Andy & Ari On3 - Best & Worst Case Scenarios | Checking in on Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama, Nebraska, & Tennessee

Episode Date: October 23, 2023

As week 8 is in the rearview, Week 9 is approaching, and we are checking in on many teams to lay out their best case and worst case scenarios. But first, we have to update our resume rankings and new years 6 bowl projections.Today's show is brought to you by PrizePicks, the easiest way to play daily fantasy. All first time users that deposit and use the promo code ANDY will receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100. If you deposit $100, PrizePicks will give you $100. If you deposit $50, PrizePicks will give you $50.0:00-1:24 Intro1:25-9:21 Resume Rankings9:22-16:07 CFP/NY6 Bowl Projections16:08-24:42 Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Alabama24:43-33:02 VolQuest's Austin Price on Tennessee33:03-41:14 JD PicKell on Ohio State41:15-50:55 JD PicKell on Penn State50:56-:1:02:10 HuskerOnline's Sean Callahan on Nebraska1:02:11-1:11:17 K-State Online's Derek Young on Kansas State1:11:18 Conclusion and Week 9 LinesWant to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and don't forget to subscribe!https://youtu.be/04ixYnSAryI

Welcome to Andy Staples on three and it is time for best case and worst case scenarios. That's right. We're going over what happened Saturday. Looking forward to what's going to happen over the next few weeks for a few select teams that could potentially compete for the national title or could compete for conference titles, there's a lot ahead of some of these teams. Some of the floors have been raised. Some of the ceilings have been lowered. We got a lot to talk about because there is a lot to chew on from what happened on Saturday. We are going to do best case, worst case for Penn State, for Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, Nebraska, and Kansas State. It's going to be very interesting. We'll have some very special guests to help us out with that. What is the absolute best possible outcome?

What's the worst it could get? Some of these teams, the worst ain't so bad. There's one in particular, though, the best doesn't feel as good as its fan base is going to want. I think we know who we're talking about here. I think they're the ones that didn't win the game in Columbus on Saturday. But before we get to that, it is Sunday, so we've got to do the resume ranking. We have a new number one in the resume rank, and that is your Ohio State Buckeyes. Beat Penn State. Already had that win at Notre Dame.

The Buckeyes have had some serious tests. They have passed them all. And beating Penn State, shorthanded on offense, even more impressive. So they're at number one. I have Michigan at number two. And I'll admit, this was a tough one because the idea of the resume ranking is you don't use any preseason hype. It's only based on the results from this year. And Michigan has not played anybody good this year yet.

But the thing is, the Wolverines just keep smashing every team in front of them. They crushed Michigan State on Saturday night. Shut them out. I don't know what else Michigan can do. You can only play the schedule that's in front of you, and they just annihilate everyone. So I'm done with it. I'm putting them at number two.

If they play Penn State and it's not, they don't look that great on November 11th, then we can adjust. But if they keep doing this to everybody, you just keep moving them up. And there's only one more place to move them. Number three, Oklahoma, that win against Texas. Still looking pretty good, but the Sooners had to survive. But you're going to see that is a common theme among this next group of teams. At some point, they've had to survive a clunker. Oklahoma's clunker was against UCF.

If they play like that against some of the teams down the stretch, they are going to lose one. And so they fortunately have the luxury of maybe dropping one and still being in the college football playoff race and still being the big 12 championship race. The team they beat in Dallas, Texas does not have that luxury, but we're not at Texas yet. Now we are at Florida state at number four, the Seminoles beat Duke. It was a very close game is 20 to 17 Duke for pretty much all of the third quarter. When Riley Leonard got knocked out, re-aggravating that ankle injury. that is when Florida State took over. And Florida State ended up running away with it, but they were challenged. They were challenged against

Boston College. They were challenged against Clemson, which now, by the way, has three ACC losses. It's not going to be a cakewalk for Florida State, but they understand that, and they're still sitting there with a zero in the loss column. Unlike North Carolina, the team that entered this past weekend undefeated, they lost to Virginia. So Florida State can look at that and say, you know what? We didn't play our best, but at least we did get that W. And the other team that can say that, number five, Washington. Let's be real here.

Washington was lucky to beat Arizona State. Very lucky. There was a play. It was originally called defensive holding. Washington player just grabbing an Arizona State player's jersey. For whatever reason, they picked up the flag. You can throw a conspiracy theory at it. I don't necessarily believe in officiating conspiracy theories for conferences that aren't going to exist next year. So I'd say they probably just

messed up, but Washington got off very easily because that could have resulted in an Arizona state score. Instead, Arizona state throws a pick six that allows Washington to take the lead. And that is how Washington really won the game. But you got to win your clunkers. And they did. Number six, I have Georgia. Georgia, not like Michigan, in that they've been inconsistent. They've had one game where they really turned on the Jets and crushed somebody. That was Kentucky. But they struggled with Auburn. Didn't even look great against Vanderbilt. Fell behind against South Carolina.

This is not a perfect Georgia team. Brock Bowers is injured right now. They can move up, though. The thing about Georgia is the next part of the schedule. We don't know that Florida is that good, but they are a 5-2 team right now. So if they beat Florida, if they beat Ole Miss, if they beat Missouri, Georgia's going to move way up, probably top three in the resume rankings, and they'll stay number one in the polls. That's the thing. Georgia's not going to get moved unless they almost lose or do lose in those polls.

Michigan's going to keep creeping up. Michigan's going to take more first place votes if they keep winning the way they're winning. But I wouldn't worry about Georgia in this ranking either because if they play to their potential, they'll move up very quickly into the top three. Number seven, Texas, they have the winning against Alabama, which is a big win that looks better and better every week.

But they had to escape Houston. That was not what that game should have been. Texas should have rolled in that game. They were rolling in that game and then let Houston back in it. Quinn Ewers got hurt. You saw Malik Murphy. This is going to be an interesting next few weeks for Texas. They're better than BYU.

I do realize BYU beat them the last time they played. That was 2013 and 2014. Those were the Taysom Hill times. The Kansas State game for Texas, though, could be very interesting on November 4th. We'll talk about that a little later with Derek Young of K-State Online. Because some of the stuff that's happened with the Wildcats over the last week or two make them a really intriguing opponent for Texas down the stretch. Number eight, Oregon.

The Ducks got back on track. Took them a little while. It was a slow start, but they rolled in the second half against Washington State. Bounced back from that Washington loss. Doesn't get any easier for them, though. They are going to Salt Lake City. Utah just beat USC in LA. Now Oregon and Utah in what amounts to an elimination game in the Pac-12 race.

Number nine, Alabama. We'll talk about the Tide later. I was at the Alabama-Tennessee game. I will tell you what the best case and worst case scenarios are for the Crimson Tide this year. Right now they're looking pretty good. Listen, they got to keep winning. They don't have a margin for error. They have to beat LSU probably to win the SEC West.

They're off this week. LSU's off this week. They play in Tuscaloosa on November 4th. We will see what happens. But Alabama has put itself in a position to still be in the mix for the national title. It doesn't feel like this is a team that could win the national title, but they could get better. And so this is a good spot. This is a striking distance kind of spot for Alabama. Number 10, Utah. The Utes went to Los Angeles.

