Andy & Ari On3 - Can a Belichick stop Michigan's run game? | Will Texas A&M reward the linemakers' faith?

Episode Date: September 30, 2024

Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11.Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker,try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. Thank you to Gametime for sponsoring today's episode! Planning your college football travel for this season? Gametime has tickets to every game. (And every concert and comedy show.) Download the Gametime App and enter code: STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Last Minute Tickets, Lowest Prices, Guaranteed. This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES This podcast is sponsored by Huel, H-U-E-L, The World’s #1 Complete Nutrition Brand. ​With over 400 million meals sold worldwide — yes, you heard that right, 400 MILLION — Huel is trusted by millions of people looking to fuel their days with convenient, complete nutrition. Try it for yourself with my exclusive offer for you…. FIFTEEN PERCENT off with the code: STAPLES at HUEL.com. Fuel your best with Huel today!  (0:00-0:36) Wendy's(0:36-5:50) Welcome to Week 6!(5:51-12:08) #15 Clemson at Florida State(12:09-13:44) Sign up for PrizePicks!(13:45-25:54) Syracuse at #25 UNLV(25:55-27:04) Try Huel!(27:05-37:12) #9 Missouri at #25 Texas A&M(37:13-37:58) Download Gametime!(37:59-42:35) #4 Tennessee at Arkansas(42:36-46:55) Iowa at #3 Ohio State(46:56-51:40) Rutgers at Nebraska(51:41-57:37) #10 Michigan at Washington(57:38-1:03:12) #12 Ole Miss at South Carolina(1:03:13-1:07:31) Auburn at #5 Georgia(1:07:32-1:10:28) UCF at Florida(1:10:29-1:14:23) #8 Miami at Cal(1:14:24-1:16:05) Conclusion; See you tomorrow! Happy Monday! Andy and Ari are picking the games of week six. They’re picking… Syracuse at UNLV (-4.5) Total: 57.5 Missouri at Texas A&M (-1.5) Total: 48.5 Ole Miss (-9.5) at South Carolina Total: 51.5 Auburn at Georgia (-23.5) Total: 52.5 Iowa at Ohio State (-20.5) Total: 43.5 Rutgers at Nebraska (-7.5) Total: 43.5 Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas Total: 60.5 Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State Total: 46.5 Michigan at Washington (-2.5) Total: 40.5 UCF at Florida (-1.5) Total: 60.5 Miami (-12.5) at Cal Total: 55.5Want to watch the show instead? Head here! https://youtube.com/live/SRrTQfiBOHo Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

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Wendy's. Welcome to Andy and Ari on. I've gotten a lot of messages from all of you over the last few weeks saying the advertising is working on me. I have been eating a lot of Wendy's saucy nugs and I love them. So there you go. I'm glad. I am glad that you also have discovered the joy of Wendy's saucy nugs. The hot honey barbecue.

If you're in a little sweet and savory mood, or maybe the hot garlic parm, if you're just going savory. Ari, how are we doing this morning? I'm doing really well. A little bit sad that the season is going by as quickly as it is, but love Monday, love getting amped up for the next week, and excited to see your perfect face. It's good to see you. I hope you had a good birthday, Andy. For those who don't know, Andy and my daughter share a birthday. So September 29th is a very special day in my heart. So happy to be here with you and hope you had a good day.

Yeah, I basically watched Red Zone and ate cake. And that's about as good as it gets right there. I had cake for dinner. There was no entree. It was just carrot cake. It was amazing. Me and Nick Saban prefer the greatest cake of all time. And it's producer River's birthday, River. Hope you had a good day. I wish that I could have spent my daughter's birthday the way that you spent yours, but it's a little bit different when it's somebody else's. We put together a toy car that they can drive. Have you seen those?

I don't know what they're called, but there's a pedal. She pushes it. I can control it with a controller, so she feels like she's driving. Oh, it's not Power Wheels, because Power Wheels, the kid actually controls it. I had one of those uh but it was the 80s so you know i think it is i think it's didn't i think it's the new power wheels with safety precautions but i wish you would have been able to have a podcast camera watching me and my father put this thing together on friday night it was a absolute shit show but

i'm happy to be here and it worked and it 18 hours. And she was feeling really good. It was a good day. And, yeah, I'm super excited to get into this week. And, you know, we're about two weeks away from the best day of college football on paper. And you coming to Dallas, too. We got the Red River game. That's two weeks. But, you know, I'm really locked in right now. Well, the thing is, there are no bad college football weekends.

And, by the way, for those who just heard ari talking about putting the car together we will have an off-season segment called ari assembles things that's we're definitely going to do that in the offseason but we were in the thick of the season right now there are no bad college football weekends and when you look at this slate you're like huh what is the headline game this week what is it because it? Because Alabama, Georgia just blew everything off the map last week and actually lived up to the hype. But you also had Kentucky Ole Miss that you didn't see coming. I'm betting there's some didn't see coming in this week of games. Like, there's a few when the Lions came out, I was like,

whoo, I don't know about that. Maybe Missouri, Texas A&M, where Texas A&M is favored. Maybe South Carolina getting nine and a half at home against Ole Miss. Maybe Auburn getting 23 and a half on the road at Georgia. Maybe Washington being favored over Michigan in the strangest national title game rematch ever. Yeah, it could be a good bit, Andy, of like, well, the game here doesn't or the weekend here doesn't have like an Alabama-Georgia game where everybody knows what time to be locked in on the TV and when.

You know, right? So the bit should be try to spot the thing that's going to make our jaw drop because it's not like we're going to get through Saturday and it's just going to be chalk everywhere and everything that we expect happens. Like Somebody's going to lose. Something's going to happen. Who's the Ole Miss Kentucky game this week? Could it be Ole Miss South Carolina? It could be again. Rutgers-Nebraska, I think, is going to be

a fun one. We've got Ohio State-Iowa. Maybe something crazy could happen there. UCF-Florida is one we got ohio state iowa you know maybe something could happen there ucf florida's one we kind of circled a couple of weeks ago i'm actually a little we'll get to it we'll pick the game but i'm a little more confident in the gators that i was two or three weeks ago about this game but yeah this is going to be there will be something that when we convene, and I believe I'll be in the Ben Hill Griffin Stadium press box on Saturday night when we convene after the games. And it could be very, very strange because we haven't gotten,

well, I mean, we did. We got a 17.5 point favorite winning last week. So will we get a three touchdown, or 17.5 point underdog, excuse me, we did. We got a 17.5-point favorite winning last week. So will we get a three-touchdown – or 17.5-point underdog, excuse me, winning last week? Will we get a three-touchdown underdog that wins the game? Okay, I'm going to throw one out there that's going to go a little haywire. Are you ready? I'm ready.

This one, get locked in for. Are we going to get some Florida State Clemson grab ass, Andy? Like, is there – Okay. I think a spread there is 14 and a half. Throw it on the screen, throw it on the screen. Clemson at Florida state. Let's pick it right now. Florida state is more than a true touchdown underdog at home.

And if you told me that in August, I would have said you were insane. If you told me that after the Clemson-Georgia game, before the Florida State-Boston College game, I still thought you were insane. Now I don't think that's enough. Yeah, so here's the thing. There's two lines of thought. And I think I know which way you're headed and I know which way I think I'm leaning but is Florida State just a pulseless dead being now or at home in a season

where everybody has basically forgotten about them they got their butts kicked against SMU this weekend and we didn't even talk about it on the show so that's where we're at with Florida state. Like, is there a dead cat bounce? Like, is there a chance that this team can put together its best fourth quarter, four quarters of the game of the year at home against the team that we have gone the exact opposite way with, which was leaving Clemson for dead at the beginning of the year and coming all the way back around and saying that this team can win the ACC and potentially win a playoff game or two. Like, is this game just exactly what we think it is? Resurgent Clemson going into Tallahassee against a team that is flat, fans are checked out, or do we feel like there's a chance of fireworks here?

