Andy & Ari On3 - Are the Missouri Tigers REAL CFP contenders in the SEC? Eli Drinkwitz joins the show | CFB Week 5's Best Bets: Bama-UGA, LSU-Ole Miss | Tennessee at Mississippi State, Indiana at Iowa

Episode Date: September 25, 2025

Happy Thursday! It's a Dear Andy & Ari episode as we gear up for a HUGE week of college football ahead. We answer your questions on the show, but first we have Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz on the show. While Missouri has jumped out to a hot 4-0 start with wins over Kansas and South Carolina, the Tigers look to be a real threat in the SEC this season. Watch here as Coach Drinkwitz joins the show to discuss Beau Pribula's transfer, Ahmad Hardy's emergence, and his rules for life. (0:00-0:49) On Today's Episode(0:50-3:10) BetMGM(3:11-3:45) Intro: Legitimately Good(3:46-9:37) Missouri Tigers, legitimately good?(9:38-22:42) Missouri Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz joins(22:43-27:08) Coach Drinkwitz's rules for life(27:09-31:43) PaniniAmerica.net(31:44-34:55) Dear Andy & Ari: Road Wins(34:56-39:32) #11 Indiana at Iowa (+7.5)(39:33-46:59) #15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (+8.5)  (47:00-54:53) Curt Cignetti & Job Openings(54:54-1:00:12) Oklahoma's Outlook with Mateer's Injury(1:00:13-1:03:59) Tyler Shoemaker joins: San Jose State at Stanford (-2.5)(1:04:00-1:10:44) #17 Alabama at #5 Georgia (-3)(1:10:45-1:13:43) #4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss (-1.5)(1:13:43-1:16:57) Conclusion: #1 Ohio State at Washington (+8) After Coach Drinkwitz, it's time for your questions. First, we look at some road favorites in conference play this weekend in Indiana at Iowa and Tennessee at Mississippi State. Will both of these road favorites take care of business? Or will a home team win as an underdog? Next, a listener asks about Curt Cignetti in the coaching carousel. Would the head coach entertain other jobs? Should schools give him a call? Andy explains why the Hoosier head coach might be happy in Bloomington. To wrap up the mailbag, a Sooner fan asks about Oklahoma's outlook with the news of John Mateer's injury. Can OU make the CFP even if they finish 9-3? Andy & Ari seem to think so. To close out today's show, Tyler Shoemaker from VSiN joins to give the best bets ahead of week 5 in college football. A jam-packed slate and Tyler gives us his best bets here. Our show is presented by BetMGM! If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works: 1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB.2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game.3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sureyou use bonus code CFB when you sign up! Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary. See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. US promotional offers not available in New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US). Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only. Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. We’re also brought to you by Panini! Panini delivers the most collectible sports cards and memorabilia on the planet. Check out the new exclusive Arch Manning collection or the Panini Prizm Draft Picks College Football series. Visit PaniniAmerica.net to start your collection today. Join On3 today and get one full year of access to The Athletic included! https://www.on3.com/subscribe/C Watch our show on YouTube! https://youtu.be/PPbUQjIn3TA Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's episode of Andy and Ari on 3 presented by Bed-MGM, we have a very special guest, Missouri coach. Eli Drinkwitz joins us to explain why they're drop-kicking at Missouri now and also exactly what they have in Tailback Ahmad Hardy. Plus, we dive into some very interesting road games because there's not been a lot of really big road wins this season, and there's some interesting road games for road favorites. So Indiana at Iowa, Indiana coming off that massive win against Illinois.

Also, Tennessee hits the road to face Mississippi State, suddenly resurgent Mississippi State. We'll talk about that. Plus, Tyler Shoemaker joins us with his best bets. He is from Beeson all today on Andy Nari on 3. We are presented by BetMGM, and if you have not signed up for BetMGM yet, now is the best. time. Sign up now. Use the bonus code CFB as in college football and you'll get up to $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how it works. Download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code CFB. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You receive up to

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Call 1-800-3-27-5-0-5-0-0 in Massachusetts. Call 1-800-off in Iowa or 1-800-9-8-1-0-2-3 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only, subject to L. eligibility requirements, rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in seven days in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BDMGM yet, use the bonus code CFB and get your $1,500 first bet offer today. Welcome to Andy and Ari on 3 presented by BetMGM, and it is a big day on the show. We got a very special guest. We've got your questions answered.

Our friend Tyler Shoemaker from Vison joins to give us his best bets to send you off into a huge college football weekend. But Ari, let's talk first about a topic we discussed on Tuesday. We were talking about a group of teams that have been very good to start the season. And you asked the question, are these teams actually good? Are they going to continue to play like this as the schedule gets harder? One of those teams we didn't really discuss in depth because, because we were going to have their coach on was Missouri. And we're about to talk to Eli Drinkwitz, the head coach in Missouri.

But let's have that discussion with regard to Missouri right now because this team has looked great. You know, the win against Kansas is aging really well. And the winning in South Carolina, we weren't sure they were going to have to play against the Laura Sellers. They did and gritted that one out. Yeah. The early returns on Missouri are through the roof. and they don't have a very exciting game this coming weekend against UMass, but Alabama is right around the corner.

So, you know, the SEC, I think in general, is a hodgepodge of very capable teams. And even the ones that lose games are still very capable. And that makes it very difficult to handicap, but everything that I've seen from their offense, especially, it makes me feel like they can be in any game with anybody in the conference right now. one of seven teams i think i would name that could you know conceivably beat you know the browns beat the packers on sunday you were in my house and yes told my wife the browns beat the packers

and she went the browns won like like she was like and she didn't even and she didn't have the context that the packers were good she was just so shocked the browns won and it's like that is so that i feel like that's the SEC this year though like the NFL and the SEC can hold hands and, like, the, the unpredictable results that I think we're going to get in Missouri falls square into that category, Andy. I think Missouri is not the Browns. If we're, if we're continuing with that analogy, Missouri's like the Bills. The Bills?

The Bills are the best team in the NFL, aren't they? Are they? I mean, they're one of the best. They're one of the best. Okay. Then they are the Ravens. You did it again. The Ravens are the Redons.

No, the Ravens just lost the game. No, okay. I get what you're saying. Who are they in the NFL? The Chargers probably, maybe. Like the Chargers. Yes, Justin Herbert, Beau Perbula, Eli Drinkwitz, Jim Harba. Okay, I'm on, I'm with you there.

Laurie Hampton, Amad Hardy, I don't know. You get, they're a very good football team, but I'm sure the Chargers fans cannot wait to watch them play against the team like the Bills or, you know, one of the top teams in the country to see how they go. Maybe it's a bad analogy. I don't know. But, like, there's more parity in the SEC probably than any of their conference in the country in terms of top level teams that could conceivably win a national title. I think the Big 12 will forever hold the parody crown until further notice with their three and a half point minted coin.

But, like, it's not insane right now to say that Missouri could make a deep run in the playoff, right? Like, that's not an insane notion. Well, okay, before we get there, and I'm sure Eli Drinkwitz would stop us. before we talk like this. So they play UMass, they get a week off. This is the next part of the schedule. This obviously will determine whether they're a playoff contender or not. They get Alabama at home, they go to Auburn,

they go to Vanderbilt, and they get Texas A&M at home. That is a crazy four-game stretch. Yeah. So they beat two of those teams and then finished the year off with wins over Mississippi. State, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Oklahoma and Arkansas, they're in the playoff. Correct. Correct.

