Andy & Ari On3 - Big Ten vs SEC: Do you agree with Georgia coach Kirby Smart’s theory? | Ask me anything, Mark Pope | Steve Palazzolo joins

Episode Date: May 6, 2026

As the Big Ten has won the last three CFP National Championships, questions have risen on the difference between the Big Ten and the SEC. Last week, on the Next Round, Kirby Smart discussed the true differentiating factors in the conferences. Do you agree with the Georgia head coach on the changes in college football? Watch here as Andy & Ari discuss the two biggest conferences in the sport.   (0:00) On Today’s Episode (0:56) Presenting Sponsor (2:45) Intro: Kirby Smart’s comments (14:58) Mississippi State vs Minnesota (18:18) Green Bloods in CFB (21:02) Ask Me Anything, Coach Pope (26:14) Marrying your daughter (27:54) Who Am I? (30:15) Who Am I - Answer (35:38) Previewing Steve (36:19) Steve Palazzolo joins (39:07) Notre Dame’s talent (46:56) Brendan Sorsby & Supplemental Draft (50:42) Josh Hoover at Indiana (52:51) Steve’s Projections (1:02:47) Missed Projections (1:06:48) Evaluating Talent (1:14:30) Closing out with Steve (1:15:34) Conclusion: See you tomorrow!   As Andy & Ari continue to dive into the Megaboard, a new term has been introduced into the guys' vocabulary: Green bloods.   Continuing in the Megaboard, Andy & Ari head to Big Blue Nation, where Kentucky basketball head coach Mark Pope held a Q&A online yesterday.   Next up, it's time for this week's edition of Who Am I? As Ari guessed Dexter Lawrence in the early hints of the game last week, it's Andy's turn to guess this week's iconic player.   Later, Steve Palazzolo from the 33rd team joins Andy & Ari to discuss some of his top players and teams ahead of the 2026 college football season. Do you think Steve is on to something with his projections?   Our show is also presented by BetMGM!   If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code CFB and you will get up to a $1500 First Bet Offer on your first wager with BetMGM! Here’s how it works:   1. Download the BetMGM app and sign-up using bonus code CFB. 2. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. 3. You will receive up to $1500 in bonus bets if your bet loses! Just make sure you use bonus code CFB when you sign up!   Make this college football season one for the history books. Make it legendary.   See BetMGM.com for Terms. 21+ only. This promotional offer is not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) . 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel   Join On3 today! https://www.on3.com/join   Watch our show on YouTube!    Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari Wasserman Producer: River Bailey   Interested in partnering with the show? Email [e-mail] Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On today's Annie Arion 3, do you agree with Kirby Smart's assessment of why the Big 10 is performing better at the top than the SEC? Plus, Kentucky coach Mark Pope wants your questions, Big Blue Nation. That's going to go well. Also, we talked to Steve Palazolo of the 33rd team and the check the mic podcast about the players in college football who are going to be huge prospects in the 2027 draft. What does that mean for their college teams? Also, Steve's got a product that he's working on that evaluates roster talent. It's very, very intriguing because the results that spat out before last season seemed shocking at the time, but looked really good by the end.

We'll talk to Steve about all of that on today's Andy and Arion 3, presented by Bet, NGM. We are presented by Bet, BEDMGM. The Lions and totals we use on this show come from BetMGM. If you want to sign up today, use the code CFB. That CFB is in college football. You can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets. If you're already signed up for BetMGM, they've got quite a few things for you this week, including the BetMGM hat trick jackpot.

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It is a megaboard Wednesday. That's right. The message boards at the On3 Network are burning up as usual. Well, usually when coach, is ask for fan questions. That's that's the bat signal. Plus, hey, we got a Who Am I today?

And our friend Steve Palazolo from the 33rd team that Check the Mike podcast joins us to talk. Who's going to blow up in college football this year that will be a big draft prospect next year? Ari, though, we got to start with a topic from the main board. The main board is the non-team-specific message boarded on three. and this is from Buck and Callie, an Ohio State fan who posts. It was interesting to hear Kirby Smart admit the Big Ten has the best coaches.

It just means more. Now, I'm not entirely sure Kirby Smart admitted the Big Ten had best coaches, but let us, Ari, listen to Kirby Smart, on with our friends Ryan Brown and Jim Dunaway from the next round live. This was last week. And Kirby gets asked the question that we're talking about a ton, And that is why is the Big Ten won three national ties in a row? What does the SEC have to do get back?

What's the difference? What has changed? Here's Kirby. The college football landscape has really, really changed. The Big Ten has won three straight championships. I mean, that's just crazy. The SEC dominated it for sure. Let me hear it.

Why? You really want my theory? I want to hear it because we just had more draft picks than them. That's right. Overall, not in the first. That was a flip in the first because they had more in the first than the SEC did. But why do you think? Okay, so here's my theory.

As a football coach, you're not going to like my theory. I'll go ahead and tell you, okay? I like all theories. I think back in the day when he is so setting you up to cut you down. He's going to bring up the paying the players. Everybody was paying players. I'm not saying like only Alabama was or only Georgia was everybody was paying players, but I think there was almost a handshake agreement like Alabama and Auburn,

to a certain extent we're going to let it go on because they knew each other were doing it. But by God, they weren't going to let Ohio State come down here and get a player. Or Georgia and Florida. They knew battling over South Georgia. Look, we're both cheating a little bit, but we're not going to let Michigan come get a player. Well, now it's a free game. Is there any validity to that?

Is that a bad theory? I don't know. I can't figure out what it is. I just think they have a more competitive conference, like the top of their conference. There's more good teams. It used to be, eh, Ohio State was good. Yeah. Michigan was really good.

McCormout, they had a great team. Indiana's good. Like, now they got Oregon. They got a draw. They have an ability to attract good players. Now, NIL has a factor, too, for sure. But so does Miami. I mean, so does Florida.

People have money. More people have money. That's right. So I think the talent is spread out thin. Where before in the SEC, it was a magnet to talent. That's right. The disparity was so great that it was like you couldn't mess it up. You'd win regardless.

And now it's like, okay, it's more even. It's just been three in a row. But it's crazy. Like when you were over here as a defensive coordinator, you would not have taken the Indiana job under any circumstances. Probably not. There is no way they would have brought you away from Tuscaloosa. You were waiting for a better job than that.

I agree with that. And now it's a national championship programs. It just shows you how quickly things can change in this place. That's true. It can change quick. But that doesn't explain why the big... No, I agree with you. It doesn't explain why the big team has been able to do that.

And that's just, you know, I have so much respect for them. I'm like, really better coaches than us. And that's what our coaches say. I think Joel Clatt says that. Yeah, I mean, people have said that. I don't think that's the case. Because I don't think they're taking, they're taking less talent in theory and doing more with it. Now, the other theory is, and this is what nobody likes to hear.

It's a lot of SEC coaches say this in my meetings. They say, they don't. don't have the grind we do. There's no way. They play three of their nine games are hard. Their bottom four games are not our bottom four games. I'm going to play at Startville and Vanderbilt's in my bottom four and I'm holding on to my butt. Yeah. To be able to play at noon on Saturday at Startville and playing a good team who beat Arizona State who goes and plays these other teams. So there is a theory that we're beating each other up and it's like the intensity and it wears you down. Yeah. I mean, Texas and Tennessee went to overtime in Starkville this year.

Texas is a pretty good team. And they both went to overtime. I'm sorry, Texas play Tennessee and Starville. No, no, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm following you. Yeah. So how would have been a fun game? From when you were.

That's my point. No, they're not being that. And I'm not going to say who says it all the time, but he's one of the SEC coaches. And I don't want to use it as a cop out, but it's like, dude, they're not even having to do their best plays. They're not even stressed during the week. And I'm like, well, I'm stressed no matter who I play. That's just how I'm wired. But their players get a mental relief.