They beat USC. The defense came up when it needed to. Bryson Barnes, walk-on quarterback, filling in for Cam Rising. Looks like he will be filling in the rest of the season for Cam Rising now that we know the full extent of the knee injury that Rising suffered in the Rose Bowl. And Barnes looks more and more comfortable in that offense as every week goes by.

Led the team on a drive to set up a game-winning walk-off field goal. Had a great run there at the end of the game. Utah can be a factor in this. Utah's not out of the national championship race, much less the Pac-12 race. They have one loss. It's in Corvallis to a good Oregon state team. Utah can take this over because they have to play Oregon and Washington.

So if they beat Oregon and Washington, Utah is playing for the PAC 12 title. We'll see what happens. Saturday is the next big elimination game in the PAC 12. Now, what does this all lead to? This leads to the college football playoff, the New Year's Six, the last year of the New Year's Six, and the last year of the four-team college football playoff. On Monday, we will imagine what the world would look like if they'd

been smart and gone to the 12-team playoff this year, but unfortunately, the Alliance screwed that up for everybody. This is what we get. We get a 14 playoff. We get the New Year's Six Bowls. Here are my projections as we stand coming out of this weekend. Number one, Georgia. Again, remember, Georgia has games coming up where they're going to be able to solidify that spot or they'll lose it because they lost one of the games. But if they keep winning, they'll solidify that spot at number one in the polls. Playoff committee, we'll see what they do. But by the time they meet, Michigan still will not have played Penn State. They're going to rank the teams a couple times before Michigan plays Penn State. I'm curious to see where they put Michigan, but it's probably Georgia one or Michigan two or Ohio State if Ohio State were to beat Michigan.

But SEC champ, Big Ten champ, basically. But I've got Georgia number one playing as number four, Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. Yeah, if you want to run back to Rose Bowl from a few years ago, if they would like to play a game that good again, please do. We'll take it. We will take that. I've got number two, Michigan,

versus number three, Florida State in the Rose Bowl. I think this would be a really fun game. I think Florida state against this Michigan team would be a great matchup. Michigan again, until I see them play Penn state and Ohio state, it's, it's really hard to judge how they would handle a group of athletes like Florida States, but Florida States receivers might be the only ones talented enough, except maybe LSU's receivers, but LSU's defense won't probably won't allow them to get in this. Might be the ones talented enough to challenge that Michigan secondary, make that Michigan secondary work. And Jordan Travis is mobile enough that even if the line can't protect him perfectly, he can squeeze some passes off of those guys. So I would, I would like to see that matchup. I think it'd be a lot of fun.

The orange bowl. Remember they have to have an ACC team and I have Florida state making the playoff. So that's why North Carolina is in there. We'll see if North Carolina winds up there. Cause if you can lose to Virginia, you can lose to anybody on your schedule. And Oh, by the way, Miami, don't forget about them. They did lose to North Carolina. They did lose to anybody on your schedule. And oh, by the way, Miami, don't forget about them. They did lose to North Carolina. They did lose to Georgia Tech, but they beat Clemson in double overtime on Saturday. Not done yet, and they still got to play Florida State.

We got North Carolina against Alabama in the Orange Bowl. The way that works is the next highest SEC team would have to go to the Orange Bowl. None of the other bowls have any contractual obligations, so it just sort of works out how they pick them. Probably going to see the highest ranked group of five champ go to the Fiesta. So we've got air force versus Oregon in the Fiesta right now. We'll see if air force winds up running the table in the mountain West. If they do, I think there'll be that highest ranked group of five champ. If they drop one, if they don't win, if it winds up being Fresno State or Wyoming,

there's also a chance that Tulane wins the American and winds up being that team that gets that bowl spot. And Tulane obviously did that last year, beating USC in the Cotton Bowl. The Cotton Bowl in this projection, Texas versus Ohio State. I had that last week. I'm good with that.

I would love to see that game. Let's make it happen. And in the Peach Bowl, Washington versus Penn State, which we have seen in a few different bowl games. This Washington offense against that Penn State defense, I would enjoy that. Going to need to see more from the Penn State offense. We'll talk about that in a few minutes with J.D. Piquel, who was at the Ohio State-Penn State game when we do best case, worst case for the Nittany Lions. But I would enjoy that defense matching up against Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington offense. We'll see what happens. But right now, we got to figure out what the best cases are, what the worst cases are. We're going to get to that right after I tell you about PrizePix. PrizePix, the most fun daily fantasy game on the planet.

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and they will match your first deposit up to $100. All right, it is time for best case and worst case scenarios. What is the absolute best possible outcome for your team? What is the worst possible outcome for your team? That got shaped a little better this weekend. I think we have a little better idea. So we're going to do it for quite a few teams. We will start with the game that I attended in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Let's start with the team that won the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama fell behind in the first half. Tennessee punches in a touchdown late in the half to go up 20 to seven. It is feeling like things are done for Alabama, that their chances to play in the half to go up 20 to seven. It is feeling like things are done for Alabama,

that their chances to play in the sec championship game could be slipping because if they lose to Tennessee, they could probably lose to LSU, probably lose somebody else down the stretch. Maybe, maybe they go to Auburn and lose the way Tennessee was playing the way Alabama was playing. It did not look like Alabama wanted to be involved in the SEC or national title races. And that completely flipped in the second half. Alabama came out on fire in the second half. Here's Nick Saban on what he said to the Tide. Obviously a pretty fun second half.

Really proud of our players. When I walked in at halftime after they scored right before the half, I said everybody here has got a choice, a choice to make. What do you want to accomplish? What do you want to do? Everybody's got to choose what they want. And we went out and scored in two plays in the second half in the first drive on offense and changed the momentum of the game

and played really well from that time on. And Tennessee's got a really good team, and I'm really proud of our players for the way they competed in the game and came back and the way they took care of business in the second half. Alabama just dominated that second half. The two-play drive to start, the defense played well, the strip sack that was recovered for a touchdown, everything was going right for them and they look in the second half like a team that can win the sec that can play for the national

title and that's the thing you get that a quarter at a time half at a time from this alabama team you don't get it all the time and i think that's that's frustrating for Alabama fans who are used to a lot more consistency from their team. But the thing about it is the reason this team seems capable of this is they genuinely seem to get along. Everybody seems to love each other. Here's Jalen Milrow, Alabama's quarterback, on how they reacted in this game. I think we had the same mindset the whole game. No matter what part of the game it was, we had the same mindset, and the mindset was win.

I think as a collective whole, we all approached it as a challenge going into the game, and it factored into how we approached every situation that took place, whether it was good, bad, or ugly. We all channeled in and figured out that we can win this thing, you know what I'm saying, so our mindset was all just to be on the same page and be successful. Were those first two plays to start the second half scripted and what made them work so well there? I don't think it was, it was just our point of attack,

just acknowledging the assignment that took place and just executing it to the best of our ability. Every win's big. So these guys don't feel as kind of rigid and militaristic as most Alabama football teams. They seem to have a little more personality, and they do genuinely seem to like one another. I think that probably helps them when they get in these adverse situations and helps them kind of play their way out of them.