Which is, that's not going to be easy either, but given what we see from Missouri so far this year, it all seems possible. Yeah, right. I still have a hard time with this, Andy. I know that we're a few years removed from the four-team era, but I am still trying to program my brain to remind myself that you do not have to be perfect. You have to be good enough. And that's a completely different view.

than it used to be. And it's like I was even when I wrote about A&M earlier in the week, and it's like, you know, Texas A&M could lose Aggie-like games this year and still make it. Like the Johnny Mansell team would have made it. Like the Mizzou team does not have to be 12 and 0 or 11 and 1 to make it. And once you make it, Andy, if you get hot, the hope is, I mean, we've seen it, and we will see it that teams that are athletically capable at the right time

can get a few wins and make it a lot deeper. than they would have otherwise had an opportunity to do in the past. I think Missouri falls into that category. And the one thing that I think that stands out to me the most is that both Pribula has been a much more proficient passer, which I think Eli alluded to when we talked to him than people gave him credit for. When he was in the portal, people were just like, this guy's a run threat and was the off, keep the defense off balance guy for Penn State,

but can he throw? And I think he's done a tremendous job throwing the ball. So I don't know if I'm all in on Bo Probula's going to the New York for the Heisman ceremony like some people in Columbia are. But like I do think that he's played much better than I thought. Well, and Eli wants it to be Ahmad Hardy and and not one of the 10 quarterbacks that's not Bo Pervula that we've got listed as Heisman favorites. So it's going to be a very fascinating next month for Missouri football because they could be very much in the thick of things at the end of the month. and I can't wait to find out because they're fun to watch. They're a really fun team,

especially when they're drop kicking every kickoff, which is they did that five times against South Carolina. Fiddling around with the magic bean, you've got to be nervous, man. It makes me scared. Eli Drinkwitz is not nervous, and he'll explain why right now. We are honored to be joined by Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz,

who has got the special teams nerds, in a tizzy this week. Y'all are drop kicking kickoffs, Coach. I know there's a, you have a very good reason. You have a kicker who tore as ACL. You've had to figure out what to do. Nick Harbor was kind of one tackle away from breaking something on you. You got a little worried.

But how did it come to be that the original way to move the football back in 1872 is the way you're doing it now for kickoffs? so we were we were preparing for south carolina they had a look where in the bowl game their punter last year dropped kicked it versus illinois and so we were trying to replicate that in practice and when we saw it our hunter Connor westman said hey I can drop kick and we're like really and so before practice he started drop kick and I said well hey if we're on the right hash and I said drop kick it left can you do that and he did it and so if we're on the right hash and Harbor goes to the left, could you do it to the right?

And he did it. And then he kept doing it. So then I brought Coach Link over and said, hey, what about this? And he was like, I guess. So on Thursday, we walked through it on Friday, he's the first time we practiced at full speed. And after the first kickoff, I said, let's go drop kick 55. Coach, we can't give Harbor another chance.

I mean, that's got to be anxiety driving, right? I don't know. If I were a coach is watching that, it's scary. Which part? Watching him drop kick, you're watching the doing it part. It's an unpredictable being. I mean, like, I don't know. Well, that's honestly.

I was a little bit surprised because we had a tough time fielding it when he was practicing that kick. So I was a little bit surprised at how easily South Carolina was able to field it. But yeah, it's kind of a cool thing. In fact, when I was watching football on Sunday, I started wondering if some NFL teams might try to do that. If they have anybody that can drop kick just because of the new kickoff rule, I think it could be an effect. effective way to create positive field position. There is a kicker in the NFL. I'm blanking on the team

right now, but he's just announced that he's figured out how to kick a knuckle ball. Yeah. Because they don't have to kick it very far now because they have to land at the landing zone. So he's figured out a knuckle ball and it is messing with dudes' minds when they're trying to catch it. So you may want to have your guys

take a look at that as well, although maybe the drop kick is tough enough. You know, here's the deal. You know, these kickers, they got like three hours. during practice to do it at all of a sudden they figured out I had a drop kick knuckle balls we got we can helicopter kick we can do all kinds of stuff I have two this could be a 20-minute discussion about kicking in special teams if you want I've got a not so serious question and a serious question as it pertains to kicking one how

had your team been able to recover from the loss of the national treasure that was harrison mevis yeah well I mean yeah the thicker kicker you know we replaced him last year with Blake Craig, and Blake was on track to have a big year. Obviously kicked a 50-something-yard field goal in the UCA game, and then just a really, really unfortunate knee injury. And so, you know, that's why you've got to build quality depth. I think the 105 roster limit is a little bit more challenging and scary to me now because you don't really think about kickers and specialists getting injured,

but that is a real possibility. And so we were fortunate to have some, you know, two positive guys. guys as backups and they've really done a commendable job between Robbie Meyer, true freshman and Oliver Robbins handling the kickoff duty. I've been very pleased with those guys and so far so good. And then the serious question, and I've always wondered this about, you know, college football in general, is that most places don't have a dedicated kicking coach. And when you think about, or a field goal kicking coach or whatever, and when you think about how much money is invested in college football programs. Everything from from coaching salaries to now

NIL to food, food, everything. And then you think that making or missing a kick can be the difference between winning a national title or winning your conference. Why does nobody have a dedicated kicking coach on their on their staff? And do you think that that's an oversight or am I overthinking it? No, it's probably a pretty good thought. I just don't think everybody could hire Jamie Cole, you know, or C. Saylor, you know, those guys have kind of mastered the market of like, we'll just be everybody's coach.

And then we don't have to just focus in on one. I mean, that would be like, you know, if Nick Saban was just the head coach for all 16 SEC teams, he'd make a whole lot more money. Yeah. So those guys have kind of figured out a system and, and, and they're just like self-reliant during practice? They're doing their thing and they're taking

what they were told. I think probably that's a little bit of a misthought process. We coach links with them the entire time and we have a structured plan in place

that each specialist goes through and, you know, they have a certain amount of kicks. They have a script. They have to go. And then they have,

you know, depending on if they're the snapper or the holder or they have the punter, they have this many drops. They have line drops that to do. So there is a scripted workout throughout practice.

um it's just there's a lot of water breaks in between and you know dorping around and like nobody that's like an expert on how to strike it properly or where to strike it or speed or angles or all the things that they go through in those kicking clinics i lose sleep over this i lose sleep over this i don't know i i don't know and yet and yet a lot of guys make kicks so i don't know exactly well it's it's it's funny as someone who's done stories on like the one guy who who trains all the long snappers and then ranks them in recruiting and gets some scholarship. So it is quite a cottage industry. But I got to ask you about your running back, Amad Hardy, Coach,

because you've really done well in the portal with running backs. I mean, Cody Schrader probably is the king of that. But Ahmad, maybe the next one. Guy grows up in the middle of nowhere, Mississippi, plays for Louisiana Monroe. You know what you saw in film when you were looking at him. But when do you realize that you got something truly special? Like, how long did that take? I thought we had something really special in fall camp the first time we went live

and our defense was really struggling to tackle him and he had a couple of runs that were pretty special. And then honestly, the first three or four carries at UCA, I was like, well, I was dead wrong. Dude's not very good. And then he busted one and they couldn't tackle him and he got going. And then the Kansas game, he just had some big time run. runs. And I think each week he's gotten a little bit better. You know, the one thing, as talented as he is and as awesome as he is on the field, he's been that way in the locker room. I mean, our guys really love being around him. They love playing with him and playing for him. And when we went to Harmon's Jamaica, he was there. He was there. He's an incredible worker. Just got great character. So he's been a lot of joy to coach. It doesn't surprise me. When he went in the portal, we called Brian Ben, the head coach at ULM, and he had so many great things to say about him, obviously wanted to keep him, but understood the situation and just couldn't say enough

positive things about the young man. When you guys got Bo Probula in the portal, it was obviously a big story from the other side because he had to leave the team early when they were embarking on a playoff and James Franklin had a lot to say about the situation. But I'm very curious because we did get a lot of tape on him, you know, because Penn State used him last year. What was the process in identifying him as the guy who could be for you and navigating that time, bringing him in and it being kind of a national story of like, hey, should kids have to leave the teams early and all that? Was that difficult in any way for you?

