no, she's like, she's like, thank you for the experience.

But this is why we need to, in all seriousness, this is why, Saks, we have to legalize psychedelics. This poor woman has PTSD after that. We need to get her some. Get out of here. Get out of here. It was a wonderful examination. She was thrilled. I mean. All right. Okay. And of course, I'm

Jason Kelleckhannis. And, you know, there's been a lot of scuttlebutt sacks. I don't know if you know this, but comedy might still be legal here on the All in Podcast, but there's been a lot of scuttlebutt a lot of debate, a lot of energy, dare I say around, are we going to break the rules today? Finally? I don't know. We'll see anything's possible. People get a little sensitive sometimes with the car. Do I have to put my pronouns back in my zoom? Pronouns back in. She bought poly hapatia. Douche bag. Here we go.

You might not know this, but a lot of appointments are being made. Sax, did you know this? Are you aware that the appointments are being made? I'm aware. Yeah, it's happening. You'll have seen you've seen the flow of them. Well, I got a dump. I'm not going to say who sent these to me. But I actually got the next five or six announcement that Trump's going to make. I'm not going to say who gave to me. This is this bit has the potential to be so good. I'm so tired, but you've got me awake.

Okay. I'm awake. Well, here's our first one. Here's our first one. This is a very interesting one. Yeah, here it is. This is a statement from Donald J. Trump. It is my great honor to announce that Hunter Biden of Delaware will head a new department, the Bureau of founder mode procurement, founder mode procurement. You notice sacks dropped off, he doesn't want to have a reaction shot here. Next one up. This is interesting. Tony Hinchcliffe. I don't know if you know him. He has been appointed to a new role. He's the ambassador to Puerto Rico.

He's that's a good one. Chamath, actually, your wish has come true. You are now your sole duty is to ensure all executive branch knitwear is on point. The sweater inspector general, everybody's going to have perfect knitwear, knitwear, absolutely knitwear. And I just see, you know, that's a, that's a lower Piana cashmere sweater in that picture. Apparently, apparently I'm actually decided I would flip. I've gone full Maggie here. I am. I have been appointed as chief virtue signaller.

That I like. That I like. Every time you do the all-in-one contest. You're going to have stiff competition from Mark Cuban for that post. I know, I beat him out. I beat him out. Well, I beat Anthony.

Yeah, I went down to Marlon. He deleted it. He deleted all of his pro-Kamala tweets. Have you done the same? No, no, I haven't yet. You're going to have to work on that. If you want to get the part of it, look at the lusty eyes in this picture.

Yeah, I know. It's pretty great. That's really, it really, you have, you have, you have the virtue. You didn't want to just burrow yourself. Absolutely not. Absolutely not. Hey, free bird, you've been appointed. Here we go.

Uh, as Bobby Kennedy's whipping boy, you will be officially his little bench. Anything any innovation you come up with is officially blocked. And here he is. My great honor to announce David sacks is now the chief retribution officer. Congratulations. Well done. Retribution must be had, J. Cal. Payback is a bitch. There were a lot of people who were out of line. Just a little bit. A little bit.

They deserve to get smacked out a little bit. Graham's going to get his shoeshine box? Just on X. A little bit. Just a little bit. There's been a lot of talk about a holiday party, Freebring. You want to give us an update on the holiday party? Quick plug on the party. So the party is coming up in three weeks. The all-in holiday spectacular, Steve Aoki, Andrea Boat, Gary Richards, aka Destructo are going to be DJing several

sections a secret DJ set. I may say actually good idea. We will have chess challenges with Alex Botez. Several sections are sold out VIP is sold out. Draymond's joining us Draymond Green from the Warriors. He's gonna come into a little bit with us on stage. It'd be great. He's great. So should be great. Get your tickets at all in comm slash events. All right, let's get into it everybody. I just want to start with a little bit of finance here Bitcoin and finance stocks way up since the Trump win, which was now 10 days ago, Bitcoin peaked at 92,000.

Unbelievable. It's dropped down to 89, but obviously that's an all time high. And as we all know, we talked about it on the show, Trump heavily, heavily courted the crypto industry during his campaign. In addition to the Bitcoin news, since early August, a firm Robinhood PayPal Coinbase all up double or 50%. It's an extraordinary run. In July, Trump headlined a Bitcoin conference.

He laid out his plans. Number one, he was going to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. Here's the clip. One day one, I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint I didn't know it was that unpopular. I didn't know it was that unpopular. Let me say it again. On day one, I will fire Gary Gensler. There it is. Okay, enough with that. Technically, President can't fire the SEC chair, but he can appoint a new one when Gary's term ends in 2026. Or Gary could resign. Trump takes office. That happens sometimes. And folks are speculating Gensler has already made that decision to step down.

He put out a press release with a quote in it that a number of people took note of where he said it's been a great honor to serve with them, the people who work at the SEC doing the people's work and ensuring our capital markets remain the best in the world. Trump also said the federal government will never sell, never ever sell its Bitcoin holdings, which they own through criminal assets, as you know. And number three, he said he would create a Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council where Trump said, quote, the rules will be written by people who love your industry, not heat or industry.

And he also advocated that all future bitcoins would be minted in America. I don't know that he gets to make that choice. But they have it free burgundy thoughts here on the crypto market and this incredible bull run here we've seen in the last, you know, 10 days and then before that couple. I mean, I think like you said, it's not limited to crypto crypto is one market of several that have been significantly affected by the outlook based on Trump's election.

I think that Trump's election has a couple of key features that are changing market dynamics. One is folks kind of view some of his policies to be obviously stimulatory with lower tax rates and more deregulation. This is theoretically going to drive up investment and economic growth. The deregulatory nature on its own benefits markets that have been encumbered by regulatory oversight and regulatory challenges like crypto, finance and fintech. So those types of businesses are clearly going to benefit or expected to benefit significantly by being able to launch products more quickly and have features and ways that they can generate

revenue that they might be challenged to do under the current regulatory schemas. And then there's also this element of kind of things being inflationary, the feature of tariffs, if we don't get spending cut fast enough, there's an effect on market. So we're still seeing 10-year treasury sit at about 4.5%, up from 3.5%, which is where we were right around the rate cut beginning in September. And remember, since those rate cuts began in September,

we've cut 75 basis points. And we're still seeing the kind of 10-year treasury hold high, which kind of implies that there's expected to be persistent inflation. In fact, the October inflation number accelerated again. So it's back up, not going down. I think it went up to 2.6% up from 2.3% the month prior. These general kind of effects that are predicted from the Trump policy plans is having an effect in different markets. Obviously, in equities,

we're seeing more kind of risk seeking, risk taking. And then in the bond markets, because of the four and a half percent treasury yield, there's a really interesting dynamic. And I kind of sent this, this link out yesterday. But if you look at the spread on yields between U S treasuries, which have historically been kind of considered and talked about and are deemed the risk free rate and the yield that corporates have to pay to borrow money, we haven't seen a spread this low in 26 years. So it's a 17 year low for the spread between the yield that companies that issue junk bonds have to pay from treasuries. And it's a

26 year low for credit grade bonds. So this means the market is either more risk seeking, meaning they're looking for more yield and they're going into corporates because they feel like there is a higher probability that these companies are gonna be successful in the future. They're not gonna have higher default rates, et cetera. So the market is becoming much more risk seeking.

Or the alternative is that parts of the market are reassessing the risk free nature of treasuries themselves. If spending doesn't get under control, the treasury market appetite is decreasing. So there's this kind of spread that's shrunk in the last couple of months. So we're seeing capital flooding into the markets for risk seeking assets. And this is obviously affecting crypto equities and bond markets all across the board. And we'll talk a little bit about IPO and M&A later. Great. Chamath, your thoughts? Aside from yum yum?

