Andy & Ari On3 - CALLING MY SHOT: 10 predictions for the 2024 College Football Season | What can Nebraska be in 2024?

Episode Date: July 2, 2024

Andy offers his boldest predictions for the 2024 season, including…How many SEC teams will make the College Football Playoff…What happens next at Nebraska and Colorado…Which coach will win his way off the hot seat…(0:00-1:58) Calling my shot Intro(1:59-8:22) Joe Castiglione Sounds Off(8:22-14:22) This will be the most electrifying season since 2007(14:23-19:57) 5 SEC Teams in 12 Team CFP(19:58-24:05) Nebraska will start the 2024 season 7-0(24:09-27:39) Colorado will make a bowl game(27:40-33:28) Miami will play in the ACC Title Game(33:29-37:55) Arch Manning Will Start a Game at QB, but Quinn Ewers will remain QB1(37:56-43:18) 2024 Heisman winner will start with larger than +2000 odds(43:19-47:38) Baylor's Dave Aranda will be this year's version of Neal Brown(47:39-50:35) Watch out for Missouri's Running Back room(50:36-55:12) Liberty Will go Undefeated and Miss the CFP(55:13-57:06) Conclusion, Wrapping Up - Dear Andy tomorrow! [e-mail] to watch the show instead? Head over to YouTube and join us LIVE, M-F, at 8 am et! https://youtube.com/live/gHdCDQV2tNEHost: Andy StaplesProducer: River Bailey

Welcome to Andy Staples on three. We are predicting the future today. That's right. I am calling my shot. 10 things that will happen in the 2024 college football season, unless they don't. My record on this is pretty spotty. Let's be real about this,

but I feel very confident about these picks. Very, very confident about these picks very very confident and i know there's some that are probably going to make certain fan bases mad you will think i am jinxing your team you will be sick of hearing about other teams you will say you always pump this team up and they always disappoint us i get it you will accuse me of favoring one conference over the others. I'm used to it. All of these feel very reasonable, even though when you say them out loud, some of them sound pretty crazy.

And that is the beauty of this. The beauty of this is this season is going to be wildly unpredictable. It's going to be very different. It's going to require us to think about this stuff in ways that we haven't thought about it before. So I've got one prediction. Prediction number two, that a bunch of you are going to be like, there's no way. I can make a very compelling case. Just telling you, it's going to be a spectacular season.

How do we know this? Because even in the off season, on days that shouldn't really mean anything, have anything going on, or should just be simple happy days of celebration, you get trash talk. Before we get into predictions, we have to address this one thing. Remember, Monday was the first day officially for Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC. So there were a lot of celebratory functions in Austin and in Norman. The SEC network was obviously all over this. There was a roundtable discussion from Norman on the SEC network.

Joe Castiglione was on a panel. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey was on the panel. Dari Noka, the SEC network host who went to Oklahoma, he's on the panel. And Joe Castiglione, the Oklahoma athletic director, is talking about moving to the SEC and what that meant. And in the past, there had been some reservations from Summit, Oklahoma about the idea of moving to the SEC. But he delivers this beauty and everybody knew who he was talking about. He said, I will tell you without reservation, every coach we talked to was excited.

And you know what? The ones that weren't aren't here anymore. That is a shot across the bow at Lincoln Riley. Remember, Lincoln Riley was Oklahoma's head coach in 2021 when the Sooners decided to go to the SEC. After that season, he leaves for USC. Now, remember, at that point, USC had not announced it was going to the Big Ten yet. I do think the wheels were in motion.

So I would be genuinely curious to find out how much did Lincoln Riley find out during the search process as he was deciding to leave Oklahoma for USC? How much did he find out about the potential Big Ten move? Because that's one thing I've never been able to fully nail down the timeline on that. I know that it was a several month process of USC and the Big Ten kind of doing the dance. But did he know they were definitely moving to the Big Ten when he went to USC? Because it feels like he left Oklahoma not wanting to get into the fire pit of the SEC and just jumped into a different fire pit in the Big Ten. Because I think it's going to be very similar.

It may not be as intensive a recruiting environment, but I think as we've learned over the last few months, if you want to compete for national titles, it actually doesn't matter whether you're in the Big Ten or the SEC, you're competing against the same Big Ten and SEC schools no matter what. So Lincoln Riley, who had like a bunch of very high profile top 100 defensive recruits committed, and now they aren't because they're all flipping to SEC schools, he's in the same boat he would have been in had he stayed at Oklahoma.

Christopher Jordan out of the frying pan into the fire. Exactly. It is one of the great questions because Bob Stoops, when he was at Oklahoma, did not want any part of the SEC and recruiting in the SEC. It just wasn't what he wanted to do. He did not feel like he had the stomach for that. Now, remember, Bob Stoops had worked in the SEC for three years as Florida's defensive coordinator, so he had a good idea of how it worked. He obviously had to play against SEC schools in the postseason, but that was not something Oklahoma wanted. It was something we talked about with Eddie Rudasevich and George Stoya on Monday's show.

