American Thought Leaders - How Beijing’s New Law Seeks to Crush Dissent Worldwide | Guermantes Lailari

Episode Date: July 10, 2026

China’s new ethnic unity law has taken effect, and it’s going to be used to justify and expand transnational repression overseas in combination with existing laws on promoting “separatism,” said Guermantes Lailari, a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel and longtime China researcher.“In this new ethnic law, they encourage people to report on other Chinese who are not promoting ‘unity.’” Lailari said.“So if you’re a Chinese person in the United States promoting Taiwan, they can prosecute you in absentia, and the court will have a ruling. And they can put out a red notice or Interpol notice on that person who’s overseas, and if that person ever travels to a country that China has bilateral extradition laws with, that person can be detained and transferred to China,” Lailari added.Lailari moved to Taiwan a few years ago to study the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) up close.“This place,” he said, “is being attacked every day, whether it’s cyber, cognitive warfare, media warfare, economic warfare, diplomatic warfare.”In our interview, he argues that the CCP poses the most serious long-term threat to Western civilization—not just militarily, but through a combination of legal, economic, psychological, and intelligence operations.In this episode, we dive into why the CCP is fixated on taking Taiwan, and what the global fallout of such a takeover would look like.Views expressed in this video are opinions of the host and the guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

In this new ethnic law, they encourage people to report other Chinese who are not promoting unity. And this law can be applied outside of China. They can prosecute you in abstentia, and they can put out a red notice or an Interpol notice on that person who's overseas. Grimont Leilari is a retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel and longtime China researcher. He moved to Taiwan to study the Chinese Communist Party up close. This place is being attacked every day, whether it's cyber, whether it's cognitive warfare, media warfare, economic warfare, diplomatic warfare. Why is the CCP so fixated on Taiwan?

And what would be the global repercussions if the CCP were to take control of Taiwan by whatever means? In the late 1990s, China's military was no more capable than Taiwan's military. Today, China's navy is larger than the U.S. Navy. This is American Thought Leaders and I'm Yanya Kellick. Gremantley-Larry, such a pleasure to have you on American Thought Leaders. Thank you very much for the honor. Your career was in the U.S. Air Force. Your retired Lieutenant Colonel, worked in the Middle East, quite a lot, a bit in Africa,

you're a specialist in asymmetrical warfare. But you ended up in Taiwan. You decided to retire here and it doesn't look like it was entirely retired. It was entirely retirement when I look at your productivity in terms of writing. Why did you decide to come here? I did spend a lot of time in the Middle East, and I understood that conflict is actually normal, and peace is abnormal, unfortunately. And so I started thinking about the world and thinking about where is the next big problem

for, let's say, Western civilization. And I've been thinking about China for a long time even during my military service. Actually, even before I joined the military, there was a China connection. But after spending time during my active duty and also after my active duty, I did defense contracting work in Israel on missile defense. And I decided, you know, I needed to really think about the big picture. And I decided that China was going to be the big problem for the West. And I spent a year on my own studying China and I applied for the Taiwan Fellowship through

the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Taiwan and I was accepted. And that was in 2022 and I've been in Taiwan for now four years just focusing on China. And the more I study it, the more I realized I made the right decision. What is it that that made you decide that China needed to be? the focus. And also why then why Taiwan? I explain that. Okay. Because of my writings and what I write about, it's not China communist friendly. And so the best place in my opinion to be is as close as possible to China without being in China. And so Taiwan is the great, great place because it actually is one of the primary targets of the Communist Party of China's unrestricted warfare. So,

So this place is being attacked every day, whether it's cyber, whether it's cognitive warfare, media warfare, economic warfare, diplomatic warfare. It is the focus of a lot of energy by the CCP. And it is their most important of the most important issues for them. And so this is the place for me to be at so I can understand why they're going to be at so I can understand and why they focus on Taiwan. And what are their strategies? What are their tactics?

And are they being successful? What are their strengths? What are their weaknesses? And exploring all this, it takes a lot of meticulous work. And so I think I'm getting there. Well, and what is it that made you realize after working in a kind of completely different area that China was the thing to focus? on?

Well, you know, I'm Jewish. Part of my family stayed in Europe and suffered under the Nazi regime. And I think Jews in general understand are sensitive to governments that are totalitarian and destructive. And I think through that tradition, I recognized early that that that you, that you know that China is going to be a real problem for everybody. And we can see that playing out not only in China, but outside of China. A lot of people don't understand the distinction between a totalitarian regime and an authoritarian one.

Can you qualify that for me, please? Sure. Authoritarian regime is a regime where the people in power determine the rules. The totalitarian regime is a country that sets itself up that everything about it is controlled by an ideology rather than the people. So for example, communism under the Communist Party of China is a totalitarian concept. In other words, it's not just the people in charge, it's the idea of communism that drives everything that they do. Whereas, let's say, under Shankai Shek here in Taiwan, it was a authoritarian regime, but it really didn't have an ideology behind it other than the personality cult.