No, because that really wasn't a part of our process. I mean, you know, we were actively in the quarterback market. I think, you know, it's probably pretty public that we had several different quarterbacks come in. A couple of them chose different schools, you know, and then Bo decided to go in. and so it was somebody that we pursued. It wasn't like it was the other way around pre him going into the portal. So the whole narrative around whatever his decision was is uniquely his decision. I would say this, I don't blame him at all, and I don't think anybody else does.

It's the system that's created. Don't hate the player, hate the game, type of thing. But he's been incredible. You know, he's worked really hard to earn the trust and the leadership within our team. and his performance on the field has been really good. There's still a lot of things to clean up. But each game for him is a growing process because this was some of the first starts

he's ever had in his career. When you got him, how much did you know about it? Because he did get to play a little, like, you know, filled in when Drew was hurt against Wisconsin. You'd seen him actually lead the offense. But what was the thing that surprised you the most that you were happiest about when you got him and actually got to look at him in spring practice?

Because I'm like, okay, this is our guy. Well, the narrative out there was that he couldn't throw. I mean, that was the whole narrative, right? That they just subbed him in to run the ball and that he wasn't going to be a very good passer. But as soon as he got here, we saw that wasn't really accurate at all. And I think that was, that for us was probably the biggest excitement piece was that it wasn't just going to be like this limited offensive football. So, you know, him and Sam had a heck of a battle. Both of them were throwing the ball really well.

Both of them were creating with their feet, which is exactly what you're seeing on the field. And, you know, I think the other thing that's been a real awesome surprise, everybody from Penn State or his high school coaches talked about his leadership and how the rest of the team would really rally around him. And they talked about how, you know, he was going to be this great worker. I think you don't always believe it until you see it. and the things that he would do he does on his own is pretty impressive from his own work ethic and time spent working on his craft coach your your build at missou has been quite impressive in terms of even just the consistency of you know what you're going to get out of missou as you continue in year over year over year how does the build gain momentum or in this new era of roster building where

people are transient, is it harder to gain momentum year over year? We had to coach at Big 12 media days tell us that you're no longer building a program, you're building a team. How have you been able to kind of rise above that and get Mizzou to improve year over year and to a point now where, you know, it wasn't the case before you got there? Yeah. You know, we have a process in place that we believe in developing an elite edge, which starts with Coach Russell and athletic performance team on the first floor. We have a system that we, We believe in teaching and preaching and believing in and, you know, core values that we preach. And every year we start over.

It starts over in January. And whether you're building a program or developing a team, it starts over. And you put that process into place. And you try to be the best team that you can be. And each team is a standalone team. You know, obviously, we brought in 37 transfers and freshmen this year. and I think that's probably the norm is, you know, bringing in that many guys. So I don't know that we've done anything special or particular.

We just know who we are and we keep trying to be the best that we can be at that process. And, you know, it works for us, you know, I guess that's it. I guess my other thing is, like, I don't know if we're doing anything really special. I don't know if we're really that special. I think we just have a bunch of guys that believe in each other. And it's really more about the players than it is me or even coach for us. It's really more about them. Because you look at our team, you got Bo, you got a mod, you got Keegan Trost,

combine that with returners like Cagan Green, Connor Tallison, Brett Northleet, Marquise Johnson. You've got to be incredibly unselfish to share the spotlight. On the defense side of the ball, you got Zion Young and Dane Wilson. But then you got a fourth year, fifth year senior, Dailan Carnell. And those guys jelling together and not having a, and our Marvin Berks who's been here as a true freshman with Jalen Catalan, you got these guys meshing together and believing in each other. Really, they're not about believing at me. It's about believing in the brotherhood.

So we close these interviews for the, you know, Coach comes on the show for the first time by asking about their rules for life. Mario Cristobal said yesterday that his rule for life has never let anyone out work you. One of Ari's biggest rules for life is never eat at a place that specializes in pizza. and sushi. So what do you have? What is your rule that you live by or a couple rules you live by? Yeah, I would say rule for life. If you ever go into a grocery store, you got to buy a diet drink on the way out.

I just remember growing up, you know, we had six kids, mom and dad, dad was a teacher, mom was a stay-at-home mom. And, you know, you didn't know, you go through that aisle of lust and you couldn't, I could never get anything. and now that I got a little bit of money in my pocket, I walk through that aisle. I'm buying a bad Coke, and I'm going to show that aisle I can afford to do it now. Coach, have you ever...

Sometimes they'd be a diet, Dr. Pepper. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I make sure they know. And every time I go to the gas station or go to... That's what I was going to ask. Have you ever gone and filled up your tank? Because, like, I've never filled up my tank in my entire life and not walked into the convenience store and bought something.

And maybe that's part of the reason why I'm dealing with a little bit of a weight problem. But, like, is everybody like that or am I like that only? Like, does everybody go in there and buy something every time, Andy? I think, you know, you used to, but now with the paperless payment system, you can pay at the pump, a little bit more challenging. But if I'm in that grocery store, my kids, no. Like, Dad, we want something. Well, good, because I'm getting something. Now, do they get candy or do they go soda?

I mean, look, they get whatever they want. They're spoiled, you know? So now, it depends. It depends. If Lindsay's with us, they're not getting candy because she's like, she's discipline and all that. If it's me, you know, it's, it's, it's all for one. It's a free for it. Okay. I know you got to go. I'm going to ask this real quick because you brought something up. My parents were teachers as well. Yeah. We didn't, we, you know, we didn't lack for anything, but we weren't rich. Yeah, exactly right. But my kids, it's a different

situation. Yeah. And you're in the same boat. How do you do it? How do it? How do you do it? do you deal with that where maybe it's a little bit easier for them but how do you how do you keep training them to be people who are going to go work hard in the world i make it fly southwest on vacation we have to deal with that public airport and uh you know i think honestly i think that's seriously part of it you got to just there there's certain things in life that you got to learn you know they got to take they got to roll the trash out on thursdays they got to unload the dishwasher um It's not necessarily the same type of struggles that me and my family grew up with, but it is the struggle of that daily or weekly discipline doing something you really don't want to do

and having the character to do it. You know, my daughter the other day, we were really reluctant to give them a phone. And she had a phone and she'd been taking it upstairs, which is a no-no. And so I just, we were down there and she was wanting to go to bed early. And she's like, I'm going to take my phone upstairs. No, you're not. and she gave me the and I said all that stuff.

I bought that phone. So if you don't like the rules, just give me the phone back. You don't have to have it. And, you know, it's just one of those things. You got to confront it.

No different than when a player jumps off sides. You got to confront that behavior. Yeah. You know, it's interesting. We have a three-year-old. And I am now. Like, she's actually turning four in a few weeks.

But she's now hitting me with eye rolls. and that for the first time. That won't stop. Yeah, I would say don't worry about it right now. Let it grow for a little bit. It's a little early to me. It's a little early. But yeah, it's coming.

It's coming for sure. Eli, thank you so much. I know you've got to do Fimbabom, but we appreciate it. Appreciate it, yeah. Talk to again soon. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Take care. that is eli drinkwitz and they've got you mass this weekend week off next week and then the gauntlet begins are we have our own gauntlet of great questions from our viewers and listeners but before that we need to rip a pack go to pinini america.net to start your collection but you know i got this patrick mahomes one-on-one last week when we ripped a pack uh a pack a pack we ripped on the show last year got me a trade card and it allowed me to i go on the pinini website i enter the number and it's basically we're going to send you rookie card number two whatever that is rookie card number two came in the mail and it was this jaden daniels gold standard

rookie card uh number two it is number two 99 i believe i have it yes 99 13 of 99 you may not have it. Okay. Also, student orientation, Jeremiah Smith. That's the PRISM product from this year. So we are going to open a luminance pack right now, and let's see how we do. Because again, I got that Patrick Mahomes one of one out of the luminance pack just last week. All right. We got a Khalil Shakir. He's having a good year. Devon A. Chan, maybe the best player on the Dolphins right now. Josh Allen. He's pretty good, right, are he? He's pretty good, yeah.