Under the previous president, David Boren at Oklahoma, the leadership there was not particularly keen on moving to the SEC. The SEC always wanted them. So when you had that situation where the Pac-10 then was trying to poach six schools from the Big 12, Oklahoma was very much on board with going out West. They did not want to go to the SEC. The SEC would have taken them at any point in the past 30, 40 years. It would have been, if Oklahoma had said,

we want, we want to come, the SEC would have been like, okay, come on. It was only later that the Oklahoma administration decided the SEC was the best thing for them. But the Lincoln Riley thing is,

is absolutely hilarious. The joke is, because Joe Castiglione, if you've met Joe, he's one of the most mild mannered guys you'll ever meet. He does not make public pronouncements like that lightly. That was some hanging red meat for the Oklahoma fan base. But that said, let's go back to what we said on the show on Monday. I'm a firm believer Oklahoma's in a better place right now going into the SEC with Brent Venables in charge. Whether Brent Venables is the guy long term as an on-field coach, we don't know yet. But we do know he knows exactly

what the roster has to look like to be competitive in the SEC because he was there at Clemson with Dabo Sweeney when they were putting together rosters to try to beat the best teams in the SEC every year in the playoff. And guess what? They did it twice and won the national championship. And you would put those Clemson rosters 2016, 2018, 2014, 2015, you put those Clemson rosters up against anybody in the SEC and go, yep, that's competitive right there. They're in a better place now. But man, poor Lincoln Riley, waking up in Los Angeles,

looking out over the Pacific Ocean, beautiful house. I don't know if he's smoking a brisket or not, but catching a stray. Catching a stray. And that's why we love college football, because you can wake up on a random Monday in the off season. Not much is going on except a big party in two towns for the new conference

they're going to be in. And you get that. That's the beauty of college football. All right. It is time to predict the future. I am calling my shot. Call these bold predictions. Call these reckless predictions.

Whatever you want to call. I've got 10 of them for you. I feel good about these. And I was going back and forth with Jesse Simonson, our national writer on three. And he did a column about this last year. And his number one, right out of the gate, right out of the gate was this will be Jim Harbaugh's last season at Michigan. And I was like, Jesse, that is, that is beautiful. Now some of his hot seat predictions were a little off, but when you come out of the gate strong like that and you are 100% correct,

that's all anybody's going to remember. My first one, I guarantee I'm going to be correct on this. Guaranteed. I'll tell you why. Because it has no other choice but to be this. Number one, this will be the most electrifying college football season since 2007. And maybe even more electrifying in 2007, but remember 2007, 2007 started with Appalachian state beating Michigan. And it never actually got seen at any point along the way you had Louisiana Monroe beating Alabama. You had the final day of the season. So remember at that point, some leagues had championship games, others didn't. So in the Big 12 championship game, you had Missouri versus Oklahoma. If Missouri won the game,

Missouri was going to play for the national title. Then over in the Big East, you had the final regular season game. You had the backyard brawl. West Virginia heavily favored over Pitt. If West Virginia won, they were going to play in the national title game. So you woke up with the possibility of a Missouri-West Virginia national title game. And when you went to bed, the national title game was Ohio State versus LSU. Two loss LSU, by the way. Which, this was the BCS era. Two loss team in the national title game.

Well, you might have a two loss team in the national title game this year. Because you've got a 12-team playoff. You've got brand new conference alignments. We've gotten to mega conferences at this point. You have a 16-team SEC, an 18-team Big 10, a 16-team Big 12, a 17-team ACC that includes two teams from California. I mean, this is a crazy, crazy situation.

Only strange things are going to happen. Things we haven't seen before are going to happen. The dynamics with the rules of the new playoff are going to make things very interesting. We've said this on the show, being number five in the playoff seating which doesn't necessarily mean you're the number five team in the country you can be the number two team or the number three team and wind up the fifth seed depending on how everything shakes

out because conference champs have to occupy those first four seats so we don't know what it's going to look like but we do know there are going to be a lot of games in november that we would have just yawned through that now have an effect on multiple teams throughout the country and that's what with what happened say between 2007 and now you you had the you had the dominance of the sec for a while where it was that sec national title streak where we had, you know, Florida wins it. LSU wins it. Alabama when or Florida wins it again, Alabama then goes on its run and it's not broken until Florida state wins in 2013, but then it starts again where Alabama is very much dominant.

And the 14 playoff comes in, which intensified our focus on the national championship. But because it was a 14 playoff, all but five, six teams feel eliminated by the end of October. So that got kind of boring. Now you're going to have games that are meaningful. You're going to have probably 20 teams in the hunt at the end of October. And as November comes along, you're going to have games that affect not just the two teams playing in them, but two teams in other conferences, three teams in other conferences, depending on where everybody's seated or where everybody's ranked. There are going to be a lot of ripple effects. And I know some of you don't like this. I'm going to laugh at you at the end of the season when you're like, yeah, this was way better. The 14 playoff was dumb. The BCS was dumb. The old bowl system was incredibly stupid.