And so that's how I look at it. But people would say that most Chinese don't believe in communism anymore, so how could it be a communist society? It doesn't really matter what they think, because the Communist Party is that the Communist Party China tells you what to think and the regime is slowly but surely creating structures like law, for example, to force people into communist thinking and destroying anything that's having to do with other than communism. For example, all religion is going to be eventually put down and and ethnic identity is going to be blended to get rid of all the differences.

And what the Chinese Communist Party is doing right now is they're focusing on unity and trying to force people to focus on that and not focus on diversity, which is sort of something that the West tends to focus on. Well, so let's talk about the ethnic unity law. This is something you've written a lot about. the context of Taiwan, which is I think incredibly fascinating, but I've wanted to talk to someone for a while about this ethnic unity law. It struck me as a kind of game-changing rules, if you will. But explain to me what this is. This is very new. There's 50 plus ethnic

minorities in China and this changes things for them substantively. And not just them, but explain that to me, please. Okay. So the law was passed in March of this year and it's going to be implemented on the 1st of July. And what it does is it's an activist law. What it means is you have to actively support the Communist Party of China. You can't be passive. You can't not do something. You have to show that you promote it. In fact, in the law it says the purpose of the law is to promote the love of the Communist Party of China. And so anybody, for example, the Uyghurs or the Tibetans, some places were allowing them to teach their local language. Even in Mongolia up until a year or so ago, the language of Mongolian was taught in Inner Mongolia, which is occupied by China.

So all those differences are being phased out by this law. This law promotes simplified Chinese and it, forces people to make sure that what they're doing promotes the Communist Party of China. For example, if there's a request for everyone to put up a flag in front of their storefront, you can't not do that. You have to do it. If you want to teach your child your family history and the ethnic origins or language, that is not promoting unity of China. And really what this is doing is promoting the idea of Han supremacism, that the Han Chinese are the best and the brightest of China.

Everyone should want to do that. So if you're, for example, Tibetan, you should want to marry a Han Chinese. If you're a Uyghur, you should want to marry a Han Chinese because by doing that, you unify the country. So this is basically providing justification for their forcing women in Tibet or in East Turkestan to marry Han Chinese. This is sort of retroactive. Which is something that they have been doing.

Right. But this is the law now. This is the law that creates the justification for what they have been doing. And now I believe it's going to go on steroids because now they have the law. Now they can just go full out if they want to. You can say, well, why aren't you, this is the law now, why aren't you applying that? Right. It's very interesting you describe it as an activist law.

And the other thing that's interesting what you said is, you know, you don't necessarily have to believe it. You just have to enact it. Right. And that's the only way you can protest is by not saying that you disagree with it. You can't externally show any kind of resistance to it because then you could be accused of promoting separatism and according to the Chinese criminal code specifically article 103 it has a whole section on what the criminal prosecution can can accuse you of if you are accused of separatism so this falls into the criminal

code so if you don't follow the ethnic code then they can push you into the criminal code and and with that criminal code they actually updated it for Taiwan getting back to your question of how it applies to Taiwan. In 2024, two years ago, they, what they did was they added some amendments to that Article 103 and they specified that if you support Taiwan independence or separatists, you're liable for this law. And it even goes to the point where if you are a leader of Taiwan independence, you can be given the death penalty for being a leader. And also it's even the law is enhanced if you have a connection, let's say you're, if China were to occupy Taiwan, God forbid,

and they implemented that law, and anyone here who had a connection with the outside agency or a person or country, in other words, let's say you're an academic and you were corresponding with an institution in Washington, D.C., and you were promoting Taiwan culture, that person in Taiwan, if China was occupying this land would be more severely prosecuted under the criminal code than somebody who was just in Taiwan. So they're creating what I call a panopticon, which is, or as another colleague, calls it an omnipicon, basically a prison that's all seeing and any action that you do is being recorded. So what they're doing is they're also encouraging Chinese to replace.

people who are in this new ethnic law. They encourage people to report on other Chinese who are not promoting unity. And this law, which is even more scary, can be applied outside of China. And this is where China is actually passed a law that encourages transnational repression. So if you're a Chinese person in the United

in the United States promoting Taiwan, they can prosecute you in absentia and the court will have a ruling and they can put out a red notice or an Interpol notice on that person who's overseas. And if that person ever travels to a country that China has bilateral extradition laws to, that person can be detained and transferred to China

because they violate it. the separatism law. So this law has a huge amount of potential and they can they can choose to do nothing for now but in the future when they have more control more coercive control over countries this law has potential to drag in a lot of people who are exercising their freedom of speech their freedom of thought that we in the West assume is sacrosan but in China it's not. So I just want to clarify one thing. I think you're talking about two different laws here, right? You started talking about this new ethnic unity law. Right.

But you're basically saying that this is kind of working in conjunction with this anti-separatist law. Criminal code, under the criminal code. Yeah, so it can just explain to me how these two things work together. So the ethnic law lays out what the Chinese Communist Party wants people to do. If you don't do it, then the criminal code comes into play. Other aspects of Chinese society can also come into play. For example, the social credit score or your standing in the community, you know, they can also name and shame you for not playing the game.