I mean, yum yum, you could say it. It's gonna be just say it. No, I mean, look, what did I say at the beginning of the year was gonna be the biggest risk asset? Winning trade? Yeah, it's great. Bitcoins great. Lord, I haven't seen you this afternoon. What made you more happy getting to mom on and spending time with your white truffle dealer? Or watching Bitcoin break 90k? which one was more exciting for you?

Because you know, honestly, you know what I think about? I actually think about all the Bitcoin I sold. Yeah, you know, I had a bunch of Bitcoin in my funds when I managed outside capital. You know, that's a, I don't know, a three or four billion dollar mistake in growing now because my partners at the time capitulated and I wanted to be a good team member and we distributed and it was profitable but obviously I shouldn't have sold it. Would have made them a lot more money. And then I think about like I bought some land. I remember Tahoe. It was in the Wall Street Journal.

I'm sure you can find it, but yeah. How much is that worth now? Probably a couple hundred million dollars, maybe more. Rough trade, rough trade. But you do have Bitcoin holdings. Can I ask you a question? Why do you say sold Bitcoin as opposed to converted Bitcoin into dollars?

Like when you think about Bitcoin, just as a participant, do you think about Bitcoin as a dollar denominated asset that you go and buy Bitcoin and then you're eventually going to sell it, turn it back into dollars and use the dollars or are you like, what do you think about the purest kind of idea that Bitcoin should be the de facto currency and store value in the future and the dollar doesn't matter and we shouldn't necessarily be talking about the value of Bitcoin in dollar denominated terms as something I'm gonna eventually turn it back into.

It hasn't happened yet. And so until it happens, I think you have to view it as like a very good gold proxy, but it's a largely dollar denominated asset. it's a largely dollar denominated asset. Now, why do you see it going the other way? Like, so a lot of folks thought that as a safe haven, it should do well when there's a negative economic outlook. But it has traded the last couple of years kind of correlated.

Now it's totally it's a totally correlated asset. I mean, yeah, there will be a point. And it's probably in our lifetime, where it is an independent asset, and a non speculative store of value. There will be that day, but that day is not now. And I think it's very important to see the conditions on the field as they are versus what you wish it to be. And the reason is that it allows you to risk manage more appropriately. Because if you don't see it, then when something happens to the dollar complex, good or bad, or when something happens to

rates, good or bad, or when something stimulative happens, good or bad, you're not going to react properly if you're in the business of managing it as a risk asset. So if you're in the set it and forget it bucket, and there are some people, I think it's great. None of these conversations matter. But like most people, you're probably going to be motivated to do something. And I think if you're motivated to do something or you have FOMO that stimulates you to do something,

whatever the psychology is that leads you to action, it's probably important to just view things as they really are versus how you wish them to be. And so I think the purists may eventually be right. I think they will be right at some point in my lifetime, but they're not right now. And that's why these things are correlated. And you should act appropriately. The other the other thing I'll say just broadly about the market is, I think that there's a tremendous

amount of optimism about the economy. I think that's why you see risk spreads get crushed. Definitely. Yeah. And I think that as long as we see the kind of prognostications that the Trump administration is putting out, I think people are going to be mostly bullish. I think the way that this trade turns around is when something actually breaks in terms of the inflation picture, or in terms of the deficit picture. And if those things look like going into 2025, that President Trump's actions are not gonna be able

to course correct it, then I think you're gonna see people go massively risk off, which I think will not be great for markets, obviously. But right now, we're not in that point. And you don't think that tenure reflects that already at four and a half percent? I mean, that's showing some degree of inflation and concern about the deficit. Right? It's like, yeah.

I think the tenure could be at 7%. Yeah. What does four and a half percent mean? I mean, if you're going you're gonna run 8% of GDP level deficits for the next four or five or six years, yeah, you're gonna have the 10 year at 7 to 8%. That's just mathematical. Right. Sacks your thoughts on crypto before we get into IPOs and M&A?

Yeah, just on crypto, the House Republicans already passed a framework for crypto regulation earlier this year. It actually got 71 Democrats to join it. It was called the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act or FIT 21. And it would classify digital assets like crypto as commodities regulated by the CFTC if the blockchain they run on is, quote, functional and decentralized, that's the key requirement. If their blockchain is functional but not decentralized, then they would be considered

securities and fall under the purview of the SEC. I think the crypto industry basically wants a really clear line for knowing when they're a commodity and they want commodities to be governed like all other commodities by the CFTC. So that's what the Republican bill would do. I think with the Republicans now winning the Senate, the prospects for that bill to get enacted are now greatly improved, especially because Sherrod Brown, who used to run the banking committee, just lost to Bernie Moreno. This was a seat in Ohio.

Elizabeth Warren is still going to object to this legislation, but she's just going to have way less influence. Like you said, it's not clear that Gary Gensler is going to be sticking around very long at the SEC. So look, the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for. And the days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without

clarifying what the rules are that he is prosecuting, those days are about to be over. So I think this is why the crypto markets are rallying. And so to your point, if it's centralized or partially centralized, you're going to be a security. If you're decentralized, anybody can join the network. No one person controls the network. And I guess most people would consider that Bitcoin versus say Ripple, which is partially decentralized, but largely centralized.

And that's going to be, I guess, the new rules of the road. In addition to that, there are new rules that are being enforced that hopefully Trump's 21 passes, right? This bill is called 21. But I think much, much higher likelihood that it or something like it now can get through the Congress. Yeah. And then there's also legislation that's already been enacted. That's there's multiple ways and multiple paths, but accredited investors, there's going to be a path to becoming an accredited investor with a test. So that is something that is also on the docket. We'll see if it happens. Let's talk about IPOs and M&A. Yum, yum boys.

Just a level set here with the audience. Here's the number of IPOs per year. And as you can see, the last three years have been some of the lowest since 2008 and 2009, the great recession, for those of you who are old enough to remember it. And if you look at VC, the number of distributions have been absolutely on the floor for the past three years. In fact, if you look at the distribution from 2022 through 2024, those three years combined, it's been 14% of the peak Zerp era. When in 2021, we had $710 billion in distribution here. So the backroom buzz is that Donnie from Queens is going to make M&A great again. Couple of reasons there, sacks, the wrath of Lena cons coming to an end mag seven, sitting on massive amounts of cash and that cash is growing as people have laid people off and they're focused on getting fit. Obviously, we all know the Fed did another quarter point cut last week, although some people maybe don't know that because it seems to have gotten lost in the election news and

because it seems to have gotten lost in the election news. And psychologically, I think everybody's feeling very optimistic, so maybe these IPOs are back on the menu. Chamath, I don't know if you saw it, but Klarna just filed for their IPO. That's a Swedish fintech company. They were kind of the pioneers in buy now, pay later. What are the other IPOs we could see? File in 2025, Databricks, Stripe, Wiz, Canvava plaid rippling an air table there's a long

shot that people have been buzzing about i don't have any inside information but people have been speculating spacex could ipo starlink their starlink unit and if you want to get really crazy chamath maybe there's a long shot that sam altman jumps the fence and decides he's going to take open ai public during this window that people expect to be opening. What do you think Chamath? What's going to happen here in terms of M&A and IPOs in 2025? I think it's going to still be pretty subdued. So I don't okay,

I don't I don't think that you're going to see these crazy M&A deals that I think everybody is expecting. I also don't anticipate a lot of these big companies going public at least in the first half of the year. And the only reason I say that is I just think that like this year and the first half of next year, what's the difference? The IPO market is what the IPO market is. And if the 10 year is back to four and a half, 5%, that's not a compelling strategy for some SaaS company or some internet business that didn't take an opportunity to go

public when rates were at zero. So if you just look mathematically at what the actual fair value of these companies should be, I don't know, it's not like such a great IPO market. Then on the M&A side, if all you're doing is waiting for LinaCon to not be there, to me, I think that that betrays what M&A is supposed to be, which is you're supposed to underwrite some industrial logic from first principles where things are very accretive, and very accretive things should not hang by a thread on the emotional regulation or dysregulation of the FTC Commissioner. of the FTC commissioner. So I kind of think that you would have seen some of this stuff already as well, if the industrial logic was so high. And again, when rates are non-trivially high,

I just think that it's not the easiest thing in the world to pull off like a really big M&A event, nor is it a really easy thing to pull off to pull off a huge IPO. When again, there's a reason why Warren Buffett has $325 billion sitting in T-bills, making 4.5% a year. He owns more T-bills than the United States government.

