Andy & Ari On3 - Austin Simmons is ready to SHINE at Ole Miss | 2025 Betting Theories

Episode Date: May 9, 2025

Happy Graduation Weekend to all who are graduating! On today's show, we have Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons joining from Oxford. After backing up Jaxson Dart this past season, Simmons is ready to take command of Lane Kiffin's offense. Andy & Ari recall Simmons coming in against Georgia, his baseball career, and much more. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech hosted a very special guest in Lane Stadium on Wednesday night. Of course, Andy & Ari had to talk about Metallica in Blacksburg. Afterwards, Tyler Shoemaker, a betting analyst from VSiN, joins the show to discuss prominent betting theories and strategies ahead of the 2025 season. A lot of the questions involve lines changing, nationally televised games, and common misconceptions. An interview that will make you a better gambler in the fall! (0:00-1:17) Intro(1:18-12:29) Austin Simmons joins(12:28-17:03) Selling the Program(17:04-21:23) Austin's dog, Nova(21:24-24:11) Ole Miss Uni Combos(24:12-25:42) Closing up with Austin Simmons(25:43-28:54) Enter Sandman in Lane Stadium(28:55-36:29) Tyler Shoemaker joins(36:30-39:44) Why do lines move?(39:45-50:44) What is percentage of action?(50:45-56:09) Common Mistakes Made(56:10-1:03:06) Is Live betting a trap?(1:03:07-1:05:27) Nationally Televised Games(1:05:28-1:16:13) Bet Peeves(1:16:14-1:18:01) Conclusion Watch our show LIVE on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@On3sports Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey 

Welcome to Annie and Ariane three. Happy Friday. Epic graduation day. If you are a soon to be grad, a recent grad, Ari, we're going to have a guy who's walking tomorrow. He took his last exam yesterday. New Ole Miss starting quarterback Austin Simmons, who is 19 years old and is going to have a bachelor's degree tomorrow.

You know, we fell in love with him in person by watching the drive that he had against Georgia when they needed him when Jackson Dart got hurt I think the audience is gonna fall in love with him when they hear him talk. So it I am Let me put it this way the next way too early top 25 Move it all miss into the top 10. Yeah he's a Really, really good kid and somebody who doesn't lack confidence. Super excited to see him cook this year

and it was awesome to have him on the show and my hope and you'll understand this reference once you watch the interview, Andy, is that we can get him to take Lane Kiffin's Pilates class with us. Pilates all. Oh yeah. Yeah, that would be incredible for the show. Incredible for your flexibility and my flexibility.

I don't think Austin needs any help, but I do think we probably need a lot of help. Not a diet, it's a lifestyle, you know? All right, let us meet the new QB1 of the Ole Miss Rebels. Here's Austin Simmons. We are honored to be joined by Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons, who just performed his last act as an undergraduate. He finished his last final and then for whatever reason is celebrating with us.

Austin, what was the test? It was actually an SRA 371 class. I believe it was on leadership and I felt confident about it. Good. Well, I'm glad, I'm glad. So you're walking on Saturday. This is amazing to me. You're graduating this Saturday. You are 19 years old.

Originally, you were a class of 25 guy and you reclassified to 23. So you could be just getting done with your first spring practice at Ole Miss. Instead, you are walking in graduation ceremonies and you'll be a grad student this fall. Yes, sir. How did you do this?

It was just a long process in high school, I'd say. It was really a big help when I was doing dual enrollment in high school. Got my AA degree and I transferred those credits to Ole Miss. So that really took like a, that really gave me like a big advantage, I'd say. But my dad really helped me out in the process. I remember my last exam as a college student where I was like, you walked out and it was over with. And I know that Austin probably has more academics in his future because you're still playing college football.

But like that, like relief of like of it's over, I did it. Tell me, in terms of the pressure situations that you've been in, has there ever been anything in college that has stacked up to what happened in that Georgia game last year? I don't really think too much of the Georgia game, honestly. I would say I was more worried about this down test in that game. I can't really. Yeah, that's a good thing. Yeah.

Well, OK, so we were at that game and I was down cutting the back of the end zone that you guys were moving toward on that drive. And I just remember watching you and being shocked at how calm you were. And now you saying this makes perfect sense that this was this was just another another situation for you but yeah can you take us back to that moment when you know Jackson's out you don't know how long he's gonna be out you guys are just giving up a touchdown like right down the field and you've got to go in what what what are your first thoughts as you get on the field

I'm really just executing the game plan, you know, just take whatever I perform throughout the entire week and just executing on the field. Caden Lee walked up to me on the sidelines saying just play my ball. Don't really worry about anything. I have nothing to worry about. They got my back. Then Kiffin walked up to me, said

we're just going to go with the game plan. Then we just went on down the field and scored. Austin. One of the things that amazed me about that game. Oh, go ahead. Go ahead. I got it. I'm sorry.

We were there at the game, Austin. We were covering it. We were in the press box when Jackson got hurt. The collective breath was taken out of that, that stadium. I don't know if you felt that Andy, but it felt like everybody was like, Oh my God, we've been waiting for this game. We've been waiting for this opponent. We've been waiting to prove that Ole Miss

is a legit national championship contender. And it felt like people were resigned to the fact that they're gonna be screwed. Obviously what you came in and did was amazing. You went right down the field and scored a touchdown, but as a player, do you feel that? Do you feel how the emotion of the crowd plays into the game?

Are you so locked in down there that you're just worried about handling your business? And did you feel like, hey, I'm gonna show these people it's gonna be okay? I mean, hey, our morale on the sideline wasn't really like, nothing really changed after that whole chain of events happened. I think everyone really believed in me in that moment. No one's really worried when I stepped in the game. And at the same time, I wasn't really worried in me in that moment. No one was really worried when I stepped in the game. And at the same time, I wasn't really worried about the outside noise.

So I was really just focused on just leading the team down the field and just getting back on track. So I remember watching you before that game, and that was the most interesting thing to me because at that point didn't know you were going to get in the game at all. And I was talking to some Ole Miss folks about you before the game started because I was interested in how you were acting with your teammates, because you were acting like you already

were the starter that, you know, getting everybody pumped up, you're going around to everybody, you kind of touched every single person on the on the way in the in the warm ups. And how hard is that to do as the backup when you're you know, you don't really have the authority to be a leader, but you know, at some point that day is coming for you and you want to be ready. I mean, yeah, like it's something to think about, you know, you're doing a lot, you know, throughout the entire season and you know, you're not guaranteed to play in a game. But at the same time, you're just as important as a starter. in a game, but at the same time, you're just as important as a starter. You have to perform just as well. You have to know everything that's going on in the entire game plan.

So I didn't really think too much of it because I knew my role and I figured out that I just had to just play my role and my time would come. Austin, do you think that you, I mean, like you're calm, cool and collected on the show. You were calm, cool, collected in the stadium that day. Do you think as you go into an offseason and people are counting on you, the team is being shifted to you and your leadership, do you think that coming in and showing what you're capable of in that Georgia game has helped, you know, draw them up some offseason hype for Ole Miss?

And then also conversely, has it helped you approach this offseason differently? Like now that you have that experience, like you know what you're able to do in the highest leverage of moments? Like how has that impacted your mentality going into the off season? I don't think it really changed much. Um, really, like I know exactly how good I was, you know, before that Georgia game even happened. Um, it was just a matter of time,

like whether or not I was going to showcase her or not. But hey, that game happened and that event happened. So here I am. I got the little hype going. Now I just got to go out there next season for Formo. And I heard you in another interview talking about you feel like you've been in Ole Miss forever in this era. Like going into year three is kind of being at a school forever. I was thinking about this, like most of the receivers

you can be throwing to are either young freshmen or guys who are coming in from other schools. How much have you been like the welcomed Ole Miss? All right, here's how things work around here, guy. It's been kind of weird, you know, when you have like 22 year old kids coming in, you know, they expect like a 20 year old quarterback

or 21 year old quarterback going into year three. So like, it's kind of weird to like really think about, but at the same time, you know, it makes me feel good. You know, it makes me feel good that, Hey, I'm this young guy and I'm really out here just going to lead this team full of a lot of chances. And some guys that was in the same class, I was in the same class with so it's pretty good. How did that decision work? I'm curious, like you mentioned your dad helped

and you're dual enrolled. So you had your a when you're done in high school. How did the decision work to reclassify from 2025 to 2023? Oh, um, it was really possible after I finished all my high school credits. I just like had to think about the pros and cons of it. Like am I like really that good enough to do it or if I'm really ready to like make that big jump in life and just be on my own. So I just really broke it down with my family and just came to the conclusion like, yeah,

I think I'm ready for it. And I thought Ole Miss was the best fit for it. I'm just trying to wrap my mind around that. You said 25 to 23? Yeah. Oh no, Ari, I'm gonna go to my kids tonight and show them this interview. So, awesome.