There's a reason everybody else is their season with a tournament because that's the best way to do it the most entertaining way to do it and don't say well that made college football different no it just made college football dumb this will be better this will be more fun we got predictions all over the truth says clemson is going to have an actual competent offensive line. That's not going to frustrate people. Ooh, that is a good prediction. I don't have that one in there, but I'm happy. If you guys want to throw your predictions out in the chat, we can add bonus predictions.

I like it. I like it. All right. That's a very general prediction. That's going to come true. I like it. All right. That's a very general prediction. That's going to come true. I already know that. Let's go to one that is a lot more specific and this is going to enrage not just the people who don't like this team. I don't think the people who like this team are going to be very happy with this prediction because you're going to say I am jinxing them. Excuse me. I am out of

order here. That's number three. Number two prediction. This is where you're just going to call me an SEC homer and that's okay. I'm used to it. Five SEC teams will make the first 12 team college football playoff. Five. So when I did my post spring top 25, I got done and I realized, wait, I have five SEC teams in the playoff here. Is that too many? Do I need to adjust it? And I thought, no, I don't think I do because let's look at how last season ended. There were seven teams that will be in the SEC in 2024. So at the end of 2023, seven teams that are going to be in the SEC in 2024 were in the top 13 of the college football playoff rankings. So that was Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and Oklahoma. We're all in the top 13 of the college football playoff rankings.

So now we know how the rules work. Highest ranked group of five champ gets in. That probably means, because they're probably going to be ranked lower than number 12. That probably means the number 12 team booted out. If one of the power conference teams happens to be ranked lower than number 12, then your number 11 team's probably getting booted out too. But I think as big as these power conferences are now, I think the chances of a champion being ranked under number 12, pretty slim. I think that your ACC champ and your big 12 champ are probably going to be top 10 teams. So I'm thinking, can the SEC get five teams in that top 11? And yeah, I do think it's possible because Alabama, Georgia, and Texas, from a roster standpoint, are capable of competing for the national title.

It doesn't mean they're going to have the perfect seasons, but you don't have to have the perfect season anymore. So we think those three teams are going to get in and we think maybe one of those teams going to win the SEC. Now, there's some other teams that could be competitive and also compete for the SEC title. But we think those three teams probably would get in. Texas and Ole Miss. Both of those, I feel like got good schedule draws. Alabama and Georgia, they got a little bit tougher schedule draws, but Texas and Ole Miss got good schedule draws. Ole Miss, the roster looks good. Ole Miss would have made it last year in this system.

Missouri would have made it last year in this system. Now, I don't know if Missouri this year is going to be as good. We'll talk a little more about the Tigers later. We know their defense needs to be replenished. I'm not worried about their offense. So they're a contender. Tennessee got a great schedule draw. Should be better on offense. Should be as good or better on defense. They got a good situation. Oklahoma and LSU are Oklahoma and LSU. Now, yes, their schedules are

a little bit tougher, but these are programs that always are good. Like their baseline is good. So if some of the breaks go their way, they could be 10 win regular season teams. They could be in the playoff. I think that, I think it's possible. You look at last year, it probably would have been four. Go through the years. And this is cyclical. Because if you go through the years of the college football playoff, there were years when the SEC would have only gotten three in. I think there was one year where they only would have gotten two into the college football playoff.

Because they had some doubt. There was a period where it was really Alabama carrying everybody, but the sec is very deep right now. The big 10 is trying to get that deep. And I will be curious to see which big 10 teams we're talking about, because those are the ones that are probably going to be fighting with the sec teams for these, these spots.

This is, this is probably where your Penn State comes in. If Iowa has a functional offense, I didn't predict that. I thought about predicting Iowa will have a functional offense. I'm not sure I'm ready to go that far yet. But those are the teams that are going to be fighting for these spots. If USC is good, they could be fighting for one of these spots like if USC's defense is really improved for all the stuff we say about Lincoln Riley we we love his offense his offense is always good so if their defense is improved do they get in the mix for one of these then you got the big 12 where it feels like anybody can win it.

The ACC, we're going to talk about that in a second. But right now, I'm saying five SEC teams in that first 12-team playoff. Next one. All right, this is my very specific team-specific prediction that will enrage the fans not of this team and the fans of this team. Nebraska will be 7-0 entering the Ohio State game. 7-0. Look at that schedule. UTEP, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Illinois at Purdue, Rutgers at Indiana. Now, Kirk Cignetti and company in Indiana, they're like, hey, we're coming for Ohio State and Michigan. Forget Purdue, we're coming for everybody.

I don't discount Kirk Cignetti making Indiana better. The Rutgers game is going to be the ultimate rock fight. Rutgers are going to have a really good defense. That game's in Lincoln. If that game were in Piscataway, I might not be as bold in this prediction. Obviously, Colorado beat them last year in Boulder. Can Nebraska overcome what was a big problem with turnovers that hamstrung a very good defense? That was the issue for a lot of last season.