I have no clue. I have no idea. Look, the last 10 years of ACC play have told us that Clemson gets everybody's best shot in the ACC. And Florida State, not an elite ACC team this year. So they are in the category of the team that would play its best game against Clemson. And obviously this is DJU against Clemson there's a lot going on I think it's going to be DJ you he hit his he hit his hand on something in the game at SMU that's why he got replaced by Brock Glenn it probably was performance related too but when we saw Brock Glenn in that

SMU game was pretty ugly too which I think tells us why DJ you is still Florida State starting quarterback or has still been Florida State's starting quarterback. It doesn't feel like they think Luke Krohmanhauk is ready, the freshman from Georgia. I don't know what they do. DJU ain't it and hasn't been it since he's been there. Does he suddenly morph into, I will say, the best DJU has ever played in college the best single best game he's ever had was in tallahassee playing for clemson against florida state two

years ago that's the best game he's ever played in college does does that come back? Like one magical miracle game. That's the only way Florida State even covers the spread, much less wins. Yeah, well, the thing with Florida State is that what was the analysis, and I know it feels like ancient history now, but what was the analysis that we had before the year of like this team could be an acc favorite like because i don't even know

which players you point to on this florida state team and go this guy can can wreck the game again that's the thing we've got their d line like you thought their d line would wreck the game and they haven't like daryl jackson and uh farmer and marvin jones jr pat Patrick Payton. You thought those were the guys that were going to wreck the game, and they haven't wrecked anything. So that's the part. And look, I don't foresee them doing that against a suddenly very confident Cade Klubnick either. Yeah.

Because Clemson's figured out a way to move him around, use that mobility. He's very fast. He is. Did we know he was this fast did anybody know he was this somebody had to know he was this fast but he's very fast and they figured out how to use that yeah uh you know my gut feeling here is that clemson is going to cover the spread right but you know maybe the beauty of this whole uh grab ass scenario is is that you're not supposed to be able to predict it because like I'm trying to come up with a scenario here where like, what does it look like if Florida State is down by a score or winning in the third quarter? Like, what does that look like? Is that turnovers from Clemson? Is that their defensive line playing really well as a DJU turning into something that I'm tired of waiting for him to turn into like I don't I don't know if I'm even want to play that game of like it can DJ you be DJ you it's like I think DJ you is who he is at this point so um you know that's what makes college

football chaotic and maybe it's just the unpredictable the unforeseeable happening that makes it so pretty yeah and this is this is a week that's kind of designed for chaos i just i don't know if we're getting the chaos in this game because florida state like the one thing you say about florida state is even really consistent like consistently bad the the best game they've played was cal which i would say was a great defensive game for them was not a particularly great offensive game for them. So I guess if the defense plays the way it did against Cal, perhaps the score is held down a bit. But again, this is going to be the best defense Florida State has played, and they've done nothing to show you that they can move the ball against a good defense.

Not a single thing. So I'm going to take Clemson to cover here. Yeah, I think I am too. But I certainly feel like this is about as interesting of a Florida State game as we'll get for the rest of the year. So if you have any desire to watch this team or just out of morbid curiosity to see if there is a pulse there, like this on paper was going to be one of the games of the year,

like this we thought was going to be the game that we were talking about for 30 minutes on the show. You know what I mean? Like a month ago. So yeah, I'm definitely going to lock in and watch this. I think Clemson is also going to cover the spread. I don't know that I believe that Florida State can get a first down or do anything functionally.

But if there is a, oh my God, I can't believe this thing happened on the weekend that we're not seeing coming. This kind of strikes me as the type of game that could fit that mold. Rod Smith, the chat. Can we hear about Syracuse at UNLV please? Yes, we can. Of course. But first we've got to talk about prize picks. Download that app, use the code staples, play $5, get $50 instantly. How does prize picks work? Well, you're picking squares. So you've got a player and they've got a number attached to them. We talked a lot about the Miami Virginia Tech game last week relative to prize picks. And I'm telling you, the folks at prize picks hit that nail on the head because what did we tell you? Miami may win this thing,

but they're not going to run for much, but they're going to throw for a lot. And they got the Damian. The Damian Martinez number was 61 and a half. He gained 60 yards. The Cam Ward number was 314 and a half. He threw for 343. His demon square was 349. So they were just right on it the whole way. So a lot of fun. Now, the college football board has not yet been populated

for this week. It will start to get populated as the week goes on. So check back Monday night, Tuesday morning, or start to see some college football stuff that UNLV Syracuse game that we're about to talk about will be one of the first ones to hit. So maybe your first Haj Malik Williams square, but two Monday night football games tonight. They also have the NFL. Let's not forget. So you've got the Titans and the Dolphins. You've got the Lions and the Seahawks. So maybe you got some strong thoughts about Jared Goff. Maybe you got some strong thoughts about Snoop Huntley starting for the Dolphins.

Go to PrizePix. Use the code Staples. Play $5, get $50 instantly. All right, let us move to Las Vegas. We talked all about UNLV last week off the field. UNLV goes on the field. Haj Malik Williams makes his first starter quarterback, replacing Sluka Doncic, Matthew Sluka, who peaced out last week. And UNLV played its best game of the season. Three-phase win. They were awesome. Haj Malik Williams was incredible throwing the

ball. Well, efficient throwing theik Williams was incredible throwing the ball. Well, efficient throwing the ball. Very good running the ball. Ricky White III, their star receiver, suddenly, whoop, he's back because somebody's throwing him the ball. UNLV is a four-and-a-half-point favorite against Syracuse and Kyle McCord, who's been lighting stuff up this year. What you got in this game, Ari?

Okay, Andy, before we break down the game, can you walk me through just how to feel about something when it comes to UNLV? So now that we have more context of what happened with Sluka, what is your take on his decision now? Well, I said it last week, and I stand by it. They overplayed their hand. They did not realize how close he was to not being the starting quarterback at UNLV. Or maybe they did.

Maybe they thought he was going to get benched. But either way, Haj Malik Williams is probably the better quarterback for this team, this offensive system, whatever it is. And that was not the time to make a leverage play unless they just thought he was getting benched. So the more I think about it, and based on all the stuff that Pete Nacos gathered

and you saw in the different stories and talking to some folks there i think if i wanted to assign blame in all of this whole situation i'm gonna put the bulk of it on matthew sluka's agent who blew it pretty much for months like should have gotten something in writing should have negotiated earlier should have understood how the rules worked, and should have had a better sense of what the situation was in the locker room. Missed on all fronts.

Missed on all of them. So Matthew Sluka is going to look bad in this. Because if Hajimeleek Williams comes out on Friday night and balls out the way he did on Saturday, when Matthew Sluka starts going to these other teams, they're going to be like, Whoa, wait, maybe we should just go for the other guy. Andy, because the reason why I ask you that is that I'm having a hard time in terms of how to view the player, Sluka himself, but I do feel like it's moderately amusing that UNLV has now become

America's sweetheart when really what happened here was that a player thought he was getting something, whether he got to that idea or not through dysfunction or not. And UNLV did not deliver on the thing that the player thought they were going to deliver on.