And then it's like, boom, they get to go to the playoffs and crank it up. Okay. No, maybe he did it. Maybe he did say the Big Ten coaches were better than the SEC coaches, but that wasn't his greater point, Ari. What do you think about Kirby's greater point? The I'm stressed no matter who I play, the bottom of the SEC is far more challenging than the bottom of the Big Ten. What do you think about that? So the reason why the SEC, and I'm holding a pen right now, is not winning the championship is because Arkansas. is too good. Is that what I heard? That is what you heard. Okay. That's what, and I would argue that the 12th team playoff somewhat negates that argument because you have to win at least three very hard games in a row to win the championship, four if you, if you don't get a buy. And in Indiana's case, they had to play Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. So they played and won four extremely difficult games in a row to win the championship.

Also, the mental break aspect of it. Because, like, listen, all that is is a regurgitation of the number one most used comment on the Fine Bomb show. The grind is harder. You don't have to play an SEC schedule. Like, that's not like, that's just repeating that. But do you agree in the middle of it? Whether the grind is hard.

Is the grind harder in the SEC? I think that you would have to probably say yes, considering the fact that Vanderbilt won 10 games and they had more overall draft picks. I think the draft says that. But I think the thing Kirby said before that, which was his explanation of why the curve is flattened, everybody has some money.

Talent is spread more thin. Dude, I love that he was asked about cheating right out of the gate too. Like, are we just going to blow over that? He's like, yeah, you guys used to cheat together as like honor amongst thieves. And now they- Listen, Ryan Brown has been a bit of,

Birmingham for a long time. He's not mincing words. But if you say that, if I said that, oh my God. Yeah, it doesn't matter. Nobody cares now. The rules have changed. Last year I tweeted in the middle of the summer that everybody can pay players now as a way to illustrate how NIL has leveled the playing field. Alabama fan took that as me saying only Alabama cheated and it was a message board thread on our message board for like a week. And everybody's and look, So there were a big 10 teams that got in trouble too that maybe they're just worse at it. Like Ohio State got in trouble for all kinds of stuff. So outsider cannot insinuate that the SEC cheated before all this.

That's not. So it has to be an insider. But here's the thing that where it breaks down for me. Yeah. Is that even if the grind of the SEC schedule is more difficult, are they also not getting a lot of teams in? And then once they get the teams, because the grind should be preventing teams from making it. And it's not.

The grind is. It shouldn't have Alabama getting blown out by Indiana. Now, Georgia lost to an SEC team this year, but they lost to Notre Dame the year before. There's also a huge talking point in the college football playoff about whether the layoffs are too big. Are you telling me you don't get a mental break for a week before you start playing the most important games? Like, even if you are worn down in the regular season, how many SEC teams made the playoff last year? One, two, three, four, and how many big ten? One, two, three, right?

am I getting? So the SEC actually had more entrance into the tournament than the Big Ten, which the grind is supposed to stop from happening. The SEC had five, by the way. They had five. Who am I missing? Ole Miss, Georgia, A&M, Oklahoma, and Alabama, five. So they had two more than the Big Ten.

And then everybody has these extreme layovers. And Georgia hasn't played a first round game since the playoff has expanded the 12. So is Kirby saying that his team is too tired after six weeks off? I don't understand the thought process here because they don't get six weeks off because they've had to play in the SEC championship game both years. That's another argument for another day. But Andy, so here's the thing I don't know is, do you believe that the grind of the SEC schedule actually makes you weaker in January? Or is the grind of the SEC schedule stopping people from making it? Because neither of those things are true.

So I don't subscribe to that. But what I do subscribe to is the overall theory, which isn't really a theory anymore, just fact. And he said this in his own words, that the SEC used to be a magnet for talent. And the SEC no longer has a stranglehold on all the top tier talent the way that it did for 20 years. More of that talent has gone north as a result of NIL and more ability to income. I mean, SEC schools out of high school, but then may go somewhere else when they realize they don't hoard the talent anymore. they want to play and they can get paid more. Billy Glasscock, the GM at LSU, Wilson Alexander wrote a story for on three a few weeks ago and Billy Glasscock said, hey, when I'm talking to my third corner and we're trying to retain him, an ACC school is going to offer him more money than we can because he's going to start for them. I mean, I might, I don't know if it's too late and I've missed my moment, but am I right about this? Like I'm amused by the fact, here's the one thing. I want to give Kirby Smart credit because I do love coaches who talk ball and theories. I love hearing.

what their theories are on things, and I love that he's open to hearing them. And Kirby, Kirby's a lot like us. Like, you can tell Kirby, Kirby's reading a lot of same stuff we are. But he also said in that interview that he's not sure what it is. And I find that to be confusing because your second team used to be good enough to compete for an SEC championship and it no longer is. But he did say that in that interview. He said, why is he confused by what's going on right now? Well, they have to have an excuse for why they're not winning national titles. But here's the thing that I think is being lost in this whole thing, and this is a pro-SEC thought process. While I think the sport has spread out and the variability has changed and who can

win the title, they used to be five teams from the SEC and three from everywhere else in the country, that I don't think that the three in a row thing is a sign that the big 12 is going to win 12 of the next 13. I think that that is just a statistic that is kind of skewed by the fact that they had some very good teams the last few years. So just because, yeah, I also think the SEC hasn't fallen off to the point where it's not like the best teams in the SEC have fallen off the map completely. Like Georgia is insanely talented still. Texas was a drive away from playing for a championship last year.

Texas A&M is very talented. Alabama is very talented. So can both this has been really good? So can both things be true, Andy, that the Big Ten is much better than they used to be in the past, but they're probably not going to win ten in a row. Like, I don't want to, I want to acknowledge that there has been a shift. but I don't want to use a three in a row to pretend like the SECs is not relevant anymore. I doubt very seriously that it's going to be similar to the 2006 through 2013.

It won't be. I think that's probably a certainty that if you think that the Big Ten is going to win 18 to the next 23, I would probably push back at that. That would be results. You'd be getting too bogged down by recent results. Can I give you a game that's going to be fun to test all these theories? and I actually wish there was a whole series of these games so that we'd have real data points

and we could actually make some conclusions because this is one game and we'll get a real, you know, conclusion from it. But still, it'll be fun for talking about. Mississippi State at Minnesota, September 12th, week two. Yeah, I mean, that's the theory right there.

So you've got Minnesota, an eight regular season win, Big Ten team, and Mississippi State who has been at the bottom of the SEC but was significantly better last year than the year before. Like that is, that's the test. Like, according to Kirby, Mississippi State should go up to Minnesota and handle business.

Yeah. And I think that it's fair to make that assumption because you're using it based on fact. They had more draft picks than the Big Ten from top to bottom. And they have less programs. So, like, there is more, It's a fact. There was more top-tier talent.

I agree with him. I just, what I keep saying is they're right, right now about the grind. The Big Ten's grind is going to get tougher as that evens out, because it is just markets finding their level. It is players moving to places where they can play and get paid. But do you buy into the notion that when Oregon plays Washington, well, that's a terrible example.

Okay. Give a better example. Yeah, when Oregon plays Northwestern that Dan Lannning is just like, this is a joke of a week, let's unplug and not worry about it. Or like, maybe not to that extent, but do you think that he's not stressed that week? I think he's stressed. I don't know how much Purdue is stressing people.

Well, they were when Jeff Brom was there. I'm not sure how much they're stressing people. I'm not sure how much Rutgers is stressing people. Yeah. So I still don't, I still would push back at the notion that Nebraska doesn't. Nebraska stresses you, Minnesota stresses you, Iowa. Well, Iowa is a different league. There's more Drek in the Big Ten in the current moment.

Like Rutgers, UCLA, although I think that that's changing. If you listen to that's changing, we just talk about that yesterday. I think, you know, typically hasn't been as bad. Westers are tougher out than they, yeah, under David Braun, they've been a pretty tough out. Like the last couple years of Fitzgerald, they were not that good. But they've been a tough out since David Braun took the job. And I also think that 20 years of Ohio State being the only team that resembles top tier SEC teams and beating the crap out of all the lower tier teams also had an impact on the perception of it too. Yeah.