So here's the thing. It's probably Dylan Raiola starting at quarterback. So your five-star recruit, all the pressure in the world coming in. But the reality is Tony White's defense is going to be the star at Nebraska. Nash, Hutmacher, Polar Bear, those guys, they are going to be the ones that are going to be relied upon to help win these games. And these, I would imagine these games could be fairly low scoring, but Dylan Raiola has to be good, but he does not have to be Superman to make this work. And the thing is, like, go back to last season, the first game against Minnesota.

Just take care of the ball and you win the game. Those are the ones. Plus, we look at Matt Rule's history. When he went to Temple, they improved by four wins from year one to year two. At Baylor, they improved by five wins from year one to year two. Now,lor, they improved by five wins from year one to year two. Now, Nebraska was in a better place when rule took over than either of those programs were.

So there's probably not that much room for a jump because a five-win improvement is a 10-win season. And the 7-0 part, it could be 7-5 or 8- and four even if you start seven and oh because the schedule does get hairier after that but i think this is definitely possible and i know if you're nebraska and you're going stop this please stop this please stop jinxing us we can't have nice things you can't say this this has happened happened before. And it has happened before. Like I remember Scott Frost's second season. I have no idea where people were getting this from, but you know, they do a media poll at big 10 media days and, or, or right before big 10 media days. And this was going into Scott Frost's second season, Nebraska gets picked to win the big 10

West. And it was like, why? What changed? What happened? I didn't understand that one. I do understand this one though. I really do because I think that defense is going to be very good. I think that defense is going to make it much easier on the offense. Now, it's a different ball game when they go to Columbus. So if they're seven and oh,

six and one going into Columbus, I I'll, I'm going to have to have seen some impressive stuff to think they're going to be able to hang with Ohio state, but that's not really what you're worried about at that point. Like if they can just get bowl eligible, Nebraska needs to take that next step. And they're right there at the doorstep last year, could not win that sixth game. Imagine if they could have that out of the way, just as the first half of the season ends. It's definitely possible. The toughest challenge, of course, in that bunch, probably week two when Colorado shows up. That brings me to prediction number four. Colorado will make a bowl game. I realize that when we discuss Colorado,

there are usually one of two extremes being staked out. And I get it because when people talk about Colorado, it's not just your average college football fan. We talked about Colorado having escape velocity. Deion Sanders has escape velocity where he escapes the college football bubble and goes into the main sports bubble and the non-sports bubble. And then people have very extreme opinions because they don't know how the sport actually works. So if you're talking about Colorado, you're either saying they're going to win the big 12 or they're going to go three and nine. The truth is probably more in the middle. There were a four win team last year. They lost some close games.

The idea of them being a six and six or seven and five team is not that extreme now i realize i have just handed them a loss here i said nebraska was going to go seven and oh to start the season so that is handing colorado a loss there but i think they can be two wins better than they were last season. They have brought in offensive linemen who, if you look at their performance at their previous schools, look like they can be better than what they had last year. We'll see how the offense looks. Pat Schirmer taking over. It's going to look like a different offense than the one they ran under Sean Lewis.

So I don't know if that's going to be better for Shadur Sanders or not. We'll find out. Travis Hunter, though, will be the best player on the field probably in all of their games. That's a helpful thing. Defensively, we'll see, did they get better on the defensive line? If you look at the individual performances of the players that they got out of the portal on last year's teams, they probably are better. I don't know how much better. And I've said, and it makes the Colorado fans very mad when I say this, that I don't know that they're going to be that much better than last season.

But you don't have to be that much better than last season to be 6-6. So you're going to have to beat Colorado state again. You're going to have to beat North Dakota state again. I've handed you a loss at Nebraska and I'm sorry about that, but like you got to beat, you got to win it against Baylor UCF. You're going to have to win some hard games like an at Texas tech. Love. It's a terribly tough place to play. You have to win that game. You've got Utah at Kansas, Oklahoma State as a closing stretch. Utah and Oklahoma State among the betting favorites to win the Big 12. You probably need to have, maybe you need to be at six before you get to that stretch,

but maybe you need to be at five and win one of those. But I do think they can be better. Do I think they're going to win the Big 12? No, I don't. I think it's possible for a lot of Big 12 teams to be competitive in the Big 12. And if the breaks go your way, maybe you're in the mix for the Big 12 title game

toward the end of the season. But I'm kind of like everybody else. K-State, Utah, Oklahoma State, those feel like the most likely candidates to win the Big 12. But Colorado can be better. So you get an extra game of Coach Prime. Next prediction.

Miami will play in the ACC title game. Now, remember when Miami joined the ACC 2004, we thought that Miami, Florida State was going to be a frequent game to decide the ACC title. They put them in opposite divisions so they would wind up playing in the title game. They never actually wound up playing in the title game. Now, Florida State obviously has held up its end of the bargain here. Florida State has won the ACC five times since Miami joined the league. Miami has won it zero times. They have played for the ACC title once, and there was one year where they could have played for it, but they weren't eligible for postseason play. So Miami has not lived up to expectations. But if you look at this Miami roster, so this Miami roster is a great example

of how to build through high school recruiting plus the transfer portal because they haven't just gone into the portal for the big guys they've done a great job recruiting them out of high school like this year you have former five stars francis malinoa and samson okonola who were 2023 signees as one's a sophomore one's a redshirt freshman. They'll be starting on your offensive line. Reuben Bain, probably Miami's best freshman player last year, a terror coming after the quarterback. The big guys, they've done a great job getting those guys out of high school. We know Mario Cristobal can develop talent on the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, they've also added skill players from the portal.

