America's Talking - Ballot Battles, Impeachment Inquiry, Indictments Disrupt Election Cycle

Episode Date: January 6, 2024

The Republican primary’s Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15, the first chance for voters to determine who they want to represent their party in November's presidential election. Iowa's January caucuses are a regular tradition for a presidential primary season that – this time around – has been unusually enshrouded in indictments, impeachment inquiries and lawsuits heading into election year. Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/america-in-focus/support Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to America in Focus, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAulov, Vice President of News and content at the Franklin News Foundation, publisher of the Center Square Newswire service. Joining me again today, as he does each and every week is the Center Square's Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief Casey Harper. Casey, how are you? Doing good, Dan. How are you?

I am doing fine. This is the first America in Focus of 2024, Casey. We're recording this on Friday, January, January. 5th, 2024, of course, is a major election year with voters across the country to decide who the next American president will be. Of course, all of the U.S. House of Representatives seats will be on there. About a third of U.S. Senate seats will be on the ballot in November. For months, we've been talking about all the polls that are out there, including the Center Square's voters' voice poll. But voters will finally begin to get their official say, and that's in less than two weeks when the Iowa caucuses take place.

January 15th. Casey, this is going to be a crazy election year with both frontrunners facing a number of issues. Tell us what to expect heading into the first Iowa or the first caucuses, the first primary of sorts, in less than two weeks. Yeah, I mean, you're, you've characterized it correctly, which is, you know, I wrote a story about this for the centers square.com. And you put the headline on it, chaos when it comes to these ballot battles, when it comes to the impeachment inquiry into the President Joe Biden, this election year is going to be crazy. And it's kicking off here in Iowa. And I think this is going to be, well, it provides a few things. For President Trump, you know, I've talked to different experts and analysts about this. And for President Trump,

he really has, all he has to do is maintain what the polls say about him, which is he is dominant. no one can catch up to him. He is the inevitable pick for the GOP primary, right? And if he's able to dominate in the polls in the way that, you know, the polls show him or dominate in Iowa the way the polls have him, then that's really good. It's not enough for him to just win. He has to win decisively because ultimately he's trying to push, you know, Florida Governor Ronda Santis, South Carolina former governor Nikki Haley, who were at CNN Town Hall last night, by the way, which was, I don't think we'll move the needle too much. But, you know, he's got to push them out of the race.

Vivek Ramoswamy, who seems pretty loyal to him anyway. But he's trying to push these guys out of the race so he can save his money for going against Joe Biden. Because that's the thing is these primaries are expensive and they drain donor money. They drain, you know, candidates, energy and resources. And the longer the primary drags out, the less time they can focus on what are swing states in the general election. So for Trump's perspective, he wants to end this decisively and quickly so he can focus on the general election. For, you know, for Ron DeSantis, his campaign has been on a steady decline ever since Trump was rated by the FBI a little over a year ago. And so he has to, his goal and is to show that he actually is still relevant, that he can still take on Trump.

And it's definitely an uphill battle for him. But if he outperforms the polls, he doesn't even have to beat Trump. But if he's up there close to tying Trump or something, then it could start to shift the narrative around him that he does. you know, he can play the Trump card, which is don't listen to the polls. It's about the real American people support me, regardless of what these DCLE polls say, right? So for Nikki Haley, she's focused her attention more in New Hampshire. She hasn't put as much time and money, you know, in focus and even played up her role in Iowa as much as DeSantis has. So I think she's just trying to not get destroyed in Iowa and then perform well in New Hampshire.

If she's able to roughly tie DeSantis in Iowa and then beat him in New Hampshire, then I think that will check the boxes for her. But it does raise the question of, is it going to be enough to beat Trump? In a normal year, I would say, what is normal year with Trump? In a normal year, I would say no. But the caveat here is that, as you know, and as we've talked about many times, the former president faces nearly 100 criminal indictments, not to mention efforts to remove him from the ballot in several states. And if any of that is successful, it could make second place for the GOP nomination more important than ever. Yeah. You mentioned the New Hampshire primaries about a couple weeks after the Iowa caucuses.