He's making about $15 billion a year in interest. When you can do that with absolutely no risk, again, relative to stocks at least, what is this IPO going to give you? Jamal's right, like the 10 years at a half percent, you're basically paying 20 times cash flow to own a risk free bond. The US Treasury bond. Or you can pay 23 times to own a totally risky asset. Yeah, it's 30 times to own the S&P 500 right now.

It's nuts. Yeah, it's but but there is a lot of risk seeking shifting happening Chamath, right? So I mean, we talked about like some of the crypto stuff, some of the fintech stuff, deregulation, that the PE might seem high today, but if you forecast out 10 years for some of these businesses in a deregulated, de-taxed environment, or reduced tax, reduced regulation environment, that the earnings should accelerate in a way that outpaces the multiple you're getting today, right? So I mean, this is part of why some of the fintech companies are ripping right now, why some of the finance companies are ripping right now. If under Trump

and the Republican control of the House and Senate, laws don't pass and regulations get reduced, theoretically, earnings are going to rip. And you should pay a higher multiple today because you're actually buying these things at eight to 10 times earnings five years from now. So there seems to be some risk appetite there. But I do agree with your mouth on the M&A point. If you think about what's gone on over the last couple of years, big hold on a second, can I ask you a question? Do you think that regulation is the reason why the SaaS companies have never made a dollar profit? No, no, I'm not talking about SaaS. I'm not talking about SaaS. I'm talking about industrial companies. No, the fintech market, right. So we were talking about fintech and some of these assets earlier. Some of these equities that have been very, it's a very narrow part of the economy, right? Like, if you look at broad, like on a broad base

basis, the 10s and 10s of trillions of dollars of market cap that exists. I do agree with you that deregulation benefits a bunch of those companies. But it benefits sort of the non tech businesses more than the tech businesses, the tech businesses right now are relatively lightly regulated. Yeah, I would think that it benefits pharma businesses, it benefits ag businesses, it benefits real estate companies, it benefits ag businesses, it benefits real estate companies, it benefits a whole a whole swath of the

economy. But we've started to see that rerating. And maybe we'll see a lot more. So maybe Jason, the more nuanced answer to your question is the kind of M&A that I think you want to see, that I mean, let's face it that we all want to see here, because we all have a vested interest, which is really specifically tech M&A. I don't think that any of this deregulation particularly accelerates that. But maybe a more nuanced take on this would

be that these other more regulated parts of the economy could do well and catch up to some of the earnings potential or the forward pricing of the tech businesses. But again, now you get into this weird trade where you can buy steady cash flowing businesses that can grow in valuation as fast as a as a fast growing but money losing tech business. But then you trade both of those two things off and it has effectively the same yield as a 10 tenure. What do you do? Yeah, yeah, I you know, I, I think there's a lot of backed up inventory, where venture capital is boards and founders, people

who control and make these decisions on M&A, if they would sell the company to a larger company, I think there's a lot of exhaustion in the market. And that will drive the capitulation on valuation. What do you think the valuations will be? Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I mean, they'll be haircuts, but I'm watching it right now. I mean, you think Warren Buffett's going to take 325 billion of cash?

No, no, but I do think- He won't even buy his own stock. So what do you think he's going to pay in terms of a multiple? I think it will be more like Salesforce or Microsoft or Google or Amazon getting off the sidelines because they've looked at and said, you know what, the juice ain't worth the squeeze. We might as well put our efforts and our capital into buying big hardware and building new products and services. But if they think, Hey, I got a chance of pulling this through,

I'm sitting on all this cash. What if I hit another YouTube and Instagram, you know, really great acquisitions that were transformative for those two companies, meta would not be where it is right now, Facebook, you know that well, Trimof, if they hadn't gotten Instagram, and certainly, you know, Friedberg, as an alumni of Google, if they didn't get YouTube, it would be a completely different picture for that company right now. I think there's a lot of those type of acquisition. I think there's a lot of those acquisitions that

have been sitting there waiting. And I'm watching the secondary markets to your question. What's the discount going to be? The I think there's a lot of those acquisitions that have been sitting there waiting and I'm watching the secondary markets to your question. What's the discount going to be the discount was last year, I kid you not 70 8090% off the last round for SaaS companies and this year it's 20 or 30. I'm seeing this when I'm getting offers to buy our shares in some private SaaS companies, some private fintech companies. And then I also think if you're a CEO, and you watch Robin Hood,

Uber, Reddit, door dash, and Instacart, those five have actually after getting a little bit of a gas kicking, when they first went out, they have all rebounded massively. And for the people who held on to their Reddit shares, Robin Hood shares, Uber shares, they have been rewarded massively, massively for having faith in you know, through this storm. So I think those two things, the capitulation of all these boards and founders are going to say,

you know what, let's take the haircut, let's go public. And let's tell our story and see if we can make it work as a public company. And then the people who feel one step weaker than that, I think they want to cash their chips in they've been in some of these investments, Jamal, it's year 1112 1314 for some of these private companies, there is capitulation on those boards, people are exhausted. So that I just I'm going to, I'm going to take the other side of the argument on this one.

I'll kind of play along. So I think, and I'll disagree a little bit for a couple different reasons. These big tech companies, the ones that have had, you know, media businesses or because remember, there's tech that's tech, right? Nvidia does not have a media business. But there's been a conversation over the last couple of years, where we need to break up big tech has been kind of part of the conversation with the Dems. And now the Republicans are coming in and they're saying the same thing,

we got to break up big tech. So there, I think are a few of these companies, Google being one of them that are very much handicapped right now with respect to what kind of M&A they can do without dealing with the regulatory sledgehammer coming down on them. So I don't think that those guys are buyers, J. Cal. I don't think that Google's in a place right now

where they can go out and make a bunch of acquisitions. They're gonna do everything they can to avoid the regulatory sledgehammer that's coming their way. First it was coming from the Dems, now it's coming from the new administration. There's a bunch of other companies that don't really fit that bill,

like Microsoft probably doesn't fit that bill, Nvidia, Adobe, maybe they'll make some acquisitions, but I don't think it's as simple as, well, we'll sell at a low price, we'll buy at a low price. I'm just not sure they really need to do that right now. I completely agree with you. I completely agree.

I think that these big tech companies will need to pay a pound of flesh for the deplatforming and the censorship that they did. And our skill continuing to do. Well, this is a perfect time if we're gonna go to the political angle to bring you in, Sax, what are the vibes? My perception is Trump likes to win. Trump wants to see the economy soar. That is his platform. He's

a business guy. I think he wants to see fluidity. I know JD has been not a fan of like the Googles, etc. So maybe you could help us navigate this. Who's right here? What's the possibility of M&A becoming more vibrant in a Trump administration? Well, there's no question that in general, President Trump wants to have the most vibrant economy we can have. And I think to that end, you're going to see the end of this era of deceleration of regulatory capture and lawfare. I think all those things are over. I think that equities that have been straining

or tamped down under the weight of these abuses, you see them ripping now. For example, Tesla, it's gone from roughly 250 to 320, a share since the election, and you could call that the lawfare discount. I mean, that basically is the discount on Tesla stock because the market was pricing in the risk of retaliation. If the Republicans lost, there's a widespread belief

that the Democrats would go after Elon and his company. So you can actually measure the lawfare discount based on Tesla stock. And some part of regulation, right? Cause there's a lot of regulations around self-driving rocket ship launches all those things he's involved in there's a lot of regulation there there was this crazy thing where they they made some regulator made him put a headset on a seal did you see this to test the effect on the sound of loud noises the sonic

sonic booms this poor seal do you see this poor seal had like a headset on? No, honestly, I don't, don't do that to Freeberg. Put the photo up. No, don't put it on the screen. Put it in post. Don't put it on the screen. I don't want Freeberg. Don't put it on the screen. Freeberg is gonna.