Just saying that alone, it's like, why is UNLV now the team that everybody in the country is rooting for? And now Sluka's at home and probably dying a slow death looking at Twitter and seeing Hajmalik Williams play. And it's just such an interesting scenario because it would be so easy to dislike UNLV for promising something that the player never received. But on the other hand, like this has galvanized the entire college football world into rooting for this pesky group of five team in Las Vegas who legitimately has a chance to make the playoff now. It is kind of like a weird watch. They are, yeah. But it's just kind of like a weird dynamic because like you would think that you know if either the player was the villain or the team is the villain and

actually it turns out that i don't know that anybody's actually the villain but unlv has become like the the team that everybody is is rooting for and watching as a result of something that was pretty dysfunctional i go back to to the Jaden Rashada situation with Florida. What do we have in common? What are the biggest NIL, I don't know if scandal is the right word, but the biggest NIL mess-up stories have in common? Everybody's stupid. Everybody involved has no idea what they're doing like that's that's the the common threat

like an assistant coach offering money he wasn't authorized to author an agent blowing it at every possible juncture a player either taking bad advice from the agent or just not understanding his own situation like all of it everybody messed up yeah and i guess that's kind of what happens when you're in an unprecedented time with people who aren't qualified to to broker i mean the fact that nothing was put in writing strikes me as something that like a mistake that a 10 year old would make like i have no idea how you could even get to the point where nothing was like i wouldn't even this is why i lump all the blame on the, or the bulk of the blame on the agent.

Like that. I wouldn't even have a couch delivered to my house without getting paperwork signed. Like, I mean, like it's like, like when you're talking about any amount of money, that's important figure,

like you're writing it down. So, uh, that, that bizarre. So, okay. Do you want to talk about the game?

I just think it's crazy. Like I'm, I find myself and I found myself rooting for UNLV on Saturday. And you want to know what the actual root of the reason why that is, Andy? Yeah. Is that there are a lot of players on that football team that have nothing to do with this. There are a lot of people who want to make the playoff and to do something that UNLV has never done that are kind of caught in the crossfire of this mess up.

And I can't think about, or I can't help but think about the left guard on UNLV's team or the backup linebacker who plays 10 snaps a game. How about Ricky White III, who's a legitimate NFL player, who had a chance to go anywhere he wanted to this offseason who stayed at UNLV for a special season what was not getting the ball like he did drop a pass in the Kansas game but he had I want to say it was something like four catches for for 15 yards in their two FBS wins prior to to Saturday and then he breaks out Saturday. Like, I don't – that guy didn't do anything to deserve what was going on and what happened there. I can't help but feel bad for Matthew Sluka because, you know, he probably is in a world of pain right now.

But I am finding myself rooting for UNLV. Like I am rooting for them to continue this run. And I think it would be a really cool story at the end of the year, um, to have a UNLV team represented that I think has never been ranked before. Right. Didn't they say that this is the highest ranking they've ever had? And yes, you know, a community that I think has, uh, some good fans. Like, I don't know. I, I don't want Matthew Sluka to be in pain, but I also want the players who came to UNLV and returned to UNLV and believed and bought into UNLV that they can make a run in the G5 this year to be able to make that run. So, and the other thing too, is that they are playing a team this weekend, Andy, that

was also an american sweetheart like right like people love fran brown people were rooting for kyle mccord i think people are rooting for a team in the acc i mean like if you if syracuse would have just held on to their one loss you know instead of blowing it in the last 10 seconds of the game they'd be undefeated in this game when the game of the weekend. Barry Odom, on one hand, selling his team about making the playoff before the year started, having two P4 wins already, and then playing

a third one in the first five weeks of the season undefeated is an amazing story. But what about Syracuse? They just flipped a commit from Florida too on Sunday. I don't know if you saw that. A top 250 player, I think. Fran Brown's got some things cooking up there as well yeah now he needs to bracket lko manor if that ever happens

again i think that the shine came off a little bit when they left him left him single covered in crunch time but that's okay that's gonna happen first time head coach first time coordinators that happens but yes syracuse one of the great stories there uh michael brown in the chat going back to the sluka story but aren't there rules against getting certain things quote unquote in writing when it comes to nil a lot of this is so murky so complicated it's actually not michael see i understand that you don't know because it's not your job to know but matthew sluka's agent's job is to know that yes you can get things in writing even before you enroll because there was a big federal court case about it. And so again, not your responsibility to know that very much as agent's responsibility to know that. So this, this game, I think comes down to, you know, we we've talked about, you know,

these offense a ton, the go-go offense and what Hajj Malik Williams can bring to it. But UNLV's defense has been very good this year. They're, they're giving up 4.8 yards of play. It's, it's kind of middle of the, it's like number 37 in the country, but they're very opportunistic. They had a pick six in this last game. They actually had a great special teams touchdown in the last game too, where they blocked the punt and returned it for a touchdown. So this is a very complete team. And I think that's so we get caught up in the offense because it's so fun to watch the Brennan Marion go go offense. But Barry Odom is a really good defensive coach and they put a good defense on the field.

And so the question is, can they slow down? Kyle McCord, which we put up a comment in the chat like I can't believe I'm betting on Kyle McCord or I'm about to bet on Kyle McCord. But Kyle McCord's been lighting it up this year, Ari. Yeah. I think this is kind of a prove-it game for both teams. And honestly, I think I'm comfortable saying that it's one of the top three teams or games

that have teams that are most interesting to me this week because UNLV has been a fixture in the bubble watch and in bracketology the last few weeks. They've been the center of one of the biggest NIL stories that we've seen in the past few months, and they're actually really, really good and have an NFL receiver, like you pointed out. So I also am not sure that we're ready to give up on Syracuse yet, right?

They've had a pretty good year so far. And had they not had one weird defensive call that cost them a game, they'd be undefeated. So, you know, I think, but I think this would be a quality win for UNLV in the continued march to being the highest ranked G5 champion. Like this is an important game for them. Absolutely. It is very, very important.

Great appetizer. By the way, also on Friday night, you got Michigan State-Oregon. I'm not picking that one because it's another massive spread. I think it's one of those that Oregon probably can cover. I don't expect that game. I'm saying it now. I don't expect that game to be all that interesting and watch it be the most interesting game of the weekend because andy one of those will be it is friday night so you know what happens on friday night we're great example and we did not mention this game at all of like the grab ass game of the week but like we're not picking it i think oregon's gonna win by 100 right i thought miami was gonna win by 100 last friday like it would not shock me if i am on a date with my wife on friday because that's what we're gonna

try to do this year because i don't see her on sun on saturdays um and i'm looking down at the phone and it's like oh boy michigan state's winning in the third quarter like like are we past the oregon scares me portion of the year like Like, are we into full Oregon? That's star mode. I think, I think, but for, Hey, Ari,

first bad, bad pick show hosts. We do need to put our picks in. Yeah. For series. Yes. You and LV. I believe you and LV is going to cover. Yeah.

I think that you and LV has got this angels in the outfield thing going right now where it's just like, everybody's rooting for him. Everybody's pulling for them. They're feeling good. Also to some swaggy post game comments after blowing out Fresno going right now, where it's just like everybody's rooting for them, everybody's pulling for them. They're feeling good. Also, too, some swaggy post-game comments after blowing out Fresno State on Saturday. Like, people are feeling

themselves. I think that UNLV is going to cover the spread, too. Alright. We're headed to the SEC next, but first I'm going to tell you a little bit about Huel, which is my breakfast this morning.

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complete nutrition. Huel.com, that's H-U-E-L.com. Use that code STAPLES for 15 for 15 off ari let us now move to college station where vegas has loved the aggies all season and they'd certainly love the aggies now so this spread missouri's going to texas a&m texas a&m opened as a one and a half point favorite that moved to two and a half on sunday night back to one and a half point favorite that moved to two and a half on Sunday night back to one and a half on Monday morning but at this point I'm not surprised that A&M's favored because Vegas has felt this way about A&M all year they favored them against Notre Dame you know favored him going to Florida which obviously you know I don't think Vegas knew what Florida was at that point but how do we feel about this? Because Texas A&M gutted out a win against Arkansas.

