America's Talking - Feds: National Debt Will Be Nearly Twice as Large as U.S. Economy in 30 Years

Episode Date: July 2, 2023

The national debt will be nearly twice as large as the U.S. economy in 30 years, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects. That figure assumes no new major spending projects from Congress in that time, which is unlikely, meaning that debt levels could actually rise much more quickly. Conversely, Congress could slow that trend by cutting spending. Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/america-in-focus/support Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to America in Focus, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAulb, executive editor of the Center Square Newswire Service. Joining me again today is the Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief for the Center Square, Casey, Casey, we have some things to talk about, particularly when it comes to government spending. You wrote this week about a concerning U.S. Congressional Budget Office report that says debt is going to be double the U.S. economy within just a matter of years. What's going on here? Yeah, this is much less cheery than our Fourth of July celebration, but the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, which is the federal nonpartisan budget office that will, for example, score a bill, a piece of legislation and say how much it will cost. Taxpayers, I find it to be pretty reliable. It's usually trusted by both Republican and Democrats, Republicans and Democrats, just as to budget office, the official one for Congress. So they do their long-term budget outlooks. They look as much as

30 years into the future. And they say, if we continue with our kind of current level of spending and the obligations that we make in bills have made in bills, what's our outlook going to look like? And that's important because often, you know, you might pass a trillion dollar spending bill today, but the bill actually will spend that money for years. It doesn't just spend all the money that day, right? It'll spend it over several years. So we have spending obligations years into the future because of previous legislation, not to mention entitlements, you know, like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, that kind of thing.

And so what did the CBO find? Well, here's a big one. The national debt will be nearly twice as large, the U.S. economy in 30 years, Dan. And to think that our debt within, you know, I mean, not, that is like not a long time. And you think about the history of the country and economic terms. So if we don't have some major financial reform in, you know, we'll say maybe the next four or five presidents, which doesn't really seem that likely, then we are going to be heading off some kind of debt cliff. To give perspective on that, our deficits are also rising.

They're on trajectory to meet 10% of our GDP in that time. So expecting that our deficit will 10% of GDP in 2053. This is a quote from CBO. Over the past century, that level has been exceeded only during World War II and the coronavirus pandemic. So we're on track. And the other thing I want to say about this is this assumes that we don't initiate some new giant spending bills over the next 30 years, which is also not very likely.

Right. So the next president comes in and he wants to, say, build a wall that costs a trillion dollars. Or it's a Democrat who wants to increase Medicaid by a trillion dollars. then that will change this whole timeline and move it up much closer. Right. So this is assuming that we don't have new Congresses come in and spend more money that's not paid for. Casey, I would have assumed the opposite. I would assume Congress in response to this report called emergency meetings and say,

hey, we got to cut spending or this country's going to be ruined financially. That didn't happen? Yeah, no, it has not happened yet. It's a sad kind of, I guess, a prisoner's dilemma because when one party is in power, they want to spend money on all their pet issues. And then the next one is in power, they say, well, the previous party, they spent money on their issues. So we're not, you know, nobody wants to be the one who is fiscally responsible.

So if the Republicans are always fiscally responsible, the Democrats will spend on all their pet projects and vice versa. So I don't really know how this is going to happen. And we've been having debt problems like this for over a decade now. It's really gotten worse than the last decade. But I don't, you know, Congress is, you know, there's a few lawmakers who talk about fiscal responsibility. But, Dan, I don't know if you notice.

I mean, I remember when Republicans ran on fiscal responsibility and cutting spending, but they don't really do that anymore that I see. Some talk to talk, but Congress certainly does not walk the walk when it comes to that. A big concern, particularly for those who are approaching retirement age, is programs like Social Security and Medicaid that seniors, retired folks rely on, really, to cover their day-to-day expenses. And if Congress can't get spending under control, that's in jeopardy. There are talks about significant cuts to benefits such as Social Security and Medicaid because of Congress is out of control spending. Casey got 30 seconds to wrap us up. Yeah, I mean, I'll just give you a stat from Miami Guinness who leads a budget group.

She said that within a decade, trust funds for Medicare, Social Security, and highways will face insolvency. And if that's allowed to happen for Social Security, for instance, that'll meet a 26% across the board benefit cut for all seniors, regardless of how much they depend on the program. So I guess I'll leave you with that cheery note. Yeah, great. Good for me. Casey, thank you for your insight into this, but we are out of time. Listeners can keep up with this story and more at thecentersquare.com. For Casey Harper, I'm Dan McKeelam. Please subscribe. Thank you for listening and enjoy your independence day.