Anyway, so they subjected this poor seal to exactly the thing that they were worried would harm seals. In any event, the seals seemed totally fine. It didn't freak out at all. They tortured seals to make a point. I got it, Yeah. Anyway, it's really crazy. So yeah, look, this crazy. What about

this JD? It helped us navigate. I know JD is the VP. And then you have Trump is the CEO. Chamath pointed out maybe there's a little on the GOP. Anger, resentment, residual. Because of the, you know, banning of Trump from YouTube and some of these other platforms, do you think that makes its way into M&A or not? I guess, like, let me be specific to J Cal's question, not all tech companies are the same in that point of view, right? And so like, tech M&A generally is a thing. But

specifically, the companies that have had social media platforms, maybe kind of in a different lens from a regulatory perspective, is that fair? Yeah, I mean, look, I think that not everything Lena Cahn did was bad. In fact, she definitely has some fans among the populist Republicans. And, you know, some of them who've spoken out

on her behalf in various areas have been JD Vance Matt gates as well She did do some good things specifically. She was willing to take on the big tech companies I mean companies like Amazon Apple Google Frankly, they just had a free ride for the last couple of decades or they're allowed to do anything and she came in and said There's a new sheriff in town and she was actually willing to Apply pressure on them to not engage in anti-competitive tactics. So I think she deserves credit for that. I think she did change the conversation.

I think that we've talked about on previous pods that perhaps there was not as targeted and surgical an approach was used. And as a result of that, it did have a chilling effect on M&A. And so it hurt the, you know, the small tech environment. And so I think that we need to fix that part of it. But I hope that whoever replaces Lena con will continue to apply pressure to big tech because they are monopolies, and they will abuse their power if they're allowed to, and they need to be controlled. Sax, if you had to handicap the probability of a lawsuit or some kind of attempt to dismantle Google and Facebook, would those be the two companies at the top of your list?

And how would you handicap that? So my view is that Google should be broken up. There's abundant reasons for that. There's at least three monopolies in that company. There's the search business, the advertising business, and YouTube. I think they should be busted up. What are the odds that that happens? It's hard to say, but what are the odds that that is pursued in the next administration in some capacity or at least investigated? I'd say, hi. I'd say Facebook or Meta less so. I don't see the compelling need to, to bust them up. But quite frankly, I think the issue that Meta is going to face is just there were a lot of abuses in terms of censoring the free speech rights of Americans.

Now, I don't think that was all the company's idea. I think a lot of pressure was put on the company by the Biden administration. I think they wanted to do the right thing and just didn't show enough backbone. I think Elon showed- Well, Zuckerberg's been clear that he regrets it. Yeah, so I think his-

And he's bent the knee now. He's like, listen, I'm not going to do it again. Yeah. He published a letter and maybe it was done to some degree to inoculate himself against the results of this election. But I'd say to his credit, it wasn't clear at all who was going to win the election when he put out that letter. And he basically said that he regretted the fact that Metta had gone along with the censorship

requests by the Biden administration. And he specifically referred to that whole Hunter Biden story that got censored in 2020. That was election interference. It was a completely true story by the New York Post. It got censored by Big Tech at the request of these 51 former intelligence officials who were lying through their teeth, claiming it was Russian disinformation. So he clearly regrets going along with that. In any event, I think there are better ways of handling the speech issue on social networks than busting up Facebook. But I do think though that Congress should investigate or continue investigating what went wrong there and what

exactly is the involvement of the intelligence community and the deep state in the censorship requests that we saw exposed by the Twitter files? Remember. Can I bring up something maybe tangential and you can react to this? Just speaking of kind of like censorship and then just the media complex that we have. I saw today that Trump filed like a 10 or $15 billion lawsuit against the broadcast networks. And maybe this is old news, but I may and maybe I just saw the news or a headline go by on x. I don't know. Yeah, I saw it as well. Yeah, didn't make it back. And then

separately with Bobby Kennedy's nomination to HHS, one of the things that he has said that he wants to put an end to is the advertising that pharma does on these broadcast stations, if you put these two things together, where you deprive these folks of their largest revenue source, and at the same time, they have to sort of like answer for censorship or manipulating content. It does do you think that that changes the landscape of how all these companies behave in the future? Or how do you think that that plays out?

Yeah, I mean, absolutely. So all right, let's take each one of those. So on the broadcasters, we've talked about this before, the big broadcast networks, and their affiliates receive free spectrum licenses from the FCC and they get some of the most valuable spectrum there is through those licenses in exchange for certain requirements that their broadcasters are in the public interest. Namely, they have to follow a fairness doctrine, which is supposed to mean that you give equal time to both candidates. Well, in the final weeks of this campaign, we saw some really egregious abuses. NBC brought on Kamala Harris, but not Donald Trump, for a very favorable segment

on Saturday Night Live the week before the election. Separately, you saw 60 Minutes deceptively edit an interview with Kamala Harris where they actually took one of her answers from one question and put it as the answer to another question. I mean, really deceptive. So you have a couple of examples with both CBS and NBC, which were violating the equal time requirement, were clearly working on behalf of the Kamala Harris campaign. And when you look at the coverage itself,

this election was the most unequal in terms of favorable coverage. It was something like a 60 point difference. So something like Kamala Harris received 80 something percent favorable coverage and Trump received something like 85% negative coverage. So there's no way- Who's that according to, do you know?

Yeah, it's a report by Brent Bazzell's media watchdog group. It's been around forever and it's been recording this stuff in every election for the last 30 years. In any event, I think that there's a very strong argument that the broadcasters have not been fair. That's a violation of their license requirements. And we should be reevaluating their spectrum, especially because it's not the highest best use of this though. Sax is that they have already been demolished. I don't know if you saw, but a bunch of the anchors at CNN are not renewing because their advertising

is so far off that like Chris Wallace, I think was making eight million a year, nine million a year. And he just said, I'm going to go do podcasts because I think they lowballed his offer. And if they lose all that advertising from Pharma, which I think in some of these networks is a third or offer. And if they lose, well, there's a bunch of that advertising from pharma, which I think in some of these networks is a third or half. And that's all networks that's from Fox to CNN and every MSNBC,

everybody combined, if they lose advertising from pharma, it's over. Like these those news networks are going to lose half their revenue overnight. That would be a that would be a deathblow to your question. Yeah, well, let me get back to that. So just on CNN and MSNBC, you're absolutely right that they're announcing a bunch of layoffs. Their ratings are destroyed.

I think they're down. MSNBC ratings are down like 50% since the election. What that tells me is that their own audience- Wait, sorry, since the election? Since the election. Is that 50%? Yeah. Oh my God. And what that tells me is that their viewer base, who's been tuning in for years to all of

this TDS, has now realized that they were deceived by MSNBC and they've lost credibility even with their most fervent supporters. So there's no question that CNN, MSNBC, they're hurting. Now, JCal, just to make one small modification, they do not receive, they do not have spectrum licenses from the FCC, right? Because they're cable networks. So they're in kind of a different bucket. They don't have to abide by the fairness doctrine that CBS and NBC do, right? But they have different problems. And to your point about pharma, there's absolutely no reason to be allowing pharma advertisements on these TV networks. The fact of the matter is the people who are viewing, those networks can't buy, you can't buy pharmaceuticals without a prescription, right?