But like, yes, sport has changed, but it's not like it's lopsided in the opposite direction toward the Big Ten. I just think that people who have been used to the SEC being unequivocally the best for 20 years are having a hard time catching up to the curve, including the coaches that coach in the league. So very fascinating discussion, but I do think that everybody's basically. on board with. Yeah, there's more good players in the North than they're probably one in the past. And it's also the West because they have USC and Oregon and teams that weren't in that conference before. So yeah. But good, good. Kirby's a good sport. He is a very good sport about that. And I appreciate because a lot of the coaches would not engage in that discussion at all or would only engage in in a disingenuous way. And I think Kirby like he's he's coming at it like, let's have a

debate because I love he just goes around what's your theory that's awesome I would die for him to ask me what my theory is let us move to the sooner scoop message board I we're going to hit this one very briefly but only because I want to give full credit to the person who came up with it and then I want to steal this term forever so sooner scoop has a thread started by a poster name godhammer 50 million dollar rosters question mark And it is Kyle Whittingham talking to our Chris Lowe at On 3 about schools potentially having $50 million rosters, not this coming season but next season, which I think is probably true. They're going over $40 million this season. So the idea is $50 million next season.

12 to 15 schools was Kyle Whittingham's estimation for that. DB 576 down in the comments in the chat. after long-timer in the chat says he's referring to Texas, Texas, A&M, Miami, Ohio State, USC, Georgia, LSU, Texas Tech, Alabama, Michigan, Penn State, Ole Miss, and UCLA, probably. Whittingham should know there if he speaks, he's budding heads with these schools for elite talent. And DB 576 says, green bloods. Green or stealing that term.

Green blood is amazing. There's green bloods for people who spend money. Greenbloods are the people who spend money. money is no object. We're going to spend what we need to spend. So blue blood, you have to win over time. To be a green blood, you just need to spend the money. So Texas Tech is a green blood.

Oregon is a green blood. I'd rather be a green blood than a blue blood right now. Of course. But also, a lot of the blue bloods are green bloods. So there's just kind of like a lot of mixture between those two. Yeah, the blue bloods are old money. It's an old money, new money thing. And they actually, like, it's funny because the discourse,

when we talk about Texas Tech or we talk about Oregon versus when we talk about Ohio State and we talk about Texas is it's okay for those old money people to do this stuff but there's somehow some problem with the new money people doing it. It's just kind of funny that like we're all discovering that the green blood, blue blood crossovers

have been doing this since the beginning of time. They've just invested their money differently now. But it's also the same as like the old money, new money argument in real life in every aspect of life. That's just how it all works. I would put Miami's a greenblood too. I don't think they had them on the list, but Miami's definitely a green blood.

So we're stealing that term. DB 576 from Sooner's Group, we love you, and we're going to make sure we give you credit whenever we can, but we are absolutely stealing that term, and Ari, I sense a column by one of us. Yeah, green blood. Yeah, love it. I sense a column.

All right. Next up on the mega board, this is one when I saw the tweet. I was like, I cannot wait. to go to KSR and read what the Kentucky fans think about this. So our friend Nick Rouch from KSR posted Mark Pope's tweet from Cinco to Mayo, BVN, I Want to Talk, drop your questions in the comments, I'll spend the next couple of days answering them.

And naturally, Jacob from KSR, the first post in response on the message board, is the gift from Dodgeball. It's a bold strategy, cotton. Let's see if it pays off. Can you wear a body cam during recruiting visits? It's got me rolling. It's the first one. It's so good.

Here's Mark Pope. Big Blue Nation. It has been a busy six weeks, and I've missed you. It's time to talk some hoops. So drop a question below, and I'll hit you back. Go cats. I cannot believe anybody approved this. This would be like,

this would be like Hugh Freeze doing this in the middle of football season last year. Do you think that somebody will be reading all the responses and then we'll only select the nice questions and then he'll tell them right. He's not going to read all that crap, is he? I don't know, but like I stand in the paint. I read my mentions. Now I'm not nearly as famous or as important as he is. But, you know, I think that part of why you have to. He doesn't have to.

I know. Also, I think it's also good for the soul if you ever. There's nothing he can say or do that will matter if they do not win a lot of games and go on a deep NCAA tournament. None of that will matter. So Kentucky fans obviously upset about his recruiting this offseason. That's the, can you please wear a body cam during recruiting visits that Pope by 90? That was one of the first responses. Here's a, here's a more reasoned version.

of that, a less jokey one, from high school top recruits. What changes are being made to recruiting? You have to see a problem when 14 top 20 kids visit and you land none. What's the change? Like, that's the question that Big Blue Nation does want answered. I'd be shocked if he actually answered that. I mean, is this like just an idea for a podcast? Like, let's pretend every single coach does this.

What would be our number one question to every one of them? Oh, my God, Ari, that is brilliant. That is, okay. We're doing that next week. Let me write it down on my posting notes. We're going to forget, but we're doing that next week. Yes, the one question you would ask each coach, if they pull to Mark Pope, what's the one question? What's the Ask Me Anything question?

And yes, absolutely. And feel free to hit us up on social media or on the email, Andy Stapleson3 at gmail.com, Ari.com, wasserment, and on 3.com. feel free to hit us up with the question you would ask any coach. We're thinking football here. Obviously, Mark Pope is one of the more controversial coaches right now just because of the way his fan base feels about him. But we'll take any football coach question.

But basketball coach questions too. I'd be fascinated to hear what you got. Here's one from Greg Ferris. I wonder if this is one they would have him answer because this is an honest, earnest question. Coach, many fans feel this connection. from the program right now, what would you say

to longtime supporters who believe Kentucky has lost some of the edge consistency in player development that once made as the standard and do you still see high school recruiting in multi-year and then he continues in the next one

and multi-year development as part of the blueprint? That's a very legitimate question asked in a respectful way and I would frankly love to hear Mark Pope's answer for that. I mean, I think that like every coach should do this bi-annually

if not quarterly. and like you should just have like a earnings meeting for every program in America where fans can ask questions to the CEO. Yeah, so it's an earnings call for a publicly traded company essentially. If they had a bad quarter, the CEO has to account for why they had a bad quarter. What are the projections? What are the, you know, all the things that you're like, what's your philosophy on this, that. I mean, I think it's interesting. It's like one question you could ask every coach if you had a chance.

I mean, we could do that five shows and do it one conference at a time. So, but there's a lot of meat on that bone, I think. Oh, yeah. Here we go. Hey, coach. Thanks for doing this. I'm a season ticket holder. They've been in my family for generations.

I got married at Ruperina and have paid the deposit for my daughter to do the same. Having said all that, how does it feel knowing you're inferior to Stephen Pearl? Thanks. That's Pablo Escobarner, noted SEC troll. So I don't, I don't think he's actually a season ticket holder. And he never got married in Raperina or his daughter. A hell of a lead-up to the question. Yeah.

I can think of places that my daughter might want to get married in a basketball arena is probably not going to be one of them. I don't think so. I was so happy my daughter came to me and said, would it be all right if I got married on the beach with like four people around? I'm like, oh, God, please, please, please. Those are good early returns, but she's got a lot of growing up to do before she makes that decision. I know, I know. I'm like, I'm just going to record this and remind you this when you actually do find someone you're going to marry. I don't know what your bedtime ritual was with your children when they were really young,

but ours is we let Liv come, like, lay in the bed with us for 10 minutes and watch a Disney movie before we go. Oh, hell no. We're like, go to sleep. Oh, we're still in the rocking phase. So she comes, she gets out of the shower. We brush her hair, brush her teeth, put her pajamas on, and she can come lay between us. And we'll watch a Disney show. She'll cuddle or whatever.

And then one of us will take her into the room. Britt was at work dinner last week and Liv was sitting on the edge of the bed. and I was watching like a Disney movie. I don't remember which one it was. And she like looked back at me and she goes, Daddy. And I was like, yes. And I was like, she goes, I have a boyfriend. And she's four years old.

So I kissed him on the lips, by the way. Oh, God. I don't know if that's too soon. But like we're starting to get into. I think so probably. I'm a little worried for you, Ari. I'm a little worried. Turning five soon.

So yeah, I'm learning a lot about how the brain develops. and girls are mean to each other at age four. I don't know if you know that. They're even meaner at 12 and 13. I know, but like the things that you think when they're 12 and 13 are already happening at four, it's bizarre. Like you can't be my best friend because she's my best friend and all this stuff.