So Cam Ward, obviously the headliner there from Washington State, the quarterback, comes into Shannon Dawson's offense, has played in the air raid his whole career. So Shannon Dawson and he speak the same language. It should be a fairly easy transition for him. Damian Martinez comes from Oregon State, one of the best backs in the country last year. You added Xavier Estrepo, receiver who you've had.

There are options. Miami should be able to score. Defensively, you bring in a guy like Mish Powell. You saw him on the show in the spring. Mish Powell started for Washington in the national title game last year. That guy is going to be able to provide leadership. So Miami has the roster.

They also have the schedule. If you look at the schedule, you're going, this team should go 10-2. Miami has the roster. They also have the schedule. Like, if you look at the schedule, you're going, this team should go 10-2. Like, if this team doesn't go 10-2, something's wrong. So they start off at Florida.

Tough environment. We don't know how good Florida's going to be. They don't have to win that game for this prediction to come true, though. This prediction is they're going to play for the ACC title. They're going to be favored in every one of those games except Florida State. Maybe at Louisville. Maybe they wouldn't be favored there.

If Louisville starts off great. They're going to be favored in most of those games, though. Miami should make the ACC title game. Miami should be flirting with double-digit wins this regular season. Miami should be flirting with a playoff appearance or making the playoff. If they don't, that is a problem. And that is the deal with Mario Cristobal. We saw it at Oregon too. He builds the roster up. The team looks ready to do something special and it doesn't necessarily follow through on that. Now we saw moments. He went to Ohio State and beat them with Oregon. They won the Pac-12. But they were never competitive for national titles.

They should have been. The roster they're building at Miami should be competitive, not just with the best in the ACC, but with everybody. But we've got to see it. We've got to see improvement in the game management. When you need to take a knee, take a knee. Rocky Top Tom says a 500 SEC team would go undefeated with that schedule. Their hardest games are Duke and Florida.

No, their hardest game is Florida State, Rocky Top Tom. Remember Florida State? They went 13-0 last year, won the ACC, going to be the favorite in the ACC again this year. But I'm with you. It's a fairly light schedule. They should be able to handle this. If they don't, panic.

And again, that Miami-Florida game in Gainesville week one, I call it the torches and pitchforks bowl for a reason. The fan base of the team that loses is going to panic. They're going to be off a cliff because they're going to say, if we can't beat those guys, what happens next? But the thing about Miami is if they were to lose that game, they can absolutely still play for the ACC title. You can absolutely still win double-digit games. Florida, different story because their schedule is so much harder.

But Miami got a gift with this ACC schedule. Take advantage of it. You've got the roster. Take advantage of it you've got the roster take advantage of it number six arch manning will start at least one game for texas but quinn ewers will remain qb1 now this would i would prefer not to come true because i do not wish ill on any player. And I certainly don't want Quinn Ewers to get hurt. But the reality is Quinn Ewers missed three games to injury in 2022. He missed two games to injury in 2023. And this is a broader point about how good is your backup quarterback

if you are a team that wants to compete for the national title? Because if you do, it is a long season, a long, long season. So the season Texas wants to compete for the national title because if you do it is a long season a long long season so the season texas wants to have texas wants to play for the sec title wants to win the national title if you make the sec title game and you wind up playing for the national title depending on whether you win or lose the sec title game you were either playing 16 or 17 games you better be comfortable with your backup quarterback situation and that's where Texas comes in because I think they're probably more comfortable than anyone so Quinn Ewers has missed time each of his first two seasons as a starter to injure. If Quinn Ewers goes down,

Steve Sarkeesian seems completely comfortable with Arch Manning coming in and winning games. Now ask yourself this, how many other teams that aspire to win a national title feel that way? Does Alabama feel that way about bringing Ty Simpson in if Jalen Milrow gets hurt? Does Georgia feel that way about bringing Ty Simpson in if Jalen Milrow gets hurt? Does Georgia feel that

way about bringing in Jane Rashada if Carson Beck gets hurt? Ohio State, is it one of the guys who's been on the roster? Is it Julian Sayan, the freshman? Aaron Nolan, the freshman? If something happens with Will Howard. There are so many games if you're trying to win the national title. So how comfortable are you with your backup quarterback situation? And right now, it's hard to have a guy who's been in your system for any length of time, who you feel comfortable with jumping in and starting a game. Now, last year, Malik Murphy was the one who started when Quinn Ewers went down,

Texas barely escaped Kansas state in that game. Barely. That was one of the, one of the games he started last year. So it's interesting. Alex in the chat says, Lagway, that's DJ Lagway. That's Florida's backup quarterback. Yeah, they feel comfortable about him. I'm not sure we're talking about Florida in this conversation. If Florida is in the mix for the national title, we're having a very different conversation about Graham Mertz and or DJ Lagway. But the bigger point is there's not a lot of places where you feel that comfortable. Shane says Devin Brown at Ohio State, and that's probably who it is. You know, Devin Brown was supposed to be the guy who carried them in the bowl game last year.

