America's Talking - Analysis: Trump Tariffs Could Cancel Out Benefits of GOP Tax Cuts

Episode Date: July 19, 2025

(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump's tariffs could cancel out the economic benefits of the GOP's tax cuts, according to a new analysis from the Tax Foundation. "Our analysis finds the current U.S.-imposed and scheduled tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them," according to a report from the national nonprofit. The tax cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to cost about $4 trillion over the next decade, or about $3 trillion factoring in economic growth. At the same time, Trump's tariffs are expected to drag on the U.S. economy.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxxFull story: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_eaed6a01-7d70-41ba-9ddf-b5f4ac95b2cb.html Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Greetings and welcome to America's Talking, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAelope, Chief Content Officer at Franklin News Foundation, publisher of the Center Square Newswire Service. President Donald Trump is releasing new details about tarotcy plans on other countries' exports to the U.S. And there is at least anecdotal evidence that businesses are pushing those costs off onto consumers. Joining me to discuss this is the Center Square's tariff guru, Brett Rowland. Brett, you have been covering the president's on-again, off-again tariffs since he's. first took office. Now that many of his tariffs are on again or will be soon, the tax foundation

is out with a new analysis. What does the analysis say, Brett? So this analysis is pretty interesting, and it comes right on the heels of an interesting week with the Fed. So the analysis essentially says that the big, one big, beautiful bill act and it's all the tax cuts in there are essentially going to be undone or not nearly as effective because of the tariffs. So while he's taking, while Trump is taking taxes away on one hand, he's adding them back on the other. So they said essentially that the tariffs not only wouldn't pay for the tax cuts, but would essentially cancel out some of the benefits of the one big beautiful bill, which I thought was pretty interesting. But that, that's just one piece of the news this week on tariffs. The other big thing was that, as you mentioned, the prices started to show up

in some at least anecdotal federal evidence. So the Fed came out with its beige book yesterday, and that said that essentially that businesses are passing these costs directly onto consumers, not all of the costs of the tariffs, but at least part of the cost. So we're starting to see for the first time since Trump took office and since these tariffs came out that, you know, the real world effect on American businesses and consumers. So that's been, it's been a pretty interesting week. And Trump has, um, the White House, of course, responded to, um, the news from the Fed saying that they don't think tariffs are pushing out prices. And of course, Trump is out this morning, too, with, uh, more, um, uh, attacks on the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell. So, um, it's been, it's been an interesting week.

and I think it's going to even get more interesting. Now, Dan, have you noticed any price increases in your daily life? You know, I haven't. There was a new inflation report out that this week that did show inflation tipped up a bit in June, which, you know, if it continues to tick up, then certainly you, me, and everyone else will probably start to notice. But I haven't. How about you, Brett? I don't know that I've seen it at the grocery store or any of the places that I go on a regular basis.

But I also don't, I'm also not the prime shopper in my, or the key shopper in my household. So I don't know if I would notice as quickly as other people might. And, but the Fed did note in its report, its page book report that consumers are certainly becoming more price sensitive. And so that as those numbers creep up and the Fed said that the numbers, prices, could go up further this summer, especially as more of these tariffs come online. It's important to note, too, on that tax foundation analysis that that assumed that all the tariffs that are in place now would stay in place. And we certainly know that that's not the case. From the White House this week, we heard that, you know, many of Trump's, the letters that he's

been sending out to other countries, just essentially telling them what he wants them to pay in tariffs. we know that at least 25 of those went out more are coming out this week so nations across the globe are getting these letters with Donald Trump's large signature on them saying you know this is what you're going to pay but I guess the thing that we don't know is is what his end game is he's you know sort of publicly negotiating with all these other countries but what exactly he wants to do at the end of all this how how he wants the market to operate that part to me remains unclear. I was going to say, Brett, the White House has said from day one that this is a negotiating tactic to try and get deals across the board, but also on other policy issues. For example, the tariffs he's threatened and imposed and pulled back and then reestablished on like Canada and Mexico. He says it's about border issues and fentanyl smuggling into the U.S. through those countries. So it's not necessarily all tied to the economy in some of these instances. And when it comes to the European Union, it has to do with defense spending. Donald Trump has said that they've

relied too much on the U.S. to defend NATO's borders. And he wants them to increase spending on defense, which is something that he did get a win on earlier this summer. Yeah, he did get a big win there. And I think that the interesting step will be to see what he sort of wants in the end. So we know that he wants to lower, shift the tax burden away from U.S. family. We know that he wants to lower the deficit or reduce the deficit. And so he's got big plans for these tariffs. But where we go with them, I think is going to be a little bit unknown at this point. Because as you said, the White House has made it clear that he's negotiating.

And the White House likes to call him the negotiator-in-chief and all these other names. So we'll have to see where things end up. And the big deal for us, for everyday Americans, is what is it going to mean to us spending on things like groceries, gasoline, other energy costs to the air condition or heat our homes? So, and as we mentioned, the consumer price index did tick up in June by 0.3%, which is a bit higher than economists want to see. But that was up from 0.1% in May, which is low inflation. So, you know, a two-month window is not necessarily the be-all and tell-all of how things are going to go. And of course, with Trump's negotiations, who knows what's next step. So we'll see.

Final closing thought, Brett. Yeah, it's going to be, I think it's going to be an interesting ride for the next summer or throughout the summer. Hopefully we don't see prices go up too much. But where Trump lands with his tariffs will definitely be, it'll be interesting to see. Thank you for joining us today. Brett, listeners can keep up with this story and more at thecenter square.com. You know,