Michael Pennix Jr. animation. We got a numbered to, number to 50. Huh. Number to 50 Marvin Harrison, Jr. Now, that is a, that's a controversial one right now because, yeah, he's not doing so well. We got an autographed number to 200, Mark Van Egan, old school Raiders. This is an interesting pack, Ari. I love when you get so excited about the old school cards.

I do. Okay, well, here we go. This guy's in the news this week. Number to 50, dynamic Jackson Dart, your new starter for the New York Giants. Luther Burden, who's starting to kick out. asked for the for the bears a guy who Eli Drinkwitz coached in college Cam Scataboo

who's awesome for the Giants this year. Ashton Jentee who's not quite awesome yet for the Raiders but I think that's more the Raiders fault than Ashton Jentee's fault. Yeah. I got a few here Andy from ripping some 2025 product myself. Here is

a 2025 Origins Ashton Genty Red rookie card number to 225 that I pulled the other day. Feed the manship, Kelly. And I bought this box. Can he didn't send this to me? I'm in the hobby. This is a big pool here. I don't know if you can see what that is. I've got a bad camera situation. Travis Hunter Origins card, it looks like. Travis Hunter, Rookie Auto to 99 Red Orange Origins card. That one's going to be a keeper, I think, just because it was a lightning rod of a player to

cover while he was in college. And I've been investing, as you know, Andy. in Quentin Johnston because I think he's going to be a wide receiver one there for a long time and this is a PSA 10 contenders optic rookie ticket no auto on that but it's a mint condition and one of the chases of that product so I'm feeling pretty good about Quentin Johnson this year

as you're aware and this hobby is my favorite thing in the entire world so I'm thankful for Panini sponsoring the show and I want you all to get on board it's the best combination of sports and investing and all the things that you can think about when it comes to a cool hobby for and it brings you back to childhood, man.

We all collected these when we were younger. Absolutely. We were at packs and loved it. It's become a much bigger business now than I remember it being when I was a kid or maybe I just didn't understand. It got pretty big while we were kids. Our parents would be like,

well, I just put them between the spokes of my tires and on my bike. We didn't do that because we knew there was potential value and I'm like, I had a subscription to Beckett baseball card monthly when I was 11 years old. Like, I remember attention to all that. I remember looking into, I think it's funny now because of how quickly card values fluctuate, Andy, like that they used to print into a magazine, how much something was worth as if like that is not a fluid thing.

But, yeah, if you put that Travis Hunter card in your bike spokes, I will assault you. So, thank you. Don't worry about that. But visit pininiamerica.net to start your collection today. and now it is time for us to answer your questions. And you've got some good ones this week. So we will start with Eric who says, hey guys, love the show.

I'm a Michigan fan. And I was just thinking about how Michigan beat Nebraska on the road and lost Oklahoma on the road. What are the top five road wins so far this year? It gets pretty bleak, pretty fast, in my opinion. And he says, you know, Georgia over Tennessee, Texas A&M over Notre Dame, LSU or Clemson, Baylor over SMU.

I would add to this list, Auburn over Baylor, but you could also add Arizona State over Baylor to it. Yeah. Georgia beating Tennessee and A&M beating Notre Dame are the two best road wins this season. We can agree on that. Yeah. There's a top tier, and it's like there's also two schools of thought on this, too,

and I really struggle with this. And I think the committee actually struggles on this, too. It's like Clemson stinks this year, right? So far. You think that they stink so far. but if you and I were at the LSU Clemson game and the atmosphere was insane it was a big game you know feeling

like even though LSU as the season goes on isn't going to continue to get less and less credit for doing it I still view that as a quality win how do you think the committee like views views games like that where what you got like that was probably Clemson's best shot you know like and probably we're playing well i think the committee does consider intent and things like that now the thing about

lSU is it doesn't matter because of their schedule because to get to the point where they're actually being considered to be in the playoff they will have to have so many good wins yeah it it won't matter and i resent the notion that what lSU did that night was easy now like it's like just because it doesn't but syracuse made it look easier than they did yeah but you know as well as anybody and this is my my opinion that like certain games in certain environments and certain circumstances don't necessarily weigh beating them on the road at noon like i think that like beating text like doing what what lSU did to clemson in that environment with that stage and what we thought was the expectations of both teams i think would be more difficult than what you can't have it both ways you can't say you're not surprised by the lsu o miss line yeah Maybe LSU's office isn't as good as we thought, and then say they did something awesome beating Clemson by seven. Yeah. I mean, I think that that's probably a fair criticism.

I just, it's hard to win certain games, and I think that that was a hard game to win. And that doesn't mean that LSU's offense was great. I think it was a hard game to win for LSU that night because clearly it was. They won by a touchdown that they scored in the fourth quarter. But I think sometimes If we remove the LSU Clemson from the discussion, I think sometimes beating a team in a certain circumstance in September

and beating a team in a certain circumstance in November when we have all the information sometimes also is not the same thing. That's all I'm trying to say. All right, but this brings us to two games this week that I want to talk about that we haven't really talked about yet this week. First one is Indiana and Iowa. You heard Kurt Signetti say he thinks this will be a more difficult challenge. Iowa, it's a tough place to play, Kinnick Stadium. They sell it out almost every

Saturday. It's loud. And so we're going to play well. This will be a challenge. A more difficult challenge than the last one for sure. And the sooner our guys realize that, the better. But look, I mean, you know, we have some egregious mistakes in the back end, particularly at safety. We have about five of them in that game. And we, We only got exposed once because of them. And if we don't clean those up, we're going to get fractured. And you can't put that stuff on tape. And one thing I'm going to say about Iowa, and you guys all know this,

that have been in the Big Ten a while, is, I mean, they've been running basically the same defense for a long time. Now there's tweaks, and they've always played great defense. And they've got great special teams. and they've always been able to run the ball really well. And this quarterback, you know, has been a guy that finds a way to get it done. But the thing about Iowa in general,

they will not beat themselves. You will have to beat them. Okay, they're not going to beat themselves. And they play really well at home. What Indiana faced last week against Illinois, I don't know if that's needling Illinois, respect for Kirk Ferrence. I'm not sure.

Or if it's just legitimately, he thinks that Iowa is a tougher matchup for them than Illinois was. But I am done picking against Indiana. I'm done. Like, there are seven and a half point favorite on the road, which normally that's a giant red flag, especially going to Iowa. I'm done picking against Indiana. I think Indiana is going to roll these guys. Yeah.

Indiana last year just rolled everybody for the most part. so it's kind of hard to put yourself in a position where it's like well is indiana really going to be in a six point game in the fourth quarter like like it's kind of hard to like transport yourself there uh this line certainly seemed smaller than i would have thought although i wonder and this might sound crazy maybe because it is if like iowa is at the beginning stages of trying to figure out or figuring out how to move the ball at least maybe not score but move the ball a little bit more effectively on offense which then eats away possessions and You know, you have the road situation, Kinnick, and if maybe there is a avenue here to being wrong about it. But, like, my general thought process and urge, like you is to say, like, Indiana is going to win by 20, right? Like, that's what you think. So, but winning that game would be an impressive win, I think. Yeah. Now, Iowa's offense looked better against Rutgers than we've seen so far this season, and that was on the road.