He gets hurt at the beginning of the bowl game. We never really got to see what he could do. But yeah, Devin Brown is probably the guy if something happens at Ohio State. But Arch Manning feels like the most comfortable you'd be in this situation. Last year, Georgia, I think, would have been comfortable if Brock Vandegrift

had had to come in down the stretch. But now Brock Vandegrift's the starter at Kentucky. the stretch, but now Brock Vandegrift starter at Kentucky. That's why I said, what is it? Is it Jane Rashada now at Georgia? If that's, if that's what happens. So it is going to be just a different situation. Oregon is a good example. So Dylan Gabriel is the starting quarterback at Oregon.

Dante Moore, probably your backup. Ty Thompson was the longtime backup. Now he's gone, went to go find a place he could start. So how comfortable are you with your backup? Because this is going to be a long, long season if you aspire to win a national title. And Texas, I think, feels very comfortable with their quarterback room that if you aspire to win a national title. And Texas, I think, feels very comfortable with their quarterback room that if they need to replace Quinn Ewers for any length of time, they're good with Arch Manning. Prediction number seven, the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner will start the season with a plus 2,000 or larger betting line. So very interesting. The last three seasons, the person who has been in the top three, one of the people in the top

three of the betting favorites for the Heisman Trophy going into the season, I'm not talking about during the season, I'm talking about going into the season. I'm not talking about during the season. I'm talking about going into week one. Somebody who's been in the top three has won the award. We are due for an out of nowhere Heisman Trophy winner. The last one of those was Devontae Smith. And really, you're not going to have a receiver as a favorite because let's be real, that's not who typically wins the award the award typically goes to a quarterback on a good team this year i feel like it's going to be an even more succinct set of criteria quarterback on a team in playoff contention in the last two weeks of the season

so it doesn't necessarily mean you have to make the playoff but you you have to be in the hunt at the end of the season. Your favorites right now. George's Carson Beck. We talked about Quinn Ewers. We talked about Dylan Gabriel. Those are your favorites. Beck is plus 750.

Ewers plus 900. Dylan Gabriel plus 1,000. And then you've got in the plus 1,500 range, you've got Jalen Millroad, Alabama. You've got Jackson Dart, Ole Miss. Jackson Dart's going to put up big numbers this year. That team's probably going to be good. Those are guys that you probably feel like could be in the mix. Will Howard, we mentioned before, he's surrounded by a lot of talent at Ohio State. Great receiver room, great backs. We'll see about the offensive line, but it should be better than last year.

But if you're going to take a 13-1 shot on Will Howard, why not take a 25-1 shot on the guy who forced Will Howard to transfer? So Avery Johnson, plus 2,500 at Kansas State. If Avery Johnson leads Kansas State to a Big 12 title and is as good as we think he might be, absolutely Avery Johnson would be in the mix for the Heisman Trophy. Absolutely. This guy is lightning fast. Now we need to see his arm more. We've seen a small sample size of his arm. A couple of beautiful throws he made last season, but can he be more than a very scary running threat?

Because if he can, then yeah, he could be a competitor for the Heisman Trophy. Also in that plus 2,500 group, Connor Wegman at Texas A&M. Now we're not talking about Texas A&M as a playoff contender, and we don't need to talk about that unless they just come out guns blazing and it turns out they're awesome. But the last time we saw Connor Wegman healthy, Texas A&M's offense was getting better. It felt like things were starting to turn around. And a lot of that was because of Conor Wegman.

We didn't get to see a full season with him. He's got Colin Klein calling the plays for him. That's the guy who called plays for Avery Johnson and Will Howard last year at Kansas State. Definitely a possibility. Or if we're talking about, you know, we mentioned Avery Johnson, who's the reason Will Howard's at Ohio State. How about the reason Dylan Gabriel's at Oregon? Jackson Arnold is plus 3,000 at Oklahoma.

If Oklahoma makes the playoff, Jackson Arnold is going to put up crazy numbers. If Oklahoma is a 10 win team against the schedule they play, Jackson Arnold is going to have a great season. Elias Gray, if God forbid Jalen Daniels can stay healthy. Yes. Kansas quarterback, Jalen Daniels, perhaps the most exciting quarterback in the country to watch just must see TV. But yes, the injury history is not great. I'll give you another one. Plus 3,500 Missouri quarterback, Brady Cook. I said earlier in the show, I'm not worried about Missouri's offense. Brady Cook is throwing to perhaps the best receiver in the country in Luther Burden. Now Luther Burden plus 6,500, if you really want to take a flyer.

But Brady Cook averaged nine yards per attempt last year. I think he's going to throw really well again this year. That's one. Maybe that might be my darkest of the dark horses because Missouri, I mentioned earlier, that schedule definitely lends toward playoff contention if their defense can be replenished. Now, remember, they lost some very good players up front in the secondary.