I thought it was a good win. I thought it was a very good win against Arkansas. The last time we saw Missouri, they were getting pushed to overtime by Vanderbilt, but they have had a week off to kind of figure some things out. Yeah. Yeah. Missouri was supposed to be a team that was competitive in the SEC this year, right? Like a team that you thought in theory could have even pushed some people with their schedule to potentially make it to Atlanta, right?

Like I'm not overstating that, right? No, not at all. And then you watch the games on Saturday night, especially the Alabama-Georgia game, and then you compare it to what you've seen from Mizzou this year, and it looks like those two teams are playing a different sport. I think you can say that a lot about games that you watch. For instance, I saw Notreame beat writers posting that same sentiment like when you start talking about the top tier of college football and then you start comparing it

to the second tier a lot of times you feel that way but like i don't know if i'm there with mizzou yet they've gotten some easy wins but they struggled a little bit against boston college when we were together they almost lost to vanderbilt in overtime like going into texas a&m a team that that feels really good about itself right now and might have found some things like i don't know that this is a particularly advantageous spot for mizzou at this point like i think getting out of there with a win would be a massive win for them and i don't know if i feel confident they're going to be able to do it i know they've got luther burden i know brady cook i know their offense is pretty good. I think

that they should be able to stop Texas A&M to a certain extent, but I don't know if I look at this and go, wow, Mizzou, a team that we had in the top 10, even if Texas A&M is this 8-4 team that everybody makes fun of them for, going into Kyle Field

playing an 8-4 team isn't a layup win for Mizzou right now until they prove it. The other thing is, Texas A&M need to beat Mizzou to an 8-4 team isn't a layup win for Mizzou right now until they prove it. The other thing is Texas A&M need to beat Mizzou to be 8-4 if you look at Texas A&M's schedule. So if Texas A&M's an 8-4 team, they might have to win this game to get there. So let's not forget that part of it. And Producer River, throw Mizzou's schedule back up on the screen because I want people to look at this. mizzou has to win this game because auburn at alabama oklahoma at south carolina at

mississippi state arkansas like at mississippi state i'm not that worried about everything else I would worry about. Every single other one of those games is losable for Missouri. So it's not going to be easy. And I think that's the part that we're now understanding. I think Ole Miss Kentucky helped us understand that. It's not easy. There's no easy. But I think that what you just said there is revelatory because that is by far the easiest SEC schedule.

And if we're in week five or six, we're going into week six. God, we're going into week six. And you think that Mizzou is going to struggle with a lot of the teams on their schedule. We looked at that schedule before the year and thought Mizzou was unquestionably better than all the teams on their schedule except Alabama and maybe Oklahoma. And the context of those games has changed dramatically in terms of they could lose to Alabama and still make the SEC championship. And it's like, now are we

in the place where we are with Mizzou, where it's like, can they beat South Carolina? Is that where we are with this team? That's where we are. Well, because we're going to get to Ole Miss-South Carolina in a few minutes, or maybe next. And are you sure Ole Miss can beat South Carolina? Well, Ole Miss has had a pretty horrific loss,

and I don't think that Mizzou has done that yet. You went to overtime with Vanderbilt. They did. They did. So this is where we're at. So you think Mizzou and Ole Miss are in the same bucket of questionable right now? Yes, because they were in the same bucket the whole time. Or at least we thought they were.

I know, but I think that they veered this weekend a little bit. One was off. Winning a clunker is not the same thing as losing to Kentucky, right? We're not going to sit here in a crown like Kentucky is the top three team in the SEC all of a sudden. They lost to Kentucky. If a kick goes a different direction, they lose to

Vanderbilt. Losing to Vanderbilt is worse than losing to kentucky but they that extended the game that wasn't a game-winning kick weren't they losing when they well there were other plays in the game it it ended tied there were other opportunities for vandy to score points in regulation so yeah yeah i don't know uh i don't know if i'm as down on mizzou as i am on old miss although i think that old miss is probably better than mizzou which i find that interesting three-point home loss to kentucky and and being tied with vanderbilt at home at the end of regulation i look at those as basically the same thing well the thing i think is the reason why i feel differently is because i thought coming into the year that old miss was

much better than mizzou so the the, the fall from grace, I think was further for me than it would be for Mizzou. So I think a lot of the, the Mizzou could win the sec or make the playoff discussion for me. And he was more predicated on the lack of challenges on a schedule. Like if you want to talk about a time to go in on to go in on NIL and taking your shot at the window, this is every bit of a window for Mizzou as it was for Ole Miss. So Ole Miss just went out and got more players. But Ole Miss, to me, I thought had a legitimate chance of potentially even winning the national title this year.

That's where I was with Ole Miss. I don't think I was ever there with Mizzou. Well, the good news for Mizzizzou they're still undefeated and if the vandy game was the anomaly as as one of our folks in the chat suggested then this will be fine so i'm gonna pick mizzou here i'm gonna tell you if you're gonna give me points i'm gonna take mizzou because I do think both these teams can run the ball. Nate Noel has been fantastic for Mizzou so far. He's averaging 6.4 yards a carry. We know with Marcel Harris starting at quarterback at Texas A&M, they're going to be

very heavy on the ground, but Luther Burden is the one thing that Texas A&M does not have and may not have an answer for. So I'm going to go with Mizzou here. Yeah, and I think Mizzou might be able to drag them into the type of game that they were in with Notre Dame, right? And, like, Texas A&M has a long way to go, I think, before they can start to claim or be favored in situations where they win those tough, gutted-out games in the fourth quarter. You know, like, they've done a pretty good job in the time since they lost to Notre Dame,

but do you feel like A&M is above doing what A&M has typically done the last few years, which is play good, close games, and then not close it? I'm going to take Mizzou here, too. I think Mizzou is a team that's explosive enough to put some points on the board. I think that they're going to give up some rushing yards. I think that A&M is a really tough physical team, and I think it's going to be some points on the board. I think that they're going to give up some rushing yards. I think that A&M is a really tough physical team. And I think it's going to be a game in the third and fourth quarter. But I don't know that I trust Texas A&M to win those games yet.

No, now it's a different administration. This is not a Jimbo team. But yeah, I'm taking Missouri here. Texas A&M needs to prove otherwise. Now, if Texas A&M gets dragged into that kind of game and wins it, we can have the discussion about how different is Texas A&M under Mike Elko. I think that's the... In fairness, it is important that I point out that A&M did just win a game

like that against Arkansas this weekend. They did play a close game against a team that i think is underrated i think you agree with me with arkansas like they people view them as they stink i don't think they stink so a and m has done that so like if a and m is in a position to beat mizzou this weekend i think that would be a huge lift to their program i think mike elko could be the mayor of texas if he does the mayor of college station if he does that ste I was going to say, Steve Sarkeesian probably has a good chance at a bigger office in Texas right now. But when you think about it, though, Andy,

the things that have ailed A&M for as long as they've ailed them, it kind of felt very Jimbo-y the way they lost to Notre Dame. So for them to get off onto a better tangent, you know what? It hit me. I'm changing my pick. I'm going A&M. Yeah, I'm going A&M. It is a different administration.

A&M is at home. They play a tough physical brand of football, and they have a head coach who has won a close game against a tough SEC opponent. Why not A&M i i understand your your reasoning i just i'm gonna go with missouri for the reasons i said i think these teams are actually pretty similar in terms of how how well they play on the ground i just think luther burton is the part that a and m had like i said does not have and does not have an answer for. So we'll see.

