America's Talking - Trump, Harris Hit the Home Stretch

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race with Election Day right around the corner. Trump hosted a rally at Madison Square Garden Sunday night, riffing off the fiery crowd and hitting on a range of topics in his typical style. The same day, Harris spoke at a lively rally of her own in Philadelphia in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxxFull story: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_deb232da-956c-11ef-b38b-dbcec8a96ada.html Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Greetings, everyone, and welcome to America in Focus, powered by the Center Square. I'm Dan McAulb, Chief Content Officer at Franklin News Foundation, publisher of the Center Square Newswire Service. We are recording this on Friday, November 1st. That means the November 5th general election is just days away. Joining me to discuss the presidential race is Casey Harper, Washington, D.C. Bureau Chief for the Center Square. Casey, just a few days out, where do things stand? Dan, this is a unique and very tight election. I mean, we've, we've been talking about it for weeks on this show, but here we are. Election Day is here. Every, you know, every day there's some new development, some new potential scandal or gaff that could move the needle. And the reason we're focusing on those gaff so much is because the race is so close. In fact, it's gotten even more close since we last talked nationally, Vice President Kamala Harris, her lead has dwindled down to, maybe less than a point, depending on which poll you look at maybe about a point earlier, just a month or two ago, it was about a three-point lead.

Now, that's pretty interesting because while, of course, the popular vote does not select the president, it does give us a window into how close the race will be. And some analysts were saying that Kamala Harris has to win, you know, the popular vote by maybe three points to win the election, which is pretty, which is pretty, interesting. So nationally, the race has gotten even closer, which could be a good sign for Trump, actually. And then in these swing states, it's interesting, it's kind of good and bad for Trump or Kamala, because Trump is doing well or has a slight majority lead in all seven of the closest swing states, you know. But there are some states where Trump really has to win to get his

path forward. You know, Pennsylvania in particular is one. I mean, it's not impossible for Trump to become president without winning Pennsylvania, but most analysts say that is a, you know, a really important state for him. And here we are, and it is as close as it can be a total toss-up. And so where are we then? We are just a couple of days out. No one knows who's going to win, and the race could not be tighter. So you referenced the swing states.

Those obviously are going to be the key to the electoral votes that are needed for one or the other to secure the White House. Trump holds slight leads according to real clear politics, polling average, and all of those swing states. but every single one of them are within the margin of error. So literally, this could go either way, correct? It could. And actually recent polling has shown maybe those swing states aren't even as much all in Trump's favor.

I mean, before, they were basically tied, but Trump had very slight leads. But if you look, actually, Harris has made a little bit of a gain in Michigan and Wisconsin. She's, you know, now the same averages are showing the same lead actually for Harris. And Trump is not winning all seven anymore. That's a brand new update. I misspoke there because now I'll just lay them out for you. Arizona, he's up by 2.4, which is a good margin. Pennsylvania, he's up by 0.3, which is, I mean, a toss-up.

I mean, what is it? That doesn't mean anything. That just means we're going to find out on Tuesday, hopefully who's going to win that state. This is important, though. North Carolina, he's up by 1.4. He's had some steady success there, and that's a really important state for Trump. Georgia, he's up by 2.6. That's a pretty good lead.

But Michigan and Harris is up by 0.8. And Wisconsin is up by 0.3. Let's see. And then the other states, I mean, Nevada, Trump has it up by almost a point. And the other states, you know, kind of once used to be swing states or some people always hope that people always say Texas is going to go blue. But Trump's up by seven points there. Trump's up by seven points in Ohio. I mean, you remember, Dan, it used to be that if you won Florida at Ohio, you were the president.

But Trump's going to win both of those, almost unless something crazy happens. You know, New Mexico and Virginia, Harris has slated to win those by about six or seven points. So in Minnesota as well, she's up by five. So Harris has made some gains in the swing states, but Trump has made gains in the national polling. I think what this boils down to is it's too close to call. As long as these swing states are this close to end, it's going to be all about turnout on Tuesday. Yeah, you're right about that, Casey. And we reported just last night that nearly 63 million.

voters have already cast ballots. There's such a hyper focus on November 5th election day, but of course, with the expansion of early voting and mail-in voting across the country, a large percent of voters have already cast their ballots, Casey. You also referenced you hope we know Tuesday night. Do you really expect to know Tuesday night who the winner of this election is? No. I mean, it's a runaway win that we will know, but there's no indication that there's going to be a runaway win here. there's not, but the polls have been so often these Trump elections, it is still possible. I mean, Trump, for instance, in 2020, as he referenced on a recent podcast, I think he was down by

17 points in Wisconsin was the consensus. And he ended up only losing Wisconsin by like one point. Right. So, you know, the polls are important. They give us an idea of trends, but they can be off by 17 points in a swing state, you know. And so we've had some humility when we approach it. To your point about the early voting, I mean, we're seeing, this is the new era of voting, unless the laws are changed. I mean, the amount of early voting has been huge and actually some good signs for Republicans because they've seen a unusually high number of early voting ballots from registered Republicans, which votes really well, actually, for Trump. Historically, Democrats have won the early vote, but Republicans do well on election day. But it may be this election changes that because Republicans are. voting more, it seems, in early voting. Now, the question is, are they just transferring their

votes from Election Day to early voting? And so it's just a net zero, or are there more people, more Republicans voting overall? And we're seeing that in early voting and we'll see it on Election Day. That's the big question. Speaking of Election Day, Casey, me and the entire Center Square staff will be working the elections across the country. You from Washington, D.C., and we have staff in all four continental U.S. time zones. So listeners, can follow our coverage at thecenter square.com. Thank you for joining us today. Get out there and vote.