It's very interesting hearing Nick Saban talk about this team because you can tell he is enjoying coaching this team, even though it is not what he would normally expect to have. It's not necessarily up to his standard in terms of consistency or dominance, but he seems to really like these guys. And you could tell after that game how much fun he was having. And he's cracking jokes afterward. Oh, I love it. You know, it's been great. The challenges are great. I enjoy coaching this team. That's not to say that they're taking years off of my life, but I'm a. They probably are because this team does make you nervous, but here's the deal. Everything is still in front of this Alabama every single thing. The best case scenario is a national championship.

It's easy to say that this team, playing the way it has, will never win a national championship. It's true. It will have to be better four quarters at a time to win a national championship. But it has the raw materials. It has the talent. It's just a matter of whether these guys can play well enough

for an extended enough period of time to make that work. What's the worst case scenario from Alabama? The worst case is they lose to LSU and they don't win the SEC West. And this is kind of an also ran type season, which still could wind up being a 10 and2 year, but it wouldn't satisfy anybody in Tuscaloosa. 10-2, 9-3 is not going to make anybody happy. But if they win the SEC West, if they go to the SEC Championship game, they're probably going to play Georgia. Then it's a one-game scenario to get into the college football playoff to possibly compete for the national title. This team, especially because we've seen Georgia being consistent to this team on the right day can pull that off. Nick Saban,

they're going to potentially make him tear his hair out, but they're also making him smile. It's a very interesting team. It's not, I would say not the kind of team most Alabama fans are used to enjoying, but I imagine if they take that part away, take being accustomed to their team, just steamrolling everybody. This particular group is a lot of fun. So best case for Alabama national championship, worst case, an unsatisfying 10 and two or nine and three, which most, most people would take, but not at Alabama. Next up the team, Alabama vanquished the Tennessee Vols. So I caught up with Austin Price from VolQuest after the game.

We talked about what happens next for Tennessee. Best case for Tennessee is they beat Kentucky, they beat Missouri, and they beat Georgia. That would be a huge season. That would put them at 10-2. Would they win the East? Maybe not. Probably not because Georgia would have to lose another one because Tennessee already has two losses in SEC play, but it would be a huge year. It would be considered probably forward progress for Josh Heupel's program. Anything else,

so losing to Georgia, being 9-3, I think that would be considered a little step back. I think losing another one of those that puts you at 8-4, I think that's probably the floor for this season is 8-4. And it is a step back from what they had. But Joe Milton, not as good of a quarterback as Hendon Hooker, and that really feels like the difference is that Hendon Hooker, you put him on this team, It's a little bit better with Joe Milton is just not. And so potentially Nico Yamame Alaba, when he comes of age and he's seasoned and is the starting

quarterback, maybe he's that guy that takes them the next step, but they still have a chance to do some special stuff this season they're playing Kentucky this week I don't I feel like Tennessee's a bad matchup for Kentucky as currently constituted it's Missouri I worry about a little more for Tennessee that's the one that I think could could handle Tennessee Georgia obviously is Georgia they're going to have to play their best game if they want to beat Georgia even at at Neyland Stadium. Even if that stadium is completely rocking, they're going to have to play great to beat Georgia because they are a bad style matchup. Georgia is a bad style matchup for Tennessee, but they can do it. So here is Austin talking Tennessee, best and worst case. Here with Austin Price of VolQuest.com.

Austin, Tennessee up at the half. Everything going for them. They score a touchdown late, and then it just all falls apart in the second half. Yeah, at halftime, to quote the great Denny Green, they had them right where they want them, and they let them off the hook. You know, I mean, like, you know, I mean, for Tennessee fans, this was a hard one to swallow. It's two quarters, second quarter at Florida, third quarter at Bama. this was a hard one to swallow. It's two quarters.

Second quarter at Florida, third quarter at Bama. Alabama made adjustments. Credit to them. They made plays in the second half, and Tennessee did not. And then Hypo going forward on fourth down on his side of the 50 twice. When Jackson Ross looked like Ray Guy out there at times tonight, probably not the best move. Well, and I know Tennessee fans.

I was watching Twitter. I was watching the message boards. Not happy about the offic Tennessee fans, I was watching Twitter, I was watching the message boards, not happy about the officiating. You asked Josh Heifel about that. Well, they shouldn't be. I mean, I asked him about it. I said, did you feel like it was one-sided? He just stared at me. It seemed like at points in the second half, your defenders were having to play two-hand touch, and they were allowed to play more of a combat out there a little bit. I mean, did you feel like that it was a bit one-sided? Next question, yeah.

Was that long enough silence? Yeah. And then said next question after about 10 to 12 seconds, and then said was that long enough silence for you? In other words, he's pissed. Yeah, I don't want to get fined, basically. Yeah, correct. He doesn't want to get fined.

I would have taken the fine. Like, it was blatant. Again, that's not why Tennessee lost. Alabama made some adjustments. They made plays. But to try to get the momentum back, it didn't help that Tennessee was having to play more than the 11 on the other side. But you know what? I mean, Tennessee's got to shake this off and get back to work

because they've got Kentucky next week. Kentucky is formidable. It's a game Tennessee normally wins. And if Tennessee can win it, they'll be 6-2 ahead in November. It's only happened once, and that was last year, since Phil Fulmer was fired in 2008. How does this team bounce back from this? You know, I don't know.

I mean, I think that they've got a group of resilient kids. The problem is I think the passing game is somewhat limited just because Joe's still not putting together a full game. He had 175 in the first half. He had a little over 50 in the second. And a lot of it was kind of garbage yards there at the end. They've got to figure out a way to run the football next week. They didn't run it a real successful night outside of Joe

with some design quarterback stuff. And if they can do that and play good defense again, they'll have a shot. Nick Saban said they changed things up. They'd done more odd front to start because they thought that was going to help them, but it turned out the even front stuff worked a lot better. It doesn't seem like Tennessee could adjust to that. No, again, Alabama made the adjustments. In the second half. They were able to get pressure on Joe Milton. Even when he was able to get passes away, he was affected, Andy. And obviously the scoop and

score after the strip sack, that's one thing. But Tennessee at that point was down seven. They were trying to make something happen, and they just couldn't ever get any kind of momentum in the second half at all. So where are we at on this Tennessee team right now? Is this about what you thought this team would be right here this part of the season? Yeah, I thought they'd go 9-3. I honestly thought they'd probably lose to Texas A&M at home. They beat A&M. I thought they'd win at Florida on the road.

They didn't. So you flip those two, I thought they'd be kind of right where they are. You know, it's not a great Tennessee team. They found a way to win some games. They've got to find a way to win next week. Again, being 6-2 heading into November, they play UConn, they'll be 7-2 going to Missouri. Another tough game.

Those Kentucky and Missouri games, that will be the games that really determine the season, whether they're 9-3 or 8-4 or 7-5, depending on kind of what they are in those type games. Is there a chance down the road that Hypel sprinkles in a little more Nico as they sort of move toward next season? You know, I don't think so unless they lose a game like next week. Like you lose next week, you're going into UConn, that's a perfect time, especially if

Tennessee struggles to throw it next week. That's the perfect time to make the move to Nico. It's kind of the Tyler Bray move, right? Yeah. Except you're a lot better record-wise than when Tyler Bray went in for Matt Sims. But, you know, I just don't think they're ready to go in that direction yet. But again, it's a game-by-game basis. So in terms of how this team is together, because it seems like after a loss like this, there's two things that can happen. You either come together, fall apart. How good is this coaching staff at making sure they can stay together?