But I think this is gonna be a great game. I can't wait to watch it. I'm very excited for that one. Would you like to go to the Missouri Texas A&M game? You can get tickets. Yeah, it's sold out, but game time has tickets for everything. So you want to, you want to go to Missouri A&M? Do you want to go to Auburn, Georgia? Do you want to go to Iowa, Ohio state? Game time has the ticket. Maybe you want to go to Missouri A&M? Do you want to go to Auburn, Georgia? Do you want to go to Iowa, Ohio State? Game time has the ticket. Maybe you want to go sailgating in Washington and watch the Michigan-Washington game. Go to game time, download the app, redeem the code STAPLES to get $20 off your first purchase.

Terms apply, of course, but they have tickets to everything. Use the GT Picks feature and it shows you the best seats, best prices relative to the market. You know, you won't be waiting through a bunch of stuff. You won't have to worry about whether you're getting the best deal. You are getting the best deal with game time. Redeem that code staples 20 bucks off your first purchase terms apply. Ari, let us move. Well, let's stay in the SEC for now. Tennessee going to Arkansas. When last we saw the Vols, they were actually fairly close to Fayetteville. They were in Norman winning big game.

We said this is a huge, you know, monumental watershed type event for Josh Heifel and his program. Now Tennessee goes to Arkansas as a 13 and a half point favorite. The ghosts of Clint Sterner. And I say Clint Sterner still alive he hosts a radio show in Houston but he had that fumble in 1998 that that saved Tennessee's national title season because Arkansas pushed that Tennessee team to the to the brink can this Arkansas team pull the is this the game that drops our jaw? Andy, here is the question for you from the chat. Run with it. This one right here. From Nate Lovell.

Is Tennessee more like Bama and Georgia or more like Ole Miss? Wow, what a question. That's Nat Lovell. Nat, the question of the week. Wow, because this game would answer that. Like if they're like Bama or Georgia, they cover this spread. They make this look easy. If they are not, this will be hard.

Well, what do you think? Because I left Oklahoma really impressed last weekend or two weekends ago. I think that Tennessee is good enough to win or to be in the mix to win the national championship this year. But I don't know if you feel the same way. And I think I'm probably going to write a column about this when we're done here for today but did watching Georgia and Alabama play the game that they played change your perspective on the rest of the sport like I think there's only one other team that I've watched so far this year that I think could have hung in that game Ohio State so you you just discovered that Georgia and Alabama have better players than everybody

like no no it was on the year of our lord 2024 you know andy you know how i am uh you know who i am i uh i know what talent like i've it killed me last year what do you think like i'm like this is new to me like but i'm saying, do you think Tennessee is built to exist and win in a game like that? I think they're building that way. Like, when you have a commitment from the number one offensive tackle prospect in the country, you're working on building that way.

Does Tennessee have a top-to-bottom roster that matches up with Alabama and Georgia? Not yet. Does Tennessee's first 22 match up with Alabama and Georgia? Not yet. Does Tennessee's first 22 match up with Alabama and Georgia? They're getting close. They're pretty close. And I think that's the thing. This game will challenge Tennessee's defense. We liked what we saw out of Tennessee's defense against Oklahoma, but Oklahoma had a ton of injuries at wide receiver. We're not sure about their offensive line. Talon Green has been a very dynamic quarterback. Jaquinden Jackson is a great running back. They've got some good receivers and Bobby Petrino is an excellent play

caller. This will test Tennessee's defense. If Tennessee's defense shuts down Arkansas's offense, then I think we should feel pretty good about Tennessee going forward. I'm going to take Tennessee to cover here, Ari. Yeah, I'm not going to get off the Tennessee bandwagon because we haven't seen them play in two weeks. I think that when you look at the defensive line, I think Pierce is going to be potentially the number one overall pick in the draft this year.

I love the growth that Nico has had. I think that the bye week came at a perfect time for Tennessee to kind of decompress from that emotional win. I think Arkansas is a very good football team, and I don't know that I believe that Tennessee is going to humiliate them, but I do think that a 40-20, 44-20 type game or 39-20 type game, comfortable cover of a 14.5 point spread, I think, is what I think, but I don't think it's going to be an absolute annihilation.

If it is, then Tennessee's – I mean, I've got them number three, man. So, like, I mean, I'm talking about the team that I think is one of the best teams in college football, and, you know, I wrote a column off of the Oklahoma game that this team is in a position to do things that is not – that they weren't built to do two years ago with the Hendon Hooker team like I truly believe that so that's where I'm at all right so we've both taken Tennessee to cover let's move out of the SEC for a minute let's go to the Big Ten there's some very intriguing Big Ten games now we always pick

the Iowa total but this one we're picking the spread to. We were talking about this before the show. This is the first Ohio State game we're picking this year. This is the first time an Ohio State game has been interesting enough to pick. Now, we were going to pick it no matter what because we always pick the Iowa total. This is still a 20.5 point spread. Do we have any doubt that

Ohio State's going to cover here? None. I don't really have any doubt that Ohio, that Ohio state's going to cover here? None. I don't really have any either. Oh, it is funny though, that you, you brought that the, the Ohio state Homer onto the podcast and we by and large,

basically ignored them for six weeks. So like, I'm happy to, to finally be able to flourish and reveal myself to you. Go box right now. The, Happy to finally be able to flourish and reveal myself to you. Go Bucs. Right? No. This is the thing with this game that I think is true. And you can save me from this. But I think even last year's Iowa team, there is a certain type of team that Iowa is built to contain.

There's a certain type of team that Iowa is built to stop. It's called Minnesota. There's a certain type of team that Iowa is built to play field position football. It's called Illinois. They look awesome, and it's fun to talk about, and all the things that you discover

along the way with Iowa's football team. But the second they play a team that has athletes at a level that Ohio State has, they are not built to compete in that environment. So I think Iowa's offense is marginally better than it was a year ago. I don't think they're built to face what I think might be the best defense in college football. And I don't think there's any possible way that they're going to be holding Ohio State to 21 points. So tell me what the pathway here looks like for Iowa keeping this game within 20.

I mean, long, sustained Ohio State drives. If they can stop Ohio State from breaking off 70-yard touchdowns and making them earn every score, they don't turn the ball over, they punt well, I guess. But at a certain point, even in a close game in the first half, the dam is probably going to break here because it always does when they play these games. Yeah, here's the thing.

Iowa's offense is better this year. Their defense is worse. It doesn't mean it's bad. It just means it's worse than the ultra elite level that it's been the last couple of years. So, yeah, I take Ohio State to cover. Iowa may score on them a little bit. Yeah, I'm going to take the over here.

Ohio State has given up some defensive plays that make you scratch your head this year. But, like, it's just not a – when was the last time these two teams played? In 2022 when they were – when Iowa's defense was still really, really good two years ago. No, they played in the Big Ten Championship game. Oh, yeah. They did last year?

Yeah. No, they didn't. Ohio State didn't play in the big 10 championship game oh yeah they did last year yeah no they didn't ohio state didn't play in the big 10 championship game last year they played michigan oh yeah they played michigan i'm sorry uh i forgot what year we're in so you're right yeah and he was like 10 years of muscle memory is not gone yet in the big 10 championship game anymore my bad uh but you could actually use use the Michigan game as an example of what I was going to say. They lost 26-0 and couldn't score. I think they are much better

offensively, but I don't know if they're better enough to anticipate they're going to go score 21 points on this team. Ohio State's defense is nasty. I think that might be a close game. If you want to bet Iowa, maybe do it for the first half, you know, for the first few quarters, and then I think Ohio State's going to, you know,

win something like 42 to 14 or something like that. Michael Brown, Ohio State 30, Iowa 14, which, of course, would put it just under. The total is 44.5. And the cover. It went up. It went up a day, one half a point. Or it went up maybe one point since it opened.