They lost their defensive coordinator to LSU. But if that defense can be replenished, that's a team that's going to put up numbers on offense and is going to win a lot of games. So plus 3,500 Brady Cook, or maybe you handcuff Brady Cook, Luther Burden, and see if you can get one of those. But I can't wait to see what they look like on offense. And you'll understand why when I get to number nine, but number eight,

Baylor coach Dave Aranda will be this season's version of Neil Brown remember last season every hot seat list started with West Virginia coach Neil Brown it's like this is it he's going to get fired he's done and I remember talking to Neil in the offseason and Neil was very up front about it he's like I get it I know where I'm at. I understand this situation completely. He retook offensive play calling. Neil Brown made his bones as a coach, as an offensive play caller. It's what he's really good at, among other things. I would argue that Neil Brown's been a very good head coach in general at Troy.

And now you've seen what's happened at West Virginia since. Neil Brown knew what he had coming back too. West Virginia was in a situation where it took them a bit to get their NIL house in order, but going into last season and then again going into this season, they've been able to retain a lot of the people that they feel like are critically important to retain. I think that changed the dynamics of things. And I think Neil knew that going into last season and he coached his way off the hot seat. They won nine games last season. They're going into this season with big expectations and Neil is pretty comfortable. He's safe. Dave Aranda, three years removed from a Big 12 title at Baylor. He won the league in 2021, but then they go six and seven. They go three and nine last year,

and he is under fire. They need to improve immediately. What is the one thing Dave Aranda can do really well? How did Dave Aranda make his bones? As a defensive play caller, he's taking over defensive play calling duties again. Dave Aranda will be calling the Baylor defense this year. It's very similar to Neil Brown deciding, I'm going to call the West Virginia offense. Dave Aranda also made a change at offensive coordinator. Jeff Grimes is out. He's now at Kansas replacing Andy Kotelnicki. In comes Jake Spavitol. So Spavitol was the OC at Texas A&M, the OC at West Virginia under Dana Holgerson. He was the head coach at Texas State,

got fired at Texas State, and then went back to Cal where he'd worked for a year under Sonny Dykes at one point. But working for Justin Wilcox at Cal last year, Jake Spavitol made their offense quite a bit better. Now, he comes to Baylor where a lot of the guys are from Texas. They played in offenses very similar to the one he runs in high school. They're going to understand it. They're going to be able to work in it. And it also, unlike the offense Jeff Grimes was running, which is a very wide zone, heavy wide zone is a blocking scheme that requires some very athletic offensive linemen. Spaventel doesn't require you to be dominant in front. Obviously you need good offensive linemen. You're going to be better if you have great offensive linemen.

But if you are not a Georgia, an Alabama, a Texas, an Ohio State, a Michigan, it sometimes helps to have a scheme where you don't have to be dominant up front for it to work. And I think that should help them improve. Daquan Finn is the quarterback they bring in from Toledo. He's a six-year senior. He was the back most valuable player last year at Toledo. He's played a lot of football. This feels like a situation where there's a turnaround, where you go from three and nine to being a bowl team

to you find a trajectory where you feel more confident and you don't have to make a coaching change. And I don't think it's a, it's a coaching change that Mack Rhodes and company Baylor want to make. I think they, they wanted to give Dave Rand another chance, show he can coach his way out of this. He gave them a big 12 title already. I think he can do it. I think he can do exactly what Neil Brown did last year and in this season in a much more comfortable place. Prediction number nine, the most productive tailback duo in the country will likely be at Ohio State. But do not count out a pair of transfers at Missouri. Understandably, a lot of the offseason attention has gone to Travion Henderson and Quinshawn Judkins at Ohio State.

Henderson was already on the roster, and he's awesome. Quinshawn Judkins, very productive back at Ole Miss. He joins the Buckeyes, but do not discount the possibility of this Missouri running back room putting up big numbers. We just talked about Brady Cook and Luther Burton. That duo is going to scare the hell out of defenses. And you've seen what Missouri can do through the air. Again, nine yards per attempt last year for Brady Cook. The offensive line should be just fine. They got Caden Green from Oklahoma. Their left tackle came from SMU, played a bunch of games, and then they've got returning starters.

These guys are going to be able to move the ball. So they lose Cody Schrader. Remember, Cody Schrader was the SEC's leading rusher last year. Cody Schrader is one of the great finds in transfer portal history. He's the guy who wanted to play for Missouri. He wound up walking on after playing at Division II Truman State, earning a scholarship very quickly, and becoming the most productive back in the SEC in his second year at Missouri.

Now Missouri gets a couple of guys out of the portal who are a little more accomplished coming in. And it's kind of a thunder and lightning situation. So your thunder in this case is Marcus Carroll, who was a workhorse back last year at Georgia State. Your lightning is Nate Noel, who was at Appalachian state last year. Now he missed, missed a few games because of injury, but both these guys were very productive. Carol ran for a thousand, 1,350 yards on 274 carries Noel, 834 yards on 173 carries.