I have a 14 year old and a 15 year old. And I'm like, guys, I know you think the real world is a long way away, but I want you to have a bachelor's degree by 19. Look at this guy. He did it. You can do it too, mostly because I'm not sure they're going to be on scholarship,

and it'll help mom and dad's wallet if they can just be done with college by 19. But yeah, I'm going to call your dad and be like, how did he do it? Get the whole list going, and we're going to make this happen. Every single time anybody who enrolls early, the people who are analyzing the game always say, this kid should be at his senior prom right now.

And you know how they always say that? He literally should be now. Anybody ever say this kid should be at his junior prom right now, like at any point, like during your, like that's, so you missed out on junior and senior year of high school? Yep. And I don't regret it at all.

No, no, no, I wouldn't either if I were you. I would wanna get to Ole Miss as soon as possible as well, but I'm just trying to round my mind around like, cause like when you're a sophomore, you're a child. And when you're a junior, you're a little bit of a bigger child and then senior, you're a mega child. And then when you get, so you're still a child. Yeah.

Hey, that's a child with a bachelor's degree. That's a child with a bachelor's degree who's the starting quarterback at Ole Miss and is rocking shit in the Georgia game. It's incredible. Now that you are that guy, you mentioned, you know mentioned you had to manage it when you were the backup. Now that you have that responsibility, that you're the guy everybody's looking up to, does it feel different or did the first two years help you get to this point where it went smooth? I would say I had the typical mindset of a quarterback, you know, before I even enrolled. So I just

talked about it with my quarterback coach and like what really to expect out of it and what to like really do and what I really want to accomplish out of it. And I'd say yeah, like these two years definitely helped, you know, seeing how Dart like really acted around the team, how he involved everyone and just taking everything from what I've seen and like learned from on and off the field from him and just adding some some things to my toolbox and really just kind of take it on to next year. Hey, Austin, you know, Andy and I went to the NFL draft this year and you know, did a show there and we always marvel as normal people that like what would that feeling be like to actually be at the draft, get selected, get all that money, start a pro career. Like that feeling of being there must be unbelievable.

And I'm wondering from your standpoint, what was it like watching Jackson Dart get drafted where he did? And is it, did it like land to you that you could be a few short years away from, from that and seeing somebody close to you, somebody you shared a room with, uh, the quarterback room with like do that. Like, what was it like for you to live through that experience? Oh yeah, definitely seen him happy. Seeing the comp is like his lifelong dream of just getting his name called on TV.

Um, I was really, I was really happy for him. I was at velvet ditch. Like when I saw it, I was actually hosting a recruit over there at the same night. So it was good just like telling that recruit saying, hey, that could be you up there in the future. And basically I thought the same thing in my head, really seeing one of my great friends up there getting called up and draft

and really just taking us out to New York. Like that's a great film. Hey, Andy, can I sell the program, baby? That's how you sell the program. That could be you up there. I want to I want to I want to ask, though, like, I've always like, because you know, that people host like players host a fit of visitors when they come. I would be so, like scared, because like, I get nervous when people come to my house to show them a good time. The responsibility to make sure that these recruits have a good time. What's it like to

host a visitor? Do you put pressure on yourself to show how awesome the place is? What do you do with them? What's your plan? Just being yourself. Don't ever try to be this false image of yourself just so you can tell a recruit to come to the school. Just being myself, you know, don't ever try to like to be this like false image of yourself just so you can like tailor recruit to come to the school. Like just being myself, you know, really letting them know like this is who I am and that and like how they can be a great fit at the school. Like I break everything down on like why I chose a school and they like it, they like it. But I want them to love it at the same time. at the same time. That's a great plan. I went on one official visit in my career.

It was to Princeton actually. And I was 17 and my host was this guy named Tom. He's a defensive end and he shakes my hand and he goes, nice to meet you. We have a bartending class tonight. I was like, all right, I'm gonna like college. This is gonna be great. So you got wild.

I drank my first beer there. Yeah, they get down. So I didn't realize that I'm gonna take you to a tutoring system or something. There's no place called the velvet ditch though. So, but I see Oxford has the library. So you can always say, oh, we're going to library. And the adults don't know what that means. like everyone thinks they're talking about a real library.

Oh, it's a real library. I mean, you can study quite a bit in that library. I've studied in that library before. Awesome. Have you been to Ajax Diner? I want to go. I've heard about it, but I just never went before. Andy took me there when I have my only time or one of my few times in Oxford, and it is the best country fried steak sandwich I've ever had in my entire life. There's mashed potatoes on it, bro. Like go like now, what are you going to stay healthy? Well, he doesn't have any class. Like he's already like,

what are you doing right now? No, he's got to get a master's degree now. So I, I heard you say that you wanna do the master's in sports management. How much of your studies have been to kind of help manage the life you have now? Really like it's nothing really different. The schedule is really built like within itself. It's just a matter of like how well you're good at time management, like and how much of

a procrastinator you really are, like just really like putting aside like all the important things just for like, things that don't really mean anything like, so I'd rather just go home at first rather than just go, go out to the field and just like just sit there the entire day, you know, so I'm just going to complete the work I have and then just move on with the rest of the time I have. I meant in general, like dealing with the NIL stuff and

because because you're you're going to be qualified from an education standpoint to be your own agent pretty soon. That's exactly what I want to do. That wouldn't be like in the NIL field, you know, just like because I'm in it right now. So like why not just be a part of it? You know, why not like just advice of kids like how You know, why not, like, just advise some kids, like, how to approach it, like, what to really, like,

get out of it, what they want to, like, what they really want out of it, you know? So, that's what they really want to get into. Lastly, from me, Ole Miss was a team that was heavily invested in NIL last year. You guys brought in a lot of transfers. The thought process was that that would be the thing that paves the way to competing for a national championship

in the playoff. You guys fell short of that. How much does that drive you now that you're the face of the program? And how much, how badly do you want to be the guy that's calling the snap when you guys do that? Oh, it's the only thing I really want. Definitely that's the top goal of winning

a national championship and really just leading this team and paving this road to glory. You know what I mean? So really just having all that great juice, like storming the field at the end of the year in January, like that's the one thing I really want. And that's the one thing I think we can achieve as a team. So you mentioned you mentioned juice, very famous, famous

entity in Oxford juice kiffin. I saw a picture that Joe judge when your coaches tweeted out the other day of you and your dog in the meeting room. Is this the most dog friendly college football facility in America? Juiced Kiffin, obviously, Lane Kiffin's dog has the run of the place. Who's yours? What's your pooch's name?

So this is my dog Nova. She's not here at the current moment. So she's about 10 months old. And she's just an amazing dog. She's a boxed or a box in a lab. Oh, that is adorable. I didn't realize she was that. So she's all puppy, like I'm imagining

gonna get a little bit bigger and a little bit wild now, right? She is a crazy dog, I'll tell you that right now. Crazy dog. Do you have to be QB one to bring your dog in or or can can other guys bring their dogs too? I was bringing my dog in you know at the end of the season so it wasn't really that big of a deal. You have Bubba, we have Juice, and now we have Nova. So why not make the

addition? Last one for me. I've heard that you have taken some hot yoga with Lane Kiffin. Have you done his Pilates class yet? No, I have not. I've actually heard it's really good for you, but I don't know if that's my speed or not though. That's the thing. Andy, we have to go do it.

I feel like we have to go take that class. What's the big thing about it? I don't really understand it though. It's that you use machines and stuff. I'm just not sure I'm flexible enough. I've taken yoga. I heard you talking about the hot yoga, and I agree with you.