But ultimately, if the party wants to prosecute you, they have the legal mechanism to connect the ethnic law to the criminal code and put you in jail. So basically if you're not in standing within the ethnic unity law, you can be branded as a separatist. That's the bottom line. And you can be branded as a separatist as a Chinese living in America or any other country. Not just Chinese.

Anybody who promotes separatism in China. So I'm an American. But that's, what is separatism in China? It could be anything. Right. If you promote Uyghurs, if you promote Tibet, if you're a free Tibet person, that the ethnic law identifies you as somebody who's trying to separate China from its parts, and then they can prosecute you under their legal code in absentia. In other words, you could be prosecuted without your knowledge. And then when you show up in a country that has extradition law, you can suddenly be arrested and brought to China to face your prison term.

That's the connection. And it's not just ethnic Chinese, it's anybody. You and I are eligible for this ethnic law because if you or I, which I do, promote the idea that Taiwan is a separate country. It's kind of obviously as a separate, I don't think. But I'm just saying the law allows them to have this. legal justification for getting you under their thumb. It has a psychological effect because some people might feel well maybe I shouldn't be doing this because I might get in trouble. So it has this psychological effect. The other thing I want to point out is this law

reminds me of the Nazi Nuremberg laws that were used against Jews in 1930s to start to, it's a reverse. In the Nuremberg law, isolated the Jews and removed them from government, from academic institutions, from any kind of social support. So, but the idea is the same. In other words, the Nazis use the law to achieve their objectives. The Chinese communists are doing the same thing. They're using the law to create the world that they would like. This reminds me of the national security law in Hong Kong. I was there in 2019, not long before that act that law actually came down and the way I read that law by me you

know interviewing some of the protest leaders by the which are by the way now in jail I myself could be you know subject to a decade in prison possibly just simply for doing that because it's a very broadly worded document so it has that effect of you know making people say hmm maybe I should just be a little more careful here so a lot of people will just kind of stay away from issues and on the other hand it could actually be used against to create a few examples is there is some kind of you know is this analogous and how is this connected well this is all connected under the rubric you might say of illegal warfare that was

institutionalized in 2003 by the People's Liberation Army with a three warfares okay but this is an extension outside of the PLA this is in into civil society into other societies like you mentioned Hong Kong so what China is doing is actually experimenting with the law and seeing how they can use the law to again achieve their objectives and using law in in in this way legitimizes their actions because we we in well the rest the world view use laws inside countries as sort of legitimate. And as long as they don't impose their laws outside of their country, that's the whole

United Nations framework, right? We don't interfere in the internal affairs of other countries in general, because the country is a legitimate, quote unquote, unit. And so what they do inside is kind of their business, except, of course, when there's human rights abuses and all that. But in general, we have this idea that a country has a legitimate right to have their own laws. But China is using this idea as a weapon. They're weaponizing this idea to control people and not just in action but in thought.

And that's the real power of what they're doing. Why this incredible focus on Taiwan that you mentioned earlier? I think there's several aspects to this. The simple aspect is the Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan as an unresolved part of the Civil War. In other words, it's land that they think that they should own because it's where the KMT, the military they were fighting Shankajek's team versus the communists. And so when Shankajek and his followers retreated and occupied or took or liberated, depending on how you want to look at it. Taiwan, Mao viewed Taiwan as sort of the last part of the puzzle

that needed to be controlled. So that's that's the sort of the framework. I also think that Taiwan represent an ideological threat to the communist party of China because they promote the idea that Chinese people can only thrive under communism and with a democratic country of Taiwan being very prosperous and successful, it is a huge problem for them ideologically to explain to their people why democracy also works for Chinese, ethnic Chinese people. And so ideologically it's a problem. I think also there's other dimensions such as the military. The military military, the PLA Navy specifically, is locked in basically along the coastline.

And they have to go through other countries' territorial waters to get out into the Pacific. And Taiwan's east coast is particularly useful if you have nuclear submarines. If you were to have a nuclear submarine base on the east side of Taiwan, the water drops a thousand, several thousand meters. So there's a military reason to grab Taiwan. And I think politically and diplomatically, if China were to take Taiwan, it sort of breaks up the whole alliance that the U.S. has built up since World War II. In other words, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, that whole first island chain is sort of broken

up. And if China controls Taiwan, that means they control the Taiwan Strait. And that means the economy of South Korea and Japan, China has them basically can control them economically by shutting down the Taiwan Strait just like the Iranians did in Strait of Hormuz. If they shut down the Taiwan Strait, Japan economy and the South Korean economy are gone. What about the Chinese economy though? So the Chinese have been developing alternate routes. They have a port in Pakistan that they're promoting, they've built it up, they've put a lot of effort in the Iran. They are also using overland from to Russia.

And also they are very interested in the Arctic because it's slowly going away. So they are developing alternate routes to mitigate the issue of a blockade, let's say, by the west. And that's why they've extended their control in the South Sea on those islands, those fake islands, and they want to control that. so that the US or any other country can't prevent them from getting their shipping from the Middle East or Europe, etc. So you've promoted this idea of a first island treaty organization, a FITO. Some people would describe that as a great kind of escalation of some sort. Would explain to me this idea? Actually it's not a new idea.