Because Vegas has figured out that Iowa is now an offensive juggernaut, or at least a little bit better on offense. But also, too, it's 1,000% in the realm of possibility that Ohio State could cover this over-under by itself. Absolutely. And that's the other reason why I'm going over. Ari, what do you got over or under? I think over. I think Ohio State's going to score a lot, and I think Iowa might score a little.

Let's go to a game where I don't think anybody's going to score a lot. Rutgers headed to Nebraska. Nebraska had their get-right game against against Purdue and it took a half had a zero zero score at halftime, but at the end of winning 28 to 10 Rutgers, meanwhile, beat Washington on a Friday night. Very fun game to watch, but this game I think is going to be a slobber docker. The total is 43 and a half. I'm on will take the under there nebraska is a seven and a half point favorite that feels like a lot of points in a game that's not going to have a lot of points do we have to sit down and talk about rutgers in indiana at some point like i don't know like

rutgers is a undefeated team and the last time they were undefeated I think was the 2012 season under Greg Shiano where they won the Big East or whatever. It's been 12 years since that happened. I was very high on Nebraska and Dylan Rayola three weeks ago and they had their Friday night

debacle and I don't know how much that changed Andy. I don't know that i think that nebraska all of a sudden is the old version of itself i think it lost a game to a tough team now we learned a little bit more about illinois this week too i thought they hung in there pretty well with penn state though they're not the same class i don't know that we thought that nebraska would be in the same class but that doesn't mean that i don't think nebraska can beat rutgers right like rutgers has one of the best running backs in college football pounds it out will be able to

control clock if you don't there's going to be a lot of points in this game i think the game will be in question in the second half um i think that getting two scores for rutgers feels pretty comfortably but i i think that nebraska is probably going to win this game yeah that's this is what i'm trying to figure out is how close this thing is. I think we are sweating this thing out in the fourth quarter. I think, you know, it cause Rutgers defensively, I have a lot of faith in them.

Common on guy. He's the question is, can, can they get him going against the interior of that Nebraska defense? Because this is the best interior defensive line that Rutgers may see because Rutgers doesn't play Michigan. So do those big guys in the middle just blow things up and make it hard for Rutgers to move the ball at all? Because I think that does change the math on it. Because I do think Dylan Riola is going to be able to hit some things down the field.

Nebraska may be able to hit a big play or two. I don't know if Rutgers is going to hit any big plays, if they're going to have any explosives or they're going to have to just grind it out the whole way. Well, Rutgers is a smash mouth, grind it out team. I think that that works.

But Nebraska can do that too. That's the problem. What I was going to say was that when that's who you are, Nebraska's not a great style make-fight game for you. You have to have some sort of explosiveness, some ability to create some plays in the passing attack, and I just think that Nebraska has an extra element there, especially at the quarterback position, to get that done.

I don't know that they're going to win by two scores, though, Andy. Right. I think I like Rutgers to cover the game, but I think Nebraska to win. I'm going to take Nebraska here because I'm going to go all in on what we've been saying. This is not the old Nebraska. This is the old Nebraska. This is definitely a one-score game.

Regardless of who wins wins it's a one score game but i'm gonna say nebraska not the old nebraska figures out a way to pull away and i don't mean pull away by a lot because again i don't think the old nebraska is losing this game well yeah losing this game by missing a field goal at the end or by just some sort of crippling turnover that allows Rutgers to punch in the game-winning score. Yeah, that's how the old Nebraska would lose. I think they're beyond it. So I don't think I'm going to show faith in the new Nebraska

and say they're covering this thing. I don't want my Rutgers pick for people to think that I think Nebraska's the old Nebraska. I think that if they're in a tie game in the fourth quarter, then Nebraska wins by seven or three. That is the new Nebraska. That's the opposite of the old Nebraska. That wins in that environment.

So I think that, yeah, I'm comfortable with getting two possessions here with Rutgers, but I also think that Nebraska is going to win this football game well I cannot wait that's another this is what I've been this is what I've been circled or have had circled for the whole season like I just think it's going to be a really interesting game one more in the big 10 and then we'll head back to the SEC it's weird saying this is a Big Ten game. Ari, this is a rematch of the national title game last year that will look nothing like the rematch of the national title game. None of the players are the same except for the Michigan defense.

Michigan goes to Washington. Washington is a two-and-a-half point favorite. So the line opened. I believe Washington was favored by a point and a half. It went up to two and a half on Monday morning. So I was trying to think, why is this? Because everything we've seen from Michigan so far suggests they should be

able to beat Washington, given everything we've seen from Washington so far. And then I started thinking, this is a mostly NFL staff at Washington. Like Steve Belichick's the defensive coordinator. If you bring a completely one-dimensional offense and put it in front of a bunch of former NFL coaches, I bet they diagnose it pretty well.

Yeah, I think that's the exact way to look at this. Because, you know, the other way, too, is that even if that's not the case, how long can you stay on the Michigan train before you know? Like, I know that the Michigan train is going to be derailed at some point. And I'm just trying to figure out when the time to get off the train would be. I picked Michigan to cover on Saturday, and I thought that that was a stupid pick looking back at it, even though it looked like they were going to cover the entire game.

I don't know that I'm going to stay on the train this week, Andy. And I went down hard with Washington on Friday night. I thought Washington would beat Rutgers, and they didn't. They had a really hard time scoring. Statistically dominated the game, though. It's one of those box scores. I remember you saying, this is kind of a whale play. There's a lot of folks in Vegas who have circled this game.

Do we have to relive this right now? That was the worst night of my life. Listen, I know, but listen, your analytics were sound, though. Like, the box score said that. I'll just call my bookie and tell him that the analytics were sound, and maybe he'll give me the money back. The scoreboard did not say that, unfortunately, for you. No, but you do look at the box score, Andy,

and you see a 300-yard Will Rogers performance, and Coleman rushed for 150 yards, and they scored 18 points and lost to Rutgers on the road. But see, here's my problem. If you do that against Rutgers and you only score 18 points, you're not gaining all those yards against Michigan.

And this is the part where I deviate from what I just said about they've got all these NFL coaches. I think schematically they're going to figure something out the problem is i don't know how many nfl players washington has on their defense yeah i do know michigan has a lot of nfl players on its offense like it may not be the greatest offense in the world and alex orgy's not an nfl quarterback but the other 10 guys might be nfl players so yeah that's the part where when you

move from the nfl to college you have to be able to overcome you can scheme something up great and they just might out athlete you and that's what michigan may do here but i do think it'll be interesting to see what was does defensively against Michigan, because there's a lot of brainpower on that side that has looked at a completely one-dimensional offense. Do they force Michigan to try something different, to do something different? And we've said this, Michigan did a great job. Congratulations beating USC. You did what you had to do. You were lucky that you played Minnesota. That was the one team you could get away with it against again. Now you're going to have to figure out how to do a little more, but the talent gap may allow them to do a little more. We'll see. I will take Michigan

here, especially if you're giving me points. I'm getting off the train. I like Washington. And also too, are we going to talk about the travel stuff? Like, is Washington having to fly across the country to play Rutgers last weekend and fly all the way back at home, and now Michigan's got to get on an airplane? Like, do you think that that's going to have any impact or material impact on these games? Like, how far are these teams at?