It's like insane what these girls are paying to each other. It just gets more sophisticated. I know. All right, Ari. I'm scared for something. You should be. Because we've got a who am I. Before we talk to Steve Palazolo from the 33rd team,

we're going to do a who am I. You nailed. Dexter Lawrence, I believe on clue number four or maybe clue number five last week, it was a very impressive performance by you. Now I have to try to strike back. Who am I? Andy, you're an incredibly gifted person at recalling things and it makes this incredibly difficult, but River and I workshoped this and I'm ready to get into it. Are you ready? I think so. I hope so. Listen, I did not perform well, Blake Bordels a couple of weeks ago. So lock in, lock in.

I'm locking in. All right, let's go. Number one, his career record as a head coach in football is one and two. Oh, my God. I don't know. So now I got to figure out if it's a coach or is this a player who coached a little bit? Okay, good. Next.

He played for his father in high school. This could be anybody. Go ahead. He was a five-star record. and the number one receiver in the 2004 recruiting class. Oh, God, number one receiver in 2004. Oh, I should know this. No, keep going, keep going.

Okay. He had 1,343 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in college. Receiving. Hmm. Which means he didn't have like three hugely productive seasons. That's, that's interesting. And then he coached two? Oh, God.

Okay. Keep going. He totaled 900 yards returning in the punt game and still holds a Big Ten record for six punt return touchdowns. Keep going. Number six, he is the head coach of the Columbus Aviators. Columbus Aviate. All right. So, I did Ohio State recruit?

Oh. Power turn, right? Ted Ginn Jr. Nailed it. Okay. Oh, wow. So the first clue. A Glenville High tar blotter. Yes. So the next question is he went to Cleveland Glenville High School. Number eight is he played for seven NFL franchises during his 14-year pro career, starting with the dolphins in 2007 and finishing with the Chicago Bears in 2020. Number nine is when you absolutely would have gotten this,

but you would have gotten it earlier, which is he returned the opening kickoff of the BCS National Championship game in the 2006 NFL college football season. And then number 10 is he famously lined up as a tight end in 2006 Ohio State Michigan game and scored on a dramatic touchdown over the top to lift the Buckeyes in what was then called

the game of the century. River guy, Ted Giff was electrifying in college. Electrifying. River helped remind me of the generational break between us and him because our early careers in late childhoods coincided with this era and River like played this game with some of the other on three producers at a Mexican restaurant last night and nobody got it. Yep.

What? None of us got it. Yeah. We have to educate the youth. It was right at the cutoff of like when our memory started. Yeah. But wow. I did play a little dirty there, Andy, because that first clue definitely threw you off.

Oh, yeah, yeah, because I was thinking it was somebody older than that. But you said 2004 recruit. So, like, I did, and I, I got to be honest, I did not realize Ted Ginn was coaching in arena ball now. Yes. Okay. He's one and two. He's very early into his tenure. But I thought if I threw it because, like, this would have been too easy for you if I didn't throw you off.

Yeah. No, this is, I thought the way you set up the clues were great. Do you have other questions for, so when we put the, the social video together? Oh, you did? You already did. I read them all out already. Yeah, we got it. Okay. Perfect. You able to do it. But, you know, he played for his father, Ted Gins, Sr., who was a coaching legend in the state of Ohio and they had an Ohio State pipeline. The five-star recruit thing back in the very early stages of rivals, you know, it was a little bit different. Yeah, I mean, rivals had just started getting out star rankings in the early 2000. But the thing that is that I knew would be difficult for you. And the reason why I put them in this order is that 1943 receiving yards for an entire career back then, I mean, it's probably much better than that is now,

but it doesn't do justice for what his college career actually was. Yeah, that's the thing. Like, because that threw me off too, because I did not realize that he was not as just hugely productive as a receiver. Obviously, the return game, he was incredible, as you pointed out with your Big Ten record six punt return for touchdowns. You might like watch a 10-minute highlight tape of him, and a lot of those highlights are in the return game.

I just called up the 2004 rivals player rankings. Number one, Adrian Peterson, who could have skipped from high school to the NFL with no problem. Like, he didn't really need to play college football. Number two, Willie Williams from Carroll City in Miami. If you do not know who Willie Williams is, I want you to Google that name. That was one of the wildest recruiting stories in the history of recruiting. number three, Keith Rivers, the greatest player at the time in Lake Mary High School football history. At the time, I might have been in the top 15.

It's changed since then. And also, Noah Grubbs, the current freshman at Notre Dame, is now the current greatest football player in Lake Mary High School history after leading the team to a state championship last year. But fascinating to look through this. Oh, Rhett Beaumar was number eight on this list. Yeah. Like an Oklahoma quarterback. Yeah. Okay.

I do get a little bit wary about older recruiting rankings because, you know, rivals was able to adopt its own archives. So it's probably gotten cleaner now. But in like the past before on three acquired rivals, they had to like remanufacture or reorganize the historical database. But, you know,

you got to remember guys. Like he was a five star player in the fourth year that online recruiting rankings even existed. So, Man, this is like a trip down in memory lane. You got Peewey Carter from Palm Bay High in Melbourne. It was a track star involved in a, I believe Peeway Carter was involved. He played at LSU.

So, man, that was a good one. That was a good one. I love it. And you're right in my wheelhouse there because that's, I was a, you know, beat writer covering Florida at the time and paying a lot of attention to recruiting. I think most people. would have gotten clue nine, which was he returned the opening kickoff. Yes, that would have been the easiest one. And you were at that game, so I knew there was no way we were going to get through

without you knowing that. But putting the clues in the right order was the difficult part. But yeah, that was fun. And what was it? Would you get it in five? Six, I think. Six. So you still have to get it in six.

Five. So. But I'm, I'm going to. I'm going to make week. I'm a stump you next week. You probably will. I'm an idiot. Now, this next guy.

I don't think we could ever stump. I think this guy would get every single question, every who am I right, probably by a clue five or six. Steve Palisolo worked for a long time, now doing his thing at the 33rd team, is the Check the Mike podcast. He's also working on an evaluation service that he's working with NFL teams. He's working with college teams. It's utterly fascinating. We're talking to him about guys that are going into the college football season. year that the NFL is looking at. We're also going to talk to him about that service that he's

working on because it is really, really interesting. Here is Steve Palazola. We are joined now by Steve Palazolo of the 33rd team. Check the mic is the show with Sam Monson. Steve, as he points out, former professional thrower of objects, but that was as a pitcher. How did you wind up in the football evaluation game after being a very hard throwing pitcher? Long story. But Yeah, I was pitching in the minors, but football is always my passion. And I was using pro football focus back at the time, you know, PFF as a fan and was about to retire as a minor league pitcher looking for my next life. And I emailed them to see if they needed help in their data collection process. They said, yes, I was pretty good at it, did it part time for a year while I was still playing.

And then retired from baseball and transition to a full-time role with PFF and was employee number six there. And then rest is history. We've been doing that for the last 15 years or so. You know, I know this is going to be, we're going to talk a lot about football, but can I ask just a random question? Of course. I just like have to know. What was life in minor league baseball like and what is like one of the biggest misconceptions of it?

And how would you say your life was during it? I mean, I don't know if it's a misconception, but because there's more written about it now, but we didn't make any money. If you got, once you get called up to the majors, you know, you're making real people money, as I like to say. but the most I made was like $2,800 a month. And that was at my peak in AAA. I was in AAA making $2,000 to $2,800 a month for the five months that you played.

I think a lot of the stories about, you know, the bus trips and everything, like the fact that you play 154 games and 164 days, you get 10 days off during the season in a minor league year. It's just, it's a grind. And it's so different from football where it's like this buildup to one game, baseball is this everyday grind of consistency. if you're like me and you have random games where you give up five runs, you're just like, as a reliever, you know, it's like, oh, I just pitch two thirds of an inning and give up a five spot.

There goes my season. Maybe I'm never getting called up. So I think it's that, like the mental grind is a challenge. And I think that's what separates baseball from some of these other sports. And when you're on the team, do you guys actually have team goals or does everybody just worried about getting called up? No, everybody cares about themselves. It really, it's crazy.