It's way harder than people think. You're sweating like crazy. They're making you do pushups that are not really pushups, but they last forever. Like, it's tough. It's mentally tough and physically tough. I would say that. got to take your ankle into a machine and then move your entire body by moving your

leg up and down. Like it's like it's intense. I don't think I'm flexible enough to do it either. But I think we should you take your tarp off too. And you sweat in there, right? Like that's the whole point. Well, he can do it. You're not taking your tarp off. I actually right here. You know what this is? This is like a chest and back hair trimmer that I have to hit before the

summertime. I bought this on Amazon. I just want you to know. Is that Manscaped? Yeah, it's not Manscaped. It's something else. Oh, that you listen. You need the NIL deal with Manscaped. I got like four different. We were given

the old podcast. We had Manscaped and like I ended up giving out Manscaped sets to neighbors because they kept sending me ones and it's a little awkward when you show up to a neighbor's house with the with the ball trimmer but they do appreciate it. Yeah, we had a lot of those. I had like 19 ball trimmers. Ball mowers, right? What they sent like 30 of them to your house. I don't know how many

listen Austin Austin's a little higher in IL level than we are I don't know what they sent. Like 30 of them to your house. I don't know how many listen. Austin. Austin's a little higher in IL level than we are. Ari. This he's got some bigger brands talking to him. I'd rather have Gillette though like Gillette Labs is like. What you're you're like a wet shave guy with the razor. Yeah.

Of course. You're of course. You're an you're an electric razor guy. Ari. Of course. It's a trimmer. It's like the yeah. No. I mean, of course you're, of course you're an, you're an electric razor guy, are you? Of course. It's a trimmer. It's like the, yeah. No, you gotta put that shave cream on it.

Well, the thing that's crazy is like when I'm like clean shaven, I look like the person from it's Pat movie. So like, I need to like have some sort of, uh, some sort of like stubble on my face. And if I went on Austin doesn't know what that is but before we let you go, I do I do want to ask about baseball because you're a lefty who throws 96 like it's that's still a possibility for you down the road, but I know you're not playing baseball this year. How tough was that decision to to decide not to play? Oh, it was

an emotional decision. I'd say you know being a part of the sport ever since I was six, you know, that's something you don't really toss it aside pretty easily. Um, I definitely say a lot really went into it. You know, it's just the thought of like where I was really going at the University of Ole Miss and really the University of Ole Miss at Ole Miss. Sorry. Yeah, really like just where I wanted to like, like achieve my goals that like I feel as though that had a better opportunity in in football so I just it was best for me and my family. Do you one last one and then I promise we'll let you go.

No, no, I'm loving this. I think he's got, he's got no more cloud no more tests. Yeah, you can join our next show then how about you just join every day? We'd love to have you. But I feel like every single time you guys wear the Navy helmets, you wasted an opportunity to wear the light blue helmets. Cause like those are like those, I mean, they're pretty uniforms. I'm not saying they're ugly, but the light blue river, do you have one? I saw one earlier. Greatest uniform combination, I think in the entire sport. Like, do you care about what you know, like those those ones, but with the helmets blue in the up, I don't know.

You know what I'm talking about. There's a blue helmet. Yes, the light blue helmet, red jersey. Yeah. I would definitely say one of my favorite uniform combos is definitely 2023 Auburn away game. You know, we wore Navy, the white and red jersey and white pants. Like I love that.

I love that combo. And also I think you can't go wrong with the Kentucky uniform last year, you know, powder, powder white. Like that's just something cool. And, but I think Navy is better than powder. Now that you're well, you're not the old guy. You're 19, but now that you got a degree on the wall, do you get input in the uniform?

Maybe, I don't know. I think that's just the leadership thing. I got to figure that out. I wasn't really too in tune with that. I just found out the same day as everyone else on Ole Miss social media. That's it. Somebody's going to tap you on the shoulder and be like, awesome, what are we wearing this week?

So get ready for lots of decisions to be made by you as you grow up What's it like to work to go to a school that cannot have a anti Twitter policy Mmm, because there's no way that that Lane kiffin could enforce that right? One thing about Kevin that that man's a troll, I'll tell you that right now. And I think some of that passed down to me, you know, some people like really pointed out some of the trolling I was doing. But I don't know, like I didn't know there's an anti Twitter policy at all. Like I'm just finding this out right now. Oh, other schools used to try to do it. like I didn't know there's an anti Twitter policy at all. Like I'm just finding this out right now. Oh, other schools used to try to do it.

Yours is the one like you could never get away with it because your coach is too active. Like that was Sweeney. I don't think he's ever tweeted in his life. So he can do it, but Lane Kiffin can't do it. Anti dancing and TikTok videos at West Virginia rule. Oh, that's right. That's right.

I don't know. Do you dance in TikTok videos? No, that's not my speed. Yeah. I can't do that. Like, that's what I can't do. But I do. We found out from Dylan Sampson at Tennessee last year that if you're not athletic, you can't dance like it's like you either. Like we tried to do dance moves last year and it was an absolute disaster. I'm sure like with your athleticism, you'd be able to pick it up pretty good. Maybe we're gonna see. I'm actually gonna do it with glow TikTok dance with Winnie Watkins. Oh, there you go. Tag Rich Rod in it when you do it. You wanna troll. If you wanna troll, Lane Kiffin level,

that'll elevate you. Let's get okay in there. Because here's the thing, Austin, if I were in your position, and like I know that you wanna be a good and you want to be a steward of the game, and a wonderful leader, if I was as good at football as you, and I was the starting quarterback at Ole Miss, I would be throwing hands on Twitter all the time. I would be talking my trash. I'd be jabbing people, you know, and you know, maybe if you lose a game. This is why you'd be a shitty quarterback. Ari, I think it'd be cool. You work so hard in your life to get to a point that you're in right

now. Like, enjoy that stuff, man. Like, I would think Kiffin does it. And like there are times where people dunk on him and he dunks, but that's part of the game. You know, I would definitely say y'all haven't seen anything that I troll a lot. Okay, you can ask him in the locker room, like I'm probably one of the biggest trollers in there. Yeah. Okay. I saw joke around like I get people in their feelings a little bit and they bounce back like that's just what comes with

it. Like I'm from South Florida. Like we talked a lot of smackdown. Yeah. Yeah. And like the thing too is that there's going to be like aggregated posts on on three of like can you guys believe what Austin Simmons tweeted like do like funny funny like, you know, sub tweets and all that stuff. You do it. Don't let me down. Do it. Maybe the Gillette the I'm not going to be like, do like funny, like, you know, sub tweets and all that stuff. You do it. Don't let me down. Do it. Maybe the Gillette.

The Gillette deals coming along with a bunch of other ones. If you're doing that. So yes, good. Awesome. Thank you so much. Congratulations. And enjoy graduation day. Thank you. I appreciate you. I appreciate you. Yeah. Super impressive what you're doing, man. I appreciate you all for having me. Yeah, super impressive what you're doing, man.

That is Austin Simmons. Hopefully, he'll be doing Pilates with me and Ari at some point very soon. Look at that. Look at that. Oh yeah. Yeah, you're ready. You're ready.

You're ready. Hey, Ari, before we get to Tyler Shoemaker, because Tyler's gonna come on, and we got a request the other day to do some shows that explain how to Gamble on college football and so we're gonna do a couple Tyler Shoemaker from Vista in the Vegas sports and entertainment network is coming now and we're gonna talk about kind of the theory of it and how to shop for the best line and and What you should be looking for. Yes, and then on month

Yeah on of it and had a shot for the best line and, and what you should be looking for. Yes. And then on month. Yeah. On Monday, we've got Colin from the action network and he is going to come and talk some specific plays that he's already noticed that he likes Colin Wilson from the action network, he's outstanding. Uh, we, we got to sit next to him at the. Michigan Washington national championship game and he had a he had a future on Washington he put in about a year ahead of time that basically the book was trying to get him to to let him buy him out because he was he was he stood to become a very rich man if

If Washington won the national title, but he had hedged it so well that he was he was gonna win either way and did but we'll talk to him national title, but he had hedged it so well that he was he was going to win either way and did, but we'll talk to him on Monday, but. Talking to Tyler today, but before that we didn't get to this on yesterday show because we were talking about all the the committee, the blue ribbon panel and all that potential executive orders. Metallica played Lane Stadium. Enter Sandman live at Lane Stadium. Play it. That is awesome. It's badass. Yeah. How awesome would it have been if they just sent the football team running out while they

were playing it? I made me want to run out. I miss football season so much Andy. So I'm going to see this tour in June. So I'm very excited. I'm going to see it in Tampa. Yeah, yeah. Limp Bizkit is the opening act by the way. Interesting. They're still alive? That's crazy. Very much so. No, very pumped to see Metallica. But them doing that at Lane Stadium is just it's just perfect.