During the Eisenhower administration, you know, NATO was created. Actually, NATO was created beforehand, but several other unifying, defensive organizations were created, Cento, Sato, you know, Southeast Asian Treaty Organization. All these organizations were created during the Eisenhower administration. NATO was created a little before, but he was the first NATO commander before he became president. And one of the ideas was to create Nito, the Northeast Asian Treaty Organization, which was to include South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the U.S. And that idea kind of fell apart. It never got beyond just talking about it.

And the reason why it didn't work out is because at that time, obviously Japan and Korea, it was pretty close to the World War II. been some bad things that the Japanese had done in South in Korea and so that that didn't work out but the idea is in response to an aggressive aggressor such as China if you have a unified front it's it's stronger than having each country trying to take care of itself by itself or with the US so I think I think there are some fundamental underlying parts that already exist. All the weapons that the US and Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines use are designed to be NATO standard.

Why is that? Because the US has designated certain countries around the world as being major non-NATO allies. And South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan, according to the law, are considered major non-NATO allies. And by designating that, that means everything that the U.S. sells to those countries is interoperable with the weapon systems that those countries build, because the idea is that if you create a standard, then the country that receives them also has to do the same. So that's one thing. The second thing is that's on that sort of technical level.

On the operational level, Japan, for example, has several agreements between itself and the Philippines, and India and Australia that are security agreements so that if they need a ship needs to be repaired, reciprocal access agreements have been signed by many, many countries that are allies to the United States. So what we have is an overlapping connectivity between these countries already. So to me, just making it one step above that, actually connecting everything together formally would be a very useful tool because that means that everybody starts working together and operating together as a unified team. Instead of having U.S. and Korea and then U.S. and Japan, then you have the trilateral,

or quadrilateral, etc. And so I think it's very possible. And I think what's actually happening without naming it, it's actually occurring. Well, and this creates a sort of deterrence, doesn't it? Yes. Even psychologically. And I think it's a good thing because China has been growing its military at such a rapid pace that now the U.S. is nowhere able to...

even maintain equal production level of ships, airplanes, tanks, all these different things. Can you just qualify that from you a little bit? Like how, give me some sort of framework to understand how quick or how big that growth has been, military growth? So in the late 1990s, China's military was no more capable than Taiwan's military. in the late 1990s. Today, China's Navy is larger than the U.S. Navy. China's Coast Guard is bigger than any other Coast Guard combined. They've got so many ships, and the ships are retired Navy ships. They just painted them white instead of the gray color. their budget for their military is some estimate between $300 billion to $700 billion. The U.S. is reaching a trillion roughly.

But don't forget, things in China cost a lot cheaper. So the actual amount of weapon systems that are being built is incredible. One statistic that probably will be very interesting to you, the capacity of China's Navy Yards is 200 times more than the United States. 200 times more. If you were to combine Japan's shipbuilding, commercial shipbuilding and Korea's shipbuilding and every other country in the world shipbuilding, that would equal China. including the United States. The United States has really lost a lot of its shipbuilding capabilities. Right, it's reliant on Korea and Japan, in fact.

On the commercial side. Yeah. And now we're looking at the military side too, but it's a little bumpy. But the idea is that they are, they're building a military that's global, not just local. And when a country does that, it's messaging that its intentions are not local. its intentions are global. Well, so let's go back to Taiwan for a moment. There's different opinions on this among people.

You know, it's written into the Chinese military charter, I think, that they're going to take. If I understand it's part of the whole ethos of the Chinese military that Taiwan will be taken. People learn that. It's in the Constitution. Right. It's in the PRC Constitution that Taiwan is part of China. One understanding is that they really want to take it without firing a shot. Correct.

Right. But you seem to be convinced that they will do it kinetically, at least when I read your writing. And so maybe explain to me what you really think about that. Okay. So let me give you just a little background. In 2005, China passed the anti-succession law, which says that Taiwan will be taken either through peaceful or non-peaceful means.

And non-peaceful means is code word for war. But they don't consider taking Taiwan a war because it's a renegade province. It's they say it's part of internal China. A war can only be done between two countries. So they don't accept Taiwan as being a country, so it's a non-peaceful means. Okay. They laid it, they laid it out in that law. What they're doing is they're going in both directions.

In other words, they're trying to do peaceful means. and non-peaceful means in parallel and a huge amount of effort in both of them. Now, the reason I think that they are going to have to go kinetic is because over time, the people in Taiwan are identifying themselves more as Taiwanese than as Chinese. You know, a lot of the Shankaj Shek people that came and a lot of the education system that he developed promoted the idea of China as being ethnic Chinese. Chinese is sort of like actually similar to what the unity law is in China today. During the white terror period, if you spoke other than Mandarin, you were ridiculed and you were put down in a sense of humiliated.

