An Army of Normal Folks - Tariffs, Uncertainty, and the Army

Episode Date: April 25, 2025

For Shop Talk, Coach Bill and Alex dive into the tariff war. And what we can learn from it as Army members. Support the show: https://www.normalfolks.us/premiumSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey everybody, it's Bill Courtney. Welcome to Shop Talk. Welcome in, Alex. I feel like it should be a lot stronger, especially given the number, the Shop Talk number we're hitting here. It's a milestone. Number 50. Shop Talk number 50. I cannot believe we have done, will have done at the end of this 50 Shop Talks. I hope you people out there appreciate this hard work we put in. And you better send us some ideas because the struggle is real to come up with new ideas. Yeah, I mean, guys, please a lot of mail is a lot of folks actually have.

So I'm just joking around more. But Bill at normal folks dot us give us ideas for shop talk. I have a surprise for Alex. He doesn't even know we're going gonna do this one today. But today, we're going to talk about tariffs. Aren't you excited? I'm also sore. Yeah, we're gonna talk about tariffs. And there's a reason we're gonna talk about them. And they're topical. So it's shop talk. And it's what everybody's talking about. But I want to explain them. I'll explain how they're affecting business.

But I want to put a little slant on it. We actually did one about 20 episodes ago on tariffs, too. But those were old terms. Those were the old tariffs. Yeah. Yeah. So shop talk number 50 coming up a little. What do you call it when it's like right now, current events? Is that? Sure.

You can call them that, yeah. What else do you call them like in political science class? I think it's called current events. Current events. Yeah. Well, do current events shop talk today on tariffs right after these brief messages from our generous sponsors. I'm Soledad O'Brien, and on my podcast, Murder on the Towpath, I'm taking you back to the 1960s.

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most crowded of markets. Listen to Good Company on the iHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey everybody, tariffs. So the idea and I want to stay out of the political and just get into the kind of high altitude geopolitical argument, which is that if you put tariffs on products coming into your country from other countries, it disincentivizes the purchase of products from other countries and therefore incentivizes the manufacture of products in your own country, thereby supporting growth in your own country, job creation in your own country, then boost your domestic

economy, your domestic gross domestic product, and the health of your country. So I attended a conference that I was actually the keynote speaker at on the opening day and then later was the moderator of a panel. On the panel was the author of a book on globalization. The title of it is The End of the World is Just Beginning. His premise was on globalization and now deglobalization. And I'm going to... this 600-page book written by an incredibly brilliant economist that I'm going to butcher, I'm going to give you the overview, is that after World War II, there was only one navy left in the world intact, and it was the US Navy.

And because Europe was in shambles, much of Asia was in shambles, obviously Japan, at the end of World War II, the United States, being protected by the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, was completely intact. Its banking system was intact, its manufacturing base was intact, more importantly its navy was intact, and it had a choice to make. It had the choice to follow in the footsteps of the Napoleon French Empire, the Roman Empire, the United Kingdom Empire. Because see, in 2000 years of history, at the end of great conflicts, the winner started empires.

And if you think about the Egyptian Empire, the Roman Empire, the UK Empire, the French Empire, actually the Swedes had an empire at one time. If you think about it, they all failed. And the reason they fail is because although you win the war and the people that you have an empire over are decimated, over time they get stronger and they no longer want to be governed and ruled by some far away land and the empire becomes weak and the empire becomes weak and what's on its own selfishness greed

on its own selfish excess but here's what happens is the cost to the empire nation to continue to keep that empire strength over vast swaths of the world becomes too great. And the empires fall. Think of the Roman Empire and now you got Italy. Think of what UK. UK once had once had an empire over most of Africa and India and Hong Kong and it's all gone. So the US at the end of World War II said well we can be an empire and dominate the world but history has shown us eventually that fails or What we can do is

We can return the sovereignty of all of these different nations to their nations but put some guidelines on them like the dollar trade and Alliances and so after World War two the United States very wisely built alliances that kept the the big scary person in the corner, which was Russia at the time and That's what built this American Eurasian alliance all buttressed by the power and might of the United States Navy,

because for the first time in history, the U.S. Navy was so strong that it could allow and police and sheriff free trade across the Atlantic and the Pacific. Thus started globalization. Pacific, thus started globalization. And the trade-off for the amount of money and effort that the United States would put in policing the oceans to allow for globalization and trade is that America would be the world leader. the dollar, trade, NATO, and all of the allies we built as a result of being the world's sheriff is that you bind together with us against the Red Scare, communism, i.e. the Soviet Union. And it worked because over the course of time in the 80s the Soviet Union fell, Russia another empire,