Well, the real question, I think, is the offensive side. Because, you know, outside of Heupel and Glenn Ellerbee, there's a lot of inexperience on the offensive side. Jerry Mack has coached a long time. But, I mean, Kelsey Pope's in year two. Alec Abel in year one. Joey Hall has coached a long time, but it's his first year as a coordinator, so he's in a different role.

The defensive side, I don't really worry about it. I mean, it's just straight veterans on that side so again i think that you know leadership will be tested um anytime you lose a game like this especially the way you lost it um the defense probably feels like they were kind of left out there on an aisle when you go forward on you know your side of the 50 twice and don't get it either time that that's that's tough for the defense they felt like they were out there a whole lot tonight well and it's interesting because the defense is very good, has been good all season,

and does seem capable of creating game-changing plays. I wonder with an offensive-minded head coach, can he turn his thinking to say let the defense be – But he did last week. Exactly. Exactly. Because it's the first game they had won where Josh Heupel hadn't scored 30 points. That's right.

Or trailed it out. So can he grow as a head coach in that way? Because, you know, UCF, you didn't have to. You were just scoring on everybody. But in this league, you've got to have games like that where you've got to let your defense, if it's playing well, do what it does. Well, that and they've got to learn the short yardage stuff. That was something they were really good at last year with Carvin and Darnell Wright.

This year, it's a struggle bus on short yardage. It was against A&M. It was again tonight on those two fourths and ones. In this league, you've got to get a third and one or a fourth and one to extend the drive, to close out a game. And so, like, they've got to be better now. I don't know why they don't do the tush push. Joe's 6'5".

Oh, he's huge. But they don't have the under center stuff in the offense, right? Well, they do. They did a year ago. I can't imagine that they don't. I mean, they did a year ago when they would line up in and under center. That's true. But they don't have the under center stuff in the offense, right? Well, they do. They did a year ago. I can't imagine that they don't. I mean, they did a year ago when they would line up, hit an under center and hit it to the Princeton fan. You're right.

You're right. You know, I don't really understand. I guess I'm just – that's where – and I probably asked the hype on Monday. Like, you're not going under center at all. Why? Like, you know, is there a justification for it? Now, back to your question about the defense. Like, you know, the defense up front, really, really good.

Linebacker, I think they really still miss Keenan Peely to a degree. He's hoping to get back in the month of November. Maybe Missouri. He's a little bit ahead of schedule. We'll see. And then the back end, you know, I mean, I thought all – kind of all offseason, Jalen McCullough, I mean, like, he – you know, is he a liability?

Is he not? I mean, he's played solid this year. I mean, like, he really has. He and Wesley Walker. And then Kamal Haddon's playing some of his best football. Tennessee's got to get a figure out on the defensive side because they've got to be able to lean on that going forward. I think that's just the team they are. Yeah, and against Kentucky, you've got to stop the run.

Yep, and they're good at that. They can affect Devin Leary. I don't think there's a question about that. They can shut down the run. I mean, they do a nice job against the run. I mean, Tennessee's defensive front is really formidable. I think Kentucky coming off a bye, they're going to have to scheme some stuff up because

I think that what they do well is what Tennessee does well defensively, which means it could be a tougher night for Kentucky next week. It's a bad matchup kind of situation. Coming off a bye helps them, and it could. Tennessee's coming off a bye. It feels like a very crucial

stretch coming up for the Vols we'll have to see what happens thank you Austin you're welcome Andy that's Austin Price from VolQuest next up we head to the Big Ten the biggest game of the weekend with the highest stakes was obviously Ohio State and Penn State The Buckeyes come out on top. They had Marvin Harrison Jr. Penn State didn't. That feels like the biggest difference in that game, but Penn State's offense in general looked sluggish,

looked like they didn't have dynamic receivers who could separate. It was a big problem. Ohio State's offense was not what it could have been, but you also know they're missing Emeka Buka, they're missing Trav offense was not what it could have been, but you also know they're missing Emeka Ibuka, they're missing Travion Henderson, and it could get better. J.D. Piquel, host of the hard count, you know him, you love him from on three, he was at that game. We talked to him about Ohio State and Penn State and their best and worst case scenarios.

Joined by J.D. Piquel, the great from on three host of the hard count. J.D., you were in Columbus, Ohio. You watched Ohio State beat Penn State on Saturday. We're going to do best case and worst case for the Buckeyes and for the Nittany Lions. And we'll start with the victors. Well, okay, we probably shouldn't use that term for Ohio State, but we will start with the Buckeyes. That was, I thought, an impressive way to gut it out offensively against a very good defense while shorthanded.

Yeah, it was one of those things, too, where personnel on the line of scrimmage I kind of thought would favor Penn State more than it did. But even so, it was so vintage Big Ten where we're going back and forth and nobody can score. And then it was awesome for Ohio State just to be like, well, actually we have an Avenger playing wide receiver for us, so we're going to throw the ball to him and just kind of have that be how we win this football game. So, I mean, I think best case for Ohio State, it's funny to say

because it's not the Ohio State team that we have come to know over the past couple of years where they're scoring 40 a game and the quarterbacks and the Heisman Trophy conversation. But I think the best case scenario for Ohio State at this point in time, it's hard to say that it's not, at the very least, a national championship appearance. I think that's probably the best case scenario for Ohio State at this point in time, it's hard to say that it's not at the very least a national championship appearance. I think that's probably the best case. I probably need to see a little bit more to put them in the national championship winning category just yet.

And it's a small sample size. I still think the offense probably has to be a little more potent. But I think best case right now is a national title appearance, which would be saying something and I'm sure would be a nice hump to get over for Ryan Day and company. And I agree with you on Marvin Harrison Jr. I mean, that was the biggest difference in the game, was they had Marvin Harrison Jr. and Penn State didn't have any dynamic receivers who could get open

and get separation. Just how smooth he is, how much he affected. I think the biggest play of the game was one where he did not get thrown the ball it was kaylin king getting called for the hold which was a hold and it wipes the the scoop and score off the board and that's all marvin harrison's you because you're so scared of what he can do to you. And I was surprised they didn't show him a little more attention the majority of the game. Like when they got down near that high red, low red area, they gave him a little more attention over the top.

But for the most part, they just let those corners play with him. Like it was Kalen King and it was Johnny Dixon. And I didn't see him travel a ton in terms of, you know, having to be Kalen King, you're matched up with him, traveling wherever he goes. And they did an okay job. It's funny to say that looking at the box score, but, I mean, hat tip to Penn State being like, we're going to trust our guys on the island

and let them play. And, I mean, you can only do that so long until Marvin Harrison Jr. gets his. So, yeah, I mean, it was overall like he was and is the difference for Ohio State. And probably needs to be going forward as Kyle McCorkin needs to get his feet stable under him. So, you mentioned best case is a national title game appearance. And I do think the way everybody's playing this year, their best case probably is a national title, period. The question is, can they beat Michigan if, say, Travion Henderson's back, Emeka Abuka's back? It feels like that version of the offense has a better chance.