Democracy started in the early 90s, and so since then, people in Taiwan have rediscovered their Taiwanese heritage and they're more proud of it. So roughly 60, 70% of the people here identified themselves as Taiwanese. Another 10, 15, 20% identify themselves as Taiwanese and Chinese. And maybe the last 10, 20% are Chinese. Okay. But a lot of those people who identify themselves as Chinese are also part of the older generation. So the trend line is going to more and more Taiwanese. So if the trend line is going in that direction, it's a problem for China because it means that the non-peaceful means

is not going to be successful. Despite these massive efforts that they've had to make the non-peaceful wings work, the cognitive war through, the ideological subversion, the buying of media, that kind of goes on and on. Right. So they're still trying. What they're finding is that they might not be able to convince people in Taiwan to be more Chinese, but what they are finding successful is that they can co-opt politicians.

They can co-opt businesses. They can co-opt religions. They can co-opt the mafia. They can co-opt a lot of people. Even in the military, many of the spies that were caught in the last couple years were military members or retired military members. So they're finding success in certain areas. And, you know, so for example, when the leader of the KMT went to China and met with Xi Jinping, you know, she is promoting sort of a more peaceful integration while maintaining into.

which is not going to work for China. But the fact is she went to Xi Jinping and got that anointment of being in line with what they want. This is success for them. And if they were to win the next election in 2028, I believe that they will see that the peaceful means is more likely, even though the people are not pro-China. pro-China or believing themselves to be Chinese, the politicians are willing to, if the KMT wins, along with the coalition, let's say, then they would see that as sort of like the

time period of President Maying Joe. For eight years, sort of built up the relationship between Taiwan and China, and then it broke when the people said, enough, we're not, we don't want to be unified with China. And so I think that's their hope. But they also want to leave the kinetic option open and available. And Xi Jinping has told his military to be ready by 2027 if he and beyond, if he were to order them that they should be able to take Taiwan if he ordered them. So that's the two tensions that are being promoted simultaneously.

neither of them, rivers, both of them are on overdrive. And this is also in the context of all this upheaval in the Chinese military, though, in the last year. Yeah. I would say that it's, okay, so the upheaval is at the senior levels, you know, two, three, four star generals. I think it has to do with disappointment because I suspect that all those generals promised Xi Jinping to be at certain point.

along their journey to being prepared to take Taiwan, capability-wise, and they're not achieving it. And so he's disappointed in them, he's firing them, or disappearing them, depending on the case. And he's using corruption as a means to get them out of his way. There also might be some generals who are doubtful about the PLA's ability to take Taiwan. So he also wants to get rid of those people.

He wants yes men around him, and not only yes men, but he wants people who are going to actually execute what he's going execute what he's asked them to do. And so I think that's why in the beginning maybe two years ago we saw the Rocket Forces commander and his replacement taken out. There's other reasons people are talking about but I think the overall issue is his goal and he needs to and remember the PLA is the People's Liberation Army for the Communist Party of China. It's not for the People's Republic of China.

party army and so they have to do what he says there's no and he's head of the CMC the Central military commission so they they have to follow his his direction and if they're not able to do it I think that's why he's firing them but you know against all odds even you know if they're advising him that he shouldn't do it they're just he you think he's just determined yes I think that Xi Jinping would like to be added to the pantheon of the PRC gods, so to speak, in the communist world, right? They don't have gods, but, you know, he wants to be compared to Mao. To Mao, right. Right, so his legacy. He wants to be in a mausoleum. Right, but he also wants to have the legacy of people looking up at him as being almost equivalent to or equal to

Mao. And the only way he can achieve it is to finish the job that Mao didn't finish, which is to take Taiwan. Now I think the vision is not just focused on Taiwan. I think China also claims the Sinkaku Islands in southern Japan. They also have interest in taking control of the South Sea. They have interests in expanding their territory. And we've, you know, like we had talked about Cleo Pascal, she's talking about how China is actually leapfrogging beyond the first island chain, the second and third island chain to try to co-op those countries. So it would be a synchronous thing. So if they took Taiwan and these other countries are already controlled by China, then the entire

Pacific becomes sort of their forward basing where they can push back the United States and democracy. With this massively growing Navy. Correct. But also there are massively effective United Front activities to coal. politicians, businessmen all around the world. We're seeing in the United States, we're seeing it in Canada. We see a lot of these activities actually are synchronous.

They have a plan and they're executing it. And in Taiwan, they've been doing it since the beginning. In the early 50s, there was a spy that was caught and he actually gave up a thousand spies in Taiwan, 1,000. A year or two ago, the head of the National Security Bureau testified in the legislative UN, which is where you testified, that there were at least 5,000 Chinese spies in Taiwan. So it's full on, they're what they're doing. Just like it's full on what they're doing in the United States with spies being caught all the time.

Right. Just to maybe remind us what the United Front is. United Front is a, you know, uniquely communist organization. Okay, first of all, it was one of the three secret weapons of Mao. The first secret weapon was the Communist Party. The second was the PLA, and the third was the United Front. And the reason why United Front is a secret weapon is because it operates both inside China and outside China. And what it does is it's public in the sense that the people promote China.

