America's Talking - Trump Campaign Boosted in Latest Poll

Episode Date: September 28, 2024

Newly released polling data may give fresh hope to the Trump campaign this week as Vice President Kamala Harris’ triumphant entry to the race fades and is replaced by the day-to-day grind of modern presidential campaigning. A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday shows Trump performing well in three key states, including a 5-point lead in the swing state of Arizona. The poll also showed Trump up by 2 points in North Carolina and up by 4 points in Georgia. Former President Joe Biden beat Trump in both Arizona and Georgia in 2020 by a narrow margin.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxxFull story: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_209f3ab8-79bf-11ef-9992-e36b8ff49348.html Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello and welcome to America in Focus, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAulip, Chief Content Officer at Franklin News Foundation, publisher of the Center Square Newswire Service. We are less than six weeks from the November 5th presidential election, and early voting has begun in a number of states, including my home state of Illinois. Polling shows the race remains incredibly tight. Joining me to discuss the race today is Casey Harper, Washington, D.C. Bureau chief for the Center Square. Casey, with voting already underway in a number of states, about six weeks out, this may sound cliche,

but in this election, every vote very much could count, particularly in the swing states. You wrote about some of these tight polls this week. What do they show? Yeah, I mean, we're really coming down to it, Dan. And cliche or not, some of these races that we're seeing in swing states are incredibly close. And the candidates know it. The money's going there at the polls. I'm checking the polls constantly, and we can talk about some of them. But they show within all these swing states, Dan, that they're within the margin of error. It's not like Trump is winning half of them and Harris is winning the other half.

So it's a tight race. No, all the swing states are within the margin of error, which can be sometimes a few thousand votes. I mean, we're talking in some cases, 0.1%, you know, I think the greatest one that I saw recently was like 1.9% lead, which is still, again, within the normal margin of error. So these states are all toss-ups. It's going to be incredibly close. We do have some big, you know, a few big landmarks coming up. We have Vance and Walls, the respective VP candidates, a debate scheduled on Tuesday.

I think that has the potential to be pretty consequential for the race, just because for so many people, Vance and Wals are unknown quantities. They're undefined. They're not nearly as popular, of course, as Trump is, as well as, you know, Kamala. So those introductions and first impressions can make a big impact on the vibe of the campaign. I think, I personally believe Harris has a little bit more to lose with that debate because Wals, we'll see how he does. I think he comes across is a bit odd. And Harris has a little more positive momentum that, you know, Wals could let the air out of that balloon. Now, Vance is a pretty, is a good debater and he is more of a known quantity. So he's a little bit more known. He's a little bit more controversial, but people know who he is. So I think Walls has the potential to make a good or a bad first impression and keep the momentum going or lose the momentum for Harris's campaign. I'll certainly be tuning in Tuesday night to that with the one and only debate between the vice presidential picks. Of course, as of right now, there's only been one debate between

former President Trump and Vice President Harris. Harris has agreed to a CNN sponsored debate. Trump so far has not the first debate between the two. Most critics across the country said it was on ABC that the moderators were biased against Trump and for Harris, constantly fact-checking Trump, not fact-checking Harris. So I can understand Donald Trump's reservations, but going back to the Vance Walls debate, which is this coming Tuesday. I'm interested. I'll be tuning in. I don't necessarily agree with you, though, that it could swing the election. I don't know that Too many voters vote based on who the vice presidential candidate it is. Push back on me there.

Well, Dan, as always, I'll be happy to tell you why you're wrong. No, I'm just kidding. I mean, of course, you know, VP, it's not as important as a presidential. If this race was clearly going one way or the other, I'd probably agree with you. But right now, because the race is so close, I think there's something to be said. If it moves the needle in one swing state by one point, that could be the difference for that entire state. It could change the momentum. It could change the narrative. Trump has been on kind of a bad streak momentum-wise after his performance in the last debate,

which he referenced. He was widely considered that he did not do well. And also I'll just say that, you know, this is a big night for Vance because Vance has the opportunity to inherit the America first mantle from Trump. And, you know, it's very realistic, Dan, that we could see Vance running for president in 2028. Trump has recently come out. and said he will not run again in 2028 if he does not win. So not to get too far ahead, but this is, we're probably looking at a very possible presidential nominee, even future president potentially, who is the most likely one to inherit the America First Movement.

He's very young. He could carry that mantle for a long time. So it's going to be really important to see how he does on the debate stage. There's been a lot made of his media interviews. I think he's done very well handling, you know, CNN. and other testy interviews in a good way. He has some controversial past comments that have come back to Biden, but recently he's done well under pressure. I don't know how well it's going to do on this national stage. I don't think anyone does. Maybe it won't swing the election, but I say since the race is so close, anything counts right now.

Casey, in the last minute or so that we have some pretty big developments this week and a somewhat related story, the two assassination attempts on former President Trump. One, prosecutors finally charged the second suspect with the attempted assassination, attempted assassination charges. Second, the U.S. Senate released a scathing bipartisan report on the Secret Service actions in the first assassination attempt. Do you think that has any bearing on how voters will, who they're selected? at the polls? I think it does. It may not make sense why because it doesn't change anyone's policies.

But, I mean, you saw it after the first assassination attempt. It was huge for Trump, although it was quickly sort of swept under the rug by all the chaos with Harris replacing Biden as a nominee. But, I mean, Elon Musk came out and endorsed Trump immediately after that assassination because he was so moved by how Trump responded. And I think a lot of people were moved by how Trump showed a sort of bravery and I don't know what you want to call it, tenacity, masculine courage, something when he said fight, fight, fight, when the shooter was still, you know, potentially out there. So I think that was a big moment for him. I think Trump does well any time the story is about him all the time.

That is how Trump thrives. That is how Trump wins. It's how he controls the narrative when the stories are about him. That's how he won in 2016. He controlled the cycle. And the media as they talk about him, they promote him. they remind people of him. And I think Trump sometimes does better when other people talk about him than when he speaks for himself, right?

So that's why the surrogates have also been so important. So I think it helps with enthusiasm. It also fits Trump's narrative, his theme that he is the one taking on the establishment for the American people. If Trump is the last line of defense in his world between the globalist democratic agenda and the average American. and that's why they're trying to take him out and you're next. That's kind of Trump's message. And so every assassination attempt just kind of reinforces that idea. Of course, we don't want that to ever be a part of our politics.

And hopefully, you know, the Senate and House just passed more protection for Trump. That's a good thing. I hope he is safe. There was Democrats and Republicans supported that unanimously. So hopefully we don't have to have another assassination segment, Dan. Hopefully not, Casey. Thank you for joining us. listeners can keep up with all election-related stories at thecentersquare.com.