I think we know based on what we've seen with some of the the ad reveals and the partnership reveals from the EA Sports College football game, I think we're going to get the real inner Sandman entrance in the game, which is going to be spectacular. So another reason to be excited for college football season. Here's another one. You're going to be excited for college football season. Here's another one. You're going to be a smarter better because you're about to learn a bunch from Tyler Shoemaker from the Vegas Sports

and Information Network. Here's Tyler. We are joined by Tyler Shoemaker of VeeCin, the Vegas Sports and Information Network and the T-Shoe Index, also known as the guy Ari Techs, when he needs to know what we're on on a given day. Yeah, just so you guys know, like we do a pick show every Monday against the spread. If I actually bet all those games based on what I think, I would be a losing gambler.

I am a losing gambler anyway, but I win sometimes because of Tyler. If I were to follow his guidelines, I would have a really good chance of winning, but I play his games and then I go down live rabbit holes and do my own thing and all. I can't control myself as he can attest, but Tyler, it's really good to have you on. We've been friends now for years. I've been texting you every day during gambling season for plays. You give him to me. He's been so good to me and I appreciate it.

But I also want people to get an idea of how to bet and like some of the like do's and don'ts and misnomers and you know, myths and all these things that you know. So welcome to the show and thanks for being here. Yeah, of course. Appreciate you guys having me. We've talked about doing this for a long time now. I'm glad. You know, now you're with with Andy, I guess Andy loosen the reins because I know when you were at the athletic we we had some guidelines, we could not get together for a show. So I'm

glad we were finally able to do it. Yeah, we have no rules now. Yeah. No rules. Just right. What brand is that? That's at back at back steakhouse. Yeah, that sounds so good right now. So Tyler, I sent you a list of things I wanted to talk about. Um, and I just want to set the table for people to understand your process. Right? Like if we were to ask you about the intricacies of Miami secondary and what you think of their actual personnel, you might have a hard time answering that because you're a numbers guy. What is your process and how do you come to their actual personnel, you might have a hard time answering that because you're a numbers guy.

What is your process and how do you come to the table with plays that you think are worthy of playing on Saturdays? Yeah, I mean, you're right. It's all math based. Of course, to get a rating, my preseason process, I do have to take in recruiting rankings. And I have a proprietary development ranking, which is kind of a correlation between how have you recruited versus how have you actually performed on the field. So think like, Iowa, you know, they don't recruit the greatest, but they've been able to turn three stars into into really good college football players. So I definitely account for that. But on any given Saturday, it really is just about the math. It's about what my projection says versus what the line is and where I think the line is going. And we play it from there. And I'm a big process guy over, you know, results. Of course, you want to cash bets. That's the name of the game. But if I lose a bet, but had the absolute right process on it, like

I'll, I'll sleep fine at night. I'll sleep fine at night. So when you say your projections, you're actually going to come up with a number, right, than expected. So like the Pitt, West Virginia game or whatever it is, where it's going to say, I expect Pitt to score 27.43 points in West Virginia to score 23.24. And then are you just looking for lines

that don't match that? Yeah, I mean, basically, in a nutshell, yes, obviously, you have to take other things into consideration. Like, okay, if there's a, you know, usually my my projections are within, within about five points, we'll say, on any given game. So if I see a discrepancy of like, eight points, that's not just like automatic, like, okay, I'm gonna bet the house. So if I see a discrepancy of like 8 points, that's not just like automatic, like, OK, I'm going to bet the house. No, I, you have to take it a step further. Is a, is a star quarterback out? That sort of thing. Is the, is the coach suspended? You know, not going to say any names. But, you know, that, that sort of stuff has to matter. So you definitely have to, you know, come up with a number, which is the projection piece. And then there's the analysis

piece beyond that. So when, and when I say analysis, I don't mean like Ari said, I don't mean looking at the starting safeties for a team. I mean, looking at the betting market, where's the where did the line open? Where is it at now? You know, those type of things have to matter. And then of course, key injuries matter. So that's my analysis piece on top of the projection. So when those two things align, that's that's a bet.

But the thing that's beautiful about what Tyler does, and it's something that I struggle with obviously as somebody who is a patented prisoner of the moment and very strongly opinionated is when you remove the names and the jerseys and everything from the actual math, you're able to weed out your bias towards what you think is gonna happen.

And given there are certain times where he'll, like last year for instance, like he was riding Florida State. And are certain times where he'll like like last year, for instance, like he was riding Florida State and I'm like, what are we doing? Like, why are we doing this? And sometimes it worked out and sometimes it didn't, but he doesn't care that Florida State was an absolute disaster last year. He cares what the numbers say. And you know, for the most part, he's pretty sharp on those sort of things.

But I tell you, Tyler, you're not worried if Florida State wins the game in that situation, you're looking to see if they cover the spread, right? Or how much of a disaster it's been in comparison to what we thought they were gonna be in the preseason? All the narrative, all the thought process, all the storylines that we discuss that nauseam on the show is completely and utterly irrelevant to him, which kind of frees him from why people bet to begin with, which is, no, most people just, here's what I think is gonna happen, or here's what I want my favorite team to do,

or I want to be entertained. Like he's just trying to get to the heart of it. Am I am I doing this right? Yeah, that that Florida State is a is a perfect example. I, you know, I appreciate you throwing out the one team that killed us over and over last year and then didn't cover any spreads. But, but but for every Florida State, there's a Notre Dame who I was higher on than pretty much everybody all season long. And

we we wrote that cash cow. I mean, all season, you know, basically up until the national championship game, we wrote them. And then, if I recall, we were on Ohio State, but Notre Dame was was the flip side of that coin, where, you know, that a lot of people, especially after that Northern Illinois game, I don't you know, how many arguments that we get in when people on Twitter are aware, like, but they look, they lost to Northern Illinois. And it's like, I, I don't care that I, how many arguments do we get in when people on Twitter are aware? It's like, but they lost to Northern Illinois.

It's like, I don't care that I, to be honest with you, like peak behind the curtain, I didn't even put, I didn't even factor that game into their rating because it was so aberrant from a data standpoint that I just, I did not think that was going to be the team that showed up. And, and I was right, thankfully. Yeah. And you, you can hear Andy, like, you know, while we're researching, you're probably like looking at that charts and two deeps.

Like I'm like, what does Tyler race? What, what, what does rating say? Like that's what kind of helped guide me into like the Notre Dame. Cause you know, Tyler, I don't know how much you listen or go, but I was all over Notre Dame all year, but I feel like you and I shared that even before that run. Um, so I want to get into the weeds though, because people listening, you know, here's the thing,

like I'm a big stock guy, I like buying stocks. And I think that Warren Buffett is the smartest human being that's ever walked on the face of the earth. But the thing that I resent is, you know, Warren, who just stepped down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway after an incredible run. By the way, fun fact, if you would have invested $1, for every dollar you invested at the beginning of his run at

Brookshire Hathaway would have been worth $55,000 when he retired. So, but he buys businesses and he does it in a way where he finds that they're undervalued. And he always talks about his principles in the in the color, right? Like, I like to buy undervalued businesses that I think are good businesses that will last a long time, but he never has given you the blueprint of what he does mathematically. And I don't know that you could do that either, because you're a nerd, and it's all computer based and all that stuff. But I think there's something that people would want to hear on the show right now, which is some of the thought processes that a daily gambler that I struggle with, even, you know, to this day with you, would come across. And I have a

list of questions that I want to go through, like kind of as a guide for people who are interested or who gamble to, like, learn why things work. If that's okay with you, Andy, is that good? Andy Bensky That's wonderful. Todd Johnson So first of all, why do lines move, Tyler? Tyler Gerard So there's, there's a couple of reasons. The most common one that's going to account for most line movement is just a sharp or

respected better that that book values places a bet. You know, generally it's going to be a maximum limit bet on a side and then they're going to move the number. That's most of the time. That's the number. That's, most of the time, that's the case. The, the other case would be news-related and kind of correlated with that is if they start taking a lot of money very quickly, they will start to panic because they move lines based on information. And if, if the information coming in, which is a ton of money coming in very quickly on, on one side, they will, they will move it. So for instance, if,

if a quarterback, a star quarterback gets announced out, you'll see that line start to move within a couple of minutes of that newsbreaking. And that's because people either had information a little bit prior and beat the rush, or a smart group or person will give out that play and all of the people that follow them will go immediately bet that side. So it's not necessarily a matter of like, are they taking a lot of bets on a side? But it's like, did we just take a huge rush of money very quickly? That tells the book that maybe something's up information wise, maybe injury related or suspension related and they will move the line accordingly. And the books are trying to keep balance in terms of money on both sides of the line, right?