You haven't flown a charter flight, Ari? No, but I have been on a JSX flight, though. I don't know what that means but i oh jsx is like the smaller jets that are like oh yeah like a little quasi private yeah yeah yeah i gotcha yeah so a charter flight's like flying commercial except you don't have to deal with all the airport bs and it's great you get on the plane you sit there for a few hours and you're there so i think i've flown from detroit to seattle before it ain't like you're just sitting on a plane for for four hours five hours like it's fine it's not the end of the world yeah so this will be i don't think the travel

piece of it will will matter much but i do think the scheming up of an offense that now we've had two weeks of film on, I'm fascinated to see that. Like, what ideas did they put forth? Because they may or may not have the players to execute it. But I guarantee you, everybody that's got to play Michigan going forward is taking notes about what these guys come up with

to scheme them up. Yeah, I like Washington for the reasons that you outlined. Okay, I like it. I'll still take Michigan for the reasons that you consistently outline every day that I've known you. Pure stars matter game. Hurts you, doesn't it? I mean, I'm obviously wrong.

Yeah, I mean, we're talking about a team that won the national title a year ago that uh didn't you know i i'm in a pretzel man i i gotta i gotta go see somebody well let's put you but let's put ourselves further into the pretzel because i think this this is a pretzel game right here that we're about to talk about. Ole Miss going to Columbia, South Carolina. How is Lenora Sellers' ankle? I think if you could just tell me now, and I doubt Shane Beamer is going to volunteer this information at all this week, there is an availability report that will come out Wednesday night.

I suspect Lenora Sellers will be on it, but will be in it, not out. It will be one of probable, questionable, doubtful, probably probable or questionable. If you could tell me his ankle's fine, I'm just taking South Carolina, no questions asked, give me nine and a half points, that's easy. If he's not, if it's Robbie Ashford, I have many more questions. Yeah. So this is a Ole Miss discussion. Like, are you just out? No.

Not out yet. Because I do think what Kentucky did to them. Now, South Carolina, with those defensive ends, with their edges, they're as good as a lot of teams that you're going to see. Their edges are as good as a lot of elite teams' edges. And that's tough. And this is another thing that makes me question this game. Because Kentucky has something that nobody else has,

and that's Deion Walker and that made life very difficult for Ole Miss moving the ball on Saturday hardly any like nobody has it there's no other Deion Walker in the country you know Kenneth Grant Mason Graham probably the two best defensive tackles in the country the Michigan guys but Deion Walker is either one C or two A. He is right up there with them. If you've got somebody like that, you can have all the talent in the world and sometimes it doesn't matter. Do those South Carolina edges make that big of a difference? I don't know. Because there's going to be a game where Ole Miss just comes and rips off 45 points on some team that we think is going to play close.

I'm happy you said that because I was like, a lot of people in the chat too, I noticed, I'm tempted to just hammer South Carolina to get the points. It's like, I don't know if I'm to the point where I don't think that I'm going to look at a box score on Saturday and see that Ole Miss scored 58 points. You know what I mean? That is still on the table. If you hit the algorithm right, they're off to the races.

We have to just rewire our brains. I keep saying this. We have to rewire our brains. This is not 2019 anymore. Ole Miss is still a team that is firmly in the playoff mix and they are not dead and they have a very talented offense they've got a great running back you've got one of the best receivers in college football who I don't think we talk about enough Trey Harris is an absolute dog um obviously the game plan is going to be to stop the run and to

get the Jackson dart I think they'll be able to do that to a certain extent, but I do think that like, it's very easy to overreact to what happened to Kentucky. Just assume that South Carolina has got enough talent to keep this game close at home and that Ole Miss is going to have a hard time scoring, but Ole Miss also could be up 21, nothing in the first quarter. Like I still think that like that's on the table for them.

Well, also if sellers is not playing or is, 21-0 in the first quarter. I still think that's on the table for them. Well, also, if Sellers is not playing or is limited, South Carolina's offense is very limited. If Sellers is playing, South Carolina becomes a very difficult team to stop

if he's playing and fully healthy because you saw against Kentucky how hard it was for Kentucky to deal with him. You saw in the first half of the South Carolina LSU game what that guy can do. Because South Carolina at that point was like, we're a triple option team, and we're going to use the triple option as our play action when we throw. And that is terrifying with Lenore Sellers. Just terrifying.

So that's the part that I just don't know what's going to happen. And anything I say right now is going to be a guess at that because I don't know where his ankle's at. We did see South Carolina against LSU. Gave up 285 passing yards to Garrett Nussmeyer. Now, he only averaged 7.1 yards per attempt in that game. He was not super efficient in that game.

So, I'm telling you, look, part of this is just a guess on Lenora Sellers' health. Because if I'm wrong, I'm going to be real wrong. But I'm going to say he's all right and ready to go. And South Carolina covers the spread. You're going to give me that many points at Williams Bryce I guess a team that's a little bit shook after last week I'll take them I'm going to go Ole Miss because this is just the theme of the show you and me are on the opposite of just about every game we've picked so far, I get a fade public perception and even my own perception. My thought would be like, wow, we just watched this team struggle

and lose to Kentucky. Now they're laying nine and a half. That's not analysis, though. It doesn't work that way. I've lost a lot of money thinking that way. And I just think that this team, with the players that they have, are 10 points better than South Carolina, even on the road. We'll find out. We will find out. Yeah.

We're coming on the opposite side. A lot of these, I don't know what we're going to come down on this one. I got, this one's hard for me. Auburn, Georgia. We've talked so much about Auburn. Obviously we always talk about a lot, a lot about Georgia because they're one of the best teams in the country. Georgia is a 23.5 point favorite. Now, this game is in Athens. If this game were in Auburn, I'd look at this spread and go, this is an easy Auburn cover. They're going

to lose, but they're going to cover. In Athens, I don't feel that way. It's it's a little bit more complicated than that. The question is, can Auburn even come close to hanging with Georgia? I just think about turnovers at untimely times against Georgia on the road and how that turns into a snowball effect that ends up in a 55 to nothing game. I don't know. It's not going to be that. I think that Auburn, you know, for the thing that's been so frustrating about them has been that they've looked competent and functional offensively and only shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers. It's not that they're like Iowa from last year.

They move the football. They run the ball well. Guys are open. So, like, I think that they'll be able to move the ball but you can't go on the road uh to an angry georgia team you want to play a kirby smart speech why don't you play it right now uh and and turn the ball over and keep a game close so like i i'm on the georgia side of this thing here i don't have any faith in auburn's ability to play a clean offensive game. So here are the scores. So Kirby's first year,

which is, you know, kind of the anomaly. They lost to Vanderbilt that year. They weren't great. They, they beat Auburn 13, seven in Athens that year, but since then 27,

10, 27, six, 42, 10. It's just been, it's not close. Now here's the thing.

Not one of those is more than 23 and a half points. So a three touchdown win still does not cover this spread. So you could have Georgia up huge, put backups in and Auburn walks through the back door. This is the problem with this. And Auburn also playing pissed in a desperate situation. And Auburn has good players. I'm going to take Auburn to cover here, Ari. Yeah. But does angry Georgia scare you? I don't know if Auburn's playing pissed.