And on a Friday night against, you know, Greg Shiano, defense. Defenses tend to be very good. So I think Iowa can give them a game. And certainly, I would think it'll be more competitive than the Illinois game because it's hard to be less competitive than that. Yeah, I was going to say you're by 53. So I just don't know that it's within a touchdown. That the Rutgers, Iowa over under last Friday night was 46.

The total was 46 and a half. And I believe they had 41 at halftime between the two. And in the fourth quarter, it didn't look, and in the fourth quarter, it didn't look like it was going to go over, but then it did finally. Yeah. And Andy knows that and I know that for reasons that are undisclosed. But the, the, Iowa defense isn't as stone cold, locky as it used to be. And Iowa's offense isn't 100, it might be 80% inept, right? It's not 100% inept.

And I think it has a chance to be better and better as the year goes on. I think, Indiana's defense can make you look inept. So that's the problem. I mean, Indiana is better in every regard. So, you know, sometimes, too, it's just like somebody just tweeted at me. We posted the BetMGM graphic of our picks and they're like, Florida State minus seven is a stone cold lock. You're going to look like a moron on Friday night. And it's like, I might, I might.

I picked Florida State to cover in that game and I don't, I'm not that confident. But like, sometimes these lines are trying to tell you something, which we will get into another road game. I don't know if that's going to be now. hour later with Tyler that has a very suspiciously low line too that's kind of interesting. We're going to talk about that one with Tyler. That is, that's Ohio State Washington. Yeah. Another one I want to talk about that could get really interesting and, you know, the number, it's one of those things. I wouldn't touch it because I don't know what the line even should be in this game because of the situation is Tennessee at Mississippi State. Now, Tennessee's

favored by eight and a half on the road here. Mississippi State's undefeated. It's a very interesting matchup because, okay, Jeff Leby and Josh Heipel worked together. Josh Heippel was a head coach before Jeff Levy. So you're thinking, okay, Josh Heeple taught Jeff Levy this offense. No, other way around. Jeff Levy helped Josh Heeple learn the Baylor offense. Jeff Levy was, is Art Breil's son-in-law, obviously worked on Arbrile staff from when they worked in high school together and then to Houston to Baylor. So they, they know this Tennessee offense as well as anyone, the offensive staff and the head coach at Mississippi State.

The defense at Mississippi State has seen this offense over and over. Obviously, the defense at Tennessee has seen Mississippi State's offense over and over and over again. So nobody's going to be surprised at anything they see. This is going to be a tough environment because Mississippi State fans have been waiting for years to feel good about their team, to know that their team has a chance in games like this. And look, the schedule's not been great to this point with the exception of Arizona State,

which was a great win for them. And it's aging well. It is aging very well, and the way they're winning against the teams that they should beat, remember, this is a team that got blown out by Toledo last year. They crushed NIU. So Mississippi State is considerably better

than last year. Now, given the remainder of the schedule, that may not look that great by the end because this is an incredibly difficult schedule. But I think they're going to win one or two of these. Joey Aguilar for Tennessee, first SEC road start. Now, again, the thing about Joey Aguilar, you need to remember, though, he was a two-year starter at Appalachian State. He's played a lot of games. So actually, this is probably not his first SEC road start. I got to check the App State schedule. from 23 and 24, but this is going to be a really interesting game because what we've seen from Tennessee so far is really encouraging. I mean, the win against Syracuse looks even better. So, like, what are you things going to happen here? I'm nervous to even give a pick on this. This is a hard game. It is a stay away in terms of gambling. I feel like there's no idea what's going to happen.

Yeah, this is a stayaway game for me, and it just feels like it's kind of like flying under the radar. We had a bunch of Tennessee fans earlier in the week, Andy, who were like, do you guys just forget about, to talk about Tennessee, Mississippi State? No, there are just so many good games this weekend that it was hard to fit them in. But now I'm kind of happy we didn't because I will look like an idiot. I have no idea. Yeah, it's a tough game. So Aguilar at Appalachian State started at North Carolina in 23 and started at Clemson in 24,

was a crazy game, excuse me, not a crazy game, awful game for him, not like playing at Clemson this year. But he's been in some, you know, decent environments. But nothing like the cowbells, baby. Clang, clang, clang, clang, clang, no, I think this is going to be a lot of fun. The question for Tennessee is, is the offense going to continue looking as easy as Aguilar has made it looked? because I think if it does we are talking about a playoff team here.

Yeah, for sure. And it's a big game for Tennessee in the sense of like, hey, you know, you're feeling kind of down in the dumps. You had a week to kind of, you know, revel in the misery of not closing out the Georgia game, but you get back up and respond, you know. And I like these, these games too because it's just like Mississippi States looked very good. And I think their coach obviously offensively knows what he's doing. We're going to find out if Mississippi State's heading in the right direction

because there was a notion before, you know, coming into the seat, I thought Mississippi State was going to lose its opener against upper miss, and they ended up winning that one pretty comfortably. So, yeah, this is going to be a great game, and I can't wait to see what it looks like. Yeah, and the familiarity factor, like Tim Banks sees a version of this offense every day, but Blake Chapin has been awesome this year. He's been really efficient.

He's averaging 8.8 yards in attempt. Brennan Thompson and Anthony Evans, the third, have given him really good, reliable targets to throw to. this is going to be so much fun and that's the thing about this weekend are like on another weekend we're looking at this is one of the better games of the weekend the more you know the ones we're just so excited about and i think the way this all shakes out people may miss this one but it's one of those i think if it's tight in the third quarter everybody's turning it on yeah yeah and i don't even know what tv you're going to use because at this time window uh 415

is that it's a good time window but like there's so many good games well it splits up so when the when the 3 30 games go to half time so when you're when you're old miss lSU when you're Washington Ohio State Washington when those games are at half time this game is going to be in starting the second quarter so you're going to get action in this game while the other games that you're watching and then while all the crazy 230 games are ending you're still going to have about a half hour left for this one so people they might this this is the one we'll all all be watching when the afternoon games end going into the night games haven't started yet. So when you're waiting for Alabama, Georgia to start, when you're waiting for Oregon, Penn State to start, this is what you're going to be watching. Yeah, and with it being on the SEC network, as you conveniently see there on the graphic, that might be if it's a close game, like that's going to be the thing that everyone's talking about. So it might feel like it's like flying under the radar in a jam-packed weekend. you might have a national stage there in the fourth quarter of this game. And this is going to be a great visual too

because Mississippi State's going Stormtrooper in this game at home, all whites. Yeah. And so Tennessee's coming all orange. It's electric. This is going to look awesome. It is. Good uniform game.

And I hope River is ready for what might be a long afternoon of just angst. I'm not saying they're going to. Yeah, I think producer river's going to be sweating this thing. I do. This feels like it could be close down to the, you know, into the third quarter, into the fourth quarter. We're trying to see Mike just win by 40. Like, you know, that's possible. Like, I don't know, like, that could happen.

Let's not pretend. Like, that's the thing, too. It's like, we, we, we, I understand that these lines are sharper than, you know, most people think. But sometimes they're wrong and like certainly was wrong, you know, multiple times last weekend. Like, it's possible that. Mississippi State's improving, but isn't that great yet. And Tennessee is the playoff team, and they just win easily. You know, I'm on the, I'm on the radar for that, too.

Well, and that's what makes this all so hard to predict. All right, we got two more questions. The first one comes from Matt. Why doesn't Kurt Signet to get more attention for upcoming jobs? He wins everywhere, has SEC experience, and his teams are crushing it. Why wouldn't Florida be interested? Why does his name not come up? Is Indiana a destination job?

He's been really good. You can Google him. And Matt is a long time, long time. He goes way back to even before my punt pass and poor column at SI. So this is long, long ago. Matt, thank you so much for the question. And it's a really good one. So here's the one.

Well, I mean, he got to know you too. So I'm kidding. This is a really good question. This is really good question because if you have a job opening, cough, cough, Florida, cough, cough. You do need to call Kurt Signetti and inquire. You need to see. if he's interested.

