Andy & Ari On3 - Can Georgia cover on the road at Alabama? | Penn State's first big test | Notre Dame on upset alert?

Episode Date: September 23, 2024

Welcome to Andy and Ari On3, presented by Wendy’s! Wendy’s New Saucy Nuggs take the Crispy and Spicy Nuggs you love and turn them up to 11.Choose between flavors like Buffalo. Honey BBQ. Garlic Parm. Or, if you’re a real heat seeker,try Spicy Ghost Pepper, only on Wendy’s signature Spicy Nuggs. This show is also sponsored by PrizePicks, America’s most fun daily fantasy game. Use the code STAPLES to play $5 and get $50 instantly. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/ivHR/STAPLES Thank you to Gametime for sponsoring today's episode! Planning your college football travel for this season? Gametime has tickets to every game. (And every concert and comedy show.) Download the Gametime App and enter code: STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Last Minute Tickets, Lowest Prices, Guaranteed. The Money Game is a compelling six-part docuseries that chronicles the introduction of the groundbreaking decision by the NCAA to grant NIL (name, image and likeness) rights to student-athletes, permitting them—for the first time ever—to earn endorsement compensation while maintaining their amateur athletic status. The Money Game features inside access to LSU stars Jayden Daniels, Angel Reese and Livvy Dunne through last year. See the world of NIL through their eyes. Watch The Money Game on Prime Video. https://www.amazon.com/The-Money-Game/dp/B0D9KQWC97?tag=on302-20It’s a picks show, and Andy and Ari are diving into some fascinating games. Georgia at Alabama is the headliner, but Illinois-Penn State and Louisville-Notre Dame are very intriguing. Iowa is off — after going over again — so Andy and Ari don’t get to pick the Hawkeyes’ total. But they will pick…(0:00-0:38) Wendy's Saucy Nuggs(0:38-5:36) Intro - Week 5 Picks, Harold Perkins out for rest of season at LSU(5:37-10:19) Preview of QB Discussion(10:20-11:52) Stream the Money Game on Amazon Prime(11:53-20:17) Virginia Tech at #7 Miami on Friday Night(20:18-21:37) Download the Gametime App! Promo Code: STAPLES(21:38-31:37) Wisconsin at #13 USC(31:38-33:56) Download PrizePicks!(33:57-39:57) #20 Oklahoma State at #23 Kansas State(39:58-44:29) #19 Illinois at #9 Penn State(44:30-48:53) #21 Oklahoma at Auburn(48:54-53:57) Arkansas at #24 Texas A&M(53:58-58:22) Colorado at UCF(58:23-1:01:26) Arizona at #10 Utah(1:01:27-1:06:11) #15 Louisville at #16 Notre Dame(1:06:12-1:14:07) #2 Georgia at #4 Alabama(1:14:08-1:14:58) Conclusion 1. Virginia Tech at #7 Miami (-17.5, O/U: 54.5)  2. Wisconsin at #13 USC (-12.5, O/U: 51.5)3. #20 Oklahoma State at #23 Kansas State (-3.5, O/U: 55.5)4. #19 Illinois at #9 Penn State (-17.5, O/U: 47.5)5. #21 Oklahoma at Auburn (+2.5, O/U: 45.5)6. Arkansas at #24 Texas A&M (-5.5, O/U: 51.5)7. Colorado at UCF (-13.5, O/U: 63.5)8. Arizona at #10 Utah (-11.5, O/U: 49.5)9. #15 Louisville at #16 Notre Dame (-4.5, O/U: 47.5)10. #2 Georgia at #4 Alabama (+2.5, O/U: 49.5 Want to watch the show instead? Head on over to YouTube and join us LIVE, M-Th at  9:30 am et: https://youtube.com/live/wrv9dM5-yiY Hosts: Andy Staples, Ari WassermanProducer: River Bailey

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and prepare to nug like you have never nugged before. For a whole new way to nug, it's got to be Wendy's at Participating 3, presented by Wendy's. Happy Monday. It is a PIX show, and we have some fascinating games to talk about, Ari Wasserman. You know what? That was a pretty exciting Saturday, and then I look at the schedule for this coming Saturday and it just keeps getting better and better. Andy,

I'm, I cannot wait to start envisioning next Saturday with you. Well, and we really get into conference play now. That's what, that's what I think makes this more interesting is this was last week was sort of the last gasp of the non-conference games, the teams that just scheduled some easy wins.

There will be obviously other non-conference games, but now that just scheduled some easy wins. There will be obviously other non-conference games, but now they're going to be toward the end of the season, the ACC and SEC rivalry games. Those, we get into the meat of conference play. And I think we saw some really good conference play last week with Illinois and Nebraska, with Tennessee and Oklahoma, with USC and Michigan. And obviously a little bit different kind of conference play,

not the conference play that we were used to. So that part we're getting the new, but also the fact that these games do matter in the conference race. And one thing I will say, the Big 12, like that K-State getting blown out by BYU, I think that just further reinforces what we've said, that the Big 12 is going to be nuts. I don't think we're going to pick this game,

but you want to know what's so funny about that? It's that Baylor is now a two-point favorite against BYU this weekend. So you want to talk about the – Did they not watch the games in Vegas? Yeah, I don't know. The big tell is going to be crazy. It is. But that's the thing. We don't know.

And that Colorado game, we are going to pick the Colorado game. And that line moved two points after it came out. And not in the direction I thought it was going to move. So it is going to be a very, very interesting week. And you know, I, we probably should just get started. Cause we got, we got a lot of games to hit. We're going to hit 10 games today. That's not all the ones we're going to pick. We're going to throw some, some bonus pick segments at you later in the week as well because there's just that many good games.

A little bit of news first. Bad news, unfortunately. Harold Perkins Jr., the LSU linebacker, is out for the season. We saw him go off during the UCLA game, and you saw he had the towel over his head. It looked bad. It looked like he was getting very bad news, and that is indeed the case. LSU without probably its best defensive playmaker for the rest of the season, and that's just a tough one. We're going to see more like this, Ari, but with Harold Perkins,

it's always like, okay, what happens with him? how are they going to use him now a defense that we're not sure is all that great is is further deteriorated i mean i feel bad for the kid because like in his freshman year we thought we were looking at like the next great college football defensive player you know what i mean like it was like looked like it was like going to be our next star of the sport and then year two went a little off the rails in terms of the way they schemed him up. And then now he's injured. His potential is off into the galaxy somewhere. And I just am upset that we're not going to be able to see it this year. But my hope for him is that he'll get back healthy and have a really good year next year. Well, but does he have a good year

in college or the NFL next year? Well, we might be able to see college or the NFL next year well we might be able to see him in the NFL next year um I don't know what the calculus there is Andy and this will be interesting in terms of like the NIL era and all this stuff if like LSU could make it worth it for him to come back sell him hey we'll take care of you here come have a great year and then get drafted higher uh the year after when you become the star that you're supposed to be in the sport or if he just goes to the NFL. Like that's going to be an interesting thing. Or somebody come in and say, here's how we're going to use you and we're going to use you

in a way that shows you the best. Yeah. And it might not even be an LSU. Because somebody else could do that in college. Exactly. Yeah. That's the pro sportsification of college football might be like the perfect, you know, experiment with this exact case right here. Well, and that's the thing.