It's up to doctors to write you the prescription. This is why most countries, most Western countries prohibit pharma advertising on the networks. I think Bobby Kennedy has a very strong argument that it would serve the public interest not to allow this. We don't allow advertisements for tobacco, right? So I guess the thing that doesn't make sense to me, Sachs, is you're so such a first amendment absolutist and free speech app absolutist, isn't it? And I'm not saying this is my opinion, but you

know, my my challenge to you would be is tell me about freedom of speech and expression in relation to being able to do advertising for these problems. Well, I mean, aren't they aren't consumers smart enough to figure it out? The point of the advertising is, I think is not at the end of the day to influence consumers, because consumers can't buy pharmaceuticals. They have to go to a doctor. Well, that's what they say in it. Ask your doctor about this. The purpose of the advertising is to buy favorable coverage. That's the point. And there are many

examples. Oh, okay. Explain that. Well, there are many examples of people who've worked in these networks saying that they had a story that was negative about pharma companies. And that story got spiked because the pharma companies are the biggest advertisers. In fact, I think it was there was a story about Fox News and who who was the guy Roger Ailes? Well, there's been a number of stories. I know what you're talking about. There's been stories about Anderson Cooper.

Who's the the guy who does international coverage on the weekends? GPS is the name of a show. I'm drawing I can't remember right now. Fareed Zakaria. Thank you Fareed Zakaria. Yes. I think a bunch of those shows were like literally brought to you by Pfizer brought to you by these things. And so those shows potentially would just go away. And then there were there was reporting on the number of times they would report on those companies. And it showed they didn't. So what do you think freeberg of should pharma companies be allowed to

advertise to consumers to ask their doctors to ask them about Viagra? What's your take? He's thinking for those of you at home listening, he's giving a deep thought. Well he's thinking, J.K. Let me just say that I think there is a free speech issue that has to be weighed, okay? So I don't want to be totally dismissive of that. However, I think that the Viagra example is on the far end of the spectrum of a drug that by advertising it, you could actually get consumers to request it from their doctor.

I don't think most drugs are like that. I think my contention would be that the real reason they're paying all this massive advertising is not to influence consumers, but to influence the coverage that they get. There is something very corrupt about that. And I think that Bobby Kennedy has a really strong point that if you were to remove that incentive that many people inside the industry have admitted exists, then you would get much fairer coverage

of these pharma companies, and we would actually get to be a healthier country because you wouldn't allow them to basically manipulate the public debate. So that's the argument. Freeberg, you want to chime in on it or no? I mean, I feel like there's some market correction that takes place here, which we're already seeing, which is the consumers are moving away.

We just talked about moving away from cable news, moving away from legacy media. They don't trust it. The trust is at an all-time low. I don't know if it's necessarily the government's job to determine who advertises what, where, how, and why. I don't like the government having that sort of degree of authority, generally speaking, because it can then lead into the government having overreach and oversight to control entities that maybe are competitive with the government in different ways. I do believe that the beef with big tech is a result of big tech's influence over the population where big government wants to have that degree of influence over the population. So it's actually a battle between government and private entities

over who can influence the population and who has the ability to control the narrative. And I think that the general concept that the government should be determining who advertises where, what, how, and why is not a great one. And I don't think that consumers are dumb. I think that consumers are showing their proclivity for independent media and independent news sources because they don't trust the influence that's been kind of imparted upon these other channels and these other sources and they're moving away from it. So I don't know if it's as much kind of a regulatory question and big pharma needs to be affected. I think that the market to some degree does its job. I don't think the consumers are dumb. I will also just kind of counter one of Sachs' points.

I think that there are drugs, like multiple sclerosis is a good example. There was a drug introduced a couple of years ago called Octavis and it was a new therapy for multiple sclerosis that is extremely effective. It's a really a big step change in biological therapies. And a lot of people that were on MS and have had MS for decades,

take kind of old school drugs that maybe aren't that effective. So to create awareness, and they're not regularly seeing their doctors. They may not go in and see their doctor every year like they're supposed to. So the pharma companies are creating awareness that there's this new modality

and this new product that could help them to get them to go into the doctor's office. So I don't I don't want to say that these are all like evil, you know, trying to control and influence like there are good drugs that come to market, they're beneficial to people and people don't know about them. How else are they supposed to get that word out if they're not able to advertise? So I don't think that it's all like negative and all malicious, you know, kind of behavior and manipulation of media. People we all have the resources, we all have the resources,

we all have the capacity, and we are all likely very frequently going to doctors. Most people don't. And so most people that have chronic disease or have health issues, there has to be a mechanism for, you know, making them aware of new options, new alternatives, new products that are coming to market. So I'm not super like putting my foot down saying pharma companies shouldn't be able to advertise, shouldn't be able to buy media out there and put ads up and tell people about stuff that they've discovered or that they've invented

that's been regulated, that's been tested, that's been approved and that works and can help save lives. I think they should have the freedom and ability to do that. So I think there's a bit of a nuance here to how this gets handled is my point. Yeah, I mean, look, I'm not saying that there's no benefit at all to letting pharma companies advertise some

products. I think the question you have to ask is, why is so much money going from pharma to these news outlets? Because most of the products, you know, that you generally can't buy them. I'll tell you the reason. The reason is that the pharma companies make so much money off of government funded insurance programs Let me just state that again If we only had private insurance or if consumers had to pay for their drugs and their therapies themselves The cost of drugs would go way down The reason the cost of drugs has gone way up is because so much of the government insurance

programs don't negotiate drug prices. And there are all these middlemen and all these people that sit in between that have been regulated through regulatory capture into the system that has allowed an incredible inflation in the cost of drug prices. Therefore, there is a lot of money to kind of continue the capture of the system. I don't think that it is right. And I think that the free market generally or having a less regulatory capture market will allow an appropriate kind of pricing of therapies and appropriate kind of adjustment in the market, which doesn't exist today. So, so much money to kind of keep the market the way it is needs to kind of keep flowing. That's my sense of this. I don't think it's about bad drugs need to kind of stay in play.

As much as it is, this market's been allowed to inflate and the cost of health care and the cost of drugs has inflated in a way that's simply untenable and it doesn't make sense and I think that it's because of regulatory capture and I think that that needs to change and I'm hopeful that it does. That's the second reason then to get the this pharma money out of advertising because you're basically explaining it as like a self looking ice cream cone. But again, there's another reason as well, I think that explains the sheer magnitude, which is its influence buying its influence peddling. Yeah. So to your point, Saxo, that was what I was about to bring up. You know, there it's

very subtle. You're not going to have somebody at NBC or CNN or Fox come down and tell Tucker Carlson or Rachel Maddow or Anderson Cooper, hey, you can't cover the story. But there is a bunch of self censorship that occurs whoever it is, they'll just avoid that story. Because these anchors are getting paid or have been previously paid 10 10 million 25 million a year. Do you think they're going to like really go hard at Pfizer or somebody like that? No, they're just not going to I've been inside the machine. really go hard at Pfizer or somebody like that? No, they're just not going to I've been inside the machine. They just avoid those stories. Okay, let's keep going through the docket here. I think it was pretty good conversation. I know, by the way, I just wanted to say to the Trump administration, if you want the economy to rip, let m&a rip. But my one caveat is, is

