America's Talking - After Conviction, Trump Draws Crowd in Phoenix Heat

Episode Date: June 8, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has kicked off a western U.S. campaign tour, stopping in Phoenix on Thursday. Though the rally was held indoors at the Dream City Church, the heat outside of the event sent several people to the hospital, according to multiple news reports. The National Weather Service issued an excessive heat warning until Friday night for the Phoenix area, noting highs reaching near 110 degrees later in the day. Like previous events held at the church, Thursday's event, which was held by Trump-allied Turning Point Action, was expected to draw upward of 3,000 people.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxxFull story: https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/article_16d295b0-2461-11ef-9608-571bae01b13d.html  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to America in Focus, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAulb, chief content officer at Franklin News Foundation, publisher of the Center Square Newswire service. We are recording this on Friday, June 7th. Former President Donald Trump held his first campaign rally last night, Thursday night, before a large crowd in the Arizona heat. His first since being convicted last week of 34 counts of falsifying business records to hide payments made to a former porn actress and exchange for her silence about an alleged affair that Trump denies ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Despite the conviction, Trump maintains significant leads over President Joe Biden in polling. Joining me to discuss that fallout from the convictions and its impact on the presidential race is Casey Harper, Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief for the Center Square. Casey, let's start with the impact

on the upcoming rematch of the 2020 election. It doesn't seem early on, at least, that the jury's verdict is hurting Trump in any way. Yeah, I mean, this is, anyone who tells you, Dan, that they know exactly what's going on here and how this is going to impact is really lying, because we are in, we are beyond uncharted, unprecedented territory for American politics. I mean, the idea of, you know, we've never had a president be convicted like this. We've never had that happen in such a divided political climate. I mean, on the heels of, you know, riots around the country during BLM and then, you know, January 6th and everything happened to that. And, and, and now a convicted presidential candidate.

We're in uncharted territory. And so I think there is kind of a degree of humility of like, wow, what is even going on? But with that being said, I mean, I think there's a lot of conservative pundits who want to say that this is only good for Trump and it's just going to rally the base. You know, I think this still has the potential to be devastating for the campaign if Trump ends up in jail. I think that's really the line. I don't think conviction, Dan, is really the red line that's going to change things.

The red line is, does Trump go to jail? Is Trump behind bars not able to go on TV, not able to post online, not able to defend himself and get his message out there? If he ends up in jail, I think it really has the potential to be devastating. However, right now, the conviction has not been a fatal wound for him in the way maybe his opponents had hoped. As you pointed out, his rallies are big. I think it definitely will rally the base. As long as he's still able to go to these campaign rallies and say, they're trying to put me in jail. It's me against you. If I wasn't here, then that you'd be next. You know, that's his whole message. Trump's whole message is that I'm standing between you and the evil establishment, the deep state, all that. And so in a way, getting convicted kind of proves his point that there's his argument that there's a corruption targeted against the American people. And he's the only thing standing between the deep state and the American people.

I mean, so I think some ways it helps his message. It puts a center of attention back on him, which is good for Trump. So as long as he can go out in these rallies, make that case, he's good. But if he ends up behind bars, I think it really does change the calculus. I mean, Dan, you remember our polling. We did a Center Square voter's voice polling. And I believe, you know, 84% I think of Trump supporters, I could be a little off here, but about, you know, it was about 84% said that they would still support Trump if he were convicted. So, I mean, that's pretty strong.

But at the same time, it seems like there might be some on the margins who say, I can't vote for him if he's convicted. At the same time, maybe getting convicted increases the enthusiasm and gets more turnout on the base so that nobody stays home this election. We're in uncharted territory, and it's hard to predict. Casey, to that point, two new polls came out this week in North Carolina. One was conducted completely after, or the entirety of the polling was conducted after the jury verdict was announced. The other straddled the jury verdict. Two days, people were polled to North Carolina, two days before the conviction and two days

after the conviction. And both the poll that straddled the conviction had trumped up by eight points. in North Carolina, one of the swing states in this election, and the one that was conducted completely after had Trump up by eight points. That's a significant lead, particularly when you're talking about one of these swing states. So just based on that poll, certainly the convictions did not hurt President Trump. Then he was in Arizona last night in the heat of Arizona, where some people who went had to be taken to the hospital for heat stroke, et cetera. He drew thousands of people to that rally. So it doesn't seem like it's going to have a big impact on the election.

Of course, Casey, Trump faces three other separate indictments, one in Florida, one in Georgia and one in Washington, D.C. All of the developments in those cases seem like they're not going to go to trial any time before the November election. Any thoughts on that? Yeah, I think that's right. I think those are getting drawn out beyond November. And so this is the main conviction to tangle with. And as far as pointing out, too, that Trump is called on the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene. Of course, the Supreme Court is already being asked to just consider this idea of presidential immunity, particularly around Trump's actions in January, around January 6th, which he says he, you know, he did those actions as president in his official capacity and shouldn't be able to be, you know, prosecuted for what was kind of a political decision at while in office. And that's kind of, that's a tough one for the Supreme Court to wrestle with. It sets some serious precedent. And I believe they have. heard oral arguments in that case. So, you know, that Supreme Court case could provide some cover for Trump, although it's not directly related to these New York charges. Again, but so, you know, I think that's something to think about to keep an eye out on the Supreme Court. And then I still think the

red line is really is jail here. If he's not able to campaign, I think it will hurt him. Right now, though, the conviction, it just kind of proved that Trump is Teflon. They're always coming after him. And I think that's because there's no new information here, Dan. I mean, there was no one really doubting that Trump was with Stormy Daniels. I mean, he was with an adult film actress. You know, he's been divorced multiple times. He's had all these kind of this playboy lifestyle. That wasn't new information to people. People already knew that when they voted for him last time. So I think that's why this conviction didn't do too much for me. People are not that upset that he filled out the wrong paperwork as he's accused of doing, you know, through his lawyer. I don't think

that's going to move the needle. But the jail, I still think going behind bars has that potential. The Republicans hold their national convention in July. Trump is scheduled to be sentenced just days before that. So that'll be interesting. One last thought here, Casey. Trump and Biden are scheduled to debate later this month on June 27th. President Biden has shown in public appearances significant cognitive losses. If anyone who saw the D-Day celebration or commemoration, I should say, yesterday, Thursday,

where Biden, his Joe Biden, his wife, you know, let him out in the middle of the ceremony because of what looked like something going on there. I mean, real quick, what do you expect from the debate? I still don't, not sure the debates are actually going to happen. I think that maybe the Biden team is looking for an excuse to cancel them. So I think it's 50-50 on where those debates happen. It looks like they will not have an audience for them, which hurts Trump. But it's going to be more of the same.

A lot of yelling, a lot of Biden struggling to speak, and probably, probably people who had their heels dug in, not really changing their minds. Casey, thank you for joining us today. Listeners can keep up with the ongoing presidential election at thecentersquare.com.