I mean, it's just such an individual game. Like, I didn't care if my double A or AAA team. won games. I didn't. Nobody did. You cared about your own performance. You know, like if I threw three scoreless and we lost, I cared about that. Like, hey, I'm going to get, I'm going to go to AAA and maybe I'll get called up this year. I mean, that's just the reality of it. It's cool when you win.

I played on some independent teams where we cared about winning and it was fun, but like, yeah, you cared about yourself and moving up and, you know, it's an individual type of sport. Not a lot of people admit that, but it's just the truth in baseball. Thanks for letting me do that, Andy. Go ahead. Well, let's get back to the ultimate

team game because if you, you know, one of the 11 messes up, somebody might get decapitated. But I've been listening to to check the mic and wanting to talk about these guys that are going to be in college football this year, the potential draft guys next year. It's funny with NIL and the transfer portal, you never know. If there's any eligibility left, they might stay. But we were talking about all this stuff with Nate Tice the day. and just how loaded this class is going into next year. Like the NFL people are so excited.

Nobody was making trades for 27 draft picks because they're so excited about the talent that's in college football right now. Who are some of the players and not just the quarterbacks that just excites you about this college football season? Yeah. First off, I love it because I'm not just, I do, our podcast is, you know, 99% NFL, but I'm a college football fan and, you know, work in that. in the industry and the whole thing. So I love it. I mean, we just rewind a couple of years and you're looking at this recruiting class and Jeremiah Smith's coming in and Leonard Moore and what we thought Ryan Williams or Ryan Coleman Williams was at the time. And you're like, man, this, and Dylan Stewart, like this play, this class is loaded. Let's see what happens at a couple of years. Now, we also thought DJ Lagway was going to be a part of that. So obviously things change. But the receiver position

with Jeremiah Smith, with Cam Coleman, that's really exciting, especially seeing Cam Coleman going to Texas to play with Arch. All of the quarterbacks, you know, we're coming off basically a two year lull of first round quarterbacks. Only four QBs drafted in the first round over the last two years. And I know fans hate to say, you hate to hear, oh, next year's class is going to be better.

Just playing the odds here. Next year's class should be better, which includes potentially an Arch Manning, you know, C.J. Carr, Josh Hoover. I mean, there's just a million names who could develop and take that next step. Who knows if Lenora Sellers ever puts it all together as a passer? So,

still a lot of what-ifs, but it looks like next year's quarterback class, deeper and maybe better at the top. The receivers I mentioned, I think Leonard Moore looks like a generational quarterback prospect. God, I can't believe I just used the term generational. But he looks like the best prospect since, I don't know, Derek Stingley a couple years ago, Patrick Peterson 15 years ago. I mean, Leonard Moore looks unreal for Notre Dame. You and Sam were talking about on the show, and I hadn't thought about this matchup until then. But if you get a, and we had this, in the regular season. I think they're freshman year.

But if you get an Ohio State or no, it was in the national title game in 24. But if you get an Ohio State Notre Dame matchup in the playoff, then you could have Leonard Moore versus Jeremiah Smith, which feels an awful lot like Patrick Peterson versus Julio Jones back in the day. They played every year with Alabama and LSU. Absolutely. That was the first thing that came to mind because Jeremiah Smith,

you know, he's best wide receiver prospect since X, you know, name your favorite wide receiver prospect. prospect. I think Leonard Moore's best cornerback prospect since X. I mean, it does remind me a lot of of Julio and Patrick Peterson going head to head back in the old school SEC West, of course, when we had divisions. So yeah, I think we could absolutely see something like that. And the thing I love about Notre Dame, a lot of college defenses are just, yeah, we're going to play quarters and cover

six, and it's a lot of off coverage. Notre Dame says, we're better than you. We're playing press man coverage. I don't care. And so a lot of times when you're evaluating corners for the NFL, you say, well, I don't know how he plays press. You don't have those questions with Leonard Moore. He's long. He can move. And they put him in those one-on-one situation. So, yeah, I'm rooting for some Ohio State Notre Dame this year.

Andy, we've had a lot of conversations about quarterbacks in the NFL draft in the recent weeks. People who listen to the show believe that I hate Notre Dame and C.J. Carr, that's clearly not true. I know Steve is pretty high on C.J. So we want to, you know, make sure that everybody hears the whole story. What's your take on C. and how he is as an NFL draft prospect coming up. I mean, I'm really high on Notre Dame generally.

I think they're doing a great job, as I mentioned, with guys like Leonard Moore, the way they're playing differently, defensively. And I think they've just done a nice job loading up at the right places overall on that roster. I just think Carr, you know, being a redshirt freshman last year, I thought he did a really nice job. He's got some aggressiveness to him.

I think he's got enough tools. I just think he's going to develop and be in this mix, you know, in the first round, whenever that is, whether it's next year, whether it's the year after. It's just we're in an interesting world where if a guy shows any semblance of good, we just say, well, future first rounder. And we know it doesn't always work out. I just think Carr is going to continue to develop.

And he's still young and he showed a lot. I thought for Notre Dame, I think he's got everything you want. I think he's going to have a huge season this year. And he'll be having those discussions. Should he come out? Should he go back to school? So I do like Carr quite a bit. It's a good year to evolve for him, too, because you lose two first round running backs.

and obviously they're going to have talent at that position. Their line's going to be good. They're going to be able to run the ball. But when you have a more experienced quarterback, their receivers, by the way, are guys that are kind of coming of age. You know, Jaden Greathouse, we saw early, but like some of those guys are coming of age.

I would imagine if you were Mike Denbrock, their O.C., you're putting more on Carr's plate right now and seeing what he can do. I'm guessing he's going to be able to deliver. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it's part of the fall. of college football, right? You see players come in and out and then all of a sudden the quarterback goes from, hey, you know, kid gloves, you're a freshman to, all right, you've got a year of experience,

let's go. So I do think we'll definitely see a lot more on his plate this year. And plus, the defense will be in a good, you know, in a good spot. So I think Notre Dame is going to be, I think they're upset about everything that happened last year. And they went to the portal with some bad intentions. And I think they're, I think they're going to have a big season. Steve, you know more about college football than me. individual players and stuff. And I'm happy to have you here. Who are some underappreciated players that come to mind that we should be looking out for going into the year?

This is great because this is a lot of what I do, projecting players and everything. I think we're in a really interesting world of in the portal, you know, the big, the Cam Coleman's of the world, you know, the big name receiver transfers or whatever it may be, pass rush transfers from, you know, from Power 4 to Power 4, I think are pretty obvious. I think it's a golden age for the group of whatever's left, a group of players to really shine. So I'm looking at a guy like Jackson Harris, the wide receiver that went from Hawaii to LSU.

He really popped in my projection numbers, and I thought he was going to be, you know, I looked at like some of the, you say, the on three rankings and everything, and there might be a little bit lower than maybe where I have him. So those are the ones I'll be keeping an eye on, some of the group of five transfers. So Jackson Harris, wide receiver, Hawaii to LSU,

I think could have a huge season. Adam Trick, the Miami of Ohio transfer to Texas Tech as a pass rush or Texas Tech, I think, loaded up on some of these group of five defensive line transfers that I really like. Colorado, Santana Hopper from Tulane, undersized defensive tackle. So I'm really looking at these group of five, group of whatever, to power four transfers who I think can, they just get a chance to make a name for themselves while in college. And I think of all the NIL, the transfer portal era, I think the group of players benefit the most. So I'm always keeping an eye on some of those players.

We had Joey McGuire, the Texas Tech coach on, and he loves Adam Tric, absolutely loves. And that was one of those that I think they knew what they were getting. But I think they were pleasantly surprised in spring practice with what he wound up being. So that's going to be fun to watch. But I do have a Texas Tech-related question for you because we've talked a ton about Brendan Sorsby in the last week and a half since he entered into gambling rehab. We don't know what's going to happen. We don't know if he's going to play.

One, I was hoping you might be able to explain the NFL supplemental draft process because that's something he might have to do. But also, what is he as a prospect right now? If you're just going off Cincinnati tape and you don't have what they hoped was going to be a really good year for him at Texas Tech, What kind of prospect is he if he does have to enter that supplemental draft? Yeah, there's a wide range of opinions on Sorsby. So the supplemental draft, we haven't seen it since 2019. It was Jalen Thompson, the safety out of Washington State, who went in the third round to the Arizona Cardinals.