I'm working on a column right now that will come out on On3 later today. And hopefully we'll talk about it tomorrow. I would like to discuss it in depth with you tomorrow, not, not all trying to pick games, but it's about the quarterback market and how weird the quarterback market is. Because I think you and I asked ourselves the same questions on Saturday night. We're watching Oklahoma play. We're like, well, what would this look like if Dylan Gabriel was the quarterback? And then I'm watching K-State play and get destroyed and like well what would this look like if Will Howard was still the quarterback and it's easy to say that oh Brent Venables just

picked Jackson Arnold over Dylan Gabriel that's not exactly what happened it's more complicated than that and the the quarterback market is super complex because while everything else is kind of mimic the NFL, that one hasn't because college, college people, I say coach, you know, people, coaches and fans can't get the five-star, this guy's a five-star out of their heads. And reporters too. And also can't get the five-star thing out of their head uh yeah it is like really interesting to see the movements of these quarterbacks andy and then if one's excelling at the new place or the person at the old place is excelling it's going to be a never-ending game of would have should have could have you know and it's like i was watching nfl games on sunday during my drive

back from Norman. And you see like Andy Dalton. Not while driving, of course. You were listening to the audio. Listening. Yeah, listening. And then glancing sometimes. But Andy Dalton now is like leading the Panthers to like 36 points. And, you know, Bryce Young isn't playing.

And then Justin Fields is 3-0 after the Bears gave up on him. And then Caleb Williams is having – the quarterback position is such a complex position that you wonder, well, what would have K-State looked like this year if Will Howard was their quarterback? And the answer to that question, Andy, is they could have still gotten their butts kicked. You know what I mean? Maybe, yeah.

Teams take new players or they're put in positions or different offenses with different pieces like they're gonna excel at new places when they weren't given the opportunity to do so for a various amount of reasons at the pre at the place that they were at before so like it is really tough for Oklahoma though specifically because you saw Dylan Gabriel you knew what it was and I think we're pretty certain that the ceiling or the floor of what he would have played like in the Tennessee game on Saturday was higher but are we sure that Dylan Gabriel's ceiling isn't higher than Jackson

Arnold's like that's the the discussion that you're having as a coach right like it's not just who's going to be the best in the first four games of the season next year but who's going to be a star here who are we going to be able to have for longer periods? You also have to take into account how much eligibility a player has left. You know, you could have brought back Dylan Gabriel, and that would have made sense because he was better, and maybe Oklahoma would have either won or been more competitive with Tennessee on Saturday.

But maybe the last thing on earth Oklahoma wanted to do was see Jackson Arnold go play somewhere else because they're thinking about their year two, year three. And in the portal era, we're always, it's not as easy to have a down year and get away with it. So, you know, it's not just how are we going to be good this year? It's how are we going to be good in year two, year three, year four. And sometimes you have to go, I mean, I don't know if you were a coach, would you pick the person who was moderately less ready right now, but has more years of eligibility and a higher ceiling? Or would you pick the person who was moderately less ready right now, but has more years of eligibility and a higher ceiling? Or would you pick the guy that can make you as good as possible in the following year?

It's a really interesting discussion. I'm actually trying to reason that out as I finish writing this column when we finish the show. I'm not sure where I fall on it yet. I will say there's something I've been saying the last few years to friends of mine who might have gone to the same school that I went to who continually freak out because a freshman quarterback might transfer if they fire the coach. And that's there's always another quarterback. And I think maybe that's where I'm going to land, where there's always another young quarterback, but there's not always another good veteran quarterback right now that you have right now. We'll see.

I haven't completely reasoned it out yet, but I appreciate you helping me workshop that. But let's talk about that more tomorrow. Okay. All right. Fine. I had something else to say, but we will wait for it tomorrow. Yeah. No.

Save it. Save it. Save it. Because we got to gotta pick games today it's such a fun discussion like that's what i love about this podcast and like just being able to talk stuff out with you because like it really is so fascinating to me like yeah if there was a discussion in the oklahoma room of like well we have a really hard schedule this year and we don't know uh if we're gonna win 10 games regardless of where our quarterback is. Go with the kid. Okay, tomorrow.

Sorry. Especially the Oklahoma one because it's way more complicated than most people realize. So that requires some time to let that breathe. So we will talk about that in depth tomorrow. We have to pick some games. But before that, I got to tell you about the money game. Speaking of games, we talked about Harold perkins being done at lsu if you want to go in depth at lsu the money game is streaming now on amazon prime it follows a bunch of lsu star athletes last year as they

navigate the nil landscape you're talking about jayden daniels he's winning the high end trophy angel reese as she's you know one of the biggest stars in women's college basketball, about to go to the WNBA. Libby Dunn, as she goes from LSU gymnast to global icon. It's very fascinating and right up the alley of the folks who watch and listen to this show. So if you'd like to watch the Money Game on Prime Video, click the link in the show description, whether you're listening on podcasts, watch it on YouTube, you click that link in the show description. It'll take you right there. If you are already an Amazon prime subscriber, if you are not already a prime subscriber, well, it'll help you get signed up and you can watch the money game and you can watch the rings of power and Thursday night,

NFL football and fallout, you name it. Lots to watch on Prime Video. But that money game is really interesting and will help you kind of understand a little more when we're talking about the NIL world because they go very deep into it. And you get some just really interesting behind the scenes access. I thought the stuff that we saw from LSU's football season last year was very enlightening.

So watch the money game. Click that link in the show description. It'll take you right there. All right, Ari. We got games to pick. And we have another really good appetizer this week. Virginia Tech at Miami is our appetizer. This is where, you know, the same slot as Illinois, Nebraska last week. Virginia Tech at Miami is our appetizer. This is where, you know, the same slot as Illinois, Nebraska last week.

Virginia Tech at Miami. Miami is a 17 and a half point favorite. Virginia Tech coming off a tough loss to Rutgers, which, you know, we said before the season that was going to be a tough game for the Hokies. Going to be a toss up. You know, they end up losing by two. The Miami thing's interesting so miami was playing usf on saturday and at one point usf led that game 15 14 in the second quarter

and re miami ended up winning 50 to 15 yeah the the the just go off and explode potential of miami with cam ward running the show is really big. Yeah, well, here's the thing about this game on Friday night is that I am in a position right now where Clemson is starting to scare me a little bit in the ACC. It was easy to write them off after week one. They're scoring 59 points in consecutive games. You're looking at their schedule, and it's getting harder and harder to say that Miami is the best team without a question in that conference right now.

If you would have asked me two weeks ago, will Miami beat Clemson, I'd be like, yeah. Now it's more of a question. So when we talk about Miami as an ACC favorite, when we talk about Miami as a potential top four seed in this college football playoff and really start viewing them as a team that isn't going to choke, but is actually really good. You want to see them come out on a national television audience and take care

of a team that they're unquestionably better than. And this is going to be tricky because I know, you know, you took the bait. I took the bait. There was a, there was a thought there that Virginia tech was going to surprise some people this year and be a very good football team. Obviously that hasn't gotten off to the right start there. They're two and two and they've lost to Vanderbilt and Rutgers, which sounds way worse than it probably is. But still you want to see Miami come out and take care of business. You want to see Cam Ward have another 350, 400-yard game in a conference game. It's one thing to watch a team just blow out teams that can't compete.

But on the right night, Virginia Tech could probably beat anybody in that conference. I don't know if you still agree with that, but that's what I think. You want to see Miami assert itself, flex its muscles, and show the country that they're a legitimate team to be considered not just a playoff team, but a team that can win a few in the playoff and maybe get to the final four and beyond. So they've done a really good job, as we've noted, watching them play Florida in week one with their lines. They have explosive playmaking ability at the right receiver position. Xavier Restrepo, I think, is a player that should be a star and known nationally, and I'm not sure that he is yet.

Their running backs are really good, and of course, they've got Cam Wart. So, you know, I've got high hopes for this team, and I think Friday night's a good chance to show the entire country while they're not just watching the box scores update on Saturday, you know, what it looks like to watch them on TV. Well, that's the thing. If Miami is what we think they are, they cover this spread. They beat Virginia Tech comfortably, if they are who we think they are.