Angry Georgia scares me a lot, but also have seen Kirby just sort of. You know, once they get that lead. That's very comfortable. He does some stuff to build depth like he's he's thinking about the end of the season. He's not thinking about covering a spread. He's like, I've got these guys that need to play because i may need them if somebody gets hurt later so i'm going to get them some reps now because we're up four touchdowns that's the part that i'm thinking

about this in terms of not really even considering the possibility of auburn winning the game i'm just thinking about the number more than anything else. Now, Auburn played Georgia great last year. Scott Aldridge put this up in the chat, and I think that there's a big distinction here, and I think it's good. Is Auburn playing pissed, or are they playing frustrated? I think playing frustrated is dangerous. I think that playing frustrated is something that can build on you,

create pressure, and then cause more bad things to happen. I just can't, in good faith, pick Auburn right now against the team that is as deep and talented as Georgia with their turnover problem. I just can't do it. Like, you know, it's all the factors here, where the game's played, what happened to Georgia last week, what Auburn's going through, the way that the coach at Auburn has reacted to what's going on. You know, like all these things.

Like, I just don't really love this spot. Now, I think that if Auburn were getting 24.5, I might feel a little bit differently because that's a huge score threshold in terms of the points. But I think that Georgia might just absolutely destroy them this weekend. Well, I will go for... They can still get destroyed and still go over the spread. So I'll take them to cover.

You are not going to take them to cover. Two more games, Ari. The one I'm going to, which is a not in the grand scheme, very interesting game, but could be very interesting in the wider world. UCF at Florida. Florida is a one and a half point favorite. If UCF comes in here and wins,

I think that's probably it for Billy Napier. I mean, I think the decision has been made, but I think they actually do it if that happens. The bulk of the team will have played five games at that point. Like you can just, you can make your move, but if UCF plays the way they did against Colorado on Saturday, Florida can absolutely win this game.

Yeah. I'm just going to let you cook. You're going to it. I, I mean, I think that Florida is the play here. So am I wrong? I'll tell you what this game feels like a

lot, which the Florida fans are not going to want to hear. It feels like the Florida Arkansas game last year where now the difference is Arkansas was coming in. They just fired their offensive coordinator. They had a first time play caller, but that game went to overtime. Arkansas ended up winning. KJ Jefferson ended up winning in the swamp. But I think UCF is going to be able to score on this defense. The reason UCF struggled offensively against Colorado, Colorado's defensive ends were fantastic playing the read option. So the read option, the way it works is that you leave somebody unblocked

and you read option. So the read option, the way it works is that you leave somebody unblocked and you read them. They were excellent at not giving away what they were choosing in terms of, I'm going to go for the quarterback or I'm going to go for the back. You basically run straight at the mesh. And if you're athletic enough, you can cause the quarterback and the running back to have some indecision. And that makes it very difficult. They did a great job of that. I don't know if Florida's D great job of that. I don't know if Florida's DNs, like, I don't know if Florida's edges are as good as Colorado's. If they are, then they should limit UCF. And I think they can score on UCF. If they're not, UCF was going to run all over them. So I don't really know where to go with it. I think Florida is going to win

this game. I think Florida is good enough to win this game. So I'm going to go with the Gators for this one. And, and maybe a quiet Sunday in Gainesville. I don't know how you feel about that. Yeah. The thing that is interesting to me is that like, I think this is more of like a symbolic thing,

right? Like if UCF was just like Arizona state, like I think it would be totally different if it wasn't an in-state team. Yeah. An in-state team that Florida should feel superior to that's right down the road coming into Gainesville and winning, I just think symbolically is a dangerous thing. So I think Florida is a team that should probably win this game by two points.

And if they're not, then the decision's easy. I'm going to take Florida. All right. One more. game by two points um and if they're not then the decision's easy i'm gonna take florida all right one more we picked miami very poorly last week we both thought they were going to cover against virginia tech and nope friday night hokey's had something for. Depending on how you feel about the way that game ended, you may think Virginia Tech won. So Miami now goes to Cal, and Miami is a 12.5-point favorite on the road.

College game day is in Berkeley. Ari, this is the biggest game at Cal in a long, long, long, long, long time. It is a 10.30 p.m. Eastern time game. It is a ACC after dark. Has Miami ever played a game this late before? Well, you do have to talk about how the Pac-12 after dark spirit has definitely lived on through different conference games because there's been a lot of crazy stuff happening at midnight or 1 a.m.

And I've come to accept, Andy, that I'm not going to be going to bed at any point this season on a Saturday night until 4 a.m. every weekend. And I was kind of hoping that we wouldn't have a game that would impact the top 10 that starts at 10.30 p.m., but here we are. So, yeah, no, I don't know that they have played a game that starts this late no so scott aldrich says bring on the berkeley protesters i didn't think about that with gamey like wait so there's a there's a tv show where you want us to make signs and hold them up all right these people were born for this yeah i know it's the first time they're going i think

there's only four teams that haven't gone or that haven't been on college game day and i can't remember who they are but cal this is their first time doing it and it's an opportunity to make your statement politically if you want to do that go for it yeah yeah are they going to take people's signs like you've encouraged them to hold up signs this is going to be incredible there's got to be like a save the sea life sign like it's just going to be a bunch of just like yeah oh yeah but my electric to be fair it will be 10 30 in california no it'll be 7 30 in california but body clocks everybody body clocks yeah i think that miami is still a team that is going to make the ACC championship. I don't know if I'm ready to just let the game on Friday night

dictate or change how I feel about them. Cal has a big game, and I don't even know what a big game atmosphere looks like at Cal. The only time I went there, the stadium was either empty or dominated by the away team. It'll be interesting to see, but what is it that Cal brings to the table here that makes you think that Miami's going to struggle? Not much. They run the ball well. Their defense is okay, but they seem lost to Florida State.

And why is this a big game again? It's a big game because Cal has only lost once, and Miami's undefeated. And there's no other obvious huge game this week. But Cal also has only lost once in conference play and has only played once in conference play. They won at Auburn so you said I don't know what that means yet anyhow like I mean why are people in Berkeley fired up about this I don't know it's a it's early in the season they haven't had chances to

lose yet but yeah no I think Miami is a much better football team from top to bottom and we're talking about a team that has lost to Florida State like what are we doing here I also will take Miami to cover that is Ari's way of saying Miami is going to cover the 12 and a half. I also take Miami to cover. Ari, I don't know if we've picked out the landmine this week. I'm kind of on high alert for Oregon, Michigan State. I'm just, it just feels weird to me. I don't know.

I'm on alert. And here's the thing about being on alert, Andy. If you're wrong and it's a blowout, picking these things isn't supposed to be easy. I'm just trying to find a place where it's like, oh, shit. Here we go. And I'm sure it'll present itself. I mean, hell, maybe it'll be this game.

Cal, Miami. I know the people from Berkeley are fired up right now for this team. High grab-ass potential once again, ACC after dark. We'll be talking during that game. Our Saturday night show will be taking place during that game. Of course, if something wild happens, then I'll have to wake our... We had that situation a few times on the old show where I had to call and wake you up. And we're like, we got to go back on.

And I'd be texting you during the game like five minutes ago in the fourth quarter. we're like, we got to go. I got to go back on. Yeah. And you're like, and I'd be texting you during the game, like, you know, five minutes ago in the fourth quarter, you're up, right? And you'd be like, yep, I'm ready. I do know that if that happens, we have to do it. Like if there is a reason to talk about Cal and Miami at three in the morning, it has to be done. You know, I did watch the Ohio State-Michigan State game, Nick.

I did. I watched it. The reason why we're on alert is because it's supposed to be crazy. Like, that's the point. So, yeah, if Oregon wins by 100, it's not a point that I think Oregon stinks. It's a point of, like, that is a place on Friday night. Like, that seems to be a spot where that sort of thing could happen. It's a point of that is a place on Friday night. That seems to be a spot where that sort of thing could happen. It's a strange,

strange situation. Ari, it's been a blast. Let's do this again tomorrow. Everybody will talk to you tomorrow at 9.30 a.m. Eastern Time here on the On3 Sports YouTube channel.