Everybody who has a job opening that is on the same plane as Indiana or a higher financial plane, you should call Kurt Signetti and ask. Now, here's what I'll say, Ari. If you're at a Big Ten school making the playoff, the school is giving you the resources you need to get a good roster, and the school is paying you like a playoff coach in the Big Ten, you probably don't need to leave. You're probably already where you need to be.

yeah um this is a perfect question to shine the light on a larger topic which is premier jobs in the way that we used to view them five 10 years ago and premier jobs now are different um and i think that there is a i'm going to ask a rational and maybe borderline offensive question is florida at the moment a better job than indiana like definitive if indiana is going to pay you the way like so if indiana will pay curtsignity the way penn state pays james franklin and ryan day gets paid at ohio state so your your perennial playoff type you know perennial 12 team playoff type coaches and indiana will give you the resources to go stock your roster the way you want to it's a better job than almost anywhere curse signetti salary the big 10's still

easier than the cc in in terms of depth now that's going to change. The Big Ten is going to get deeper, too. But it's still easier right now. Kurtzignetti's salary as the head football coach at Indiana is an eight-year contract with an average annual compensation around roughly $8 million, which puts it in. That's going up. That's going to go over $10 this year. Plus he also gets a $1 million annual retention bonus. Yeah. So it's scheduled to go to nine and a half. It's going to go. I bet he's making 10 and a half or 11 next year. And at James Madison was making sense. 677,000. So that's a heck of a come-up. Andy, the other aspect of this, which I always think

we take for granted, or I take for granted, and fans certainly take for granted, is the quality of life aspect of it, too, because if you're at Indiana and you're making that money and you go six and six one year, like that is received in Bloomington much differently than that's received in Gainesville. Although you don't fire you at Florida for that either. Yeah. At least not yet. So Billy Napier couldn't have had a relaxing last few years of life. No, it's been horrible since his first year for him. Like he's been under constant pressure since his first year. So I'm with you on that.

But if you're Florida, you absolutely call and ask. Yeah. I just think the circumstances of this one, people say, oh, it's Indiana. No, no, no, no. If he makes a playoff with Indiana again this year and Indiana, and he feels like he's in a place where he can make the playoff every year already in a conference where we generally regard the Big Ten and the SEC is the two conferences that will produce the national champion.

I don't think you need to do anything as long as they're going to pay you correctly. Do you ever wonder if Kurt Signetti, who's the most confident and outwardly confident in coach, maybe in college football, ever has moments where he looks in the mirror and thanks to himself, maybe perhaps in the shower, I can make the playoff here? Can I want a national title here? And I don't know if the answer to that question

is no but like it's an it's an absolutely i think in curt signetti's mind it's yes okay but if there's any doubt in his mind then he would have to consider one of the other jobs that that's the only thing that if you're florida you can sell like hey our ceiling is national title now the baseline expectation is much higher than the baseline expectation is at indiana but if you want to win the national title but then i feel foolish like betting against him like i was going to say yeah watching that Illinois game. I don't think he feels that way. I don't think he's thinking like, oh, I can't win the national title here. I think he's

pretty sure he can. You acknowledge, too. It's only year two. If they have four years of this, then maybe year five, six, and seven it's interesting because I had this conversation with somebody, and I listened to our friend Big Cat on PMT, you know, Big Cat's a

Wisconsin grad, and his frustration with the Wisconsin administration, because his thing is in general, they need to act like they care about winning at football, and they don't. Indiana is now acting like it cares about winning at football. Now, whether that's because Kurt Signetti dragged them to that, or they were already going to do that when they hired him,

it doesn't even matter at this point. They are acting like they care. And it feels like they're going to put the resources behind it that are required. If you're at a school that does that, that's a huge advantage. You know what is so amusing to me? is that there are programs in college football in general, Andy, that care more than others, right? Of course.

Sometimes when the programs that don't care as much as the other programs get a taste of winning at the highest level, they're like, oh, shit, we should have been caring about this. We shouldn't do this all along. Why are we so worried about basketball? We could have been winning in football. It's like, once you get a little, because I'll give Indiana credit.

When they won last year, they backed up the truck on the guy and made sure he didn't leave. Like, that was the number one fear for Indiana fans the entire time. It was like, oh, my God, we may have found something here and thank God. And they were afraid they were going to let them walk away. But once you first get a taste of winning and you realize how powerful that is all the way up to the university level, like, it's kind of crazy to me that the notion of not caring can even exist. I mean, look at Michigan.

Michigan's always cared about football more than most other places. But the second it started winning at the highest level, it starts. now it cares as much as anyone, right? Like, you've seen that, you've seen Michigan. Well, what are we always used to say? You can have a kick-ass children's hospital and a kick-ass football team. And we said that about Michigan throughout the entirety of the early Jim Harbaugh era. They started caring about college football, started caring about winning in football, like really caring.

And you know, you see when it happened. Like, you can see the line of demarcation. So. And that's why people who went at the highest level who start caring about football never stopped. Like, once you get processed. that line. Like, even if Kurt Signetti were to go to Florida, like, Indiana fans aren't just going to stop caring about it. Indiana is just going to go hire a really good coach and give that person resources than they would have otherwise been in previous situations like this to go replace it with somebody who's really good. And that's what's beautiful. And that's the tide rising.

And that's why we say, you know, in seven years, the Big Ten may be as deep as the SEC because five years ago, Indiana did not care. Agreed. Agreed. It's, it's coming. Now, if you're making the decision between a Big Ten job and an SEC job now, it's something you need to consider, but in five to seven years, it'll be the same. So one more question. This was from Brandon. Hi, guys, longtime listener to the show. And while the news about John Materer was disappointing, I'm trying to remain optimistic about how Michael Hawkins will perform in Mateer's absence. One of your thoughts on a comment, long time Oklahoma hater, Joey Galloway. I don't know if he actually hates Oklahoma. He probably doesn't think about them at all.

made recently on Kirk Herb Street's podcast. He suggested that a 9-3 Oklahoma team would not make the playoffs over an 11-1 or 10-and-2 team, laughing at even the thought of something like that happening. My question is, do you believe this to be true? For example, if Oklahoma, God forbid, loses to Texas but beats South Carolina before Mateer returns and then finishes the season 9-3,

do you think the committee would take into account the loss to Texas occurring without Mateer? All off-season, we've heard that a 9-and-3 team with a strong schedule like Oklahoma's would have a compelling case for a playoff spot. Thanks for your insights, and I love the show. Brandon, you're exactly right. This is a great point.

This is precisely how a nine and three team makes the playoff. And we said, yeah, Oklahoma's schedule. If they go nine and three against it, they'll have a compelling case. But if they go nine and three and one of the losses is without their star quarterback to another team that is a playoff contender, then that is exactly the type of thing the committee will excuse and say, you know what? If John Matur had played that game, it might have gone differently. Let's put them in the playoff and see what happens. I think if Oklahoma goes nine and three with or without John Matur,

they ran against that schedule, period. Like, I made that prediction before the season started. Yeah, I would agree with you, but especially now, if they lose a game without Mathier, there is a funny way of maybe like losing Mathier for four games could actually work into their favorite thought process of like, hey, you lose to Texas because you might. have lost that game anyway, but now you can have an excuse the committee could latch on to.

Now, I think that how lopsided losses are matter, I think being blown out still, still holds weight. The Texas game can't look like last year's Texas game. Yeah, like if you lose 42 to 15 or 14 or whatever, you might say we didn't have our quarterback, but then the committee will be like, well, if you did, you might have only lost by 17 instead of 30. So I think that keeping games close is important. But here's the, I'm going to revise the question. And this is a question that I've been I wanted to ask you for a while, and I'm happy it reminded me. Last year, when we got into the Indiana debate or some of the other debates about the three lost teams versus the two lost teams that didn't or should have gotten in, Indiana was a one loss team, correct? Right.