If they are still not quite there yet, this is going to be a struggle. This is going to be a close game. I don't know who wins it, but I think that's the question you have to ask yourself is has Miami gotten over that hump? Are they now the type of team that we should expect to compete for the ACC title to expect to compete for the playoff to expect permit to maybe compete for the national title. And listen, I I've said with this Miami team that the way they play on both lines of scrimmage, it makes them a little recession proof. It makes it where it's hard to have a stinker. If you just physically dominate someone up front, it's harder to have a stinker. And so that, that causes me to lean toward taking Miami to cover,

even though this is an obscene amount of points for a conference game on a Friday night. Yeah, it is a lot of points, but two thoughts on Cam Ward here real quick too, Andy. So I think you and I both in the on three Heisman watch put Cam Ward in the top three. I think he was number two for both of us. And I don't know if you read those mentions, but I do because I can't control myself.

And there are a lot of people who are like, Cam Ward's a fraud. Cam Ward's not as good as he looks. Like he's going to turn the ball over in big games. Like all the usual Cam Ward things that you would expect. But then on the other hand, I don't know how closely you watched Miami play in that 50-15 win. But did you see that lateral that he made on Saturday night? I sure did. Man's feeling himself a little bit like like I don't know what the ceiling is for Cam Ward stardom this year but

I think Friday night could be a first audition for being one of the faces of the sport if he goes out and shows out well I think what happened with cam warden and this could still happen when miami plays really good teams we don't know this yet but at washington state he would be feeling himself and he put the ball in harm's way and he didn't have the kind of teammates around him that he has now so he has teammates that when he does get a little bit loose with it keep him out of trouble in this case. That may not be the, let's say they have to play Clemson in the ACC championship game, or they make the playoff and they have to play one of these superpowers from the SEC or the Big Ten.

They might not be able to bail him out in that case. It may look like the cam word from Washington State, but right now, when he's surrounded by all these great players against lesser competition, he can get away with almost anything. Yeah, absolutely. And I don't know, how do we view Virginia Tech in terms of whether that should be a tough game? Because you look down at the spread, and let me ask you this.

If the spread was Miami minus 7.5, would you be like, whoa, whoa, whoa, that's way too low? that that to me is i think that would have been appropriate that would have probably been something that i would have thought and and granted i know virginia tech has lost to two teams that uh are usually embarrassing to lose to i don't know that there was embarrassing to lose to this year's event in the past but um so i i don know, like this spread makes me feel like Miami is as good as they are, as I've said they are, as I've been fooled, you know, like I haven't been fooled, like after the first game of the season, I'm like, holy crap, this team is really, really good. Now, we've gotten more context on what Florida is, so it kind of takes away a little bit,

but like 17 and a half points is a very large spread for a conference game. Like you said on Friday night. Yeah. The Friday night piece of it. I know a lot of people don't care. I do take that into account because I teams know when they are the team that everyone in the country is watching. And I feel like that makes teams play better. Sometimes like the, the the team that that is not expected to win tends to play better in situations like that because they know everybody they've ever met is watching them right now i mean i think miami's fortunate this game isn't in uh that big old stadium with enter sandman this weekend lane stadium Stadium would have been rocking. It would have.

It would have. And then, you know, Virginia Tech kind of, they sort of pioneered the weeknight conference game in the ACC. But I do think Miami is, I think Miami is what we thought. And I'm going to believe that until they prove me wrong. So I'm going to take Miami to cover here. I think I am going to take Virginia Tech to cover here, Andy, because I just think the points are too many points.

I think Miami can win this game by 16 and have a very impressive outing, and Cam Moore can have a good game, but just covering the 17 and a half, it seems like a lot of points to me. It's not a doubt that Miami is going to win. I think they'll win comfortably, but I could see them being up 24 in the fourth quarter and giving up a late score there and not covering the spread.

Well, we will get to another game with a lot of points. Surprising number of points to me for a conference game. Again, in one segment first, I got to tell about game time. Would you like to go see Georgia play Alabama this weekend in Tuscaloosa? The game's been sold out for like, I don't know, infinity years, but you can still get tickets on game time. Game time has tickets to every game. When you use the GT picks feature on GameTime, it cuts through the fluff, gives you the best

deals relative to market value that you can find. So when you click GT picks, you know, you are getting the best possible deal on a ticket for game that really everybody wants to go to. Now it's not just Georgia, Alabama. Would you like to go see Penn State play against Illinois? You can actually get into that one for under a hundred bucks right now on GameTime. That's going to be a heck of a game. We're going to be picking that game here in a few minutes. So download that GameTime app, use that GTPix feature, use the code STAPLES for $20 off your first purchase.

Terms apply. GameTime has tickets to everything you need, even at the last minute, whether it's a sporting event, comedy show, concert, you name it, they got it. Go to GameTime, download the app, use the code STAPLES, 20 bucks off your first purchase. All right, all right. Continuing with the theme of holy crap,

that's a lot of points, especially in a conference game. Wisconsin at USC opened as a, USC a 12 and a half point favorite. USC then was bet up to a 14 and a half point favorite against the Badgers. This is Alex Grinch returning to the Coliseum. He's now Wisconsin's safeties coach. So he's actually not deciding exactly what personnel they recruit on their defensive line. So he's not putting 260-pound defensive linemen in there. But what do you think about this?

You and I saw Wisconsin the last time they played in person. We were there for the Alabama game, and then USC is coming off a just emotionally brutal loss to Michigan. I think Wisconsin probably had a bye week at the right time, right? And the column I wrote off of the game, you know, when we went to that Alabama blowout, we're like, well, you know, I'm not sure if there's going to be a Wisconsin angle here, but one came out pretty quickly there. And that's like, is this offense broken? You know, does it have an identity crisis? You know, because, you know, when Luke Fickle took over there, you know, you thought that Wisconsin would be able to have a ton of types of playmakers at the skill positions that Wisconsin wasn't able to get in the past.

And that they would have higher quarterback play and they would still be able to run the ball very efficiently. And I'm not sure that they did anything all that well against Alabama. Now, granted, Tyler Van Dyke did get injured, I believe, on the first drive of the game. And you have to go to a quarterback with no to little to no experience. But like you're not a great lockout experience last year. Oh, yeah. He did four games last year. Yeah.

Yeah. OK, well, so it shouldn't have looked as bad as it did but Andy when you go into this game in LA what is the thing that you think Wisconsin will undoubtedly be good at running the ball and I think they watch the team yeah so do you think that they still have it in them to be the Wisconsin of old like are you still confident that they could still do like play bully ball the way that Michigan did a week ago? I think they should try. And look, this is you and I talked about this.

You wrote it in your column. When Phil Longo got hired at Wisconsin, my my vision for that was not that they were going to be throwing it all over the place. I was thinking back to 2020 at North Carolinaolina when they had michael carter and davante williams and were just running you know running down people's throats i think that they should be able to like because in the alabama game when alabama knew they were going to run wisconsin had success running the ball like they just couldn't keep up with alabama on the scoreboard like they couldn't keep up with Alabama on the scoreboard. They couldn't defend Alabama.

And they didn't finish drives either. And they didn't finish drives either. And they didn't defend USC. Yeah. Well, that's the thing, too. It's just like I don't know. I think Michigan's defense is much better than Wisconsin's. So I think USC is probably not going to go an entire half without getting a first down like it felt like on Saturday.

Yeah. And we might find ourselves in a position where even if Wisconsin's moving the ball on the ground, moderate moderately well, uh, if they're not finishing drives or they're not able to throw effectively in throwing situations that they just won't be able to keep up in the same way. Now, Andy, it's really, really hard to contextualize a loss to Alabama because it's just like, sometimes you play a team that's much better than you and they make you look foolish when you're not actually foolish. But I just don't know that Wisconsin's offense is where I would have wanted it to be by this point, Luke Fickle's tenure. And I just don't think

they're going to be able to keep up on the scoreboard. Also, USC was a team that we were super excited about last week. We probably would be off the wall excited right now if they would have figured out a way to close that game against Michigan on Saturday and I haven't lost confidence in their offense to be able to put some points up for Lincoln Riley to scheme up some offensive plays to exploit Wisconsin's weaknesses even if they have a hard time stopping Wisconsin's rushing attack to a certain extent I just don't know that Wisconsin's going to be able to keep up with anybody that has the type of skill talent that USC has this year yeah so Chesma Lucy averaged six yards of carry against Alabama. Katie Akimeli averaged 4.9 yards of carry against Alabama.