But it's so hard to say because Michigan just destroys everybody, but they haven't really played anybody good. And that's the thing I'm wondering, too. I think Urban Meyer made a really good point on Big Noon a couple of weeks ago. If you're the same team in November as you are in September, we've got problems. So everybody else, the metaphor for me is like everybody else is lifting heavy weight right now. Notre Dame's lifting the 45s playing Notre Dame. They're squatting heavy playing Penn State. Michigan's like trying to find a way

to get strong for November using like resistance bands during the year. Andy, like you get to November and it's just very, very difficult to simulate that kind of resistance. So I mean, it's just it's very, very difficult to simulate that kind of resistance. So, I mean, it's a low weight, high reps, I suppose, is what you would say. But I think I think you're exactly right. Like Michigan and Ohio State. Curious to see the trend right there, because that is obviously the question that defines success for both sides. It's crazy to say the worst case scenario is a is an 11 and one record. But it probably is.

And the problem with Ohio State, and Ryan Day, I think he says all the right things about this, where it's expected, you're expected to win every game, you're expected to beat your rival, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But the fact of the matter is, the worst case scenario for this team probably is 11-1, they've lost to Michigan for a third straight year, and everybody's really mad at Ryan Day, even though they're 11-1. They've lost to Michigan for a third straight year, and everybody's really mad at Ryan Day, even though they're 11-1. And who's to say they don't still find their way in the

college football playoff like they did last year? Like with how much chaos we had last year, it feels like we're setting up for potentially more chaos when it comes to November, November, December this year. So even if they do go 11- one, it would not be surprising if they found themselves in that final four. Yeah. And that's the thing. If they are getting healthy, too, because we don't exactly know how long it's going to take them to get healthy. But that's a situation where they will have had a month to get completely healthy, where if they have all their weapons, we saw it last year. They played much better against Georgia in the Peach Bowl than they played against Michigan in the regular season finale. So this is a team that can do that and can turn it on. But I am

sure everybody in Columbus would rather they just go ahead and beat Michigan in that little streak where it stands and go ahead into the Big Ten championship game. What do they have to do to be good enough to beat Michigan at the end of the year? Yeah, that's a, that's a tremendous question. It's sort of a cop-out answer because we've been saying it now for the last couple of weeks. It's why I picked them to lose Notre Dame and lose the Penn state. And then came in Sunday morning with a sheepish grin saying, well,

I guess I was wrong on Ohio state, but it really does feel like, I keep crying wolf here, but it really does feel like there has to be this evolution of an offense to be able to put pressure on a Michigan to score points because it feels like Michigan's taking that next step offensively or they're in the process of doing that with the way that J.J. McCarthy is trending so far this year. So I do think there will be a game at some point in time for Ohio State if they want to beat Ohio State if they want to

beat Michigan or if they want to win a national title even. I think they have to be potent offensively to the point where they can put the pressure on you to score points. We saw that yesterday, even though it was kind of a rock fight at the end of the game where they're just like, all right, get the ball to 18 and that's going to be how we live. If they get healthy and they can be potent, I think that could really be the difference maker yeah and i think with abuka it takes so much pressure off harrison the fact that harrison could do what he did against a defense like that without abuka on the field the one guy i thought was very helpful to him and impressive was kade stover made a couple tough catches, converted some third downs, and you've got to have that other target, or everyone will just kind of swarm the star.

It feels like Cade Stover gives them that other option, but again, if they have Travian Henderson they can hand off to, if they have Emeka Abuka, we're talking about a completely different scenario. It makes me very excited for that game. This is, you know, OhioMichigan has been a huge game the last, well, take 2020 out when they didn't play, but really since 2018, you have two wins on each side.

But man, this feels different. This feels like the one who wins this one may be the national champ and it feels like the degrees of separation to Andy are maybe a little bit less like approaching the game and I don't know that I mean Michigan went into Columbus last year and they were I mean I think they're like a touchdown dog maybe something like that when they played Ohio State but like I'm curious to see what that line is come game time this one because I mean it really is with the way Ohio State's trending and how good Michigan is right now.

We know about them. Like it is, it's going to be, it'll be a blockbuster. That's for sure. It will be amazing. Now we're going to talk about the other team on the field in Columbus, Penn State. I'm going to once again, apologize to everybody because I was the one who said all off season, Penn State's going to win the Big Ten. This is the year that they got the dudes that make them close enough to Ohio State

and to Michigan to do that no they do not have receivers who can separate against that type of competition it showed they could not do anything offensively the defense played about as well as you can expect, but they seem really limited offensively. J.D., the best case scenario for them, I'm wondering after watching, can we even say the best case is they beat Michigan at home, or do we think that's even a possibility anymore? I think that is still a possibility just by nature of it being in Happy Valley. Like we left Columbus yesterday and we had a fair amount of windshield time myself and our producer Trey Yannity. And we were just talking like, man, if that game's not in the shoe, I don't know if Penn State wins, but do we see like more competent offensive play? Do we see Drew Aller a little bit more settled down? Not even saying they win the football game,

just saying maybe, just maybe you have a different final score that's a little bit more respectable for the Penn State offense. And so with it being in State College, and with it being truly, I mean, the first real test for Michigan, like that'll be the first heavyweight they have to lift all season. I think that could kind of play an advantage for Penn State. Because I think we saw, especially in the early going even though nobody was really taking gash plays out of either side like you could tell hey Ohio State they've they've played somebody

Michigan they played Iowa and Iowa's a good defense but like I think there was a little bit of that oh whoa hey okay this is a different there's a different uh difficulty level here that we're playing at so I wonder how that factors in I think best case for me for, this is a different difficulty level here that we're playing at. So I wonder how that factors in. I think best case for me for Penn State is a college football playoff appearance, and I know that's probably asking for a lot to happen, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility, especially if things go their way and they have their best game at home against Michigan. Yeah, and what you'd need, obviously, in that scenario was you would need Michigan to then beat Ohio State,

Penn State win the tiebreaker. of these things are possible I think the hardest part of that is Penn State beating Michigan what can they do offensively what needs to improve other than the obvious receivers get separation but who who might be able to engineer those improvements between now and November 11th? Yeah, you know, I think some of it, too, goes back to, and this is, again, sort of the obvious answer. I mean, outside of the wide receiver position, you look at Drew Aller. Like, how much can he mature? How much does he learn from this game, you know, at Ohio State

in that kind of road atmosphere? I think the tight end play for Penn State, too. What we saw Cade Stover be for Ohio State yesterday, kind of making the middle of the field something that he kind of took over in a lot of different situations, like that jump ball over the middle where he just, I mean, little boy that, I think it was a Penn State safety or linebacker, I forget who it was, but just essentially made the middle of the field his deal.

If Penn State can have some guys step up weapon-wise at that position group and have them be a little bit more consistent and be an option for Drew Aller, you wonder if maybe that settles him down a little bit more. So there's probably a lot of small answers to equate to a big solution, would be my guess. But, I mean, I think at the end of the day, the thing that was missing yesterday was the run game for Penn State. And, I mean, we saw Ohio State said, if you're going to beat us, it's got to be Drew Aller.

And credit Ohio State holding them to less than 100 yards rushing and making them throw it 40 times a game. I mean, if they're able to run the football, I don't know if we have the same conversation around Drew Aller going like 18 for 43 or whatever it was. So kind of a multifaceted answer there for you, Andy, but outside of the obvious of the wide receiver stepping up, I think the run game, I think the tight ends being able to be a more viable option is where I look first. And I think if they run the ball, it's a very different game because the time of possession is so different. And that's the part they just have to be able to move people. I don't know if they're going to be able to move Michigan. Now let's talk worst case.