That's the entire point because they don't want to be overexposed on one side, right? So that's, I'm very glad you said that because I had that in my notes to bring up. That's actually a very common misconception about really okay. Yeah, so I've I've heard from multiple bookmakers over the years of just you know doing my research and listening to two guys that I respect on on podcasts and shows and I think the guy from Circa, Jeffrey Benson, posted a funny meme that was like Basically saying like a million dollars of recreational money doesn't hold the same weight as $2,500 in one sharp bet. So it's, it's, it's not, it's not a 50-50 game, you know, it's not a zero-sum game. I mean, books will absolutely take a stance on one side if they feel their number is right.

And the sharp money has pretty much dried up and let them know where that number should be. They'll take all the public action in the world because they're not concerned because most people are not winning bettors. Yes, and like because they're trying to make money and everybody thinks it's supposed to be 50-50 and that's actually not true,

which brings me to my next question, which is something that drives me insane but people always tweet percentage of action like you have their Twitter is a cesspool of capping knowledge where people put stuff out there that's misleading and I've fallen for it like I've actually in my past like paid cappers online for plays that are terrible but like when how much does the percentage of action play into your thought process and how much to play into ours, if you like a game, but the public is on it, should, does that scare you? Does that matter? Like how does that, how does that pertain or, or impact your viewpoint? So I don't, I don't know when or where or why public bet splits became kind of public discourse. But like you said, it's everywhere.

It's at vson.com. That's one of the most popular pages on vson.com is the betting splits page. But I will tell you the industry secret. It does not matter because one, you have to trust that that information is even accurate. And I don't know what motivation the books would have to give you that number if it was an edge, uh, to like we just talked about, like, uh, recreational books, like draft Kings fan duel, they're not taking max bets from sharp betters because they're going to limit or completely exclude those betters from

being able to bet at their places. So what happens is those books tend to follow the circus of the world or the pinnacles of the world that do welcome sharp action. And they kind of set the market. Those are market making books. And that's how, you've asked me before, well, how do you know when the line's gonna move

or where it's gonna go? And it's because I monitor, I'm constantly looking at an odd screen and I look and if I see Circa and or Pinnacle moving a certain way, that's my window to bet at, you know, to get my action down via people who have accounts and things like that for me at a DraftKings or a FanDuel because I know, okay, the Sharp books have moved this way, FanDuel and DraftKings or a FanDuel, because I know, OK, the Sharp books have moved this way. FanDuel and DraftKings are coming. In the next 30 minutes, they're going to move also. Andy, I got one more, because this is an important thing

to me. So I placed a very large wager this year on a game. And I'm not going to tell you which one. But I frantically called Tyler before the game, because it was a lot of money. And I I said the line is moving in the opposite direction of the action I bet it early in the week because I thought. That the line would get bigger and actually got smaller while the public was on the side that on the other side of it. And that scared the crap out of me it's like this Vegas does Vegas know something? Does Vegas know things and why do lines move in the same direction of where most action is sometimes?

And does it matter to you? And I think I told you this when we had that conversation, I think you pay more attention to it when you're invested and you've made a bet and you're like, oh God, where's the line gone? What's the public on, whatever. But I would say if you really track that over time, it is 50-50. And I actually did track because I was like, okay, I need data to back up these theories that are out there about if 80% of the

action is on one side, but the line moves the other way, people call that reverse line movement. Does that matter? If 80% of the public is on People call that reverse line movement. Like, does that matter? Like, you know, if 80% of the public is on one side and the line moves that way, does that matter? I tracked it all and it literally was a coin flip. There's no edge to be gained from that information. Or why does it happen though? Why does reverse line, if Vegas is taking a stance on a game and knows that the public is on the game,

why are they offering a more favorable spread on the other side? Like that, like for instance, the game was six and a half. The favorite was six and a half at the beginning of the week. 90% of the action on that game was on laying six and a half. And as the week went on, the spread was getting smaller. Were they because they were enticing people to bet more on the other side.

Yeah, because they, because like we, like we talked about off the top, they took sharp action on the other side. So that's why. Is that a way to tell, cause that's, I'm so fascinated by what you said to my question about staying even on both sides. And it makes more sense to do it the way you said,

which is if they got sharps on one side of it, if they feel like they have a good number, then yeah, you stand to make more money if the public goes opposite that number anyway. But is there a way for us, the betting public, to recognize when they've taken some sharp money and when they're favoring. Like what is the scenario Ari mentioned one of those that should be like a red flag like they're staking a you know putting a stake in the ground here.

Yep. Yeah well that so that's that's why I keep that odd screen up at all times because when you watch what the sharp books are doing that take that sharp action, those are the ones that make the market. So like DraftKings is not taking, you know, a perfect example here. You'll see, you'll see kind of betting news people tweet out like DraftKings just took a million dollar bet on such and such team to win. So people, I think people see that and they're like, Oh God, well, they must know something, I'm gonna go bet that side. But what you have to keep in mind is that, like I mentioned, DraftKings is not taking a million-dollar bet from someone that they deem as a respected better. So all they're gonna do is follow what the

Circas and the Pinnacles of the world do. So to answer your question, Andy, you know, kind of the flag to look for is, did Circa, did Pinnacle move in that direction? Yes. Andy Svazic Okay. Andy Serwer That's, that's, I mean, we could go forever on that. But that's, that literally could be your betting strategy. Even if you knew nothing about a sport, you can literally just watch the sharp books move and pick off the recreational books ahead of time and be a winning better at least for a little bit until they limit you. This this reminds me of the the, you know, the stock trading

firms that put in fiber first, and we're getting the the stock numbers faster than everybody else. And we're just fractions of a second ahead. Like I feel like that's what you're doing here. Like you're, you're just trying to beat those books by a few seconds before their line moves. Do you think if you bet every sharp position that you would be a winning better over the course of a year? So I will, I would like to track that, but I will tell you just kind of a

peak of my, my strategy with college football in particular that I noticed and implemented about halfway through. Ari, if you remember the first half of last college football season, we were just kind of like middling around. But the second half got really good. And that's because I, I identify, I identified a trend. And that's when my numbers were in agreement with the initial sharp movement at Pinnacle. Like those were hitting at a crazy percentage. So that's why that those are the only bets that I started putting in. Put them in early in the week against the software lines. I could see when Pinnacle was moving. So so we would get action down at other books. And, and that was really, really profitable in the second half of the season for us last year. So obviously, obviously, going forward, that will be, you profitable in the second half of the season for us last year. So obviously, obviously going forward, that will be the full time strategy.

You covered Louisiana Monroe last year. Was that the team? Louisiana Monroe was undervalued and every week he was like there was one game where there were seven point dog and won like 55 to 10. It was incredible. Andy. Bryant, Vincent, everybody. Yeah, I was on ULM for like six straight weeks.