USC's defense is not Alabama's defense. Wisconsin is going to be able to run on these guys. But I am in the same boat as you, which I struggle with this line, though, because it's so many points. I could see Wisconsin sneaking in the back door and covering this in a two touchdown loss like because i i am with you i don't think wisconsin can defend usc i think you score a bunch of points it is kind of funny though when you think like everything that they were saying about usc when they took the big 10 invitation of like oh you're not going to be able to keep up in the big 10 you're going

to get the ball jammed down your throat your team's not built for this like for their first two games to be in michigan and wisconsin's kind of uh and i don't know if wisconsin is the wisconsin that we've we've known to grow and maybe they are maybe maybe they'll prove that alabama's just you know it's possible that wisconsin could be in a one possession game with USC in the fourth quarter and Alabama beats Georgia on Saturday. And we're like, oh, they ran six yards of carry against an Alabama team that just beat Georgia. Like, we're still gathering information.

We're still trying to get a feel for it. But like, when I was at the game in Madison with you, I just felt like Wisconsin isn't 100% sure of what it is. So I hope they took the bye week. I hope they took the film from the USC-Michigan game and decided the same way that Sharon Moore did with Michigan, of like, here's what we are, here's what we're going to do, and if it's not good enough, we're going to lose,

but we're going to do what we are. And I think that's what Wisconsin has done over the last 20 years. And if you're going to move on from that going to, you know, move on from that, hire a person who likes to throw the ball a little bit more in Phil Longo and try to, you know, accentuate that running attack with better offensive weapons. If you don't have them right now, then the one thing that you have to do is be yourself.

And I think, you know, if Michigan was able to beat USC at home with a quarterback that ran for 32 or that threw for 32 yards and Alex Orgy which I still can't believe every time I look at that box score like Wisconsin should be able to be in the game by running clock and doing what it has to do if you think that they're going to be able to move the ball effectively against the Trojans on the ground well and the the bi-week thing is playing into my thoughts here too because USC got beat to hell up front. And I'm not saying that they were dominated and their D-line was dominated toward the end,

but they just got pounded by very large people on both sides of the ball, and it just happened last week. Wisconsin got pounded by very large, very good people on both sides of the ball, but that was two weeks ago. And I do think that also matters as you go forward. These are the things we're going to have to consider in these Big Ten and SEC games,

like schedules, who you just played or who you didn't play at all is going to matter a lot going forward. And Wisconsin having the bye week, I am going to matter a lot going forward and Wisconsin having the bye week that's I am going to go with Wisconsin to cover because they had that bye week I think they're going to be able to keep it semi-close I don't think they're going to win this game I'm just saying they're going to cover because I'm getting a truckload of points yeah I think I'm going to go USC here and feel not as confident about it as I would

like to, but you know what I really like in this game? If you think that Wisconsin's going to cover, then that over looks really attractive to me. If you think that this is like a 31-21, 31-24 type game, I think that that number... I can't just imagine a

world, unless Wisconsin has 12-minute drives multiple times in this game, where USC doesn't get to 30 points in this game. I mean, 44-30 is a plausible outcome for this game, and then Wisconsin covers. I mean, if Wisconsin scores 30 points in this game, then USC's in trouble this year, in my opinion. I would agree. But watching Michigan run the ball against them i i think and and look if they hadn't just

played michigan i don't know that i'd be as confident in wisconsin running the line and maybe they proved me wrong maybe usc completely proves me wrong but given what we saw and the fact that they there is a body blow effect it's's like Bruce Felvin, our friend at The Athletic and Fox Sports, used to always write this story about teams that had just played Navy and how poorly they played the week after they played Navy. Well, playing as Michigan, at least the Michigan we saw last week, is like playing a supercharged service academy team. So you just got pounded on. You're right. I have to say this though.

And it was surprising to me, but if you go back and watch the second half of the Michigan USC game, USC really hung in there. Well, physically like until that last drive, USC, USC's changes on the offensive line at halftime made a massive difference.

They blocked a lot better. I don't think USC's D line was that much better. I think the fact that USC's offense was moving the ball changed the dynamics of that game quite a bit. Because remember, the first half, USC was just going three and out every series. Right, right, for sure. And if you're a defense that knows

that the other team can't throw the ball at all and you give up a two-minute drill without them putting the ball in the air one time, that's just the personification of what the issue was last year. But I do think that Wisconsin probably has a more functional passing attack than Michigan does at this point, too. So that changes things a little bit from the calculus of the spread. And we'll see what they built around Braden Locke, knowing that he's got bit from the calculus. Yeah. And we'll see what they, what they built around Braden lock, knowing that he's gotta be the guy I,

you know, it'll, it'll probably look a little bit different, but I I'm fascinated to see this game. That's it. Every game this week, there's some sort of hook to it. So we will talk.

We're gonna move to the big 12 next, but first we got to talk about prize picks. The best daily fantasy game in America. Use the code Staples. Play $5. Get $50 instantly. This past weekend, I used that almost free Caleb Williams square to pick a winner. I had a four square play.

Oh, Producer River showing the five square play that I gave out that where only two of them hit. Yeah, that wasn't my best work. Ari told me, don't pick a kicker. Stay away from the kickers. I picked USC's kicker. I was sure he was going to have a couple field goals and an extra point. And it turned out that they stopped needing to kick field goals because they started scoring touchdowns and then yeah that didn't work but i did have a winner uh that's also not the winner producer river there's the winner

there's the winner thanks to that almost free caleb williams square where all he had to do was throw for a yard but uh nate noel just tearing it up for Missouri against Vanderbilt. Garrett Nussmeyer, I'm very confident in Garrett Nussmeyer. And then Garrett Green, the West Virginia quarterback, they were in a fight with Kansas going into the second half. So I did more than 19 and a half rushing yards in the second half. And sure enough, Garrett Green, white lightning came through for me. So that's how you play prize picks.

You pick as few as two squares. You pick more. The more you pick, the higher the potential payout. It's so much fun. Makes watching the games very entertaining. And again, every week in September, you've got the almost free Caleb Williams square. And that was very helpful.

One yard equals one win. So one more of those. And that was very helpful. Uh, one yard equals one win. So one more of those, and that's coming up this week. So Caleb Williams can bail you out if you're not super confident. I think as long as he throws for a yard, I, I, I was a little nervous for a second yesterday.

Yeah. And then he, he did, he turned it over a few times, uh, on Sunday, but I think he threw for more than 250 yards. He threw for almost 300 yards.

He did? Yeah. Yeah. But I only needed the one, so I was happy. So download PrizePix, use the code STAPLES, play $5, get $50 instantly. All right, Ari, moving to the Big 12. Oklahoma State at Kansas State, two teams coming off conference losses. This opened with Kansas State a three and a half point favorite

and has moved to Kansas State as a five and a half point favorite. So you mentioned earlier the Baylor-BYU spread, where Baylor was installed as a favorite against BYU, Baylor coming off that horrific loss to Colorado, where they gagged it away at the end. And then K-State was installed as a favorite in this game, and then the Gamblers bet it up to five and a half. They have a lot more faith in K-State bouncing back than maybe I do

because I think Oklahoma State may be the one that bounces back in this game. Yeah, I don't know if we would have drawn this up before the year, but if you would have told me that the Oklahoma State-Kansas State game would be matchups between two 0-1 teams in the Big 12, I probably wouldn't have believed that. And now here we are early on in the season with a must-win probably for both if either of these teams wants to get back in the race. Now, I don't know. Maybe that's not a must win maybe uh in the big 12 we're gonna have uh just every single team

dropping games and it's just gonna be a complete cluster but at this point in time these were two of the three teams that I thought had the best chances of winning the conference they're both you know losing to teams that I didn't think that they were gonna lose to well that's not true Oklahoma State lost to a really good team. That was the third one. But yeah, I don't know. The bounce back must win game here. The factor that's in Manhattan.