It was the last time we saw that players like Josh Gordon went in the supplemental draft. So essentially, historically, like if a college player loses eligibility, like Sorsby could. The BOS was a supplemental draft guy. Who's that? Oh, yeah. Brian Bosworth. Oh, I mean, it used to be like really highly touted. The most famous one was the Dallas Cowboys drafting Troy Aikman in the first round

and then drafting Steve Walsh in the first round of the supplemental draft the same summer. And it's like, could you imagine that happening right now if a team literally spent two first round picks on a quarterback and said, hey, go compete. Let's see what happens. So it was, I mean, there was, I wish I saw that in the Twitter slash X era. But so the NFL essentially says, you know, Brandon Sorsby, you're eligible in the supplemental. Draft teams will put blind bids in with their with a round pick for next year. So somebody says, we put up our fifth rounder or we put up our first rounder and whoever wins the bid essentially gets the player and you lose that pick for next year. So, you know, a team like the Jets or the Browns,

if they feel like they, you know, missed out on this quarterback class and they really want to bring Sorsby and they say, oh, we'll put up a two or, you know, we'll put up a one and we're trying to figure out, you know, how we're going to win this bid if we really want the player. The opinions are really wide range from Sorsby from, you know, he was a potential day one because he's got, he's got good tools. He's really fast, good arm, you know, is he potential round one all the way to day three? But it would be a really interesting story from an NFL perspective, especially coming off a year where there were only the two first round quarterbacks again. In the supplemental draft, because I don't know this, this might sound like a stupid question, but somebody told me to ask stupid questions on podcasts. So what if you both put up the same round? How do you decide who gets them?

It's last year's pick selection. Okay. So whoever. Yeah, so if it's the jets and the Rams, the Jets are going to get it. Okay, got it.

Right. And then the Jets are interesting because they actually have three first rounders next year. So they could, I think they could put up other teams. Yeah. I'd have to. Oh,

we'll put up our lowest first round. Yeah. That's interesting. I like that. The Jets are well set up. They knew. They knew what was happening with this draft class coming up. So they're well set up for next year.

Yeah. And I want. I wonder, too, if it would be like the worst possible time to have a supplemental draft for Sorsby because people are loading up their picks for next year. People want to get away their picks next year. Yeah, that's the tough part. Obviously, you know, he would rather be playing and competing. And then you go to Texas Tech, you know, there'll be the favorites in the Big 12. And you try to go on a run and you try to do the Mendoza thing where it's like, oh, you go from interesting prospects to, okay, you're going in the first round.

That would be the ideal for Sorsby. Now you have that unknown. It reminds me a little bit of the COVID season where you had guys like Gregory Rousseau coming out of Miami who it's like he had a lot of sacks. He had a lot of tools. I think he would have dominated had he played his final season, didn't get to see it. So there was a bit of a projection there. I think it's similar when it comes to Sorsby and if he's a supplemental draft prospect. So speaking of Fernando Mendoza, Josh Hoover is going from TCU to Indiana to Indiana to replace Fernando Mendoza.

Obviously, he's not viewed as a, you know, first round traffic as a one-one type guy, but neither was Fernando Mendoza at this time last year. So how much does that just the opportunity to go play on a team that we're pretty sure is going to be good, where they're putting talent around you, like they've got Charlie Becker, they've got Nick Marsh coming in from Michigan State. How much can that help him? Oh, I think it's huge, especially when you see, you know, the big games that they get to play in. That was the best thing about Mendoza is you get to go back and say, look at the big throws he made,

first game against Iowa early in the season, even if it wasn't his best game. Look what he did against Ohio State on third down in the Big Ten championship. Look what he did against Miami on fourth and five running for a touchdown. So you get to go back to those big games and see how a player steps up in crunch time. And I think that's absolutely huge. And then you get the coaching aspect of it. I mean, Indiana, it's going to be interesting. It's kind of like years ago.

Sabin and Alabama kept putting players into the NFL and, you know, some players would pan out, but maybe offensive linemen didn't as much. And you start to say, well, you know, are we just inflating Alabama players? It's going to be fascinating to see how these Indiana players pan out in the NFL. Are they just so well coached because they have coordinators that don't, that don't change? They've got this continuity on the coaching staff. Signetti and the staff are so good at developing and creating great college players. Do they translate to the NFL? It's going to be really interesting to see how a lot of these Indiana players that they're putting into the NFL. Some of them have great tools like Omar Cooper Jr. or DeAngelo Ponds, but other Elijah

Sarat slow, all their linebackers and safeties are just kind of like slow good football players. It's going to be really interesting to see how Indiana creates NFL prospects versus are they just really good in college. Steve, you mentioned before we started recording here that you guys come up with ways of quantifying total team talent. and that helps you kind of get a gauge on what to expect this year. And last year, your final, I don't know, simulation is the right word of your final conclusions. This is Steve's side gig after leaving pro football focus, which is fascinating to me, by the way.

So professional evaluation services, and you're working with NFL teams and college teams, and you pulled me aside at the senior bowl, and you told me about this. and you said, you know, you built this tool out to examine roster talent. And tell me, tell me who came out at the top when you did this before last season. And then tell me what the look on your face look like as the season went on. Well, thank you, Andy and Ari.

You guys are going to be my marketing arm right now. So I get to talk about this. So, Mike, yeah, I built this side company because this all started a couple years ago where I, right when I left PFF, I built a draft model. And the draft model, as I tested it, was really, really good. And I was like, wow, this is, this is good. What if I, what if I drafted like this every year? And I, and I just kept trying to break it and test it.

And I just, I created a draft score in every player. And I said, what if I just pulled, pulled players above a certain threshold? What if I only drafted those players? And I looked at historic hit rates and NFL draft picks would hit at two to three X, what the average draft pick would hit across all parts of the draft, whether it was, you know, round one, day two, day three. And so I applied the same process to college and said, okay, can I help schools in the portal? Can I put a portal score on players? So I started doing that. And I had similar results where I said, if teams only looked at certain players in the portal above, say,

an 80 in my system, zero to 100 system, they would double and triple their portal hit rates. And so that was just at the player level. And so the next step was saying, okay, how do I help schools who I'm, you know, consulting with? How do I help them make holistic team building decisions? How do I get them to say, okay, we've got this tackle, this pass rusher, this safety? They might have the same portal score, say, but they have different value to the team. So I created a player score off of that, which adjust for positional value, adjust for confidence,

and basically just took that and rolled it up to a team score. And so these are my team scores, if you're above a 10, which doesn't mean anything to anybody, I'm just telling you, if you're above a 10, you're going to win 10, you're going to win 10 games, 80% of the time over the last few years. So it's like you're immediately on the green to being a 10 win team and a playoff team. And then last year, the top two teams in my team score were Indiana and Miami. And so, and I didn't go into this. When you did that before the season, I mean, because that's a pretty, we thought they were going to be good, but we didn't think they were to play with the national title.

No, I know. So I'm sitting there. I brought in my childhood friend as my business partner, and we're sitting there tracking it the whole season. And at one point, so the top four teams for me were Indiana, Miami, then Texas Tech and Ole Miss. And I was sitting there like week six, week seven. I'm like, they're all undefeated, you know? And then Miami hits their lull. They lose a couple games.

I'm like, all right, the dream's dead. because I was rooting for Indiana, Miami, and we get into the playoff, Miami sneaks in, and I'm just rooting for this just for the data to win. And, yeah, I mean, I look, I wasn't, I'm not trying to go in there and say, these teams will definitively be the best. And I remember presenting it to someone who's like, well, where's Ohio State? Where's Oregon? I'm like, oh, they're a little bit lower this year, you know, trying to like, you know, just

it's not perfect, you know, but eventually Indiana and Miami rise to the top. and I'm like texting everybody, pulling the idea of the side, telling everybody it is perfect. Well, why aren't you explaining this in front of a whiteboard right now? Yeah, I should be.