And then there was one at the end of the year Where they ended up not hitting and I was like, but it was a fun and it was Arkansas State I learned during my ULM season when the video game came out last year that Apparently that they have a problem with Arkansas State. Oh, it's always do Tyler so what information do you see from cappers and gambling experts on Twitter that? What do you think is important to pay attention to? Or what do you think is not important or meaningless? I think so to answer the second part of that first, I think like we talked about the the bet splits, I, I just I think

people can get their minds wrapped in a pretzel with that. And at the end of the day, again, I've tracked it on numerous occasions with very large sample sizes, and it was it was truly a coin flip. So I don't think there's an edge to be gained there. And the other thing that I see a lot, and I understand it from a content making standpoint, like fine. But from an actual like betting edge standpoint, trends, for the most part, I think are pretty useless. Now, again, this is where critical thinking has to come in. Like, sometimes there are trends that, that have some, some merit to them. But I would say, you know, you see these trends that are like, this team is 1-12 in their last 13 games on Thursday nights against conference opponents. And it's like, well, OK, what does the team 13 years ago have to do with this team in college football? Like, you know what I mean? Like, that

type of stuff, I think is an interesting nugget. But it's like, Oh, like, just see that nod. Interesting. Move along with your process. I don't think that is any edge to be gained on the game that, you know, And sometimes coincidences probably just happen, right? Like just mathematical and all that. Yeah, exactly. Well, I mean game that, you know, and sometimes coincidences probably just happen, right? Like just mathematical and all. Yeah, exactly. Well, I mean, you're talking about,

and that's the other thing with those trends. A lot of them are such small sample sizes. So unless it's like a sample size of like a thousand games, I'm not that interested because it's, you know, it could just be variants, could just be coincidence. But again, especially when we're talking about college sports, when you're talking about something that happened 10 years ago, like what, what does that have to do with what's happening in 2025?

How do you balance it? Cause obviously you, you create content too and Beeson is an entire channel designed around analyzing these markets. How do you balance trying to give out good advice with trying to entertain people and give them something to listen? That's a great question. I don't think I've ever been asked that, but that is a very great question and something that I've struggled with at times because I'll be honest, when Beeson approached me

initially two years ago to come on to write and do guest appearances on their, on their TV programming, I told them, I was like, Look, I'm probably not the most entertaining person in the world, because what I do is so data driven that like, and I have such, you know, strong conviction about doing the right thing and trying to educate people the right way and not just throw out, you know, crazy content and trends and stuff just for the heck of it. Like I truly want to help people become better bettors. So it really is a balance. And that's why, you know, I'm not the most entertaining writer or content creator with with betting stuff. But I do think and the people that have have followed me for a long time can vouch that like, my information is solid. And, you know, I do definitely put in the work so you can you can trust that what

I'm saying is true, even if it's not the sexiest of content out there. I read your content. I just scroll to the bottom. It's like one of the plays, man. I don't need that. I don't need the explanation. Just give me the number. It's like with stocks like what's the three letters with symbol and I think there are a lot of people who want to know why. Because if they're gonna if they're gonna put their money down On this they want they want to know why I trust that he's done the homework. That's the thing

It's so easy to pull like oh this thing is gonna happen out of your ass This guy is like crunching numbers and like when he puts a bet in there's like he's done more research and has put more thought into it than anybody else so I know I Can feel good about it. But Tyler, what do you think people do wrong? Like casual college football bettors? Yeah, I think No. 1 probably bet with their heart. You know, people like to bet, bet on their favorite team, or maybe try to like reverse jinx it and bet against their favorite team. Which I think that would just be a miserable existence. You should probably call the number if you do that. But I also think people overestimate their ability to just, you know, quote, No

Ball. Like I think people will try to get too wrapped up in the matchups. And I just, I, there's really only like one or two guys. I know you guys are gonna have Colin Wilson on, he's one of the guys, Kyle Hunter is another guy. They do a great job with the scheme and the personnel matchups, and they can bet off of that, which I greatly respect, because I definitely cannot do that. And I think 98% of people can't do that. So unless, you know, you, if you have those matchups and that analysis to go with a number, like whether you follow my numbers or SP+, or whatever, having a number is going to be the most important thing at the end of the day. Even if you know nothing about Scheme or Personnel, having a number is going to be the most important thing, because betting is just about math. But if you have the other stuff on top of that, that's great too. But I just, I don't think you can just no ball and be a great better because otherwise,

otherwise Nick Saban, Nick Saban will be, you know, a fantastic better. And I'm sure he's probably not. I'm also sure he probably doesn't give a crap about betting. Yeah. You think, oh, they're outside linebackers. He bets on Mercedes dealerships. Yeah, that's a pretty good bet. Especially if the side mirror breaks.

Let me tell you. Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty good bet. Especially if the side mirror breaks. Let me tell you. Yeah, you all the outside linebackers a step too slow and he's gonna be in charge of covering a slot. It's like you could go down the rabbit all their up there. Left guard is a weak link and they're in the defensive line. They're playing and it's like a lot of times that stuff doesn't end up mattering for whatever reason in terms of like the number like it might matter in the game, but it doesn't matter like

the spread. Okay, let me ask you this. And this is something that I am always tempted to do. And I think a lot of people do just because it's a nice, warm, fuzzy feeling inside. But should people buy points? And if not, why? And if so, when? So I wrote a whole piece on this because it is it is a complicated answer. But the short answer is, yes, there is a time that it mathematically makes sense

to do that. I would argue a lot of the time that people do buy points, it doesn't make sense mathematically for them, and they do it. Doug and I have had this conversation on Kings of the North a bunch of times too, where he likes to feel, like you said, warm and cozy, and he calls it comfort. And like, in college football,

to give you the short version of my article, if you're buying on or off of three, the number three or the number seven, and basically getting it for 10 cents or less on the dollar. So, you know, from one 10, like minus one 10 to minus one 20 to get that key number, that makes sense. I I've got a whole there's a whole chart in my article that that tells you exactly when and it does and doesn't make sense to do so. But short answer is yes, there are times that it does make sense. I know there there are some people that say never buy points, but that's not

mathematically correct. But I also will say, especially now as we have progressed into the sports betting, being legal, you know, society we live in, books are starting to kind of overcharge for that. So it's becoming less and less likely that you're getting a good deal when you when you buy the points. So again, check out that article. You can Google Tyler Shoemaker when to buy points and it'll pop up. It's interesting because you do feel better when you have six and a half like you're laying six and a half or you're getting Seven and a half, but if you're going if you're a hundred dollar unit better and you're betting, you know Thirty thirty cents on the dollar to do it. Then you're giving away thirty percent of your income Can I ask an even dumber question and in more? For for the ones out there who are maybe just getting into this or don't quite understand how everything works, why is it important to not be on a three or a seven or a 10?

So not 10, just three or seven. Or just three or seven, yeah. Because of the historical distribution of the way college football is scored, you're more likely to end up on a three or a seven because of field goals and touchdowns. So that's becoming less of a thing in the NFL because when they change the extra point rules, more extra points are getting missed, they're going for two more. It doesn't

apply as much in the NFL anymore, but with college football, three and seven is still king, so that's, that's why, um, just the, the probability of the game landing on those numbers. Yep. There's so much grab ass in college football too. Like just like crazy things that go on, like block extra points or two point conversion attempts when you're not supposed to do it and turnovers and safeties, it's just like, it's just a wild West.

It's like eight, nothing in a lot of games. You don't even know why. And it just gets off that number. But, um, okay. How about this? This is my number one, uh, issue in life. Wild West. It's like eight nothing in a lot of games. You don't even know why. And it just gets off that number. But okay, how about this? This is my number one issue in life. And I've, you know, I've hit some bets, but I've lost a lot of bets doing this too. What is your take on live betting for those who are interested in it? And is it a trap? Or is it a useful tool?

Yeah, I don't think it's a trap. Ari is a live betting machine. That's all I do, man. I've been roped into it. The women's final four, I was roped into it and got blamed for something that was not my fault. So I'm all, I'm ready to hear this answer here. Yeah, no, I mean, it's like, honestly, it's like any other bet. It just comes down to the math of it.

And that's where having, I would argue almost even more importantly, in live betting to have a number that you trust that you're going off of. Because that's when you can find value. And there, there's really two strategies to live betting. And I, I wish I had the time and resources to really track this on a big scale. I just haven't yet. I'm not not quite there. But the two strategies would be, okay, we'll say my number projects a team to win by seven. They get down by 10 early in the game. So now your options are you can bet that team that was favored. Now they're maybe getting points or

it's you know, even money or whatever. Or you can say, well, this game's not like this game's just going to get away from them. I'm going to get away from them. I'm going to take a number that's worse than what the pregame line was because I think this is how the game's going. Those are two, the two strategies you can take. I tend to lean more towards I have this team favored by seven. They're down ten in the first quarter. I'm going to live bet them because I think over the course of four quarters, my number is going to be more accurate than than them

getting getting points, you know, on the live line. Yeah, the thing that's interesting, Andy, and I talked about this Tyler on Wednesday show about like how I wish I could just lay around all day. And like, just watch college football without having to worry about my job or podcasting and just like, I mean, I do scope the, I mean, I'm if on Saturdays, the live mechanism is open 24 hours a day. But I like it. If you like Tyler will stand out what like 10 to 15 plays a Saturday.