And externally, they infiltrate ethnic Chinese communities around the world. And what they try to do is push the idea that China is their homeland, motherland, and that they should help China. And it feeds into the Communist Party's idea that they own those people and they should comply with whatever China wants. So when Xi Jinping went to San Francisco to meet with President Biden, there was several thousand Chinese nationals and ethnic Chinese Americans who were asked to help with making sure that no one protested. There was no video of anybody

protesting Xi Jinping's visit to San Francisco. And this is well documented. So it's a it's a group of people that promote China, but they have it they have operating aspects of it. If they want to achieve something unique, they will call upon them and these people will help them because they feel an obligation to support China. So this goes through businesses. With the Chinese Communist Party's vision of China, basically when you say China, that's what you mean. Yeah, of course. And it's a weapon for the Communist Party. And so what they do is they exploit

it. They exploit relationships. They help people with business deals. So it's a, a But this expands beyond just ethnic Chinese as well, right? Yes. Yeah. I mean, we had the case where President Clinton received funding from a Buddhist temple in California that got the money from communist China. So you've got this operation going on where there's a lot of manipulation and a lot of coordination with not only United Front, but then that you have the MSS, the Ministry of State Security

which is like the CIA's and a little bit of the FBI combined and so you have all these different things going on that are way beyond what normal let's say Western country does in terms of its intelligence operations for example stealing doing economic espionage for the benefit of the state is not something that the the Western governments typically are involved in and the United Front work with the MSS will do actions that will promote that. You have people who benefit from their relationship with China. You have academics, you have businessmen who go to China and are self-limiting themselves and what they say because of their relationship with China. So they

want to maintain that relationship with China. So you don't see them talking about human rights abuses because they wouldn't be invited back to China. So they have their own self-interest and that's where things get interesting in terms of loyalties. So you've just described this incredible growth of the PLA. Some people describe it as the quickest military growth in the history of the world. That's right. And also the importance of Taiwan globally in terms of it, you know, these highest end chips that are used to drive AI development,

both in the United States and, you know, China's made it, The Sunni Qis-Ju-Jemeng's made it the centerpiece of his work. I'm kind of wondering to myself why there isn't more of a focus on both from Taiwan's own perspective defense. And you've shown me some interesting graphs which are kind of shocking and the United States and frankly Western liberal democracies. You know from 1955-56 until 1979, the United States had a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan and then President Carter annulled it by not renewing it. And then the Taiwan Relations Act came into effect. And that act lays out the responsibilities of the United States and Taiwan. It says that the United States will provide defense equipment

and articles so that Taiwan can defend itself. In other words, Taiwan will purchase weapon systems that will be sufficient to defend itself. That worked until the late 90s, as I mentioned before. The other part of that Taiwan Relations Act says this, that the United States will maintain the capacity and the capability to maintain peace in the Western Pacific, including, it's called the Taiwan Relations Act, so including regarding Taiwan and China. So up until the late 1990s, that was pretty much correct. was a balance. But when China became an economic superpower and growing immensely from 2000 until today, the United States and Taiwan didn't keep up their promise in that act. That act

is a U.S. law. And so I blend Taiwan and the United States for not pursuing that with vigor based on the threat. It could have been for a lot of different reasons. Taiwan, help China get strong economically and the United States and all these other countries did too. So that's the framework that we're operating under and I think both sides need to do a lot, a lot, a lot of work to return deterrence back in the favor of Taiwan. What does deterrence look like? In the case of China, I'll give you an example of how it worked against China. Of course, it's changed since then.

But the 1950s, President Eisenhower deployed nuclear weapons to Taiwan to send a message to Mao to not plan, not to invade Taiwan. He was going to invade Taiwan in the 50s. Actually, just before the Korean War, there was an opportunity that China was thinking about invading Taiwan. invading Taiwan. But in the first Taiwan straight crisis and the second Taiwan straight crisis, both of those timeframes, China was aggressively pursuing taking Taiwan's islands and Taiwan itself. But the United States deterred China from doing that by threatening nuclear weapons. China did not have nuclear weapons until 1964 when they detonate their first nuclear weapon. So that's how deterrence works. The United States might not have used nuclear weapons,

but China did a risk analysis and they decided not to push their luck because the Soviet Union at the time also did not promise to support them, being the only other country at the time that had nuclear weapons, even though they were friends. So today what deterrence looks like is if Taiwan and the United States are going to return to something like that, the Xi Jinping and his generals and his advisors need to believe that they won't be successful in invading Taiwan and also controlling Taiwan. So there has to be sufficient capabilities for the Taiwanese to prevent an invasion and if an invasion is successful from the Chinese point of view, that they

can repel them off the island. That's the kinetic side. The problem is they're also attacking them psychologically, economically and all these other dimensions diplomatically trying to restrict their visibility in the world. And so Taiwan needs to amp up everything in both areas. And I think they are trying, but in my opinion, they're not going fast enough and sufficiently enough. And then the United States side, we're starting to increase the amount of weapons that we're

selling to Taiwan, but we're also restricted because of our use of the weapons in the Middle East, for example. The missile defense systems have been depleted. quite a bit. And so I think right now is a higher risk situation than we were, let's say, last year or a couple of years ago because of our supplies of these weapons that would be used in preventing China from invading Taiwan are pretty low. So my point is that that's That's the military side, but on the, let's say on the political side, the U.S. Congress could also do something.