I mean, this is, again, we can't give away the store, Steve. You got to, some of it has to remain a mystery. So I will be, it is my marketing ploy this entire summer because here's the way I do it, Ari and Andy. Do you know what the winning percentage is, when you win the turnover battle,

it's 79%. Yeah, I thought it was like 80. Right. Yeah, let's say it's 80. Coaches love this. Hey, hey guys, we got to win the turnover battle. We'll win 80% of our games. But you can't really control the turnover battle.

You can't control the tipped interceptions. We know there's a lot of causation in there, right? You're down to scores and you start to force a couple passes. You throw some late picks. You lose the turnover battle. It's a lot of game flow related results, right? 80% is your winning percentage when you're above a 10 in team score. And this is something that teams, like when I'm working with schools,

we can workshop this stuff. We can be sitting there in January saying if you add these five players or you're going to retain these 15 players, here's where your team score is going to be. If you're above a certain threshold, you win more games. And again, when I was testing it, you know, it maps to wins extremely well. It maps to Bill Connolly's SP Plus, even better. You know, Bill's maybe the best at, you know, evaluation system that adjusts for strength of schedule and everything. Like the correlation from my team score to Bill Connolly's SP Plus is unbelievable for football.

You don't find actionable correlated stats in football very often. And I think I have with this team score that, you know, comes from these player projections. So that's my, that's my marketing pitch to all the schools around the nation. Like, you can actually workshop what's going to get you. from a six-win team to an eight-win team to a 10-win team and then into the playoff. Well, a stress test test says again. Obviously, you don't have all the data going into this season quite yet, but if you run it today,

what teams are there that may surprise us? All right. So I got to tighten up making sure I got the right player, you know, a lot of roster moving. Hold on. Let me get the better game map open real quick. Let's do this. Let's have an official season preview. You guys can bring me back inviting myself.

I will do an official season preview. I'll give you the finalized data as we get closer to the year. Because I might make some tweaks, turn some knobs this summer, spring and summer and tighten it up. A couple teams that have popped so far. Texas Tech, big surprise. Again. Now, with or without Sorsby, they're back. And so what's interesting about them is a lot of their transfers last year, you probably have a touch more confidence with.

you know, when David Bailey comes in late from Stanford or Lee Hunter comes in from UCF, the power four to power for transfers you have a little bit more confidence in. But they loaded up tech on the Adam tricks of the world and a couple other group of transfers who I think, I think they've replenished on their defensive line, but maybe with just a little bit less confidence than I had last year. But I think they've done a really good job. Cody Campbell and company, they've done a really nice job. Again, we'll see what happens with Sorsby and Will Hammond and what happens at quarterback,

but the rest of the roster looks good. Oklahoma popped for me. And that's, you know, with John Mateer coming off of maybe a disappointing season, once he had the thumb injury, things tapered off a little bit, but a lot of their defense looking really good, some returning players, a couple transfers. Oklahoma's looking pretty good. Oklahoma State is going to be a really fascinating test case here, right? You got Drew Mestemaker coming in, but you have all the North Texas guys, right? So all, all, All of the North Texas transfers, the continuity with the coaching staff and everything, that's got them high in my numbers, and we'll see if that ends up translating.

I think they're going to be a really interesting one to watch. I had a feeling they'd be better. They're a little bit higher than I expected, though, at this point. So I'm curious, and you've got a lot of factors in here. How much does this average roster age factor in? Because that's something we get questions from fans about all the time. like Indiana is just old. That's why they're like, well, everybody wants to be old.

But how much, how much does that matter? I haven't looked at that specifically. And I know that that was the story for Indiana, but I think the story is deeper than that. I think it's when they got all, you know, Elijah Sarad and DeAngelo Ponds, when they got all those players from James Madison, I think the story is the best group of five, six players

can translate and play at Power 4. It was kind of like when I was playing Division 2 baseball and we were like, you know, I'd look around, be like, I could play D1, right? I could pitch at Boston College or Yukon or these other Northeast schools in my area. But the problem was if we went to go play those schools, we didn't have the staff to, you know, maybe handle a whole weekend series against them, but our top three guys could. And I think we're learning that in college football that the, again, Texas Tech, I mean, sorry, North Texas, their top five or six transfers all go to Oklahoma State.

They could all probably play perfectly fine in the Big 12, but you don't want to take the entire roster there. So I think that's the bigger story. And what we learned from Signetti and Indiana is first off the continuity. Secondly, they took the best players from James Madison to Indiana. And that was the other thing about my team score. Going

into 24, Indiana was above a 10. And I wasn't even looking at it at that time. Like, oh, look, Indiana is going to be this sneaky playoff team. In 24, when they made the playoff and got smoked by Notre Dame, they were above a 10 in my team score. Like, it was popping then. SMU when they were

on the verge. They were already pretty good, but a little bit of a surprise. Then they were above a 10 for me in 2024 as well. And so I think it's less about the age and more about just find good football players. The non-powerful players can play, and they can make a big impact and powerful. The spirit of college football is Shadenfreude. Can I just ask you? And I don't know if this is bad for business, so we can cut it out.

But who was above a 10 that didn't play well? Auburn was close last year. And so the few teams that haven't made it, who were above a 10, either had a quarterback injury or just like poor quarterback play historically or just underachieved. Of course, there's always going to be misses. Did they fire their coach? I tweeted this the other day, Ari.

I was like, I could show you something that works 99% of the time. And the first question's like, well, what was the miss? What was the outlier? Right. So thanks for bringing up the out. No, no, I'm just, well, I mean, like, I was super high on Auburn going into last season, Steve, because one of the ways I try to evaluate teams,

I try to talk to guys like you, and I try to get as much scouting info as I can before a season because I've sort of shifted from how many five-star recruits did you sign to how many NFL players are on your roster right now? And Auburn had a lot. And like Keldrick Falk was off the charts. And you had, so that was, that was how I was judging that.

And I said, Auburn's going to win nine games. And I used to do it. You would just look at team total talent. And then when Michigan won the national championship a few years ago, it was just, well, there's only 30 players or 34 players that are impacting the actual games. Let's just break those people down.

Like, it doesn't matter who you're, I mean, I guess injuries happen and things like that. But like the way that we have to view the sport in general with what we've gone on here has had to have a seismic shift. and frankly speaking, I'm not 100% sure we all have a grasp on it yet. Michigan was number one in my team score in 2023 because they were just returning a whole bunch of productive college football players. Whether they were, and they had some higher draft picks.

They had a lot of draft picks, but they just returned a ton of productive college football players. And so I thought, you know, Bud Elliott's work, I thought was fantastic with blue chip ratio and looking at four and five stars. It just, there's too much movement now. And so I thought that was a great way to look at things for a while. look, and I'm looking at this from a similar standpoint. We're just trying to get on the green. Are you in the mix to make the playoff and make a championship run? And I think when you're above certain thresholds, the same way Bud said with his

blue chip ratio, I'm doing something similar based off of college production and looking at the portal, but also giving schools the opportunity to manipulate these things, right? So when they're sitting there making a decision, I've got the data to help them make a decision. Like, I'll give you an example, last year, one of the schools I'm working with had to debate, you know, this kid played 150 snaps as an offensive tackle. And we, we think he's going to be a great player going forward. And I just said, look, there's six percent chance that he becomes an above average player next year. But if he, but some of the similar players historically are like future first round offensive tackles. So those are the types of decisions. I think teams schools should be looking at,

which is like, do I pay this SEC former four star, you know, low sample size player, or do I pay this established group of player? Those are the types of debates I think they're trying to make. I love having, it is absolutely fascinating. I know, I know we have to go. I just wanted to say I love having people like Steve on the show because you're so smart and you're like gifted at what you do. And it like makes me feel like we're elevating the cognitive level of the show.

one last question for me and then I'll shut up. Obviously in the NIL transfer portal era, a lot of the stuff comes down to how much money do you have? How much can you afford to do? But from when I hear you speak, it makes me feel like if you are an elite level evaluator, there's maybe more of an opening to be successful than people give you credit for. What is your take on how to build a roster? And is there more hope now or less hope now for teams that don't have as much money? I'm torn on this one.