Russia retreated to itself, and the truth is most of us since World War II until today have lived in relative peace and prosperity and have grown to believe that this worldwide trade and this globalization that exists is normal, when in fact it is quite abnormal. Human history has never had a seven or eight decade long stretch where it was relative peace, prosperity, and open trade where third world nations were able to pull themselves up and become wealthy, all while this benevolent sheriff, the US allowed it to happen. So that's kind of the history, according to this book of globalization that I actually subscribe to and believe is accurate. So tariffs, where do tariffs come into this world? Well, the premise is that globalization is dying and the reason globalization is dying is twofold. One is

population is dying. There are only three countries in the world that over the next 20 years should experience even or increasing population. Every single other country is experiencing depopulation. Do you know what those three countries are? US. Only because of immigration. Right.

Not on its own. Which is where we're getting to. Sorry. France is actually growing. And then another that I can't remember but it's a smaller country that. I'm surprised France is actually one. I know, but it is.

I guess the French like to make babies. I don't know, but their population over the next 20 years is expected grow China's on the other hand is supposed to be cut by 35 percent. They will lose 35 to 40 percent of their population Which and for context you have to have 2.1 kids per couple of the grow right that's it And they did the one child initiative for 30 something years and they're paying for it right now. So as population centers decline, demands for goods and services and the people to produce those goods and services decline. And that's one. And number two is the cost borne by the United States to be the world's maritime sheriff has become too great. And so when you look at the debt that our country has piled up

The debt that our country has piled up, only over the last three decades, approaching $30 trillion. If you look at our budget, just the debt service and then the untouchable entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, those things, equal our total revenue. There is no more money to build into defense. There's no more money to do anything else because as interest rates have gone up, the debt service on this growing debt has gone up. And so what's happened is we're in a fiscal, our country's having a fiscal problem and it can really no longer afford to police and sheriff the world. So there's this argument that other countries are going to have to step up and spend their own money to defend themselves and the US has to raise revenue to offset

the cost of what it has spent so many years defending the world. And there's only two ways to raise revenue. One is external taxes and the other is internal taxes. Well when your economy is in trouble you don't want to raise income taxes and stagnate internal growth. So the other is then tariffs because tariffs bring money into the treasury and while there is an argument because tariffs bring money into the treasury. And while there is an argument that the marketplace ultimately pays for tariffs because the prices of goods come up, it is a fact that at least some of the costs of tariffs are borne by

foreign countries. Why am I saying all this? What has happened in the last three months has elicited all kinds of vitriol, all kinds of fear, stoked all kinds of misinformation. In my own business, I do business in 42 countries, every single one of them I'm dealing with reciprocal tariffs now. It is not easy for my company. It is not easy for me. My company will not make the same money.

It was going to make only three months ago. Anybody who put together a prospectus for the year 2025 back in November, you can ball that up and throw it in the garbage because this, this trade war tariff thing that's happened has absolutely made any projections you put together at the end of last year completely, you know, they're just, they're worthless because the whole world and the whole economy of the world has changed.

So there's fear, there's doubt, there's what are we gonna do, there's arguments, there's all of this going on. It has stoked an enormous amount of media attention and finger pointing and blame and calls of people being crazy and calls of this is the only way to save this and all of that

and again I want to remind you I am affected very personally by this why am I saying all this is is this I think we need to take a deep breath. I think we need to understand that the pendulum swings, it always swings, and I think we need to remember the power of an army of normal folks. We're gonna be alright. The world is not going to implode, despite what the fear mongers and the press and national media and social media tick tock and all the rest of it will have you believe. There is a shift based on population growth and decline, based on the cost of globalization, there's absolutely a shift happening. And people hate change, whether it's necessary or unnecessary,

whether you believe it's necessary or unnecessary. People hate change, and change scares people and it further pulls us into our cocoons of belief sets and tends to stoke all kinds of differences. And that should not be the case. We have to accept the change is going to happen and a hundred years from now the people that come behind us will deal with another set of change that we can't even fathom right now. That'll probably have to do with AI or something like that. But the power of an army of normal folks, that remains consistent. That never changes.

