America's Talking - Analysis: Trump's proposed tariff rebate would cost twice as much as tariffs

Episode Date: November 14, 2025

(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump has again floated the idea of sending Americans $2,000 from tariff revenue, but a new analysis suggests the import taxes won't bring in enough money to cover the proposed checks. Trump's tariff rebate suggestion comes a week after the Supreme Court sharply questioned his authority to impose tariffs under a 1977 law that he has used to justify the bulk of the tariffs announced on April 2, which he dubbed "Liberation Day" for U.S. trade. The cases challenging Trump's tariff authority remain pending before the nation's highest court, but even if the revenue source were not in question, Trump could face challenges in getting the checks out to taxpayers. Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxxRead more: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_88d156dd-cb20-493d-9b9f-ded4e379a03f.html Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Greetings and welcome to America's Talking, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAulb, executive editor of the Center Square Newswire Service. President Trump has floated sending U.S. taxpayers $2,000 dividend checks from the tariff revenue the country has collected. But a fiscal watchdog says the proposal would cost the federal government much more than the tariffs are bringing in. Joining me to discuss this is the Center Square's tariff guru, which I'm sure he's happy to be called all the time. Brett Rowland. Brett, let's start with the president's. proposal what are the details okay so we don't know too much yet but there's um there's a lot here um so

we know that uh on sunday um trump proposed sending two thousand dollars to most americans um he he hasn't hit on a limit an income limit but he it sounds like he wants to exclude high earners but he sounds like he wants to give everyone a check um a sort of terrible rebate check. Now, if you are of the school that you are paying these tariffs, then it's kind of like you might get some of your own money back from the government after a tax hike. But if you don't feel like you're paying the tariffs, then it may be a $2,000 check. But not everyone's going to get one. We know at least that much. He said high income earners would be excluded. He did follow up with some additional comments. So we don't know a ton. And Trump does make a lot of announcements.

via social media. And this one was no different. But on Wednesday, the white, we reporters asked Carolyn Levitt at the White House, the press secretary, if Trump was committed to making this happen. And she said that the White House was fully behind it. Trump's talking with his economic advisors, exploring all legal options. But the other big piece of this that's missing is this would require legislation. And we haven't, we've seen some legislation pop up. Josh Holly from Missouri filed legislation earlier this year that would give rebates of up to $2,400 per family. It's structured a little bit differently than what Trump has proposed. That could be one vehicle, but that that bill has essentially stalled. And now that the government's reopened, maybe it'll

get more attention. Maybe that with Trump putting pressure on it could get more attention. But so far, seen no movement on it at all. The other thing that the White House was asked about was earlier this year, you may remember we were, the idea was floated for similar refund checks from Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency. Those checks never materialized. So whether this one will happen, I think it's too early to say. Brett, you reported this week that the Committee for a responsible federal budget said that it's actually quoting you directly from your story, the math doesn't work because Trump's, when you do the math, $2,000 dividend on checks for each individual taxpayer added up, it's going to be more than what the tariffs had brought in.

So, right. So they did a pretty quick analysis after this was proposed. They essentially assume that it would follow the COVID-19 check rules. So like, and there's a few assumptions in there, right, that are built in. But they said essentially that it would cost about 600 billion. And right now, Trump's tariffs are on track to bring in about 300 billion. So they're saying that it's not going to work. And the checks would end up being more than the value of the tariffs. Now, there's been a lot of estimates as to how much tariff revenue will bring in. Scott Besson has floated some numbers. Trump floats different numbers each day or seemingly. But a lot of those numbers, it's hard to, like, recreate those numbers or figure out where they're coming

from. So there's still a lot of unanswered questions here, but we do know, in the strongest terms possible yesterday, Carolyn Levitt said that this is something that Trump is committed to doing, that he wants to get done. Whether lawmakers share that appetite will have to see, I think that that's really what it's going to come down to is whether they, whether Congress can put together legislation that would make this happen. Now, Congress has given Trump a lot of leeway since he took office, so we'll see what happens. But Trump also hasn't gotten everything he wants from lawmakers. So this one could be tough, especially given the cost and the uncertainty of tariff revenue, right? So we've been talking about tariffs for a long time now. And one of the key things

about the bulk of the tariff revenue is coming in through tariffs under a 1977 law that has been challenged in the courts. So that challenge is still playing out. The case remains pending before the U.S. Supreme Court. We heard oral, or the high court heard oral arguments back on November 5th. And they had a lot of questions about the tariff authority and that kind of thing. So it's early and there's a lot of unknowns. We just don't know yet. Speaking of the Supreme Court's case, do we, do any idea when they're going to issue a ruling on that? No, I keep asking that question. I've been asking some of the lawyers involved

in the case. No one wants to offer a prediction yet. We do know that it'll come before the end of the session in June, but there's, the Supreme Court did expedite this. So they heard oral arguments pretty quickly. They set tight deadlines for filing briefs in the case, and that has all gone on schedule so far. So there are some people who think that this could come much earlier than June, a ruling on the tariffs. So we'll have to see. But an adverse ruling here, I think, in my opinion, would kill this idea of a tariff rebate check. But Trump always surprises me, so I hate to predict too much. Dan, have you already made up plans to spend yours or are you?

No, I'm skeptical. Brett, I'll admit that. The one other thing we have to point out, too, is the federal debt, U.S. national debt is more than $38 trillion and growing rapidly. If this plan, if this, the quick analysis that was done by the committee for responsible federal budget, if their numbers are close or right, while $2,000, per individual taxpayer sounds good individually, if it's going to add to the budget deficit and then add on to the federal debt, that doesn't seem smart to me. So here's a couple of problems with Trump's tariff revenue. Yes, a lot of it's coming in.

We don't know exactly how much. But Trump also wants to spend it in so many different ways that it's unclear which way he's going to go with it. So he's proposed these rebate checks. He's proposed paying down the national debt. He's proposed a few other things. Now, Scott Bassett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, he has been a little more, he's sort of had the breaks on a little bit more about this idea, saying that, you know, maybe the rebates in the form of the lower taxes we saw from the one beautiful, one big beautiful bill act. But the other part of this is that that one big beautiful bill act, the tariffs might have covered the cost of that.

but they can't cover the cost of that plus tariff rebate checks plus other things. So that debt is standing out there. It's growing each day. I try to check on it once a week. And the number, I assure you, is still going up with no end in sight and no significant plan from either Congress or the administration to address that debt. Brett, thank you for joining us today. Listeners can keep up with this. $2,000 check plan by President Trump, maybe, and more at the center square.com.