And they were being compared to three lost teams. So I think that we both generally agree that if you play in the SEC against a hard schedule and you have one more loss than a. team that plays a bad schedule that you can be forgiven for one loss my question to you is and i don't think this is going to happen where there's only one spot and the only difference is between a one lost team and a three loss team i think there's going to be a lot of three and two lost teams but do you think when push comes to shove anyone's schedule regardless of of how it gets to that point if they play a tough schedule and they have three losses will ever trump a team that has one loss even if their schedule is the easiest schedule you've ever seen.

Like, will you only be forgiven for two? Like, that's the, that's the, probably, probably not unless your star quarterback was out for one of them. So you think that it's possible that a nine and three team in Oklahoma with a close loss to Texas without their quarterback could get in over, if there's only one spot, this isn't going to happen, but just in theory, a team that has no quality wins, but only lost once. It's possible.

I didn't say it's sure, but it's possible. I don't think it is, but we'll cross that bridge. Yeah, because I do think they'll not have your star quarterback thing and playing very different when he does play is really important. Powerful thing, but I think that if you are being compared to a 10 and 2 ACC team or something like that, which is the more likely scenario, like in this particular case, I don't think there's going to be an 10, like an 11, or one-loss ACC team that didn't have quality wins.

Right. Right. Because the ACC's stronger at the top this year. So you're going to happen something. It is September. And things have a funny way of evening out. But I think that if you are an Oklahoma fan, and I think we said this on the show when we were talking about material yesterday, Andy, like your playoff dreams are far from cooked.

Like I get a shot. I would not be laughing at the notion that they are forgiven for any hypothetical close loss of Texas off the quarterback. Yeah, they got a shot and go read my story at On 3 about why their defense needs to get better with material gone, even though their defense has already been awesome. But yeah, there's a chance it actually could get better. Ari, now it's time to talk to our friend Tyler Shoemaker, the tissue index. He works at Veson. He gives us his best bets every couple of weeks. And he's got some really interesting plays this week. And I got to dive into the reasoning here because I think

there's going to be some people are like, yeah. And there are some people like, wait, whoa, whoa. Whoa. Whoa. What do we talk about here? So let's talk to Tyler Shoemaker from Beeson. Okay, Tyler, you send us three, three of your best bets for this week. So what do we got? Yeah, so we'll start with Stanford laying two, two and a half against San Jose State. I predict Stanford minus six and a half. And I think more importantly, when we look at the on-field data and the way the numbers are trending, all the numbers I look at

trending towards Stanford. And I did a lot of analysis throughout this week, looking back at the first three weeks. And these plays where the trend line is positive on a team. And what I mean by that is their on-field data is even better than the preseason data. Those have been absolute money. So this fits that trend. So I like Stanford here to put a number on San Jose State. Yeah, I just went back to look to see if Stanford scored an offensive touchdown this year, and it looks like they have, so that's good. They beat Boston College. Like, they're not the complete dumpster fire that I think people have, you know,

everybody thought they were going to be after the Hawaii game. The problem was, though, that I bet Stanford against Hawaii Live for a million dollars, and I can't get that taste out of my mouth. But this is my favorite thing about the Tyler Shoemaker experience. It doesn't matter how you feel or what your preconceived notions are, if the numbers are the numbers and you go with it and uh you know you watch the games and you play out uh how they go and Tyler like as we are heading into the second month of the season I know you like uh you know 30 games it's really hard to kind of whittle down which ones are

your favorites um but as you go through the numbers and you get more data in the off season or I mean in the regular season and you start to like look at different metrics do you feel like you are more confident as the year goes on yeah for sure I mean it like I said, especially doing the analysis that I did this week, I carved out a lot of time to just look back at the first three weeks and kind of take a step back, look at not only how my TSI number performed, but all the other formulas that I run and try to just figure out some patterns in that data to try to pick out the winners. So I feel, I feel really good this week. So that's, you know, that's going to go one of two ways. We're either going to crush it or get absolutely destroyed

because those trends are going to get turned on their head. But, but no, I mean, basically, on how these trends and the data has performed thus far, I feel really good going into the yeah. And I have access to Tyler's database and I look at it. And like sometimes there will be in his index like a huge point discrepancy between the spread. And I'm like, why aren't we playing this? And he'll be like, dude, listen, there's other, there's like nine different factors that are also involved than just my numbers. And I still play them anyway because I can't control myself. But what are some of those other things that you look at, Tyler? Yeah. So I mean, I have my official TSI number which is like a blend of everything basically that historically that's been the most

accurate number so that's that's what I put out there as my official number but then as I'm handicapping these games and trying to trying to decide what I'm going to personally bet I'm also looking at again the on-field data only I'm looking at points per play metrics by themselves I'm looking at yards per play metrics because I think looking at yards per play versus points per play I think that tells a really good story of sometimes teams will have really good yards per play, but their points per play is really low. And what that tells me is a team's been moving the ball. Well, they just haven't, you know, maybe been able to finish drives or that sort of thing. So I think in those cases, maybe some regression is possibly coming

because yards per play, if you're moving the ball consistently, and again, all these are opponent adjusted, if you're moving the ball consistently on good teams, chances are you're probably going to, you know, end up finding the end zone one way or another. So, Tyler, let's go diametrically opposite in terms of national importance from the Stanford San Jose State game to one of your other best bets. You got Alabama plus three at Georgia. Yeah, I am not like a big look ahead guy as far as like, okay, like right now you can look and like draft Kings or Fandle will have next week's lines up already, like the look ahead lines. Last week, I just took a peek. Alabama was plus four and a half last week. And I grabbed it.

I don't do that often, but I did with Alabama. I project Georgia minus one here, but looking at the on-field data, I've got Alabama favored by three. So again, that's trending toward the Crimson Tide. And then looking at like the points per play, that season-long metric would be Alabama minus one. And then the on-field data, Alabama minus eight and a half. I mean, all of the numbers pretty much are favoring Alabama, definitely covering the spread. and a lot of them have them winning outright. Yeah, and I've noticed almost all the power ranking,

you know, different people, different metrics, different methods, have Alabama either closer than the spread in this game or winning outright. And I'm a little leery of this because I'm not sure all of your formulas have caught up to how bad Wisconsin is. And I think they're overvaluing that win. That's my fear. that is certainly fair i'm going to look real quick to see how far i've dropped wisconsin this year i've dropped wisconsin uh just a couple of points so you know you you may be on onto something there but again like i mean some of these onfield

only because that's my that's my official number i've only dropped them a couple points but the on field only um that in theory should encapsulate that so you know we'll we'll see but i feel I feel good about about getting Alabama anywhere north of a field goal here. Just that of curiosity as we're talking about this game and we might get some insight onto others, where is Florida State moved up in your numbers? Oh, Florida.

