America's Talking - Inflation Rose More Than Expected in Latest Data

Episode Date: January 14, 2024

Consumer costs increased at an elevated level again in December, according to newly released federal economic data, raising new concerns about spiking inflation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday released the Consumer Price Index, a key marker of inflation, showing the cost of a range of every day goods and services for Americans rose more than expected. According to the federal data, the CPI rose 0.3% in December alone, a break from the recent months of very low inflation. Overall, prices rose 3.4% in the last 12 months. Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/america-in-focus/support Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Greetings and welcome to America in Focus, powered by the Center Square. I am Dan McAulb, Vice President of News and Content at the Franklin News Foundation, publisher of the Center Square Newswire Service. Joining me again today is the Center Square's Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief, Casey, how are things, Casey? Things are good, Dan. How about you? Things are good, except for the inches and inches of snow that I'm looking at falling outside my... Are you snowed in?

I will be probably in a matter of hours. We're supposed to get more than 12 inches of snow. know today, which today is Friday, December 12th, our recording time, Casey. We learned this week that if inflation again reared its ugly head in December, with consumer prices rising at an unhealthy rate, at the same time, the latest the Center Square voter's voice poll shows that inflation is American's top concern as we get into 2024, which also, of course, is a presidential election year. Let's start with the December data. Casey, what can you tell our listeners? Yeah, I mean, they can tell you that the consumer prices rose more than expected for the month of December.

This really bucked a trend for consumer prices of almost no increase or very, very little increase. And of course, that increase was very much welcomed by economists and Americans as well, who were used to seeing prices steadily rise and often spike in the first couple of years of the Biden administration in particular. In fact, since Biden took office, prices have risen about 17 percent. So that's why inflation data, which is something, you know, Dan, I mean, we've both been doing journalism for years. And monthly inflation data never had the level of media attention in the past that it does now. But there's good reason for that. It's that 17% number.

So the CPI, as it's called, the consumer price index rose 0.3% in December alone. That's 3.4% in the last 12 months. Now, if you look across, that's consumer goods and services. Different goods and different services rose or fell. You know, it's not a monolithic, but some interesting things that we did see was food prices, for instance, rose. The energy index rose 0.4%. We saw that the cost of shelter rose. Yeah, food prices rose 0.2%. Shelter prices rose half a percent. And so these aren't, it's not like you can avoid this rise in consumer prices if you just don't go to Macy's and you kind of tighten the budget. These are basic things. This is food. this is shelter and this is your energy bill. And so it's affecting all Americans. And I think we've seen in polling and we've just seen anecdotally that Americans are feeling the pinch on their budgets.

Well, let's talk about the polling, you, Casey, when it comes to inflation in the Center Square Voters Voice poll that we conducted just a few days ago. We asked that more than 2,500 likely voters throughout the country, what is their essentially biggest concern facing them heading in to 2024. And the number one response from voters was inflation getting worse, which in December we saw, we don't know what the trend's going to like heading into January and the rest of the year, but we did see elevated inflation again in December, 38%. And we offered voters who were polled a bunch of different potential responses, but 38% of likely voters said inflation. And that was far and away the top concern of voters who were surveyed. Yeah, and I don't want to be alarmist. I think this data does just put a big question mark on inflation and on the economy.

It's not necessarily a guaranteed exclamation point for 2024. We're not trying to be apocalyptic here. For instance, the producer price index data just came out and did see a decrease. So, you know, it's possible that maybe last, you know, last month, December, that is, was a blip, an anomaly on the radar that, you know, is going to be corrected and we're not going to see as a trend in 2024. But given. what we've seen over the last couple of years. It's a good question to ask and say, oh, is this happening again? Is it rising? Of course, we'll monitor that closely at thecensersquare.com and on this program. But I think, you know, another consideration, Dan, is the 2024 presidential election. Of course, our Center Square voters' voice poll asked about presidential candidates.

And if there's any candidate who's watching these numbers closely, it's President Joe Biden, who has, as I said, saw that 17 percent price increase. since he took office and then, you know, kind of curiously tried to label this biodynamics pushed, where he tried to take credit for the economy. And there are some good things about the economy. Unemployment has been relatively low. We have bounced back to to a pretty good degree from the COVID-era shutdowns, which really hurt the economy. So there have been some good economic markers, but he has labeled and branded this economy as his own. So if over 2024, this inflation continues to rise at the level that we saw in December with consumer price.

he's going to have a real problem on his hands in the polls and with everyday Americans. And the latest the Center Square Voters Voice poll indicates that Biden could actually be in trouble. You wrote about it this week at the center square.com. Trump has surpassed Biden in national polling in a hypothetical map. It doesn't sound like it's going to be a hypothetical matchup at this point, let's face it, but in a matchup between Biden and Trump in November, the 2,500 plus registered voters, likely voters that we talk to preferred Trump to Biden by four percentage points, which is outside of the 2% margin of error of the polling. Tell us a little bit about that. Yeah, and this is not just, hey, same old story. Trump is winning again. We have seen

Trump really increase his numbers nationally, steadily. And so there is a trend here in favor of Trump. There's no bones about it. This is a good poll for Trump and a bad poll for Biden. And even more, another interesting thing to look at is that Trump is outperforming Biden in several swing states. In fact, essentially all the swing states, Trump is outperforming Biden. Of course, the way American presidential politics is set up, it can really come down to two or three swing states. The national polling is very interesting. It affects fundraising. It affects the general sentiment towards candidates. But when it comes down to electoral votes, it might just be a couple of states. And at that state level, Trump is outperforming well. It's not like Trump is just winning nationally, but when you look into the numbers and dig into the states, he actually doesn't have a chance. It's not that way at all. Trump is looking good across every metric. And so I think the Biden campaign, if you're a Democrat listening, and I hope you are, I think there's going to be some unease. There's going to be some questions about why this very old candidate who's losing to Trump is being given a free pass. I think that's a question a lot of Democrats are asking, right? now, and we actually wrote about that question, Dan, at the center square at com, because we had one poll question about Michelle Obama. I don't know if you want to update our voters on this, because I thought it was our listeners, because I thought it was a very interesting question. Yeah, just briefly, to summarize, we asked if Democratic voters could wave a magic wand and

decide who the president should be. Michelle Obama surpassed President Biden in their responses. But just to close the loop on this, Casey, getting back to inflation, it being a presidential year, with Trump already leading Biden, both in the polls, both nationally and in the key swing states, if inflation continues to be elevated throughout 2024, we know a lot of people vote based on their pocketbook. And with the cost of everything significantly higher than before Biden took office, that could be a key factor on voters' minds when they do go to the polls.

But Casey, we need to wrap this up. Casey will be covering the first voters will be weighing in Monday in the Iowa caucuses. We talked about in a separate episode this week of America's Talking. So if you're enjoying this episode, go look for our other episodes this week at AmericasTalking.com. As I mentioned, Casey will be covering the Iowa caucuses Monday night. Check out his coverage at thecenter square.com. We are out of time for Casey Harper. I'm Dan McAulb.

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