With Penn State, the worst case is probably one of those where if we told it to another fan base, they'd be like, well, that doesn't sound so bad. But if you tell it to the Penn State fan base, it's like, oh, God, this again? The worst case for Penn State probably is 10-2. You've lost to Ohio State. You got killed by Michigan. That would be the worst part because there's degrees of the Michigan game. You could win it, and things are still in front of you.

You can lose it in a competitive fashion, and you go, you know what? Okay, that's fine. That's something to build on. Drew Aller's back. 12-team playoff next year. But if you get blown out by Michigan at home and the offense still looks pedestrian, that's when you go, are we ever going to get off this plateau? Because even if the playoff expands, yeah, you're going to get in,

but you're probably going to get in going on the road, having to play somebody tough right away, that you're still not equipped to beat because you don't have a dynamic offense. Andy, I have sort of garnered a reputation a little bit. You know, I've talked about this, about maybe being your neighborhood hope dealer. That's right. First taste is free, baby. Enjoying a little bit of hopium now and then. I'm going to kind of go away from that right now.

I think the worst case for Penn State is 9-3. I was pulling up the schedule, and they play at Maryland. Classic look-ahead spot right before Michigan. Ohio State knows how that feels. It's tricky. It's a tricky spot. I mean, they're scoring points. We saw what Drew Aller was on the road.

Maybe College Park gets into it just a little bit. I mean, if we're talking worst-case scenario, you get the look ahead and you see maybe the first, like, real turnover-prone situation from Drew Aller, which we haven't seen yet. You wonder if that still is out there and if it shows up in that game. That's not the team you want to do it against. So a lot of factors would play into that. But I think 9-3 would, again, be – I mean, the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas,

where I'm coming from, like, they would love to be 9-3 today. They would sign on the dotted line right now if you showed that to them. But I think that's probably the worst case for Penn State, given the way the schedule shakes out. And their fans would consider that a complete disaster for this season with this roster, with this level of talent. And it would be an incredibly frustrating situation because as frustrated as Ohio State fans are

that they've lost to Michigan two years in a row, they realistically were one defensive stop away from playing for the national title last year. And they probably would have won it had they made it to that game. So they're not on the ledge the Penn State fans they're on the ledge but the problem is the drop is one foot it doesn't do anything to you because you're just sort of in the same place over and over and over again and I I realize the people like the Baylor fans the Florida fans all, all of those people are like, what are you guys complaining about?

But for the Penn State fans, it's like, we want to feel something. Just want to know what it feels like to be alive, you know? Just want to get out of this groundhog day. And you can't blame them. You can't blame them. Yeah, it's incredible. And you could just see the looks on everybody's faces as that game slipped away yesterday,

where you just feel for that group because you thought they were right there. And look, I am more guilty than anyone, I think. And sometimes you're just not there yet, and you have to get over the hump. So Penn State, watch out for Maryland. Figure it out against Michigan. Otherwise, the treadmill continues. Groundhog Day continues. You're punching Ned Ryerson in the face over and over and over again,

and I'm just sorry. J.D., thank you so much. Appreciate it, Andy. Thanks to J.D., and that Penn much. Appreciate it, Andy. Thanks to J.D. And that Penn State one is the toughest one to say and the toughest one, I think, for the fan base to stomach of these that we're going through this weekend because it just felt like this could be the year

that they had the kind of elite talent that would allow them to be competitive with Ohio State and Michigan. But nothing we saw on Saturday suggests they're going to be competitive with Michigan either, that they're going to be able to move the ball on them. Maybe they surprise us, but they're the one whose ceiling feels like it's lowered. Everybody else that we're talking about, it feels like their ceiling has risen. That includes another team in the Big Ten. I bet you forgot about Nebraska. If you're not a Nebraska fan, I bet you stopped thinking about Nebraska after they got shelled by Michigan,

and I understand that. But in Matt Rule's first season, the Huskers are actually in a pretty good spot. They went out and beat Illinois on a Friday night. On Saturday, they beat Northwestern 17-9. It was an ugly game. Nebraska is very limited offensively because of injuries, but they are 4-3 right now. The idea of a bowl-eligible Nebraska feels very possible, but there's actually even more that Nebraska could potentially do depending on just how mediocre

the rest of the Big Ten West wants to be. Sean Callahan of Husker Online, join me to break down all the possibilities for the Cornhuskers. We're joined now by Sean Callahan of Husker Online. Nebraska, 17-9 winner against Northwestern on Saturday. Nebraska now 4-3. And, Sean, we're doing best case and worst case scenarios.

And I was listening to Will Compton do an interview last week. And, you know, proud Cornhusker. And he was spinning out a scenario where Nebraska wins the Big Ten West. And I was like, ah, come on. But after what we saw yesterday, which was not pretty, but it wasn't when an Iowa losing, I can kind of see the path.

Yeah. You look at this West division right now, not one offense yesterday put up 400 yards of offense. think wisconsin was the high water mark just under 400 iowa almost won with what 127 yards of offense yesterday so two yards in the second half two i mean you look at the west it's it's a lot of teams with new coaches and and i think five teams that have had quarterback injuries or quarterback changes so it's just a disaster on offense a lot of just transitional teams right now and Nebraska is so limited right now but give Matt real credit he's embraced what this team is they've got a very good defense they've got pretty good special teams and they've got an offense that's lost four of its top five receivers and two of

its top three running backs and they have a change at quarterback right now. I mean, they're featuring a tight end that's had two major knee injuries, Thomas Fedoni. So it's about as limited of a unit as I've seen in my time covering Nebraska. And, you know, there's been some teams over the last 20-plus years that have struggled, but nothing like this in terms of what they have available. It's crazy because it clearly was not rules intent to play the same style as everybody else in the west it's just worked out that way because their defense is very good and has stayed relatively healthy compared to the offense yeah i think if this team

would have been at full strength you would make a case right now they they would win this west division if they had their full team i mean they have they had as good of receivers as anybody in the division and they had great running back depth but um yeah rule i i think and he said this when he came here he's like look when i went to baylor i adjusted i adapted to the big 12 when i was at temple i adapted to that league and he's not one of those coaches he He's not 2004 Bill Callahan trying to force the West Coast offense to Nebraska with Joe Daly at quarterback. He's really embraced kind of what they are. And Heiner Carver's going to have to carry a big load.