Is that a good number usually like, you know, 10 to 15 games that you like. I feel like in every single one of your games, for the most part of the vast majority of them, there is a point in that game where you can get a better line than the one that you gave. And I am addicted to that. I wish I could be completely alert and not driving, not walking into a stadium just in front of a computer, not bet any of the games before the game starts, and just wait for that moment to pounce and get a better number. Like, do you think if somebody does that, that that's a winning strategy to like take numbers that you trust and then try to wait them all out? Like, oh, there's a

pick six on the first possession of like, you know, the Penn State, Ohio State, you're basically saying I'll, yeah, I'll buy Penn State at this number, but I won't buy them at this number. Yeah. And if you wait four quarters, it might not be till the beginning of the fourth, but most of the time, you know, you're gonna be able to get into that game at a more valuable or attractive number than you would if you just did a pregame and like let it roll that way. But you have to be alert and ready.

Yeah, I agree with you. I've said the same thing. I wish I had just like the time and resources to just have people checking every live line, real time on a Saturday. I don't have the capacity to do that. So that's why I put in a lot of pregame. Plus, obviously, as Andy said, being on the content side, there's no content to be had in live betting because it's gone in the blink of an eye. So that's where the pregame stuff comes in as well.

So I try to do my best to put out the content that, you know, pregame in a number I believe in. But yeah, certainly, you're right. You probably can get a better line at some point, you know, especially like in football because of the way it's scored. Like a team gets down seven or ten points real quick, you know, just off of one or two fluke plays. So yeah, I'm with you. I wish I could just take the live line, but that's also very dangerous too, because I call this chasing the dragon

where I'm like, I'm convinced before the game that it's gonna go a certain way. This happened to me in the Texas Georgia game the first time they played. And I was convinced that Texas was going to win. And Texas got hammered in the first half as you know the arch manning game but I get sometimes will bet six different times throughout the course of a game or attractive numbers and Then I'll just be wrong and then lose all of them

And that that's a bad betting strategy and like you he gets mad at me for it, but like I think Tyler's right I think in that situation because this this is one where as someone who is more of a novice, I'm just thinking it through. If you're convinced that the 14 nothing lead a team took, let's say you have an underdog that took 14 nothing lead and now all of a sudden, the team that was favored by 12, the live line on them is now minus two.

Like I could see if you were convinced that was a flukey play. Tennessee Vandy is a good example of this producer river. So Vandy jumps on Tennessee. I think there's a kickoff return in that game. But Tennessee was the heavy favorite. And then Tennessee really did dominate from like middle of the first quarter on. But you, I think you just have to be convinced that it's fluky. You also to Andy can totally mess up and I yeah, and

then it rolls on you. You know when it rolled. Yeah, was the Vandy Alabama game the first time they were then they played it. I told I took I took a it's the tricky one because what did we say after that game? No, there was nothing fluky about this, but the assumption is advantage beating Alabama two quarters into the game that it's fluky. And it's just need to just kind of like come to the realization or the conclusion. Alabama is going to win. They'll figure it out eventually. And

then sometimes they just don't. But I think that was the one where I laid minus 600 because I'm like, there's no way they're gonna lose. And I just like, like lost my ass that day. Here's the next thing that I think is interesting because we talk about big time matchups on the show all the time, Tyler. Obviously everybody wants to bet and be a part of the big SEC game or the big game. Are nationally televised games or games

that are of most interest to the general public usually sharper in terms of the lines? In theory, the closing line is because there's gonna be so much more market liquidity on those games because so many more people are gonna bet them. The opening lines though, the opening lines are gonna be generally based on the odds makers like their algorithm like mine.

So, they may shade it a point or so based on their anticipated action, but for the most part, those opening lines are still gonna be relatively soft. know they may shade it a point or so based on their anticipated action, but. For the most part, those opening lines are still going to be relatively soft, but yeah, in theory the closing lines are going to be sharper than you know, then a Louisiana Monroe game for instance. Well, that I'm glad you mentioned Louisiana Monroe because. I was just talking about their problems with

Arkansas State and I looked at it probably was the Arkansas State game, which, by the way, was a seven point Arkansas State win last year. People feel like they know, so like if if they do follow one of these teams in a game that is not as heavily trafficked, I think people feel like they know something, but do they really like it? Is it it? Is the is the game that everybody is watching going to be that much sharper?

I mean. Like for instance, the the National Championship this year I I had Ohio State. I I had them winning by way more than what the line was. I forget now what the what the line was. Well forget now what the line was, what my projection was, but I know I was way higher on Ohio State than the market in that game. And so, I mean, it's not always the case. Again, you have to think of it though,

I think too often people get caught up in the result of a game or like, oh, well that game, the line wasn't sharp. So all big time games, the lines aren't that sharp. But you just have to think like if Ohio State and Notre Dame played 100 times, I think majority of the time, it's going to go closer to you know, what my what my number projects or what the line was, then what the actual outcome of

the game was, which was, you know, kind of a beat down. So there's going to be statistical variance in any game. So those those big time games are no different. Where do you when do you think oddsmakers or line makers are weak? Like when when can you spot like a weak spot? Yeah, I mean, kind of what we just talked about it open opening lines in general are gonna be softer and small conference, small team games

that they don't really care about because they're not gonna take much of a handle on it and that sharp bettors don't particularly, they're gonna be limited more on those games generally speaking. So I think that's where there's advantage for the general betting population to take advantage. But if it's say, I don't know, a regular season college baseball game and the Alabama baseball

coach is telling you he's about to scratch his picture, you probably shouldn't try to put $100,000 down on that. Yeah, a sportsbook in Cincinnati. You generally I'm so in this is probably wrapping up soon. But I have so many other questions. What are You generally come in against that. I'm so in, like, this is probably wrapping up soon, but I have so many other questions. What are your pet peeves in gambling? Yeah. So I actually coined the term bet peeves. Uh, I've posted that several times.

I, I, I'm, I'm pretty proud of that. I think that was pretty clever. Uh, I think, I think confirmation bias again, like we just talked about, when the result of a single game kind of makes people confirm what they thought going in, even if a team wins on a flukey play or something like that. Like I said at the beginning, I'm much more process-oriented than results because you're talking about any individual game, there's going to be a lot of variants there. So as long as your process is fine, I'm good with with what you do. I just I don't like to see the people that like pound their chest over a really fluky win when like everybody in the world knows it was fluky. Like don't don't do that. Um, overtime betting rules

really annoy me. I and I've in overtime, I've lost some in overtime. So I'm sure over the course of my betting career, it's evened out. But I hate losing an under to overtime because I just, or losing an underdog in overtime. I think all bets should be regulation unless otherwise noted. That just drives me crazy. I might be in the minority there, but that drives me nuts. And then, you know, just as a content creator, you know, doing my best to help people and giving out information, getting criticized based on the misunderstanding of what a winning better is. Professional betters aim to be 55 to 60%. That's the gold standard. If you're hitting between 55 and 60%, you are legitimately good at betting. But people will just go crazy if you have a cold streak, which are inevitable for everyone. Or know, or if you're sitting at 53%,

you know, a few weeks into the season, it's like, relax. You just don't understand the math of betting. It's really hard. So, well, let's talk about the math and truly special accomplishments. What's harder, Tyler? Getting all eight picks against the spread, correct or getting all eight picks against the spread, incorrect?