For example, during the Eisenhower administration, the Congress, before the mutual defense treaty was signed authorized President Eisenhower the use of force in case China invaded Taiwan. So I think that that's something that should be discussed to send a message to China that the United States is serious about defending Taiwan in case China wants to change the current situation, the status quo. And that's what the Taiwan Relations Act says, is that the United States promotes the status quo, which means China should not take Taiwan, and in the 50s, Shankar Shek wanted to take

China. So the idea was that both sides should stay on their side of the, of the, of the, you know, Taiwan straight. So that's what I think should happen. There should be a multi-dimensional approach to this to counter China's multi-dimensional approach to trying to subdue Taiwan. There's a lot of people asking questions about, you know, how, why is this important to us? There isn't a lot of appetite for, you know, adventurism, you know, even this war in Iran, a lot of questions. about its validity, you know, there's always this mass information warfare that's happening. You know, everyone's declaring victory, everyone's declaring failure, etc.

In the context of Taiwan, well, maybe unpack that for me. Okay. Polling in the United States says roughly 50 to 60% of the people support the idea that the United States would defend Taiwan. Boots on the ground, it goes lower than 50%, but just in general the idea of supporting Taiwan against China, there is support. And if it goes below 50%, you know, that's what the presidents are for, is to move the public to a, in a positive way to support an initiative that they want to do. So I think the support is there.

In Congress, it's certainly there. There's a lot of support for Taiwan in Congress. There are several reasons why Taiwan's important to the United States. As I mentioned before, if Taiwan were taken by China, our allies that we have actually trees with, defense trees, South Korea and Japan would be at great risk of being suffocated by Chinese obstructionism, slowing down shipping in the Taiwan Strait, affecting oil deliveries, all these different things that Japan and Korea certainly need, even though they have nuclear power. It doesn't mean that they also need their industry to operate.

So the loss of Taiwan would cause a huge economic problem for Japan and Korea, and those are countries that we have a lot of economic relationships with. So that would affect our economy. I think is the fourth largest economic trading partner. So the loss of Taiwan would also be significant. So the economic side is clear. The political and diplomatic side, Taiwan is a democracy. Now we don't have to defend every democracy in the world, but this democracy is also very

special in the fact that we used to have a mutual defense treaty with this country and we helped this country develop. So we have sort of a latent connection with the... this country. I mean, favorite sport in Taiwan is baseball. The electricity is 110 volts. You know, there's a lot of standardization similarities between Taiwan and the United States. If you come here on the 31st of October, a lot of kids are wearing Halloween costumes. And it's not a normal Asian tradition to celebrate Halloween. So there is that connection. There is also, I think, a important factor you mentioned is the chips.

There was a study done, actually, it's very interesting study, that came out and said that if Taiwan's chip manufacturing company, TSMC, let's say we're blown up, most people think it would affect everybody. But according to this analysis, China actually has a large chip manufacturing capability, not at the two nanometer level, but it has the capacity for, to make a lot of its own chips. And so the theory is that actually the TSM removal

would affect the West more than it would affect China. And so taking Taiwan and let's say something happened to those chip plants would actually affect the West more than would affect China. So there's a lot of different things about it. And then I also mentioned, From the point of view of sort of our historical connection to Taiwan, most people forget that the Republic of China, which is Taiwan, was one of the members of the founding members

of the UN and also of the UN Security Council. ROC was in the Security Council, was a permanent member until 1971. It's an interesting history that people can forget and connect different things about it. And I think there's a lot of also personal connections with Taiwan. We have a huge Taiwanese expat community in the United States. People don't know about that as much. And I think that Taiwan has a good reputation, but Taiwan also needs to do more internally. So given everything.

we've just talked about, what do you think should be done right now on the side of the U.S., on the side of Taiwan? Taiwan needs to do a lot more in a lot of different areas. Let's just talk about the military. Taiwan's military is about 188,000 active duty volunteers. And every year there's about 100,000, 107,000 18-year-olds are eligible for conscription. The problem is a lot of them use the law of going to college to avoid their conscription until after college.

So for example, last year out of the 107,000 available, only 9,000 were conscripted. Everyone else went to college. So I recommend changing that law, making it 18-year-olds, everybody goes in, same time, now you have 100,000 conscripts available for war. That sends a deterrent message to China that Taiwan is more serious and they're going to make it more problematic for China to succeed. Second thing is I recommend that the females in Taiwan also do a one year of service, but they don't have to do it in the military.

They can do it in alternative areas such as hospitals, clinics or other alternative methods of serving their country for a year. Same thing, 18 year olds, everybody goes in. Third thing is there's 2 million eligible males to be in the reserves, but Taiwan only classifies 700,000 of them as being available or available. And of those 700,000, they only train about 120,000 a year for either one week or two weeks. That's insufficient. So I would amp up the numbers of trained reservists, not only numbers, but also time.

The United States, we have around 38 days a year that reserve is due their duty. Other countries like Israel have much more than that. So that's at the sort of the military level. I think that Taiwan's laws need to be changed. The legislative UN took away the military law that the United States, for example, the United States has military law applying to our service members. In Taiwan, they took it away from the military because the military was abusing its power. But the problem is, if you're a spy in the military, it goes to civilian court.