As a quarterback, he's going to have to carry it 15-plus times a game. That's probably not where he wants to be as an offense, but he's one of their best weapons right now. And losing Billy Kemp yesterday, Andy, that was humongous because he was their veteran number one receiver. We don't know how long he's out for. It sounds like it's not a end of the season type deal, but how many weeks will that potential MCL knee injury, what rule called after the game, keep them out for. Yeah and and that's the thing is is they're gonna have to stitch this all together but you look at the schedule they can beat purdue now

they can lose any of these games too so let's let's let's remember that but they can beat purdue the michigan state maryland thing you know those teams from the east they've probably if they want to win the west they probably got to win both of those. But interestingly enough, it's funny because we're talking pie in the sky here winning the West. If they beat Purdue and they split Michigan State and Maryland, they're bowl eligible. How long is Nebraska waiting for that? Yeah, you think about 2016, they went to Nashville. That was their last bowl trip. And I'll tell you what, I think a lot of Husker fans would kill for a trip to nashville or vegas for a bull game right now just after what you

think about the scott frost era that was the home run of coaching hires like this cannot fail they never went to a bull game once under scott frost they could have gone in 2020 the players actually voted not to go to the bull in 2020 after Scott Frost lobbied to play football in 2020 and took a lot of heat for it at that time. So yeah, a bowl game of any kind, if it's in Detroit or if it's in Vegas or Nashville or New York or wherever, I think Rutgers, by the way, would be a lock at this point, going to the pinstripe bowl, getting their sixth win. That just makes too much sense. But I think anyone here would just crave and they need these practices andy they haven't had those 15 bowl practices um since that 2016 season well and okay

we'll we'll do the worst case scenario i know nobody wants to hear that they can lose any of these games on their schedule because they're so limited on offense how do they keep that part from happening like because we want to you, you want to be your best. But if they can just hit in the middle, like we just said, get to six wins. How do they make sure they get to six wins? They got to run the ball effectively close to 200 yards in a game. And they can do that. By the way, Northwestern only blitzed twice yesterday.

So teams are not blitzing Nebraska anymore. They know Harburg is effective as a runner, so they're not going to let him have those long QB scramble runs because they're blitzing him because he can outrun your blitz. He's that fast. So the running game is going to be challenging. Also, Ethan Piper, one of their top offensive linemen, went out yesterday, possibly for the season.

Same play as Billy Kemp, right? Yeah, it was a two-for-one deal. Two of their top veteran guys went out on one play. Their center, Ben Scott, went out for three plays, came back in the game. So that offensive line is a big part of it. They played okay, but I just don't know how they're going to draw it up at receiver.

They're going to play three true freshmen and a walk-on from Omaha who was just put on scholarship in Alex Bullock. He's their number one right now. Wow. But they're doing it. They're winning. This is a winning streak. The old people will remember from Major League,

Lou Brown explaining what that means to people. At Nebraska, they haven't had many of those lately. It feels like Matt rule is starting to get the buy-in he wants the, the, you know, the temperament he wants, even if they don't have the personnel that they need right now. Yeah. You can sense the belief, the buy-in to Matt rule with his team. And you saw it in the locker room. I don't know if you saw the video, Andy. He did like a crowd surf, jumped on the team, and they left him in the air. And these guys love Coach Rule.

I mean, he's demanding. But these players want that. They're tired of losing here. When you have 90,000 people show up to your games every week and there's 50 media members at every availability and you have to keep talking about not winning, it gets old. And these players want to win. They want to be pushed by a coach that knows how to push them

and has a proven track record. And Matt Ruhle has really done that, and I think there's a buy-in right now. Yeah, and I go back to something. I talked to him in the spring, and he said he felt like Nebraska, it was more like year two at Baylor, year two at Temple. It wasn't as big of a teardown job as those jobs. And you thought, OK, are you sure about that, especially with the way the season started? But I think he may be right.

I think this could end on a very positive note. And then you build on that. Well, there were a lot of recruiting classes that were on this roster that were 25 ish rank type classes you know quality players they just weren't developed and they just weren't coached right they weren't played right matt rules figured out a way to get more out of some of these guys that just weren't contributing and and it's on the defensive side of the ball you're seeing a lot of these players like ty robinson nash hutmacher the nose tackle is playing at an all big 10 level whether it's like a second or third team but he had two and a half sacks on the nose

I mean they are getting a ton out of that defense much more than anybody could have projected and granted it is the big 10 west so they're not seeing great offenses but they made some big time plays in the game against Northwestern on Saturday. It's going to be fun to watch because if they get to six wins, that fan base is going to be deliriously happy. But if they can make a run, and this is my thing was with Iowa, if they were going to keep winning that way, and when he returned the punt, I thought, okay, well, that's it. They're just going to keep winning this way.

But Minnesota showed you they can be beaten. That defense and special teams doesn't always come through necessarily. And Nebraska did beat them last year with an interim staff. It feels like there's a chance. I don't want to get everybody too excited. And honestly, from a viewership standpoint, I don't know if I want to see Nebraska against Michigan or Ohio state in the big 10 championship game.

But can you imagine what that would be like? Yeah, I think, I mean, if you're being honest, you're like, yeah. All right.

If they got to seven, eight wins played well and didn't make it to Indy, that's probably the best case. Maybe the plane breaks down and be like, ah, you just go ahead and go to the playoff. We'll see you there. Just take,

just take it. Go. Yeah, exactly. Because I don't know if anybody in the West and it looked like Wisconsin, I mean, in Wisconsin could still play itself back in this thing, but they don't have the quarterback play right now. And Braylon Allen's shoulder. I mean, how much can he take?

He had a lot of carries yesterday, but it seems like he's battled a lot of bumps and bruises where they can only lean on him so much when, you know, he looks like he's the best offensive player in the West, but they can only give him so many carries a game. Yeah. And so Nebraska, the path is there. And it feels honestly like the worst case scenario is bowl eligibility, which I think people should feel pretty good about Sean Callahan. Thank you so much.

Hey, thank you very much, Andy. Appreciate it. Thank you to Sean Callahan. It's, it's crazy to think about the Nebraska in the big 10 championship game, but it is mathematically possible and not really outside the realm of real possibility that they're going to have to play pretty well.

They're going to have to overcome some,. They're going to have to overcome some limitations personnel-wise on offense because of injuries, but it's not the craziest idea. Not right now. Here's another potentially crazy scenario. When Kansas State lost to Missouri and then lost to Oklahoma state. The idea of them repeating his big 12 champions seemed completely foreign. Seemed incredibly crazy. It's not so crazy now against Texas tech. They bring in Avery Johnson, the five-star freshman quarterback played him a bunch. He scores five touchdowns. Then they go into TCU week. Not sure what they're going to do at QB. Chris Kleiman's pretty cagey about it. Does the, the or with Will Howard, Navery Johnson on the depth

chart. Well, we'll talk to Derek Young about what they did. He's from K-State online, the solution, an elegant one. And it led to a huge win against TCU and some very intriguing possibilities for the Wildcats going forward. Here's Derek. We welcome Derek Young of K-State Online, and Derek is trying to figure out the team he covers because when last Derek and I talked, Kansas State was trying to figure out what to do at quarterback. Avery Johnson had played a breakout game against Texas Tech, gotten K-State back in the win column.

So what were they going to do? Juggle Avery Johnson and Will Howard, make a decision. Derek, they started them both. Yeah, it seemed like a troll job by Chrisris climbing and colin klein because we were you know covering all week we probably did like what 10 different articles all these different shows talking about the quarterback situation who's going to start and they're like you know what we'll just start in both that'll be that'll be a good trivia question in a few years assuming avery johnson is who we think he's eventually going to be from a college football player his first start came as a wide receiver. So that's interesting in itself.

And obviously, they got the win. That's the most important thing for if you're Chris Kleinman, if you're Colin Klein, you went 41 to 3. So your defense is also kind of starting to figure it out. But in the end, one of my takeaways, too, was like, I know they probably don't care because the result is the result. But they kind of made it probably even more difficult on themselves because Will Howard seemed to be starting to figure it out a bit. And Avery Johnson still showed those flashes that show that he's going to be special.