And I was just joking, by the way, about you pulling out the Auburn thing. I wanted really quick, I want to piggyback on that because the other teams that were close to Auburn last year were like Louisville, Georgia Tech. Like they popped early. And then Clemson. And so this somewhat answers your question. I thought Clemson was the big test case for in this era is recruit and develop the right way to go. because I love media days. I just love media day time.

I love the coach. I love listening to the coach speak for whatever reason. You'll hear every coach say, that's what that is. That's mental humor. It is. It might be. It's just the excitement of the summer.

Football is coming back soon. But they all say the same thing. Oh, we're still, it's still a relationship game. We're still going to recruit and develop. Like, are you really? Are you really? Like, do you really want to invest in two years of a kid? If you're a middle class school, do you really want to invest in a kid for two years and have him leave?

And so those are legitimate tradeoff decisions. And I thought Clemson was, Clemson was the perfect team to say, Davo, you had it right all the time, you just recruit and develop, you had your entire starting offensive lineback, you had three returning receivers who were all young and good. You had your starting quarterback four-year starter. You have two first-round picks on your defensive line. you've got a first round picket corner, you're loaded, and they really disappointed. And I hate using one team as an example, but Clemson and to a lesser extent, maybe Florida last year, right, Billy's in his final step of the recruit and develop. And they both didn't do well.

And so, yeah, and the team that did well. We talked to people who played Florida who were like, that team was absolutely stacked. Yeah. Can't believe they lost. They had a ton of talent. Like if Billy was going to make a move, and I know the schedule is, if he was going to make a move like this was the year that they built up to. And Davo was going to make his point. This is the year they built up to. Plus, he even gave in a little bit and sprinkled in some

transfers who happened to be good players will help on the edge. Right. Yeah. High level transfers. Yeah. So Clemson in the numbers, guys, Clemson disappointed me last year. They killed me because their numbers were through the roof with all their retention play. And so what's, go ahead. Just to be clear, though, I didn't bring up who didn't perform well to make your numbers look stupid. I am fascinated by teams that actually put together rosters that would test well, but your coaches didn't get what they should have out of them. Yeah, of course. And it's a really good point, Ari, because I was helping a school with their coach search last

year. There was a million coach searches. And because I think I've got a pretty strong baseline of what a team should do, then I also have an example of, okay, how well have coaches done when they've had good rosters, right? And so I was able to help a school in their coach search saying, hey, these are the coaches that went above and beyond, you know, won more games than maybe they're projected to. And these are the coaches who underperforms. So it's definitely part of the story.

The point that I always try to make is, you know, PFF started 10 years ago with college data. It is a whole new world of data between PFF and all the, you know, now they're a part of team works and you have all these other vendors, there is so much data and information. And I don't know that the college front office world is completely equipped to handle all of that, which is where I try to come in and say, okay, I know what to do with this data, synthesize it and make it actionable. Right. So that's where I think college is in this fascinating world, right?

It used to just be like, hey, go win all the recruiting battles and, you know, get the most talent and you probably win more over time. And some teams are a little bit better at developing and a little bit better recruiting. And you go from there. It's just a fascinating time because there's more. information than ever and you have this super tight window in January theoretically after tampering to go and make these roster decisions and recruit the right kids so it's just a really interesting world so you know from a team building perspective i just think we're all trying to

figure so i do think that the teams that maybe you're building the 40 million dollar rosters have an advantage because they just change the market and that is that is the other piece of this that is difficult right it's it's a little MLB-ish where we're you know, the Dodgers are really good at developing players, but of course, when they want the free agent, they can get them. And so if Texas Tech or LSU or Texas or whoever wants to throw the money around, if they want to get the high end players, they might be able to, right? They might be able to outbid everybody. But there's still opportunity. The middle class schools still have opportunity.

They have X amount of millions or if there's no legitimate cap, but let's pretend they have 15 million to spend. You have to spend it wisely. You have to figure out where the positional value is, right? It's another part of this story. In the NFL, we talk about the running back positional value or linebacker positional value being low and the market adjust for that. I don't think a lot of the college people I talk to are like, hey, what percentages do the NFL use?

And it's like, it's a different game. Running backs are more valuable in college than they are in the NFL. You can't use the same system. So we're still trying to figure out how much do you actually allot to running back one? How much do you allot to your best pass rushers to your linebackers? to your linebackers, to your corners. So I think there's still a lot of opportunity for the middle class programs. But there is a world where if you're, like I interviewed at Michigan State last year for their GM job.

I mean, there's a world like if you're Michigan State, you have Nick Marsh. Like what's the point in recruiting Nick Marsh and having a great player who's just going to go get bought by Mark Cuban in Indiana? I mean, it's a legitimate question unless it's like, all right, just go find the next guy. It's like if you hit on those players, you better become a legitimate player that kids want to go to so that you're not just developing kids for someone else. So it is, it's a tricky situation for like the middle class schools, I would say right now. And then you don't want to become a AAA or double A baseball team where people are only in for themselves and nobody cares about the games. Like me. I'm the only baseball player who admitted how selfish I was and I only cared about myself.

I think I would be too. Don't beat yourself over that, Steve. Also, Michigan State. to point out, does have their own billionaire NBA owner. So he's just more interested in basketball because he played basketball. Well, yeah, they think they're a basketball school. So it comes down. Yeah, having more money definitely helps.

But as schools build front offices, analytics departments. And again, I hear this all the time on the true. We want to build an NFL like front office. And the administrators are saying stuff like that. And then people, you know, the personnel people are like, we don't need NFL. They don't know what they're doing. And so it's like this, it's kind of like the scouts versus the nerds, you know, money ball type of stuff.

Like we know what we're doing in college. We don't need NFL. But you need NFL like infrastructure. And all that is, it's just a big problem solving apparatus, right? You're just trying to solve problems, make better decisions. And there are advantages to be had for the middle class schools if they make a lot of good decisions over these next few years when it comes to player evaluation and valuation and how to deploy resources.

Steve, I can't, we are going to bring you back. I cannot for that. That's an omploid. Yeah, like July or August, whenever you want to do it, I cannot wait because one, you're confirming my confirmation bias on Oklahoma, which I think will be better this year. So I'm pumped about that. But yeah, I am excited about this. And everybody, listen to check the mic.

that's the podcast. Steven Sam do an incredible job. Obviously, they're talking a lot of NFL, but listen, a lot of you love the NFL, too. We know that. You know, I'm realizing, Andy, too, is whenever we get these NFL guys on, they're so good.

Like, Steve, it was so awesome to have you. I really enjoyed everything you were saying. I was on the end of the feet in their marketplace. We don't have as much competition. Yeah, we don't have as much competition. Maybe we should be, like, college football and bring more NFL talent on our show. Like, I don't know.

I'm a college guy too. Sam, I have to convince Sam on our, he's from Ireland. He doesn't like college. I love college. It's, you know, it's one B for me behind the NFL,

but I'm a college guy. They're playing games over there to get your own. When he called it practice for the spring games instead of spring practice, I was like, oh, we got to school the Irish on the, on God's sport here.

Steve, thank you so much. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it. Appreciate you. Thank you. Thank you.

Steve Palazzolo for joining us and we will have him back because when he gets all the rosters inputted, everything's finalized. I want to know who's getting spit out with a 10 team ranking because it's going to be pretty interesting. You are an interesting. We're on a pretty good run this week with guests. That was sensational. And again, thank you to Steve and blessing us with your knowledge and your thought process. My favorite thing in the entire world is when somebody has data or a system that has proven to work knowing who the next ones are. And I'm very curious at the end of the summer when we have them back, who's in his top 10 there?

Because, you know, I'm like, now of a sudden I'm high on Oklahoma State. He was just as surprised as the rest of us would have been with Texas Tech and Ole Miss at the top of his list last year. And I got to, like, I didn't know if Texas Tech would be up there again this year. He seems to think they are the Oklahoma thing. It's very interesting to me. But speaking of great guests, tomorrow. On three's Chris Lowe joins us.

He has been all over the place, was visiting with Trinidad Shamless last week. He also has visited Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State recently. We'll talk about all of those places with Chris Lowe tomorrow. We'll talk to you then.