I don't know that I would feel comfortable laying five and a half points, though. Yeah, that's the thing. Like, so Scott asked in the chat, what's wrong with Ollie Gordon? What's wrong with Ollie Gordon is Oklahoma State's not running the ball very well, period. But they are throwing the ball fairly well. I just thought Utah dominated them up front for a lot of that game. Now, Oklahoma State did come back there at the end. But I don't know that I would sit there and expect Oklahoma State to just trounce people on the ground.

They're going to have to throw the ball people on the ground. Like they're going to have to throw the ball to win, but I think they can probably do that against K state. I don't think K state is going to completely shut them down. Now the BYU game, the score is probably pretty misleading because, uh, the, it was turnovers that, that led to some directly to some BYU points. So it wasn't like BYU was just rolling over Kansas State offensively the whole game. But Oklahoma State is probably just as good at baiting Avery Johnson into a turnover as BYU.

My thing, Ari, is I wonder if Kansas State's going to figure out what they are offensively. Look at the Arizona game. Run the ball. you have the fastest quarterback in america you have a really good running back run the ball stop trying to be something you're not run it so much and so effectively that they are scared and put nine people in the box and can't disguise their coverages and then throw over top of them. But run the ball. Yeah, I think I'm with you with that.

We talked ourselves into Avery Johnson potentially being a trendy preseason Heisman pick. I think that we all thought that this was going to look a little bit differently than it's looked so far this year. But to your point, he rushed it 11 times for 74 yards in the loss to BYU, and they averaged five and a half yards of carry in the game, and they only scored nine points, and I don't think they scored a touchdown. So yeah, I don't know how you go from looking as good as you did or as exciting as you did against Arizona to laying a complete egg. But, you know,

it is also on the table, Andy, that in three weeks we're having a discussion about BYU being a contender to win the conference too. Like this is one of those conferences where you could have come into the year and made a legitimate case for 10 different teams in this conference to win it. So, you know, this is in a very important game for the conference race standpoint, but, you know, at the same time too, we could be three weeks removed away from it being Utah

and everybody else or everybody in the same, you know, kind of hodgepodge of teams together. Yeah. Everything under the umbrella, three loss, big 12 champion, four seed playoff team possible. Yeah, it's possible. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. I mean, I think you could probably make a case that, you know, I don't know if Utah is going to lose three times, but you can make a case that it's, it's more than possible that it could be semi likely. Yeah. And that's why we have this discussion and we will,

I guarantee you right now, I'm going to tell you, Andy, I guarantee you that we will be having a discussion in November about how the five seed has it the best. And there are people out there that think that the extra game, no matter who you're playing, uh, is worse than playing a good team in the second round. It's not around. Yeah. Cause the four seed is going to be misseeded and they're not going to be the fourth best team in the country. There's a chance they could be the 15th best team in the country. It's not the 5-12 game that makes the five seed the best. It's the 4-5 game that makes the five seed the best.

Some people think that because there's a chance of injury and wear and tear on the body that just having to play the extra four quarters against the group of five team is rough. I don't know if I agree with that, but I think I would rather play 12-5. I also think it matters if you had to play in a conference championship game or not, and we don't know that. Yeah, that's true. But yeah, so the Big 12 is competitive, it's exciting,

it's interesting, and it's interesting. And it's crazy. And it's already. And we got a couple more big 12 games to pick here that have even bigger spreads. I'm going to take Oklahoma state here. Yeah, me too. No question.

All right. Let us move on to the big 10, another conference game with a huge spread. Illinois at Penn State. Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite in this game. The last time Illinois went to State College, it was nine overtimes, and Illinois won. This is a little bit different situation. This is Penn State's first big test.

Illinois is coming off that big win against Nebraska. Ari, I have a very hard time believing that Penn State is just going to blow out Illinois I I like seeing Penn State winning I can envision that completely but seeing Penn State blow this team out now having watched Illinois against Nebraska and against Kansas like I I don't I don't think that happen. Yeah, I don't either. But I also am man enough to admit that I am uncertain of what Penn State is right now. Because on one hand, they open up the season on the road at West Virginia and just completely maul them.

And Drew Aller looks like a very improved, exciting new quarterback with Andy Kotelnicki, the offensive coordinator there. And then they almost lose to Bowling Green the following week. And then, you know, they play Kent State. So, like, which team is Penn State? Then, of course, West Virginia, too, has gotten off to a pretty rough start this year. So, Illinois might legitimately just be very good. Like, I was very impressed with Luke Altmyer on Friday night.

And I don't know what your thoughts were on that, but if they're able to go on the road and beat Nebraska on a Friday night game, they've already played on the road in a very excited crowd and a, and a tough atmosphere. It's not the same as Penn state, but at the same time too, it might be because I believe that this game is during the day.

And that was a night game at Nebraska. So they're primed for the, for the, this game is not during the day. Ari, this game is a night game at Nebraska. So they're primed for the atmosphere. Oh, this game's not during the day, Ari. This game's at night. Oh, it's a night game? Oh, it is? Okay.

Well, still think that they're going to be okay from a crowd noise standpoint, even though I think Penn State has the largest, most intimidating crowd that I've seen in college football. I don't know what the atmosphere is going to be like. But Illinois, I think we just have to start talking about, are you just a really good football team like i think that's a chance and they're just a really good team yeah you mentioned luke altmeyer another guy that's very impressive is pat bryant their receiver he's one of the best blocking receivers that you're going to see plus he can catch the ball and do some things with it i i just i i'm very excited

to see this Penn state offense against a defense that we've, we've seen have some success. I said, after the game, the Nebraska game, I thought Aaron Henry called a really good game, especially that overtime series. He was messing with Dylan Ryle, his head. Can he mess with drew Aller's head? Because historically drew Aller, if you pressure him is going to eat the ball and take the sack. Drew Aller does not put the ball in harm's way. So if you can get that kind of pressure against Penn State, you may have some serious negative plays that are going to help you down the road. So it's too many points for me.

Ari, I'm going to take Illinois to cover. I don't think Illinois is going to win, but I really feel feel confident in covering if you're going to give me this many points this day this game definitely could be tied or Penn State could be losing in the third quarter give me the point yeah yeah I just and and it's good I I think you might have it right I think Illinois might just be good and you know maybe we're wrong on this vegas certainly doesn't think so but i think we've seen enough to well i noticed on your on your bracketology this weekend didn't you have illinois as one of the first four out i did because it i mean look the results of the games have to mean something and you know you can say oh kansas has lost three games. I get it. They've all been nail biters, every single one of them.

I don't think Kansas is bad. Yeah. But the way I've been approaching it is I'm projecting what I think it's going to be, not what it looks like right now. And I'm not saying you're doing it – you're not doing it that way, but if you do believe that Illinois is good enough to be a – because when you're the first four out, that means you're like 13 to 17,

right? So it's not like you're, you're not missing it by one spot at number five. Like I still think that it's very legitimate to think that Illinois is the number 17 or 18 team in the country. Yeah. All right. I'm taking Illinois though.