Because they are also accounted for with Alabama's, you know, data too, I assume. Yeah, so here's the hard thing. So Florida State, I've actually upgraded 9.8 points so far this season. Oh, wow. The hard thing with them is I, you could argue I should upgrade them more based on where their on-field data has been, but the problem is we've only got two

FBS data points for them so far. So that's the tricky things. You know, you don't want to get too far out over your skis adjusting a team after just a couple of data points. So I've been a little more conservative, but even with that, you know, I've got them up almost 10 points so far. Yeah, the thing that I think is interesting, Tyler, and this is my notion, and you can tell me if this is true or not because people talk about trap lines. That's not true. I saw you tweeted there's no such thing it's a trap line. And I want you to explain that. But my understanding is that the lines for the games that are on national TV, the games that Andy and I are talking about all week, the games that everybody's excited, the games that are in the promos have the sharpest line. So I'm always, is that true? And like, I always get a little bit nervous hammering games that are on national TV that the entire country is watching because those are the sharpest. So I'm always interested when your numbers disagree with the lines. that they put out for these types of games. Is there a correlation between, you know, profile of game

and how sharp the line is and how does that work with your data? I think the closing line, yes. I think, you know, Alabama, Georgia definitely is going to probably have a sharper closing line than, you know, U.L. Monroe, Arkansas State type of thing. But, you know, the thing we have to consider, especially at this point in the season,

is kind of what we've just been talking about is, you know, everyone has their preseason priors. And the big question that faces us all when you analyze the sport is how quickly do you come off of those preseason expectations and adjust for what you're seeing on the field? And there's no necessarily right or wrong answer to that. So that's why I kind of, I look at it from a bunch of different angles and we'll run different formulas weighing the on-field data more or less to try to get a full picture of like, okay, if I really cling to my preseason numbers, the number would be this. if I really accelerate the on-field numbers, it would be this, to try to give me a clearer, you know, full context picture of what a game might look like.

Yeah, Andy and I struggle with the same stuff. Everybody struggles with it. It's like, well, I struggle with everything, Ari. Let's not limit it to that. And gambling specifically, though, it's like trying to wrap your brain around, like intellectually, Alabama beating Georgia with what we know about both teams this year's hard. It's just a hard thing to do.

And, you know, taking that leap of faith with your money is even harder. So I understand your worry, Andy, because who wouldn't worry about, like, Georgia winning against Alabama at home after Alabama got a door? And I don't think Georgia is like 2002, Georgia. I think Georgia is going to be in a lot of competitive games in the SEC this year. So I'm not saying that Georgia is going to steamroll Alabama. I just, I'm not as sure because it's not just Tyler. It's all of the power ranking based metrics, which by the way, way have historically overrated Alabama are very high on Alabama in this game.

So it's not Nick Savans, Alabama. Like it was probably more consistent then, but this is different. Well, Tyler, just as you know, I know that you're hearing some, some worry. My daughter's daycare is on the line with Bama because of you. So I just want you to know, you've got some. All right. Well, I'm glad there's no pressure. at least like the daycare workers or the kids like who who who who who's playing bama this week uh no i'm

kidding i would never do that or am i joking i don't know we'll see if it we'll see you're not joking yeah uh another another one that you gave us which when this line opened it's kind of the classic ranking versus line makers situation where you know i aren't i weren't particularly surprised that old miss opened as a favorite against lSU they're their one and a half point favorite right now. But I think probably people who just look at the rankings be like, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, that that team's, the number 13 team is favored over the number 14. How is that even possible? Yeah, one last point here on Georgia Alabama real quick.

I just wanted to sneak in that I think is relevant. Georgia's on-field data is seven points lower than what I had them in the preseason. So that kind of explains why the line, why my projection is what it is. As far as Ole Miss LSU, I think LSU is still, from a perception standpoint, is still like living off this Clemson win that, you know, we now know, you know, if you follow the sport closely, you know now that like that was not really all that impressive because Clemson kind of sucks. I've downgraded them 20 points so far this season, which is like huge.

I mean, that's an enormous drop. I mean, they've just, they've been awful. They've been terrible. So, Ole Miss, I project them as. four and a half point favorites. The on-field number makes that nine and a half. So again, I mean, all the numbers trending, trending that way. Points per play, the blended formula makes Ole Miss a five-point favorite. The on-field makes them a nine-point favorite, yards per play. The lowest projection I have here is Ole Miss minus three, and that's the yards per play

blended projection with the preseason priors baked in. But the on-field number makes that Ole Miss minus five. So I think I think Ole Miss is kind of flying under the radar right now. from a perception standpoint, I don't know why. I mean, they're undefeated. Conjewski game, probably. Yeah, I mean, they just throttled Tulane, though. So I don't know. And this is at home.

You know, if this was in Death Valley, like maybe I could understand more of the LSU love. But I think LSU's writing on this perception from the Clemson game. And they, that was not all that impressive, and they haven't really been all that impressive since then. So I like the rebels here. Real question here, Tyler, is how much did you adjust the number when you found out that Landry Kiffin and Whitweeps were dating? That's all it really matters.

Yeah, my friend and editor at vason.com, Adam Burke, texted me immediately. It was like, how much did you adjust the number for this? And I was like, honestly, you know the guy's probably been pillow talking the whole game plan. So Lane's got an opposite. So if anything, I think it favors Ole Miss. Oh, man, that's funny. And then we talk about the importance of individual players and injuries and things like that. obviously Trinidad, Chamberliss has played quite well in Ole Miss's quarterback position since

Austin Simmons got injured. If somebody plays well or, you know, a quarterback that isn't the starter is starting, how do you adjust for that thought process or are they very similarly rated? Yeah, so I didn't adjust the number for that, but in these type of situations where you have a quarterback change, at least in this situation specifically, we have a data point now of him being in the game and what that looked like. And again, they beat the crap out of Tulane. So that makes me feel good. Now, had he had he played against Tulane, you know, they struggled and then my number still was on Ole Miss here. Like, obviously that would give you some more pause and I would have to do a deeper dive on that. But the fact that the numbers are so heavy, you know,

the team numbers are so heavy on Oldness and he looked good, you know, and got the job done last week. I think that gives me a lot of confidence still in Oldness. All right. Let's do this. This is the question I've been waiting. ask and it's not one of your bets but i think that ohio state is one of the highest rated teams um in terms of like television ratings right people like betting on ohio state i think they're probably one of the more often bet teams and this line against Washington this weekend on the road i believe opened up at 13 and a half now it's down to eight and a half it's a pretty significant line movement and i'm just wanted your take on that line movement and whether or not this is a play

because I think there's going to be a lot of action coming in late on Ohio State if this number somehow gets down to like seven. Yeah, this is a game. This game kind of reminds me of, I forget which year in Michigan game it was, where we saw some really late money come in on Ohio State after the line had kind of been driven down, down, down, and then we saw some late money on Ohio State drive the line right back up to basically where it started. I think that might have been the 22 game at home.

But this game is really interesting. You know, Ari, as you know, I went to Ohio State. I'm an Ohio State fan. So, you know, we always have these conversations about like, you know, how am I feeling about the game from both, you know, blending my fandom with what the numbers say. My official number is Ohio State minus 13, which is in line with where it opened last week on the look ahead line. So the only thing that's changed since last week is Washington beat the crap out of Washington State, who is terrible. So now we're down to, you know, seven and a half. like you said now i do i do understand the line movement down though and here's why uh the on field opponent adjusted numbers so far a couple different formulas one has watch ohio state minus five and a half another one has ohio state minus seven and a half but then you've also got some that have ohio state you know by 19 and a half 21 and a half so the data's kind of all over the place on this game. So there's really, I don't know that there's a right answer. For me, I think if I had to make a play on the game, and I haven't done this yet, but I'm probably going to get around to it, I think the

play on the game would be the Ohio State team total over 30 and a half because I think no matter what happens, whether they cover, win, lose, whatever, I think no matter what Ohio State is going to score more than 30 and a half. And honestly, I think if Washington is going to keep it close, it's going to be in a shootout type game. I don't think Washington can hang with Ohio. State in a rock fight type game like the Texas game was. So I think either way, Ohio State's going to get theirs. It's just a matter of whether Washington keeps up or not. I cannot wait to see that game.

I can't wait because this is one of those where you can just kind of figure out who teams are. And I think we've got a bunch of those this week, Tyler. And I cannot wait to talk to you next time to find out how much you've had to adjust as tough competition has come in and teams have kind of told us what they really are. thank you so much of course thanks for having you appreciate you Tyler yep thank you