Well, the thing is, as long as it works, it doesn't matter. It's one of those if it doesn't work and if the switching sort of bogs the offense down, that's when everybody's going to start complaining again. But they've got another game against Houston where Houston's coming off that crazy game against Texas. Before that, they played the Hail Mary game against West Virginia. So they've had an emotional roller coaster the last couple weeks. K-State has a chance to settle this down, win this game, and then potentially go into Austin with a chance to get pole position for a spot in the Big 12 title game if they could pull the upset. Yeah, and you don't have to squint too hard to see that kind of unfold either because, you know, unlike a lot of the games that Kansas State has played this year, they're probably getting Houston at the right time.

Like you can make an argument they got UCF at the wrong time, even though they won. Oklahoma State at the wrong time. Definitely Oklahoma State at the wrong time. Yeah, Texas Tech at the wrong time. Even TCU at the wrong time because people thought they maybe had figured it out by blowing out BYU by 30 points the week prior. But it definitely seems like Houston has probably spent everything that they had to expend in the last two games to salvage this season. And Kansas State, you know, an interesting

detail of the season, like, you know, fans are still kind of writhing your hands a little bit over how they lost to Oklahoma State and Missouri, two teams that look pretty good, by the way, and Kansas State had to play those two on the road. If you look at all these other five games, they beat UCF by about 20. They beat Texas Tech by about 20. They beat SEMO by 45. They beat Troy by 30, and they just beat TCU by about 40. So their wins are not even close at this point.

Every time they win, they're just completely destroying their opponent. So best case, worst case. The best case scenario for Kansas State is a repeat Big 12 championship, I think, because Texas looked very mortal. You saw Quinn Ewers get hurt. Malik Murphy comes in. Texas looked like a team that if K-State is playing its best, K-State can win that game.

Now, that is no guarantee that that's going to happen, but it certainly feels like as long as K-State handles its business against Houston, that Texas game is going to be huge. It's going to have quite the spotlight if K-State does handle their business against Houston because you're talking about also the storyline that'll never go away. It is the last year of Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12. Kansas State still has to exercise those Texas demons. I don't believe they have defeated the Longhorns since 2016. So that's something in itself. They have to go to Austin. Both of their losses are on the road. But like you said, Quinn Ewers, you know, perhaps we don't know what his availability will be for that game. Kansas State's actually had the fortune of playing a lot of backup quarterbacks this year. So maybe that continues as well. But, you know, with the Longhorns, you know, you always have to remember their backups are still pretty good. So at the end of the day, that's something to be concerned about if you're Kansas State. But this will be one of your biggest games you've played in the last – well, in the Chris Kleiman era.

And I believe that's the last team that he has not beat that's in the Big 12. Well, and the thing is last year, as good as K-State was, Texas did just kind of out-talent them, which you've kind of been waiting for Texas to be able to do that to teams, and now it seems like they're capable of it. But in this case, Kansas State seems to have found something special offensively, and you're right, Will Howard did look like he kind of figured some stuff out. But Avery Johnson, I go to that touchdown pass down the left sideline, I think it was to Treshawn Ward.

He dropped that thing in the bucket. I mean, anybody who thinks this guy is just a runner, there's more to it than that. Yeah, and that was actually to another true freshman that had a breakout game. That was to Jace Brown with four catches. Okay, that's what it was. Yeah, four catches, 88 yards to score, and they needed a vertical threat. So they're kind of uncovering know, uncovering some pieces there that's really unlocking their offense some more.

They have a second tight end that's starting to come on. And, of course, everyone knows about Ben Sinnott. All of a sudden, you know, fans always overreact to a positive and a negative too much, and then they were ready to burn the house down, so to speak, when they lost to Oklahoma State. But since then, they've found a lot of different ways to attack you as an offense. And there's a reason why Colin Klein was very much, you know, pulled in the Notre Dame direction in the offseason and nearly took that job.

He's thought to be one of the brilliant offensive minds. I thought, you know, when they defeated TCU 41-3, a lot of that was him just completely outcoaching, a coaching mismatch with the TCU defensive coordinator that people lauded last year in Joe Gillespie. So that was a nice game in between the game. Now the ceiling of potential is certainly higher with Avery Johnson, and you wonder if that can kind of maybe even the score a little bit with

Texas from a talent standpoint. You certainly would think so. But, you know, it almost seems before that game, like I don't know that this two-quarterback system is, at least in the form that they threw it out against the Frogs, I don't know how that's sustainable, especially in a tight game where I think you have to pick one guy and go with it. Yeah, you may have to go with the hot hand.

But it's interesting because I think if we had talked about this a few weeks ago, if we talked about the worst case scenario, the floor for Kansas State would have felt a lot lower. It feels fairly high right now. Eight and four feels like the absolute floor on this season, and I would be shocked if they weren't nine and three or better. Yeah, eight and four seems like the absolute floor because you have three winnable home games against Houston Baylor and Iowa State so um go undefeated at home and that gets you eight and four I think we're still left with the road game at Texas obviously that we've already discussed and that all-important maybe most sunflower showdown in about two decades I think that one will have eyeballs that hasn't had eyeballs in a long time. But in the back of my mind, though, I wonder what's going on with KU, too.

And I know that this isn't part of that, but that whole Jason Bean, Jalen Daniels thing at quarterback also seems pretty strange, but for them, maybe in a negative way. Well, maybe we'll just have a Sunflower Showdown where there's a new quarterback every single series for both teams. That would be tremendous. I don't think I've ever seen a game like that. No. And the funny thing is, is Kansas State's also almost doing the same kind of platoon at running back between DJ Giddens and Treshawn Ward.

I mean, Treshawn Ward has had two games now over 100 yards. And DJ Giddens has won with almost 300. And then again last night on Saturday, almost another 200. So they're deadly in the backfield, and the next time that TCU defends the running back in the passing game will be the first time because that was the real problem. Yeah, I imagine that Texas will probably do that better. Houston defended very well toward the end of that game against Texas,

so I don't think Kansas State's going to be able to get away with quite as much as they did. But they gave Doug Belk at Houston a lot to chew on with that film from TCU. So I can't wait to see what Colin Klein pulls out of the bag of tricks next. Derek, thank you so much. Yeah, absolutely. That's Derek Young from K-State Online. And I can't wait to watch these guys. They're a lot of fun.

And I do enjoy Colin Klein having a little fun with everybody by just playing both quarterbacks on the first play. That was brilliant. When we come back on Monday, it's going to be a different kind of Monday show. We're changing up the format for the week. We're changing up the schedule a little bit. We're going to move the pick show from Wednesday to Monday,

and we are going to move Dear Andy, the mailbag show from Monday to Wednesday. So basically we have swapped those. So our special guest picker will be Clark Brooks, our advanced analytics guide on three. He is awesome. Ball of energy. Cannot wait to see what he thinks about these games.

Some juicy, juicy opening lines. South Carolina, Texas A&M, a two-touchdown underdog. There's also a bunch of road favorites. Ohio State is a two-touchdown favorite at Wisconsin. Oregon is a five-and-a-half-point favorite at Utah. Tennessee is a three-and-a-half-point favorite at Kentucky. This is going to be a very, very interesting week. We'll be back on Monday.

Me and Clark, picking games against the spread. We'll talk to you then.