And then we get into like one primary after another after another. Super Tuesday is in March. More than a dozen states are there. So fairly early on in the year, first quarter, we're going to have a better idea how this plays out in the GOP primary. Complicating things, though, of course, is the four separate federal indictments against the former president, Donald Trump, and how that could throw perhaps curveballs into this situation. We've talked about it before, of course, Casey. What if Trump, which all indications are from the polling, that he's going to walk through this primary season

with very little resistance from voters. What happens like if in April or May something new happens or, you know, he does go to trial and he's convicted? I mean, how does that play? I've never seen, of course, Trump is the first former president to face federal criminal charges. It's unprecedented. I mean, I just don't know how that's going to play out during the primary season. Yeah, I don't think anyone does. I mean, we're in an uncharted territory when it comes to a former president, current candidate,

facing so many legal charges. I mean, there, a lot of people have opinions. They've written analysis about, well, it'll play out this way or here's what it says. But ultimately, no one really knows because it is uncharted. And the courts can make a judgment call for the president in a way that is just kind of unique. So if he, right now Trump and his team are trying to delay these criminal proceedings beyond the election. And I think they actually have. have a really good chance of succeeding in that. Trump has many trial dates, you know, court dates, you know, smattered throughout 2024. But I think they have a really good chance of delaying any decisions, any rulings before election. Maybe not for sure. But I think it's realistic that he

could delay everything until after the election. Because honestly, that's, that's part of what you pay for these expensive lawyers for, right, Dan. I mean, you, even if someone is guilty, they are buying time. You, you hire them so that they can delay things for years. years so you get time with your family before having to go to prison. That's like a textbook play for wealthy individuals who are facing this kind of thing. So that is not beyond the pale. That would not be unusual at all if he could do it. So that raises a question, can he pardon himself? That's a whole separate issue. But I think for him, he just wants to push it past the election and then deal with it when he's president, when he has a lot more power. He can pardon himself.

And then that will certainly be challenged, but then that'll have to go to court. And by the time it's all resolved. It might be kind of too late. He's been president for three years or something. So, yeah, the other question is if he gets convicted before, I don't know. I mean, you know, when his home was raided, it made him a martyr and his polling, you know, DeSantis was doing pretty well against Trump. But as soon as the FBI raided his home, that was the turning point. And that is when Trump soared in the polls, he became a martyr, Republicans rallied around him, even establishment Republicans who had been skeptical of him, they couldn't stand for the FBI rating, a former president. And so.

I don't know what you think, Dan. Yeah. Well, I just want to briefly touch on the Democratic side, Casey, we're almost out of time. Of course, President Biden isn't really facing much of a primary season, doesn't have a strong, legitimate challenger on the Democratic side. But there are questions about his candidacy as well. He's in his 80s. You know, he's shown visible signs of some issues physically and mentally. Of course, he's facing an impeachment inquiry by the U.S. House of Iraq.

representatives. A Democrats say that's all political. And I don't know that that will play much of a factor in the primary process. But there have been some Democrats, particularly behind the scenes, wondering, you know, if Biden is the best candidate for them, just very briefly. What are the chances that something crazy happens? And it turns out it's not Biden. Yeah, I mean, there's always a chance. I think you're right. It's not because of the impeachment. But what it is might be because of is because Trump is beating Biden in, you know, five or six battleground states right now. Biden is older. His impeachment inquiry may not remove him from office, but it gives Trump cover, you know,

because Trump can say, hey, I'm facing this stuff, but look at Biden. He's being impeached. His son did this and that. And so it kind of muddies the waters enough to cover for Trump. It's always possible, Dan, but they're running out of time, that's for sure. Of course, there's going to be plenty more to come. I imagine this is going to be a weekly topic on one of our episodes. We record three episodes a week.

Casey and I have Americas in Focus. If you're enjoying this one, check out the other two at AmericasTalking.com. As I said, I imagine we'll be talking about this primary season just about every week, at least through the first quarter of the year. Listeners can keep up with this story and more at thecenter square.com. For Casey Harper, I'm Dan McKeelope. Please subscribe and thank you for listening. Knowledge is power, and you deserve to know what happens

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