We need to remember that there's work to do in our communities, there's work to do in our communities. There's work to do in our families. There's opportunity every day to make positive effect. And we can't let the circumstance of current events in a geopolitical world make us withdraw into our own fear. If anything, we have to be more bold. We have to remember all the work that needs to be done in the world has not changed and the power of an army of normal folks is exactly what stands strong in the face of fear and change.

So, tariffs, geopolitics, all kinds of empire verse withdrawing nations and all of the stuff you're reading and all the stuff you're being bombarded with. Fear not. Be part of the army of normal folks. See areas in Eden, fill it. And don't let yourself be overcome with a bunch of mess

that changes the narrative of your day, which is when you see areas in need, you fill them, you'll be fulfilled by that, and it seems to more and more cancel the noise of all this other stuff out there. Don't withdraw. What do you think? I mean, the tariffs are a tough topic,

so I'm hesitant to weigh in on anything because it's so fraught of pissing off one side or the other. I think I laid it out pretty easily. I guess I'm open to saying, is there's all these exemptions right now for certain industries as part of it. And that's where I think it's unfair because the politically... I think there's been 1,000, you've fallen this much more closely than me, but 1,000

products that have been exempted from the tariffs. So what happens is people go and lobby President Trump, the administration, all these people, they get excluded. But how about all the little guys out there? I'm looking at one of them. I know I have no exclusions and you are an American manufacturer I mean the kind of people that you know, supposedly we want to you know benefited, you know help from all this and so it's Yeah Let me just finish the thought okay, then you go into it

That's why ideally the government would have less power over our lives and an army of normal folks would have more power in our society. That's the way it really should be. So it's not the few and the well-connected and the apples of the world or these certain industries are getting the exemptions and the little guys are screwed. So that's kind of a big picture of a thematic thing even outside of the tariffs and ideal world that hopefully we all work towards is an army of normal folks reigns more supreme and I think what an army can do in the meantime even outside of politics is hey let's show the power of the army and let's keep acting and showing what kind of change we can make happen in the world and hopefully more and more people realize like

the army is the solution not DC. That's it And what I was going to say when you were saying it that just popped in my head is, is I could sit around and get pretty angry right now if I think about the exemptions for Apple and cat and chips when we're struggling because of all this stuff. But if I sit around and get angry about that and withdraw and get frustrated, then I might miss the 15 opportunities that are gonna come across today that I might be able to serve or help somebody else in need.

And that's gonna fill me up a lot more than worrying about all this stuff. So you're right, the exemptions of it are frustrating as crap. And you can easily hand wring and get angry and, and go down this, this, this slippery slope into this pitfall of being consumed by all this mess that's going on right now. But I have to remind myself every day that the world's not gonna end. And Alan Barnhart makes less money than you

and he's still a really happy man. He's still a really happy man. It's a good example. It's a perfect example. So there you are. Don't let the tariffs, geopolitics, and all the people on the news and social media freak you out

Everything's gonna be okay and the the power of the army and normal folks is steadfast and is not gonna change That's shop talk number 50 if you have any ideas for other shop talks Please email me at bill at normal folks dot us and I will always respond and if I think we have something to add, we'll certainly take it up. There's actually one other thing I wanna add. So this is gonna come out before our live interview, our next one on May 8th. Okay.

With the 9-11 firefighter Tim Brown. Oh yeah, cool story, amazing story. So he helped save 15 lives that day, but he doesn't view himself as a hero. He lost 100 friends that day. So it's May 8th 8th 630 p.m. at Grind City Brewing. Go to 100friends.eventbrite.com to learn more on RSVP. Yeah and y'all come and meet a true American hero. Yeah if you like this show rate it, review it, subscribe to the podcast. Yeah.

Share with friends on social friends on social, go to normal folks dot us, right. Sign up to join the army, become a premium member. That's it. All of these things that will help us grow an army of normal folks and shop talk at shop talk. Number 50. They're the, they're the same thing. You I've been meaning to correct you on this.

What's that? Some reason you like treat them like they're two separate shows like they're gonna grow an army of normal folks and grow Shop talk shop talk is a part of an army of normal folks. It's all the same thing, but you know, I mean Shop talks a different title Whatever after you sir See you next week See you next week. It turns out Mary was connected to a very powerful man. I pledge you that we shall neither commit nor promote aggression. John F. Kennedy.

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