Harder, I, correct. I think that if you have a parlay and you're wrong. I want to know that that week where I got the whole graphic wrong, that that was special. That was a special week. That's special. That's special. It's special in a certain way. Yes, I know. It is kind of funny to think, though, like if you're just a casual gambler

who goes 30 percent, like just based on your notions, like why the math doesn't work out for you to go 70 percent sometimes. Like you just constantly lose. Like you would think that if you're bad at it, that you would just sometimes backwards pick the right thing seven out of 10 times. I don't know. It doesn't work that way. Yeah, that that is I mean, I'm sure over the I used to listen to a show and the guy would always say like, he would

compare basically saying 5050 is like a drunk baby flipping quarters. And like that's for most people. That's that's their betting strategy. They're just a drunk baby flipping quarters. I feel like most people are worse than 50-50 though. Like I know that's why they well But but here's here's here's the thing with that It's not that they are it's that everyone everyone is obsessed with parlays like especially lottery ticket parlays So like you're getting so screwed on the math with those parlays

Like that's why people lose more than they would if they would just straight bet. Like I, I pretty 99.9% exclusively straight bet, I'll occasionally do like a two teamer, where I've like worked the math out and I'm getting a favorable number advantage. But for the most part, I'm straight, straight bets, you know, I'll put in a 10 teamer for like $1 just to, you know, just for the hell of it. But like, that's by no means part of my betting strategy that I consider that just like

entertainment budget, not not my betting strategy. Yeah, my number one thing in the entire world when it comes to pet peeves is when people like complain about missing a parlay by a game. And I'm like, that's the entire that's the point of the parlay, that you've increased the degree of difficulty. Sometimes two and three times. That's the reason why the nails are so big,

because you're supposed to lose by one most of the time. And that's a pretty good, I mean, yeah. So, you know, it's great. What are we forgetting, Tyler? Did we forget anything? I don't know, but on that note though, it the coverage of betting kind of annoys me when someone does hit like a huge parlay and you see it like get tweeted out and put like, I feel like that gives the 20 year old that just learned about sports betting this week.

It's like, Oh, Mike, this is easy. I'm going to turn $5 into 315,000. Like that, it's just not, it's not gonna happen. But it's the same reason, Tyler, that when you're driving down, say I-10, and you see the one billboard that says, Travis Tritt's coming to play this casino, and the next billboard you see for the same casino,

and it's the dumpiest looking person you've ever seen in your life holding up a giant check in front of a slot machine. Like, if that person looked like a supermodel, they're not putting them in on the billboard. Yeah. They want you to think I could be that dumpy person in front of that slot machine. Also assuming too that when DraftKings has to pay out 315 grand on a $5 bet and then it gets plastered all over the internet, that's probably part of their like advertising budget. Yeah. Like probably they like that like every now and then it gets plastered all over the internet. That's probably part of their like advertising budget. Like, like

that. Probably they like that like every now and then of like right because they're expecting. Yeah, more than that worth of million worth of $5 parlay bets to come in and they'll never have to pay off. And also too, if you're a $5 parlay person for a four teamer, but you might win 160 or something, it's like, you're probably going to lose way more than you're going to win doing that. You might as well just bet $5 a game and see if you're good at it.

But exactly I do like parlays, but my my number one weakness is. And I do this all the time. I do it like just when I'm bored. But like if it like I did it with the Rockets game Warriors game the other night where it's like a team is down by eight at home with nine minutes left in the game and they're getting six to one to win like I like I like smashing the six to ones and trying to you know the comebacks all the time but again that's not that's not advice that's just my that's my toxic trait you do hit quite a few of those though I mean I always show you the ones that I win I never show you the losers like that's the that's the other thing too you see like look at this awesome winner I I have. Well show me the nine of let me see your whole log for the day. See I just catch Ari at various points during the day Tyler because I'm trying to you know talk about show stuff and so I get him at the highs and the lows and listen the lows are pretty rough. Yeah the lows are the lowest like when we are live um because like Tyler do like when he sends out play at a Mac

game back at the athletic. I don't remember which game it was, but it was it was a trim. It was a max in November, either a Tuesday or Wednesday night. And it was we were on live for playoff a playoff reaction. Yes, it was a Tuesday and I was the dumbest touchdown you've ever seen in your life and watching the color drain out the game. It was a great reaction. Yes, it was a Tuesday and it was the dumbest touchdown you've ever seen in

your life and watching the color drain out of Ares face as he realized what he was going to have to tell his wife about this Mac game. It was thrilling and depressing. I'm sure it was an under. I'm sure it was an under that I gave him

that he yelled at me about because he hates when I'm at I bet Mac under I always have to tell him because Ari Ari will get caught up in like the this this this never wins these these type of bets never went and I'm like Ari were 58% on these this year it's it's fine. You just remember the really bad ones that we've lost. No, I just like there was one year there was one year where we were playing Mac unders like three weeks in a row and like, yeah,

it was like we were getting and it was like the number was 61 and the final score was like 55 to 41. It's just like we're not even working close on these. Yeah. It was like we were getting and it was like the number was 61 and the final score was like 55 to 41. It's just like we're not even working close on these. Yeah. The problem with the problem with Mac unders or Mac overs is that when you're playing those in November on a Tuesday night, you don't know what a snowstorm is coming. Yeah. Yeah, that game was like there was like a pick six with a lateral in it to win the lose thing It was just an awful way to lose I am you know him and I over the course of a year if you're betting 20 games a day Which you know on Saturdays you are like you are exposed basically to every bad beat that occurs on a year So like I watch bad beat segments every week

And I feel like I'm at least a part of one of them and like I never remember winning in weird ways I always remember how I lose. Yeah. Yeah. That's how it goes. I think it's just a psychological effect. But yeah, I'm with you. I do, I mean, I can still remember

the Thursday night game a few years ago, ECU and somebody, and like the lights went out in the stadium, we were about to cash the bet. The lights went out in the stadium. They had like an intermission. And when they came back, the game completely changed and we lost the bet. The lights went out in the stadium. They had like an intermission. And when they came back, the game completely changed and we lost the bet. And I went to bed so mad.

Yeah. Well, I appreciate you walking us through this Tyler because it's very complicated. Hopefully we can have you back on during the season if you're available, just to like talk things through. But like, I think that like process and you know, for most people like gambling is just a form of entertainment, but the process aspect of it,

so many people just show up to books and download DraftKings and have no process. And that's what they're going to- If you're going to spend your money, educate yourself. Like that's the way I feel about it. Be as smart as you can with it because it is fun. It is for recreational purposes, but it's more fun if you win.

It is and I mean, for the money that that you would just throw away by just showing up and betting with no with nothing other than you think you thinking you know ball, you know, I sell my guides that that not just have my picks, but have all of my information like all of the everything I look at is in there. And I sell that for 60 bucks for the season. So you're better off spending 60 bucks for the season that at least have my numbers in front of you when you make those decisions. And you're going to come out way, way farther ahead

than you would probably on your own. If I do. Yeah. I do love that when you go on Vson, you wear a purple blazer sometimes the with a yellow undershirt like channeling that Nick Papageorgio thing. That's an alter ego that I wish I could be myself. Tyler's much better looking than Ethan Emory though. Let's be real here. I did not tap into that today. I am underdressed for you guys. I apologize. You're underdressed every day here. Don't worry. The gold medallion chain.

I put a dollar in. I got a car. I put a dollar in. I got a car. What about the night? I'm not going to you. It's the most underrated movie of all time. I love it. I love it. Have you watched Vegas vacation recently? Andy, it's been a while. It's been a while. It's it's not better than Christmas vacation, but it is. It is better than all probably better than European vacation, which is the greatest

because I love that. Yeah, there's no it's better than all those. It's better than Christmas. I don't care how there's no vacation movie better than Christmas vacation. Tyler, I'm sorry you got sucked into this. I agree. I agree. I would I would I would my power ratings on this would be Christmas. Then get out of here. What are you talking about? You're a Vegas guy. What are you talking about? Thanks so much, Tyler. I really appreciate it.

And thanks so much for consistently fielding my texts because it's very one-sided, our relationship. Just give me the plays, I'm hungry. But if you do want to, or you're interested in entailing him, let me tell you firsthand, he's made me a lot of money over the years. He's at T shoe index on X or Twitter or however you want to call it. And yeah, all of his information is there. And I know

this is a college football show, but the guy absolutely murders a WNBA if you're if you're kind of built like me. So in that time of the year is coming up. I told him like I am betting every WNBA game this year because he kills it. WNBA isBA is a very soft market and we do really well with that. Ooh, okay. Katelyn Clark, Angel Reese rivalry. Let's go. Let's Tyler. Thank you for helping make us less dumb.

I appreciate that and thank you guys for listening watching this week. We'll be back next week with another installment of this. We're going to help keep educating you on this market, because I do think this is a good off-season topic. So we've gone theoretical with Tyler. Colin Wilson from the Action Network joins us Monday, and we're going to go more practical with some of his picks for the coming season.

Yeah. Talk to you. Yeah.