Who you got? Illinois. All right. So both taking Illinois because the giant spread. We now move to a game that is, oh, so much angst. Two teams experiencing massive angst right now. Oklahoma heads to the Plains. First SEC road game for the Sooners. They are playing Auburn. Oklahoma is a two and a half point favorite in this game. Ari, you and I talked at length about both of these teams on Saturday night. Oklahoma, you saw against Texas, not blocking very well.

Changing quarterbacks. Brent Venables has said they will evaluate it. We don't know if it's going to be Jackson Arnold or Hawkins. Auburn. Well, Hugh Freeze just threw all of his quarterbacks under the bus. He doesn't like any of them. This is going to be wild. Andy, I'll line up for Oklahoma. You line up for Auburn. I'm a quarterback and we'll see how it goes. Listen, here's my thing. As mad as Oklahoma fans are about the state

of their offense, as unhappy as they were with what happened in the Tennessee game, they're going to be able to move all better on Auburn's defense. Look at what happened in the Arkansas game. Look at what Arkansas did. Arkansas, they hit a couple passes, but at the end of the game, they're just like, screw it. We're just going to ram the ball down your throat. And they did. Now, Talon Green and Jaquinden Jackson are a pretty formidable tandem running the ball. I don't think Oklahoma can run the ball quite like that. But I think they can run it enough.

And I think Oklahoma's defense is going to terrorize Auburn's offense. Could we have a real discussion here of this spread being way too small? I mean, I guess that's what we're doing, right? Like, yes, Oklahoma's defense is really, really good. Okay. Yes. I know they had a really rough night on Saturday night, and I know they gave up some plays to a really good Tennessee team, but I was very, I left that stadium feeling really good

about Oklahoma's defense and obviously that's what happens when Brent Venables is your head coach I'm not necessarily sure that I agree with what they did with Jackson Arnold I think when you make that decision you have to you have to live with it you know and creating a quarterback controversy or at least a quarterback discussion in the middle of the year probably isn't exactly what Oklahoma needed but from a whole top to bottom team standpoint like I think Oklahoma is unquestionably the better team here like I do not know how Auburn is going to score on Saturday that that's my that's my thing that's where I keep coming back to I don't think it matters anything else like Oklahoma's offense might struggle a bit but they are going like Oklahoma's defense

is going to force turnovers. I don't, I don't know how Auburn doesn't commit turnovers because they've committed turnovers against everybody else. And this defense is better at forcing them than the defenses they play. And Hugh Freeze isn't necessarily harboring a loving, let's repair this environment right now either. Like I am on high alert of implosion watch because you don't get up and throw your team under the bus the way that he did.

And then everybody goes to practice feeling good about where they're at. Like I know that Oklahoma also is in a tricky situation because what they do with the quarterback now is going to be a season-long discussion. I think we have to keep tabs on it. That's real. Even if Oklahoma isn't in the playoff mix I think that that's a very inherently interesting situation there again I cannot believe they did it but they

did so yeah I don't know if I love where Auburn is as a program right now so I like this this seems a small number to me yeah I will take Oklahoma to cover here. I'm happy to happy to do that. Even as a road dog, that is a, yeah, I just don't know how our scores and I don't know how Auburn does not serve it up to Oklahoma in some very advantageous situations. And you know that Hugh freeze with given the opportunity to choose of any of the four quarterbacks that have played with these two teams this year he's taking Oklahoma's to Michael Hawkins Jr. and Jackson Arnold over the two over his right yeah so correct yeah yeah I

think that Oklahoma their defense is really good their their line I thought did really well against Tennessee they have guys making plays. Peyton Bowen's amazing. They have the pieces. And I think not only are they going to win, I think they're going to win this game pretty comfortably. Let's stay in the SEC, Ari. A game that I think is going to be a little trickier to pick.

Arkansas against Texas A&M at Jerry World. Texas A&M is a four-and-a-half-point favorite in this game. I really don't know what to think here because I like where Arkansas is at. Texas A&M just had a tough game against Bowling Green. I'm kind of wondering, because Bowling Green did this to Penn State too. Are we going to find out in MAAC play

that Bowling Green's just good? It's possible, yes. But I still don't know if that's excusable for the two teams that had close games with them. No, I don't know if it is either, but I also know that Texas A&M was coming off the road win against Florida. They're probably not taking that all that seriously.

They still did win the game. Now they absolutely must take Arkansas seriously because you've seen them almost beat Oklahoma State. You saw them go to Auburn and win. The way they won in Auburn was very impressive. Auburn can beat this team. Like, you should be scared if you're Texas A&M. I just don't know.

I just don't know what happens here. Yeah, I have a hidden but not so hidden love affair with arkansas this year like i think that they are much better and i still don't know that they're getting the credit that they deserve and i think that if they wouldn't have lost to oklahoma state the way that they did think about the excitement they would probably be a top 15 team right now yes this is a good time for our victory lap too andy like we both called them money line uh last week we were wrong a lot but this game we got that one yeah we got that one and i think that it was because arkansas is better than they're getting credit for now this is a very

tough situation here like i don't know um exactly what texas a&m is do we know what they're doing 100 with their quarterback on Saturday? It's just like there's a lot of stuff that's up in the air. But Arkansas is a tough team, and like you said, their running back-quarterback combination is about as exciting of a pair as you'll find in the entire sport this year. Yeah, and it's interesting because we don't know what A&M is going to be. I think the assumption is if Marcel Reed is still playing, if Wegman's not back, that

you're going to be very run heavy. Now, the thing is, if Marcel Reed is the QB for Texas A&M, it's going to be a steady dose of him and Le'Veon Moss. They probably aren't going to do a lot of dangerous things. So Arkansas probably needs to understand that turnovers are not going to be as plentiful as they were against Auburn. And they better be careful because Arkansas made some mistakes in that Auburn game. Like at the end of the first half, the teams were just trading turnovers. And if you do that against A&M,

and A&M's playing the way they've played the last couple weeks, they're not going to just give it back to you. They're probably going to score some points. So you've got to be very careful there if you're Arkansas. Yep, and this is a neutral site game, right? So we don't have any Kyle Field. Yeah, this game's always crazy. I've been to it a few times in Dallas,

and it's just a crazy – there's always like a crazy turnover or a pick six or something. Like I'm excited for it. But four and a half points for an A&M team that may still be trying to figure out who it is seems kind of like a little bit, maybe a point and a half too much, two points too much. So you're going to take the Hogs? I think I'm going to ride the hogs i think i'm gonna ride the

hogs i mean i've picked arkansas in every game this year and i'm three and one yeah well are you three because didn't they cover against oklahoma state yes but they did not against uab oh that's right that's right they didn't cover against you i forgot about that okay yeah so ari is embracing the. I'm going with the Aggies in this one. I think they're pretty good. I think the Notre Dame game, they're going to kick themselves a lot over that as the year goes on. I will take the Aggies. Ari is embracing the Hog here. As an aside, Andy, before we move on to the next game,

if Reed plays and plays well, or if Wegman plays and doesn't play well and Reed comes in, are Texas A&M and Oklahoma like simpatico with their quarterback decision-making? I'm on high alert with what goes on in College Station, too, as they navigate the rest of the SEC schedule, because I know people in Aggieland are pretty excited about Reed's playmaking ability.

Well, that's the thing. If he's leading you to wins, there's a Wally Pipps situation in play here too. It may not be that Wegman's just an automatic you start him when he's healthy. He hasn't been lights out in his starts. He's shown glimpses of being very good, but he has not been the no doubt about it,

you're an idiot for even bringing up that that could be a thing right right it's not it's not like the texas situation where quinn ewers is going to be the starter when he's healthy and comes right it's a different situation so moving on to another game that when i saw the opening line, I was like, woo, that feels like too many points. And then they bet it further up. Colorado going to Orlando to play UCF. Opened at 11 and a half. UCF favored.

