America's Talking - Census projections show red states to see gains in U.S. House seats, electoral college

Starting point is 00:00:00 Greetings, everyone, and welcome to America's Talking, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAaleb, executive editor of the Center Square Newswire Service. The U.S. Census Bureau released updated population estimates this week, and the data shows slower growth largely due to the Trump administration's policies effectively closing the border. But it also shows significant migration from mostly blue states to red states. Joining me to discuss this is the Center Square reporter, Andrew Rice. Andrew, let's start with the states that showed the most population growth and the low. least. And then we'll get into what that could mean for the number of congressional seats and

Starting point is 00:00:34 electoral college votes the state's received after the next official census in 2030. So which state showed the most growth, Andrew? Right. We saw a lot of states across the South show a lot of growth. Overall, the state that showed the most growth from the census data was South Carolina. South Carolina claimed that top spot in growth adding almost 80,000 new residents between July 24 and July 2025. That showed that the state saw an increase of about 1.5% in its population. And a lot of it was driven by domestic migration, rather than international migration. Certainly a factor at play with the Trump administration's crackdown on migration at the border. Following behind South Carolina, Idaho saw a 1.4% increase in state population, and North Carolina saw a 1.3% increase. These

Starting point is 00:01:29 are some really interesting numbers to look at because while these states don't have larger general population than other states in the country, like Texas, for example, they were outpacing in growth. Texas reported only 1.2% growth in his population, according to the census data, which is still considerable and puts it in the top five of growing states, but it was interesting to see how South Carolina outpaced it, as well as Idaho and North Carolina, really outpacing a state that is, on the whole, much larger, like Texas. When we're looking at some regional areas, every region across the country

Starting point is 00:02:05 did experience population growth, but notably, the Midwest region saw a significant amount of growth, significant, especially compared to previous years. The Midwest was the only region in the state where every region in the country, excuse me, where every state gained population. And states like Ohio and Michigan

Starting point is 00:02:28 were some examples of that. Ohio saw an additional 11,000 migrants come to the state in the past year, and Michigan saw almost 1,700. Now, you have to look at the flip side, of course, of all of that. So on the other hand, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, and West Virginia all saw population declines. Those are the only five states to see population declines according to this data. And just thinking about that, California alone lost more than than 9,000 people this year due to migration or natural causes. And this is all net migration. So it counts the people who moved in from other states.

Starting point is 00:03:08 It counts to people who moved out to other states. And of course, the international migration, which has slowed significantly. Now, there will be ramifications to this domestic migration when people flee one state and head to another state. because every 10 years after the 10-year census, which is up again in 2030, there's congressional apportionment, meaning the number of seats in Congress and the U.S. House, the number of seats they have every 10 years changes based on this population trend. You dug into that with the census data, Andrew. What did you see? Right, yes. I was able to dig into some of these apportionment projections. And to be clear, some of these are just projections at this point based on what census data could be. But as you said, reapportionment happens every 10 years with the census. So that next reapportionment will happen in 2030. But we can already get a good look from this census data to see that some states are going to gain significantly and some are going to lose significantly. one projection that I've reported on and seen was from the American redistricting project,

Starting point is 00:04:27 which is backed by some more Republican support. But that project estimated that Texas would gain four congressional seats and electoral votes come the next census if trends continue in the way that they have been. On the other hand, California could lose as much as four of these seats. Additionally, these seats across the south, seats could be lost. Across the south seats would be gained, excuse me. And in the Midwest and northeast areas, some of these seats would be lost. So while populations have increased, relatively, there is some decreases. So for example, North Carolina, Georgia, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona are projected to gain at least one additional seat, electoral vote or congressional seat. Whereas on the other hand,

Starting point is 00:05:19 states like New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois could lose a seat. This is really, seems to be really troubling for some prominent Democrat leadership. And they've called for enhanced enforcement measures to prevent against some of these intense losses. Because really, Dan, what this means is if these losses occur, especially across these rust belts, States, the blue wall that used to be known as the Midwest as the blue wall, Democrats would have to earn more than just the blue wall to win key elections moving forward. Of course, when you see significant migration like you have from California, the people who leave, maybe they voted Democrat, maybe they vote a Republican, but they're going to bring their

Starting point is 00:06:13 same voting patterns to the states where they move to, whether it be Arizona or Texas or not, So it's not a guarantee that these red states are going to lose a bunch of congressional seats to, these blue states, excuse me, are going to lose a bunch of congressional seats to Republicans, just because the voting in the regions will change with this kind of migration. And as you pointed out up top there, Andrew, we still have five more years to go till the 2030 census. So this latest census estimate that was released this week covers about half of that 10-year time period. But as you said again, if the trend continues that way, there is going to be a significant change in the number of congressional seats that each day has. But it's not just congressional seats too, either.

Starting point is 00:07:06 The number of electoral college votes each state has impacts the presidential election. Is that right? That's exactly right. So electoral votes are determined based on the amount of Senate seats, which is two for every state, and the amount of congressional districts is a combination of those two numbers. So as congressional districts get added or taken away from certain states, those electoral votes will also change. The amount of electoral votes a state has will also change with that. They could increase or decrease. So really, these congressional districts are really tied hand in hand with the electoral. votes because as they increase, so do the electoral votes. And as they decrease, it's the same situation there. So these do have far-reaching ramifications for future presidential elections if we're looking even beyond into 2032 where some of these overreapportionment issues could take place. Thank you for joining us today, Andrew.

Starting point is 00:08:06 The listeners can keep up with this story and more at thecentersquare.com.

America's Talking - Census projections show red states to see gains in U.S. House seats, electoral college

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