a really simple way to do this. If you're under a trillion dollar valuation, let those companies buy and sell each other because then we could go from a mag seven to a mag 70. That's where I think actually it makes the most sense if you actually are concerned about the consolidation of power in the top seven, let them sit out acquiring more great companies and let the people under that who are the mid market cap companies, let them do the buying and selling because then you might have a mag eight, nine and 10 show up. That's not talking my book. It would be better for me, Friedberg to let the mag seven participate because they can pay

higher prices. They're not price sensitive, but I do think the mid market companies buying and selling would make a healthier environment for competition. So you think it's sorry, you think it creates more competition, which will that'll benefit consumers and grow the economy? Well, look at it this way. If somebody wants to buy, let's say Waymo gets spun out, somebody wants to buy it. If Amazon can't buy it, and Tesla can't buy it. And Amazon can't buy it. But they could merge with Uber, Lyft, door dash, you know, all those mid Airbnb, if those companies

could consolidate, can you imagine what would happen if Amazon couldn't buy those companies, but you could see Waymo spin out and then partner with DoorDash and partner with Airbnb, and you had that as one company. Now you got a $400 billion company that is nipping on the heels, that is aggressively competing with Amazon. That's what you want in the market is more competition for the mag seven. You don't want the magnificent seven to run away with it. And we could create the eighth, ninth and 10. So just imagine that freeburg there was a another trillion dollar company like I actually think Tesla just became a trillion dollar company again. So now that they're up in those ranks great. Don't let Tesla don't let Amazon, etc. Nvidia

buy more companies that those that mergers and acquisitions and that strength happen under the trillion dollar mark. What do you think of that general concept? Yeah, I generally think competition is good. I generally think free markets should be allowed to operate. And I've shared my point of view, I think bigger is going to drive more innovation than lots of little. So, okay. Again, Waymo wouldn't exist if not for Google plowing billions and billions. And I don't know about you guys. I took Waymo around the city yesterday. Pretty sick. Like it is legit.

I don't go to the city. Yeah. It's pretty legit. And I think that's toxic cesspool. And by the way, I will say my other comment is I think that's- Because it's a toxic cesspool. And by the way, I will say my other comment is I think San Francisco has gotten 10X better now that I've been working downtown the last week or two. 10X is better from a toxic cesspool just because it's a cesspool. I think part of the reason is all of Walgreens is gone.

There's no Walgreens left. You can't buy deodorant. Problem solved. There's nowhere to do crime anymore. You can't buy a drug store that doesn's nothing problem solved. There's nowhere to do crime anymore. How do you buy toiletries and handbombs in San Francisco? How do you do that? You got to ask Jason.

Jason, how do you live? Get an Amazon package delivered. Yeah, I don't. Hey man, I'm in Texas. You can do whatever you want here. But he said. Jason gets his supplies air dropped in once a month. What are you talking about?

I'm bullish on the San Francisco turnaround because I think Daniel L a supply to air dropped in once a month. What are you talking about? I'm bullish on the San Francisco turnaround because I think Daniel Lurie getting elected mayor was huge and this doesn't get really as much attention but it's very important. The board shifted. The radicals got voted off the board of supervisors. So the board of supervisors are less progressive. Daniel's in the mayoral office.

It is. Good progress. And I think the city's already like turning around. I've been super blown away. The last couple of weeks I've been downtown. I'm like, why am I not working downtown every day? It's actually really nice. It feels like San Francisco 20 years ago. Let's see if it's safe.

I'm pretty bullish. I mean, safety is the number one thing. If they can stop the overdose. And this budget needs to get put under control. San Francisco spends one and a half X per capita of what New York City spends. And that's something that Daniel and his team have kind of said, they're going to address sort of like their own doge. And there's a team going in there to address this.

So I'm really bullish on what's going to happen with the city. It's just such a great place. It seems like the power resides in the supervisors and they seem to have flipped two or three of the really lunatic ones. Right, Sacks? They got rid of dopey Dean Preston. Who was the other guy? Peskin. Peskin.

He was an idiot. And those guys are done. They're done. three of the really lunatic ones, right? Sax, they got rid of dopey, Dan Preston. Who was the other guy? Peskin. Peskin. He was an idiot and they, those guys are done. So that's progress. Do you want to talk about the Trump, uh, candidates, Jacob? Yeah, let's get to that in a second. But before we get to that, FBI raided the home of poly market CEO, Shane

Copeland, he was on the election night stream. He was raided on Wednesday, November 13th, eight days after the election. They say polymarket is Bloomberg says polymarket is being investigated for allegedly accepting trades from us based users. Here's the backstory on 2022. Polymarket paid 1.4 million to settle a case with the CFTC for offering option contracts without proper designation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also ordered the company to prevent US traders from

making bets. They recently said Polymarket, that is, that they had taken additional measures to block Americans from trading. At the same time, Cal-She and Robinhood were able to offer presidential prediction markets because Cal-She, it seems like they won their lawsuit against the CFTC last month. So that allowed some betting markets to happen. But polymarket is still banned from the US because of that settlement in 2022. Here's the polymarket claim. They claim the raid was obviously political retribution by the outgoing administration against polymarket for providing a

market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election and Shane posted on X discouraging that the current administration would seek a last ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents, but you can spare some theories flying around Peter Thiel and founder funds have made an investment into the company and Nate Silver's an advisor. I guess I'll just point out two things. They're much more accurate than Nate Silver. Yeah. So how manipulated can it be if they got everything right?

Yeah, I mean, that's literally the point I was about to make. And I'll just end with this and then give it to you, Sachs for red meat. Americans are not allowed to participate in a lot of different markets. And these kind of actions have been taken many, many, many times, as we all know, poker, crypto, real estate, and prediction markets have all had actions like this taken against them. And they

typically are a ticket offices to or just his house, just his house, according to the information we have right now. They bust into his house at 6am and they took his phone. Yeah, by the way, shout out to like, like if you're breaking the law, why wouldn't they? All that TVD offices. Yeah, it's a great speculation. And important to note, this action came after the election is resolved. So it's obviously FBI knew that doing this beforehand would be seen as political and doing it after I guess they made the decision. No, no, I know what you're saying. I'm adding something else, which is

they obviously knew this would be political sacks. And so they did it after they knew if they did it before that would be looked like, you know really bad that the prediction mark That's prediction Trump a Trump win was Raided so they did it after what do you think sex? What's going on? Okay? I think it's political or not I guess don't know what was driving this It's certainly an extreme action to bust into someone's home at 6 a.m But the FBI and take take your phone. So it's very curious. I think there's three FBI and take your phone. So it's very curious.

I think there's three theories that I've heard that I think could explain this. And I want to just be very clear that there's no proof on any of this. It's just a speculation. Yeah. It's a speculation. Everything's a legend. Yeah. But by the way, just before I get into it, I think Shane Copeland had one of the funniest

tweets I've ever seen. New phone who dis? Yeah. New phone who dis? Nick, you should show them. I mean, that was like ballsy. The FBI busts in your house, takes your phone, and that's the person you tweet. I think that means that this is probably not a serious situation, but anyway, go ahead. Well, who knows, but. Or he's confident is what I would say, yeah.

Yeah, okay, so theory number one is that what the feds are looking for is whether any domestic whales were illegally wagering on the election outcome. I mean, I think that's a very serious situation. number one is that what the feds are looking for is whether any domestic whales were illegally wagering on the election outcome because theoretically the money is all supposed to be offshore because domestic wagering on the election was illegal. However, a court ruled just days before the election that domestic wagering was legal. Theory number one doesn't really make a lot of sense because the FBI would be enforcing

a rule or a law that the courts had just overruled just days before the elections. But that's theory number one. Theory number two, and this theory was raised by Fortune magazine, is that the polymarket was rife with what's called wash trading, which is a form of market manipulation where shares are bought and sold often simultaneously and repeatedly by the same people to create a false impression of volume and activity. This is illegal in the US and it does occur in crypto markets. So they could have been going after that, but again, it does seem like a very extreme thing to bust into his house.