Now UCF favored by 13 and a half as we pick this game, Ari. That's a lot of points it is um it is people got absolutely rocked if they bet baylor on saturday and because it's one thing to give up a hail mary and i we didn't say this on the show but baylor's prevent last play of the game defense is called victory cigar did you see that I know if I were Dave Aranda I would never have admitted that publicly I can't why on earth would you say that out loud um and then on top of it the way that the game ended like you want to talk about being like a better and living through that if you were on Baylor money line in that game um but not to I just wanted to make sure we talked about on the show because I thought that was

really funny it was hysterical I mean we both have Travis Hunter as the number one on our Heisman ballots he's the best football player in the country who catches 130 yards worth of passes and then makes the most important defensive play in the game? There's nobody else who can do that. There's nobody else even close to capable of that. So absolutely, Travis Hunter makes a huge difference. I don't know what to think about this game because I think Colorado is going to be able to score on UCF. Now, there is a world I can envision where it's a steady diet of KJ Jefferson and RJ Harvey over and over again, averaging seven yards a carry until they hit a 65-yard pop pass on you, like over and over and over again. But on the other side, I can still see Colorado scoring enough to keep this interesting.

Yeah, 13 and a half is a lot of points, but like KJ Jefferson was put on this earth to play against the defense like this. Like if you have KJ Jefferson on your team, like if you're watching film as Colorado's defensive staff and they're like, well, if UCF decides to turn KJ Jefferson into a battering ram, like what are we going to do? I think that the answer to that question is you're probably just going to lose. So I don't know if I'd want to lay two touchdowns here,

but I have a really hard time envisioning a world where Colorado is going to be able to stop UCF. It might be long sustained drives, but I don't know how they're going to stop them. It's UCF stopping Colorado is my question. And I think UCF's pass rush is probably better than Baylor's. But is it as good as Nebraska's? I don't know. Yeah.

I don't know if they have anybody who can cover Hunter either. I don't think they can cover those receivers. I think they have to get Shador on the ground. I think that's the only way you stop that. And so, I don't know. Let me just read some stats to you. To further your point about UCF running the ball in this game,

RJ Harvey is averaging 7.6 yards of carry. Penny Boone is averaging 6.6 yards of carry. Miles Montgomery, the third back is averaging seven yards to carry uh kj jefferson's only averaging 4.7 yards to carry because sacks get taken out as well but good god they can just steamroll if they want yeah and this is and i'm sure you're on high alert of this uh but if ucf goes out there and takes care of business and wins by one, you have a really excited UCF football team that's pretty undefeated. And I like to say it like that, pretty undefeated going into Gainesville. So I'm on high alert for that, too.

I think it's too many points, Andy. My hope for Colorado is that they do something to slow this rushing attack down. But I do think that like big chunk plays in the passing game are pretty out there for the taking for them as well. Yeah. I'm going to take Colorado here. I don't know if Colorado is going to win this game, but if you're going to be almost two touchdowns,

I will, I will take the Buffaloes in this one. Yep. I'm with you. All right. Staying in the big 12, Arizona goes to Utah. The last time we saw arizona they were getting battered by kansas state utah goes to stillwater and went this is one re where like if i just go by what i've seen this year this is an easy one well maybe not easy

with the spread because i feel like the the line's too high utah is an 11 one. Well, maybe not easy with the spread because I feel like the line's too high. Utah's an 11.5 point favorite. Here's why I'm leaning Arizona in this game. Not money line. I don't want to go crazy. But if we just go by what the last game we saw of each team, you're like, oh, Utah's going to kill them easily. Arizona's not going to be able to handle them up front.

And Utah's just going to control this game. If Cam Rising's back, it's going to be even easier for Utah. Here's the thing. That Utah-Oklahoma State game is not easy on the body. Yep. The Big 12's going to go like this because you're going to have a great game, and then you're going to have a game that you're a little tired,

and the other team is coming off a bye week. That's what this is right here. If you're going to say Utah's got to win this game by 12 points, no thank you. I'll take Arizona. Especially when you could make the case that Arizona has a top three receiver in the country. Yes. It's really hard to cover him. I just don't know if Arizona's lines are up for the challenge in this game, Andy. And if your lines aren't up for the challenge, then 11 and a half seems big on paper, but it gets out of control really quickly. But if it's Isaac Wilson, are they going to score enough to do that?

You know, that's, I mean, it's the other thing, too, of like, is Cam Rising going to play again or is he redshirting again? I mean, look, we got to get him back out there you know what would it be yeah i mean is there any way that he can get another year of eligibility i don't even know yes he can't no no they've already said he can have next year if he wants and he said no i'm going to the nfl okay well he might be back next year i don't i'm not gonna I'm not going to roll my eyes up at the possibility of that. But, you know, I think that the Arizona thing is, you know, it's easy to be enthralled by Noah Fafita and T-Mac.

And I think a lot of people got caught up in that trap when they played Kansas State last Friday night. We watched that game, and they just weren't very competitive after the first few drives that they had. And, you know, I view Utah as a team that, you know, we watched that game, and they just weren't very competitive after the first few drives that they had. And I view Utah as a team that, I love your term, what they do travels, and they're not going very far. So I actually am not going to put my foot in the bear trap here. And I think it's very tempting, too, to be like, this is the Big 12.

It's going to get crazy. It's going to go off the rails. Teams are going to lose to teams that they shouldn't. 11 and a half. I understand the reasoning, but I think that Utah is going to be able. It's going to go off the rails. Teams are going to lose the teams that they shouldn't. 11 and a half. I understand the reasoning, but I think that Utah is going to be able to handle them pretty physically, and I think they will probably win this game by 14-ish points. I'm going to stick my foot in the bear down trap.

Give me Arizona to cover. Yeah. I've seen a lot of people stick their feet in the bear down trap over the years, bud. Trust me. I know. I know. I know. Very interesting game coming up.

Louisville at Notre Dame. Notre Dame is a four and a half point favorite in this game. They played this game last year. Remember, Louisville crushed Notre Dame in Louisville. Obviously, the teams are very different now. Two new starting quarterbacks. Different scenario. But Ari, I go back to a text I sent you in the first half of the Notre Dame-Miami-Ohio game when Notre Dame was really struggling to get on the board against Miami-Ohio.

I said, Notre Dame's going to win this game. They are not running the table. And that was the Miami-Ohio game. I don't think Notre dame's gonna win this game i think louisville's gonna come in there and beat them do you know what i was doing when you sent me that text i was driving from oklahoma city to norman i was not tracking the scores and when you sent it to me i looked at the score and i think they were losing three nothing in the second quarter they were yes and i just looked up to the sky and i was just like you've got to be kidding me like does notre dame only exist on earth to

embarrass me is that like what we're doing here like well i can't like how how can they what can they do differently to motivate the players for games like that because they they're clearly bad at that they're clearly bad at motivating them them for games where the opponent is not considered that good. Because they come out fine in the games that they're supposed to play somebody good. So, like, I'm not worried about Notre Dame just laying an egg in this game. I'm just worried about Louisville being better than them. Yeah. Well, that's been the whole thing, right?

Like, Notre Dame can't go undefeated they can't run the table because Louisville's on the schedule and then here we are like I said as Notre Dame's a four and a half point favorite at home like this is going to be a monumental test for Notre Dame in the sense of like are you going to have a pulse this year are you just going to lie down and lose to Louisville and have two losses in the first five weeks of the season? I am still worried about Notre Dame's offensive line. They lost two of their most important pieces on there, and they're still trying to figure out how to block for Riley Leonard.

But Notre Dame typically, and I know this wasn't the case last year, but in big games games plays pretty well. You know, they did a really good job of playing against A&M. And, you know, last year for the most part, I think that, you know, they're losing the games they shouldn't lose. They played up against Ohio State. Yeah, I guess. Yeah, they've had a little game was a body blow game

because they'd played Ohio State and they played the really tough game against Duke that they'd won. And then they got to Louisville and it was just like out of gas. And I know I'm wearing a white, I'm wearing a white hoodie right now. And I may or may not look like a marshmallow, but I'm not soft, dude. You think I'm, you think I'm going to pick against Notre Dame in this spot after what I've been talking all year? Yeah.