I don't know that Carol's going to have to carry as much this year. So you're going to get a fresher version of him probably when he gets the ball. And I just, I really like the way this Missouri offense is put together. Eli Drinkwitz, the coach there, he's a Gus Malzahn disciple. That offense is at its best when they are capable of running between the tackles and then using that to set up the throw game. I think you're going to be pretty impressed watching Missouri run the ball this year. And so these two, they may not be household names, but they were extremely productive at the group of five level. And I think they're going to be highly productive at, at Missouri in this offense. And it's going to make life easier for Brady cook and for Luther burden, who are going to be the, the, probably the stars of that offense. Final prediction, number 10, which actually I'm predicting what will happen at number 12 in the playoff seating.

Liberty will go undefeated, but be left out of the college football playoff. So last year, Liberty went undefeated, was the group of five representative in the New Year's Six Bowls. They went up playing in the Fiesta Bowl, lost to Oregon. You saw Jamie Chadwell had a great script to start that game. They go down the field, they score, but then the talent differential really began to show itself. Go back to that final ranking. Liberty, despite being undefeated, was one spot ahead of SMU, which was your two loss American Athletic Conference champion. I think the committee is going to look at that and go, you know what?

We need to give the team that had the tougher road that might have the better roster the chance to play against the number five seed. Here's why. The number five seed in the playoff is going to be probably the second or third best team in the country. It's probably going to be the second or third best team in the SEC or the Big Ten. They won't be able to be in the top four because they won't be a conference champion. They're going to be a team that can compete for the national title. They're going to be a team capable of winning a national title. It is going to be an uber talented team. It could be Notre Dame. Now, if Notre Dame were going to feed it, they could be the number five seed, but it's going to be a very talented team. My guess is the committee is going to take the team that had the tougher road. So Liberty's toughest opponent this season in conference or out of

conference is an out of conference game at Appalachia state. I think if there's a group of five champ with one or two losses that beat a power conference team, they're going to get the nod. Now I'll give you an example. Miami of Ohio went 11 and three last year. They play Northwestern Cincinnati and Notre Dame. If they only win one of those games

but then run the table in the MAAC, they're going to be in. Boise State won the Mountain West last year. They played Oregon, Washington State, and Oregon State. UNLV, the team that Boise State beat for the Mountain West title last year, they played Kansas, Houston, Syracuse, and Oregon State. Some wins in those games plus a conference championship

probably going to give you the resume that gives you the nod. Jamie Chadwell has done a fabulous job at Liberty. You saw him at Coastal Carolina coaching a team that didn't have the best resources in the league, and he had them at the top of the league. Now he's at the school that has the best resources. The Liberty is so far and ahead, you know, so far and away ahead of the rest of Conference USA when it comes to money and facilities that they're just basically dominating the

weakest FBS conference. So it's not a knock on them, on Jamie Chadwell, on Caden Salter, their quarterback, who's awesome, but their schedule isn't doing them any favors. They needed to play somebody better. They needed to go show they could beat somebody really good or even somebody with a power conference roster. Their best hope right now is they win at Appalachian State and Appalachian State wins the Sun Dump. That's the best hope for Liberty

to make the playoff, but they absolutely have to run the table. And even if they run the table, it's probably still not enough because there's probably going to be a group of five champ that has beaten a power conference team that has a loss, but feels like a better matchup for a team at number five that probably is actually the second or third best team in the country. That's how the system works. We don't know what the committee is going to do yet. We have not seen them having to decide who's going to be in a 12-team playoff.

We've seen them decide who's going to be in a four-team playoff, who's going to be in those New Year's Six Bowls. But I think when you're deciding a New Year's Six Bowl matchup, I think the math's a little bit different than when you're deciding who's going to play in the playoff. We'll find out. That's the beauty of this season. We don't know what's going to happen yet,

but I've given you 10 things that I feel very confident are going to happen. We'll come back at the end of the season and see how well I did. That's it for today's show. Thank you so much big show tomorrow utsa coach jeff trailer will join us he's got a lot changing losing longtime quarterback frank harris now they lost him a little bit for last year so So they've had some practice without him, but big year for him at UTSA. Obviously maybe a candidate if he keeps winning at some other places. We'll talk to him.

And it's also a Dear Andy show. Fourth of July is a holiday. You guys are probably gonna be somewhere else. We have a very special show coming up for you on the 4th. We're gonna actually ask your help in spreading the word on that show. I'm gonna ask all of you regular viewers, regular listeners to forward that show to your friends

who may not be regular viewers, regular listeners who love college football. But we'll talk about that when we get to Thursday's show. Dear Andy, your questions, my answers. You know how much I love these shows. You can ask me on X, Andy underscore Staples, on Instagram, Andy underscore Staples. Or if you have an epic question

or want to send me a video question, you know I love those, andystapleson3 at gmail.com. So send those questions in. We'll get them answered on tomorrow's show. Also, Jeff Traylor from UTSA. And then Thursday, a very special show that you are going to need to send to a lot of your friends. We will talk to you tomorrow.