Why don't you just ask Shane for the records during business hours? What authority would the US government have if it's all offshore in that context? I don't know. I'm just laying out possible theories, but Fortune magazine did raise that theory. But again, if that's what your claim is, just subpoena, polymarket during business hours. I don't know why you need to raid the guy's home or raid the office. That's where the files are. Right. And now let me let me lay out theory number three. Okay, which is going to be a little bit

different. Here we go. But get the chip. Well, if if somebody was manipulating these sites, okay, then on whose behalf were they doing it? And what you'd have to say is that they were doing it on behalf of the Kamala campaign because in the last few days of the election, there was a weird blip where Polymarket and, and Kalshi especially, Kalshi even more than Polymarket, all of a sudden flipped to Kamala. And you can see this particularly in Pennsylvania, where all of a sudden there was a big flip at the end away from Trump towards Kamala.

That turned out to be totally fake. And Trump won Pennsylvania pretty handily. And so you got to wonder, well, wait a second, was a Kamala supporter maybe trying to push the narrative that there was a last minute surge to Kamala because that's what the action seemed to imply. And remember that at the same time there was a last minute surge to Kamala because that's what the action seemed to imply. And remember that at the same time this was happening, there was a big, there was like

a media push to create a narrative by her supporters in the media that there was a late break for Harris by independents. And so you have to kind of wonder, was somebody trying to push the prediction markets at the last minute to feed a media narrative that they were trying to create. Look, I have no evidence for this whatsoever, but the action in the betting markets and the narrative they're trying to create in the media do line up. So if somebody was going to investigate election manipulation, this is what they should look into. Jamath, you have any thoughts here? No. Zero thoughts. manipulation, this is what they should look into. Jamath, you have any thoughts here? No, zero thoughts. I mean, yeah, you know, my thoughts on an error. I don't see him ever doing anything risky or illegal.

So it makes no sense to me. I'm guessing that somebody made him aware pure speculation of something in the system. And that probably was on his phone. And they probably wanted to get that. And it's probably like a speeding ticket, ticky tacky thing. And you just have the law still working its way through the system because they sacks were under an order to not take us, but Cal, she had gotten the mark, the law changed with their successful lawsuit, or they had defended their their case. So I would say it's all allegedly folks. And so

wait for more information is always a good idea. All right, Trump is building his team. And it's a long list. We've got guys dozens of names right now. So let's start with the four. Who's your favorite, Jacob? Well, my opinion probably doesn't matter all that much. But let me go with the four that are creating the most buzz to mouth. Let's let's create the let's go with the four that are having the most buzz and then I'll let you each tell me what you think is your one candidate you love. The one I yeah, there

is one actually I love but let's I'll say that's that I'm curious like, I'm genuinely curious. The fake and Elon doing Doge is my absolute favorite. Yes. Anything else that I am fascinated by Bobby Kennedy, going in and trying to make the country healthier and the country is the most sick country I think of all of the western countries and I think our food system has massive problems. So I'm very excited to see what he does inside of the Health and Human Services Department. I

think it's a little bit controversial, obviously, but I don't see how it could be any worse than what we currently have. How do you feel about that? Who's your favorite? I guess we can just go with people's favorites if you want to go that way. The way I interpret his cabinet just go with people's favorites if you want to go that way. The way I interpret his cabinet picks is that he's creating a

coalition. So I view it more as like a package deal, J Cal, I'm not going to pick out one or two, although I do have my favorites. The person who I think very astutely understands what Trump is trying to do is Charlie Kirk, who's a major influencer on the Republican side. And he says that what Maha, which is Make America Healthy Again, they get RFK, Bobby Kennedy, HHS, obviously. The Libertarians get Tulsi at DNI.

I would add to that that they also get Elon of the Vague at Doge. The base, the populist base gets Matt Gaetz. They get Hegseth at DoD. They get Homan. And then the peace through projecting strength crowd, which is kind of a nice name for Neocon gets Rubio as secretary of state and Stefanik at the UN. So I think that Frump is basically trying to have his cabinet reflect the diversity of views within the Republican Party. He's

not decisively choosing one side over another. What this means is that during his presidency, he's going to get all the views and all the options within the party. Okay. So that's the collective view. That's an interesting way of about it. Yes, exactly. Let's go point by point through the most controversial ones. Matt Gaetz is obviously the most controversial attorney. They're all young, though. That's what they are. They are all young. That's another trend, yeah. And gates is obviously the most controversial attorney. That's what they are. That's another trend. Yeah. And he has been put up as attorney general. He has to be confirmed by the Senate. Obviously he's the house rep from Florida. Sax, how qualified is

he for this job on a scale of one to 10? I think that Matt gates would be a breath of fresh air at DOJ. I mean, look, here's the- Why is that? The DOJ has been involved for the last eight or nine years in a completely fabricated effort to portray Donald Trump as an agent of the Russians. It started with the Steele dossier. They then opened an investigation based on that phony piece of opposition research

funded by the Hillary campaign. They lied to the FISA court to spy on Donald Trump's campaign. They then worked with the various intelligence services and with the media to create this hoax that went on for years and years. There's been no accountability for that. Furthermore, in the 2020 election, you also had that effort to essentially cover up the 100 Biden hard drive that the FBI and DOJ were sitting on that for roughly a year. They created a phony story that it was Russian disinformation when it turned out to be completely authentic.

So you think there's a lot to clean up there. How qualified is he on a scale of 1 to 10? What the president ran on was that the DOJ needed to be de-weaponized, that it had been turned into a partisan political apparatus for the Democrats. I don't think anyone can argue with that at this point. I think the American people clearly bought into that argument. Now, in order to clean it up, you're going to have to bring in a total outsider who's willing to break some eggs and shake things up. Is Matt Gaetz the only person who could do that? No, there are other people who could do it, but Matt Gaetz is definitely qualified for that role.

He was one of the most outspoken critics in Congress of this weaponization of the FBI. He was never fooled by the Russiagate hoax. Most of the establishment was. Any concerns? Anybody who bought into the Russiagate hoax is not qualified to run the DOJ at this point. Okay, any concerns? Well, there's a bunch of unproven smears and accusations

have been made against him. Any other concerns? Excuse me? Aside from the investigations and whatever in the smears? A bunch of unproven smears and accusations have been made against him. And my own view on that is that if there was really something there,

I think Merrick Garland's DOJ would have acted on it two or three years ago. So I personally discount all these smears without there being any evidence whatsoever. And I think it's very predictable that what we're seeing with both Matt Gaetz and with Tulsi is that the worst accusations get made without any evidence in the media, when the blob or the establishment wants to stop a true populist reformer from cleaning up their backyard.

Freeberg, your thoughts on Matt Gates? And that seems to be the most controversial one. Any concerns? You think he's the most suited guy for the job? I don't want to comment on Matt gates, but I'd like to talk about. Why not? Because I'd like to talk about a broader point of view on it. Okay. So I think there's this kind of thing that happens in biology called evolution. And a lot of people think evolution

is this continuous process, but it's not. Evolution is this process by which there is some significant growth for a period of time. And then there is an extinction event or an external force that causes what ultimately becomes what's called punctuated equilibrium. So the whole kind of system resets and then the healthier, stronger species survive and they grow and they persist. And if you look at the first chart, Nick, that I pulled up, this will just show you guys past extinction events, large amounts of biomass over the past half billion years

get wiped out when these extinction events occur and then evolution occurs because the species that can survive the extinction event, persists in the environment and they grow. And that's how evolution kind of actually takes place is there's an external force that changes what survives and what doesn't it's kind of a testing force. If you look at federal spending, then this is a crazy link. But here's federal spending over the

last couple of decades. And I would argue that many of the agencies, much of the bureaucracy, many of the jobs created, many of the spending programs, many of the operating models, many of the behaviors can kind of be viewed as a species or species within this ecosystem that have kind of grown a lot over the last few decades. And I think what Trump's mandate was by the people, and people don't want to hear this, and they don't like it, but his mandate was to be kind of the extinction event. And whatever agencies, whatever operating processes, whatever individuals, whatever bureaucratic systems exist within the federal government that can withstand the scrutiny of the individuals that Trump is going to put in charge of each of these

agencies, that they can survive and they can come out the other end, there is certainly some degree of strength and resilience and heartiness. This is not about right or wrong. You say they deserve to exist if they can survive. This is going to bring in the most disruptive force that federal agencies have ever seen. And the intention with Trump isn't to find some person to keep running things the way they have been run in the past.