It's not even in my, I would rather lose picking Notre Dame than be right. Picking Louisville. Like that's where I'm at with this. Like there's no chance in hell that I'm picking against Notre Dame to win this football game by more than four and a half. None. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois on a block kick. Now, granted, that was a 62-yard try,

so obviously you are going with a very low angle to try to get some distance there. Louisville beat Georgia Tech by blocking a field goal, returning it for a touchdown. They probably would have beaten them anyway, but that sealed it. That turned the game, sealed it, ended any chance Georgia Tech had of winning. I like Louisville here. I'm tempted to go Louisville money line,

but let me just make it easy on myself and I'll take the points. Well, guess what, buddy? I don't care if they cover the spread. If Notre Dame gets a win here, we're back in business, baby. We're back on the polar express. I don't know what that means. I will take your word for it. I, I just, I don't trust him i i will not like you get put on old takes exposed and or freezing cold takes and double down i don't watch batman i don't watch batman but once he goes you're in the darkness but i was born in it like i'm born in the freezing cold takes yeah you're talking about bane what did he say you adopted the darkness i was born in it brother i was born in it brother yeah what happens if you take off your mask andy it'll be very painful for you well i i'm leaving it on i'm i'm breathing the louisville fumes right now because i just don't

i don't trust notre dame and they're going to have to earn my trust. This week could be a way to do that by making me look stupid, but they are going to have to earn my trust. Ari, we now move to the game. The game that everybody's been waiting for. The Georgia Bulldogs head to Tuscaloosa. Georgia, a two andand-a-half-point road favorite against the Crimson Tide.

You know what, Andy? You know what? I'm going to make this quick. I'm going to make this painless. I'm going Bama, and I'm going Bama to win the game. I have been saying all year, and people have been mad at me, but Georgia's lack of offensive explosiveness, the skill position player, scares the ever-loving crap out of me.

And playing against a team that has guys that will score on the road against an offensive coach who has proven that he always had, you know, something up his sleeve. I don't know that I'd like Georgia to win the football game. And I felt this way for two weeks, but I know we had a video about it on Sunday. I know we talked it through, but I'm not going to go against my gut here. Like my gut has been saying Alabama since the start of the season,

my gut changed a little bit after the Clemson game, but watching Georgia play the Kentucky team, I thought that that was more of an exposure of ailments on their team than it was just a sleepwalking game. Not that it should have been that close, but I think that you can see a route to beating this football team. And I think Alabama just has to hope that they didn't figure something out in the last two weeks.

But I like Alabama in the game. Well, let's workshop this. I'm going to give you a scenario that I envision. If Georgia wins this game, this is why. And then see if it alters your thinking at all. So before I give my pick. Tate Rattledge, Georgia's best offensive lineman, got hurt in a Kentucky game.

They had to shuffle some things around. Micah Morris, the guy who's replacing Tate Rattledge, has played some, but that group had not played together, really. They've had two weeks now to practice together. I think that makes a difference. Mikel Williams didn't play against kentucky we don't know where he's at for this game he had an ankle sprain early i believe in the clemson game but he's really really good yeah he's i mean game record game record yep so he may play in this

game that potentially makes a difference now i will say Caden Proctor had a really good game against Georgia in the SEC championship game. Probably the best game Caden Proctor played all of last season for Alabama. So maybe not, maybe that doesn't matter, but I think it matters. I think it will matter if he plays. I think we saw Wisconsin run the ball effectively against Alabama. I think Georgia can run the ball effectively against Alabama too, because Georgia's got a better offensive line and better backs than Wisconsin. Now I am with you in that. I don't know who the downfield threats are for Georgia.

Is it Donovan? You know, is it Dominic Lovett? Is it Colby Young? Is it, you know, can you get Ben Urosic involved doing some things that make him, you know, versatile? Is it Oscar Delp? We have not seen that yet. Alabama's not typically the kind of defense you kind of break out against. So that concerns me. But if Georgia can control the ball on the ground,

and Georgia's defense can make Jalen Milrow look more average, which I do think is possible. I think Wisconsin's defense made Jalen Milrow look like Superman. I think there's a chance that you can force Jalen Merle into some mistakes with a better defense. Georgia is that better defense. So, again, probably would help if Michael Williams plays. So does any of that change your confidence? Because you are picking Alabama with what I feel like is a very high level of confidence. It's really hard to be confident, really.

That was kind of a facade, picking against Georgia to win a football game. Like, what are we talking about here? You're like, hey, let me try to change your mind. Oh, by the way, two of the best players in college football, one got injured and one didn't play against Kentucky, and they have time to practice, but then like Mikel Williams is coming back. Of course that scares me. The guy's going to be a game wrecker in the NFL next year. Like, yes, I'm scared. I'm absolutely scared. I don't know.

I don't know, Andy. On the road, they're at home. they're catching two and a half i i think that they'll be able to score uh on this team and i just don't know if we're going to have or a georgia offensive flop is on the table here like i don't know if a alabama offensive flop is on the table here well i hope i was convincing because i was playing devil's advocate because I agree with you. I think Alabama is going to win this game. Okay. Woo. Woo. Yeah.

So at least, at least if we get roasted, we'll do it together. But you know, I just, my gut has been with Alabama since the beginning of the year, man. Yeah.

I know I've watched enough Georgia that like you just, you never, you're never going to dismiss Georgia out of hand that no matter the opponent. So it's entirely possible that somebody gets unlocked at Georgia, like one of the, one of the receivers or one of the tight ends, like they figure out, oh, okay, this is how this needs to work. And then all of a sudden there's nothing you can do. But I think Alabama is good enough to keep the score down in this game. And Alabama is more dynamic. Producer River is asking, do we do we want to take the points or do we dare go money line on this?

Money line. Agreed. Money line on Alabama. I can't wait for this game. It's going to be like, this is a night game. Like our shows right after this game. It's going to be amazing.

We got, we got the appetizer on Friday night and we're bookended by 24 hours of just amazing football. We got Miami on Friday night. Then we get this game at night. And I'm going to have the screens. I'm going to be home this weekend, which is going to be weird. It'll be my first time this year watching games from home.

But I'm really, really looking forward to it. David in the chat, y'all about to look so damn stupid. It happens. Well, this is like we just both picked against Georgia. This is like when we both picked against georgia this is like when we both picked against alabama in the 2021 sec championship game we made it into the hype video and then alabama killed georgia so yeah oh jonathan in the chat kirby is nine and one after a buy-in 27 and three with more than a week to prepare well they don't play alabama after all those buys that's the difference this is not just any opponent and i say that on both sides like for for those of you who agree with us that

we think alabama is going to win this is georg. This isn't just any opponent. We can very, very easily be wrong here. Absolutely. Absolutely. But Lori's right. Lori is the one person everybody can agree with. T-Town will be lit. Tuscaloosa is going to be unbelievable. I want your tweets and videos from Innisfree

and all of those other places on Friday night. I just want to see what it looks like. I'm an old guy. I can't do that. I can't handle that anymore. But send it to me. Let me live vicariously through you. I want to soak it in.

Cannot wait. It's going to be so good. All right. Tomorrow, we have a very interesting quarterback conversation we started to have it today but it needs time to breathe how do you handle it and i can't wait to read your column about it i can't wait to read your column about it yeah i am about to finish that so you can read that later today and on three and then tomorrow we will talk about what happens when you got a young qB and an old QB.

It's not an exorcism. Sometimes you got to make a choice. That's not always going to work out. We'll talk about all of that tomorrow.