It doesn't go to military court. It should go to military court. And it should be prosecuted in that way. So there's lots of laws that Taiwan should change. But unfortunately right now, the legislative UN is controlled by the opposition. So these laws aren't going to be changed, but they need to be changed to make espionage. more less likely. And you can go over a lot of other things in the economy that they need to readjust.

For example, the training areas that they used to have for the military, they were sold off. They need to build up their capabilities. This sends a message that Taiwan is serious. And if Taiwan is serious about its own defense, more serious, then other countries will be more willing to help them. But if Taiwan is not going to push itself to show that it's willing to defend itself as a society, not just the military, but society needs to be totally engaged, then a lot of countries and people will feel, well, why should I try to help Taiwan when their own people don't do it? So that's the Taiwan skepticism part that people promote is, well, Taiwanese aren't going to fight,

they're going to give up, all this kind of stuff, but they need to promote this at a higher level. Politicians say, oh, we can't do it, elections, all this kind of stuff, but that's excuses to me. I always say, don't tell me what you can't do, tell me what you can do. And so these are suggestions that I've made. Obviously, some people don't like it. So, you know, 5% GDP should be invested in their defense. Israel's been doing it for over 45 years, 5% at a minimum, because they're serious about their defense. So on the U.S. side, we need to show Taiwan how to counter the PLA gray zone activities.

I don't see enough activity showing that we're pushing back. We do freedom of navigation operations, ships going through or planes going through, but that doesn't stop the PLA Navy or the Air Force from doing what they're doing. They're encroaching on Taiwan. Or the merchant marine, right? The blue hulls. Right. There's the maritime militia.

There's the Coast Guard. All these things are happening and I don't see the U.S. engaging anywhere in the sense of pushing back. For example, I would encourage the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Navy to support the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy and pushing back the Chinese, the PLA's encroachment of the Chinese Coast Guard encroachment on the Philippine Coast Guard, encroachment on the Philippine Coast Guard and on their exclusive economic zone we don't see that it's it's avoided so there's a lot of things that can be done but are not being done so that the deterrence we're not

pushing back and there's a famous quote or miss quote from Lenin which says if you have a bayonet you you shove if you meet mush you keep on pushing if you meet steel you withdraw China is like that if you don't show steel they're gonna keep on pushing and the US, Taiwan, everybody needs to push back and I don't think it's they're being they're pushing back hard enough and and China is just keeping keeping on pushing and so the deterrence is lost. The other aspect is the deterrence in the economic arena were entangled and so we're a lot of countries are afraid to push back on China because they're afraid that it's going to affect their

economy. Well and they're afraid that they won't get reelected if that economy and they're probably right to be if the economic reality was shifted. So this is a this is a big question. But ultimately if you don't push back they're going to keep on cooking the frog or eating the elephant bit by bit. And so you know you know when they show up at your door, you know, when they show up at your door, It's too late. See, you know, you, it's very interesting how you talk about deterrence because it says China

has created a very powerful form of deterrence through this economic entanglement, as you call it. So we hear about decoupling, but you don't see, you see communist China decoupling on its own terms with the industries that it wants to have decoupled as opposed to, you know, decoupling on terms which are favorable to the United States and free nations. So the United States is decoupling, or I like to say, is disentangling itself. For example, in rare earth metals, right? They're building up their capability not only internally to the United States, but as an alliance

of countries, they're starting to build up the mining and production and all this, this whole supply chain outside of China. So that's an example of disentanglement. And this disentanglement is strategic. There are certain things you don't want an potential adversary or actual adversary to have control over. And one of them is rare earth. Another one is pharmaceuticals. So as long as China has a huge market in the pharmaceuticals, we're also kind of at a disadvantage.

And so what we need to do is prioritize all the areas that China has monopolies on or at least control over. And we need to figure out what's the most important thing that we need to disentangle ourselves. Because if we don't, and there's a conflict, we're going to find ourselves in a big problem. And that's why a lot of these countries are afraid to do anything. It's because they know that China has control over their economy. A strategic thinking has to be developed. You can't disentangle from China overnight. It has to be strategically planned and executed.

So that's why the rare earth thing is really good. But no one's talking about pharmaceuticals. They're just as important. Germont, a quick thought as we finish. I'm optimistic that Taiwan, the United States and Taiwan's allies are going to step up to the problem. We see that in Japan. We see that in the leadership of Takeichi

and Marcos in the Philippines. And we see it in President La Chingda's leadership here to try to get whole society involved in preparing for disasters and including man-made disasters, i.e. war. I'm more pushy because I can see the storm coming, perhaps maybe clearer than other people. I just wish they could go faster and get ready quicker.

But I'm optimistic. And in the process, I think we are learning a lot about ourselves and how we can adapt to dealing with an aggressive, totalitarian, authoritarian, communist regime that has aspirations to take over the world. and if we see that and we understand it, then I think we will be able to figure out how to deal with it. Well, Germont Le Lari, it's such a pleasure to have had you on. Thank you very much. Again, thank you for the honor. Thank you all for joining Germont LeLauri and me on this episode of American Thought Leaders.

I'm your host, Jan Ye Kellick.