His mandate from the people who elected him, based on the message he put out there, is to do the opposite, which is to go in and be as disruptive and damaging and destructive as possible. And whatever comes out the other side will be stronger, will be hardier, and theoretically will be, you know,

more resilient. And I think that that's the event that's underway. Now, the people who are getting exactly what they want in Trump's candidacies are the Democrats. They were saying Trump is gonna put a bunch of crazy lunatics in office, and he's gonna make them the cabinet, and now they're able to kind of clap

their hands and say, we told you so we told you so. And I'm not sure that if they're really getting the message, which is that the intention here isn't to keep things running the way they have been running, but to really fundamentally test the systems and test the systems with the most challenging oppositional forces the systems have ever been tested by, which is the candidates or the individuals that he's putting in charge of each of these agencies.

So I'm not saying it's right or wrong one way or the other, but I'm making an observation that this is gonna be kind of an extinction level event, that Trump's decisions on who he's putting in place, I think, are gonna drive an outcome on the other end that's gonna make the government look very different. And I'm not gonna sit around and say, this person's good, This person's bad. Cause I don't think the point is to find someone that's quote qualified to do the job. The intention is actually quite different and the

outcome may actually be positive for America. If you fast forward a couple of years in some cases, and there's some cases where things could get really messed up and people could suffer and jobs will be lost and all sorts of bad things will happen, but we cannot continue the way we have been with respect to federal spending, bureaucracy and inefficiency in the federal government. And so something has to happen. And if this is the path by which this gets resolved in the limited window that's in front of this particular administration, which is probably two years, maybe four, maybe this is what has to happen. Shabath, where do you stand on free birds? Interesting metaphor here that we're sending meteors into each of these departments

to blow them up and see if they survive an extinction level event. So you're nodding? Do you think this is an interesting framing? Great take I have nothing to add to Friedberg's take. Got it. Who's your favorite? Yeah. You asked me the question I answered. Who's your favorite? Well, I think let's take Elon and Vivek off the table because that's an obvious one that we all have been behind since the beginning. Yeah. And we all

support the idea who's not against more efficiency. I mean, you have to be an idiot to be against efficiency. It's the easiest one to say you love. I think the highest beta pick so far has been Bobby Kennedy. I think the second highest beta pick is Matt Gaetz. Explain highest beta pick in this context, please. I think the third is Tulsi Gabbard. That there's the potential for an enormously positive two or three sigma

outcome, but there's also the chance that it can really not work. That was exactly why I picked Bobby Kennedy because he's going to shake it up. Right. Peter Thiel just did this podcast with Barry Weiss and it was fantastic by the way, highly recommend highly recommend. He's awesome. Yeah.

The one of the great things he said is that he was talking about science, but I think the example works here as well, which is that we didn't have enough skepticism and we had too much dogma. He was talking about sort of like the death of science. And I think that that idea applies here as well, which is that the federal bureaucracy has not really been challenged. And Vivek put out a very compelling post on X where he basically said like, well, when you on the one hand, there's going to be radical transparency. But on the other hand, there's a lot of case law

that we can use to kind of try to really dismantle the government apparatus. And they're putting themselves on a shot clock to do it by 2026 for the 250th anniversary. So I think I'm really predisposed to this idea that it'll force the government to be very resilient at the end of this process. And I think that's a good thing. And it'll probably be very different than what it is on the way in. And I think that that can be very positive. All right. So we got your mouth and myself actually giving some specific names that we thought were interesting. I'll go back to you, sacks. Maybe I'll phrase it as to two months phrasing, which one do you think has the greatest chance of creating a

massive potential change that could be positive, but also has some possibility of a destructive downside. In other words, it could go either way. But man, if it goes the right way, it could be brilliant and amazing and great for all Americans who would be your number one, number two in that regard. Well, you have to identify what the potential downside is. I think the single biggest risk in a second Trump term is that somehow the United States gets into an unnecessary war a war that we don't need another forever war it's certainly not what President Trump wants he's been abundantly clear on the campaign trail that he wants to avoid wars he wants to

avoid World War three it's clearly where all of his instincts are but the fact that matter is we have a very fraught and difficult international situation right now the Middle East is on fire we have a very fraught and difficult international situation right now. The Middle East is on fire. We have a proxy war going on with Russia. So there is the chance that things could always spiral out of control. And you need, I think, within the cabinet, not just hawkish voices, but also dovish voices, so that the president has the full range of options at his disposal.

And so in that sense, I would say that, you know, Tulsi is being one of the more dovish voices is incredibly critical just to balance out some of the other voices who are more hawkish. And so in that sense, I think, you know, just making sure that the president gets to hear from a wide spectrum of views, I think that that part's very important. So that would be Tulsi. Tulsi would be your pick for like... Yeah, just because like Tulsi could literally make the difference between whether we get in a necessary forever war or not. I would also just say that with respect to the other picks, there's obviously a lot of hysteria going on, a

lot of hyperbole about the downsides. I don't think it's going to be like a meteor hitting the earth. I don't think it's that destructive. I think that it's more like, will some eggs be broken up to make an omelet, right? That's the analogy I would use rather than the meteor. And the thing I would just say is that we all agree the United States is currently on an unsustainable fiscal path. We know that we're spending too much money. currently on an unsustainable fiscal path. We know that we're spending too much money. We know that the bureaucracy is too big. What's the downside of shaking it up?

There's just way more upside than downside in terms of shaking up this bureaucracy. Because the current path is bankruptcy. Exactly, so why do we have to act like that it's so risky to bring in outsiders and populists and reformers into these agencies, we know there's going to be huge resistance to them. The biggest risk frankly is inertia taking over and the reformers aren't able to do enough and we all doing nothing is not an option. Yeah, and then we go bankrupt. That's the big risk. Why is Tulsi getting

attacked? What's the rushing? People are saying, I don't know, I don't know any of the history here. So tell me. It's obvious. It's because Washington is a very hawkish place. It's basically run by the war machine. There's there's no money going to Washington to lobby for peace. All the money in Washington is coming from the military industrial complex. So by definition, it's extremely hawkish and it's geared towards war. And Tulsi-

But is there some history with Tulsi in Russia? Yeah. Just to finish my point. Yeah. Tulsi has been one of the few consistent voices advocating for peace. So of course the establishment wants to basically get her nomination vetoed.

But again, I think you have to see the cabinet as a package deal. I think it's very important to have Tulsi as one voice for peace within a larger cabinet that already has many hawkish voices. Okay. All right, everybody, for your Sultan of Science from Ohalo, David Freeberg, the chairman dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya from AD90, and David Sachs from Craft Ventures, I am Jason Callahan is your host here at the all in podcast and this week in startups. We'll

see you next time on the all in podcast. Bye bye. Back at you Chief Retribution Officer. What your winners ride Rain Man, David Sacks I'm going all in And instead, we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it Love you, SK The queen of Kinewan

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